Fantasy Football Today - 05/27: Things We Could See Happening in 2019 ... (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 28, 2019

We start the show with some fun emails including a bold prediction about Saquon Barkley vs. Miles Sanders (1:30), a question about pairing WRs and QBs (4:30), how to draft with a Top 3 pick (7:50), the best Game of Thrones football name ever (13:00) and an extremely optimistic take about the BAL offense (13:30) ... News and notes (22:00)! Should we be concerned about an Ezekiel Elliott suspension? Is Keke Coutee in line for a big role? ... Five things Adam could see happening in 2019 (28:00): Leonard Fournette's carries, Aaron Rodgers' production, Julio Jones' TDs, Juju Smith-Schuster and Barkley potentially struggling ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Tuesday, May 28th. What's going on?

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Oh, I am like a kid on Christmas morning. Or not Christmas morning. What am I talking about? We'll tell you in just a little bit. Adam Azer here with Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg. Are you guys as pumped as I am? As good of a mood as I am? Yeah, sure. As good of a mood as we can be in in late May when we're talking about fantasy football, football in general, Christmas movies in general, yes. Yes, we are in good spirits.

All right, great. So today on the show, I'm teasing something. We're going to talk about something that we're doing later in the week that I think everybody's going to be really excited about. We're going to read some emails. The emails have been great lately. Fantasyfootball at CBSi.com. Very good stuff. Helpful stuff. We're going to read some emails. The emails have been great lately. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Very good stuff. Helpful stuff. Going to read some. I've got five things that I could see happening this season, like Leonard Fournette leads the NFL and carries. Things like that, we'll talk about it. Five things I could see happening this season. I'm sure

they won't happen, but I could see it. And a lot of news and notes to get to as well. Let's start with some emails. All right, this is from a Giants fan. Not me. Adam. No, not me. Suburban New York City. Miles Sanders will have more yards per carry than Saquon Barkley this season.

Sanders is playing behind an elite offensive line. Defenses won't be able to stack the box against him with Carson Wentz throwing the ball. It could. I don't think that means that he's going to be a better fantasy running back than Saquon Barkley. Pretty sure I'm going to draft Saquon Barkley ahead of Miles Sanders in every single format that exists. But yeah, Miles Sanders getting around 4.6 yards per carry while his former college teammate gets around 4.5, 4.4. No big deal. Sure. Okay. That was Ricky, by the way. Ricky the Giants fan. Oh, Ricky.

Yeah. Good friend of mine. Do you know the top five guys in yards per carry last year? Phillip Lindsay and Aaron Jones were one and two. Well, are you doing by a minimum number of carries? Yes, but I don't know what the minimum is. Because some guy might have had like a handoff. Well, Brandon Bolden averaged 11.4. Justin Davis was at 9.5. D'Angelo Henderson was at 9.5.

If you're looking for a minimum, let's say 130 carries. Okay, whatever Aaron Jones had. Yep, Aaron Jones was 5.5. Was he 1 or 2? No, he didn't meet the minimum. Lindsay was 2 at 5.4.

And Breida was 3 at 5.3. You're going to let me guess? Matt Breida I never would have gotten. Okay, so who's four? Minimum of 133 carries. I'll take Barkley. Barkley, no. Barkley, as I said. Was at 5.0.

5.0. I will take... Oh, no. Nick Chubb was fifth or tied for fourth. Alvin Kamra? No. The guys that are tied are four and five would be Gus Edwards and Nick Chubb. Gus Edwards?

He had that many carries? The Gus boss. Gus Edwards had 137. Wow. In five games. Chargers actually did very well. Austin Eckler and Melvin Gordon Eckler did not qualify on 106 carries

But he averaged 5.2, Gordon 5.1 Really? That's interesting Because Eckler wasn't really that good When Gordon was out No, but he had a lot of long runs When Gordon was in Remember the Justin Jackson touchdowns Against the Chiefs, or just one touchdown

That was so exciting Here's an email from Brennan. Brennan, by the way, like, stepbrothers. You hear Brennan, it's just stepbrothers. Your name has been forever ruined or made by that movie. Dear Leo, Mike,

Donnie, and Raph. Well, they're sort of stepbrothers. They're all the Ninja Turtles. Heroes in a half shell. Turtle power. How do you feel about targeting a quarterback based on your wide receiver one? Like grabbing Roethlisberger or Winston if you took Juju or Mike Evans?

I know it works well in DFS for maximizing upside. Would you apply this strategy to a redraft league? I don't hate it given the right offense. Especially if you can fall into it more so than target it. You're getting those quarterbacks late. Most, most of the time, you know,

it's, it's not going to work with just based on the job. I mean, I shouldn't say it could definitely work, but you have to invest a lot of draft capital and getting Kelsey and Mahomes, for example. Right. It's almost like Rogers and Adams, Luck and getting Kelsey and Mahomes, for example. Right. It's almost like...

Rodgers and Adams, Luck and Hilton, those scenarios. But why do you have to do that? Why not the Jameis or Roethlisberger route? Well, I'm just saying, in terms of targeting those specific combos, if you're doing these, you can make it work easily because Roethlisberger is going to fall now and Winston, nobody is looking to target. So you can certainly make this work. Do you want to make it work easily because Roethlisberger is going to fall now and Winston nobody is looking to target. So you can certainly make this work. Do you want to make it work?

Are you more or less likely to take Jameis Winston if you drafted Mike Evans? I'm going to take the best quarterback that I think is available at the time when I'm looking to take quarterback. I'm not going to worry about if I have one of the receivers or say I have to have that guy because I have the receiver. So if it works out that way, I'm fine with it. Remember, you're most likely starting – well, you're definitely starting two receivers.

In some cases, you could be starting five. So it shouldn't make you afraid to take one of those guys because even if the receiver has a bad day, your quarterback should still have the opportunity to play well if that's the guy you like and he has other weapons on his team. I don't think you want to do it with Mariota and Corey Davis. Yeah, I wouldn't do that. What about Josh Rosen and Devontae Parker?

Same. No, you don't want to do that. No. All right, here's an email from Chris from your own backyard, Deerfield Beach, Florida. Oh, Jamie. I think it's Charles. What did I say?

Chris. I said Chris? Oh, because he said Deer, Hemsworth, Evans evans and pratt i feel like those are chris's probably it's charles jamie you were in deerfield yesterday right i was oh charm city it was great great burger what'd you get what'd you get i just got a good old the good old But it was delicious. Yeah, one of the best burgers I've ever had. I had the Impossible Burger over the weekend. How was it?

Dave was right. It basically just sort of serves. It just tees up the rest of the burger. The cheese, the sauce, the onions, whatever you have on it. The patty itself was fine. I was pretty neutral on it. I guess I'd get it again to save the environment, but it really just, the burger was totally made by everything that was not the patty. You're saving the environment or you're saving the cow? The environment. I am the cow. So the whole premise behind it is, not the whole premise, but part of it is that cattle is very bad for the environment.

So this allows us to eat meat or something that's supposed to taste like meat in a more eco-friendly way and also save cows. I'm confused. Yeah, no, it's because cattle give off CO2 or something like that. Google it. Here's the question. Does Chris from Deerfield have a question? Charles. Or are we just going to talk about cows now?

You draft in one of the top three picks. You have a top three pick. Debate on whether you go two running backs and a wide receiver or two running backs and a tight end. Which strategy would you choose? Why does it have to be two running backs? It doesn't. This is just Charles' strategy?

No, we're forced to debate it now. So you take your side. Well, I mean, look, if this is what Charles wants to do, I don't know if you want to pigeonhole yourself into that, though. That's the problem. Well, you're most likely going to take a running back first. So you're coming back in round two. I'm still in the mindset of best available player with a lean toward tight end in that spot.

And then round three, it's best available player, period. I can't commit to taking two running backs and one other position there. I think the thing you're going to see is early round three is going to be most likely Kittle. Just based on the drafts I've seen, the drafts I've done, and based on the consensus rankings, Kittle slips to early round three. So that's the guy you have to be comfortable with if you're going that route. The receiver that you're probably looking at is somebody of the group. And there's no format right no so the the receiver group is probably somebody of ty hilton aj green maybe keenan allen if it's non-ppr um amari cooper could be maybe one of the vikings guys if somebody goes if there's a lot of big run on receivers

especially ppr so you have to be comfortable with that receiver. I'd rather take a chance on Kittle. Same. And the other part of it, though, is the second running back you're looking at because that's the group of – could be Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette. Maybe if we start to get a lot of people panicking on Gurley, he falls that far. It's honestly third pick. Okay.

If you have a top three pick, let's just say it's three. And then it's a 12 team league and you come back and you now have the 22nd pick. It's not necessarily a great running back spot. If Mixon, Chubb and Cook are all, Mixon will be off the board.

I was looking at draft results here where Mixon went really late, but if Chubb and cook are all mixing will be off the board i'm looking at draft results here where mixing went really late but if chubb and cook are off the board you know carry on johnson um but he's not doing that around too right so i actually don't think running back running back is great necessarily there you can you can find chubb and cook in that range that's about the you know if you're not a four-neck guy. But maybe, maybe. Like, they might be off the board. But then there's so much talent at receivers. Yeah, yeah.

That should be available, too. So let me say. Or maybe Ertz. Let me say this. If Kelsey's available, it's a no-brainer. Right? He won't be. Most likely.

But in some drafts, he will. You never know. Sure. What about, so we didn't talk about Ertz. Are you assuming Ertz is before or after Kittle? No, Ertz is in the round two range. Ertz is going to be somewhere between 20 and 25. Kittle is going to be somewhere between 25 and 30.

Yeah, I – gosh, what's the drop-off from Kelsey to Ertz and Kittle? Because, like, Kelsey is a no-brainer there, but Ertz and Kittle are not. In that 25 to 30 range? Well, they are – Or 20 to 30 range? Like, they are no-brainer there, but Ertz and Kittle are not. In that 25 to 30 range? Well, they are. They are. 20 to 30 range? They are no-brainers to go there. But whereas if I'm lucky enough to get Kelsey at 22 overall,

yeah, it's an easy call. If I'm at 22 overall and I'm comparing now Ertz and Kittle to T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, it's tougher. What's the format, though? Because I think that matters. Why? I almost don't think it does. Yeah, why would it matter? You just have to have the mindset of wanting to almost reach for the tight end there

and to take whatever's best available in round three. I would almost certainly go receiver, though, if I go tight end round two. I know Ertz and Kittle have to go in that range. It's just a tougher call when you compare them to those other wide receivers, whereas Kelsey will be off the board at that point. But yeah, I don't think you shouldn't pigeonhole yourself to taking two running backs with your first three picks if you have a top three pick.

And let me just tell you, based on our most recent draft, if you waited until round four to take your second running back, you could be looking at... Are you looking at a 14-team one if you're looking at the latest one? No, our latest 12-teamer. It is non-PPR, so that might mean...

Our latest 12-teamer was a PPR. It doesn't matter. The May draft that we did, the May magazine draft. Okay. That's PPR also. Oh, it was PPR? Mm-hmm.

Okay, good. Well, thank you. Then we're on the same page. Derek Henry, Tariq Cohen, Kenyon Drake, Mark Ingram, Chris Carson. Yeah, those guys. James White. Those guys could be available to you as a second running back. Late round four, early round five.

Devante Freeman was mid-round four. You probably won't get him. All righty. Next email is from Peter from a North Bay, California town. Benicia? Yeah. That's exactly right.

Benicia, maybe? Subject line. Benicia del Toro. Most Game of Thrones football player ever. And then he attached a screenshot of Donora Searcy. I was looking through

some old player news and it caught my eye. I'm pretty sure he should be getting some royalties from Game of Thrones. His name is practically Daenerys Searcy.

That's awesome. Yeah, it's very funny. Thank you, Peter, from North Bay, California. And finally, email for now. We have more later.

Tim L. from Beemore. Hey, Mark, And finally, email for now. We have more later. Tim L. from BMORE. Hey, Mark, Lamar, and Robert. Those are members of the Baltimore Ravens. That is true. I know us Baltimore-ons have said this before, but the Ravens are the most slept-on offense in the NFL. There's no question about our running game. It'll be second to none.

You guys saw what Gus Edwards did with a mid-season offensive playbook overhaul. Imagine what Mark Ingram can do with a running offense designed for Lamar's speed to take the pressure off of Ingram. I understand he's 29, but he has always been part of a committee and has no signs of slowing down.

Speaking of Lamar, he's going to torch any defense he plays this year. Most of the National Football League media are writing him off already because he's a running back or defense he plays this year. Most of the National Football League media are writing him off already because he's a running back or saying he can't throw. He will have a full year practicing as the QB1. He took a team that was 4-5 to 10-6, only losing to the Chiefs. And actually, he has decent wide receivers this year.

We've seen quarterbacks blow up in their sophomore seasons like Mahomes, Wentz, and Goff. And Lamar Jackson is the advantage of a totally new offensive playbook. Receivers are still a wild card, but how much worse could they be? Hollywood literally has wide receiver one in his DNA. That's right, he's Antonio Brown's cousin. Snead is Mr. Consistent, and Mandrews

started to show his big play potential. Don't sleep on the AFC North champs. That's Tim L. from BeMorePS. Been listening to the show for five years. I love it. PSS. That's actually L. from BeMorePS. Been listening to the show for five years. I love it. PSS. Diehard is a Christmas movie.

It's a pretty good email up until that point. But it's fun. Fun Baltimore. I've never heard that before, actually. He makes some very good points. The fact that Gusus edwards was able to have an amazing rushing average as we unearthed earlier on today's podcast should make you optimistic about mark ingram who's not your typical 29 year old running back he's got

he should have some tread left on his tire i want to go back to what lamar jackson did late last season when he when he had the chance to be the every down quarterback for the Ravens. His fantasy point totals, this is six point per passing leagues, 15, 22, 16, 21, 18, 17, and then in week 17, 26. And sure, some of those numbers you'd be very happy with from your QB1, but I think we're trying to get more than 20 and more than 22 and maybe even more than 25 from our quarterback on a week-to-week basis. If you're telling me that this offense is going to open up a little bit more and have more design throws that Lamar Jackson can make with routine consistency, I'd want to see that before I believed it. And at that point, I would move Lamar Jackson into more than a late round flyer in my rankings.

So I agree on the running game. I think Mark Ingram shouldn't be touted as, you know, old man River playing running back. Although I do think he will lose some carries both to Jackson and Justice Hill and maybe even Gus Edwards. But I'm not ready to commit to Lamar Jackson as anything more than a guy to stash at the beginning of the year just to see what happens. He's a great number two quarterback to buy into just because if he does hit in his sophomore campaign, if he does get the production from these receivers,

that I think is going to be the difference in how he plays as a passer because I don't think his rushing is going to be that much. His rushing total is going to increase that much because he was very good once he got the chance to be the starter and how he ran the ball. Offensive line is still a little bit of a question as well. Mark Ingram has already talked about that. It's going to take some time for him to know them, them to know him, just the whole group in general.

But I think Jackson is going to need Marquise Brown to have one of the better rookie campaigns to help his fantasy production. Right now, he's still dealing with that foot problem. Who is the rest of the receiving core in terms of their starting options? Is it Chris Moore? I think Snead is kind of penciling the slot option. And like, what was the Baltimore on's name? The Baltimore on is Tim.

Tim. And I don't mean that as a slight. I was just using what you said. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, he's a consistent receiver, but he's not a dynamic playmaker. and I don't mean that as a slight. I was just using what you said. He's a consistent receiver, but he's not a dynamic playmaker. Mandrews did show some big playability, but is he going to be a consistent threat at the tight end spot or is it going to be Hayden Hurst or could it be both of them

to help Lamar Jackson, not necessarily what their individual fantasy value is. In the last draft that we did do, which was a 14-team league, Heath drafted Ben Roethlisberger and Lamar Jackson. I think it's a great combo. If you get a guy that should be a consistent veteran... No, we didn't think that was such a great combo, if I recall. No, he drafted Roethlisberger too soon. I like the combo. I don't know. I would like my number one to be better than Roethlisberger. Yeah, but in a 14-team league, that's not a bad set of quarterbacks. And again, Heath likes Roethlisberger. So if you're taking somebody that's not a bad set of quarterbacks. And again, he likes Roethlisberger.

So if you're taking somebody that's at the tail end of the guys that you like and you're pairing him with somebody that does have a ton of upside, I think that's the best way to approach your quarterback spot if you're taking two guys. I still would like better than Roethlisberger, but I see your point. So let me just say a couple things here. If you took Garoppolo and Jackson, that's probably not the best combo because of injuries,

but in your case, you like Garoppolo. Yeah, I would take Cam and Lamar Jackson. Like if you took Garoppolo in Jackson, that's probably not the best combo because of injuries, but in your case, you like Garoppolo. Yeah, I would take Cam and Lamar Jackson. Okay, perfect. So, yeah, okay, so Lamar Jackson, we really should also look at what he did in six point per passing touchdown, and four point, sorry, four point per passing touchdown. Obviously, his value is going to be different.

He started seven games at the end of the year. In five of those seven games, he was between 15 and 17 fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues. Let me just see kind of what an average was. Yeah, honestly, not that good. And then he had two games that were better, like a 22 and a 26er.

But the Ravens, in his seven starts, averaged 25.1 points per game. If they had done that over 16 games, that would have been good for 11th in the NFL, tied with Houston, right behind Atlanta. The other thing to keep in mind is only once all year did they play a team twice, and that was in the playoffs. They played the Chargers, and the Chargers pretty much shut them down at least for three quarters.

Final score ended up being 23-17 Chargers. Thank you for the email, Baltimoreon. You mentioned Die Hard is a Christmas movie. You're wrong. But, okay, I got to give all the props to Dave. This is what I've been teasing. Dave has lined up the greatest interview that we'll ever have.

You could tell me, hey, you could interview this guy or Peyton Manning. And I'd be like, let's interview this guy. I couldn't be more excited, Dave. Who is coming on our show this week? It's Peyton Manning. The writer of Die Hard, Stephen D'Souza,

will be joining us. He's written a lot of other movies, too. I figured once and for all, it's time to end the debate that we started almost a decade ago on this podcast and uh mr de souza will will join us and we will ask him and he may even cite examples of why die hard the movie he wrote he wrote is a christmas film or he's going to admit that it isn't a Christmas film. I'm not sure which way this is going to go.

I'm pretty sure I know which way. But he also wrote some other action classics. He wrote Commando. He wrote Running Man. Street Fighter. He wrote some great lines. He wrote Street Fighter. So I can't wait.

We're going to air it as a separate bonus episode on Friday. If you have no interest in it and you just want to hear about fantasy football, please feel free to skip it in the feed. But it's going to be a fun interview. I think it'll be really – like this guy's going to have great stories about not just Die Hard, but like he's worked with the best of the best. He's worked with Van Damme and Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

I mean, he's going to be amazing. And he seems eager to come on our –. He seems excited about coming on our show. So I think we could really have a lot of fun with this, and I can't wait. That's going to be an interview we do tomorrow on Wednesday, and it will air on Friday in our podcast feed separately. Also, other podcasts. We've got a ton of them. The Pick 6 podcast is hilarious.

Check it out. It's great football stuff, and we've got golf, and we've got MMA wrestling boxing, and we've got golf and we've got mma wrestling boxing and we've got college football college basketball go to cbssports.com slash podcasts to learn more we also are revealing the top 150 players in fantasy football next week is going to be the week where we version 1.0 of the top 150 so just for all, we're doing five shows next week and we're doing 30 players per show and it's just going to be

sort of like quick hitter, kind of get an introduction to these guys with a little bit of debate here and there. We'll see how it goes. I actually don't exactly know how it's going to go down,

but we're doing that on the podcast and also on CBS Sports HQ. So make sure you listen to the show and make sure you watch CBS Sports HQ, which is free on the CBS Sports app. Time net, which, by the way, I watch on my Roku. If you have a connected device, over-the-top device, watch CBS Sports HQ.

All right, it's time for some news and notes. Lamar Jackson not pleased with his throwing. We just talked about him. Jerry Jones doesn't think Ezekiel Elliott will be disciplined by the NFL after he was handcuffed but not arrested in Las Vegas. Is that something we should be factoring in right now, a possible suspension? I don't think so, but put it in the back of your mind.

I think for Jerry Jones to say that there isn't potential suspension, that should tell you what you need to know. No, it tells me nothing. Why? Because he was all saying that there was going to be no suspension two seasons ago, and Zeke got suspended six games. Jerry Jones is in la-la land. Well, I mean, he's sticking up for his guy.

Yeah, fine. He wasn't arrested, so keep that in mind. Yeah, right. I know. But he wasn't charged in the six-game suspension case either. Sure, but at least there's video evidence of what he did, and I don't think that the NFL is going to rule in suspending him. But I could be wrong. Alex Smith was throwing at Redskins camp.

Are you going based on just the photos that the Redskins leaked out? I think a story I read that said he was throwing. Yeah, the pictures didn't show, I think, his lower half, which I think still has some stuff on his legs. Oh, yeah, yeah. He's going to, I think, be almost like another coach for Washington's quarterback

group. You got some interesting guys that are getting first-team reps. Seattle wide receiver Jerron Brown getting first-team reps. Yeah, I'm going to write a story about some of these receivers that have an opportunity. Jerron Brown and David Moore for Seattle are a pair of guys that with doug baldwin gone they'll compete

for playing time um i still like david moore a little bit more but the fact that seattle's using jerron brown in that spot could tell you how they feel about him uh but we kind of touched on this last week it's guys like chris conley demarcus robinson um you know dave mentioned one davante parker you know guys that have... Really? Devontae? Absolutely. Oh, all right. I mean, if he gets a chance to new regime, new fresh start, new quarterback, look, don't buy into the preseason hype.

Don't draft him with any sort of valuable pick. But these are guys that you could be looking at off waivers once the season starts, that if they have one or two good games of quality production and certainly quality targets, they could turn into something. Deshaun Watson said he needs to get Kiki QT the ball. Yeah, he said that he was really impressed with how QT was moving during OTAs. Like a player who knew where he was supposed to go in his routes, wasn't thinking as much, was running free.

Usually when you see that from a receiver, production will follow if given the opportunity. So this is a big nod for QT. He's got to stay healthy. Only played six games last season. Three very good ones. Three where he coupled and finished. It's one of those situations where Bill O'Brien, two separate occasions when I was around him, the combine and at the owner's meetings, you know, kind of gave those angry but not angry statements. You know, you read between the lines.

Like what? Basically, stay healthy, you know. Right. Well, the – Like we can't have him keep leaving the field for soft tissue injuries. Sure. For hamstring. QT said that he was so focused on draft prep, running the 40 and doing all that,

that that's when he started to hurt himself last offseason, and now he's preparing for football and that injury is behind him. So hopefully that's the case. That's a nice late-round receiver, especially in PPR. I don't know. I can't imagine it would impact Hopkins much, but I could imagine it would impact Fuller, and I really like Will Fuller like a ton.

Yes. In our latest PPR draft, 12 teams, he went 75th overall, and QT went 148th overall. So, you know, basically... Good value on both. Twice his team. Yeah, yeah, I would say so. Teammate strategy?

Friendship strategy? Perfect, yes. QT will go higher, though, I think, once we get closer to the start of the season, especially in PPR. Jalen Samuels could have a role in the Pittsburgh offense. Do you buy that? Because Pittsburgh is always a one-running-back team.

Role in terms of getting a couple of touches per game, sure. And it could be more catches than carries. Remember, as much as like, I mean, I don't know if I'm the Vance McDonald guy, but I like McDonald. Samuels played tight end in college. So they could use him in sort of like that hybrid type role. And H-back, as it were.

And good reports so far on Devontae Freeman and Sammy Watkins, two guys with a ton of talent that are consistently battling injuries, but right now they look good and they feel good. Fournette as well. Three guys that got good, glowing remarks coming out of OTS. I didn't include Fournette in this section because he's headlining the next section, which is five things that I could see happening in 2019.

We're going to get to them right after this quick break on Fantasy Football today. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook Born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play.

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I could see it happening. Decent chance. think he plays 16 games it's a realistic possibility you know i mean you look at the teams that are going to be run heavy for the most part there's not just one guy there in this case i think he's clearly the guy i don't know if they're gonna you know lean on alfred Blue or Rock Armstead to the point where Baltimore will with the group of guys they have in particular, or Tennessee even with Deion Lewis sharing with Derrick Henry. Teams that are going to be – Seattle, Chris Carson is going to share with Rashad Penny. I mean, it wouldn't be surprised if Fournette were talking about a year from now

the curse of 370. John DiFilippo said during his press conference during OTAs last week that the team is looking for a third down running back, which kind of took the wind out of my sails because I think Fournette could handle that. I think he's a good enough pass blocker and receiver out of the backfield where he could play that role. They probably just need a running back to take some snaps off of Fournette

over the course of the season. But if they insist on having a separate player working the third down, then that's going to hurt the upside of Fournette's touches. I don't know if I agree with that. I think I do because they'll only catch a couple of balls a game. I mean, he's going to be a 40 to 50 catch guy tops. He's not going to be a 70 catch guy. And they'll still throw to him enough. I mean, basically his rookie season, TJ Yeldon played as a third down guy.

Five of his last six games last year, he had at least 14 carries. Four of them, at least 18 carries. Yeah. In a perfect world, does he average around 18 carries per game? No. In a perfect world, he averages 20, which is what he averaged in 2017, I believe. Yeah, 20.6 carries per game. And look, if you look at the game log, right,

he comes back from injury. Injury first half of the season, just couldn't stay healthy. Comes back from injury weeks 10 through 12. You're talking last year? Yeah, last year, Leonard Fournette. He gets 24 carries, 28 carries, and 18 carries in those three games. And in the third game, he got ejected for fighting at Buffalo. And then he got suspended.

And then when they brought him back, they really just didn't commit to Fournette in his final three games. He was on the poop list at that point. So he has to get back in their good graces. They obviously have to be a better team and not be playing from behind. But I do think that Jacksonville wants to be among the league leaders in carries. And I think Fournette could be, even if he's a 30-catch guy, in his rookie season he was on pace for about 45 catches over 16 games.

He only played 13. But he averaged 20.6 carries per game. I really think he could average 20 to 22 carries per game. It wouldn't surprise me. The question is, if he does do that, is there any chance that he stays healthy? You could argue no. Well, it's just a matter of everything that he's tried to do this offseason, which all the reports, again, are went to Wyoming to train to get away from any distractions.

He looked in the video of him doing an interview last week. He looked to be a little bit more chiseled. I think a big part of this also is the offensive line last year was a disaster in terms of injuries. Center, left guard, left tackle, all suffered serious injuries. They get all three of those guys back. Plus they add Juwan Taylor to the right side as long as his knee is right, which I'm assuming it's going to be. You know, now that has a chance to be one of the better offensive lines in football if everybody's healthy. You know, if Norwell gets back to the level he was at in Carolina and Linder's one of the better centers and, you know now that has a chance to be one of the better offensive lines in football if everybody's healthy you know if norwell gets back to the level he was at in carolina and linder's one of the better centers and you know between cam robinson and um uh and taylor now at the tackles you know there's a lot of talent there so uh plus you have what should be an upgraded quarterback at foals

over bordles and foals apparently is dealing with a personal situation uh he left otas um for for personal reasons. And Doug Marone said today, our thoughts and prayers are with his family. So I'll extend the same thing from us. Hopefully everything's okay with him. But as long as he's right and this offense looks better, Fournette should be fine.

All right, next up. Things I could see happening in 2019. Aaron Rodgers drops out of the elite tier. For the record, I could also see him winning the MVP. But... Oh, God. Good prediction, Adam. Well, look...

He might be terrible or he might be the greatest. No, no, he won't be terrible. But last year he played 16 games and he was the number seven quarterback in four points per passing touchdown leagues, number nine in six points per passing touchdown leagues. You know, his last four seasons, he really hasn't been aaron rogers you just look at yards per attempt you look at passer rating

he looks like somebody's on the downside of his career he played through a fractured leg and a sprained mcl last year um one of those four seasons that i mentioned was the one without jordy nelson where he just really struggled. He seems to get hurt a lot. So there are excuses, and not just like, you know, what a stupid excuse. Legit excuses. And we see Aaron Rodgers. We see the plays he makes.

He still looks amazing. But there's really no denying that statistically he hasn't been the same player, and in fantasy he hasn't been the same player basically for the last four years. Except for 2017, he was amazing. 16. Three of the last four years, though, he's been a bust. Well, two of those years, injuries were involved. Injuries were involved, but he still played 16 games.

In the last four years, he only missed time once. He played seven games two seasons ago. Yeah. Right. So, yeah, I don't know. You know seven games two seasons ago. Yeah. Right. So, yeah, I don't know. Here's the thing. They really still haven't done that much to get him a number two wide receiver. I know we're excited about Geronimo Allison,

and they drafted a tight end, but they didn't... I mean, they drafted three guys last season. But they didn't draft him that early. And I'm not sure how good those guys are. So, I just don't... You look at their receiving core. What is it? Would you say average?

Yeah, but they've got a quarterback that can make them better than average. It's hard to say average when you have one of the best receivers in football. Best quarter. And one of the best quarterbacks in football. That's the thing about Aaron Hodges. They also went out last year and signed Jimmy Graham. I mean, say what you will about Graham, but they did try to get a guy who's coming off a Pro Bowl season. So maybe they've tried, but they've

failed? I don't know. I think, you know, you have a new voice, which I always like when there's talent, and I still think that there's plenty of talent in Aaron Rodgers. I look at Adams, and I think I would say it's an above-average receiving corps, because I do think that Jeronimo Allison's a good

player, and I do think that you're going to get one, if not two, of the young guys step up to the point where they're good threes and fours or a good three and a good four. I think the tight end group will be better with Sternberger once he eventually gets going, if Jimmy Graham does in fact make the final roster. I also think that Rodgers has something to prove, which take that for what it's worth. He's my number one quarterback this year. That's, you know, factoring in my home,

not having Tyree kill. If Tyree kill plays, that'll change. But, um, I, you know, maybe I'm getting, uh, uh, caught up in, in what, you know, speaking to Devante Adams, you know, this off season and how he kind of said that Rogers has this chip on his shoulder to kind of prove he's still a guy. And I, I lean toward what you said, Adam, uh, the other kind of said that Rodgers has this, you know, chip on his shoulder to kind of prove he's still a guy. And I lean toward what you said, Adam, the other side of things that he could be the MVP this year. Yeah, it's probably more likely. He still runs the ball a decent amount.

And yeah, he did play through injury. So he's QB three right now in the fantasy pros consensus rankings. I just think that his passer rating the last two years has been 97.2 and 97.6. Now, when we were growing up, that was amazing. That ranked 13th last year among

starting quarterbacks. It's just interesting. The stats kind of tell you something that I don't think our heads really say. I think we still know he's elite. All right, fine. That's number two. Number three, things I could see happening this season.

Julio Jones catches 12 touchdowns. Stop laughing. There's no laughing. I know. The problem is that we could see that happening almost every season, and then it doesn't because in the past he's been forgotten about in the red zone teams try and take him away in the red zone and it opens up other players last year they started to get him more involved and it paid off this is the offensive coordinator

and dirt cutter that has gotten julio to double digit touchdowns before and i i think atlanta's in line for a big year offensively, especially through the air. I think Matt Ryan's going to have the best protection he's ever had. Calvin Ridley in his second season, I think he could be even better, not necessarily score as many touchdowns, but just be a better part of that offense. And the more that they can do to diversify, a good running game,

Austin Hooper taking a step, Muhammad Sanu moving the chains, it'll all help in Julio Jones getting free just a little bit more often from double coverage and opening the door for him to find those 12 touchdowns. 12 might be probably the most optimistic number you could put on Julio, but he's still going to be outstanding and people are going to draft him appropriately as a top three receiver.

It's two years in a row where he's been involved in the red zone. 17 to 19 red zone targets. A good number. Not going to lead the league, but it's certainly a good enough number. I don't know. It just seems like one of the weirdest, unluckiest statistics that this man just does not get touchdowns yet.

Andre Johnson, same thing. Yeah, but could you blame the quarterback for that with Andre Johnson? You blame a lot of things for that. But you can't with Julio. It's team Sheldon taking away. You can blame the quarterback. Not that Matt Ryan's bad.

He threw touchdowns last year. He just threw them to Calvin Ridley. Whereas it's not like matt schaub or something okay uh two more things i could see happening this season juju smith schuster struggles with double coverage as the steelers have their worst offensive season in years yeah the steelers need to prove that they can do what Atlanta did last year and find that number two guy to fear. And you've got to give the Steelers as a franchise credit. They've been able to do that time after time after time.

Well, they also failed a lot, too. I mean, they've drafted a receiver almost every year. But I can't remember the last time they had one good receiver and they couldn't find somebody else to get numbers out of. Have they ever had? No, before Juju. But they always had Le'Veon Brown and like Emmanuel Sanders. Martavis Bryant, but they also always had Le'Veon Bell.

Right. Not that Connor was some slouch in the passing game. But he's no Le'Veon Bell. Yeah, look, last year, week 17 was a struggle for that offense. Now, we have pretty much no sample size to go on. But they couldn't really move the ball. And I think Juju caught a touchdown in that game, but it was a struggle.

Let's see the final stat lines. Five for 37 and a touchdown on 10 targets. And that was without Antonio Brown. There have been very, very few games of Roethlisberger without Antonio Brown. So I don't want to just take one game and say this is what's going to happen, but I could see it happen. You know,

because it happened with Alan Robinson, right? He had that pretty epic year and then got a lot more attention the next year. It hasn't been the same since. So just saying. Sure. I'm worried about how they'll stretch the field and whether or not James Washington, Deontay Johnson,

those guys can actually be downfield threats that'll force the safeties to play back, that'll force defensive coordinators to play back that'll force defensive coordinators to play more zone than man i mean that's the kind of thing that's really helped ben rothlisberger go is having somebody that can catch those deep passes but it wasn't no brown and you know what you saw it in in his numbers if you take away his touchdowns and you look at his receiving numbers they were as low as yards per catch yeah the last six years. Sure. And he was running over the middle a lot more. He was running

shorter routes than last year. But they were also still taking some shots downfield, whether it was with Washington on occasion or Brown or Juju. I'm wondering if this offense is going to be, you know, culled to be inside of 20 yards with no

deep throws. I think that that it puts Juju in the I need 175 target box in order to come through on where we're drafting him. OK, when are you guys comfortable taking him? And they're on one round two. And where is he in your rankings? Top. He's top. in your rankings? Top. He's 13th overall. That's all positions for me in PPR.

And 16th in non-PPR. Okay. Would you take Beckham or Juju? I'll go Odell. I'll take Juju. More targets. All right. Last one that I could see happening.

Saquon Barkley. Remember the bowl prediction we had at the top of the show. Saquon Barkley rushes for three and a half yards per carry in his final eight games with Daniel Jones at quarterback. Don't be ridiculous. Don't be ridiculous. Because Eli has at least three years left in him. It's true.

He'll play every game, and that way Saquon will average 3.9 yards per carry with 16 games of Eli Manning under center. Yeah, but in case it wasn't clear, final eight games of the season, Daniel Jones takes over, and then Saquon Barkley rushes for 3.5 yards per carry after rushing for

a very solid 4.6 yards per carry in the first eight games with Eli Manning. I can see it happening. So I think the fantasy-relevant angle here is like the top picks in the fantasy drafts. Does Saquon Barkley have the most downside out of Barkley, Zeke, Kamara, McCaffrey? What do you think?

Barring injury? Yes. He might. I mean, just because of the lack of talent around him. Right. But I think the offensive line could be really good. Yeah. It made me too.

But that is an interesting take, right? I mean, you wouldn't normally see the running back in. They scored more points than the Cowboys last year. Definitely not the Saints. I don't know about the Panthers. But I would project the Giants to have the worst offense of that group of four. Especially no Beckham for the full season.

You wouldn't normally see the running back in a below average offense going number one overall. Yeah, but I think really McCaffrey, if Cam's not there, that's still not a good offensive line.

Well, but he is there. No, but if the shoulder's bad. So that's the downside for McCaffrey, you're saying? The injury risk of Cam? Yeah, I mean, look, if Cam has Andrew Luck's situation where he's just

not right and they put him on ice for a season, how comfortable can he feel with McCaffrey? The Panthers did average barely more points than the Giants last year. They were 14th and 16th in scoring, respectively.

And that's why I think Kamara... You know that they're scoring points. How could he have a bad year without getting hurt? How could Alvin Kamara have a bad year? New center, though. Young center. Yeah, that's true. But are people taking Kamara number one overall?

Are you seeing that a lot? No. Yeah, in the one magazine draft that he went first overall in PPR. Yeah, and I would. I love him in PPR. I think he's going to have the chance to catch more passes than last year. And I think he might get more carries. I think it's going to be a little bit better.

Carries, yes. I'm not with you on the catches, but I think Jared Cook being there is going to hurt him. What did he have last year, like 82? Eight of the K? Yeah, Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara? 81!

Come on, Acer! You are better than that. All right, that was fun. 81 catches, almost 1,600 total yards, 18 total touchdowns, 18.3 touches per game. Yeah. Which is actually low compared to a lot of the other elite running backs.

And he had a 15-catch game without Mark Ingram. His catches in four games with Ingram, 9, 6, 15, 5. It's kind of weird, though, because it's not like Ingram was catching a lot of passes. All right, guys. So that's it for my fun little segment. Thank you for letting me wrap. And we got some emails to finish the show. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com.

One more quick break. Be right back to read your emails. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially,

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so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. All right, here we go. Email from Matt Zimer from Manitowoc, Wisconsin. Did I say any of that right? I got Matt right. It's either

Zimer or Zimer and Manitowoc. Okay. Todd Gurley, what to do? This is continuing our conversation from last show. Someone offered me David Montgomery and his first and second round picks next year in my Dynasty League for Todd Gurley. The first round pick will probably be top three for sure. Would you give up Todd Gurley for David Montgomery and a first and second round pick in next year's Dynasty draft? So 2020, let's say 1.3,

which would end up being probably 2022.3. Yeah. And David Montgomery. It's a pretty good haul. Okay. That sounds like a yes. I would, if you can't find anything better than that, then sure. Okay.

For the record, Sean McVay said, I guess it was over a month ago, but he said it, that he still expects Gurley to be the focal point of the offense. He's also said they're going to use more two-back sets. I don't think... Which statement is true? No, I think they're both true. They're both? Right, sure.

You could still have Todd Gurley be your lead back while using two-back. Sure, but your lead back, what Gurley has been, or your lead back of a committee? I mean, committee... There's no doubt they're going to watch Gurley's reps. Even if his knees are fine. I still think on a points-per-game basis, Gurley is going to be elite. How many games, though? That's the problem.

Yeah, that's the issue. I don't really care about them working the other guy in. They're going to have a high-scoring offense. He's going to get the touchdowns. If you're the Rams, and you're looking at your team, and you say, especially come once they get through minicamp, and you're like, wow, this Henderson kid's really good, and Malcolm Brown's a good backup,

let's put Todd Gurley on the pop list to make sure he's right. So when's the right time to pull the trigger on a deal for Gurley? When you get a great offer, obviously. But I don't know if this qualifies as a great offer. I think it's fine. In Dynasty, it's a very good offer. If you're trying to get rid of him and you're just scared to death about the knee, this is an offer you take.

If you kind of want to wait a little while longer and shop him around a little bit, you know he's probably not going to participate much in training camp. You're definitely not going to see him get any carries in the preseason. Maybe right before training camp is when you really

lock in a deal. But you take until then to find... The problem with that is, though, that you're also losing out on somebody who's still excited about Gurley. Well, I think people are going to have the same interest level in Gurley between now and then, unless there's news that comes out. Yeah, but dynasty trades are

happening now. Alright, guys, I've got to move us along here. Tim from Lone Tree, Colorado. That sounds like a very nice place. I'm going to Google image it. Oh, a lot of sun. Dear Marshall, Ronnie, Donnell, and Rashad. Those are San Diego State running backs.

I think I've only got two of them. Which two do you have? Falk and Pumphrey. How do you not have Rashad Penny? I don't know. Who's Ronnie? Hillman. I'm drafting eighth in a 12-team PPR Keeper League. After removing the projected kept players,

I'm looking at Julio Jones, Joe Mixon, or David Johnson with my first-round pick, and then either Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, or Leonard Fournette with my second pick. Would you pass on Julio to lock up a more prolific running back? Would you take basically... If you take Julio, you're going to have to maybe settle? Would you take basically when you know if you take Julio you're going to have to maybe settle for Fournette or you

can take Mixon or David Johnson and then get Mike Evans or Antonio Brown. What would you guys do? And he's got Ertz, Watkins, and Darius Geis already on his team? Yes. Those are his keepers? I would take that. So he definitely

needs a running back. So he's got Watkins and Geis. He has a lot of security there with those positions. Right. I take Mixon. Do you go best player with Julio? Mixon for me. In a vacuum, I'm taking Julio, but he's got Geis.

If I knew for sure that Leonard Fournette would be there in round two, I'd have no problem taking Julio in round one. I don't know. I'd like to know what Fournette would be there in round two, I'd have no problem taking Julio in round one. I don't know. I'd like to know what other running backs might be there just in case Fournette goes ahead of him. But if I know that I'm starting my team with Julio, Fournette, Ertz, Watkins, and whatever we get from Darius Geis, I think that's a good start. Jamie? Just given his roster, I probably would take David Johnson

and then be very happy with Mike Evans. All right, this is Ben from a city southwest of Hawaii. Whoa. That's tough. Perth, Australia? Okay. Hey, 13, 86, 99, and chief. Sounds like get smart, according to Google.

Ben says, I'm in a league which only gives points for touchdowns, field goals, two-point conversions, safeties, and extra points. All scores are worth their point values. Which positions should I be prioritizing and who should I be moving up on my lists? Do kickers and quarterbacks now have way more value? Oh, this is Ben from Brisbane, by the way. So you were close. Okay, only touchdowns, field goals, two-point conversions, safeties, and extra points.

No yards. What would you do? Quarterbacks have value because they have more touchdowns, but that goes across the board. I'd look more for... The kickers wouldn't add any value to me. I don't know if I would rush to take quarterbacks earlier in the draft, save for maybe the ones that I think have a chance to get close to 40 touchdowns.

Okay. It's a strange league. By the way, Lone Tree, Colorado is absolutely gorgeous. I will be vacationing there. Is it better than Sleepy Hollow in New York? Yeah. Yes. All right.

Thanks to Dave and Jamie. We'll be back on Thursday and then on Friday with Stephen D'Souza. Na, na, na, na, na, na to Dave and Jamie. We'll be back on Thursday and then on Friday with Stephen D'Souza. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na.