Fantasy Football Today - 07/16: Rankings Updates and Mailbag! (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 16, 2019

A lot of topics to cover on today's show including why catches matter so much for RBs (1:40) and good chatter about the ARI offense. Dave updates his rankings with Kyler Murray (5:30) and Mark Andrews (14:16) moving up ... News and notes (18:30). Do we have to worry about Ezekiel Elliott holding out? Did we forget about Emmanuel Sanders? Also, Ronald Jones is bulked up ... Your questions about David Johnson (26:40), Nick Chubb, QB depth (30:00), playing the waiver wire (33:15), Joe Mixon vs. James Conner (38:00), Larry Fitzgerald (42:00), consistency, league formats (51:00) and much more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Big show today. It is Tuesday, July 16th.

Thanks for listening, everyone, and welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Guess what? Training camp begins on Thursday. The Broncos are getting started this week, and football is here. Today, we answer your questions. We update some rankings. We go through the big news. I'm Adam Azer.

Hey, Heath Cummings. What's up? Hi, Adam. Hey. Hey, Dave Richard. Adam, what's going on? Hey, a special shout out to all the subscribers who are coming back to us now because training camp is opening up and didn't stick around for the entire offseason.

Why are we giving them a shout out? Yeah, what's up with them? I just want to let them know that they are way far behind and they've got to start doing a lot of work to get ready for their fantasy drafts. And if you had just stuck around in the first place, you'd be feeling good about what to expect in 2019. Learn your lesson, I hope. Your email is at fantasyfootball

at cbsi.com. This is a mailbag show. First 20 minutes or so will probably be some rankings, some Damian Williams talk, and news and notes as Ezekiel Elliott is threatening a holdout now, so we'll talk about that. We've got an update on Delaney Walker, on Phillip Lindsay, on Ronald Jones, the big buff Ronald Jones. Do you guys want to start with an email or a stat? Stat. Email.

I'm going to do a stat. Stat of the day. In each of the last two seasons, there have been only two running backs that have finished as top 12 running backs with fewer than 50 catches. None have finished higher than RB9. This is in PPR. None have finished higher than RB9. And now if you went to 60 catches, you'd get more names in there, but 50

catches. No top 8 running backs either in the last two years with less than 50 catches. But top eight running backs either in the last two years with less than 50 catches. But in 2016, you had almost the entire top 12 basically was running backs with less than 50 catches, including Ezekiel Elliott, who only had 32 catches, and he was number two. He was the number two running back in fantasy. And really, it's just the trend, guys, of 50 catch running backs. It's a bit of an arbitrary number, but over the last five years, five 50 catch running backs in 2014.

Five, then eight, then 11, then 14, then 16 last year. So really, this came up because I know we have an email about Nick Chubb. And just what is your upside in PPR if you don't catch 40? Forget 50. You don't catch 40 passes. But if you don't catch 50, it's going to be hard to be a top five running back. What do you think about that? Top five running back or top 12 running back? You could be top 12. You could certainly be top 12. But the stat is in PPR, and I think maybe

even in non-PPR, I'll confirm, no top eight running backs with less than 50 fewer catches, two straight years. I just went and looked, and all of my top eight running backs with less than 50 fewer catches two straight years. I just went and looked, and all of my top eight running backs are projected for at least 50 catches. Makes sense, too, for a couple of reasons. Number one, just for fun, I went and took the average amount of carries for the top 12 running backs in non-PPR last year, and the carries were 215.5. I remember when we used to pontificate on this podcast about how you need to have at least 250 carries to be a top five or a top 10 fantasy running back. And it's changed now because running backs are being used more in the passing game and less in the running game. And I think it's helping them play more effectively,

get more yards per play, and maybe even stay healthy in a number of cases. This is the direction of the NFL. We've been saying for a decade plus, it's been a passing league. It's been affecting running backs. It's also part of the reason why we thought that receivers were going to stop being so amazing as recently as last year. Now it came to pass that there were a lot of amazing receivers last season, but running backs have taken a lot of targets away from the overall passing game. And I think it's helping and you're seeing it show up in the top 12 running backs. Certainly have more, uh, receptions. I don't know how much they've taken away or if it's just that pass volume has gone up that much.

Teams are just throwing more than they ever have. So Kareem Hunt was RB8 last year with 26 catches. So that's non-PPR, sorry. In PPR, that stat holds true, but I'm looking at in non-PPR. Last year, Kareem Hunt was RB8, Joe Mixon was RB9, and Phillip Lindsay, I believe, was 12. And then I'll look at 2017. But you'll see, because look, it's not just the catches.

It's the yards and potentially the touchdowns that come with it as well. In 2017, Leonard Fournette had 36 catches, and he was RB8 in non-PPR. So I would say there have been zero top eight running backs over the last two years in PPR with fewer than 50 catches, and in non-PPR, no top seven running backs in each of the last two years. All right, keep it in mind.

It's an upside thing for sure. I did want to talk about Damian Williams, but Jamie wrote a story about Damian Williams, and now he was reversing course a little bit due to Williams' upside. So I wanted to get Jamie's take on that. He is currently on set for CBS Sports HQ. So let's go to Dave's rankings adjustments. Dave, you told me you had a couple of guys that you were moving up. Actually, you told me three rankings changes. One of them had to do with Damian Williams, so we'll wait on that. But Kyler Murray is in your top 10.

He's 17th for Heath. And Mark Andrews is a top 12 tight end for you. He's 23rd for Heath. So it looks like we'd have some nice little rankings disputes here. Okay, what made you wake up and say, oh, Kyler Murray has got to be a top 10 quarterback now? This started about 24 hours ago when we did a mock draft and quarterbacks just went super late.

And I'll set the scene for you. It's about 9 p.m. in the Richard House. I'm sitting at my kitchen table doing a draft. Shorts and a t-shirt? Shorts and a t-shirt. Okay. Barefoot. Kids upstairs.

Wife's upstairs. I got the whole kitchen to myself. Man, you should have seen the spread I made. But Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, all on the board, and it's round, what round was it, Heath? Like 10, 11? It was late. You talking about last night?

Yeah. Yeah, it was insane how're talking about last night yeah yeah it was insane how late the quarterbacks went absolutely and i already had taken a quarterback i had andrew luck in round six and i'm looking and when you see quarterbacks fall that far in a draft you've got to recognize that there's obviously positions that go up ahead of them and it's not by much but the the running backs and receivers and tight ends that were left at this point, man, they're all ugly. There's nothing to look at and say, I got to have them. And I've been saying all along that Kyler Murray has ridiculous upside, huge upside. He's coming into the NFL after being the second quarterback in college football history with over 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing.

It's the exact same scheme. It's with a coach he's known since he was in high school. Kyler Murray is in a great position to outperform any ADP he ends up with. And I couldn't help myself but to take a second quarterback, and it wasn't Breeze, who's been amazing and is going to the Hall of Fame, and it wasn't Wilson, who's been efficient and is probably going to the Hall of Fame. And it wasn't Wilson who's been efficient and is probably going to the Hall of Fame. It was Kyler Murray. And I think I can justify it as it's a low-risk, high-reward pick

that if he does what his potential is early on, I know I'm going to be able to get something for him in trade because of the rushing prowess and the passing prowess. I just think that it was an easy pick to make in round 12. It was bonkers, which led to a follow-up thought. Well, it's easy to say that he's got more upside than Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. But what if this was a regular draft and it's round nine and these are the three quarterbacks staring me in the face. How could I justify not taking Murray then under the exact same argument of upside,

knowing that there are so many other quarterbacks that you can either wait for in the later rounds or pick up off waivers after week two and Kyler Murray is a total bust. And in round nine pick is not a valuable pick in fantasy. I agree with everything you're saying, basically. Just to wrap it up, Adam, I made the move. I put him in the top ten. He's ninth for me. But why do you think

you'll be able to trade Kyler Murray if he gets off to a great start when you just said there's so much on the waiver wire? You know what I mean? Quarterback trade value is very interesting. Non-existent. It is somewhat non-existent.

Unless it's an amazing quarterback. And you just think he has more upside. We're talking about him scraping the ceiling. We're not talking about him, oh, he's averaging 23 fantasy points per game. No. No. He's got to do better than that. He's got's averaging 23 fantasy points per game. No, no, he's got to do better than that. He's got to do 65 fantasy points per game.

No, he's got to do close to 30 fantasy points per game. Something insane, something Mahomes-ish, which when you think about Mahomes' cumulative numbers from last year, there's no chance he's going to get 50 touchdowns. But he can run a lot, and he's going to run a lot. That's what this offense is predicated on. And he's accurate, chance he's going to get 50 touchdowns but he can run a lot and he's gonna run a lot that's what this offense is predicated on and he's accurate and he's mobile and he's got a lot of weapons around him and he's on a team with a defense that isn't great i i think kyler murray i've said it before i've said i'm gonna say it again there is nobody in fantasy drafts

after round six that has as much upside as he does it is the and i don't know this is wrong i don't necessarily disagree with a lot of the things that dave said thank you about the upside um my rankings are most like you referenced him being ranked 17th in mine mine are mostly based around projections i can't imagine projecting kyler murray with any confidence to be a top 10 quarterback this season. I do. I think it's possible. Absolutely. And I understand the argument that round 12, you're just going to take the upside. I don't agree that he has more upside than anybody taken after round six. Um, I, I think this is one of the most volatile situations we've

been faced with because it's not the same as Mahomes. He's got Cliff Kingsbury, who definitely brings something exciting but was also mostly a bad college coach. He's got no Travis Kelsey. He's got no Tyreek Hill or anything like him. So I don't think the same sort of upside exists. Do I think he could be a top 10 quarterback this season? Absolutely. I've only got him ranked like 10 or 12 points behind my top 10 quarterback.

I also think that there is a floor, uh, like you look at the fantasy pros consensus rankings. He has by far the widest range. He's ranked as high as number five in some people's rankings this season at quarterback. He's ranked as low as number 27. I don's rankings this season at quarterback. He's ranked as low as number 27. I don't think either of those are too high or too low. I don't see—the five might be a little high. 27 might be a little low. Oh, I think he could be one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

If I could continue the conversation a little bit, Adam. Heath, where do you have Lamar Jackson ranked? 12 or 13? Okay. 13, I think. And what's your projection for him, if you don't mindar Jackson ranked? 12 or 13? Okay. 13, I think. And what's your projection for him, if you don't mind me asking you to call a projection? 3,386 passing yards. All right, so 3,400.

750 rushing yards. Okay. 20 pass touchdowns, 6 rush touchdowns. Mark it down. Kyler Murray's beating that. Okay. No matter what you had said Dave was going to say, Kyler Murray, you could have totally lied. I know he was.

I don't know. You can't say 4,500 yards. This is the part where I might get argumentative. Let's go. There's a 0% confidence level in what Kyler Murray's going to be or what Cliff Kingsbury's going to be in the NFL. I guess I'm a little more confident in what's going on in Arizona. I don't think it's a big question. based on Cliff Kingsbury, listen, as a coach, he isn't going to be great. I don't think Arizona is going to go to the playoffs this year. I think they're going to

be chasing points in a lot of games. I think they're going to throw a good amount. And like the air raid off, like, were they, did he have a lot of really successful running quarterbacks in the air raid offense? I don't remember any. Well, Patrick Mahomes had like 25 touchdowns or something. But like 200 rushing yards. Sure. But Murray is a different type of quarterback than that.

Yes. Oh, for sure. Murray is a runner. He will take off and make defense. Yeah, he's so talented, obviously. All right. So he is going to be an interesting guy. And I really think, I mean, David Johnson is so interesting, too.

David Johnson says he's excited about playing out of the shotgun. He did a lot of that. In fact, his quote—oh, man, I had it. I'm sorry. But his quote was—I'll pull it up—about just how excited he is doing the same things that he did in college, working out of the shotgun. And it could be a very good system for him. I have that quote, yeah. You have it on you?

That's all we did in college is the gun, a read option type thing. I think it really opens up more space for me and makes me able to read the defense a little bit more. So he's familiar with that type of scheme. I don't know if he was in the air raid at Northern Iowa. I don't know if that's the system that they ran, but obviously playing out a shotgun and doing zone read, he did plenty of. Now he's going to play off of a true rushing threat quarterback

in Kyler Murray. And I know that offensive line is literally five bags of salt, but I think it could lead to some huge numbers for both of these guys. That offense is going to really determine a lot in fantasy. It really is. So looking forward to seeing what happens in the preseason. And then it'll be nothing in the regular season. All right, so your other rankings adjustment.

Mark Andrews in your top 12. There's a little bit of buzz on Baltimore's second-year tight end, who was a third-round pick in the same draft as Hayden Hurst, who was a first-round pick. But draft as Hayden Hurst, who was a first round pick. But it's all on Mark Andrews right now, who had not a bad rookie season. I mean, 552 yards and three touchdowns, better than O.J. Howard's rookie season, in terms of yards anyway, better than David Njoku's rookie season. So, Dave, you have him right around 12th, right? Or 13th? He's 12th for me, with the idea being that you can draft him with a late round pick. So Dave, you have him right around 12th, right? Or 13th? He's 12th for me with the idea being that you can draft him

with a late round pick. In fact, I'd like to debut a new late round tight end strategy title. Would you like to hear? Is it called the crappy tight end strategy? It's called late round tight ends AF. A for Andrews and F for Fant.

Oh, nice. I like that. So that's how you remember. That's outstanding. That's what AF stands for, right? Andrews and Fant. Yeah, Andrews and Fant. That's what I'm going for.

Always. In the case of Andrews, I think he's the better tight end in Baltimore. We don't know what the health is of any of these wide receiver rookies that the Ravens have. Chris Moore is being touted as being a new receiver and threat in Baltimore. I'm not buying it. You go back and you look at who Lamar Jackson had the most success with throwing the football to, and it was Mark Andrews. He had 13 catches, 308 yards, one touchdown.

You don't think that that's much? You're right, it's not. But he had a 65% catch rate, a good receiving average, better than a lot of the other players in Baltimore's offense. He had a 74-yard catch or something, right? He still had it. He had a bunch of other deep ball targets. So you have him ahead of Njoku and Hooper and Traber.

Because those guys don't excite me. Mark Andrews should not excite you, I don't think. No, but he's someone who's got chemistry with his quarterback. He's at Miami in week one, Arizona in week two. I think he can get off to a good start. Yeah, Jamie's got him right around 12 as well. Heath, not so much. I don't know.

No, look, I get it. I think you should don't know. No, look, I get it. I think you should don't explain. He had almost 1,000 receiving yards his junior year in Oklahoma with Baker Mayfield. He was second on the team in receiving behind Marquise Brown, who is now his teammate with Baltimore. I saw his 40 time was pretty good. And the funny thing is I just looked at some Mark Andrews highlights,

just to take another look because I knew we were going to talk about him. He looks like a slug to me. He just doesn't look – you want to talk about exciting. He doesn't look exciting at all. But some people are in on Mark Andrews. I think if he's your starting tight end, then you're streaming tight ends. That's fine. You're streaming tight ends AF, basically.

Okay. So I just want to be clear. I'm not disagreeing with your rankings. I'm just saying this is what we're dealing with when we get to 12 at tight end ranking. Yeah. Do you have him ahead of Jordan Reed too? Oh, yeah.

Yeah. And Vance McDonald? No. Vance is ahead of him. Okay. Let's do some news and notes. A couple things I want to talk to you about. The First Cut podcast,

this is a big week in golf, so preview podcasts, although you might be missing your chance to hear that one, but recap podcasts, I think there are going to be two of them. After the first two rounds, and then on Sunday,

another recap podcast for this week's big golf tournament. You can tell I don't know anything about golf, but I do know the First Cup podcast is really good, and it's three times a week for you golf fans, so check it out. CBS Sports HQ, I want you to know about HQ. You can watch it in your living room. It's not just an online thing. It's like you grew up watching SportsCenter. You're tired of SportsCenter. Nobody watches SportsCenter anymore. Start watching HQ because this is what you want. This is highlights, smart analysis, all sports, all topics, fantasy. The show Fantasy Football Today is on there. Not our podcast,

but the video version of FFT. Our podcast is going to be on video though. It's going to be on YouTube. So that'll be cool. I'll tell you more about that at a later date. But please check out HQ. Download it on your connected device. Download the CBS Sports app on your connected device and start streaming HQ. Ezekiel Elliott, as we go to the news and notes, says he's going to hold out of camp if he doesn't get a new contract. That's according to Pro Football Talk.

Yahoo reports that Zeke must report to camp by August 6th to receive an accrued season toward free agency. That's pretty important. Well, who are you more worried about right now, Zeke or Melvin Gordon? Melvin Gordon by a billion miles. That's a lot of miles. And I would worry for a billion miles. And I would worry for a billion more.

Just to see Ezekiel Elliott in fantasy draft while Melvin Gordon shone the door. Da-da-da! Da-da-da! I can't do it anymore. It's such a terrible song. We just made it great.

It's such a feel-good song, man. It's awful. I feel awful. You made me feel bad. Alright, you're drafting today. Ezekiel Elliott goes with what pick? One or two. Or four in PPR.

Phillip Lindsey says he will be 100% for camp on Thursday, and we have an email about Phillip Lindsey. We'll talk about that. Ronald Jones has bulked up. What do you make of the Tampa Bay backfield? Well, the one skill that he did have was speed, so I'm sure this will help.

I will say this, and I've noticed this before, that Bruce Arians tends to favor running backs that come in at about 220. David Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall back in the day. Bettis was obviously more than 220. That guy was several cheeseburgers over 220. And here he is right now coming in at 220. Jamie Eisenberg

plus 40 pounds. Jamie, you're weighing 220 these days? Adam just said you weigh 220 pounds. I wish I weighed 220. It was a segue. It was a segue. Hey. I've got a little fat.

I'm sorry. Hey, Jamie. It's fatball season. It's good to have pounds. It was a segue. It was a segue. Hey. I've got a little fat. I'm sorry. Hey, Jamie. It's fatball season. It's good to have you. It is. Yes. Fatball season. Who went?

In the draft that we did last night, who was the first Tampa Bay running back off the board? I'm sure it was Ronald Jones. He went in round seven. Peyton Barber went in round eight. And did Anderson go? Yes, he did. To Chris Towers, who's bogus heath, in round 11. Yeah, Chris likes to use my rankings during those drafts.

Chris definitely used your rankings in that draft. Yes. He does in a lot of them just to make me mad. All right. Darius Geist downplayed a hamstring injury. We'll do the same. Emmanuel Sanders, we alluded to this yesterday. He's running pretty well coming off a torn Achilles.

Looks good. Let's not forget about Emmanuel Sanders, right? Yeah, that's not great news for Cortland Sutton. Is it Cortland Sutton who's affected or Deshaun Hamilton who's affected? I don't think they're affected. I mean, I think he's going to play a factor. I shouldn't say that. He's obviously going to affect them if he plays.

But you never know with these guys. We thought Deontay Foreman was going to be ready to go from week one last year. And he was slow and didn't get on the field. And Sanders is an older player by comparison, different position clearly. Making a few cuts and running a straight line is different when you have the pads on. So let's just wait and see what happens. Is he not going to be on the public?

I took him in the 14th round in our draft last night. 13th round, end of the 13th round. So I don't think anyone's going to complain about that for Emmanuel Sanders. You should. Why? I'm kidding. One thing I feel pretty confident about is there will not be two fantasy-relevant wide receivers on the Broncos at the same time anyway.

Why? Because Joe Flacco doesn't do that. Well, you've never seen Joe Flacco with the Broncos. Tall Eli, quarterback. What else we got? Cincinnati offensive guard. And there's a report that Drew Locke may hold out. I saw that.

Clint Bowling is retiring. He's a Bengals offensive lineman. They already lost Jonah Williams, their rookie offensive tackle, to a torn labrum. So I don't think Bowling is clearly not a great player at this point, but not an offensive line that can afford to lose bodies. Is this a big deal for you guys if you evaluate Joe Mixon? Not as much as losing the rookie. How about Chris Herndon suspended for the first four games?

We knew that. Jets tight end. Any fantasy fallout there? Four was more than I thought, too. He has fallen out of draft boards. He's good. If anybody's still doing fishbowl draft, he's still a good player to take. I think he's still best ball. He's good. If anybody's still doing fishbowl draft, he's still a good player to take.

I think he's still best ball. He's still worth taking. Sure, when you've got those deep runs. I'm still doing the fishbowl draft. I think I'm in round 16. We're going to draft until preseason week. Dynasty startups, he's still worth drafting. But 15-round redraft league, no.

You can't use him until week five? He's going to be one of the more popular waiver wire additions that week, though. Probably week three or four. Well, you would think that Robbie Anderson's been a guy who has been somewhat affected by the availability of other players around him, specifically Quincy Inunua. So my initial reaction was like, oh, maybe Robbie Anderson will get off to a good start. Based on last year and based on personnel this year, I think their first four games are pretty bad for Robbie Anderson. Potentially the bills.

Everybody just ran all over the bills last year. So they were good against the passing game. The Browns have a lot of talent defensively and in the secondary, the Patriots shut down Robbie Anderson last year when he was at his height. Then they have a buy in week four. Then they have the Eagles. So that means round round week six. That's the soonest Herndon can play.

Yeah, against the Cowboys. So I don't want to get too into it now, but just something to keep in mind. It's not great. It's good news, I think, for Anderson, but it's not a great schedule, so it would seem. Let's see. The Niners signed Robbie Gold. The Falcons signed defensive tackle Grady Jarrett to a big four-year deal, $68 million.

Houston did not sign Jadeveon Clowney. Alex Smith is no longer in a leg brace, but we're not expecting him to be a factor this year. Oakland guard Richie Incognito is suspended two games. Delaney Walker is expected to be ready for week one. They're hopeful he'll be ready for week one. Not necessarily the same for Jonu Smith, who tore his MCL.

So, Delaney Walker or Mark Andrews? Andrews. I'll take Delaney still for now. It depends what you're looking for, I think. That was a Jamie side. If Walker is ready for camp, he's

safer. True. But Andrews, I think, he's safer. True. But Andrews, I think, may have the higher ceiling. I think for Andrews, it comes down to Hayden Hurst. How much of a factor is Hayden Hurst going to be? We're going to take a quick break here. Today's sponsor is Noble. Awesome.

We all have our Noble shoes and shorts. I wear my shorts every time I run. They're great. The shoes are great. So you're about to hear about them. The promo, it's not a promo code, but the URL,

NoBull, as in, NoBullProject.com slash FFT. NoBullProject.com slash FFT. After this quick break, we will read your emails

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at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. All right, here's an email from Jonathan to kick us off. Thank you all, by the way, for all your emails. I'll do my best to respond to some just, you know, personally, and I'll try to read as many as I can on the show as well. Jonathan wants to know why everyone is buying into David Johnson this year

after he was so bad last season. So bad meaning almost 1,400 total yards and 10 touchdowns? And a top 12 running back but he was he was consistent pretty bad he was like 3.6 yards per carry so he didn't play particularly well he had six games in ppr with 16 or more points i think you should just rewind to the section of dave talking about kyler murray and that's why everyone is so excited about david johnson it's a new offense he's going to be used in a better way. Yeah. He's more comfortable in it.

He doesn't have some doofus calling play calls. I do think there's like a 40% chance that two to three years from now, we would put Cleve Kingsbury in the doofus calling plays. But not yet. Not yet. Let's give him his first year to surprise everybody. We'll see. I mean, look, you know what?

Chip Kelly, right, was not a good coach, but he was really good for running backs, wasn't he? I mean, you know, I think that's what Dave's saying. Like, forget about how good he's going to be as a coach. We're just worried about him offensively. It seems like an upgrade. And what I love, and I've given this stat a lot, David Johnson got 100% of his team's carries

inside the five-yard line. That won't happen this year because Kyler Murray will have some and maybe Edmonds will have some or whatever, but he is the undisputed goal linebacker. Next email from Taylor. Do you think me trading Julio Jones for Nick Chubb and maybe something else would be a good trade. My plan was to trade Julio for Chubb and then trade Damian Williams for Phillip Lindsey and Nikhil Harry. So that would be trading Julio and Damian Williams for Chubb, Lindsey, and Nikhil Harry. But yeah, what do you think about this?

These are no-brainers in dynasty or keeper leagues. No-brainers at all. And in non-PPR, I like the Chubb over Julio move. I think I can handle that. If you really want to have strength at running back, that's what you do. But I wouldn't do the other trade

in seasonal. I'd rather have Damian Williams than Lindsay and Harry. And in PPR, I'll take Julio. That's easy. I don't know if we have this next question's answer available, but something tells me we do. See.

This is from Dan. Where's Dan from? Plattsburgh, New York. Could you give the top 10 quarterbacks in order in a four-point-per-passing touchdown league? Yeah. Projected league? Yeah. Projected order? Yeah.

Yeah. And then I'll tell you who's going to finish top 10. That sounds like a perfect combination. So Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Mitchell Trubisky. Okay. So it's actually going to go Garoppolo? Yeah.

Golf. I know he has been saying this for months, Watson over Mahomes in a four-point propensity touchdown league. Dave, Jamie, do you guys agree? Yes. Really? I'll say no. Okay.

This is from Chris in a town in South Jersey. Yeah, so? Atlantic City. Hey, Carson, Nick, Donovan, and Kevin. yeah so atlantic city hey carson nick donovan and kevin i know nick and donovan are super bowl quarterbacks but i'm not sure who the other two are uh these are obviously eagles quarterbacks here i had a generic keeper question when it comes to late round quarterbacks uh last year i drafted jamis winston in the 15th round of a 14-team half PPR league. And I'm leaning towards keeping him, but I just wanted to know everyone's logic when it comes to keeping late-round quarterbacks.

A part of me thinks I'm handcuffing myself to Jameis in the 15th round. For example, if I decided to keep him and then come draft day, Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck slips to the 5th or the 6th round, that would be great value, but I would be hesitant to take one because I already have Jameis. I'm most likely going to keep him because he should be great this year, and it's a 14-team league where a lot of my buddies like to draft two quarterbacks each,

but I was just looking for a more generic mindset answer on keeping quarterbacks with a late-round pick. What's wrong with keeping him for that cheap value just so you have the right to keep him again the following year at a cheap value. Even if it goes up two rounds next year, if Jameis does what some of us have him projected to do, that's going to be incredible value. So you're kind of, you know, putting squatters rights on Jameis. Just depends on what you're giving up by doing it. I guess it's a good

point, though, because you're you're keeping the deepest position. And then you are somewhat, like if you kept the running back late, you wouldn't necessarily be like, well, I'm not going to draft this other running back that's going to be maybe my third running back, even though he's great value. Because obviously we all want to stockpile running backs. But to keep a quarterback late, you might say, all right, I only want one quarterback. Or maybe I'll take another, but it's going to be real late. So I am going to pass up on this amazing value for Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck.

I could see that. It's an interesting point. But it's not – the investment is still minimal here, though. Yeah. So let's say you took – Jamie, you kept – I'll give you a different example. It's somewhat similar in terms of the topic. Like I have in a league where you can keep four keepers.

You can start as many as four receivers, but I have DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Godwin for what essentially is a 13th and 14th round pick. My other two keepers are Andrew Luck, and it's a league that just is crazy defensive scoring. I have the Bears with a last round pick, so I'm going to keep the Bears. I'm going to probably, I think I'm picking fourth,

and Kamara of the big four running backs is the only one that's not there. I'm probably taking Devontae Adams at four. So I'm going in knowing that I need running back help, but I'm starting my draft with the best available player. And so in this case, Jameis is a good potential starter. He's not a slam dunk starter. So if you feel you're getting great value out of Luck or Rodgers or whoever the case may be, still take that player.

Okay. If it's the right value. Okay. Moving on to our next email from Adam. And where's he from? We'll put him in Coral Gables, Florida. Oh, great. Dear Steve, Gino, Danny, and Tim.

Crappy college quarterbacks from the University of Florida. What one starting roster spot do you feel... Gino? Steve? Steve Spurrier. Could be Steve. I don't know who Gino. I guess Gino is probably Toretta, but Danny and Tim. Who's Danny? Warfel or Canel?

Canel didn't go to Florida. No, Warfel, I was thinking. So wait, who's... Yeah, so who's Gino? Okay, well, anyway... The only Gino I would know would be Toretto. Hold on a second. Spurrier won the Heisman. Yep. Gino won the Heisman. Oh, these are Heisman winners. Gino Toretto won the Heisman.

Tim Tebow won the Heisman. Oh yeah, this is the guy. I told you I love this guy. Yes, Jamie, I'm reading his stupid email. He's a Gator fan, yeah. Okay, which one starting roster spot do you feel confident you can find after the season starts? Not someone you just play one week, but someone you can play six-plus games.

And how does this impact your draft? Good question. Yeah. I'll say quarterback. That's the easiest one. one receiver will be next easiest you know it's funny i i really think that every year you end up with waiver wire running backs that become that was the first thing i went to really good i mean there's going to be an injury somewhere along the way but that makes it easy to get them? No. I think it's easier to go and get quarterback

or receiver. You're right. I wouldn't say it's easy, but I would say that... He didn't say easy, though. He said you can find. He said you can feel confident you can find. Yeah, I mean, you could find running backs that are going to get hurt. You could find any position. There's not necessarily a lot of situations where a

prominent receiver goes down and a backup receiver comes in is just as good. There is very many situations of running backs going down and the backup coming in is not necessarily as good, but certainly startable in fantasy. Well, okay. First of all, we can all agree quarterback is an answer to this question. Like quarterback, you can stream.

Yeah. Tight end, you can't. I think that's probably the one position that's the hardest, right? Tight end? Yes. Well, I don't know. Like, to get a top 12 tight end, I'm not sure that's true. To get an impact, you can start for six-plus games.

That was part of his question. You can start it for six-plus games. Probably tight end, then. The hardest to find, yeah. All right, yeah. All right, P.S. I know it's not fantasy or NFL related, but I'm super excited for the UF versus Miami game.

Rivalry is a huge part of why sports are awesome. Every week until the UF versus Miami game, I will give you a reason why the University of Florida is a better school than Miami. Number one, according to usnews.com, UF ranks number 35 in national universities and Miami is number 53. Okay. All right.

All right, Adam. Finally a good Adam. Yeah. All right. You know what? It's fine. Challenge accepted. I don't know what the challenge is, but it's accepted.

If it's Gators, Miami. You're going to have to come up with a reason why Miami is a better school than Florida each week. Oh, yeah. Well, should it be academic? It can be any reason. Okay, fine. I will let Heath weigh in on this because I think it's a toss-up. I really do.

Both schools have a bus system to transport kids around campus. The University of Florida one, now this might be to transport them to the bars. I'm not sure. The University of Florida one is called the Later Gator. The University of Miami one is called the Hurricane. Which one is a better

on-campus transportation? Ours is definitely for after hours. Yeah, I would definitely say the Later Gator. The Hurricane. Hurricane. The Hurricane doesn't take you to an entertainment district or a dining district. We're spending a lot of time. Are we going to spend this long arguing who the third best football school in New York is?

Okay, go UCF. Let's take a break here. When we come back, we're going to debate Joe Mixon versus James Conner. Read more of your emails. We have a Larry Fitzgerald email. He's excited for that one. Talk about some league formats and more. We'll be right back.

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It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Scott has our next email. Scott is from... Dave? Instead of saying, I gotta go by, I'm going to say, I have to hurry, can't out of here. Later, Gator.

Later, Gator. Scott's from... Platteville, Wisconsin. Where was the guy from New York from? Platteville or something? Plattsburgh. Plattsburgh, okay. Can you debate Joe Mixon versus James Conner?

Go. James Conner is a better draft pick than Joe Mixon. Oh, yeah? Well, that's not right. No. Conner has a better offensive line. Connor's on a team that I expect to have a better defense. Connor has shown us more in the passing game.

I expect them to get a similar number of their team's offensive touches. I think the Steelers will run more plays and score more points. And I cannot think of anything other than pedigree that is in Mixon's favor. I do like Zach Taylor as the new play caller for the Cincinnati. Yeah, but he's not as good a play caller as Ben Roethlisberger. No. But I think there's a little sliver of a chance that Mixon will get used similarly to how Gurley was used in L.A. pre-arthritis. The offensive line is a huge issue.

The quarterback is a huge issue. And Heath mentioned that he expects the sealers to score more points than the Bengals. That's a no-duh statement. Connor is going to be in line to get more of those opportunities than Nixon will. Okay, Jamie, where do you come out on this? They're very close. I think if we get to a point, which we probably will not, but if we get to a point in the preseason where we see the Steelers actually using Jalen Samuels

in a more prominent role than anticipated or Benny Snell, I think you kind of have an expectation of what Giovanni Bernard will be to Joe Mixon. We don't know if there will be any sort of change in the Steelers. I would anticipate it not happening. But if that rumor plays itself out at any point, then I think you could see a situation where Joe Mixon maybe starts to get drafted

ahead of James Conner. But we saw last year, you know, Conner was just amazing. I know it was somewhat skewed because of how he did in a handful of games, but it's kind of been tried and true under Ben Roethlisberger, under Mike Tomlin, especially in the Le'Veon Bell era, that whether it was Bell or whoever replaced Bell was just a start. All right, if you're on Team Mixon, I can give you a little bit of hope.

I've given this stat before, and Heath always scoffs at it, but I think you'd be hard-pressed to find a running back who had this much of a difference in fantasy points in wins versus losses. He averaged 7.3 more carries per game and about 8 more fantasy points per game in wins compared to losses. And they were 5-3 before A.J. Green's injury. And they were 1-3 before A.J. Green's injury. And they were 1-7 after A.J. Green's injury. So if they are better, and I wouldn't expect the splits to be that drastic this year either,

but if they are better, and he's not maybe coming off the field or whatever, or just being out of the game plan because they're trailing all the time, then I think maybe Mixon can overtake James Conner. It's interesting right now. The average job position on fantasy football calculator for PPR has Mixon ahead of Conner. It also has Melvin Gordon still ahead of those guys.

So I don't know how much that has factored into any of the recent drafts that have gone on. I'm sure a lot of this is probably being skewed by the Scott Fishbowl. But in any event, the running back order after the top four is David Johnson, five, Le'Veon Bell, six, Melvin Gordon, seven, Mixon, eight, Connor, nine. And in the overall, Mixon's going 12th, Connor's going 14th. Okay, this is from Michael. I've been mocked drafting and Larry Fitzgerald is going in the double digit rounds with a new offensive minded head coach. Have we talked about the Cardinals today, by the way?

Probably a better quarterback, and assuming Fitzgerald shouldn't see double coverage, 1-10, is there a chance that Larry Fitzgerald could achieve 1,000 yards in 2019? Three. Dave, you've got to go higher than that. No, I don't. You've got Kyler Murray, top 10.

Doesn't matter. Oh, welcome aboard. Thank you, thank you. I've got him tonight. No, Christian Kirk is. You got Kyler Murray, top 10. Doesn't matter. Oh, welcome aboard. Thank you, thank you. I've got him tonight. No, Christian Kirk is going to be awesome. I think the rookies will contribute. I think the Cardinals told you everything that you needed to know on draft day. Isabella, Butler, they have to think about Larry Fitzgerald's replacement.

So there's a reason why I think they drafted those guys. I think Fitzgerald has a shot. I'll say five. It'll be interesting to see how he does in the red zone because I still think there's a chance he's going to be their primary slot guy. And so young quarterback, we'll see how much he throws from the pocket in prime areas. That I think would be,

you know, sort of telling cause he, he, that's, I think where Murray has to show me the most is what he'll do in tight spots, tight windows and who better to lean on in those areas than Larry Fitzgerald. And a thousand yards is only like 62 yards per game.

It's not a huge number if he plays 16 games. He's played 16 games every year for four years. I'll give him a four. I just wonder if they start to fall out of contention, which could happen quickly, does the team sort of lean on him more as an ambassador role, an extension of the coaching staff, and do we start to see a changing of the guard where they do lean on the younger guys

more so throughout the course of games? Not necessarily sitting Fitzgerald or benching Fitzgerald, but just not necessarily playing him the same amount of steps. Heath, what was the yardage total that you're looking for from Larry to get to his house? 62 yards per game. He had more than that three times last year. He does have a better quarterback this year. If last year's offense is relevant to this year's offense,

then Kyler Murray needs to be a long way from that. But he had over 112 targets, and he still could get it done on that. He did. His target share was a little bit lower than what it usually is, but it was still about 22%. They just had the worst offense. You have to throw out a lot of things for guys with the Cardinals last year and just sort of look at it and say it's a completely fresh start.

Okay, and last thing on Fitzgerald. Actually, his red zone targets in his last four seasons have been pretty high. Last year I think was only 14, but it was 18, 20, 21, and 14. That's a lot of red zone targets, and for whatever reason, he just doesn't come down with the touchdowns. All right. Next email is Campbell from our nation's capital. He says, hey, Mike, Dustin, Will, and Lucas.

And I got to tell you, I'm only halfway through. But season three of Stranger Things has been freaking awesome. This show is once again unofficially sponsored by Stranger Things. I'm going to start it tonight. Season one tonight. Are you really? Yep. I've been meaning to do it the last few days.

I really think you're going to like it. I think it's really good. All right. When Heath started arguing. If it's wrong, can I hate you? Yes. All right. If I don't like it, you have to pay for my pedicure in New York.

And if you do like it, you have to give me a pedicure in New York. No, I'm not. I'll pay for yours. I got a funny feeling Jamie's going to say he doesn't like it pedicure in New York. No, I'm not. I'll pay for yours. I got a funny feeling Jamie's going to say he doesn't like it just for the pedicure. No, no, no. I'll be honest. Later, Gator. But the show will decide who pays. Okay.

When Heath started arguing his justification for choosing Kenyon Drake over Marlon Mack, I almost lost it. Adam is going to prove I just said my own name wrong. I just called myself Alan. Adam is going to prove you all so wrong about his guy, Marlon Mack. How do each of the three of you have him behind at least four of Freeman, Carrion, Aaron Jones, Henry, Fournette, and Damian Williams, respectively? Mack is easily the safest of this bunch and has the clearest path to an RB1 finish

and probably the only guy with a legit top five upside. He's playing for one of the best offenses in football, scored 10 touchdowns in 12 games last year, and has no competition for lead back duties. Frank Reich said he could push for 2,000 total yards. Explain to me why any of the above players has a safer floor or a higher ceiling than Marlon Mack. I don't see it.

What is the other thing he said about me? How many running backs have finished top five? I know, I know. Sheesh, Adam, I can't wait for you to be oh so right. Yeah, I know. That was the thing. I don't think he has top five upside unless he starts catching more balls because you can't do it without 50 catches based on the

last two years. I do like him better than Kenyon Drake though. I don't like him better than Aaron Jones or Kerryon Johnson. But I do like him. than Kenyon Drake, though. I don't like him better than Aaron Jones or Kerryon Johnson. But I do like him better. Yeah, Alan. Yeah. Okay, well.

Three best friends that anyone. But what do you think the most catches you could see Marlon Mack getting? 35? 32. Alan. All right. Eric from a New England state that should hate Robert Kraft. A New England state that should hate Robert Kraft.

Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. Connecticut? I don't know. Dear Charleston Chew, mounds, milk duds, and dots. All candy that is worse than Butterfinger. Those are some stank-ass candies.

I like Dots better than Butterfinger. I don't know about the others. Is Charleston Chew bad? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know if I've had it. Okay. Who are some players you are projecting

to be the most consistent in fantasy scoring at their positions this upcoming season? Consistency. Okay, good stuff, guys. The ones ranked at the top. Okay, who are some inconsistent players, then? Brandon Cooks. Mitchell Trubisky.

Sammy Watkins. Okay, this was a bit of a dud of a question. A dud of an answer. Good question. Mike is from? Mike is from Yakima, Washington. Okay, who do you think has the best chance to produce as a consistent wide receiver one? Or rather, to produce consistent wide receiver one numbers?

Cooper Cup, Chris Godwin, or Sammy Watkins? Sammy Watkins. Cooper Cup. Godwin. How about that? Love it when this happens. Should I break the tie? I will say Cup in non-PPR and Goblin in PPR.

Mike from a football town in Pennsylvania, west of Pittsburgh. Can't get farther west than Pittsburgh, can you? It's pretty west. Eerie. San Francisco. Dear Julius, Jerry, Rev, and Sunshine. That's like Jamie's favorite movie. Mm-hmm.

Remember the title. Favorite of all time. What's your opinion of player volatility when considering floor versus ceiling? Example, would you rather draft Amari Cooper at his third round ADP, knowing he can finish the season having averaged 20 points per game,

but he gets there by scoring 44 points in week one and then eight and eight in the next two weeks. Or a guy like Robert Woods at his fourth round ADP who will probably average 15 points per game but be extremely consistent. I think since the ADP is so minimal, the difference is so minimal, I take the player with the higher ceiling.

So I think that's Cooper. But if you're talking two rounds, three rounds, five rounds, then it starts to change the conversation a little bit. Unless it's really extreme, and it's the reason I didn't have a very good answer to the question, I don't generally worry too much about consistency. Right. Unless it's a player that has shown awful consistency over a number of years.

But I have Cooper projected for three more points. I'd probably just draft him. Plus, I think he can be a little more consistent now. The one guy that used to be this player for me, the inconsistent player, that no matter where he finished, I never wanted him. The two guys I would say were Deshaun Jackson and Emmanuel Sanders. Of course, where they're going now in drafts,

I don't really care about that. But I don't know that I see that equivalent this year. I'm sure we can think of one. But a guy who's just going to put up good numbers but is going to drive you. Like Marvin Jones maybe would be a guy like that. Cooks could be that. Galladay could be that. Cooks, I don't know.

Does Cooks have a lot of bad, useless weeks? Not a lot. I don't think he does. But he does have some blow-up weeks and then some non. I mean, it's probably more so when he was with New Orleans and New England. Yeah. There also just aren't a lot of consistent players. Keenan Allen finished tied for 15th

among receivers in consistency in non-PPR, and he had 10 fantasy points or more in half of his games. Yeah, I don't really focus on consistency at all. All right. And let me read a couple of questions about league formats here to end the show.

This is from... I don't think I have a name here. Or a city. No, it is from Scott in Chicago. One of my friends is starting up a new redraft league and came in hot with a proposal for a new survivor style method of determining the league winner. As a survivor super fan, I don't hate it, but it's quite unique and I'm wondering what your thoughts are. The regular season is normal. Week 15, the four

playoff teams do not play head-to-head. Rather, the lowest scoring team is eliminated and finishes in fourth place. Week 16, once again, no head-to-head matchups. You just track scoring for the three remaining teams. After week 16, the three finalists get one PowerPoint slide to articulate their case as to why they deserve to be the league champion. Finalists can use any criteria for evaluation. Most points in week 16, amazing draft, overcame injuries, made great trades and waiver pickups,

dominated the regular season, etc. Each league member will cast one anonymous vote for who they think is the most deserving winner. What do you think? Innovative and refreshing or too absurd? I feel like I already know Heath will hate it. At one point, Heath held his face

in his hand as if he was the Captain Picardard meme the thing is i don't know why he would think that i'm the guy that's usually pretty open to new things and say how much fun things would be does it sound like fun this is terrible this is one of the worst ideas i've ever heard my entire life powerpoint and fantasy football should never go together in anything ever um i know he actually he had had me until he got to the PowerPoint. I don't necessarily hate the idea of like six teams make the playoffs, and the last three weeks it's just combined scoring.

Whoever scores the most points wins. No, I actually like the elimination idea. So in our leagues, we play 13 weeks. Week 14, the top two teams get a bye. There's four teams left. The two teams that score the most points then advance to the following week. And then same thing repeats the next week. And then you just have a traditional championship game in week 16.

I feel like he started sending this email to us. I actually love that. And he was working on a work project. And he got to step three of his plan and he put in his work project. Maybe it was late at night when he sent the email. Now, don't forget to check your Out outlook calendar to make sure you have the draft scheduled please wear a coat and tie and bring a lot of water to stay hydrated thank you my league mates okay nathan from a suburb of charlotte north carolina but in South Carolina.

Oh, where is it? Rock Hill where they practice? Sure. I'm starting a new guillotine league with 17 players where each week the lowest scoring team is eliminated and all of their roster becomes free agents where all the remaining teams can use fab to make claims. With such a large

draft, do you have any draft tips? Roster construction? What is the last quarterback you'd feel comfortable starting with? to make claims. With such a large draft, do you have any draft tips, roster construction, what is the last quarterback you'd feel comfortable starting with, early season tips on using Fab in such a format, blah, blah, blah.

Remember, if you have the lowest score, you are done. I'm doing the same exact format with analysts from other sites. Really? I've got three of those that are all best ball.

And it's a little terrifying. You definitely cannot wait quite as long on quarterback. That makes sense. Any other tips or just basically that? Cross your fingers. I don't know about you, Jamie, but I leaned a little bit more

towards guys that I knew were going to play early in the year. As opposed to there are guys that are probably going to score eight in the year. I haven't really given much thought to that. As opposed to, like, there are guys that are probably going to score eight points every week and be really bleh. Oh, Lamar Miller.

We take some of the upside guys. Right, so you take Miller over Miles Sanders. It doesn't really matter if you have a stud team in week 14 if you were eliminated 10 weeks ago. Right, right. Don't think about the playoffs as much. Think about guys that, if they are in a potential timesharehare worry about the guy that's getting the opportunity first i would certainly focus on tight end and quarterback is tyreek hill a top 100 pick in this format no i think he's still

top 100 yes but yes wow 17 top 100 that's 50 will be a top 100 pick for somebody on another team because you can't use them if you're going to be eliminated in the first place. You can still win. That's like a fifth or sixth round pick. He's not a top 50 pick, but he's going to get picked before 100. Oh, he's going to get picked. I probably wouldn't pick him. You wouldn't take him in round nine in this type of a format?

It's not round nine. It's 17 teams. So you've only got four players. You're going to decide if you're going to use one on Tyreek Hill. Yeah, you're right. I wasn't thinking about that. All right. Thanks so much, guys.

This was a really fun show. I appreciate all the emails. Ding, ding, ding, ding. Hurricane. No wasn't thinking about that. Yeah. All right. Thanks so much, guys. This was a really fun show. I appreciate all the emails. Ding, ding, ding, ding. Hurricane. No, it's the Later Gator, you fool. Got to go. Bye. All right.

Bye, Jamie. The Later Gator has a bell? Oh, that's pretty weak. It's a bike. The Hurricane has TVs. That's all I know. For Dave, for Jamie, for Heath, I'm Adam. Thanks so much.

Enjoy your Wednesday. We'll talk to you Thursday. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Jamie for Heath I'm Adam thanks so much enjoy your Wednesday we'll talk to you Thursday na na na na na