Fantasy Football Today - 07/22: Five Fun Questions; Dynasty Talk; Draft Strategies by Format (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 22, 2019

Should Fantasy owners be worried about Melvin Gordon (3:05)? Is Emmanuel Sanders the #1 WR in DEN (6:35)? What kind of role will Josh Jacobs have on passing downs (8:35)? What was the most overlooked storyline of the offseason (10:30)? Most overblown storyline (13:40)? ... News and notes (18:00) as we discuss Ezekiel Elliott, the CHI backfield and much more. Then we have a fun surprise for our listeners at Heath's expense (22:40)! And we're talking Dynasty on today's show! Young WRs with old QBs (25:50) and rookies moving up and down in the Fantasy world (31:40) ... How to draft in non-PPR and PPR (39:00). We don't necessarily have a consensus, but we'll give you some different ideas and ways to start your teams ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, the time has come.

We are podcasting five days a week. Get excited. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. For any new listeners or for you diehards out there, I promise you will not find a more comprehensive Fantasy Football podcast. So thank you everybody for choosing our show. And now let's win

some leagues. I'm Adam Azer. Today I picked the Falcons to win the Super Bowl. Please don't let that ruin all of my credibility. Here's Dave Richard. I'm going to move Matt Ryan down in my rankings following that proclamation. It's only because I love their concession stand prices. Here's Jamie Eisenberg.

Having covered the Super Bowl in Mercedes-Benz Stadium and they kept the prices the same and having to sit in the stands where that was my source of food, it was enjoyable. Was the food good? I heard the food's good too, right? Food was good.

I think I kept it pretty vanilla though. I think it just had a chicken sandwich, but it was good. Vanilla ice cream is really good, by the way. I know it's vanilla, but it's really good. Heath Cummings. Oh, the hot takes today. What's up, Heath?

Favorite ice cream flavor. You don't like ice cream. The state of Minnesota already hated you. Now the state of Georgia is going to hate you. I hate you. Is there anyone left that doesn't hate you? Maybe some listeners. Remember, I actually picked the Falcons to go to the Super Bowl last year, I think.

I declared them my team. And then everybody got hurt by like week five. They got hurt by week one. Are you upset at Odell Beckham for his GQ interview? No, why would I be upset? He should do what he wants. I think that it's interesting to hear his takes on things. It's tough to be an athlete and get so much criticism for so many things.

I obviously think that he brought some of it onto himself, but I don't think that even you act like kind of a fool on the sidelines. Does that mean that people should say mean things to you? No. So I understand he was considering retirement, according to him, really fighting it, wasn't so happy. I'm glad he's out. Everybody needed a fresh start,

and I'm looking forward to what he's going to do in fantasy this year. That's for sure. When you grow into a full-size man, will you actually wear the jersey? No, I'm never going to grow into the jersey. I have a gigantic jersey that is almost as big as my Giants onesie. All right, guys, so I want to start with five fun questions. Some of them you can read in a column that Heath posted on our website, cbssports.com slash fantasy slash football. Some of them, Chris Towers, our editor, sent to us. So it's a little mix up there. I want to talk

dynasty today because I know a lot of people are doing dynasty drafts. I'm doing a dynasty rookie draft, slow draft as we speak. So I want to talk about that and hopefully how to draft in different formats. Some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. All right, so first question. This is from Heath. I'll let Heath answer first. How worried should fantasy owners be about a Melvin Gordon holdout? Increasingly.

More and more the longer that it goes. Right now I've dropped him down to a second-round pick. That doesn't feel good. I'm worried he's going to miss time. And I think that there's several different outcomes. He may not miss any time at all. He may just miss camp and then show up week one and have a reduced workload earlier in the year and then be fine.

He may get traded, which would almost certainly hurt his value. It's hard to find a spot as good as the one he's in right now. Tampa Bay. Could be Tampa Bay. So I think right now you should be don't draft him in the first round worried. If this is going on three weeks from now, you should be don't draft him in the first two rounds worried. If this is going on a month from now,

you should be probably not going to draft Melvin Gordon worried. We kind of got a peek into his mindset last year when Sports Illustrated's cameras were at his house and they were talking about Le'Veon Bell holding out. And he flat out said he would hold out too. He didn't want to come back and get hurt. So I wonder if he's going to follow that same path that Le'Veon did. And that just makes me scared to take him. Does anybody have Melvin Gordon as a top 12 pick right now?

No, you can't. I mean, it's gutsy. It's just, why would you take that risk? Oh, well, I think there's an obvious reason why. Because he's the number five pick two weeks ago. So if he signs and he's playing week one, you're going to be thrilled to have him with the first round pick. The one saving grace, we just finished talking about this on CBS Sports HQ, is he was with the team this offseason. So it's not like he hasn't been in shape, working out,

doing all the things he's supposed to do to get himself ready for camp. And so that I think you could take some solace in that, is that he's going to show up when he does ready to go, as opposed to most guys that you don't know what they're doing. Okay, I want to get to our next question, but final answer. In your mind, is there any chance that a handcuff, likely Austin Eckler, could be not James Conner good, but let's say like a top 24, like a second round pick good,

if Melvin Gordon were to take this Le'Veon route and sit out the whole year? Yes. No. Second round, no. Top 24, yes. There's a year. Yes. No. Second round? No. Top 24? Yes. There's a difference, right? No. Top 24 running back.

But I'm not... You're going to find top 24 running backs outside of round two. Top 24 overall. I'm sorry. Let me qualify. I'm going to say no. Like major impact player. You say no. Yeah, I think he was around, what, 16, 17 touches per game

in the games that Melvin Gordon missed last year. If he gets 16 or 17 touches per game, I would anticipate he is going to be worth a second round value. He was one of the most efficient running backs in the passing game last year at 7.6 yards per target. And was even better than that in 2017. He's very good i think if you want to have a very optimistic approach like hope for tree coin all right next

question emmanuel sanders not on the pup list has made great progress from his recovery from the achilles surgery is emmanuel sanders the number one wide receiver on Denver? And before I forget, just so everybody knows, Emmanuel Sanders and Julian Edelman both played 12 games last year. They both missed four games. They had nearly identical stats in terms of catches and yards. Edelman had two more receiving touchdowns. Sanders had a passing touchdown. So they were very, very close, both top 15 wide receivers and points per game. Is Emmanuel Sanders, though, Denver's number one wide receiver? No.

I'm not drafting him that way. I'm drafting him as their number two. Currently, I would say yes. And he's dead. He's not going to be a full go for two to three weeks. So if it's a month from now and he's not a full go, then I might change my opinion. But I kind of

and I think it was Sigmund Blum that tweeted this yesterday. I kind of view it the same way he does that the answer to the Broncos receiving the receiver you want in fantasy is either Emmanuel Sanders or no one. Anyone care to disagree with that? I would absolutely

disagree. I'd take a chance on the two young guys before Sanders. I would take the chance on Sutton. I love Deshaun Hamilton. I do too, but I don't know how much of an opportunity he's going to get because he blew up when Sanders was gone because he played in the slot. If Sanders comes back to that slot role, where does Deshaun go? Outside? Third receiver? I think Sutton's role is locked up as an outside guy flacco likes throwing

to that type of target so i i would take him first but none of these guys are top 70 picks for me okay and over the last five seasons we've seen steve smith tory smith kamar aiken mike wallace and even john brown for nine games with Joe Flacco perform like, you know, top 20, maybe top 30 in non-PPR for a guy like Kamar Aiken. But he has been able to give us some good wide receiver production. Next question. All right, you guys might have to help me out.

I don't know how to pronounce the name of the writer. Vic Taffer of The Athletic, Raiders writer, expects Jalen Rashard to lose a good chunk of his receiving work to Josh Jacobs what does that mean for fantasy guys uh 68 catches for Jalen Rashard last year what do you think this means this report from the athletic to me it's obvious they spent the first round pick on Josh Jacobs. He's a good pass catcher out of the backfield. I never really had Jalen Richard in my equation as a mid to late round pick in PPR anyway. This was not one of the ones that I chose that I believe, and I could be wrong.

But Jalen Richard, I mentioned how effective Austin Eckler was in the passing game last year. Only Eckler and Tariq Cohen were better than Richard in terms of a per-target basis. He was awesome last year as a pass catcher. I have a really hard time believing that a rookie is going to come in and be better than him in the passing game. It doesn't make sense. If you're going to ease Jacobs in, this is the spot to spell him. Maybe they won't ease him

in. Maybe they'll go Barkley. To answer your question, what does it mean? If that's actually true and he's going to get a good chunk of Rashard's work in the passing game, then he might be a top 12 back. I don't think he'll get all of it. I still think Rashard can get 30-40 catches this year, but I think Jacobs

could also get 30 or 40 catches. He is certainly being treated a little differently than some of the other first-round NFL draft pick running backs that we've seen. He's gone later than Barkley, Zeke, Fournette, McCaffrey, et cetera. But, yeah, you know, people are not saying, oh, first-round draft pick Josh Jacobs is going to have a NFL draft,

going to have a huge season. This might help if this report is true. Okay, so those were Heath's. They're in his Believe It or Not about Emmanuel Sanders, Melvin Gordon, and Jalen Richard. Next two questions come from our editor, Chris Towers. What was the most overlooked storyline

of the offseason? Jamie, I'll start with you. Overlooked? I think I answered the Ravens' running back situation. The fact that they led the NFL in rushing attempts last year, and they bring in two guys that I think are going to be their top two guys in Ingram, which I think is answered the Ravens running back situation. The fact that they led the NFL in rushing attempts last year and they bring in two guys that I think are going to be their top two guys in Ingram, which I think is obvious, but also Justice Hill. So adding those two pieces, I think, you know,

we clearly talk about those guys, Ingram obviously, but I just think there's a chance for both of them to be very good given the value that you're getting from them. I mean, Ingram's like a round five pick and some cases around six and Hill's going very late. It's an easy investment to making that backfield. That's hilarious because we didn't reply all on our responses. And my answer was the retooling of the Ravens offense.

Just like it is not just like the running backs are definitely part of that. But the two rookie wide receivers who I think are very talented, I think Greg Roman has a chance to have a very positive impact on Lamar Jackson. I believe five of his six years that he has called offensive plays, his offense is ranked in the top 12 in scoring. Wow. Damn. Not in the way we think about it because they run the ball way too much. But they're scoring a lot on the ground, I would assume. Yes.

That's awesome. Because they run the ball way too much. But they're scoring a lot on the ground, I would assume. Yes. I want those rookie receivers to come back because they'll help take the top off the defense, make it easier for the running backs. Dave, what was your overlooked storyline? I went with the Colts offense because I don't think enough people are talking about that and all the additions that they made. Funchess, Paris Campbell, Jack Doyle is coming back,

and Andrew Luck is surrounded by an incredible offensive line. They made no discernible changes to their run game. I think Luck's in for a monster year. And I said Aaron Rodgers being in a new system for the first time in more than a decade. Look, I'm going to certainly be guilty of it, but we're all going to more or less assume it's going to be a smooth transition.

We're going to put a lot of stock in this team and in Aaron Rodgers. We probably should, but at least consider the possibility there could be some bumps in the road. It's just a different situation than we've really ever seen Aaron Rodgers in. We were looking,

and I don't even remember how we got started in this conversation today, but we were looking at some late season schedules, and I almost decided I wasn't going to draft Aaron Rodgers this year. Their whole schedule's terrible. It doesn't really matter for Rodgers.

Week 15 and 16, the Bears and Vikings back-to-back weeks. He crushed them though last year, as I recall. I'll double-check. At least once he did. Bears in week one, he had 30 points. Minnesota in week two, he had 17 points.

Then he did not crush them. He was really bad against them. Heath, yeah, he sucked against them. 13 fantasy points at Minnesota, 12 fantasy points at Chicago in weeks 12 and 15, respectively. He didn't have Matt LaFleur.

Crush him in week one. But, of course, he was playing hurt after week one. All right. Finally, which storyline will end up being most overblown? Dave. I'll go with the hullabaloo about James Conner splitting carries in Pittsburgh. I think he's in line to be their lead guy. It's one of the issues that they don't even have to think about as a coaching staff.

They've got him there. They can use Jalen Samuels as a pass catcher some. If you want to give Benny Snell a couple carries here and there, go ahead. But they've got to figure out how to make this offense stay strong without antonio brown there they've got they've got the replacement for levion bell already covered they had that last year now they got to focus on the passing game okay next up let's go to jamie uh cam newton shoulder injury um you know i think the panthers are giving us enough indication that he should be fine. Okay.

I was just showing Jamie my email to Chris in response to these questions. My exact wording, Cam Newton shoulder injury. That's funny. Well, I sent Chris. I thought you were going to show me something that Cam's like dead. Cam will be placed on reserve PUP. I responded with Nick Chubb, with Kareem Hunt, basically, in his role. I think that might end up being overblown. And if Nick Chubb does well during Hunt's eight-game suspension,

then he's going to be just fine moving forward. But I actually, and I think this will tie into some of the news we need to talk about, it could very well be that the most overblown storyline of the offseason is Todd Gurley's injury. So far, so good, I guess. Sean McVay said Gurley's ready to go. So far, so good. They haven't started training camp yet. But at least the report is good. At least the quote

is good. And it's possible that it's going to be overblown. It's very possible. So far, I've been the most optimistic on Gurley. Where are you guys at with Gurley right now? I'm still pessimistic. I'm worried about they've got to maintain his knee for the rest of his career,

much less this season, much less training camp. You're not going to see him in the preseason. I would be surprised if you see him in a joint practice. The Rams have two. If he was in one of those, I'd be encouraged. But I think his touches are going to go down, and I think his numbers ultimately will go down. Okay.

All right, guys. Well, thank you for answering five fun questions. We have a Facebook group where we also ask fun questions. Please join it. It's just Fantasy Football Today. Let's set a goal of 8,000 followers. We're at

3,600 or something like that. 3,500. Let's get up to 8,000 before the season starts. Join Fantasy Football Today. Interact with us. That's not nearly high enough is it for something that started a few weeks ago yeah i think you're you're not aiming high enough what are you okay you want to throw out a number let's go for 20 000 by next year sure uh by by week one on twitter thursday

week one we are i'm at adam azer as er he ER Heath is at Heath Cummings senior Heath Cummings SR Jamie is at Jamie Eisenberg JME Y and Dave is at Dave Richard and listen training camps are here football's back and the pick six NFL podcast will be with you all preseason just like they've been in your podcast inbox every day throughout the entire offseason. Join host Will

Brinson daily to catch up on the latest from around the league with an added fantasy and gambling twist. In fact, you're going to hear Heath on there a lot. Dave, I probably hear everybody but me on that show, Pick Six. So get ready for 2019. Subscribe to the Pick Six podcast anywhere podcasts are

found. And I hope everybody enjoyed the video show, Fantasy Football, today this afternoon, noon Eastern, Monday through Friday on CBS Sports HQ. We also have an NFL show debuting today. You probably listened to this after it noon Eastern, Monday through Friday on CBS Sports HQ. We also have an NFL show debuting today. You probably listened to this after it already debuted, but every day at 4.30 Eastern, we'll be talking football. And thank you.

Last reminder, just about the programming. I mentioned we're five days a week. This week, we're recording in the afternoon, so the episodes will be out a little bit later. But beginning next week, we're recording at 8.30 in the morning, if we're recording in the afternoon so the episodes will be out a little bit later but beginning next week we're recording at 8 30 in the morning if we're all here uh and uh we'll get the episodes out nice and early for you so that'll be beginning next week and moving forward your news and notes and then i've got a little present for all of our loyal listeners so don't turn off the show just yet ezekiel elliel Elliott is looking like he might report late at the very least.

So if we're all moving Melvin Gordon out of the first round, when do we start freaking out about Zeke? Zeke-ing out. August 6th. That's his day to report to get a season to accrue to free agency, right? Yep. Correct. Okay. So he's still a agency, right? Yep, correct. Okay. So he's still a top four pick?

Yep. Yes. What did you think of what Matt Nagy said about David Montgomery's workload? Not surprised. Saying that he'd get a lot of work in the preseason? Kind of hinting toward a committee, right? Sure.

I think we knew it would be a committee. It's just a matter of Montgomery leading the committee or having 60% of the committee, but still being a committee. What do you think about Julian Edelman out about three weeks with a thumb injury? I mean, it stinks, but it's not an important three weeks, given the fact of what his tenure is with the team and should allow the younger guys to get an opportunity to get some reps. But you never want to have an injury. Okay, next news item. Julio Jones still rehabbing a foot injury.

DeAndre Hopkins is on the active pup list. Are you guys concerned about the health of either Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins? No reason to right now. Nope. No, but a good sign, though, is Will Fuller. Yeah. Not being on the public. Sonny Michel is also on the active public, but not a big deal as of now, right?

More worried about him than I am those receivers. Oh, by far. But not surprising. Well, I guess maybe I was a little surprised. I mean, we knew he had a procedure during the offseason. But there was a lot of optimism after that. Like, oh, he's going full speed. He's running.

He was? Yeah. All right, well, that's Sonny Michel. Hopefully he'll be back soon. The Houston Chronicle says that Will Fuller is expected to be ready for week one. Philadelphia signed Darren Sproles to a one-year deal. Is this a big deal for anybody? Not really for Sproles, but for maybe Miles Sanders?

Stinks. It sucks. It stinks and it sucks, Adam. Sproles had 7.3 touches per game in the games he actually played in the last two seasons with the Eagles, getting about five carries per game, two and a half catches per game. And this is a, this is a team that just believes in shared workload at running back. It's going to be a three headed monster until guys start to stink or get

hurt. It may be one after that. They've got seven of them. And Doug Peterson even had a quote. I don't know if it was directly in response to this, but basically saying we want a championship without a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver so it can be done. That's the plan. Well, we hope that does not happen. That would be bad for Zach Ertz. Let's talk about the Chiefs' wide receivers.

We get a report from Pro Football Talk that the Chiefs could consider trading Tyreek Hill. I sort of interpreted that as after this season, right? Who knows? I don't know. Okay. And then from the athletic,

Demarcus Robinson could be asked to play Chris Conley's role for Kansas City, and Conley did get a lot of snaps last year. Is there anything here that's worth talking about? The Robertson thing makes a lot of sense. Robinson. Robinson. What did I say? Robertson? I said Robinson.

That makes sense. I think he can fit into that role nicely. And Tyreek's in a contract year, if I'm not mistaken. Yes. So they would have to franchise him and then trade him next year if they were going to trade him next year. I can't

imagine there's a team dying to give up picks to pay Tyreek Hill in the league right now. I got to be honest with you, that felt like a slow news day type of... Just even that we're talking about the headline, there wasn't that much to it, in my opinion. Okay, some more news. Vic Fangio, he said that quarterback Drew Locke is not a quarterback yet. He's a hard-throwing pitcher who doesn't know how to pitch yet.

His college offense had no carryover to pro offense. Okay, that's cool. And he's also banning music from Denver's practice. So fun to be a Bronco right now. Vic Fangio basically saying, why did we draft this guy? Pretty much. Look, he's obviously a bit of a project. And John Elway has a great track record drafting quarterbacks,

so I'm sure it'll be fine. Buffalo safety Raphael Bush retired. Denver linebacker Todd Davis out three to four weeks with a partial calf tear. And Atlanta signed Deion Jones, who is going to help them win the Super Bowl this year. Now, what's the present that I have for our listeners? Well, you know, I work hard on this show to come up with some good stuff, and I think I got something. We all know the Heath sigh, right? Okay. Heath, when he's thinking, he likes to sigh. At one point a few weeks ago,

we caught maybe the best Heath sigh there is, and it was this. And we've just had a lot of fun with it. So I put together a compilation of Heath's sighs. We'll continue to grow the compilation as much as we can. Heath, don't do it on purpose or anything, but as you sigh naturally, I'll make little mental notes. But here's what we have so far. Please, everybody, enjoy the HeatSci compilation. Do it. Do it.

Do it. Oh, my God. There you go. That is fantastic. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. It took several weeks to come up with, like, nine drops. Do it. Thank you. Thank you. It took several weeks to come up with like nine drops.

Do it. Do it. Do it. Is also great. So there we go. Ringtones to be had. We'll take a quick break. When we come back, we're talking Dynasty on Fantasy Football today.

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Grab from Columbia, South Carolina, says, Dear Williams, Stewart, and McCaffrey. Panthers running backs. Yes. It's been killing me why everyone is talking about the Browns trading Duke Johnson when they should be talking about them trading Kareem Hunt. Dorsey gives Johnson

a three-year extension, then signs Hunt to a one-year deal. Experts have admitted Hunt likely leaves in free agency, so did Dorsey just sign him for a one-year Super Bowl run, or did he see free value and plans to turn a one-year million dollar signing into a third or second round pick from an RB needy team with Super Bowl run, or did he see free value and plans to turn a one-year, million-dollar signing into a third or second-round pick from an RB-needy team with Super Bowl aspirations like the Texans? Is this even a 50-50 chance, and is Kareem Hunt worth a draft pick?

I like that theory. It's an interesting theory. I don't know how many teams are going to line up to trade for a guy who was caught on camera hitting a woman and then was in some sort of altercation at a bar. The one-year investment for the Browns is much more valuable to them than a sixth or seventh round draft pick. Well, what do they get in – like don't they get a comp pick if he leaves via free agency? If he signs a big enough deal. Yeah. Which he might if he gets the opportunity to play some. Yeah, and his value to them, if they're going to make a playoff run, could be significant because

Nick Chubb has yet to be a 16 game starter. They could use them in tandem for all we know. They would need almost exactly what Graham is talking about in trade. A third round pick or a second round pick. I don't think so. I think a team would have to be unbelievably desperate

for a running back in order for that to happen. But even if they're desperate, they're not getting him until Week 10. Yes, that's another good point. So I think that... I like the thought, just third or second-round pick is just not happening for a guy going into his walk year with his baggage.

Matt from Toronto. Now, the trade deadline may be different. Yeah, but I don't know. for a guy going into his walk here with his baggage. Matt from Toronto. Now, the trade deadline may be different. Yeah, but I don't know. Fourth or fifth round seems more realistic. Oh, there's no chance it'd be above a fifth round pick. All right, so let's talk dynasty wide receivers here as I use this email from Matt from Toronto. He says, on a recent pod, you had a brief discussion

about whether Juju Smith-Schuster could be the top wide receiver in dynasty. We talked about Juju being very young. I want to fully buy into this, but I have a nagging concern over how Big Ben's eventual retirement might impact Juju's performance over the next few years. Does the fact that the Steelers quarterback could be a huge question mark after this year cause you to lean towards theoretically more stable quarterback situations like Hopkins, OBJ, or Evans when picking among top dynasty wide receivers? And guys, I think we should extend Matt's question to Michael Thomas as well. And just, you know, it's really something to consider. I don't think I'd consider it with Devontae Adams,

but it's a good question. So as Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger are creeping toward retirement, how should that factor in when you are drafting dynasty-wide receivers? It's also, you know, for people still doing their rookie-only drafts, Nikhil Harry as the first receiver off the board, because Brady doesn't have...

I mean, he's going to play 10 more years, but after that, who knows? Yeah, you have to factor that in. That's a big part of it. Can, assuming it's Teddy Bridgewater, sustain the same success for Michael Thomas? Can Ben Roethlisberger, I would think probably two or three more years at least, continue to play at a high level? You probably should put Phillip Rivers in that category too

for Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry. But it doesn't seem like this is ever reflected when we talk about dynasty wide receivers, or maybe I'm just missing it, but are we overlooking this? Well, I mean, you say it all the time, Heath. You know, it's – and I feel the same way. It's a two- to three-year window is what you should sort of, you know, project it out. You know, if you get – I'll say three years from a receiver's standpoint. You get three great years of a wide receiver, you should be thrilled about that.

And with the very best receivers, you don't worry as much. DeAndre Hopkins has been awesome with some terrible quarterbacks. He wasn't with Osweiler, but all the other bad quarterbacks he was good with. Do you have the ages? Because I know you did it. I do. Because I'm curious, what young quarterback and young receiver pairing is there that, like, you could say, if Tyreek Hill didn't have his situation. Well, and that's the weird thing about receiver.

Of the top 11 receivers in my dynasty rankings, Juju is the only one under 25. Right. So, like, where Watson's entering his prime, by the time he's, like, and he's great now, clearly, but Hopkins is going to start to lose it. Right. And so it's like where Adams and Rodgers, they don't really intersect. Thomas and Brees don't intersect. Beckham's four years older than Juju Smith-Schuster. Well, what's a reasonable, I think, I expect a great wide receiver to be great until he's 32, 33?

I would say 31, 32, yeah. Okay. When I say great, I mean like when they're at their peak. How old are these guys? They're like 26-ish? Hopkins is 27. Juju is 22. Those are my top two.

And then the next four, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham, Devontae Adams, and Mike Evans are all 26. Like if Jameis gets his act together, that's a great pairing. Yeah. I think I have enough confidence in Juju to be great without Roethlisberger. I don't know. So I'm not sure. If it's Mason Rudolph. I'd take Hopkins ahead of him though.

So Hopkins is your number one, Heath? Yes, Hopkins, then Juju. Jamie Dave? Like, Hopkins at 27 is great, but you just have to hope that he stays this for another three, four years. It's hard not to expect that, though. Like, Julio and Ryan are not the greatest example

because they're both in their 30s. I was just crushing... How old's Devonta Adams? 26. And Rogers is 35. I was just crushing... How old's Devonta Adams? 26. And Rodgers is 35. I was just doing numbers on Devonta Adams this morning just to kind of put down on paper what everybody already knows, but he's been a top five overall non-quarterback. Top five running back slash wide receiver tight end

three of the last four years. I think it's number five, actually. DeAndre Hopkins. DeAndre Hopkins, yeah. Okay. Obviously, he had that one down year with Osweiler. But before that, his quarterbacks were terrible before Watson. Savage and whatnot.

What could be great is if you get Paris Campbell just blowing up. If you get Meikle Hardman blowing up. You know, these young guys. If Lamar Jackson becomes a great passer. I was about to say, Marquise Brown. Right. You know, with either guy, you know, Boykin or Brown. You know, any of these young receivers coming in now with the younger quarterbacks, that would be fantastic.

You know, any of the two young Bills guys, you know, whether it's Foster or Zay Jones. You know, I mean, it's. There's a couple of 25-year-olds that probably should be in that discussion, but one of them is not for a different reason, but cooks is only 25 and he's got a young quarterback Tyree kill still just 25. Well, I mean, if he'll, if they work out a long-term deal and he stays on a straight and narrow, it could be just ridiculous for that. It could be number one. Yeah. Yeah. Like, like our dynasty league that we're in together. I, I have what could be just a tremendous situation if it continues. One is Michael Thomas and the other is Tyreek Hill. I have both those guys, you know?

So like I, I conceivably, and I've got it, you know? So like my, my core of my, my receivers should be fantastic. But two of those guys have ifs, you know, in terms of their quarterbacks. Okay, guys. So I want to talk just a little about dynasty now, and then I definitely need to get to how to draft in different formats and strategies are starting to really become a little bit clearer to me in non PPR versus PPR. But in terms of dynasty,

since the NFL draft, it's been several, it's been two months or so. What do you think has changed? Who has moved up the most? Who has moved up the most? Who has moved down the most? Because I'm doing a dynasty draft right now, and the one guy that I feel like is moving down a lot is so limited.

It's basically just like people I talk to in my drafts, whatever. But Marquise Brown, the first wide receiver drafted in the NFL draft, Ravens rookie. I just took him with the fifth pick of the second round. So that's 17th overall. That's stupid great value. Yeah. And look, I know that's not going to happen in an analyst draft,

but sometimes we have to remember there are a lot of drafts that are going to have curious picks out there. But anyway, I still feel like there's some downward momentum with him. But what do you guys think? Who do you feel like is moving the most up or down among the rookies? Since the draft? Hardman. With the Tyree kill.

Has everything gotten more optimistic? Campbell is another one. Sanders for sure. King Butler. Rock. I think you've seen Daryl Henderson. He went from an early second round pick to a top five pick in one of my drafts. I guess I see that.

Yeah. Do you know if that guy had Todd Gurley? No, I had Todd Gurley. I actually went. I was the eighth pick. I went in thinking, okay, I'm going to take Henderson at eight. I was actually trying to make some trades to get any pick from seven through 12 to give myself two picks in the first round. I wasn't able to do so.

Um, and then when he took, um, as an analyst dynasty league. So I went and I looked, I'm like, Oh, he,

he, he was at the time the lowest on Todd Gurley. I don't know where he is now, but, um, in any event, there was no, like,

let me see if I could trade him Gurley for, for a couple of picks or a couple of players. Uh, or can I try and get Henderson from him? I ended up getting Sanders at eight. And that was the first sign to me, like, okay, Sanders is going to fall a little bit. And two other wide receivers I want to mention.

Do you feel like DK Metcalf's stock is up since the draft? I've not moved him. I've just left him in the same place, but I had him third overall. I'm not in enough rookie-only drafts to know where his ADP is, but he's in that top 15 range. I imagine he's still there. I had an actual trade offer in that league,

and this was done maybe a month ago, six weeks ago. A trade offer for the eighth pick. Somebody trying to get DK Metcalf at that spot. Yeah, that's where he went in the draft that I'm doing right now. Yeah, no, he went ninth. Sorry. Daryl Henderson went ninth. I think it was a report this weekend that they're expecting their

top three receivers to be Lockett, Brown, and Moore. Jerron Brown and David Moore. And then the other guy that I feel like just in seasonal, in redraft leagues, we're not talking about him at all, and I get it, but A.J. Brown of Ole Miss wide receiver

A.J. Brown, now with the Titans, fourth wide receiver off the board, 51st overall pick. Yeah, he's like kind of a mystery, I guess. I love what I saw after. Obviously, I don't follow college football super close other than my team, but he looks really good. I'm excited about A.J. Brown. I don't love the landing spot.

But, yeah, I don't know. I feel like he's kind of a mystery, along with probably Andy Isabella. Those two guys seem like mysteries to me, both second-round NFL draft picks. I love Isabella. Yeah, I was going to say Isabella and Keyshawn Johnson are two guys who are going up dynasty boards. Isabella is just a really good fit for that offense, and Johnson's route running could push him into some playing time

sooner than later in Arizona. Kyler Murray went fourth in my draft. I took David Montgomery fifth. So I had the fifth pick. Nice. I ended up with Montgomery and Marquise Brown. It's a great start. Did you have a third-round pick yet or no?

No, not yet. It's a very slow draft. No, Kyler is someone who's also gone up quite a bit. People are getting – there's two camps, and people are getting really excited about the Arizona offense and what it could be. I think it depends on your format, too. Like, ours is a one-quarterback league, and I think he went ninth or tenth, if I'm not mistaken.

I know Nick Costas took him. And then in the other one that I'm in, it's a super flex league. He was the first overall pick. Yeah, he was the first overall pick. Yeah, he was the first overall pick in my Superflex League, too. So if we could sum up what you guys just said, give me some of the names that you think have moved up and some that have moved down. Henderson has moved up. Isabella has moved up.

I got some that are lesser. Right, those are the guys that are... Hill's moved up. Justice Hill was one of the names. Those are good first, second round guys. Keyshawn Johnson, Benny Snell, Arsega Whiteside, Terry McLaurin, Josh Oliver, Dawson

Knox. Arsega Whiteside is up? I think so. I haven't seen that. I think you'll see him in round three. That's right. He was actually going to round two. Oh, all right. So never mind. Well, no, because I was going to think. Maybe he's going down then. I was going to possibly take him if Marquise Brown hadn't been on the board.

But that was with the 17th pick in this rookie draft. But I feel like he's not going to have a big role this year. We seem to have sort of established that. But that's not necessarily a reason to shy away in a dynasty league. But where do you feel? How do you feel? I can tell you the ADP for rookies right now. You keep talking. I'll look it up. Oh, yeah. No, I just want to know how you guys feel about JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who was drafted after Mikko Hardman, but before Paris Campbell. These guys went 56th, 57th, and 59th overall. Hardman, Arcega-Whiteside, and Paris Campbell. He's my number 30 overall player.

Yeah, his ADP is as the 13th rookie off the board. So right now the ADP, this is a fancy football calculator for rookie-only drafts. It does not say format. I don't know if you can do that for this. But in any event, it's Jacobs, Montgomery, Sanders still three, Kyler four, Harry five, Henderson six, and then it's three receivers in a row. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and then Marquise Brown.

Paris Campbell's the next receiver after that at 11. I think the tight ends are slipping a little bit too. I think a lot of people are excited about Hawkinson. They should be, but they're falling. I'll tell you one guy who's probably going to start to rise depending on when you do a draft is Devin Singletary. You know what the reports about them possibly trading with Sean McCoy? Singletary in redraft leagues

too. That's the guy that could be. Yeah. You know I like that. Adam's very excited about Devin Singletary. By the way, I have seen that JJ pronounces his last name Arthaga Whiteside. I don't know if you guys have seen any of this. But I think it last name Arthaga Whiteside. I don't know if you guys have seen any of this, but I think it might be Arthaga Whiteside.

I had not seen that. On Eagles Reddit, it says he's from Spain, and I'm going to try to look up the Stanford Cardinal pronunciation guide. Stanford Cardinal, because of the color red. Cardinal red. I think they're just... I love Stanford, but I don't like that their team name is the Cardinal, and I hate their mascot. I hate their mascot.

Okay. How to draft... Wow, where did that come from? Yeah, it bothers me. You know their mascot. He's a stupid guy in a tree outfit. You can see his legs, and he just dances around all the time. I'm entertained by him. Is there a school bus?

Make like a tree and leave? What? Okay. How to draft the different formats. So how about here are the numbers that I'm sure will not surprise anyone, but I just looked at the last two seasons and the top 60 non-quarterbacks. So wide receiver, running backs, and tight ends. Top 60 in non-PPR, half PPR, and full PPR.

In non-PPR, running backs outnumbered wide receivers by three in 2018, and they were tied in 2017. So most of the top five in any format is going to be running backs. And then in non-PPR, you know, all the top six, none of the top 12 were running backs. So kind of top heavy. But if you just look at the top 60, and I chose 60 because that's two running backs, two wide receivers, and a flex times a 12-team league, that's 60 spots. Anyway, fairly even but slightly favors the running backs in non-PPR. Half PPR,

there were seven more wide receivers than running backs in the top 60 in 2017 and five more in 2018. And then in PPR, if you're thinking, should my flex be a running back or a wide receiver, I would say probably should be a wide receiver. You're probably going to have more success there because over the last two years, there were nine more wide receivers than running backs in the top 60, both in 2017 and 2018. So I don't know, just maybe a general thought, guys,

when you look at the three different formats, non, half, and and full ppr what changes well i think the talent pool is obviously deeper at running back in full ppr there's more running backs that you'd feel comfortable starting because of their pass catching prowess but there's also a lot more wide receivers because of the receptions that uh that make them more appealing and of course their value is going to go up very few running backs catch more than 60 because of the receptions that make them more appealing. And, of course, their value is going to go up. Very few running backs catch more than 60 passes.

A ton of receivers catch more than 60 passes. So, to me, this is common sense. Nothing more. Thanks for crapping on my segment, Dave. No, you're right. You're right. You're right. We're just underscoring that receivers have more value in leagues where catches count.

And sorry, Adam, that's common sense. It's absolutely true. I think you should think a guy like Sonny Michel, what kind of value does he have in PPR? What round would you take Sonny Michel in a PPR league? He had eight catches last year, I think. Late six. Yeah, six. At the earliest right he he would have to have just a great great season 12 12 or more possible but 12 or more touchdowns probably

to uh really make a huge impact there and i'll underscore again the trends more and more 50 catch receivers five straight years it's gone up. Probably even more than that. Four straight years it's gone up at least. It's just more and more important. If you're going to get a running back, he's got to catch something. But I would say this. Unless it's Marlon Mack because you love him. In a PPR league, if you have an early pick, especially

one or two, in a 12 team league, I think the obvious strategy is to go running back in rounds one, four, and five. And probably take two receivers in rounds

two and three, but you could obviously consider the tight ends there as well. I am very excited about that strategy. Yeah, it's just going to depend. Because I do think there's a little bit of a drop off there. I would like to do that. Drop off where? You hate this conversation. Oh, so much. I'm just trying to act like I have something to add. I don't really. He does not do this. Well, why do you want to pigeonhole yourself?

No, I'm not going to pigeonhole myself, but that's the way it's working out. If Mike Evans, Keenan Allen are gone when I get to the end of the second round, I don't really feel very good at all when I take A.J. Green or T.Y. Hilton or Stephon Diggs in the second round. Yeah, but if you don't take a wide receiver with any of your first three picks, by the time you get— I might. But if you don't, I'm just saying, if you don't,

and you get to the 48th and 49th overall pick at the end of round four and the beginning of round five, who are you looking at? Calvin Ridley and Cooper Cupp as your top two? I'm looking at a really awesome running back pair and a very good tight end. Well, here, I'm going to give you an example because Adam did, I think, almost what you're saying that you hate, Keith. He took, at the end of the 2-3 swing,

he took Alvin Kamara with the first overall pick. This is a draft we did with analysts from other sites. And he took T.Y. Hilton and Stephon Diggs with his second and third round pick. By the way, three receiver league. Three receiver league. Yeah. And then who are my running backs in rounds four and five?

Phillip Lindsay and James White. I was very happy with that. Kamara, Lindsay White, Diggs, and who was it? Who's my second pick? Loved it so much you forgot. Lindsay White and T.Y. H. And T.Y. Hilton. T.Y. Hilton.

I was very happy with it. And then I think my third receiver was Dante Pettis maybe? No, I took Pettis. You were mad at me for doing that. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I guess I'd probably be the other side of that. I took Mike Evans at the end of round two and Leonard Fournette with the first pick in round three.

So two running backs and a receiver. And then a tight end in round four. Or five. Very different. Very different. But I do have Cooper Cupp as my second receiver. Right. Which could be great. But I like the running backs. I could have if I wanted to take a third receiver. I probably would have taken

either Calvin Ridley or Tyler Boyd instead of Ingram. When we're looking at the 50th or so pick, or late 40s into the 50s, I like the running backs there better than the wide receivers, I think. That's kind of what I'm basing this on. So if you wait three rounds, if you have an early pick and you wait four rounds to take your first wide receiver, I think you might be disappointed. I'm looking at the guy, and I don't know how many of these will be available in your

draft, but I feel confident because I have James White and Phillip Lindsey back-to-back in my PPR rankings at 51 and 52 overall. There are four wide receivers that I have right in front of them. Cooper Cup, Tyler Lockett, Tyler Boyd, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin. Those guys won't all be there, but two of them will be. Right, but so will Philip Lindsay and James White and Mark Ingram. Right, but what I'm saying is I would rather have Kamara and, let's say, Ertz and Chubb. Well, he didn't have that option.

He could have had Ertz. He could have had Ertz and then Fournette? Yes, or Damian Williams or Aaron Jones. Right. Yeah, Damian Williams was tempting, I will say that. And then take those two wide receivers at the 4-5, I think. Okay, I prefer the better wide receivers at the 4-5, I think. Okay, I prefer the better wide receivers than the later

running backs. It's just interesting, though, that you took Hilton, because he's not the huge receptionist. He's not, but he's Hilton, you know? Who else could I have taken? Receiver? Because I took Diggs.

Well, so, this is another strategy of mine that I'm not sure I'm right about. But again, you add a position. This went from a two-receiver flex league to a three-receiver flex league. As soon as I add a position and I add more scoring, the tight ends become a little less valuable to me.

I've talked about that, but that's for sure in those big leagues with three flexes and whatever. This one, I don't know. I was definitely thinking about Zach Ertz there. I will certainly grant you that. Did you get to be your tight end? Someone terrible?

Jordan Reed. You were so excited about that. It was really late. I think I was the last person to take a tight end. I was surprised at the two receivers you took. Not that... I didn't expect you to take Fournette. I thought you would have taken one of the tight ends. What did Dave do?

I'm sorry? Let's hear what Dave did in this draft. Well, let's... Actually, let's talk about the different formats. I want to get back to the topic. No, I didn't want to get into this draft because I know you wanted to save it for another day. But I just thought it was interesting.

Given what you just said, you stuck to that theory almost to a T. Well, Mike Tagliere, I was talking about, he's on the Fantasy Pros podcast and he's going to come on at some point because he said I stole a bunch of his guys from him. So I was very happy to hear that. Very well-respected guy.

All right, so what about in non-PPR? Any strategies that you like or don't like in non-PPR? Can we go, should we go running back, running back in non-PPR? The best players available when you pick are running backs. I think it's not a bad way to go. What do you think? I think the player pool that you're dealing with from, I don't know, 20 on? Maybe that's too far.

17 on? 16 on? Again, just look at this draft. Davin Cook may fall. Gurley will be there, most likely. Chubb. Four net. Four net. And Damian Williams.

He may push himself into the second round based on ADP. If you have a late first round pick, though, let's say you have the 10th pick, and it's a 12-team league, and all of a sudden you're not picking again until the 34th overall pick, none of the guys you mentioned are going to be there, most likely in a non-PPR league. So if you're picking at the end of the first round, we've kind of talked about this a little bit with some of the other drafts.

The running back pool you're dealing with in the third, fourth round is pretty good. Here's what Jake Seeley did. He took James Conner and Melvin Gordon. Did he go for three running backs in a row? He did. But you're referencing the full PPR three receiver league, right?

Yeah. And I know in non- PPR, like if I have a chance to start off with Juju and Tyreek in that spot or Michael Thomas and Juju or Michael Thomas and Tyreek or Julio, I'm, I'm probably going wide receiver wide receiver because in non PPR, a lot of people are pushing the running backs up higher. I don't know, man.

In non-PPR, those running backs are just... A great running back in non-PPR is so extremely valuable. The points they score. Six of the top nine overall... All of the top six and nine of the top 12 overall players and 12 of the top

15 players were running backs in 2017. In 2018, all of the top five, seven of the top eight were running backs. There were five wide receivers, though, in the top 12 compared to just three in 2017 and 2018. The problem is it feels like we have a really good grip on who five or maybe six of those running backs are going to be. And I wouldn't even be that surprised if it was seven of the top eight again. But I feel more confident that those top seven wide receivers are going to be amongst the top 15 players or 16 players than I do which of those running backs are going to be in the top 12.

I need a lot of data to back that up. You know, just what Julio has done, what Hopkins has done, what the Packers' number one guy has done, you know, for Adams, what Tyreek Hill has done, what Thomas has done for the last couple of years, what Juju slash Antonio Brown has done as the Steelers' number one guy. You know, I mean, it's just so safe. And if you're talking about a group of like chubb dalvin melvin fournette girly yeah i'm sure half those guys are going to be considerably better than those six receivers but i'm not real confident which three are there's so many more flaws for those

but also there's well dave you get in on this because i'm not just i agree with everything you're saying i don't know that I'm going running back, running back, but it is definitely the highest upside move you can make in a non-PPR league. Yes, but I think what you're going to see most fantasy managers do this year is go either running back receiver or receiver running back with the occasional running back tight end mixed in with the first two picks. Because then they're not wedged into being in the mindset of,

I've got to take a wide receiver in round three. I have to do it. They can go in any direction they want in round three and in round four. I would imagine that in your draft you will see a minimum of seven drafters go running back something else in the first two rounds. And I would say that that's also playing it safe. And this is mainly in non-PPR. In PPR, we could definitely make the argument that picking late in round one

is a great time to go and get two receivers with back-to-back picks. But again, that's because the talent pools are deeper everywhere in PPR. So if you were to take two running backs with your first two picks, is that what you're saying, Adam? Yeah, I'm saying in non-PPR. I'm saying, yeah, you could do that only, and I would never do that in anything other than non-PPR. So we're talking, what, 36, 37 then, the next picks?

34. If you have the 10th pick, then it's 34. If you have the 12th pick, yeah, then 36, 37 are your next picks. So if you were to go running back, running back, based on ADP, I don't think this is realistic, but 36, 37 is Amari Cooper, George Kittle. I don't think we're going to see that.

What about right after that? It's still, I think, unrealistic. Stephon Diggs is 41. Edelman's 44. Edelman will be there. Edelman's 44. You might get Edelman. Edelman and Brandon Cooks. Let's just say those are the two guys. No, I wouldn't like that very much.

So if you went, let's say, Connor Gordon. Connor Gordon, Edelman Cooks. You wouldn't like that? I don't think I would take Edelman. I don't think I'd take Edelman. Connor Mixon, Edelman Cooks. You wouldn't like that? I would take D would take Edelman. I don't think I'd take Edelman. Connor Mixon, Edelman Cooks. You wouldn't like that? I would take Diggs over Edelman.

But my running back choice is there. My running back choice is there. Can I get Marlon Mack or Aaron Jones? Not get Marlon Mack based on the non-PPR ADP I'm looking at. Which is why these receivers are falling. Marlon Mack's ADP and non-PPR, according to the Finnish Football Calculator, is 25th overall. Thanks.

Yeah, so I think back end of round three is going to look a lot different depending on format. And I think we've pretty much, Jamie, if you have a late pick in a PPR league, you talked about it because Heath did this, I think, in one of our drafts of going receiver, receiver, running back, running back, right?

In PPR? We illustrated it with the draft we did the other day. It was non-PPR, but that was, you know, somebody took, I think it was Chris Hassel, one of our hosts on CBS Sports HQ. He took Devontae Adams, Travis Kelsey, Kerryon Johnson, and I forget the other running back, but it was just fantastic. Can't do that in non-PPR because Karyon won't be there at the end of the month. He might not be there in PPR by the time mid-August rolls around. But right.

Okay. All right. So. You want PPR what it looks like just based on ADP? Yeah, sure. Okay. So if you were to start your team with right now Beckham's at 12, Juju's at 14, so that would be your two picks. And then you come back

36-37. You have your choice of Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Kerryon Johnson, David Montgomery, Phillip Lindsay, Mark Ingram. It's over. You just won the league. Devontae Freeman right before that at 34.

Juju, Beckham, Jacobs, carry on. I mean, if you're concerned about Jacobs, because he's a rookie in Montgomery, throw them out. So let's just say you end up with those two receivers, carry on, and Lindsey. Or for me and Heath, it would be Kenyon Drake. Or you can go Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes' ADP is not falling that far.

Really? Well, in our leagues he will. Yeah, PPR. There's so much more to this conversation. Sorry, Heath, I'll let you get the last word, but there's so much more to this conversation. I mean, I didn't talk about quarterbacks and their value. I didn't talk about half PPR at all. So maybe we'll pick up on it. We'll extend the

conversation tomorrow. Heath, would you like to close it out? No. Heath, would you like to close it out? No. Okay, thank you. Heath, I'm very excited to talk more strategy with you tomorrow. And thank you all for listening. Should be fun, but I got to go back. All right.

Thanks. That's Jamie. And, yeah, I appreciate all the listeners. Tell your friends. Leave us a good review. And we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today. Na, na, na, na, na, na. friends leave us a good review and we'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today