Fantasy Football Today - 07/19: Tyreek Reaction - All Angles of the Big News (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 19, 2019

Covering every aspect of the Tyreek Hill news. Is Hill a first round pick? Is Patrick Mahomes in a tier by himself? Is Sammy Watkins a Top 24 WR? Is this good news or bad news for Damien Williams and Travis Kelce and what does this do to Mecole Hardman's dynasty value?  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Back here with a bonus episode on Friday, July 19th.

Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football Today. And, yeah, we've got some big news, breaking news. Tyreek Hill, we were expecting a suspension. He will not be suspended. He will not be disciplined by the NFL because the NFL cannot determine if Tyreek Hill violated the personal conduct policy. If any new information comes out via the police, the NFL can revisit the case. But right now, we are not expecting a suspension for Tyreek Hill.

So, yeah, I'm just going to get right to it, guys. Is Tyreek Hill a first round pick, Heath? I just wrote that now that Tyreek Hill is not suspended, he is a first round pick. So yes, I do believe Tyreek Hill should be a first round pick. He has been, during his time in the NFL, one of the most efficient wide receivers in all of football. In fact, I think you could argue the most efficient. Only Julio Jones and Tyreek Hill have averaged at least 10 yards per target over the last three seasons. And Hill has also scored once every 13 targets, which we know Julio does not do. Dave, is he a first-round pick? He's just outside the top 12 for me, Adam. If we're talking about a deeper league or maybe a three-receiver full PPR league,

I'd consider him late. Maybe I'd consider him late in a regular 12-team league if there was just a slew of receivers that went in round one and I wanted to grab Tyreek Hill before knowing I could get a good running back in round two. But you know me. I'm Mr. Running Back. So Tyreek is someone who's could get a good running back in round two. But you know me. I'm Mr. Running Back. So Tyreek is someone who's top 15, top 16 overall, top five non-PPR,

just outside there in full PPR, but not somebody I'm looking at in round one. Okay. You meant top five wide receiver in non-PPR, not top five overall. Correct. Correct. All right, Jamie, you're last. By the way, four of us on the show today in four different locations. We were not expecting to have a show. So Dave and Jamie and I are all at home. And so that's

why the audio sounds a little bit different. Jamie, when are you going to take Tyreek Hill? Late first. It's just, you know, you see, Heath alluded to it, you know, what he's been able to do. He's a special talent. You know, forget about any of the off-field things that he's had to deal with. His production on the football field speaks for itself. He's got the best quarterback in the NFL coming off what we saw last year, one of the best play callers in the NFL, maybe in NFL history. It's hard to overlook the expected production.

It's going to be interesting to see how many people did their drafts now for whatever reason. Wherever you held your draft early, best ball, obviously. Dynasty startups, however those things may have gone. You probably got him at such a great price that it's going to be somewhat unfair for everybody else in your league. But just to maybe

counteract this whole first round, early second round thing, he only had 87 catches last year Tyreek Hill in 16 games and Hill was the number one wide receiver in non-PPR he was number three in PPR he was fourth in PPR points per game but 87 catches that ranked 10th in the NFL it wasn't even really close to the top nine number nine was Keenan Al with 97. There were eight wide receivers with more than 100 catches last year. So 87 is not really a great number. And if the Chiefs' offense is a little less productive,

I think first round in non-PPR isn't so risky with Tyreek Hill. But in PPR, is anybody feeling like, gosh, man, he might be a little disappointing if I take him in the first round? He's early second for me in PPR, but it's splitting hairs. It's so close that we talk about this all the time. When you get to the end of the first round, if you want to take two receivers, it's almost like you're picking among your favorite children. And then it's pairing in with any of those running backs.

He's in the conversation of the best of the best. There are two things that really kind of and i don't necessarily disagree with you adam well it's not my opinion it's just a question i'm not the first thing is that he's last year had 151 rushing yards in his career he's averaged about 160 rushing yards per year. That's 16 catches that most receivers don't have. That's true, yeah. The second thing that I would say about the Chiefs offense, and this is something I've been struggling with a lot in my projections, I fully think that it's going to regress a little bit

and they will be less efficient. But part of that less efficiency probably means they don't have quite as many drives where they run four plays and go 90 yards for a touchdown, which is probably, I still, I don't think that means they're going to go three and out. It's probably going to mean that they run more offensive plays. They were below a thousand offensive plays last year, which was really weird considering they were arguably the best offense in the NFL. I think it's possible that if they are less efficient, which they probably will be,

they actually run a few more plays and he'll seize a slight bump in targets, if that's the case. Because he averaged 17 yards per reception. That's the other thing. That number's probably going to go down a little bit, but if it does, we might see him with 90, 95 catches instead. The Chiefs were the highest scoring team by quite a bit,

by 2.4 more points per game than the Los Angeles Rams, who were number two. All right, next question, Dave, I'll throw it to you. Is Patrick Mahomes, who scored 94 more points than any quarterback last year, any other quarterback, and six points for passing touchdown leagues, and 68 more in four points for passing touchdown leagues, is Mahomes now in a tier by himself? No, he's not in a tier by himself, but he's the number one fantasy quarterback. I think that that's pretty obvious.

We all agree that 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns doesn't seem attainable. I think you're probably looking more at like 4,700 yards and 42 touchdowns, maybe 40. Let's just call it 40. Well, if he's 4,742, then he isn't a tier by himself. I think there's some quarterbacks that can get close to that.

I think just the way that this league is going and how many great quarterbacks there are that, you know, Aaron Rodgers in line for a bounce back season, Luck with the best receiving core he's ever had, Deshaun Watson with upside. I don't think Deshaun's going to throw for 4,700 and get 42 passing touchdowns, but what he does on the ground will help him out. I think there's upside to get close to that.

So does anybody think Mahomes is now in a tier by himself? I do. So, Heath, he's now your number one quarterback because I know you had Watson. Yes, he's in a tier by himself. Yeah, I had Watson ahead of him in four-point touchdown leagues. Now I would put him first in all formats. I don't know that he's a tier by himself in four-point touchdown leagues, but in a standard CBS league, for me, he is now—

I moved him up to the third round. I've got Watson at the 4-5 turn. All right, let's talk about when we would draft Patrick Mahomes. He says third round, so I'm going to give you guys names, and you tell me if you'd take Patrick Mahomes or carry on Johnson. Johnson. Johnson. Yep, same.

Stefan Diggs. Diggs. Same. Definitely Diggs and PPR. Your number three tight end, be it Kittle or Ertz. I'm going with the tight end. Same. Same.

How about Josh Jacobs or Mahomes? Double J. Mahomes. So how is he in the third round, Heath? I said Mahomes. Oh, you said Mahomes. Yeah, I don't have Josh Jacobs in the third round. Oh, okay. I'm sorry. Dave said

Double J. How about Julian Edelman or Mahomes? Edelman. Same. Edelman, PPR. Mahomes, non-PPR. Okay. Next question. What's the impact on Sammy Watkins?

Sammy Watkins, who was on pace to be around 25th based on his nine healthy games. He played 10 games. He played nine healthy games. Would have been 26th in non-PPR, 24th in PPR with those nine games made into 16. Sammy Watkins, is he a top 24 wide receiver? Not for me. Jamie, where do you have Watkins, is he a top 24 wide receiver? Not for me. Jamie, where do you have Watkins? Early 30s. He might be among the best of the best bench receivers

because he did have 10-plus PPR points in six of those first nine games. That's good. And that's all with Tyreek Hill. It's all with Patrick Mahomes. Nothing's really changed. I don't think Mecole Hardman's going to push him off the field, but the limited upside and the injury risk keep me from

chasing Watkins. Yeah, I've got him 28th in non-PPR and high 30s in PPR. Does this affect Travis Kelsey? Because I think it sort of does in the sense that maybe you guys weren't feeling this way, but I felt that as great as Kelsey's season was last year, I don't think he's got really a great chance to replicate it with Tyreek Hill back.

I kind of felt like I wasn't necessarily expecting more than 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns on 103 catches, but I thought he could do it again and be such a standout again. But now with Tyreek Hill playing 16 games in theory, I'm not sure there's as much separation between Kelsey and Ertz and Kittle. What do you guys think? I would argue that Hill playing with Kelsey helps Kelsey because the coverage can't be tight. And we just saw him have this monster season with Mahomes and Hill on the field.

I agree. I think it'll be hard to see him do as well as he did last year, but he still has very much tight end one potential. Yeah, I've only got him projected for 1,297 yards, so I agree with you, Adam. Big. But drought lay at 1,336 last year. All right, so then maybe here's a better question. Jamie, I'll throw it to you. Other than Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, who's affected the most by this news?

Watkins. Okay, after that. Really, we're talking Hardman and Damian Williams, Travis Kelsey. You see any major adjustments coming with Williams and Kelsey? No. I think you've got a pretty strong idea of what Travis Kelsey is in an Andy Reid offense, what the tight end is in an Andy Reid offense. You know, it's it's it's highly featured and and Kelsey's a superstar.

So he's the best tight end in football and in fantasy. I, you know, Williams, you know, based on the rushing, the minimal rushing production you get from Tyree kill, it maybe impacts him a little bit. If he wasn't on the field, maybe that goes to Hardman. But at least, you know, that they'll use Tyreek Hill in some of those plays, on some of those plays. So I think the Chiefs offense is, you know, it's just you're downgrading the numbers from a year ago just because it's just hard to replicate that again.

I'll go the other way on Damian Williams. I think he's better off with Tyreek on the field because it forces defenses to play those safeties back. And he's going to have opportunities in open field on receptions and on those edge runs that he was really successful with last year. So I'm a little more excited about Damian Williams now. And I would actually consider Damian Williams closer to 20th overall, whereas before this news broke, I was trying to get him in the swing of round two and three

or into round three. I've got a hot take, Adam. Ooh, hit me. I think Jamie and Dave were both just right. I don't think I said anything bad about Dave. No, I think William's volume is going to possibly get hurt just a little bit. And when I say a little bit, we're talking about maybe one carry per game, maybe two carries per game.

And I also think that this makes it a little bit easier to run in this offense. I do think if you're talking about a guy who was being drafted and now probably won't be drafted, Mecole Hardman might have seen his value change the most. Because I don't think he's going to be drafted in Mecole Hardman might have seen his value change the most. Yeah. Because I don't think he's going to be drafted in a standard CBS league now. It does make me a little more confident in Damian Williams. I like this for him.

Not that, like, I'm not disagreeing with what Jamie said, because, like, he wasn't taking a stance against Damian Williams. But I am agreeing with Dave's point. Like, I like it just mentally thinking, oh, this is just going to be good for Damian Williams. I mean, his offense is going to be incredible. I don't see why it wouldn't. I was a little nervous about not having Tyreek Hill. He's such a unique player.

He's the most explosive player in the NFL. You didn't know what the impact that would have with him maybe missing six games or so. This is big news. In a dynasty league, because now it seems even more likely that Tyreek Hill is going to be a chief for a long time, know, they may lowball him and he may say, you know what? I don't have any reason to stay here if you're not going to pay me what I think I'm worth. So, I mean, it obviously helps because he's not going to miss any time.

But I don't think it's necessarily he's. I don't think he wins as much in the dynasty world as not being suspended would probably seem on the surface. Until we see what the contract may be. Let's finish it with this. Tyreek Hill or Le'Veon Bell? Hill for me. Hill for me. Hill.

Hill for me in non-PPR. Well, Hill's going to catch more passes than Bell. Oh, I don't know about that. I do have Bell two spots higher in full PPR. Hill's definitely going to catch more passes than Bell. But Stefan Diggs is going to catch more passes than Le'Veon Bell, and we're taking Bell ahead of him in PPR, at least based on last year. We don't have Stefan Diggs ahead of Bell in non-PPR.

12 touchdowns. Okay, but my point was, a wide receiver catching more balls than a running back doesn't necessarily make him more valuable in PPR. You know what I mean? No, my point is, if he's more valuable in non-PPR, and he's catching more passes. But I would say that you could have a situation where you go from non-PPR to PPR and he's catching more passes. But I would say, I would say that you could have a situation where you go from non PPR to

PPR because Le'Veon Bell is a running back. He becomes more valuable based on the rest of his position. Whereas Tyreek Hill becomes less valuable based on the rest of his position. Yes. And also I think, I think suggesting that Le'Veon Bell is going to have fewer catches than Tyreek Hill, I think it could be close. But I also think there's a chance that Le'Veon could get more, even if both play 16 games. Can I mention one other factor about Tyreek that we're not – I just don't think we should forget about this.

There's always a chance that something comes out that could send him right back to the commissioner's exempt list. Well, I said that at the beginning. Oh, okay. I'm glad you said that. I'm sorry I didn't catch it. No, that's all right. But I think that could be baked in a snitch into his draft value. And so if you're a little bit worried about that coming back to bite you,

you just can't draft him. All right, then this is legitimately the last thing we'll do. We'll go Heath, then Dave, then Jamie. I want you to just tell me the wide receivers you have ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill, just so everybody knows. We're going non-PPR or PPR? You can give me both. Okay.

All right, go for it, Heath. In non-PPR, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, and Juju. And in PPR, you can add Julio Jones to that. Didn't you already say Julio Jones? Michael Thomas to that. Okay. Julio Jones is that much better. Okay, is that it?

Yep. All right, Dave, you're up. My top five non-PPR, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Devante Adams, Odell Beckham, and Tyree Kill in full PPR. Top seven, Hopkins, Julio, Adams, Odell, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, and then Tyree Kill in at seven. Okay, Jamie, finish it off. Big finale. Not in PPR. He's fifth. So it's Adams, Hopkins, Julio, and Juju in PPR. Same four plus Odell. That's the one I'm struggling with in PPR just because I think if Beckham plays 16 games,

he'll catch more passes. Interesting. No love for Sterling Shepard. I'm sorry. I have Michael Thomas ahead in PPR as well. Okay, cool. Thank you, everybody. Thanks for doing this little bonus episode.

I hope the listeners enjoy it. And we hope you have a wonderful weekend. We will talk Thank you, everybody. Thanks for doing this little bonus episode. I hope the listeners enjoy it. And we hope you have a wonderful weekend. We will talk to you on Monday. Dave? Na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Are you doing it or am I doing it? I don't know, Dave. How's everything going today?

Everything's great. I'm going to make everybody jealous. I'm going to go get ready to go to an Air Supply concert tonight. Oh, fun. Okay, now we can sing. How do you like that? Sorry, guys. My favorite Air Supply song. I. Oh, fun. Okay, now we can sing. How do you like that? Sorry, guys. My favorite air supply song.

I only have two tickets. Can't take all of you. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.