Fantasy Football Today - 08/01: Dominating the Middle Rounds (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 1, 2019

Mid-round picks can be tricky and can have a huge impact on your Fantasy teams, so how should we approach them? First, a cautionary tale from 2018 (2:00) followed by our favorite mid-round picks (7:05...). We love the Quarterback ADP and we love some young WRs in this range ... Debating Cam Newton vs. Baker Mayfield (13:55). It's a tough call! And we've got news and notes (21:00) with another Ezekiel Elliott update ... We get into our mid-round philosophies (27:30). The WRs are much safer, so how should that impact your first few picks? What do you do if you start WR/WR (36:50)? Are Lamar Miller and Tevin Coleman providing great value (41:00)? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, look, the first four picks of your draft, piece of cake, those are easy.
Starting point is 00:00:23 You know what you're doing. Those are great players. The mid-round picks, that's where it gets a little tricky. That's where it gets a little stressful for some fantasy owners and where you can really make or break your draft. Welcome to Fantasy Football today. It's August 1st. The Hall of Fame game is tonight. We've got some football to talk about,
Starting point is 00:00:37 but today we're going to help you dominate the middle rounds. I am Adam Azer. Thank you so much for listening. Dave Richard, do you have a good relationship with the mid-round picks? Definitely. I got a good relationship with the mid-round picks, the mid-to-late picks, the late-round picks, the waiver-wire picks. I'm covered.
Starting point is 00:00:56 Good, good. Well, you're a friendly, gregarious guy. All the picks like you. I do get a little stressed, stressed i think after my first four picks we're talking like a 12 team league once we get outside the top 50 the tight ends are really good there but you just you've got high upside guys but you've also got a lot more downside and uh sometimes you want to play it safe and so there are just a lot of different ways to go uh you know what is your do you have a general mid-round philosophy, or does it really depend so much on what you do in the first few picks?
Starting point is 00:01:28 It's not really a crazy philosophy, Adam. I'm looking for guys who can be starters for my lineup, guys that I can draft and say, okay, when week one comes around, this is somebody who I'm going to put in my lineup and feel good about starting. You don't need brain surgery to draft a fantasy football team. It's pretty simple. You're looking for starters with your first five, six, maybe even seven rounds.
Starting point is 00:01:53 After round seven, that's where philosophies can divert a little bit and you can go in some crazy directions if you want to. All right, so don't overthink it, basically, is what you're saying. By the way, Jamie Eisenberg will be coming on very shortly here, and you can watch him and Dave and everybody on CBS Sports HQ noon Eastern Fantasy Football Today, the video show. Our show is also on video, our podcast. If you go to youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday,
Starting point is 00:02:18 you can watch some clips. And if you have CBS All Access, you can watch the full show. So this is a cautionary tale, Dave. Mid-round picks at running back are risky. And if Ben Gretsch were here, he'd be like, yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Because you've heard Ben talk about how he wants to eliminate those running backs in a big group of mid-round picks, basically, and just target high upside guys late and obviously draft some early. So I looked at ADP from last year.
Starting point is 00:02:46 In a half PPR league, the top 42 running backs. Gurley, Bell, Zeke, David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon, really good for the most part. Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook, Devante Freeman, Christian McCaffrey. And then we're now at 20th overall. Not 20th running back, just 20th overall. Jordan Howard, Jarek McKinnon, yikes.
Starting point is 00:03:10 LaShawn McCoy, oh, man, those are bad picks. But we're still not even in the middle rounds yet. We're in rounds two and three. Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Kenyon Drake. Gosh, that's some bad drafting. Alex Collins gets even worse. Jay Ajayi. And we're still not even in the middle rounds.
Starting point is 00:03:26 Now we get to round five. Okay, those were just three to four rounds of running back ADP from last year. Round five, Rashad Penny, Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, who was suspended for four games, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Sonny Michelle, Dion Lewis, Tevin Coleman, Marshawn Lynch, Karyon Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Carlos Hyde, Tariq Cohen, Marlon Mack, Jamal Williams, Isaiah Crowell, Chris Thompson, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson, CJ Anderson, Aaron Jones, and Chris Carson. There were some winners in there, but man, there were a lot of losers in there, Dave. Wow.
Starting point is 00:04:09 What a list. Yeah, a couple of the losers that stand out to me, just on a personal level, guys that I liked last year, and they didn't pan out. Alex Collins is at the top of the list. I thought Alex Collins was going to be the main bag in Baltimore. Didn't see him having a ton of competition and he fell out of favor pretty quickly there. Another guy that I liked a lot last year.
Starting point is 00:04:31 And I think it's important to point out, Adam, this is ADP as of early August, not ADP as of late August. So Ronald Jones really hadn't gotten into his own head yet about football. And, you know, he, he still had a chance basically by late August. He was, he wasn't even being drafted, but at this point people were excited about his potential and they were taking him with a top 60 pick. But another thing that I would point out here is if you go back and listen, you know, go back in time, 90 seconds on the podcast, you'll hear names in round eight or later of young running back.
Starting point is 00:05:06 Marlon Mack, Jamal William, Nick Chubb stands out. Aaron Jones stands out. Chris Carson. Chris Carson in round 10. There's no way his ADP was round 10 by late August. He was in training camp. He looked good. I think this is a good argument to lean toward younger running backs,
Starting point is 00:05:24 which makes a lot of sense. It's the trend that most of the league goes in, except for Buffalo for the most part. And I think that those are where you're going to find players who are fresher, who are healthier, and who are able to contribute at some point during the year. Might only be for a few games. Might be for half a season, like the case of Nick Chubb. So you want to keep those younger running backs in mind.
Starting point is 00:05:45 I think it's worth it. Yeah, but Nick Chubb probably wouldn't have had a big year if they didn't trade Carlos Hyde and football trades are rare. Nick Chubb was obviously a success story here, but his first seven games,
Starting point is 00:05:56 no, six games, his first six games, he did not have more than three carries in any game. So I do think, you know, that's one of the problems I have with Ben's philosophy. I actually really like
Starting point is 00:06:04 Ben's philosophy. The numbers actually really like Ben's philosophy. The numbers back it up. But if you have shallow benches, you might have to drop Nick Chubb. You know? Which happened. Yeah, of course it did. The guy I was targeting in a lot of drafts last year was Marlon Mack. So I was happy there.
Starting point is 00:06:18 But I also remember saying, man, I really like these mid-round running backs. And, you know, Kerryaryon Johnson was good. Sonny Michel was worth the wait. Carlos Hyde was okay. Tariq Cohen. I actually think like there was a stretch in that ADP that was pretty good. But like Rashad Penny, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Rex Burkhead, Jamal Williams, Isaiah Crowell, there were some really bad ones there as well.
Starting point is 00:06:46 So who is your favorite mid-round pick? And that's just the running backs. I think the point is the running backs are going to be super risky. They really are. Who's your favorite mid-round pick? And I define the mid-rounds as rounds 5 through 8 in a 12-team league, maybe rounds 5 through 9. I asked for some feedback in our Facebook group,
Starting point is 00:07:03 Fantasy Football Today on Facebook. I'll share some of that later. But who's your favorite mid-round pick if you had one? What if I didn't give you a name? What if I gave you a position? And what if I said a quarterback? Are you going by average
Starting point is 00:07:21 draft position or are you going by our analyst drafts? When I've been drafting, I've been finding great quarterback value around Are you going by average draft position, or are you going by our analyst drafts, in which, yes, you can get Aaron Rodgers in round six? When I've been drafting, I've been finding great quarterback value round six, seven, eight, whether it's been Ryan or Wentz or Cam. I even found Cam later than that in an all-analyst draft that we did on Wednesday.
Starting point is 00:07:41 That's where I'm going to start to put up the periscope for a quarterback is in the mid-rounds because I'm going to start to put up the periscope for a quarterback is in the mid rounds because I'm going to get a great starter and it's going to be somebody that's going to come at a really good value. And it's, it's, it's almost the definition of what you want from a mid round, a mid round pick. And there's other players that I like too, that I can find in the middle rounds. But to me, I think a quarterback that's's that's going to be the real sweet spot for one in in drafts yeah no i i mean i agree even if you look at adp you know matt ryan's going 59th overall uh drew breeze 73rd jared goff 76 and in that's on cbs and fantasy football calculator
Starting point is 00:08:23 baker mayfield's a sixth round pick he's 69th overall matt ryan is a seventh round pick that's on CBS. In Fantasy Football Calculator, Baker Mayfield's a sixth-round pick. He's 69th overall. Matt Ryan is a seventh-round pick. That's in half PPR average draft position, so that's a good one. I think a lot of people are going to be looking at the next three tight ends. If they don't get one of the first three,
Starting point is 00:08:36 they're going to be looking at Evan Ingram, O.J. Howard, and Hunter Henry. My favorite mid-round pick is Dante Pettis, and look, I'm not saying I like Dante Pettis better than Calvin Ridley because I do want to take a lot of Calvin Ridley. But obviously, we're talking a lot earlier for Ridley. Dante Pettis going 70th overall. I think he's got a lot of potential.
Starting point is 00:08:58 I do see a lot of downside. Jimmy Garoppolo appears to be someone... It's early. It's hard to say. He's only started nine games for San Francisco. It looks like he spreads the ball around a little bit. He had a nice connection with Marquise Goodwin at the end of the 2017 season. I think it was eight games he started, by the way.
Starting point is 00:09:20 But I've really liked Pettis. I'm going to be pretty invested, I think, in this 49ers offense, and that's probably my favorite mid-round pick. Yeah, I like Pettis too, and I get where you're coming from on that. He could get banged up a little bit. He's not a really thick dude, but when I watch him play, I'm reminded of Gumby because he can just kind of twist
Starting point is 00:09:43 and contort his body to make tough catches, get away from defenders. And I think he's going to be a big yards after the catch guy. And I think he's going to end up playing on the outside a lot more than people think. 49ers seem to have struggled with Trent Taylor. He's healthy this year and he's been playing in the slot. Not to say that they won't mix and match and move Pettis around, but I think he's their best wide receiver right he's not their best option in the passing and that's going to be Kittle
Starting point is 00:10:10 but he's he's going to be right up there and if you're talking about round six for Dante Pettis especially if he's your third receiver I can't I can't fight you on that I think I think he's got a shot at a thousand yards year. Did I hear a little Jamie Eisenberg in there? You did. Hey, Jamie. The Jamie's on. Sorry, you don't have a cool theme song. Hey, who's your favorite?
Starting point is 00:10:36 No, we need a Jamie theme song. Who's your favorite mid-round pick? Curtis Samuel. Is he mid or late? Maybe you've heard me say that. No, he's not. Well, I guess he's probably... Well, what round would you love to take him in? I'd take him in round eight.
Starting point is 00:10:51 That's a mid-round pick if you ask me. But that's not where he's... But that's where you like to take him. He's your mid-round pick. That's your decision to make. And I don't disagree with it at all. Yeah, he's going in the hundreds. So, anyone else? to make and I don't disagree with it at all. Yeah, he's going in the hundreds so
Starting point is 00:11:05 anyone else? Are we still on the Geronimo Allison train? I like Samuel better so I would take him but I think another one just similar to what you're talking about with Pettis is Christian Kirk who projects to hopefully be the best receiver for the
Starting point is 00:11:24 Cardinals. We'll see if that's the case. But at least going into the season right now, that's the guy. Who do you guys like better, Pettis or Kirk? Because for me, it's kind of easy. For me, it's Pettis without a question. Right now, Pettis. But I see Kirk in most industry drafts go ahead of Pettis.
Starting point is 00:11:45 That's really interesting. I see a lot more passing yards in the San Francisco offense than the Arizona offense. I wouldn't be surprised if Larry Fitzgerald... I don't know if I agree with that, though. Yeah, well, look, the Arizona offense is pretty hard to project, I'd say. Dave, you want to weigh in Pettis versus Kirk? I've got Pettis ranked higher, uh,
Starting point is 00:12:06 non PPR. I think it's closer in full PPR. I, I think Kirk is in a good spot. I don't know if he's got a shot at a thousand yards this year. Uh, I think there's going to be a lot of receivers involved in Arizona. I've,
Starting point is 00:12:17 I've been slowly making the move with Larry Fitzgerald up my rankings, believe it or not. I think he's going to have a pretty good role. I know we're not hearing a lot about Andy Isabella. I think he's going to have a pretty good role. I know we're not hearing a lot about Andy Isabella. I think he's going to have a good role. We are hearing a lot about Keyshawn Johnson. He'll take away. I think Kirk will be the best one of the bunch,
Starting point is 00:12:32 but I think Pettis has a little bit more upside. All right, so we're going to talk more about mid-round picks later on in the show. What do you do if you start running back, running back? What do you do if you start wide receiver, wide receiver? What do you do if you miss out on one of those three tight ends? Or if you take a quarterback early, how does that change your mid round strategy and get some of that Facebook
Starting point is 00:12:52 feedback as well? Today's sponsor is FanDuel. Super fun. Go to FanDuel.com slash FFT and sign up and get a $5 bonus with your first deposit. But more than that, just like get on there and you start playing on FanDuel. They have preseason football, and I'm going to enjoy
Starting point is 00:13:08 the hell out of FanDuel this year. It's awesome. FanDuel.com slash FFT. Tonight on CBS Sports HQ, before the Hall of Fame game, 7 to 8 p.m. Eastern, we're going to be talking fantasy. So how do you watch HQ? You download the CBS Sports app, or you can go to CBSSportsHQ.com.
Starting point is 00:13:24 Download the CBS Sports app, though. I've got it on my Roku. So any connected device, smart TV, whatever, get the CBS Sports app. Watch HQ. It's free, 24-7 streaming sports coverage. It's kind of ahead of its time. It's pretty awesome. I think you're going to love it.
Starting point is 00:13:41 And sign up for our leagues at CBSSports.com. Our commissioner product is terrific. I think you're going to love it. And sign up for our leagues at cbssports.com slash FFT. Our commissioner product is terrific. I think you're really going to enjoy that. And again, if you want to watch our show on YouTube or clips of our show, youtube.com slash fantasy football today. All right, here's something. Hey, real quick, do this a lot with the baseball podcast. I'll transfer it over to the football podcast. So we'll talk about this for about a minute. Hey, real quick, tell me why I should not be drafting Cam Newton ahead of Baker Mayfield, because I kind of feel like I should be. I'm almost there with you.
Starting point is 00:14:14 I have Cam now six behind Baker at five. If Cam is going to run to the same level that he does when he's right, then he's going to be better than Baker Mayfield. You know, you just look at what he was, the way he was playing last year. We've talked about this a lot. It may have been, you know, one of his better passing seasons that we've seen in the first eight games when they were six and two and he was, you know, looking like a potential MVP candidate.
Starting point is 00:14:42 And then the shoulder happened and he fell apart. The whole team fell apart. But if his shoulder's right and he's running, just some ifs, you know, that's the problem with him. But I think this is the best receiving core he's ever had as a group if Greg Olson stays healthy. I like him a lot. You know, I think he's just presented
Starting point is 00:14:57 such great value on draft day so far. That's going to change as the reports continue to come out that he's, you know, 100%. But I'm almost there with you, Adam, that I'd rather have Cam than Baker. Right now I have, like I said, back-to-back. I'll take Baker. I think he's got more upside. I think he's got the chance to have more touchdowns, certainly more yards. I know that Baker didn't have 4,000 passing yards last year.
Starting point is 00:15:18 He didn't play in 16 games. I'm confident that he can play in 16 games compared to Cam, and I think that he's got a chance at, goodness, 4,400 yards, 4,500 yards, 30 touchdowns. I don't know if I'm going to buy into Cam Newton being as prolific as a rusher as he's been in the past. Last year, four touchdowns in however many games he played in, 13 games on the ground.
Starting point is 00:15:41 14 games. 14 games. Yeah. But he stopped running late in the year with the shoulder injury yeah yeah and the thing is the thing sorry two years ago or i think it's 2016 cam had a concussion early in the season he missed one game i think it was week five after that he barely ran like he just and then you go into next year and you're thinking well i don't know if cam newton's gonna run he he didn't run after the concussion last season,
Starting point is 00:16:06 and then he had a huge rushing year. So I just think it's in his nature, and I do think... Yes. If Cam Newton... I just did the math while we were talking. If Cam Newton rushes for 300 more yards than Baker Mayfield, and I'd actually take the over, but if he rushes for 300 more yards than Baker Mayfield, Baker would have to pass for 800 more yards than Cam Newton to make up for that. And then you start talking about touchdowns. Baker, I would guess, would have the edge in total
Starting point is 00:16:34 touchdowns. But if you're saying 4,400 yards, that's probably going to be about 500 more than Cam Newton. He's pretty consistently around 38, 3,900 per 16 games, I think. And he had his, he was a great passer last year. So I, I almost feel like Baker Mayfield has to either have like a 35 touchdown
Starting point is 00:16:55 season, or he has to throw for like 4,800 yards or cams going to be better than him. I don't know. I'm getting really excited about Cam Newton is basically, basically what it's got. Yeah, no, I, I, I see what you're saying. And really excited about Cam Newton is basically what's going on. I see what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:17:07 The other part of it is, Baker was a good fantasy quarterback last year when Freddie Kitchens took over. He wasn't a monster fantasy quarterback. It's like I almost feel like it's so interesting because I don't think we're going to get the best
Starting point is 00:17:23 of... They're not scoring 50 points a game. They're not going to become the best of... They're not scoring 50 points a game. They're not going to become the Rams or the Chiefs from a year ago. They'll probably be in that second group of offensive production teams. I think they could be a top 10 scoring offense, but
Starting point is 00:17:37 to say we're going to get this unbelievable production from Nick Chubb, unbelievable production from Baker and the receivers, it just wasn't the case last year with how Freddie Kitchens was calling plays. Remember, Heath talks about this a lot, that it was basically they were winning games with their run game, and then Baker was getting like 21, 22, 23 points, and he was good. He just wasn't like this superstar fantasy quarterback. So I almost feel like the ceiling is higher for Cam
Starting point is 00:18:06 if that stays the same. Now, granted, you throw Odell Beckham in the mix and that changes things, and I get it, but something's going to suffer, whether it's the run game or necessarily Baker getting to this ceiling of being a top five quarterback. If it is this close between the quarterbacks, and I think it is close,
Starting point is 00:18:27 I'm going to veer toward the one I can draft later. And based on ADP, that's Cam. But drafting and ranking, this is more conversation for what we do as opposed to what the listener does. For drafting these guys and how you're valuing them, yes, you wait on the quarterback. Again, we'll say that time and time again.
Starting point is 00:18:47 Cam's ADP is going to rise, again, as the shoulder reports are fine. But who you evaluate higher, I'm starting to lean more and more toward Cam. All right, last question. Four point per passing touchdown lead, Cam or Baker? Cam toward Cam. All right, last question. Four point per passing touchdown lead, Cam or Baker? Cam. Baker. All right, all right. And Baker will run a little bit.
Starting point is 00:19:11 You know, I don't think Baker's not going to run. But he's not going to run for four or five touchdowns. Might. I mean, Breeze did. He had like 23 rushing touchdowns in college. But we'll talk about this on Monday when we do our quarterback preview. Rushing yards are important for quarterbacks, and I think of the elite guys, Matt Ryan will have the fewest.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Baker Mayfield will probably have the second fewest. So it's just something to keep in mind. Obviously, he's also got Odell Beckhoven, Jarvis Landry, and David DiGioco, et cetera. We'll take a quick break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, we've got some news and notes for you, some offensive line notes, an Ezekiel Elliott report, a Tariq Cohen report, a Christian McCaffrey report, and then we'll get into mid-round picks.
Starting point is 00:19:56 And we'll talk a little bit about half PPR and some difficult decisions that I faced and that I think a lot of people will face in the half PPR draft we did yesterday. That's up next on FFT. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action.
Starting point is 00:20:33 Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for? Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. News and notes for you here. Some offensive line items.
Starting point is 00:21:06 The Redskins signed Donald Penn. He wants to play left tackle. That is a good indication that things are not really close to resolving themselves with the Trent Williams situation. He could be traded. That's going to be a big downgrade at left tackle
Starting point is 00:21:16 if they don't get Williams back. Buffalo Center, Mitch... Patriots. Patriots, yeah. They don't need that help. Mitch Morse, Buffalo Center. He's in the concussion protocol. He signed a four-year, $44.5 million deal.
Starting point is 00:21:30 I believe he is the highest-paid center. He is good, and they need him. I don't know if he's the highest-paid center. Fact check that for me, somebody. Atlanta rookie offensive tackle Caleb McGarry is going to have a heart procedure, which he's had before. Last time he had it was in college. He missed six to eight weeks. So they took two offensive linemen in the first round in
Starting point is 00:21:49 Atlanta. I don't know that McGarry was going to be a starter right out of the gate, but we hope he's all right and a little bit of a setback for him. Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott are not close to an extension, according to Jane Slater of NFL Network. We've been pretty nonchalant about it. I took Zeke second overall in a draft yesterday. It was a mock draft, so that was a little easier to swallow. But, yeah, getting a little nervous? August 6th. August 6th.
Starting point is 00:22:15 Okay, we'll keep saying that. And what happens if he doesn't report by August 6th? Well, there's two things. One, August 6th is the day that he would lose his service time if they do not reach a new contract agreement for his impending free agency down the road. However, as was pointed out to me yesterday, Aaron Donald did the same thing.
Starting point is 00:22:33 He still got his contract detention. So I still think you can look at that day as... It's a pressure point. The panic button. But right now, I wouldn't panic. As we saw, Michael Thomas got his deal. Hopefully, the same thing happens. And maybe the biggest news of all, Adam,
Starting point is 00:22:49 Mitch Morse is the highest paid center in football. Is he? Because his cap hit third behind Alex Mack and Travis Frederick. Over the cap has him as the highest paid center. I feel vindicated. Use that in your fantasy drafting. Doubting me. Acer, you don't know anything about Mitch Morse.
Starting point is 00:23:07 Yeah, I do. Tariq Cohen may see a reduction in touches, according to Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune. Dave tells me that Brad Biggs is a terrific beat writer. Yes. Yeah. All right, so Tariq Cohen may see his touches go down. Last year, he had 170 touches.
Starting point is 00:23:23 He was 17th in non-PPR. He was like 13th or so in half PPR. He was 11th in full PPR. Meanwhile, Ron Rivera said, Carolina does not want to reduce Christian McCaffrey's touches. They just want to reduce his snaps. McCaffrey had 326 touches last year. And he was the number three running back in non-PPR, number one in PPR.
Starting point is 00:23:45 Baker Mayfield is mean to his wide receiver. He's all his receivers. Do you think there's a possibility of like Baker Mayfield just being a little bit too in your face? Kind of blowing up a little bit? Yes.
Starting point is 00:24:01 He's got to back it up. He does. He did last year. He's got to do it again. If he backs it up this year, none of his teammates will be up for that. Sterling Shepard participated in live drills. He's been cleared to participate in live drills. Seems like he's going to be ready for week one.
Starting point is 00:24:17 Broken finger. Good. How good do you think he's going to be the first four weeks? Are we talking like number two wide receiver must start category for Sterling Shepard? Borderline. It's possible. You're not going to draft him that way.
Starting point is 00:24:33 He is what he's been for me all along, which is one of the best PPR bench receivers you can find. How about this? How about this? If you go and you get A.J. Green, you can wait a couple rounds and pick up Sterling Shepard, and you're going to start Shepard out of A.J. Green for a couple weeks. It's not a great schedule.
Starting point is 00:24:51 At Dallas, Buffalo, at Tampa Bay should be good, and then Washington in week four. It's not great just for a number one receiver against those teams. All right. I think we're pretty much done. Paris Campbell has a hamstring injury. Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams have hamstring injuries. So Dexter Williams has been getting some work there
Starting point is 00:25:11 for the Packers. He's a sixth-round pick, a rookie. You ready for the Colt injury report from today? Who's not practicing? Why don't you just tell us who is practicing? No Andrew Luck, no Paris Campbell, no Jack Doyle, no Eric Ebron, no Jordan Wilkins.
Starting point is 00:25:26 Get ready for Marlon Mack setting the record for carries in a season. Yes, and maybe he'll even throw some. I did hear a radio interview with Dr. David Chow, pro football doc on Twitter, who a lot of people like to follow for injury information because he does a great job. He said,
Starting point is 00:25:42 don't worry about Luck, a little bit more concerned about Henry. Okay, interesting. He does a great job. He said, don't worry about luck. A little bit more concerned about Henry. Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry. Okay, interesting. Paris Campbell. If you look at the time frame for both guys. Yeah, Paris Campbell with the hamstring injury.
Starting point is 00:25:51 We'll keep an eye on that. But hopefully, look, it's August 1st. Jordan Reed says his feet are much stronger than last year. He says he's more explosive than last year. And I'm happy to hear him say that because really, I don't trust my eye for NFL talent. I always say I'm not a scout, but I did watch Jordan Reed and say, man, he just doesn't look like he's got it anymore. And yeah, I feel like I was probably right, but he acknowledged it.
Starting point is 00:26:17 So hopefully better days are ahead. And I guess there could be some Jordan Reed momentum. Jordan Reed. Let's see. Jordan Reed. Let's see. Jordan Reed or Mark Andrews. He's in that Vance McDonald, Delaney Walker, Mark Andrews group. He's actually becoming a – He's a top 12 pick.
Starting point is 00:26:38 Yeah. He's an appealing late round tight end. All right. Well, you tell me he's in that group, but is he ahead of the pack with McDonald and Delaney? I still have McDonald. Right now I have McDonald, Delaney, Reed. I may switch that depending on how the Steelers use McDonald.
Starting point is 00:26:52 And I've got McDonald at the top of the list, but I still have Austin Hooper and Mark Andrews ahead of Reed. Hooper? Reed one notch ahead of Walker. That's one that can change if Walker continues to practice incident free especially if Derrick Henry continues to miss time beyond the two weeks I do want to point out the schedule for Washington is brutal to begin the year at Philly versus Dallas versus Chicago those are three teams that are pretty good at taking away the tight end and And then they get the Giants, which is a two-touchdown day for good old Jordan Reed.
Starting point is 00:27:27 Okay. They still win week one. Yeah. All right, so let's talk mid-round philosophies here. If you miss on a top three tight end, your mid-round plan, how important is it then to get one of the next three? I don't know if important is the right word. I think getting one at a value that you're comfortable with is the right term. It's not a must. It's not a certainty. If you feel
Starting point is 00:27:54 like you're reaching for Ingram or Howard or Hunter Henry's in that group too, a lot of people really, really like him. If it's too much of a reach for you, it's just too rich for your blood, then don't do it. You will be able to find a tight end later on that you can at least start the season with. I feel like tight end is broken up into like four parts. You have the first three guys that'll go in the second round. You have the next three guys that will go in rounds four and five of Ingram, Howard, and Henry. And then there's the two guys after that that nobody seems to want in Cook and Ebron. And I get it.
Starting point is 00:28:30 Cook's a little bit better, but Ebron is quickly falling. And then it's almost how you play the waiting game with Njoku as the lead of the next group, followed by the guys that we just talked about in McDonald, Reed, and Walker. I think Andrews is still a late-round pick. Hooper's continuing to be a late-round pick.
Starting point is 00:28:52 And then that's kind of the way that the tight ends are going to get drafted. You may see somebody take a flyer on Fant. You may see somebody take a flyer on Hawkinson. You may see, we saw it in that analyst draft, somebody took Jimmy Graham with the hope that maybe he turns back the clock a little bit. But it's very segmented with the first six guys in the first five rounds. And then it's, okay, who's going to be the first one to take one of those two guys of Cook and Ebron? And then it's kind of the play the waiting game.
Starting point is 00:29:17 It was interesting. You'll see when we have it at the end of the week, we just did our second version of the pick-by-pick series where Dave and I and i and heath and ben gretch uh we each take three teams and and draft in a different draft slot and that was almost exactly how it played out where the first five got the first six guys went in the first five rounds and then it was okay let's just wait and wait and wait and then cook cook is starting to sort of starting to distance himself a little bit from ebron, which is good. I took Ebron in round 10. I'm fine with that if I get him in double-digit rounds.
Starting point is 00:29:48 And then it was, okay, who's next? And so Njoku was next, which I think is going to happen. And then it's, okay, McDonald typically has been the 10th guy. And then you see how the tumble effect goes from there. Look, quarterback ADP, and I promise this is also about tight ends, quarterback ADP might not be the most reliable thing because we get emails all the time. Well, in my leagues, the quarterbacks go super early.
Starting point is 00:30:11 It just seems like that's sort of volatile in terms of if there's one position in the ADP that depends league to league, it's probably quarterback. But when you're talking about tight end and quarterback, you've got a chance. If you go running back, running back, receiver, receiver with your first four picks, not just a chance, but you can absolutely do this in rounds five and six, five and seven, six and seven, something like that. And let's just say in rounds five, six and seven, you can come away with tight end four through six, let's say OJ Howard, and then maybe Baker Mayfield or Cam Newton or something like that. I think you're going to see Howard and Ingram.
Starting point is 00:30:48 Ingram should move ahead of Howard in ADP. That hasn't been the case so far. But Howard and Ingram are going to be fourth-round pick. Oh, man, I don't know if I agree with that. I'm telling you. I'm fine with it for Ingram. I'm not seeing that, though. It wasn't the case yesterday when we did our analyst draft, was it?
Starting point is 00:31:05 I can check. It may have the case yesterday when we did our analyst draft, was it? I can check. It may have been, but I never see. I see Evan Ingram sometimes at the end of round four, but then his ADP right now on Fantasy Football Calculator is 63rd. He's behind O.J. Howard, who's 57th. Yeah, I'm telling you, you're going to see it. You think so? I see it in the analyst drafts we do.
Starting point is 00:31:24 Not necessarily on. Then you're going to see it. I think so. I see it in the analyst drafts we do. Not necessarily on... Then you're taking them... Go ahead. Evan Ingram went 44th overall in a half PPR to Heath Cummings. OJ Howard went 50th overall to Adam Asier. Or as I was called when I graduated college, Adam Scott Easier, which was really stupid when I got my diploma. Yeah, so...
Starting point is 00:31:50 From what school? It just tells you the level of educators, all right? And it's all my own fault because I tried to write it out for them phonetically and it didn't work. Easier. Yeah, all right. So anyway, I still think there's a chance
Starting point is 00:32:02 that you can, in rounds five and six, five and seven, you could end up with running back, running back, receiver, receiver, and then top six tight end, top six quarterback, which is exactly what I did in the analyst draft we did yesterday of Aaron Rodgers and O.J. Howard. And I think you could feel really good about that as a mid-round strategy. It will depend on where quarterbacks go in your drafts. But let's say it's not Aaron Rodgers.
Starting point is 00:32:24 Let's say it's Cam Newton and OJ Howard. I think that's a pretty solid way to start your team. Okay, so let's say you only draft one wide receiver with your first four or five picks.
Starting point is 00:32:40 We just talked about at the top of the show how bad the mid-round running backs were last year based on ADP, how many busts there were. Do you feel like wide receiver is a better position to chase in the middle rounds? And if so, who are you targeting? It's definitely a better position. I mean, you're seeing Pettis and Kirk and D.D. Westbrook.
Starting point is 00:33:04 If you want the touchdown guys of Fuller and Williams, the guys I think that a lot of people tend to avoid, but they'll be very good in terms of their targets of Jeffrey and Allen Robinson. The high upside guys. Talk about those two guys. I feel like they're great fallbacks. Those guys aren't round five.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Those guys are more like round seven, round eight. No, they're round six. Look at ADP. Allen Robinson's ADP is 88. Look, it's going to depend on the draft, right? It's 90th. It's going to depend on the draft. They're going to be in that 6 to 8 range. But I think they're great.
Starting point is 00:33:34 I really think they're great fallbacks. I like Jeffrey more. I don't know how you guys feel. But if you're just a little weak at wide receiver, and maybe this is your wide receiver 3 or wide receiver 2, and you're loaded at other positions, talk about these veterans that don't get the respect.
Starting point is 00:33:49 It's just a matter of, you know, they're still their number one guys in their respective teams, you know, so maybe Anthony Miller moves ahead of Robinson this year, which could be the case, but, you know, I still would expect him to, you know, lead the team in targets by whatever, you know, increments you want to put it at. And
Starting point is 00:34:03 then Jeffrey, the same thing. Obviously, there's a lot of mouths to feed in this Philadelphia offense. I saw a report yesterday. I forget which Philadelphia Eagles beat writer tweeted it out, but that through the first, or maybe it had to be yesterday's practice, or two days ago, Wentz had basically targeted Jeffrey, Jackson, and Aguilar
Starting point is 00:34:24 with 10 targets, and Ertz and Goddard with like nine. So he's just spreading the ball around to maybe a level we haven't seen before because he has so many targets to feed. But I still expect Jeffrey, again, same thing. Whether it's by one target or 50, he's going to lead the team in targets. Maybe not. Maybe they're receiving court targets.
Starting point is 00:34:44 Ertz will lead them in targets. But still. Maybe they're receiving court targets or to lead them in targets, but still to a point where you should feel comfortable with those guys as at least number three receivers. And like you said, Adam, if you do go one wide receiver through your first five picks, it's not a bad fallback option to know you're getting Carson Wentz, top guy, or Trubisky, top guy.
Starting point is 00:35:01 Okay. So wide receivers are good in the middle rounds. Definitely some options there. Will Fuller is one that really has me so conflicted because he ordinarily, like last year he was my guy. Loved Will Fuller. And I think he became a more complete player last year.
Starting point is 00:35:18 He wasn't just a deep ball guy. He became a very reliable wide receiver. It's hard to ignore how bad he was and how uninvolved he was in the four games he played with both DeAndre Hopkins and Kiki QT. But I always say this. I'm going to say this again
Starting point is 00:35:33 when we do the wide receiver preview. Those are four games against pretty tough matchups. He makes Deshaun Watson so much better and was really outperforming his ADP last season. His ADP right now, Will Fuller is around 80th overall. How do you feel about him? Not the number one option compared to Alshon Jeffrey and Alan Robinson. So earlier in the podcast, we talked about how you're looking for a starter with one of your first five picks. Those early round picks, you want to lock up somebody that you can call reliable for the majority of the season.
Starting point is 00:36:10 We can't say that about Will Fuller, but if Will Fuller's available in round seven, to me, round seven is where I'm more willing to loosen my tie, undo the top button on my shirt, and say, all right, let's go crazy, people. Let's take some chances. And Will Fuller, to me, just has glorious upside
Starting point is 00:36:30 every time he's on the field. The type of boom or bust potential that can lead you to a victory. And when he's not on the field and when he's hurt, you know that you can't use him, and that might be for half the season. But I'm comfortable with that value in round seven on will fuller all right so let's transition from wide receivers to running backs if you start receiver receiver when is the latest that you should be looking for your first running back i guess it depends on three receiver league versus the receiver league how many teams in the league
Starting point is 00:37:02 also matter well yeah this is that's a good point because i'm i'm sort of basing all of this on 12 team leagues i kind of feel like 10 team leagues are just i don't know that you have to worry so much about position scarcity you kind of yeah i mean i would always go by a 12 team league but you know three receiver versus two receiver because you know if you're still getting in that round three spot where you know you're talking about and depending where you pick also but you know it's PPR, half PPR, we have Edelman and Cooks and Robert Woods and Thielen and those guys that will probably end up scoring more points than the running backs that'll be there in round three
Starting point is 00:37:39 of Freeman and Jacobs and Marlon Mack and those guys. It's just a matter, I think matter of what your comfort level is on passing on those running backs and then ending up with a group of... Just to give you an example, in our pick-by-pick, I picked 12th, and this is non-PPR. I went just because of the
Starting point is 00:37:58 way I wanted to try it and how it worked out. This is a three-receiver league, so I started Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill, and then I took Edelman in the third round, and on the turn, I-receiver league. So I started Juju Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill, and then I took Edelman in the third round, and on the turn, I took Melvin Gordon. So I started three receivers, and then a running back situation that's a little bit questionable.
Starting point is 00:38:11 But with my next four picks, I went running back, running back, running back, running back, and that was David Montgomery was in that group. And then I think I may have taken both Eagles running back. I thought maybe it was somebody else better in there. You took...
Starting point is 00:38:25 I think I went five running backs in a row. There was somebody else ahead of... You took Gordon, Montgomery, Kenyon Drake, Jordan Howard, and Miles Sandry. It's a hell of a haul. Right, with those three receivers. I have those starters locked in. That's non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:38:40 You can probably get away with something similar in PPR because I think Edelman will be there at the end of the third. It's just knowing that the mid-round group of running backs, I'd throw Tevin Coleman in that range. I would say that depending on Gordon's holdout, if you want to pass on Gordon, Eckler may creep
Starting point is 00:38:59 himself into that range too of the 4-5 swing. It's just a matter of, you know, what your, what your comfort level is. And I think it's a, it's a good, it's a good group. You know, Heath is doing something similar with that actual live draft that he's doing right now. I think Chris Towers, you know, you'll see the results of this analyst draft. He went zero RB with, I don't remember the receivers he took, but he took three receivers. I think maybe a tight end and Deshaun Watson with his first five picks. So you can get, you can get away with it. You know, it's just a matter of,
Starting point is 00:39:28 you got to hit on a couple of these backs. And if you do, your team's going to be in great shape. And, you know, we talked about this with the auction the other day, Adam, you know, if you get a good core, you're going to supplement that core. And if you're, you know, in a PPR league with those stud wide receivers and you have three of them, or in some cases, four of them or great tight end, and you know, that, that has you covered, you know, just, you know, has you covered. Just hope you strike gold with at least one of those running backs and maybe some silver with a couple other guys. Heath's going to talk about 0RB tomorrow. He loves the 0RB team that he just drafted.
Starting point is 00:39:54 He wrote about it, so he'll be back on the show tomorrow. The Heath will be on, and we will talk about that. Three wide receivers changes a lot, particularly if it's three wide receivers and a flex. The draft we did yesterday, half PPR receiver flex two running backs i mean you start to see james white going 71st overall sony michelle 72nd overall and then after that chris carson lamar miller darius geis rashad penny royce freeman jordan howard so i think this conversation we're having Lamar Miller, Darius Geis, Rashad Penny, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard. So I think this conversation we're having,
Starting point is 00:40:28 oh, the wide receivers are so much better in the middle rounds. In a three-receiver league, particularly one with a flex, and particularly any type of PBR scoring, right, which is common formats, you know, the running backs are going to get pushed down and they're going to look a little bit better in the middle rounds. The wide receiver is going to be pushed up. I mean, that's common sense. You sort of have to
Starting point is 00:40:45 adjust to your roster settings. Okay. Lamar Miller and Tevin Coleman, they seem to go near each other in most drafts. They seem to go after most of the starting running backs. The true starting running backs are off the board. Are Lamar Miller and Tevin Coleman obvious value picks who you can plug in your lineup if you're weak at running back or are they boring mid-round picks that you should completely skip because they don't have upside if you need a starting running back they will both fit the bill I happen to think that Tevin Coleman's got potential to be a better than Lamar Miller and be better than people expect I love the fit in San Francisco
Starting point is 00:41:27 reuniting with Kyle Shanahan. I think that he's the best do it all back that they have. I think McKinnon, when he's healthy, he's a passing down specialist. I think Brita is a really good backup for both McKinnon and Coleman. I'm not going to be surprised when Tevin Coleman begins the year playing moderately well. I think the offensive line is pretty good in San Francisco and I could see him having another top 24, maybe even a top 20 type season. So he's, he's absolutely somebody that I'm targeting with a round five, round six type of selection. I'd much rather have Tevin Coleman than Lamar Miller. I just think, you know, again, if I know there's there's as a group, a better group in San Francisco, because if McKinnon is right and what we saw from Brita last year, they can push Tevin Coleman. And, you know,
Starting point is 00:42:15 what you're hearing out of San Francisco is they want to potentially use all three guys. But if Deontay Foreman is right, he should take Lamar Miller off the field more so than we've seen. And we've seen Bill O'Brien not afraid to take Lamar Miller off the field more so than we've seen. And we've seen Bill O'Brien not afraid to take Lamar Miller off the field for Alfred Blue. You know, there were some games over the last couple of seasons where he's done that. So I just think there's a there's a higher ceiling. You know, you're talking about what Kyle Shanahan has done with his backs as an offensive coordinator, as a head coach. It just feels like Coleman's ceiling should be a lot better. Now, the floor is probably better for Lamar Miller,
Starting point is 00:42:49 but when you're talking about this range as really number three running backs, shoot for the ceiling. Again, it depends on maybe how you build your team, but if you give me the option of both those guys at the same price tag, I'll take Tevin Coleman 10 out of 10. Trivia. Oh, yeah, go ahead. How many, this is non-PPR,
Starting point is 00:43:09 how many games over 11 fantasy points did Lamar Miller have last year? Four. Played 14 games. Three. What format? Non-PPR. PPR was a little bit better just because catches. And Coleman had one, two, three,
Starting point is 00:43:31 but he was forced into a timeshare in Atlanta. Maybe you could say the same thing in San Francisco. I still think that he'll be the better player. And Miller has almost 1,400 career touches. That worries me too. He's not a young buck anymore. I agree with Jamie. I think that Deontay Foreman should have a pretty big grip
Starting point is 00:43:48 on at least a split in Houston this year. All right, but I'm just going to give this weird stat again. Over the last three seasons with the Texans, Lamar Miller has the fourth most rush attempts, the fifth most rushing yards, and the 24th most rushing touchdowns. 22nd most if you count only running backs. It's very strange.
Starting point is 00:44:07 It has really lowered his value. He just doesn't score very often, and that could be a fluky thing. But yeah, no, I'm not disagreeing with you guys at all. I'd much rather have Devin Coleman. All right, so here's some Facebook feedback we got about mid-round picks. A lot of love for Ben Gretchen's strategy
Starting point is 00:44:23 of skipping over the running backs. I think we've made a pretty compelling case of why receivers are better in the mid-round picks a lot of love for ben gretchen's strategy of skipping over the running backs i think we've made a pretty compelling case of why receivers are better in the mid-rounds than running backs are jesse says seems deeper at wide receiver if possible i try to emphasize stud running back early on and yeah i mean we keep saying that but but then again i really can't disagree with a wide receiver wide receiver strategy with a late pick right so how do those two how do those two philosophies intersect comes down to how you feel about running back
Starting point is 00:44:51 and how comfortable you are are you more comfortable with the running backs that are in the mid round range that we talked about no of course nobody is I mean that's kind of the point I mean then that's why you've got to put a little bit more pressure on yourself to take those running backs early on. Does this mean you should not go receiver-receiver?
Starting point is 00:45:09 Or receiver-tight end? If you're really scared off by the names that we've talked about at running back. You. I want to know what you would do. No, I'm taking at least one running back. You know me. I like running back. I think that they're important to take chances on. I'm going to take one with my first three picks pretty much every single draft.
Starting point is 00:45:26 Maybe the happy medium is receiver, receiver. We're talking late picks, because if you have an early pick, your top four pick, you're taking a running pick. I think it's more actually the mid-round picks. I agree. You've got a decision to make there, too. That's where it is, especially if it's non-PPR.
Starting point is 00:45:41 PPR, it's a little bit easier. You say you're taking one of those receivers, but it comes down to, would you be comfortable enough to, you know, would you be comfortable enough to pass on Hopkins, Adams, Julio, Juju, Michael Thomas, you know, maybe Beckham, maybe Tyreek Hill, or David Johnson, James Conner, Le'Veon Bell, because those are probably going to be the next three guys off the board,
Starting point is 00:46:05 and what the uncertainty is of those three guys. I guess what I was trying to say was like... The receivers feel a lot more safer. The happy medium between the two strategies, if you want to go receiver-receiver, is you take running back-running back with your next two picks and make sure you're not too reliant on the mid-round running backs who aren't very good, so you could go with...
Starting point is 00:46:22 Well, who are very risky, I should say. So you could go with Julio Jones in round one and maybe Odell Beckham in round two. You know, Tyreek Hill in round two. Round three and four, Devante Freeman
Starting point is 00:46:35 and Josh Jacobs. Maybe you could do a little bit better than that. Maybe it's Aaron Jones. The group that you're seeing in round three is, you mentioned it, it's going to be
Starting point is 00:46:43 Devante Freeman, Jacobs, Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones. That might be about it. Derek Henry's not in that group anymore. No. And Phillip Lindsay isn't in that group anymore. No. David Montgomery
Starting point is 00:46:58 is only going to get into that group if he looks great in the preseason. Same thing with Mark Ingram. Melvin Gordon is going to be in that group. Gordon will be in that group. That's a good one. It depends on which risk factor. Is that a chance you're willing to take if it's late August and he's not in
Starting point is 00:47:14 camp? If it's late August, it's probably a different conversation because right now we're still taking swings at the fence with Melvin Gordon with the hope that he signs sometime soon. If it's three million dollars apart, hopefully theyvin Gordon, with the hope that he signed some sometime soon. And if it's the $3 million apart, hopefully they come to some sort of conclusion in the next week or so. But,
Starting point is 00:47:30 um, I think it's those four guys for sure. You know, there's probably somebody that, that we're missing. Um, you know, you can maybe make an argument if you want to,
Starting point is 00:47:38 I'm not doing it, but, uh, three Cohen or James White and PPR. Um, it's too soon. I agree. But you know,
Starting point is 00:47:44 some, some people may want to pull a trigger on that. And there still may be a chance. I doubt it. But Kerryon Johnson maybe slips to the third round in the early part of the third round. But I know that's not where we're necessarily looking. How do you feel about this team?
Starting point is 00:47:57 Hypothetical team. And Damian Williams may start to fall too if the hamstring becomes a problem. Julio Jones, Tyreek Hill, let's say Devontae Freeman around three. Round four, we'll take a third quarterback. I'm sorry, a third wide receiver. Round four, we'll take Brandon Robert Woods.
Starting point is 00:48:20 Brandon Robert Woods? Yeah, Brandon Robert Woods. Brandon Robert Cup. We got three receivers, and we got Devontae Freeman. Round five, we're going to take O.J. Howard. Round six, we're going to take Tevin Coleman. He's going to be our number two running back. Great team.
Starting point is 00:48:35 Yep. You're deciding that your weak spot is going to be at number two running back, and I've already given you the reasons why I don't think that that's such a weak spot if it's Coleman. The seventh round, though, I think is where you have to make another tough choice because if you're playing with a flex and it's a three receiver league and there's Will Fuller staring you in the face or Mike Williams or Sterling
Starting point is 00:48:53 Shepard, whoever you want to throw up there, D.D. Westbrook, maybe Dante Pettis falls, maybe Christian Kirk is sitting there or somebody like Rashad Penny or Daryl Henderson or Royce Freeman. You know, guys that have somewhat high ceilings
Starting point is 00:49:09 that could make your running back group look better but not necessarily your starting lineup look better. All right, tomorrow on the show, we're going to look at Dave's schedule analysis. He wrote a story about the teams with the, well, he graded every team's schedule for fantasy purposes. And some people really really like to hear about this stuff and it's really interesting
Starting point is 00:49:29 particularly we'll look at the Packers and some other teams so we'll talk about that tomorrow I'm in the middle of a or middle start of a guillotine league and I was surprised to see how high Aaron Jones went ahead of Karrion Johnson for example in the second round.
Starting point is 00:49:46 Given their schedule, I was like, oh, that's probably not the best team to want to gravitate toward early in the season if you're looking at that type of format. And they're obviously going to have a similar schedule, except we expect the Lions' run defense to be a lot better than the Packers' run defense. But early in the year.
Starting point is 00:50:00 Right, that's the thing. Early in the year, for a guy who might have to fend off some competition to be facing the Vikings and the Bears in the first two Right, that's the thing. Early in the year for a guy who might have to fend off some competition to be facing the Vikings and the Bears in the first two games, that sucks. That's exactly what happened to all of them last year. And it's not just the Vikings and the Bears, though. Right, it's the Cowboys and the Broncos. Yep.
Starting point is 00:50:15 Literally, the first six weeks of the season could be very, very tough for a guy who's already dealing with hamstring pain. All right, then I guess we should probably read some emails. We'll have some Twitter polls as well. I want to talk about half PPR. I'm talking myself into Aaron Jones' fantasy bust. No, but that's the other thing. That's kind of where I'm going with this.
Starting point is 00:50:34 The other angle of this is like, hey, running backs do well against good run defenses sometimes, including Aaron Jones against Minnesota last year. And if we believe in the talent, he's averaged five yards per carry, two straight seasons. He's going to be fine. He may not tear it up, but look, that's for tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:50:52 That's for tomorrow. And he could have a James Conner-like season where he struggles against some of the tougher opponents, but he just goes absolutely bonkers against the terrible ones. There you go. I think it might come down to how involved he ends up being in the passing game, which will be... And how many touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:51:03 I mean, look, he could have a 30-yard rushing day and score a touchdown and catch 20 yards passing, and that's not a bad day. I believe he's one of five running backs in the Aaron Rodgers era that has seven or more touchdowns. That era has lasted over a decade. Okay. We also had an article from George Buscelli, who I may rip his fantasy teams, but I won't rip the article, on cbssports.com slash fantasy.
Starting point is 00:51:28 He looked at the pro football focus grades on a lot of running backs from last year and some interesting takeaways. Marlon Mack had terrible receiving and pass catching, terrible run blocking and pass catching grades, so that is going to limit his PPR upside. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott did not really rate very well as rushers according to Pro Football Focus, and neither did Tevin Coleman.
Starting point is 00:51:52 If you're into those types of stats, check out the article. It's good stuff. Let's read some emails here at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We are going to take one quick, quick break here and come right back and read your questions did you know 66 of utility damage is caused by not requesting a locate don't let your project become part of this statistic a quick locate request can save you from unexpected downtime financial penalties and keep you safe don't let avoidable damage cost you time and money click before you dig ensure your next project is safe visit ontarioonecall.ca it's free it's easy it's the law data sourced from the orcga
Starting point is 00:52:34 2023 dirt report all right here we go this is from irfan from chicago hey benson ennis salon Ennis, Salon, and Muster. You butchered the hell out of that. Rashad Salam. Benson, Ennis, Salam, and Muster. Who are they? Former Bears running back. Curtis Ennis. Put an Anderson in there. Rashad Salam.
Starting point is 00:53:01 Colonel Muster. Brad Muster. And somebody better. Don't forget about Anthony Thomas and Jeremy Langford and... Thomas Jones. Thomas Jones. Last year, Heath gave what turned out to be brilliant advice about targeting T.Y. Hilton at the 2-3 turn in every draft.
Starting point is 00:53:20 Is there a specific player that you collectively suggest targeting at the 2-3 turn in PPR this year? Collectively? Probably not. Maybe Mark Cooper? Yeah, that's one I'm going at. T.Y. Hilton for me, to be honest. Oh, Fournette, okay. Do you guys like Hilton or Cooper better?
Starting point is 00:53:38 Cooper for me. Cooper. Fournette. If Paris Campbell misses a lot of the season, then that'll change a little bit. From Casey. Where's he from? Enid, Oklahoma.
Starting point is 00:53:53 Enid, Oklahoma. 12-team keeper league, non-PPR. We're allowed to keep two players. I have James Conner as my first keeper, but who should I keep with my second one? Julian Edelman, non-PPR, by the way. Julian Edelman in round six or Tevin Coleman in round six?
Starting point is 00:54:08 Edelman. Agreed. From Scott, 12-team super flex Dynasty League half PPR. I gave up all of my picks for the next four years. 2020, a fourth through sixth rounder. 2021, first, fifth, and sixth.
Starting point is 00:54:24 2022, first through sixth. 2023, first through sixth rounder. 2021, first, fifth, and sixth. 2022, first through sixth. 2023, first through sixth to get Christian McCaffrey. That's a ton of picks. That's what, 12, 15? That's too much. 17, 18 picks. Jimmy Johnson approves. That's a terrible deal.
Starting point is 00:54:40 But he does say, this does allow me to continue listening to the CBS baseball podcast deeper into the year as I won't need to prepare for the drafts. That might be one of the worst dynasty trades I've ever seen in my life. That's terrible. Oh my gosh. Please, Christian McCaffrey, don't get hurt.
Starting point is 00:54:55 From Ricky, I'm picking in a 10-team non-PPR league. I initially wanted to go Julio and a running back, maybe James Conner. But now because of the Gordon holdout, Julio is going a little earlier. So I'm currently leaning with going Dalvin Cook and James Conner over Michael Thomas, Beckham, and Kelsey. What would you do?
Starting point is 00:55:16 Take the receivers. I'm a Conner fan, so I'm going to take him. Not a Cook guy. So I would lean toward Conner and Kelsey with my first two pick. You said take the receivers, Jamie. With both of your picks or with Connor? I'd go Thomas and OBJ. I'd go Thomas and Beckman.
Starting point is 00:55:35 In a non-PPR league, you'd lead James Connor off the board? Oh, I'm sorry. I didn't hear the format. I would take Thomas and Connor. Okay. And finally, Chris from Buffalo. Dear Jim, Thurman, Ander, and Bruce. Just kidding.
Starting point is 00:55:50 Those are Bills. Jim, Thurman, Andre, and Bruce. Those are great. Yes. James Connor in the ninth round. George Kittle in the eighth. Kerryon Johnson in the fourth. Or Devontae Adams in the second.
Starting point is 00:56:04 I don't know how many he needs, so rank your favorite two. Conor and Kittle. That's what I'd go with. Yeah, Conor and Kittle. Adams might be last on that list. Yeah, probably. Okay, we're done.
Starting point is 00:56:18 Thanks so much for listening, everybody. We will come back tomorrow with schedule analysis and your five star review questions some of them don't forget to watch us tonight though I plugged it I promise watch us tonight on CBS Sports HQ
Starting point is 00:56:33 what are you wearing? do I have to wear a tie? just the tie nothing else okay great nobody's going to watch now we will talk to you tonight and tomorrow

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