Fantasy Football Today - 06/07: Top 150 Week: #30-1 (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 7, 2019

Our final episode of "Top 150 Week" brings us to the Top 30 players in our consensus PPR rankings. Spoiler Alert: While we do reveal the entire Top 30, we ran out of time to have the necessary conversation about the Top 4 overall players, but that will happen next week. Today, we've got three TEs and the rest are RBs and WRs. Odell Beckham or Mike Evans? Nick Chubb or Todd Gurley? Can Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz get 150 targets again? Thanks for listening to us all week and enjoy the show! To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. The top 30 players in our top 150.

Let's get to it. What's going on, everybody? Hope you've been enjoying the shows this week. I've been enjoying the heck out of them. Dave, Jamie, and Heath, you guys have been outstanding. I really appreciate all the hard work. I mean, it's your job, but it's been a lot of great hard work. So, you ready for the top 30 today? Bring it on.

Hey, alright. Bring it on warriors. Bring it on. So, we do have some Tyreek Hill news. I think we'll probably talk about it when we get to Travis Kelsey. Actually, we could probably talk about it right now with number 30, Damian Williams. It's a great place to start. Damian Williams has been the hottest source of debate, I'd say, on this show since the season ended.

And he checks in at number 30 overall okay guys let's uh let's get started with chiefs running back damian williams go well who wants him if tyree kill is going to be back in kansas city well i mean just kidding yeah yeah i do think that like and just because of the way that i do my projections this has a slight impact on Damian Williams because Tyreek Hill has had between 17 and 24 rush attempts each of the last three years. He's scored four rushing touchdowns in three seasons. When he's active, he does take some of those rush attempts. And what happens when a receiver catches a long touchdown? It ends a drive.

It takes away rushing opportunities from the run game. So on the flip side, you could say Tyreek Hill being on the field that pushes the safeties back, it makes it even easier for Damian Williams to see light boxes to run against. That's true. I said it today on the show. Dave had Damian Williams as a breakout. Jamie had him as a bust. I said I was kind of in the middle, more towards Dave. I said the great thing about this is one of you guys is going to be so, so right. Because if he plays 16 games as a starting running back,

he's probably a top five running back in fantasy. And we were all too low on him. And he could very well flame out after two or three games. So what are the odds that Damian Williams gets 12 touches a week, Carlos Hyde gets 15 touches a week, and we have two okay running backs. I'd probably flip the numbers if you're going to go that route. Fine, either way.

Williams is going to get more than Hyde. We know the history, right, Jamie, of Andy Reid to make a guy a feature guy. Do you think that's going to happen one way or the other this year? I think what we're going to get to a totally different scale is what they kind of wanted to do in Kareem Hunt's rookie season, because it was going to be Spencer Ware as the quote unquote starter, which is very much how Damian Williams feels like to me. Took advantage of a great situation the year before in terms of Ware and was a good fantasy option. Williams seems to be a better player than Spencer Ware was

based on what he showed at the end of last season. And the circumstances around Damian Williams are better than what they were around Spencer Ware at the time. But it was draft Kareem Hunt to work him in and not necessarily make it a committee to what we think of what committee running backs could be or backfields could be. But I think you're going to see a scenario of it's not going to be damien williams like that colts game where he had

20 something carries that's not going to be the case uh if everybody's healthy i think you're gonna see yeah you're gonna see like when you said 12 carries for for williams i think that's about right yeah and then two to three catches. He could still be very successful. It really comes down to, I think Damian Williams, it's one of the stupidest things that people are getting excited about is the Chiefs coaching staff has named Damian Williams the starter. Well, no bleep. Well, why do you think he's a bust?

I think where he's getting drafted. I think the fact that our consensus has him at 30, the fact that his draft value has been going in the third round, I think that's just way too soon. I've seen him at the end of round two. It's just too soon. Dave, make the case for the breakout. Well, I don't mind that the coaches are calling.

Andy Reid yesterday called him full-time starter. We expect him to be the first. What is he going to say? He could temper the expectations and say he's going to be a part of a – he's going to get the first crack at him. The only person that would do that would be Pete Carroll. the expectations and say he's going to be a part of a, he's going to get the first crack at him. The only person that would do that would be Pete Carroll. But he could also mention Hyde and he could also mention Thompson, Darwin Thompson.

And he's not doing that. They are, if anything, they're putting a lot of pressure on Damian Williams saying that he's going to be that guy. Drive it up. Well, I don't know if that's necessarily going to drive up his ADP. Of course it is because people think that he's, oh, he's the guy. Oh, I think he's going to, I think he's going to be a borderline second, third round pick. Yes.

And if he's a starter for 16 games, that's a steal. I agree. To me, this is about the opportunity. And Damian Williams has to make the most of the opportunity. I spent some time yesterday. I'm going to do a deep dive on Damian Williams. I spent some time yesterday going through his 2016 and 2017 seasons. 2017, he really didn't get much of a chance to play. Cause when a Jaya got

traded, he had some opportunities. He hurt his shoulder. He was done for the year. And I think he had some problems in Miami after that about with the coaching staff. I'm not the only player to go through problems in South Florida, but in 2016 he had limited work. He had 58 touches. He had six touchdowns, three rushing, three receiving. So that was almost like a glimmer into what his potential is. And I found some old clips about teammates really expressing their gratitude toward Damian Williams and how much of a gamer he is and how hard he works.

And it's not necessarily coach speak speak but maybe this doesn't even matter maybe none of what i'm saying matters other than this he's going to be the quote-unquote full-time starter for the kansas city chiefs to begin the season and that's been a spot in andy reed's offenses that has done very well for fantasy yeah i want that on my fantasy team all right that was uh that was five minutes that's cool i knew we'd spend a lot of time on Damian Williams. We're going to average about two minutes per player. Julian Edelman is number 29, and he was on pace. If he had played 16 games, he would have been the number 11 wide receiver in non-PPR,

number 10 in PPR. You can pretty much pencil him in for 100 or so catches, 1,100, 1,200 yards. What about the touchdowns? He was on pace for eight last year. That would have been a lot for him. So, Heath, what do you think about Edelman at 29 overall? This is right about where I have him ranked. There is significant risk because of his age and injury history.

There is plenty of upside in PPR. He could be a 100-catch guy relatively easily and over 1,000 yards, and I'd guess he's going to score six or seven touchdowns like he has during his best seasons. I think he's a fine number two wide receiver in PPR, maybe even a high-end number two. He had one game last year below 12 PPR fantasy points, and he had 12 on the nose in his first game after the suspension.

He's easy easy money solid better than a solid number two receiver he's a very good number two fantasy for as many games as he plays the the patriots have a long history of getting rid of a guy one year before he's typically done and they just gave him an extension on his contract at 33 years old i think that speaks volumes to still where they expect him to perform. My guess is that he will benefit slightly, if not significantly, with Gronk being gone. So I'm all in on Edelman. He's a top 12 receiver for me in PPR. Okay, and I know these are our PPR rankings, but where is Edelman in non-PPR?

Just outside. He's a top 15 either way. I've got him 19th and non-13th in PPR rankings, but where's Edelman in non-PPR? Just outside. He's top 15 either way. I've got him 19th and non-13th in PPR. Okay. Let's do two receivers. We have four receivers in our rankings coming up, back to back to back to back. They are 28 through 25 in the rankings,

and in the wide receiver rankings, are wide receivers let's see 10 through 14 or 10 through 13 sorry edelman was 14 so let's do digs and hilton they're back to back stefan digs is wide receiver 13 he's number 28 overall ty hilton is wide receiver 12 he's number 27 overall i honestly can't imagine a draft if they're both available that I'm ever taking Diggs over Hilton. How about you guys? The same. And for me, it's the uncertainty of what's going on in Minnesota's offense, their passing game specifically, whereas Indianapolis, I think they'll be aggressive and successful.

Who would take? I've never seen Diggs go ahead of Hilton. And Hilton is one spot ahead, but they're very close. But to me, they're not really. It's an easy call. Oh, I think they're very close. They're both borderline number one receivers that probably don't have top five upside. I've actually got Diggs and PPR ranked just a little bit higher than Hilton. I think he'll probably catch more passes than Hilton does this year. And I don't see any reason not to expect him to score more touchdowns than Hilton does this year. And I don't see any reason not to expect him to score more touchdowns than Hilton does this year.

Now, someone can make the argument, Stephon Diggs had more PPR points, half PPR points, than T.Y. Hilton last year. And he was more consistent by a nudge over T.Y. last year. He played an extra game. The situation's going to get worse. That's one of the reasons. Like, if you were going to...

And they both have some some injury concerns sure um but i i just yeah it's funny touch touchdowns will make up part of it yeah and digs catches a lot higher percentage of his targets uh it is weird because i i do see that they are very close but to me i would just take the clear-cut number one guy for Andrew Luck over probably the number two guy, 1A, 1B, for Kirk Cousins on a team that ran the ball so much down the stretch. We talked about it with Thielen. They want to run the ball.

So I totally get it. Statistically, they're probably going to be close, but it just feels like Hilton's safer. They're around three picks for a reason, though. What does that mean? In a positive way? Like he said, they're not top five guys.

There's going to be limitations for both of them. Both are, to different degrees, in crowded receiving cores, like you said, 1-1A for the Vikings guys, so there's somebody else that takes a good chunk of the targets. For the Colts, there's just a plethora of guys, which is a downgrade to Hilton's upside.

But system matters here, and I think the Colts' system is a better passing system right now than what the Vikings will sort of operate with. Alright, so our next two wide receivers, 26 and 25 in the countdown, and they are wide receivers 10 and 11. And they are wide receivers 10 and 11,

and they are Amari Cooper and A.J. Green. It's actually Green 25, Cooper 26, but we're counting down, so Cooper 26, A.J. Green 25. The group of four is, you know, in order of 28 through 25, is Diggs, Hilton, Cooper, Green.

But Dave, let's focus on Cooper and Green. What do you want to say with these guys? I want Cooper. Remember all those years in Oakland where we talked about how inconsistent he was and the targets were inconsistent? They weren't inconsistent with Dallas. He had seven or more targets in nine of 11 games. He had five or more catches in eight of 11 games. He had five or more catches in eight of 11 games.

And in those 11 games, he had nearly 900 yards and seven touchdowns. Put that on a 16-game pace. You've got 96 catches, 1,300 yards, 10 touchdowns. And that would make for a breakout year for him if he had those kinds of numbers. And I think the potential is there. I read up today on their minicamp this week that they've been flying around and Dak is throwing the ball better down the field they've been drilling it and Cooper's been on the other end and uh I'm getting excited about this Cowboys offense I think

they could be they could be fun and Cooper's going to be a big part of it talk to me about AJ Green then I like Green just a smidge more i mean i've got these guys back to back as well and they're only separated by 10 points in my projection so it's basically a coin flip but the difference for me is that green has traditionally been a guy that gets more yards per reception right around 15 for his career he's been a little bit better at getting into the end zone so i think their catches will be close i think their targets will be close. I think their targets will be close. I just think Green will be a little bit more productive with those catches. Agreed. I also think the numbers that Dave

mentioned is basically what A.J. Green has done when he's been healthy. Now he's clearly been injury prone the last couple of seasons. But if you're talking about one guy getting to that spot and one guy who's been able to do it, that gives me a little bit slight edge toward Green. I also think that the addition of Randall Cobb and

the return of Jason Witten takes some numbers away from what Cooper was able to do down the stretch last year when it was him, Michael Gallup, and Alan Hearns. And we'll see if Alan Hearns is able to get back on the field also. But they're in similar situations. I think both guys have a ton of upside. If Green plays 16 games, he will outscore Amari Cooper. I feel confident with that. Why would I take Amari Cooper over 2Y Hilton? I wouldn't. I think he's got more upside, and I think the consistency will be there for him

when it hasn't been in the past. But it wasn't there. The consistency was not there with him, with Dak Prescott. I mean, extremely. Not last year. I'm saying it's going to improve. Right. Right. Yeah.

But Hilton is consistent. On a week to week basis, is he? He's not. To me, they're kind of the same. You're going to get good weeks, bad weeks, a couple of blow up weeks. I mean, last year was pretty good for T.Y. I mean, he had four weeks with 50 or fewer yards. So he had he had a sixgame stretch, T.Y. Hilton, without a touchdown.

And he still averaged 17.2 PBR fantasy points per game. I mean, I think he's good. Don't get me wrong. He's right in that same range. I think that you just have a higher opinion of T.Y. Hilton than the group does. Seems that way. But, I mean, it can't be that much higher. It's, you know, these guys are back-to-back-to-back-to-back.

Yeah, and both of these guys have, you know, game-wrecking potential where they're going to give you one or two weeks of, like, 30 PPR points. And in non-PPR, I do have Hilton ahead of Cooper. Yeah, I made the switch. I went with Cooper. I had that T.Y. It is a fair point. I mean, T.Y. Hilton's not a big catch guy compared to the others.

76 catches in 14 games last year, certainly not bad, but you're not going to get that 105-catch season out of TY Hilton. He's got more than 82 once ever. Yeah, whereas AJ Green in his eight healthy games, he was on pace for 90 catches, I believe. Yeah, 90 catches. Okay, so then we got a tight end in front of all these guys, and it's George Kittle.

By the way, man, these debates are fun. Really, do you take Kittle ahead of those guys? How many people are going to listen to this podcast and hear those four wide receivers we just talked about and like at least one of them ahead of Mike Evans, who's coming up in the countdown? How many people are going to like Kittle over Zach Ertz, who's coming up in the countdown? Let's talk about Kittle like Kittle over Zach Ertz, who's coming up in the countdown?

Let's talk about Kittle and Ertz. Kittle's 24. He's tied in three. Ertz is 22. He's tied in two. Obviously, Travis Kelsey's number one. Stick around to find out where he is in the rankings. So, yeah, Kittle and Ertz are essentially back-to-back.

They're separated by two spots. Who do you guys prefer, Kittle or Ertz? I'll take Kittle. I'll take Ertz? I'll take Kittle. I'll take Ertz. I'll take Ertz. And I think the funny thing is, comparing these two to that group of receivers we were talking about, Zach Ertz, don't forget about the tight end thing

and there's not enough good tight ends. Zach Ertz outscored all those guys last year. He did? He had 280 PPR points by my calculation. Stephon Diggs at 264. He had 116 catches, Zacherts.

And George Kittle outscored all of those guys except for Stephon Diggs. Wow. It's pretty interesting. Unless you think there is something major that's going to happen to them, because they don't need to outscore those wide receivers to be worth more on draft day than them,

because the rest of their position is so god-awful. If they're anywhere close to them, they are worth more on draft day. If they're scoring more than them, they're worth a round more. I mean, this is the debate I have with Kelsey and Odell Beckham in my mind, because these two guys have great potential, but I'd rather have the tight end at the thin position than the receiver, who I know I can get a good receiver later on. And that's how I feel about Kittle and Ertz ahead of all the receivers that we talked about. I think that they've got just as much potential for the same

type of production, but they might be a little bit more consistent in terms of tight end numbers, and they're going to make your lineup different than the majority of the other managers in your league. Let's talk about the players, though, rather than the philosophy, I suppose.

Dave, why do you like Kittle better than Ertz? I don't think there's as much of a chance of his targets falling than Ertz's chances. I think Ertz is going to see a drop in targets and catches. How can it go up? Well, I don't think it can go up, but he had 28 more catches and outscored him by 24 points. So he could lose 10 catches and be fine. And those big plays for Kittle are hard to replicate.

But that's what he does. I was thinking about Kittle on the way into work today and just how much of a monster he was last year. Dave loves Kittle. Yeah, it's true. Both of these guys did some pretty remarkable things. George Kittle set a

single season record for tight ends with 1,377 yards. Only seven wide receivers had more receiving yards George Kittle set a single season record for tight ends with 1,377 yards. Only seven wide receivers had more receiving yards than Kittle. Zach Ertz had 156 targets in 16 games. Did he set a record for targets? Because only going into this year, 150 targets for a tight end. It only happened three times. Thank you to Heath for that. Three times. It was Tony Gonzalez every time. Ertz and Kelsey both had 150 or more targets last year. It's coming down for Zach Ertz. He's not getting that again.

See, here's the thing, though, and I think you're probably right. I'm definitely right. I don't know if you're definitely right. 100%. Because if only one guy has ever done it, but he did it three times, that doesn't scream to me the guy that just did it could never do it again.

Sure. It tells me that if you do that, you're probably one of those guys that's going to get targeted a lot. A special, special tight end. Ertz's numbers with Wentz on the field last year were just insane. So he didn't play Wentz week one, week two, and then 15, 16, 17.

So of the, what was that, 12 games? 11. 11 games? Only two with less than 12 PPR points. And to answer your question, yes, that was a record. Tony Gonzalez's best was 155 targets in 2008. Beat him. Wow.

Okay, so last question. If either Kittle or Ertz is a bust this year, who's more likely? Kittle. Kittle. Sure, Kittle. Because I think he's got a little more downside than Ertz. But he also, of these three tight ends, he's the only one that didn't score six-plus touchdowns.

He only had five last year. That number can go up. I don't know if he's going to have 1,300 yards. Could be closer to 1,150, 1,200. But what's stopping Kittle from having seven or eight touchdowns? Oh, yeah, he should. Garoppolo should get him more than the crap they had last year. Didn't even mention the quarterbacks.

Mike Evans, 23rd overall in our countdown. though should get him more than the crap they had last year. Didn't even mention the quarterbacks. Mike Evans, 23rd overall in our countdown. He's in between the two tight ends, which is kind of weird. I mean, Ertz, Evans, Kittle, they could obviously go in any order. Why Ertz? Is there a separation between Ertz and that group of Edelman, Diggs, Hilton, Cooper, Green? Ertz or Evans? I'm sorry, Evans. Evans.

Evans is probably even too low in this because I have moved him up since we did these rankings. So he should probably be a couple spots higher. Yes, I do think there's a separation because with fewer targets than I would expect this year, he was better than all of these guys last year. The only time he's ever had 150-plus targets, he was the best receiver in fantasy football. And I think he's going to get 150 targets again. He's wide receiver nine in our consensus rankings, Mike Evans.

Guys, any disagreements with what he's saying? It's just a matter of who is he better than of the guys that... I'm looking. I don't know when you adjusted your rankings. See if you put him five. This is non-PR. I'm looking. Non-PPR.

But if targets is your biggest adjustment for him going up? Yes. And you have him at where? In PPR, he's eight. In non, I think he's five. But where do the targets go to, your projections? 170? I don't know.

It was like 155, 160. Because I have a hard time seeing him getting more targets than Adams. No, I don't think that he will, but I don't think Adams is probably going to average as many yards per reception as Evans does. But you're also still going to have Adams ahead of Evans, no matter what.

Well, you don't non-PPR. That's what I was asking. I don't think that I do have Adams ahead of him. I think Adams' targets are going to come down from last year. Excuse me? You don't have Devontae Adams ahead of Mike? Excuse me? In PPR, I currently have him five and Evans is eight.

And in non-PPR, you have Evans ahead of Devontae Adams? Evans is five and Adams is seven. What is wrong with that? He's allowed to do it. He is. I'm glad he did it because that means we got a lot to talk about when we get to Devontae Adams. All right, that's Mike Evans. You guys want to give me a quick downside for Mike Evans? The other year he was good. Sure, you's Mike Evans. You guys want to give me a quick downside for Mike Evans? The other year he was good. Sure, you could say that. Maybe the Bucs defense will be really good.

Maybe their run game will be really good. Maybe Jameis won't attempt a lot of passes. Maybe Bruce Arians has turned over a new leaf. Started doing yoga. And wants to have a conservative offense. Now take everything I just said. Imagine the exact opposite. Including Bruce Arians rocking out a Metallica concert. And that's why Mike Evans is a top 10 receiver.

Okay. Dalvin Cook is 21 overall in the rankings. And we got a couple of wide receivers after Dalvin Cook. So he's going into his third season. Just needs to stay healthy. He's averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2017. Only played four

games, but he was great. Yeah, alright. Is it that simple? Just stay healthy and he's going to be a stud? Yep. I don't see any argument. We can just move on. Offensive line's better in Minnesota. He's going to catch the ball too, right?

Yeah. Yeah. Well, Dave, you have him as a buster, right? I did. I don't think I can call him that anymore. And listen, for weeks I was saying, I'll take Damian Williams out of Dalvin Cook. If we're talking about Tyreek Hill being back,

I can't do that anymore. Dalvin Cook is RB12 and number 21 overall in the countdown. We go to the top 20 now, and we've got two wide receivers, wide receiver 8 and wide receiver 7, Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown. Obviously, you've heard so many names, and it's completely feasible that Thielen and Diggs and Edelman and Hilton and Cooper and Green could all outperform Allen and Brown. Right? I'm not speaking out of turn there.

All those guys. Especially Brown. Are great. So is there a reason why Keenan Allen and Antonio Brown are top eight in our consensus rankings? Wide receiver, not overall. And the other guys aren't. Is there something that separates Allen and Brown? Upside.

Track record. Opportunity in their respective offenses? Yeah, I mean, I think you could make those individual arguments for Hilton, for A.J. Green. I don't, like, the Hilton thing, I don't, in PPR, I don't see, and maybe it's happened once. It's fair. But, like, Keenan Allen's going to catch 100 100 passes or 96 or 97 like he did last year. You're right. Antonio Brown's been the best receiver in football for like the last decade.

Yeah, A.J. Green, I think, though, you look at his track record, he could obviously finish ahead of those guys. He's just more injury prone. Keenan Allen doesn't score touchdowns. Do we think that's a real problem or a fluky problem? It's a real problem. Yeah. You know, you have Mike Williams doing what he did last year,

which I don't think he's going to score 11 touchdowns again, but, you know, eight plus is probably realistic. And then you get a guy that's going to be significant in the red zone, like Hunter Henry, plus with how they run the ball. So I don't see his touchdowns dramatically improving. He missed a few touchdowns last year. There was that one game where he was open in the end zone. He kicked the pylon because he was pissed off.

Yeah, I think Allen and Hilton touchdown-wise are pretty similar. I think Allen and Hilton yards-wise are pretty similar. The difference is I expect Allen to catch 20 more passes. Do you think that it makes sense to pass these guys up and just wait for that next group

of wide receivers? I can't imagine drafting Antonio Brown, and I still haven't ranked too high. I can imagine drafting Antonio Brown, but not at his ADP. So, yeah, all right. So the thing to note about Allen and Antonio Brown is that, like I said, they're 8-7. After that, Evans, Green, Cooper, Hilton, Diggs, Edelman, Thielen. But the top six wide receivers really feel like, you know, the creme de la creme with that's Hopkins to Beckham. It's Hopkins.

I won't say the order, but in no particular order because we're counting down. Hopkins, Beckham, Juju, Thomas, Adams, Julio. So, okay, we'll find out where they fall. Todd Gurley right now is number 18. And have things changed? Is he no longer number 18, Todd Gurley?

He's had to have fallen a little bit because I think we've all adjusted our rankings as the news that came out this week or the report that came out this week. There's another report today. Maurice Jones-Drew for the NFL Network said he spoke to Gurley, and Gurley told him he feels fine. You know, player to player, who knows how that goes.

I think the report, if I saw it correctly, they expect his touches to go down from 22 per game to about 17, 18. Snaps will come down, you know, so he may lose some, you know, just playing on third downs, not necessarily touching the ball on third downs. It could end up to a point where, and I'll say this, the same thing I said the other day, it's just an unknown, you know, so, you know, you can say, I just don't want to deal with the headache and you're not going to draft him, which I totally get. Or you could say at some point it becomes just an unbelievable value to take a chance on a guy who for the last two years has

been arguably the best running back in fantasy. And you get that and he's 75% of himself, 80% of himself, 80% of his production, 60% of his production. And you justify that with a third-round pick. So it's just all about your risk level. I thought what, not to give away the draft from the other day, but what Marone Berkson did was take him girly, fell to him in the middle of the third round, and then got Daryl Henderson in the seventh round.

That was a super flex draft? That was a super flex draft. So he probably goes in the middle of the third round, and they got Daryl Henderson in the seventh round. That was a super flex draft? That was a super flex draft. He probably goes in the second round when you take out the quarterbacks, and then Henderson maybe gets pushed up to the sixth round. Marone did say to me, he's like, oh, I got lucky. I probably should have taken him in the sixth round. That's a heavy investment to make in one backfield, but

if Gurley is right, you win. If Gurley is wrong and you have Henderson, you may still win anyway. The risk is not just that Gurley is right, you win. If Gurley is wrong and you have Henderson, you may still win anyway. The risk is not just that Gurley is 60% to 80% of his usual production. The risk is that he has a degenerative knee issue and is out. Obviously, the risk is he doesn't play or miss a significant time, but there's also the reward of he's not as bad as everybody's making out to be. Yeah, I was really, really, really tempted to take Todd Gurley.

I think Marone took up one spot in front of me, and that was middle of the third round, but there were quarterbacks. It was a two-quarterback league, essentially. I can tell you that in his final six games, Todd Gurley averaged 14.5 carries and 4.7 catches per game, so that's more than 17 touches. That's 19.2 touches per game. But that's kind of low for Gurley.

Touches, not carries. And he still was really good. In PPR, he was 17.75 fantasy points per game. I imagine that's probably like a top eight-ish running back. In fact, I can tell you what that would have been. 17.75 fantasy points per game last year. I would be ninth in my projections this year. Oh, okay.

One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. Yeah, it would have been about ninth. You'd be happy with that in round two? Yeah. You'd be thrilled with it in round two? What if you only had it for 11 games? Would you still be happy with it in round two? Which 11?

Can I have the fantasy playoffs? The first 11. No. Okay, the last 11. No, not 17. No. They're going to rest them in week 17 anyway. Week 6 through 16 is what I want.

Well, all right. So I think Gurley at 18 overall and then Nick Chubb at 17 overall, specifically in PPR. Because Chubb caught 20 passes in 16 games, but his 16-game pace in the 10 starts without Carlos Hyde, he was on pace for 32 catches. Gurley is going to have

a lot more than that. Well, I don't know because they've talked about what they may do to limit his time on the field is just not play him on passing downs. You don't think he'll catch two balls? I think he'll catch more than two balls a game. I think 32 is safe.

I think he'll catch more passes. If they both play 16 games, Gurley's going to out-catch Nick Chubb. Gurley, or Chubb, is one of the guys that I actually have Gurley projected. I've projected Gurley for 17 touches a game, and I actually have Gurley projected for more fantasy points than Chubb,

but I have Chubb ranked higher. Because of injury concerns. Right. So look, Nick Chubb actually can catch. Probably don't want to take these two guys together. Why? Because Chubb may lose a good portion of his touches.

From the second half of the season. If they trade Duke Johnson, things would be different. He had three straight games with three catches for 33 to 44 yards and two touchdowns. So Nick Chubb basically falls into my theory that pretty much every running back in the NFL can catch if they're given the opportunity. I just don't know that he'll get the opportunity.

He feels like what Jordan Howard was one of his best days. Though he did have a 69% catch rate, which is not very good for a running back. No. Because those are shorter passes. What do you think about him overall? Do you think Nick Chubb is a stud? He could be the best running back in football this year. Probably won't be, but he could be.

Offensive line got worse, but everything else around him got better. He's got the coach who put him in the lineup. I shouldn't say everything else got better because they did add a pretty significant piece to the backfield. He's just not there for the first eight games. And if Duke Johnson just gets his way and gets out of Cleveland,

we could legitimately see Chubb have a big role in the passing game. Three down back for the first eight games of the year, and if he succeeds, why would they take it all away from him? They're going to take something away from him. They're they're not training duke johnson though it doesn't i don't think it doesn't make sense the only way they do it is if another running back emerges for them in training camp that's the only way so i agree i think duke will be on the team until at least the trade deadline but chubb was so consistent last year when he had the opportunity 10 games 972 total yards eight total touchdowns 10 or more non-ppr points in the opportunity. 10 games, 972 total yards, 8 total touchdowns.

10 or more non-PPR points in 8 of those 10 games. He averaged 16 PPR points. Averaged 14 in non. And all of this without Odell Beckham. He averaged 16 PPR points. Remember, I said Gurley in his final 6 games. We didn't have as many touches. Averaged 17.75 fantasy points. Just keep it in mind.

But with more touches than he's going to have this year. And Chubb's got better knees. With more touches, you don't think... That was 19 is what you were giving him. I don't think he's getting 19. One of these running backs has arthritis. And one of them has Odell Beckham now on the team. Is that good or bad for Nick Chubb, having Beckham?

I think it's good because he won't see seven or eight in the box very often. He wasn't going to anyway. I would say the Browns. You say the Browns? I think the Rams just one to three. They do. The top three guys for the Rams, you know, Cup, hopefully 100%, Cooks and Woods. The top three guys for the Browns are Beckham, Landry, and...

Najoku. Najoku. Njoku. No, okay. Callaway, maybe. I'd say the Rams. I would say the Rams as well. Who's the better quarterback? Forget about their fantasy productions.

Better quarterback. Baker. Goff. Goff is the better quarterback. I don't think we know. Yeah, TBD. I think it's Baker. I agree with Heath.

TBD. I agree with Heath on this, but not Devontae Adams. Offensive line, same. Maybe the Rams get a little bit of a nudge. Play caller? It's got to go to the Rams. So who's in the better situation? Chubb, because he doesn't have arthritis.

Oh, health-wise, yes. We wouldn't have this debate. No, but Chubb's got Kareem Hunt. We haven't even talked about that. We alluded to it. I mean, it's a big factor. You know, it's similar to Gurley. There's an unknown.

You know, is Hunt going to step off the suspension and be a five-touch guy, a ten-touch guy, a no-touch guy? You know, I mean, who knows? If Hunt comes back in and, you know, the Browns feel like Chubb hasn't been producing at the level that they're hoping for, I'd be surprised that's the case. Do they all of a sudden say we have to get Kareem Hunt

40% of the snaps? Who knows? All right, let's go to, since it is such an unknown, let's go to wide receiver. Let's talk about Odell Beckham. He is wide receiver six and he is number 16 in the rankings. Well, it's been interesting with Beckham. I don't think he's ever finished higher than fourth at wide receiver.

He's consistently like a top five guy when he's healthy, but he's never finished higher than fourth, and he definitely has injury concern. So I look at that big six, you know, in some order, Beckham, Michael Thomas, Juju, Adams, Julio, and Hopkins. Does anybody have Beckham higher than sixth? I believe I do. No.

He's exactly sixth for me. I don't think I have him sixth in either. You have him seventh in PPR. Seventh in PPR and I think seventh in non-PPR. Behind Evans? No, he's sixth in non-PPR. So you have Evans there ahead of him. Yeah.

Okay. The thing I worry about, because the injuries are a concern, I just, and we don't know enough about Freddie Kitchens for me to say this definitively. I don't get the idea he is a throw the ball 170 times to one receiver coach.

Like Sean McVay is not. And a lot of the, Doug Peterson is not. A lot of the good offensive minds we've seen lately are we're not going to be that predictable. And so Beckham has thrived on 10-plus targets per game. 160 basically on average. Yeah. And I just don't think –

he's still very good, and he's going to be maybe even better on a per-target basis, but I don't think he gets that many targets. I agree. I think his efficiency can go up, though, with Baker at quarterback. And that's almost what you have to count on if you're taking him as a top 15 guy. Yeah, it's just like he's at 8.8 yards per target, which is very, very good. It's hard to be too much more efficient.

How about this stat? This is from CBSSports.com. It was written when he got traded. Since Beckham entered the league in 2014, he ranks third in receiving yards per game with 92.8, slotting in behind Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. All right, that's great. How about this, though?

In that span, Beckham also ranks third in touchdown catches with 44, even though he's missed 21 possible games. Put another way, DeAndre Hopkins ranks second with 45 touchdown catches, one more than Beckham, and Hopkins has played 20 more games than Beckham in that span. Yeah, but you gotta throw out 16 games of Hopkins because it was Brock Osweiler. But Hopkins still

caught like... That year didn't really exist. Fine, but he still caught like, what, nine touchdowns that year or something? I might be wrong about that uh oh gosh four okay okay you're right but give him 10 that year beckham's touchdown rate is amazing and he's still gonna be and it's still gonna be really high even though he's on a new team beckham's amazing you know it's just a matter of can he thrive with fewer targets. And it could go from 160 to 145.

I don't know what you have projected for you. Can he be the number one receiver in football? It's just hard to expect that given what the track record has been of missing time. And now in an offense that's different. Look, obviously Baker Mayfield now is better than Eli Manning now. It's not like Eli Manning has been bad for Odell Beckham. Forget about what your perception of Eli Manning is. He's made Odell Beckham an amazing receiver.

Okay, guys, let's move on. I think it's worth saying that any player that we say something negative about from this point forward, we're like saying, I might take them two picks later. We don't have these guys 15 picks apart anymore. All right, well, I'm going to say something negative about the next guy on our list. It's Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is number 15

overall in the countdown in wins. I love this stat. This is revolutionary. Yeah, it's great. They went 5-9 in his 14 games. In wins, Joe Mixon averaged 7.3 more carries

per game and about 83 more carries per game and about eight more fantasy points per game than he did in losses. Breaking news. Adam Azer reports. Seven point three more. Teams that are winning run the ball more. Seven point three more carries per game. That's a huge deal.

Eight fantasy points per game. And guess what? They sucked. And they might be bad again. But most of those losses came without A.J. Green. They actually got off to a pretty good start last year. But I thought it was interesting. I don't love running backs on bad teams.

That's a bit of a knock on running backs sometimes, especially if they don't catch a lot of passes. He got 43 in 14 games. That's pretty good. I thought it was an interesting stat. Jerk. three in 14 games. That's pretty good. You know, so I just, you know, I thought it was an interesting stat, jerk. How do you feel? What was the most common response to that tweet? Tom Fornelli, who works for us, wrote,

is Joe Mixon a Christmas movie? Which was... Tom Fornelli is one of the best Twitter follows. He is hilarious on Twitter. Okay, so anyway, Joe Mixon was the number nine running back in fantasy. Does he have number one RB potential? Only if the Bengals win 16 games.

I would say not in PPR, but maybe in non-PPR? The one thing to, you know, I think if you're looking for, like, the highest potential ceiling for him is that Zach Taylor uses him the way that Sean McVay uses Todd Gurley. And just puts him in these optimal situations of everything possible you can ask for. You know, not that he wasn't a three-down back before, but just that the scheme is that much better. The talent around him takes that leap forward. I'm excited about Mixon this year because I think, because I think he started to scratch the surface on his greatness. There's a floor.

They drafted two running backs for a reason. Geo's still there. We'll see what he loses in some capacity. But this is a guy, you go back to pedigree. If he didn't have the off-field situations coming out of Oklahoma, he would have been a first-round pick. He would have been one of the top running backs. He may have been the top running back drafted. No, he wouldn't have been the top, but he would have been two or three.

That was the four-net draft. Right. There's a lot to like about his situation. The Bengals improved their offensive line. Play calling improved. You have now a healthy A.J. Green, a healthy Tyler Boyd. Boyd missed the last two games with the MCL spring. So if they get everything clicking, I know it's a surprise.

I think that the Bengals may actually win some games, but I think they may win some games. Can you justify a first-round fantasy pick on Joe Mixon? Yes. Yeah. Okay. But also strategically, if you're in your draft and you see all these running backs going off the board and you're picking at the back end of round one

and you know one of these great receivers will be there waiting for you in round two, you take the running back. And I'm talking about David Johnson's off the board, Melvin Gordon's off the board. Well, we'll get in all these guys. Right, but this is the situation in which you're taking Mixon. Right, you got to use tears. Travis Kelsey is next.

Can you justify a first-round pick on Travis Kelsey? He's 14th overall. Just to let you know behind the scenes, Dave has left the chat room, Adam, so he does not pay attention to your... Get in the chat room, Dave. It's every day this week dave's left the chat room and i usually have the same response dave hates you um yes you could definitely in

any league and there's more of these with the tight end premium where it's 1.5 points per reception you definitely can in a ppr league's more difficult, but you could be justified. I definitely think that, you know, the sort of lightning of the harshness of the Tyreek Hill news that's gradually come in has affected my opinion of Kelsey. I mean, I still think he's amazing,

but I don't know that he can get 1300, 36 yards and 10 touchdowns again. That was an incredible year. But why would Tyreek Hill coming back make things worse for him based on seeing it last year? Because I expect the passing offense to be a little worse just because it was kind of historic last year. So if he played 16 games without Tyreek Hill,

I mean, he'd be an absolute monster. I still think, you know, look, no matter how this shakes out, I'd be very surprised if Tyreek Hill does not get some suspension. Four games, eight games, who knows? He's most likely going to miss some time. The NFL is typically ruled harder than sometimes the legal situation has been. And I don't think the question is really about Travis Kelsey's efficiency because that wild efficiency Mahomes

had last year wasn't really evident in Kelsey. He averaged 8.9 yards per target. He's averaged 9 for his career. He had a 68% catch rate. He's got a 70% catch rate for his career. He's averaged 13 yards per reception. He's averaged 12.8 for his career. It's a lot to ask, though,

to 103 catches, 1,336 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He's averaged 12.8 for his career. It's a lot to ask, though, to 103 catches, 1,336 yards, and 10 touchdowns. He's basically been like this for three years in a row. The only difference was he got 30 more targets. Well, yeah. I mean, that's a big deal. He had 150 targets. I don't know why you would expect his – you don't have to expect his targets to go down. I'm expecting Mahomes' efficiency to go down.

I don't know that he's necessarily going to throw less. The defense is still probably going to be awful. Yes, and the run game may take a step back. Look, forget about what Damian Williams did to close the season. Kareem Hunt was a monster. Yeah, but he hasn't been this good before. Who, Kelsey? Yeah, Kelsey.

No, he just hasn't had this opportunity. He's been every bit this good. Okay, but I see those numbers. They're eye-popping numbers. I just don't know how... It's going to be hard to do again. I understand what you're saying, but if you are of the mindset as a fantasy player that you want to get that position locked

down and have the security knowing that for 13 to 15 weeks, you do not have to make a change, or 13 to 14 weeks because of the bye week, you don't have to make a change in your roster. You take Kelsey at the bye week, you don't have to make a change in your roster, you take Kelsey at the back end of round one or beginning of round two. I love Travis Kelsey. I try to take him.

Usually it's more like 17 or 18, I think. He's never going to be there. No, I don't agree. I think Mixon, Beckham, and Chubb could easily go ahead of him, and then if that happens, he's 17th. Okay. So let's go to 13 and 12. Here are two running backs.

David Johnson is 12, and Le'Veon Bell is 13. Anybody like Bell better than David Johnson? No. Okay. Give me 30 seconds on Bell real quick, 30 seconds on johnson and then we'll we'll debate levy on bell is back in the saddle as a primary back for an nfl team he is in good shape he um needs to develop chemistry with his quarterback his offensive line is ugly his team will probably play from behind quite a bit,

and he just got paid to change teams. I do feel like we saw David Johnson's downside last year, and he was still a top 12 back in fantasy, and that is deceiving because he played 16 games, and he was really bad most of the time. I don't know that you can fully recognize what Le'Veon Bell's downside is with a much, much worse offensive

situation and offensive line. And he does have a very unique style of running that worked very well behind the Steelers offensive line with Ben Malthusberger and Antonio Brown. I don't know that it'll work quite as well here. Just before we get too far away from it, Danif on that record is reporting

that Tyreek Hill will probably be back with the team in training camp. Right. That doesn't mean he won't be suspended, but back with the team. No, right now he's not been allowed to be taking part in any team activities. Right. But I'm saying it doesn't mean that he won't be suspended for a certain amount of games, right? Alright, so who catches more passes?

Le'Veon Bell or David Johnson? It could be Johnson in that offense in Arizona. I've got Bell with 11 more catches. Who's got more upside? Johnson. I think Johnson. Johnson. It's that style.

It's that air raid style of offense, right? Combined. The depth chart in Arizona right now is David Johnson and nothing. How dare you say that about Chase Edmonds? The depth chart for New York is they're working out Bilal Powell to add back into the mix,

potentially with Elijah McGuire and Ty Montgomery and Trenton Cannon. Now, it doesn't mean everybody makes a team, but there's more likelihood that Adam Gase's track record suggests he will use multiple guys, not to the extent of Damien Williams and Kenyon Drake splitting time, or Drake and Frank Gore splitting time. It'll probably be a 70-30, 80-20 split.

But I think there's still chances that you can see Le'Veon Bell sitting down in some spots where you're never used to seeing him sit down. Okay, last question. If you draft Le'Veon Bell or David Johnson, are you confident? Are you psyched? Or are you nervous? Or both? Psyched for Johnson.

Nervous for Bell. Nervous for both. It's all about value. If you get one of these guys in the second round, you should be pretty thrilled about it. Well, let's pretend that we're taking them at the turn because they're 13 and 12 in our overall rankings. I mean, yeah.

Excited? Nervous? Well, first off, if you're not excited about taking these guys, then don't. Take a receiver. Because you have options at this point and a lot of good ones. All right, but can you play the game? Can you play the IPN? I said nervous. I'm asking Jamie.

I'm not nervous taking David Johnson. I'm nervous taking Le'Veon Bell, but that's why I don't take Le'Veon Bell. Alright, see, that's all I need. And just to let you know, their average draft position on Fancy Football Calculator, where would you think David Johnson's ADP is right now? 14. 10. 6. Where do you think Le'Veon Bell's ADP is right now? 14. 10. 6. Where do you think Le'Veon Bell's ADP is right now? 18. 59. 10.

9. Alright, we got three wide receivers in a row. 11, 10, and 9. Juju Smith-Schuster, Michael Thomas, and the way too low in the rankings, Devontae Adams. Thanks, Heath. Juju, Michael Thomas,

and Devontae Adams. Devontae Adams is ninth overall, and we have no debate over who the top four are, and he is way too low in the rankings? Yeah, he should be number one. Oh. He's wide receiver three. Juju's five, Thomas is four, Adams is three.

Anyone scare you here, Juju Thomas or Adams, or are they all safe and great and wonderful? The only thing that scares me with Juju is, can he handle being the number one guy? And obviously, I don't have it ranked that way, but if there is a question mark about it, that's what it would be for me. The only thing that scares me with Adams,

because I know Adam's going to make me talk about it, is we are talking about a guy that never had a thousand yards receiving before last year and never had more than 121 targets before last year he's always been reliable in terms of the touchdowns I'm not sure that with Matt LaFleur going to Green Bay this is going to remain an offense to where he gets 170 targets this year. I have him for 149. Even though the quarterback just said he wants to get more targets. He did say that.

Is Green Bay like Pittsburgh where the quarterback is the offensive coordinator? It might be. Then Devonta Adams is going to get 170 targets. I struggle, honestly, with Adams is number one for me in non-PPR, and I struggle with it in PPR. He's two behind Hopkins. I just think Hopkins will. I don't even know why,

because if QT and Fuller are healthy, there's going to be a target decline for him. It just has to happen. But, you know, I think Adams, as much as I love Geronimo Allison and, you know, Rogers is also talking up Valdez Scantling, I wouldn't be surprised, like last year, if he played the final game of the season,

he's the target leader at receiver. He's the target. He's the, um, number one PPR receiver. He was on a per game basis. I mean, there,

there, at some point, you know, you said this Heath and Dave said it during the week, you know, at, at, at some point when a guy has to get opportunities to become the thousand yard

guy and, you know, Adam says it's a lot, which is accurate. Aaron Rogers, number one guy is typically among the best fantasy receivers that we have. Yeah. Always.

Yeah. And this is clearly his number one guy. And what I love is the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns,

the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, the touchdowns, Green Bay wide receivers, at least one wide receiver in the top four in red zone targets in four of the last five seasons,

at least one. So Adams is going to be that guy. There's nothing that really concerns me in terms of he could be a total bust. I think with Juju, what Jamie mentioned is interesting. With Michael Thomas, he got 147 targets. That's a lot for a Saints wide receiver. And now they did bring in Jared Cook for what that's worth. They have some young receivers.

You could see with Hopkins, even Heath made the case with Adams, and now they did bring in Jared Cook for what that's worth. They have some young receivers. You could see with Hopkins, even Heath made the case with Adams, other guys taking some targets. Could you see that for Michael Thomas? Does he go down to the 130 target range? Because as great as he was last year, he played 16 games. He was number eight in non-PPR. He was number six in PPR. I don't know that he's a guaranteed first-round value,

especially if he loses like 15 targets. What do you guys think with Thomas? He's mega efficient. Didn't he have an 80% catch rate, Heath? I'm sorry. 85. 85% catch rate. And is it possible that the touchdowns with him are just fluky?

That he had 29 targets inside the 20 and 14 inside the 10? I think that's certainly possible. It hasn't. First off, he scored nine touchdowns in two out of three years, so it's not like he has a Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton problem. No, but he has a Julio Jones problem. He has a little better than Julio Jones. Julio Jones wishes he had a Michael Thomas problem.

That's true. But I don't worry as much about Thomas' targets this year just because he had 149 the year before. And it's not like... There's a difference between 149, which is a lot, but still within the range of normal, and 170. Okay. But we're comfortable taking all these guys?

Juju, Thomas, and Adams in the first round? Yes. Yep. Does Juju have Adams in the first round? Yes. Yep. Does Juju have number one wide receiver potential? Yes. Yep. He could have 190 targets this year, and he was one of the most efficient receivers in football last season.

He isn't the same type of receiver as Antonio Brown. He's going to get a lot of short area targets. Where he's absolutely special is his ability to make plays after the catch. Alvin Kamara might be the master at having defenders just slide off him like he's coded in Crisco. Juju is probably number two. He does a really good job of that. I wouldn't expect him to catch a bunch of deep balls.

I think most of the targets you'll see from him are going to be inside of 15 yards. That's not a bad thing. That's where a lot of those targets are going to be. He's the only player in NFL history with back-to-back years of 90-plus yard touchdown receptions. And a lot of that was short catch and runs. Yeah. He didn't have the big plays. All right, let me get to another

stealer. It's also a little fluky. Sorry, Adam, but it's a little fluky that Juju had 29 red zone targets, which was second in the NFL and came away with seven touchdowns. James Conner is number eight in our countdown here. Is there a big separation between James Conner and the five running backs that are ahead of him? I have James Conner fifth, so no, I don't think so. Not the one guy ahead of him in Gordon. There's a separation between the four guys ahead of him in Gordon there's a separation between

the four guys ahead of him sure okay do you think he gets feature work or will they actually mix someone else in there I'm still betting I'm getting feature work I would lean toward that way but I do think for what the Steelers have been

in the Mike Tomlin era that this will be the closest we see to a split because I don't think they drafted Benny Snell just to sit on the bench. And I don't think that what they got out of Jalen Samuels last year, plus wanting to make sure Connor is able to finish the season. Yeah. Like I don't, that's it for me.

I don't think he can get the Le'Veon Bell 400 touch or the Zeke or like Zeke and Barclay are the only two guys I have with over three 80, but I think he can be right there with Kamara and McCaffrey. And I don't know that Melvin Gordon's going over 310, 320. Biggest knock on him is that he's got some injury concerns.

Yeah. Alright. So is anybody avoiding James Conner 8th overall? I'm not taking him at 8th overall. I'd take him 5th. I have him ranked eighth at running back, but that doesn't have him eighth overall, so I wouldn't take him eighth overall, but I have no problem if that's the

best available player at that time. Alright, Julio Jones is next. He's seventh, and DeAndre Hopkins is fifth. Those are your top two wide receivers in PPR. You don't need to catch a lot of touchdowns when you catch 113 passes like Julio Jones did last year. Yeah, alright.

So we have a 7th overall and again Hopkins is 5th overall. I do think I said that Adams should be one. I was kind of joking around. I probably would take Hopkins ahead of him. But listen, we don't talk about this stat a lot, but I like to look at the percentage of targets

that a player gets on his team. DeAndre Hopkins in three of his last four seasons, other than the Osweiler season, 31%, 33.5%, 32%. That is like outrageously high. Okay, 25, 28%, that's kind of what I would expect from a lot of number ones.

I'd have to do a little bit more research, but I looked at like Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown's been about 26, 7% the last three seasons. Hopkins getting about a third of the targets. So, yeah, I mean, is that a reason to be nervous? For either of these guys, is there a reason to be nervous for Julio or Hopkins? If that happened once,

I would be nervous about it happening a second time. When it's happened as often as it's happened with Hopkins, and the coach is still the same, I just kind of assume that's what they want to do. We might have said exactly that after the first year, when he had a third of the target. Oh, there's no way he's going to have that many again. But this is the most talented receiving core he's been a part of. So if, and it's a huge if, if Will Fuller plays 13-plus games, if Kiki Kuti plays 10-plus games,

there's going to be a decline to what level, it's hard to say, but there will be a decline. 29%. I mean, yeah, it's still, but when you're talking about Hopkins versus Adams versus Julio versus Juju maybe, it's something to consider. Or even when you're talking about him versus those running backs. Well, when it comes to Julio,

why should I take Julio Jones over Devontae Adams? Devontae Adams has had 12, 10, and 13 touchdowns his last three seasons. Julio's had more than eight only once. Or has he ever had more than eight? Because he's going to get mega yardage. He's done that quite often. And I think the targets are going to be there for him again. So I'm taking Julio ahead of Devontae.

I think the difference at least 200 yards, maybe 300 to 400 yards. What do you think the red zone target difference is inside the 20? Oh, God. Not much. Adams and Jones? Not much. It's got to favor Adams by

seven targets. 25 to 12. 31 to 17. Like I said, 14 targets. Oh, okay. But the year before, 19 red zone. Like 17 is not bad. 19 red zone targets the year before. 22 red zone targets in 2015.

Jones just for whatever. It's the strangest thing. He gets doubled. It still feels totally fluky to me. And I still wouldn't be shocked if he had 12, 13 touchdowns. I wouldn't either but I feel very confident he's gonna have between 14 and 1600 yards yeah he's amazing all right Melvin Gordon is number six overall so it goes Julio Melvin Gordon DeAndre Hopkins and then

four running backs you know who they are but Melvin Gordon's number six overall. Is there anything that's keeping him from that group of four at the top? The way his workload was decreased last year, I think for me at least. The year before, and I'm trying to do the math really quick. I'm going to do a bad job of it, but he had

175 carries in 12 games. That's 14.5 carries per game. What were his catches? Four per game. That's why it's... 18? Okay. That's good.

But it's not what those guys in the top four, well, two of them at least, are going to do. Yeah, I mean, he was really... Gordon was so productive. And Hunter Henry's coming back, so maybe... I don't think he's going to score touchdowns quite as often as he did last year.

Yeah, 14 touchdowns in 12 games. Total touchdowns, 10 rushing, 4 receiving. And Heath, you would take Connor over Gordon? I would. Anybody else? No, I like Gordon better. I think talent-wise, the Chargers may be the best team in the AFC. So they could have some more opportunities with a better defense.

Offensive line is good. Still needs a little bit of an improvement. I didn't love their offseason there, but Rivers is still so good. Yes, they get Hunter Henry back, but they lose the combo of Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates. So there's production, you know, kind of negating itself. And we are down to our four

best players in fantasy in our top 50, top 150, rather, in PPR. Number four, Christian McCaffrey. Number two, Alvin Kamara. Wait, I skipped number three.

I skipped number three. What are you doing? Okay, I'm sorry. Number four, Christian McCaffrey. Number three, Alvin Kamara. Ten, seven, four. Three is Alvin Kamara. Two is Ezekiel Elliott. And why wouldn't a New Yorkork giant be number one i had

nothing to do with this saquon barkley i do remember tweeting at one point that saquon barkley is the best running back in football maybe i said he was the second best running back in football and people freaking destroyed me for it and now guess what we're taking him number one which means a lot of people must think he's the best running back in football only one of us has ranked number one. I do appreciate that our consensus reflects my thought for an order. I like that. Okay, so it's McCaffrey, Kamara, Elliott, Barkley.

If there's one guy— I love that order. It's perfect. Absolutely, and that's four to one, not one to four. If there's one guy that you absolutely would not take with the number one pick, it would be who? McCaffrey. McCaffrey. McCaffrey. Yes.

Okay. Who, where do we go from here? Heath, who's number one for you? To the end of the show? Ezekiel Elliott. Dave, who's number one for you? Zeke non-PPR, Kamara PPR. And Jamie, who's number one for you?

You read it already, so it's. Barkley. Genies. So, if I could apologize to my listeners, to our listeners right now. They're your listeners. I have a meeting that I'm five minutes late to. Oh, come on.

I have to go. I'm going to curse and make you edit it. When we come back, because we should spend at least 10 minutes probably debating these guys who should go one through four. We can't do that now. We've already got an hour and one minute in this show. No, we can't do it.

No, we really can't. No, we really can. It was Jamie's fault. He had an HQ thing to do. So we got started late. Plus, we're at an hour and two minutes. Thank you all for listening. On our next show, top four debate.

It's going to be awesome. Love to know who you would take number one overall in PPR. For Dave, for Jamie, for Heath, I am very sorry. And I am Adam Azer. Jamie, I have to go. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Wait, hold on. No, you don't want to miss this.

Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Wait, hold on. You don't want to miss this.