Fantasy Football Today - 06/28: Heath's Breakouts (The "Heath is Right" Episode) (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 28, 2018

Adam finds himself agreeing with Heath at an unusually high rate on the "Heath is Right" episode of Fantasy Football Today. First let's debate upside and downside for DeVonta Freeman, LeSean McCoy and... Jordan Howard (1:00) ... We've got Dave's schedule analysis (13:04)! Find out which teams have the easiest schedules and which teams have a tough road ahead. Plus, Jameis Winston talk (17:31) and some research on ACL injuries (23:00) and how players come back the following year. How much does age matter with ACLs? ... Heath's breakouts include Dalvin Cook (26:50), Derrick Henry (32:58) and a number of fairly unproven players in great situations. And we're putting Michael Thomas under a microscope (44:00) ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com and your voicemails at 954-689-3199 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, we've got a Thursday show for you on June 28th.
Starting point is 00:00:22 It should be a fun one. We are talking about some of Heath's breakouts. This time, for realsies, we are going to talk about ACL injuries because, by the way, Dalvin Cook is one of Heath's breakouts. We'll talk about the history of players coming back from ACL tears. And Dave is back from jury duty to give us a schedule analysis for fantasy purposes. Welcome back, juror number eight. Thank you very much, Your Honor.
Starting point is 00:00:46 And what an experience I had. Yeah? Yeah. You want to hear about it? You can't talk about it. Oh, yes, I can. It's over. It's illegal.
Starting point is 00:00:54 It's not illegal. You're breaking the law. Can we hear about it after we do the Twitter poll? Yeah, you can hear about it whenever you want. All right, let's start with a little fantasy football talk, and then we'll get into the legal system a little bit, as I think Dave is eyeing that Supreme Court seat, in my opinion. But the question was, which of these three running backs has the most upside?
Starting point is 00:01:15 Which has the most downside? So the three running backs were Devontae Freeman, LaShawn McCoy, and Jordan Howard. They are back-to-back-to-back in Heath Cummings' rankings. So Devontae Freeman, LaShawn McCoy and Jordan Howard. They are back-to-back-to-back in Heath Cummings' rankings. So Devontae Freeman, Leshawn McCoy, Jordan Howard. Who has the most upside, guys? First give me your answer, then tell me what you think the Twitter respondents said. I would assume the Twitter respondents said Devontae Freeman. I would say that it's difficult to not say Devontae Freeman
Starting point is 00:01:43 since he's already had a season where he was the number one running back in fantasy. Yeah, but has he ever had a season better than LeSean McCoy's best season? Because even that number one, that's a question I honestly don't know. That number one running back season was like the worst season for running backs ever. Last season, Freeman was the worst of the three. Okay, well, you're right, Heath. They did say. Good.
Starting point is 00:02:06 That's all you really need. Can we just get that? Can you record that, please? Devontae Freeman did have the most upside, according to Twitter followers. We had about 1,600 people vote on it, 1,700 vote on that. What's your answer, guys? Who do you think is the most upside, Freeman, McCoy, or Howard? If things were better in Buffalo, McCoy is your winner, and it's not even close.
Starting point is 00:02:29 But because I feel like the situation is really bad for pretty much everybody in Buffalo except kind of sort of Kelvin Benjamin. I can't say that he's got the most upside. I think it's still Freeman. I will say that it is Freeman in standard and McCoy in PPR. And I don't want to discount Jordan Howard, which is starting to happen a little bit. I think people are getting scared of him. Top 15 finishes each of the last two years. Top 10 finishes in standard each of the last two years, I should say.
Starting point is 00:03:00 Top 15 in PPR. And he's going to get the ball. Like Chicago isn't going to get away from giving him carries. He is going to be their lead back. I don't think it's going to be a 50-50 split at all with Tariq Cohen. I do think there will be some games where the Bears decide, you know what, it's probably better if we throw this week. We're running into a tough matchup.
Starting point is 00:03:22 They're playing at Green Bay week one. They might be perfect for that. But later on as the season unfolds, you're going to see some huge games from Jordan Howard. I think Jordan Howard is going to be way underrated. And he's one of the reasons that I feel comfortable taking receivers with my first two picks. Okay. Because I'm okay with Jordan Howard in the third round being my number one running back. Can I ask you something about that?
Starting point is 00:03:45 Are you targeting two receivers with your first two picks no matter where your draft No, not at all. Not at all. If you've got an early draft slot, you're still going to take one of those running backs. In writing up our pick-by-pick series, which will be on the website next week, I believe, maybe even Friday. They are clutch, by the way. They are clutch.
Starting point is 00:04:01 If you're picking sixth, it's detailed advice just for you. I think there were only three of the eight teams I drafted where I started receiver-receiver. Most of them were fairly balanced. There was even one team, Dave, where I took three running backs. I know that team because I played off it with my draft selections to try and hurt you a little bit.
Starting point is 00:04:18 You didn't. I did take one of my teams. I went receiver-receiver with one of my teams, and I really liked how my team wound up. I think it works best after pick seven or eight. So question, question. Yes, absolutely. Yeah, because you want to get – right, yeah, I get that.
Starting point is 00:04:35 You don't want to leave the stud running backs on the board. All right, question is this. Are you okay with Jordan Howard in round three going receiver, receiver Jordan Howard in PPR? Because he's probably going to catch the fewest balls of the three that we just talked about, Freeman, McCoy, and Howard. That would have to be a situation where I had like the 11 or 12 pick, and I really think you can probably get Jordan Howard in the fourth in PPR. Are we assuming that Freeman and McCoy are off the board? Yeah, I would think so. So then beggars can't be choosers, right?
Starting point is 00:05:09 It's round three. I need a running back. I've already taken two wide receivers. But are you okay with it? Yeah, I'm okay with it. All right, so let's go to the next part of this poll. Who has the most downside? And by the way, the results were 48% Freeman has the most upside.
Starting point is 00:05:22 48% Freeman, 29% Howard, 23% LeSean McCoy. Oh, I know how to answer this one. 2,100 people voted on this poll. Who has the most downside, Freeman, McCoy, or Howard? It's got to be McCoy, obviously. See, I would vote Howard. I would vote Howard because McCoy was really not that good last year. He was a little disappointing.
Starting point is 00:05:46 He was frustrating for owners. He was the number seven running back in fantasy. Yeah, he averaged over 12 fantasy points per game standard, or non-PPR. I just think that there's no chance that McCoy gets phased out of the offense. He is the offense. There is a chance that Howard gets phased out in the same way that like Devante Freeman kind of got phased out last year, believe it or not.
Starting point is 00:06:08 Cause about half his games, he had less than 12 carries or 12 or fewer, which is a lot of those games came after the concussion when they were easing him back in. No, I don't think that was a, I don't think that was a phasing out. Uh,
Starting point is 00:06:20 I'll take a look, but I don't think so. Dave, I think it was somewhat evenly distributed. He either had 18 or more or 12 or less. It was the strangest thing. And I think anybody that drafts LeSean McCoy will be pretty happy if him getting phased out results in a Devontae Freeman season from last year.
Starting point is 00:06:35 By the way, I'm sorry, say that again? I think anybody that drafts LeSean McCoy will be just fine if his downside is Devontae Freeman last year. Devontae Freeman was 18th in non-PPR and 14th in PPR. In 14 games. Yeah, and actually, to be quite honest, in 13 games as he barely played against Dallas. He had two carries, then he left. So yeah, you're right.
Starting point is 00:06:59 But Freeman was also frustrating because when Devontae Freeman, in nine games with 12 or fewer carries, and it really wasn't concussion-related, in nine games with 12 or fewer carries, he averaged 40 rushing yards per game. He scored one touchdown, one rushing touchdown, and he scored double-digit fantasy points in non-PPR once, and that was week 17, one time in nine games. In five games with 18 or more carries, he averaged 93 rushing yards per game, scored six of his seven rushing touchdowns. So Devontae Freeman just needs the work, but Tevin Coleman's still there,
Starting point is 00:07:30 and they didn't really give us a pattern last year. It was a guessing game. All right, so McCoy did win the poll. He has the most downside, according to the Twitter followers, 51% Sean McCoy, 37% Jordan Howard, 12% Devante Freeman. And you guys agree? It's McCoy you think has the most downside? I try on these polls for downside to just assume that everybody's playing 16 games. Right.
Starting point is 00:07:59 But it's harder to do that with McCoy. But if we're assuming 16 games, I would say McCoy has the most downside in non-PPR. Howard has the most downside in PPR. I kind of fell for the bait. We're not supposed to factor in injury risk with these? Because if you factor in injury risk, it's LeSean McCoy all the way. But if you're guaranteeing 16 games from Shady, maybe he does have a little more upside than Howard.
Starting point is 00:08:27 Here's my stance on the injury thing. I'm assuming they're healthy week one because this originally came up where it was maybe like Deshaun Watson or Dalvin Cook, somebody who currently has an injury. So I think whenever I put a poll up, if you want to vote in it, you can follow us. I'm at Adam Aizer, A-I-Z-E-R. Dave is at Dave Richard.
Starting point is 00:08:49 Heath is at Heath Cummings Sr. at Heath Cummings SR. Jamie is at Jamie Eisenberg, J-A-M-E-Y. You can follow us. If you want to say that McCoy is injury prone and that's why he has the most downside, I get that. But just assume they're all going to be healthy for week one. I guess that's how I'd approach it going forward. I got a trivia question for you.
Starting point is 00:09:10 Who were the top two running backs in rushing yards per game last year? Yards per game. Rushing yards per game. Who were the top two? Minimum how many games? Not telling you. Minimum two games. Minimum two games. Minimum two games.
Starting point is 00:09:28 Sounds like a super useful... I will say Ezekiel Elliott. Okay. I'll tell you this. They're all going in the first three rounds. They're both going in the first three rounds. Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook. Dave, do you have a guess?
Starting point is 00:09:45 No, not off the top of my head. I mean, Gurley makes a lot of sense. I know he had a lot of monster games. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing. I'll say those two guys. You are wrong on both. Heath was right on both. Good job, Heath.
Starting point is 00:09:58 That's three. Three times Adam has said Heath is right already on this podcast. This is the best podcast I've ever been a part of. Yeah, so Heath is right. Heath is right said Heath is right already on this podcast. This is the best podcast I've ever been a part of. Yeah, so Heath is right, Heath is right, Heath is right. Now he will appear in a mirror near you. Yes, I was surprised by that. Ezekiel Elliott won and Dalvin Cook, too. I'm going to go ahead and assume that Ezekiel Elliott also led in carries per game
Starting point is 00:10:20 because he just got a ton of work. And we're going to talk about Dalvin Cook as a breakout, as part of the ACL Recovery Club. I also want you to get our newsletters. They'll come right into your email inbox. They are free. They are awesome. You can get all of the advice that you want and need from Dave,
Starting point is 00:10:39 from Jamie, from Heath. Here's how you sign up. You go to cbssports.com slash FFTDaily. We actually have several newsletters, so I believe it's CBSSports.com slash newsletters. Maybe it's just newsletter. But CBSSports.com slash FFTDaily is how you can subscribe in less than a minute. You should watch CBS Sports HQ on the free CBS Sports app. Everything's free.
Starting point is 00:11:03 Watch CBS Sports HQ. It's news, scores, highlights. It's old school sports coverage. Real sports fans, fantasy fans, you will love it. CBSSportsHQ. And our fantasy product has launched. You can sign up for your leagues now. This is really, guys, the best place to play.
Starting point is 00:11:19 I mean, we're all obviously biased, but we play all over the place. And obviously I prefer CBS, but I really think that you will too. We've made it really good for dynasty leagues. You can trade picks up to three years in advance. You can do your rookie drafts on cbssports.com. One thing I like is schedule flexibility. You can create an in-depth league schedule. You can play multiple games per period. I have a baseball league right now. We play two opponents every week. But one thing that I think the guys are really proud of on the product side, the in-app commissioner tools are much better. If you want to start playing on our website, please go to cbssports.com slash FFT. So I gave you two URLs, cbssports.com slash FFT daily for
Starting point is 00:11:58 the newsletter, cbssports.com slash FFT to just start playing some fantasy football. cbssports.com slash Dave's Jury Duty to learn more about that. Well, I don't know how much there is to learn. I like Jury Duty. I've done it once before. I actually sent a guy to prison as a woman of a jury. It wasn't my decision. There were 11 other people, but we all agreed.
Starting point is 00:12:21 So it was your decision. Yeah, it was. I was part of the decision- Heath is right. It was your decision. This is becoming was. I was part of the decision. Heath is right. It was your decision. This is becoming too good of a podcast for Heath. I had to be there by 745. My name went into the jury pool.
Starting point is 00:12:34 I sat in a room with 300 of my closest friends from Broward County. And four hours later, they dismissed us and said, you can go home. Oh, all right. So it wasn't much of a story then i i think i think it's the best case scenario for jury duty yeah you go and you don't get called in to be part of a jury and uh they excuse you before lunchtime and you don't get to send anyone to prison yeah i feel i feel better about that good and i'm off the hook for a long time so let's talk about schedules dave who's got who's got the favorable fantasy schedules so first of all
Starting point is 00:13:13 figuring out how how this process works i took every defense i studied every defense i graded every defense based on pass rush pass pass coverage, and run defense. So three critical factors for each team. And game of grade and, you know, the tough defenses like the Rams, the Vikings, they're obviously going to appear harder on team schedules than, say, the Colts, who I think have the worst defense in the league on paper right now. Plug that into the schedule and added a couple other quirks, like if a team is playing on the road against another team, that's coming off of a bye.
Starting point is 00:13:53 Teams playing on the road three weeks in a row, stuff like that. And basically it spit out what the overall grade was for a team's schedule. And long story short, I've got the Jaguars with the easiest schedule in the league, followed by the Patriots, the Texans, the Dolphins, and the Titans. Five worst schedules, five top schedules. Hold on, hold on. Let me repeat the good ones. Go ahead.
Starting point is 00:14:16 Jacksonville, New England, Houston, Miami, and Tennessee. Jacksonville, New England, Houston, Miami, Tennessee. So I guess the AFC South and the AFC East there. Some good stuff. Your top five schedules. Right. Now the bottom five schedules belong to Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona. I also have a breakdown on which teams have the easiest schedules versus the run and versus the pass.
Starting point is 00:14:43 Okay, let me read the bottom five again. Five worst schedules. Kansas City has the worst. Pittsburgh, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona. And Dave, this is all on the website, correct? It's all on the website, and I've broken down every team's schedule by division.
Starting point is 00:15:08 All right. Well, that makes me feel better about Leonard Fournette. So now you're saying the Jaguars have the best schedule, the Chiefs and Steelers have the worst two schedules, so clearly we're taking Fournette over Le'Veon Bell. Well, that's the thing. I don't think this is supposed to be the backbone of fantasy analysis. I'd like to think of this as a tiebreaker.
Starting point is 00:15:30 When you're in not round one, but round three on, and you're debating between two players, especially if they're at the same position, you can go to this ranking and you can see, oh, well, Sammy Watkinsin schedule against the pass is dead last it's the toughest and i'll just i'll throw out who would you debate him with if you're in round six give me a name guys somebody that you would compete with sammy walk-in chris hogan six chris chris hogan chris that's a great one. Chris Hogan has the fourth easiest schedule.
Starting point is 00:16:06 So if you can't decide between Hogan's and Watkins, you can look at this, and you know that Hogan's got the better schedule, and you can draft Hogan based on that. Can you now seriously debate Leonard Fournette versus Kareem Hunt? You could based on this. Yeah. You look at the rundown of the Chiefs' schedule this year, and they're playing a first-place schedule.
Starting point is 00:16:27 Their division's got much tougher defenses than what Jacksonville's got. And listen, a lot of it is weighted because I gave Indianapolis poor grades, and I don't think Tennessee's run defense is that great. Houston's defense is going to bounce back. So that's two matchups that Jacksonville is going to bounce back. So that's two matchups that Jacksonville is going to have to deal with that's harder than it was in 2017. All right. Check it out on the website on cbssports.com slash fantasy. I want to move on because today is sort of a mailbag slash voicemail episode. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. That is our email address.
Starting point is 00:17:05 And the voicemail, if you want to leave us a voicemail, 954-689-3199. 954-689-3199. Go ahead and leave us your name and city. You can give us a greeting if you'd like and a question. Preferably no keeper questions. If they are keeper questions, please keep them simple. Some news and notes. Andrew Luck remains pain-free as he increases his workload.
Starting point is 00:17:30 That is good. Jameis Winston is officially suspended for three games. Is Jameis Winston worth drafting, in your opinions? No. I'm really conflicted on this. Because I understand Dave's point of view. We've already had this discussion. My thing is, and I talked
Starting point is 00:17:51 Jameis up a lot before this suspension in terms of his potential in fantasy football only. And I do think that he has top five potential when he returns from the suspension. He was fantastic on a per-game basis last year
Starting point is 00:18:08 in the games that he played and finished. So I guess it really comes more down to your league type. We get jaded a little bit here because in our drafts, it's really rare, maybe two or three people draft two quarterbacks, and they fall and fall and fall, and we get Drew Brees in the ninth round and Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th or 11th round. That's probably not the reality
Starting point is 00:18:34 for a majority of fantasy football leagues out there. And so in a majority of those leagues, I do think it's worth that roster spot to hold on to Jameis Winston for three weeks because it's not hard to find somebody to stream quarterbacks for three weeks. And when he comes back, I fully expect he's going to be a number one quarterback. Here's the problem. Not only do you have to find a replacement for the first three weeks of the season, you also have to find a replacement for week five because the Bucs are on by.
Starting point is 00:19:05 And there's no guarantee that you're going to want to start jamis by the time you get to week four so put yourself in this situation he it's week four the other quarterback you drafted with winston is dominating and you need help at another position sounds like a great problem to have but you're cutting jamis winston like he's gonna be the the least valuable member of your fantasy draft jamis winston you're drafting him in the 12th round, 13th round, or later, depending on how deep your draft is. There is a very good chance you're cutting whoever you drafted in the 12th or 13th round. I hope not.
Starting point is 00:19:36 I hope I hit the lottery and I've got a starter with that pick. But I'm willing to take that chance with that pick on top five upside at quarterback. But I want to take a chance on someone who could impact my team sooner. That's understandable. And that's why I'm going to let you draft Jameis Winston. I appreciate that. And I'm going to wait for you to cut Jameis Winston. And by the time week five comes around, you probably won't have him on your team.
Starting point is 00:20:01 And if I need a quarterback, i'm running to get him because the schedule for tampa bay and i think that's kind of an argument for drafting him yeah but then you gotta be patient get him but then you gotta be patient or you've got to win the fab battle well that's the thing i don't know that everybody's gonna i don't know that's gonna be like that expensive yeah a lot of people are just gonna be set at quarterback and won't spend money heath is wrong uh sorry at least had to say it at least once. Yeah, a lot of people are going to be set a quarterback. But no, Jamie and I talked about this when we did the bonus podcast episode. You're not starting them in weeks one through three, obviously. Week four is at Chicago.
Starting point is 00:20:35 Maybe that'll be a nice start. Week five is a bye. Week six is at Atlanta. And I personally think Atlanta is going to have a very good defense this year. So that doesn't really feel like a start to me. It might be that you're not wanting to start Jameis Winston until week seven against Cleveland. But we'll let the listeners decide if they want to draft Jameis. And the Chiefs are moving Sammy Watkins all over the field. They're going to use him a little bit differently than we've seen Watkins used in the past. Yeah, it'll be pretty interesting to see what happens between uh walk-ins and tyreek hill and travis kelsey and everybody could he be one of those fantasy players who and you know what
Starting point is 00:21:10 everyone's going to say that he can because everybody knows him to be like this he's not consistent he's going to be one of those fantasy players that you draft you start most weeks as a number three receiver or flex and you just hope for the best doesn't even matter who he's playing and then there's there's going to be a week where he gives you 15 fantasy points and then the next week he gives you three. But you start him just on his upside. It's kind of like what you did with Brandon Cooks last year. Once you run out of those consistent, reliable fantasy receivers,
Starting point is 00:21:41 you gravitate toward the ones with high upside almost regardless of their matchup. I do have a funny note. Sammy has posted double digits in fantasy points in consecutive weeks five times in four years. Wow. Wow. That is annoying. Best ball if I've ever heard it before.
Starting point is 00:22:01 Sure, sure. You guys missed the stat I gave out on the previous show on Tuesday. There were like six or seven quarterbacks who had two top 12 pass catchers, so either two top 12 wide receivers or a top 12 receiver and a top 12 tight end, and a running back who caught 50 or more passes, and all of them finished top 13 last year. That includes the Minnesota quarterbacks, their combined points. So it was Russell Wilson.
Starting point is 00:22:37 He didn't have the 50-plus catch, but he was number one with two top 12 pass catchers. Tom Brady, Alex Smith, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and the Minnesota quarterbacks. It's a very good combination for fantasy. So that's good for Mahomes and Eli Manning. And Eli Manning, yeah. That's kind of what we were discussing on our Tuesday show. All right, so one thing that kind of jumped out to me,
Starting point is 00:23:03 the history of older players coming back from ACLs. And it really was about Julian Edelman. But one of Heath's breakouts is Dalvin Cook, and he's coming back from an ACL injury himself. So I looked at the last four years of data, courtesy of the ACL Recovery Club on Twitter. Not a club I want to be in at any point, but kind of an interesting thing. So who came back from ACL injuries? How did they do? It's not that big of a sample size, but really, it seems like the older guys struggled a little bit. Keenan Allen came back from an ACL injury last year. He got hurt in week one, and he was awesome.
Starting point is 00:23:45 He was the number three wide receiver in fantasy. He did, however, kind of take a little while to get going. His first nine games, he had 596 yards and one touchdown. His last seven games, he had 797 yards and five touchdowns. The year before that, we had two wide receivers coming back from August ACL injuries. Didn't even make it to the regular season. Kelvin Benjamin and Jordy Nelson. Kelvin Benjamin, he was okay in 2016.
Starting point is 00:24:13 He had 941 yards and seven touchdowns. Jordy Nelson ended up as the number two wide receiver in non-PPR and the number three wide receiver in PPR. You can, however, look at what Jordy Nelson did. And he tore his ACL in what would have been his age 30 season. And Edelman tore his ACL in what would have been his age 31 season. Jordy Nelson, his yards per catch was down a lot, significantly, in fact. And his first six games, he was bad. He averaged 54 yards per game in his first six games. People were talking about
Starting point is 00:24:44 dropping Jordy Nelson after that Thursday night game against the Bears. And then he turned it on was bad. He averaged 54 yards per game in his first six games. People were talking about dropping Jordy Nelson after that Thursday night game against the Bears. And then he turned it on his last 10 games. He averaged 94 yards per game, and he had nine touchdowns in those 10 games. But really, it was like he just kind of got, I don't want to say lucky, but he really benefited from a lot of touchdowns. You guys can take a look at the notes I put together, but really, Vincent Jackson tore his ACL in 2016, played five games in 2017, and has disappeared. Jamal Charles tore his ACL.
Starting point is 00:25:14 Then he tore his meniscus the next year, but after the ACL injury, we never saw a good Jamal Charles again. Steven Ridley, same thing, but he didn't really get a ton of work. It's a little bit scary when older running backs and wide receivers tear their ACLs. Younger guys, not really a huge deal. Quarterbacks, not really a huge deal. Carson Palmer showed that. Joe Flacco actually showed that.
Starting point is 00:25:35 Uh, so I wouldn't worry too much. Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers showed that once upon a time. Yeah, that was a while ago. Yeah. Wentz and, and, uh, and, and, uh, you know you know the john watson thank you they're a little more more more bubble than those guys but uh quarterbacks have come back well from it but it's really giving me a little bit of hesitation with edelman the only thing i'll say is he is back and practicing really early and the other guys weren't but he's not a full participant yet correct uh
Starting point is 00:26:03 yeah i believe that's correct. My other thing I would say about Julian Edelman is what does he thrive on? It's lateral agility. It's quickness in small spaces. I don't worry so much about somebody regaining their top speed after an ACL injury because that's not really a concern. But he has to be able to cut and accelerate in the ways that he has in the past. I was already out on Julian Edelman, so I'm probably biased in the first place, but I think you've given us some very conclusive evidence here. Not quite sure about conclusive.
Starting point is 00:26:42 All right, we got coming up a fun Twitter poll. We're going to put another first-round pick under a microscope. It will be Michael Thomas, who's a borderline first-round pick. And let's talk about Heath's breakouts, starting with Dalvin Cook. And we do have a Dalvin Cook voicemail. I will play it, though, after you give your analysis of Dalvin Cook. Please give your analysis of Dalvin Cook. Please give your analysis of Dalvin Cook. If Dalvin Cook was 100% healthy,
Starting point is 00:27:11 didn't have any concern over the ACL injury, he would be my number one sophomore running back. Maybe number two behind Kareem Hunt, but I'd have him ahead of Leonard Fournette. I'd have him ahead of Christian McCaffrey. I'd have him ahead of Alvin Kamara. Dalvin Cook looked amazing last year in his first three and a half games as a rookie. He's a complete running back.
Starting point is 00:27:36 There's no concern about him having to come off the field for something. The Vikings offense should be extremely efficient with Kirk Cousins-Henderson. We know he likes to target his running backs in the passing game. I think we could be looking at a 1,600-yard season with 10 touchdowns. Wow. Yep. I mean, that's huge. I don't know if I'm expecting that much, but I agree that I think he's got a chance to be very, very special.
Starting point is 00:28:01 I remember the coaching staff, and's most of the same coaching staff still in minnesota just being enamored with cook during training camp every day you'd read something about how they think he's special they were using words that they don't normally use to talk about players when they talked about dalvin cook and mike zimmer like that's what tipped me off is that mike zimmer typically is not very excited about players. And he was like a proud papa when it came to Dalvin Cook. And when he went down, it was defeating for Minnesota, but they still got by. He is in a spot where the Vikings defense is better.
Starting point is 00:28:38 They should be able to be in a lot of situations where they're going to be at least balanced offensively, if not a little more run-centric, which does worry me a little bit about Kirk Cousins' upside, but it creates big potential for Dalvin Cook, who is, like he said, a do-it-all running back. Good schedule in front of him and in front of the Vikings this year. It's just a matter of him staying healthy. Good offensive line. They changed offensive coordinators, but the guy they brought in is John DiFilippo, front of the Vikings this year. It's just a matter of him staying healthy. Good offensive line.
Starting point is 00:29:09 They changed offensive coordinators, but the guy they brought in is John DeFilippo, and I think he's going to be very, very good for them. I'm trying to get this guy in a lot of my drafts, and I end up not getting him. Let me play this voicemail. Here we go. 954-689-3199. No name, unfortunately, on this. So, Dave, give me a name. Paul.
Starting point is 00:29:27 From? Brooklyn. All right. Paul from Brooklyn. What do you have to say? Hey, what's going on, Acer? Little man. Quick question.
Starting point is 00:29:37 It's a serious one. Dalvin Cook at Leonard Fournette. I see Cook is having upside, but obviously the injury scared me. He hasn't proven it before. I think Fournette's safer. Let me know, MPS. That guy that was saying McCaffrey? Hilarious.
Starting point is 00:29:54 You should put that on a loop. Talk to you later. Peace out. Yes, McCaffrey guy was very funny. I have more on that later on in the show. But the question was Cook or Fournette. What do you guys think? I'm still taking Fournette.
Starting point is 00:30:12 And they both have similar situations where they're on teams with great defenses. I would say that Jacksonville's offense will probably be a little more cautious than Minnesota's. Minnesota, I think, will let it rip sometimes. Jacksonville, I don't know if they're going to let it rip at all. I think we get a little too in-depth with that kind of stuff. I think we overthink it a little bit. The good defense, salting the game away, that kind of thing. As long as they're not getting blown out,
Starting point is 00:30:41 they're going to be in perfect opportunities to run the football. In fact, you look at Dalvin Cook last year. He played four games. He got huge workloads in three of them. The one time he didn't was a 15-point loss at the Steelers. That game kind of got away from them. But they're going to be competitive in every game. They should be anyway.
Starting point is 00:30:56 But I think that's part of the formula for a good fantasy running. Yeah, it's a great thing, but I don't know. You start talking about well, they're going to be leading. They're going to be doing this. If any team is... This is why I'm a little afraid of Fournette, they're going to be leading, they're going to be doing this. If any team is... This is why I'm a little afraid of Fournette, Dave. I mean, if any team is going to be in blowouts on the wrong end of it,
Starting point is 00:31:12 I really feel like the Jaguars could take a huge step back. I'm going to be low on the Jaguars. A lot of people are going to be high on them. Their defense is going to be great. I think their offense could be total crap this year. So that scares me a bit. And before this voicemail, I't know i guess i would have instinct instinctually taken fornette but actually no i think i want cook i think i want cook i have
Starting point is 00:31:32 cook ranked higher in both formats and i question just a little bit the safety of leonard fornette he has a growing list of foot slash ankle injuries in his past he's not somebody you should look at as bulletproof yeah he's also not coming off of a torn acl though just saying yeah that's true yes yes you could say he's safer than cook i just wouldn't say he's safe i don't think he is like i'm not worried about cook's ACL injury. Until they give me reason to be worried about it, you know, that's – let me see if I can take a look at the running backs who tore their ACL. Like Danny Woodhead tore his ACL in 2016, and I think he was fine in 2017. He was fine on that one drive, and then he got hurt in week one, but he was older.
Starting point is 00:32:22 Giovanni Bernard tore his ACL. He played 10 games in 2016 at age 26, and he tore his ACL, and he was better in 2017. I mentioned Jamal Charles, but he was older, so he didn't have a very good follow-up. Deion Lewis, in 2015, he tore his ACL. He played seven games, and then in 2016, he wasn't as good. His yards per catch, his yards per carry were down, but they weren't bad. There aren't that many examples that I had. But, yeah, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:32:55 I like it, Heath. I'm all in. Dalvin Cook, Heath is right. Derek Henry is a breakout for Heath. Dave Richard is responsible for some of this breakout pick. I got a little bit scared when Deion Lewis was signed to his contract. I still think Deion Lewis could be a good value in fantasy drafts, but I don't think this is a situation where Deion Lewis works his way into the DeMarco Murray role from last year and Derrick Henry is just stuck in fourth quarter pounder
Starting point is 00:33:24 purgatory. I expect Derrick Henry is going to in fourth quarter pounder purgatory. I expect Derrick Henry is going to be the lead back on this team. He will share a little bit with Deion Lewis, but he's going to get an increase in workload. He's been very productive when he's gotten touches. I expect he's getting touches this year on a regular basis. Can you quantify that? And if you can't, I can. What would you like for me to quantify?
Starting point is 00:33:47 How many touches? Yes. What kind of touch? You want to know the Jamie Eisenberg when he touches the ball? That's kind of what I'm pointing you. That's the direction I'm pointing you. I've got it. Would you like me to?
Starting point is 00:33:56 I've got it, too. I just want to know if he's at it. That's not my go-to. Would you like to know it? Those are always intriguing. He has a 100% success rate of scoring a touchdown whenever he gets at least 14 carries in a game. Oh, that's actually – I didn't have that. That's pretty cool.
Starting point is 00:34:14 Derrick Henry, every time he gets 14 carries or more, he scored a touchdown. That's very cool. In the postseason, we finally got to see him kind of get cut loose. He had 23 carries, 156 yards, and a touchdown at Kansas City. He also had two catches for 35 yards. And then he did not do nearly as well at New England, 12 carries for 28 yards and three catches for 21 yards for Derrick Henry. Does he feel like a guy, though, that is going to be much more valuable in non-PPR compared to PPR?
Starting point is 00:34:45 Yes, because I think in a perfect world, Tennessee is going to use Deion Lewis in that third down roll. Yeah, I'd get to get just 25 or 30 passes this year. That's not to say that Derrick Henry can't do it because we have some evidence that he's a very good pass catcher. The fear, if there's a fear, it's that they mix and match henry and lewis like the falcons mix and match freeman and coleman and you can't quite get a beat on who uh who gets used
Starting point is 00:35:14 when and but that still means 220 plus carries for derrick henry should yes okay heath so then i'm just going to group the next four guys here. They're all pretty unproven, and I guess the question is, the situations are good, but are the players good? And by the way, there are more breakouts if you want to read. You can read Heath's column. I just picked six guys. Marlon Mack, Colts running back.
Starting point is 00:35:43 San Francisco wide receiver, Marquise Goodwin. Cowboys wide receiver, Alan Hearns. And Baltimore tight end, rookie tight end, Hayden Hurst. So Marlon Mack, Marquise Goodwin, Alan Hearns, and Hayden Hurst. I really think the question is, are these guys good? What do you think? Well, I think Marquise Goodwin is a good one, a good receiver. He was phenomenal in those last five games with jimmy garoppolo i don't think he's terrible in week 17 that was a weird situation i'm not going to worry about that too much but he is obviously one of the fastest players in the nfl and what he did in the second half last year or really after pierre garçon went out was he really showed that he was more than just a run by the other guy he was running intermediate routes and he was running them showed that he was more than just a run by the other guy.
Starting point is 00:36:26 He was running intermediate routes, and he was running them with success. He was getting a ton of targets from Jimmy Garoppolo. And there's already been some talk. I have a little bit of concern about just assuming that Pierre Garçon is going to come back at 32 years old and be as good as he was when he was 30. And there's already been some talk. I expected to see some things about man jimmy garoppolo and pierre garcona are really bonding this summer and it's been more quotes
Starting point is 00:36:50 from garcona it's going to take some work it's going to take some time to get that connection he's already got that connection with marcy markey's goodwin i think there's a much better chance than adp presents that goodwin is the number one receiver for the 49ers this year. 43 targets, 29 catches, 384 yards. That's 13.2 yards per catch and a touchdown. 67.4% catch rate for Goodwin from Garoppolo last year. Not bad. Very good.
Starting point is 00:37:20 But he was the only show in town. He was the only show in town. They got McKinnon now. They drafted a wide receiver in the second round. You got Pierre Garçon coming back from a neck injury. If it were an ACL injury, based on my research, I'd be very concerned.
Starting point is 00:37:34 I'm just bringing it up. How many targets per game? That seems like a lot. How much is that a year? I think that's too much. I'm not as optimistic as Heath is, but we're taking Marquise Goodwin in the double-digit rounds, are we not? I'll take him in the ninth.
Starting point is 00:37:50 Yeah. That's almost double-digit. That's almost double-digit. And then Alan Hearns, I understand why you would question if he was good, but in 2015, he got 61% of his passes from Blake Bortles. From Blake Bortles. What did he do the rest of his career, though? And average 16 yards per reception.
Starting point is 00:38:08 Yeah, I don't know, man. You know I love me some Miami Hurricanes, but I just don't know that Alan Hearns is any better than Des. Most importantly, I don't think there's any question that he's the best receiver on the team. There are some people, Dave may be one of them, that thinks Michael Gallup is the guy. Oh, there's definitely a question.
Starting point is 00:38:25 Terrence Williams is not any good at all. I agree that Hearns is better than Terrence Williams, but we have no idea how good Michael Gallup is going to be. You have to at least say there's a question that Gallup could be better. I don't have any question that this year Alan Hearns will be their best receiver. I'm starting to feel the same way. Michael Gallup may be better than him three years from now, or maybe even next year. But I don't think as a rookie Michael Gallup is going to Gallup may be better than him three years from now, or maybe even next year.
Starting point is 00:38:45 But I don't think as a rookie, Michael Gallup's going to come in and be better than Alan Hearns. You mentioned that Hearns had a 61% catch rate from Bortles in 2015. He had a 69.6% catch rate from Blake Bortles in 2017. Didn't play a full season. In fact, he hasn't played a full season since his rookie year in 2014. But when he's on the field, I think he's going to end up being the go-to guy. And I think that the Cowboys are going to line him up all over the place.
Starting point is 00:39:12 And because they don't have any other go-to guy, Witten's gone, Dez is gone, everything's wide open, there's a chance he gets over 120 targets. I think this is a good one he des had 133 last year and jason whitton had uh how many did he have it's 87 targets so that's 220 targets 132 catches 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns again 132 1400 yards and 11 touchdowns on 220 targets gone between des bryant and jason whitton and so that's going to get split up amongst a lot of players yeah i mean hearns is oh maybe hearns will get all of it 220 targets on an unrelated note but kind of related to those targets i wonder if maybe we are underestimating
Starting point is 00:40:00 ezekiel elliott and ppr just a little bit bit. I agree. I'm still pretty aggressive on him in PPR, but I think he can pick up a lot of the slack. I think he's going to get more catches. I think Hearns is now a candidate to get 120 targets. That'll change if Michael Gallup looks great in training camp in the preseason. We hear some glowing remarks about him. Or if somebody else steps up in Dallas, the tight ends are still going to play a pretty
Starting point is 00:40:25 significant role. They've got some guys that might be able to do something. I mean, Deontay Thompson was on the podcast. That's true. On the Pick 6 podcast, right? Yes. He was on the Pick 6 podcast. Yes.
Starting point is 00:40:37 Okay. But he even acknowledged that he's a deep ball, take the top off the defense kind of guy. All right. So Hearns is going 145th overall. He's going after Cameron Meredith. even acknowledge that he's a deep ball, take the top off the defense kind of guy. All right, so Hearns is going 145th overall. He's going after Cameron Meredith. I'd much rather have Alan Hearns than Cameron Meredith. Me too. Okay.
Starting point is 00:40:54 And then he's going ahead of Kenny Galladay and Paul Richardson. Yep. I'm cool with that. I've got him behind Jordy, Marquise Goodwin, Devin Funchess. All right, so I would love to talk about the other guys, but I want to move on just so we can get to the voicemails and the emails. I have not done a good enough job of that. The other two are Marlon Mack and Hayden Hurst,
Starting point is 00:41:20 and I will just say this, that each of the last two years in the Baltimore offense, a tight end has been either first or second in targets and first or second in catches. So Joe Flacco has been thrown into his tight ends. All righty. We got another Twitter poll. So this came up on the Fantasy Baseball podcast today. A relief pitcher for the Diamondbacks named Archie Bradley. He's an excellent, excellent player.
Starting point is 00:41:46 He admitted that before entering a game this year, he was using the bathroom and he pooped his pants. He pooped his pants before. And then he cleaned himself up a little bit, but he went in the game with poop pants. I don't know. So we got into it, obviously, on the baseball podcast, and I put a Twitter poll up during the show. And it says, Archie Bradley admitted to pooping his pants before going in a game this year.
Starting point is 00:42:14 Have you pooped your pants since turning 20 years old? Since turning 20 years old, have you done that? So option A is yes, I pooped them. And option B is no, of course not. And it just keeps getting closer and closer because no was like two-thirds of the vote, which still was shockingly low to me. Like it should be 95% no. 44% of people that have nearly 1,700 votes are saying that they have pooped their pants since turning 20 years old. I appreciate the honesty of your Twitter audience, Adam. and about 55% of your audience are liars.
Starting point is 00:42:49 That's ridiculous. Like I 100% have not. This is disgusting. You're 20 years old. Maybe it's because I've never been drunk. I don't know. Well, it's not necessarily that. What if you just can't find a bathroom and you really you know the i will say a lot of the
Starting point is 00:43:06 avalanches come and a lot of the things that could lead to pooping your pants adam does not participate in i know it's a problem for some distance runners like burrito eating uh golfers have that problem you're just too far from the from the the bathroom uh you can't make it in time and drinking is a contributing factor but i mean, I drink from time to time, and I never have any problems with anything below the waist. I can always find a bath. Dave is one of the 56%. Also, I don't eat spicy food, so that helps, right?
Starting point is 00:43:38 Yeah, that could be a factor. Laziness, like you're in the middle of a fantasy draft, and you don't want to miss your pick You don't play Fortnite right Fortnite could definitely Because there's no pause If you're deep in a game of Fortnite You're in deep doo doo
Starting point is 00:43:53 So now that that's done with You sick sick people Let's put a first round pick You brought it up No the sick people who said yes Like really Is it more likely that someone clicked yes and they've not pooped their pants or someone clicked no and they actually have? Oh, yeah. I'm sure.
Starting point is 00:44:12 It's over 50%. But it's anonymous. I mean it's anonymous. Right, exactly. You might as well admit it if it's anonymous. One of my favorite wrestlers pooped his pants in the ring. Really? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:44:21 Oh, I think I've seen that. Okay. Here's an email to get us into our first round pick that we're putting under the microscope. It's from Scott in Chicago. Dear Deuce, Pierre, Reggie, and Ricky. When I heard Deuce, I thought we were still talking about the pole. How about that?
Starting point is 00:44:37 Those are Saints running backs. Why is Michael Thomas considered a slam dunk top tier wide receiver? I'm not even going to read the rest of this scott come on why shouldn't he be considered a slam dunk top tier wide receiver guys this is the first round pick we're putting under the microscope what is not to like about michael thomas i can't think of anything that's not to like other than dave's got one go ahead dave he got off to a slow start last year and i don't know if he's necessarily one of the top 10 or 12 players in fantasy football. I'm thinking you can probably find at least a dozen other guys that you'd take before Thomas.
Starting point is 00:45:19 I would say, if anything, Michael Thomas' fantasy production last year does not fully signify how good he was because he only scored five touchdowns. The year before, he had 121 targets, caught 92 of them, which is just absurd, and scored nine touchdowns. Last year, with more targets, more receptions, more yards, he only scored five times. If anything, I would expect a little bit of positive regression for Michael Thomas. Do you believe the Saints are still a pass-happy offense?
Starting point is 00:45:53 As much as they were last year, but not as much as they were, say, two or three years ago. No, certainly not. But Michael Thomas hasn't benefited from that. Well, so Thomas had more targets last year than any player has ever had under Drew Brees in New Orleans. He is tied, in fact, with Jimmy Graham, who also had a 149-target year. But the fact that he only caught five touchdown passes was crazy, but the fact that Drew Brees only threw 23 touchdown passes was also crazy,
Starting point is 00:46:20 which is why I think Drew Brees is going to be a really good value this year. I just think he was unlucky, and which is why I think Drew Brees is going to be a really good value this year. I just think he was unlucky, which is why I'm a little afraid of Kamara, because just the touchdown rates for the running backs were so high. Michael Thomas, I don't think he's getting 149 targets again. It just seems unlikely, like I said. It's the most... Go ahead. The whole Michael Thomas had the most targets ever for a Drew Brees wide receiver kind of makes sense when you consider that Michael Thomas is the best receiver Drew Brees has ever had.
Starting point is 00:46:51 Well, he might be, but Marcus Colson was very, very good. Marcus Colson was no Michael Thomas. I mean, you might have to hit the brakes a little bit there, but I would think you're probably right, but Michael Thomas is. I think you might be right. You think about how long Drew Brees has been playing, and then you think about all the receivers he's had. Brandon Cooks was there. I think Thomas is better than him.
Starting point is 00:47:16 I think he's better than Colston, too. I would agree. I would agree. Heath might be right again. He is 100%. I'm going to change the title of this show to Heath is right. I love it. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:28 Maybe I'll just put that in parentheses. The Heath is right. The Price is right. So, yeah, okay. Maybe he performs more like a second round pick. That's the concern here. And I think he's going to be a particularly safe one. You're just one of those picks that you're going to take and never take out of your starting lineup.
Starting point is 00:47:45 And I love his schedule to begin the season. No tough matchups. Honestly, I don't think there's a tough one until maybe after they're by in week six. And with Mark Ingram on the shelf, maybe they throw just a little bit more in those first four games. I think it's either they throw just a little bit more in those first four games or Terrence West has fantasy value in the first four weeks.
Starting point is 00:48:07 Because Alvin Kamara is not getting 25 carries a game. No. No. I'm enamored with Michael Thomas. I just – I don't know that he gets 149, but I think he gets 125 or more. And what did he have in his first year, 132 targets or something? 122. And he was 1,137 yards, 92 catches, nine touchdowns as a freaking rookie with Brandon Cooks.
Starting point is 00:48:31 I just love Michael Thomas. I would love for him to be my number one pick. Michael Thomas or A.J. Green? I'm going to take Green. I think he has a similar type of positive regression headed his way. Heath? I'll take Thomas and PPR. Michael Thomas or Keenan Allen?
Starting point is 00:48:53 Format matters to me here. Why? Thomas caught 92 passes as a rookie at 104 last year. Yeah, I think Keenan Allen may lead. I'll take Thomas and Standard and Allen and PPR. I think there's a decent chance if Keenan Allen may lead. I'll take Thomas and Standard and Allen and PPR. I think there's a decent chance if Keenan Allen plays 16 games, he leads receivers and catches the shirt.
Starting point is 00:49:10 You know what? I've got him back-to-back with Allen on top in both formats. So I'm taking my comment back. I'm going to go with Keenan Allen. Okay. Let's read some emails. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. We also have a – all right, so this is the original McCaffrey voicemail.
Starting point is 00:49:25 It was very strange. This is from like two weeks ago? Yeah. So let me see if I can pull this up. Well, give me a moment. Let's read an email first. Dear Hank, PFT, and Big Cat. Everybody knows.
Starting point is 00:49:40 Yeah. The barstool dudes. Yeah. What do these players have in common? Julio, Gronk, Green, Kelsey, Lamar Miller, Fitzgerald, and Freeman. All were outscored by at least three kickers in my league last year.
Starting point is 00:49:56 Three points for a field goal, four for a 40-yarder, five for a 50-yarder, etc. My league refuses to change to any version of PPR and doesn't sound like they have any desire to get rid of kickers. It's a six-player keeper league. Given all of this, should I change my draft strategy to get a more elite
Starting point is 00:50:11 kicker? No. No. The only strategy that you have with kickers is when to take one in relation to the remaining DSTs. Yeah, the one change in strategy I might suggest is you could take one in the next to last round instead of the last round.
Starting point is 00:50:33 It really depends on when your last pick is and how long you've got to wait for it, and rather you settle for a DST or settle for a kicker. It's that term settling. And whichever position might be a little thinner on premier talent is the one that you'll take first. I don't think I explained that well at all. Odie is in a two-quarterback league, 10-team two-quarterback league.
Starting point is 00:51:00 He's also in John Arbuckle's house. He has the seventh pick, 10-team, two-quarterback. I'm guessing that Barkley, Aaron Rodgers, and DeAndre Hopkins will be there. Who do you take? I take Hopkins. Yeah, I do too. He says it's non-PPR. Yeah, I think it's Hopkins too.
Starting point is 00:51:24 He didn't say that. Well, which's Hopkins too. He didn't say that. Well, which is it then? He didn't say either. But yeah, we're all on Team Hopkins. Rich from Central New Jersey. Hey, Leonardo, Michelangelo, Donatello, and Raphael. Do you think there is a chance that Ty Montgomery will be converted back to wide receiver? No.
Starting point is 00:51:43 Packers already said as much. Tom in a major city on Lake Michigan. Evanston. Dear Demetrius Harris, Mike Reinfeldt, and Bob Bathurst. I think they're all from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I had to Google this earlier. I want to get your opinion on roster limits in fantasy and if they change your approach to a draft.
Starting point is 00:52:07 I'm in a 12-team, two-quarterback league. We start two skill positions each, but only one DST, one kicker, and flex. We can only roster, it looks like, one backup quarterback, one backup tight end, four running backs, four wide receivers, whatever. Should I avoid handcuffing and more boom-bust players due to their roster restraints? Is there one position I should look to fill my limit on before another? So he has to start two of every position, and he can only roster three quarterbacks, three tight ends, four running backs, and four wide receivers. I would avoid handcuffing. I would not avoid boom bus players.
Starting point is 00:52:47 I might be more likely to target them because if everybody can only have four running backs, there will be more running backs available on the waiver wire. Also, I think he was asking our opinion on roster limits, and I hate them. Yeah, they're terrible. They're terrible. Why would you constrict your owners and your league to something like this? So much so that I don't even like being forced to draft a kicker. If there's waivers before the season starts, you should not be forced to draft a kicker.
Starting point is 00:53:11 But you would force the roster one in week one. Right, which means you've got to cut somebody you draft. Right. I agree. But if you're drafting in the middle of July, I want to go through camp with an extra lottery ticket on my team. Yeah, I like that. All right, let's go to the middle of July. I want to go through camp with an extra lottery ticket on my team. Yeah, I like that. All right, let's go to the voicemails. 954-689-3199.
Starting point is 00:53:30 Here was the original McCaffrey email. Jesus. Let me tell you a couple, three things. You got some... You got some... McCaffrey? McCaffrey? McCaffrey? We just had no idea what he was talking about.
Starting point is 00:53:49 And then I think this is a spoof of that. Hey, Heisenberg. Hey, Heisenberg. I got a couple, three things to tell you. You got to be kidding me. Carry on Williamson? Carry on Williamson? Carry on Williamson?
Starting point is 00:54:03 Carry on Johnson? Whoever the hell. Six rounds? You like that value? I don't like? Kerryon Johnson? Whoever the hell. Six rounds? You like that value? I don't like this value. I'm getting wide receivers. I'm getting wide receivers. You got some.
Starting point is 00:54:12 And you aint it. Let me tell you, my man. You're going to be hurting. If you keep drafting McCaffrey. What are you? You kidding me? You got some. McCaffrey?
Starting point is 00:54:23 So, yeah, now we have a thing. I don't think that was a parody. I think that was the same guy. I don't know. I think it was a different guy. Heath, same guy, different guy. Heath is probably right. Same guy.
Starting point is 00:54:35 Sounds like the same guy to me. I think it was a different guy. And I agree. I don't think you should draft Carrie Ann Williamson. There you go. All right, let's hear some more. This is from, oh, he'll tell us in the voicemail. Hey, guys.
Starting point is 00:54:46 This is Bradford from Chicago. Go Bears, go Cubs. Love the show. Got a keeper question for you. I'm in a 12-person PPR league. I'm choosing between 8th round for Marvin Jones Jr. or 11th round for Chris Hogan. And I was wanting to know what you thought.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Who's the better value? Thanks, guys. Appreciate the show. Have a good one. Eighth round, Marvin Jones. 11th round, Chris Hogan. I'm taking Jones. I like the short-term track record and the likelihood that things aren't going to change and how Detroit's offense operates.
Starting point is 00:55:22 Not that New England's offense is going to change much. But I don't see Hogan as a big breakout candidate like a lot of other people do. Yeah, it's close. I definitely like Jones a lot more than I like Hogan. I'm not sure. I got three-round difference, but it's so late it doesn't really matter. I'll say Jones, but I could understand Hogan.
Starting point is 00:55:44 Do you think if eisenberg eisenberg were here he'd say hogan i don't get that the call that we just got the voicemail eisenberg eisenberg i got a couple three things turn on eisenberg you said turn on breaking bad for once in your life i thought he was saying eberg. He was saying Heisenberg, you putz. Alright, this is our next one. I'm right in your putz. Total and drama. This is Evan calling from Portland, Oregon. Really enjoying the segments
Starting point is 00:56:14 you guys are doing on first round draft picks. Got really pumped to hear you were going to do one on Melvin Gordon. A lot of people probably consider him a borderline first round pick, so I got really excited until I heard that segment. Pretty half-assed intent at it. Pretty much a whole lot of hate about being under four yards per carry.
Starting point is 00:56:32 I get that. But not a whole lot of content in there about his current situation. I think Hunter Henry being out of there can elevate it. Yeah, I think you guys need to do a little bit of a do-over on that one. I'd like to hear that their first eight, nine weeks of the season have some good match-ups for them. Adam, your reply to that was, okay. And then you were ready to move on.
Starting point is 00:56:55 Give me a solid. Let's hear a little bit more about Melvin Gordon. That does sound like something I would say. I'm sure I was trying to move the show along. Okay. And then we moved on. That's your transition is okay that's the only yeah isn't that a beautiful transition that's the only thing i can say bad about melvin gordon is that he has not been good on a per carry basis but he's made up for it in every other way possible yeah i like melvin gordon quite a bit
Starting point is 00:57:19 yeah i i have no problem taking him as a first rounder i consider him a first rounder i'm glad we're getting a little bit more in-depth with him. But now I feel like I want to take Dalvin Cook over Melvin Gordon. Yeah, as much as I love Dalvin Cook, I'm not doing that. I think Gordon will catch more passes, though. I will take Dalvin Cook over Melvin Gordon. PPR as well? I will take Melvin Gordon over to Alvin Cook in PPR.
Starting point is 00:57:46 All right, two more voicemails. Beer, meat, cheese, beans, and Greek yogurt. This is Melvin from California calling. And I've been doing a lot of mock drafts lately and always ending up with Derrick Henry or Amari Cooper in my flex spot. So I just want to get your guys' take on this year, wide receiver versus running back in my flex spot. So I just want to get your guys' take on this year, wide receiver versus running back in the flex spot, either PPR or standard,
Starting point is 00:58:12 and that specific scenario that I end up with. Would you rather have Derek Henry or Amari Cooper this year as a flex? Thanks, guys. You're the best. Bye. Yeah, so, okay, I don't know how on earth Derek Henry and Amari Cooper are your flexes, but just in general, who would you guys rather have? In PPR, Cooper. Yep.
Starting point is 00:58:36 And in standard, Henry. It's really that close. How about half PPR? I might lean toward Cooper in a half PPR. I think I probably would, too too But it's almost a push Yeah But it is a good question about what to do with your flex Running back, receiver
Starting point is 00:58:52 And I think we answered it the best way we could In case of Other than really rare situations Where you just maybe start your draft With three stud running backs for example That's the thing If you start with three running backs— Then you're going to use one in your flex.
Starting point is 00:59:08 What you need to make sure of— The draft I did that in, I started with Le'Veon Bell, Devontae Freeman, and Christian McCaffrey in a PPR draft. So McCaffrey is my flex. I think the way you need to look at it is, am I okay visualizing this as christian mccaffrey is my number one receiver and my number two receiver is my flex yeah right as more and more running backs start catching passes and a lot of passes they become more attractive flex options in in ppr but yeah and that's a trend that's not going away across the league right you're going to see a lot of it this year cool the only thing is i would rather have a guy like i would rather have a wide receiver who has more touchdown
Starting point is 00:59:51 potential than someone like chris thompson you know basically is only going to catch passes person right but chris thompson is in a consideration in the first six rounds oh i bet he is and so for some people in ppr he was in our pick by pick i think he went in the first six rounds. Oh, I bet he is for some people in PPR. In our pick-by-pick, I think he went in the sixth round in a PPR draft. I agree with Dave that he's not one of my considerations either. Guys, have a great weekend, huh? Will you? You too, Adam.
Starting point is 01:00:17 Thank you. Adam, this is my last podcast for a week. For a week? Big deal. I'll see you in two weeks, bud. I'm going to be here all week next week, Adam. You keep bringing the Heathens, right? I'll keep coming in two weeks, bud. I'm going to be here all week next week, Adam. You keep bringing the Heath is Right. I'll keep coming.
Starting point is 01:00:27 We should get Scott Fish on next week. Yes! Yeah, we should do that. We should get some guests on. All right, that is Heath is Right. Dave is on the jury. And Adam Azer is making it to the bathroom on time. Thank you for listening, everybody.
Starting point is 01:00:44 Have a great weekend. I'm not excited. You ended it with talking about you going to the bathroom. Yeah, well, it's good talking to you. What are you doing? Goodbye. Goodbye. Goodbye. I've got Le'Veon. It's alright. Not George Le'Veon. It's alright.
Starting point is 01:01:06 I've got Le'Veon Bell.

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