Fantasy Football Today - 06/17: Position Scarcity vs. Production; Heath's Sleepers (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 17, 2019

You need a TE, but there is a WR on the board who will almost certainly put up better overall numbers than the TE. Who do you take? How do you decide? We open the show discussing this scenario ... The debut of the Floor-O-Meter (12:00)! We go through the Top 24 picks and discuss the Fantasy floor of each player. Then Dave recaps his conversation with Todd Gurley's trainer (20:00) and we've got news and notes (25:10) as Adam declares who the new Villain of the NFL will be ... Heath's sleepers! Two QBs (30:00), two RBs (40:00) and a couple of pass-catchers at the end of the show. Does Dak Prescott have big upside? Can Peyton Barber succeed in a new system? Should Keelan Cole be drafted? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We got an early look at some sleepers for your 2019 fantasy football season,

plus a draft day dilemma and your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. What's up? Welcome to the show. It is Monday, June 17th. I am Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Dave Richard. Jamie Isenberg is out this week. Hey, happy Father's Day, guys. How was your weekend? Thank you. I had a great time with my kids. They're getting older now and usually they don't want anything to do with dad. They're getting to the teenage years, but they did on Sunday. We hung out. We invented a new card game.

We played Monopoly. There was a lot of yelling. And then I was treated to a fantastic gourmet dinner made by my wife. And, yeah, just a very satisfying day for dear old dad at the Richard House. Great. I already know. I talked to Heath earlier today. I know he had a good Father's Day.

It was fantastic. I mean, I got to do a fantasy baseball show with you. That's right. So what better gift could I ask for on Father's Day? I had to do a little work, too, on Father's Day. Adam, how was yours? It was great. I got slippers.

So now I'm like a real dad. I yours? It was great. I got slippers. So now I'm like a real dad. I made pancakes in the morning. I got slippers. I made a bunch of dad jokes on the baseball show. And the producer even called me out for making all the dad jokes. And I never felt more like a father.

It was a really great day. So, yeah. Thanks for listening to my spiel. So, all right. We're doing a draft last week. I was not very happy about it. It just didn't really feel good to me. It was one of those, like,

I guess it's okay. I didn't love any pick, really. But, I came up with this dilemma. Let me just check. I had the third pick, and I won't give away too much. This is for our magazine, so I won't give away too much. But, when we got to round five, at that point,

I needed a wide receiver and I needed a tight end. But a lot of people need a tight end by the time we get to round five. So I had this dilemma. Do I go with the better overall player or the position scarcity? At this point, I had two running backs and two receivers, and I was trying to decide between Evan Ingram and Brandon Cooks. This was non-PPR, by the way. Evan Ingram and Brandon Cooks. And O.J. Howard was still on the board. Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, still on the board. But I knew these guys were not going to make it back to me by the end of round six. I had a long way to go before I made my next pick. I decided to go with Evan Ingram.

And I don't know if I made the right call. So, Dave, I know you've had a similar sort of, even earlier in the drafts, sort of toss-up between a tight end and a wide receiver. Sure. And we know how scarce tight end is and how important it is to have a great tight end. And what have you been doing in these similar situations? Well, let me first say that i think you made the right call because of the position scarcity you basically got the last tight end that we can look at and say okay he's got a chance

to finish as a top three or four fantasy tight end now see i don't agree with that because you're crazy about oj howard no i just think as he is the more likely guy to be a top three or four tight end he is my number four tight end but oj howard hunter henry have that same ability i think just not quite as likely to hit it i don't think they have as much of an opportunity in front of them as evan ingram has i don't think there's any arguing that Evan Ingram could finish as the target leader for the Giants. Maybe not ahead of Saquon. Maybe ahead of Saquon, but he'll be close. I don't think O.J. Howard or Hunter Henry will finish the season

as the target leaders for their respective teams. No, that's true. They do have better quarterbacks, better offenses, and Howard at least has been far more efficient with his targets than Ingram has. Right, but the whole argument that I have for O.J. Howard all along is he just needs those stinking targets. Why can't they just give him five or six targets a game? That would be better than what he's had.

Yeah, stick into the – because here's the point. I mean, all those guys were gone. So you can take whichever – Right, you know they're not going to make it back. That's why getting Evan Ingram when you did had to be done, assuming you didn't want to stream tight ends all season long. When did Henry didn't make it back to you? No, not even close.

He didn't even make it out of the round. Yeah, that's somebody doing your favor. He usually does. Eric Ebron didn't make it back. So I took Evan Ingram 51st overall. That was the third pick of round five. Okay. Hold on, hold on one second.

And then two picks later, O.J. Howard. And then same round, Eric Ebron, Hunter Henry, Jared Cook, the last three picks of the round. So I think that made me feel better about the pick. Yeah. But if I had taken Cooks there, obviously I wasn't getting a tight end. I guess I could have gotten like a rookie tight end or, you know, I don't know, Chris Herndon or something. But I could have gotten, like, okay, sorry, Jarvis Landry, DJ Moore, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Dante Pettis, all available later.

So I ended up making the right pick, I think, based on what transpired. But just the overall question of tight end versus player that's going to put up better numbers, score more fantasy points, you know, what do you do? I think what changed the equation, because I had actually basically the same type of decision a round earlier, I felt like I was considering taking Evan Ingram, but I knew there were eight people picking between me and my next pick or nine people picking, and I thought you would probably take Evan Ingram, but I also thought O.J. Howard would probably come back. Because I'm a Giants fan?

So my thinking was I am going to go ahead and take, and in round four I took Sonny Michel, and then wait and just take Howard or In four I took Sonny Michel. And then wait and just take Howard or Ingram, whichever one comes back. And Howard was the one that came back and I was fine with it. But in the spot you were in, it was the choice between, and they aren't that far apart, I don't feel like.

When did Cooks get drafted? Right, the next pick. In four seconds to Jamie. That's awesome. Yeah, yeah. That always makes you feel good about it. And he, and he, so he took Ertz I think earlier. Yeah. He took Ertz in round two. And he said to me after I took Ingram, he's like, I'm so glad you took Ingram because I already have Ertz and I didn't want to feel awful about not being able to take Ingram in round five. So I guess we really like Evan Ingram around pick 50. But, you know,

Brandon Cooks, to me, might be a little underrated. This guy, this is where he's finished in non-PPR in four seasons. 11th, 8th, 8th, and 14th. In PPR, 12th, 10th, 15th, and 13th. So he's a guaranteed

top 15 receiver. He has been. He doesn't go in the top 15. You know, so I don't know. I guess Heath, let me ask you that so like you took michelle instead of oj howard because you knew you could get ingram or howard and with your next pick but hoped hoped yeah you figured and if not then you could have gotten hunter henry but when i took ingram you took howard were you trying to decide between oj howard or

calvin ridley tyree kill tyler lock, Sammy Watkins, guys that went around that time. No, no, no, no. If one of those two made it back to me, I would have had a harder time deciding if Hunter Henry had been the one left because I don't like not getting one of those tight ends, even in the mid-range. But I'm a little less certain about Henry as well. But if Ingram or Howard were there, the decision had been made for me.

There was nobody else on the board that I was considering. I think one other key to your decision, Adam, is that Brandon Cooks is certainly consistent over the last four years. But as someone who's had him on his fantasy team for many years, he's not consistent week to week. One week will give you 15. Oh, okay. Yeah, Brandon Cooks. Go ahead. One week will give you 15 points. The next week it's going to be six. many years he's not consistent week to week uh one one week okay yeah brandon cooks good right one week he'll give you 15 points the next week it's going to be six and i'm not saying that there's cause for concern i just when you draft somebody like cooks you should know what you're

getting into which is yes he's got upside from week to week you're going to start him every week but half the time he's going to end up disappointing you. There are many tight ends or tight ends. Sorry. There are many wide receivers that I think you could characterize the same way. And I think you probably were able to get one of them with your next pick. Who was your next pick? Who was the next receiver that you took?

Dante Pettis. Perfect. I was really happy about that. Yeah. Yeah. Like, and you got it. How far apart are they going to be? I think Cooks is safer than Pettis.

I would draft Cooks ahead of Pettis. But for a round later and an appetite end that you want to get Pettis in late round six, I think you made the right choice. And I think that proves it because you wouldn't have had a good tight end in round six. You would have had Brandon Cooks. Is he significantly better than Dante Pettis? Time will tell. Is he better than Evan Ingram?

He might have slightly better numbers end of the year than Evan Ingram, but Evan Ingram is going to be at that valuable tight end position. He'll give you production that's better than Vance McDonald, Noah Fant, Chris Herndon. Right. So just to clarify, I actually took Pettis in round seven. I took Ingram in round five. I took Miles Sanders in round six, and then I took pettis in round seven i took ingram in round five i took miles sanders in round six and then i took pettis in round seven but what you just said you think cooks will have slightly better numbers than than evan ingram

that's really the question like if that's the case if it's slightly better numbers then it's a no-brainer it's a slam dunk but i think they could be i think they could be significantly better numbers. I've got Cooks projected for like 28 more fantasy points than Ingram. Yeah, and so in that case, I'll take the tight end. All right, well, that's interesting. I mean, putting it in a fantasy point perspective, 28 fantasy points separate the two, and you'd go with the tight end?

Yeah, go ahead. Sorry. I'd like to ask Keith something about it. I'm going to ask you to look up two projections because the problem I've had has come in like round one, go ahead. Sorry. I'd like to ask Keith something about it. I'm going to ask you to look up two projections because the problem I've had has come in round one, round two. Travis Kelsey, Odell Beckham. How far apart are they in your projections? Six points. Wow.

Now that's in non-PPR. In PPR, I wonder what you've had. In PPR, I actually have Kelsey projected for more points. Okay, so for you, it's a no-brainer to take Travis Kelsey ahead of Odell Beckham. And I've been taking Odell ahead of Kelsey, certainly in non-PPR. And it's a tougher choice in PPR, but I think Odell has 1,500-yard, 13-touchdown potential in Cleveland. And I don't know if Kelsey's got quite that much.

Kelsey might get to 1,210. Yeah, Kelsey, I have Kelsey projected for more targets than Beckham right now. Without Tyreek? Yeah, how does Tyreek Hill factor into this projection? Six-game suspension. Okay, Kelsey last year had 103 catches, 1,336 yards, and 10 touchdowns.

If you think he can repeat that, then he probably should go ahead of Beckham. And I'm not saying he can't. But, Dave, you been taking Beckham? I have been, and I think I'm okay with it. But the whole concept is I know that if I pass on Travis Kelsey, I'm not only passing on him, because we're talking about early round two. I'm passing on all those tight ends because there's no way that Kittle and Ertz are going to make it back to me in round three. And I think so.

And then do I get into the Evan Ingram business in round four or, you know, what do I do for a tight end? Thinking that way, it all comes down to how badly you've got to have that stud tight end. If you've got to have that stud, then you take Kelsey over Odell Beckham. Okay. All right, guys. That was a nice little discussion there. I want to make sure we save some time for Heath Sleepers. So let me read our email of the day.

Just had an idea for a segment you could do on the podcast. It comes from Matt, by the way, at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We all know your first and second round picks won't win you your fantasy league, but we know your first and second round picks can lose you your fantasy league. By the way, I disagree with that premise. I do think they can win you your fantasy league. But the segment would be where you guys go player by player and talk about how safe they are, who has the highest floor.

This could be injury chances, decreases in usage, touchdown regression, coaching change, whatever. All right, so we're going to, honestly, we're going to do this quickly. I'm going to look at the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings. I'm not going to look at the draft

we just did because I don't want to Is this the floor-o-meter? Yes, but boy, is that, all right, floor-o-meter, is that like a 10 is really good, like super high floor, very safe? Yes. Okay Floor-o-meter. A 10 is really good, like super high floor, very safe? Yes.

Okay. Floorometer for the top 24 picks in fantasy. Saquon Barkley. Nine. Eight. Ezekiel Elliott. Seven. Ten.

Ten. How is he less safe than Barkley? Just because of the workload he's had over the last three years and all the additions that they made in Dallas. Okay. All right. Christian McCaffrey. Seven.

Seven. I think McCaffrey's like nine in PPR. Sure. Is that cool, Heath? I'll go eight in PPR. Alvin Kamara. I'll say eight. Seven to eight.

Melvin Gordon.. I'll say eight. Seven to eight. Melvin Gordon. Six. Seven. Last year we were talking about him as like the safest running back. He's pretty much hurt his knees every year. I know, I know. But you know you're getting workload.

You know you're getting touchdowns. When he plays, he's super safe. Yeah, I'd go six. All right, Melvin Gordon. David Johnson. Six. Six. DeAndre Hopkins. Ten.

Yes. Devontae Adams. Also ten. Nine. I think Hopkins, I'm going to deduct a point because of Will Fuller and all the buzz about Kiki QT, and they don't really throw the ball all that much. How's their run game going to be this year? It might be okay. I mean, I

think if you have concerns about Adams that you need to have concern, like how could Hopkins be safer than Adams? Hopkins has done it for like four years. Adams has done it once. Hopkins also has had a terrible year. They had a coaching change in Green Bay which could lead to a small change in the distribution of targets.

It's the same quarterback and coach in Houston. We just know everything about the Houston situation. We don't know as much about the Green Bay one. You don't know anything about the safe O-meter. And nine. The floor O-meter. Nine is really, really safe. It's better than every running back so far.

It's true. All right. Le'Veon Bell. Oh, boy. Six. Four. Joe Bixson. Seven. true all right levy on bell oh boy uh six four joe bickson seven six julio jones eight hey what's the risk with joe mixon uh he had some concerns sure i mean basic running back concerns you could you could also throw on there that Cincinnati will probably be trailing. They could win two games.

Oh, right. That stat that I thought was brilliant that Heath absolutely thought was ridiculous. Yeah, he gets more work when they're winning. It's not more work. He averages 7.3 more carries per game and eight more fantasy points per game in wins than losses. He did last year. That is significant. Very significant. That is not just your typical more work teams do run more no this is factual james connor zero to ten on the floor oh meter it's seven six odell everybody's so worried

about him splitting carries he said it himself he just said's being nice. Okay. He's a nice guy. I would be floored if he's getting 13 carries in one catch per game. Floored. Florometered. Odell Beckham. Seven. Five. Oh, that's five.

Man. He's injured almost every year. And the bigger concern I have with him is the possible drop in targets in Cleveland because the offense they ran last year was not one that throws the ball 10 times per game to one player. They also didn't have a guy worthy of getting the ball 10 times. Well, Jarvis Landry has gotten the ball 10 times per game,

plenty of times in his career. And he's been great. He's gotten you like 75 yards when that times. Well, Jarvis Landry's gotten the ball 10 times per game plenty of times in his career. And he's been great. He's gotten you like 75 yards when that happens. Odell has been consistent when he's played, and that was in New York with Eli Manning as his quarterback. He's already said his new quarterback is better. He's going to be automatic every game he plays. Hopefully he stays healthy.

No, that's the thing. That's why I gave him a 7. Travis Kelsey. It's hard not to give him a 9. I'll give him a 9. It would be a 10 if he wasn't currently injured. Michael Thomas. 10.

Yeah, 9. Todd Gurley. 2. 4. Nick Chubb. Two. Four. Nick Chubb. Six. See, the same as Le'Veon Bell for me in terms of floor.

I'm going to say seven. I'm going to be a little more optimistic. I think the Browns offense is going to be awesome. Juju. Seven. Eight. Dalvin Cook. Six. Eight. Dalvin Cook. Six.

Five. Mike Evans. Six. Seven. Antonio Brown. Six. Five. George Kittle.

Seven. Six. T.Y. Hilton. Seven. Five. Five. Keated Allard. Seven. Six. T.Y. Hilton. Seven. Four. Five. Five. Keenan Allen.

Seven. You're loving this. Five. I love it because you guys have not agreed in like ten picks. It's hilarious. Seven. Five. Six.

Two. Not two. What the hell are people going to get out of it? You know what? I thought when we had... I hope they're averaging them. Exactly. When we had Ben Gretchen,

and he talked about Juju Smith-Schuster and how much he loves him, I'm kind of feeling that. Because I had sort of overlooked what Juju did. One game without Antonio Brown last year, they played the Bengals, the worst defensive football, arguably, and they really struggled.

But before that, two seasons ago, without Antonio Brown, plus the game when Brown got injured, Juju was just a freaking beast. I'm starting to feel it. I think he's maybe the third most likely receiver to be the number one receiver this year. I think you've got to root against all the other receivers in Pittsburgh gaining more target share in that offense. To him, he's volume-driven. He's one of the most efficient wide receivers in the NFL. To him, he's volume-driven. He's one of the

efficient wide receivers in the NFL. He was. He was great. I love the fact that he can make plays after the catch and he can shed defenders. I love it. But he's not running a lot of routes that are 15-plus yards downfield. Alright, that's the Florometer. The wonderful debut of the Florometer.

We've got a bunch of news and notes for you. Some minicamp developments, and heat sleepers, and your emails, and my voice doing that. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League.

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Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Back here on Fantasy Football Today, Dave Richard wants to talk to you about Todd Gurley. Dave? Well, I got a chance to talk with his trainer, Travell Gaines. Owns a place called Athletic Gaines Performance Center in Los Angeles. And he's been Todd's trainer for the last three years. And we had a solid 30 minute talk about Todd Gurley and what the expectations are. And, you know, when you, when you're talking to a trainer of a player, he's usually going to be an advocate for that player. And this was certainly no different. Um, but we talked about

the plans for Todd in the next month and in training camp. And Travell says that Todd's going to participate in training camp. He says don't expect him to play in the preseason. He didn't play in the preseason last year. He's actually missed six straight preseason games. That's going to look like 10 by the time we get to September. There are joint practices that the Rams, I believe, are going to have with both the other California teams. And I'm not so sure he's going to participate in those either. So the only time when Todd's going to get ready for 2019 is going to be just in training camp practices.

The trainer said that there is, quote, an arthritic component in the knee. So basically kind of confirms the athletic report from back in March that there is some sort of arthritis. We talked about the weight loss. You guys have heard the reports about Todd Gurley shedding a little bit of weight. The trainer says that that's being done to shed body fat, that they're trying to just get him from 10% body fat to 7% body fat, maybe even add a little bit of lean muscle to bulk him up a little bit while shedding that fat. That one I was a little bit of lean muscle to bulk him up a little bit while shedding that fat. That one I was a little confused about. I could always double check with him on that, but they're trying to get him to 218 pounds.

I also asked about a possible workload reduction. I just told him straight up. I said, that's the thing that people who play fantasy football are most worried about with Todd is that he's just not going to get over 300 touches. And he said, it's never been told to me that there's a plan to decrease his workload come week one. And he justified the Rams decision to draft Daryl Henderson as getting another great running back who can help in the passing game and certainly as a home run type of a player. But never did he say anything about Todd being sat down for 30 percent of the plays, 40 percent of the plays just for Daryl Henderson. He did use words like preserve and manage when it came to keeping Todd in shape.

And you really get the idea from talking to Travell that the plan in place is to keep Todd Gurley healthy and ready to go for as long as he possibly can to manage the arthritis in his knee. And I'm the one saying

there's arthritis, not the trainer, not the Rams, not anybody else. And not that I know for a fact, it's just putting puzzle pieces together. But just turning it all to fantasy, I appreciate Travell being optimistic about Todd's future. It's tough to draft him knowing that he's got a knee condition that must be managed,

not just this year, but for the rest of his career. And I intend to talk to Brandon Bowers. Are you familiar with Dr. Brandon Bowers, Adam? Iers adam i am not yeah yeah i've talked to him a couple times brandon has been on our podcast he's been i think he's been on our podcast he has not you don't think so no he's a he's definitely been on cbs sports hq he's been on okay and he's sports lines consultant oh yes i know but i don't think he's been on the podcast he might not have been on this maybe he was on the pick six podcast maybe that's why we're getting our lines crossed on him but i'm going to talk to him about it to see what he knows about managing arthritis and what it could mean and is there a chance that he can consistently get 18 touches a week can he consistently find

the end zone every week? There was something I noticed. I was looking at his snaps in the playoffs. The Rams had 29 red zone snaps in their three playoff games. Todd Gurley was in on seven of them. Wow. Yeah, C.J. Anderson had the rest. So I wonder if there's a correlation

there between him not being at 100% and playing in an area where not as much room and defense is keying in. All right. Well, you're the lowest on Todd Gurley. I mean, you have him 18th in your non-PPR rankings. Heath has him 13th.

Jimmy has him 13th. You have Gurley behind guys like Mack and Josh Jacobs, Leonard Fournette. So all right. We'll see what happens. I don't want to talk about Gurley every show, but I mean, that was good intel. Right. right we'll see what happens i don't want to talk about girly every show but i mean that was good intel right i think you get to a point in the third round where it's just yes there's significant risk but you're also looking at i already like in our pick by pick when i it's for the magazine so i won't give too much away but i had started off with zeke and keen now and i get to that point

in the third round and think if i've got zeke and Todd Gurley, the league might be over. Right. And so that's probably about where I'm going to take him when I start feeling like that. But you could make that happen in round two. Theoretically. You could. You don't have to wait until round three to make that happen. No, but you've got him, what, round four?

No, round three. Okay. Alright, news and notes. Mike Silver of NFL Network reported that several veteran Cleveland Browns players approached Baker Mayfield about his comments about Duke Johnson, and he also reported that Todd Monk and the offensive coordinator of the transition has not gone as smoothly as planned. Trouble in paradise. Oh, boy.

Don't talk about another man's money. Yeah, I didn't like that from Baker Mayfield. It was really unusually harsh to do that to a teammate. I think unusually harsh is probably a good way. He could be the new bin. Oh, he's going to be. I tweeted it as soon as I saw this story. Baker Mayfield is going to be the number one villain in football.

People are going to love him, and people are going to hate him. It's going to be kind of like Cam Newton. That's only if he wins. He's got to win first before that happens. Well, people will hate him if he doesn't win, but people will love him. And I don't think Cam's doing what he did. No, different result. But Cam was very polarizing.

It's not so much a story anymore, but all the celebrating. People hated that, but some people love that. I'm not taking one side or the other, but I just know that Baker's going to be very polarizing. We knew that going in, though. The Chiefs signed Harrison Bucker to a four-year extension. The Patriots acquired

tight end Michael Roberts. Then he failed the physical. Now he got cut by the Lions, so the Patriots are stuck with their lousy group of tight ends including Ben Watson, who is four-game suspension. They've got Matt Lacoste. They're fine. Anthony Miller expected to be ready for training camp after

off-season shoulder surgery. Chris Herndon is likely facing a two-game suspension due to a DWI. What does that mean for Herndon? Don't draft him. Oh, I don't know about that. I'm not drafting a borderline number one tight end that's not playing the first two weeks of the season.

What if we can start putting together a list of tight ends that we are comfortable with for the first two games of the season to pair with Chris Herndon as double-digit round picks? In one of our standard leagues? I'm not. No.

But in a deeper league, sure. Sean McVay said the Rams are going to extend Jared Goff. Marquise Lee is not expected to be ready for the start of training camp. We knew that. We'll talk more about that in a bit with the Sleepers. John Harbaugh is hopeful that rookie Marquise Brown, who we'll also talk about later, will be ready for training camp after this Frank surgery. The Saints signed Rashard Matthews.

Does it matter? I don't think so. Not yet, no. Travis Kelsey expects to be ready for training camp. He had offices in ankle surgery. Baltimore defensive tackle Michael Pierce was removed from a minicamp practice for being out of shape. I hope that doesn't happen on this podcast.

It's significant because Michael Pierce is very good, and he's a key to their run defense. But he's way overweight right now. Plenty of time to get back into shape. And Sonny Michel had arthroscopic knee surgery, according to The Athletic. So what's your reaction to that, Michel? Arthroscopic knee surgery.

If you draft him, you've got to get Damian Harris. You have to make that commitment to drafting two Patriots running backs before the end of round eight. And Harris is going to continue to pick up steam, especially if Sony is sidelined going into training camp again. I did draft him in the fourth round of our non-PPR draft. I don't think – I wouldn't take him that early in PPR for sure. I didn't get Harris. I don't remember him that early in PPR for sure. I didn't get Harris.

I don't remember when he was taken, but I think you do have to worry about having an extra running back that you really feel decent about starting. There also could be a situation where we don't feel good about either of these guys in fantasy because they could take away from each other. You don't want to talk about restrictions on carries. The Patriots can do that with Sonny Michel easily.

And is Sonny going to get a series of early downs and Harris gets the next series and James White picks up all the passing downs? It could be a real honey nut cluster. Damian Harris went in the 8th round, middle of the 8th round,

in a 12-team league. We're going to skip a segment, the minicamp developments, sort of. That's the name of the segment. Stuff like which running backs are going to be more involved in the passing game, what Nick Foles said about his running backs, who the new Jets GM really likes right now called a pleasant surprise, who Russell Wilson is raving about. Maybe next time I distribute the notes,

I'll actually write Russell Wilson instead of Russell Westbrook. And who's Green Bay's number two wide receiver might actually be right now. We will save that for our second show of the week. Right now, let's talk about Heath Sleepers. Make sure we get plenty of time on Heath Sleepers. So he's got 12 of them up? 12, yes. Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts, they're available on the website sleepers. So he's got 12 of them up? 12, yes. Sleepers, breakouts, and busts, they're available on the website.

We're going to talk about six of them. Two quarterbacks. Lamar, well, let me just say Lamar Daxon, since it's Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. They are sleepers for you. Why is that, sir? There's two different answers here. For Dak, it's basically that he's being drafted

behind where he's finished almost every year and definitely where he's finished whenever he's had a number one wide receiver his pace last year once they acquired Amari Cooper was basically the best he's ever had in his career I do believe he's going to be a low-end number one quarterback. And if you're going with the, I'm just going to wait on quarterback, well, you can wait almost until the last round for Dak because he's the 15th quarterback off the board. He's a backup, according to ADP. He's going to be worth starting more weeks than not.

Lamar Jackson. Can I pause and talk about Dak first? I know I asked you about them at the same time, so I apologize. So I understand sometimes a player could get drafted later than where he finishes every year. Brandon Cooks is an example. Phillip Rivers and Matthew Stafford, especially last year with Stafford, have been examples. Stafford was top 10 pretty much every year, but nobody ever drafted them that way. Rivers was top 12 every year.

Maybe around then. If you feel like they don't really have any upside, they play 16 games, they put up their numbers, whatever. What do you think the upside is? You sort of alluded to it, but I just want to press it a bit. With Dak Prescott, I mean, because I could see a scenario where, for me, it's Garoppolo. For you, it might be Roethlisberger where you say, okay, Dak's probably going to finish higher, but if everything

goes right, these guys are going to blow Dak out of the water. You know, is Dak still that same quarterback or does he actually have big upside? Well, he was the number six quarterback his rookie year. So I think that would be a fair place to set his upside. He was on pace for about 4,500 passing yards with Cooper last year. I don't think he's going to throw 30 touchdowns, but he might come close to 30 combined rushing and passing touchdowns. He had six rushing touchdowns every year, which is weird, but it does kind of illustrate how they run the ball in the red zone. 2016 must have been a pretty bad year for quarterbacks because his numbers have been But it does kind of illustrate how they run the ball in the red zone.

2016 must have been a pretty bad year for quarterbacks. Because his numbers have been pretty much the same every year, and he was the number six quarterback? And he only threw four interceptions. That must have helped. But it's not like he had a bonkers year. Yeah, I don't know if it was a bad year or not. it was a bad or not i'll tell you all right tell me about lamar jackson everybody knows that his upside mostly lies in his feet and they aren't going to run the ball quite as often but i just don't think

it's particularly fair to say well we saw lamar jackson as a rookie he can't throw the ball it's obvious he is not going to be a good quarterback because if you look and compare him to mitchell trubisky as a rookie, he can't throw the ball, it's obvious he is not going to be a good quarterback. Because if you look and compare him to Mitchell Trubisky as a rookie, Carson Wentz, who Adam, you very correctly argued, I don't care what happened his rookie year. Jared Goff, who was one of the worst rookie quarterbacks I can remember, he had a better passer rating than Trubisky, Wentz, and Goff did in their rookie year. He averaged more yards per attempt than Trubisky, Wentz, or Goff did during their rookie year. Yeah.

Dave was reading over my shoulder. I haven't seen the stats yet, so I was looking at it. The only thing, the completion percentage is worse than Trubisky's and Wentz, better than Goff's. Consider it. Yeah, Goff was just a nightmare as a rookie. But there's also the matter

of pass attempts. He didn't throw the ball that much, did he? He did not, no. It's easier to put up those numbers when you're not throwing that much. We know he didn't throw the ball well. He is not going to be a high volume

passer. It's easy to put up rate numbers obviously i mean like if you're a bad passer and you want to have a good passer rating the less often you throw the better your chances are is what i was trying to say it is easier to yes but i i just don't believe that his 170 attempts tells us he can't throw a football he can can't be a good quarterback, and those other three quarterbacks magically had something that he doesn't have that made them still be possibly good after their rookie year. Okay, I don't disagree with your premise. I guess what I would disagree with is this.

It's not magically have something. It's that Lamar Jackson came into the NFL with a reputation of being a bad passer who needed work. The other guys didn't. They were good passing prospects. Lamar Jackson wasn't. We know he really has to make up ground there. And even he said he's not satisfied with where he is right now, right? Right.

He's not good yet as a passer. Yeah. The bar is lower for him as a passer because he's going to pick up so many points with his legs. But he also like his sophomore and junior year averaged 8.7, 8.5 yards per pass attempt. He had an awesome passer rating in college.

I would assume better than Jared Goff. Like video games with Bobby Petrino though. It's like I don't know. Carson Wentz was playing against high school kids. Okay. Well, Dave, what do you think? First of all, I think both of these quarterbacks should make your list if you're interested in getting two quarterbacks on your fantasy team

i did no doubt about it two quarterback leagues they're going to be prominent guys they're going to get drafted in the first goodness probably definitely the first half of the draft probably closer to a top 80 pick both of them are going to go maybe even top 60, depending how aggressive people are about drafting quarterbacks in your league. In one quarterback leagues, you have to make the decision about whether or not you want to carry two quarterbacks. If I've got a stud, if I if I draft Andrew Luck, I'm not drafting another quarterback. I don't really want to deal with having that second guy on the bench, taking up a bench spot, knowing that I'm not going to get what I think is fair trade value for that quarterback, even if he goes off, assuming he doesn't go off Patrick Mahomes style, which I don't think Lamar Jackson is going to do.

Look, the offense of Lamar Jackson is in is predicated on running, but it's not just him running. They like to run, run, and then they're going to take deep shots. Another layer on the Lamar Miller bust cake is that both Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin are not at 100%. They missed all their OTA work. They missed the minicamps. How ready and how in sync will they be with an errant Lamar Jackson by the time the season starts? By the time the season ends, I think they could be good.

I don't know that we know that he's going to be... That's the premise that I just reject, is the idea that he is going to be an errant quarterback this year because he was in his rookie year, when so many quarterbacks have been in their rookie year and then were so much better in their second year. We should expect him to be better. And they are talking him

up like he's doing a better job throwing the football in Ravens camp. This is one of those things that I feel like we need we we can afford to be cautious about because the position is so deep because there are so many interesting quarterback options call him a sleeper absolutely I'm with you 100 is he worth a late round pick if you want two quarterbacks yes the answer is yes to both Dak and Lamar Jackson they're both worth it but I think it's a mistake if you go your whole draft without a quarterback and you begin your season with Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott as your only quarterback I and that

I don't really mind doing that with Dak for sure because he's not going to hurt you Dak does play against the Giants in week one so maybe maybe it's not the worst-case scenario. And the Ravens are at Miami in week one. Maybe that's not the worst. Maybe I need to take this statement back for a second and say that these are guys that you can have. But I don't know how reliable they will be on an every-week basis. I think there are other quarterbacks that we're going to be able to find

later on draft day that will be more reliable than Dak and Lamar. I have Lamar Jackson, his 16 16 game pace based on the seven starts did I know you gave us that about that it's silly it's like 1200 rushing her yeah but but it's fantasy points based on a six point per passing touchdown league I had him on pace to be the number 13 quarterback yep that's about right and but only one fantasy point behind number 11 Tom Brady Brady. So basically like a three-way tie for 11th. Then it comes down to whether you think he will improve from his rookie year to his second year.

There's also one other thing that we shouldn't leave it out at all. Is Lamar Jackson built to survive 16 games? And I think the answer to that is hell no. They're tailoring the offense around him. They're building a brand new offense for him. So that's another thing that is exciting for him.

He's going to be a polarizing player. I very much want to have some shares of Lamar Jackson. All the arguing I did with Heath, I agree with you. I just don't really agree that he's the same as Wentz and Goff and Trubisky because he wasn't a good passer. We knew that coming in. He was a better passer than Goff in college. No, he wasn't. Statistically. Yeah, but he wasn't a

better thrower. I can tell you that. I'm not a scout, but I guarantee you that he was not a better passer. If you go to YouTube and search Jared Goff rookie season, you can watch highlights of all the awful, awful misses Jared Goff had to raise. Going watch highlights of all the awful, awful misses Jared Goff had to raise in the regular year. Going into college.

Terrible throws. I mean, coming out of college. Rating them as passing prospects, we all know. I think this is a system-slash-traditional quarterback issue and not necessarily a talent issue. Pure talent or passing ability is different. He's obviously an extremely talented guy, but he was not

a good passer. By the way, Dak Prescott, so he finished 6th in 2016 with 332 fantasy points in 6 points for passing touchdown leagues. If he had scored the same amount of fantasy points in 2017, he would have finished

6th. If he had scored the same amount of points in 2017, he would have finished sixth. If he had scored the same amount of points in 2018, he would have finished 15th. What a year for quarterbacks last year. Alright, let's go to more sleepers for Heath. Peyton Barber and Kalen Balazs.

A couple running backs. Peyton Barber and Kalen Balazs. Are you sure you have the right Bucs running back? No. No. No, I don't know how anyone could be sure about anything with the Bucs backfield. There have been some positive reports about Ronald Jones. There have been a few positive murmurs about Bruce Anderson. If I was writing a deep sleepers column, I would have put Bruce Anderson in here. I have a hard time calling Ronald Jones a sleeper because

he's going three rounds before Peyton Barber, according to average draft position. I think currently Peyton Barber is the starting running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so I would rather draft the starter in the 13th round than Ronald Jones in the 10th. Is that what their ADPs are? Peyton Barber's ADP is round 13 13 because i don't think i've been in a draft where either of these guys have gone in 153 overall good lord in the national football championship in drafts since is that a best ball am i no i'm a little right that is not behind now they have they have some they have different types of drafts

okay but um ronald jones is around 120 i think why don't i tell you where they went in our most recent draft ronald yes please they went five picks apart and i was actually so mad that jamie took ronald jones one pick ahead of me like i'd never thought I'd be so mad to not get Ronald Jones. So Jones went late in the eighth round. What's 12 times 8? That's 96. So he went 93rd, and Peyton Barber went 97th. Non-PPR.

Yeah, I think that that's probably right around where you will find them. Okay. Yes. Yeah. Until one separates from the other. Kalen Ballard's was the next pick, by the way. It went right after Peyton Barber. 98th overall.

Why is he a sleeper for you? That's your other sleeper, Heath. No one has seemed to want to give Kenyon Drake the workload that I think he deserves. And his head coach, Brian Flores, has said that it's basically a competition for that lead job. I don't think there's much question that Kenyon Drake is going to be the back that works on passing downs. And I think Drake should be an okay value in PPR leagues where he's being drafted regardless. But there is a chance that Kalen Bal Lodge earns that Frank Gore role.

And yes, he went with the second pick of the ninth round in this draft. That has not been typical of normal drafts so far. So where would you take Caleb Lodge? I don't think this is necessary. I'd rather get him in the double-digit rounds. And he's normally there. is necessary. I'd rather get him in the double-digit rounds. And he's normally there. It's hard to compare that draft with

calling him a sleeper because I don't know that he necessarily is at pick 98. I want to go back to Jones real quick. Rather, Barber. Same backfield. Peyton Barber just hasn't really shown us much in his career he's been a jag

yes he has 41 catches in three seasons he has a 3.8 yards per carry I this time last year nobody thought Damian Williams was any good getting in the right system obviously matters do you think that I think that's the biggest argument if one guy I would wager, if there is a running back who gets a feature role in Tampa Bay, whether it be Barber, Jones, or Bruce Anderson, and holds on to it for 14 games this season, they are going to be a top 20 running back. Can I drop another nugget from the trainer?

Yeah, but we only have like four minutes left. This is just going to put some bird duty into this whole conversation. I asked the trainer. Travell Gaines trains a lot of guys for the NFL, a lot of big-name guys. I asked him for an under-the-radar sleeper who he works with, and he named Andre Ellington, who is trying to stage a comeback with Tampa Bay as their passing down's back.

And this is somebody who Bruce Arians has worked with before. How about that? So he could also meddle in Heath's plans for Peyton Barber to be a great sleeper in 2019. Arians says he does like the Tampa Bay backfield, and he says you don't need a David Johnson or a Todd Gurley. All right, we've got two pass catchers, and sorry, Heath, about two minutes.

I don't know that we need more than that for these guys. These are deep sleepers. Keelan Cole, who in his rookie year was remarkably efficient, 17.8 yards per reception. He's got about 52% of his passes with Blake Bortles throwing him the ball. I think he's a very, very good complement to D.D. Westbrook, who's going to handle the underneath work. And you're not going to start him in one of our standard leagues

where you have two wide receivers and one flex. But a three-wide receiver, one flex league, or a two-wide receiver, two flex, and especially in a best ball format, I think there's a lot of upside there with Cole. And then Will Disley had a very good start to the year. I think he was third on the team in targets last year before he got hurt. And I still expect as long as he can get healthy for the start of camp,

he's going to be the best tight end on the Seahawks. I think that's a great call. Three catches, 105 yards and a touchdown in week one. Three catches, 42 yards and a touchdown in week two. And then only three targets, one catch, four yards in week three. And then he got hurt in week four. He had only one target and missed the rest of the season. I mean, you look at the game log, it's five, five, three, and one targets for Will Disley.

But, you know, there's something there and definitely somebody you could take a look at. He opens the season against Cincinnati at home. So if you're streaming tight ends, that isn't necessarily such a bad thing. I think Cincinnati's defense is a little over the hill at this point. By the way, I need to amend my comment on Chris Herndon. If he is suspended for the first two games of the season, he comes back week three at New England, pass. Week four, he's on bye.

Week five at Philadelphia. Week six, Dallas. Week seven, New England again. Week eight at Jacksonville. I'm on Heath's side with Chris Herndon now. By the way, the Bengals allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends last year. So Will Disley is going to be a sleeper in Week 1, that's for sure. I have heard Jacob Hollister's name as someone who stood out in minicamp for the Seahawks.

All right. Well, I guess if the Bengals are so bad against tight ends, that's probably good news for DK Metcalf. When we return on Thursday, we'll get some breakouts, maybe some busts from Heath, and go over some minicamp stuff. And we will certainly have a longer show and read more emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. I do appreciate all the emails, and I will make time for them. Either I will write you back or I will read some on the show or whatnot.

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