Fantasy Football Today - 07/02: Unorthodox Draft Strategies (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 2, 2018

Heath has a couple of unusual draft strategies to reveal and analyze, but first let's debate upside and downside for Carlos Hyde, Kerryon Johnson and Isaiah Crowell (1:50) and go through the latest NFL news (10:50) while wondering if the SEA defense will be tough for opposing QBs this season .. Drafting 3 WRs early in a non-PPR league (15:15) and drafting 3 RBs early in a PPR league (22:22), how did those teams turn out? Do you need a Top 12 WR to win a PPR league? Can you start Rex Burkhead confidently in non-PPR? ... Putting Julio Jones under the microscope (36:00)! Why can't this guy score TDs? Can he get back to 100 catches? When is the earliest you can justify drafting Jones? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, taking a little bit of a hiatus from the sleepers, breakouts, and busts,

but still talking upside and downside here. On the Fantasy Football Today podcast, it is a two-man show. Jamie is taking a little vacation. Dave is taking a little vacation. Heath, you and I are the only ones who want to work around here. Well, I think that's true. We care about the listeners. We are here for them, and we are going to give them a fantastic show.

We don't need vacation. No. Why would I need vacation from this? Also, I won't be here next week. Oh, really? Correct. And there's a chance I won't be here the week after that. But after that, we're all going to be here. There will still be shows. There will still be at least three a week for the next

couple of weeks, if not more. Don't worry. We'll get a nice combination together. Dave's coming back next week. Jamie should be back pretty soon. I guess we're all going to take a little bit of a break to get refreshed before the season starts. Today, we've got a fun one for you.

We have a head coach who has his own sushi roll at a local restaurant. We'll talk about that. More importantly, you've got to check out the Pick by Pick series on cbssports.com slash fantasy slash football. It is really good stuff. Strategies of how to pick in each spot in both PPR and non PPR. So we're going to look at a team Heath picked in non PPR picking 11th out of 12 and a team Heath picked in PPR picking first overall and how those teams came together and what he thinks about them.

But let's start out with a Twitter poll. Of these three running backs, Heath, who has the most upside? Carlos Hyde, Karyon Johnson, Isaiah Crowell. Who has the most upside? Carlos Hyde, Karyon Johnson, or Isaiah Crowell? Well, I think the expectation is all three of these running backs are going to be in a timeshare. But I believe Hyde is the most talented. I've always thought he was a very good running back,

and he's shown it from time to time. He's just had a hard time staying healthy. But if you're assuming health for these players, I don't see how you can't say Carlos Hyde. If this Browns offense is good, then you're looking 1,200, 1,300-yard upside with double-digit touchdowns. Well, you have, in less than two and a half minutes, insulted my Twitter followers because they don't agree with you. I didn't insult them.

Well, you said, I don't see how you couldn't. I don't remember what you said, but it was very insulting. Well, they're wrong. Well, there you go they say now carlos high got 40 of the vote but carry on johnson got 50 of the vote for most upside and isaiah coel got 10 i like carry on johnson a lot i think he is very talented he's in a similar situation to hide i just as bad as the browns have been they've still been a better place for running backs than Detroit. It's true, actually.

Detroit has been a wasteland for running backs. But we've said it so many times. They drafted a center, Frank Ragnow, in the first round. They drafted a tackle in the fifth round, but they drafted a fullback in round seven. They were really bad in short yardage last year. Want to change that. They do have LeGarrette Blount. Taylor Decker missed the first half of the season last year.

Travis Swanson had knee and ankle issues. Rick Sagner and TJ Lang played through nagging injuries. This is all from the Detroit News. Detroit had 10 different starting lineup combinations and allowed 47 sacks. So they think their line will be better. It should be better. And Johnson is the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. Carlos Hyde was pretty damn good, too, in the Big Ten.

And you think Cleveland is set up for a better running game? You know, both these teams, actually. And obviously the answer to upside doesn't appear to be Crowell. But both these teams have pretty, I think, good offensive lines, or at least the makings of it. I think that's true as well. I think it's more likely that an offense with Tyrod Taylor or a rookie is more run heavy than an offense with Matthew Stafford.

And they will be more run heavy, I would assume, the Lions, than they have been over the past five years, just because it's hard to run any less than what they've run. But I think both of these teams should be better at running the ball than they were last year. They have better talent at running back. I just think Hyde has more upside. And it was just two years

ago that Isaiah Crowell was a top 15 running back, 15th in non-PPR, 14th in PPR for those Cleveland Browns. They went 1-15 that year. They have four-15 that year. They have four wins over their last three seasons. All right, so moving on to our next Twitter poll. Same names, different question.

Which of these three running backs has the most downside? Carlos Hyde, Kerryon Johnson, or Isaiah Crowell? This is a really hard question to answer, actually. And I feel like Isaiah Crowell probably won easily because he has the least upside. Yes, he did. And that's the way people are looking at it. But all of them have the downside of the second half of the season, they've been beat out. You're right. It's very possible.

I don't think it's likely. I think Hyde's really good, but Chubb could beat Hyde out by the second half of the season or just be hurt. Kerryon Johnson could certainly be in a spot where Theo Riddick's getting all the third down work, LeGarrette Blount's getting the short yardage work, and he's just not that valuable. And Isaiah Crowell could absolutely lose that early down work to either Bilal Powell or Elijah McGuire. So I think they all have a ton of downside.

So the votes were Crowell 46% of the vote and then a tie with Carlos Hyde and Kerryon Johnson 27% apiece. Do you have an answer? Who would you have voted for? Most downside. I probably would have fallen into the same trap everyone else did and said Isaiah Crowell. I'm not sure that it's completely true. I think Crowell has the least compelling competition.

Yeah, all three of them have a guy in their backfield that is or has been very good at catching passes. So that's never a good thing. And because, you know, Powell didn't really do it last year, but that's in his history of being very good in that role. You know, Paul Powell has pretty much never averaged less than four yards per carry. He's always been pretty good, but they don't seem to trust him. And McGuire, I thought he showed some stuff.

I know the numbers don't really indicate it, but I think he showed some stuff last year. Yeah, it is interesting. And Crowell is really being overlooked. I think the reason he has, according to the Twitter voters, the least upside and the most downside is I think they just hate the Jets' offense. I will say if you factor in ADP, he's probably got the most upside and the least downside.

I've drafted a lot more Isaiah Crowell than I have Carlos Hyde and Kerryon Johnson because he's been available much later. He's available in the double-digit rounds often. So how do you rank these three? I believe I have it – let me just pull up the old rankings. Yeah, why don't we find out for sure. We can take a look at that. I'm going to have Crowell higher than you would expect. I actually have it.

Crowell, Hyde, Johnson. Wow, you have Crowell one. I think he has the least amount of competition. I think there's a better chance that he gets 15 carries a game than the other two guys for the season. All right. It's not a bad call. It's not.

I don't know that I'd go that way, and Dave and Jamie wouldn't, but I see where you're going with that. Here's your quote of the day as we move on. By the way, we're going to put a first-round pick under the microscope a little bit later. But here's your quote of the day pardon me i think as a young player getting to this level and then he really ran hard and did a really good job but i think he almost took too many hits i just want him to be able to understand the system more so he can run even smarter

but still never lose that aggressiveness do Do you know who said that? It was an offensive coordinator, but do you know who he was talking about? I mean, there's a lot of guys you could choose. I will guess Leonard Fournette. Yes, congratulations. So again, the quote, I want him to be able to understand the system more so he can run even smarter but still never lose that aggressiveness, and that is Jaguars offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett talking to the Florida Times Union.

Who was also quoted this week as saying that their trust in Blake Bortles means that they can be more aggressive this year. So I'm not sure about his judgment. Yeah, they want him to run smarter. They want him maybe to avoid some hits. Yeah, he almost took too many hits. That's what Hackett said. I would not mind him running smarter either. I think it would be very good if he would run in a way in which he got hit less often and just scored touchdowns.

That would be awesome. I would love that. I would love that. And Heath has lettered Fournette 10th in non-PPR, and in PPR, Fournette is also 10th. So how about that? All right, just wanted to give you that quick quote. I thought you listeners out there would find it interesting. We've got plenty of your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com.

Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We are obviously not here on the 4th, but we have a podcast scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday, so Monday, Tuesday, Thursday this week. Who's coming on on Thursday, Heath? Scott Fish, and I cannot wait. We get to talk about the Scott Fish Bowl. I haven't even heard what division you're in, Adam.

Not at all. But I am very much looking forward to the Scott Fish Bowl getting started, I believe, one week from today. Oh, really? Nice. And, yeah, Scott's a good analyst. He'll give us his opinions. It should be great. So we're looking forward to having him on.

And I think tomorrow, hopefully, we'll get to a lot of emails. Got an email about Kareem Hunt I want to read. Got an email about Jarek McKinnon I want to read. And let's go through the news and notes real quick. I just want to remind everybody about our newsletters. I'm getting them in the inbox. They're really very useful. You can see all the content that's on CBSSports.com.

Get it emailed right to you. Go to CBSSports.com slash FFT Daily. FFT Daily. CBSSports.com slash FFT Daily. And if you want to join a league, you want to play on the best site, you got to do that on CBSSports.com. It's great for Dynasty. The Fantasy app has gotten even better.

The commissioner tools in the Fantasy app are much improved. So you can sign up for that. And if you do this, by the way, you'll show them, hey, we listen to the podcast. Those guys are great. CBSSports.com slash FFT. Again, the two URLs are if you want to sign up for a league, CBSSports.com slash FFT. Come on, start playing on our website. It's the best.

And if you want the newsletter, CBSSports.com slash FFT Daily. FFT Daily. All right, Heath playing on our website. It's the best. And if you want the newsletter, cbssports.com slash fftdaily, fftdaily. All right, Heath, news and notes. Robert Turbin, Colts running back, he has suspended four games for a PED violation. Your response, your reaction to this? I guess it clears up the situation just a little bit. No one was excited about Robert Turbin, but he certainly could muddy the water even more in Indianapolis if he was a part of it from the very beginning of the season. As long as Marlon Mack

should be okay, this gives him a little bit more room. All right. Robert Turbin suspended four games. Cam Chancellor, unfortunately, it seems like if he plays he risks paralysis. Chancellor appears to be retiring. He didn't say that, but he hinted at it.

And meanwhile, Earl Thomas is still holding out. So I actually was reading about it today. Have you seen this? Am I like the last one to see it, but they're calling it the Legion of Whom? You were not the last person to see it. I had not seen it, but I do like it a lot. Legion of Whom. Yes, I saw that in

the newspaper today. The last seven quarterbacks to face Seattle after Chancellor and Sherman both got hurt against the Cardinals, I think, in Week 10. The last seven quarterbacks, they didn't do as well in fantasy production as I thought. But Matt Ryan scored 20 fantasy points. The 49ers started C.J. Beathard. He did poorly. Garoppolo came in, threw two passes. One of them was a touchdown.

Carson Wentz scored 18 points, but this is six points for passing touchdown leagues, but he had 348 passing yards on 45 attempts. Blake Bortles scored 22 points, and then Dak Prescott and Drew Stanton struggled, five points and nine points respectively. You know, they think they've got some young talent in the secondary. I'm assuming Earl Thomas is going to play. play i mean most players that hold out come back

but i don't know i mean it's not a matchup that scares me anymore not at all in fact i have been too cautious or afraid to say that it might be a matchup we take advantage of but i certainly think that's more possible than this is an elite defense that we're scared of. Their schedule, they don't really face, look, there are a lot of good quarterbacks in this league, let's be clear, but they're not facing one of the elites until maybe November 15th when they get Aaron Rodgers and then Cam Newton back to back. Well, that's almost good because we weren't going to sit the elites against them anyway,

so we're going to get a lot of guys that we maybe wouldn't have been able to use in a given week because they're facing Seattle, and it won't be a problem this year. Right, so it's Keenum, Trubisky, Prescott, whoever's quarterbacking for Arizona in week four, Goff, Carr, Stafford, Rivers, Goff again, and then Rodgers and Newton. Look, I mean, Goff, Rivers, maybe you want to argue that they could be in the elite. It's fine. I'm just saying they're not, you know, it's not Brady. It's not, obviously, it's not Wilson.

It's not, you know, the short list of incredible quarterbacks. More news and notes. The NFL says Jameis Winston could be banned from the league if he violates the personal conduct policy again. So that's got to give you a little bit of pause in Dynasty Leagues, right, Jameis? Absolutely. Yeah.

And the Buccaneers released former starting guard J.R. Sweezy, and Philadelphia linebacker Nigel Bradham is suspended for one game. So who's that head coach that has his own sushi roll from a restaurant called The Cowfish in North Carolina? It's Ron Rivera. Do you want the Ron Rivera sushi roll? I probably not. I've never had a sushi roll or any type of thing associated with sushi that I

enjoyed. Yeah, Heath and I don't like sushi. That's kind of why I brought this up. I guess that means we have to root against Carolina now. I don't think that's what it means at all um i just hope the team doesn't eat them and get sick or something will brinson wrote the article on our site uh the inside of the roll is the soft shell crab presumably lightly fried along with connie and cucumber i don't know if i pronounce connie right k-a-n-I. The roll is then topped with avocado, eel

sauce, and spicy mayo. Bonus, it comes with a side of poke. P-O-K-E? I don't know. Pokey? And avocado. And then Will says... You really nailed this segment. Yes, please. Will's into this. The roll is not cheap. It costs $17, but you can indulge yourself with the sushi roll

and feel good about helping a worthwhile cause with proceeds from the roll going to help charity. That's nice. I'd buy a sushi roll if it helped charity. I wouldn't eat it. I'd give it to someone else, but I'd do that. All right, Heath. Let's look at some of your teams in the pick-by-picks.

And you want to start – let's start with the non-PPR and the 11th overall pick. You did something very unorthodox. Again, this was the 11th overall pick in a non-PPR and the 11th overall pick. You did something very unorthodox. Again, this was the 11th overall pick in a non-PPR league. What did Heath Cummings do? It was crazy. Well, I think that was the reason I gave you these two teams because both of them were unorthodox. The PPR one as well. From the 11th spot, I think it's one of the best places in the draft if you want to forego running back early. I got Julio Jones with the 11th spot, I think it's one of the best places in the draft if you want to forego running back early. I got Julio Jones with the 11th pick overall,

A.J. Green with the second pick of the second round, and then I took Demarius Thomas with my third pick, three wide receivers at the start of a non-PPR draft. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Demarius Thomas, picking 11th out of 12 in a 12-team non-PPR league. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Demarius Thomas, picking 11th out of 12 in a 12-team non-PPR league. Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Demarius Thomas. Now, he likes Demarius Thomas. I know Jamie's a little afraid of Demarius Thomas.

It's interesting. And then your next three picks are running backs. Like the thing with Demarius Thomas, I don't – they have not added someone that I expect is going to take targets from him. They don't have a great quarterback, but they have a better quarterback than they've had the last couple of years. He had a down year last year, but you look at what he's done with bad quarterbacks over the last several years. At the end of the third round, I like him in both formats. I don't want to speak for him, but I think Jamie feels like the arrow is pointing down.

He's sort of trending the wrong way, and there are some injuries that he's been dealing with. And that's kind of spooking him a little bit. I think he was doing that hamstring thing. Have you seen that? Where they put their hands behind their back, and they lower their nose to the ground without touching the ground, and then pull back up from their knees? All right, I'm going to, wait. Okay, let's see. What do we do here? Okay, up from their knees. All right, I'm going to wait. Okay, let's see.

What do we do here? Okay, get on your knees. Get on my knees. Yes. Okay, I got to put your hands behind your back. Uh-huh. Lower your face to the ground without touching the ground and then pull back up.

There's got to be something I'm missing here because that was very easy. Do I... I'm just on my knees Lower my face to the ground And then pull back up You have to keep your back straight Oh okay I don't know I don't get it

I think I'm doing it wrong That was interesting Yeah I don't think that worked I think that would have worked really well If you would have landed with your nose on the ground and yelped just a little bit was what we were all hoping for. I'm pretty sure you were not doing that exercise the right way. I don't think so.

I don't think I'm in quite as good a shape as Marius Thomas. But all right, so who are the three running backs you took after that? After that, I took Rashad Penny to start the fourth round. At the end of the fifth round, I took Rex Burkhead, Deion Lewis in the sixth, and then I also took Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell in the eighth and the eleventh. Okay. And, like, Penny, I don't necessarily like taking him at the start of the fourth round in a PPR draft, but I do think amongst the rookie running backs,

he is the most likely right now to be involved in all phases of the game. His coach has said as much. And then I like Burkhead more than any other Patriots running back in standard or non-PPR or PPR. And I think Lewis has got quite a bit upside where he's at as well. All right, let's recap here. 11th overall pick, Julio Jones, then A.J. Green, then Demarius Thomas. So that's two wide receivers and a flex right there in Demarius. Your running backs, Rashad Penny

and Rex Burkhead. And your depth, Deion Lewis, Isaiah Crowell, and Bilal Powell. So Penny and Burkhead, theoretically your starters. You've got Crowell. You could throw him in there. You've got Deion Lewis. You've got Bilal Powell. And you've got

Kyle Rudolph at tight end. And you also have Kelvin Benjamin, who you took at the end of the ninth round. I know you like that pick a lot. And Tyrell Williams in the twelfth round. Okay, so I think Burkhead really might make

or break the team. And I just don't know if there's enough work there because he scored a ton of touchdowns for the amount of touches that he had. His 16-game pace would have been 214 touches and 13 touchdowns. That's a lot, right? Oh, yeah. That's a ton. And I don't know that I necessarily expect him – I don't expect him to match that touchdown rate. I think at the beginning of the year, he may actually get more touches than he got last year on a per-game basis.

That may fade later in the year with Sonny Michel getting more involved. I'm not sure at this point. But Burkhead should be involved in early downs i don't think he'll completely cede passing down work to james white and right now i would guess he's the most likely running back to be in that goal line role yeah well he scored five rushing touchdowns last year only played 10 games five rushing touchdowns last year four of them were from three yards out or closer and rex burkhead i mean new england had so many carries inside the five yards last year, four of them were from three yards out or closer. And Rex Burkhead, I mean, New England had so many carries inside the five-yard line last year. Mike Gillisley had eight carries inside the five in nine games.

I think five of those were week one. Oh, that's possible. And Burkhead himself had seven carries inside the five-yard line in only ten games. So, yeah, that's a nice roll for him. That's not exactly something new for New England either. How many carries inside the ten did LeGarrette Blount have the year before last? I could look it up, but I don't think we have to because, yeah, your point is made. Dozens.

Right, right. They're going to get a lot of short-yard touchdowns for sure. And if Burkhead had played 16 games at that pace, he would have been the number 15 running back in non-PPR, number 16 in PPR. Okay, and then so again we'll recap and we'll wrap this up. Your starting lineup would have been Kirk Cousins at quarterback, Rashad Penny and Rex Burkhead at running back, Julio Jones and A.J. Green at wide receiver,

and then Demarius Thomas at flex. Or maybe it's Isaiah Crowell or Dion Lewis. And Kyle Rudolph at tight end. With Calvin Benjamin, Bilal Powell, Tyra Williams on your bench. I don't think this is a strategy. I'm not purposefully going into drafts this year saying I'm going to take wide receiver early, wide receiver early. But when you're in the back half of the draft, I do think this is the way to go.

I think it's the way to go on PPR. I don't think I do. Well, then you're going to love this PPR team we're going to talk about. Well, it had the first pick, right? It had the first pick overall, yes. Yeah, because in PPR, if you have a late pick, you can still get two top eight wide receivers, and the running backs that you're going to get in the fourth and fifth round

are going to be better than Rashad Penny and Rex Burkhead. They should be, yes. Although I'm not sure I will like the guys that people are going to take there more than those guys. Okay. All right, so then let's take a look at the PPR team that you drafted. This is not up on the website yet, but it will be shortly. Correct. You had the first overall pick in a 12-team PPR league,

and you started with three running backs. So instead of three receivers in non-PPR, three running backs in PPR. Oh, my gosh. I love your first. I love at least two of your first three picks. I got no beef with the other one, but go on. With the number one pick, you took Le'Veon Bell, and then you waited until picks 24 and 25, and you grabbed who?

Devontae Freeman and Christian McCaffrey were both there. I couldn't decide between them, so I just took both of them. And the way that I look at this, yes, Christian McCaffrey is now your flex in a PPR league. I would like to look at him more, though, as my number one wide receiver. Of course. He was, with the way he produced last year, a top 10 wide wide receiver if you look at scoring that way in the ppr format and so i i bell is my number one running back davante freeman is about as good as it gets as a number two running back mcafree if you look at him as a flex is obviously about as good as you can have

as a flex and there are plenty of wide receivers i just threw darts at wide receivers for basically for basically the rest of the draft personally i bell and mccaffrey and ppr is right now my favorite combination of any two players in any format that any realistic combination i'd rather have bell and girly but you know right uh you took technically you took freeman ahead of mcafree but they're back-to-back picks so who do you rank higher i do rank freeman higher i there were some bad things there is a little bit of risk from last year with freeman's concussion issues there's a little bit of risk and not knowing exactly how the split's going to go between freeman and coleman on a week-to-week basis.

But I expect he's going to score more than he did last year. I expect the Falcons are going to be better in the red zone than they were in 2017. And I think both of these guys are elite number two running backs in PPR with top five or six upside. So the question now is, let's see how the rest of the team turned out. The question is, can you start with three running backs in a PPR league and field a good lineup? And then one of the wrinkles that you'll see is where he took quarterback, which is pretty early because he took Aaron Rodgers.

There's one stat I'd like to pull up very quickly here. Le'Veon Bell had 85 catches. Christian McCaffrey had 80 catches. They were both, I think, top 15 in catches last year among all players. Right. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14. They were both top 14 among all players in catches. So I have been saying that. It doesn't

matter where you get your catches as long as you're getting them. All right. So first three picks are running backs, Le'Veon Bell, Christian McCaffrey, Devontae Freeman. Then take me through your next several picks. It got a little bit weird at the 4-5 turn. I'm perfectly happy with taking Michael Crabtree at that turn. I think there's a ton of opportunity in baltimore there's not any receivers that should really challenge him for targets and joe flacco is not a very good quarterback but derrick carr wasn't great last year either and that was crabtree's one down year i expect crabtree is good in the red zone and gets a ton of targets and is a solid number two in PPR. Then I took Aaron Rodgers in the fifth round, and that is weird for me.

I don't usually take quarterback any time in the first seven or eight picks, but with the way this team had started, I felt so good about my running backs and so good about my flex slash wide receiver one, and i knew there would be receivers that i liked that were going to continue to fall so i just took rogers and then took receiver with my next four picks the only thing that made me feel bad about taking aaron rogers in the fifth round was with my lack of depth at wide receiver it meant i was basically going to punt tight end and we'll talk about that in a minute. The next four wide receivers I took were Devontae Parker, Jamison Crowder, Marquise Goodwin,

and Kelvin Benjamin. Yeah, and this is like, some of these guys are your guys. In fact, I would say three of them, Parker, Goodwin, and Benjamin, I've heard you talk a lot about. You sort of seem to be high on them. I don't know how you feel about Jamison Crowder. I don't know how I feel about Jamison Crowder. I don't know how I feel about Jamison Crowder. Your team scares me, I'm not going to lie. With wide receiver unit of Crabtree, Parker, Crowder, Goodwin, and Calvin Benjamin. It scares me. I can easily see a situation where one of those guys, two of those guys are droppable.

I have a hard time believing they're all going to bust. Parker in particular, and I was way down on him in the past and I've made fun of you and I've called him Devante Parker Floyd, but I just started looking at the math of it. Last year's pace,

he was on pace for 118 targets. That was with Jarvis Landry on the team. If you just give him a 10% increase because Landry's gone, he's not going to get all those targets, obviously. Some of them go to Albert Wilson. Some go to Danny Amendola. But if you just bump him up 10% to 130, he's caught 60% of his targets basically for his career.

He averages around 13 yards per reception for his career. That's 77 catches for 1,000 yards. That's not a breakout. That's just Devontae Parker staying on the field. 77 catches. I mean, if you get that with the last pick of the sixth round, that's, what is that, 72nd overall? 77 catches there would be huge.

All right, so let me ask you a question. So, again, I know it's easier for me and Heath because we're looking at the teams. I'm just going to keep repeating it for everybody. He's got Aaron Rodgers. He's got him in the fifth round. Running backs are Le'Veon Bell, Devontae Freeman, and Christian McCaffrey. Those were his first three picks. I don't know.

Like, if those four stay healthy and are what we expect them to be, I'm not really sure how much receiver is going to matter. Because, yeah, but except Freeman and McCaffrey both have their risks. I mean. They do. That's why I said if, like, it's going to be highly dependent on that happening. But that four to start a team, if they meet expectations, it's going to be a good team whether I'm playing these receivers or guys I pick up off the

waiver wire. You know who I would have liked for your team? Who is that, Adam? Julian Edelman. Yeah. Well, you know, because you sit it out for four games. I don't think Julian Edelman was ever available to me in this draft. He went before Crabtree?

Well, I'm not going to take a guy that I didn't like in the first place and is now suspended for four games, and Adam Azer has told me how hard it is to come back from ACA. Yeah, I did not going to take a guy that I didn't like in the first place and is now suspended for four games, and Adam Azer has told me how hard it is to come back from ACA. He went right after the Crabtree-Rogers turn. Yeah. I would rather have Parker Crowder for sure over him. Okay. Maybe you should have taken Edelman or another wide receiver

who went around there instead of Rodgers. Well, the next receivers to go, Chris Hogan, Sammy Watkins, Brandon Cooks. Cooks. I could have taken Brandon Cooks. He went 10 picks later. Yeah, I guess they're not. You know what? Take a great player.

Take a great player. I'm all about that this year because you're going to be good on the waiver wire. All right. I'm a little uneasy. And so, yes, you did have to punt on tight end. You have Eric Ebron, who you took with the last pick of the 12th round. And I still maintain that Eric Ebron is the best pass-catching tight end on the Colts. And I'm getting more comfortable with the idea that Andrew Luck's going to be

fine this year. If Andrew Luck is fine this year, then I expect Eric Ebron's going to be a top 10 tight end. How do you feel that confident in Ebron being the best pass catcher when he can't really catch passes? And Doyle was a great pass catcher last year. Doyle was used more like a fullback last year. He was like high-volume Kyle Juszczyk.

Now, maybe he lined up in the H-back slot or over at tight end occasionally, but he averaged 8.6 yards per reception. Yeah. Well, what did Ebron average? I'll take a look. Ebron averaged 10bron average 10.8 10.8 that's that's considerably more it sure is it sure is and that was a down year for him he's generally an 11 yard per reception guy no i mean the thing is about it like i'm not it's gonna be very rare situation

that i take a tight end and a quarterback early. Yeah. And I feel pretty confident in my ability to stream slash pick up off the waiver wire a low-end number one tight end on a weekly basis. Okay, last thing then. So you start with three running backs. Then you take Michael Crabtree and Aaron Rodgers. And then your next four picks are Devontae Parker, Jamison Crowder, Marquise Goodwin, Kelvin Benjamin.

Since you already have your flex figured out and you're only starting two wide receivers and you've already got Michael Crabtree, did you have to go with wide receivers 2, 3, 4, and 5 on your team or could you have taken a tight end there and say gone Parker, Crowder, tight end Kelvin Benjamin or tight end Marquise gone parker crowder tight end kelvin benjamin or tight end marquise goodwin i possibly could have the thing about this team and i did take austin eckler and below pal a little bit later in the draft but i don't really have a lot of depth at running back

obviously i have three studs if one of those guys gets hurt and you should probably expect that one of your top three running backs is going to get hurt, then all of a sudden I don't have a running back at flex. Yeah, that's true. Okay. All right, Heath. So which team did you like better? The standard scoring team that drafted three wide receivers at the 11th spot or the PPR team that drafted three running backs with the first pick overall? I think it's the three running back team just because I see like if, and I think it's the three running back team Just because I see If And I think there's a really good chance That two of these wide receivers are top 25 wide receivers If that happens

This team could be devastatingly good But don't you need like A top 10 wide receiver To win Not if you have three top 12 running backs And the number one quarterback I would love to know if a team can win in PPR with average at best wide receivers. I do a really bad job of this.

I hear something really smart, and then I can't remember where I hear it. But I heard somebody say the other day, it doesn't matter where you get your receptions from. No, it doesn't matter where you get your receptions from. But these guys, they just might not be that good. I mean, Devontae Parker, I see what you see in Parker. I'm cool with it. But Crabtree, Parker, Crowder, Goodwin, Benjamin, there's a chance they're all dropped by midseason.

I think that's really unlikely. It's a numbers game. No, I don't think that all of them. Maybe all five of them are terrible. No, I don't think. Right, right. Okay, they're not all going to be dropped. It would be very unlikely that every single one of them is dropped.

But they all have the chance to be dropped individually by midseason. I would agree with that, yes. Right. So it's okay. All right. Hey, look. I like – this is good content. You've got to look at this content and this team and see if you're okay with it.

And if you are, understand what you can get. I just personally have not been able to get Christian McCaffrey 24th overall in a PPR league. But, man, I hope I can. Well, I think the best thing about this series – because it's obviously just not my teams. Dave and Jamie each have four teams in each draft. There's 24 different teams and breakdowns of our thought process as we are going through it. And virtually every strategy is represented. So you go through these teams and you're going to have a good idea of what strategies you feel comfortable with going into this year and what strategies you don't.

Sure. Tomorrow I'm going to look at some of Heath's rankings. Why does he have Deion Lewis ahead of Derrick Henry in PPR? There's a tight end that he's got in his top 15 that surprised me. Very much looking forward to talking about that. And a quarterback that I thought he really liked outside the top 20. A little teaser for tomorrow's show. But for today, I know Heath likes the SeatGeek app because we've

all got the SeatGeek app on our phone. And you can even go to SeatGeek.com if you want to take the two seconds to put the app on your phone. But what you do on SeatGeek, look, this is the new way to get tickets. This is it. Get your tickets on SeatGeek. SeatGeek's all over the place. I just saw an ad for it

on Sunday Night Baseball last night. I know the Dallas Cowboys are using SeatGeek. This is the big time company now for tickets. And we can save you 20 bucks on your first purchase. What you do is you download the SeatGeek app, you make a purchase, and use the code FFT. You get 20 bucks off your first purchase. FFT is the code on SeatGeek for 20 bucks off. It searches multiple ticket sites for you. So instead of you going out and trying to find the best deal, SeatGeek does it for you. Saves you time, saves you money. Every purchase is fully guaranteed. You can shop for

tickets on SeatGeek with confidence. I have used SeatGeek for baseball, football, basketball, college basketball, concerts. You can use it for comedy. You can use it for theater. Make SeatGeek your go-to app for the best deals on every type of ticket and use that code FFT for $20 off your first purchase. And even after you use that code, it's going to save you money because it's such a good and efficient app. Again, the code is FFT on SeatGeek. All right, let's put a first-round pick, Heath, under the microscope. We've already done Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, DeAndre Hopkins,

Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Melvin Gordon, Michael Thomas, and Saquon Barkley. Let's go with Julio Jones. He'll be a first-round pick in a lot of drafts. He'll be a second-round pick in some, but he's right up there. Was actually fourth in non-PPR, seventh in PPR last year. Down year for wide receivers. Three touchdowns. Also, one huge game. 12 catches, 253 yards, and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers in Week 12. He had one touchdown, rest of season. He had five games with double-digit fantasy points in non-ppr it was disappointing

despite julio jones finishing fourth in non-ppr and seventh ppr i think it was a little bit disappointed disappointing maybe i'm wrong was i am i wrong was he disappointing last year there are a lot of people on twitter like to mock the never julio crowd and um i understand the frustration. I think it was disappointing that he only scored three touchdowns. I would hesitate to say that he had a disappointing year, if that makes sense. He didn't do anything.

Right, right. It wasn't his fault, but he had an unlucky year with touchdowns, and he was a, despite being the number four wide receiver in standard, he was a little disappointed. That's the point, though. That's the point. And it was a down despite being the number four wide receiver in standard, he was a little disappointed. That's the point, though. That's the point. And it was a down year for receiver, but what are we saying, that he should have been the number seven or eight wide receiver? That would – if this hadn't been a down year for receiver, sure.

That's the floor with Julio. He's awesome. If he's been there in the second round of a few drafts that I've done, I am going to take him in the second round every single time. I took him in the first round of the 11th pick in a non-PPR draft. I feel perfectly comfortable with that. He has the potential. I think it's just as likely that he scores 10 touchdowns,

which he's done once in his career this year, as he scores three again next year, and more likely he's going to score seven or eight. Since we're putting him under a microscope, let's talk a lot about Julio and figure out how we feel about him. But Julio Jones, he has not finished any lower than eighth in non-PPR or seventh in PPR in his last four seasons. In those four seasons, Julio Jones has played 15, 16, 14, and 16 games. So he's played

through injury. That's an issue with him. Another issue is that Matt Ryan hasn't been throwing that much the last two seasons. Atlanta has ranked 26th and 20th in pass attempts per game. Another issue, they used a first round pick on Calvin Ridley. So maybe that takes away some targets. Maybe. And the other issue is that he just never scores touchdowns. And it's just weird. Whether or not he's getting a lot of red zone targets, which has been the case in the last two of the last four seasons, and a lot of targets inside the five, or whether or not he's not getting targeted near the end zone, which has been the case in the other two of those last four seasons. Julio Jones just does not score a lot of touchdowns, and it's weird.

What concerns you, if anything, about Julio Jones? I mean, I'm concerned that—I'm not concerned about the targets. I always have this little thing in the back of my head that's a little concerned about the foot, but any time a player has a foot injury in their past. But not too much. There's obvious worry that Julio's bad touchdown run continues. If he scores eight, that's not a bad year for touchdowns, I don't think.

He scored eight in 2015. But he's had six, six, and three in the other of the last four years. So that is the concern, and that's the reason that I don't draft him with a fifth or sixth round overall pick and instead wait until the end of the first. But he's still – there's maybe one or two receivers that are more likely to have 1,400 yards this year than he is. Oh, right. That's the thing. I mean 1,400 yards has been the lowest for him in the last four seasons and that's amazing and he's going to catch 80 passes and there's we've seen it two of the last four years he topped 100 catches so i don't like it's just

the stupid touchdowns it is even even the stupid touchdowns are not enough to keep you from taking julio jones at the end of the first round. All right, so I will say this. The catches. The last two years, 83 and 88 catches for Julio Jones, not great. Well, the 83 was in 14 games. That is true. It maybe makes him a little bit worse in PPR if you don't think he's going to be a 100-catch guy,

and maybe he is, you know. But like I said, Matt Ryan has not been throwing the ball that much the last two years. So I don't know. I'm not sure he gets to 100. Probably would break 90, though. Yeah, I don't have him. Like my expectation for Julio is not 100 catches.

I don't think there's any expectation for Julio is not 100 catches. I don't think there's any reason to believe it's possible, but that shouldn't be your expectation. I was going to check and see what I had him at for my expectations piece for the Falcons. I would guess it's right around 90, 94. Okay. What's the earliest you would take Julio Jones? Probably 10, 9 or 10. And you beckham ahead of jones right i do so you have brown hopkins beckham and then jones and non-ppr and in ppr you have brown hopkins

keenan allen beckham michael thomas julio jones, and those guys, the difference after you get past Brown and Hopkins is minuscule. It's interesting that you have Keenan Allen ahead of Odell. And PPR. I'm trying not to make too much of a deal out of Hunter Henry not being on the team and them not really having a starting caliber tied in right now,

but even if they bring back Antonio Gates, Keenan Allen has had a monster number of targets when he's been healthy, and that's been with them throwing a higher percentage of their targets to tight ends than almost any team in the league. There's no way they can throw the ball 140 times to their tight ends this year. They're going to have to throw it more to the running backs and wide receivers, and I don't think there's any reason to think none of that spills over to Keenan Allen. Sorry for transitioning from Julio Jones, but yeah, Keenan Allen actually is like Julio Jones.

He has a touchdown problem, and maybe that will go up this year because those red zone targets are open for business now. Exactly. Yeah, another pretty good call. I don't know that I'd have the guts to take Keenan Allen over Beckham in PPR, but I totally see it. In our PPR draft, I took Keenan Allen 7th. I'm assuming that was ahead of Beckham. Yes, it was.

All right, so Julio Jones has been under the microscope. Seems like a pretty good bet for 400 yards, just one thing. Or 1,400 yards. He'll get 400, I think, yeah. Probably in one game. Has Beckham had a 1,400-yard season? I don't know that he has. Let's take a look. He's been a little hurt. He played only 12 games his rookie season. Beckham, yes, he had 1450 in 2015. That's his high. All right, let's read some emails. Fantasyfootball at CBSI.com.

Fantasyfootball at CBSI.com. This is from Jason from a town north of Tijuana. San Diego. With everyone projecting the Minnesota Vikings to win 10-plus games, I haven't made a projection on that officially, by the way, is there a possibility that Latavius Murray becomes LeGarrette Blount from 2016 and gets 200 carries just icing games away in the second half? There's a possibility of that. Wait a second, wait a second, wait a second.

He meant Latavius Murray. Right. Oh, yeah. Yeah, but then I read LeGarrette Blount thinking that I misspoke. He He meant Latavius Murray. Right. Oh, yeah. Yeah, but then I read the Garrett Blunt thinking that I misspoke. He was comparing Murray to Blunt. Yes. Is it possible that Murray becomes the ice the game guy?

Yeah, go ahead. I think it's possible he becomes the ice the game guy. Barring an injury to Delvin Cook, I have a hard time seeing how he gets to 200 carries. If I try to account for all of the Vikings' carries just between Kirk Cousins, Cook, and Murray or all their run plays, I still just get him to 135. So you're probably going to need a Cook injury for that to happen. But I do think he could be the game in the fourth quarter guy. I think they could have some big leads. By the way, I looked at the first three games before Dalvin Cook got hurt.

I looked at the combined carries for Latavius Murray and Jarek McKinnon. They combined for 15 carries, five per game, in the first three games of the season. That's not very many. Yeah. All aboard the Dalvin Cook train.

Hey, Heath, before I read more emails, I have a question. Okay. We have a Fantasy Baseball Today podcast that we do. It's kind of a different show. It's got like more segments. It's got a lot more segments. Maybe like almost twice as many. Yeah.

Do you think there are any segments we should borrow from FBT to bring over to FFT? Oh, there is absolutely one. I just hope you have the music queued up. This music? Yes. I think hope you have the music queued up. This music? Yes. I think we should do it. I think I was a little hesitant, but now I say people love it on FBT, Fantasy Baseball Today. Let's bring it over here to Fantasy Football Today.

Love it. What is this segment? These are the fantasy regulators, baby. Oh, yeah. So basically we just read emails and put this music behind it, the regulate music. Well, but a specific kind of email. Exactly. We want to regulate your league disputes.

I'm going to keep the music going. Why not? We want to regulate your league disputes. What we don't want is a lot of trade veto questions. It's got to be like, okay, we'll do a couple of those. But, you know, hey, people are pissed off. Somebody's been cheating. This commissioner did this. We want to regulate. Send it to the fantasy regulators. If you have a league issue, we will regulate. What you're going to do is send an email to to fantasyfootball at cbsi.com and put fantasy regulators football or fantasy football regulators. Those three words have to be in there. Fantasy football regulators in the subject line. If they

aren't, it's probably not getting read. It's going to get mixed in with the baseball emails. But it's a fun segment and I'd like to do it on this show. Woo-hoo. All right, here we go. New email from Tyler. Dear Dave, Jamie, and Heath, all the people on the show. Oh, ouch. Tyler, that is shade that has been thrown. My 12-team PPR league is using the World Cup to determine draft order. We took out the top and bottom teams that numbered 1 through 12 and 12 to 1 with remaining teams and used a number assignment generator to give everyone two teams. You get the points per group stage, then additional points for advancing using tournament tiebreakers and a golden boot bonus if selected right.

Whoever gets first in points gets to pick their draft position. Second gets to pick next and so on. My question is, what draft positions would you pick with the first choice, second choice, and so on through the first five choices? P.S., I got South Korea and Russia. I've been drinking a lot of vodka, and I may be a communist now. Man, Russia's worked out well for Tyler. He probably thought when he drew South Korea and Russia that things weren't going to go great.

But yeah, this has worked out extremely well for him. I'd say he's definitely going to get one of his first four or five choices. You know, you would think I would have a very strong take on this, having just done eight drafts from eight different draft positions. I like the middle of the draft.

As much as I like that team that I drafted in PPR with the three running backs, I hate the way the middle of that draft works and the middle of all drafts work when you are that far from your next pick every time you make a selection so i would probably first choose fifth or sixth to guarantee getting me one of the top three running backs and antonio brown or davante deandre hopkins in fact i'll say fifth then fourth then sixth sixth. Okay, that's fine. In a non-PPR league, I don't know what the format is here.

Did he say? He said it's a PPR league. PPR. All right, so I'll let you cover that. But in a non-PPR league, I'm very tempted to take the third overall pick just to get Ezekiel Elliott or, obviously, Bell or Gurley. But there are eight wide receivers that I feel great about, just to get Ezekiel Elliott or obviously Bell or Gurley. But there are eight wide receivers that I feel great about,

and then there could be nine or ten, depending on how you feel about Mike Evans and depending on how Andrew Luck does and if T.Y. Hilton joins that group. But I'd say that my goal is to get one of those eight to ten wide receivers. For me, it's eight right now plus a stud running back and wherever i can do that i'm in and i think see i think in ppr do you like that third running back we'll say ezekiel elliott and mike evans more than if you can get deandre hopkins and leonard fournette or Dalvin Cook? I like Fournette and Cook better.

Yeah. Yeah, that's why I think I prefer taking that Hopkins or Brown pick. And sometimes it is Brown following as far as fifth because David Johnson goes in front of him. Yeah, yeah. All right, thank you for the email, Tyler. Matt from a city – oh, the city of bad sports teams. Well, I think that'd be Cleveland now, right?

Yeah, but you know what? The Indians are good. You realize how bad New York sports is other than the Yankees? I mean, it is bad. The Knicks are terrible. The Nets are terrible. The Mets are terrible. The Islanders just lost their captain.

I think the Rangers are bad. The Jets and Giants are terrible. The Yankees are the only good team in New York. I'm not 100% sure about hockey, but I feel like that's true. You didn't even mention soccer during the World Cup. How dare you? Well, I don't know what the – what are they, like the Red Bulls or something? I think that's right.

Yeah. Okay, so let's just say Cleveland. Cleveland does not rock. I love the idea of Watson as my quarterback, but here's a thought. He's a young quarterback who looked comfortable in the pocket last year and made great decisions, but maybe the ACL tear will lower Watson's confidence and or make him nervous when the pressure comes what do you think to sean watson i got a similar tweet after our carson wince discussion of why don't you feel the same way about watson that you do wince there's a couple things to that one is watson's

injury happened much earlier so he's farther along in the recovery process or further if you want to say it correctly i do and and the other thing is wince's knee injury was more complex than watson's it was a pretty standard standard acl tear i don't think this is that far out of line the drafts i been in, he's still there in the seventh, eighth round. And if that's the case, I'm fine with taking the risk on his upside. I've drafted him in a couple of drafts so far. He's not going to be somebody I target in every single draft, but I definitely want to have some exposure. This is from Lori in Bakersfield. I've been doing some mock drafts on CBS Sports and I have the fourth pick in PPR. Kamara is going third or fourth in most of these drafts, even when auto draft is on for

players. Does it make sense to take Alvin Kamara before David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, or Antonio Brown? Nope, it does not. And you're going to see that happen in PPR drafts. I believe in at least one of ours, Jamie backed it out because he thought it was too early and made the guy pick somebody else. But yeah, that's going to happen. He's my

number five running back in PPR, but I would take Johnson, Elliott, Gurley, Bell, Brown, Hopkins all for sure before him, and I'd probably take a couple more receivers. This email is from Brian, Dear Axel, Slash,

Duff, and Izzy. You want me to say it's Guns N' Roses it's guns and roses okay okay do you like guns and roses i like a couple of guns and roses songs a lot um i'm not a guns and roses fan i've never been to a concert i don't't listen to very many of their songs, but a few of them are great. I agree with everything you just said. A long-time listener, but I haven't made the playoffs in five years. Oh, sorry, Brian. That's on us. 10-team

PPR Keeper League, unless you don't pay attention that it's on you. Three first round picks, and I'm keeping Kamara and Wentz in the ninth and tenth round. Oh my god. You have three first round picks, and you're keeping Kamara and Wentz in the ninth and tenth round. Oh, my God. You have three first-round picks, and you're keeping Kamara and Wentz in the ninth and tenth rounds of a 10-team PPR league. You better win. Which of the following teams do you like best to pair with Kamara? Oh, this is how you get Adam Azer to read your email.

Send an email that has to do with one of his games. What do you mean, my games? It's the pairings game. But it's three of them. Even better. Okay. Do you like, along with Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, Christian McCaffrey, and Rob Gronkowski?

Oh, this is so easy. I should have read ahead. It's so easy. Julio Jones, Christian McCaffrey, and Rob Gronkowski? Or Saquon Barkley, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefan Diggs. I will take the Julio McCaffrey-Gronkowski side. Yep, easy. P.S. I don't know if Jerry Maguire is a football movie,

but I know if football wasn't in the movie, I never would have watched it. Exactly. No. This is the brilliance of Jerry Maguire. Brian, you're not alone. You and I and Heath and all the other guys out there, we were bamboozled. We were tricked into seeing a chick flick because they gave us the thought that there was sports in it and there isn't. They lied to us. But you know what?

The joke's on us because the movie's freaking awesome, and we love the chick flick. I want to see the version of this movie that you have watched where the football scenes are cut out. There's no football scene. What football scene? There's like one football scene. We don't even know who won the game. We don't even know who won. The climax of the movie.

It's not that. The climax of the movie is you had me at hello. That's the climax of the movie. It's not that. The climax of the movie is you had me at hello. That's the climax of the movie. No, the climax of the movie is when he comes to and runs around the football stadium. That probably is the climax. But again, if it were a football movie, it would have been called Rod Tidwell. It is a love story. We don't care about the sports.

We don't care about who wins. It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. A real sports movie has the team and the drama within the team. They're the subject of the movie. It was kind of the fantasy football of sports movies. Why is that? We don't care who wins.

We watch 500 football games a year, and we care who wins like 12 of them. Well, fantasy football is not real sports, and Jerry Maguire is not a real sports movie. It's a great sports movie. It's a great sports movie. It's a great movie with a little bit of sports. Thank you for emailing, Brian. Thank you, everybody. Fantasyfootball at CBSi.com.

We'll come back tomorrow. We've got another one for you. We've got Scott Fish on Thursday. Enjoy your day. See you. It's alright. I've got Le'Veon. It's alright.

Not George Le'Veon. It's alright. I've got Le'Veon It's alright I've got Le'Veon Bell