Fantasy Football Today - 07/11: McCaffrey a Bust? Gordon a Holdout? Plus Rankings Disputes!

Episode Date: July 11, 2019

Melvin Gordon has threatened to hold out. We start the show with a "if you were drafting right now" discussion about Gordon and what the LAC backfield would look like if he weren't on the team. Then we read a GREAT email about Christian McCaffrey (5:55) and why he might disappoint Fantasy owners this season ... News and notes (12:00) including an item on the PIT backfield. And then we're putting the LAR WRs under a microscope (19:40). Who is our favorite? Are they all super safe? Will Cooper Kupp continue to dominate in the red zone? ... We've got some rankings disputes as Dave tells you why he has Andrew Luck as his QB1 (26:40), Heath tells you why he's the highest on Leonard Fournette (29:50) and Jamey tells you why he's the highest on Julian Edelman (39:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Melvin Gordon, 14 or more fantasy points in non-PPR,

16 or more fantasy points in PPR every week before missing weeks 13, 14, and 15. He's threatening to hold out. He wants either a new contract or a trade. And I believe he's moving down in the rankings. Isn't that right, Dave Richard? He is moving down. You can say goodbye to round one, Melvin Gordon. For now.

For now. If we were drafting today. It seems maybe a touch drastic. What's drastic? Moving him down or what he's doing? No, moving him down out of the first round based on this demand. I think it's drastic what he's doing. Deciding now in the middle of July

to hold out. I think it's really, really smart. Seriously. You think it's smart or you're being sarcastic? No. It's more smart and justified than what happened with Bell last year. He's made $10 million in his entire career. He's making $5 million this year as opposed to like a $16 million figure. He's had three knee injuries, and he's on a team that has Super Bowl aspirations.

Why do this now then? Why not do it before minicamp? They tried to do it before because they couldn't work out a contract situation, so they were having negotiations earlier. That's why he reported to mandatory minicamp, and negotiations apparently fell apart. Well, whether it's smart for him or not,

if you're drafting right now... That's absolutely smart for him. If you're drafting right now, is he a first-round pick? Dave says no. Yeah. I think probably I would not. I think he will be a first round pick i think someone will take him in the first 12 he's a he's a one two turn guy for me now he'll be right back in the first round once he's got a team and a contract and he's happy but like you just gotta i think if

he's if he's a holdout day one of camp then it changes things right now he's still first round yeah he's not the first guy to ask for a new contract. Obviously, the Le'Veon Bell thing is spooking us, right? There's most likely speculation he's going to get the deal done. Right. Well, I guess we have plenty of time to react to it, but if you're doing a best ball

draft right now, are you throwing down a lot more on Austin Eckler or a lot earlier on Austin Eckler? On Jenkins also. Jackson. Jackson. Jackson, excuse me. Well, so I looked at the breakdown of the four games

that Melvin Gordon missed. Eckler only played three of those games. He had 17, 18, and 17 touches in those three games. Jackson didn't really have huge involvement. In the first game, he basically was uninvolved. The second game without Melvin Gordon, he did have eight carries,

63 yards and a touchdown. Uh, Eckler had 13 carries and five catches in that game. The second game without Gordon, uh, well, the third game without Gordon, rather Jackson at seven carries,

Eckler at 15. And then the final game without Melvin Gordon doesn't, I mean, that was Justin Jackson at 16 carries, 58 yards at a touchdown, but Eckler missed that game. So, yeah, I mean, Eckler still got more work. And again, 17, 18, and 17 touches in three games without Melvin Gordon. It's pretty interesting.

There's already rumors that the next running back for the Chargers, if they move on from Melvin Gordon, which, again, a lot of ballgame left before that happens, is currently in Buffalo. And that Anthony Lynn is a big fan of LaShawn McCoy and that they could trade something cheap for him and use him this year and then find another running back next year.

The track record of the Chargers replacing running backs via the draft after they've run their course is pretty, it's clear as day. Melvin Gordon was the guy who replaced Ryan Matthews after five years. Ryan Matthews is the guy who replaced LaDainian Tomlinson after 11 years. This franchise has done a good job of holding on to running backs who are productive, and then as soon as the productivity wanes or dips or injuries are a concern, they move on.

That's why I don't see them spending a ton. It's got to be a team-friendly deal. Sure. It's the only way Melvin's staying. All right. Well, he wants big-time money, and we will see if he gets it. So welcome to the show, everybody. This is Fantasy Football Today, our final show of the week.

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which would be really helpful. We'd love for you to help us get our Spotify rating up a little bit, so please do that for us. And also CBS Sports HQ. You guys are going five days a week on HQ on July, what, 22nd? 22nd. So that's pretty cool. That's pretty close.

That's noon Eastern, CBS Sports HQ. You can watch these dudes on video. I'll probably pop on every now and then. Oh, you'll pop on a lot. Live from noon to 1 Eastern. And then we also have what should be pretty cool is a training camp show starting that same day at 4.30 Eastern. Oh, nice. All right, great.

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We have an email of the day. That is such a good email. I mean, round of applause. Cooper from the place where league champions reside. Do we have a place for that or just? I assume Boston. I was going to assume Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Fantasy League champions. None of us reside in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. We work in Fort Lauderdale. We're residing there right now. No. That's not how it works. The subject line is Christian McCaffrey is going to be a bust this year

and all the stats prove it. It's really good. It is a long, well-thought-out email. And the gist of it, he says also, deer, rain, white-tailed, mule, and roe. Those are all deers. Or deer.

The gist of it is this. Cam Newton got hurt. He had some shoulder soreness in week seven. But he got hurt on a hit by J.J. W Newton got hurt. He had some shoulder soreness in week seven, but he got hurt on a hit by TJ Watt against the Steelers in week 10. And if you look at Christian McCaffrey's stats before that hit and Christian McCaffrey's stats after that hit, you're talking about the difference between the number nine running back in fantasy and the number one running back in fantasy. The targets went up. The yards per carry and the yards per running back in fantasy. The targets went up.

The yards per carry and the yards per catch went up. Touchdowns went way up. Some of it may be fluky. Some of it may be explained by a change in Cam Newton. I won't go through all the stats, but here's like the fantasy point breakdown. In non-PPR, 13.625 points per game before Cam's game before Watts hit on Cam, I should say. After, from 13.62 to 22.8. In PPR, 19.75 PPR points per game to 30.3 PPR fantasy points per game.

I went back. I checked all the work. It's 95% right. So great email from Cooper in Fort Lauderdale. What's wrong? What's wrong is that he said, this is kind of a common mistake. He said that McCaffrey was RB9, I think, or RB10 based on his pre-cam injury stats.

But he counted Christian McCaffrey in that group, like what McCaffrey did. So really, if you're going to do that, if you're going to recount McCaffrey, you have to take the actual Christian McCaffrey out of the list. So he was one spot too low on him, if that makes sense.

And yeah, what do you guys think about that? Like maybe Cam couldn't throw the ball downfield and McCaffrey got more targets and more production, and he got more carries. He certainly got more carries. Also, this was not included in the email, but before that hit, they were 6-2. In the final six games that Cam Newton played,

including the one in which he got hit, they were 0-6. So yeah, what do you make of that? Is Christian McCaffrey going to be a bust? I don't think so. I just look at what his role is in this offense and maybe by a byproduct of Cam not being 100%, but it's hard to quantify what level of health he was at. Clearly he was not the same guy,

but was he 85% of himself? Was he 50% of himself? Was he 20% of himself? what level of health he was at. Clearly, he was not the same guy, but was he 85% of himself? Was he 50% of himself? Was he 20% of himself? And how much did that lend itself to also him dumping the ball off to McCaffrey Moore? I mean, you know what he's going to be in terms of a rusher. I think that was proven last season.

So you're banking on that. It sounds like... What's his name? The emailer? Doug. Cooper. Cooper. Who the hell is Doug?

He's going to downgrade him to a late first-round pick. He's still a first-round pick. He's at eight or nine at running back. I think it's a very good email. It's food for thought. And I would be interested in moving Christian McCaffrey down if I didn't already have him fourth and Melvin Gordon had been fifth. This email wasn't quite as moving as the Melvin Gordon holdout was for me. So I think he's the number four running back.

And this gives me a little bit of pause about putting him ahead of any of those guys. Doesn't it make you feel a little more optimistic about Christian McCaffrey after what he did in the second half of last season when he took on more work? And maybe the Panthers asked him, hey, put on a little more weight. You saw the pictures of his arms. Guy's bigger now than he's ever been. And maybe that's to take on more work and to have more carries and to do more. So yeah, the stats say exactly what Connor says

or Cooper says. Cooper. Doug. Cooper, Doug, I should clarify. It was really more the catches than the carries. His 16-game pace in the first eight games was 218 carries and 98 catches. His 16-game pace in the last six games, 227 carries,

so only nine more, but 139 catches. And the touchdowns, right? And the touchdowns were the big... He was on pace for 22 total touchdowns in those last six games. So that certainly is one way or another it's fluky, but it certainly changed the fantasy point total. So last thing on this. After Cam Newton took that hit from TJ Watt, his Cam Newton's carries went way down,

as pointed out by Cooper Doug in this email. Cam Newton went from 9.13 rush attempts per game to 4.7 rush attempts per game. Big difference there. I'm a little bit concerned. A little concerned that Cam doesn't run quite as much. Which would be, I guess, good for McCaffrey in this sense. Yes, it would be. I do think that there's a chance that Cam has his best passing season ever.

Okay. Which would probably also be good for McCaffrey. All right. Well, anyway, think about it, everybody. Great email from Cooper. And today on the show, we're going to do some rankings disputes. We're going to read some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We're also going to put a player under the microscope in just a bit.

Actually, three players all on the same team. Here's some news and notes for you. The Jaguars signed West Virginia wide receiver Marcus Sims. The supplemental draft was yesterday and Sims did not get drafted, but he did get signed afterwards. There's a little bit of

buzz on him, I guess. Any dynasty interest in Marcus Sims? Nope. Gotta be deep, deep, deep. I've got leagues with 40-plus roster spots. I might look at him there. Okay. How about Andy Reid talking about Damian Williams being the starter? He seems pretty got some conviction in that,

that Damian Williams is the starter. Yes. Coach likes player. I mean, again, who else would he say is going to be the starter? But he doesn't have to say it like this, I think. He can say, well, we like Damian, but we brought in Carlos. Which is what I've said before. And after what Damian Williams did to end last season,

how could they not have him open camp as the starter? Okay. I guess the general question is, do you think that Andy Reid's comments about Damian Williams should change your mind a little bit, make you a little more optimistic about him? I think Damian Williams' play and role in this offense is what makes me want to take him. I mean, it would depend on,

if you were still thinking it was going to be a competition, then yeah, I think it should. Jack Doyle is not rushing back from kidney surgery. So that was an off-season surgery that he had. He lost 20 pounds. He's taking it slowly. And obviously, Jack Doyle heavily influences Eric Ebron's fantasy value. Should we be considering this right now?

Everything I've seen indicates they expect Jack Doyle to be a full go. If that changes, then yes, it would definitely change my mind. But I don't think he has health concerns right now. It's just that he's regaining the weight. Jeremy Garoppolo should be full go for training camp. Cam Newton should be full go for training camp. And there was an article on ESPN.com about the Steelers' backfield that's really worth discussing.

Jalen Samuels, according to this Jeremy Fowler article, he didn't give a breakdown of the splits, who's going to get what. But this is going to be more of a committee than what we're used to seeing. Did you guys see the article? What was your reaction to it? I know, Jamie, you and I talked about it offline. And just Jalen Samuels' role and what it could mean for not only him, but James Conner as well. I mean, he's going to play. It's just a matter of what role he's going to play and how much it's going to take away from Conner. There's too much.

It's the same thing. If you're going to put stock into what Andy Reid is saying, which you should as the coach, you have to take into account what the reports are and what the players are saying themselves. And so while Conner's going to be the featured guy, he's still going to be the dominant guy in this Pittsburgh offense. They bring in a former member of the NC State staff who knows Samuels that they got production out of him last year. I think they've kind of realized that the

NFL has changed. It's it's not necessarily give a guy 400 touches anymore, and James Conner's not letting him out. So I think you just have to understand that you still take Conner in some semblance of the late first, early second round, depending on your preference on him. It's still worth taking a chance on Jalen Samuels, maybe even a later chance on Benny Snell, just in case

Conner goes down. But they're going to play these guys. I mean, it's just the nature of the Steelers that we know is going to change. Could change 10 percent. It could change 50 percent. But there's obvious reason to believe that James Conor is not going to be what Le'Veon Bell was. Yeah, I just think it's fun because like every week now we're getting a new quote from James Conor that says something a little bit different. It was only eight days ago that he said, I'm going to have a similar role to last year. My guess is his agent

told him to shut up. Because him saying, oh, I'm not going to be the same guy lowers his value. He had 270 carries, or 270 touches in 13 games last year. It's about 21 touches per game. I'd say it's probably what he gets

for the season. Yeah. Yeah. Which definitely puts him in the conversation of a first-round pick. For sure. This isn't a reason to run away from James Conner.

It's just a matter of are you comparing Conner to, let's just say, Melvin Gordon is reporting week one of training camp or by week three of training camp, and he's fine. David Johnson, Joe Mixon, those guys, you just have to sort of stack it up against them. Well, based on last season, if Jalen Samuels has an increased role, you would probably expect it to hurt James Connors receiving production more so than his rushing production, right? Yeah, he's not catching. Yes, but also they've got like we don't think anyone's getting 180 targets like Antonio Brown. There may just be a few more passes that go to the running backs.

Sure. I guess what I was saying was if this has an effect on Connor, maybe it's comparing him to wide receivers in the first round rather than other running backs. Everything. I mean, it changes just whatever you're... I'm 100% a James Connor guy, just downgrade to 95.

Jalen Samuels, by the way, in the PPR draft that we did two days ago, he went about 128th overall. What do you think about that? It's fine. Yep. It's not like a steal or anything? It's just fine?

It's fine. Yeah, I wouldn't upgrade him tremendously either. Because I don't think if James Conner... The problem with Samuels, and we've got some other... Austin Eckler's a little bit like this as well, I think. If James Conner goes down, you don't have 20 touch upside in Jalen Samuels. He's going to share with Vinny Snell.

Would you rather have Jalen Samuels or— That comes down to Snell, I think. Jalen Samuels or Duke Johnson? Samuels. Samuels for now. Duke. They went pretty close together, about five picks apart in that draft that we did. We're going to talk about that draft next week.

Rob Gronkowski participated in a private workout with Tom Brady, according to MassLive. Anybody drafted Rob Gronkowski in the tight end favored Scott Fishbowl? No. What if it's round 22? Have you seen pictures of Gronk lately? I just saw a video of him. He's dropped like 40 pounds.

He has lost some weight, but it's not like he's stickly. He's not playing football anymore. Round 22. Last pick. Total throwaway pick. It's him or some sixth-round rookie or something? No. All right.

Okay, let's say that they make Die Hard 6. Die Hard 5 was so bad, right? What was it? No, no. Live Free or Die Hard was good. A Great Day to Die Hard. Something terrible. The one in Russia.

That's the one that goes to Russia? Yeah. I actually watched Live Free or Die Hard last night. It's good. It's fun. It's, yeah. It's fun. It's fun.

It's fun. It's fun. Him, the scene in the tractor trailer. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The semi, whatever you call it, was so ludicrous. Ridiculous. And Die Hard 3 has some of that too. Die Hard 3 has just some ridiculous stunts.

Obviously, he couldn't pull off. He becomes kind of a superhero. He plays games in Die Hard 3. It's ridiculous. The games are fun. No, they're not. Die Hard 4 is a good movie. What's his name?

Timothy Oliphant? He's a good villain. He's very good. Justin Long is a good addition. It's a good movie. Die Hard 5 is terrible. If they made Die Hard 6, would you rather kind of old Bruce Willis or skinny Gronk as the main character? Kind of old Bruce Willis.

I think they'd be great teaming up. Why do I have to pick one? They should do is make Bruce Willis a terrorist. Like he goes back to Nakatomi Tower and he robs the building. Let's give Bruce Willis all the lines and Gronk all the action. And I think it could be a good pairing. So Gronk is a stuntman. Yes.

Yes. Gronk has a really bad Bruce Willis stuntman. All right. Let's put a player under the microscope here. And we're putting three of them under the microscope because Dave said something interesting on the show two days ago that stood out. Let's explore that a little bit.

He said that Robert Woods, I think, was the one that concerned you the most of the three Rams receivers. Is that what you said? That's what I said. All right. I want to know why. So let's put all three Rams receivers. Is that what you said? That's what I said. All right. I want to know why. So let's put all three Rams wide receivers under a microscope. And how do you guys rank them right now?

Cooks, Woods, Cup. I flip Cooks and Woods and PPR, but otherwise the same. I think, didn't somebody send us an email or a tweet or something that I saw somewhere that Cooks and Woods are actually better with Cup on the field? I think, didn't somebody send us an email or a tweet or something that I saw somewhere that Cooks and Woods are actually better with Cup on the field? Is that based on last year? Yeah, it has to be. They all did great last year.

Well, the thing is, Jared Goff just played like garbage after, other than the Kansas City game. He didn't throw the ball that much. No, Cup got hurt the game before the Kansas City game. He didn't throw the ball that much. No, Kup got hurt the game before the Kansas City game. I know, I know, I know. But it was after that game when Kup started to, or Goff started to play bad. That's what I'm saying. Like, everybody's numbers were better before Kup's injury.

I don't know that I really agree with that take. I understand the numbers say that. I'm not sure that I agree with it. I'm not sure it's predictive. Well, let me just start by saying that all three of them are in my top 24. I'm totally happy in getting Robert Woods.

I just think Cooper Cup has that red zone aura about him that Jared Goff finds. And I think Brandon Cooks, when it comes to boomer bust receivers, he's probably at the top of the list. I did go back and look at the game. Like, if you take out the game where Cooks got hurt really early and didn't even get a target in the whole game,

and you just look at the games where all three wide receivers played, Cooks actually led the team in targets. Not by much, though, right? It was pretty close. No, it was really, really close. Yeah, yeah. Depending on how you want to do the Cooper Cup numbers,

he played eight games. Jamie, this is what you and I disagree on. He played eight games. I give him seven healthy games. He played six healthy games. Six full games. Yeah. In one of the games, though, he played 38% of the snaps and he had no catches. It's probably

looking like a bad game. But if you just take his seven healthy games, Jamie says six, I say seven. My numbers would probably be even worse. It's 91 catches, 1,300 yards, and 11 touchdowns if you give him 16 games based on those seven games. I don't remember the catches and yards, but I do know of the six games he scored 16 touchdowns. So, yeah, he was great.

They were all great. Robert Woods was 10th in non-PPR, 11th in PPR. Brandon Cooks was 14th in non-PPR, 13th in PPR. And Kup only played eight games, got hurt in two of them. And he still scored five touchdowns. And he just owns the red zone. Do you feel like that will happen again? He had 12 red zone targets in those eight games, which is really like seven based on injuries.

And last year, he had 23 red zone targets, which was third in the NFL Cooper Cup. I mean, look, a big part of this could be how much work they give Gurley inside the 5. Or inside the 10. Or in the red zone in general. Just going red zone touches. Because if his, what, 17 touchdowns come down and nobody else takes them?

Yeah, and not only that, I think he led the team in red zone targets, actually. Todd Gurley. He had 19. He led the team. Brandon Cooks had 17. He also was tied with Cooks for the most targets inside the 10-yard line with 8. Todd Gurley. That's pretty interesting. Like I said, Cup would have beaten

them. Cup had 7 targets inside the 10-yard line. Played half a season. Todd Gurley and Brandon Cooks led the team with 8 targets inside the 10-yard line. How many did Woods have? Woods had also eight. Sorry. So it was eight, eight, eight, and seven.

Gerald Everett had six, and Josh Reynolds had five. But Robert Woods only had 12 red zone targets compared to 19 for Gurley, 17 for Cooks. Well, are they all safe? Or do any of them feel risky to you? I worry a little bit about Cup

just because I worry a little bit about anyone that reliant on touchdowns. I like the fact that he's been so factored in the red zone the last two seasons. I thought you were going to come out and say you were worried about Cup coming off the injury. Well, I think that's fine, too. If he's on the pup list to start training camp

and it takes him three weeks to get going, then yeah, I would worry about Cup. But he only scored five times in 15 games as a rookie. But he had a lot of looks. Yeah, 23 red zone targets. Right, right. I asked about these three guys on our Fantasy Football Today Facebook group, by the way. So it's pretty split.

And please join the Facebook group. It's obviously free. And I put a picture of an animal ramming someone. I thought it was a ram, but it might not be a ram. So feel free to weigh in on that as well. But we got about 50 comments on it. Everybody likes them all. But a lot of people, I was surprised I saw some love

for Cooper Cup as number one. And that seems risky, especially coming off the torn ACL. Yeah. Yeah, I've got Cooks one. You have Cooks one, huh? Same. Oh, you have Cooks one, right? Not Cup. Yeah. Nope. Cooks, Cup, Woods for me, but again,

they're very close together. Is there anything that we don't like about Robert Woods? He's basically been the steadiest receiver in fantasy for a year and a half, right? Yeah. He's been just as consistent as Brandon Cooks. So if I'm going to sit here and say, well, Brandon Cooks is one of the best boomer bus receivers in fantasy, then you've got to be able to say the exact same thing about Robert Woods. It's not like Woods was 30 points one week and then four the next week.

To me, he and Cooks, they're different types of receivers, but last year in fantasy, they produced practically the same rate. Well, I'm satisfied. We put three players under an awfully big microscope, and they get drafted in similar rounds. Cup seems to be the touchdown guy. I would say that Cup probably has the best chance to have a bad game. You know, if you just look at, like, useless games, Cup had more of those than Woods and Cooks when they were all healthy.

But, you know, those touchdowns seemed to save him. And there you go. Those are the Rams wide receivers under a microscope. Got some rankings disputes and your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. And here we go. Let's go to the rankings disputes. I got one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, and a tight end. Very clever.

Dave, you have Andrew Luck number one at quarterback. How about that? Jamie has Luck third. Heath has Luck fourth. Dave, Andrew Luck, the best quarterback in fantasy? Yes. Thank you. That was my argument. I love

what they've done with the offense. I love that they're going to be at ridiculously full strength. I totally buy into Frank Reich and his play calling the offensive line speaks for itself. It's a top three unit in the league and luck is just a maestro back there. And the defense hasn't gotten that much better. So I think we're still going to see the Colts in a lot of high scoring shootouts. I don't think Marlon Mack's going to take over as being the focal point of the offense by any stretch. He'll get his numbers.

The run game will get its numbers. But Andrew Luck, to me, just with all the weapons that they've added and kept, is going to be impossible to stop. He was fourth last year. He was hurt in 2017. 2016, he played 15 games, and he was fourth. Although, by my math, he still would have finished fourth if he had played that 16th game at the same pace.

See, he's always fourth. But he was number one in 2014. He was the number one quarterback. He threw for 4,700 yards, 4,761, with 40 touchdown passes. He'll beat those numbers. Which probably would have been fourth this year. Well, he wasn't too different, because 4,600 yards and 39 touchdown passes

with 15 interceptions for Andrew Luck, that made him the number four quarterback. It's a hell of a year. It wasn't much worse than 2014, but he went from number one to number four. He also didn't rush. He also had no rushing touchdowns last year. He had three of those when he was the number one quarterback in 2014. And I don't know. Part of that could be a little bit unlucky,

and it could be that after what they've been through with his injury, they're just not going to put him in those type of run situations. I've got him projected for one. I think you have to expect his pass volume is going to come down a little bit. He was, I think, second in the league in attempts behind only Roethlisberg. 639 was a career high for him. And I do think that defense has improved some. I think it's dramatically different. So defense?

Yeah. I've dropped him down to 620 and I kind of feel like that might still be too high. But he's going to be good. He'll be insanely efficient. You can give him 575, and he'll still be lights out. Well, he's never really been. In 2016, he was well above average in terms of yards per attempt, but he's never had an eight yards per attempt season like we saw six or seven or eight quarterbacks do last year.

So it would be something new for him. He does throw a few interceptions. I'll add do last year. So it would be something new for him. And he does throw a few interceptions. I'll add one last thing. And when the offseason opened, Mahomes was my number one. And when Tyreek Hill got in hot water, that changed. So if Tyreek Hill doesn't have a suspension, how can you go against Mahomes as number one? Right.

So then luck would be my two. Okay. Next rankings dispute. Let's go to our running back. It's Leonard Fournette. So kind of different on where you guys are. Not too different, but Heath, you're the high guy on Leonard Fournette. Jamie's got him 12th in both formats.

Dave has Fournette 15th in both non-PPR and PPR. You've got Fournette 11th in non-PPR and 10th in PPR. So, yeah, you're the high guy on Fournette, Heath. Discuss. Yeah, and I have not. Like, there are certain players that I have downgraded due to injury risk. He is not one of them, and that might be why I've got him higher. This is where I've got him projected.

But I do think it's an excellent opportunity and an offense that should be more creative he's been a workhorse back in like he only played 13 games in 2017 and he still had over 300 touches he's been pretty good in the passing game and they have not replaced tj yeldon i know dave you said they've talked about how they'd like to if they replace tj yeldon in some way with with an okay back then I might lower his catch total a little bit but right now it looks to me like a guy that's going to be one of a handful of true feature backs in the NFL that uh I might even be a little too low on him I get that and it's sickening to think about Alfred Blue taking touches away from Leonard Fournette, which is, I don't want it to be the case.

To me, it's Fournette not being able to stay healthy. That's the whole thing. I just don't want to deal with that. And look at what he did last year in PPR. He averaged over 14 points per game. It's very tough to look at that and say, oh, he's a bust this year. But I'd rather go with running backs who I think can hold up a little bit longer. So do you have Dalvin Cook ahead of him?

Yes, which also concerns me a little bit because I say almost the exact same thing about Dalvin Cook. We don't know if he can do it for 16 games. At least with Fournette, I think he can do it for 13 games. I'm not even sure if Dalvin can do it for 13 again. It's tough to know which of these running, because it's hard to find running backs that don't have injury concerns at this range. Sure.

The other issue I have with Fournette is that Jacksonville got a quarterback, and they also got an offensive coordinator that's known for throwing. I could see them getting away from being too run heavy. I have them projected doing that. I just don't have... What do you have as far as run-pass ratio? Do you have that percentage? Yeah, it's like 55-56% pass. Yeah, that's fine.

But I still have Fournette getting close to the most touches in the NFL. 54 on 16. If Jacksonville has their way, they're going to get back to what they were in 2017, no matter who the quarterback is. So I think you look at they led the NFL in rushing attempts that season. I think that's what they want to get from Fournette. Then they hired the wrong guy.

I don't know if they hired the wrong guy because I think it's still Tom Coughlin. It's still him trickle down, whatever it is, how much influence he has, going to practice every day. They hired a guy who knows Nick Foles. That, I think, is to make him comfortable know so whether that changes how the offense goes i look at a few things one he seems more dedicated than he's ever been going away to wyoming doing the whole training regimen uh didn't lose some weight uh i think he looked better i don't know what he weighed in as but you're talking about a guy that went from his team basically writing him off to

they've accepted him back in their good graces. They didn't do anything in the offseason, in my opinion, from a threatening standpoint to him. Whether they still do that or not, that remains to be seen. But Alfred Blue and Rock Armstead are not guys that are going to threaten him in the capacity of some of these other backfields that we see. And then you get the offensive line. And this, to me, is the biggest thing for him.

Because last year, that line was just a complete, it wasn't complete shambles. You know, you lose the center, you lose the left guard, you use left tackle. All of them suffer significant injuries. They're all back healthy. It should be a very good offensive line on top of the fact that they add Juwan Taylor at the right tackle spot. Now, if he's not healthy, that changes things, which is why he felt the second round. But if they got a steal very similar to what happened to them with Miles Jack. It's almost parallel. Jack was expected to be a top-ten pick.

He falls the second round because of concerns over health. Taylor was supposed to be the first tackle off the board. He falls the second round because of health. So if they get that type of player who could be first-round talent and a starting offensive lineman, one of the better right tackles in football, which he could be, that just makes things that much better. So I think Fournette has so many things going in his favor. We get involved with this a lot, one side or the other,

where the perception of what a player did a year ago influences how we look at them the next season. And it's totally understandable. But I think you look at Fournette's situation. And let's just say Melvin Gordon got traded. Let's say the Chargers decided to trade Melvin Gordon for Leonard Fournette. Melvin Gordon might be the number one overall pick. Why?

Because you think they would just ride him into the ground? Huh? Because you think they would just give him a ton of carries? He's going to get so much work. The running back in Jacksonville, if he stays healthy, he's going to get so much work. Can he stay healthy? Can he stay healthy with all that work?

That's a huge concern. But like you said, when you start to look at these guys, David Johnson prior to last year wasn't able to play 16 games the previous two seasons. You know James Conner, what his injury situation is. Obviously now, we don't know Le'Veon Bell, how he's going to respond after

sitting out a season. Even Melvin Gordon. He's had health issues. Melvin Gordon's had health issues. Well, there's one guy that I have to ask about here, because you must be more concerned about this guy's health issues than Leonard Fournette's, because you all have Fournette ranked ahead of Todd Gurley. And in my opinion, there's no excuse for that unless you just think that Gurley's knee injury is more significant than anything that Fournette's dealing with. I don't want to take a running back that's got a knee injury that's going to have to be managed.

Yeah, the difference for me, even if you think they're both as likely to miss time, is I don't think there's a chance that Todd Gurley gets 20, 25 touches a game. He will get a couple of games with that, but not per game. He will be so much better per touch, though, than Leonard Fournette. I would think so. So much better. He's the running back that he was last year. The end of last year, you're saying.

Because last year he was still... The most recent version of him we saw. Well, I think another one is comparing Fournette to Chubb. Because Chubb's got basically a 10-game window of being the guy. And then there's a mystery. Yeah. Sure. I think Kareem Hunt's

just going to depend on how Chubb's doing. If Chubb isn't great, then Kareem Hunt's just going to depend on how Chubb's doing. If Chubb isn't great, then it's still dropping a young former league rusher into the mix of potentially doing nothing it's nothing. I mean, everybody drafting Nick Chubb in the second round should be hoping it's nothing. But you can't, unless you're in the mind right now of GM, coach, offense coordinator, which none of us are, and what their game plan is, we have no idea what they're planning for Kareem Hunt. Sure.

And so that uncertainty of Cornette. But if Nick Chub uh goes out and dominates you know right if he picks up where he left off last year you also have to you also have to consider as maybe the rams showed us by just the the nature of it if they start to realize we're we're going to make a deep playoff run and now we have this guy to maybe take a little bit of the load off of Nick Chubb. Again, it could be five carries a week. It could be 10, you know, or they just start to work him back in to make him ready for the playoffs as well. It could be 30% of the snaps where he's playing in a passing situation. In whatever capacity.

So yeah, there's something there. Again, I'll, I'll, I'll, optim, you want to have him do nothing. But there is the question mark that you have to take into account with Nick Chubb, which is the question we get about him all the time. You can sit here and say Nick Chubb will get a 10-game head start and could be the NFL leading rusher by that point. He could be the best running back in fantasy by that point. But he is being challenged to whatever degree by a guy who's extremely talented, factoring now into the mix. We have no idea. It could be that Kareem Hunt does absolutely nothing and is a break glass in case of emergency type of guy. But he could also be 30% of the snaps.

He could be 50% of the snaps. We just don't know. It's all going to hinge on Sean. And so this isn't a Nick Chubb conversation, but it's comparing Nick Chubb to if both guys play 16 games, who's better at the end of the season in their current situations? It's hard to argue that Fournette will not be better. They might be one and two in fantasy. But Fournette, barring a trait, and we saw the Jaguars do this last year,

we know that the Browns are getting challenged. They're bringing a challenge into the mix. Yeah, I just want to say one thing. We can't completely overlook that Leonard Fournette's average 3.7 yards per carry through two seasons. He might not be that good. He might just be a high-volume guy. Now, Melvin Gordon was under 4 yards per carry through his first three seasons,

and then he averaged 5.1, I think, last year. So I certainly see everything Jamie said about the offensive line. I certainly see a possibility for much more production on a per-carry basis for Fournette, but so far he hasn't been that good. I know that Dave and Jamie have some HQ responsibilities, so Dave has to hop off now. Jamie, what's your...

Oh, we have time. Ten minutes. Okay. Well, let's get to our next one then. And that would be Julian Edelman. And I just found it interesting that Jamie has Julian Edelman 13th in non-PPR, whereas Dave has him 16th, and Heath has Edelman 19th in non-PPR. It's

much closer in PPR. 12th for Jamie, 14th for Dave, and 14th for Heath. But, Jamie, I thought it was interesting that you had Edelman 19th in non-PPR. It's much closer in PPR. 12th for Jamie, 14th for Dave, and 14th for Heath. But, Jamie, I thought it was interesting that you had Edelman just outside the top 12, 13th in non-PPR. I just look at what the targets are going to be without Gronk there and the role that he's going to play. And I don't have the numbers in front of me anymore, but what he's been able to do with Gronk not on the field

is fairly impressive. I don't know if you looked at the Adam. I can find it if you want. I'm sorry? I don't think it was that much different. It was really Josh Gordon who had the big difference without Gronk on the field, but I will see what I've got. Over the last few years,

Edelman's been a lot better without Gronk. I found it. In 17 games that he's played without Gronk in his career, 117 catches, 1,330 yards, and five touchdowns. Now, the touchdowns obviously are alarming, but as Heath would say about Cooper Cup, I think if anybody's touching the ball that many times,

the chances for his touchdown numbers to increase, and he doesn't have to go from five to 15 because that's not going to happen, but that's basically a season's worth of numbers, and if you're getting 117 catches, you're probably scoring at least seven times like Juju did a year ago. Well, that's basically a season's worth of numbers. And if you're getting 117 catches, you're probably scoring at least seven times like Juju did a year ago. Well, that's that's where we're different because

it's I'm certain I've got him projected for fewer touchdowns than Jamie would. You don't think he could score seven? I've got him projected for six. I think he could score seven. Okay, so if he's getting 1300 and six 1300 yards and six touchdowns. I don't have him projected for 1300 yards. I'm just saying that's what his numbers have been without Gronk on the field.

You know, I just, it's such an unproven receiving core and this is factoring, you know, Josh Gordon not playing, but with, with what they have, you know, we can sit here and say Nikhil Harry can be a star and you know, the, the other Phil Dorsett and the other guys that they added could be great. What Brady and Edelman do together and the rapport that they Dorsett and the other guys that they added could be great. What Brady and Edelman do together and the rapport that they have in an offense that's so dependent on the quarterback and the receiver being in sync because of how Edelman plays out of the slot, it's just I don't look at the guys I have ranked behind him as having the same type of upside.

Look, he's an older receiver. He's played a lot of games. He's had some injuries. We know that. But what he did from week five on last year was pretty special, and I think that has a chance to continue given Gronk's absence. I think if you look at the last five years, you can see examples of both Jamie's ranking being justified in mind.

In 2015 and 2018, he averaged eight yards per target, scored seven touchdowns in nine games, six in 12. In 2013— Which two years was that? 15 and 18. And 18, Gronk was slowing down, right? Yeah. Oh, no, that was last year.

Last year, yeah. Obviously, he was not the same player. In 16 and 14, he scored four and three touchdowns, averaged seven yards per target, which he has for most of his career. In 2015, Gronk was healthy. So the yards per target might be the bigger thing, because if he's getting 150 targets, that might be the difference there in 15 fantasy points. Do you think

there's any chance, Julian, like a realistic chance that Edelman scores 10 touchdowns? No. Not realistic. I mean, that would be at his age. Probably not, right? It's hard to expect it, yeah. That's why I don't love his non-PPR upside because of that. All right, so Jamie is out of here.

Yep, got to go back. And Heath and I will read some emails to finish the show. I was going to debate David Njoku, but Heath would have nobody to debate against. So Dave is the one who's super low comparatively on Njoku. He's in 14th compared to 9th for Heath and Jamie alright you ready for some emails Heath is walking around

the studio he is not answering my question but I know he can hear me he's closing the door did Jamie leave without closing the door the funny thing is like you know I can hear you but I can't respond my mic doesn't go with me right of course yeah yeah so I couldn't say anything well i figured that out mid-sentence but yes jamie was born in a barn well how can he not close the door that's terrible etiquette uh ralph from a town

named davy uh that's davy in florida my question to you all is that i have a league with a full ppr lineup but here are some of the positions. It's quarterback, one running back, two wide receivers slash tight end, and then two flex. So you don't have to start any tight ends.

Most of the pros always mention about putting priority on getting a top tight end, but how should I approach my draft when I actually don't have to start any tight ends? I wouldn't put the priority on it. would still view kelsey as a late second round pick i would still view urts as an early third round pick and kittle as a late third or early fourth round pick i think ingram howard and henry fall down to more like the seventhth, 8th, 9th range in terms of value. And I'm not sure in full PPR there's another tight end I'd want to draft.

That's based on 12 teams when he's giving those rounds, 12 teams. I read that question because I've gotten a few questions that say I'm not required to start a tight end. I gave this stat before, but Travis Kelsey was like wide receiver 9 last year. And Ertz and Kittle were not far behind. Sure, they were top 15. This is from Taylor. Dear Julio, Amari, and Calvin.

I have no idea. Those are wide receivers. Yeah, I know. They are Alabama wide receivers. I said I have no idea, but it was a joke. I obviously knew, but it wasn't that obvious. It was a bad, sarcastic joke. I'm keeping Saquon Barkley in a 10-team keeper league,

and I have the number two pick. So considering I already have Saquon Barkley, should I take Melvin Gordon or David Johnson, or maybe take a different position like Travis Kelsey, Michael Thomas, and Juju? I guess the question is, Heath, do you change your draft order because you already have that stud running back locked up? No, I wouldn't.

This would come down to format for me, but assuming it's PPR, I would go with Juju. Is that the case? In fact, in non-PPR, I would go with Juju. I would go with Juju. I would go with Juju. But what about if Melvin Gordon is signed, sealed, delivered? You would take Gordon over to Juju.

I think I had in PPR Juju ahead of Melvin already. In non-PPR, I did have Melvin fifth. This is Chris in a suburb east of Cleveland. And he has a greeting of a movie that you don't know, Heath, but I think you need to watch it. It's terrific. You ready? How do you know I don't know it?

You don't know it. Honestly, you're just not cool enough to know it. So it's probably a terrible movie. Greetings, Coop, Andy, Victor, and Gene. Okay. That'll be Wet Hot American Summer. I started it. You didn't like it?

I don't know that I made it through the first half hour. All right, question. There are several iterations of Wet Hot American Summer. I don't know. The original in 2001 is the great one. They've done like a mini series. It's about like a summer camp or something. Yeah. Yeah. But,

but I hope you saw the original. Well, I, I don't know. Well, I hope you saw the original. Okay. Wet hot American summer.

No, you hope I didn't see the original cause I stopped watching after 15 minutes. That's true. That's true. Can I tell you who's in wet hot American summer? Uh, sure. Janine Garofalo,

Garofalo, Jimmy Garofalo, David Hyde Pierce, people you may not know. Wet Hot American Summer. Sure. Janine Garoppolo. Jimmy Garoppolo. David Hyde Pierce. People you may not know. Michael Showalter. And like everybody from the state. But Paul Rudd's in it. Man, it's too bad that Dave and Jamie missed this.

Paul Rudd's in it. Amy Poehler's in it. Bradley Cooper is in it. Elizabeth Banks is in it. It's a star-studded great show. 10-team, half PPR, redraft league. I'm one of the top three most strategically informed owners. My teams always tend to have the best value every year post-draft,

as defined by conventional fantasy football wisdom, while most others are drafting based on preloaded default rankings or name recognition, like Tom Brady went in the first round last year. But the problem I've run into is waiting on quarterbacks in this 10-team half PPR league. I'll be filling out the rest of my starting roster other than quarterback and then maybe one or two backups, and maddeningly, the rest of my league will not only have drafted their starting quarterback, also started to draft backups, thus leaving me with QB 12 through 15 as my starter. Fast forward to the first half of the season when all the value I've taken is sitting on my bench

and my quarterback isn't performing well enough to hold up his part of the roster, and I fall in an early hole that can be tough to climb out of. In addition to the fact that since it's only a 10-team league, the draft is more forgiving, even to those whose approach would be a lot more detrimental in larger-sized leagues. That's an interesting spin. Is there any advice you can give me? I wouldn't wait. I wouldn't be drafting third and fourth running backs in this format

before I took my quarterback. Now, I don't know when you say the quarterbacks fly off the board. If Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are going off in the first round, then I'm sorry, you're just not going to get those guys. But I wouldn't push it quite as far as I have to wait until the 10th round because that's where the value, because in this format, it's really not quite as much that way. You're right that it's more okay to take a quarterback a little earlier in this format.

But QB 15 for you is Drew Brees. I'm not going to use him because he's not going to be 15th in most drafts just based on ADP. So let's say it's Dak Prescott or Mitchell Trubisky or something. Is there a big difference between him and QB 7, 8, 9, Wentz,

Roethlisberger, Winston? QB 8, 9, no. I think there's a tier right after Wince. Okay. Yeah, I think in this 10-team league that you, Chris, are obviously very good at, you can afford to get a quarterback early,

and it still seems like you're savvy enough to be drafting studs otherwise, you know, so don't hurt yourself in that position. From Jordan, I'm in a 2QB, 4-point-per-passing touchdown league. I can keep four of the following with no penalty. 2QB, 4-point-per-passing touchdown league, keep four. Mahomes, Rodgers, Antonio Brown, Kelsey, Damian Williams, Marlon Mack, and Keenan Allen.

Hmm. Marlon Mack, and Keenan Allen. I am going to keep Travis Kelsey. That is my first keeper. And I am going to keep Patrick Mahomes. Okay, yeah, that was not an easy one. From Garrett, grade the trade. 12-team half PPR Dynasty League, and I need help grade the trade 12 team half PPR dynasty league. And I need help with a trade.

I would receive Ezekiel Elliott and carry on Johnson. It's dynasty. Zeke and Johnson carry on Johnson. I would give up for net Damian Williams and Keenan. Do it. Do it right now. Do it. Do it.

Do it. Do it. Great. The trade. Great. The trade. Do it. Okay. Plus. Do it. Do it. Do it. Grade the trade. Grade the trade. Do it. Okay. A plus.

All right. Thank you for your enthusiasm, Heath. That's great. Love it. And thank you all for listening. We appreciate it. I hope you have a wonderful weekend. We'll come back on Monday with another edition of Fantasy Football Today.

For Heath Cummings, Dave Richard, Jamie Isenberg, I'm Adam Azer saying, na, na, na, na, na Azer saying, na-na-na-na-na-na-na!