Fantasy Football Today - 06/11: Heath's Sleepers; Upside vs. Downside Debates (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 11, 2018

Out of Josh Gordon, DeMaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery, who has the most upside and who has the most downside (1:50)? Same question for Alex Collins, Joe Mixon and Rashaad Penny (6:02) as we start today's show debating those sets of WRs and RBs ... News and notes including Ty Montgomery's role in GB's offense (13:13), then we put Antonio Brown under the microscope (16:25). Should he go before the elite RBs? What do Brown and DeMaryius Thomas have in common? ... Heath reveals some early sleepers which are based on consensus rankings. He's got Jameis Winston (24:00), Isaiah Crowell (26:00) and a couple of WRs you can take late ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Monday, June 11th. What's going on, everybody?

On the show today, we are going to talk about a wide receiver who has finished no worse than 16th in PPR, six straight seasons, and why people don't seem very excited about him. We are going to put Antonio Brown under a microscope, and we are going to take a quick look at some of Heath Cummings' sleepers. Which of those three things are you most excited about? Dave. The sleepers. Heath. Which of those three things are you most excited about? Dave The sleepers Heath

I want to talk about this receiver that finished no worse than 16th That no one is excited That sounds like a sleeper It could be Jamie Hello Can we go get some burgers at IHOP? IHOP

It's IHOP I'm really disappointed in that, by the way What do you think it was going to be? What do you mean? It's IHOP. I'm really disappointed in that, by the way. Well, what did you think it was going to be? What do you mean? It's made for a spectacular day on Twitter. You in America. It's going to be breakfast. I mean, I haven't been to IHOP in so long, and I don't plan on going.

And for some reason, I'm still very angry about this. My 16-year-old son goes there regularly. Yeah. He gets a little bit of money in his pocket. It's IHOP. I go there once in a while. They've got very delicious chicken fajita omelets. in his pocket, it's IHOP. I go there once in a while. They've got very delicious chicken fajita omelets.

Luckily, it's only temporary. Who is that wide receiver that has been no worse than 16th and has been top five several times in the last six seasons? Does everybody know who I'm talking about? No. Demarius Thomas is who I'm talking about. I did

a few Twitter polls and I took a group of three receivers and then a group of three running backs, and I said, which of these three has the most upside? Which of these three has the most downside? So here's the group of wide receivers. Josh Gordon, Demarius Thomas, and Alshon Jeffrey. Josh Gordon, Demarius Thomas, and Alshon Jeffrey, and I figured they'll all be drafted around the same time.

Who's got the most upside? All right, what's your answer, and what do you think the people said? Gordon, Demarius Thomas, Alshon Jeffrey, most upside? It's Gordon, easily. It's Gordon. Yes, and that was the easy one. So Gordon had 82% of the vote. I was surprised it was that lopsided, but 82% of the vote for Gordon.

And then who's got the most downside? Josh Gordon, Demarius Thomas, or Alshon Jeffrey? The guy who could be banished from the NFL with one more slip-up. I'm going to say Alshon. Has more downside than Gordon? Josh Gordon has the most downside. Yeah. I'm going to assume that these guys are all playing football, and so I'm going to say Alshon.

Because the downside for all of them is zero. They could tear their ACL down. You are correct, but the public is going to assume that these guys are all playing football, and so I'm going to say Alshon. Because the downside for all of them is zero. They could tear their ACL. You are correct, but the public is going to say Gordon. Yes, agreed. The public did say Gordon at 49%. Alshon had the least amount of votes of the who has the most downside question. He had 17% of the vote, and Demarius Thomas had 34% of the vote. So Josh Gordon has by far the most upside and also the most downside. According of the vote. So, Alshon, Josh Gordon has by far the most upside

and also the most downside. According to the public. According to the public. It's a pretty recent poll, so still less than... We're getting close to 1,000 votes. Yeah, I thought it was interesting. Let's say they all play 16 games. Gordon has the most upside. Who has the most downside?

Gordon, Thomas, or Jeffrey? Alshon. By far. Why by far? I mean, the touchdowns are going to come down for him, and I don't think the other numbers will come up. You don't think the other numbers will come up? He'll have the least amount of yards if they all play 16 games. What? He's not going to be an 800

yard guy. He has been three years in a row. Okay. Has he been healthy all three years? Is he healthy now? You're saying he's going to play 16 games. I said they're all going to play 16 games. He's not going to average 50 yards per game. He played through an injury last year. So do you consider him healthy or unhealthy?

I would say I guess he was healthy last year, I guess. Right. So, I mean, if he plays 16 games, I don't know if he's playing all 16 healthy. We're not doing my bust today, so I don't want to get too far into Alshon. But they spread the ball around a ton. Running the ball, passing the ball, whatever they do, it works awesome for offense, but they spread it around. He had 120 targets last year.

He caught less than half of them. He's a little more touchdown dependent than the others. I think Josh Gordon caught fewer than half of his targets. Well, he did not have a good quarterback throwing him the football. Both of Alshon's quarterbacks were maybe better than any quarterback Josh Gordon has ever had. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Okay, but— That was Heath taking a shot at Wentz, just so you— Yeah. Josh Gordon has a quarterback that has never thrown for more than 3,300 yards. A little bit more than 3,300 yards. Do you see... He might not. I don't know if one of them will get to 3,300 yards.

Do you see performance downside for Josh Gordon? Have you looked at Josh Gordon lately? Not really. You see those pictures of him? He looks like Thanos. He's ripped. Do I know who Thanos is? Who is Thanos?

Oh, come on. I didn't see the movie, but you've got to know this, dude. I don't know. Is that Guardians of the Galaxy or Avengers? Well, I mean, yes. Avengers? Okay. Oh, Thanos is Thor's brother?

No. Okay. Oh, my gosh. I don't know. Leave your apartment for once. Wasn't Thanos the bad guy What was the bad guy from Buffy the Vampire Slayer That you know

We'll look that up Alright anyway I think Gordon to me is so interesting Because if you take him as your first wide receiver I mean that's a risky pick In my opinion. But I don't think that'll be the case unless you already have a couple of great running backs on your team.

Sure. In which case, you almost have to go that way. All right. I think we've exhausted this conversation. Let's go to the next Twitter poll. Which player in this group has the most upside? Which player has the most downside? The three running backs are Alex Collins, Joe Mixon, and Rashad Penny.

Alex Collins, Joe Mixon, and Rashad Penny. Which player has the most upside? I said Collins. I'm really torn between Collins and Mixon. Mixon has the most upside. But I'm very intrigued by Rashad Penny. So I thought that this would be close. It wasn't.

Joe Mixon, 68% of the vote for the most upside among Mixon, Collins, and Rashad Penny. Joe Mixon is your winner. Dave, an upset. You went with the guy in last place, Alex Collins. That's okay. I think he's got the most upside of the group. I like his offensive line the best.

His offense has proven to be run-centric before. That's what the Seahawks say they want to be this year. I'm not buying it. That's what the Bengals probably won't be this year. And of these three, I think he's the one who will share the least. All three are going to share, but I think he could end up sharing the least. And I think he's a pretty good receiver out of the backfield too. All right, so which player has the most downside, Alex Collins, Joe Mixon, or Rashad Penny?

Alex Collins, Joe Mixon, or Rashad Penny? Who has the most downside? This was closer. I think I'd say Penny. Penny? Yeah, Penny does Collins, Joe Mixon, or Rashad Penny? Who has the most downside? This was closer. I think I'd say Penny. Penny? Yeah, Penny does. I said Mixon. Because we've seen the down from Mixon before.

It's the same voters, so they like Mixon a lot. They have him with only 21% of the vote. Alex Collins leading the way, 43% of the vote for the most downside. I think that's probably because he could fumble three times in week one and all of a sudden he's not the starting running back anymore. We can say that about a lot of running backs though. But he fumbled four times last year. He's had a fumble problem.

It's probably something I was overlooking a little bit too much with Alex Collins. The Ravens weren't. They held him back because of it. I think Penny is going to become a better value because of all the Chris Carson talk at OTAs. All anybody at OTAs wants to talk about is Chris Carson.

Well, forget about that. I think Nixon's going to be the first one drafted of these three. For sure. Across the board. That's a round three, round four pick. And Collins will come after that. And then Penny figures to be maybe a round behind Collins as of now. I don't know.

He'll definitely be the best value of the three on draft day. It will be interesting. I think before this week there was a chance that Penny was going to be ahead of Alex Collins in ADP. I'm not sure now. That could still happen if he has a great preseason. Well, here, I'll tell you what it is on my fantasy. All right, we are looking up Alex Collins versus Rashad Penny.

Just to let you know, and this is factoring in Dynasty Leagues also, I think. Well, riveting. Joe Mixon is the 22nd player being drafted, which is absolutely true. That's a lot of dynasty. Wow. Okay. Yep. Rashad Penny is 41st, and Alex Collins is 60th.

But that's dynasty league? But that's dynasty. It's a lot of sense. Yeah, it's dynasty. Because one thing I noticed when we did my running back Dynasty rankings a month ago, and you guys, we were talking about how I was low on Alex Collins, and then I wouldn't look to consensus Dynasty rankings, and I was high on Alex Collins compared to what everybody views him in Dynasty.

So I think that's probably a lot of Dynasty leagues. Who would you draft first, Collins or Penny? In a seasonal. Collins. Jamie? Collins. That. Collins. Jamie? Collins. That's close. Adam?

Collins. Collins and Collins, yeah. But Collins and Mixon both have the opportunity, the bad opportunity to be in that category of players I really fear, which is guys who don't catch the ball and are on bad teams, bad offenses. Collins could catch the ball, I suppose, but he hasn't exactly shown it. I don't see Mixon being a huge factor in the passing game. No, Geo's going to have,

and I think Geo will probably take a little bit of the rushing work as well, but I think the most likely situation is all three of these guys are two down backs. Collins had 23 catches last year, and they all came in the final eight or nine games of the season. Yeah. I meant to say ten. Final ten games of the season. And in his last four games, he had 12 catches,

so his average was up a little bit by the end of the year. Now, there's still going to be sharing in Baltimore. I think Mixon could be a better pass catcher. He was in college, too. I think he could be. But it's just a matter of getting that opportunity because of what he said. He had one, two, three, four, five, six, seven games with at least three catches, and he missed two.

That was in college or last season? This is Joe Mixon last season. There's no question that he's a good pass-catching runner. It's more about Gio than it is Mixon. Yeah, exactly. But it could be both those guys. And I think with Collins and all three of these guys, Collins, Mixon, and Penny,

all three teams have tried to upgrade their offensive line. At least for Baltimore, it's about getting two guys back who missed either all or almost all of last year with injury. Marshall Yonda and Alex Lewis. For Cincinnati, they drafted a center in the first round, Billy Price. They traded for Cordy Glenn at left tackle. Seattle has a new offensive line coach. They brought in DJ Fluker from the Giants. They're hoping a full season from George Brown will help at left tackle. Dwayne Brown will help at left tackle. Dwayne Brown will help at left tackle.

And Ethan Posick, hopefully he gets better. But these are three kind of, you know, they're not amazing situations, right? Just in terms of offensive line. Pennies could evolve into an amazing situation. Okay. He has the best chance to have that type of David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Le'Veon Bell workload where he's just

dominating playing time. 70% of the time he's on the field. He's got the best shot. I might say Collins is second best. Alright, wrapping it up. Who's your favorite of the three? Say it again if you've already said it. Collins, Mixon, or Penny? I have Mixon ranked the highest.

Yeah, Mixon. Okay. All right, let's do some news and notes. First of all, Lothos was the bad guy in the Buffy the Vampire Slayer movie, the 1992 flick with Luke Perry and Chrissy Swanson. You've all seen it, right? No. Really?

It's pretty good. It's not something you'd remember or admit to. It's good. That's why I said good. It's not something you'd remember or admit to. It's good. That's why I said no. It's not as embarrassing as watching the show. Pete Carroll said that Tyler Lockett was not fully healthy last year. Does that matter to you? He's almost never fully healthy.

Okay, I guess that doesn't matter then. It doesn't matter. He's a great late-round flyer, especially best ball. Tyler Lockett. We got a report from ESPN's Packers reporter Rob Domofsky. He says Ty Montgomery appears set for a significant role in the offense. What does that mean to you guys, Ty Montgomery? He's probably their most refined pass-catching running back.

Oh, definitely. It's going to be a messy backfield all season. While everybody's healthy. If I was going to react to this news in my rankings, it would be moving Jamal Williams down a little bit more. So I asked Jamie and Dave, because Heath wasn't on the show, I think it was last week, is there a backfield that you're just avoiding?

I think the Jets were mentioned. And usually you look at a bad offense or a crowded backfield. You don't usually look at one of the best offenses in the NFL, but are you avoiding the Packers' backfield? No, but I would try and take the last one available. The same thing we talked about last week. Yeah, yeah. Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt said, take the last one available. The same thing we talked about last week. Yeah. Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Wisenhunt said Melvin Gordon could catch

more passes this year. He's already pretty good at that, but what do you make of that? Melvin Gordon could catch more passes. Why do they hate Austin Eckler? They don't. They lost Hunter Henry. They need somebody to catch passes. Yeah. He had 58 catches last year.

How many does he need to catch? Well, if I draft him to my fantasy team, there is no answer to that question. At least 58. More like 194. You think he gets – I mean, 58 is a lot of catches. You think Melvin Gordon's going to get more than that? What is he going to be, 65? It's not like he's going to turn into Kamara or McCaffrey.

Yeah, he was eighth with 58, but if he had just had 60, he would have been sixth because Carlos Hyde and the Sean McCoy had 59 catches last year. Odell Beckham will report to minicamp, according to ESPN. Colts rookie running back Naeem Hines has been their primary kick returner. That's on top of the things that he was spotted doing on offense during their workouts. He apparently has been lining up all over the place. They're going to mix and match him in. Okay, so give me your quick take on the Colts running back situation.

As long as DeMarco Murray doesn't sign with them, Marcus, Mar mack is going to be a good value hopefully he's healthy though i mean that's the the problem and hopefully their quarterback is healthy because that's the bigger problem right i hate to say it but i i might end up avoiding this backfield i don't want to because that offensive line is amazing and if andrew luck is andrew luck that's it's just an amazing spot to be in. But I don't know if there's going to be one guy who will be reliable week in and week out. Well, speaking of Andrew Luck, do you think he will throw a football in the month of June? No. No.

I'll say yes. So take that, America. Like a real-size, regulation-size football, Dave. The Duke. He's got to throw the Duke. The Duke, yeah. All right. Errol Thomas is not going to report to mandatory minicamp.

Little contract spat there. And it's time to put a first-round pick under the microscope. By the way, we're going to read your emails. Don't forget, big news today. Zach Martin signed a six-year contract extension for the Cowboys. Oh, okay. Thank you. We're going to read your emails later at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We're going to talk about Heath Sleepers in a little bit.

It is time to put a first-round pick under the microscope, and that would be Antonio Brown. We did DeAndre Hopkins last time, so let's go to Antonio Brown. Just simply put, guys, I cannot find one bad thing to say about Antonio Brown. I don't like his haircut. Oh, I do. It's bold. This has been riveting, so who's the next player we're talking about? No, we're putting him under the microscope.

He's not great at social media. Well, no, he is. He's just not great in his locker room and social media. Yeah, he's great for our purposes. See, it's like he does the flat top, and then there's another level to it. It's almost like a stair on top of his head. Yeah, it's like he does the flat top, and then there's another level to it. It's almost like a stair on top of his head.

Yeah, it's cool. Maybe I'm just jealous that I can't do that. All right, let me ask you this. Are you taking him ahead of the top running backs, Antonio Brown? Are you taking him ahead of the top running backs? No, not the top three. The only risk, I think, is if Ben Roethlisberger doesn't play. Because in his last five games over the last two seasons without Ben Roethlisberger,

Antonio Brown does not have a touchdown catch. In the first three games of those five, now four of them came in 2016, one last year. First three games without Roethlisberger over the last two seasons, he had a combined 111 yards. In the last two games, one in 2016, one in 2017, Brown did go over 100 yards twice. So if Brown isn't that interesting, then that's fine. I mean, he's steady. He's awesome. He's going to be 30 years old in July.

Let me make this comparison. What's so different? Okay, he's better than this guy. But what is so different about Antonio Brown And Demarius Thomas? Because I just told you that when Antonio Brown In the last five games over two seasons Without his quarterback Has not caught a touchdown And has had about 300 yards

In those five games Well, Demarius Thomas Was an elite wide receiver Before Peyton Manning retired. And even in the final year when it was Manning and Osweiler, he was really, really good. And they're the same age. So when I was doing the Antonio Brown research, ironically, or oddly, I guess,

it made me kind of a little bit more excited about Demarius Thomas. If they can just get good quarterback play from Case Keenum, I think I'm getting a little more excited about DT. I think it's fair to be a little more excited about Thomas with Keenum there because Keenum's better than anything that the Broncos have had arguably the last two seasons. Or maybe the last three is what I should say. The big difference is Demaryius Thomas is not getting 11 targets a game

like Antonio does. He's also breaking down. He's had hip problems the last couple of years. They've drafted replacements for him, two guys this year. Now, it didn't work out the last time they tried to draft somebody with Cody Latimer and set him around. He was a failure. But I think the writing's on the wall that they want to move on from Demaryius Thomas. I actually feel more nervous about Thomas despite the quarterback change because i i think we're

just starting to see him decline as we start to see with some receivers i i hope i'm wrong because he's been very good and like you said he's been good with good quarterback play but uh where he's being drafted where you have to draft him uh most likely in the round three early round four range i don't want him there and what's interesting is when i'm drafting him, when I'm taking Demarius, because I'm still taking him, I feel like he's the last best shot I have of getting a borderline number one, number two wide receiver. And that's if everything goes right for him, everything goes right for Case Keenum, everything goes right for the offensive line. There are a lot of ifs with Thomas, and certainly there are more ifs with him than there are with Antonio Brown.

The only if with Brown is Roethlisberger, which you just said. But we could say that about any quarterback. Here's the angle. Or any receiver and their quarterback. Here's the angle you should have used, Adam. Antonio Brown, 16-game pace with Todd Haley as offensive coordinator, 121 catches, 1,631 yards, and 11 touchdowns. Last year? Yeah, but the offensive coordinator is also the quarterback now. So if he gets hurt, the offensive coordinator goes also on the bench.

Without Todd Haley, he's never had a good year. Actually, he had one that was okay. He only scored two touchdowns. Well, conversely, Todd Haley's never had a good year without Antonio Brown. Oh, yeah, the Larry Fitzgerald year. You'd agree. Oh, that's right. I was thinking it was Chiefs tenure.

Brown's finished as a top three fantasy receiver each of the last four seasons. With Todd Haley. Well, yes. And he's posted 10 or more fantasy points 70% of the time. That's more than any other wide receiver. I find it funny that every time Heath tells a joke, he turns around to adam is i've been waiting approval yeah it's adam is his audience yes if he tells you the way that we're sitting in the room is adam is on skype behind heath right and so every time he tells a joke he like looks all the way back over and then he looks it up but it's not

just when and when there's a joke it's also – I almost think he does it when he's done talking just to make sure that Adam knows to pick up. I think there's something mechanical to it. Adam is the audience. I'm trying to see how it played with the audience. But even when you're not – just now you did it. You're not making a joke. Half the time Adam is not looking at you. Yeah, Adam almost never.

No. No, he's staring at the wonderful pictures on his wall. I have zero of those. I just put up – You could be in a jail cell and we won't know the difference. It's so true. Yeah, I have to definitely decorate around here. All right.

Is there any – I know where you were going with that. Is there any reason to draft DeAndre Hopkins ahead of Antonio Brown? Some people would do that, no? Heath, weren't you originally? Yes. Let's just say you believe how good Deshaun Watson was last year and you think he's going to be that good for 16 games. Or just take away Brock Osweiler.

Looking at the average draft position again on my fantasy league, and the reason I keep saying that is because ours are not up to par yet. Our ADP is not up to par yet. Hopkins is being drafted as the number one wide receiver. Yeah, I don't get it. Dynasty, right. Okay. That makes sense.

And seasonal, I just, I don't, I can't support it. They're going to be close. They're going to be close. All righty. Hey, I got an email to read. This is from Wes. He says, Forgot about Father's Day until last night.

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So next time you need to go to a game or a concert or comedy or a theater, if you want a fully guaranteed purchase, you go to SeatGeek. You go to SeatGeek.com or get that app, put it on your phone, just like I have, just like all of us have. We always use SeatGeek. I use it all the time. I use it for the Yankees games, concerts. I've used it for football.

I mean, honestly, if I need to go to an event, SeatGeek is the first place I check. So use the code FFT, and if you do that, you will get $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase. Please feel free to tweet me or email me if you've forgotten the code, but it is FFT, as in fantasy football today. For $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase, download the app and use the code FFT. Heath Sleepers. All right. What do you got for me? Jameis Winston.

Then he turns to look at me as I approve. I was just waiting for validation. I knew you would like that one. What is this based on, though? Yes. It's too on, though? Yes. It's too early, as Jamie said. ADP in most places, and best ball ADP is pretty good right now because there's been a bunch of best ball drafts,

but that's not what we're doing sleepers for. My fantasy league is pretty heavily influenced by Dynasty. Most of the other ADPs just don't have enough drafts yet to make a lot of sense. So I went by the consensus rankings on fantasy pros. I think that'll do a pretty good job of pointing us in the direction of where people are going to be drafted. Jameis Winston is at quarterback 15 currently, and it's pretty easy to see why he's being slept on.

It's because of the injuries last year. And even if you look at his per game basis pace, something you brought up before, Adam, it doesn't show you the true Jameis Winston from last year because he had a couple of partial games. You look at the games when he played a full game last year, and he was on pace for almost 5,000 yards. Right, 4,910. Would have been the most last year.

It would have been the fourth most in 2016, but he would have blown away the rest of the NFL last year by 300 yards. And not just that, but looking at the other numbers that I look at, yards per attempt, he had a career best. Interception percentage, he had a career best. It was his best quarterback rating. He took a step forward last year. If he plays 16 games this year, he's got top five upside.

And you said Jameis Winston is 15th in the consensus rankings, and that's exactly where Dave Richard has him. Jamie has Jameis 13th, and you have Jameis, you Heath Cummings have Jameis Winston 9th at quarterback. Bold. All right. Any comments on Jameis, guys? No. I think he's one of several excellent quarterback values that you can find late on draft day. I wouldn't reach for him at all. And we've got maybe a little bit more controversy with this next one. A running back who's the 37th running back in the consensus rankings, Heath.

Oh, I'm just going to say that. Yes, Isaiah Cruel. Yeah. I get why he is being discounted. He's on a bad team, and he's going to have to share the work with Bilal Powell. That's also been the story of his career, on a bad team, sharing the load with a very good pass-catching running back. And he's never, well, at least in the last three years, been this bad.

So I don't really see any reason to expect him to be worse than he's been the last three years, which is either a low-end number two running back or a high-end flex. I just don't want him on my team. I know that he's certainly capable of meeting that expectation, but I don't see upside with him at all. Well, upside's relative. If he's the 37th running back being drafted and he's available in the 10th round,

he's got a lot of upside from there. So this is Isaiah Crowell. Who's being ranked around Isaiah Crowell if you have that available? Yeah, I could absolutely pull that up for you very shortly because I was very ready for you to ask me that question. Well, we're also going to talk about a wide receiver, two wide receivers that are sleepers, according to Heath. And we already spoke about Jameis Winston. Right now we're discussing Isaiah Crowell, and we are killing time.

How do I do? Yeah, and I am looking at the consensus running back rankings. And we'll just start at number 30, Marshawn Lynch. Number 31 is Royce Freeman. Number 32 is Marlon Mack. Number 33 is Tariq Cohen. These are non-PPR. Number 34 is Chris Thompson.

Number 35 is Rex Burkhead. And Crowell's fallen to 40th now, behind C.J. Anderson, Jamal Williams, Kerryon Johnson. I agree with that all the way. I would say he will outscore 70% of that list, and he may outscore a few of the guys that are ranked in the 20s. Jamie, thoughts on Crowell to wrap it up? I think he's in the right range.

He should be, if you're optimistic about him, somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 with these other guys. If you're pessimistic, 40. So the workload is the thing that will probably make or break him, which is the case clearly for most players. But I just wonder, I think Bilal Powell's role is kind of solidified. He's going to be a change of pace guy. He's going to play on passing downs. But can Crowell sort of solidify himself as the first and second down guy without question? Because they have some interesting options there.

They took a flyer, which I think was a smart move on Thomas Rawls, who could easily be an annoyance to Crowell if he makes the team. Elijah McGuire, somebody they drafted last year, who I was actually excited about before they signed Crowell because I thought he could have that role. And then they drafted Trenton Cannon, who could also be in the mix again if he makes the team. I don't think all those guys are making the team. That's the problem. But he's right. When Crowell's had an opportunity, he's been serviceable.

He's not somebody I think is going to win you a lot of fancy weeks, but he's not going to kill you. But Dave's's right. When Corral's had an opportunity, he's been serviceable. He's not somebody I think is going to win you a lot of fancy weeks, but he's not going to kill you. But Dave's also right. It's a backfield you want to avoid. It's a bad offensive line. It's a potentially bad quarterback situation if, in fact, they go to Sam Darnold or Teddy Bridgewater, who knows what he has left, and McCown has trouble staying healthy.

So it's a team that's going to be trailing a lot, most likely, and that's not going to lead to what should be a physical type of runner getting the carries that he needs. I also wonder how much we can trust the Jets to use Bilal Powell properly because they seem clueless. His catches last three years, 47 in only 11 games, then 58. He had 23 catches last year. What was that all about?

He barely caught the ball in the second half. They just decided, no, he's not our pass-catching running back anymore. Well, if they don't throw him the ball, Isaiah Crowell does have a 40-catch year on his resume. All right, a couple of wide receivers who are sleepers. Heath, I'm going to throw it to you. You're going to tell me who the 44th wide receiver in consensus rankings is, and he is a sleeper for you. I think we've already fought about this guy, but it's Kelvin Benjamin. Who fought?

At 44. I think he's about 15 spots too low. You and I fought about him? What? I don't remember who I fought with him about. It was during the Julian Edelman debate, which I've already won. Congratulations on that one. Thank you.

You knew. You had the inside scoop. This is a bad situation, but I just – I have a hard time seeing him getting less than 110 targets. And if he's going to get that many targets, he's going to be a number three wide receiver at worst and maybe a high end number three. Do you know how he's done the previous two seasons when he's had a lot of targets? How he's finished in fantasy? Yeah, he's been a top 25 receiver. Top 20.

He's made it. He's done it now it's with cam newton at quarterback in carolina this is buffalo and obviously the quarterback situation in buffalo is is nothing pretty but i agree with you volume should be in his favor so long he's as he's on the field he's lost weight came to minicamp uh slimmer he says he's stronger and made a fancy one-handed catch that was caught on cameras that you might have seen on social media. And I feel about Kelvin Benjamin

the way you feel about Isaiah Crowell. You're taking him so late in the draft that there's no harm, there's no risk, but I think there's genuine upside with Benjamin because we've seen it before where he just falls into numbers because of all the targets he gets.

All right, Calvin Benjamin. Would you rather have Calvin Benjamin or Nelson Aguilar? Benjamin. Dave, Jamie? Calvin Benjamin or Nelson Aguilar? Benjamin. I have Aguilar two spots higher. All right.

Calvin Benjamin or Corey Davis? Benjamin. I'll take Davis' upside. Me too. I like the quarterback situation better. I love the offensive coordinator. They're going to – they both should see a lot of targets in bad receiving course. Last sleeper, Heath.

Do not disrespect Rashard Matthews. It's not disrespecting him, but he's not a star. I mean. The other competition for Kelvin Benjamin is Zay Jones. Yes, but the quarterback situation for Kelvin Benjamin is awful. It's a lot worse. All right, last wide receiver, last sleeper. So basically you have sleepers, breakouts, and busts coming out on the website this week.

Yes, this week. Yeah, so we're just going to give you a small sample of it. But another sleeper wide receiver is... In the very last round of your draft, probably no matter how many rounds it is, because he's wide receiver 70, you better call Tyrell. Tyrell Williams, the forgotten man from 2017, because Keenan Allen stayed healthy, only got 69 targets. The funny thing is he was actually more productive with those targets

than he was during his breakout year. He averaged 16.9 yards per reception, caught a higher percentage of those targets. And I had just completely written him off. I kind of did too, until Hunter Henry got hurt. And Dave said it when they were talking about throwing the ball more to Melvin Gordon. This is a team who's thrown the ball to tight ends 150 times a year. I don't care who they sign at this point. The tight ends aren't getting 150 targets in this

offense this year. They're going to have to spread it around to running backs and wide receivers. You could, if you prefer, insert Mike Williams' name in here, and it would fit just as well. Right. So that was going to be my question. Why Tyrell Williams over Mike mike williams and who would you guys rather have because tyrell williams has been a good in receiver in the nfl and mike williams never got back to looking like college mike if if this during training camp he starts looking like college mike williams again i could be convinced i was very high on tyrell at this time last year and we now saw what a season with Williams looks like. Tyrell Williams looks like when Keenan Allen is healthy and playing at his best. Because two years ago, that wasn't the case.

Keenan Allen was hurt. They needed Tyrell. And he came through with 1,000 yards, seven touchdowns, and a 58% catch rate. I don't see him as a reliable fantasy receiver. I think he's got his role as a big play threat for the Chargers, but he's one of two guys that can do

that for them. They have Travis Benjamin for the same role. I don't think he's going to be a regular down player for the Chargers unless there's another injury on top of Hunter Henry's injury. Are you on Team Mike Williams, Dave? Say that again? You're on Team Mike Williams?

I'm really on Team Keenan Allen. Okay. All right, well, somebody's got to pick up the slack. Somebody else is going to have to be good, or he's going to get 200 targets, and then he's the number one receiver. And he might. Yeah, or if he's the only good one, then rivers is not going to have a very good year unless of course uh melvin gordon catches the 148 passes that dave projected that he would i did go search for positive mike williams buzz from the summer and the most

positive thing you can find is mike williams returns to practice after missing part of camp with hamstring that's great that's a great. And it's better than having him sit out. He did part of it. Yes. Not all of it. Well, if Mike Williams is sitting on his butt and needs something to do and wants to watch some TV, but let's just say he cut the cord, he doesn't have cable anymore, well, get yourself a Roku.

Go to Roku.com, everybody. R-O-K-U.com. I don't know about Dave and Jamie, but I do know that Heath and I are habitual Roku users. I freaking love my Roku. I watch basically anything I want on there, including live sports. And I watch the CBS Sports app, so I watch HQ on Roku. If you have any subscriptions to any of the professional sports league apps, they're all available on Roku.

You can stream them right to your TV. If you don't have a premium subscription, you can watch your favorite local teams live with apps through many cable providers. And movies and TV shows, how about more than 500,000 available across free and paid channels? If you don't know what I'm talking about, you don't know what a Roku is, a little tiny box. You plug it. It's basically like a small cable box, right? And you put it into your TV and you put any app on there you want, Netflix, Amazon Prime, Showtime, HBO, whatever.

And you just watch TV that way. It's streaming. It starts at $29.99. And a lot of those apps are free. So $29.99. Go to Roku.com, R-O-K-U.com. Really, really cool. It's kind of one of those things like the first time I had TiVo, I was like, oh my God, this changed my life. That's how I feel about Roku.com R-O-K-U.com Really, really cool It's kind of one of those things like

The first time I had TiVo I was like, oh my god, this changed my life That's how I feel about Roku now Let's read some emails FantasyFootball at CBSi.com FantasyFootball at CBSi.com Matt from a town in East Texas Beaumont

Hey, FFT version of NonZeroChance We need a band name Yeah, that's our band name Me, Scott, Heath, and Chris On the baseball show Alright, listeners We need a band name If the four of us, me, Dave, Jamie, Heath

Were in a band, what would our band name be? It might be easier after Dave does his rap So that they know what type of voice Dave has Could be But anyway, open submissions Let us know after Dave does his rep so that they know what type of voice Dave has. Could be. But anyway, open submissions. Let us know. Here's a question from Matt in Beaumont, Texas.

That's where my grandmother's from. Aw. 12-team half-point PPR Dynasty League. I have the third pick of the first round of our rookie draft. I am trying to trade up for the first pick to get Saquon Barkley. What should I offer or how much should I be willing to offer in future years to trade up two spots? He has the third pick. He wants the first pick.

He also has – he has the third and the eighth pick of round one and round two. So, like, would you give up 1.3 and 1.8 to get 1.1? I would not. I absolutely would. You would? If that's all it took to get Saquon Barkley, I would absolutely do that. I'm trading, what am I trading?

Geis or Penny plus one of the receivers for Saquon Barkley? Last year you might have been trading Kareem Hunt and Kamara for Leonard Fournette. To me, it's not quite the same thing. I don't look at Fournette and Barkley the same way. Right. You don't, huh? I look at Barkley as a fantasy first-round run back for a long time. That's the conversation we were having about Fournette last year. I think it's very possible that he is.

I'm not trying to downplay how good I think Barkley is going to be. I would just rather have two shots in the top eight than that. I would do 2.8 and 1.3. I wouldn't do that. If I've got 1.1, there's not a chance in the world I'm doing that. Wait, Heath, you

wouldn't do 1.3 and 2.3? Because he's got... So when we say 1.3, we mean third pick of the first round. 1.8 is eighth pick of the first round. 1.3, 1.8, 2.3, 2.8. Those are Matt's first four picks. I'd do it for 1.3 and 2.3. That's exactly what I was going to say.

Or – It wouldn't get done. I would say 1.8, 2.3, and 2.8. Would you do it for the first three picks? Because I'm not entertaining it if I've got 1.1 unless – I wouldn't even think about it unless I was getting third overall, eighth overall, third pick in round two. Yeah, but if your team is so terrible, though, so terrible, you need parts. That's the other thing.

What if my team had Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck last year and it fell apart? I still have a good team. You're still falling apart with Andrew Luck. But you need parts. I mean, look, we have a scenario in our Dynasty League. The team that finished last, the office Dynasty League that we have, was Will Brinson, and he had Todd Gurley, and he would not – I told you what I offered him.

I offered him my three first-round picks for the next three years and my two second-round picks over the next two years and a third-round pick on top of it. And he said no. I understand why he said no, but he thinks he could rebound quickly because he has Gurley and Barkley to lead the way. So in his situation, it's fine. In other situations, you could have Andrew Luck.

You don't know what he's going to be. You could have – you're banking on Dez Bryant for the next two, three years. You're banking on, I don't know, pick another receiver. Another running back. You didn't think DeMarco Murray was going to be done. So it all depends. It's case by case. But if you can get good parts and to Heath's point,

if you could end up with this year's Kamara, this year's Kareem Hunt, who knows who that might be? Kalen Balazs, Naeem Hines. But what's a fair trade? Because I understand what you're saying. I think if you can get three, the first pick in the third round, maybe it's three and eight to get Barkley.

1.3 and 1.8? I don't know if I'm giving up three picks in the first 15. And that would be like my starting point. I don't even know if I would do it. 1.3 and 2.3 seems like what I would throw out if I were you, Matt, because I feel like that's pretty reasonable to give up, to move up two spots. But you're not thinking about it the right way. Why?

You're thinking about it as, oh, I only have to move up two spots in the draft. The difference between the talent that you get at 1.1 and 1.3 is a lot more than just two slots in the draft. If I were him, I would trade 1.3 and 2.3. We're taking Saquon in the first round of redrafts. Dave, hold on, guys. I'm just saying, I would

trade 1.3 and 2.3 for 1.1. So would you, Dave? Of course I would. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. So do that, man. That's the.3 for 1.1. So would you, Dave? Of course I would. Yeah, yeah. That's what I'm saying. So do that, man. That's the advice I'm giving you. Not if I had 1.1.

I know. I know. You don't think it's enough. I think it's interesting. Throw in a veteran that you don't necessarily love but, again, could help somebody else, especially somebody that may have some name value like, say, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, somebody that you can use, the other person can use. Again, I understand where Dave's coming from.

It's hard to get him out of there, get him out of the spot, but you've got to at least try. Billy from an undisclosed location. Do we want to disclose it? I'll disclose it. Sorry, Billy. Ponca City, Oklahoma. Hey, J-A-M-I-E- A-Z-E-R, and Dave Richards.

Excellent. Misspelled. I think you guys have all gone crazy on Derrick Henry. I don't know why you all seem to assume he will get a big uptick in work and become a monster. Henry's been good in the fourth quarter against tired defense, and I don't know why they would change his role. Deion Lewis has proven he's a very good and versatile running back, be a steal steal this year.

Book it. I don't think he's going to be a steal based on the consensus rankings. He's at like 26 or 27 at running back. Okay. Yeah, I don't know how we all feel about Derrick Henry. I know how I feel about Derrick Henry. I'm not really feeling that threatened by the threat of Deion Lewis. I do think Henry's the touchdown guy, and I don't think that they need to just use him in the fourth

quarter. I think he's better than that. I think Henry is the goal line guy, not necessarily the touchdown guy, and certainly not the red zone guy. What I'm worried about is when a Patriots running back looks good in New England and then changes teams, is it really the same thing? Because Deion Lewis is going from playing alongside Tom Brady in a very explosive offense to playing alongside Marcus Mariota. Mariota is very good, but defenses don't play Mariota the same way that they play Brady. And that means that Lewis won't see quite the same type of looks defensively. And there's no doubt he's going to have to share with Henry unless Henry just shows up overweight or, you know, hamstring injury happens to him instead of Lewis and training

camp. So a million things that could happen. But if everybody's healthy, how do you get away from from the bull that is Derek Henry? Is there is there a big enough sample size of running backs that have left the Patriots in the Tom Brady era, which is obviously a big era, that have gone elsewhere? Because usually they take retread guys. Well, LeGarrette Blunt's done it four times. And he wins Super Bowls every time he leaves.

Yeah. But, you know, it isn't as good of a running environment, I guess. But to Jamie's point, I don't know if that's necessarily the best barometer. But I think we've seen it a bunch of times. I'm just like thinking, who is it though? But we've seen a bunch of times where we've seen running backs do well in one town. And then they go to a different town and it's a totally different offense. That's the word free agent.

Every free agent that leaves one place typically struggles when they go someplace else. But I don't know if there's a – is there even somebody that's done it? I mean, Deion Lewis isn't exactly young in his career, but is there guys – I see you're looking it up, Heath. Is there guys that have done it, that have left and gone elsewhere? I'm just trying to think. Jonas Gray just disappeared from the face of the earth. Lawrence Maroney disappeared from the face of the earth. Steven Ridley is technically still in the NFL.

It doesn't bode well for Deion Lewis, does it? No, but I mean, Lewis is actually somebody that had an opportunity to leave and go elsewhere to get a prominent role, which he is going to have. Sammy Morris? Yeah, the guys that they have, they just don't go elsewhere because they either take them at the end of their careers or they just have never really played. Jarvis Green-Ellis went to Cincinnati and ran for 1,000 yards on like 400 carries.

All right, so let me just wrap it up because these are good points. I mean, different offensive coordinator. I don't necessarily agree with the fourth quarter tire defense thing, but is it possible that Derrick Henry's role gets smaller? Deion Lewis would have to play bigger. Smaller than what it's been with DeMarco Murray or smaller than when he was by himself last year? Because clearly the answer, I think, is no to both.

He's not going to be worse than he was with DeMarco Murray. That's not going to happen. And he's probably not going to have the same workload that he had when DeMarco Murray got hurt. But I still think, I mean, Adam, I tend to agree with the numbers you threw out, which is he has a chance to rush for right around 1,000 yards, and I think he's going to be close to double digits in touchdowns. I know that's fluky because we haven't seen that very often the last couple years.

You asked us that number, what was it, seven or nine over the last two years? What, double digit rushing touchdowns? Double digit touchdowns. Well, it was like six two years ago and one last year or something like that. I think it was three last year you said. Oh, three last year. Yeah. Okay, so it was six.

It's either seven or nine, whatever it was. So, you know, can he score eight touchdowns? Probably. Can he rush for 800 yards to 1,000 yards? Probably. Can he get you, you know, maybe 200 yards passing or receiving? Probably. So, Deion Lewis has got one time in his career where he's played 16 games.

To Dave's point, he is coming off of a system where he was great. As we saw last year, if you break down the numbers, when Rex Burkhead was healthy versus Rex Burkhead not being there, Deion Lewis wasn't the same. Yeah. All right then, moving on. Bryce from Calgary, Alberta. What do you see the ceiling for Deontay Foreman this season?

Oh, I think the ceiling is like borderline number one running back. But the ceiling involves him being fully recovered from an injury that very few offensive players have ever fully recovered from. What if I put a different spin on this? What's his ceiling in 10 games? say he starts on the pup list lamar miller's got to be hurt or just completely benched i think i think foreman has a chance to be the lead back in this offense agreed but lead back in a shared situation he's not going to be yeah yeah he's not 20 plus carries no no but he's first down second down down, short yardage goal line. Maybe.

And Lamar Miller's two-minute drill, third down, second and long. Could be Alfred Blue. I mean, this could be a backfield to avoid if Deontay Foreman's healthy. Alex Collins last year finished as the 18th best running back in non-PPR, 21st in PPR. So 18th in non-PPR, 21st in PPR. Do you think, so 18th in non-PPR, 21st in PPR. Do you think Deontay Foreman has a better ceiling, higher ceiling this year than what we saw from Alex Collins last year?

No. On a per game basis, yes. Okay. This is from Aaron Sharp. Keep two. Alvin Kamara is standard scoring. Alvin Kamara in the eighth, Josh Gordon in the 14th, Juju Smith-Schuster in the 14th. Gordon and Kamara is standard scoring. Alvin Kamara in the eighth. Josh Gordon in the 14th. Juju Smith-Schuster in the 14th.

Gordon and Kamara. Hell yeah. I would say Gordon and Kamara as long as it's not a keep forever. I'd rather have Juju in like a dynasty type league. Than who? Gordon? Gordon. Yeah.

All right. From Chris. That's interesting. Let's say three years from now. Is Gordon in Mayfield better than Rudolph in Juju? I'm more worried in three years from now is Gordon in the league. Sure. All right, this is from Chris.

Where's Chris from? Nampa, Idaho. Hey, Ed, Phillip, and Jonathan. Dave, I'm looking at you. Hurricanes. Yeah. Ed Reed, Phillip Buchanan, Jonathan Vilma. I have the choice of keeping Todd Gurley fifth overall or Fournette 20th overall.

Which would you prefer, Gurley fifth or Fournette 20th? Gurley. So does he get his number five overall pick back? Probably. If he keeps Fournette, you mean? Yeah. So Fournette and a one. So Fournette and five.

Fournette and five. Which of your factoring keepers could be Barkley? Would you rather have Fournette and Barkley or Gurley and... A receiver? Yeah. A moderate receiver? Moderate running back? Well, moderate.

I mean it could be like Devontae Adams, right? He's probably kept. Somebody like that. Is it a one-keeper league? I don't know. I don't know. Why do you do this to me? No, but I mean I think that's important because it's what you're getting with keeping Fournette in the second round.

Yeah. In a vacuum, which value do you like better? And also, by the way, I think PPR versus non-PPR makes a big difference here, right? Like if it's PPR. Everything makes a difference. Yeah, if it's PPR, I think Gurley 5 over Fournette for sure. If it's non-PPR, that's pretty tough. Well, what if it's half PPR?

Yeah, I don't know. All right, so everybody just give an answer. Gurley at 5 or Fournette at 20? I'll take Fournette. Gurley. Gurley. All right, here's an email from Coder from Flint. Sorry, I probably mispronounced your name.

Dear Trey, Paige, Gordon, Fishman, and Cheech. Not a clue. I just finished drafting a 10-team non-PPR snake with the fifth overall pick. I took David Johnson, then Dalvin Cook, then Rob Gronkowski. Wow. All right, David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Rob Gronkowski in a non-PPR league. I really feel like value kept falling to me, so I continued hammering the running back position.

So I have Jordan Howard, Ronald Jones, Sonny Michel, Kerryon Williamson, or Kerryon Johnson, Aaron Jones, and Rex Burkhead. But he only has four receivers. Stefan Diggs, Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb, and Kelvin Benjamin.

That's a fail. That's too many running backs. What's the point? And his starting quarterback is Mitch Trubisky. Yeah, it's a fail. Can't do it. There's no way that's the best quarterback still left. Oh, wow. You don't have to go that crazy on running backs.

This is a good, like, we talk about how you want to stockpile running backs late, but it's also a good thing about what happens early in the draft should maybe change your strategy later in the draft. If you've got David Johnson and Dalvin Cook and Jordan Howard and Ronald Jones, you probably don't need to take a running back for a while. Yeah. P.S., Dave, my girlfriend's kids call Lou Malnati's pizza in Chicago Illuminati's pizza.

Oh, my kids would probably do that if they put two and two together like his kids did. That's smart. Yeah. That's very clever. Adam, you had some Lou Malnati's. I did. How did you like it? Well, so here's the thing.

I had it like catered for like 200 people. So I think I said – I asked my friend if Lou Malnati's is regularly a 10, what is this? And he said like – he lived in Chicago. He said like six or seven. But I liked it. I just – I know it would be better if I went to the restaurant. I did like it. What was the – what's the other one that everybody likes?

Giordano's, Uno's, Due's. I think I had Giordano's two years ago. Domino's. I don't know what I like better, honestly. I really like Giordano's, but it was so filling. It's barely pizza, but it's so good. All right, two more. Greg Cohen from Rockville, Maryland.

I'm in a keeper league. You can take a player you drafted in the previous year three rounds earlier. So Kareem Hunt in the second or Edelman in the 13th round? I have the seventh pick, so Hunt would be pick 18 overall. Kareem Hunt in the second round or Edelman in the 18th round? 18th round. What did I say? 13th round.

28th round, I'm taking Kareem Hunt. I am too. Yeah. And finally, Mike from north of everywhere in the U.S. that is not Toronto. Hmm. Peterborough. Where's that? It's east, northeast of Toronto.

Okay. This is an interesting question. You guys have so much info for amazing weekends in NFL and college games. As a Canadian fanatic, how do I look up college games to figure out which weekends I want to come down? Is there a place I can see each state's games or anything? More information is better. So he wants to go to some college football games. Why don't we just tell him which games to go to?

Go to Michigan, Ohio State. I was just thinking go to CBSSports to? Go to Michigan, Ohio State. I was just thinking go to CBSSports.com and look at our scoreboard, and you can see all of the games for each weekend there on the scoreboard. I think that that's a good start, but I think you're going to need some clever planning involved because if you're coming down to the States, you need to make it a road trip where you start with a Thursday game. Isn't there always like a college team from Ohio playing on Thursday?

Yeah. That's like we're half the Mac. Yeah, the Mac. So you start there. Maybe there's a game on Friday within a five-hour drive that you can go to, and then you go to a big game on Saturday, and then you catch an NFL game on Sunday, and then you're broke. You forget about Monday Night Football.

Well, I don't know where that game is, but if you can squeeze that in, that's fine. If you were going to suggest one game, though, otherwise you will be broke. If you were going to suggest one game for somebody who's never been to a college football game, I think I'd go Michigan-Ohio State. What about you? Texas-Oklahoma. Auburn-Georgia. Auburn-Georgia or Auburn-Alabama? Auburn- Georgia. Auburn, Georgia or Auburn, Alabama?

Auburn, Alabama. I would do Auburn, Alabama. The Iron, but the good old – I've been to the Iron Bowl. I don't know if that one's friendly enough. It could be a standard observer. Yeah, I've been to some really great college football games. How about Army-Navy? No.

I mean, like that's – No? No I mean like that No No Because I don't think that's going to have the same electricity I don't know I don't think it's going to have the same electricity As Michigan-Ohio State

It probably has more It's I'm not sure If you have to be in the military To really fully appreciate That's a game we have I know I think it probably has more

I'm laughing at Adam Not at the game I thought you were laughing at me No I'm laughing at Adam I'm sorry I'm not putting down the Army-Navy game. The Army-Navy game is very cool. It has its own freaking weekend.

That's great. But I'm telling you, you pull most college football fans, which would rather go to Michigan, Ohio State, or Army-Navy, what do you think they're going to say? Of the other one. Yeah, okay. Thank you. Please don't get me deported.

So, by the way, Trey, Paige, Gordon, Fishman, and Cheech are Fish. Fish, the band. No, thank Fish the band Oh I should have known that Yeah not me Not for me And that's it for today's show I feel terribly unpatriotic now So I'm gonna go buy an American flag And get ready for 4th of July

See you later everybody Na na na na na na