Fantasy Football Today - 07/29: Green, Kerryon, Tate and More Big News (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 29, 2019

A lot to catch up on from the weekend, so let's start with some rankings. A.J. Green or Tyler Boyd (1:30)? Joe Mixon or Le'Veon Bell (4:40)? Kerryon Johnson or Damien Williams (7:10)? Is Kerryon a total stud now that Theo Riddick is out? Also, how do we feel about the NYG pass catchers with Golden Tate out four games (12:10)? ... Players who look good in camp (17:00) including the real #2 WR for PIT and some rookies. Plus, are we too high on the elite TEs (21:00)? And more news and notes (28:00) with thoughts on Todd Gurley, Derrick Henry, the MIA RBs, Jordan Reed and more ... How to win your PPR league (42:00), and how to evaluate the group of WRs after the elite tier (48:00). We're talking Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen and about five others ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Hey, what's going on? We welcome you to Fantasy Football Today.

It is Monday, and it's almost August. It's almost time for some preseason football. Training camp, of course, is in full swing. I'm Adam Azer saying hello to Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Guys, good morning. How you doing? So animated. Yeah, I'm excited. All it took was a camera. That was your best intro in like three years. Yeah, seriously.

Yes, we're on video now. We're recording at 8.30 in the morning, which Heath and I have been doing all season long for Fantasy Baseball. So Dave and Jamie, good morning to you. Hope you had a nice party breakfast and all that stuff. Today, look, today's mostly a news show. There's a lot of it. AJ Green, gonna be out six to eight weeks

with an ankle injury. We're gonna start out with some rankings. We have the he looks good in camp storylines. We have the he's running with the first team storylines. Nikhil Harry is not running with the first team. So we'll talk about all that stuff. We got an email about tight ends. And let's get started with some rankings, fellas.

A.J. Green or Tyler Boyd? Well, I mean, in the wake of the A.J. Green injury and the fact that we don't know just how much A.J. Green we're going to get this year, I'll go with the one that's still standing, and that's Tyler Boyd. Yeah, I'm going to take A.J. Green. I think it's possible he misses the first three or four games of the season as like a worst-case scenario. And even if that's the case, I would rather have my number four receiver

starting for three or four games, and then I'll start A.J. Green for the final 12 as opposed to 16 games of Tyler Boyd. I would agree wholeheartedly. I think I'm going with the three games. If it's eight weeks, that would be week three that he would miss. You have to obviously consider the fact

that he's missed time two of the last three years. Hamstring tear 2016 last year with the toe injury, but 13 games of AJ Green is going to be better than the 16 games of Tyler Boyd. And Boyd also had, you know, a two game absence last year with a knee injury. So I'll take AJ Green ceiling over Tyler Boyd ceiling.

Um, I just think that green has a more likelihood to finish with better stats by the end of the season. Can I give a third option here, Adam? Ooh, I don't know what the option could possibly be. AJ Green or Tyler Boyd or neither one of the season. Can I give a third option here, Adam? Ooh, I don't know what the option could possibly be. A.J. Green or Tyler Boyd or?

Neither one of these guys. Because with A.J. Green at 13, if I knew that I was going to get 13 games from A.J. Green, I would probably take him ahead of Tyler Boyd. Boyd is not an exciting. He's a little decent in PPR because of the volume that I expect him to get. But like Jamie said,

no guarantee that Boyd's going to get 16, but he might get 13 or 14 and AJ Green might only get nine or 10 because even though he's coming back after week two, week three, he didn't have a training camp. This is a new offense for him. He's had nagging injuries the last couple of seasons. I'm kind of not interested in drafting AJ Green. It's a sentence that I don't like saying, but it's kind of how I feel right now. I'm not looking for him unless it's round five. That'll be where he ends up going. Yeah. Four or five turn. He was, uh, he was the 34th overall player on, on CBS sports average opposition prior to the injury. So a little surprising. He was actually the 15th receiver off the board. So I, you know, I, I thought he'd be in that, you know,

10 through 12 range, but, um, the fact that he was actually the 15th receiver off the board. So I thought he'd be in that 10 through 12 range, but the fact that he was already trending in the wrong direction, this is not going to make people excited. This was definitely going to be the first player I nominate in today's auction. The first guy I nominate. I'm not in the auction. What would you pay for him? I didn't know there was an auction today.

You want to get in it? What are you doing today? What time? You don't want to do this. I don't really want to do it. No, I kind to do it no you're going you're going to say no that's there's a reason why you weren't invited i want to do it no i want in the auction okay i will message you okay i'm not sure i actually want in the auction but for the sake of the listeners i want you all to know that i think i kind of want to be in the auction now tyler boyd we've mentioned this a lot the numbers

were better with aj green than without aj than without A.J. Green. But when you look a little further into that, and I've been guilty of sort of spreading that. It's not a myth. It's the truth. But what I didn't really focus on was a lot of the production without A.J. Green was with Jeff Driscoll. Because Andy Dalton only played two and a half more games after the A.J. Green injury. And I'm not counting the one game where AJ Green came back, got hurt again. So basically he played eight games, got hurt, missed just about the rest of the season. Tyler Boyd, the first two games he played without AJ Green were against New Orleans and Baltimore.

Not exactly the easiest matchups. And then after that, it was basically the Jeff Driscoll show. And then Boyd himself missed two games. That's also part of the Joe Mixon thing. I mean, does this affect Joe Mixon? Because I've also brought up several times. and I'll go to my next rankings question. I brought up several times that Joe Mixon was a lot better in wins than losses. They were 5-3 with A.J. Green and 1-7 or 0-8 without A.J. Green. They were terrible without A.J. Green. So look, he might only miss

one game. Who knows? He might miss none. That's unlikely. But Joe Mixon or Le'Veon Bell? That's my next question. Le'Veon Bell going ahead of him in ADP. Joe Mixon or Le'Veon Bell? What I really want to talk about is how, if anything, this means anything for Mixon's fantasy value.

I'm still going to go with Joe Mixon ahead of Le'Veon Bell. It's closer now than it was before. And if you want the breakdown, seven games without A.J. Green last year, Mixon averaged 13.3 non-PPR fantasy points per game, 16.4 in full PPR. And then seven games with A.J. Green, 13.9 non-PPR, so only six-tenths of a point better per game, and 16.9 PPR points, so a half point better. He was a lot better in wins than

losses. It didn't really matter whether AJ was on the field or not. No, I didn't either. It didn't matter if it was Dalton or Driscoll under center. This is an offense that now is really going to revolve around Joe Mixon. I think that there's still plenty of things to be excited about with him.

I'll take Le'Veon in PPR. I expect him to get more targets. I think they're both in kind of questionable offenses. But I'll take Le'Veon a spot ahead of him in PPR. I'll take Mixon in non-PPR. I like Mixon slightly better as well. I just think that I'm hopeful to see what Zach Taylor can do for Joe Mixon, similar to what Sean McVay was able to

do for Todd Gurley. Last question on this injury here. Andy Dalton, still in a deeper league, a two-quarterback league, still have some appeal because he actually was pretty good last year before A.J. Green's injury. It's funny because on our side, his average draft position is not registered.

Out of 234 players being drafted, he's not one of them, and there's 27 quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him. So he's not going to get picked. I think if you're inclined to look at Dalton, you pick him up off waivers, and two quarterback leagues that everybody drafts three, he'll get drafted, but that's about it. I still think he's a starter in a

two quarterback league. Yeah, I think he was on pace for 34 touchdowns before the injury. All right, let's get to our next news item. Theo Riddick getting cut. And now the question, Kerryon Johnson or Damian Williams? Who do you guys go with? Damian Williams with a minor injury it seems right now, but Kerryon

Johnson or Damian Williams? I kind of wonder if carry on Johnson shouldn't have been in the prior question. I moved him into my top 10 running backs in people are I did for both. Yeah, with Theo Riddick gone, you look at this situation and I compare him to mix in who's in a very

similar situation. I compare him to Dalvin Cook to Leonard Fournette. I think he belongs right in that group of running backs. Averaged 85 yards per game last year with Riddick on the team. Now with no Riddick, I anticipate he's going to be just as good. Yes, he's got some injury concerns, but Joe Mixon has some injury concerns. Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette have some injury concerns. The sky's the limit. He could be a top five back this year, and he's a second round pick for me. It's funny. I did a radio interview over the weekend, and they limit. He could be a top five back this year and he's a second round pick for me. It's funny I did a radio

interview over the weekend and they asked me who could be somebody that makes the Christian McCaffrey leap from year one to year two and this was the first guy that came to my mind. I mean it's such a great situation for him if he stays healthy. I mean that's been a problem for him obviously but if he plays

13 plus games, 16 games I mean the Lions are a sneaky team right now, you know, with what they've done defensively to add Mike Daniels to unbelievable defensive line, they're in such a tough division. That's a big problem. But offensively with Darrell Bevel now calling plays, I think you're going to see carry on Johnson have a chance for a big season. Well, I put this in the believe it or not piece this morning. And I think it's sneaky how good of a situation the lions are for carry on Johnson right now,

because no Theo Riddick. He, yes, he has somebody he's sharing with, but if they're bad, he's probably the guy on the field. Not right. Anderson.

I think their defense is definitely improved. I don't think it's going to be good, but it's not, it's not front is going to be, it's not, it's not, it might be the best one in football. The offensive line is good.

It's not, it's not great, but it's good. He's got two deep threats to keep defenses honest in Gallaudet and Marvin Jones. I love this situation for carry on. So what could mess it up? You already mentioned the injuries. That's it.

That's the only concern. That is not it. We've got a coaching staff that loves to use multiple running back. And when Matt Patricia was asked about it. I'm not sure Darryl Bevel does. Because he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. He's got Kerryon Johnson now.l Bevel does. Because he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. He's got Kerryon Johnson now. Okay, but Kerryon Johnson isn't Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch.

I think he might be. He could be. I think he might be. He's got talent. I'm not going to say that he doesn't have talent. Sorry, Heath. I just popped you on the shoulder. It's okay.

Patricia talked about how—we just have no room. Patricia talked about how he wants to use the other running backs and the tight ends and the receivers and how these guys are going to all pitch in to help replace Theo Riddick for now. Look, it makes perfect sense. Even with the Lions using multiple running backs, it would make perfect sense if they start carry on. They use carry on for a series. They use C.J. Anderson for a series. And then in passing situations, it's back carry on.

Makes perfect sense. He also has higher than normal injury risk. We can talk about it compared to Cook and Fournette and the injury risk. I don't think compared to any of the running backs in that range. He's healthy now. That's all you got to worry about. I mean, he's healthy now. Sure, but obviously guys are going to get hurt.

It's the nature of the game. Right, but a guy that's gotten hurt, knee, rib, shoulder, hamstring, this is in the last two years. It's four different injuries. Are we talking about Kerion Johnson or Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette? Or Damon Williams. Quite as many. Damon Williams hasn't had four injuries in the last... No, but he hasn't been a full-time starter. I mean, all these guys have

dollars. Right. All these guys are good. No one is perfect. You have to look at situation if you're going to shoot for upside. And his situation is as good as anybody in the NFL right now. It's really good. He's going to be the first guy to nominate in the auction today. Which, by the way, I'm not going to be in.

So, all right, fine. So that's $100 budget or what? Yes. How much do you think Kerryon Johnson goes for? 20? Yeah, 21 or two. Right.

And I'm not going to get him. I'm not going to spend up. I don't know. I mean, I think the injury is really the only thing that could be. I think. Agreed.

Jamie and Heath have a good point here. I mean, all think the injury is really the only thing that could be. I think Jamie and Heath have a good point here. I mean, all the running backs in that range are risky. Johnson had three games with 15 or more carries. That's it last year. And he was great in all of them. He's got just such a beautiful opportunity here. So I'm not sure we ever answered the question. Are you guys taking him ahead of Damian Williams? Yes. No.

OK, are you taking him ahead of Dalvin Cook? Yes. No. Okay. Are you taking him ahead of Dalvin Cook? Yes. No. Maybe. Because I'm just, I'm, Cook worries me for almost the exact same reason. I'm taking him

ahead of Fournette as well. Yes. I won't do that. And Chubb and PPR. Okay. Yes. Final, well,

let me ask a follow-up about the Lions situation. Theo Riddick, look, he's a 50-catch guy four straight years. Does this affect anybody else on the team? Marvin Jones, Kenny Galladay, whatever?

I gave everybody a small tick in targets. I think it gets spread around. I think it gives more opportunity for a TJ Hawkinson breakout if he's ready to do that. Amendola is in the slot there. And if they use him like they use Golden Tate, which, I mean, no one's going to draft Amendola anyway, there's 50 catches.

All right. Final rankings question. Sterling Shepard or Sammy Watkins? With Golden Tate looking at a four-game suspension, which he apparently is optimistic he could beat, let's assume he's got a four-game suspension. Sterling Shepard or Sammy Watkins? Watkins.

Shepard. I moved Shepard or Sammy Watkins? Watkins. Shepard. I moved Shepard up this weekend. I'm not really worried about his thumb injury. I think Golden Tate may have a very good case, but I don't recall a lot of people ever winning this argument against the NFL. So I've got Shepard ahead of Watkins now. I've got him ahead by three spots. The Giants.

What a mess. What a mess. I mean, what's your overall thought here with Corey Coleman out for the season, with Golden Tate facing a four-game suspension, with Sterling Shepard? You know, he has a decent chance to play week one. I think it's almost like expected that he will be back for week one, but it's not a certainty.

But he has a broken finger. You know, how do you feel about Evan Ingram and Saquon Barkley, et cetera? I think those guys are still the same. You know, I mean, Barkley's going to get as many touches as he can handle. You know, you hear Le'Veon Bell talking about 500 touches. Saquon better be ready for that as well. Ingram was, you know, already their leading receiver in my mind going into the season. And that's not going to change. You know, I mean, his numbers were so good without Odell Beckham on the field. He should be the focal point of the passing game. You have a coach who's a former tight ends coach, you know, who likes to lean on that position and Pat Shermer, you know, Eli's going to lean on Evan Ingram as we've seen, you know, even if it's Daniel Jones at some point

during the season, I just think there's a lot to like about what Evan Ingram brings to the table. Let me follow up and say this. Two things. Ingram, as a rookie, his 16-game pace without Beckham, 72 catches, 835 yards, and 8 touchdowns as a rookie.

Last year, he only played 4 games without Beckham. His pace was 88 catches, 1,280 yards, and four touchdowns. So we're talking amazing tight end production here. And that was, you know, we were saying, well, but now they have Golden Tate, so maybe you got to take a little bit away from that. But if they don't have Golden Tate for the first four games, I've been saying all along, I don't want Evan Ingram as a top 50 pick.

I don't feel comfortable there. But now I think it makes more sense because it's only four games. And then after that, you know, he goes back to a little bit of uncertainty for me, but still like that, that's you. He could be amazing in those first four games of the season without Golden Tate.

I mean, I think it'll be amazing for 16 games if he stays healthy, but you know, his numbers have just popped to such a high degree without Beckham on the field, 16 games over the last two years. And numbers have just popped to such a high degree without Beckham on the field, 16 games over the last two years, and nine of those, he's hit 15 or more PPR points. All four of those last year, over 70 yards receiving, that's unheard of for a tight end. And there's so much more to it than that. He's in his third year, second year in this offense, clean bill of health coming into camp this year for the most part. I think that Evan Ingram is a top 40 player now, Adam. I think you're

looking at him sometime before the end of round four, which is where he was going anyway. But now you'll see people gravitate toward maybe the middle of round four if they want to lock him up because of that hot start. Then I'm not drafting. That is so early.

I'd rather wait for O.J. Howard then. It could be just for O.J. Howard, though. It could be just as good. Top 40 is barely later than Kittle. I mean, that's really quite early. He won't get to that point. I've got him 44. I think end of the round four is good.

100%. Oh, it's a difference of four spots? No, eight spots. All right. Well, a couple of things I want to promote. We have a Facebook group, and I've been already called out in the Facebook group for not allowing enough posts in. So guess what?

I'm going to allow more posts in, and I'm going to start Keeper Threads. You don't have to ask your Keeper questions because I won't approve them, but I will do a, hey, everybody, here's a Keeper Thread. Ask your Keeper questions here kind of deal. But if you want to ask some good questions that the whole group can sort of help you out with

or get involved with, join the Fantasy Football Today Facebook group. Just go on Facebook and search for Fantasy Football Today. The Pick 6 podcast, if you're a football fan, you probably are if you're listening to this show, check out the Pick 6 podcast every day or Monday through Friday. Will Brinson's hosting that. He brings on Pete Prisco and Brady Quinn and all of his friends. And if you want all of our shows, cbssports.com slash podcast, cbssports.com slash podcast. Guys, today we're going to talk a little bit about how to win your PPR league.

We have a ton of news and notes. And then I want to focus a bit on the second tier of wide receivers after the elite ones are off the board. A tier that AJ Green used to belong to. We're going to bump him out of there now. But T.Y. Hilton, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, depending on which tier you're putting him in. I want to look at that group a little bit and talk about who's got the most upside, downside, and whatnot. For now, though, there are a bunch of he's looking good in camp stories right now. Who's your favorite he's looking good in camp guy? I have two.

One is Mark Andrews in Baltimore, and one is John Brown in Buffalo. I like what I've read about both of them so far. I like D.D. Westbrook. I have been waiting, and it seems like he's getting more and more buzz every day, and as soon as he moves up a little bit in everyone else's rankings, I'm going to

increase his target share because I've still only got him at 22%. Someone tweeted yesterday he hasn't dropped a pass yet in practice. I took this as a little more sarcastic from you. Who's doing something that we should get overexcited about

that we really shouldn't? The two that came to mind for me were DK Metcalf because he looks good all the time. And I forgot the second one. Oh, Brashad Perryman. Another guy. Another guy that looks good

in short when the lights aren't on. You know, so I don't know. It was good to hear good things about Paris Campbell yesterday. That was exciting. Yeah, but didn't it come with the second team? Look, no one's more excited about him than me.

I was reading the Frank Reich book. Right, right, right. Yeah. Long term, he's going to be great. I think Paris Campbell, Hunter Renfro of the Raiders, Miles Boykin of Baltimore are all getting some. He looks good. And that just tells me like. I the Raiders, Miles Boykin of Baltimore, all getting some. He looks good. And that just tells me like...

I'm much more excited about Boykin. Yeah, but they're going to pump up the rookie wide receivers right now. That's why I took it from you. That's why I took it from you. And Perryman's a guy that they brought in, you know, after losing Humphreys and Deshaun Jackson, you know, to hopefully do some things for them. The guy that stood out to me, you know, as somebody who I think is going to be moving up my radar

and probably would be a late-round pick for me now would be Dante Moncrief in Pittsburgh, guys. Is he the second Steelers wide receiver that we should be drafting? Yes. It's so funny because their average draft position is like 0.7 apart. They're both going at number 125 overall. They're moving in different directions, though. They're moving in different directions, though. They're moving in different directions. Yeah, I would take Moncrief over Washington.

You have to at this point. It's so funny because it feels like Dante Moncrief's been in the league for 20 years. I think he's only 24 years old. No way. He's young. I'm looking it up right now. He's very young. He's going to be their starter.

I'm still hopeful for Washington, but he's going to be their starter. He's very young. He's going to be their starter. I'm still hopeful for Washington, but he's going to be their starter. He's 33. No, I'm just kidding. He'll be 26 in August. He's 25. His best season, Dante Moncrief, 733 yards, six touchdowns with the Colts in 2015. He also had a seven-touchdown season in nine games with the Colts in 2016. He hasn't had a super productive career,

but he's got an opportunity, and Dante Moncrief, someone that should be on your radar that you should be taking with a late-round pick. They have 200 targets available with Brown and James gone. Right. So there's opportunity. I'm going to take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, we got an email.

I don't know if the guys are going to want me to read it. I'm going to read it anyway. I'm probably going to get a little guff for it, but it's about the elite tight ends. We'll talk about that. Fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Got some fun quotes to read for you and much more. Stick around. We'll be right back. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook Born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an

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Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. Welcome back to the video version of Fantasy Football today. Be aware and stay safe. football today the actual live video show at noon eastern the one on hq you can find videos of that on uh on our youtube page cbs sports and uh we got it man we're just so dressed up here heath what's going on like the baseball show it's t-shirts what's up with the football show so for yeah well the problem during baseball season i didn't have to do a video two hours after the

podcast i just would do the podcast and then sit at my desk most of the rest of the day. I guess I could wear a t-shirt and then change after the podcast if you'd like. Yeah, I mean, you need to get everybody to start dressing down a little bit. At least you came in with the sunglasses hanging off the shirt. All right, well, that's good. I did have sunglasses. I recognize that. Yeah, you took the sunglasses off the shirt, which was probably a good thing.

But I liked it. It was a nice look for you. Okay, here's the email. Does it pull your chest hair when you take the sunglasses off? Yes. It's from Justin at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Now, look, I'm just going to tell you straight up, there are a lot of people out there, a lot of fantasy analysts out there.

One of them makes a great point. I got no problem talking about it. So this is something that Matthew Berry wrote. But Justin says, hey, Nick, Carson, Donovan, and Randall. And those, of course, are Eagles quarterbacks. I think you guys might be a little too high on the big three tight ends. I completely agree that it's great to have that positional advantage. However, I think the big three are very unlikely to put up similar numbers as last year. Check out these stats from Matthew Berry, of course, from ESPN. Matthew Berry says,

What they did last season wasn't just awesome, it was historic. Over the past five NFL seasons, here are the top four fantasy tight end seasons. Kelsey last year, Ertz last year, Gronkowski in 2014, and Kittle last year. So, yeah, I mean, these guys are coming off amazing seasons, and it seems like we've sort of recognized that in our drafts we've been a little too early to draft at least Ertz and Kittle. Do you think we're too high on the big three tight ends? I keep moving them down. I mean, it's just a matter of, again,

it's what these three guys will do compared to the rest of the field and what the value is compared to these other guys. If Ingram's going to climb up a little bit, then that's another one that I'll probably start to avoid as well. But it's, you know, I mean, most of my drafts have been Ingram or Howard. I've taken so many

drafts with both those two guys just because I'd rather get them in the round 4-5 range. In some cases for Howard a little bit later. I just think that, you know, Ertz is going Howard, a little bit later, I just think that, you know, arts is going to lose a little bit just with the Sean Jackson. Their kid is going to lose with the other mouths that they've had there. And kills numbers are the ones that scare me the most,

just because I think you're going to see the touchdown should probably be seven or eight, you know, similar to what arts does, but the splash plays he had last year, it's just hard to replicate that. No, but I actually kills the one I'm the most excited about reaching those

numbers again urts is the one that i keep moving down you want to talk about guys that are looking good in camp and the reports have been glowing it's it's dallas goddard and i'm hearing about how goddard is catching a ton of passes and wentz seems real comfortable with him on screens and i think there's a real chance on top of deshahaun Jackson being in Philly, that Ertz's numbers have no chance of repeating. 116 catches. Oh, agreed. 1,100 yards. So that's the one that I'm moving down.

But I think when you're drafting Kelsey in the top 15, Kittle in round two, Ertz late round two, round three. But Kelsey's not going to the top 15 in Ertz and Kittle. In ADP? Much later. Okay. So then I must be alone on tight end island here.

Kittle's ADP right now is 37.5. He's the 38th player off the board. Ertz is at 29.5. He's the 28th player off the board. And Kelsey's at 17.1. If I knew for sure that I could get those guys in those shots. But you are.

Our drafts are different. Our drafts are dramatically different. Hold on, hold on. Maybe I'll start trying a little bit more to not get these guys and to see if I can have them kind of fall into my lap a little bit more. Even if they're at 75% of where they were last year, they'd still be top 10 receivers in PPR. Yeah, I don't have a problem at all with Kelsey in the middle of the second round to top 15 pick even.

I think I took him 14th because I don't see anybody else in Kansas City that's going to cut into his target share. Kittle, I agree with what Jamie said. Ertz, I agree with what Dave said. I think they're both third round picks. Yeah. But I think there's a little separation there between Kelsey and there. But we talk about this a lot.

You know, when you get to the back end of the first round, you start to see how the board looks. You know, if there's a handful of receivers that you like, you take a running back handful of running backs. You like you take a receiver when you get to the back end of the second round. When you're coming back the other way. You don't necessarily have to reach one of those guys if both of them are still there. And if you are so inclined, you know, let's see how it plays out. You know, when you get to the turn, you know, if you're picking in one of those first four picks i'd like that's where they're gonna go i mean i i think the 38 is a little bit too ridiculous for kittle round four basically right right you know i mean that's

what you're saying evan ingram's gonna go and ingram's certainly much further than that right i think urts is probably the you know if even if you like kittle urts is going to be the first one that gets drafted and so i think 25 through 30 is the spot you'll end up seeing for probably both those guys, maybe 25 to 32. Here's the last point I want to make. And this is just how I feel about the tight end. I'm kind of nervous about any other tight end in fantasy this year.

I think Kelsey's a sure thing. You just said you're taking, I think Kittle's a sure thing. I like, I like Ingram in round four now better than I did before. I think he's got a shot at a sure thing. You just said you're taking I think Kittle is a sure thing. I like Ingram in round four now better than I did before. I think he's got a shot at a thousand yard.

If you take the first four games of the season without Golden Tate and then the other 12, assuming he's healthy for him, I think he's got a chance to get to a thousand yards and do what you've talked about with him and OJ Howard

starting to get up into that next tier. But I'm talking about more like from seven on down at tight end, I just don't want to stream. I don't want to deal with having to find a tight end off waivers each week. I don't want to start, um, a guy that if he doesn't score a touchdown, he's going to give me six or seven fans.

It's also what you're passing up in round two though. I mean, you're passing up. That's really what the conversation comes down to. The players that are available when these tight ends are on the board, are you comfortable giving them up to lock up that tight end security blanket? And that's going to be a personal choice for a lot of players. I don't mind. Well, carry on, Johnson

or Travis Kelsey? Kelsey. Kelsey. Kelsey. But carry on over the other two? Yes. Okay. And by the way, surprisingly on Fantasy Football Calculator, in non-PPR, Kittle's going ahead of Ertz. In half PPR, and I'm assuming PPR, Ertz is going ahead of George Kittle,

both of them late round three to early round four. Thanks a lot for the email, Justin. Try to get some more emails later at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. All right, some news and notes. Again, today, not one of the most wacky fun shows necessarily, but we got some really important information for you that we got to catch you up on.

So some fun quotes from around football. Lamar Jackson said, quote, You guys saw me last year. I was horrible. A lot of ducks. It's been better. A lot of tight spirals. Okay, I was horrible.

You don't hear quarterbacks say that too often. But yes, Lamar, you were pretty bad at playing quarterback. This is from the Sun Sentinel. Both Drake and Balazs will undoubtedly be featured in the Dolphins offense this season. Thoughts on the Dolphins running back situation right now? They'll take Drake first, but Balazs is climbing. Yeah. I've tempered X climbing. What's going to happen because I was higher than everyone on Drake?

I'm going to keep moving him down at the same rate everyone else does, and I'm still going to draft him in all the drafts. I think the last draft, I got him in the sixth round. I'll probably get him for $5 today. Do you believe in cream rising to the top? No, not in Miami. If you did, Drake would be the pick well that that he would have

been the pick last year too and he was better right i think he'll be fine i think he's going to be a top 24 running back in pbr for sure no and i don't think bellage stinks part of this is i feel like the dolphins are giving bellage a chance to earn and he's doing well see what he's doing yeah sounds like he's doing fine but it also means that they know what they have in Drake and that if Balazs just doesn't cut it to their expectations, they're just going to go with Drake. And I would, this is an assumption on my part.

I would assume that they would rather have Drake in there on passing downs than Balazs. Yeah. Cause he's just, he's just much smoother as a pass catcher and he can still bounce off defenders and make plays after contact. And I like that about drake a lot and this is a dolphin team that's going to be trailing in a lot of games

this year so to me it's a no-brainer drake is is the guy to go all right but there's got to be some questions around five ish about whether the coaching staff thinks drake is a heavy workload type of guy you know i mean right it's gotta be some questions he's never been though he's not going to think i don't he had the one stretch after Ajayi was traded and Damian Williams got hurt, and that's really been it. He was so awesome. In his collegiate career and his NFL career. All right, here's a quote.

Let's get the next quote here from Mike Zimmer. This is on Dalvin Cook. Let's do what we need to do to win and not worry about who gets the carries or how many yards they get. Ooh. He's the anti many yards they get. Ooh. He's the anti-Sean Payton. Ooh.

Well, no, Sean Payton does the same thing. At least Sean Payton recognizes the good in fantasy and he'll throw us a bone every now and then. Yes, it's called Taysom Hill. Yeah, but no, Sean Payton gave that incredibly convoluted, weird quote about how great fantasy football is. I'm still not sure why he thinks fantasy football is great based on that crazy convoluted quote, but yeah.

Mike Zimmer does not care about your fantasy team. I think he was just trying to temper expectations for Dalvin Cook, but it seems like a positive approach. Cook's got to prove himself. Cook is like the anti-coach. Whatever Coach wants, Cook hasn't given him so far. He's torn ACL and then hamstring problems.

Coaches hate that. I mean, you know, he can't control the ACL, but, you know, he wants him to be the guy. I think everything that they've done this offseason suggests that. He just has to prove it now. And from the Washington Post, talking about Jordan Reed, who's running without foot pain. Jamie, this one I think I want you to weigh in on.

Reed is all about a good foot rub he gets one before and after each practice as part of an extensive maintenance routine to help keep his most important assets healthy and uh obviously just so everybody recalls jamie's quote i would highly highly recommend getting pedicure i don't get them enough. So, yeah, a little foot rub for Jordan Reed, and he's going to be just fine this year. Top five tight end. Easy. Easy. Get those feet right.

I will say this. If those feet are right, he has a chance. He does. And apparently he's looking great in camp. Well, he's their best receiver. Wait, wait, wait. I think the worst take in Heath history was given on the Fantasy Football Today video show on Friday. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You said you'd take 12 games of Jordan Reed over 16 games of Eric Ebron. Is that true? That's correct. In PPR, yes. Correct. That's a terrible take. No. It was a very funny exchange because we brought you on for the last two segments of the show on Thursday and Friday.

Yeah. And we had the Alan Hearns news. And I said, oh, we haven't talked about Alan Hearns yet. I'll just throw it to Adam when we bring him on. So, Adam, yeah, blah, blah, blah. Welcome to the show. What do you think about the Dolphins signing Alan Hearns? And you gave this very thoughtful answer,

and then Heath just rips you. Yeah. I just didn't. I thought it was like a joke segment. I didn't know Jamie meant to take that seriously. Adam was talking about drafting Alan Hearns in like the 14th round. In a 14-team league. In a 14-team league.

14-team league. It could be a late-round pick. So for those of you that will participate in the podcast league with us, Adam will be drafting Alan Hearns in round 10. I was not prepared for that question, and I regret the answer. Well, the best part was, Adam, I'm going to ask you about Alan Hearns. Where did he sign? Yeah, the news had just broken.

It just happened. Yeah, it just happened. Yes, so I was caught off guard. I left you a lot of room to do some detailed research. Yeah, thank you for that. But Dave, how about you? 12 games of Jordan Reed or 16 games of Eric Ebron in PPR? 16 games of Eric Ebron.

I'm looking forward. What's the wager? Let's make the bet. You have to get Heath Serka. How do you make this bet? Ebron has to stay healthy for 16, and Reed has to stay healthy for 12. We need a per-game ratio bet. Yeah, per-game ratio bet.

So the bet is who's going to be better per game. Well, Jordan, I'm going to have to spot him some points probably. Well, I think the bet has to have some type of chest hair wager, and I just don't want to be part of that. Do they do waxing at the pedicure salon, Adam? I don't want to be part of that. I might shave if Adam had to do it on camera. I have to shave my chest.

Nobody wants to hear about this. The big news, AJ Green, we know about. Derrick Henry has a lower leg injury. For the record, everybody would watch you guys get your chest waxed on camera. No one wants to see you with a blade. Yeah, that's probably true. We would definitely. Go with the wax.

40-year-old virgin. What was it? What was it? The thing we did in Foxborough, and you and I were in the dressing room changing and you said, I don't have back hair. I don't. Right, but you made a point to show me.

Okay, that is... I'm not even getting into that because that is just not true. You did. We were changing. I was changing into a different shirt. You said, stop making fun of me about my back. He showed you his back. Guys, Derek Henry has a lower leg injury.

Are we worried about that? Not yet. Not good. Is it lower leg or is it foot? He was in a walking They didn't indicate whether it's foot or ankle. They are being very, very quiet about it. Well, they did say day-to-day. If he doesn't practice this week, I will change it on Saturday.

Okay. Deion Lewis would be moving up. Calvin Ridley's day-to-day. The Rams have been talking about their plan to limit Todd Gurley's workload. Do you kind of feel like it's one of these things where the reports don't really matter? We just don't know how it's going to hold up. It could be week eight, and uh-oh, the knee flared up, and he's out three weeks.

It's kind of a guessing game, right? Yep. That's how it's going to be. I'll be encouraged if they let him loosen at least one joint practice. They've got two joint practices, two different teams. I think it's like four total days of practice. If they let him loosen one of those, I'll be encouraged. Not wearing a red jersey. No red jersey.

And I don't even know if he had anything over his knee. He might have had like a little sleeve on his knee, but it's not like he had a big red. It was either a little sleeve or it was nothing. We have on Fantasy Football today on CBS Sports HQ, Evan Washburn, one of our CBS Sports sideline reporters for their NFL coverage. He's doing stuff for us.

He'll be at Rams practice on Tuesday, and he will be on our show to give us the latest on Todd Gurley. Perfect. Gurley or carry on? Carry on. Carry on. Gurley or Mike Evans? Evans.

Evans. I think Evans, yeah. All right, let's finish up the notes here and talk about some more fun stuff. I would, just to wrap it up, I'd take Gurley over the other two tight ends not named kelsey okay uh these guys are getting first team reps maurice harris and philip dorsett working ahead of nikhil harry for the patriots devin singletary getting a lot of first team reps according to espn uh dallas running back

darius jackson got first team reps new orleans we Yeah, yeah. That one might matter. Like we need to figure out who the handcuff is for Zeke. And that might be it. And they're even talking about how Mike Weber could be his competition for that job. Not Tony Pollard. Like they've got Pollard locked into this change of pace type role. And they're not going to give him a chance to be the lead back in Dallas. If Zeke holds out. All right.

So are you drafting a handcuff for Ezekiel Elliott? Not yet. Not yet. August 7th. Keith Kirkwood getting first team reps with Michael Thomas out. That's a new Orleans wide receiver. And that's with Ted Ginn. So Trey Kwan Smith isn't getting them.

Right. Which is kind of weird. It's early. Devin Singletary, though. There's some injury situations here. Gore's hurt. Surprise. Actually, it is kind of a surprise, right?

Just because he's almost never hurt. All it's going to take is Devin Singletary to get a handful of big plays in the preseason and his ADP is just going to rock it up. Another one in Green Bay is Dexter Williams getting first-team reps, along with Aaron Jones, because Jamal Williams is dealing with a hamstring injury. He's pretty good, by the way. In terms of guys looking good in camp, we talked about a lot of them,

the rookie wide receivers, Dante Moncrief, Leonard Fournette's been getting a lot of good publicity. Andre Ellington, who's on Tampa Bay now. Bruce Arians talking about Andre Ellington, guys. Could be their passing downs back if no one else steps up. Yeah, I'm surprised they don't kick the tires on Theo Riddick either. Ellington actually had a dislocated finger in the middle of practice, popped it back in, and went back out there and scored a touchdown. We're going to have Pete Prisco on Fantasy Football today

a couple times this week. He just finished going to Tampa, and apparently Bruce Arians was glowing about Ronald Jones as well. Oh, wow. Oh, this is going to be a really annoying one. This backfield's very annoying. Yep. We're actually going to spend some time this week

on FFT doing that as well. Being annoying? Being annoying, yeah. Bring me on for that. I'll come on for those segments. I'm going through some of the more complicated backfield. Delaney Walker, looking good, and the last time he played, he was a top six tight end.

Obviously getting a little bit worse, but, you know, involved. So, Delaney Walker, is he a top 12 tight end for you guys? He might be by the time we get closer to the season. Right now he's just outside for me. Okay. This would be a tight end to get excited about

if he can stay healthy all camp long, plays with the starters nonstop in the preseason, looks fine out there, an easy target to go get in the double-digit rounds if you want to wait on tight end. My answer is yes. He's 11th. Wonderful. Mark Andrews or Delaney Walker?

Andrews right now, but I can see that changing. Delaney. David? Oh, it's Andrews for now. Okay. Trent Williams? Trent Williams not looking like he's going to return to the Redskins, according to Jason Lockenfora.

So don't worry. They'll just get that veteran first-round pick left tackle, Eric Flowers, who's playing left tackle for the Redskins. Oh, boy. And the Rams extended Sean McVay and their GM, Les Snead. When we come back. Wait, theoretic couple spots just while you're wrapping up news. He's visited New Orleans so far and Denver today.

Yeah, New Orleans would be pretty interesting. I mean, Denver, that would be a clear path. But New Orleans, that would be pretty interesting. All right, if that happens... What's the clear path in Denver? To be the passing downs guy. Yeah, he replaced Booker. Booker's not a lock to make the playoffs.

But it's not, I wouldn't be interested in drafting Riddick in Denver or anywhere. No, I mean, he's a buy-in. It would hurt Lindsey, who's getting a lot of attention in the passing game. You know, I think he's like Alan Hearns. I might draft him in a 14-team PPR league or something like that. He's in the Hearns range. Okay, when we come back, I might draft him in a 14 team PPR league or something like that. You know, he's in the, he, the,

in the Hearns range. Okay. Um, when we come back, I'm going to ask you guys how to win your PPR league. We've done a lot of PPR drafts. I want to know what you're thinking right now. How do we win a PPR league?

And we'll talk about that group of wide receivers that I find so interesting. And if we have time, some emails, fantasy football at cbsi.com. We'll be right back. Miller light, the light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time.

When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can. They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like Miller time. Learn more at MillerLite.ca. Must be legal drinking age. All right, I'm going to direct this to Heath. Heath, you're walking down the street.

You're going to the beach. You're about to spend 12 hours on the beach like you typically do on a weekend. Somebody says, hey, I know you from fantasy football today. I have a quick question for you, Heath fantasy football today. I have a quick question for you, Heath Cummings. I have a PPR draft coming up. I want to know how do I win my PPR draft? You have 30 seconds to sum it up. Heath, what do you tell this gentleman? Well, he obviously knows I'm the guy who has a lot of just pre-draft strategies that I stick to.

That's right. Can tell you without even knowing what your league is like um I I will give a couple of things one focus on teams that are not terrible um just just draft teams from good offenses and even better would be draft teams from consolidated offenses offenses where they don't give a bunch of targets and carries to guys that don't matter teams obviously like the chiefs like the saints like. Teams obviously like the Chiefs, like the Saints, like the Steelers, like the Vikings in the past. How's that for two answers? That's pretty good.

By the way, this guy checked all the nail salons in South Florida but still couldn't find Jamie. That's why he ended up with Heath. That's good stuff. Those are two types of tips that we really haven't had before. Jamie, Dave, anything you want to add on how to win your PPR league? I think there's more depth at running back and receiver for obvious reasons. Those catches count more.

So running backs that are, you know, of the Theo Riddick ilk, not to use Riddick as a great example, but you know what I'm talking about, guys that are going to catch passes and that equates to more points that deepens the talent pool. So the rush to get so many running backs and wide receivers quite isn't there in a full PPR, like it is in a non PPR. So I don't mind waiting a little bit to get your third running back your third or fourth wide receiver. Um, you can take your time with those positions. And if you want to focus a little bit more on tight end and quarterback and the big time running backs, just in general, you can.

Receiver is the one that I really like to wait on a little bit in PPR. I think it's knowing your starting lineup is important because if it's a three receiver league versus a two receiver league, that's going to change things dramatically, especially if there's a flex as well. You can certainly wait on running backs in that type of format, no matter where you're picking. Obviously, if you're in the top four, you're going to lean toward one of those top four guys.

But if you have to start three receivers, it allows you to add them. You talked about the slot. You can wait on tight end. You can certainly wait on running backs and quarterbacks. But I would lean heavy a little bit more on the receiver spot. Yeah, and I would, I would lean heavy a little bit more on the receiver spot. Yeah. And I think,

you know, catch scarcity matters maybe a little bit more than position scarcity. When you're looking at like running backs and wide receivers, you know, if you have two running backs that catch a lot of passes, then okay, you might be able to wait a little bit longer on wide receiver, but 14 running,

I mentioned this all the time, 14 running backs caught 50 passes in 2017 16 running backs did it last year so if you're if you're looking at your two starting running backs in a ppr league do you think maybe we should start having a in our mind you know how many combined catches we expect from them for this season like all right i want my two starting running backs to combine for roughly 90 to 100 catches, something like that. That's a good guideline. Maybe it should be even more than that. You can draft Christian McCaffrey and Derek Henry and accomplish that. That's actually a good point because you could say, all right, look,

I have Christian McCaffrey. Now I'm going to get some wide receivers. While most people don't want Derek Henry or Sonny Michel in a PPR league, I actually can't afford to do it because I'm still going to hit my 100-catch benchmark. It's just hypothetical. I don't like this. You were talking about this during our mock draft, I think, with George's team. Right. Now he didn't have enough catches. And it didn't compute in my brain. I mean, I just think about it like if,

so if I'm up in the fifth round and there are two running backs there, I think one of them is going to score more points, but one of them is going to catch more passes. You want me to take the one that's going to catch more, but it's also funny that he's bringing this up. He, because that's exactly what George did. George took Levy on bell.

I think Derek Henry and Sony Michelle. Yeah. So he accomplished getting the receiving downs back where the guy that's going to catch presumably 80-plus passes, 70-plus passes, whatever you want to put it at. And then those other two guys, whether he rotates them in as a starter flex or just one of the other guys, can get you to whatever number you're looking for.

Well, here's the thing. What if Le'Veon Bell's not good? What if he's the bust that a lot of people think he might be? Then you're in a ton of trouble. But if you were to say right now, 16 games for every running back, he's going to be in the conversation for the leading receiver. Yeah, probably. Look, maybe I was.

And George's team turned out a lot better than I thought it would. He put together a pretty good team. He still hates you though, by the way. He hates you so much. That's fine. Every draft we do, you talk bad about him. Is that true? Yeah.

Come on. George, I love you, man. All right, so I guess don't worry about getting catches. I was just bringing that up. I'm not saying that is my strategy, but I was just bringing that up. To your point, though, it does make you feel a little bit more secure i guess if you end up with one of these high volume receiving backs that you can maybe take a chance on somebody that doesn't do that especially if it's good value so you get henry let's say round five in ppr which you know assuming

his foot is okay or you get michelle around six in that same format you know, that that's certainly a little bit more encouraging if you end up with one or two guys, maybe ahead of them that have the chance to be a hundred plus catches either by themselves, which isn't likely, but you know, two guys that can do that for you. Okay. So thank you for some PPR tips here and I'll try to read a few more emails in a bit, but let's talk about that next group

of wide receivers, guys. So I guess I'm asking you for your second tier of wide receivers. Where does it start? Like, who are the close to elite but not quite elite wide receivers on draft day? So I broke up the top tier into two parts the guys that have a chance to go in round one nuke julio davante adams obj and a ppr uh and then the rest of the guys that are going to go

in round two guys like barry kill juju michael thomas um i think antonio brown's going to go there i think mike evans is going to go there. This is PPR? It doesn't matter on which one. I just think that this is PPR. Thomas and Juju are probably... Juju for sure is a first-round pick in PPR. Some people will see it that way. Not according to every website.

Yeah. I think that the tier that you're talking about starts after the likes of of brown evans cooper back group well i was gonna say that it starts with antonio brown that's what i was thinking too brown cooks digs edelman cooper woods hilton feeling i think that's the that's the tier right yeah because i think antonio brown is the most interesting one because obviously like beckham's not in this tier I'm talking about. He's in the higher one.

Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Julio Jones. I think that for the most part, all of these guys are going to go ahead of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Adam Thielen. Yeah, and any average draft position you look at, that's the game. I think Evans should be in the elite tier. All right, so then let's start with that. I guess if you're just looking at where people are drafting, though, Brown's where it starts. Sure, so Brown and Evans.

How far away? I agree with Heath. I'd rather have Evans over Brown, but I just don't think people are going to do it that way. And they're not going to take those guys in that tier above them. But all of you listening should. But you don't have to draft that way. And they're not going to take those guys in that tier above them. But all of you listening should. But you don't have to draft that way, though. Well, if you're up at 16, you don't get a choice of coming back to... You take out October Brown.

Yeah, I mean, I'm looking at Fantasy Football Calculator. Or Kelsey that you want there. Look, I'm looking at Fantasy Football Calculator ADP right now. Antonio Brown is 20th off the board. Mike Evans, 22. So, I mean, they're pretty much... They are starting the next tier of wide receivers. Right. And Juju ends at 15, if you're looking at their PPR. Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, they're pretty much, they are starting the next tier of wide receivers. Right, and Juju ends at 15 if you're looking at their PPR.

Yeah, exactly. So, how far away are they from the elite tier? Antonio Brown and Mike Evans. And Heath, I'll let you start because you think Mike Evans is actually in that top tier. Yeah, I've got Brown about 11 or 12 points behind Evans. I've got Evans right there with Beckham and Keenan Allen. So that's my separation. And to be fair, I do think it makes sense to say that

Brown's kind of in this no man's land because he's 13 points ahead of Cooks, who I have next. And then there's seven receivers within 10 points. I think there's a clear group of seven receivers who you could look at and say, these are no doubt about it, top 15 pick in PPR. And then after that, I think Brown and Evans are not in that group. I think they're just outside of that.

And you'll look at them and you'll say, all right, these guys are more like 15 to 25, somewhere in that range. So if we talk about Mike Evans here, does he catch enough passes to be in that elite tier in PPR? Because he had 86 catches last year. His career high is 96. But there were at least 10 wide receivers, I think, with 100 catches last year. So is Mike Evans enough of a catch guy to really be in the elite tier, Heath?

I would anticipate that he's going to... We talk about all the targets available in Tampa Bay a lot whenever we talk about Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard. We probably don't talk about it enough when we talk about Mike Evans because he's got one year in his career with more than 150 targets and I'm pretty sure he was the number one receiver in fantasy that year with 96 catches

1300 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was just short of it. He was second in non-PPR he was third in PPR but he was right there. But yeah I don't know that he gets 173 targets like he did last year, but I expect his second highest target total ever, which will lead to more catches,

especially if it's like last year when it was kind of under the radar because his targets were down a little bit. He had by far his most efficient year as a wide receiver and caught 62% of his passes. His best before that was 55%. Average 11 yards per target. Right.

Yeah, but do you... What if that goes down? You know, what if the Buccaneers don't lead the NFL in passing again? Their defense is really, really bad. And Bruce Arians is their head coach. They might not, but they're going to throw... They're one of four or five teams that I would bet money on throwing it more than 600 times. We've said it so many times that Jameis could lead the NFL in passing.

It's not going to be a shock of that. So I have not drafted Antonio Brown yet. Tell me that I should. Convince me that I should draft Antonio Brown if you'd like to. Nope. I'll convince you. I think he is a fantastic third-round pick. He's not getting there. I know. That's the point. I'm trying to convince you to I think he is a fantastic third round pick. He's not getting there.

I know. That's the point. I'm trying to convince you to take him. I'm not going to try to convince you to take him. If you get him at the back end of round two, it's fine. Derek Carr's not Ben Roethlisberger, clearly, but John Gruden's track record of leaning on his number one guy is pretty tried and true, whether it's his tight end like we saw last year, because that was his best option,

but Jordy Nelson, when he took over from Mark Cooper, that first stretch was just heavily involved. It's not the same situation. He's not going to get 160 plus targets, but I think 150 is there if he's healthy. That's the thing you got to keep an eye on right now is how healthy is he. And he was not, and really for the last two years, but definitely last year, other than the touchdowns,

he was not as good as he has been throughout his career. And if you want to talk about bad defenses, Oakland's got one that can match Tampa Bay's. So plenty of opportunities for AB to put up numbers. 20 is a good spot to start to consider him, and that's what he is for our ADP, and that's what he is for fantasy football calculators. Tell me if I should take Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton.

Does it depend on scoring? In PPR, it's not particularly close for me, Allen. Agreed. I don't think it's close either way, but I would take Allen in both. Really? I mean... I might take T.Y. in non-PPR. Okay.

No chance in full PPR. I know Hilton's not a big catch guy. He had 76 last year. He was on pace for 87 catches, 1,451 yards and 7 touchdowns. I think basically you look at T.Y. Hilton and Andrew Luck and where they've been when Andrew Luck's been healthy

his last three healthy seasons you know, you basically 80-ish catches 1,400 or so yards, 6-7 touchdowns. Is that close to what you have Hilton projected for? Because that's basically what he's produced with a healthy Andrew Luck. I bet it's pretty close to what he's got him projected for.

And if we're going to talk about Eric Ebron losing target share because of all the improvements that the Colts have made on offense, you've got to talk about it for T.Y. Hilton too. I've got him at 76, 1240, and 6. It's a lot easier to take Keenan Allen over T.Y. Hilton the longer Melvin Gordon stays away in L.A. 1240 is pretty low to me. Because the last three years he's had a healthy luck.

He's had 1,345 yards, 1448, and last year 1270, but he was on pace for 1451. Yeah, I've cut his target share just a little bit. Not much, really. I've got him for 110 over 16 games. He had 120 over 14 last year. But, he was at 16.7 yards

per reception last year. I don't know that I would expect him to repeat that. He's 16 for his career. He was 15. that I would expect him to repeat that. He's 16 for his career. He was 15.9 in his last healthy year with luck. Okay. So this is T.Y. Hilton we're talking about here. More on him, I think, tomorrow. And tell me, does anybody have, I think he does, Brandon Cooks in this group. Does Brandon Cooks deserve to be drafted with T.Y. Hilton and Keenan Allen, et cetera? Yeah, I've got Brandon Cooks in this group, and I think he does. He arguably had his best year last year if it wasn't for a little bit of rotten touchdown luck. But I expect he scores seven or eight this year like he has most of his career.

And he should be right in that 1,200-yard range. Right. You're drafting him on what he's done consistently over the past it's now up to four years with brandon cook doing new orleans one in new england and then with the rams last year yep it's it's not going to be consistent production on a weekly basis but by the end of the year the numbers are going to look nice i i don't put him in the same tier i think he's just behind them because i think he's more in that. I think about the numbers that Heath projected for TY, and I think that that's what you can

just kind of put on Cooks. Okay, we have the Vikings guys in this group. Sure, I'll take both Vikings guys ahead of Cook. I'll take Cooks ahead of both Vikings guys. Me too. We have Edelman in this group? Yes. Yes, I'll take Edelman and PPR ahead of Cook. Yeah, I'll take Edelman in this group? Yes. Yes. I'll take Edelman

in PPR out of Cook too. Yeah. I'll take Edelman in non-PPR too. Then we have a real tricky one in Amari Cooper. You guys people seem pretty split on him I think. How are you feeling about Amari Cooper? Yeah, I like him. I like him. I love him. I hope they don't pay him. I think he fits perfectly

in this group. He's fine with that by the way. He doesn't want to get paid. He does. I love the way he was used last year when he went to Dallas. I know that the production was up and down during the regular season,

but the targets were there on a weekly basis. And I think he's going to be very, very good. Best year ever. Anyone that you're avoiding as we look at Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Antonio Brown,

Amari Cooper, Stefan Diggs, Julian Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, Brandon Cooks, Adam Thielen, and even Robert Woods if he's part of this. Anyone you're avoiding you just don't find yourself drafting in this range. Thielen just because of where he's going. I mean, it's in some cases crazy to me.

25th overall on fantasy football calculator and PPR, that's way too soon. I'm out on Brown and Thielen. I don't mind Brown if he falls to the right spot. And the same thing with Thielen. Thielen's so good. Jamie, let me ask you this. Let's take ADP out of it,

and let's assume that if you're drafting, you more or less have just one chance to get somebody in this range. You've got a middle of the third round pick. Middle of the second round is too early for them, except maybe Evans. And middle of the third round, you've got your pick of whoever's left. You know, so

do you find yourself, if you're sitting in that spot, let's say 30th overall, that you just there's somebody you just will not take? Do you like the other guys better is it still okay yeah okay you know what i was asking wasn't just about adp in that case you know no but but again you know if you're just looking at if you are looking at adp i can get

cooper at 30 right i just i would have them flip i'd rather have Cooper at 25 and Thielen at 30 as opposed to where it is right now. Okay. And I mentioned this before. Stefan Diggs, over his last two seasons, has had 14 games with fewer than 50 yards. Combine that with, obviously, Thielen's there, and Diggs wasn't nearly as good as Thielen the first half of the season.

And we know they want to run the ball a lot. I find myself kind of shying away from Stefan Diggs, specifically in PPR. He's kind of a touchdown guy, so in non-PPR, I like him more. This worked out well because you hated Thielen last year, and he blew up. Yeah, well, you know, the reason I hated – I loved Diggs last year, and he justified it.

I know, that's what I'm saying. Hate Diggs this year. No, I don't hate Diggs last year, and he justified it. I know, that's what I'm saying. Hate Diggs this year. No, I don't hate Diggs. No, no, just profess your hate for him. I'd rather have Edelman. I'd rather have Edelman. I think I'd rather have... Diggs versus Cooks is really tough for me.

I'd rather have Cooks. I know you would. I'd rather have Cooks than non-PPR. And non-PPR. I'll take Diggs either way. It's just hard to know what their offense is going to look like, I guess, because obviously late in the season they were not throwing the ball that much. All right, guys.

Thank you. That's our first video show. Hooray. Didn't get to your emails, but I promise I will tomorrow. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Tomorrow is going to be a real upbeat show. It's going to be called Everyone is a Bust. And I'm going to give these guys a reason why

each of at least the top 20 picks in fantasy drafts could be a bust this year and yeah we'll have a fun time with that very happy thought for Dave for Jamie for Heath I'm Adam thanks so much for listening tell your friends