Fantasy Football Today - 07/18: Player Debates and Training Camp Storylines (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 18, 2019

Need some good healthy player debates? This is your episode! As training camps are underway, we begin with some storylines and position battles to track. Is Matt Breida or Jerick McKinnon the #2 RB in... San Francisco (2:40)? Which SEA RB has a more enticing ADP (5:52)? We also analyze the GB WRs (8:33) and the potentially awful TB RBs (12:25) ... Ben Gretch gives us a Jarvis Landry stat (19:50) and a Devonta Freeman stat (25:50) to spark some discussion. Does Freeman still have Top 5 upside? What separates him from other RBs in his draft range? ... The most interesting picks from our 12-team, non-PPR mock draft (36:50). Jamey shows us why waiting on QB works so well. Heath touches on the battle in the DEN backfield (42:00). Dave gets us going on Marvin Jones who might be undervalued (47:30) and Adam gets a Sony Michel debate started (50:00). Shouldn't he be a Top 50 pick in non-PPR? ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Today on the show, Marvin Jones was a top five wide receiver in non-PPR and top 12 in PPR just two seasons ago.
Starting point is 00:00:26 Does anyone want Marvin Jones this season? And down the stretch last year, Phillip Lindsey had more carries than Royce Freeman in the red zone, inside the 10-yard line, and inside the five. We're going to talk about the Broncos' backs. Speaking of the Broncos, they start training camp today, so happy training camp
Starting point is 00:00:41 day, everybody. I'm Adam Azer. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Dave, Jamie, Heath, what's up, dudes? Oh, yeah. I thought they started on July 17th. I think they started practicing on July 18th. Is this one of those things where we record one day, but it's airing a different day, so it's actually airing yesterday? No, they started on Thursday. That's their training camp day. No?
Starting point is 00:01:03 They reported yesterday. The training camp opened for the Broncos on July 17th. When did they start practicing? Today. I don't think they have started practicing yet. Today. I don't care that they sat together and had lunch. They are practicing today.
Starting point is 00:01:15 Training camp has begun. We're going to talk about some training camp storylines. Also. Do you know who's there? Who's there? Drink. Oh, he's there. Prisco.
Starting point is 00:01:23 All right. Ben Gretsch is here. Ben, we have a five--man show today i don't know that we've ever done this so you have to make sure it's good pressure's on man man is a little sketchy five-person show what's up bed man then a host i i'm doing great i'm happy to be on it's gonna be interesting there's a lot of voices running around on here. Yeah, and your voice is going to be featured because I asked you to come up with some interesting stats to present to the group, and we'll have them react to it. Stats on Jarvis Landry, Devante Freeman, and James White.
Starting point is 00:01:58 A few guys that slip in some drafts sometimes, and I don't take them, but I don't really know why, so I came up with some stats. I wanted to get some advice on them. Oh, well, you've come to the right place. Okay, four men. Let's get a training camp battle to watch. Also, today, we're going to talk about draft strategies in different formats, non-PPR, half-PPR, full-PPR, 10, 12, 14 teams, and we'll see if we have time for rankings, disputes, and some emails at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. This is our last show of this week, but we have five next week. And then throughout the season, in fact, we'll have six during the regular season. Tell your friends fantasy football
Starting point is 00:02:35 today. All right. So training camp battles to watch. We have a couple of articles on the website for you to read about these types of things. Ben, I'm going to start with you. And I know you want to talk about the 49ers backfield and who is going to be really the number two guy there. Not something we talk about much, but interesting. What are you looking for in San Francisco? Well, yeah, I mean, I think we can pretty much expect that they're going to use at least two backs, right?
Starting point is 00:02:58 And as far as drafters go right now, and as far as ADP is going and how drafts are going, it seems like drafters believe that Tevin Coleman is going to be a lead back. And Jerick McKinnon is the more likely number two, which is kind of just pushing Matt Breida away. I personally really like Matt Breida. I think he was fantastic last year. I believe it's 5.0 yards per carry for his career now. He was even better last year.
Starting point is 00:03:25 He was very efficient in the passing game last year on a bad team, you know, without Jimmy Garoppolo under center for the majority of the season. And he's just 24 years old. Compare him to Jarek McKinnon, who's now 27, I think. They're interesting. They're both similar players. Jarek McKinnon is essentially like a 99th percentile spark athlete, but Matt Breda is like an 89th percentile spark athlete.
Starting point is 00:03:51 He's a very, very good athlete. Definitely has like playmaking game breaking ability. And with McKinnon coming off the ACL tear, I know he has a huge contract, but they signed him before that injury. They signed him before Matt Breda had a really strong 2018 and then tevin coleman i i even think drafters are maybe a little bit too confident in him being the number one
Starting point is 00:04:12 um definitely has the ties to cal shanahan i think he's a very very talented back but there was a time when i thought in the 2019 offseason he would get a really significant contract he only got a two-year 8.55 million deal and no dead money after this year. Kind of interesting. It's a backfield I'm definitely going to have my eyes on throughout August. Yeah, but do we want to draft these guys, Dave,
Starting point is 00:04:36 Jamie, Heath? I mean, Tevin Coleman is going first in our drafts and drafts in general. But do you want to avoid this backfield or get some pieces? I'm not trying to want to avoid this backfield or get some pieces? I'm not trying to get pieces of this backfield. Coleman's the one that I'm the most excited about just because he's the healthiest.
Starting point is 00:04:53 He's got a nice track record. He's familiar with Kyle Shanahan and he's the best suited to, honestly, I think he's suited to play any down and distance, but certainly work the goal line. I agree with Ben. There's going to be two running backs used here. My hunch going into camp, assuming that McKinnon is healthy,
Starting point is 00:05:09 is that McKinnon will be the second guy, and then once he breaks down, it'll be Brita. Brita's kind of the backup for both – for Coleman and McKinnon. Brita's the best ball guy, though, because you're getting him to last. Yeah, I – well, I think that's true. We've definitely had some drafts here lately, I think, where Breida's gone before McKinnon in some of our drafts. So I'm fine with drafting the guy
Starting point is 00:05:30 who goes last. I do have interest in all three of them, even in just a standard league. I think it's a good 12th, 13th round pick to get one of these guys if you can. McKinnon seems to fall further in our drafts than he does a lot of others. Alright, looking at Fantasy Football Calculator, half PPR ADP,
Starting point is 00:05:46 Tevin Coleman 69th, Jerick McKinnon 110th overall, and Brita 154th overall. Our next storyline, let's see, who's next? Let's do Dave Richard. We're looking at another backfield in the NFC West. What do you want to see out of the Seattle camp? I want to see which back is the better back. We know that Pete Carroll craves competition.
Starting point is 00:06:09 He wants it from every position on his team. And he's going to go with the running back who performs the best in practice and in the preseason. This is one that we're going to be able to watch and read reports on and have a pretty good idea on whether it's going to be Chris Carson to lead the way or whether it's going to be Rashad Penny who leads the way. I think both are going to play. And I think both are pretty interchangeable. They both have metrics that are very similar in terms of simple stuff, yards per carry, yards per catch, catch rate. But it's just a matter of who's going to get 14 touches a game versus who's going to get six touches per game. Yeah. So Chris Carson, he was so good last year. He had nine games with 14 or more carries,
Starting point is 00:06:53 or more than 14 carries, I should say. And he averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game in non-PPR, 17.7 in PPR. Would have been a top six back based on his 16-game pace in those nine games with more than 14 carries. So let's look up some draft value, guys, and tell me who you'd rather have at their current ADP. Chris Carson, 47th overall, or Rashad Penny, 75th overall. Jamie, we'll start with you.
Starting point is 00:07:16 Who do you like better at their ADPs? Oh, Penny, it's not close. I'm not touching Chris Carson in the fourth round and probably not in the fifth round, certainly in PPR. I just think that everything that you look for for Rashad Penny, he's checking off the boxes. He's in better shape. He's should. I don't know this. Obviously, I'm not in his head, but should have a better understanding of the offense.
Starting point is 00:07:37 At least he's showing that in or that's the perception. And Carson's not healthy. You know, Carson's dealing with this knee injury. So everything that sort of went awry for him last year with the finger injury that kept him off the field in training camp is working the opposite direction because Carson's not there. So we'll see how long Carson is dealing with this knee injury. If it keeps him off the field in any part of camp,
Starting point is 00:08:01 it's only going to help Penny's case. I will certainly take the value here with Penny, especially if I'm getting him in the field in any part of camp. It's only going to help Penny's case. I will certainly take the value here with Penny, especially if I'm getting him in the 70s. Heath, 75th overall for Penny, 47th overall for Carson. I don't think you're going to find anybody that says Carson's a better value. Okay. I think we're all going to say the same exact thing. All right, then.
Starting point is 00:08:19 Let's move on to our third trading camp battle. I do want to throw in one note, though. Mike Davis last year actually led the backfield in targets with 42. And I think Penny's probably better suited to the pass game work. So that's just another reason to like him. All right. We got a wide receiver battle. Look at Jamie Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:08:38 I mean, it's the second guy. Who's going to be the number two guy behind Devonta Adams? Not necessarily in terms of who's on the field. I think both guys in terms of Geronimo Allison and Mark was valid as Gatling will play. But who's going to be second in targets? You've heard differing things, you know, whether it's the coach, quarterback, other receivers, you know, talk glowingly about each guy. As we saw last year, Allison, really only four healthy games. If you project those four healthy games over 16 games, it's our favorite thing to do. But he would have just been a star.
Starting point is 00:09:07 76 catches, 1156 yards, eight touchdowns. In six of the 12 games that you had Valdez Gantling play without Allison, he had double digits in PPR in six of those. So I really think it comes down to who's the slot guy who ends up playing in that role, replacing Randall Cobb. My guess is it's going to be Allison. But what I've tried to do, for the most part, unsuccessfully, but I've considered it almost every time I get to that round seven,
Starting point is 00:09:36 round eight range. I don't take them there, but that's where I start to – it crosses my mind trying to get both. You know, the friendship strategy, in essence, with the two Packers guys because if one emerges, you're great. And, you know, it could be a situation where, you know, you may be alternating them throughout the course of the season. But I don't think Devontae Adams is getting all the targets.
Starting point is 00:09:53 He's going to get a lot. But somebody's going to be a pretty decent fantasy option here between those two guys. I think Allison's going to win the slot role. The question's just going to be, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets more targets. The question's going to be whether Valdez-Gantling can be that much more efficient and whether he's more used in the red zone, which I think he might be.
Starting point is 00:10:11 I would love to get both at some point. It never really seems like it's possible because as soon as one of them goes, someone else takes the other one. I don't know if it's even that great of an idea, to be honest, because we do think Aaron Jones can see an uptick in catches out of the backfield. Jimmy Graham is still on this team. I know no one wants to draft Jimmy Graham, but tight end
Starting point is 00:10:31 has been a big part of the West Coast offense forever. That's what Matt LaFleur is bringing, and he must see something in Jimmy Graham to keep him involved. I like the concept of Geronimo in the slot. It reminds me of Cooper Cup, Mo Sanu, tall slot receivers who can make some easy plays in single coverage.
Starting point is 00:10:51 And so Allison's the one I'm going for. I'm not really even thinking about MVS at this point. It's funny because his ADP is higher. MVS? Yeah. Yeah, Allison was way higher until the report came out that MVS is number two. It's funny, and that made me like Allison more, just thinking about the slot.
Starting point is 00:11:09 Yeah, it just depends. Are we talking Randall Cobb five years ago or Randall Cobb the last three years? Because he's been useless. Right, and it's, you know, who do you want to believe? Who do you want to believe the story's about? Do you want to believe them liking Allison more? Or there's certainly been more smoke in MVS's direction so and when
Starting point is 00:11:28 you look at the breakouts in the past in the Packers uh water super core that have kind of come out of nowhere Randall Cobb's obviously a good a good example to draw back to but the heath mentioned the red zone roll the high touchdown rate spikes that we've seen from guys like James Jones Devante Adams breaking out after a couple bad years, opposite Jordy Nelson. Sometimes it's been that second outside receiver as well. The coverage kind of goes the other way, you know, to the number one or to the slot. And then this second outside guy ends up being somebody that Rodgers finds in the red zone for some big TD seasons as well. I think the touchdowns is a big part of it because Rodgers has had a number of receivers
Starting point is 00:12:05 that have broken out throughout his career with just some ridiculous TD rates. All right. Finally, final note on this, Geronimo Allison
Starting point is 00:12:12 averaged 14.5 points per game in those four games that Jamie referenced. That 14.5 points per game in PPR, that would have been good enough to be
Starting point is 00:12:20 22nd last year. 14.5 points per game, 22nd in PPR. All right, our final training camp battle that we're going to talk about is in Tampa Bay. Heath, who's going to win that Tampa Bay running back job? Nobody knows that, but it is the most exciting camp battle, I believe.
Starting point is 00:12:40 Listen, if you listen to anyone in Tampa Bay or any of the writers that cover that team, it certainly sounds like they all expect Peyton Barber to not only be the starter at the start of camp, but to be the starter at the start of week one. And they don't anticipate Ronald Jones taking the job away. If you listen to anyone, almost, in the fantasy industry, especially someone on this podcast, Ben, you will hear Ronald Jones needs to be the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It doesn't matter that he was one of the worst rookie running backs ever because he was hurt part of the year and it was a small sample size
Starting point is 00:13:13 and he's still very, very talented and you should just trust his talent. And then if you listen to me, I just hope that Bruce gets a chance because Bruce Anderson is free on draft day. I took him in our pick-by-pick series in the 14th round. There's been a little bit of buzz about him. There's been more buzz coming out of camp about Ronald Jones.
Starting point is 00:13:31 It's going to be fascinating to watch. If I had to handicap it right now, I would still say Peyton Barber starts week one and leads the team in touches. And Ronald Jones is going ahead. Looking at the ADP, Ronald Jones is going 93rd overall. Peyton Barber, 122nd overall. Do you guys like those ADPs?
Starting point is 00:13:49 I do for Jones. I mean, I am getting a little bit concerned about Jones, but the reason I keep grabbing him in a lot of our mocks and stuff is when you get to that range, first of all, I tend to fade running backs in the rounds 3 to five or six range and kind of stock up on receivers, maybe get an elite tight end, depending on where I'm at. When I get to that range, there's not a lot of running backs that I think can pretty easily, that I can kind of tell myself a story could pretty easily be the lead back and be a really productive lead back for
Starting point is 00:14:21 their offense. And I think Jones could could very well be that the fact that they didn't bring in a ton of competition didn't spend a lot of free agency money or draft capital to bring in a running back to me is more of a vote of confidence in ron jones who was their second round pick last year than it would be in payton barber who was you know a former udfa who has like i think a 3.8 yards per carry average over his three years he's not really been good i mean he had over 250 touches last year and didn't even hit a thousand total yards i mean that's like yeah that's below replacement level stuff like it's really bad and i don't i don't disagree with anything ben's saying
Starting point is 00:14:55 it's just the counter argument to that is he was so bad and ronald jones was still considerably worse than him well i think it's almost like he's like a poor man's Rashad Penny to me because Penny didn't know what he was doing. But Penny figured it out. I don't know if Penny figured it out. I think Penny's athleticism just kind of shined through on a team that was a little bit better at running the ball. I think if you're – the way I approach it is I want the guy with the highest
Starting point is 00:15:18 ceiling, and it may be Bruce Anderson. We just don't know. But I don't think that if both guys – everything works out well, Ronald Jones should destroy Peyton Barber if he gets it and if he's right. But it's just a matter of will he get it and will he be right. I don't like the fact that he gained weight. I hate when a running back gains weight. The fact that he bulked up because – I mean, Ben,
Starting point is 00:15:40 we've been fighting for Ronald Jones in a few of these drafts. It just really makes me nervous when a guy who, small hands, got bigger, you know, the only thing that's sort of still the saving grace is the other guys on the roster and what everybody's saying about him. They want him to be the guy. It's very clear. Bruce Arians, James Winston, I'm sure Jason Light, the general manager, they want him to be the guy because otherwise it's just another second-round pick that they've wasted
Starting point is 00:16:05 for the second year or two of the last three years. To Heath's point about how Jones has been a lot worse, I know I keep harping on this, but there's a big difference between Peyton Barber being really bad replacement level with over 250 touches and Ron Jones being worse on 30 touches. The sample size there is massively different. We know Peyton Barber's nothing. We don't really know about Ronald Jones.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Yeah, yeah, Heath. Take that. Sorry I'm not in on those fights to get Ronald Jones. Well, I would just say that's true. The game sample size we have, but there's a reason that, like, part of the reason Ronald Jones got 30 touches is because of injuries. Part of it's because he was bad in practice, too. He was bad in the preseason on the touches
Starting point is 00:16:43 he got last year. I mean, it's true. I mean, the sample size isn't just 30 touches. He was bad in other ways as well. But it's still small, you know. Okay. Let's wrap on that and recapping the training camp battles that we talked about. Again, there are more on the website. But the Green Bay wide receivers, the Tampa Bay running backs,
Starting point is 00:17:01 the San Francisco running backs, and Chris Carson and Rashad Penny in Seattle. Some things you need to know about CBS Sports HQ beginning on Monday. Fantasy Football Today, the video version, is at noon Eastern on CBS Sports HQ. How do you watch HQ? You download the CBS Sports app, and that's free. Everything's free. You don't have to sign up or anything. You put it on your Roku, your Apple TV, your Amazon Fire, anything, any smart TV or app that you use.
Starting point is 00:17:29 And you can watch it in your living room. It's awesome. And we have other podcasts that you need to know about, like the Pick 6 podcast for all you football fans, a daily NFL show. Go to cbssports.com slash podcast or podcasts. Either one will get you there and get our complete listing. Just for FFT, for all of training camp, we are going to have
Starting point is 00:17:50 every day someone of our one of our colleagues at a camp. We're going to have players from those respective teams on our shows. We're going to have some beat writers mixed in. It's going to be really fun getting you ready for your draft prep.
Starting point is 00:18:10 I'm excited. Just working with the producers and the things that we're doing, it's going to be really, really cool, the stuff that we have on our video program. Right. And FFT has been going on for a long time, and we've never really had stuff like that or infrequently. So a lot being put into it.
Starting point is 00:18:23 It's going to be a great show. It's going to be very helpful for you guys. That's on HQ at noon Eastern, Monday through Friday, beginning next week. It's basically an extension of this. Yeah, only with guests. Okay, Jarvis Landry, Devante Freeman, James White. Some fun stats from Ben when we come back. We also have some news and notes and the most interesting draft picks
Starting point is 00:18:42 in our 12-team non-PPR mock draft that we did on Monday night, including Marvin Jones' 100th overall. Stick around. Much more FFT to come right after this. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory.
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Starting point is 00:20:09 Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks, and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. All right, Ben Gretch, how are you feeling about your killer stats today? I mean, I'm feeling all right about the stats. I'm not sure what to feel about the players. I mean, these are guys, I think I mentioned at the top, that they fall. And I find myself passing on them still sometimes when they do fall.
Starting point is 00:20:40 But I don't have any conviction in that. There's some players that I'm very clearly avoiding even when they fall, but these guys, I'm just like, maybe I should take them here, but I just wind up not grabbing them in enough leagues. Jarvis Landry, Devontae Freeman, they're not the sexiest names. They're kind of boring, but
Starting point is 00:20:57 they're guys that kind of slip through the cracks and they could potentially provide some value, so they're interesting guys, I think, to think about. I'm pretty pumped about Devontae Freeman. I'm probably going to be the most pumped about Devontae Freeman. But let's start with Jarvis Landry. If you heard our projections episodes a couple of weeks ago,
Starting point is 00:21:14 you heard the ADOT stat, average depth of target. So that's what we're going to talk about with Landry. Just explain this stat. It doesn't require much explanation. And what you noticed with Landry last year. Yeah, so average depth is just how far down the field the throw is, not like how far the ball traveled, but how many yard lines it moved from the line of scrimmage.
Starting point is 00:21:35 So if you throw a first and 10 pass to the sticks, it's got 10 yards of depth. And then it's the average of all those depths. For Jarvis Landry in his four years in Miami, he was a slot receiver. He saw a lot of underneath targets. His highest average depth of target in that time in those four seasons for a given season was seven point seven. The other three seasons were all, I think, below six point four. They were all just like very small numbers for reference.
Starting point is 00:22:01 The average tight end either last year or the last couple of years. I can't remember what I what i pulled from my projections but the the average i have for tight end is about 7.6 uh of depth yards of depth for a wide receiver it's typically about 11.1 so landry was even in his highest season in miami was more like uh like an average tight end in terms of how far downfield he was getting his targets last year he went he went to Cleveland and becomes the number one, and his average depth of target was 11.7. So it was the highest of his career, and it was the highest of his career by four yards. Now they have Odell Beckham, and I'm projecting that to actually come significantly farther down because I do use this depth in my projections because it impacts, like, catch rate, for instance.
Starting point is 00:22:43 Shorter passes are caught more, but also it impacts like yards per reception because shorter passes tend to have a lower yards per reception so um it's something i look at i'm projecting that to come down pretty significantly back down into the eights range um but i just like i can't really figure out jarvis landry's role i can't really figure out how many targets to project him for because i do have otto beckham coming in and pretty easily leading the team. He's a really interesting and kind of difficult guy to figure out in this new Cleveland Browns offense. Right. So your argument is that Landry would have a more Landry-like role because he was just doing things that he hadn't done before in his first year with Cleveland. You bring in Beckham and Landry all of a sudden starts doing the things that made him really good.
Starting point is 00:23:25 A top 20 PPR wide receiver four straight years. Of course, in those years, he had a major target share every single season. He was first on his team in targets. That's not going to happen. Right now, he's going 61st overall, guys. And I feel the same way that Ben does about Jarvis Landry. I kind of struggle with it. I never
Starting point is 00:23:42 end up taking him. What do you think about him? That's the second-to-last pick of round... Well, yeah. So 60th overall, I guess, is his ADP. It's tied. So last pick of round five in a 12-team league. Every time I draft,
Starting point is 00:23:57 I find myself moving Jarvis Landry down in my rankings. His average targets per game with Kitchens calling plays was 6.9. That's not nice. And Odell Beckham's now there. I think that that's going to be the average target for him this year. So if he's averaging 6.9, call it 7, 7 targets per game, he's going to catch 6 of those. He's going to average 8 yards a catch. So that's 10 or 11 PPR points a week. He's never been that low.
Starting point is 00:24:28 I think this is a whole new world for him. And I know he's a really good talent, but I don't see him being a reliable contributor, certainly in non PPR. Okay. How do you guys feel about him? Jamie and Heath Jarvis
Starting point is 00:24:43 Landry 60th overall. It's worse on Fancy Football Calculator. He's the 24th receiver off the board. Where's he going? It's PPR. Trying to do the math. Middle of round five. Okay.
Starting point is 00:25:03 So, no, it's a little better. I'm looking at half PPR. I'm saying worse in terms of going too soon. Oh, he's going too soon. I'm sorry. You're saying he's going higher. Nobody wants him at this cost. Nobody wants him.
Starting point is 00:25:16 Okay. There you go. If he falls to the right spot, it's not a bad situation. But, you know, I think it's two things. One, it's name recognition. People get, you know, overited about names they know, and it's the Browns hype. I want a piece of the Browns offense. Look, there could be a situation where, I know Freddie Kitchens is the one we're looking at, but Todd Monken's influence could be great. We loved Adam Humphreys when he was getting
Starting point is 00:25:39 all those targets last year. But if Jarvis Landry is Adam Humphreys, that's a terrible ADP. Not if you're getting that production. What do you mean? That stretch that Adam Humphreys was giving us? He was scoring a ton in there. That helped him a lot. He was productive. Was he a top 30 wide receiver last year? Not for the season.
Starting point is 00:25:58 No. I get what you're saying, Jamie, because there was that stretch. It wasn't very long. It was like five or six weeks. It was a month. Where he was getting good numbers. But obviously Jarvis Landry is much better than Adam Humphreys. Or at least he should be. Yeah. You guys have Landry just outside your top 30 and we are not willing to commit a top 60
Starting point is 00:26:13 pick. Top 30 wide receiver. Top 60 overall pick on Jarvis Landry. Our next... Okay, I am in on Devontae Freeman, Ben. So you have an interesting stat that makes me a little bit hesitant. In the last three seasons before, you know, he played two games last year,
Starting point is 00:26:33 Freeman was RB1, RB6, and RB14 in PPR and basically the same in non-PPR. He was like RB1, RB6, and RB13 or 12 maybe. But I know he's good and I know the Falcons give him the ball a lot near the end zone. No more Tevin Coleman. I don't really think, and I know the Falcons give him the ball a lot near the end zone. No more Tevin Coleman. I don't really think much of Ido Smith personally. So I like Freeman.
Starting point is 00:26:51 Give me your Devontae Freeman stat. Yeah, so the thing with Freeman is like Tevin Coleman's gone now. He's been kind of in a timeshare when he's been healthy. He obviously missed the majority of last season. Is Ido Smith going to fill this tevin coleman role or does davante freeman potentially have the the chance to be the more of the number one than he's been over the last couple of seasons and the stat is just that if you go back to 2015 when he was the number one overall running back that year he played over 80 of the offensive snaps eight different times he got at least 25 touches in seven games in 32 games
Starting point is 00:27:26 since then mainly in 2016 and 17 before you know missing most of 2018 he's been over 75 of the snaps just one time um so not even getting it really anywhere near that 80 and up threshold that i kind of think of as a workhorse back. And he's gotten 25 touches in those 32 games just twice. So, you know, going from doing that almost 50% of the time in that big season he had in 2015 to very rarely doing it. Now he's 27 years old. You know, he just missed there. They also drafted Kadri Allison. It's a for me, it's kind of tough to imagine that he's going to go back to this workload, you know, later on in his career. So I'm just kind of curious what the thoughts are on that. Yeah. How often do you see it happen with a running back that has, you know, downward production? And then they come back. They say they're healthy. The headlines are good.
Starting point is 00:28:26 Offensive lines upgraded, all that jazz. And then they come out and they produce at a high level. How often do you see it? Yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't necessarily disagree with what you said, Adam. And I don't have a lot of faith in Ido Smith being good. I don't think it matters. I don't, I don't think it's like they're going to play three or four games.
Starting point is 00:28:43 And like, man, you know, Smith's not very good. We're going to give Devontae Freeman 25 touches a game. I just think with his injury history and his age and the way they've chopped up carries for the last three or four years, they're going to chop up carries. Yeah, they are. They are. But even if Freeman
Starting point is 00:29:00 gets hurt or Smith gets hurt, they're just going to chop up carries with all of a sudden one of these guys. But who's going to get the red zone carries because he's always been very involved there. I expect Freeman. I expect Freeman too. He's had a 70-catch season in his history. Are they going to get him back?
Starting point is 00:29:14 He won't have that. Are they going to get him back as a 50-catch? What year was that? I'm sorry, Jamie. What year was the 70-catch? 2015, 73 catches, then 54 the next year. I think Cutter was the OC then too. There's two things here.
Starting point is 00:29:25 First off, if you're expecting— Cutter actually came in 20—left after 2014 before Freeman broke out. I did check on that. There's a couple things. First off, if you're expecting him to be that same guy, then you should be drafting him in the first two rounds. No, you don't have to. But I think he's got the potential to perform that way. But you have to have realistic expectations.
Starting point is 00:29:43 I like Devontae Freeman a lot. I'm not expecting him to get back to that level again. No. But I am expecting him to be a very good fantasy option. We were just talking about this for HQ. You know, look at the Rams. The Rams have a running back situation that they're clearly concerned about no matter what they're saying, right? Because they bring back Malcolm Brown and they go out and they get Daryl Henderson in the draft.
Starting point is 00:30:04 If the Falcons were so concerned about Devontae Freeman's health and you, I mean, I talked to Dan Quinn about this. You know, it's he likes Ido Smith. I don't think he loves Ido Smith. And they went out and they got a guy in the fifth round. So I think it kind of shows you that they're
Starting point is 00:30:20 comfortable enough that Devontae Freeman is going to be healthy. Now, clearly, nobody is looking at the running back position saying, that guy's guaranteed to play 17 games or 16 games. He won't play 17. But I think you look at offensive line upgrades, better defense because those guys are healthy, and track record for him.
Starting point is 00:30:42 So a 27-year-old version of Devontae Freeman, could he be a top 15 running back? and track record for him. So a 27-year-old version of Devontae Freeman, could he be a top 15 running back? I think that's safe if he plays 16 games. And the upside's better than that because we've seen it. So I'm taking a chance on him at his ADP for sure. Where is he in PPR? He's end of round three. What number running back?
Starting point is 00:31:07 17th back off the board. Okay. That's perfect. So the one thing that stood out to me about what Ben said is that in 2017, he finishes, I believe it's the 13th running back, 14th running back, and those numbers would have led him to be the 16th running back in 2018. It's perfect. He only played 13 games.
Starting point is 00:31:25 He played 14 games that year, and he left Week 10 after two carries. So he was a top 15 running back in both formats, Devontae Freeman, in 13 games. I just think that he's good. One, he's the best guy on the team.
Starting point is 00:31:41 He's going to score touchdowns. We like their offense quite a bit. I just think the hard thing is we all probably like Devontae Freeman about the same. Maybe I'm a little higher. It's just really hard to know, you know, Devontae Freeman versus Marlon Mack versus Kerryon Johnson versus Phillip Lindsay. It's a big group of running backs there that are going to, you know, I think throughout the course of the next month, we're going to figure out ways to separate them in our own minds. And I don't know where to put Freeman in that group. I'd put Carrion ahead of him.
Starting point is 00:32:11 I'd put Freeman ahead of Mack in PPR for sure. And all those guys right now for sure ahead of Lindsey with the talk coming out of Denver. Yeah, like the ADP from 15 on. Leonard Fournette's at 15. Marlon Mack's at 16. Freeman's at 17. Henry's at 18, Carrion's at 19. I'm with you, Heath.
Starting point is 00:32:29 The only guy I would take over him in that range is Carrion. So in that range, for me, I'm always looking at like which of these guys have top five potential. I've kind of bashed Derek Henry a little bit because I don't think he has the receiving workload to get there. I think he'd have to just throw out a ridiculous needle of rushing efficiency and touchdowns that I think is a really challenging thing for him to get all the way up to top five value. I definitely think he can return value at his ADP. And so, Jamie, I kind of have a question for you because it sounds like, with what you were saying, you feel pretty confident Devonta Freeman is going to beat his ADP if he stays healthy for 16 games.
Starting point is 00:33:01 No, no, no, no. I think this is the right spot for him. He's the 17th running back on the board in round three. Like, that to me is my expectation for him. That's why I'm ranked. Right. No, no. And I agree. I agree.
Starting point is 00:33:10 I mean, I actually completely agree. I think he's a little bit too low where he's going in terms of what his expectation should be if he stays healthy. I think he's pretty easily going to beat that. But my question for you is, do you think he has top five upside? Like, legitimate top five upside?
Starting point is 00:33:24 Because I think Aaron Jones does. I think Marlon Mack might. I think Kerryon Johnson does if he gets enough work. Do you think Devontae Freeman has that? Yes. I do too. I think almost all of those running backs do though. That's why I think receiver-receiver strategy and then two of those guys is a –
Starting point is 00:33:43 I'm probably not going to do it. It's a slam dunk. Well, I like to go running back receiver with my first two picks but yes i i think that those that group of running backs is really exciting yeah i mean i'll reference the i know you're gonna talk about i'm not gonna be here for it but chris hassell uh one of our hosts in cbs sports hq he went in the is nonPPR. He went Devontae Adams at 12, Travis Kelsey at 13, so the round one, two swing. And then he came back
Starting point is 00:34:10 and he took Kerryon Johnson, Marlon Mack. He could have had, I mean, Freeman went a little bit before that, but that to me is perfect. Yep, I agree. It's absolutely perfect. And I don't really think
Starting point is 00:34:19 the wide receivers in that late round three into round four range have as much upside. I don't know how you guys feel. This is, again, non-PPR, so take into account. But Tyree Kill was the first receiver in round four. We know what that situation is.
Starting point is 00:34:33 Julian Edelman, Robert Woods, those are the guys. Brandon Cooks. Right. If you go take out Kelsey, if you don't want to take a tight end, he could have had Devontae Adams and Juju, Adams and Beckham. I mean, I would love that in any format, any situation to get to those receivers or Kelsey and those two backs. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:50 All right, cool. So we were going to do another, uh, stat from, from Ben, but I think we'll move on to our next segment here. We'll talk about James White.
Starting point is 00:34:57 Some other time I actually talked about white, uh, a couple of shows ago, run down some news and notes real quick. Emmanuel Sanders is going to avoid the Pup List, guys. That's cool. Well, when the Broncos actually start training camp, we'll find out.
Starting point is 00:35:11 He is looking at videos of him running routes and stopping and going currently. It's encouraging. It's really encouraging. The one thing you've got to worry about with injuries like this is the second injury because they overcompensate for something. Well, he's a smart guy.
Starting point is 00:35:28 Hopefully that's not the case, but that's usually what happens. Okay. Not a ton of big news items. So Dan Quinn thinks highly of Austin Hooper. He thinks Austin Hooper is ready to go to another level. Anyone else feel that way? It would be bad news for Devontae Freeman. Yeah, I mean, it would be bad.
Starting point is 00:35:47 I don't see where the targets would come in because some news is going to be involved, but particularly Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, you know, pretty big breakout last year.
Starting point is 00:35:54 I expect to take a step forward as well. Tennessee offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said he intends to ride Derrick Henry. That's according to Titans Online.
Starting point is 00:36:02 That's a pretty big news item. As long as he doesn't FedEx Derrick Henry. Yes. His to Titans Online. That's a pretty big news item. As long as he doesn't FedEx, Derrick Henry. Yes. His father founded FedEx, right? Yes. Cincinnati rookie running back Rodney Anderson expected open training camp on the pup list.
Starting point is 00:36:16 Arizona waived offensive tackle Desmond Harrison. He's facing assault charges. Martavis Bryant applied for reinstatement, and Vikings running back Rock Thomas is suspended three games. Dave, did I say anything there that matters? No. Okay.
Starting point is 00:36:31 You mean after the Arthur Smith FedEx joke? Yeah, yeah, which was great. No, no. Rodney Anderson's probably not going to play this year. Okay. The 12-team draft that we did on Monday night. So Jamie has to bounce in like two minutes. So we're going to get his...
Starting point is 00:36:48 I asked you guys for the most interesting pick. We had a 12-team non-PPR draft on Monday night. Jamie made us draft on a Monday night. It was really mean. But I enjoyed the draft. I'm sorry you missed The Bachelor, buddy. I never once... The Bachelorette, whatever it is.
Starting point is 00:37:01 Never once seen The Bachelor or The Bachelorette. I could proudly, proudly say. Oh, it's a CBS show, right? What is wrong with me? Why haven't I watched The Bachelor and The Bachelorette more often? It's not a CBS show, but good. It's not? Oh, it's on ABC?
Starting point is 00:37:13 Here's an edit for the podcast. That show sucks. I'm never watching The Bachelor. Okay, I was right the first time. I asked you guys for the most interesting picks, and Jamie, you said Jimmy Garoppolo. First pick of round 15. 17th quarterback off the board, 169th overall.
Starting point is 00:37:28 Jimmy Garoppolo was the most interesting pick of that draft for you. My only quarterback. Did you do that by design? After a point. So there were some things going on with this draft. Somebody didn't show up, so I was drafting for them. And so sometimes I get a little bit confused with the teams that I'm picking for,
Starting point is 00:37:48 and I was like, okay, this, that, whatever. I need the running backs here, receivers there, put a couple kids to sleep. It was a little hectic. And then it was, I'm like, okay, who's going to take two quarterbacks? Who's going to be that guy? Dave was one.
Starting point is 00:38:04 I forget, somebody else did it. And then it got to round 11, maybe? Round 12? I'm trying to find it. When you took Garoppolo? Round 12. It was round 12. And our buddy, Jay Derrindar, the average drafter.
Starting point is 00:38:17 What do we call him? The average Joe? Average Joe. Average Jay Derrindar. Average Jay Derrindar. He had his quarter, I think it was Roethlisberger. And it was right before I picked, and Russell Wilson was still there. I'm like, all right, great.
Starting point is 00:38:28 I waited until round 12. I'll get Russell Wilson. He's not a top 12 guy for me, but just outside, number 13, perfect. And then he took Russell Wilson. I'm like, you know what? Screw it. I'm not going to take a quarterback until the end. And then it was between Garoppolo and Dak Prescott,
Starting point is 00:38:43 and I just took Garoppolo after I took my kicker on purpose. Great job. I mean, getting a top five quarterback in the 15th round is very impressive. Garoppolo was on pace for 4,900 yards in the five games he started in 2017. He'll probably exceed that. I don't see why he wouldn't. No, in all seriousness, I seriousness, are you okay with it? Am I okay with it? Yeah. Is it ideal? No.
Starting point is 00:39:08 I have him ranked as a top 15 quarterback. I think there are... You can make a case for about 25 guys that could be number one quarterbacks this year. It's just such a deep position. You'd obviously rather have somebody that's a top 10 guy than a top 15 guy, depending on where you have somebody like Garoppolo ranked.
Starting point is 00:39:23 But it is what it is. Who do they play week one? Tampa Bay. Oh, light it up. And then add Cincinnati in week two. Great way to start streaming. Streaming? What is it that I see in Garoppolo that you don't, Heath?
Starting point is 00:39:40 I don't know. Well, what is it that you don't? Where do you have ranked? Let's start with that. 20-second-ish or something? All right, what is it that you don't like about Jimmy Garoppolo? There's not anything in particular that I don't like. It's just, as Jamie was just saying, there's 20-plus quarterbacks you could make an argument for being a top-12 quarterback.
Starting point is 00:39:59 I've not seen enough from Jimmy Garoppolo in his 17 years of limited action to prove to me that he's an elite quarterback. He's fine. I'm not saying he's below average. I don't know yet that he's definitely better than Matthew Stafford. Who's your 21st quarterback?
Starting point is 00:40:18 I think Andy Dalton. You've seen enough from Andy Dalton to take him ahead of Jimmy Garoppolo? Far more extended stretches of success than Jimmy Garoppolo. Yes. How many fantasy points do you get for experience? What do you mean? Well, because that's what you're talking about.
Starting point is 00:40:30 Well, you were asking what I'd seen out of Andy Dalton, and he has had a season where he was a top five quarterback. Yes. He has had a season. But I have the Garoppolo go. Bye, Jamie. Thank you for participating. Okay, so Ben, I'll get you in. Ben, you have Andy Dalton projected for more fantasy points
Starting point is 00:40:46 than Garoppolo, right? Yeah, I haven't just had him. I was just pulling that up. They're right in that same range. But even if you have him projected for more fantasy points... I would take Garoppolo first. Upside. That's the part I don't understand
Starting point is 00:41:02 is we have seen Andy Dalton be a top five quarterback. Oh, my gosh. There's no way. He's not that good. That was a fluky season. He definitely has better weapons than Jimmy Garoppolo does. Actually, he does have better weapons,
Starting point is 00:41:16 but I love the 49ers' weapons. I think that's a sleeping giant. Even A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd? He has better weapons. He does. But Kittle, Pettis, all these young receivers, all the running backs who can catch passes, and Kyle Shanahan.
Starting point is 00:41:30 We can all agree that these are quarterbacks that you're going to be able to find late on draft day. It's a matter of who you think has more upside and who you want to start the season off with. Cincinnati week one plays at Seattle. Yeah, Dak, Jamie mentioned, was available too. And Dak has a really easy uh early part of the schedule of the season as well yeah um but I think the the broader point rather than
Starting point is 00:41:51 you know just arguing about Jimmy Garoppolo is Jamie took this strategy to the absolute extreme and I think what happens a lot of times is people have kind of strategies or ideas that they want to do but they they kind of just go half half into it and they're like okay i'm going to be late round quarterback but then you know they do some other things in the draft or maybe they need to be targeting depth at a certain position in the middle rounds but they give up on their late round quarterback strategy and then it ends up affecting the depth at that other position uh you know whatever it is say they went really running back heavy early they need to be grabbing some mid-round receivers and they they give up on that quarterback, late-round quarterback idea
Starting point is 00:42:26 because they see a guy they need to grab. I think the biggest point here from a strategic perspective is you can take this to the absolute extreme this year. There's a lot of quarterbacks. You can grab Dak Prescott or Jimmy Garoppolo or even Andy Dalton if you need to almost literally in the last round of a 12-team draft unless you're in a league where everybody drafts two quarterbacks. And yeah, you probably want to do it a little bit earlier.
Starting point is 00:42:48 But you can wait really, really long to get a quarterback this year if you need to and if you want to. Yeah, definitely. All right, Heath, the most interesting pick of this 12-team non-PPR draft for you was Phillip Lindsey. He went 39th overall. He was RB22, third pick of the fourth round. Phillip Lindsey.
Starting point is 00:43:05 And this is another one of those situations kind of like Tampa Bay, where it seems like we in the industry all want and expect one thing to happen, and all the people associated with the Broncos keep saying another thing. But we have had multiple reports now that the Broncos plan on a full committee at running back. Royce Freeman has gotten all the work in the offseason because Phillip Lindsey has dealt with a wrist injury and been unavailable. Freeman was drafted higher.
Starting point is 00:43:32 Not that that necessarily matters, but it's a point of evidence considering we only have one year of data with these two running backs. I like Phillip Lindsey more than I like royce freeman there should not be as big of difference between their adps as there is and as of right now i would not feel comfortable taking lindsey in the first four rounds i took him with the last pick of round four i think In this draft?
Starting point is 00:44:05 No. He went 39th. Three-receiver PPR draft yesterday. We're doing the slow draft. I believe, yeah, I think I took him 48th overall. So that's PPR. This was non-PPR. All right, Dave, what's your take on the Broncos' backfield? Because Lindsey, I mean, was so much better than Royce Freeman last year.
Starting point is 00:44:23 But he's right. I mean, the reports are not great if you're a Lindsey believer. I think he was madly efficient. He had 10 games with 15-plus touches, two games with 20-plus touches, and he averaged about 3.1 targets per game. I've got concerns about this offense being led by Flacco, this offense with play calls being made by Rick Scangarello.
Starting point is 00:44:47 We can say what we want about Vic Fangio and how he'll want to have a conservative offense. Lindsey already had the wrist injury. Is that going to weigh on their minds when they get into short yardage situations? I think he had a good year last year with almost 1,300 total and 10 total touchdowns. I'm going to say he falls shy of that.
Starting point is 00:45:06 All that being said, you know how I feel about Devontae Freeman. I think I'm still ready to take—I think it'll come down to format, where Lindsey is probably going to be the one I'll choose in non, and in PPR, I'll take the chance on Freeman. They're both very close for me as guys who will be middle-of-the-pack RB2s. Royce Freeman missed two games midseason last year. When he came back, that's kind of like what I've really been focusing on and how the carries were divvied up. So Lindsey, in the final six games that he played, had 82 carries.eman had 42 carries lindsey had six touchdowns freeman had one that that would all be a lot more relevant to me if all of the coaches hadn't changed
Starting point is 00:45:52 okay fair enough and another thing i i feel like we do this a little bit too much like just generally with rookies like we shouldn't expect rookies to come in and have a monster workload and none of us do we don't expect that from the rookie class this year. We're talking about how, you know, Miles Sanders or David Montgomery, they might work into it. And I understand obviously Philip Lindsay was a rookie last year as well, but Royce Freeman's situation is so much, it's so similar to Ron Jones's and Richard Penny's as well, which are,
Starting point is 00:46:20 you know, all first or second round running backs last year, all in the situation this year where they're going in similar rounds in fantasy drafts, but they're presumed number twos right now. And I think it's so funny that we don't necessarily expect any of these guys, when we think about it before their rookie season, to be really, really productive. But then I think we put too much weight on their rookie seasons when we look back. I think you should expect progression and not necessarily um that every player is going to be good and be a hit in the nfl but you should
Starting point is 00:46:50 expect guys to step forward like like calvin redley's a guy i'm struggling with a lot we should expect a lot of regression in his touchdowns last year and typically a player with that kind of profile i would fade but i also think he can grow like what he did in his rookie season is so good. A lot of rookies don't do that. So I think he can grow into more targets. He can grow into more production. Because we should expect that from guys in year one to year two. I agree with everything Ben just said.
Starting point is 00:47:16 But something caught my ear and I need to clarify it. Is Ben calling Ronald Jones Ron Jones? Because if so, I think that's fantastic. I wish I said that I did not sounds like yes you did say that you 100 said Ron yeah all right that's his name now okay Ron Ron Jones much better than Ronald Jones oh it's great I know Ron Jones gonna be great this year all right uh so Philip Lindsay good stuff there Dave your most interesting pick was fourth overall the ninth round ninth round I should have was fourth overall in the ninth round.
Starting point is 00:47:45 Ninth round. I should have said fourth overall. That was kind of deceiving. Hundredth overall. It was Christian McCaffrey. How interesting. Marvin Jones at hundredth overall. Fourth pick of the ninth round.
Starting point is 00:47:57 Wide receiver 38. As I mentioned at the top of the show, Marvin Jones was a top five receiver in this format, non-PPR two years ago. Obviously, we don't expect that again. Also, I must let all of our listeners know there's no way we're getting to draft strategy based on format in today's show. But don't worry, we have like 60 shows coming up before you draft. But Dave, Marvin Jones, why did that stand out as an interesting pick? Well, first of all, this is a player that we really haven't talked a lot about.
Starting point is 00:48:26 And I think there's a pretty good reason why we haven't talked about him. There's nothing exciting about him. He might be the number two receiver on a run-first team with a quarterback who might not be asked to chuck it a lot. Last year in PPR, he had two games above 15 points. He had one, two, three, four games with 12 plus in full PPR. He was equally inconsistent and inefficient in non. Just a question that I want to put out there to the panel.
Starting point is 00:49:00 Why would you draft Marvin Jones? I would say this was the ninth round he has played three seasons in Detroit he's averaged over 16 games 60 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns that is better than a vast majority of the receivers are going to be drafted at that point or later I think it's great value
Starting point is 00:49:24 I think like he does in terms of like we we're we lean on our projections a lot both of us and for me i i have a decision on marvin jones in almost every draft because in my projections he comes out a lot higher than i want to consider him i totally understand dave's point i don't think he necessarily has like a lot of upside. Like this is not a very pass heavy offense. I think he's definitely the number two behind Kenny Galladay, who I think is a much more talented receiver, who I also have a hard time pulling the trigger on because we know this is going to be a run heavy offense. But the reason that you project him really well and he is good value and he makes a lot of sense in this range is he doesn't have much competition for targets.
Starting point is 00:50:05 I don't think Danny Amendola is not going to be Golden Tate. Golden Tate used to get so many targets in this offense. TJ Hawkinson as a rookie tight end, it's really tough for rookie tight ends to come in and be productive right away. He's definitely going to be involved, but he's not going to be like a target hog, I don't think, right away. There's not a lot of other competition. It's Galladay and Jones,
Starting point is 00:50:22 and I kind of expect them both to get plenty of targets. Yep. Yeah, wide receiver 38 off the board in this draft. not a lot of other competition. It's Galladay and Jones, and I kind of expect them both to get plenty of targets. Wide receiver 38 off the board in this draft. He's not exciting, but sometimes you need unexciting guys that you can throw in in a bye week or as a flex or whatever if you have injuries, and Marvin Jones might be that guy. My most interesting
Starting point is 00:50:39 pick in this 12-team non-PPR league was Sonny Michel. Sonny Michel, we had that interview with Ben Volan earlier this offseason. And coincidentally, I'm not saying it was his interview, but it just seems like since then, Sonny Michel's draft stock just seems to be falling. And he went 52nd overall, fourth pick of the fifth round, RB26. I prefer Tevin Coleman one round later, which is what happened. But
Starting point is 00:51:07 I think at that point, like Sonny Michel, Lamar Miller, and Tevin Coleman were three running backs that were picked after the 50th overall pick that have potential workhorse workhorse potential, I should say. We saw what Michel did in the postseason.
Starting point is 00:51:23 24 carries, 29 carries, 18 carries. He had at least 94 yards and at least one touchdown in all three games. He had six touchdown runs in a Super Bowl run. So you could have, in a non-PPR league, 52nd overall, man, like Sonny Michel could have been a major, major steal there. And I liked that pick. I liked it a lot. Thoughts?
Starting point is 00:51:42 Yeah. We just, we don't know. We don't know if that's going to be a major steal or not. We have to wait and see if he's ready to go for training camp. And his draft stock could very easily rise if he doesn't miss any practice. Looks good. See him in a preseason game. Oh, look, he scores a goal line touchdown.
Starting point is 00:52:00 Yep. Sonny Michelle's back. You want to have that touchdown hog in the Patriots offense because it's an offense that typically scores a lot of touchdowns. Hello, analysis. It's just a matter of him actually being ready to go. And right now, I think there's a little pessimism about that knee being ready. Yeah, and I think there's just, in non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:52:21 there are fewer things that worry me about Michel. But it's the injuries, for one. It's the Belichick factor for two, which kind of leads to the touchdown situation. And yes, he scored a lot of touchdowns in the playoffs. He had a four-week stretch in the regular season where James Devlin scored like seven more touchdowns than he did. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:47 And then it's the no pass catching. Sure. No, look, I get it. I think all reasons to be afraid of Michelle, but I do think that 52nd overall when most of the lead running backs are off the board, it's pretty good. I think the comparison between Sonny Michelle and Lamar Miller's upside is laughable. Sony Michelle might have twice as much upside as Lamar Miller has. If I had to. To Dave's point about how much scoring there is in this offense, I was looking at total running back touchdowns by team earlier this offseason. The Saints below that category away, but the Patriots are consistently right behind them if you average it over a multi-year stretch. Their running backs combine for over 20 touchdowns most seasons. But in the last five years, none of their backs, other than one season, has rushed for more than six touchdowns because they do spread it around.
Starting point is 00:53:48 To his point about James Devlin, Tom Brady does some QB sneaking. And they also like to hurry up to the line when they're in passing formations and they catch a pass down to the inside the five and run quick with James White, which is how he ends up with typically four or five rushing touchdowns a year, even on low carry volume, because he gets a few of these hurry-up carries at the goal line. So the one exception, obviously, to guys not getting more than six rushing touchdowns is the year LeGarrette Blount had 18 rushing touchdowns. So, I mean, you can definitely chase that upside. It's there.
Starting point is 00:54:18 Like, if one guy gets the full goal line work like that, like Blount had, yeah, he could be a monster. But I kind of think in this iteration of the Patriots offense, where they hurry up to the line, where Brady does a lot of QB sneaking at the goal line, where they started using James Devlin, like he said, I kind of think he has a hard time getting to that touchdown upside
Starting point is 00:54:37 in this iteration of the offense. And then without the receiving, it's tough. The great thing is, if you don't like this iteration, it'll probably change four times throughout the season. That's a good point. I don't know. I think if Michelle is given the opportunity at the start, they're not just going to take it away from him unless he loses it.
Starting point is 00:54:57 The Patriots, I don't think they're quite as fickle with running backs as it's been made out to be. There have been plenty of examples of guys getting plenty of work. That's a weird stat that you mentioned about the lack of more than six rushing touchdowns. But I think the Patriots would commit to him if he plays well. It's just a matter of him getting healthy and playing well. And we'll see. Yeah, to your point, Michelle had six in the regular season last year and then added some in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:55:20 So, like, it's not— True. If you give him some credit for that, like, it's not out of the question. And he missed three games. How many thousand yard rushers have they had in that stretch though? Yeah, I don't have it up in front of me, but like, I don't think a lot, you know, they, they, they tend to rotate, but Michelle had 931 rushing yards and six touchdowns in 13 games. So if he just does that over 16 games, that's worth the 52nd overall pick, right? I mean, he was the number 25 running back in non-PPR last year.
Starting point is 00:55:52 And in 13 games. I think it is, yes. And off the board, he was 26th off the board in this draft. It gets back to, like, what are you looking for in that range? And for me, I'm looking for guys that have top five upside. And I don't think Michel has it. So he's a guy that I haven't drafted in any leagues and probably won't. Even in that range?
Starting point is 00:56:08 Because I don't think anyone left on the board has realistic top five upside. The next three running backs in non-PPR were Tariq Cohen, Lamar Miller, and Tevin Coleman. Sure. That's why I don't draft running backs in that range, and I get them later because those guys – later, if you target guys in good offenses they do have upside but james connor alvin camara if if you know a workload opens up in front of them uh you know prior seasons james connor 2018 alvin camara in
Starting point is 00:56:35 2017 were later round picks so i i actually wrote an article recently it'll it'll be up on cbs but it's and it's in our magazine it's called the running back dead zone that a range that, to me, is kind of off-limits for running backs because they don't have the upside anymore, and I'd rather target backups in good offenses later that I think actually have more upside than guys like Sonny and Michelle. Plus, you can attack good receivers and tight ends in that range. Right, right. I get it.
Starting point is 00:57:02 All right, guys. So I do apologize to our listeners for not getting to all the topics I thought we'd get to today. But again, plenty of time
Starting point is 00:57:10 to talk about strategies and enjoy your weekend, everyone. For Dave, for Jamie, for Heath, for Ben, I'm Adam Azer.
Starting point is 00:57:18 We'll talk to you on Monday on Fantasy Football Today. Na, na, na, na, na, na. Aferisikopatoledadadadada

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