Fantasy Football Today - 06/28: Aggressive Auction Strategy; Year 3 Breakout WRs (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 27, 2019

The first 20 minutes of the show is all about auctions. We compare some different 2018 strategies and see how they turned out. We also wonder if you can spend 80% of your budget on three players and still field a good team. We think the answer is yes! Within our auction chat, we debate using rankings vs. projections when drafting ... Two quick news items (19:15) regarding Hayden Hurst and the GB RBs. Then we talk Year 3 WRs (22:40)!  Cooper Kupp or Mike Williams? What kind of upside does Kenny Golladay have? ... Which Year 3 WRs have a chance to break out (29:10)? We like Chris Godwin, but what about Corey Davis and Curtis Samuel? And we've got a few more names for you to know ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, third show this week.

We're going to have four for you next week, so pretty pumped for that. It's June 27th. I am Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg. Hope you enjoyed the call-in show yesterday. Jamie, if there's one thing that we get questioned about a lot that I don't know that I deliver on enough, it's auction talk. People love auction talk. There are a couple problems. One, not that many people play in auction leagues. I mean, percentage-wise, there are a lot of people that don't do auctions. You should, but you don't. And two, every auction is so different that it makes it a little hard to give auction advice. But we're going to try today, Jamie. And you love auctions, right? I mean, they're super fun. Oh, yeah. They're exciting. I think we started, we usually just do one auction draft for the site. But last year we did two, and I think we'll do two again.

I know we'll do two again. So we'll do one pre-training camp and one toward the start of the season. That you're playing out? The second one we'll play out, the first one we won't. You're going to be in this one again. Okay, good, because the thing is I never get to be in the auction league because I'm not there in person. Well, because you didn't move.

Okay, but you could Skype me in. I could be the one person who's not there. Well, after you move, just to show everybody a peek behind the curtain, Okay, but I could still like, you could Skype me in. I could be the one person who's not there. Well, after you move, just to show everybody a peek behind the curtain, after you move, the best thing about doing auctions is doing them in person. And so we did them, we always tried to do them live. As a result of, it kind of coincided with you leaving, we started just to do them online, which most people do now.

And so you can get back in the mix. You usually have some lame excuse why you can't do it like you have to get your nails done or you know your chest wax or something never done any of that i'm considering the chest you never got your nails done i'm not never got my nails done i would highly highly recommend getting a pedicure a pedicure oh my god it the great... If you go to the right person, they massage your feet. Well, that does sound nice. Yeah. I don't think I can do it. I was very anti-pedicure. My wife was always like,

trust me, you'll like it. Go. It's the only way I will have my toenails cut from that one. Oh, geez. That is so strange. Okay. Well, you know, like that,

I am so glad you shared that. Because I'm going to clip that, and you are never going to make fun of me ever again. That is just terrific stuff. No, but like. I have no problem admitting that I get pedigree. I wish I got, I don't get them enough. I know a lot of guys. I know a lot of guys who do get pedigree.

I know a few. I know one more than I thought I did that get pedigreed. Okay, so auctions. Also, third-year breakout wide receivers, guys who have already broken out like Kenny Galladay and Juju Smith-Schuster and guys who might have a chance to really take that next step this year like Chris Godwin and Mike Williams. I did a Twitter poll.

Who do you prefer of the third-year wide receivers, Cooper Cup or Mike Williams? And I was pretty surprised at the results. So those are changing as we speak. But let's start with an email, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. It's from John in Berkeley. Could you guys spend some time on your show discussing auction drafts, tips, tricks, strategies, et cetera?

Along those same lines, I wanted to see if you have ever tried to use the replacement level methodology in setting custom draft values in fantasy football. This is where you compare the projected points of the players at each position to the appropriate replacement player at their respective positions. Could be the next player after all the starters are drafted, or the last player you expect to be drafted. The players with the largest gap between their projections and the replacement level should be prioritized in the draft. I use this methodology in baseball, and I have found that it works very well. My experience in football has been less successful,

but I believe that is largely driven by some faulty projections and unfortunate injuries, and I believe that it may still be a viable strategy I will continue to use. I want to share an auction strategy in a moment, but in terms of these sort of projection-based drafting systems, whether it's what John and Berkeley are talking about or value-based drafting or something, obviously, Jamie, they're only as good as the projections themselves,

which can be dicey. And I don't do any of this stuff because I guess I'm not sort of inclined that way, like mathematic. I like math, but I prefer to just sort of do it the conventional way. But I'm not saying it's wrong or right or whatever. But yeah, I don't know. I don't try this stuff. I'm sure it could work.

What do you think? I also don't try it myself, but it absolutely can work. I mean, you know, like John said, as long as you don't get stuck by bad projections or injuries, you know, it's something that could actually be successful.

Everybody has their own theories on things. That's just the fun about this. Your draft strategies, your approach to it. In this case, it's something that if you've had success doing it once or you have something that you want to attempt to do,

it's an absolute strategy you can follow. I'm not the best person to speak about this. Maybe Heath or Dave are so we can revisit it next week. It's probably something, actually, since you're talking projections next week with Heath and Ben, it's probably something that you should dive into with them. That's a good idea. But I would say this.

You're talking about setting projections and figuring out this guy's value over the replacement player. Well, I mean, I sort of do that in my own head. I understand what I perceive to be the waiver wire depth, the replacement player depth at a certain position. And that's why we value tight ends, not because they're going to score the most points, but because they're going to be so much better. Like the high-end tight ends are going to be so much better than the replacement level tight ends.

So even though I don't do the projections or even really use the projections, I prefer rankings to projections because I think rankings sort of... Yeah, because rankings... Well, you can tell me why, but I prefer rankings to projections because I think rankings sort of – Yeah, because rankings – well, you can tell me why. But I prefer rankings to projections because rankings factor in upside. Projections are just projections. I've always – when we used to do our own projections, and I say we, me and Dave, he still does his own.

I used to always rank the players first and assign numbers to them. Dave did it the opposite way. He would go about the numbers process and then use that to, you know, deal with his ranks. I think that's what he does also. I just, for me, it's always, you know, I probably go by my gut more than the other two guys, I guess. And so for me, it's always, okay, who do I like better when it comes down to drafting?

Now you have to adjust and draft. I'll give you a perfect example. The draft we were discussing from the eight spot, the one that was still ongoing where I started with the three receivers. I have Ido Smith ranked ahead of Jarek McKinnon, but I drafted Tevin Coleman. And so I thought just for my roster, it was better for me to take Jarek McKinnon to lock up the 49ers backfield as opposed to waiting for a potential Ido Smith boost because of a Devontae Freeman injury. So in a vacuum, I would take Ido Smith, but you have to sort of adjust things. It's just another way, again, of sort of building your roster.

But I prefer rankings over projections myself. And then, Jamie, I sort of feel like if you want to win a fantasy league, you know, you talk to your friends, right? Oh, how are you doing in fantasy? Oh, I got the best team. I won the championship, whatever. And then it's like, like oh who'd you have it's usually like you cite two or three like three great

players right so i'm i'm all about fantasy championships are sort of won by having a few just unbelievable players maybe they were drafted early maybe they were maybe they were drafted early. Maybe they were George Kittle. And then you sort of fill in the rest. Look, that's a theory. I don't know that it's true. But it brings me to this point on auctions. Spending big, big money on just a few players and then just spending a little bit of money to fill out the rest of your roster. And I think you can do it. Did somebody in one of your auction leagues last year do this? I'm looking at our results now because I know you asked me about this. So I'm just kind of going through a little bit of the rosters. I can give you a couple of examples of both sides of it. So Dave, for example, and it's funny because I don't remember when we did this auction. This was from last year, though.

So Dave's team, he spent a $100 budget. He spent $29 on DeAndre Hopkins and $29 on Julio Jones. And this is, I believe it was a non-PPR league. So he went big at the two receivers. $100, right, you said? Right. So what is that? $58 of his budget.

$14 on Rob Gronkowski. Those are the only three players he spent more than $10 on. So Gronk for $14, Julio for $29, Hopkins for $29. Now, again, the way that it worked out, he ended up building a pretty good team. Can you do me a favor real quick? Tell me how much Ezekiel Elliott went for. I saw Le'Veon just because

I noticed. My team's right above his. Just to give you an example, Fournette went for $26. Okay, but how much were the most expensive players? Were they in the mid-30s? Hopkins and Julio for $29 each. Kareem Hunt went for $30.

Antonio Brown went for $32. Le'Veon went for $34. Again, money well spent. Zeke went for $35. Beckham $26. Alright, so fair values on Hopkins and Julio. Alright, so he spends $29 each on Hopkins and Julio, $14 on Gronk, and how did

the team turn out? So, again, you know, this is just depending on when we did this draft. It's funny. he spent six dollars on ronald jones and ended up getting the green bay backfield of aaron jones jamal williams for four dollars total so you know that was that's clearly a steal he got chris carson for two dollars um he got sony michelle for four dollars um this this shows you why sometimes it's in your benefit to draft or do auctions early. The flip side of that is the Le'Veon Bell situation. But he built a very good team.

He got Carlos Hyde. I'm sure probably used him as at least a flex in the early part of the season with the Browns. That's one team. Another team, $29 on Saquon, $26 on Dalvin Cook, $10 on Mike Evans, and then the rest of the team was pretty cheap, $6 for Sammy Watkins, $9 for Zach Ertz, $3 for Marvin Jones. You know, so probably the best bargain. How did these teams do?

The best bargain on that team was Robert Woods for $1. I can tell you the regular season. Okay. Yeah, so just based on what you said, I mean, I think it could work, and I'm talking about it going even more aggressive than that on the third guy. Yeah, well, I mean, the team that was the best in the regular season was obviously awesome.

It was me. Nice. I can tell you what my team was, but there were three teams that were 11-5. But I think a lot of people who listen to us, one of the callers I forgot who pointed out yesterday, about how I'm very patient as an auction player. What would you say? A bidder?

Auction bidder, yep. Sure. I like to go usually tight end, kicker, defense with my first bids to try and get some of the middle tier guys at the tight end position and then upper echelon kicker, defense, cheap. But my team, I was four net at $26, but I got Joe Mixon for $11, Mark Ingram for $5, Kerryon Johnson for $3. I don't remember what free agent moves I made, but Michael Thomas.

Just to give you an example, so Dave spent $29 on Hopkins and Julio. I got Michael Thomas for $13. I got T.Y. Hilton for $10. I got A.J. Green for $10. So that was kind of the strength of my team there was those receivers. Yeah, there are different ways to do it. So if you go to fantasy pros uh and you look they have auction values based on uh like a 200 budget for a ppr league with two running backs and three wide receivers you can just sort of look at projected

auction values i think that's what what they're supposed to be anyway i i think they're a little off because like i don't see why barkley would be $8 more than McCaffrey. I feel like they'd be a lot closer. But Barkley was the most expensive at $64. So I just said, all right, what kind of team could I make with a 15-man roster in a three-receiver league, no flex, PPR, if I took Barkley, McCaffrey, and Juju Smith-Schuster for $162 out of $200, spending 80% of my budget, 81% of my budget on three players, on Barkley, McCaffrey, and Juju Smith-Schuster.

And obviously you can substitute different names in the same tier, Michael Thomas for Juju, you know, Kamara, whatever you want. But Barkley, McCaffrey, and Juju. Well, I think, Jamie, the quarterback position being as deep as it is and the guys that you'd be able to get for a dollar make this more feasible. So Trubisky and Rivers, a dollar each. I even went a little higher on tight end. I went $7 for Eric Ebron.

This is all based on these fantasy pros auction values. I filled out running back behind Barkley and McCaffrey, just bench players with Miles Sanders for $9, Kalen Balazs for $2. Wide receivers, I only have Juju at this point for $42. Dante Pettis for $6, Geronimo Allison for $3, DK Metcalf for $1. Is that a great receiving unit?

No, but I have Barkley and McCaffrey. So, you know, a dollar for DST, a dollar for kicker, and then I think I'd have $8 remaining for – $7 or $8 remaining for two roster spots for just bench players. Having two quarterbacks, four running backs, four wide receivers, Eric Ebron at tight end. You know, I think you can do it. We're not even talking about the waiver wire here.

Obviously, you can fill in some of the blanks on the waiver wire. You probably need two of your three Barkley, McCaffrey, Juju, like the way Dave, obviously, Gronk was a bust, but Hopkins and Julio weren't. You probably need at least two, if not all three of your guys to hit. Well, it's the cheaper guys that work successful for that team. I mean, Aaron Jones and Chris Carson. The fact that he got those guys for a combined $4,

that's how you win an auction. There's always going to be players like that, and if you're good on the waiver wire, you can get those guys. I think that we may not realize the depth of the player pool when we do our auctions. If you invite me to an auction this year,

I am going to try it. I am going to go big on at least three players and spend up to 80% of my budget on three players. Oh, the only... There's two things that get very frustrating about that approach. One, during the process, you have to wait a long time because once you spend all

that money, you can't get in on players. Okay. I shouldn't say that. Once you buy your three players, you can't get in on anybody. Okay. I shouldn't say that. Once you buy your three players, you can't get in on anybody else because you're obviously going to be competitive for other players until you spend your money. But the other part of it is, like you say, you ended up saving $8 at the

end. The frustrating part of that is, okay, what if I went $4 on this guy? No, no, no. Sorry. I had two roster spots that I didn't fill out that I had $8 remaining for. But that's going to be the case in a lot of leagues like this. But, no, no. Sorry. I had two roster spots that I didn't fill out that I had $8 remaining for. Right, but that's going to be the case in a lot of leagues like this.

But I would spend it. It's not like I went through the draft. I know you would spend it, but what I'm saying is you're going to end up with, by the time you're getting to your two guys,

there may have been a player or two along the way. And this happens with every auction philosophy. But the unfortunate part of it is that if you spend early, you don't know when you're going to spend the rest of your money. So you're going to be at the end of your auction. And let's just say you really love, I'm trying to think of a guy you

really love. You really love, and you got Pettis on you, you bought Pettis, but let's just say it's Pettis, right? And Pettis went for five and you're like, oh, I just can't spend six because I have to save this money for the end to try and get two guys. You know what I mean? That's the thing that you struggle with when you spend big on players early. The other part of it is clearly the injury factor. If those guys get hurt early in the season, your team is really

sunk because you don't have the depth that you would normally if you kind of balance your budget and spend across the board. If I could spend 80% of my budget in a PPR league, forgetting about Juju Smith-Schuster, if I could spend it on Barkley, McCaffrey, and Kamara, I would do that just to see what happens. It would be so fun.

Now, this particular league didn't have a flex, so one of those guys would be a bench. But let's assume you could start all three of them, and you're starting three running backs who might combine for 250 catches, and they are arguably the three best running backs, and now everybody

else is kind of weaker at running back because you're so amazing. This is an amazing idea, and you're just a brilliant genius for thinking of it, Adam. I would love to try it. So let's just say you get those three guys, and your receivers are Robbie Anderson and

Alan Robinson. Are you happy with it? I'd have to be. Yeah. I mean, you just have to go and know, like, could I make it Dante Pettis instead of Robbie Anderson? Sure. Then yeah, I'd be thrilled with it. Okay. I mean, it clearly could work. It's not a stretch. I may try it too, myself. Right? Yeah, let's try it. No, don't try it in my league because I'd be thrilled with it. Okay. I mean, it clearly could work. It's not a stretch.

I may try it too myself. Right? Yeah, let's try it. No, don't try it in my league because I'm going to do it. I think one thing I think that you could maybe make a case for if you're going to go big at running back with that much money, is it better off to take somebody that has a clear handcuff that you can get cheap?

Yeah, probably. To lock up a backfield. Now, I know you're going for three upper echelon guys. Who of the upper echelon? Cameron and Latavius would be an easy one. Yeah, but that's the thing. I feel like Latavius is a little bit too expensive for this exercise. Maybe.

You need like a $1 handcuff. It could be $2. It could be $3. So for $20, you get the Saints backfield, let's just say. Or for $30. Oh, you're talking a $100 budget? Yeah. Yeah, yes. A clear handcuff would be better. You're absolutely right.

I'm not saying you have to, but McCaffrey doesn't really have one. Saquon doesn't really have one. And when I mean clear-cut handcuffs, somebody that is a direct backup that he comes in and your fantasy team isn't sunk. Does McCaffrey not have one? No. Okay.

They drafted the kid Scarlett, Jordan Scarlett, I think his name is. Okay. Yeah, actually, I wonder. Cameron Artis-Payne. Yeah, Cameron Artis-Payne. I think he actually was surprisingly had a good week 17, right? Maybe. I think so.

Let's go back in time. Are you better off? 16 carries, 56 yards, and a touchdown, baby. No, no, you're right, Jamie. I mean, go ahead. Finish your thought. Because, like, you know, none of the top four guys have a guy that comes in and is them. Definitely not.

But you've seen what happens when Aaron Jones goes down. You've seen what happens when James Connery goes down. Yeah, I'm not worried. If I'm going to do this strategy, I'm throwing caution to the wind, and I'm just like, let's have some fun. Let's party. There's not much in the news and notes section here. Just Hayden Hurst said that he should be ready for training camp.

He's had foot and hamstring issues. He is second year tight end. It was exciting last year. Is Hayden Hurst off the radar? It feels like it. I think the problem right now is A, health. B, rapport with Lamar Jackson. I say that because Mark Andrews seemed to establish that.

You remember the conversation last year when we were talking about Hayden Hurst, and I know Heath was very high on him. It was, are we sure that he's the guy even though he was the first-round pick? Could it be Mark Andrews? And just based on the injury, I think it helped Andrews sort of elevate himself. So I like Andrews significantly better than Hayden Hurst. I'm actually in a tough spot because I have Hurst in one of my dynasty leagues.

I don't want to drop him, but I can't trade him. He just doesn't have any significant value right now. So I just have to sort of ride it out. Same thing. And Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams, well, Matt LaFleur, their head coach, wants the running backs more involved in the passing game. When Aaron Jones Jamal Williams well Matt LaFleur their head coach wants the running backs more involved in the passing game when Aaron Jones was the featured back for that seven game

midseason stretch what we're all so excited for what he did during that stretch he averaged three catches for 25 24 yards which is okay it's okay maybe he can do a little bit more do you think one guy would be used in that role specifically, Jones or Williams? I don't feel like Jones comes off the field and Williams is their third down back. No, I think Jones is probably going to be their every down back.

I mean, it's kind of how they used each guy last year. Obviously, different head coach. But I wouldn't necessarily look at him. We don't know, again, which Williams is going to be. Could it be Dexter Williams? I guess I just said Williams, so I would be right no matter what. Last, I think Wayne Gallman might actually be a clear handcuff to Barkley.

And I think maybe, like if Barkley got hurt, I think Gallman could be flex-worthy. What do you think? They have Elijah Penny, Paul Perkins, and Rod Smith on the roster. Perkins is interesting if he's healthy. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah.

Well, that's enough Giants talk for today. Third-year wide receivers. When we come back, we'll talk about who's already broken out and who could take the next step in 2019. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance

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Alright, so I did a Twitter poll. Who would you rather have of these third-year wide receivers? It's getting closer. It's almost 50-50. It's 52% to 48%. Would you rather have Mike Williams or Cooper Cup? Who would you rather have? Cooper Cup. Not my Twitter followers.

52% say Mike Williams as of now. 48% Cooper Cup. I thought it'd be Cup too. He seems to be going earlier than Williams in all of our drafts. I would expect it to be Cup by the time we get to regular season. It's just a matter of what his health is. Well, we'll come back to those guys. They have a chance to really break out.

I mean, Cup's already been very good. Williams caught, I think, 10 touchdowns last year. But the two that have already broken out are Juju Smith-Schuster and Kenny Galladay. Now, they have sort of different situations, Jamie. I mean, Juju has less competition in his receiving core. I would argue that Galladay has more competition because he did do his best work last year

after the Golden Tate trade and after the Marvin Jones injury. No, beginning of the season, he was good. He was, but I can give you the breakdown. In fact, I'll do it right now, Buster. Okay, the first seven games, both Tate and Jones played. His 16-game pace was 69 catches, 1,090 yards, and seven touchdowns on 101 targets. 101 targets, that's very low. Now, the catches and the yards and touchdowns are actually very

similar to what Galladay did the entire season. Around 70 catches, around 1,100 yards, five to seven touchdowns. That was with Tate and Marvin Jones, and also what he ended up doing full season. He was the number 21 wide receiver in fantasy. Then he played two games with no Tate, but with Marvin Jones. In those two games, he had a combined nine catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. Not great, but 17 targets, and the two opponents were Minnesota and Chicago both on the road. So I would say that's actually very good.

That's a 62-yard average and a touchdown in two games at Minnesota and at Chicago. That's good. Then Galladay's last six games, no Jones, no Golden Tate. 31 catches, 462 yards, only one touchdown. That's the weird thing. But he was on pace for 83 catches, 1,232 yards, three touchdowns on 155 targets. I think, Jamie, if you just want to look at one number,

his pace in seven games with Tate and Jones, 101 targets. His pace in six games without either one, 155 targets. And unfortunately, only played two games with Marvin Jones and without Golden Tate, so that's a small sample size. But that's my point. That's my story, and I'm sticking to it. I mean, look, I don't think you want to overvalue Kenny Galladay. I think he's got the chance to do better than he did a season ago.

His projections on our site are 80 catches, 1195 yards and six touchdowns. I'd say I'd probably project him for eight. Touchdowns. Yes. But 80, 1195 and eight I think is fair on 132 targets. The competition

is going to be different. Marvin know, Marvin Jones hopefully is healthy. He's still dealing with that knee injury. They added Amendola to replace Tate at downgrade. But they also, you know, clearly added a tight end that should be an upgrade in Hawkinson and Jesse James. You know, so their offense is going to be run-centric. I think you also have to factor in that by the end of the season, Matthew Stafford was probably playing with a fracture in his back.

Yeah. And that didn't help. And I think Galladay was playing injured also. So I just think that, you know, if you're getting him, I think round four is probably a good spot for him. You know, I don't want to overvalue Kenny Galladay. I think he's in the conversation with the Rams guys, you know, all three, the two Vikings guys, you know, both of them, Edelman, Ridley, Tyler Boyd, that group of receivers. So do you think Gallaudet has Juju from last year upside?

Juju was probably going in a similar range maybe a little earlier last year than what Gallaudet is going this year. Do you think Galladay could have a special top five year? No. Really? Because of what the offense wants to be. Okay. That's fair.

They were 11th in pass attempts last year. They definitely don't want to do that again. No. I think it's just a matter of like I'm looking at our rankings right now. Dave has him 14. This is non-PPR. I guess I'll look PPR. I feel like that's too high.

I feel like I have him a little too high too. I have him, Dave has him PPR 16. I have him 18. And Heath has him 24. Really? So that's so interesting. I mean, if you take this, Heath is very statistically oriented,

so I'm guessing, and we'll do the projections next week, we'll know, he's just thinking, look, they're not going to run the ball that much. They're not going to throw the ball that much. Not that many targets for him. Heath loves targets, certainly. I look at, he's the number one wide receiver on Detroit. Stafford will play better than he did last year.

He may not throw as much, but he will play better. He's a big-bodied, seemingly very talented guy that could score some touchdowns. I feel like if I were doing rankings, I'd be the high guy on Gallaudet. I'd certainly have him higher than 24th.

I'll just give you... Dave's the high guy on him. Would you rather have Gallauday or Brandon Cooks? Galladay has more upside. Does he? I think he does because I don't think Cooks can finish higher than 10th. I think Galladay could be... I think he could have a special year.

Could. I think I'd take Galladay before Cooks. Okay, so you're the only one in that boat. I have Cooks, Galladay before Cooks. Okay, so you're the only one in that boat. I have them, Cooks, Galladay, back-to-back. Cooper, Kopp, or Kenny Galladay? I'd take Galladay. Okay. I think Heath disagrees.

Godwin or Galladay? Yeah, I'd take Galladay. Okay. And now that might be a PPR, non-PPR thing. That's the range. So 16 through 24. Okay. So then let's go to the next group of breakout,

of third-year receivers who have a chance to break out. And I'll separate them into threes here. The first group of three will be Chris Godwin, Cooper Cupp, and Mike Williams. They'll come off the board beginning in, you know, I would say pick 40 overall, maybe a little bit later. You might see Godwin come off the board beginning in, you know, I would say pick 40 overall, maybe a little bit later. Might see Goblin come off the board and then through, when do you think Williams comes off? Like 55-ish?

Around six, yep. No, later. Later than 55. Later than 55? Okay. So within 15 to 20 picks, maybe Goblin and Williams. Goblin, Cup, Williams. Let's start with them. Then it'll be Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, DeeDee Westbrook.

So how do you rank Chris Godwin, Cooper Kup, and Mike Williams? In that order. And who is the most upside? I think Godwin does. Who has the most downside? I mean, Kup, if he's not right, but probably Williams just because of the targets. What else do you want to say about these guys? I'm out of questions.

Well, I mean, Godwin is walking into a situation. We've talked about this a lot. Tampa Bay has to replace 179 targets from the loss of Deshaun Jackson and Adam Humphries. They didn't add anybody of significance. Rashad Perryman's the best free agent addition. They like this kid, Scott Miller, but I don't expect both those guys to overtake Godwin. Now, obviously, O.J. Howard missed six games last year.

He'll be back. Mike Evans is still going to be a beast. I think the running backs get more involved. So Godwin, I think just looking at the targets, has a chance to really be a special talent. Kup, if he's right, what he was trending toward last year, and you and I differ on this, but I just look at the six healthy games that he played.

I know he was able to play one of the two that he left a significant portion of it, but just the six games that he played beginning to end, that pace would be 93 catches, 1,405 yards, 16 touchdowns. Now he's not going to do that. I don't know that we differ on it. Well, you look at the eight games, or at least the seven games that he played.

The Seattle game where he got hurt. That's what we differ on? A good portion of it. Okay. But in any event, his pace was impressive. But with the other two mouths defeating that offense, plus whatever they get out of Gurley slash Henderson, it's hard to say that he can get to what his ceiling may be in a different offense.

Now Williams is interesting because you're taking away Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates. Now, those two guys weren't at the same level of the Sean Jackson Humphreys just by comparison. 110 targets, 69 catches, 986 yards, and seven touchdowns. But you're throwing Hunter Henry back in the mix. So, you know, A, does Williams have the chance for double-digit touchdowns again? And B, can he get better than what he was last year? I think he could be a 60-catch guy. And if you give him 15.5 yards per catch, which is what he was, 15.4,

then that puts him close to 900 yards receiving. If he could be eight touchdowns, that's not a bad borderline starting receiver. I think what's interesting when you look at Fantasy Football Calculator and their ADP, well, let me change it to PPR. Because right now i'm looking at non-ppr okay let's do ppr because in non-ppr goblin's actually the last one off the board so let's see godwin in ppr is 53rd cup is 49th mike williams is 59th. So, Godwin, 53rd. I just haven't seen that. I've seen him closer to 40.

40. Yeah. That's why I kept saying I'm not drafting Chris Godwin. But if his ADP is actually in the 50s, then I will be drafting Chris Godwin. He's one of those guys that I think industry versus non-industry are totally different.

Sure. Industry drafts are going to, you know, you're tripping over yourself trying to get them. And why? Why? I mean, I know you just said they're replacing a lot of targets. I don't think they're going to pass for as many yards as they did last year. They led the NFL in passing.

No, it's not going to be the same. But Bruce Arian's offense is still usually very aggressive. It's a bad defense, so I think they're going to be chasing points quite a bit. We still don't know what the run game is going to look like because of what the running back situation is. And so if you look at what the strength of this team is, the strength of this team is in three receivers, factoring in O.J. Howard, Evans, Godwin, and Howard. Ronald Jones' pedigree suggests he should be better. Jameis' pedigree suggests he should be better.

But those three guys should make a ton of plays. And just for argument's sake, I'll give you what the sports line projections are for Godwin. It's 121 targets, so, you know, a significant boost from what he had a year ago at 95. 81 catches, that's a boost as well. 1,064 yards and six touchdowns. So everything goes up except for the touchdowns go down.

If he gives you 1,064 and six, it's probably not a fourth-round pick, but that's a fifth-round pick. Mike Williams, last thing on these guys. Mike Williams was the number 20 wide receiver in non-PPR, number 32 in PPR. Okay, so he's a guy, both these guys, Godwin and Williams, might be better in different formats.

Although Godwin did lead the team in red zone targets last year, so keep that in mind. But Williams, he was touchdown dependent, no question. 43 catches, 664, 10 touchdowns, only 66 targets. What I love, though, he had five games, only all year, five games with more than four targets. And he was pretty awesome in four of those five games. Like, more than four targets. It's all he needed.

He averaged in those five games 19.2 PPR points. Like, amazing. Yep, four with over 13. So I do wonder if we just haven't seen the best of Mike Williams. Remember, he was a top 10 draft pick. Right, and so I think that's an interesting part of this is pedigree. You know, Godwin's got a good pedigree. Williams has an amazing pedigree. interesting part of this is pedigree um you know godwin's got a good pedigree williams has an amazing pedigree um cup has a good pedigree and when i say that i mean

you know what their draft capital was you know those three guys were top three round picks in the 2017 draft class uh the the cory davis one though is interesting and then you have john ross you know two guys who were top 10 overall picks and have failed in different regards. Clearly, John Ross has been... I was trying to figure out, just in writing the story, who would you consider a bigger bust? Solomon Thomas or John Ross?

Yeah, it's really hard to quantify. But probably Ross. Probably Ross. I would say Ross also because I still think there's a level that Solomon Thomas can get to. Solomon Thomas, he plays, doesn't he?

He had injuries his rookie season and then he had an off-field situation. I think a family member committed suicide, so he was just kind of in his own head, which is totally understandable. Both guys just haven't produced yet from what their expectations were sure yeah yeah i mean it's it's hard to compare but you look at that draft class and

the guys that were selected around them i mean you know right after john ross was drafted was patrick mahomes and deshaun watson you know like those those two guys went you know after the bengals who clearly could have sat on one of those two quarterbacks and had a great situation probably last year also. See, you should always take quarterbacks in round one. All right, Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, and DeeDee Westbrook. Jamie thinks also have a chance to break out this year. Corey Davis, Curtis Samuel, and DeeDee Westbrook.

So, I mean, Davis, I remember after they spent with a second-round pick on a wide receiver, right? The Titans? A.J. Brown, yep. And signed Adam Humphries. Yeah, I was kind of like, I don't even think Corey Davis should be drafted. And you guys were like, you're an idiot. Idiot.

And so, I don't. I think he should be drafted. I'm not going to be the one to do it. Because if they just added two mouths, and they're getting Delaney Walker back, and Mariota's not that good, and they're going to run the ball a lot, how is not going to be the one to do it. Because if they just added two mouths and they're getting Delaney Walker back and Mariota's not that good and they're going to run the ball a lot, how is he going to break out? Well, to say not being drafted I think is a little bit too far and extreme.

When we first had this conversation, I was in the process of writing my bust for our first magazine edition and I was shocked to see that he was the 26th receiver based on the consensus rankings of fantasy pros. Yikes. And so I put him in the bustth receiver based on the consensus rankings of fantasy pros. Yikes. And so I put him in the bust column just based on that alone.

Then I looked yesterday to see where his ADP is and he's the 42nd receiver off the board in round nine. I'll take that all day. Well, who else is going there? In that range? Yeah. All right. So I got it for you. So Marvin Jones, just wide receiver.

I'll do wide receivers and running backs. DK Metcalf, Marvin Jones, Deontay Foreman, Austin Eckler, Golden Tate, Corey Davis, Jalen Samuels, Mecole Hardman. You can stop. The only guy I would take over him is Marvin Jones. Okay. You could argue Metcalf. I get it. You could argue Hardman if Tyree Kill's missing halfcalf. I get it. You could argue Hargman if Tyree kills missing half the season.

I get it. But if Davis just gives you what he did a year ago, and you could talk to Ben about this because Ben is clearly a Corey Davis guy. I do think the Mariota injury played a significant role in how they threw the ball. I don't think they're going to be as low in terms of their pass attempts. But he gave you 65, 891, and 4. And I think there's a much higher ceiling for him. But why?

I think he's still a talented guy. I mean, he's battled his own injuries. You know his rookie season. I don't think Mariota's that good. Agreed. And I don't think they're going to pass enough. And now they've got three guys that weren't there last year, including Delaney Walker, that he has to contend with.

True. It also may help him take away some coverage. I guess so. I just don't think he's as bad as his production has been. Now, I'm not saying that he's a starting receiver by any stretch. No. But as a guy, you could get as your fourth receiver over anybody on that list but Marvin Jones, I'll take him.

Yeah. I mean, I think I'd rather take like Deontay Foreman, just running back upside. And I would take Golden Tate in PPR over Corey Davis. You wouldn't? No. But I see the upside, sure. Okay. Who do you think just is more

value in the ninth round, Deontay Foreman or Corey Davis? As we sit here today, Corey Davis. Okay. Who do you think just is more value in the ninth round, Deontay Foreman or Corey Davis? As we sit here today, Corey Davis. Okay. Who do you like better, Curtis Samuel or DeeDee Westbrook? We'll finish on this. I like Samuel slightly better, and I probably would take Samuel over Corey Davis too. I just think that what Samuel showed us at the end of last season with his role in this offense is something that he could build off of as the starter opposite DJ Moore. And he may be better than DJ Moore.

Okay, Curtis, Samuel, let me just look up the stats, put it in perspective. At the end of last season. Thank you, Jamie. That's what I meant. You look up the stats. He had at least 11 PPR points in six of his final seven games. And three of those games, he had at least 11 PPR points in six of his final seven games, and three of those games he had at least eight targets. He had 70 to 88

yards in three of his last nine games. He was a little, you know, touchdowns for him, including a rushing touchdown, but not bad for a second-year guy who wasn't really on our radar now entering his third year. Other guys to keep an eye on, Zay Jones, David Moore, Tim Patrick,

and John Ross. Zay Jones, David Moore, Tim Patrick, and John Ross. Zay Jones, David Moore, Tim Patrick, and John Ross. Are any of them draftable? I mean, you can make a case for Zay Jones. I know you like him. It's just where is his role in this offense? Is it the number one or is it the number four? And David Moore is going to be someone I think you keep an eye on

just because we don't know who the other guy is right now. It's clearly Tyler Lockett. You would assume DK Metcalf. But between Jerron Brown, David Moore, and Gary Jennings, one of those guys is going to be on the field a lot. Zay Jones for the Bills. And Moore was third in targets for the Seahawks last year. David Moore for the Seahawks.

Tim Patrick for Denver. Cincinnati's John Ross. We've got some emails to read at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We'll take a quick break here, come back, and hear from our listeners. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks before you break ground make it a point to request a locate it's not just the law

it's a step to keep your team and community safe visit ontarioonecall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right data sourced from from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, this one is from... No name. The first one, I don't have a name. That's bad. Dear Tommy, Arthur, and John. You know, I think that's Peaky Blinders.

What? I think it's Peaky Blinders. I don't know what that is. You have Netflix? Yeah. I watched the first episode of Peaky Blinders and it was really good. And I just didn't what that is. You have Netflix? Yeah. I watched the first episode of Peaky Blinders, and it was really good, and I just didn't really have time.

There's nothing to watch these days. Right? Like, Game of Thrones is over. Billions is over. There's nothing to watch. Maybe I'll watch Peaky Blinders. I've been working on creating a more interesting fantasy point structure,

looking at the idea of giving tight ends a full point PPR, and everyone else half PPR. In doing this, does this skew the league toward double drafting tight ends? What would your approach be? I mean, it goes back to the draft that I did where I had a chance to maybe take Zach Ertz or George Kittle along with Travis Kelsey. We play in the Scott Fish Bowl. Gives bonuses for tight ends.

Dave plays in a league where tight ends get a point and a half per catch. We both do, actually, in our giant office league, which rewards tight ends significantly. Yeah, you could certainly take two tight ends here, sure. I'm looking at the catch. I don't know if I would definitely go two tight ends in my first four picks, but I would probably consider if I took, let's say, in this format, Kelsey's probably a first-round pick, and Ertz and Kittle go early round two,

or at least middle round two. You may consider going in early a little bit on O.J. Howard or Evan Ingram if they're still there round four or five, but I doubt they will be. I'm looking at the catch leaders from last year, including running backs, wide receivers, tight ends. The three tight ends, Zach Ertz had the second most catches

in football behind Michael Thomas. Travis Kelsey was like top 10. Kittle was around 15th. Then you have to go all the way down to 30th where you get to Austin Hooper. And then Austin Hooper. And should I play the Hooper drop that I'm so nervous to play?

Why are you nervous? Because it's dirty and inappropriate. What do you think? Yeah, do it. Okay, kids, don't listen. Stop playing with yourself, Hooper. It's too low. It's too quiet.

I'll do it again. Kids, don't listen. Stop playing with yourself, Hooper. Okay, so anyway. It's too quiet. I'll do it again. Kids, don't listen. Stop playing with yourself, Hooper. Okay, so anyway, Jared Cook. Can't believe you played that. I know. It was actually pretty bad. Kyle Rudolph had 64 catches.

I think there may have only been five tight ends who were in the top 50 in catches, but Kyle Rudolph had 64 catches. You give him two fantasy points compared to half PPR. So let's see. That's 128. Oh, no, no. Why would I give him two? I give him one fantasy point. So that gives him 64 catching points.

So who would that compare to for half PPR? Yeah. All right. So that would be more than any wide receiver. 128. More than any wide receiver. 128. More than any wide receiver? Wait, sorry. Okay, 64 catches, I said, right?

Uh-huh. I don't know why I keep doubling it. That's 64 points. There are no wide receivers who would have had 64 half PPR catching points. No wide receivers had 128 catches. So even a guy like Kyle Rudolph, who had just 64 catches, which is really not that good,

would have had more catch points in this format than any wide receiver in football. So yeah, double it up. All right then, let's go back to the emails. We got Matt from the Nickel City. Dear Brad, Leo, and Margo. Yeah. Brad and Leo.

I think that's me and you. That's Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio. Margo. Robbie. Yeah. Who's Margo Robbie? Should I know who that is? Oh, geez.

Who's Margo Robbie? Give us her pedicure. Margo Robbie is, she was Harley Quinn in Suicide Squad. She was Leonardo DiCaprio's wife in The Wolf of Wall Street. Oh, she's very lovely. Yes. I think they're all in a movie. She was Tonya Harding.

Oh, I think they're in a movie called Once Upon a Time. I think you're right. Is it Tarantino, right? I don't know. I've never heard of it. My league is going to do a super flex for the first time ever. I always waited on quarterback. I got Ben in the 16th round last year,

but now I have no idea how to approach this. 10-team half PPR league, two flex spots. One of them is super flex. Four point per passing touchdowns. When should I take quarterbacks? I think you want to take one relatively early. It's like a two-cubic league. You don't have to necessarily take one in the first round or even the first two rounds, especially a 10-team league. But I think by round three, you want to start to consider one.

If you're not going to be one of the guysgers, Luck, Watson, Baker, then put the guys in whatever order you like of Cam, Ryan, Winston, Wentz, Roethlisberger, those type of guys, and just sort of figure out which one you like best. Does it say if it's six points or four points? Four. Four? Yep.

I mean, one guy I would certainly look at is Kyler Murray and also Lamar Jackson. We did a super flex draft. You can see the results on CBSSports.com slash fantasy slash football. We're doing a cool one on Tuesday. We're doing a startup dynasty mock draft that is also super flex.

Yeah. I actually have one of those going right now. We started it last year. And I had the best team I thought I lost in the finals, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. But my quarterbacks were Roethlisberger and Dalton. It would not be the best team? No?

Not this year? Maybe. But if you didn't win, then you weren't the best team. I lost in the finals. Hold on. I just want to say where we took our quarterbacks. This was a 12-team super flex. I took Matt

Ryan in the middle of the fourth round, and I took Jimmy Garoppolo in the middle of the eighth round. Loved it. And I took Matthew Stafford in the middle of the twelfth round. And Jamie, you took

Jameis Winston in the 5th round and Jared Goff in the 7th and Sam Darnold in the 10th. No, in the 9th. So we did not go super early on quarterbacks, but we did get in that second tier of Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston as our first. I just want to say

that I was right yesterday. Useless Jimbo tweeted us during the show today that the name reference was wrestlers yesterday, not Escape from New York. It was Jake the Snake, Bobby the Brain Heenan, and Hawk from Road Warriors. But what about the 69th Street Bridge?

I don't know. That was in the email. Mike from Albany, Dear Alan, Anthony, Taylor, and Riley. Alan, Anthony, Taylor, and Riley. Oh, the Chicago Bears. That one we should have gotten. I guess.

Though I cannot sit here and tell you who all of them are. Just Google said the Bears. It is Alan Robinson, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, and Riley Ridley. Riley Ridley. Okay. I am entering the second year of a dynasty league. I have an approaching deadline for setting keepers. This includes a roster reduction from 19 to 17 to account for the removal of now non-rookies from the taxi squad.

There are several league owners that have still not set their keepers after multiple reminders. So I want to know, since I don't feel it's fair to honor the keepers that are not set and return all the players to be draftable, what's the most fair way to pick

which players not to keep of an owner that is over the roster limit? I'm confused. So they have to reduce their rosters from 19 to 17? Uh-huh. Some owners haven't done it and they're past the deadline. So they have to reduce their rosters from 19 to 17? Uh-huh. Some owners haven't done it, and they're past the deadline. So what should Mike do? Tell them that they have until 24 hours to do it, or you're doing it for them.

Okay, I'm into that. I mean, if you give them a warning, that's all you can do. You've already given them one warning. Yeah, and then what if they don't do it? Who would you pick? Best players, their worst? I would you pick? Who would you pick? Best players or worst? I would either take two guys off their taxi squad. That's kind of what you're telling them they need to do, right?

Yeah. So take the two guys off their taxi squad. If somebody was stashing, let's just say, Baker Mayfield and Kerryon Johnson, sucks for them. Here's an email from Jacob. Dear Chummy, Dusty, and Davin, those are my buddies who listen to the show. Okay, cool.

This is from Jake, by the way, in Canada. Derek Henry is an enigma of a fantasy. He showed a lot of potential at the end of last season. I'm not sure if I buy it. Looking at his schedule last season, he finished off with a very easy schedule against teams already out of the playoff picture and defenses are tired and beat up.

Also, the Titans could see a lot of stacked boxes. They don't run a lot of plays per game or score a lot of points. Am I being pessimistic or is he going to bust until the end of the season for the third year in a row? So I have him 24th in PPR. I feel comfortable with that. In non-PPR, I have him 18th.

The guy I struggle with, I have him ranked one spot ahead of Marlon Mack. I don't know if I like that. So Ben said some interesting stuff about Derrick Henry and his philosophy about guys. I don't remember the term he used, but remember? Empty carries. Yeah, empty carries. Just carries in the middle of the field.

He's going to get a ton of those. They're not in the red zone. He will get those, but he's going to have a lot of empty carries, and he's not going to have a lot of catches. And this is a player that Ben considers a bust in PPR. There's a lot of downside to a player like that. Now, we have seen Derrick Henry run off some pretty big plays, which is surprising

for a guy his size. I think the argument about him being better at the end of the year is a kind of interesting one just because of his size and the state of defenses. Yeah, I'm very conflicted on him. As of right now, I cannot see myself drafting him in any PPR leagues,

and I'd be hesitant even in non-PPR. I like him better in non-PPR just because, again, he doesn't lose as much. Right, yeah. I think everybody should like him better in non-PPR. Right. I don't get excited to draft him. No, but I think if you go in some combination running back to receivers and he's there for you in round four, that's not a bad consolation.

It's the picking him in round three I think that feels a little bit icky. Oh my gosh, I would never pick him in round three. But in non-PPR, you almost have to. I'm not going to do it, are you? No, as a matter of fact, I moved Mack ahead of him and I just dropped him as we're speaking. Well, another one of my philosophies, and this did not play out last year,

but it does play out more often than not, the better the offense, the better the running back. And I will certainly take Marlon Mack on a top-five offense with the best offensive line in football, arguably, over Derrick Henry. No, I agree. That's why I just made a switch. All right. I'm glad I could help. It's all me. You're amazing.

Let's do a keeper question. Oh, alright, from Jordan. This is actually from Jordan. 12-team PPR. Deshaun Watson in the 13th round or Damian Williams in the 14th round? I'm already keeping Kamara and James Conner. I think you just have to

keep Damian Williams. I mean, you know, I'm the most pessimistic of our group about him, but that value is too good for somebody who could be a top five running back. And what I would actually try and do is see if you could trade him for a receiver because there's somebody that would probably buy him for, you know, I don't think you're getting one of the top five or six guys, but maybe Mike Evans. Okay, can I just ask you one question? How do you feel about cannoli ice cream? I don't think you're getting one of the top five or six guys, but maybe Mike Evans. Okay.

Can I just ask you one question? Like, how do you feel about cannoli ice cream? Would you ever eat that? I like cannoli. So you'd be cool with that. If somebody brought cannoli flavored ice cream to a party, it's about to happen to me tomorrow.

You're bringing it. No, my wife's going to, I'm not really happy about it. I think it's kind of gross. You know what you should do? Got to go buy? No, you should go get a pedicure.

And ask the... Probably a lot of women will be around you getting pedicures at the time. Ask them their opinion. They may have a better understanding of it than I would. Probably closer to what your wife would say. I kind of feel like I have to get a pedicure now. I think you should. I'll do it in wife would say. I kind of feel like I have to get a pedicure now. I think you should. I'll do it in a few weeks. I'll report back.

Okay. You know what? When are you coming down? We'll do it together. No way. Goodbye, everybody. We'll have an outing. You meet Dave and Heath.

We'll go get pedicured. That's hilarious. Okay, that is hilarious. That might have to happen. We're out of here, everybody. Thank you so much. Wait, wait, wait. What?

Gotta go back. Yep, goodbye. I'll talk to you next week with some projections.