Fantasy Football Today - 07/19: TE Busts; DST and K Strategy; D. Freeman analysis (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2018

We're continuing to break down tight ends, as Dave, Jamey, and Heath tell us which tight ends they DON'T want on their roster ... Avoid Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph? ... What should you expect from your tight end position? ... We put Devonta Freeman under the microscope ... Plus a little bit of kicker and DST strategy - don't ignore them entirely! Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast.

Do not adjust your television sets. This is Heath Cummings filling in for Adam Azer and we have a very exciting tight end centric podcast for you today. We've got bust tight ends. We're putting Devante Freeman under the microscope. We're going to look at DSTs. We're going to look at kickers. Did I butcher that intro, guys? So far, so good. I appreciate it, and I appreciate you. And finally, a podcast without Adam. Things are going to be great. That was terrible. Thank you, Jamie. That's exactly what I wanted to hear.

One more programming note. We are recording this on Wednesday morning. You will hear it on Thursday morning. Hopefully, nothing like Ricky Seals Jones happens in between those two things. We're going to start off with an email of the day. And like Adam's not here, but this still has a lot of Adam influence to it. It's from Brandon from The Mitten. Dave, where is The Mitten?

That would be Michigan. Oh, okay. Good. You didn't know that? Yeah. We had a whole thing about this no more than three months ago. Yeah. Yeah. Is it before know that? Yeah. We had a whole thing about this no more than three months ago. Is it before or after the PN dub?

I think it's before then. Okay. Hey, Woody, Buzz, Rex, and Slink. Jamie. Toy Story characters. Outstanding. Am I crazy to take Dalvin Cook as high as number five in a PPR league? And I think Jamie knows why we're reading this email.

I do. Adam said that during yesterday's mock, he messaged you because he wanted to take him number four. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. He said he would have taken him number four, yes. Yeah, it's a little bit crazy. As a matter of fact, on CBS Sports HQ, on Tuesday afternoon in breaking down the draft with Nick Costas and Pete Prisco.

Nick was even surprised that Cook went at the end of the first round ahead of Fournette, for example, and some of the receivers. I believe Julio Jones was one of the ones he mentioned. So look, Cook could be fantastic. He was on a very good pace through the four games he played last year, three and the majority of a fourth. So there's a lot of potential there, but you're still asking a guy coming off a torn ACL to be a top five player

at a position that's relatively loaded at the top. So I would probably say trade down if you want to take him in the first round. What if your league doesn't allow trades? It's a bad league sure that's fair but like if you have to have this guy then obviously that's on you it's just not something that i don't think any of us would do i don't think that we would consider him ahead of i mean think about the guys you take it five overall in a ppr well that's that's antonio brown territories who's been like the safest thing in the world,

uh, outside of quarterback in PPR leagues, you're taking them over potentially David Johnson or Ezekiel Elliott, Deandre Hopkins, Hunt, Camara. Uh, it just,

it seems like a stretch and I loved Alvin cook. You guys know this. I've been talking to him up ever since he was like a prospect. Yeah. I think the only other thing, like it's definitely crazy today. It might become a time after week two or week three of the preseason when Dalvin Cooks just broke off a 50-yard run and looks like Dalvin Cook,

where I could see taking him as high as number seven. Seventh overall or seventh running back? Seven overall. I think some players are going to have to get hurt. But I don't think it's crazy to take him after the top four running backs and after Brown and Hopkins and PBR. There's no way he's getting drafted ahead of Camaro. Well, maybe by

Brandon from the Mitten. You have to love Cook and hate Camaro. Sure. Occasionally you'll see that. Because I don't think at six or seven you're getting Dalvin Cook in the second round. I know, but I think he might. Maybe. I don't know about that.

I don't think he slips that far. Oh, I do. I mean, let's see what his average opposition is right now. You can look it up. But I think if you have to have Dalvin Cook. He's gone in that range in our drafts already. You've got to go. If you have to have him, I think you've got to pick at eight or later.

And then you take him with your first round pick. I think he'll be okay there. Well, Adam said specifically about this question don't let it be a 10 minute answer i think we only went like eight and a half well we're still we're still looking up his adp so we're still looking i'm gonna take a step further because i think i know the answer to so okay so i i took him at nine in our pick by pick in ppr yep so second round so that would be uh what 13, 14, 15, 16? Yeah, I think that's about as late as it could get.

Have you seen him go later? It could get later. Yes. You have. It's like finding a four-leaf clover. A purple one. It's crazy today, Brandon. It's crazy in three weeks. Maybe try to trade down. And if your commissioner won't allow that, then

try to trade commissioners. if your commissioner won't allow that, then cut a deal before you draft. Try to trade commissioners. Let's get to our bust tight ends. Because Adam's not here, I think I can easily do this. I'll say Evan Ingram. I'm terrified. Yeah, I'm not drafting, especially as ADP. It's not worth it.

And I've seen it. Like we talk about, ADP matters, but also every draft is different. I've seen him go ahead of Olsen and Graham as the number four tight end. And I don't really look at it so much now with ADP is where they're going. It's the rank of where they're going is what concerns me. And the fact that he's the fourth tight end off the board is just way, way too soon, given everything that's happening with the Giants offense, who's coming back, and how he performed last year.

I think he's a great player. A ton of potential. But there is no way he's going to produce at the level he did last year. Targets are going to go down. Production is going to go down. And so he is too risky as the fourth tight end off the board. And I'm taking him as the fourth tight end on the board as of now. And I see that potential that you referenced.

Do I think the targets can come down? Yeah. Do I think the efficiency can come down? Yeah. Do I think the efficiency can go up? Absolutely, because I think he's going to get covered a lot differently with Odell on the field versus without. And I went back and I took a look at Pat Shermer's numbers, his tight ends with him. Three out of four seasons, those tight ends had at least six touchdowns, and I want to say at least 700 yards. So 706, I would say, is pretty dang close to the floor for him. Now, when you compare it to somebody like Greg Olson, who's given you 1,000 yards three of the last four seasons, it doesn't look like much.

But I think the people that will take Evan Ingram ahead of Greg Olson are worried about Greg Olson, A, just being too old, and B, losing work because of DJ Moore being there, Christian McCaffrey taking a step forward. I can put Torrey Smith in here, but really that's a joke because he's not really going to make that much of an impact there. I get it. I see it.

I see what the Evan Ingram fans see, and I think he can be more efficient than he was. He had a ton of drops last year. I think he can be better there, and I think he could be an absolute red zone beast for the Giants, especially off of play action when Saquon is such a threat down there. Well, I would even take Kyle Rudolph ahead of Evan Ingram. So would I.

I would take Walker ahead of him. And that's Dave's bust. Yeah, I think that Rudolph is a touchdown-dependent tight end. Now, maybe I'm casting Evan Ingram in the exact same light because I'm talking him up as a red zone threat. But I think Evan Ingram is more of a receiver than a tight end, whereas Rudolph is clearly straight up a tight end. Doesn't get a lot of yards on a regular basis.

And he's just going to have to come down with a touchdown in order for him to be great for your fantasy team. I think Evan Ingram can put together some 70, 80, 90-yard games that will help you when he doesn't score a touchdown, whereas Rudolph doesn't do that very often. What do you consider to be a good yardage tight end? 70 yards. Give me 70 yards. You do

the math on it. The top 12 average for tight ends last year was 7 fantasy points. Yeah, but there was 4 guys that went over 800 yards receiving. There was 6 guys that went over 700 yards receiving. It's not a yardage position. No, so when you find guys that can put up that type of yardage, you should gravitate.

But I don't know how he can put up that type of yardage if the targets go down. Because the efficiency goes up. And I don't think they go down that much. He's not getting 115 targets. No, but can he get to 100? I think he can. Yeah, I think he can. How many passes is Eli throwing? He's going to throw a lot No, I don't think that. But can he get to 100? I think he can. Yeah, I think he can.

How many passes is Eli throwing? He's going to throw a lot this year. 600 passes? Maybe. Well, then Saquon's going to stink. Saquon's going to catch a lot of them. All right. Saquon's going to get 100 targets, too.

You must have Eli as a top five quarterback. He's close to my top 12. He is. Yeah. I hate ranking Eli Manning. Jamie, who is your bust tight end? Ingram is one. And this is more of a do not draft more so than a bust.

It's Jimmy Graham because I just worry that when the touchdowns go down just a little bit, which they're going to go down a little bit because I don't think he's scoring 10 touchdowns as great as Aaron Rodgers is. Rodgers doesn't have a great history with tight ends. You know, Richard Rodgers scored eight touchdowns. Some of that was fluky with the Hail Marys uh jermichael finley had eight touchdowns obviously jimmy graham's the best talent that he's played with but you look at the last two years uh you know if you want to throw out last year i understand that but martellus bennett was not

playing well when rogers was healthy jared cook the year before uh took the injuries and at the wide receiver position for for him to have the playoff performance that he had. So I think what's going to unfortunately happen to Jimmy Graham is he'll probably be in that 6-8 touchdown range. But his catch is okay last year. When you look at the position, he was 9th in receptions, but only 57. He was 17th in yards at the position. And he looks slower. I don't know if that knee is ever going to help him get back to the level that he was uh so if the the touchdowns decline by two to four then we're

talking about a slippage from where he's being drafted as the fifth tight end to somewhere closer to 10 and so again it's where he's being ranked in adp not necessarily what his average draft position although i do think round six is too high for him right now i I'm a little bit nervous that if the touchdowns, for whatever reason, start to decline, which you would think that they will. He was the leader at the position last year with 10. If he gets below eight, it's going to be a little bit of a problem for him if the catches and yards stay the same. His receiving average dropped from 14.2 in 2016 to 9.1 in 2017.

And that makes all the difference in the world because he had one more target from 16 to 17, a few fewer catches. He definitely has a drops issue as well. Here's my problem with Jimmy Graham, and this isn't to say that he's not a bust. I think about what the Packers' offense looks like now. We've got question marks at

running back we've got Devonta Adams we know what he is we think we know what Randall Cobb is if Aaron Rodgers is going to be a great quarterback someone's got to step up and I wonder if that's going to end up being at the running back I have questions that who is the running back but they're going to get production from that group so it doesn't matter if it's one guy or if it's all three guys he's going to get that from that group. So it doesn't matter if it's one guy or if it's all three guys. He's going to get that group numbers. Okay. But I also think the tight end group, I know their names,

they're not great names, but their names, but Lance Kendricks will probably catch one or two. Mercedes Lewis will find a way to catch one or two. Those guys are going to be on the field because they're very good blockers. And so while Graham will have his role and will lead the position in targets and production obviously I still you have to factor in there's going to be one of the two rookies or three rookies excuse me that they drafted Geronimo Allison is going to play a role and then you have obviously Devante Adams and Randall Cobb so I think Graham is is a number one tight end he's not a bust do not draft he's not a guy to. Just taking him as the fifth tight end to me is risky.

Taking him in round six is risky. And again, if the touchdowns go from 10, because he was great with that number last year, to six, he's not going to be very good. I think, and I wrote a piece for Sportsline that's coming out today, tomorrow, yesterday. Someday, this week. I don't know what day it is.

I think Jimmy Graham has an enormous range of possibilities because if what we saw last year where the yards per reception fell to nine was him falling off a cliff, then I think everything you said, Jamie is right. He may catch five or six touchdown passes and have 400 yards receiving, but I have a hard time. I think Aaron Rogers is going to throw 30 plus touchdownplus touchdowns this year. And I think Devontae Adams catches 10, 12 of them. Randall Cobb catches five or six. But here's the thing with Cobb. When he was at his best, he was a great red zone threat for them.

Right. And so if he's healthy, which is a big key, his role is obviously going to be there. It's interesting, though. I'm just looking at this now, and I didn't really notice this before. So, Dave, you say Kyle Rudolph's a bust for you. I'm still drafting him. He's still in my top 10. I understand it, but you know the difference in the two guys?

Between Graham and Rudolph? It's two touchdowns. Everything else is exactly the same. 57 catches for both of them. 520 yards for Graham, 532 for Rudolph. Rudolph had eight touchdowns. Graham had 10. They both averaged 9.3 for Rudolph, 9.1 receiving.

And both had down years, right? Totally. Because didn't Rudolph in 2016 have a better year than he did in 2016? And both have new quarterbacks. Both have new quarterbacks now this year. This is the one thing. You talked about the range of possibilities with Graham. Could it possibly be, and I'm not saying this is a good thing,

that the Packers are going to use him as their number two receiver? I think it's possible. They don't even bother lining him up the way that they would Kendricks or Mercedes. He's not going to block anybody. They literally wind him up. That's a slow move. I know, but maybe that's what they're thinking is, we're going to try and get by with Jimmy Graham drawing coverage away from Devontae Adams.

There's no way Aaron Rodgers is playing until he's 40. I think Jimmy Graham could finish anywhere from top three tight end to who am I starting week six. Right. Which means that someone's going to take him hoping for that top three. Yeah. I mean, again, I don't see a big difference between him and Rudolph. And so I'll take Rudolph four rounds later. Right.

Let's get away from tight ends and put a second round pick under the microscope. It's Devontae Freeman, 26 years old, entering his fifth season in the league. Last year was a disappointment. He had the concussion issues, only 865 yards rushing, had another 317 in the passing game, but even that was frustrating because his role the situation with him and tevin coleman it just does not seem fixed in the way we like our running back situations to be fixed how do we feel about davante freeman in the second round

i wouldn't take him in the second round early third to me he's he's the same as jerek mckinnon i i think a little bit higher of him, but I still view him as the, oh, crap, I need a fairly reliable running back. Not even fairly. Oh, crap, I need a reliable running back. I better draft Freeman. The second part of what you read with his stats is the most concerning to me because when he was at his best,

it was when he was a big part of the passing game, and I think that's gone away. I don't know if it'll come back. He had five games last year with 18 or more carries average 93 rushing yards per game and scored six touchdowns. And he missed three games, nine games with 12 or fewer carries. And he averaged 40 yards per game. I don't know how Devante Freeman has nine games with 12 or fewer carries, but that's terrifying. Kevin Coleman's Coleman's good. Tevin Coleman is good. I agree. I don't really have a problem in a non-PPR league taking

Devontae Freeman at the end of the second round, but he's there in the third a lot. He should be. I mean, this is a guy that's just trending in the wrong direction. He also battled a knee problem last year that was frustrating at the end of the season. He battled through it in the playoffs, but that was a storyline

going into the off season. They had to address it, said he was, you know, he feels like he's fine. I hope that he is. It's just one of those things where, you know, they added another running back as well. And Ido Smith, we'll see what role he plays, but it's going to take, you know, maybe two or three touches away from Freeman on a week to week basis. If he's active every week, Coleman's entering free agency. You don't know what that's going to be, you know,

in terms of how his potential could be. Coleman was good when you know Freeman missed time so maybe Steve Sarkeesian and Dan Quinn see something in Coleman that they want to use maybe a little bit more um Freeman's contract is certainly you know lends itself to him getting a ton of work because they paid him to be a featured guy but they don't necessarily use him that way and so uh I think you know you look at the Falcons passing game, they clearly went out and tried to make that better by getting Calvin Ridley. So Matt Ryan may have a bounce back season. I think we're all expecting that to some level, whether it's, you know, to the MVP level he was two years ago, that remains to be seen. But with Julio Jones there, you know,

Heath, you talked about yesterday, you expect Austin Hooper to be better. Mohamed Sanu is still going to get his targets in his production. So I think Freeman's kind of what he was last year is going to be somewhat similar to what he is this year. And I wonder if our problem with him in the second round is a running back problem or the receivers and tight ends that are going after him. Freeman has an ADP of 21st overall. He's the 12th running back off the board, the running back going right in front of him in non PPR,

Christian McCaffrey or Devante Freeman. Freeman. I would take Freeman too, Dave. Yeah, I think I'm leaning toward Freeman. I would take Freeman too, Dave. Yeah, I think I'm leaning toward Freeman. So let's go with the running backs right behind him. Jordan Howard at pick 25. That's the one that I'm struggling with right now in my rank

because I have them back-to-back right now at 12 and 13, Freeman at 12. If Howard looks like he's going to get the role I hope he gets with the Bears, I'll move him ahead of Freeman during training camp. I've got it Freeman, Howard, McCaffrey, non-PPR. Joe Mixon behind all those guys? Yes. Yeah, but I have McKinnon ahead of Freeman. That's the one, because Jarek McKinnon is going right after Joe Mixon and Jordan Howard,

and they all basically have the same ADP at 25. Yeah, I mean, I get it. I know I'm obviously bullish on McKinnon, but I just think that the offense that made Freeman special is now McKinnon's offense. So I'll take Kyle Shanahan's track record over what Sarkeesian showed me last year with how Freeman could be used. But I think what this is really about, and not wanting to take Devontae Freeman in the second round, Mike Evans is behind him. You're definitely going to take Mike Evans, right? Of course. Gronk is behind him. I think it depends. I would rather have Gronk, but I think Evans versus Freeman comes down to what position you want.

Yeah, I'll take the more talented. Well, this is at the end of the second round. So in theory, you have one of the big three running backs already. Four. So then in that case, you'd probably lean a little bit toward Evans and hope that Freeman makes it back to you in round three. Kelsey's well behind him. Would you rather have Kelsey than Freeman?

Yes. I don't know if I'm saying yes to that. I don't think so. Phelan or T.Y. Hilton? No. Maybe Hilton. I'm sorry, definitely Hilton. Definitely.

Not for me. I'll take Freeman. All right. So take Devontae Freeman at the start of the third round. Take a wide receiver or a tight end with that end of the second round pick. Absolutely. Unless you really want to start heavy with the running backs. I know a lot of people do.

I'm pretty good with the mixed start there. Give me a running back and Kelsey or a running back and wide receiver. Let's get to the injuries news and notes. Jamie, you jinxed Ricky Seals. Apparently this really sounds like it's going to be a nothing story. I mean, he apparently

had to go to the bathroom. They wouldn't let him in the hotel. Sounds like he was intoxicated so he got probably a little bit belligerent but I can't imagine this is going to bring any discipline from the NFL. They wouldn't let him in the hotel. It sounds like he was intoxicated, so he got probably a little bit belligerent, but I can't imagine this is going to bring any discipline from the NFL. You don't think a suspension is in the offing for something like this? No. He was charged with assault, disorderly conduct, and third-degree

criminal trespassing. Yeah. Third degree? How many degrees of trespassing are there? I don't know, but he's on the third one. I don't know if you read the news story. Apparently, he tried to go to the bathroom in one spot. Then he went to another spot. They told him no. Then it got physical. He pushed someone

in the shoulder region. Yes. Arizona GM Steve Keim is suspended five weeks and fined $200,000 for an extreme DUI. He will also serve 48 hours in jail. Dallas defensive end Randy Gregory has been reinstated after a year-long ban.

Do we have any interest in the Dallas defense? No, but this is a guy to pick up in IDP leagues if you're in a real deep one anyway. You can speculate on him. Yeah, don't play him when they play Giants because Eli's throwing for 500 yards that week. Thank you. And Adam Azar will be there.

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Remember, our listeners get $20 off their first purchase. Just download the SeatGeek app. Enter the promo code FFT. That's promo code FFT for $20 off your first SeatGeek purchase. And now the moment everyone has been waiting for all off-season, it's DST and Kicker Talk. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. And I am going to do the most Adam Azer thing ever.

Dave, what is your DST strategy going into a draft? Well, thanks, Adam. I mean, Heath. The DST strategy is pretty simple. I'm going to wait toward the end of my draft and then i'm going to take one when to take one you might ask there's there's there's three rules one if i totally love my team let's just say i've gotten a bunch of steals and my team is amazing i might go for the kill in round 11 and take the dst that i like the best for me that's the Rams.

If I'm a little picky about my DSTs and I want one that I'm not going to start with as a streamer, one that I want to commit to, then I'll probably look for one no later than the third to last round of my draft. And if I just need a DST, I'm going to wait till the second to last round and then get a kicker in my last round. Jamie, what is your DST strategy? Last two rounds. You'll never take one in the third to last round? No, because somebody is going to take the Jaguars. I think George Maselli did it in our draft. He did it like round 10, right?

Yeah. No, I think it was sooner than that. I looked at their ADP and it's round nine right now. Yeah. It's too soon. And the Jaguars have the best defense. I don't think it's close especially if aaron donald holds out um well sure if he holds out and that changes it uh i mean even

if he plays the jaguars have the best defense um okay uh so you're you're you're putting yourself at risk if in fact they do suffer any significant injuries maybe outside of the defensive line because they're loaded there. And we've seen this time and time again. You know, Seattle comes off a dominant season. They don't repeat it. You know, they're still the best, but they don't repeat it. Denver comes off a dominant season.

They're the best. They don't repeat it. Baltimore back in the day, you know, go down the line. So you're chasing points in that regard. Now, round 10, maybe, you know, if you really love your first nine picks um i get it but i wouldn't do it i just think you know you're better off like for me the the two that i'm looking at the most maybe three uh baltimore because they're a good defense and they get buffalo week one um the saints because they're a good defense and they get ryan fitzpatrick week one they get the browns in week two and And the Lions, because they get the Jets in week one, and they're also a good defense.

They're the third of that group by far, but you can get all those guys. Assuming most drafts go the way they do, you can get them in round 13 or 14. And I am great with weighting on defense, but does the size of your league matter? It's easy to stream DSTs in a 10 or 12 team league. If you're in a 14 or 16 team league, it might be a little bit more difficult. Are you going to put more emphasis stream DSTs in a 10 or 12-team league. If you're in a 14 or 16-team league, it might be a little bit more difficult. Are you going to put more emphasis on DSTs in that format? No. I'm not either.

No, because, I mean, nobody drafted Jacksonville last year. Right. And they proved to be fantastic. Right. So, Jamie, you mentioned Baltimore is a good week one streamer. I also like the Lions a lot. Mm-hmm. And I think they're a team that you're taking. I also like the Lions a lot. And I think they're a team that you're taking.

I'm the only one that drafts them on our drafts generally, or somebody else will take them with one of the last few picks. They are always available. Early schedules, though, for the best DSTs, there's some tough ones. The Vikings start with the 49ers at home at the Packers. They get the gimme against the Bills. Then they go to the Rams and to the Eagles. Does that make you want to just avoid the Vikings? No.

As a matter of fact, they typically do a decent job against Aaron Rodgers. I don't have it off the top of my head. Right, right. I'm fine with that schedule. Maybe the game at Philadelphia might worry me the most. I think at the Rams and at Philadelphia, I don't worry too much about a home opener against the 49ers. No.

No, although they lost one two years ago. Yeah. I mean, they might lose the game, but that's not a matchup I'm avoiding with a defense like the Vikings. Also a difficult schedule to start the year, the Chargers have the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes at home. Then they're at Buffalo, but then they have at the Rams and the 49ers. Are you drafting the Chargers, or does this make you less likely to draft them?

No, that pass rush. I'll always start with pass rush whenever I'm looking at DST, and they have the best in the business. So when you have Bosa and Ingram and what they added to the back end of their defense, linebackers should be good enough. They'll be able to contain the run. It's a very good formula for them. Look, if you get penalized tremendously by points against or yards against,

however your defensive scoring is, but you're looking for sacks, you're looking for turnovers, and the Chargers, I think, will be among the best in that regard. That's why the Chiefs defense was so good for many years. Chiefs TST was so good, which I think they will be again because I think that's the two things that they will do well is they'll get after the quarterback and they'll certainly turn the ball over with Eric Berry back I'm kind of worried the

Chiefs defense is just going to be absolutely awful I think they do still have the good pass rush but I don't know that they can cover anybody long enough to get there I I don't know if their pass rush is as good as it's been in the past no it's definitely not as good as it's been in the past because I don't know if Justin Houston's the same guy I don't know if Tyree Ford is like if they just let him return more kicks they they might get the special teams points. They're getting back one of the best safeties in football, and Eric Berry is certainly going to turn things around from what they looked like last year. I like the Texans a lot if they stay healthy this year,

but they start off week one at New England. So should we not even draft them? You're not going to start them against the Patriots on the road, are you? Yeah. I think if you draft them, you kind of have to. I think you should certainly know if you're looking at the Texans' DST, you should absolutely know, before you draft them, they play week one in New England.

So if you're not comfortable with that matchup, don't draft them. But again, you know, look, the Patriots, I think by the end of the year, are going to be obviously, you know, one of, if not the best teams in football. They get off to slow starts notoriously. They have two new starters on the offensive line. That's going to take some time to gel, and Brady getting used to what those guys do,

especially at left tackle. They have no element to start the season. So they're down parts and replacing parts. And so you have hopefully a healthy J.J. Watt, hopefully a healthy Merciless. You have a new Tyron Matthew thatew that you know can can create he'll help them because they had trouble to make a play or two yep and so again while they may give up 40 points which is potentially a problem for them they may hit brady four or five times you know and

they and they may get a fumble recovery or or uh you know pick six or not pick six but an interception could houston win that game absolutely oh. Oh, they could, yeah. Yeah, I'm not afraid to take the Texans DST. The Patriots lost at home in week one last year, right? They got blasted, but they put up points, though. Right. All right, so Adam wants a sleeper, breakout, and bust at DST. I will give you my bust to start, and we've talked about them a lot already.

I do think that on paper, Jacksonville is the best defense in football. I think drafting them in the ninth or 10th round is a bad plan. Jamie, you talked about how hard it is to repeat as the number one defense. The last five years, the number one defense the following year has finished no better than fifth. I think Jacksonville has a decent chance to do that, to finish better than that, but they're not a guarantee to be the number one scoring defense. I don't want to take a defense in the first 10 rounds without that guarantee. And one other thing, they scored seven defensive touchdowns last year.

That's the first team to do that since the 2013 Chiefs, who scored seven defensive touchdowns and followed that up with one following year. Yeah, I mean, the thing about Jacksonville is their defensive line is the deepest in football. I'm not saying a lot, given what Philadelphia has done, but there's so much talent there. They're going to be better getting after the quarterback. Miles Jack will continue to improve, and he certainly was great last year.

Secondary is amazing. The one thing, though, about Jacksonville, which lends itself to your point, Heath, is they played Deshaun Watson for half, and it was his first NFL game in week one. They didn't play Andrew Luck at all. And the hope would be is that, Dave, you talked about this with Matt LaFleur, is that the Titans offense is a little bit better. So you're talking about three teams in their division, which offensively should be better, obviously the Colts for sure, if Luck plays. So while they will be certainly able to contain those offenses, it's a much different challenge than what they faced a year ago. So I don't necessarily think it's a bad call to call them a bust

based on their draft spot. But if you tell me that I'm taking them as the first DST and they finish no worse than fifth, it's the same thing that we talk about with any other position. I'm certainly okay with that. Oh, yeah, I'd be okay with it if I was taking them as a first one in a relatively similar place to where the other DSTs were going. But where would you take them?

What's their early? 11? 12? I would take them. 15-round draft. How early are you taking them? I would take them the third to last round. I might at the end of the fourth to last round. But the ninth round's a long way from there.

There are good players available there. I said this before. Maybe it was just when Adam and I were doing the show together ourselves. But I have a tough keeper decision to make. you keep four players they start after round 13 but it's players that were drafted or free agents drafted after round eight or free agents so i have for sure i'm keeping it's ppr league so i'm keeping deandre hopkins i'm keeping edelman and i'm keeping jarvis landry my fourth choice is if he's healthy alan Alan Robinson has him now. But I also have the Jaguars DST, and this is a league that DST scores like quarterbacks.

And so to have the Jaguars in my back pocket knowing that, okay, I have them round 13 through 16, I think we go 16 rounds, is a nice bonus. But then I'm giving up one of those receivers, which I can keep forever. So that's the tough challenge for me. Do you guys have a sleeper? I don't know how to distinguish. I mean, for me, Detroit, like I said before, I think just the fact that they get off,

they have the ability to start the season with the Jets makes them, you know, for a team that's not going to get drafted very much, that's the type of team you look for. Right, but that's if you're just resigned to streaming. They could be improved, right? They had a lot of entries last year. They've got a new head coach. We just got done talking about how pass rush is the the most important thing and outside of on so what do they

have and he may hold up yeah i'm i'm very concerned about that front seven for detroit so they're they're not high on my list the one thing though with patricia is the patriots for the most part since seymour left you know or since chandler jones left i should say uh haven't had exactly a dominant pass rusher and their patriots defense DST has been good because of the points allowed. But that is facing the Dolphins and the Bills and the Jets. Now they're facing the Packers and the Vikings and, you know, the hopefully improved Bears. But, you know, it's definitely a different situation for Patricia.

But would you feel comfortable starting the Lions' DST at San Francisco? No. In a vacuum? No. That's their week two opponent. So if you're drafting Detroit, it DST at San Francisco? No. In a vacuum? No. I don't think so. That's their week two opponent. So if you're drafting Detroit, it's for – I can't say because we're all heaping a ton of potential on Jimmy Garoppolo,

but that's still – and look, I obviously love Jared McKinnon, but that could be an offense that struggles week one against Minnesota. If that's the case in the Lions DST, which was awesome to start the year last year, talk about a team turning the ball over. If they can get off to a great start against Josh McCown and the Jets, which I don't think is a big surprise, you may say, okay, well, the Vikings just shut out the 49ers.

Maybe I'll stick with them for next week. Better breakout DST, the Saints or the Chargers? I would say the Chargers. And I don't know if they're breaking out necessarily. Well, they were ninth last year. I'm talking about a team that was not in the top five that could move into the top five. Chargers. Sure. I like the were ninth last year. I'm talking about a team that was not in the top five that could move into the top five. Chargers? Sure. I think

I like the Chargers a lot. I do like the Saints a lot. They've got a lot of young talent on that defense. They've got a pretty good home. The one thing they have that the Chargers don't have, the Chargers basically have eight neutral site games and eight road games. And a home crowd

does help a defense. The Saints have the Superdome. I'd like to see what Davenport brings to that defense. That was their first-round pick. They traded up to get him. They obviously believe in him as a difference maker for their pass rush, and he's hurt right now. But if he ends up being okay for the start of the season and the reports are good and he looks fine in practice,

that's the cherry on top for this defense because they really took like three steps forward last year. They really did a great job. And we'll talk about pass rush. That's definitely a thing to look for with your DSTs. But when you've got a cornerback that you can leave on an island, it opens up your defensive coordinator to just come up with all kinds of crazy blitz schemes.

And New Orleans has that with Lattimore. So do the Chargers, though. They do. The Chargers do, too. I'm not making the comparison of the Chargers. I'm just talking up the Saints DST as a draftable unit. One fun fact about the Saints. They forced 20 fumbles last year and recovered five of them.

You should. Heath regression alert. Here we go. Be expected to recover around 50% of the fumbles. Recovering fumbles is not a skill. Forcing them is more so. I don't know how much. Any other final thoughts on DST other than please don't take one in the 7th or 8th round?

I'd like to say something about the Bengals DST. I think that they're underrated. I think they've got a good pass rush. I think they've got a good secondary. And I think their schedule, we'll see. They play at Indianapolis week one, which Andrew Luck shows up, if Andrew Luck shows up. Week two, it's Baltimore at Carolina. And week three could get a little hairy. But for those first two games, at least, I think you could start the season with Cincinnati. You think they have a good secondary?

I think they have an okay secondary. Pass rush, I'm with you. I just spoke to Carl Austin last week, and I think he's going to be. Pass rush, I'm with you. I just spoke to Carl Lawson last week, and I think he's going to be one of the next great pass rushers in the league. And when you pair him with Dunlap and Geno Atkins on that defensive line, that could be one of the best lines in football. They got Jackson. They got Kirkpatrick. Safety is a little bit – they used to have, like, crazy depth.

Yeah, I don't think their secondary is good at all. I think they're okay. And I have never been as excited about anything as I am. And the fact that we're now going to talk about kickers. Oh, is there any kicker strategy besides take one with your last pick? If you, if you're near one of the turns and you don't necessarily like the defense or you're not sold on one of the DSTs on the board, you know, you could take a kicker in the second to last round. It's the people that do it sooner than that. I think that's where it becomes a little bit of an issue because again,

like defenses, you know, we saw Gostkowski, you know, repeat for a couple of years is the best kicker, but that's changed a little bit. You know, Tucker has been a little up and down when he's on, he's amazing when he's down, he's still very good, but just not the number one guy. Everybody's looking at Zerline now is that guy, but is his back. Okay. You know, so it's just, there's so many good kickers and you could also stream the

position it's just not worth it i'm a little worried about sir line he made 95 of his kicks last year he's a career 80 guy do we think he just six years in didn't he have like a really terrible year yep along the way second year so like he's had this amazing year and now he's had a terrible year i don't but he also he also has a much better offensive coach and so you know they move the ball so well right and they'll get more attempts and their defense is going to put them in a lot of positions you know where they don't necessarily have to uh you know worry about field position you know if they try long kicks which is what he's obviously been very good at um if he's healthy i i think he's easily the number one kicker.

I think I'd go with Steven Gostkowski, who has finished as a top two kicker six of the last seven years. He did have a down year in 2016, but that was his only year when he was not a top two kicker. He's good. Yeah, I mean, he's my second favorite kicker. I don't have a problem with him. But I just think Zerline, the ceiling with him right now,

especially with the leg that he has, he'll get you the 50, especially if you get bonuses. He'll get you, I think, more 50-yard kicks than Gostkowski will. Do you guys stream kickers, or do you just pick one and set it and forget it? More so the latter. If I get a kicker that's ranked in my top five, I'm setting it and forgetting it. Right. I do think you can stream kickers.

It's not as predictable as other positions, and that's one of the reasons I'd like to ban kickers altogether. But if nothing else, you can look for a team that is projected to score a lot of points that's playing indoors and just stream that kicker. It's pretty elementary, but that is not a bad way to do it if you end up with a kicker that you just can't stand to keep on your roster. It may just be a waste of energy as well.

Do you ever keep a kicker through his bye week? Zerline last year. Gostkowski when he's been great. I think also it comes down to do you get $0 vids on your fab budget? Right. Because wasting that dollar. Oh, yeah, I wouldn't waste a dollar streaming kicker.

No, but, yeah, I'm saying wasting the dollar week to week when you're streaming, it could catch up to you by the end of the season if you're doing it for 8 to 10 weeks. So when you keep them through their bye week, you're actually dropping somebody else on your bench, putting them on your bench and adding another kicker. Or, you know, I mean, I've seen, and, you know again to reference uh nick when he had his um his perfect season last year which he'll tell you about anytime you ask him oh yes or if you don't um he had jake elliott during his great stretch run last year and he felt his team was good enough to win without starting a kicker against the team he

was playing he was right obviously so you know if you think you can get by without those, could be obviously double-digit points, but if you feel you can get by without the kicker production, then don't even drop the guy or drop somebody else. What does that make you think about Nick's league, that he had a perfect season and he was winning weeks while getting a zero from kicker and just saying, I don't need a kicker.

That might speak to the strength of his league do we have any sleepers breakouts or busts at kicker yeah i've got dustin hopkins ranked in my top 12 and i don't think he should be there solely because the redskins have an early season bye okay interesting but that's that's the closest we're going to get to a sleeper, a breakout, or a busted. I wouldn't draft him just because I don't want to deal with replacing him in week four. But we do have emails. Mark, from a city a stones throw away from Washington, D.C.

Bethesda. Dear Bruticus, Superion, Man, I... Computron and Devastator. Transformers? superion man i compute computeron and devastator transformers i i that's the guess i i don't know where else those names could come from do you guys have any issues with having both beckham and barkley i have odell on a keeper league with no keeper restrictions and i'm trying to get the

first pick so i can get barkley but i'm a bit concerned about putting too many eggs in the giants basket so adam's not here but he still sends an email? He's still sending in emails. Thank you, Mark. Well, Dave, you're the Giants guy, so. I mean, apparently they're going to score 50,000 points. Yeah, they're going to set the world on fire. Look, between the two of them,

I think you'll have at least one stud performer each week, and I think you'll see several weeks where they both go off. Mostly I don't care. Like, I'm not trying to go stack teams. It depends on the offense for me, right? I'm not trying to avoid them. Well, I mean, look, if you're in an auction, you're going to be afraid to take Le'Veon and Antonio Brown. I think that's not necessarily the level of those two guys, but it's not far off.

And so you're talking about two guys who could be unbelievable. Right. And so I want that. Would you take Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelsey? Yeah, sure. Would you take Todd Gurley and Brandon Cooks? No. If they're available at the right time.

Well, yes, because I'll take Brandon Cooks if he's there around nine. I think I got Cooks in the sixth yesterday and I like that. Would you take Isaiah Crowell and Jermaine Kearse? No. Thanks, Dave, for adding that. Jeff from Iowa.

City in Iowa. Iowa City. Doing some mock drafts, and I'm thinking this guy is significantly undervalued. I'm in a 12-team ESPN league, and he is listed as the number 56 player. I look at the Jay Ajayi, Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins, and Ronald Jones. I'd rather have Derrick Henry than any of those guys. Not because I think he's that great, because I think Tennessee's O-line is that great.

You or I could run for 1,500 yards behind that line. Nah, I'm slow. We couldn't, Jeff. I run my 40 in like eight seconds. I'm thinking Henry is at least 10 picks undervalued, but I'm willing to listen to why I'm off on that. Thoughts? I assume this is a PPR league if he's the number 56 player.

Jeff, are you sure that Derek Henry is going going to be a for sure three down player? He doesn't have to be a three down player, though, to be successful. Well, to be better than 56. So he's talking about, so wait a minute. So he's saying that he should be picked 10 spots higher than 56 or 10 spots higher from where we have him. 10 spots higher than 56. We all agree that he's a round three guy.

Maybe even round two someone. But not in PPR. No. He slips a little bit in PPR. He slips a lot in PPR. Yeah, I get a little bit worried about him in PPR, but I don't know if I get 56 worried about him in PPR. I've got him number 45 overall, which is 11 spots higher.

I agree with you completely, Jeff. So do I. All right. From Brian. I have the fifth pick in my upcoming 12-team PPR draft. which is 11 spots higher i agree with you completely jeff so do i all right from brian i have the fifth pick in my upcoming 12 team ppr draft i kept deshaun watson should i pick antonio brown or double up with deandre hopkins for me this gets back to what we just talked about i don't care but i'm also not reaching to make it happen if antonio brown's there i'm taking him like i wouldn't avoid hopkins if he's the best player on my board because I have Watson, but I would still take Brown over him.

I'm not going to take Hopkins just because I have Watson. Right. Because, I mean, the one thing, especially with Watson's case, if he goes down, Hopkins, unless it's Brock Osweiler, is fantastic. But there's always that risk. Right. Dave, you're on board? Sure.

We've got another email from Jeff. I don't know where jeff's from ames iowa ames iowa just right down the road from jeff it's all just one long road in iowa there's there's multiple roads just only one of them i've only seen one on a recent episode heath referenced his season-long projections for david johnson dave commented he hadn't done a projection yet, if I heard him right. I'm curious as to the rankings methodology between the experts. It seems Heath is using projections as a basis. What are Dave and Jamie doing from a process standpoint to arrive at preseason ranks?

Always appreciate a peek behind the curtain at the process. So when you do a projection, Heath, you assign every stat possible to a player? I start with the number of plays i expect the team to run okay and then their pass run breakdown okay and then target share and run share for the running backs and receivers and then i add efficiency yards per attempt and touchdown rate okay and that it sounds great and once upon a time that is how I did it. I kind of assign ranges to players, and if I think a player's got a chance at,

I think the highest range I've got is 1,500 total yards and 10-plus touchdowns, and I think if that range is there for a running back, then he's going to be listed toward the top of my draft, and that's where I've got David Johnson. I think he's absolutely in the range of getting 1,510 plus. How do you weigh upside versus the floor? In a way, I don't think about the floor. And in a way, I don't think about the upside. I just, I get in my head what I think a player is capable of doing and what I would expect from him based

on where I would draft him. And that's that. Jamie, what's the beginning stages of your process? I just rank players how I like them. And then we're going to be doing projections, season-long projections again for the first time in God knows how many years. I just assign fantasy production to the guys how I have them ranked. Okay. So you start with the rankings first and then go to the projections? Yeah.

I don't really necessarily care about what the final numbers are going to be. I just kind of worry about more so how they're going to finish in my mind. That is going to do it for the Acer list podcast on a Wednesday that you're hearing on a Thursday. And that's probably going to be our last podcast of the week, but we should talk to you next week. Bye. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.