Fantasy Football Today - 07/26: QB Busts; Baldwin Breakdown; Round 6 ADP (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 26, 2018

QB Week continues with an email questioning Aaron Rodgers as the #1 QB in Fantasy (1:30). We'll also answer a question about the SEA backfield (4:30) before we review some NFL news and notes (8:31) including an encouraging item about Dalvin Cook ... Putting Doug Baldwin under a microscope (15:00) as we wonder about his upside ... Let's get a couple of QB busts! We're sure to disagree about Carson Wentz (20:35), and is Jared Goff (29:33) being drafted too early? We're also profiling an underrated NFC West WR (36:00), and reviewing Round 6 of ADP (39:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootball at cbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Ian. Thursday, July 26th. What's going on, everybody?

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today. Quarterback week continues. We've done sleepers and breakouts, so naturally we've got to do the busts today. And of course, if Heath is on... Oh, I didn't even get the Heath is on queued up. That's disappointing. Sorry about that. If Heath is on the show, that means we're talking about Carson Wentz. Right, Heath? Of course we're talking about Carson Wentz, the most obvious bust in fantasy football history. The Heath is on, everybody. And Heath, if you were going to dinner or wanted to do a draft party, where would you do it, my friend?

Oh, I would go to Buffalo Wild Wings, my friend. There you go. Yeah, start your fantasy football league right by booking your draft party at B-Dubs, Buffalo Wild Wings. You're going to get a free draft kit and enjoy a draft feast of boneless wings, three sides, three shareables, all at a special price. Only at Buffalo Wild Wings. Wings, beer, sports, at participating locations while supplies last. So we're going to get Jamie.

Dave's not in today, not on the show today, but Jamie will be on shortly. We'll get through the news and notes, read some emails before Jamie gets on, and then we'll get into Heath's bus, which is Carson Wentz, and Jamie's, which is Jared Goff, and it's all relative to average draft position. It's not like, hey, these guys are going to be bad. It's these guys are going too early, and I've got both CBS ADP and Fantasy Pros ADP to compare. Let's start with a quarterback email, though. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com, Heath. It's Brandon from Temple Terrace. Why does everyone in the industry have Aaron Rodgers as their QB1? No debate. Rodgers is not the Antonio Brown of quarterbacks. I want to hear someone discuss the reality that he could easily not finish his QB1, etc., etc. Hashtag A-Rod, not top three. Hashtag hot-Rod, not top three.

Hashtag hot take. Not top three. That is kind of a hot take. What do you think? Yeah, and the idea that he could easily not finish his QB1 is absolutely correct. In fact, if I had the option of ranking Aaron Rodgers the number one quarterback or ranking the field the number one quarterback, I'd probably take the field. Yeah, I agree. I think Rodgers has only been number one once.

But the question when you're ranking number one, who is the most likely quarterback to score the most fantasy points, and I think it's pretty clearly him. Like Russell Wilson could outperform him this year. He could have a phenomenal year in terms of rushing touchdowns. Brandon Marshall could come back and be as good as Jimmy Graham was last year. Things could all go his way. But I don't think that's as likely as Aaron Rodgers is just as good as he's been for most of his career. Yeah. When you look at the touchdown passes for Aaron Rodgers, he's not a huge yards guy. He's only had one season with more than 4,500

passing yards, which is much better than Russell Wilson, but of course Russell Wilson runs the ball. But you're talking 38 touchdowns almost every time Rodgers is healthy and right. The year that he didn't have Jordy Nelson, 2015, was a disappointing year. He finished as the number eight quarterback, but other than that, when he's been healthy and Jordy Nelson was healthy, and obviously he doesn't have Jordy Nelson. I'll get to that in a second. You're talking about a top three quarterback basically every year.

And at some point, number one. He was number one in 2016 with 453 fantasy points. Russell Wilson was number one last year with 409 fantasy points. So there's just so much upside with Rodgers. But, Heath, do you worry about that 2015 season, missing Jordy Nelson, didn't play all that well, finished as the number eight quarterback, and was a bust?

No, I don't. Because what happened, and I think we had an email about this on our last show, about Devontae Adams and how he got thrust into that role and he wasn't ready. I feel pretty confident Devontae Adams is ready because he did it last year without a good quarterback. So I think Adams' development as a wide receiver helps a lot. And I know there's been some talk about Jimmy Graham on this podcast that isn't very positive, and I understand the downside of Jimmy Graham.

I think he's going to help Rodgers a lot as well. Email of the day number two is from Pete from Seattle. Pete is a Seahawks fan who, like most people, ended up liking the Rashad penny pick. However, I also liked what I saw last year from Chris Carson, who did well despite a terrible offensive line, while others like Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls struggled mightily. Carson has bulked up this offseason, seems 100% recovered from the injury.

The offensive line should be better. Don't laugh. And this is a coaching staff that always preaches competition, no matter how much a free agent has been paid or how high a pick was spent on a player. While I like Rashad Penny, I think his draft spot is way too high at this point where there's a legit chance Carson could at least begin the year as a lead back and a chance he keeps it.

Thoughts? I agree with some of this email. The part about Carson bulking up, I don't ever get excited when a running back bulks up. I think that's usually not good. So that part I would not be excited about. I don't think they spent the draft capital that they spent on Rashad Penny to start the year with Chris Carson as a starting running back. Now, if Penny's just clearly not ready in training camp, that could happen.

I do agree that his draft spot is probably too high. I don't know exactly what his ADP is right now. I don't. But I don't know, and I'm working on a piece for next week about the upside and downside of kind of the other rookie running backs, non-Saquon Barkley rookie running backs. I don't believe that there is really a rookie running back in this class that has top 10 upside at the position.

So I think Penny has the best chance out of that group, except for maybe Royce Freeman, to end up getting three down work, and that will help. But I don't think you should draft him thinking he might be a top 10 running back. Penny is the 20th running back off the board in CBS.

21st if you look at Fantasy Pro's ADP. He is going right around the same time as Alex Collins, Darius Geis, and Jay Ajayi. Those four are basically going back to back to back to back. Rashad Penny, Darius Geis, Alex Collins, who I think is first in that group actually, and Jay Ajayi. How would you rank those four? Collins, Penny, Ajayi, and Geis? Yeah, Collins would definitely be first for me.

I do prefer Penny to Geis, and it's partially for the reason I just said when talking about the potential to be a three-down back. I don't think that potential exists for Geis without a Chris Thompson injury. And they've already talked about how they think Penny can work in all facets of the game. So I think he has a clear path to getting receptions.

And I do prefer him to Jay Ajayi. I think there's a better chance that he gets a larger share of the workload than Ajayi does. I've got Penny as my number 22 running back in PPR. It's quite a ways behind Alex Collins, though. Chris Carson had 49 carries last year. We didn't get much of a sample, but he looked fine. 208 yards on those 49 carries. Didn't score a rushing touchdown.

Did have one receiving touchdown. 4.2 yards per carry, and Carson is going in about the 12th round of a 12-team league. He's a very late pick if he gets picked at all. Do you see yourself drafting Chris Carson right now? I mean, things could obviously change. Reports come out that he's running with the ones or whatnot. Things will change. But what about right now with Carson?

This depends on what type of league you're talking about. I'll draft him at the end of best ball leagues or deeper drafts. In a standard CBS league where it's 14 or 15 rounds and you have to take a defense and a kicker, no. All right. So those are a couple of emails. We'll read a few more later. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. We're five days a week

now, which is exciting. And you can nominate us, if you like our show, on PodcastAwards.com. Please go to PodcastAwards.com. Fantasy Football today is we're trying to get nominated in sports and recreation and people's choice. So go ahead and vote for us. That would be awesome.

Definitely going to talk bus quarterbacks in a second. But let's do news and notes, Heath. Let's do news and notes. Julio Jones is not going to hold out. That's great. Yay. Oh, it's awesome. Fantastic.

Everything we worried about, don't worry about it anymore. There you go. Dalvin Cook will be full go for training camp According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press A lot of alliteration there Dalvin Cook is going to be full go for training camp Now Last Wednesday

When you did the show And I wasn't on We had that email about taking Dalvin Cook Fifth overall And Jamie said it was too high And I I didn't get a chance to talk about this fifth overall and Jamie said it was too high and I you know I didn't get a chance to talk about this but I wanted to take him fourth overall

in a non PPR league we did a draft two weeks ago or something a week or two ago and I didn't but I love Dalvin Cook he's full go for training camp why shouldn't we be pumped up about him if he had played that full season out I think he'd be I have total faith in his ability for training camp. Why shouldn't we be pumped up about him if he had played that full season out?

I think he'd be... I have total faith in his ability, so I think he would be in the discussion as a top five pick, in my opinion. That's total hypothetical. I don't know. But I know you have him as a breakout, so this is great that he's reportedly going to be full go. You know how much I agree disagreeing

with your takes, right? How much you like disagreeing with my takes. I love disagreeing with your takes right how much you like disagree with my takes i love yeah oh yeah oh yeah disagreeing with your takes i i'm with you and i i won't take dalvin cook fourth or fifth overall i'm not going to take him over girly elliot bell johnson well that's that's the one right there is johnson so like in ppr i'm not going to take him because you know you can you've got, you've got Brown and Hopkins in the discussion and whatnot. But in standard, in non-PPR, I'm definitely not

taking him for one through three. But I know how you feel about David Johnson, right? You're worried about the offense. I am. I think there's a little bit of concern that he loses a touchdown or two or four to Latavius Murray.

Yeah, sure. And I don't know exactly how many catches to expect from him, but he's very good in the passing game. I've got him projected for 44 right now. So I think when you get to that Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara range, in non-PPR, Cook by the end of training camp may be my favorite. And I guess that right now I can't justify taking Cook over Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing last year. He was awesome.

He's not coming off a torn ACL. He never fumbles. He's going to be in a last year. He was awesome. He's not coming off torn ACL. He never fumbles. He's going to be in a good offense. They did lose their offense coordinator, but they didn't lose Andy Reid. So new offense for the Vikings. I guess I can't really argue about putting Hunt ahead of Cook, but I think Cook's going to be a riser. He's going, you know, we usually see him go, what, 12, 13? Yeah, yeah, I think that's probably about right. Later than that sometimes. We've seen him fall into the middle of the second round in a PPR draft,

and I just love that. If I get him in the second round, I'm thrilled. Now, training camps are opening for a lot of teams, so if you see a player on the pup list, it's not necessarily a huge deal. They can come off any time. Alshon Jeffrey had the shoulder surgery see a player on the pup list, it's not necessarily a huge deal. They can come off anytime. Alshon Jeffrey had the shoulder surgery. He's on the pup list. Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Cutter expects to start Ryan Fitzpatrick in week one.

Green Bay right tackle Brian Bulaga is expected to be ready for week one after tearing his ACL last November. That's very good news for the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Tyler Eifert is on the pup list. Now again, he could come off any time. It might not be a huge deal. We know his injury history.

Do you think Tyler Eifert is a sleeper tight end right now? I suppose he is because we know he has touchdown upside when he's on the field. But when I projected the Bengals offense, I projected it with Tyler Croft. I've got Tyler Croft ranked ahead of Tyler Eifert. I don't have any expect. I'm not sure he's going to play. But Tyler Croft, I'm pretty sure, was like the number 12 tight end in non-PPR last year.

That's amazing. Yeah, he was. He might have even been higher than that. Tyler Croft had 404 yards, but he had seven touchdowns. So top 12 tight end in non-PPR. Not in PPR because he didn't catch that many balls. But that's what Eifert could be stepping into if he gets healthy. Well, and he was a top 12 tight end.

And through three weeks of the season, he had four catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns. Croft? Yes. He was 11th in non-PPR last year. Let's see. Aaron Donald, Earl Thomas, Khalil Mack, they're all holding out. Could be extensive holdouts for Donald and Earl Thomas. Heath, Jarvis Landry says that the Browns can win the Super Bowl if everybody plays up to their potential.

Sure. Why wouldn't he say that? You agree with him? I didn't say that. I just think it's perfectly acceptable for Jarvis Landry to say that. I like the part where he said, if we don't score 40 on you, you're lucky or something like that. I love that enthusiasm.

I like that too. Buy or sell, the Browns will make the playoffs. What the heck? I'll buy. Oh, wow. make the playoffs what the heck i'll buy oh wow i don't six and a half would be my over under for them what do you think i'm gonna take me under i'm trying to think wild card teams and it's nobody in the east it's maybe the chiefs or chargers whoever doesn't win that division oh yeah and then who in the North?

Oh, the North is... I don't think the North is very good. So Steelers are going to run away with that division. Okay. But the South could be very good. The South could be very good. But you're predicting that Jacksonville is going to fall on their face this year. I said they won't make the playoffs.

I'm not sure they're going to fall on their face. Are we going to predict the Titans to make the playoffs? They might. I mean, I think the Titans, Colts, Texans, Jaguars, I think that division is wide open. They're all going to beat up on each other. They could. They could. Get on board.

All right. Browns it is. Let's see what the over-under on their win totals is. What do you think it is? According to Odds Shark. I'm going to guess that it's moved up since it was originally released and I will say that it's at 7.

What did I say? 5.5? Or did I say 6.5? You said 6.5. Yeah, it's 5.5. Oh, over over over. Free money. Let's do a Sportsline podcast. Okay, perfect. And Saints wide receiver Cameron Meredith is participating in team drills. We've been getting the microscope out.

We've been scientists lately. We're putting a lot of players under the microscope. Today we're putting Doug Baldwin under the microscope. Heath, I think Doug Baldwin is a very, very boring yet interesting player at the same time. Does that make any sense? I think that makes perfect sense. I don't think he's boring. I think it's fascinating to watch him run routes.

I think he says interesting things sometimes. There's nothing boring about Doug Phillips. That I agree with. He is fun to watch. But in terms of fantasy, he's kind of predictable. Predictable can be a little bit boring. It can also be really exciting. In fact, if you listen to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast,

we were talking about Chris Davis of the A's. He's basically the most predictable player in fantasy. He's also pretty exciting because you know what you're getting every year. Do you feel that way about Baldwin? Do you think he's predictable? Yeah, I feel pretty confident he's going to be somewhere between wide receiver 9 and wide receiver 15. He has been top 12 each of the last three years. He's been seventh. He's been 10th. He's been 12th. Last year he was 12th, but had a down year, 991 yards and eight touchdowns on 75 catches. How can he get better? How can Doug Baldwin surprise us? Because he's going to go around the same time as T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, probably go after Evans, but Tyreek Hill, explosive players.

Some of them have big-time upside. Tell me if Doug Baldwin has that upside. Well, he has that upside because let's just say that Brandon Marshall doesn't make the team. And Tyler Lockett, once again, can't really stay healthy. And we see Doug Baldwin just get a ton of targets. The most he's ever had is 125 in a season. We saw Russell Wilson's pass attempts go up, but his targets actually went down a little bit last year.

So I think the way he can get better is by getting more opportunity. And there was kind of a weird thing last year. 2015, 2016, he had a 75% catch rate both years. Dropped down to 64.7% last year. Did the yards per catch go up? Probably not. No. I mean, they went up from 2016. He was at 12 yards per catch in 2016, 13.2 last year, but he's at 13.4 for his career. So not noticeably. And then the other thing that can happen, and we saw it happen in 2015, he can just have an absurd touchdown year. He scored 14 touchdowns that year.

Jimmy Graham is gone. He was a red zone monster for that team, so we could see his touchdowns go up. Yeah, exactly. Graham led the NFL in red zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line last year. Seattle also lost Paul Richardson to the Redskins, and between Graham and Richardson, inside the 10-yard line last year. Seattle also lost Paul Richardson to the Redskins. And between Graham and Richardson, those are the second and third most targeted players on the team last year.

The best stretch of Doug Baldwin's career, Heath just mentioned it, it was 2015, it was the last eight games of the year. He scored 14 touchdowns that year. He scored 12 of those touchdowns in the last eight games. He went berserk, 724 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. Jimmy Graham was out for five of those eight games. Now, when Jimmy Graham was healthy in that stretch, Baldwin was still awesome, so maybe it's just a coincidence. But, yeah, there's opportunity there.

The Seahawks have been about middle of the pack each of the last two years in pass attempts. Their defense could be a liability this year, Heath. Oh, I think it could be bad. In fact, so bad that I've got a quarterback streaming article coming out tomorrow, and I don't think it's a terrible idea to stream Case Keenum week one against them. So Baldwin, you have ahead of Hill and Evans. Why do you have him ahead of Mike Evans?

We've talked about this with Mike Evans a lot. Targets. Well, and I don't really have him projected. I have him projected for more targets than Doug Baldwin. 19 more targets than Doug Baldwin. But Baldwin I have for 10 more catches. And that's just a reflection of what their catch rates have been over their careers.

$100 budget, how much on Doug Baldwin? I didn't have that page up. I'm sorry. One thing I do not have, like we're getting to the point in the season where I have a lot of things just in my head. One thing I never throughout the preseason get in my head are auction values, and it's probably because we don't talk about them. It's probably a bad job on our part.

Oh, yeah. We're going to try. I've got to do it more. I've got to do it more. $24 is what I have them for. Ooh. $24. All right.

All right. So who would you take? Because it's not just necessarily the wide receivers. Do you take a running back there, Doug Baldwin or Jarek McKinnon? I'll take Baldwin. Doug Baldwin or Jordan Howard? I'll take Baldwin. Gronkowski or Baldwin?

I'll take Gronk. That is Doug Baldwin under the microscope. Good stuff. Thank you, Heath. And Baldwin is going in the 30s. That is Doug Baldwin under the microscope. Good stuff. Thank you, Heath. And Baldwin is going in the 30s. He's going about 31st overall. But I usually see him go a little bit earlier than that in our drafts, closer to the beginning of round three rather than the middle of round three.

But, yeah, that's Doug Baldwin. All right, so I've just learned. Bad news, Heath. Sad news. You're going to have to really bring it now because no Dave, Jamie, also not going to be able to join us on today's show. Two-man show. I believe in us.

We can do this. Not so much? Well, it wasn't a question. Oh, okay. Let's get into quarterback busts. Carson Wentz, the number four quarterback last year, the breakout, the star of the NFL, Super Bowl champion, Carson Wentz. He's a bust for Heath Cummings. Yeah, and I don't know where you want to start on this one,

but I'm just going to gloss over all the injury stuff. Let's just assume that Carson Wentz, who's not on the pup list, yay, I don't want him to be hurt, is playing 16 games this year. I still don't think he should be drafted as a top five quarterback. And that's not because I think he's bad. It's just that what made him great last year was not sustainable. And I don't think there's really a lot of argument that it was.

He had a 7.5% touchdown rate. For reference, Aaron Rodgers has a 6.4% rate for his career. We just talked about how the one thing where Aaron Rodgers stands out above everyone else is his touchdown rate. Tom Brady has a 5.5% rate, and that's very, very good. Matt Ryan, for example, is on the lower end. He's at 4.6%. Those numbers may not mean anything to you, but an easy way to look at it, if he had Tom Brady's career touchdown rate last year, which I think is still optimistic, unless we've just

decided that Carson Wentz is as good as Tom Brady. Yeah, I have, yeah. He would have had 24 touchdown passes last year. In 13 games. In 13 games. So he would have been on pace for what, almost right about 30 uh yeah 24 he averages about 250 yards per game which is not bad but it's certainly not

elite quarterback yardage i don don't think anyone would argue. He was on pace for right around 4,000 yards, I think, last year. He averaged 7.5 yards per attempt, Carson Wentz. That was 13th among quarterbacks with 120 or more pass attempts. So no, it wasn't great. I'm not quite as certain that the 7.5, which I think is good. You said it was 13th. That's notth. That's

not bad. It's just fine. I'm not quite as willing as everyone else to just throw his rookie year away. Why? Because it's data. I don't think it's worthless. I'm not saying that you should

just say Carson Wentz is the exact average of what he's done so far, because if that was the case, he just wouldn't be a very good quarterback. I think he'll be closer to what he was last year, but I think you certainly have to accept the possibility that it's going to be less than 7.5 yards per attempt because he has a full season at 6.2. All right, so Carson Wentz did some unsustainable stuff last year. Cannot argue that.

Can't argue this. I think he's a great player. He's mobile, and that is huge to me. The injury is really important. What? Is he now? That's the question. That, to me, is the X factor with Carson Wentz. He's got to be able to get some yards with his legs,

and not just be able to pick up a few hundred rushing yards, but be able to extend the play, make plays with his legs on passing plays. You know what I mean. Get out of the pocket, be explosive, be dynamic. That's going to help him. It's a big weapon for him. If he's not 100%, and I completely agree with you, I don't want Carson Wentz. Right now, he is the fifth quarterback off the board in CBS leagues.

In fantasy pros, he's also fifth, and he's 59th. The ADP is actually pretty similar. 54th on CBS overall, 59th on Fantasy Pros, which is an average of a bunch of different websites. So yeah, I mean, QB5 does feel a little early, but everybody, I think, going after him, Heath, to me, feels questionable. I know how good the offense is because I saw what Nick Foles did. So even if you don't think that Carson Wentz is that great, maybe you think he's a product of the offense. I don't think that's a knock against Carson Wentz. I think the offense is, in terms of his fantasy value, completely in his favor. So yeah, look, the top four quarterbacks are Rodgers, Brady, Watson, Wilson, then Wentz on CBS Sports.

After that, Drew Brees. Is he going to throw enough? Let's go back to that. All right. Because you agree that Drew Brees is still a very good quarterback, right? That he was very good last year. Incredible. He just didn't throw enough.

I would take Brees over Wentz, I think. He had 536 pass attempts last year. Wentz was on pace for 541. Yeah, interesting. So what was Breeze's touchdown rate? Last year, and he is on the opposite end of the spectrum because it was 4.3 last year. It's 5.3 for his career

and had been over 5 every year since 2007. Yeah. Where do you expect it to be this year? Much higher than last year. And that's why Breeze going 12 picks later than Carson Wentz should jump out at you. You want a quarterback in that range? Wait around. Take Drew Breeze.

But I still think, like, after that, Cam Newton, Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, can we say confidently that these guys are better than Carson Wentz? I feel pretty confident once I see Andrew Luck throwing. If he plays in the first preseason game, the fact that they're putting him on the field in the first preseason game and throws the ball like old Andrew Luck, then yes, you should draft Andrew Luck before Carson Wentz. I've got him ranked ahead of him right now.

A hundred percent. Maybe it's not so much... Maybe it's more like... I feel like you're coming around. No, I am. I am coming around a little bit. Jamie released his sleepers, breakouts, and busts this week for quarterback, and Carson Wentz was one of his busts. So we've got one convert already.

I just don't know that he should be at the front of the pack. Like, I'm not sure that the guys behind him are better than Carson Wentz, except I would take Breeze over him. But it's almost like they're all so similar to me. Ben Roethlisberger has tremendous upside. Obviously, Andrew Luck does as well. So why reach four rounds earlier for Carson Wentz? Exactly. I think, and this will not be popular with Eagles fans because it's in the same state, but I think Ben Roethlisberger, we should still say, is better than Carson Wentz.

He has more pass volume than Carson Wentz. Better as a quarterback or better as a fantasy quarterback? Both There's just this weird thing where Roethlisberger is so bad on the road It's just so strange Didn't that really kind of change a little bit last year though? I don't think so I can look into that now

I am looking into that right now The difference between you and me And how we feel about Carson Wentz Is that I think Carson Wentz is a superstar and you don't i'm not willing to rule out the possibility that carson wentz could be a superstar i'm not willing to accept that as definitive after 16 bad games and 13 good games and the good games were not better than average ben roethlisberger. On a per-game basis over the last three years, I think if we went back and looked and just took out the weird touchdown numbers, you would see that Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Wentz have been,

I would guess Roethlisberger's been better on a per-game basis. And one of the knocks against Ben Roethlisberger is, yeah, but he always seems to miss a couple games, or he's old and he's at injury risk. Well, who is more likely to miss games due to injury this year, Carson Wentz or Ben Roethlisberger? Ben Roethlisberger. What?

Come on. Because the guy tore his ACL, I don't think that makes him more susceptible to injury. Well, he's certainly more likely to miss week one. Yes, he is. But if he's not on the pup list and he's trending in the right direction, you're right. But once they're on the field, Roethlisberger, now a lot of people think he's kind of a drama queen and he's trending in the right direction you're right but once they're on the

field roethlisberger now a lot of people think he's kind of a drama queen and he exaggerates it roethlisberger gets banged up a lot he really does he doesn't miss that many games he gets banged up a lot because he takes so many hits you know roethlisberger he throws he he waits in the pocket he sits there he's not afraid to take hits well weren't you just talking about how carson went has to be able to extend plays with his legs yeah Yeah, I need to see how healthy he is. He has to play alive longer. Doing that exposes you to more hits. Okay, but he can get away from guys.

Ben Roethlisberger is a statue. Yeah. It'll be interesting. I mean, he may be just as athletic as he was right before he was injured as soon as he comes back. Roethlisberger, I guess I shouldn't call him a statue. He's not exactly mobile, but he does have this pretty cool ability to get away from would-be sackers. I do have the home road splits from last year.

Last year his rating at home was 94.8. His rating on the road was 91.7. His yards per attempt was actually higher on the road, but the touchdowns were still higher at home. And the fantasy points were higher at home. Well, because of the touchdowns. Yeah, whatever it is. I mean, Roethlisberger just has bigger games at home.

Jamie's bust was Jared Goff. Let's see. Jared Goff is going pretty late. He's going 114th overall, so like round 10 on CBS, and he's round 9 or 10 on Fantasy Pros. And Goff is the 13th quarterback off the board on Fantasy Pros. He's not quite that high on CBS. Do you think Jared Goff is a bust? I don't know that I would use that word just because he is being drafted pretty late, but where is he in terms of quarterback?

13th on fantasy pros and i'm trying to count on cbs looks like something like 15th yeah i have him projected as the 18th best quarterback this year but he's 11 points behind 12th so it's not there's not like in that group it's pretty much personal preference i think the biggest problem for Jared Goff, if things go like they did last year, is that his volume was almost nonexistent. 477 attempts in 15 games. He's going to have to, kind of like Wentz, he's going to have to have a high touchdown rate

and a high yards per attempt. He did last year. I think he's fine as a low-end quarterback. Like I said, in that range, it's just personal preference. The Rams averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game. That was the ninth fewest in the NFL. Not a good thing for Jared Goff. When he did throw, the last four times Goff threw more than 31 times in the regular season,

he was over 300 yards three of those four times. He was over 350 yards two of those four times. He was over 350 yards two of those four times. So turn them loose. Just, you know, why would they? They just gave Todd Gurley a lot of money. And their defense got even better. I don't understand Mitch Trubisky getting drafted ahead of Jared Goff, though. No, no, not at all.

I like Trubisky fine as a two-quarterback breakout candidate, I guess. I don't know, though, that he has much of a chance to get in the top 12. Yeah, Goff is 16th on CBS. Trubisky is 15th. On Fantasy Pros, Trubisky is 22nd. So I guess we just like him. Maybe we have high projections for Trubisky on CBS Sports, but I found that interesting. Yeah, and there's a possibility that that has more to do with keeper leagues.

I know we've tried to get the Dynasty Leagues out of our ADP. I wonder with – there have not been that many leagues drafted on CBS yet at this point, so it could just be there's some type of wonky league in there that's throwing it off. And $100 budget, how much for Carson Wentz? How much for Jared Goff? How much for Drew Brees? Yeah, let's do that. Brees, Wentz, Goff. $100 budget. You are not

going to like these numbers at all. I'm going to guess. I'm going to guess. Eight for Brees, four for Wentz, two for Goff. Seven for Brees. So you were really close. What did you say for Goff? Two.

I've got him for one, so you were very close on that one. I also have Carson Wentz for one. No, $1? This is what happens, though. This is what happens. And we had this happen, I think it was two years ago in our staff auction league. We had to fudge the results because we got to the end of the draft, and no one had nominated Andrew Luck.

Uh-huh. When was this? For a dollar. This was two years ago? Two or maybe it was three. It was definitely not last year. But it was a year when he was like one of our top six quarterbacks. Uh-huh.

But what happens in auctions, in my experience and in most of ours, when you're telling people wait on quarterback, wait on quarterback, wait on quarterback, there's no reason when there are 18 starting quarterbacks you feel comfortable with to go spend $6 on the number 12 quarterback. No, but are you failing to recognize a ceiling for Carson Wentz? Can I just throw that out there? We go back to Wentz. Like $1 for Carson Wentz? The guy was going to win MVP last year. I'm not kidding Carson Wentz. Can I just throw that out there? We go back to Wentz. Like $1 for Carson Wentz?

The guy was going to win MVP last year. I know, but $1? I don't know. Okay. All right. I'm basically telling you, do not spend your money on Carson Wentz in drafts. I'll spend whatever I want. I only have nine quarterbacks at more than $2.

I will spend money at Buffalo Wild Wings. And B-Dubs understands being a fantasy football league manager, that's a tough job. It's important to get a good first impression. That all starts with the draft. And if you want your league to love you, book your draft party at B-Dubs. Free draft kit. You'll get a special draft feast of boneless wings, three sides, three shareables for a special price to feed your league. So come in and get to drafting up some league manager love at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Wings, beer, sports at participating locations while supplies last. We don't have that much time left today, but we still do have some segments to get to. Let's do the fantasy profile. It is, of course, presented by Buffalo Wild Wings. We're profiling an underrated fantasy football player who listeners should get to know as they could be the key to winning your season. Now, here's the deal, Heath. I asked Jamie for this Buffalo Wild Wings fantasy profile. He gave me Pierre Garçon. You have the option to use Pierre Garçon and talk about him or provide

me with another fantasy profile. And I would like to add that I did IM you about this earlier, and you completely ignored me. So what up with that? I was probably really busy. I have a trip planned for next week. I won't be on the podcast at all. I'm going to try to visit 15 breweries in one week. But I'm still writing all the same amount of content for running back week,

so I'm writing all of my quarterback and running back content this week. Oh, wow. That was my fault. And I kind of do not like that little scoff sound you just made at my brewery plans. 15 breweries? I was expecting applause. You're not going to get applause from me on that. Yeah.

It's what? It's just – it's like going to a bunch of different restaurants and trying out their appetizers. Do you have to spit the beer out so you don't get drunk? No, no, that's not the plan at all. That's not the – I can't – why would you spit beer out? Well, you spit wine out, right, when you taste wine? Some people may. Yeah, I don't know.

Yeah, I would i would know that's not my style i haven't had any alcohol since that horrible incident with johnny walker black last month or memorial day weekend month and a half wow two no two months it's been two months and never again uh heath let's talk about who pierre garcon or player of your choice this is probably a little bit trolly but my player of choice would be Marquis Goodwin. Ah, all right. I like it. Controversy.

I'll let Jamie know. Yeah, I appreciate that. Well, I'm sure he'll be listening to the podcast as soon as you post it. Goodwin is going about 15 to 20 picks. No, more like 10 picks after Pierre Garçon. They're both going round eight, round nine in a 12-team league. And I think we've talked about this before, but what happened last year when Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback,

and what happened was he threw the ball to Marquis Goodwin a lot. And he's being drafted as if that means nothing because pierre garcon wasn't there and now pierre garcon's just going to come right in and be the number one wide receiver and that could happen but i don't think goodwin's adp reflects the upside that he has with garoppolo quarterback what do you make of the lack of touchdowns what What do you have, two last year, Marquis Goodwin? I think it's the same thing that I said about the lack of touchdowns for Garoppolo in the last five or six games. I think it's a little bit fluky. These were the yards for Goodwin with Garoppolo starting.

99, 106, 114, 37, 28. So the last two games were bad, but the first three, 99 or more yards. That's pretty nice. Average more than 10 targets per game. Had 43 targets from Garoppolo. Caught 67% of them. 29 catches for 384 yards. But obviously no Garçon.

Right, and that's what I don't know going into this year there was some talk how it was probably two or three weeks ago there somebody was talking to garcon about about his connection with jimmy garoppolo and i was kind of expecting to read something like yeah we've really hit it off and it's great working with him and it was more like it's going to take some time to make that connection and i i don't know what we should expect from a receiver his age that really didn't play very much last year. He may have lost a little bit of a step. Goodwin has three steps he could lose

and still be one of the fastest wide receivers in the league. Last year, he really grew his route tree. He was always a burner that could get behind any corner in the league, but he was running a lot more intermediate-type routes, and that's why you saw his targets go way up towards the end of the year. So you're a lot higher on Goodwin in non-PPR than you are in PPR? About 10 spots higher, is that right? Yeah, I am higher on him. I don't know if I'm... The difference may not be as big for me as it is for a lot of people. But yeah, I have him 31st in non-PPR. I have him 40th in PPR. And that is allowing

for the risk that Pierre Garçon gets more work than I would expect. I do think Garçon is a better, a safer bet in PPR, plus you might as well draft him earlier because he's going to be gone long before Goodwin. You have to take Goodwin. Would you rather have Goodwin or Devante Parker?

Oh, I'd rather have Devante. You know how much I love him. I've always been a big Devante Parker guy. Would you rather have Goodwin or Devante Parker? Oh, I'd rather have Devante. You know how much I love. I've always been a big Devante Parker guy. Would you rather have Goodwin or Chris Hogan? I think I'll take – I'll definitely take Goodwin in non-PPR. I'll take Hogan in PPR. All right, back to average draft position. We're up to round six in half PPR on Fantasy Pros.

So we did round five yesterday. Those were picks 49 through 60. Here's 61 through 72. We had the tight end run in round five. We had Jimmy Graham, Evan Ingram, and Greg Olson come off the board. We kind of talked about, look, some of the guys, when you start to get to the back end of the number two running backs and wide receivers. Now we're on to some bench players, flexes, as we get into round six.

Ronald Jones is the first pick of round six, 61 overall, round six in a 12-team league. Ronald Jones, Deion Lewis, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton. Ronald Jones, Deion Lewis, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton. I'll go one more. Drew Brees. So you've got Jones and Lewis. Then you've got Wentz, Newton, Brees, back-to-back-to-back, quarterbacks five, six, and seven off the board. The first five picks of round six. I'm going to gloss over the fact that I don't think any of these quarterbacks

should go this early because that's just the reality of the way that it works. So whatever. I assume Brees and Newton are the 6th and 7th quarterbacks off the board? Cam 6, Brees 7, Wentz 5. I'm perfectly fine with both of those guys in that range.

So I don't have any problem with where they're going in relation to the other quarterbacks. I've got some problems with Ronald Jones. He's a's a mystery i think right now yeah i mean i feel pretty confident in his floor to get the most carries on the tampa bay buccaneers and he'll probably score the most rushing touchdowns this is not a team that has produced a large amount of rushing touchdowns but the numbers i've got, it looks like they've averaged nine touchdowns on the ground over the last three years.

And we should expect Jameis Winston to score two or three of those. And then the other issue is they've been pretty clear that Charles Sims is their pass-catching running back. And I think Charles Sims is pretty good solely in that role as a pass-catching running back. So I don't know that he has very much upside when you limit the touchdowns and you limit the receptions like that so would you rather have dion lewis or ronald jones i'll take dion lewis really see that's interesting to me because at

least jones has the chance to be a feature back yeah i he does i don't know 40% of the workload in Tennessee If you're counting rushes and receptions Might just be more valuable than 60% in Tampa Bay Maybe Alright, let's move on So the first five picks were Ronald Jones, Deion Lewis, Wentz, Cam, Breeze. Two tight ends off the board after that, Kyle Rudolph and Delaney Walker.

On round five, we had Graham, Olsen, and Ingram. Not in that order, though. It was Graham, Ingram, and Olsen. Here in round six, the middle of round six, Kyle Rudolph, Delaney Walker go back to back. Then we have Marshawn Lynch, Michael Crabtree, Tevin Coleman, Devin Funchess, and Chris Hogan. First of all, those tight ends, Rudolph and Walker. Tight ends seven and eight going in the sixth round. Thoughts?

I like where they're going in relation to their tight ends. Like the quarterbacks, it's just a little bit earlier than I would want to take them. But I would take both of these guys over Evan Ingram. So in relation to that, I think they're both pretty decent values, especially for Walker. I think Walker will be a little better in PPR. Rudolph will be a little better in non-PPR. So in half PPR, they should probably be going in a pretty similar place. Okay.

Marshawn Lynch, Michael Crabtreeree Tevin Coleman, Devin Funchess Chris Hogan The three receivers off the board here at the end of round six Are Crabtree, Funchess, and Hogan The two running backs are Lynch and Tevin Coleman And I Don't think Crabtree Should be in the same range

As those other receivers You think he should be higher Yeah I think he's got a lot of upside in terms of possible target volume. I don't really think that the Ravens are going to be in a lot of positive game scripts, so I do think they'll throw the ball quite a bit.

And I expect Crabtree clearly is their most accomplished wide receiver. Now, if last year he fell off a cliff and he looks that bad in training camp this year then maybe we're gonna have to change our tune but right now i expect him to lead the team in targets and i think he's got a chance to be worth like in a ppr league at least fourth round value you don't think chris hogan has more i mean okayramshie would get more targets than Hogan, but you don't think Hogan has pretty big

target volume in him? Well, no. I mean, Julian Edelman's going to come back in Week 5 and get 12 targets a game. He is, but Brandon Cooks is obviously out. I don't know about 12 targets a game. And just to clarify for anybody that didn't get the joke, I don't mean that.

No, I know. I've got Hogan for 109 targets this year. 65 catches, 850 yards, 7 touchdowns. It's a number 3 receiver. I know you guys don't like Funches as the 27th receiver off the board. Not at all. And maybe if DJ Moore doesn't look ready in training camp,

I'll change my target projections in Carolina just a little bit. But I think he's definitely a more complete wide receiver. I expect him to overtake Funchess as the number one receiver at some point this year, and it might happen in training camp. All right, that's your ADP review for round six, and half PPR picks 61 through 72, courtesy of Fantasy Pros. We're going to finish the show. I'm sorry it's an abbreviated version of Fantasy Football today.

With your emails, fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is from Scott. Hey, Richard, Bill, Pete, and Bill. Richard, Bill, Pete, and Bill. This guy says, Scott says, if you don't know who they are, look up the last four head coaches for each NFL team. Every team has a Richard, a Bill, or a Pete? I don't know.

I mean, is this like Patriots coaches? Bill? I don't know. I wanted to ask you, who's a better RB2 pick, Marlon Mack or Ronald Jones? I think it's Marlon Mack. Really? Yeah. I don't think that – I know Dave doesn't agree with me because he's a big Ronald Jones guy.

I'm not sure how Jamie feels on that. But I think there's a better opportunity for Mack to score more touchdowns and catch more passes. I just don't know who Rich is because Bill, Pete, and Bill could be Pete Carroll, Bill Belichick. And it looks like Dick McPherson was the head coach before Bill Parcells. So that could be Richard or Rich. All right, I'm into that. Brandon in the mitten. Greeting Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive, and Dodge.

You know that? I, no. Those are the keys to winning in Dodgeball, in the movie Dodgeball. Dodge, Duck, Dip, Dive, and Dodge. Okay. You never seen Dodgeball? Yes, good movie.

Yeah, it's got the greatest line in movie history. What is the greatest line in movie history? They got lasers and tasers and all kinds of hazers. Oh, okay. Something like that. 12-team, non-PPR, six point per passing touchdown. I have the 10th pick, and I'd like to go running back, running back. What are your thoughts?

12-team, standard scoring. Would you go running back, running back with the 10th pick? I certainly wouldn't lock in to going running back, running back at that spot. I find myself with the 10th pick at the back end of the first round taking at least one wide receiver and sometimes two, but that's a reflection of the way that our drafts generally go. There are a lot of running backs flying off the board. We saw DeAndre Hopkins go ninth the other day.

So when you've got Odell Beckham, you've got Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, all those guys available sometimes for both of those picks, I'm going to take at least one of them. I think I'd be tempted if I could get like Kareem Hunt and Dalvin Cook. Kareem Hunt, Leonard Fournette, something like that. Exactly.

But Kareem Hunt's never available at the 10th pick in our league. All right, Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon and Delvin Cook? Yeah, or Gordon and Fournette. I would not like it as much if it was Fournette. Okay. From Joey.

Setting up my league in a 12-team half PPR, two running backs, two receivers, one flex. What is the right number of bench spots for my league? Five, six? What do you think? It depends on what you want to emphasize in this league. If you're wanting to emphasize who's the better drafter, then you can go with seven or eight. If you're wanting to leave it open to where guys can recover from injuries a little more easily,

then you can go down as low as five. I think six is a good number. From Vincent, PPR. Keep Keenan Allen in the fourth, Diggs in the eighth, or Ertz in the 11th? Keenan Allen in the fourth, Diggs in the eighth, Ertz in the 11th. Man. Ertz. It's Ertz.

I hate passing up on Keenan Allen in the fourth, but it's Ertz. And this is from John from a city between Richmond and Washington. Don't know. Dear Dave Matthews, Jamie Johnson, Heath Ledger, and Adam Sandler. That would be Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Adam. Pick two in a super flex PPR league. I have Zeke and Julio already. Pick two.

Adam Thielen, Travis Kelsey, Joe Mixon, Josh Gordon, Diggs, McCoy, Allen Robinson, Thielen, Kelsey, Mixon, Gordon, Diggs, LaShawn McCoy, Allen Robinson. I think I'd go Thielen and Kelsey. Thielen and Kelsey. You like Thielen better than Mixon. I do. Yeah, and Mixon's ADP is right up there with those guys. I'm just not sure that it should be.

We've talked about I don't know that he can get a workhorse role with Gio Bernard still there. Hey Heath, I traded Matthew Stafford for Alan Robinson in a Dynasty League yesterday. I think that was an exceptional A's trade, and it was proposed to be. Unless that was a 3QB league, I think you won that one. No, it is not.

1QB. Thanks everybody. Thank you all for listening. Oh no, I was going to say enjoy your weekend, but we've got another show for you tomorrow. Then you can enjoy your weekend. Enjoy your Thursday. For Heath, I'm Adam. Take it easy, everybody. See ya. See ya.