Fantasy Football Today - 07/23: Absurd ADP, Fun QB Strategy, Sleepers (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 23, 2019

Some sleeper talk to start the show including ones we're targeting (1:50) and popular sleepers we're avoiding (6:45). How do we feel about Parris Campbell? Which Year 2 QB has too much hype? We also discuss the best RB handcuffs (9:45) and answer a league format question ... News and notes (14:30) including items on the ATL backfield, Jimmy Garoppolo and more. Then we unleash the Absurdometer as we look at some Average Draft Position. Todd Gurley (22:00), Damien Williams (25:30), Patrick Mahomes (30:00), Tyler Boyd (34:50) and several more ... Do you like to draft backup QBs (40:00)? Well if you do, we've got an interesting QB pairing for you to consider. It's guaranteed to win you your league! DISCLAIMER: No, it's not ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. A little ADP review on today's show.

Welcome again to Fantasy Football Today. What's going on? Adam Azer with Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg. We're also going to talk about sleepers and read some emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Also, a very fun quarterback strategy that I did not come up with. I will not take credit for it, I promise. What's up, Dave and Jamie? What's up, Adam and Azer? I like that. I can do that. Most people just call me by my last name, but Adam and Azar works for me. Hey, Dave, how you doing?

What about when you're around other members of your family? They know I'm Azar. They know I'm kind of carrying the team. They call you Azar, and they call your brother DA. Nobody calls him that. We did at Miami. It's been a while. It has. It's been a while. It has. It's done.

All right, so we're going to start with five fun questions like we did on yesterday's show. And I've got some fun things to promote, including a way to save a little money at Sportsline. Okay, so I do want to talk sleepers. So first question is, how do you define the term sleeper? Someone drafted with a middle or late round pick who you think will be better than expected. Who I think or you think? Well, you're the one drafting them, right? Yeah.

So you must think that they're going to be a sleeper. Are we cool with that definition? Mid to late round pick will exceed draft value? Yep. Okay. Who is the sleeper you are targeting in every draft? Curtis Samuel. Paris Campbell.

Curtis Samuel, let's talk about this. You really are targeting him in every draft, Jamie. Yep. Go on. Well, I mean, it's a receiving core that I think is somewhat wide open. I mean, I, I do believe that DJ Moore has a higher ceiling than, than Curtis Samuel, but the value getting for Samuel as the second guy in that offense or a second receiver in that offense, um, I think is incredible. Um, I just, you know, like the way that he finished last year, I think, you know, his, his standing with the team entering his third year in the NFL

is pretty solidified. I don't expect. It's hard to count on Greg Olson playing 16 games. It's hard to count on Chris Hogan being in a prominent role. Outside of McCaffrey as the slam dunk guy for touches, it would not surprise me if he's better than DJ Moore this year. Here's my favorite stat on Samuel. Last seven games, he averaged 11.6 PPR points per game. DJ Moore, same span, 12 PPR points per game. So if the difference between these two is going to be

less than half a PPR point, and you can get one in round 10 in your drafts, round eight if you're picking with Jamie, go with the one you get in. Later than that, round eight if you're picking with Jamie. Go with the one you get in. Later than that, Samuel's ADP is 132 right now. All right, so even later than round 10. But Jamie, you're taking him round eight, round nine, somewhere in that range. Yep.

Okay, here's my least favorite stat about not just Samuel, but basically anybody in Carolina that you have to consider here in the passing game. Let me just finish doing the times 16. Cam Newton in his career has averaged 3,703 passing yards per season. 3,703 per season per 16 games, I should say. And he's usually right around that number. I mean, that's a pretty strong number.

Only once in his career has he thrown more than 24 touchdown passes. That was in his MVP season. I do think you should be encouraged. He threw 24 last year in only 14 games, and he was playing with a shoulder injury. But I wonder, guys, if people are going to draft DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and obviously Christian McCaffrey with a top five pick, is there enough to go around?

Or does somebody suffer? You know, like, does it come at the expense of McCaffrey? Does it come at the expense of DJ Moore if Curtis Samuel has a good season? Of course, we don't really account for Olsen anymore, but that's just kind of what I'm thinking. Well, the tight ends. I mean, you know, Ian Thomas, I think, showed us at least in one of the two games last year that,

or one game at the end of last year, that he can be, you know, play Thomas, I think, showed us at least in one of the two games last year that or one game at the end of last year that he can be, you know, playmaker should also go down again. It's just expectations. You know, I don't expect Curtis Samuel to come in and be a even a thousand yard receiver, you know, but it's it's the hope that he's eight to nine hundred yards, you know, four to five touchdowns. I think, you know, 65 plus catches. I also think he'll do some damage, you know, with the ball in his hands behind the line of scrimmage. You know, whether it's catching screens or, you know, some, you know, jet sweeps, whatever. You know, they get creative with those guys, both him and Moore. It's not somebody I expect to be a week in, week out starter for me. But, you know, bi-week replacement, third receiver in a three receiver league, you know, when I need him.

But if DJ Moore doesn't take that next step, you know, Samuel started trending that way. You know, I think, I mean, you know, I look at third-year receivers all the time. He's tracking in the right direction, you know, building towards something. And so could he exceed what I think he's going to do? Potentially. But it's not an offense that's going to all of a sudden morph into the Chiefs or the Rams. They're not going to be that kind of a dynamic passing game. You just have to understand what you're getting.

This offense is predicated on making plays after the catch. And it's part of the reason why Cam Newton had the year that he had last year before his shoulder fell out of its socket. And these are two receivers that are very good at getting open in the short area, making a guy miss, and then getting yards after the catch. And to me, if they're similar, I can't see spending the draft capital on Moore. If he's the same guy as Samuel, in order for him to not be that guy, then you've got to see DJ Moore get more targets week in and week out. And to your question, Adam, I think it's going to vary. I think McCaffrey's going to get his every week. And then after that,

it's going to be a toss-up. One of those two... Like, DJ Moore might get six to seven a week and Curtis Samuel might get four to six. I think if you put it in that type of a ballpark, then that's a fair expectation. And that's probably why Moore will go ahead of him, but I don't know

if that's enough for him to go six rounds ahead of Curtis Samuel. Also, it's easy to forget Curtis Samuel because DJ Moore, first round pick. Curtis Samuel was a second round pick. He was the 40th pick in the draft in 2017, so there is pedigree there. But he had a quiet rookie

season, just nine games played, 15 catches, 115 yards. And he was hurt to start last year too. Okay. Let's get to our next question. Which popular in the industry sleeper are you avoiding, Dave? Lamar Jackson. I don't think he's worth the risk given the talent rich position, even though we're talking about taking Lamar Jackson with a late round pick. And it's hard to nitpick a late round pick, but I would just prefer to go in a different direction. A quarterback, not only are we unsure of how accurate he'll be

on his longer throws, I think there's questions about his durability and whether or not he'll be able to hold up for 16 games running as much as he does. Okay. Lamar Jackson, Jamie in the, in the industry sleeper you're avoiding? Paris Campbell. I know he's one of Dave's guys, but I just don't see him making a significant fantasy impact this year with all the mouths to feed in this Colts offense. I think it's going to be hard for him to stand out among this group of Hilton and Funchess and Ebron and Doyle back, hopefully 100%, what they'll get from the running backs.

I think he's going to be one of those guys that's better for the team than better for fantasy. So I was surprised to see. I actually thought, because you see usually in the industry drafts, Funchess goes significantly ahead of, significantly, four or five rounds ahead of Campbell. But Campbell's ADP is higher. It could just be, I'm looking at our ADP.

Our ADP could factor in rookie drafts. But I'd much rather have Funchess than Campbell this year. Okay. I brought this stat up before. I'll let you respond, Dave, since you had Campbell as the sleeper you're targeting. Lux had five healthy seasons. He's produced a 1,000-yard wide receiver every year, but no number two

wide receiver has had even 800 yards since Lux's rookie season when Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton both had 860 or more yards wayne had a huge year but last four healthy seasons for way uh for luck the number two wide receiver has not even gotten to 800 yards so why are you targeting paris campbell i think he gives indianapolis something that they haven't been able to give luck for a long time which is a reliable slot receiver he He's incredibly fast.

He's a good route runner. He's got room to improve there, but he's coming off of a 90 catch, 1,000 yard, 12 touchdown season at Ohio State. This guy can make great plays after the catch. I am very confident in the offense in Indianapolis, the scheme in Indianapolis, and I think he's their best fit in the slot. I know that they've talked about, before the draft, they talked about Devin Funchess playing in theapolis, the scheme in Indianapolis. And I think he's their best fit in the slot. I know that they've talked about, before the draft, they talked about Devin Funchess playing in the slot. And I know that they were impressed with Devin Funchess in OTAs, and we'll see if he gets that opportunity. But I went back and checked, and 43% of all targets to Indies receivers last year

went into the slot. 43%. Well, that's because Hilton plays in the slot, and he's going to continue to do that as well. I think that number's going to go up partially because of Hilton, but also because of Campbell. I'm banking on him having a sizable role from week one. Let's see what

training camp brings. Let's see what the preseason brings. I think Campbell's got very good ability and is in the right offense to produce. Okay. Two more questions. These actually come from our listeners. Fantasy to, uh, to produce. Okay. Two more questions. These actually come from our listeners,

fantasy football at cbsi.com. Drew from London wants to know what are the best players to draft as handcuffs, AKA which players stand the most to gain by another player losing their role due to injury or change in role. So he said, uh, stand the most to gain, that is the British version,

I guess, of Stan to gain the most. But yeah, so who are the best handcuffs is essentially the question, uh, for, from drew. You can start in new Orleans with Latavius Murray for Alvin Camara.

If anything ever happens to Camara, Latavius Murray is going to have a huge workload. I think that that one makes a lot of sense. You can go to Pittsburgh next. James Conner missed time last year. Jalen Samuels stepped right in. This year will be a little bit different. Samuels will have a role from week to week. And if Conner gets hurt, Benny Snell will probably get some opportunities. So is that really a good handcuff? I think I think Samuels is a good handcuff. I don't think he's a i don't think it's quite as good as latavius

to camara but i think he would register as one of the top 10 handcuffs that you could go and get i mean we saw it last year samuels was good when yeah it's just a matter of whether or not he gets that workload exactly i mean you know you start in kansas city with carlos side first starwin thompson second just to see what happens in case damian williams doesn't hold up um you know those two guys would probably split the touches, but you take Hyde first. I got a good sneaky one. I got a good one too. You can look at Giovanni Bernard with Joe Mixon.

Exactly. Giovanni Bernard, 17 touches and 19 touches in two games without Mixon last year. 19 PPR fantasy points, 24 PPR fantasy points. Very good stuff from Giovanni Bernard. And obviously Daryl Henderson with Todd Gurley, if in fact Gurley's Very good stuff from Giovanni Bernard. And, you know, obviously Daryl Henderson with Todd Gurley, if in fact Gurley's knee becomes a problem at some point.

We've known Dalvin Cook to miss playing time over the past couple of seasons, so Alexander Madison sure seems to be the backup to him. Would they ride him as much? I don't know who else they'd give the ball to there. Mike Boone, I think, is the other, the third stringer. There could be somebody else

that mixes in, but I think they like Madison to fill in for Dalvin Cook. He's a cheap one to get. Sorry, Adam. If you end up drafting Dalvin Cook in round two, you can get Madison round 10, round 11. Pick your 49ers backup.

Yeah. All right. From Julian, in a 12-team league, how many teams should make the playoffs? Six. How do you do it? How do you structure it? Either do top six. If you do

divisions, that changes things a little bit. I think top six, or you do five in the highest point leader. You could also do five in the highest point leader. You could also do five and the highest point leader. Okay, some people do division winners and then the points leaders. Yeah, whatever you want.

You like buys? Sure, yeah. I like buys. Give buys to the top two seeds. I like two divisions, and division winners get buys. Next four best records are in. That's how I do it. But I do like the...

All right, Jamie, what did you say? So top two and then three more based on record, and then the sixth spot goes to the highest scoring remaining team? Yes. Gotcha. Because we always have those situations where somebody gets unlucky. Right. Okay, a couple things i want to promote this show

is gonna be on video i am gonna have to get a little bit dressy maybe see here's the thing like the baseball guys i do the baseball podcast on video and they don't get dressed up at all like they wear like t-shirts dave jamie heath always dave and jamie at least always have a collared shirt on so i don't want to be super underdressed. So you guys need to tone it down a little bit. No. Come on. It's going to be 8.30 in the morning.

Who wants to be dressed up that early? Maybe we should go with backwards hats. Adam, I have 14 shows to do throughout the course of the day. Yeah, but this is your first. I'm giving you a breather. You don't have to be dressy for this one. Sorry. All right, well, we'll see what happens.

But we're going to be on YouTube. Find our YouTube page, we'll see what happens. But we're going to be on YouTube. Find our YouTube page, the CBS Sports YouTube page. Check it out. It might actually... Is it the Fantasy Football Today YouTube page? Let me find that out for you. In the meantime, sportsline.com.

Gambling, fantasy, great website, great sports resource for you. The promo code if you want your first month for a dollar is huddle. Go to sportsline.com slash join. Use the promo code huddle. First month is a dollar. After that, it's only $9.99.

All right. So let's do some news and notes real quick. As I try to find this. No, it's the CBS Sports page. Search for CBS Sports on YouTube and subscribe. You know, it's all free. And find Fantasy Football today. Our videos will be there.

So the Chargers, according to Charles Robinson of Yahoo, they are dug in on their stance with Melvin Gordon. So we talked about this at length yesterday. Anything you want to add, guys? You know, I keep dropping him. I dropped him from 8th to 12th. You know, I keep moving Eckler and Jackson up. It's time to start preparing as if he's going to miss some time.

Jeez, man. So lame. Come on. Sucks. You know, I always reference that Dynasty League I have. I drafted Gurley and Gordon with my first two picks. The league folded after one year. Now I'm happy about it.

That's good. That's why you play to win. You draft to win now. Yeah. In all those long-term formats. Because you never know if it's going to last more than a couple of years. Needs to be some type of dynasty prenup. Cincinnati signed Tyler Boyd to a four-year $43 million extension. He is on the

absurd ADP list, the absurd-o-meter. So we will talk about Tyler Boyd very shortly, but this is a nice little vote of confidence for a guy who was the number 17 wide receiver in both formats last season. Oh, I jinxed the Falcons, by the way. But before I get to that, Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn talked about how deep and talented the team's running back group is. Oh. Hmm.

That reaction? Yeah, we had Pete Prisco drink on our CBS Sports HQ show the last two days from Atlanta. And he said that one thing Dan Quinn told him was they're going to make an effort to run the ball better, run the ball in more obvious running down situations. Freeman will be the lead guy, and then we'll see who's behind him.

This kind of confirms what I was worried about with Freeman, which is they don't want to overwork him. As long as he's healthy, there will be games where they need him, and he'll have 17, 18 touches with gusts up to 20, 23. But there will probably be more games where he's 15 and fewer. Okay. Jimmy Garoppolo's knee is looking good, according to Matt Barrows of The Athletic. Not too knobby.

Not too knobby. Good knees. Dallas is going to release wide receiver Alan Hearns. NFL Network's Mike Garofalo says it could take a while for Trent Williams, the left tackle for the Redskins,

to return if he returns at all. Is this the lowest scoring team in the NFL, the Washington Redskins? Probably, yeah. Okay. Even the Dolphins have a better outlook. Probably, yeah. Okay. Dallas... Even the Dolphins have a better outlook.

Probably, yeah. Dallas center Travis Frederick, ready to go for training camp. He missed last season with Guillain-Barre syndrome, so good to see him back. Huge. Very, very good player. Very important.

Okay, here's how I jinxed the Falcons. Safety J.J. Wilcox tore his ACL, and Michael Bennett broke his ankle. That's not the same Michael Bennett that's, you know, the Michael Bennett, by the way. It's a guy that's just named Michael Bennett. Yeah. But still, these are depth pieces at worst,

and not good, but you know what? Good job. We can overcome it. The good thing is, if they go to the game, hot dogs are going to cost them like $250. Oh, you know what? Good job. We can overcome it. The good thing is if they go to the game, hot dogs are going to cost them like $2.50. Oh, you know what's a good podcast entry? What? For the podcast league,

we should have people send in their rival of their favorite team and the best way that you could jinx them. We're going to have some type of contest. Okay, we have some new listeners. This doesn't have to be the main contest, but I think this is a funny one. So if you're a Giants fan, let's just say your name is Adam, someone can send an email saying, I hope Ezekiel Elliott does blank. I'm supposed to say it out loud or something?

No, just the funniest one. You'll say the funniest one. Yeah, so we'll have a podcast league. We'll have two podcast leagues, actually. One of them will be a 14-team PPR league. The other will be a 10-team half PPR league that Heath is the commissioner of, so there will be no kickers. And yeah, I'll announce details on how to enter.

Also, we have a segment that people don't really know about that you should know about. It's one of our most fun segments, one of everybody's favorites. It's called the Fantasy Regulators. You send in your commissioner questions. We regulate. We play the Regulators music in the background, and

everybody has a good time. So if you have a Regulators question, please put Fantasy Regulators in the subject line. You have to do that. Fantasy Regulators. And it wouldn't be a bad idea to put Fantasy Regulators and then, like, football in the subject line, just so I don't mix it up with the baseball ones,

but the email address, fantasy football at cbsi.com. Two more notes, Darius Slay and Damon Harrison, perhaps the two most important players on the Lions defense. They will report for the start of camp and Washington cut linebacker, Mason Foster. This is,

this is interesting. According to the NFL network, Steve Weiss, people he's spoken to in Los Angeles, including Todd Gurley himself, say they do not see a dip in his production. Hmm. Look, as the Gurley guy, nice. Okay, as the Gurley fan on this show, like the biggest one, that means nothing. Nothing to me. Absolutely nothing.

Unless it's McVay. McVay already said he's good to go. It's just, a lot of this stuff is just talk right now. Coach speak, right? A hundred percent. A hundred percent. But, again, if you're... We've really gotten nothing from

our NFL insiders saying that Gurley is in trouble. Yeah. Unless I'm missing something. No, and we're going to talk about Gurley. And everything from the Rams has been, he's going to be fine, he's fine, he's going to be okay, he's fine, he's fine, he's fine.

Like, we're going based off the owner saying something to our John Breach. Right? I don't know who said it, but right. John Breach said it has an arthritic situation in his knee, but that's not something that could be debilitated. And then Draynor said something similar about how he doesn't expect there to be a drop-off. I mean, it could just be something that's completely overblown.

I mean, we talked about it yesterday, I know, but it's something to really put in the back of your mind. Oh, the front of your mind. So his ADP is going to be first in the absurd-o-meter. I'm going to tell you the ADP. You're going to tell me how absurd it is on a scale of 0 to 10. That's coming up right after this quick break on Fantasy Football today. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM,

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of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer your game time tastes like miller time learn more at millerlight.ca must be legal drinking age half ppr leagues over the last month on fantasyfootballcalculator.com todd girley is the 15th overall player off the board so the absurdometer you're going to tell me 0-10. 0, that is a completely reasonable pick, not even a little bit absurd.

10, it is a completely absurd pick. People are crazy for taking Todd Gurley 15th overall. I have not seen Todd Gurley go this early in our mock drafts in a long time. So 0-10, guys, on the absurd-o-meter. I'll give it a 5, because I think some people believe that Todd girley is going to be just fine and there's other people that are willing to safeguard a todd girley pick in round two um in early middle round two like 15th overall would

be actually that's early round two they're willing to go round six or round seven with daryl henderson to lock up that ramsfield, which honestly is not a bad idea based on the track record of Sean McVay and his clever play calling and what he can do for running backs. So I'm going to give it a five. I'm not ready to draft him at 15th overall, but I get why people do draft him there. Jamie, zero to 10? Two.

I mean, I think I have him ranked 19th. Do you? Because that's interesting. How recent is that, that he's 19th? I have felt like you and almost everybody else that we draft with, internally really, passes up Gurley until early in the third round, which

would be 26th or so. I'm sorry. I have him 23rd in non-PPR. I think he's probably the same. I don't know. I've been moving those guys around quite a bit. So 23 in non-PPR and 23, both. Okay, so now you want

to recalibrate? You still think it's a two on the absurdometer? No, I don't have a problem with it. Again, I think he's the type of guy that is not, if you're taking him around two, I don't think he's going to crush your team. And if you're in the camp of what you're saying, Adam, is that he's going to be fine, which again is starting to trend a little bit more in that direction,

then you're getting a guy that's going to win your league. Okay, I'm not exactly sure he's going to be fine. You're hoping. I felt there was a little bit too much of an overreaction. 15 does feel a little early to me. I don't know which running... I can't sit here and say, oh, Dalvin Cook's much safer. I can't say Nick Chubb and Damian Williams are much safer than Todd Gurley.

And just to put it in perspective, on a per-game basis, in 2017, he was 4.1 more fantasy points better per game than any other running back in non-PPR, 2.7 more in PPR. In 2018, he averaged 3.5 more fantasy points per game in non-PPR than any other running back and 2.5 more in PPR. So he's just so much better when he's at his best. But I don't think you guys are overreacting really that much. Just a little bit. But don't start questioning yourself because you have every right to be nervous about Todd Gurley. I mean, he's already torn his ACL and now he's got this arthritic condition.

And he was terrible at the end of last year. And they drafted a running back, the third running back off the board in the NFL draft, it's funny, he was terrible in the final two games, the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl. In the first playoff game

against the Cowboys, he ran for 100 yards, scored a touchdown. He had a lot of open space in that game. Yeah. Totally fine. Yep. Yeah.

And that was the first game after the injury. Yeah. So, it was also after a bye, right? It was also after a bye, for what Huh? It was also after a bye, for what it's worth.

It was, but still, it was a Super Bowl. No, it was after missing three straight weeks, because he missed... He missed four weeks of playing. Two games, bye week, or three games, three weeks of playing. Right.

Two weeks, two games, and then a bye week, and then that big game against the Cowboys, yeah. It was, I mean, and Anderson also had a big game. Yes. Okay.

Moving on. Next up on the Absurd-O-Meter. How absurd is it to take Damian Williams' 20th overall in half PPR? Zero. Four. Three. Okay. 20th, Dave.

I know you've always been the high guy on Damian Williams. Is that too rich for your blood? Maybe a little bit. I'm going to take a tight end. I'm going to take Kittler-Earts ahead of Damon Williams there. So if one of those tight ends is there, I'm going to go in that direction. But he's just at the door of a huge opportunity. He's really good as a pass catcher.

He's really good as an edge runner. He's never had an opportunity like this before. And even last year, I think he only had one game with more than 15 carries but he's going to get a lot of catches he's in a great offense that box will never be stacked against him i i think he's going to be the one that they use most in short yardage and goal line situations he was last year that'll come down to how carlos hyde looks in camp but i i believe that damian willian Williams will be a good fantasy running back this year. Does it concern you that

in six seasons with Andy Reid as their head coach, only two Chiefs running backs have had more than 40 catches in a season? So that would be Jamal Charles had 70 in 2013 and Kareem Hunt had 53 catches in 2017. What would Hunt have had in

2018 had he not gotten kicked off the team? Not many, actually. It was a little surprising. His catches were low last year. They were down. I can tell you he had 26 catches in 11 games.

So he wouldn't have gotten to 40 based on that pace. You said Charles and who else? Westbrook? No, Hunt's rookie year. 53 catches. Read with the Chiefs. And those are both Alex Smith. Those are both Alex Smith.

Mahomes is clearly going to be the type of guy that's going to try and look down the field as opposed to the dump off more so than Smith was. Look, if you're buying Damian Williams, it's not so much you're buying Williams, you're buying injury. But off the top of my head, without knowing that stat, I would think if Damian Williams is the Chiefs' starting running back, I would just think, eh, 60 catches.

But maybe I'm thinking too high. I look at Damian Williams and obviously I was the anti-Williams guy, and again, this is more, not more, this is all Andy Reid. I feel like Damian Williams is a better version of what Spencer Ware

was coming into the year where Ware was supposed to be at least the lead guy before Kareem Hunt. We all thought that Hunt was the more talented player. There's not a Kareem Hunt on the roster because Carlos Hyde is not that guy. Darwin Thompson is not that guy. He might be, but it's hard to project that.

Not yet. So I think Williams has the chance to, if he stays healthy, to keep the job all year, to be very good in that job, and to be a great fantasy option because of what Reed's track record is. He's been a head coach 20 times. 11 of those 20 years, he's had a running back finish as a top 10 PPR guy.

And that includes some of the best players at the position. If you want to go from borderline Hall of Fame guys like Brian Westbrook and Jamal Charles, what we've seen from Kareem Hunt, he was fantastic as a rookie. You have one year of Deuce Daly doing it. If you want to talk about a guy that wasn't exactly very good in terms of comparing him to these other guys, he was obviously good as a player. And Williams, you take his numbers from what he did in those six games,

over 16 games is amazing, factoring the playoffs. But it's just a matter of he does not profile as a great player. He's in a great situation. And so we could see, because there really was no competition when he took over for Hunt last year, you could see a situation where Hyde takes some work, Thompson takes some work. But if he does solidify himself in this position,

20 is not a leap to get that type of player. And the Chiefs are ready to give him that opportunity to solidify himself as their starter. They've been talking that way all offseason long. And Adam, would you say 24 catches in five games is good? Yeah, he was on pace. That's what he had the last five games with Mahomes. 28 targets, 24 catches, 210 yards,

and he had three touchdowns through the air. Five games? Because I had because he played six games as, you know, getting a lot of work. Uh-huh. That's just specifically the last five. He had more carries in those last five games. He was on pace for 64 catches based on his last six games, including the postseason.

So he would have, you know, broken that mark. All right, next up. You have to wonder what Hardman's role is going to be, too. Next up, same team. Patrick Mahomes, 35th overall. Mahomes scored 68.5 more fantasy points

than any other quarterback and four point per passing touchdown leagues and six point per passing touchdown leagues. Ninety-four more fantasy points than any other quarterback. 35th overall.

Absurdometer, Jamie. Zero. I'm going to say five. It's like three. When you take Mahomes, you better be sure you're not passing up anybody else that you would look at and say, there's somebody who can start for me at running back, receiver, or tight end and give me solid production over the course of the season. I'm looking at our rankings right now and our top 200 PPR. I have him 43.

Dave has him... Lower than that. 54. And Heath has him 41. Anything in the third round to me is perfectly acceptable for Patrick Mahomes. Yeah. Unless it's a 2QB league

and you want to take him in round one, I get it for a super flex. Just the history of guys who have epic, epic seasons and what they do the next year. Right. It's chasing them in round one that's the problem. I think if you're taking a swing in the third round, I have no problem with that at all.

But what if he finishes as the number five fantasy quarterback? If he finishes in the third round, I think that would qualify as a disappointment. If he finishes as a number five guy and it's a complete downturn for the position, then I think you had a bad draft. If he finishes as the fifth guy and we see the year that you're expecting for luck, the year that Heath is expecting for Watson,

what I think Aaron Rodgers could do and all those guys are competing for the number one spot, then it's a different conversation. But clearly you're drafting him to be the number one guy again. Yeah, I just think since you can make the case that Rodgers, Luck, Watson, I really don't see Mayfield,

but those other three guys beating him. No, but you could see Cam, you could see Ryan. I could see Cam. I could see Ryan, but I think the other three are really in the discussion with Mahomes. Yeah, I mean, if the Falcons are going to run the ball again, it's not going to be Ryan to the same level that we've seen, but he's going to be in that conversation. But the other three, Rodgers, Luck, and Watson,

those are the three that are the easiest cases to make as QB1 with Mahomes. If you don't really see that much separation, then I think 35 is too early for Mahomes. If you do see a lot of separation, I'm not going to fault you for that. Just know that Peyton Manning, Mahomes scored the most fantasy points since Peyton Manning in 2013. 2014, Manning had another amazing season, and he was QB4. But he was also older.

You know what? Who's the best comparison? Who's the best comparison then? I think I got it. To Mahomes? Yeah, to what Mahomes just did. I wonder, is it Marino? Marino.

Yeah. So I went back and I looked at what Marino did in 1984. But just comparing it to himself, Dan Marino never had a better year than what he did in 1983. His second year in the league league he set at the time 84 1984 right he was he came in in 83 1984 just about 5100 yards 48 touchdowns 17 interceptions a passer rating today's nfl that's a 7000 yards incredible 108.9 passer rating which was like unbelievable back then his second highest passer rating actually came in 1986. It was 92.5.

Okay, excluding his rookie year, he didn't throw that much, and he actually did have a very good passer rating. But 92.5 was basically his second best passer rating behind 108.9. So in 1984, he has the amazing year. In 1985, his fantasy points, I calculated his fantasy points based on six-point-per-passing touchdowns. 83 was 457 fantasy points. Sorry, 84, 457.

85, 303. And he had an amazing year. He led the league in passing, but he went down to 303. So he bounced back in 86 with 408 fantasy points, which was incredible. And he led the NFL in passing again, but that's 408 fantasy points compared to, at his peak, 457. So there is just no way in my mind Patrick Mahomes is producing like he did last year. It's just a matter of does his regression catch up to the league? Yeah.

All right. So next up. I mean, look, Brees is the only quarterback in NFL history to have back-to-back 5,000-yard seasons. I think it wouldn't be a surprise if Mahomes does this year. All right. So I don't know this, so I just want to look it up. After his first one, Drew Brees, how much did his touchdown –

how far did his touchdowns drop? I don't know. All right, let me look that up. Next up is Tyler Boyd, 67th overall. What is the absurd-o-meter on that? That is maybe a little late. Tyler Boyd, 67 overall. Round six.

Middle of round six. 12-team league. That's a little absurd. Let's give it round six. Middle of round six. 12-team league. That's a little absurd. Let's give it a six. I think he's a round five player, maybe even late round four in full PPR. Okay. So a six for Tyler Board Jamie?

Zero. Oh, really? You think that's okay? You think that's not too late? Yeah, round six is fine for him. So, you know, I've asked this question on Facebook. Join our Facebook group, Fantasy Football Today. Who are the hardest players for you to gauge this offseason?

And Boyd is a common answer. You know, it really came out of nowhere last year for him to be a top 20 wide receiver in only 14 games. Real quick, where do you guys stand on him? What are your thoughts? If Zach Taylor's offense in Cincinnati is going to be similar to the types of offenses he's worked with before, it should agree with Boyd very much. He's a tall slot receiver who proved last year that he could thrive in that role. He'll do it again, and he'll continue to get targets and all sorts of wonderful numbers because of it.

We've seen this offense with Cooper Cup, Mohamed Sanu. Those guys have stepped up and put up good to great numbers when they've been given the opportunity. And I just think Boyd's on track to be a nice, safe number two fantasy receiver. Okay, Drew Brees, just to go back he actually threw for 5 000 yards three straight years but 54 76 and then down to like below 5200 fantasy points went from 483 431 435 bum loser and then and then the year after, he only threw for 4,952 yards. He doesn't even try. Miles Sanders, 83rd. Jordan Howard, 85th.

Which one's more absurd? Miles Sanders, 83rd overall, or Jordan Howard, 85th? Neither. Neither. These are good, you think? Yeah. You're seeing Sanders fall for obvious reasons. Health. Now more competition.

And Howard has just kind of lived in that spot, which I think is fine. Yeah, I think I've been overdrafting Miles Sanders. I definitely have not been waiting until round seven. He's probably been more of a round six pick for me. So that's an alert. I could probably wait a little bit longer, or maybe I should.

All right, Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard going late in the seventh round, 83rd and 85th overall. Larry Fitzgerald, 99th overall. Is that absurd? Zero to ten on the absurdometer. Larry Fitzgerald, 99th. In half PPR? Yeah.

Three? I was going to say like one. I don't think people are going to be that excited to draft Larry Fitzgerald, but this is about the time when you would consider it. See, let me tell you who's going after him at wide receiver. Corey Davis, Kiki Cutie, Nikhil Harry, DK Metcalf, Marquez Valdez, Scantling, Cortland Sutton, Golden Tate, D.D. Westbrook, Curtis Samuel. Wow, where's D.Dee Westbrook, Curtis Samuel. 99th overall.

Wow, where's DeeDee Westbrook going? 117th. That's like an 8.5 on the ludicrous scale. Absurdometer. Too high or too low? Too early or too late for DeeDee? That's too late for DeeDee. Yeah.

I'm taking DeeDee. I'm taking most of those receivers over Larry Fitzgerald. Right. That's why it feels a little absurd to me, especially with Kyler Murray. We have no idea what to expect. 100%. And they have a revamped receiving core. You know what I mean?

It could be a situation where Fitzgerald's coming off the field at times. Yeah, we got to bump that up. Let's do the absurdometer again. I forgot what you said, but I'm asking you again. But at the same time, though, I don't have a problem taking a chance on them there. If the conversation is the number, the number's fine. The receivers that are going after them,

some of it is just crazy. Like Samuel should go ahead of him. QT should go ahead of him. Sutton should go ahead of him. Valdez-Ganling should go ahead of him. But I'd take him over Metcalf. I'd take him over Harry. I'd take him over...

I don't know what else you said. Valdez-Ganling? No, I'd take MBS over him. Sutton? I'd take Sutton over him. Golden Tate? That's questionable. He said Tate's the last one for me on the absurdometer.

114th overall. Half PPR. Really? I can't stand Golden Tate, and I think that that's pretty absurd. That's absurd. He should be hired. Yeah, it's round 10. It's too late.

Yeah. I feel like I would swap Tate and Fitzgerald's ADPs. Like, Tate feels more like 99th overall. Fitzgerald feels more like round 10. Sure, yep. Okay. Well, thank you for participating in the Absurd-O-Meter, everybody. Wait, Heath has a participation, too.

I can queue it up, you know. The master side. I'm not going to do the compilation but hold on let's let's get that heat set oh here it is ah there we go okay the facebook group is uh it's fun facebook uh fantasy football today is the group i posted a twitter facebook poll not a twitter poll, that asked about quarterback strategy. It was very strange. And then I got reported for spam in Facebook. I don't know what that was about.

It's so weird. It's like, it's in my group, man. I'm not spamming anybody. But the question was, how do you feel about drafting a second quarterback in a 12-team, one-quarterback league. And the options were only if I miss out on a stud QB. I often or always draft two QBs or never.

And that's actually not how I put that. That's how they're ranked in terms of votes. I've never won. No, never's in last of these three options. What? Yeah, people take two quarterbacks, and I do too, more often than you guys do. I would have voted for,

I often or always draft two QBs. You guys, though, would have voted for what? Never. No, wait, wait. That's not what I would have. I shouldn't say never, because I have. I didn't vote for that, and that's not what I would have.

I'm sorry. I would have and did vote for, only if I miss out on a stud quarterback do I draft a second that's how i draft how about you guys the only time i draft a second quarterback is if i feel like it's an absurd value in one of the drafts that we've done i got got Kyler Murray. I didn't need Kyler Murray. I got him in like round 10 or round 11. We did the pick-by-pick series for the site. I think I got Drew Brees in round 14.

I had Aaron Rodgers in round six or round seven, something like that, and Drew Brees was still sitting there. I don't know what I'm going to do with him, but I bet that if I trade Drew Brees in the season after I take him in round 14, I'll get a player in return who was drafted before round 14. That's if you trade for a quarterback, which we don't usually see happen in our analysis. No, I'm not expecting to get a big, big player in return for him.

Quarterback values are depressed. All right, so I'm looking at your team here. Who's the first guy you're cutting? Well, Josh Gordon might be the first guy you cut. But you're not cutting anybody you drafted barring injury in the first 10 rounds. Well, I mean, maybe Campbell. Who are some candidates? Or Darwin Thompson.

Huh? Oh, okay. I was asking for some cut candidates. So round 10 was Paris Campbell. If he doesn't do what Dave thinks he can do, that's a cut candidate. Darwin Thompson, if it's Damian Williams for the first seven or eight weeks and then Hyde's the one mixing in, that's a cut candidate. Gordon is somebody you can cut.

So that's always the question. Who are you going to end up releasing when you have to make a move, especially when it's a guy you're not playing? That's the problem with drafting two quarterbacks. It's good to have on draft day. It's good to have when you start your season, but you're going to end up giving somebody

a potential starter that they're not going to end up trading for. Well, yeah, I understand that. But in listener drafts, non-analyst drafts just be mindful people take second quarterbacks oh totally i get it i get it i mean you see it with the average opposition and i understand why you know it's exactly what they've said you know there's just great value when you see these guys late but it's it you know and and there's more ability to there's more likelihood of of those trades happening in those leagues than our leagues. Okay, so again, the poll question was,

in a 12-team, one-quarterback league, how do you feel about drafting two quarterbacks? The winning answer is only if I miss out on a stud QB. That's what I voted for. The second most responded or the second most answered option i don't know was i often or always draft two quarterbacks and then third was never so i've got a quarterback strategy and i relied on a little bit of help on this one one of our listeners before you get there though i just want to give you an example this is just one of the analyst drafts that we did this is the one we did with guys from other sites.

How many people do you think of the 12 owners took two quarterbacks? Five. Less. Two. Did I? No, I had Rodgers. Only if I missed out on a stud. You took Rodgers.

Evan Silva established the run, took Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. And Michael Fabiano from NFL.com took Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Yeah, so, yeah, that's not going to happen in most 12-team leagues, but fair enough. And that means the waiver wire is going to be loaded. So, oh, yeah, the strategy. Pairing a quarterback with Drew Brees. This is inspired by listener Mike Sanda,

who has been doing a lot of research and sending me some emails, and his emails are really long, so I don't really get a chance to read them on the air, but I wanted to use some of his work. So I took his idea a little bit. His idea was to pair Roethlisberger and Brees and use both of them at home. And hopefully when one of them has a road game, the other one is at home. It has worked out. If you had done that, you know, for the last few

years, you would have basically had a top five quarterback. Of course, you would have had to invest a lot more in them than you would this year, Rothlisberger and Brees. This year, it doesn't really work out. So I set out to find who is the quarterback that you should pair with Drew Brees. The idea being you start Drew Brees in every home game because last year he scored, he played seven home games and he scored 28 or more fantasy points and six point per passing touchdown leagues in five of those seven games. He averaged 321.6 yards per game with 21 passing touchdowns in seven home games uh full disclosure 2017 he didn't really do that great at home he played well but he just didn't throw that many touchdowns but for the most part that was the theme of the season yeah that was just right exactly

but for the most part we know what drew breeze is he is a monster at home if you think that's going to continue then all you need to do is find a quarterback for weeks 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 16. And it looks like the best options to me are... Or don't draft Drew Breeze. Or don't draft Drew Breeze, but this is really cool because... No, I'm just saying

if you don't want to deal with that head. Lamar Jackson. And let's just say you want to look at the first half of the schedule and then worry about the rest after. So that would be weeks 2, 3, 6, 7, and 9, okay? Lamar Jackson in 2, 3, 6, 7, and 9 faces Arizona at Kansas City, Cincinnati at Seattle, and New England. So Arizona at Kansas City and Cincinnati are his first three matchups when Breeze is on the road. Josh Allen might really be the answer to this question of who to pair with Breeze.

At the Giants, Cincinnati, a bye week, unfortunately. Miami, Washington at Miami. Those are his first five games when you aren't using Drew Breeze. I think Garoppolo's got some good matchups. Phillip Rivers has some good matchups. Tom Brady. Like Tom Brady at Miami in week two. The Jets at home in week three. The Giants. He always digs at Miami though. Not always, but it's sort of

a mixed bag. You are right. I went back and looked this morning just because I felt the same way. Like last year he threw for three touchdowns at a big game. At Miami, the Jets, the Giants on a Thursday at the Jets. Those are his first four games in the non-breeze weeks. And Kirk Cousins, like I didn't include Green Bay that much as a tough matchup, as an easy matchup because they have done so much to improve,

but they actually have to go out and improve. Because last year they improved. Last year they were terrible against the pass. But Kirk Cousins at Green Bay, Oakland, Philadelphia, at Detroit, at Kansas City through week nine. That's pretty good to pair with Drew Brees. What do you guys think about this potential strategy? I'm intrigued by it. But it's going to be contingent on getting Drew Brees in round 10 plus.

And it's going to be contingent on just how much bench space I have. And if I want to go with this strategy here i am in my draft room waiting for drew brees to fall to me and i see one of luck rogers watson it probably won't be watson r Mayfield. Okay. Fall to round seven. I'm going to, I'm aborting the Drew Brees mission to go and get one of those. Well, Brees' ADP on CBS Sports is round seven. Okay. So we're done with this then because if someone else is going to take Drew Brees in round seven, I'm not going to follow through. Yeah.

I guess you got to be in a league where Brees falls a little bit farther than that. But even if you, even if you like him in round seven, which is also where he is on Fantasy Football Calculator, 82nd overall. Even if you like Drew Brees there. I mean, he is so damn good at home. If you are one to take two quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jimmy Garoppolo to a lesser extent are the three that I would really focus on. All right, so let me ask you a question, Adam. So let's say you do this, and then you get the one bad game of Breeze on.

You said you had five of seven that were really good? Yes. And one of these guys do well in those weeks. You live with it. Don't you pivot? No, no, you live with it. Well, it's two bad games in a row. Then maybe you start thinking about it,

but I think you understand that no matter what you do, if you have two quarterbacks on your team, you are going to make wrong decisions at some point over 16 weeks. Sure. But, I mean, at what point, if it's the 2017 Drew Brees again, do you start to say, okay, this theory is not working? I don't really. How many games do you want to give it? I don't really plan for that. I'm just curious. No, I don't really... How many games do you want me to give it?

I don't really plan for that. I'm just curious. No, I don't think it's an easy question to answer because if he's the 2017 Drew Brees and he's a bust and you screwed up, but if you think he's the Drew Brees that's going to be really good at home and probably not worth using on the road,

then this is what you do, I think. What if he has an easy matchup on the road? Do you still... Yeah, one of those matchups is... One of those road games is at Tampa Bay. So I think you... You know, that's a good problem to have. When is he at Tampa Bay?

He's at Tampa Bay... 11. Week 11. So who has a tough matchup in that week of those guys? That would be... If you don't want to use Josh Allen that week. If you don't want to use Lamar Jackson against Houston, you start Breeze that week. Or the third door is to look and see who's on waivers.

You can drop Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Jimmy Garoppolo, and then you start the quarterback that you pick up off waivers. Yep. And you can drop Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen or Jimmy Garoppolo, and then you start the quarterback that you pick up off waivers. Who's to say Nick Foles isn't lighting things up by that

point in the year? You just grab him off waivers, because a lot of quarterbacks who are going to be good are going to be on waivers.

Yep, yep. Okay, well, I thought it was an interesting strategy, and I want to thank Mike Sanda for all of the work he puts in in his emails.

I will keep, I will keep that strategy in my back pocket. And if I find myself in a draft where by some, for some reason I'm without a quarterback and seven of them are off the board, I'm going to strongly consider this. I don't mind it. It's just not,

it wouldn't be my first choice. Okay. Uh, we're going to take a quick break and when we come back, we're going to finish our show with your emails. We have a mailbag show coming tomorrow, so just a few emails today. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com, and we're coming right back. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all

the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada. Insurance designed for life. Programming alert.

We are going to be doing a draft on the air on Thursday. A Flex 2QB League or a Super Flex League? Super Flex League. Super Flex League. Okay, great. First email today comes from Duncan from British Columbia. All right. He wants answers to these either ors.

T.Y. Hilton versus Stefan Diggs. PPR, by the way, with 100-yard receiving bonuses or rushing. Hilton by a nose. A.J. Green versus Keenan Allen. Green. Keenan Allen. Mark Ingram versus Kenyon Drake. Drake.

I have Drake higher. It's PPR. Yep. James White versus Tariq Cohen. White and PPR, Cohen and non-PPR. I'll take Cohen in both. And that is it. Thank you, Duncan.

Next question is from Scott from Boston. In the mock drafts I've done so far, I end up having to choose between Philip Lindsay or James White in the seventh or eighth round. They seem very close. Who is the better choice, in your opinion, in PPR, Philip Lindsay or James White? I don't think James White does what he did last year. And I think Phil Lindsay has a pretty good opportunity to get close to it. I think even if he's sharing with Royce Freeman, he can get close to 1,000 total yards. And I think he'll catch, I don't know, not as many passes as James White, but at least half as many. So I would lean toward him.

I'll take White and PPR, Lindsay and non-PPR. This is from Seth from the Capitol, where Abe Lincoln is best known for. Springfield, Illinois. Keeper question. PPR, keep one. McCaffrey in the second round, Tyreek Hill in the fourth, or George Kittle in the eighth? McCaffrey in the second, Kittle in the eighth. Tyreek Hill in the fourth or George Kittle in the eighth? McCaffrey in the second, Kittle in the eighth.

Tyreek in the fourth. Kittle in the eighth. Yeah. I think if it's for one year, it's got to be Kittle in the eighth. Okay. Let me find one more keeper question, and then we'll finish the show. Did you guys have a nice day today? Nice day at work?

We got our pictures taken. Oh, cool. Yep, so when you see us on your Roku and all your OTT devices, when you tune in to watch Fantasy Football today on CBS Sports HQ, you'll see pictures of the three of us. And you'll know that it was done on tuesday july 23rd 2019 i finished season one of stranger things oh what'd you think it's excellent it's so good isn't it it is so good and then you threw all three seasons yeah yeah it really

really enjoyable i'm gonna start season two tonight good and then i watched the prequel to stranger things the other night which is the goonies it's basically it's it's so funny like all the 80s references yeah and and season three is just full of 80s references it's very fun great music but it's it's the whole thing is like an homage to all these great 80s adventure movies plus ripping off the theme song to the x-files uh all right god all these keeper questions are so complicated just send like really easy keeper i'm done i'm done i can't i sure sure i should have done this before the show started but i this is just too complicated you know you should say to the emails gotta go that's right all right we got it we do have to go bye everybody thank you so much for listening we will come back tomorrow with a mailbag see i never know when you're ready

to end it so i'm just waiting for your cue and then then I'll sing the song. Oh, wait. What? I was typing with my friends. Oh, I was quoting the movie Brain Donors last night with my friends in a text, Dave. Yeah. And I was about to write my cue. Like, it goes, my cue. And I originally spelled Q-U-E-U-E.

And I was like, oh, I'm in fantasy football season. But I fixed it.