Fantasy Football Today - 07/03: Fitz vs. Landry vs. Watkins; Heath's Intriguing Rankings (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 3, 2018

Jerick McKinnon will be a polarizing player this season, and we start the show with an email about a McKinnon concern (2:15). Then we're comparing upside and downside for Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry and Sammy Watkins (7:05). Heath and Adam do not agree with the listeners' Twitter votes ... Dissecting Heath's rankings as his optimism for T.Y. Hilton (17:40) and his feelings on Andrew Luck are discussed, he reveals the thinking behind his PPR rankings of the TEN backfield (21:20), gives us a TE sleeper (24:15) and gives projections for Matt Ryan (26:20) ... Putting Kareem Hunt under the microscope (34:00)! Are there any concerns here? Will Spencer Ware eat into his workload? Did Hunt beat up on an easy schedule last year? ... Your emails at [e-mail] and voicemails at 954-689-3199 To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Coming up on today's Fantasy Football Today episode,

is Larry Fitzgerald too old? Is Aaron Jones too big? Is Heath too low on Andrew Luck? Is Heath too low on Andrew Luck? Heath? Probably. Oh, okay. Well, that solves that problem.

And welcome, Heath. How are you? Fantastic. My favorite thing is when you start to show off with something in my rankings that I don't really feel comfortable with. And I definitely don't feel comfortable with the combination of T.Y. Hilton and Andrew Luck and how I have them ranked. And you knew I was going to ask you about that? Well, I read the notes when you send them. I prepare for the show. I do appreciate that.

You think I'm just winging it here? Maybe. We got some good stuff in the notes today. I am Adam Azer. That's Heath Cummings. We also have Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg as part of the regular rotation. If you're a new listener, they are both on vacation. Dave will be back next week. Heath will be gone next week. Jamie will be back pretty soon.

I might be out a week. It'll all be settled by late July. We'll be rocking four times a week at least, then into five times a week. And if you're a new listener, we sincerely welcome you to the show. And for all of you listeners, new and old, hope you have an amazing Fourth of July. I can't wait. Heath, I can't wait.

I just put in my order for food. We're having like ten people over. It's going to be wonderful. Wait. So you're having people over for Fourth of July. Wait. So you're having people over for 4th of July. Yeah. And you're ordering food. Yeah.

Why don't you grill? You know, I'm not allowed to have a grill, first of all. I'd probably get away with it. Do you live in America? I live in a townhouse. Tell your landlord this is America. It's the 4th of July. Also, I'm not sure that you want me grilling your food.

I'm not sure that's a good idea. So we'll just make it easy and get the awesome barbecue from down the street. We've got a Twitter poll about upside and downside. First, let's start with an email. Email of the day, number one. From Dave from a city in Arlington County, Virginia. All right. I don't know.

Arlington. Arlington, Virginia. All right. I don't know. Arlington. Arlington, Virginia. Jarek McKinnon is this year's Toby Gerhardt. Discuss. Vomit. But I like the sentiment. I have Jarek McKinnon ranked as a number two running back. I think I'm maybe one of the lower guys on him,

even though I didn't realize this until Chris Tower started reading off some of the Fantasy Pros rankings to me. I've got him 16th or 17th at running back. It's not just a, like, there's no safety there at all, I guess is the best way to put it. You are talking about a running back that's never had 160 carries in a season. You are talking about a running back that's averaged like 3.6 yards per carry over the last two years combined. Going to a team where Carlos Hyde, I think we can all at least agree who's a better runner, averaged 3.9 last year.

I'm scared. Yeah, I think that Jarek McKinnon will be one of the two most polarizing players in fantasy, at least in the early rounds. I didn't consider T.Y. Hilton. I think he could be pretty polarizing, but that would be completely tied to Andrew Luck. I think that Jarek McKinnon and Derek Henry will be two very polarizing players. Some people are going to love their opportunities love what they're going to do some people are going to completely avoid do you get the same sentiment first of all the same feeling yeah i think you could add laShawn mccoy to that list uh-huh yep because um like listen we know mccoy has more upside than any of these guys we're talking about but the age thing is going to bother people. So yeah, I think those three running backs, and I wouldn't be taking McKinnon in the first two

rounds. I think he's a third round pick, but he's going to sneak into the second round of a lot of drafts. Yeah, I'm looking at MFL 10 ADP from June 1st to July 3rd, and McKinnon's 23rd overall. That's early. I've never seen him go that early. I've never seen him go ahead of Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelsey. Also, Joe Mixon is 24th overall, so that also strikes me as a little early. But it's not that early. It's probably

like five picks earlier than I would have expected for McKinnon. 23rd overall. I think he's early to mid-third round in most of our drafts, 12-team leagues. People love the investment that the Niners made in him. They love the lack of competition. They love the offense.

I don't agree with the lack of competition. You don't? No. I don't think even in a best-case scenario that he is a workhorse back. He's going to share the backfield with Matt Breita oh share the backfield in what way i mean could you see him get it i could see mckinnon getting 240 carries you can't that feels like a ceiling and an optimistic one at that okay well then people need to maybe lower their expectations

a 240 is exactly what carlos hyde got last year without missing a game. Right. I'm assuming 60 games. I didn't know that, by the way. What a random number by me. Toby Gerhardt, in case you're too young to remember, too disgusted by it to remember. In 2013 with Minnesota, he didn't have a lot of work, but he averaged 7.9 yards per carry. In 2011 with Minnesota, he got 109 carries.

He averaged 4.9 yards per carry. He was pretty good in the passing game. He looked like a solid player. So he goes to the Jaguars in 2014. He gets 101 carries, 326 yards, two touchdowns, 20 catches, 3.2 yards per carry. He was terrible. So were the Jaguars. They were 3-13.

They had the lowest scoring offense in 2014 with Toby Gerhardt. They also had the lowest scoring offense in 2013 before adding Gerhardt in the offseason. So obviously McKinnon goes into a much better situation. He should be involved in the passing game, although it's worth noting. Carlos Hyde had, I think, 59 catches last year, and he had 49 of them before Jimmy Garoppolo took over and only 10 with Garoppolo. And that was in five starts from Garoppolo, four or five starts. I think five starts.

So that's interesting. But, yeah, I guess you're the low guy by default on Jarek McKinnon. And I worry that I'm not low enough. But at the same time, I don't disagree with anybody that says he has a ton of upside in this offense. Because if you take out the whole Jimmy Garoppolo, Carlos Hyde thing, it still exists that Kyle Shanahan wants to throw the ball to his running backs a lot. That should be the best part of McKinnon's game. I see a situation where he only has 220 carries, but he easily justifies this draft position.

Okay. So let's go to our Twitter poll. Which of these three wide receivers has the most upside, which has the most downside? And the problem, I made a mistake. I didn't specify the format with the upside poll, and it's a huge deal. Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, and Sammy Watkins. Yet we still had plenty of responses.

People were not thrown off by the lack of format. But which of these three wide receivers has the most upside? Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, or Sammy Watkins? What would you say, Heath? Who has the most upside? I will say Larry Fitzgerald. I completely agree. And you and I are in the minority.

1,900 votes. 16% said Larry Fitzgerald. The guy was number four in PPR last year. He was like number eight in standard. Or non-PPR, rather. He's number nine. Last three years, he's been top 16 every year in non-PPR. Top 11 in PPR.

He's got 100 more catches all three seasons. About 145 targets every year or more. I think he does have the most upside, Larry Fitzgerald. But the people think this shocked me. Sammy Watkins, 52% of the vote. I don't even know what to say. I don't even know what to say. I don't get it. I guess the argument is Patrick Mahomes is the greatest quarterback of all time.

Tyreek Hill is just used as the way he was two years ago, where it's running the ball more, it's more short passes, and Sammy Watkins is the number one receiver on the team. That seems unlikely. and guess what even last year larry fitzgerald in ppr scored more fantasy points than tyree kill so not in non-ppr but in ppr i i was surprised by this uh jarvis Landry got 32% of the upside vote. Let's look at the downside vote. I did specify half PPR of these three wide receivers. Who has the most downside? Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry, or Sammy Watkins? I think it has to be Sammy Watkins. I agree. And that he did get the most votes, 51%. So he got 52% of the upside votes and 51% of the downside votes.

Pretty interesting stuff there. That's how people are viewing Sammy Watkins, boom or bust. Yeah, I think that's true. There's plenty of downside for Larry Fitzgerald at his age. There's plenty of downside for Jarvis Landry because we don't know what his target share is going to be, and he relies so heavily on an enormous number of targets. But Sammy Watkins is going to a new team with a rookie quarterback. I say rookie.

He's played one game. With an inexperienced quarterback and a team that already has an established big three. Like we saw what could happen to Sammy Watkins last year. I might change my answer. I might go Jarvis Landry. I want nothing to do with Jarvis Landry. Like, the best Tyrod Taylor offense, and we should have thought about this yesterday

when we were talking about the Browns running game. The best Tyrod Taylor offense is a pretty conservative offense. It's a lot of running. It's him throwing for like 3,000 yards. I think that is a statement that you cannot make. But his strength is not turning the ball over. He's a very safe quarterback. I don't think that you want Tyrod Taylor chucking the ball around.

We don't know what the best Tyrod Taylor offense is because we've only seen a very safe offense run with Tyrod Taylor. We'll find out. If Todd Haley runs very close to the best safe offense this year, then yes, I'll agree with you. So I don't really know what to think about Jarvis Landry. One thing I do know is that there is a significantly more talented wide receiver than anyone he's played with so far on that team.

There's a first-round draft pick tight end. There are a lot of mouths to feed, and there's Duke Johnson coming out of the backfield. So I just don't know how Jarvis Landry gets 100 catches. One thing I know is that Jarvis Landry and Sammy Watkins should not be spoke of in the same breath as Larry Fitzgerald. In non-PPR, that's debatable. In PPR, that's not debatable. Yes, he's a six-touchdown guy, Larry Fitzgerald. What's Jarvis Landry?

Similar to Larry Fitzgerald. And what, 10 years younger? Has he been in non-PPR over the past three years? Yeah. Yeah, he has been. I think he's usually a top 20 guy when it's all said and done because he hasn't missed a game, you know? I'll tell you where he was.

Jarvis Landry was actually – he had the same amount of fantasy points as Larry Fitzgerald last year in non-PPR. Oh, no, no, in PPR. In PPR, I'm sorry. So he couldn't have been that different in non-PPR. Oh, no, no, in PPR. In PPR, I'm sorry. So it couldn't have been that different in non-PPR, right? He got 112 passes last year. I don't know.

Well, yeah, so they were both like 107 or more catches. So they had very similar seasons. More yards for Fitzgerald, more touchdowns. 2016, Jarvis Landry was like the 15th best wide receiver in non-PPR. So, yeah, I think it's – actually, if you look at what they've done, they've finished pretty similarly over the last few seasons, Fitzgerald and Landry. But you've got to project more catches for Fitzgerald this year than Landry. There's really not much competition in Arizona.

They drafted Christian Kirk in the second round. They have Bryce Butler. They have Chad Williams. They have J.J. Nelson, who, by the way, here's an interesting stat that probably doesn't matter. In three seasons, J.J. Nelson has gotten six or more targets in 11 games. In those 11 games, he has averaged 11.3 fantasy points in non-PPR, and he has 45 catches in those 11 games. Give the man six or more targets, and he gives you a good game almost every single time, but he probably won't get those targets.

Just thought I'd throw that out there, Heath. I appreciate it. I hope J.J. Nelson is not even one of their top three receivers. Yeah, I don't think they're going to have a very good passing game or I'd be more interested in like Chad Williams. I think Chad Williams, I think Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, Ricky Seals-Jones.

They've got weapons. We just need to see Joshosh rosen be good and christian kirk is a slot receiver so i don't they're going to they're talking like they're going to play him outside in year one all right see how that works out second round pick you know he and pettis both second round picks for the niners and the cardinals we barely ever talk about them. They have not – San Francisco has not sounded as excited about Pettis' contributions in year one as Arizona has with Kirk. Okay. I don't see – like I don't think Pettis is taking Marquise Goodwin's job. I don't think he's taking – unless Pierre Garçon is just not himself anymore. And I think they like Trent Taylor more than they like Pettis right now.

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Sign up for a league at cbssports.com slash FFT. Need help remembering any of the promo codes? Feel free to tweet us. I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R. He is at Heath Cummings Sr Alright so you heard email of the day number one It was from Dave It was about Jarek McKinnon

And Toby Gerhardt Email of the day number two is from Josh From the PN Dub I don't know what that means The PN Dub Yeah no idea Dear Emma Simon Anthony and Leitchie? It's like kids show.

Wiggles. It's the Wiggles. You don't know the Wiggles, Heath? I'm sure I have been subjected to that. You're going to like this email. When listening to the Heath is Right episode last week, I found myself singing, The Heath is on! To the tune of found myself singing, The Heath is on!

To the tune of Glenn Frey's The Heat is On. Just thought you might want to use that sound drop when Heath says something right. I think people would get really tired of hearing that song. You think so? I mean, if you're playing it like every five or six minutes, it's going to get old. Yeah, I don't know how I feel about it. I mean, it's an interesting idea. Do we say The Heath is on when he says something right?

Do we even like the music? There's a lot to think about. Yeah! Fantastic. I love it. You have to maybe time it a little better. No, I was doing that on purpose. I was building up.

I think it's great. It's it. It's beautiful. And you know what, Heath? I even try. I was building up. I think it's great. It's it. It's beautiful. And you know what, Heath? I even, I even try, I'm trying to make this work. I got a little surprise for you a little bit later. So, well, I think, I think that's a winner, Josh. I think that's a winner.

Injuries, news and notes. There's only one thing. Aaron Jones, Packers running back. He has bulked up to help himself in pass protection and with durability. Do you like that Aaron Jones is bulking up, Heath? As a rule, I do not like hearing that a running back has bulked up. So I will say no. Yeah, it's not such a good thing.

And is the heat is on still playing in the background? No, we're good. Oh, you know who's coming on the show later? Today? Yeah. I do not. Excellent. today yeah i do not excellent the fantasy regulators are coming on this show later who are the fantasy regulators if you missed it on yesterday's podcast if you have a league dispute send an email to fantasy football at cbsi.com fantasy football at cbsi.com. Please put Fantasy Football Regulators in the subject line.

And we'll regulate. So we got a couple of regulator emails coming up for you a little bit later. Again, FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. You have to put Fantasy Football Regulators in the subject line. So if he's so right all the time, let's take a look at some of his curious rankings. T.Y. Hilton is your number eight wide receiver in both non-PPR and PPR. That is correct. Yeah, you have T.Y. Hilton ahead of Devontae Adams, Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill.

But you have Andrew Luck as the number 11 quarterback in fantasy. What are we thinking here? Yeah, that makes me uncomfortable when you put it like that. Luck, if I were to rank him with no concern whatsoever, would be a top five quarterback without a question. And so obviously I'm still baking some concern in there. And I think what it comes down to, because I start all of my rankings with numbers, and then I make adjustments based on those numbers, I'm feeling better about Luck's prospects.

Yeah. And so I am using more of my true expectation for T.Y. Hilton. If Andrew Luck plays 16 games, I'm probably still too low on him but at quarterback when there's 23 of them i'm just i'm not gonna reach for andrew luck anywhere before the probably the ninth or tenth round because why would i with even a little bit of risk well yeah what's the um upside for andrew luck do you still think he could be the number one quarterback in fantasy like he had been once upon a time i never was as high on andrew luck as you were yeah i remember you telling me for a couple of years that he could be the number one quarterback in fantasy. I would never rank him ahead of Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. I don't think he has as much upside, if we're just talking about upside,

as Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. But I think he's definitely got top five upside. Yeah, in terms of just upside, I know this is going to sound weird. If I had to rank the upside of three quarterbacks you just said, I would go Deshaun Watson, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson. And Wilson was the number one quarterback last year. Andrew Luck was the number one quarterback in fantasy in 2014. In that year, T.Y. Hilton, this must have been a really good wide receiver year.

T.Y. Hilton was like number 12 in 2014 in non-PPR and, yeah, right around there in PPR. 2016, however, he was a top six wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton. Yeah, he's very good. But he only caught seven touchdowns in 2014 despite Andrew Luck throwing 40 of them. So that was a little bit strange. You'd expect double digits. If Andrew Luck's going to throw 40 touchdowns, I think T.Y. Hilton's going to have more than seven.

Yes. All right, so it's really the context of within the position, the depth of the quarterback position. Andrew Luck's 11th. T.Y. Hilton is your number eight wide receiver. I think the problem I have, Heath, is if Andrew Luck gets hurt, T.Y. Hilton's the number four receiver. T.Y. Hilton's droppable, in my opinion. I think the problem I have, Heath, is if Andrew Luck gets hurt, T.Y. Hilton's a number four receiver.

T.Y. Hilton's droppable, in my opinion. I disagree with that completely. He had 966 yards and four touchdowns last year in 16 games. That's a droppable player to me. I don't believe that he will be that bad again if Andrew Luck's hurt. I don't think he'll be a number one receiver. I mean, number eight will look foolish, but he's still a guy that has too much upside.

I'm probably going to start him as a flex most weeks. Oh, goodness. Maybe. Jacoby Brissett would have to take a step up from what we saw last year. Heath's rankings, going a little bit further. Deion Lewis. Deion Lewis is number 19 in PPR at running back derrick henry is number 20 you have deon lewis ahead of derrick henry by just one spot in ppr yeah and maybe the best way to approach that is just looking at the numbers that i'm coming up

with to get there i do expect henry is going to lead the team in carries, rushing yards, and touchdowns. I've got Lewis, though, catching 27 more passes than Derrick Henry for an extra 150 yards. And there is a bigger difference there, those 2742 points. I don't have that big a difference between their rushing production. I've got Henry right around 900 yards rushing and eight touchdowns. I've got Lewis around 700 yards rushing and five touchdowns. Are you the low guy on Derek Henry?

Because I thought you had him as a breakout. Didn't you have him as a sleeper or a breakout? I did, and I think he has breakout potential for sure. I still got him at 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Total yards? Yeah, that would be a breakout for him. It's not that good, though. Well, no, it's pretty good.

So what is your Deion Lewis projection? I've got him pretty close to 1,000 total yards. I think he gets 400 to 500 in the air. Well, I guess, okay, the reason I brought this up i i think dave and jamie both have derrick henry ahead of lewis in ppr so i was trying to find some different opinions right i this is more of a and i i can look i don't know where they have derrick henry in ppr but i think this is more of a me having dion lewis higher than them in ppr than me having derrick henry lower than them in PPR.

Yeah. Yeah, Lewis, I don't know. I don't think they love Lewis because of the durability issues. And I think that – like there are people in the industry that are projecting that Deion Lewis is more or less going to go into the DeMarco Murray role, and Derrick Henry is going to remain maybe with a slightly inflated version of what he's been. The DeMarco Murray roll? What? Yes. There are certainly people that think Deion Lewis is just a better running back than Derrick

Henry is. And there's some – that's not an impossible argument to make. But the durability is enough to keep me from thinking that's the plan. I guess the DeMarco Murray roll is averaging probably somewhere around 12 carries a game. I hope that doesn't happen, man. That would be awful for fantasy. That would be awful. It would be good for Deion Lewis, but it wouldn't be great.

But it would be bad for Derrick Henry because I want 17 carries or more a game for Derrick Henry. I want him to go crazy. I want him to be a workhorse. Yeah, I don't. That's not what I'm expecting at this point. I think he can still break out without that happening,

but I don't think there's a very good chance that he's a true workhorse unless Deion Lewis gets hurt. Steven Anderson is a Texans tight end, and he is your 15th ranked tight end. I do not see him in Dave and Jamie's tight end list. No, this is a total. He will be in my deep sleepers column. He'll be in my tight end. And I do not see him in Dave and Jamie's tight end list. No, this is a total.

He will be in my deep sleepers column. He'll be in my tight end sleepers column. He's going to be written about a lot. And it's a little bit of a dart throw, but Steven Anderson is one of the most athletic players, pass catchers they have outside of DeAndre Hopkins. He is more of a slot receiver in that Zach Ertz, Travis Kelsey-like mold

where they don't really line up at tight end that often. I don't expect he's going to be listed at the top of their tight end depth chart because they need somebody that blocks a little better than he does. But I do think that there's a chance that he gets a decent number of targets from that role, like he did last year, and has success. Last year, Steven Anderson, who's now going into his third season,

played 15 games, had 25 catches on 55 targets for 342 yards, and a touchdown. I mean, there's not much to go off based on stats. It's more of an opportunity and what you like about him. Do you like him better than, say, Ricky Seals Jones? As of right now, I do. I'm getting a little worried about the – like, I like Ricky Seals Jones quite a bit. I'm getting a little worried about the way Arizona is talking about him. What are they saying?

They kind of – it sounded like they don't think he can block. I'm not sure that he can. I'm not sure that he can. I'm not sure Steven Anderson can either. And nobody likes O.J. Howard except for me. You have O.J. Howard 22nd, which is basically great. This was – I actually lowered both he and Brait just a little bit. Oh, with Winston's suspension? With the Winston issue.

They may have moved more than anyone else did. That's actually a good point. Okay, finally, surprised by this one, is this guy helped you destroy in 2016 Matt Ryan.

A lot of good reasons to like Matt Ryan. He was unlucky last year. You have him 21st. You have Andy Dalton one spot ahead of Matt Ryan. You have Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff all ahead of Matt Ryan, 21st. What I talked about a lot in 2016 was regression in terms of the touchdown numbers. And I do think maybe he has a little bit of that to come again this year. I mean, certainly 3.8% is way too low. But you look at his last five years now, and that 2016 season, first off, let's be clear,

he did help me a lot in 2016, but not because I was right. I didn't predict he was going to have a 7.1% touchdown rate because I don't predict that for anyone. It just so happened that I thought he was one of the best values at the end of the draft, and then he turned out to be awesome on top of that. But you look at his touchdown rate, 3.8% last year, which is awful, except it was worse in 2015, 3.4%. 2013, it was 4.0%. 2014, 4.5%. Okay, that's not not bad i've got him throwing 25 touchdown passes this year

but i don't know that the volume is going to be there in terms of the number of pass attempts he's not going to give you anything on the ground in terms of rush attempts or rush touchdowns and i you shouldn't expect him to put up a big number in terms of touchdowns. I think what concerns me is what we talked about yesterday when we put Julio Jones under the microscope. It's the lack of pass attempts from Matt Ryan. But the last two years, he hasn't been throwing the ball all that much. However, this will be his second year in a system, so hopefully that helps. And can he get back to 4,500 yards? Because he had 4,900 yards, nearly 5,000 yards in 2016 when he threw 38 touchdowns. Before that, though, four straight years with 4,500 yards or more,

up to 4,719 in 2012. Lowest in the four-year stretch was 4,515 yards. If he gets to 4,500 yards, he wasn't even close last year. He was at 4,100. That's probably going to be top six or seven. You should not expect him to get to 4,500 yards because during that stretch where he was doing it every year, he had 615 pass attempts,1 628 614 the one year with 534 in 2016 he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt that's a full yard and a half more than he's ever averaged in his career and more than we should expect anyone to average it's pretty amazing that in sports things can just come

together for somebody in a year, in a season. It's amazing. Well, and it's much easier in the NFL because it's just 16 games. It's a tiny, tiny sample size. Yeah. But he has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt over his career. I've got him slated for 7.6. If he throws 540 passes, that's about 4,100 yards, which is where he was last year.

He throws five more touchdowns, sure. That's not enough to get yards, which is where he was last year. He throws five more touchdowns, sure. That's not enough to get you into the top 16 quarterbacks for sure. I would put him ahead of Andy Dalton because who wants Dalton? And I would put him ahead of Derek Carr because I think Carr doesn't have much upside. And I love the fact that they added Calvin Ridley. I really like Calvin Ridley quite a bit. I think it's going to make their offense a lot more explosive. Like I said, second year under the offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkeesian.

I could see improvement. Look, you got him 21st. I'm saying I'm just giving you two guys, 19 and 20, in your rankings that I'd take. I'd take him over Alex Smith, but probably not Mariota. And I'd take him over Winston just because I'm not drafting Winston. So I guess if I were doing rankings, I would have Matt Ryan like 17th. Yeah, I would much rather – like if you're taking him as your 17th quarterback, then you're taking him as your backup quarterback.

Sure. I would much rather have Jameis Winston sitting on my bench for four weeks than Matt Ryan sitting on my bench for four weeks. I think it's more like seven weeks for Winston. That's not... What? Because he has a bye. So that's five games you're not playing.

Matt Ryan also has a bye. Okay, but it's five games you're not playing. Andy Dalton has a bye, too. Okay, but Winston... Like, you can't use Winston for the first four games. And then he has Chicago, which you probably... I think it's five games you're not playing. Andy Dalton has a bye too. Okay, but you can't use Winston for the first four games. And then he has Chicago, which I think it's Chicago. You might want to play him there. Are you going to trust him in his first game back?

And then he has a bye. And then he has Atlanta, and I've said this a few times. Atlanta I really think has a chance to have a great defense this year. So I think there's a chance you don't play him until the Cleveland game in week seven. If Atlanta has a great defense, then you've already dropped Matt Ryan because they're not going to throw him. Why? I don't – no, I don't buy this. We say this on the podcast.

I don't buy it. I don't think – Why do you think Matt Ryan's thrown so many fewer passes the last two years? Let's look. They haven't had a great defense. They've been playing 10 games and 11 games the last two years, and he's thrown 529 and 534 passes. Yeah, go ahead. They had three straight years where they didn't win more than eight games, and he's thrown 529 and 534 passes. Yeah, go ahead. They had three straight years where they didn't win more than eight games,

and he averaged 630 passes. A bad defense could lead to more pass attempts. Correct. But having a good defense doesn't mean you're not going to throw the ball. And it certainly doesn't mean that you can't be a good quarterback because some of the best quarterbacks in fantasy are on some of the best teams with some of the best defenses. Some, yes.

You have to – I don't think you can be an average efficiency quarterback that does not run the ball and be a really good fantasy quarterback on a team that doesn't throw the ball as much. All right. So Matt Ryan, 21. Defense is better. Could be bad for him. I will concede that. I would say that the heath is on. All right.

I got an email to read for you here. We got a lot of emails to read, but here's one from Luke. And this is a baseball email, so bear with me here, but it's relevant. Luke says, buy or sell. Buy or sell. The last two games I've purchased via SeatGeek have been James Shields home starts. In those two games, he's 2-0, he's gone 14 innings and

given up one run. Buy or sell that I should add Shields and buy tickets via SeatGeek for every James Shields home start. Buy. Yeah, I buy it. I buy it. You should buy all your tickets on SeatGeek. SeatGeek is an amazing app for tickets. If it's concerts, if it's comedy, if it's theater, or obviously if it's sports, SeatGeek should be your go-to app for every type of ticket.

And every purchase that you make on SeatGeek is guaranteed. So you can shop for SeatGeek. You can shop for tickets on SeatGeek with confidence. And I use SeatGeek is guaranteed. So you can shop for tickets on SeatGeek with confidence. And I use SeatGeek all the time. I'm not going to say that every single ticket I buy is on SeatGeek, but it is the first place I look. You know, sometimes people invite me to games. I go to a game. I don't use SeatGeek.

But other than that, if I'm going to a game and I'm buying tickets, I am using SeatGeek. I've done it for college basketball, for football. I did it for a Giants game two years ago. I did it for a college basketball game a few months ago. I did it for Yankees tickets earlier this season. And if you use the code FFT on the SeatGeek app, you will get $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase. FFT is the promo code. So download the SeatGeek app or you can go to SeatGeek.com. Search for tickets. They make it really easy to find the best deals. And use the promo code FFT to get $20 off your first purchase.

One more time, people. That promo code is FFT. Let's put a first-round pick under the microscope. We have done Zeke, Gurley, Gordon, Barkley, Hopkins, Brown, Beckham, Julio Jones, and Michael Thomas. Today, let's put Kareem Hunt under the microscope. He was the number three running back in non-PPR, number four in PPR as a rookie. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and had, oh, 325 total touches, I believe. About 1,900 total yards and 11 total touchdowns in 16 games.

One thing about the 16 games, he 11 total touchdowns in 16 games. One thing about the 16 games, he only had one carry in Week 17. It was a 35-yard touchdown run at Denver. Now, what do you think about Kareem Hunt? Do you think there's any fear? He seems pretty safe. What do you think about Kareem Hunt? I think you could definitely make the argument that he's going to regress a little bit from the 4.9 yards per attempt and maybe even from his 8.6 yards per

reception but the offense seems pretty safe like the maybe the argument would be and this is one that we just kind of had about matt ryan but the chief's defense is just complete garbage but even if that's the case i think he's's just going to get more pass catches. So, no, he feels pretty safe as a first-round pick. There's plenty of reason to argue about six different running backs in that range, but he feels pretty safe. Do you like him better than Melvin Gordon? That's one I keep going back and forth on.

Yeah, I think I do. Okay. So I guess if there is a concern, here's an email that I want to read about Kareem Hunt. It's from Andy in New York. Isn't Spencer Ware's return going to lessen Kareem Hunt's usage? That just seems like something Andy Reid would do. If there is a split, what percentage would make sense in the Chiefs' backfield? Well, Kareem Hunt's not going to get 100% of the carries.

I would guess that he gets somewhere around 65% of the team's total rush attempts. The thing that will be interesting is, do they run as many designed runs with Patrick Mahomes as they did with Alex Smith? Because that kind of cut into it a little bit as well. But I've got him at 65% of the team's carries right now. And as far as Spencer Ware goes, I really don't know. I was talking to Chris Towers about this today and how I'm very uncomfortable with the Spencer Ware situation because it seems that everyone has just assumed that he is back. He is 100%. He is the Chiefs' number two running back.

He did some individual work at OTAs. All of the quotes that I see, and the Chiefs just had an article on their website about their crowded competition for the number two running back. And even in that, when they mentioned Spencer Ware first, the quotes seemed to be he's got to get back to where he was. He's got to get himself to 100%. So Spencer Ware is not fully healthy yet, and I don't know that he'll be as good as he was before that injury.

No other running back had more than 18 carries for the Chiefs last year. If you look at Andy Reid's history for the Chiefs last year. If you look at Andy Reid's history with the Chiefs, start in 2013, Jamal Charles had 259 carries in 15 games. 2014, more concerning, Charles had 206 carries in 15 games. Niall Davis had 134 carries. That's a big split right there. 2015, Sharkandrick West had 160 carries And Spencer Ware had 72 carries in 11 games And Charles had 71 carries in 5 games 2016, Spencer Ware had 214 carries in 15 games That's nice, we like that

Sharkandrick West had 88 carries And then last year, Kareem Hunt got almost all of them It's a bit of a mixed history, I guess When you look at Andy Reid and his 5 seasons, I believe, in Kansas City. Unless I'm missing a season. Yeah, I don't know. I guess it's a decent point and something to be concerned about because we are nitpicking. We are putting these guys under a microscope.

I'm going to put one other aspect of Kareem Hunt's rookie season under a microscope. He had a pretty favorable schedule. Only faced four teams that finished top ten in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. As in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. He faced the Eagles, the Broncos twice, and the Cowboys. Had a great game against the Eagles in Week 2. Struggled against the Broncos, struggled against the Cowboys. At least the fantasy point totals weren't good.

And then he had one carry for 35 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 at the Broncos, struggled against the Cowboys. At least the fantasy point totals weren't good. And then he had one carry for 35 yards and a touchdown in Week 17 at the Broncos. Looks like the schedule could be tougher this year. Is that at all on your mind with Kareem Hunt? I get really uneasy about projecting too much of what a schedule is going to look like going into the year. I think you can really, looking at early in the season and trying to guess who's going to get off to a good start, maybe can have some value. But so much changes in terms of talent, personnel over the offseason,

and then so much changes in season in terms of injuries. I don't know what defenses are going to look like in week 12 or week 13 of the season. A good example, I think think is the chargers yeah they look like a defense that could just be outstanding and they were pretty good against the past last year but they were an easy matchup for running backs they were last year if they'd done anything that really would change like they've done stuff to even further improve their pass defense. I don't know that their run defense is much better than it was last year. Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't know what to think about Denver at all in terms of defense.

They have the name, and they've got the history, but they're old. I think they should have a good run defense. I'm not quite sure about their pass defense. But for them, it was Dometa Pecco was really the difference. When he missed games, like you look at the Dolphins game for Denver, they went to Miami, and Kenyon Drake had a huge game. But as long as he's there, he should be a pretty big part of that defensive line and should really help them plug the run.

And then, yeah, for the Chargers, just going to take a look at the depth chart here if I can, but I I can't so forget it Heath good point I would say The Heath is on The Heath is on I see I just cut that Yeah I like the way

That we just play the music part And then you get to sing That's what's important That's what everybody really wants from this show You're right again Alright Kareem Hunt you're under the microscope and then you get to sing because that's what's important. That's what everybody really wants from this show. You're right again. All right, Kareem Hunt, you're under the microscope. You're out of the microscope, and I would say that, you know,

really if there's something that derails Kareem Hunt, it might be Patrick Mahomes. If he has a terrible year and they stink, that's going to be a problem, but we have faith in him. We have faith in Andy Reid. We have faith in ourselves to become fantasy regulators. Let's do this. Fantasyfootball at CBSi.com. Hey, Warren G. and Nate Dogg, I am in a 14-team auction league that's been in existence for 10 years.

We've been throwing around the idea of doing destination drafts every three years or so. This year, we're going to vote on where to have our destination draft next year. I want to do it big and go to Vegas or get a sweet beach house. Other guys are suggesting we just go to a city a few hours away like Indianapolis or Cincinnati because they're worried we won't be able to get everyone in the league to take a big trip. What do you guys think? Go big and say sorry to the guys that can't make it. Maybe they could Skype in.

It's an auction, remember. Or stay closer to home and not have as much fun. I guess the first thing I would do is, and I think this is a thing that's happened with one of my leagues before. We've talked about this and talked about it, and then there's about half the league that really wants to do it or will do it. So I would find out if you could get everyone in your league to go even somewhere a couple hours away, that would be ideal.

What I think you'll find is you're not going to get 100% participation no matter where you go, so you might as well go do the fun thing. Yeah, it's okay to do it on Skype. It's awful. For an auction, it's terrible. So is it worth screwing up your auction to go to a good location? I mean, it would only be awful for the guy that was not there.

But there's going to be like six guys not there. Well, it sucks for them i i i need it i need an official answer let's say that there i've given it i gave my official answer you find out if everyone will agree or 12 of 14 will agree to go to one place that is close that is what you should do all right but if this is going to be a situation where it's only eight or nine guys anyway, shoot the moon. Okay. I consider this one regulated. Next up, we got Damond Duchon. Hey, Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. This will be my fourth year playing in my office fantasy football league, and I've experienced a ton of shade because I've utilized the waiver wire to the fullest, and I've made the playoffs each year and played for the championship once. But last year, they started the draft without me. It was scheduled

for 7 p.m., but it started at 6, and I experienced my first losing season. And I feel as if they were laughing at me the entire time. So do you think that I should be compensated with a top draft pick or have my fees waived for this year? This is shady stuff, Heath They started the draft without him because he's too good Yeah, I would have quit the league right then Or made them restart the draft Now that it's passed and you've played the full season

I mean, it would have been great, obviously If you would have won anyway under those circumstances And then you could just have bragging rights forever. You didn't. You're not getting any type of compensation for something that happened over a year ago. Go kick their ass and make up for it this year. All right. Thank you very much for the email, Demond.

And Demond Duchamp, by the way, is that like an artist? I think it is. He's a musician. So I don't know if this person was really Demond Duchamp. I would assume it was. Well, that's cool. Well, welcome to the show, in that case.

Our email address is fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Demond, your concern has been regulated. Now let's read some normal emails. Matt from The W. Dear Earl, Fran, Robbie, regulated now let's read some normal emails matt from the w dear earl fran robbie and baby i don't know dinosaurs they're from dinosaurs that's right oh he hates that show arguably the worst show in the history of network television uh you think so yes i don't know he's right it's a terrible show uh need draft help have ppr who should i draft leonard fournette or dalvin cook dalvin cook

all right next email is from dave from worcester aka. Worchester. I have a draft strategy I want to run by you. The subject line of this email, by the way, Heath, is the grace strategy. The grace strategy. Every year, a player in my league named Grace always employs the same strategy, which can essentially be summed up as no depth. She gets her starters first no matter what, ignoring her bench until her active roster is complete. Yes, this includes defense and kickers, which she drafts in the middle rounds. It sounds ridiculous.

It is ridiculous. But here's the thing. Grace is completely dominant. In eight years, she has won the league four times. She's come in second twice and has never missed the playoffs. We even tried fantasy baseball one year, and Grace won that too. I know what the instant response to this is, and no, the rest of us don't simply suck at fantasy, except for Ian.

He sucks. A bunch of us even listen to the CBS Fantasy Football Today podcast, so you know we're great at fantasy and smart and handsome. Even if we were all awful, this performance is such a statistical anomaly, I feel like there has to be something to it. What do you think is the grace strategy, drafting all your starters, including kickers and defense, before your bench, a good strategy. I do not believe it is a good strategy. I will say, if you're in a league where you're just going to outwork everyone on the waiver wire, then this is – I don't – like, I think this can happen. Also, like, anomalies happen in fantasy all the time. Also, it sounds like Grace is just awesome. It does sound that way. The thing is, and I don't think anybody should be good enough to do this four times in eight years,

but if you draft the number one quarterback, the number one defense, and the number one kicker, depending on some scoring systems, that puts you at an enormous advantage. Throw in a little bit of good injury luck and excellent maneuvering on the waiver wire it can work yeah that's a good point but no i i like i i don't really even like drafting both my quarterback and my tight end before i have a backup running back so this is just a bridge way too far for me gary from Atlanta, originally from Massachusetts. Go Pats. Hey, Sam, Bam, Big Say, and Tom Terrific. That's got to be wrestling, right?

Tom Terrific? Oh, no, wait. Tom Terrific is Tom Brady. Or no? I have no idea, bro. Yeah, I'm just going to let you keep guessing. I have no idea, bro. Yeah, I'm just going to let you keep guessing. I have no idea. It works.

Okay, it might be Captain Kangaroo. Two-keeper league with standard scoring. Does anybody call Tom Brady? Tom, terrific. Keepers move up two rounds each year, so first and second rounds can't be kept. Pick two of the following possible keepers. McKinnon in the eighth round. Marvin Jones in the ninth.

Devontae Adams in the fifth. Marlon Mack in the fourteenth. Devontae Adams and Jarek McKinnon. From No Name. Hey, Rocky, Colton, Tum Tum. That's three ninjas. Something that people only my age know and like. No, definitely. My oldest son watched that.

The original? I watched it with him. There was a movie, right? Yeah, I think there were like three. There's at least two. Yeah, I think we actually had that on VHS. Oh, okay. Yeah, me too.

So a few questions. One, because I won the consolation bracket last year in our half PPR draft, I get the second choice to choose my draft spot. What's the best pick in half PPR? We talked about this yesterday, and I think it's right in that 5-6 range is what I'd be aiming for. And two, Adam, why so down on the Jaguars' offense?

Bortles was poor to average last year. Running backs and wide receivers really the same given injuries last year. Tight end and line are better. Adam, you're a hater. You're a hater. backs and wide receivers really the same given injuries last year. Tight end and line are better. That's the thing. Adam, you're a hater. You're a hater. Bortles wasn't. Bortles, his final numbers were better than what they should have been.

In fact, in fantasy, I think he was top 15. So I don't know. I love the Norwell signing. I love it. But I don't think they I love the Norwell signing. I love it, but I don't think they have enough explosiveness on offense. I wish they had a legit number one wide receiver. I do like Austin's Ferry Jenkins. I mean, that's fine.

It's not going to hurt, but it just feels like they overachieved to me last year, and I think Bortles could be so bad. He could be bench-worthy. He could be benchable for them. So that's just a risk. And I guess it's a bit of a bold call. But I don't – the NFL has so much turnover with playoff teams.

I know this team has an amazing defense and a young defense that should only be getting better. I don't see them making the playoffs, and I think their offense is going to be the reason why. What do you think, Heath? No, this was all directed to you. Third, Die Hard is a Christmas movie. Jerry Maguire is a football movie. Shout out to Duval. I don't know what that means.

Duval County, right? I guess. Why would he be shouting out to Duval? Maybe it's Adam Duval. No, I don't think it's Adam Duval. Pretty sure Jacksonville is in Duvall. No, I don't think it's Adam Duvall. Pretty sure Jacksonville is in Duvall County. Oh, then that does make sense. Shout out to Duvall.

I totally get it. Right. Thank you for your emails. We just have a couple voicemails, then we're going to let you all go and enjoy your 4th of July. Here is an email about, or a voicemail rather, about Saints running backs. If you want about, or a voicemail rather, about Saints running backs.

If you want to leave us a voicemail, please call 954-689-3199. 954-689-3199. Funny story, Heath. I called someone yesterday in my city's public or recreations department. I asked them a question about July 4th because we do fireworks pretty damn awesome over here. And I was leaving a voicemail for them. And I said, hey, this is Adam Azer. I live here, blah, blah, blah. I have a question about Wednesday. Please call me back at 954-689-31. And then I stopped myself.

I realized I was giving the FFT voicemail number. I'm trying to remember the last time I left a voicemail for someone. Oh, I've done it. I've done it a lot lately. How many un-listened-to voicemails do you have on your phone right now? Zero. I listen to all my voicemails. I have many.

That is actually – I have one. My friend left me a message a half hour ago. How about that? Should we see what he said? I also have 138,000 unread emails. Oh, my God. That's annoying. Okay, here's the voicemail.

954-689-3199. Check your emails, bro. Hey, Raph, Leo, Donnie, and Mikey. This is Eric from Illinois. As a longtime Saints fan, I just wanted to touch base with you on the Kymera-Ingram debate. I think you guys are a little off on the Mark Ingram. He's going to be a huge part of this offense moving forward when he gets back. Being the last year of his contract and the way Sean Payton runs his offense,

he's not going to let him sit there and get eight touches a game. I think he's going to be a huge steal. Thanks, guys. Love your show. Yeah, interesting. I don't know exactly where you stand on Ingram after the four-game suspension. I think that was one of the most factual voicemails we've received in the history of this program.

I've drafted Mark Ingram in the fifth round of multiple drafts, and I will continue to do so. And I just love the idea, if you start out with two running backs and two wide receivers, of having Mark Ingram as your third running back and possibly having a combination like Le'Veon Bell, LaShawn McCoy, and Mark Ingram. Who's a better player to draft at the same spot in PPR, Edelman or Ingram? Ingram, for sure. Because even if you were 100% right about Julian Edelman,

you're getting a number two PPR wide receiver for the second three quarters of the season. Mark Ingram has shown us top five upside. Not exactly. Not exactly with Edelman. You're getting the floor of number 17 wide receiver. And the ceiling of number 13. No, no, no. Yes.

I mean, look, Larry Fitzgerald was number four last year. And you know what? Julian Edelman has a bye, too. Larry Fitzgerald, well, of course, he's a four-game suspension. Larry Fitzgerald was number four last year. So. He's not Larry Fitzgerald. How is he not Larry Fitzgerald?

Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top three wide receivers in the history of the NFL. He's 15 fewer catches. The yards and the touchdowns would probably be pretty similar. He's going to average less yards. Is he? Yes. Okay. I mean, you would know better than I would.

But it's not like Larry Fitzgerald is burning it up on yards per catch. You should just do a Twitter poll. Is Julian Ed it's not like Larry Fitzgerald is burning it up on Yards for Cash. You should just do a Twitter poll. Is Julian Edelman better than Larry Fitzgerald? If Larry Fitzgerald played on the New England Patriots, this wouldn't be a debate. If Julian Edelman had played the last three years in the Arizona Cardinals, he wouldn't have to worry about the injury because he'd be retired. Okay, Larry Fitzgerald is a better football player than Julian Edelman. Who's a better fantasy player?

Larry Fitzgerald, obviously. Why is than Julian Edelman. Who's a better fantasy player? Larry Fitzgerald, obviously. Why is that obvious? Because he outscores him. He scores more fantasy points. But he's 35. He's 35. And Edelman's 32 coming off an ACL. They're basically the same age.

They are not the same age. One of them is Tom Brady throwing to him. I would bet that they don't score that many. Also, Brandon Cooks is gone. They didn't replace Brandon Cooks or Danny Amendola. He's got a great situation. How about this? I've got to get a haircut.

Last one. Last voicemail. Let's hear from Alan. Where's that voicemail? That's not working. Wonderful. This is what Alan said. Alan said, thank you for coming to Philadelphia for a live event last year. He wants to know if we're going to be doing another live event podcast.

I think it's a very good possibility. So be on the lookout for that. How fun was that? That was one of the most fun things we've ever done. It was a ton, ton of fun. And I enjoyed meeting all the people there. And I hope we get to do something like that again, maybe in multiple places. I think we will. And Alan said that that's the reason the Eagles won the Super Bowl.

I could not agree more. Keith, go get a haircut. Trim that beard. We'll talk to you on Thursday. Happy 4th, buddy. See you, buddy. Everybody have a wonderful 4th of July. And we will talk to you on Thursday.

It's got this.