Fantasy Football Today - 06/04: Minicamps Begin; Gurley Regression? (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 4, 2018

Ready for a random WR debate? Let's get it going with Jarvis Landry vs. Marvin Jones (1:50)! Then we tackle the four teams that are opening up minicamp this week. What are the Fantasy storylines for CHI (4:00), DET (6:35), MIA (14:36) and NE (17:35)? Does CHI have more offensive upside than DET? ... Putting Todd Gurley under a microscope (24:48). Could things actually get even better this year? Why is Adam leaning toward taking Le'Veon Bell ahead of Gurley in PPR? ... Advice for untimed drafts (37:58) and how QB rankings change when passing TDs are worth 6 points instead of 4 points (42:55) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Adam and Jamie back at you here on the Fantasy Football Today podcast.

Mini-camps are opening this week for four teams we will talk about that jamie is so excited about today's show that he literally fell out of his chair i did um it was amazing i am uh i'm doing this show with you from home because i have i'm on daddy daycare for a good portion of this week. I'll actually be at Dolphins minicamp as they open on Tuesday. But in the midst of Adam and I doing our sound check, I turned funny and fell out of my chair. Yep, it was amazing. We got that classic Jamie Eisenberg laugh. I'm glad he was laughing at himself.

It was wonderful. I'm just glad that Dave and Heath are not on with us. Oh, God, it would have been amazing. Anyway, our email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com fantasyfootballatcbsi.com We'll read plenty of your emails. No voicemails today. Probably do that on Thursday.

954-689-3199 954-689-3199 So yeah, the Bears, the Lions, the Dolphins, and the Patriots opening up minicamp this week. The rest of the league will wait until next week. We'll give you a fantasy storyline. Jamie and I actually guest-hosted the Pick 6 podcast and talked regular football yesterday, and we're doing the same today.

We are interviewing Cowboys wide receiver Deontay Thompson. So please check out the Pick 6 podcast for the Jamie and Adam episodes and the other episodes that we're not on because it is an awesome show. Let me start with an email. We got a lot of emails today. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Shane in Richmond. I don't even have time to waste with a cute intro here.

This is too important. I hope you're all on today. We're not. My friends and I are just like the four of you. We sit around all day every day and talk fantasy. And then very rarely we record these extremely important thoughts onto a podcast. But enough wasting time. There's a great debate to be settled.

Folks, it's simple. Marv or Jarv? Marvin Jones or Jarvis Landry? Jamie, Marv or Jarv? What's the scoring format? It's a big difference. It really is, yes. We'll do all three.

We'll do non-PPR, half PPR, and PPR. Non-PPR, it's Marvin. Half PPR, it's Marvin. Full PPR, it's Jarvis. Jarv. Marv, Marv, Jarv. Sorry. I think Jarvis Landry is going to struggle a little bit with the move to Cleveland. Not from a catch standpoint, but just from a yards and touchdown standpoint, which has typically

been the case for him prior to last year. Right. I also think Marvin Jones is going to struggle a little bit just with a full season of Kenny Galladay. I think Marvin Jones is fine. I just think he's going to struggle a little bit just with a full season of Kenny Galladay. I think Marvin Jones is fine. I just think he's going to be a little bit overrated. Yeah, Marvin Jones, nine touchdowns last year, third most among wide receivers, which tells you a little bit about the wide receivers last year.

But, you know, nine touchdowns is a lot. He caught four the year before on a very similar number of targets. He caught four the year before that. Three years in a row for Marvin Jones with 102 to 107 targets. And his touchdowns in those three seasons are four, four, and nine. So the nine feels a little high. And the funny thing is, same thing with Jarvis Landry, right? I mean, his targets have been a little more all over the place, but his touchdowns last year, nine touchdowns, that was a big surprise.

So Jamie's going to go Marvin Jones, Marv over Jarv in non-PPR, in half PPR also, and in full PPR, we're going to take Jarv. All right, we're starting minicamps. Give me a fantasy storyline for each minicamp. For the Chicago Bears, Jamie. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to be a sleeper fantasy quarterback.

I mean, this team has a bunch of storylines. Trubisky, Allen Robinson. What'd you say? You asked me for one. Yeah, I know. I know. I'm just saying this is a fun team. It's a fun team. Wild card. It is.

I believe, speaking of the Pick 6 podcast, I believe our buddy Nick Costas has gone on there with Will Brinson and said that he thinks they're going to make the playoffs this year. Yeah, we don't agree. No, but I think they'll be in the mix. I think we talked about this on our version of the Pick 6 podcast. I think they could be 7-9 to 9-7 in that range, which is not a big range, but it'll put them in the hunt. The problem is the division is so good in the NFC North if Aaron Rodgers is right.

But they have the Rams blueprint if you want to follow that. And, you know, second-year quarterback who takes the leap under a new coach that's more offensive-minded. You have to like the moves that they made. I think we've talked about this with Eli Manning with the weapons he has and where he's expected to

finish as a fantasy quarterback. We like Allen Robinson. I don't think you look at any of our rankings, myself, Dave, or Heath, and see him. He's right in the 15 to 20 range, I think, for all of us. We all like Trey Burton as a breakout candidate, you know, sleeper, whatever you want to label him, but, you know, someone with a lot of upside. And we've talked about the upside of Anthony Miller, along with what Tariq Cohen could be out of the backfield.

If you were to say this is where Kirk Cousins went, we'd be like, wow, great opportunity. It's a good situation. What's your guess on the backfield split? I think if things go right for them as a team, defense is sound, and that I think is where the biggest issue lies. But if the defense is sound and they're in games, Jordan Howard's going to be great. If they're chasing points a lot, then he's probably not going to be so safe

because I do think that they will use Tariq Cohen as a Darren Sproles, Theo Riddick, Duke Johnson type of running back. You've heard Matt Nagy say that he has Tyree Kill type ability, where they can split him out, they can use him in the backfield, they can do different things with him. I'm taking Jordan Howard most likely in the third round in non-PPR and fourth round in PPR. And Tariq Cohen is one of my favorite sleepers to get mid-round pick. Give me your Detroit Lions minicamp storyline.

I mean, it's the great phone call we got from last week, Kerryon Williams. Kerryon Williams. And Kerryon Johnson be that guy that they've been hoping for in the backfield. You know how I feel about it. I'm going to take a chance on him. I'm not sold completely, but I do like the opportunity because I don't see it as anything different.

You could debate the talent of the two players, but as what Royce Freeman is walking into, as what Ronald Jones is walking into. It's a chance to be a starter, and in the Lions' case, I think behind a very good offensive line. So if Kerryon Johnson is right, and we've had some emails, some tweets in regard to our conversation that we had the other day where I think the pro-SEC Auburn faithful are very much in favor of Kerryon Johnson taking advantage of the opportunity,

but he's got to stay healthy. Injury track record is something I think you've got to keep an eye on. And then you have the – it's Detroit. They've tried this again, and I referenced this on the Pick 6 podcast. Dave Burkett of the Detroit – I think it's the Detroit Free Press. I don't want to say the wrong newspaper, but one of the Detroit writers is definitely Dave Burkett of the Detroit, I think it's the Detroit Free Press. I don't want to say the wrong newspaper, but one of the Detroit writers is definitely Dave Burkett. Wrote a whole sort of recent history of the Lions running backs. And Javid Best, Mikel Ashore, Amir Abdullah, they've tried over and over and over again with rookie running backs, and it's failed.

And if you're of that belief that they're going to continue to fail, you stay away from Kerryon Johnson. But round six, round seven, where he's falling, I'll take that all day. I don't care. I'll take my chances on what he could be. Dave Burkett is a Lions beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Well done. Is that what you said, right?

Yep. Yeah, good job. You're the man. I want to talk Marvin Jones versus Golden Tate. Is this a very similar answer to Marv versus Jarv? Marv versus Gold? Yeah. Yes.

But I think you've got to look at Marvin Jones. PPR is where it's the closest, but I think you still take him in all three formats. Really? Yeah, I mean, you can certainly make the argument for Golden Tate. But is he going to be more than an 80-catch guy, 85-catch guy? Is he going to get back to being 95- make the argument for Golden Tate, but is he going to be more than an 80 catch guy, 85 catch guy? Is he going to get back to being 95 plus? Who, Golden Tate? I mean, he's got four straight years with Detroit with 90 or more catches,

90 to 99 every year. Yeah, I guess he's probably safer in PPR. I should probably reevaluate that with my ranking. Yeah, he gets about 1,000 yards. I mean, Marvin Jones will be what, 65 catches? Right, he's really 1,000 yards. I mean, Marvin Jones will be, what, 65 catches? Right. He's really a bad catch guy. He had 61 last year.

And the thing is with Marvin Jones, he's a big yards per catch guy. So those guys are often much worse in PPR. Jones was fourth in non-PPR, 11th in PPR last year. Golden Tate was 29th in non-PPR. He was 13th in PPR last year. So they were very, very close in PPR, and they were not even close in non-PPR. But like I said, the touchdowns were way up for Marvin Jones. And as you've pointed out a lot, the best production for Jones came without Kenny Galladay. And just to put the actual numbers to it, Marvin Jones got off to a slow start.

Kenny Galladay was playing. Kenny Galladay then got hurt. Marvin Jones, his last 11 games, he had 47 catches for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns. His 16-game pace in those 11 games would have been 1,334 yards and 10 touchdowns. A massive year. Now, some of that was with Galladay. Galladay missed five games. So there were a lot of that was with Galladay. Galladay missed five games. So there were a lot of good games for Marvin Jones with Kenny Galladay healthy,

but three of his four highest yardage total games were without Kenny Galladay. So, yes, it is true that Marvin Jones did do well with a healthy Galladay at the end of the year, but it is also true, as Jamie has been pointing out, he was crazy good when Gallaudet was hurt. And I think Gallaudet himself, Jamie, is an interesting training camp storyline here, because he's kind of an afterthought right now. Well, I'll add two things to that. One, that the Marvin Jones scenario you just laid out, which, again, is what we talked about, is very similar to Juju Smith-Schuster. How Smith-Schuster performed without Antonio Brown and without Martavis Bryant for the one game. The other part of it, though, which is a little bit of a wild card, which could help Gallaudet, could help Jones, could help Tate, could help all three, is Eric Ebron's gone.

And their tight end position right now is not exactly sexy. You know, Luke Wilson, somebody that they brought in to potentially be the starter there. We know what he's kind of been. He's, you know, been the backup in Seattle for several years, you know, prior to Jimmy Graham, through Jimmy Graham. You know, he's just not been that typical or prototypical, you know, elite level pass catcher. He's more of a combo tight end. He can play in line and be a good blocker. So they could certainly use a lot more three wide receiver sets,

and Stafford, if the run game is helping, play action, those three guys could all have a lot of single coverage. So I don't think it's – you don't write off Marvin Jones. You don't write off Golden Tate. And I'm looking at my PPR rankings. I had them back-to-back, so I'm moving Tate up as we speak because that was a mistake on my part. But I think there's an opportunity here for all three guys to be successful. It's just a matter of where you're drafting them.

And like you said, Gallaudet is an afterthought. He's a great late-round pick just because if he can be that red zone threat that they've been lacking since Calvin Johnson left, it could be a good situation for him, a good situation for this team. Just to wrap it up, kind of a random thought. So I think that if you're going to ask me who's going to have a better offense, the Lions or the Bears, okay, the Tigers, LOL, Wizard of Oz joke. The Lions are the, thank you, the Lions are the easy answer, I'd say. But who has the most offensive upside? I think it's the Bears.

I think they have more explosiveness on their offense. And that is something that might be missing from the Lions. I don't know that they have, you know, like Golden Tate's fast, he makes people miss, but he doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. Allen Robinson is something that, the potential of Allen Robinson is something that the Lions just don't have. And maybe Tariq Cohen as well. I think the Bears have more offensive upside than the Lions, Jamie.

If you're going to go with the optimal situation for all of them, clearly the difference is Stafford, I think, would have to fall on his face for Trubisky to be better than him. See, well, I don't know about that. I mean, Trubisky was a former number one overall pick. He's Goff, right? I mean, we make the comparison. Number two overall pick. Sorry. Well, Carson Wentz was number two overall pick, so good pedigree.

Stafford was number one. Stafford, yeah. It's been a long time. But they both have pedigree. I know. It wouldn't shock me in the same way that Jared Goff was so good last year. Like, Stafford is – he's Stafford. You know, he's a – he's steady Eddie.

I mean, again, I'll say the same thing I said on the Pick 6 podcast for anybody that's listening. Again, he's – some people would put him in the category of elite depending on how big your elite category goes. I think he's in the very good category. He's never really going to hurt you. But he's not Aaron Rodgers. So I think, again, if Trubisky takes that big of a leap, then the Bears offense is going to be really special. That's the one difference for me because run game should be in favor of Chicago.

Again, that's the quarterback situation reversed. If Kerryon Johnson takes the leap and is better than Jordan Howard, then this team could be special. Receiving core, again, if everything goes right, the Bears should be better than the Lions just because, like you said, Allen Robinson, what he's done in one year, none of the Lions receivers have been able to do yet. And Anthony Miller is a little bit of a wild card

because while Kenny Galladay showed some flashes last year, the expectations on him are not the same as what's been put on or what are going to be put on Anthony Miller just because he was a second round pick. Yeah, and Trey Burton also helps the Bears. Okay, let's go to the Dolphins. Minicamp storyline for the Dolphins. A lot again, but I think the biggest one from our perspective is who's the number one receiver. And so I have requested with the media relations department of the Miami Dolphins to speak to both

Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson. I do not expect after the local hubbub that arose yesterday in Miami with Devante Parker that he is probably going to speak to the media. So I'm not even going to bother asking if I get him, I get him. I don't know if you're aware of this, Adam, what happened, but a former colleague of ours, Ethan Skolnick, actually two former colleagues of ours, Ethan Skolnick and Chris Whittingham, they have both started a local Miami podcast. I think it's called the Five Reasons Podcast, something along those lines.

I apologize to Ethan if he's listening and I got that wrong, but it's a local Miami podcast. He had Chris Chambers, former Dolphins receiver on, and Chris Chambers recently in the Miami Herald and then on this podcast ranked the Dolphins receivers going into minicamp. And he put Devontae Parker third. And Devontae Parker subsequently tweeted, nobody cares what he thinks. So the Miami Herald picked that up. The local affiliates picked that up. So Parker, I guess looking down upon what would probably be the second best receiver for the Dolphins since Dan Marino played. And as we established yesterday, it's 19 years ago, not 28 years ago. So Chris Chambers, who runs a local training facility in Miami, has reached out to try and help Parker and anybody that's followed our podcast knows that we've especially you and I have you know been kind of waiting for the

Devante Parker breakout and we've been disappointed time and time again and now Heath Cummings of all people who has trashed Devante Parker has kind of taken that torch and run with it thinking that this could be the year and it very well could be yeah and right so Chambers apparently said that he did try to reach out to Parker to help him out, and Parker has not responded. And then Parker says he doesn't care what Chambers says. Like, if you're going to say – okay, if somebody were ranking the four of us on a podcast and they put me last, I wouldn't be like, well, I don't care what that guy says. I'd be like, yeah, well, everybody else on the show is great. I got great teammates.

That's what Devontae Parker should have done. I should be in PR, Jamie. I should be in PR. I think it stems from the Miami Herald article, which I don't necessarily know fully off the top of my head. But I think it was a similar comment in there, too, where he kind of downgraded Parker. And he might be a little bit – who knows what the conversations have been in trying to get him to show up to his facility. But it is interesting that Devontae Parker is worried more about that than his performance on the field. I agree with you. He should have just said, yes, Kenny Stills could be the number one guy.

Yes, Albert Wilson could be the number one guy. But this is my time to prove that I'm better than what everybody thinks I am. Okay, let's go on to the New England Patriots. For the record, I think it's Kenny Stills. You do? Yes. I mean, he's been very to the New England Patriots. For the record, I think it's Kenny Stills. You do? Yes. I mean, he's been very good the last two years. He's been overshadowed by Jarvis Landry, rightfully so.

But this could be, you know, hopefully his time to shine. Are there any Patriots running backs? Obviously people are going to be worth owning. But as you see it right now, do you think there will be any Patriots running backs worth starting? This is our New England minicamp storyline. At what point in the season? Most of the

season, I'll just say. Yes, as a flex. That's the weasel way out. Okay, you're right, but that's fair. And it's who? It's Sonny Michel? It would not surprise me if it's Rex Burkhead. I mean, you're right, but that's fair. And it's who? It's Sonny Michel. It would not surprise me if it's Rex Burkhead.

I mean, you look at what the stats were when Burkhead was healthy before, I believe, the second injury last year, right before Deion Lewis had that monster finish. He was taking away touchdowns. He was being used as a secondary option, but it was frustrating a little bit for Deion Lewis' owner. Extremely. For the Deion Lewis owner.

Extremely. I mean, that's my biggest concern with Sonny Michel. Me too. Is the goal line work. This is the one team where I really think that they are so old school they have a goal line back. And you look at Deion Lewis, he scored three rushing touchdowns in the final three games of the season.

Rex Burkhead missed all three of those games. And that was so annoying for Deion Lewis owners. I don't know what kind of role. I apologize. Rex Burkhead, he missed two of those games. He may have left the Pittsburgh game with an injury, but he had already scored a touchdown at that point. Yeah, I don't know what kind of player Sonny Michel is going to be with them. I don't know how many passes...

Here's the one difference, though. I was just looking at the size difference. Deion Lewis is 5'8", 195. That's his listed weight. Yep. Sonny Michel is 5'11", 215. Yeah. So I don't think he's going to necessarily have to come off the field in that regard, but is he as skilled a pass catcher as Burkhead, where he can stay on the

field in that regard? I hope so, but I don't know for sure. And how will he do in pass protection? Oh, that's probably going to be an issue at first. Typically is. And I think there was also, Dave tweeted something, that I think there was a report that Michelle's having some fumble issues in OTAs, and we know how that goes with the Patriots. Well, but once they get to the deflated balls, he's not going to fumble.

Sonny Michel or Kerryon Johnson? I've gone back and forth. I think I moved Michel up a little bit higher because I think that there is the chance that the ceiling is higher for him just based on what we saw from Deion Lewis. If he can get those 200, right around 200 touches. LeGarrette Blount, as much as I do like Kerryon Johnson, LeGarrette Blount's presence makes me a little bit nervous about Kerryon Johnson

and subsequently Kerryon Williams. But based on value, you're seeing Sonny Michel is probably like a fifth-round pick right now. Again, I'll take Kerryon Johnson two rounds later. If you missed our last podcast, we know that Kerryon Johnson's last name is Johnson. Not everybody does. All right, here's our second email of the day. Email of the day number two is from Craig. And you have to be a diehard listener and Twitter follower to remember this one.

Craig asked us for help naming his baby, and he gave me four options, I think, and I did a Twitter poll. I know Hudson was one of them. I know Axel was one of them. Craig went with Axel. He wanted everybody to know. Heath's point about the growing popularity of Hudson, coupled with Adam's Twitter poll results, sealed the deal for Axel.

So, Craig, congratulations on the baby, on baby Axel, named by the Fantasy Football Today podcast listeners. That's awesome. And also, we had a greeting on our last show. It was like, deer, elk, something, something, bear. And I was like, can you eat bear? Or Heath said that. And Craig says, yes, you most certainly can eat bear.

Aaron Rodgers dines on bear twice a year, and it's a staple in my home state of Alaska. That's what Craig says. Would you ever eat bear? No. I would eat bear. I would try it. No, you wouldn't. Yeah, I would. Not if it was topped with bean boozled. It would, no. Or beans

in general. Beans are just disgusting. Oh, what was the thing you had to do the other day? You had some food challenge? Oh, yeah. I have to eat Peeps. They haven't come yet. It turns out you can't just What was the thing you had to do the other day? You had some food challenge? Oh, yeah. I have to eat Peeps. How'd that go? They haven't come yet. It turns out you can't just go to the store and buy Peeps when you're nowhere near Easter. So I had to order them online.

Gotcha. Hopefully I'll be able to do that tomorrow. They are truly disgusting candies. But this is actually for the Fantasy Baseball Today listeners, but I'll just say it here. Go to omahasteaks.com, type in FBT in the search bar, and check out the unbelievable deal we have for you. You want to feed like a family of 80 for $50?

omahasteaks.com, type FBT in the search bar. You'll see. good Father's Day gift Alright, news and notes, this one's not really fantasy relevant But Zach Miller, Bears signed him to a one-year deal Hope to see him back on the field I did not mention this But Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski Will report for mandatory minicamp

And Detroit running back coach David Walker Thinks that Kerryon Johnson can be a three-down back Okay, so we didn't talk about that in the whole mini mini camp storyline segment. Yeah. I don't know, man. They got goal. They got a theoretic for a reason, right? They do.

But look, if I, I'm trying to think, um, for net last year, right. Was not viewed as a pass catcher and ended up with 36 catches. I think it was mid mid-30s. Did he have that much? Which, okay. There was a stretch toward the end of the season when he had like... Yeah, 36. Six of seven or five of six games with at least three catches.

Yeah, right at the end. That's good. And so can Kerryon Johnson do that? And I'm not talking about being Leonard Fournette as a rusher, but can he be three catches a game? Theoretic is, I think, who he is. He's a guy when they're chasing points and when they're in extreme, obvious passing situations,

he'll be on the field. But I'm sure, ideally, they want Kerryon Johnson on the field as much as they possibly can. Remember, as much as we could sit here and debate good, bad, whatever we may think of Kerryon Johnson, myself, Dave, Heath, you, whatever, the Lions traded up to go get him. And I saw something. I wish I would have remembered where it was.

The last four teams to trade up for a running back in the draft, those four guys were all great. Really? Yeah, I wish I saw it somewhere. I wanted to remember. I know one was Melvin Gordon. And by great, I mean fantasy-wise, their production fantasy-wise. Gordon was one. Camaro was one.

Hunt was one. And there's a fourth. Cool. Carry on, Johnson. I forget who it was. But he was good. It was four guys who were good. Okay.

And Adam Vinatieri told Adam Schefter in an All-Adam podcast that Vinatieri has no doubt Andrew Luck will play in week one. Why wasn't I on that podcast with Adam and Adam? Yeah, I'm not sure. Wow, I definitely need to be in PR. Dalvin Cook was the fourth. Yeah, he's good. That's a great stat. Jamie, let's continue our series.

Episode two. Let's put a first round pick under the microscope. We did Ezekiel Elliott on our last show today. Hey, why not Todd Gurley? Will probably be the number one pick in average draft position. Certainly in standard. Maybe not in PPR. There's a case to be made for Le'Veon Bell.

But if we put Todd Gurley under a microscope here, we know what the upside is. Last year he had 279 carries, 1,305 yards, and 13 touchdowns. Throw in another 64 catches for 788 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns. That's 19 total touchdowns on about 2,100 yards. Amazing year. Coming off a total dud in 2016. All right, we'll start with an easy one.

What do you expect from Todd Gurley in 2018? The best thing I think that happened to him, along with Sean McVay, Andrew Whitworth, and Jared Goff being better, was what McVay did for him as a pass catcher. And I did this story. It's for our magazine publication. It will be on the site on CBS Sports. I believe it's on Sportsline right now.

Similar to the story I did about receivers last year where I talked to a bunch of guys about other players. And I asked Le'Veon Bell what impressed him about Todd Gurley, and the first thing he said was his change in the passing game and how much that was an impact for him. And he was just awesome as a pass catcher last year. And so I think he's got 2,000 total yard potential. I think he's got 15 to 20 touchdown potential.

It's just a matter of can he stay healthy because this team is clearly pointed in the direction of competing for a Super Bowl and barring a disaster of an offensive line that everybody falls apart, I find it really difficult for him to go back to what he was. I remember two years ago he was in the conversation to be the number one overall pick, and he let us down. Last year he fell to, in some cases, the second round, in some cases the end of the second round, and was just the player that we saw as a rookie. And he's there again.

I mean, it's just hard to overlook that. Well, first of all, I'm glad you mentioned Sportsline. We have some content on Sportsline.com that you're probably going to find really helpful. Sportsline.com, it is a pay site, but it's very inexpensive. It's about $10 a month, and I can get you the first month for free. No, for $1. My listeners can get the first month for $1, so just give it a shot. Go to Sportsline.com and sign up with the promo code HUDDLE.

HUDDLE is the promo code, H-U-D-D-L-E. Take a look at it. I think you'll really like it. It's a pretty comprehensive website. You want to bet on some games. It's got some fantasy research. It's got a whole bunch of sports. It's got computer simulations.

It's got experts. Sportsline.com, and the promo code is HUDDLE. All right, so here's something I found for Gurley that actually made me kind of go on Team Le'Veon. Maybe. You know, I think the six receiving touchdowns probably come down. And they didn't throw the ball much last year. 24th in the NFL in passing. If they throw the ball more, I don't know if that means more catches for him.

I think bringing in Brandon Cooks, I think he'll be just better than Sammy Watkins. Like Todd Gurley was their leading receiver last year, second leading receiver. I think he led in receptions. He was up there in most major categories. So I don't know that that happens again. Second on the team in yards, and he led the team with 64 catches. That's what it was. But I found two examples of a guy who had a running back who just had an amazing season

and then didn't do nearly as well the following year. And I didn't include David Johnson because he got hurt. But you go back to Todd Gurley? I didn't include Todd Gurley, actually, because he only played 12 games that year. But, yeah, that would have worked. Go back to 2014, and DeMarco Murray was the number one running back in fantasy. He had that amazing year with Dallas. He was bad in 2015.

He switched teams. He switched teams. So I think there's an obvious reason there. Now, the year before that, 2013, this is what I look at, right? Jamal Charles, I'll be 100% honest, I don't remember the circumstances in 2014. What I do know is that Charles played 15 games in both 2013 and 14. And he went from number one with about 2,000 total yards and 19 total touchdowns. Amazing year in 2013 to a very good year. 2013, he was the number six, or 14 rather, he was the number six running back in fantasy. Went from number one to number six. And he had about 1,300 yards and 14 total touchdowns. So he had about 500 to 600 fewer

total yards. He had a lot fewer carries. They gave Niall Davis a lot more work. I think there must have been some injuries, even though he played 15 games both years. But it just seemed like 2013 was this charmed, best-case scenario season for Jamal Charles. And maybe that's what 2017 was for Todd Gurley. Maybe we just can't realistically expect anyone to score 19 total touchdowns. The numbers just come down because it's just kind of like regression. It's not a concern per se, but can things really get even better for Gurley? I don't think so. No.

They probably have to be a little bit worse. So here's, I think, where the comparisons come in because I think you're going to see the wild card to all this. I guess there's probably two wild cards because I think for the most part there's four consensus running backs at the top. It's Gurley, Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson. Format will kind of determine where they go in what order. The two wild cards will probably be Alvin Kamara and

especially PPR without marking or suspended for four games. And Saquon Barkley because I think if he has any dramatic highlight plays in the preseason, that could push him up maybe a little bit. I don't think Kareem Hunt leapfrogs those four other guys. He's the other guy I think that's in the conversation, Leonard Fournette and Melvin Gordon, but I think they're probably behind all those other guys.

What I think will happen is, like you say you're on Team Le'Veon. Well, maybe. Huh? Not in standard. Not in non-PPR. But in PPR, I think I might be. Yeah. But you brought it up.

So Le'Veon is the one that will be, for the most part, consensus number two. I can't see a scenario, barring some injury to the Rams, including Gurley, where Bell's contract situation doesn't keep him back and may push him down more so than push him up. So he may be better than him once we get to the season, but I think that's still going to keep him behind on draft day. Can someone make an argument that Ezekiel Elliott in non-PPR is better? Yes, because we saw it two years ago when he played 16 games. We even saw it last year when he was able to play the 10 games that he played. Can you make an argument that David Johnson is better than Todd Gurley? Because two years ago, it was David Johnson was the guy.

I mean, you could have been making these arguments against David Johnson. Johnson scored more fantasy points in 2016 than Gurley did in 2017. Especially, I think, when you factor in PPR, what he's able to do as a receiver. And again, the flaws with David Johnson aren't necessarily David Johnson. It's the offensive line good. You heard Dave and I debated on a previous show. And the quarterback situation. So, you know, you're finding flaws. I just went back, you know, I'm taking a look at some of my keeper leagues

and trying to get a jump on who am I keeping. I looked at one where I realized midway through the season I wasn't going to be competitive. I started making some trades to get better keepers, and I'm picking second. So I'm like, okay, Le'Veon Bell, here we go. I know at least my first round pick is locked in.

But if we get to Labor Day weekend or wherever I have my draft, and Le'Veon's contract situation is bad, David Johnson looks good, his PPR, I may pull the trigger and take David Johnson over him. I don't think that's going to happen. Over who? Over Le'Veon? But what does it matter? What does his contract situation matter?

I mean he missed everything last year and he was incredible. Right. Right, but I guess the point would be is, like you just said, if you're telling me that Jamal Charles went from, in 2013, was it 1,900 total yards and 19 touchdowns? Yeah, something like that. Yeah, about 2,000 total yards, 19 touchdowns, to about 1,300 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Right.

So the drop-off was big but still kept him, I would imagine, as a top five guy. Yeah, sixth. I really think there must have been an injury because he lost like 50 carries and Niall Davis had a bunch. He must have played hurt. I'm trying to remember because next year is when he tore his ACL. In any event, I think that's where – the way that I view the top of the draft is how far will they fall if things go bad.

Like Todd Gurley, when he fell that year, two years ago, when he was being picked as a top three pick, was terrible. It ruins your team. Yes. If he falls – He stunk, for sure. If he falls from 1 to 6, you can still be very successful with that. I guess the question is, where's the floor? I agree.

No, I agree. I totally agree. The reason I think I'm on Team Le'Veon, you just look at his last three healthy seasons. I'll give you a number. Forget about the seasons. Every time he's played 13 games, I believe it's 2014, 2016, 2017. I'll give you a number. Forget about the seasons. Every time he's played 13 games, I believe it's 1,800 total yards. Not 2013.

Oh, I'm sorry. 1,400 total yards. Three of them have been 1,800 yards or more. No, that's not including his rookie year when he played 13 games. Yeah, throughout his rookie year since then. Yeah. He's played 12, 15, and 16 games in his last three healthy seasons.

How many yards? 1,800 total. That's amazing. And the difference is he's never scored more than three receiving touchdowns. Todd Gurley had six last year. And that's a number that, to me, is completely fluky. I definitely expect Le'Veon Bell to catch more balls than Todd Gurley. So I don't really see a reason to get... I don't really see a reason

to... Yeah, I'm on it. Le'Veon Bell number one in PPR. I don't see a reason not to take him. Unless you just think he's older and more injury prone or something. Look, he's coming off the most carries of his career, to your point, about him not or him being

ready. Most carries of his career last year. Most rushing touchdowns of his career, to your point about him not, you know, or him being ready. Most carries of his career last year. Most rushing touchdowns of his career last year. Most targets of his career last year. No, yeah, most targets of his career, most receptions. I mean, he said to me when I talked to him at the Super Bowl in terms of Le'Veon Bell, he said, there's always been another guy. He goes, I pride myself on my consistency and my track record. He goes, but there's always been another guy. He goes, I pride myself on my consistency and my track record. He goes, but there's always been another guy.

He goes, when I came into the league, it was DeMarco Murray going into the 2014 season. 2015 was, I forget who he said, 2016 was Zeke. Last year was Gurley. He goes, there's always been somebody else who I don't get the chance to be considered the best. He goes, but you look at my track record, it speaks for itself. I guess he was talking about his contract situation as well. I hope they don't sign him for fantasy purposes. I want this guy motivated.

I want him angry. I want him looking for that mega contract. I hope he's on just the one-year franchise deal. I would like to be motivated like that. Somebody give me the most money of anybody at my position. You know how he is. He's got a chip on his shoulder. I don't want to get paid. All right. I was going to do some Jamie ranking analysis, but we'll save that for another show. Let's finish up with some emails. Fantasy

football at CBS.com. By the way, I should ask you, are you girly number one in all formats? Yeah. I think the two or three year age difference helps Okay. I just – I think he's – the two- or three-year age difference helps him. The offense, I think, is amazing. The division, I think they're going to steamroll everybody else as good as San Francisco. Maybe they're not at that level yet. And I just – I'm a Sean McVay guy. I'm sorry, but the Steelers have an easier path to the division title than the Reds. I don't think so.

I do. I think Baltimore always gives them problems, and they will. But they're still going to win the division. Like, Baltimore does give them problems. You're right. Who has a bigger margin of victory by the end of the season in terms of games? Who has a bigger division lead? I think it's easily the Steelers to me.

Easily? Easily, yeah. I still – look, I don't think the Seahawks – I think the Seahawks are worse, but they still have the best quarterback in the division. Niners will make some progress. Cardinals stink. Yeah. Yeah.

Look, everything went so well for the Rams, it wouldn't shock me if they took a step back this year. And they got a ton of personalities on that team. Wouldn't shock me. I still like them. I still pick them to win the division. But, gosh, the Steelers are going to just destroy that division. That's a terrible division. I think Cincinnati's better than they were a year ago,

and Cleveland's definitely better than they were a year ago. Yeah, I mean, it's hard not to be. They went winless. All right, here we go. They've cleansed themselves, though. They have. They've cleansed themselves. Ran into the water.

Mickey says, since the Scott Fishbowl, eight invites are going out, and I got in wondering if you have any tips and or tricks that you're able to use in a slow draft that differ from a standard draft with 30 to 90 second per pick timers. Slow, untimed draft, Jamie. That's a great question. Yeah. I don't think there is. We've had a couple of scenarios of people taking advantage of slow drafts near the season.

There's an infamous story in our office. It's now down to about 24 teams, but we had at one point a 32 or 30 team league. I think it was 30 teams in our office. And it happened to Dave, who just coincidentally was the commissioner, where another owner drafted Sage Rosenfeld, thinking he had the Minnesota Vikings quarterback at the time. And sure enough, Brett Favre came out of retirement and signed with the Vikings right at the time Dave was on the clock. And this was middle to the end of the draft. And it was a big, I don't want to say controversy, because it's hard to argue that this other guy had a strong point. But he said that he should have gotten Brett Favre.

No. Because he took what he thought at the time was the Vikings' starting quarterback. Okay, well, I'm sorry. That's just not the case. Well, there were a lot of people that were on his side, because given the scope of the league and how deep it is, that this guy never would have taken Sage Rosenfeld at the time. were on his side because they felt given the scope of the league and how deep it is that this guy never would have taken Sage Rosenfeld at the time.

And Dave was the benefactor. And obviously, as the commissioner, he wasn't going to change that thing. But it put him in a little bit of a comfortable spot. I did a draft, a slow draft recently, and not to the same level in terms of player. But I took a flyer. I think it was like round nine or round 10 on C.J. Anderson. And then sure enough, he signed with the Panthers. Not that that necessarily is like a big leap of where his ADP is,

but it was a benefit. I don't really think that there is. The one thing that you are able to do, especially if you pick toward an end, is you should be able to gauge what the picks are of the people picking after you. Because if, let's say, you pick 9th and you don't want to take a tight end, you can take a look to see who has, you know, those players, that position locked up, quarterback, same thing. Do they need, you know, an extra running back, an extra receiver?

Can you wait on the turn to come back and get those guys? I think that's probably the biggest advantage. And if you're doing a draft and there is somebody out there that's unsigned that you think is definitely going to get drafted, like a Dez Bryant or something like that just be aware that you know in a slow draft at some point the news might break and he might sign and then you know you might miss your chance because he could be the best player on the board at that point you might miss so you know like the situation if you're doing a draft and it's done within an hour and a half everybody's in the same boat if you're doing a slow draft I guess maybe you might have to go a little bit earlier on a guy like Dez or somebody that's unsigned because he could sign at some point during the draft and become amazing value for whoever's on the clock.

You might not have a chance. You also have the negative part of that is if you're doing a slow draft and you're like, man, I just got Hunter Henry in the sixth round. Whoops. Yeah. Oh, man. All right. Brent from northeast Minnesota is in a keeper league. It is PPR, two running backs, two wide receivers, and a flex. He's keeping Zeke and Kamara.

Zeke in the first, Kamara in the 12th. But wide receiver talent is very thin. So who should he take with the 12th overall pick? With already Zeke and Kamara, Baldwin, Gronk, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, and Fournette are available. Baldwin, Gronk, Cook, McCaffrey, and Fournette. He doesn't know for sure that they'll be available, but that's his best guess. Baldwin's the only wide receiver there, Jamie. He knows if he doesn't take Baldwin, he's going to have bad wide receivers.

But Baldwin is definitely not the best player on the board. So do you take Baldwin, Gronk, Dalvin Cook, McCaffrey, or Fournette with already Zeke and Kamara on your team? So he's picking 12th and 13th? I think he gave up the 12th pick for Zeke, so he has 13th. Okay, so I'm always going to take best player available. I don't want to reach for a player just because it fills a spot. He said he could play flex, right? Yes. So take whichever of those non-Gronk options are available to you.

If it's not Baldwin, so if it's Fournette who falls or Cook. Again, if you're telling me all these guys are capped, I can't imagine a scenario where if everybody's keeping two players, so 24 players are off the board, that he even has a shot at maybe anybody but Baldwin. So that's not a bad scenario to put yourself in. So who are you taking? I'm taking Cook. One of those guys?

Yeah. I'll probably take Cook. No, I'm taking Fournette. And PPR? I'm taking Cook. I'm sorry. Yeah. Cook, McCaffrey, Fournette. I mean, there's good running backsette. And PPR? I'm taking Cook. I'm sorry. Yeah. Cook, McCaffrey, Fournette.

I mean, there's good running backs there. Yeah. You can always make a trade. All right. Shane in a tropical beach town somewhere between Port St. Lucie and Boca Raton. Okay. Delray Beach. There's been a topic that comes up occasionally on the pod that I wanted to mention.

Six point versus four point per passing touchdown quarterback rankings. Every time this comes up, the theme with the guys is the same. Quarterbacks are now more valuable in six point per passing touchdown. I would argue, however, that the only difference with the scoring change is that quarterbacks that score a higher ratio of their points from rushing and throw fewer touchdowns, like Cam, would now be slightly devalued. There's no change in the market availability of quarterbacks with the scoring change, so why draft one early? Go Gators.

I mean, this is the kind of email I would expect from a Gators fan, Jamie. It's just wrong. It's just flat-out wrong. Yeah, we don't change the value on quarterbacks and six points. We downgrade them in four points, though. That's, I think, the difference. Well, no, but what I'm saying is you should. If you're used to a four-point, we are used to six points, so if you're used to a four-point per passing touchdown, of course quarterback value goes up in six-point per passing touchdown league, and it's their value relative to the other players, to the running backs, wide receivers,

and tight ends. I mean, they just, they score more points. Now, with the value of quarterbacks within the quarterback position, yeah, you have to look at the guys who rush for more touchdowns And they might be hurt going from four to six points per passing touchdown But, I mean, I think it's pretty clear to me, Jamie Like, just you're talking general draft strategy Quarterbacks are more valuable when it's six points per passing touchdown And they're less valuable when it's six points per passing touchdown, and they're less valuable when it's four points. Right?

Yes. But we don't change the value of them, though, to what his question is. Well, yes, we do. We change the value of them when we go from six points to four points. You devalue quarterbacks. I guess it's probably on the premise that we always talk about six points. So we devalue the ones that we look at. What's with these Gators, man?

I mean, Jamie and Shane just can't. What's with you guys? Well, we're not used to dealing with semantics because all we do is win. Okay. Ben. A little bit of a lull in football, but everything else. Ben from Brisbane, Australia. Hey, Nathan, Nathan, Nathan, and Nathan.

Last time I asked you a question, you assumed I was a Canadian hockey fan, so I went for Aussie NHL players, and there are not many options. Dynasty question, three-receiver league. Mates offered to trade me David Johnson if I give him Doug Baldwin and Rashad Penny. Would you give up Baldwin and Rashad Penny for David Johnson? Standard scoring. Yes. All right.

He's getting David Johnson. He's getting David Johnson. Thank you, Ben, mate. And this is Teddy from Colorado. I can't tell you how many times we've had this question. The last time we answered it, Jamie, you weren't on the show, so I bring it up again. When deciding keepers, do you choose value over rank,

or does it change your view given that I'm in a standard league? Oh, they're going to do a snake draft in this league. It's always the same question. It's like, do you keep the stud, or do you go for the value? And I think what we said on the previous show was that it really is case-specific. But he can keep Dalvin Cook in the second, Devontae Freeman in the sixth, Jarek McKinnon and Tyreek Hill in the 15th, Baldwin in the 16th. And you can keep three of those.

So Cook in the second, Freeman in the sixth, McKinnon in the 15th, Tyreek Hill in the 15th, Baldwin in the 16th. Which three would you keep? Keep them in the same round forever. I think you know where I come out on this because I'm usually the value guy. So I'm always going to lean toward value, especially if it's close. The fact that you keep these guys forever, receivers are going to have a much more career lifespan than running backs.

So I'll take Tyreek Hill and Doug Baldwin, and I'm going to keep Derek McKinnon in the 15th round. I just think that there's a similar upside between him and Devontae Freeman this year. And there might be between him. Yeah, but there's also Dalvin Cook in the second. Yeah, but I know you're excited about Dalvin Cook, and you have every right to be. And a lot of people should be.

I am as well. But are we really looking at him barring him just taking this unbelievable leap? Because even though if he played 16 games last year, I don't think he would have been a top five guy. Is he taking this unbelievable leap, or is he really going to be, for the most part, a borderline top 10 through top 15 overall pick if he just stays at the level he was at a year ago?

Are you asking me a question? I'm asking you, yeah. Do you see him being better than the 10th overall pick? Around there. So he's than the 10th overall pick? Around there. So he's really a second-round pick? Yeah, I just don't think you're going to get him when there's keepers involved. You're not going to get him. But every year, look, McKinnon's probably got – if Dalvin Cook's great,

he's probably got a five-year lifespan of being great, right? Yeah. If McKinnon's good, he's got a five-year lifespan of being great. Right? Yeah. If McKinnon's good, he's got a three-year lifespan of being good. Right? Yeah. Fair enough. So you lock in Tyree Kill, who we've seen great things from for two years and maybe blows up even more with Patrick Mahomes.

We've seen very good things from Doug Baldwin, who's locked in, at least for now, as the number one guy for Russell Wilson. I think those are no-brainers. And then, to me, I'm taking the guy in the 15th round, which gives me 14 rounds to play with, knowing I have number two running back and two potential number one wide receivers locked in. Okay.

All right, let's see if we can finish up here. You know, I'll just save these for our next show. We've got plenty of time. So Justin and Aaron and Tyler, you listen to this week's next show, and you'll hear your question. Yes. I think I should end the show now. All right, listen to the Pick 6 podcast, our interview with Deontay Thompson. That will be dropping tomorrow morning or Tuesday morning,

depending on when you hear this show. It will be Tuesday morning. Jamie and I did some football chatting on the Monday show, so check that out. Go to Sportsline and sign up with the promo code HUDDLE, and we'll talk to you on Thursday on Fantasy Football Today. See you later. Bye.