Fantasy Football Today - 07/03: Projections Weeks! AFC South and NFC South (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: July 3, 2019

Adam thinks Heath and Ben are crazy with their Drew Brees projections! What else stands out as we look at these two divisions? ... HOU (2:42), IND (11:48), JAC (20:15), TEN (26:15). What's the upside for Corey Davis? Can Leonard Fournette lead the NFL in rush attempts? Why don't the guys project RBs for double digit rushing TDs? ... ATL (38:10), CAR (45:30), NO (51:45), TB (1:01:40). Pass attempts could be an issue for Matt Ryan and Brees. Carries certainly won't be an issue for Christian McCaffrey. Why shouldn't Alvin Kamara be the first player drafted? And is O.J. Howard a superstar? ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Today we project the AFC South and the NFC South.

How about this? Will Fuller and Kiki Cutie played four games together. In those four games, neither wide receiver had even 200 yards, and they combined for just two touchdowns. Meanwhile, over in the NFC South, Drew Brees averaged just 32.6 pass attempts per game. That ranked

21st among quarterbacks with a minimum of 200 attempts, and Christian McCaffrey got almost every running back carry for the Panthers last year. No other running back on the team had more than 24 carries. All of this will factor into the projections. I'm Adam Azer here on July 3rd. Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch are here as well.

It's their projections, so we'll talk to them. Guys, a surprise question to start the show. Of the eight teams that we're going to talk about today, AFC and NFC South, which was the toughest team to start the show. Of the eight teams that we're going to talk about today, AFC and NFC South, which was the toughest team to project Ben? Yeah, surprise. Didn't like it. Maybe Tennessee,

honestly. I mean, they were so low volume last year. They have a couple new receivers. I'm not sure I'm buying Derrick Henry as this feature back that everyone wants him to be. He's never really shown much in the passing game. Maybe Tennessee. I will say Jacksonville

just because they were such an abysmal offense last year, but they have reason for optimism. I will say that Drew Brees is not going to finish this QB 15, even though you both projected him that way. It's just not going to happen.

You love these old quarterbacks. No, I love Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I love one of the best ever. You think he's going to finish higher? Absolutely. You just started with a stat that he was like 21st in past attempts per game last year. That doesn't matter. He's Drew Brees.

He can be 21st in past attempts per game because he's so much better than everyone else. And most other people. Okay, well, anyway. Taysom Hill. Taysom Hill is annoying. Taysom Hill is annoying. I will give you that. Well, look, he played 15 games last year and was on that pace and still was a top 12 quarterback.

We know why. Why? Because of a touchdown rate that was not sustainable. But I'm not asking. He was 6th last year. Or he was 6th if he had played his 16th game. I'm not asking. Because he had like 5 rushing touchdowns.

He's not Dak Prescott. I think he had 4. Yeah, I think he had 4. All right, well, let's start the show with Houston. They were 11-5 last year. Isn't it fun that the AFC South goes H-I-J Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville?

You love the alphabet. I do love the alphabet. Alright, they were 11 and five. They were fourth in rush attempts, 17th in pass attempts. Where do you want to start, Ben, with the Texans? I mean, the receivers is a good place to start you mentioned

at the top when kiki cutie and and will fuller were both on the field together they weren't super productive it's a tough situation i mean deandre hopkins is going to dominate targets um cutie did get i believe it's more targets than even him when when he was active but he had a super low a dot he's basically just uh like a an outlet he was getting, but he had a super low ADOT. He's basically just like an outlet. He was getting a lot of swing passes and really short passes. I think probably this year we have to expect his ADOT to come up at least a little bit for them to throw downfield to him a little. All right, ADOT, average depth of target.

Right. So, I mean, he's seeing a lot of targets near the line of scrimmage, and what that means is he could have definitely a high reception rate, which would make him better for PPR leagues. But he's not going to have a strong yards per reception number. He's not going to have a high TD rate. I believe he only had like one or two touchdowns last year because, you know, he's catching so many of his passes within like five yards of the line of scrimmage, which even in the red zone probably isn't the type of he's probably not going to get those targets because he's more of like a space player. And when they get in tight, they're going to throw to their tight ends.

Guys like Jordan Thomas had a bunch of short touchdowns last year. So Kiki Cutie, not a guy that I expect to have a lot of touchdowns. I do think he's a solid PPR guy. We'll get plenty of receptions and have a high catch rate because of those short passes. But it's just tough to project their target share. And that kind of goes into actually my key stat for the Texans. 67% of the Texans' targets last year went to wide receivers. Heath actually wrote an article about this earlier. I'm pulling it from his numbers.

And it was within a percentage point of Tampa Bay's league high rate. I think it was third, but right there with Tampa Bay as a league high rate. I actually think that could go up this year with no Ryan Griffin. They do have some tight ends, but I don't know that Jordan Thomas or Jordan Akins or the rookie Kahale Waring will necessarily command a lot of targets at tight end. And Lamar Miller hasn't been commanding

a lot of targets the last few years. And if Deontay Foreman plays more, he's more of a power back. I actually think that number could rise if Kiki Cutie and Will Fuller stay healthy and we could see a lot of targets go to those top three receivers. So Heath,

let's talk about the receivers a little bit more. You both have DeAndre Hopkins projected as wide receiver one, about 1500 yards, about 10 touchdowns and going over a hundred catches on about 161, 162 targets. So I guess first question is, are you concerned at all about Hopkins' target share with Fuller and QT?

You're projecting Fuller and QT to be healthy. Fuller obviously never stays healthy. The second question is going to be about Fuller because Heath, you have him projected to be wide receiver 42, Ben, wide receiver 39, about the same amount of fantasy points. Ben's giving him 848 yards to Heath's 778, but Heath's giving him two more touchdowns.

Less than 90 targets. 53-55 catches. Not a big year for QT. I mean, I want him to be better than wide receiver 40. I think QT's got a ton of ability and has top 20 potential. QT or Fuller? Sorry, Fuller. Thank you.

Yeah, I think Fuller has a ton. I love Fuller. I love him. But obviously, I understand the concerns. On a week-to-week basis, he surely does. There's really little reason to expect that he's going to be healthy. But you project him to be healthy, right? I am projecting Fuller and QT to play 16 games, which will not happen, almost certainly.

But I think you have to project all three to starting there and i i do think the problem is listen part of it is will fuller's production with the sean watson has been otherworldly and also entirely unsustainable it's not been a very many targets per game like four or five targets per game he's just averaged an enormous number of yards per reception and scored a touchdown like once every three targets or something. It's absurd and even if QT wasn't part of the equation, I wouldn't think that was going to continue. But last year he has

about six to seven targets per game. Two years ago, yeah, completely unsustainable. Last year, maybe a little unsustainable. But no, I mean, I am concerned because in the four games with QT, Fuller had 14 catches, 165 yards, and one touchdown, and 11 fewer targets than Kiki QT.

Yeah, I mean, it's a situation where if we knew either of those guys was going to get hurt, and they both have a lot of injuries in their history, like Heath said, if we could project one of those guys to be hurt, I'd really want the other one. Because they're both guys. I've talked about the age-adjusted production stuff with prospects. They're both guys who are very good in college at young ages, which is a really good indicator of future success.

They've both shown some production in the NFL. I'm just worried about the targets, right? But if we knew one of them was going to be injured, I'd be targeting the other one for sure. But I will say this probably leads into what we should talk about next. Deshaun Watson has arguably the best wide receiver in football and two young wide receivers that we both love and just wish there was more opportunity for. And he has been in his first two years in the NFL, one of the best young quarterbacks ever. My stat was 8.3.

That's Deshaun Watson's yards per attempt. Second only to Dan Marino for the first two seasons. Oh yeah. And he runs the ball for several hundred yards per year. I, for me, he's the unquestioned number two quarterback behind Patrick Mahomes in four point per pass touchdown leagues.

He is my number one quarterback and fuller, at least for right now, is kind of like what we talked about with Deshaun Jackson earlier in the week. He is going to help Deshaun Watson more than he's going to help your fantasy team, as long as Kiki Huchy stays healthy. Okay, let's talk about the running backs then. You both have Watson projected as QB2, by the way. Let's talk about the running backs and the split. So Lamar Miller, Heath has him for 235 carries, Ben for 216. Heath has Deontay Foreman for 141,

and Ben has him for 115. So he's just projecting more total carries between Miller and Foreman. You guys have Miller projected as RB28 for Heath in PPR, RB24 for Ben in PPR, and Miller has not, in the last three years with Houston, he has not finished lower than 21st in non-PPR or 22nd in PPR, so a little bit lower, Ben, than what he's been. Lamar Miller. Yeah, and some of that's because Deontay Foreman's now two years removed

from an Achilles injury, right? So two years ago, Foreman got hurt right as he was actually starting to take a little bit of the work from Miller. He actually got hurt on a long touchdown run going into the end zone. And then last year, obviously, it wasn't back to health. So this year, I think, assuming that he can come back and Achilles injuries for running backs, there's not a great track record of guys returning. But this guy's young. He's now two years removed. They took him really slow last year. I expect him to still have an NFL career. I'm not necessarily sure what to expect from him. But he's definitely a better player than Alfred Blue behind Lamar Miller. So some of that is just expecting Foreman to play and be a little bit more effective than than alfred blue was but um even at this projection where i have miller i i he's the guy that i'm not going to take in almost any league i mean it's just i don't see the upside we've seen what 16 games of lamar miller is in

the last couple years and you mentioned he hasn't finished lower than like rb21 but i'm pretty confident he hasn't had a uh an rb1 season in that span either you might have the numbers in front of you but he's basically an RB2. And you know you're going to get that, but you're also paying like, what is it, like a 6th or 7th round ADP? I mean, honestly, I don't even look at him when he's on my draft list.

I don't know where he goes. Yeah, yeah. No, you're right. The highest he's finished is 14th in non-PPR, 16th in PPR. And yeah, I get you. Over the last three years. With Houston, yeah.

Okay, yeah. Yeah, yeah. All right. So that. Over the last three years. With Houston, yeah. Okay, yeah. Yeah, yeah. All right, so that would be the Houston Texans. Just give me your quick thoughts on this as we wrap it up. How do you feel about drafting Will Fuller 81st overall and Kiki QT, I'll say, 110th overall? Better about QG. No, both.

Drafting them both. You're saying both? I think that's an interesting strategy. It's the friendship strategy, Ben. On physical ball calculator, QT's going 133rd overall, which makes it a lot more palatable. I don't see that happening in our leagues. But Ben, that would be the friendship

strategy. Then you want one of them to get hurt, because if they both stay healthy, you might not be able to play either of them, but you're hoping one of your players gets hurt. Yeah, my thing is, Will Fuller at 81 overall, I don't know right off the top of my head the five wide receivers that are going in that range, but I'm going to guess there are some with similar upside

without as much concern for me. Yeah. Allen Robinson. Better target force. Dante Pettis. Yep, yeah, I like those guys better. Christian Kirk. Yep. All right, moving on guys better. Christian Kirk. Yep.

All right, moving on to our next team here. Indianapolis. All right. 17th in rush attempts last year. 6th in pass attempts. Why are you guys projecting Deshaun Watson to be better than Andrew Luck? You have Luck. Heath has QB4.

Ben has QB3. Heath, I'll give you the first word. Why Watson over Luck? It's the rushing production is part of it. I really like what Watson did running the ball in the second half. And we saw more of Watson's upside in his rookie year in terms of on a per-game basis. And that's mostly it. Okay. That's what I was going i was gonna say too we don't

have to quibble too much there obviously andrew luck is is a really good option uh but marlin mac you guys haven't projected for rb21 there is a number in your projections that i think is too low because like like i keep mentioning injuries don't factor in. These guys project 16. Do you project 16 games for every player? Yeah. Essentially. Yeah, not Tyreek Hill. Yeah, so Thurman. Unless I know they're not playing 16 games.

Yeah, right. I meant for injury, right. Okay. You don't have double-digit rushing touchdowns for Marlon Mack. He had nine in 12 games last year. He's playing behind arguably the best offensive line in football. He's going to score. If he plays 16 games, he's scoring 12 or more touchdowns. Book it!

I'd be curious, Ben, and I think your number is probably lower than mine, how many running backs you have projected for double-digit touchdowns. I don't think I have any. Rushing. Yeah, I don't think I have any. I think Zeke leads the league at 9.7, so you can obviously round that upke leads leads the league at like 9.7 so you

can you know obviously round that up i do the fractional touchdown so i have yeah zeke excuse me at 9.6 and then i have another five guys between 9.0 and 9.4 but yeah i don't have anybody projected offhand for for 10 rushing touchdowns that's a pretty big i mean obviously guys are going to do it but it's just, but it's hard to project. Like, Zeke last year had six, right? Like, even the league leader in rushing yards had six last year. Which is crazy, but I do think there are certain situations... Like, a feature back on good offense

getting the goal line work is going to probably score 10 touchdowns in 16 games, right? So that's kind of why I think Mack will score... Like I said, he had nine in 12 games last year. Look, I'm surprised RB21 feels low to me on Mack. You both have him. Yeah, I mean, I don't hate your call at all. I mean, I just think that,

I'm trying to pull it up right now, but I'm curious what percentage of the Colts rushing touchdowns he accounted for in those games, probably close to all of them. And that's a hard thing to do year over year. You might just see a couple go to Jordan Wilkins or Spencer Ware, who they brought in. He would have to maintain like a 90% share of the rushing touchdowns.

Maybe not quite because they're not going to just run for 15 touchdowns as a team. They'll probably run for more than that, but that's part of it. It's just like you spread them around a little bit because you don't know what team is going to have a backup that vult as a team. They'll probably run for more than that. But that's part of it. It's just like you spread them around a little bit because you don't know what team is going to have a backup. The Vultures a few. But I can definitely see it. I definitely think that's in max range of potential outcomes.

I've got him projected for nine, so I'm not going to argue with 10. As far as running back 21, for me, that's mostly just because this is a PPR exercise. And I've got him for 20 receptions, and that almost feels like it might be too high. Actually, I just pulled it up. The Colts ran for 13 touchdowns last year. And Eric Ebron had one of them.

Yeah. That is a very low number. Hines had two, Wilkins had one, and Mack had nine. So what does that mean to you when you project this year? I mean, especially with how much they passed, and I'm projecting them for one fewer pass attempt than Pittsburgh for my second most pass volume. You know, second most pass attempts in the league. Yeah.

And knowing that Luck is going to probably throw a ton of passes. Like we're talking about the Luck and Watson comparison. I have Luck for throwing for seven more touchdowns than Watson, which in a baseline projection is a pretty huge gap between two different elite quarterbacks. So for me, same as Heath, the difference is the rushing. But for me, it says, yeah, that's probably going to come up. 13's low. But also, this team is comfortable

throwing the ball in the red zone and probably will throw plenty of touchdowns as well. So that might be the biggest detriment to Matt getting to 12 rushing touchdowns. So you guys have Naeem Hines projected to be an RB four and PPR with 49 or more catches 56 for Heath 49 for Ben for nine Heinz. So let's talk about the receivers, including Eric Ebron.

I know you guys are afraid of Eric Ebron. You're dropping them down to seven touchdowns for Heath six for Ben. The numbers are pretty shocking. When you look at what his production was, what his targets were with Jack Doyle on the field and without Jack Doyle. But, yeah, I mean, I guess we have a general sense of where these guys are going to go. Hilton, late round two, early round three in a 12-team league.

Ebron, I actually don't know. Round six? Round seven? There is such a wide range. There are leagues where he is the fourth tight end off the board after the big three, and it's like in that round four, round five range. And then there are leagues where everyone seems wise to what he did with Doyle on the

field last year, and he falls all the way to round eight or round nine. And if he falls to round eight or round nine, I'm fine with it. Yeah, I'm seeing him right now on Fantasy Football Calculator, their latest ADP. I think I have non-PPR, but it shouldn't matter too much. 72nd overall, which is the ninth pick of round six. But, you know, is anybody going to be worth their ADP other than T.Y. Hilton in your minds, guys? I think that's a legitimate concern. I mean, Heath's stat is a good one here

because the only positive thing is they're going to throw a ton. So, Heath, go ahead. Yeah, they were the second or third most pass-heavy team in the league. 59.8% of their offensive plays were pass attempts. And I don't know that I necessarily expect that to change much. All right, Ben, your stat then on this tight end situation. Yeah, so in the 10 games that Jack Doyle missed last season, Eric Ebron, he ran 34.4 routes per game and saw 8.8 targets.

In the six Doyle played, he averaged just 17.7 routes per game. So just barely more than half as many as he did when Doyle was out. 3.7 targets, that's fewer than half as many targets as he was averaging when Doyle was out. And when Doyle was playing alongside Ebron, he was actually running more routes, 25.7, which is eight more routes per game than Ebron was running, and seeing 5.5 targets, which is almost two targets more than Ebron was seeing. So if Doyle stays healthy for 16 games, I'm not necessarily convinced that he would continue this trend and run more routes than Ebron and see more targets than Ebron

because Ebron continued his breakout throughout the year. I think it could be a pretty even split. But right now in my projections, I have them projected for almost identical targets, which for me, I actually, to what he said about if Ebron fells to the round, falls to round eight or round nine, I actually probably still wouldn't take him there because I just don't, I think his floor is relatively low with all these new additions as well. Well, I definitely think the floor is low. The one thing I will say in favor of him, and I've kind of bashed him for most of the last month. The one thing I will say in favor

is at tight end, especially if you get past the first six or seven and you're a little later in the draft, it's kind of the same argument I made for Jordan Reed. I'll take the guy with the upside, and if he flops, I'll just stream. And he's better in non-PPR because we should expect a decent TD rate. Yeah, yeah. All right, let's finish up here with you guys have neither Devin Funchess nor Paris Campbell as anything higher than wide receiver 49.

That's Heath for Funchess. Ben has Funchess 59 and Campbell even worse. Yeah, I think it's really interesting, and it's why I'm quite a bit lower, I think, on Hilton than you or Ben. But this is not a team that has a lot of opportunity available from last year's squad. They have 105 targets available off of last year's team. And Hilton saw his targets fall below nine targets per game last year. He's like 9.9, I think, in Andrew Luck's last year, 2016.

Last year, he was around 8.5. But there's not a lot of room for Funchess or Campbell, even if one of those guys took all of the available targets. And I don't expect either of them to take all of the available targets. So I don't mind Funchess in a non-PPR because I think he could score a lot of touchdowns, kind of like an Ebron situation, but I'm not particularly

excited about either of them. The Jacksonville Jaguars are next. They went 5-11 last year. So just a major difference from 2017 to 2018. 2017, they led the NFL in rush attempts. Last year, they were 12th in rush attempts. Ben, why don't you give us a stat about the Jaguars to kick things off? Yeah, I mean, me and Heath are going to have to talk a little bit about the receivers

because I have Marquise Lee leading the target share. He has him, I think, fourth. And so my stat is like a shot across his bow here. Over Marquise Lee's 2016 and 2017, because he missed 2018, in run-heavy offenses with Blake Bortles at QB, his 16-game paces, and he played 30 of the 32 games. He played 14 games one season, all 16 the next season. 107 targets, 828 yards.

I mean, that's a pretty solid baseline. And I think he actually has a little upside from that because of Jacksonville kind of trending potentially towards a better quarterback play and also towards more passes. I don't disagree with anything Ben said, so it wasn't necessarily a shot across my belt. I had Marquise Lee tied for first in targets when I first did my projections with D.D. Westbrook,

because I think one of those guys could really make a splash this year. What scared me off of Lee for the time being was the report that he's not going to be ready for the start of camp. He's hopeful to be ready for the middle of camp, and then there was a report in The Athletic that he could possibly start the year on the pup.

Oh, I actually missed that. So that would not be good news. Now, it did not say he was going to start the year on the pup. I think that he's still talking like he wants to be ready for week one. I'm just a little bit worried about that. That's really it. Well, okay, so D.D. Westbrook, Heath, you have D.D. Westbrook projected as wide receiver 26.

Like, it's just crazy to me that you have D.D. Westbrook projected to be, what, like 14 spots better than Will Fuller. You have him 80 catches, 912 yards, and six touchdowns. You just have a thing for D.D. Westbrook. I got news for you. He wasn't very good last year. He did just have a thing for D.D. Westbrook. I got news for you. He wasn't very good last year. He did not have a very good quarterback. I got news for you.

He doesn't have a very good quarterback right now. Don't talk bad about Carson Wentz. Nick Foles is not that good. Nick Foles is an enormous upgrade. Mostly, though, there's not a big change from where I have Westbrook in terms of efficiency and where he was last year. He was 66, 7, 17, and 5 on 101 targets. I expect them to throw the ball more often. I have him for 121 targets this year.

There's a slight increase in efficiency because I do think Nick Foles is better than the quarterbacks he played with last year, but it's not a big boost. It's one more touchdown. It's 200 more yards on 20 more targets. It's just not that big of a boost. It's mostly me saying he's going to be the number

one wide receiver on the team. Do you think if Marquise Lee is ready by week one that D.D. Westbrook is the number one receiver on the team? That is why I was hedging when I first did my projections. I don't feel confident in saying, if Marquise Lee was 100% right now, this would be one of those camp battles that I would be watching to see who Nick Foles

is making the best connection with. I think they're both talented and have upside. Okay, they also have, it's not a great receiving core, let's be honest. They also have Keelan Cole, DJ Chark, Chris Conley, Terrell Pryor. So, I mean, certainly Westbrook can rise to the top there. It's probably a good time

for my stats. 63.1%. That was the Vikings' pass rate when John D. Filippo was the offensive coordinator. That was behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers in terms of how often they threw the football. I have such a hard

time believing that he threw the ball that much in Minnesota, refused to run the ball, got fired for it basically, and then Jacksonville immediately hired him with the expectation that they're going to be a very run-heavy offense. And they signed Nick Foles.

But it doesn't make any sense for me to see Jacksonville be a pass-heavy offense. Because we've seen the best of the Jaguars. Like, 2017, Leonard Fournette was on pace for 330 carries. And then in the middle of the season when he got healthy, they were giving him like 25 carries a game, and then he got suspended. He got kicked out of the game at Buffalo. He got suspended, and they kind of faded Leonard Fournette.

But I think that Jacksonville is at its best as a ground-and-pound team that relies on their defense. So, yeah, I think you guys, I think your carries projections for Leonard Fournette kind of stood out as a little low to me. You have him, Heath, you have him projected for 278 and Ben at 268. And I actually think he could lead the league in rushing. Attempts, attempts.

That's fair because the concern for me with the DiFilippo hiring is they didn't hire him because they want to go past Evie. They hired him just because of his relationship with Foles. And that would be, you know. That would be the concern. They were said to be very close when Foles took over in the Super Bowl run when DiFilippo was on staff with the Eagles.

It might not be because of his tendency to be more pass-heavy. It might just be a relationship thing. You both have Fournette projected to be a top 12 running back and more than 40 catches which is nice now he did show that ability uh more than 350 receiving yards two touchdowns so uh he could you know he could be really good value if he stays healthy and um yeah he like i said on pace for 330 carries two years ago okay obviously i think you think the projections might not show up,

but we know there's downside with Fournette. He gets hurt. He's got, you know, maybe he's not in the best standing with the organization, but if everything goes right, he could have a great year. Let's go to the Tennessee Titans to finish up the AFC South. So how difficult is it to project Marcus Mariota, who completed 69% of his passes, has been at 7.6 yards per attempt in three or four seasons,

and that's very respectable, but has never thrown for 3,500 yards, has never played more than 15 games, was playing hurt last year. I don't know. I think all the injuries must make him a little bit difficult to evaluate. Heath, how difficult is it to project Marcus Mariota? It's very difficult to project this.

This was the team that Ben chose, and if I wasn't just trying to come up with a different team, I probably would have as well. They've got an offensive coordinator that's never done anything even close to calling plays before. He's most well-known because his dad runs FedEx. I don't have any idea what their offensive game plan is going to be. I don't really, like, I was a pretty big Marcus Mariota believer when he came out,

and he's shown at times an ability to be a pretty efficient passer, but he also just can't stay healthy. The running back situation is kind of a disaster because Derrick Henry was the best running back in football for of a disaster because derrick henry was the best running back in football for the last four weeks of the season but my stat was the number 39 that's where he ranked in ppr before those last four weeks of the season like it's just a complete and utter disaster in terms of having like any confidence in projecting this offense. Ben, what's your stat for the Titans? 437 pass attempts last year, which was the second fewest of any team in the past five seasons.

It was actually the second fewest last year as well. Both of them and the Seahawks last year were lower than any team in the previous four seasons. I think that was related to Mariota's injury, and I wrote about this a little bit in a Corey Davis piece that was up a couple of weeks ago on CBS. And what I went into was Mariota had had an average target depth, how far downfield he was throwing the ball in his first three seasons of 9.2, 9.6, and 8.9. Last year year it was down at 7.6 so more than a yard plus uh lower than his previous career low and i think you know his elbow injury was in week one these guys were extremely uh low on the pass attempts all year in eight different games they threw 25 or fewer passes the rest of the league averaged like two and a half, 2.4 games with 25 or fewer

passes. They had a game in there where they only threw 15 passes, which was the lowest volume in any game all season. Whenever the Titans got a lead last year, they kind of refused to throw the ball. And then you look at how far Mariota was pushing it down the field. He clearly didn't just didn't seem healthy all year. to me i definitely expect the titans passes to bounce back uh last the last few years of mariotta's career they threw the two years prior they averaged like about 500 pass attempts which still isn't it's still very run heavy but that's a lot more than 437 pass attempts so i agree with you i mean mariotta's a really tough guy to project if he gets back above 500 pass attempts, if he's healthier, he has upgraded receivers. Now, A.J. Brown is a really good prospect. He's not in a great spot. He's not someone to really consider for fantasy from, you know, from draft perspective. But Adam Humphrey is also a solid option. Delaney Walker should be back healthy. healthy um and i still think cory davis is is capable of being a wide receiver one he still

had a top 10 target share last year his average depth target dropped a yard and a half just along with mariotas because they were not throwing downfield as much and davis you think he's capable of being like a top 12 fantasy wide receiver i don't know if he has it upside that comes out of team volume but he was better if you look at his depth of target, he was better downfield than close to the line of scrimmage. So I do think Mariano's injury impacted the types of targets that he's better at, which are the intermediate and downfield targets. To clarify, I think Corey Davis, with a good quarterback in just an average offense,

is good enough to be a top 12 fantasy wide receiver. Why? I don't understand. What is it about Corey Davis that we like so much? Guys, I think he's a bust. I think he was a bad pick by the Tennessee Titans, and I'm sorry. And for fantasy purposes, he is not in a good offense. He's getting Delaney Walker back. He's getting A.J. Brown, and they drafted him the second round.

I am 100% going to be the low guy on on cory davis i tell you that that might pay off it's you don't we can't call um a first round number five overall pick receiver a bust until after his third year i don't think i mean that's fair um and i think it has to do with 20 percent with mario 20 percent of the team's targets in his rookie season in the games he played in 26% last year. And volume's a really good indicator of his ability to at least get open. Everyone thinks it's just like an opportunity stat. I think there's some skill involved there. So the fact that he's earning a high percentage of the targets is a good sign.

And eight yards per target on 112 targets is not bad. It's not great, but it's not bad. Well, I don't think... I just don't think much of Mariota. So I'm hesitant to buy into this offense, except maybe Delaney Walker. We don't talk enough about tight ends, I feel, in these projections sometimes, and that's my fault.

So let's talk about him. Gosh, the odds are stacked against him, right? I mean, he's coming off a bad injury. He's old uh you guys have him for between 539 and 646 yards and four touchdowns so not really based on the projections ben not really someone we should be excited about on draft day delaney walker yeah i mean not someone to be excited about but i think you could go back and listen to what we said about jordan reed yesterday and it would fit right here. I mean, he's, he's really cheap on draft day and if he is healthy and for as long as he's healthy,

he's probably going to be pretty good on a per game basis. And then like he just alluded to, you can just go ahead and stream after that if, if he doesn't stay healthy or if he's struggling. But if you wait at tight end, I think he's actually a really good option late if he like if let's say you haven't taken a tight end till 15 have been taken he is a guy that i think you can justify being your tight end one week one if he's healthy um and just hope that he's healthy enough to can to be you know a 20 target share guy which he has been in the past let's talk about the running backs to finish out the NFC South. So you have Derek Henry projected for similar stats as Marlon Max. You guys have him as RB22.

On only 13 catches for Heath, 15 for Ben. That makes sense. You're giving Deion Lewis 50 catches, and Ben's giving him 42. Heath, 42 catches for Ben. Toward the end of the year, the last four games of the season when Derrick Henry got going, starting with that Jacksonville game, Deion Lewis had just 14 catches in four games, but that's not so bad.

What is that over? That's 56 catches? Yeah. So this is even a little bit lower. He's a great value this year. I mean, it seems like Keith agrees. He's got him even higher. What do you think, Keith?

Yes. He is a guy that i rank lower than i project okay especially in ppr because he's one of i i have a hard time getting excited about him but i do think in best ball and in leagues where you have start a couple of flexes he is a good value in virtually all drafts because he's almost free and if something happens to henry i mean they don't have any like third back. They have Alex Barnes is an interesting I think it was a UDFA interesting back that they added to their depth chart, but they don't really have anybody. I think Dion Lewis would be the lead back and get the receiving and the rushing work if something happened to Henry. So I do kind of like him as this like, you know, this hybrid of kind of a handcuff, but also has some standalone value as well. So I kind of like him as this hybrid of kind of a handcuff, but also has some standalone value as well. So I kind of like him.

Okay, so Derrick Henry is going to be extremely controversial or polarizing or whatever. Ben, you talked about his sort of like empty carries, carries between the 20s, no catches, not the type of profile you like. You have him projected for 1,004 yards, nine rushing touchdowns, and just a little bit in the passing game. RB 22 for both of you, with Heath a little bit more optimistic

on the total fantasy points. Go ahead and give me your takes on Henry. Yeah, I think this kind of profile has – you have to rush for 1,800 yards to be a top five back. And where you have to take Henry and drafts. You're really hoping that he can be a top five back that he has that kind of upside. It looked back at Jordan Howard. I think it was two years ago.

He was top five in the league and rush attempts and rushing yards and a rushing TDs for the bears. And he was like RB 13 in PPR leagues because he didn't do anything in the receiving game. And that's just, that's just kind of the way that, that, that it plays out in today's day and age. Several years ago, guys like Michael Turner could be top five backs without much receiving work, but there's just way more duality with running backs, the elite running backs in today's day and age. And especially when you're playing in PPR leagues and these guys are catching 70, 80, 90,free had over 100 catches last year um you need henry to get a lot more catches people are excited that he might but uh you know we're projecting him for

13 i mean even if he takes a huge jump in in catches he's still probably below average in that in that element so it's a tough needle to thread he has to be very very efficient i think he's a great player it's just hard for fantasy he yeah he's definitely one of the guys you like more in non-ppr yeah yeah do you have a do you have a projection for him in non-ppr in terms of where he finishes where he comes out i think i've got him 15th let me pull it up that's seven because i do have it i gotta just sort this derrick henry I have him. RB 19. Yeah, so he bumps up a little bit for me in non-PPR too. Yeah, I've got him 15.

I'd have him for 9.3 rushing TDs. We were just talking about, you know, I don't have anyone projected for 9 or over 10. I mean, he's my top five in rushing TD projections. Yeah, I mean, I think he's a good NFL player, but it's just not great for fantasy. All right. The NFC South should be a really fun division this year.

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Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Welcome back. If you are looking for a new ringtone, people are really into the Heath sigh. It's this. That was lifted from a fantasy baseball today

episode it was the best Heath sigh we've ever had so you can have it as your ringtone just send us an email fantasyfootballatcbsi.com programming announcement we're all coming back later today on Wednesday to record another episode that's going to be published on Thursday on the 4th of July

and then we'll be back again, most likely on Monday, but we want you all to have an awesome 4th of July. And I don't know. That's all I got to say. I was going to say something else about the soccer team, but Heath, I think we've,

we beat that. We, we beat that dead horse during the baseball podcast. So yeah, you had a terrible take. I put it in the thread on Twitter, and everyone told you it was terrible. Adam's worst

takes, yeah. Don't like the showboating. Alright, so here we go to the south of the NFC. Atlanta, 7-9 last year. The defense basically their best defensive players all getting hurt early in the season led to them being 5th in pass attempts and 30th in rush attempts,

led to Matt Ryan being the number two quarterback in fantasy. You guys project him to be much worse than that. Let me see. It is QB 11 for Heath and 12 for Ben. So this is not quite as egregious as Drew Brees. But is it just volume? Is that what's going to go down, Heath, for Matt Ryan? It's not just volume, but we'll start there

because my stat is 529 is the number, and that's the number of pass attempts Matt Ryan had in 16 games in 2017. In 2016 is just ridiculous year. he threw the ball 534 times but i spent the whole following off season telling everyone that was not sustainable and it wasn't everyone knew that the other thing is not just the volume but the touchdowns he has been really, really weird when it comes to the touchdowns. 2015, he had a 3.4% touchdown rate. That's bad.

That's like Eli Manning, Joe Flacco bad. 2016, 7.1%. Unsustainable, but fantastic. 2017, 3.8%. Bad again. Last year, goes back up to 5.8%. For his career, he's at 4.8%. Bad again. Last year, it goes back up to 5.8%. For his career, he's at 4.8%. I think saying he's going to be around 5% is fine.

But if the pass attempts fall below 600 and the touchdown rate's right around 5%, you're not looking at 30 touchdown passes anymore. I just expect the defense to be better, him to throw less, and have not quite as much success throwing touchdown passes. And, yeah, you guys both have him projected, I think, for 29 touchdown passes, right?

So Matt Ryan, top 12 quarterback, but just not going to be amazing according to Heath and Ben. I do think, though, that his weapons look great. I think Calvin Ridley's awesome. And you guys have Calvin Ridley projected. Heath, wide receiver 21. Ben, wide receiver 25. Both have him for 70 or more catches.

Seven touchdowns, which would be a little bit less than last year. And Ben, you have him for 890 in terms of yards on 104 targets. And Heath for 974. So, you know, based on your projections, Mohamed Sanu doesn't really need to be drafted. He's outside the top 50. But Calvin Ridley, you know, should follow up a good, a great rookie year with a strong sophomore season.

Do you think there's potential for a lot more here for him, for Ridley? Or do you think, you know, number two wide receiver is basically as good as it could get? Ben? It's hard with Julio Jones' projected volume. I mean, my stat here for Atlanta is that Julio Jones has led the NFL in receiving yards per game in three of the last four seasons. He's averaged over 100 yards per game in five of the last six.

I mean, for his career, 96.7 per game. Going back to his rookie season when he was still kind of a part-time player, this is a guy that's going to dominate a lot of the volume in the offense, both targets and yardage, downfield looks and racking up a lot of yardage, which makes it tough for Calvin Ridley. But I do think Calvin Ridley is very good. I mean, his rookie season production is pretty clear on that. Like you said, we've got to expect the receiving TDs to regress a little bit.

They were pretty out of this world last year. But he's somebody that I expect to be pretty good. And I think – so Heath's point about Matt Ryan's pass attempts is a good one. In 2016 and 2017, they were more run heavy than average just based on rush percentage. Last year, they were very pass heavy, which we talked about with the defensive injuries. One thing I think might happen in 2019 is I think it's hard to just assume they'll go back to 2016 and 17 rates because their personnel has changed now. They've lost Kevin Coleman. They're not as deep at running back.

And Calvin Ridley's emergence, I think, will make them probably want to throw more in neutral situations, not just when they're trailing. So, yeah, I mean, I think we might see a little bit more of a bump in pass attempts than what Matt Ryan was doing in 2016 and 2017. So do I. Yeah. You actually haven't projected for more than I do. I think I have a little faster pace than you do. Yeah. Yeah.

So, I mean, I think that's, yeah, that's just an interesting thing to consider is that Ryan might keep a little bit more of that volume bump than you'd assume looking back at 2016 and 2017. I do wonder if they could have—I thought they were going to have a really good defense last year, like really good, and they lost some very key players very early, and they had a terrible defense. They are one of my favorite last-round defenses. Let's talk about the running backs.

You guys both have Devontae Freeman projected to be RB17. 209 carries for Ben, 226 for Heath. Less than 1,000 yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, and then good production, 300 receiving yards, about 38 catches for both of you, about 300 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns. This is what Devontae Freeman's done when he's been relatively healthy.

2015, he was the number one running back in fantasy. 2016, he was number six. 2017, he was number 13 in non-PPR, 14th in PPR, but he only played 14 games. And in those three seasons now, let's see, he caught 73, 54, and 36 in 15, 16, and 14 games. 36 catches in 14 games. So why only 38 catches?

I mean, this is a guy who, like I said, once caught 73 passes. For me, it's mostly because with Julio and expecting a target share increase for Ridley, there just weren't enough targets to go around. Well, you gave Ido Smith basically as many catches as Devante Freeman, Heath. I think it's going to be a timeshare. And I don't know. I think that Freeman's going to come off the field more on passing downs than he does on rushing downs.

Ben, how did you project that? No, I mean, I pretty much totally agree. I agree with your implication, Adam, that Freeman could be a steal this year. I just don't love drafting older running backs. He's only 27, but injured last year. He's definitely somebody that I can see the justification for drafting. Absolutely. There's a wide range.

Yeah, really. He could play two games. I think when you look at most of the top 20 running backs and you look at their projections, there's so wide range. Yeah, yeah. He could play two games. I think when you look at most of the top 20 running backs and you look at their projections, there's so much potential. The Kerryon Johnsons, Devontae Freemans, even the Derrick Henrys of the world, and Marlon Mack.

So would you rather have Mack than Freeman? They're so similar to me. I love the fact that the Falcons drafted two offensive linemen in the first round, right? Yeah. But Mac's already got that offensive line. I think Freeman's a better player than Mac. I would...

He's going to probably catch more passes. He's definitely going to catch more passes than Mac. Honestly, Heath, if I had 10 leagues, I might draft Freeman in five and Mac in five. They'd probably be... Both over Henry. In PPR, yeah. How about you?

Yeah, I've got Freeman, Mack, Henry. All right. All right. How about we take a look at Carolina? And what's my storyline here on Carolina? Well, it was about DJ Moore, but we can go back to him a little bit later. What's interesting for you guys with Carolina? I thought this was one of the least interesting teams.

Yeah, me too. In terms of coming up with things to say. My stat was 242.5. That was Cam's passing yards per game last year. It was his highest mark since his rookie year. I think he did acclimate well to the new offense. And if he's 100% with DJ Moore taking the step that I expect him to

and Christian McCaffrey and one of the two tight ends being a help, I think Cam Newton belongs in that conversation of guys that could be the number one quarterback in fantasy. Oh, I agree with that totally. And I got some good stats for you here. So let's go into some snap share stuff. First of all, Christian McCaffrey played 100 hundred percent of the snaps in eight of his 16 games last year.

The rest of the whole, he's running backs combined for three games like that. There were seven total from 2015 to 2017. So other than McCaffrey over the last four years, there's been 10 total games like that. And he did it eight times last year. So this is a running back. That's not going to come off the field,

which is just really rare. And I have some concerns about him holding up. I was wondering if that's bad. Right. But I, that is why I ended up projecting him running back one, because in a baseline projection, he's the guy that I,

I can project for the most volume. He's playing an insane amount of snaps. But snap the, the bigger snap share stuff that I think is really interesting is with DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, DJ Moore played just 25% of the snaps in weeks one and two. He first went over 50% in week eight. And he first broke 90% in week 12.

And he stayed above 90% all the way until week 17 where he dipped down a little bit. He still finished as a really solid fantasy producer last year. And in his age 21 season another young productive player in college uh and i think that's key how his snaps weren't high early in the season he still came out pretty strong i think starting from week one next year as a starting receiver this guy has massive upside per to samuel same situation they they limited him early he only went over 50 of the snaps in the last six games, and he scored double-digit PPR points in five of those last six games. So both these guys

were brought along slow, played more late, and were very productive late. And right now, looking at this offense, there's no one else being even really considered in drafts. Greg Olson's a late-round pick other than McCaffrey, Newton, and Moore and Samuel. It kind of reinforces that Moore and Samuel don't have a ton of competition, whether it's Chris Hogan, Jarius Wright's probably going to play some in the slot. Those guys aren't going to be threats to DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel playing big snapshares from week one. So I actually love those two guys. They both run the ball as well.

They're dual threats, fast. I think this offense is going to be really entertaining the ball as well. They'll do dual threats fast. I think this offense is going to be really entertaining this year as well. Well, I think what's really interesting when you look at Moore and Samuel is that you don't really have that much separation in your targets when you project them. Like Heath and Ben have DJ Moore for 108 and 110 targets, and they have Curtis Samuel for 97, 96 targets. So basically within 14 targets of each other.

And I personally, I mean, I think we all would probably like TJ Moore to get, I don't know, 30 more targets than Curtis. Like be a legit number one wide receiver. Because in two games without Devin Funchess last year, he was awesome. His production was better. His targets were pretty much the same, but his production was better at eight catches for 91 yards against Seattle, four catches for 81 yards at New Orleans. I don't know that he's going to really take the next step unless he can get some

more target separation. I just think it's interesting that you guys projected those two receivers for very similar target numbers. That's fair. One thing I would note is DJ Moore had 13 carries last year as well, And Samuel had eight in his defense, but these guys are going to probably get a rush attempt per game more racked up 172 rushing yards last year too. So that's a lot of bonus points there too. Okay. I think that you can't quite overlook what Ian Thomas did the last five

games of the season. He, I was trying to get the full numbers, but he had 46, 77, overlook what Ian Thomas did the last five games of the season. I was trying to get the full numbers, but he had 46, 77, 14, 48, and 61 yards. So that's 46 or more yards in four or five games, and that's really not bad for a tight end. And he had two touchdowns. So, like, obviously we need Greg Olson to take a hike, but you're going to tell me that Greg Olson is going to stay healthy all year?

I don't think so. Yeah, he'll be a fine waiver wire pickup. Yeah. I mean, we did a mock draft yesterday, but it was a startup dynasty league, and I took Ian Thomas, like, super late. So he's 23 years old, and I think there's a lot of potential. You guys think there's a lot of potential with Ian Thomas? Yeah. You guys think there's a lot of potential with Ian Thomas? Yeah, I mean, if Olsen's hurt, and looking back at Delaney Walker, for example, Delaney Walker got hurt last year.

I think I would rather have him than Greg Olsen. Olsen's been hurt now for two straight years, and it seems to be a lingering foot thing. It might just be the end of the line for him. He's played a combined 16 games over the last two years. And Walker's coming back from from one injury that didn't linger into a second season quite yet so when we're looking at these kinds of like older tight ends that are available late jason jason whitten coming out of retirement's another

one uh olson's the one that i'm most apprehensive about okay and by the way you don't know this about me ben but i actually liked Jason Witten on Monday Night Football. I thought it was good. Nobody agrees. I disagree. I strongly disagree. Ben, you should just go read the thread. I'll share it with you so then you can have all of Adam's bad takes.

Well, why don't I find the bad take bracket, the March Madness-style bad take bracket. That's a good idea. Let's see if I can find that. When you have so many bad takes that someone created a bracket out of it, that's impressive. Got in the podcast league. Okay. Hold on.

I want to have an actual bracket and vote through to the champion. Jerry Maguire might be the champion. No. Yeah, the best take I've ever had. Not a football movie. So, New Orleans, yeah, you guys are wrong about Drew Brees. He's not going to be QB 15. Go ahead. Discuss. of football movie so new orleans uh yeah you guys are wrong about drew breeze he's not gonna be qb 15 go ahead discuss uh i mean tasem hill is an issue uh the pass volume is an issue i you know

i i don't really have like a a huge reason like a reason to hate drew breeze he's still very good and very productive but um i don't have them throwing a ton of passes. 546 passes is not a huge number. And yeah, I mean, I do think Taysom Hill's a legitimate concern. They're using him specifically in the red zone. I don't really know how you project that, but it is something that I took into consideration. I projected him, I think, for a couple of rushing touchdowns. You don't want your quarterback coming off the field in the red zone i will just say this first off adam i'm certain you're right he won't probably won't be qb 15 one way or the other right um and if he plays 16 games then he almost certainly won't be because a few of the guys

i have projected ahead of him won't play 16 games but there's not enough pass volume there for me to be excited about wanting to have him as my starting quarterback. I don't believe the touchdown rate from last year. I don't believe the rushing touchdowns from last year. And without those, he's a number two quarterback. Is he, though? Because he was on pace to be a top six quarterback last year. So if you take away two rushing touchdowns and I don't have his full stats in front of me.

So how many passing touchdowns do you want to give him? Um, he had 32 last year, 29. Okay. So take, I think 29 is pretty generous to be honest, because that's five,

5.9% rates. Let's go to his career rate, which is taking away, um, 27. Okay, no, 29. He had 23 the year before. 27. Yeah, 23 was ridiculous.

How many times has he been below 30 since becoming a saint? How many times has he been below 500 pass attempts? Right. That just happened starting. I'm giving him 29. So if I took away 30 points from him, that gives him 337. That made him the number 12 quarterback or maybe 11.

Which I just pulled up my projections. He's five points behind my number 12 spot. I have him at, yeah, behind my number 12 spot. I have him at 15. I mean, it's a big tier right there. So it's kind of splitting hairs. I'm not like down on him. Does Alvin Kamara get a bump without Mark Ingram or does Latavius Murray just become Mark Ingram or what or both or what?

Both. Yeah, slight bump for Kamara, but mostly Murray just becomes Mark Ingram. Mark Ingram of last year, not Mark Ingram before last year because Ingram I don't think was involved in the passing game last year. Right. And that's the big concern with Murray, whether Murray has actual upside as if he will be involved in the passing game. The reason he's such an awesome fit is he has a career rushing touchdown rate well above league average in terms of rushing attempts. He's always gotten goal line looks. He's always been pretty effective in converting those. He was pretty solid. I think he had a 12 TD rushing season with Oakland and then pretty solid

in Minnesota as well. My stat for the Saints, the last two seasons, 27 total running back touchdowns both years. No other team in the league had more than 25 either year. Rushing or total rushing or excuse me

rushing and receiving total touchdowns for the running backs yeah and the year before that they had 24 so they actually have averaged over 25 three years in a row and no team in the last three years has had more than 25 the patriots are also up there they hit like right around 25 a couple times but this the same team no no team has more touchdown upside it for the running backs and latavius murray i just mentioned really strong touchdown runner goal line runner uh i think he's going to be a very stable late round pick that you can start he'll probably rush for eight touchdowns the issue is like like he said will he get any receiving work probably not but this is also why I'm so tempted to take Alvin Kamara

as the number one running back in PPR because you guys have him projected for more than 80 catches. Without Mark Ingram last year, Alvin Kamara averaged 14 carries per game, four games. With Mark Ingram, he averaged 11.5 carries per game. I feel very confident that between Kamara, McCaffrey, Barkley, and Zeke, he will be on the best offense. He will also catch passes

and catch touchdowns. You have him projected for four, both of you. You have him projected as RB3. I certainly have no problem with that. That top four is going to be a toss-up, it seems. I feel like I want to take him number one,

but I'm afraid to do it because everybody has Barkley number one, basically. I think you can take him number one. He's the poster boy for the opposite of the Derrick Henry point. What I like in running backs, which is receiving work and goal line equity.

As far as Henry's concerned, yes, we can project him for a lot of Russian touchdowns, but I don't know that Tennessee's offense is going to score a lot with the saints. We know that the running backs in the saints offense are going to score a bunch of touchdowns and Alvin Kamara is going to get a high percentage of those. What he's giving up, like people are concerned about his workload. That's the real reason he's not running back one. Well, he's not necessarily going to be a 200 carry back this and that. And the other thing that the touches he's giving up are the touches that aren't as valuable for fantasy,

the between-the-20s rush attempts. He's giving up that stuff. He gets plenty of red zone touches, and he gets plenty of receptions, and that's huge for his upside. Heath, how about the wide receivers? Obviously, Michael Thomas, you guys have him projected as a top-five guy, about 150 targets, 111 catches for Ben, 114 for Heath. Does that lead the NFL according to your projections?

Yes. Okay. Yeah, he's not going to be like a 180 target guy. That doesn't happen in the Saints offense. But does anybody think there's another fantasy-relevant wide receiver on this team? I'm afraid that Ted Ginn is going to prevent that from happening. And that was my stats. And it was from last year. Ted Ginn averaged six point six, six point seven targets per game in the games that he started and finished, including two games in the playoffs.

This was mostly after the Traquan Smith breakout. I think Ginn's still going to be a big enough part of this offense that if Alvin Kamara's getting 20% of the targets, Michael Thomas is getting 25% of the targets, and Jared Cook's getting a small share of the targets, I don't know that there's enough there for one of the young wide receivers to break out. Okay. I do like taking Traquan Smith as a late- late round flyer i think ben does too yeah yeah no i like his upside another

you know age-adjusted production guy was very good at a young age in college what i want i want to say one crazy stat about michael thomas though last year he got 85 of his passes that was an all-time record for any receiver or tight end who had more than 100 targets. Running backs obviously higher catch rates. It was also eight percentage points higher than the next highest number, which was Wes Welker a few seasons ago, which was at 77%. He caught 85%. He didn't just break the record. He absolutely shattered it.

I didn't know where to project his catch rate this year. I put him at 74%, which is even lower. His career rate now is 77%, which is equal to that Wes Welker rate of that second best season. He projected him at 77%, his career rate. It's just crazy. I think that makes total sense. That's fair. But it's also just crazy like that's that would be equivalent to the second best all-time 100 target catch rate season for a wide receiver

i mean what do you even do with his efficiency it's just otherworldly he's amazing you think drew breeze is what you do yeah i mean they're both amazing yeah they're both amazing like there's been lots lots and lots and lots of receivers that have played with Drew Brees and not had a catch rate like that. Right. Yeah, sure. They're both part of that. But yeah, Michael Thomas is great. All right.

And then Jared Cook, Heath. What are you projecting for Jared Cook? Mediocrity. I mean, he's a fine, low-end, number-one tight end that I don't want to trust. I've got him for 51 catches, 670 yards, and five touchdowns. I don't think he sees an enormous number of targets just because of what we've talked about already

with the lower pass volume and the high percentage of targets that go to Thomas and Alvin Kamara. He's a fine tight end to settle for, but not one I'm going to target. The Saints, their last three seasons, their leading tight ends were Kobe Fleener, 631 yards and three touchdowns. Then Fleener again, 295 yards and two touchdowns. And then Ben Watson, 400 yards and two touchdowns.

So it's been a while since... Ben Watson, 2015 actually, was the last fantasy relevant tight end for the saints. He was top seven. He had 74 catches, 825 yards and six touchdowns. How many pass attempts did breeze have in 2015? A million. Anybody have that?

I'm actually curious. 627. And how many do you project him for this year? 528. Yeah, there you go project him for this year? 528. There you go. Okay. Moving on to our final team. It's been a different offense the last two years.

No, I'm not. I agree. I agree. I agree. I'm not. I just think that he's, you know, he would have been top 12 last year. If you take away all the crap you want to take away, he's going to do it again this year because he's Drew Brees. If he plays 16 games, he will be top 12.

And so will every other quarterback that I have ranked in my top 16. But on a per-game basis, he'll be top 12. That's what I'm saying. I do not agree. But I'm telling you that he's Drew Brees. Of course he will. Tampa Bay was 5-11 last year. They were fourth in pass attempts, 22nd in rush attempts.

They led the NFL in passing last season. A lot of reason to be excited about Jameis Winston. Let's see. What are our stats for – oh, we don't have any Jameis stats. All right. So – We just need to talk about Ronald Jones. No, we don't need to talk about him yet.

We can't talk about Ronald Jones. No, we don't need to talk about him yet. We don't need to talk about him yet. We got to settle this. No, this team is really interesting. It's just Ronald Jones. Just Ronald Jones. All right, fine. Ben loves Ronald Jones. I said yesterday there was no player that we maybe had a bigger difference on than Ezekiel Elliott,

and it's the entire Buccaneers running back staple is the answer. Yeah, that is the answer. Ronald Jones, so here's my stat. He only got 30 touches last year. This is why I think it's crazy that everyone knows he sucks because he only got 30 touches. He barely played. He was the youngest running back in the

2018 draft. He was a second round pick. You know why he barely played, Ben? Because of a lingering hamstring injury. That's why. Yeah, because he sucked. But I see your point, man. Like, I know that Peyton Barber's nothing special. I know that.

So I'd like to see what Ronald Jones can do. 3.8 career yards per carry for a former UDFA. That's a profile of a guy that doesn't even necessarily belong in the league anymore. You know, I saw the report the other day from Greg Allman that Barber would likely lead the team in rushes. And Greg, he's with Athletic now. He's formerly of the Tampa Bay Times.

I actually had the chance to interview him a couple of times for some podcasts back in the day. I have a ton of respect for him. He's very plugged in, one of the most well-respected beat reporters out there. So I'm definitely not going to just brush that aside. And it is concerning to hear that. Like, it seems like the team still really likes Peyton Barber, but I just think Ronald Jones' talent is going to win out.

I think it has to. I just don't read their lack of investment and running back this offseason as anything positive about Peyton Barber. It's really hard to read it as anything positive about Peyton Barber and what he's done. I think they have to believe that Ronaldones still has the upside they thought they had when they took him in the second round last year um i'm changing my stat to an equation what is 3.8 divided by two is that his yards for difference between pey between Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones, right?

And also Ronald Jones' yard per carry last year. How about that? No, I have no confidence in my mocking of Ronald Jones other than how much fun it is. I do think the thing that kind of bothers me is that if I wish there were not – like Ben's argument wasn't becoming so much of the consensus again already. I do too. You go into drafts and you have to pay a lot more for Ronald Jones than you do for Peyton Barber. Ronald Jones in some drafts is a top 100 pick again already. And if there's any positive news about him the first week of training camp, he's going to be back in the sixth or seventh round.

So let's talk about Bruce Arians and his effect on your projections. any positive news about him the first week of training camp. He's going to be back in the sixth or seventh round. Let's talk about Bruce Arians and his effect on your projections. Obviously, this guy was great for the Cardinals. What does he do for the Bucs? What are you thinking here, guys? The Bucs, the last two years, and we talked about this when we talked about the Browns, they led

the NFL and Air Yards by a lot. They've been a very vertical downfield passing team. Jameis Winston has a really high average depth of target for a quarterback. So for the passing game, Bruce Arians loved to throw it down the field in Arizona as well. But I don't think he necessarily improves the situation. It was already league leading. It might actually be something to watch in terms of he might be just a little bit less aggressive than Cutter and Todd Monken were the last couple of years, just because they

were so much higher than the rest of the league. But I still think he's very good for the passing game. I think mostly the running game. And that, again, goes back to why I'm so excited about Ronald Jones. Arians, Cutter's offense basically ignored the running back. There was very little running back value in this offense. I think there's some potential for Arians offense. You know,

it's, I don't think Ron Jones is going to be David Johnson, but he has some production in his history with running backs. Okay. So Heath, what do you, what are you looking at with this team? I also don't think we're all Jones is going to be David Johnson.

234 is my stat. That's the number of targets available from last year. And they didn't really add anybody that's going to take very many of them. That's why it's very easy to love and believe in an OJ Howard breakout and a Chris Godwin breakout. The defense is terrible, maybe even worse than it was last year. They are going to have to throw the ball a ton. We could see Mike Evans be a top five wide receiver, Chris Godwin be a top 20 wide receiver, and OJ Howard be a top four tight end, and it wouldn't be all that surprising.

And yet you guys are not projecting nearly the same amount of passing yards for the buccaneers as you did so that's actually i mean i'm encouraged by that because it's not like you're saying well there's gonna pass for 5100 yards again like they did last year no you have jamis winston between 46 and 4700 depending on which uh projection like ben you actually have him projected as qb5 uh so even knocking down the passing yards from last year by four to 500, we still could see huge potential for Godwin and for Howard in particular. But yeah, the very aggressive projection, Ben QB five for Jamis Winston,

4,700 yards, 30 touchdowns. Yeah. I mean, again, it's the, it's the vertical passing game that I was talking about. That's how Mike Evans plays.

It's how Chris Godwin plays. And O.J. Howard has one of the higher average depth of targets for tight ends. A great O.J. Howard stat, 11.5 yards per target so far in his career. Gronk is the all-time tight end leader at 9.9. So he's, you know, O.J. Howard only has 80-something career targets. He's not, like, qualified for that. He's awesome. He's way above Gronk's all time yards per target rate.

Also has a 12.6% TD rate so far. He's been very, very good over the first two years. I don't think you can just expect him to maintain efficiency and shoot up his opportunity and say, Oh look, he's going to be the new Rob, Rob Gronkowski, but and his efficiency will certainly regress some.

But I think as he gets more targets, he's going to be a superstar tight end. Like there's almost no – between Ingram, Henry, and Howard, I'm most confident O.J. Howard is going to be a superstar tight end three years from now. He's just been that good over the first two years. So he's the guy that I really want to get pieces up in drafts. Really like Chris Godwin too, and I think Mike Evans is a very,

very good wide receiver one. So Winston, for me, it's just the weapons. I mean, it's a great situation. Yeah. It's so nice to be not the only person on the show to call OJ Howard a superstar. Take that, Heath. You want in? You want in?

I think he's a top five tight end this year. I think he's very, very good. I think what I took exception with was you saying he was the most talented tight end in the NFL. I definitely don't think I... Well, I may have said that. Yeah, that's exactly what you said. I probably backed off like one second later and said he's in the same group as the most talented. Possibly.

You might have. And that would have been okay. But I did. I did. He could very well be a superstar tight end this year. He could very well be the most talented tight end in the NFL. I don't think you could make... I don't think that's that crazy. He could be.

I don't think you could make the argument for him, especially, like, maybe he could become, but your argument last year was that he was. And I don't think you can make the argument that he was more talented than Travis. Based on last year was that he was. And I don't think you can make the argument that he was more talented. Based on yards per catch, he is. Based on yards per catch. More talented than Travis Kelsey.

Based on yards per catch, he absolutely is. Yards per catch is Ben's Twitter handle, by the way. I think he's special. I'm excited for him. You guys are both very excited for Mike Evans. You've made the case. More targets this year. godwin's a tough one he's so expensive yeah let's not godwin let's finish the show with godwin here are you are you tired i just want to know he's take on him are you finding yourself taking him a lot i i keep missing him because he goes so high like i'm not getting

enough of him but i i do really like him. I get him occasionally, but it's rare. He does – like he's crept into the end of the third round under draft that I've done. He's almost always gone in the fourth. And I think that's pretty close to where he belongs, but there are just other wide receivers that I have ranked in that same range like Calvin Ridley. Or the Rams receivers. That are available cheaper, yeah. Yeah, I can't take Chris Godwin ahead of Brandon cooks and that happens sometimes.

It does happen. Yeah. It's wild. And I just want to mention one, one of my favorite deep sleepers this year, really deep, but Justin Watson, if he earns their slot job,

he can be really good. He's a solid player. And I, I was under the impression that when they went three wide, Godwin was going to play in the slot, but I agree completely. If Watson earns that job, it could be fun. Yeah. It sounds like that's going to be the case. the slot. But I agree completely. If Watson earns that job, it could be fun.

Yeah, it sounds like that's going to be the case. Fellas, thank you very much. I'm going to talk to you guys in about an hour and a half. We're going to do the West, the AFC West and the NFC West. For those of you listening right now, thanks for sticking around to the end. I hope you've been enjoying these projection pods. I think they've been super helpful. And we've got one more coming up for you.

If you don't hear from us before Friday, have a great 4th of July. Our next episode is going to air on Thursday, on July 4th. For Heath Cummings and Ben Gretsch, I'm Adam Azer. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.