Fantasy Football Today - 08/24 Fantasy Football Podcast: Sleepers and Breakouts! Scherzer Interview

Episode Date: August 24, 2017

You're looking for great value in your drafts, and today we'll help you find that. Dave, Jamey and Heath give you their favorite sleepers and breakouts and tell you when to draft them. Get the scoop o...n Tyrell Williams (4:30), Jeremy Maclin (10:50), Mike Gillislee (15:31) and more ... How far should Allen Robinson fall (24:00)? Should Isaiah Crowell be taken ahead of the rookie RBs (43:00)? How do you decide between players with high TD potential and high catch potential? ... Max Scherzer joins us (54:23) to promote his Fantasy Football event in D.C. and talk some baseball as well ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com Here we go! Your friends don't play fantasy? LOL. What a bunch of nerds. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:20 Only two weeks away from the first Chiefs loss of the season. Welcome to Fantasy Football today. Yeah, man. Regular season football two weeks away. Preseason week three, which is like the fun week, starts tonight. Dave Jamie Heath. Hello, everybody. What up, Adam?
Starting point is 00:00:37 I'm pumped. This better be the fastest two weeks in the history of mankind because I need regular football back in my life. Yeah, we're about to get it. We're getting the dress rehearsal this weekend. We'll be able to talk about it on Monday and a little bit tomorrow. We've got sleepers, breakouts, and busts to talk about. Today, sleepers and breakouts. Tomorrow, busts.
Starting point is 00:00:58 Plus, probably going to get to the auction talk tomorrow. I've got it in the show notes today. I'm thinking that will be more of a tomorrow thing. I want to start this show with a segment that people love. It's called Adam is Dumb. People love that segment, right, Heath? Adam is Dumb. It's my favorite part of the show.
Starting point is 00:01:15 I feel bad. I shouldn't have reacted the way I did to the Darren Sproles pick yesterday during the draft. Thinking about it, like right after I said it, I was like, this is stupid. I'm counting him out. So which Philadelphia running back are you guys drafting first? I would still take Blunt in a standard league before I would take Sproles.
Starting point is 00:01:38 But Blunt's going so much earlier than Sproles that Sproles is really the only one I'm drafting. The problem is both of them aren't going to gain much confidence as a starting option for your fantasy team. I know. Think about it. Going into week one, you're drafting them after round eight, I would presume, if not round ten. Why would you put them in your starting lineup week one against Washington? Answer, you wouldn't.
Starting point is 00:02:04 No. The only time you'd put them in is starting lineup week one against Washington? Answer, you wouldn't. No, but you don't have to. The only time you'd put them in is if either they were playing a defense that was just bereft of tacklers, like literally guys with no arms. But, Dave, I'm not talking about starting them week one. I'm talking about a mid-to-late round pick. I'm not either. I'm saying you're going to put them on your bench,
Starting point is 00:02:18 and then what are you going to do with them? Lie week replacement? How is that different than any other 10th or 11th round pick? Because at least there's some upside with some 10th or 11th round picks. I don't think it's unreasonable at all to think that if you've drafted Ezekiel Elliott and you take Darren Sproles in the 11th round in a PPR league, you might be starting in week one. Well, I don't know if I'm getting Darren McFadden in the 11th round. Darren Sproles.
Starting point is 00:02:37 Oh, Darren Sproles. I think you said Darren McFadden. I may have. Okay, but Jamie, there was the report yesterday that LeGarrette Blount is still going to be a big part. It wasn't just a report. It was a quote from Doug Peterson, the coach. That Blount is still going to be a big part of the offense. Do you buy that? Yes, but I also think that
Starting point is 00:02:54 it's a 30-year-old running back switching teams coming off a long playoff run that had 299 carries and has never had that sustainable level of performance before. If you're asking me which Eagles running back, it's very similar to the Patriots. I believe Heath said he'll take the last one that's available.
Starting point is 00:03:12 I may just take a late-round pick on Wendell Smallwood at this point. And we're going to get an answer tonight. So it's probably, by the time some people are listening to this, it may not be a relevant conversation. But I would have said the same thing prior to today, that I don't really want LeGarrette Blount. I never did. I'll take Sproles in PPR, but in the Standard League, Smallwood certainly showed some mobility last year when he got a chance in a small sample size when he didn't have Lane Johnson.
Starting point is 00:03:37 Now they have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. So there's a chance that the guy behind this offensive line could be very good. It's not going to be Pumphrey, at least according to the latest report. Right, he hasn't looked good. Corey Clement is an undrafted rookie running back who has looked okay, but I don't know how much of an opportunity he's going to get. You said Blunt had 299 carries. That's just the regular season.
Starting point is 00:03:58 He had another 35 in the postseason, so he could certainly wear down. You could talk me into Darren Sproles being a late-round pick. Okay. Well, we will talk about it tomorrow because the Dolphins are at the Eagles tonight and the Panthers are at the Jaguars. Let's start the show. Give me one sleeper or breakout you want to talk about. We'll do a few more a little bit later.
Starting point is 00:04:17 And, of course, this is only scratching the surface. These guys have columns on the website on CBSSports.com slash fantasy. Just go there, and there's so much draft material for you. But, Heath, I'll let you start with a sleeper or a breakout that you'd like to highlight today. You better call him Tyrell Williams. Yes. 11th round ADP. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:04:40 Maybe people don't realize that Mike Williams got hurt and hurt and that tyrell williams is the number two wide receiver in san diego i don't know that he can match last year's production but i expect he comes close um he's an absolute steal at pick 122 overall i've had a hard time i've seen him at the top of my rank list when I'm in round seven of drafts, and I have a hard time pulling the trigger on him then. Even though I love him as a talent, I just know that there's so many other targets for Phillip Rivers to pepper. But then something magical happens, and then round eight comes along,
Starting point is 00:05:18 and all of a sudden I feel much better about Tyrell Williams being on my team at that point. And I think that's the sweet spot for him. Not round 11, not round 7. Round 8 is when I like him. And you know how much I love Mike Wallace as a sleeper. I would rather have Tyrell for sure. Is he going to be as good, though, with everybody healthy? I mean, he's not replicating his numbers.
Starting point is 00:05:40 But what's realistic for him? With Keenan Allen doing what he's capable of doing, with the tight ends presumably staying in the same range? Just like they were last year. Yeah. Like they were last year. Right. Well, what's his role? So the change really is Keenan Allen.
Starting point is 00:05:53 The change is Keenan Allen. I think one thing that's kind of – and I agree with you. Tyrell Williams is a great talent. Pete Prisco told us this very early in the season last year, how much they were excited about him. But you have bigger role for Hunter Henry coming. Maybe. Well, we're hoping. Right, but that comes out of Antonio Gates, presumably.
Starting point is 00:06:13 Sure, but Gates is still there. You have a healthy Keenan Allen, which should be their target leader if everything goes according to plan. And you also have a healthy Travis Benjamin, which we never talk about. This guy played with a knee injury last year and missed some time with that. That's, what would you say, four targets a game? That's probably what he got last year, isn't it? So maybe more?
Starting point is 00:06:34 I don't, I think four targets a game seems fine for him. Maybe five. He can have 80 targets. And then what if Mike Williams by October, what they're saying, that if he's playing by then? And everyone else has stayed healthy. And somebody has messed up. Then somebody isn't doing their job.
Starting point is 00:06:49 It has to be Tyrell Williams. It can't be Travis Benjamin? Oh, it would definitely be. I don't think Benjamin goes from four targets to three. I mean. It could go to zero if Mike Williams is their third receiver and Benjamin doesn't seem to feel. But Benjamin does something that none of these guys really do.
Starting point is 00:07:04 Well, Tyrell Williams actually is a pretty good deep threat. I mean, most of his touchdowns were long ones. He's very good, but he's not the same speed guy that Travis Benjamin is. Right, but he's got size that involves that. I'm not saying Travis Benjamin is keeping Tyrell Williams on the field, but those three targets go somewhere. Two targets go somewhere. Mike Williams takes two or three targets a game the way i view it is tyrell
Starting point is 00:07:26 williams in 9 10 11 is great value when you start pushing him up you're starting to take away what his appeal is now again we we're talking about a guy in keenan allen's played nine games over the last two seasons so he could easily get hurt again we're talking about travis benjamin who didn't stay healthy last year and again that's a couple targets and he had five targets a game last year so i don't i don't really think he goes up from that. No. You have the two tight ends, which could falter. And again, I like Tyra Williams.
Starting point is 00:07:52 I just don't want to overvalue Tyra Williams. So I think his ADP is kind of appropriate. Okay. Well, 11th round? He was in your sleepers column. I like him. Right. I'm just saying.
Starting point is 00:08:03 It's not that I don't like him, but I don't want to reach for him. I put him in there because he's going in after round nine. If I'm taking him in round seven, no. If I'm taking him in round eight, I don't really love it. If I'm getting him in round nine or later, that's fine for me. And I think I should probably bring up the schedule one more time. Right. At Denver,
Starting point is 00:08:20 Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia. You could throw out Miami. Miami's... Miami. Miami is because everybody ran on Miami. No, Miami is not a bad matchup at all. I'm just giving all the matchups. At Denver, Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, three straight home games. At the Giants, at Oakland, Denver, at New England, and then a bye. First nine games, you've got a bye.
Starting point is 00:08:40 You've got at New England, great cornerbacks. You've got two games against Denver, great cornerbacks. You've got two games against Denver, great cornerbacks. You've got at the Giants, great cornerbacks. I think it's arguable that they're going to struggle in five of their first nine games. Jamie made the case yesterday that week one against the Broncos, Broncos' pass rush isn't going to be healthy.
Starting point is 00:08:58 Valid point, but I just see two Denver, New England, at the Giants, and a bye. That scares me a little bit. You know, and it's probably worth noting. I see two Denver, New England at the Giants and a bye. That scares me a little bit. You know, and it's probably worth noting. But I think the other part of it is, I'll ask Dave because he's the highest on Tyrell Williams, I think. I am.
Starting point is 00:09:18 And you have Keenan Allen top 20. Henry top 10, right, if I recall. Yeah, Rivers is top 12 for me. But shouldn't he be higher if you like all these guys? I like a lot of quarterbacks this year. But if you were projecting this, though, you would have to probably project Rivers to get these guys to the numbers that they have to get to. I think Allen and Williams can probably combine for 2,000 yards on their own. If they're both healthy 16 games. Yeah, I think maybe more like 2,100.
Starting point is 00:09:42 Okay. And then the touchdowns that come along with them is probably in that. What do you mean we're stretching? No, no, I'm saying more like 2,100. Okay. And then the touchdowns that come along with them is probably in that. What do you mean we're stretching? No, no, I'm saying he said 2,000. Yeah, I mean, I think it might be. I don't see a reason because one other thing as far as the targets go, Dontrell Inman had 97 targets last year. So there's six targets a game just for whoever wants them.
Starting point is 00:10:01 Well, Inman could potentially get them too. If we really want to. Let's hope that's getting out. We're going to sink all of our eggs into the Travis Benjamin basket. for whoever wants them. Well, Inman could potentially get them too. If we really want to. We're going to sink all of our eggs into the Travis Benjamin basket. We might as well get the Dontrell Inman basket and throw some eggs in there too. Tyrell Williams had a good year last year. He seems like a very good young player. There is appeal there. We could sit here and break down the targets,
Starting point is 00:10:17 but you're drafting a lot of potential. And if Keenan Allen gets hurt, you're drafting a total steal. Mega, mega upset. Yeah, this is the perfect Acer strategy guy. It is my favorite. It is actually my favorite Acer strategy, Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams. All right, let's get Jamie, sleeper, or breakout. And Jamie's going to give us a bust.
Starting point is 00:10:38 I don't know if I said this on the air. Since he won't be here tomorrow on the bust show, he's going to give us a bust later today. Give me a sleeper or a breakout, Jamie. I forgot the list. You got Macklin or Snead. Macklin, sleeper, Snead, breakout. Sure. I'll talk about Macklin because we talk about Snead a lot.
Starting point is 00:10:54 I think that he is not getting appropriately valued because we don't see – and the same thing for Mike Wallace. We don't see Joe Flacco on the field. Now, Wallace kind of is going to stay in the range that he is because nobody wants him, and that's not fair because he's been consistent in a good or bad way, but he's been consistent. Macklin,
Starting point is 00:11:15 everyone's going to look at what he did a year ago and say he's a terrible player, and I get that because he had a groin injury that he missed four games. He said he wasn't healthy the whole season. He had a death in the family or a very close friend of the family prior to the season. I just think he was a mess. And I don't think Alex Smith, as good as he was with Smith the year before, I don't think Alex Smith is the type of quarterback that helps his receiving core get better.
Starting point is 00:11:36 You can say the same thing maybe about Joe Flacco, but there are a lot of targets to talk about. We mentioned this all throughout the offseason. He used to correct me if I'm wrong, but I think it's 300 targets that are missing from this offense. Over 300 targets, yes. When you take away Dennis Pitta, Steve Smith, Kyle Uchek. Who am I missing? Kamar Aiken. Kamar Aiken.
Starting point is 00:11:53 Those four guys, that's 300 targets. Danny Woodhead should take a big piece of that. Combine Uchek, combine Kenneth Dixon, and he's also a guy that's missing. So there's a ton of production to be replaced in this offense. And I think we mentioned this yesterday or the day before in terms of completions, that Joe Flacco was a top five guy in terms of completions. They're going to throw the ball a ton. And so Macklin, who's – I don't know exactly where his ADP is right now, but it's late.
Starting point is 00:12:20 104th. I think he's going to be their number one receiver in terms of targets. May not be in production, but certainly he's going to be their number one receiver in terms of targets. May not be in production, but certainly he's going to have the opportunity to lead them in touches, targets. And so to get that type of guy in a high volume passing offense, yes, there's a history of Joe Flacco not supporting multiple receivers. I think he's going to be their best one. I will gladly take him after the 100th overall selection. The only concern I have with Flacco being out, he's already built the rapport with Mike Wallace.
Starting point is 00:12:45 Has he thrown a pass to Jeremy Macklin? I don't know. I'm sure somewhere along the line. Well, no, sure. He got hurt early in training camp. They probably threw a couple. I don't know. Was it hurt early in training camp or came to camp with the sore back?
Starting point is 00:12:57 I think he came to camp with the sore back. It doesn't mean that he hasn't thrown. They haven't done a lot of work together. So it might take him a couple of weeks to get going. But the other part of that, which you're right, the other part of that, though, is he knows the offensive coordinator maybe better than Mike Wallace does because he was with Marty Mordenweg in Philadelphia. So this is a system that he should have familiarity with, and he's a veteran guy. I don't think it's going to take very much for him to step in and learn what Joe Flacco likes and what he doesn't like. A year removed from two straight 1,000-yard seasons, he's been good everywhere he's been.
Starting point is 00:13:25 Philadelphia was good. Kansas City was good. I think he's going to be good here. I love him falling in my lap any chance I could possibly get. I'm getting him in my fourth receiver. He could easily be a top 24 guy. All right, that's Jeremy Macklin. The ADP is round nine.
Starting point is 00:13:38 Look, I can't poo-poo taking Jeremy Macklin in round nine, but I know the history of Joe Flacco with his wide receivers, and he can barely support one wide receiver, much less multiple wide receivers. I disagree, though. I disagree because two years ago, Steve Smith was a top 20 wide receiver. He was 18th in standard, 17th in PPR. That was 2014. 2015, his 16-game pace was top 10.
Starting point is 00:14:02 He had 670 yards and three touchdowns in seven games. And you also say can't support two receivers. Dennis Pitta was a top 12 tight end last year, just didn't score touchdowns. He would have been a top five guy if he got the touchdowns based on the volume that he got. I don't think Benjamin Watson and Max Williams are going to be significant factors like Pitta was. They could, but I don't see that happening when he has what might be one of his better receiving cores if Perryman can get healthy and get on the field too. Where do you have Macklin ranked, Jamie, among receivers?
Starting point is 00:14:32 Oh, he's right around 40. He's 36 in PPR because I do think that's where he has a better shot to help your fans team. But he's right around 40. I just think that I'll suppress his value right now because I think I get him at a better price, and I think people get him at a better price. Okay. So would you rather have Macklin or Deshaun Jackson? Jackson.
Starting point is 00:14:51 Jackson. More upside with Jackson. But again, would not be surprised if Macklin's better. I don't know if you guys have watched Hard Knocks yet, the latest episode. There was a piece, and I know I told Heath and Dave this off the air, but when their first practice with Jacksonville, Jackson was complaining about not touching the ball, and I wonder if that's a sign of things to come.
Starting point is 00:15:10 He's like, can I get the bleeping rock ready? And I just wonder if he's going to see a lot of that with how much Mike Evans dominates targets. All right, Dave. Also, you know, we don't mention this enough, but when Macklin signed with the Ravens, he's going to now be getting free crab cakes for life from Jimmy's Seafood. And that's pretty cool.
Starting point is 00:15:28 Dave, give me a sleeper or a breakout. I wish I could sign with the Ravens. I like Mike Gillisley. And I know we haven't seen him in the preseason. And I know that Rex Burkhead had a touchdown last week. But the Patriots brought Gillisley to New England for a reason. I believe that. You see that he's averaged 5.7 yards per carry each of the last two years.
Starting point is 00:15:47 You know that he's the most physical running back that the Patriots have on the roster, and you want to target the running back who could best replace LeGarrette Blount in this offense and be that goal-line guy. Gilleslie scored eight touchdowns last year. Do you know how many of them came? I'll start with this. How many of them came in the red zone? Two. Seven. How many of them came i'll start with this how many of them came in the red zone two seven oh how many of them came from five yards or closer through four six so he was a goal line he's exactly what they're looking for and so if i can get mike gillisley in round six i don't
Starting point is 00:16:20 care that he hasn't played a wink of preseason. I'm happy that he's healthy now. I hope he takes care of his hamstring. I will take the chance on him then, hoping that he can fall into the end zone as many times as Marshawn Lynch can in Oakland. I think I would agree with everything you said, except for the fact that you have to take him in round six. That sounds like the profile of a running back that hasn't really been working in camp, that it's pretty much all speculative what he's going to do and we should be able to draft him in round seven, round eight, after the guys that we know are going to be starting running backs. I'm just afraid a round six pick. What's the difference between round six and round seven?
Starting point is 00:16:59 Other than the obvious one. The players that are available. Well, what if Gillisley comes out tonight? Because it sounds like Burkhead's not going to play. So Gilleslie comes out and gets, in the first half and whatever they play into the third quarter, 12 carries. Because you would assume that's on base. Is he going to play tonight? Gilleslie's expected to play.
Starting point is 00:17:21 I mean, I still think that Gilles Lee, I talked about this when we talked about Burkhead, who had a nice preseason. Yeah, this is like the third time we mentioned this backfield this week. I still think that Gilas Lee is their best running back. I don't expect them to catch a lot of passes. They have three guys who can do that really well. But I would expect Gilas Lee to be their best ball carrier. At least their most talented one.
Starting point is 00:17:43 Just need him to get on the damn field. And if you like him as much as I do, you won't mind spending the round six ball carrier, at least their most talented one. Just need him to get on the damn field. And if you like him as much as I do, you won't mind spending the round six choice on him. I would say that Gillislee is very similar to his teammate, Brandon Cooks, in how you value these two guys because there are going to be some very maddening weeks and there are going to be some weeks where he's exceptional. So you don't think there's a chance that they just turn Gillislee loose and give him more or less the blunt rule? Oh, there's certainly a chance.
Starting point is 00:18:06 He's not getting – if you were to say the ceiling, I'd say 200 carries. He's not getting close to three like what – Yeah, I might be more bullish on the ceiling and more scared of the floor both. You think he'll get more than 200 carries? I don't think he will, but I think there's a ceiling that exists that's higher than that. If he comes out tonight and gets 12 carries like you said and looks like he did last year, 5.7 yards per carry and gets a goal line, then people are going to go nuts over him. Weren't there games last year where LeGarrette Blount had a ridiculous amount of carries? We had 299 for the season. Right, but that was also – Deion Lewis was hurt.
Starting point is 00:18:38 James White is kind of pegged for his role. There was no really third option. Now they have four options. The thing that's going to piss a lot of people off is if they go into week one with five tailbacks. Because Brandon Bolden most likely is making this roster because of his special teams ability. So if they keep
Starting point is 00:18:55 Deion Lewis and use him, there's no way he's getting 200 carries. I think he may be the only player that legitimately has a ceiling of a top 10 running back and a floor of being an active week one. Like one of the five healthy. You know what I think the way to approach it is?
Starting point is 00:19:13 This may make you throw up. Is the year that Ben Jarvis Greenellis had 180 carries. He's a much better player than Ben Jarvis Greenellis was at that time. But it was very frustrating to own Ben Jarvis Greenellis. You were counting on him to score touchdowns. All right. Give me Mike Gillisley or McFadden. Gilleslie.
Starting point is 00:19:30 Yeah, Gilleslie. You're taking a chance on Gilleslie. Gilleslie or a Seahawks running back. Gilleslie. Gilleslie. When I struggle with his, and we talked about this during our live mock draft, was Gilleslie and Terrence West because if Danny Woodhead is banged up and may not be ready to start the season, and he's the starter there
Starting point is 00:19:46 with really little competition, I don't really worry about Buck Allen at this point. There's people who love Buck Allen. I've got West one spot ahead of Gilleslie. They're right in the same range. We'll get more sleepers and breakouts in a moment. Coming up on today's show, we're going to hear from
Starting point is 00:20:00 National's starting pitcher, Max Scherzer. He's promoting the Scherzer Showdown. Go to scherzershowdown.com. If you are in the D.C. area, if you want more information about doing a fantasy draft with some Nationals players, really cool stuff. We also asked Scherzer about who the worst Nationals fantasy football player, like who's the worst at fantasy football because they all play in the clubhouse, if he's friends with any NFL players, and if he feels obligated to draft them.
Starting point is 00:20:23 And we asked him some baseball questions too, like is the ball juiced? We will have more sleepers and breakouts tomorrow, busts. We're going to talk about our auction. It looks like tomorrow is going to be auction day. And please join us in Philadelphia on August 31st at the Comcast Xfinity Live restaurant from 6 to 9 p.m. So August 31st in Philadelphia at the Xfinity Live Restaurant, 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. We're going to be doing a live podcast.
Starting point is 00:20:52 There's going to be hosted food and bar, a meet and greet, raffle prizes, and more. Please join us in Philadelphia on the 31st, 6 to 9 p.m. Eastern at the Xfinity Live Restaurant. And go to cbssports.com slash podcast if you like podcasts. You want to listen to college football, NFL, basketball, whatever you want. We've got a lot of shows for you. the holidays, you don't want to leave your home unprotected. And we've got a great opportunity for you to save on home security. For a limited time, you can take a whopping $100 off of Simply Safe Home Security's special summer package. Simply Safe is the name, okay? Simply is spelled with an I, S-I-M-P-L-I, safe. Everything you need to protect your home. No long-term contracts, no installation costs, and I can tell you from experience, that's terrific. No hidden fees, and SimpliSafe's 24-7 professional monitoring is just $14.99 a month. A great deal. Get $100 off your summer security package at simplisafe.com. This sale ends very soon, so please, people, simplisafe, S, S-I-M-P-L-I safe.com
Starting point is 00:22:05 slash FFT for $100 off. SimpliSafe.com slash FFT. Let's do the news and notes, guys. Odell Beckham could miss a week or two of the regular season. When are you drafting him? Yesterday, he did go fifth ahead of Evans and ahead of
Starting point is 00:22:21 A.J. Green. What about you? Where would you take Beckham? Fifth. Fifth? Until it's would you take Beckham? Fifth. Fifth? Okay. Until it's confirmed. That's just a report. All right. Devontae Freeman is going to miss this week's game with a concussion,
Starting point is 00:22:32 but they don't seem worried about him missing week one. Fitz Toussaint is running ahead of James Conner in the Steelers' backfield. Do you handcuff Le'Veon Bell with Fitz Toussaint? I'm not handcuffing Le'Veon Bell at all right now. But look, I know anybody who looks at just box scores will be confused by that because Connor had a great game statistically. He had over 100 total yards, had a lot of touches too. If you watch that game, the first three quarters of that game, he looked dreadful. He dropped three passes. He bumped into his linemen. It looked like he was playing football for the first time. Fourth quarter, he started to get into his groove a little bit more, ripped off a bunch of long runs.
Starting point is 00:23:10 It was against third stringers. I'd like to see him get a couple of more opportunities. You know, last year, Jordan Howard got off to a terrible start, too. And by his fourth preseason game, he clicked. I wonder if something like that could happen to Conor. I am still willing to take him with a very late pick if I draft Le'Veon Bell. Conor, not Toussaint. Conor.
Starting point is 00:23:31 Toussaint is terrible. We know his track record. I don't think he's scored a touchdown in the NFL. Okay. In, like, three years. And more notes. Chad Henney's going to start Jacksonville's third preseason game, and Deshaun Kaiser's going to start for Cleveland. So Henney and Kaiser could be Jacksonville's third preseason game, and Deshaun Kizer is going to start for Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:23:46 So Henney and Kizer could be starting week one for the Jags and the Browns. Is that good or bad for their receivers? Good for the Browns. I don't know if it's necessarily good for the Browns or the Jaguars. It's better than Osweiler. Look, obviously it's better than Osweiler, but does that mean that Kenny Britt is going to get 900 yards and five touchdowns? He has a better chance to do with Kaiser than anybody else in that roster.
Starting point is 00:24:08 Okay, let's move to Jacksonville. I don't think Allen Robinson is 1,000 yards with either of these quarterbacks. Jamie, you have Allen Robinson as a bust. You might as well go into it right now. He's going about 60th overall, though. He keeps on dropping. Well, yeah. I mean, when I wrote it a week ago, it was coming off of the terrible situation with Bortles
Starting point is 00:24:24 and not knowing that they were going to actually bench him. Yeah, it makes it worse. So it's hard to say that he's going to get back to the level we saw two years ago. It's hard to even think that he's not going to be that much better than what he was last year because he'll still have the opportunity for 120-plus targets, and he was one of the 22 guys that got 120-plus targets and failed to finish as a top 24 fantasy wide receiver. I'll take him as a number three, but not as a target. How many failed? How many with 120 targets failed to be top 24?
Starting point is 00:24:57 Three. Three. Robinson was 28th in standard, 24th in PPR. The other two were DeAndre Hopkins and Brandon Marshall. And what did those three guys have in common? Bleepity bleep quarterback. What is the difference between DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson? I don't get it.
Starting point is 00:25:12 I think Hopkins' quarterback situation improved. It couldn't have gotten worse. Brock Osweiler is worse than Blake Bortles. He could have literally had Blake Bortles as his quarterback this year and it would have gotten better. That would have been an upgrade. I was putting together my list last night because my sleepers, breakouts, Blake Bortles. He could have literally had Blake Bortles as his quarterback this year and it would have gotten better. That would have been an upgrade. I was putting together my list last night because my sleepers, breakouts, and busts come out tomorrow
Starting point is 00:25:30 and I was going to put Allen Robinson on the list until I saw that his ADP was now the end of the fifth round and I'm fine with him there. He's going in between Julian Edelman and Golden Tate. I would rather have Tate but I'd rather have Robinson over Edelman.
Starting point is 00:25:45 I'll take them both ahead of Robinson and PPR. Yeah, I don't want to give up on a guy who was the number four wide receiver two years ago, number six in PPR. I know we're not really giving up on him, but yeah, fifth round would be pretty tempting for Robinson. It's not like we haven't seen good
Starting point is 00:26:01 receivers with bad quarterbacks do well before. Is he a free agent after this year? He gone. Because I'd love to see him with a good quarterback. Yeah, me too. All right, guys. Finish up the news and notes. We've got Danny Woodhead dealing with a hamstring injury.
Starting point is 00:26:17 Jamie alluded to it. Jordan Matthews of Buffalo is doing individual drills. Oakland left tackle Donald Penn ended his holdout. And Greg Allman? Allman? A-U-M-A-N? Greg Allman. I went to college with him.
Starting point is 00:26:30 Oh, Greg Allman. Did you give him a lot of Allman Brothers jokes back in the day? You should have. Of the Tampa Bay Times, he expects Charles Sims to be Tampa Bay's passing downs back this year. Is that significant?
Starting point is 00:26:41 I don't think it's that much of a surprise. Okay. Does it hurt Doug Martin at all? Reduce his catches? No, because the year that both guys were great, right? Was 2015? Yeah, sounds right. Alright then, good stuff. So, you know what
Starting point is 00:26:55 I wanted to do? I do want to talk sleepers, breakouts, and busts, but I feel like we've neglected the listeners. By the way, we'll announce our Podcast League winners tomorrow. I read about 350 haikus last night and have probably about 500 to get to tonight. And that's still with more coming in today. So we'll announce the winners tomorrow. But let's read some emails. And when I say quick, I really want to be quick with these if you guys wouldn't mind that. Kyle from New Jersey. What are your thoughts on pairing Mixon and McFadden?
Starting point is 00:27:25 The thought is, Mixon might take a little while before he becomes the full-time back. Meanwhile, you plug in McFadden during the Zeke suspension. Do you think that's a good pairing of Joe Mixon and Darren McFadden? Sure. It all depends on cost for me. If I have to spend
Starting point is 00:27:41 a third and a seventh to do that, no thank you. How come? Because I think I can get better to spend a third and a seventh to do that, no thank you. How come? Because I think I can get better players for my third and seventh round draft picks. What point are you comfortable with, McFadden? Maybe the ninth. Ninth? Maybe the ninth. I'd prefer the tenth.
Starting point is 00:27:57 That's where I'd really feel good about it. Even if the suspension does hold at six games? I don't think that anyone should expect they're going to know the answer to that before they draft. The appeals on the 29th. It could be Labor Day weekend. It could be. But most likely I think we're going to find out maybe that Tuesday after Labor Day. Could be.
Starting point is 00:28:12 Or maybe they bury it the Friday before. But I would expect that you should plan on drafting thinking it's going to be six, but it could be reduced. All right. And it really comes down to how well you think McFadden's going to do with tough matchups. Giants, Broncos, Cardinals, Rams, Packers, and then a bye. It's awful. It's not good. But, you know, for what it's worth, the Broncos had a bad run defense last
Starting point is 00:28:35 year. All right. Moving on. Next email. Steven from a city in California, Dave. Los Angeles. Is Seattle's DST worth starting week one at the Packers?
Starting point is 00:28:47 And are they even worth drafting, knowing you have to start them week one at the Packers? I'd be nervous to start them against Green Bay, but I would still do it. I would take a long view approach. I would do that with all of the top DSTs. That's the reason they're top DSTs. I mean, think about it. You got
Starting point is 00:29:02 the Seahawks get the Packers. The Chiefs get the Patriots. The Vikings get the Saints. It could be a rough start for all of them. Maybe roster two defenses if you've got somebody that's worthless.
Starting point is 00:29:20 And just what? Take the Bills? Take the Steelers. Take the Bills. Well, the Steelers, I think you're not going to – you have to pay probably a heavier price for them. Yeah, probably. Take the Bills, maybe. They got the Jets in week one. Who's got – Falcons have the Bears.
Starting point is 00:29:36 Yeah, there you go. Falcons have the Bears. All right, moving on, moving on. This is from Ian. I wouldn't have guessed it, but TJ Yeldon was the seventh most targeted running back last year. Any thoughts on whether that will keep Fournette off the field on passing downs? If Yeldon makes the team? And if he's healthy.
Starting point is 00:29:54 Which one, Fournette or Yeldon? Yeldon more than Fournette. Fournette says he's going to be okay. We believe Leonard Fournette when he talks. Sure we do. Well, is this a concern that Fournette would be mostly just a standard scoring kind of guy? I have a hard time believing the Jaguars spent a fourth overall pick in the draft for a guy that they're going to take off the field on the most crucial down of the game.
Starting point is 00:30:16 There have been rumblings, though, that they had looked at Yeldon playing third down and Ivory doing short yardage. I think that sounds ridiculously, like just a completely bad plan. Like only an idiot, an old school idiot would think of something like that. I would just say that we have had bad decisions come out of Jacksonville before. And from Doug Marone before. Yeah, but now they got a new general manager. They're going to sit Blake Bortles.
Starting point is 00:30:44 They don't have a new general manager. They're going to sit Blake Bortles. They don't have a new general manager. They have a new head of football operations. I think that's Coughlin's time. From Dorian, how much of a chance is there with a late appeal date that Zeke will play in week one as he appeals? A chance. There is a chance. Somewhere between 1% and 99%. I would say less than 50%. I would say less than 50%.
Starting point is 00:31:06 I would say less than 20%. I don't think it's going to happen, but there is a chance. Let's hear from Dave in Long Island. Tenth pick in a 10-team half PPR league. From which position in your draft would it be easier to recover from drafting Ezekiel Elliott? Can it be pulled off in a 10-team league? In other words, if you have an early pick, mid pick, late pick, is there a spot that's easier to recover from drafting Zeke?
Starting point is 00:31:31 I've been taking him a lot with any pick that I have in the first five overall selections. And I find that if you do that, and depending on how you feel about these two guys, which I think most of us agree on Crowell, but Lamar Miller, you can get one of Crowell or Miller in the third round. So that kind of gives you your number one running back for the first few weeks. So in our pick-by-pick series, which we've done,
Starting point is 00:31:57 I had the fourth pick. I had Antonio Brown, Zeke, Lamar Miller, and then in the fifth round took Marshawn Lynch, and I'm thrilled about that. Okay. And then let's go to John from the city of Dave's choosing. Boston, Massachusetts. Who is the least talented player in the best situation?
Starting point is 00:32:16 I'm not supposed to say this, right? What? Melvin Gordon. It could be. He's very talented. Come on. He might not be the most talented running back in football. He's in the best situation too, though. He's very talented. Come on. He might not be the most talented running back in football. He's in the best situation too, though.
Starting point is 00:32:29 It's a combination. Least talented player in the best situation. That's pretty funny, actually. Yeah. LeGarrette Blount? He's not in the best situation. He was. I think Gilleslie.
Starting point is 00:32:42 I think Gilleslie's talented too. Yeah, see, I'm hoping Gilleslie's talented. Like 5.7 yards per carry two years in a row. It's a funny question to me. Maybe Terrence West. Marshawn Lynch at this point. Rob Kelly. And he got the rookie running back, though.
Starting point is 00:32:58 I'm sticking with my guns. Which is what? You are going to have to swallow that crow. You know, it's a tough question. All those running backs are very talented at the top. We'll see. Okay, and that's it. Let's go back to our sleepers and breakouts.
Starting point is 00:33:15 And let's get – all right, Jamie, you gave us Jeremy Macklin. Your bust was Allen Robinson. Your breakout is Willie Sneed, and I know you've talked about him a lot, but let's talk about him again and hit me with it. Willie Sneed is actually – let's see where he's going here. Sorry. Sixth round, I believe. Yeah, so he's going just ahead of Jamison Crowder.
Starting point is 00:33:33 That's a great round for Jamie. Willie Sneed and Jamison Crowder are actually going about 80th overall on Fantasy Pros. And, wow, Sneed is 96th. Was that right, or is he 80th? Oh, he's 80th. I'm sorry. There's two columns I was looking at. 80th overall.
Starting point is 00:33:48 So let's just say there for Willie Snead, 80th. I'm hoping that this third preseason game gives him a little bit better showing than the second one when he played into the fourth quarter, along with Kobe Fleener. But I just think it sets up for him to have a great year with what's happening for him no brandon cooks so he should get a bump in targets however modest but it's a bump he's in a contract year he's in his third season technically he you know this is his uh fourth year in the nfl because he was on the practice squad as a rookie, but third full season playing.
Starting point is 00:34:28 And, you know, Adam, you bring up this all the time, and I think it's relevant. His targets and production in the first two games of the season last year were phenomenal, and in that second game, he hurt his toe, missed week three, and that's when Michael Thomas took off. Now Thomas is clearly a better player than him, but Sean Payton has said he could be when Lance Moore was at his best, he could
Starting point is 00:34:49 be their Lance Moore. And so that's a top 24 caliber fantasy receiver. So I'll take that in the sixth round or however late he's going as often as possible. Who do you like better, Willie Sneed or Allen Robinson? Willie Sneed. Wow.
Starting point is 00:35:06 I've got him back-to-back. I'll need him cornerback all the time. One spot ahead of Sneed. I've got Robinson. Man, that's crazy. It's crazy that we're even asking that question. It's crazy that it's close. I'm going to say Robinson.
Starting point is 00:35:21 What's the upside for Sneed? Because we've seen two years of low touchdowns, lots of catches, modest yardage. 80-1107. Jamie, you like that? Oh, for sure. For where you're getting them. I just completely pulled that out of thin air. Just to tell you, again, what those first two games were.
Starting point is 00:35:47 17 targets over those two games. 13 catches. 209 yards. So over 100 yards per game. 219 yards. One was 172 yards. One was 54. And two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:36:01 A touchdown in each game. Yeah, so 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns. To be fair, in that second game is when he hurt his toe, so he didn't finish the game. So he was actually going to go 200 catches and 2,000 yards. I mean, again, you're banking on situation, and his quarterback's thrown for 5,000 yards for the last six years. So could it be Brandon Coleman?
Starting point is 00:36:25 Sure. Could it be Ted Ginn? Sure. Could it be Willie Steen? Did you say sure for Brandon Coleman? It could be. That's not going to be. Ted Ginn is the one who's going to be the deep ball guy.
Starting point is 00:36:34 Here's the projections on the site. Is this realistic? 113 targets, so he goes from – That almost seems low. I got him with 122 is my expectation. He had 104 last year. Here's our projections, and that's of 15 games. These are not your projections.
Starting point is 00:36:47 These are sports lines. These are sports line CBS sports projections. Yeah. 113 targets, 78 catches, which I think is low, 1,001 yards is probably realistic, and 4.5 touchdowns, so say five. You know what they did? They took his numbers from last year, and they multiplied it by 110%, almost exactly 110%. I've got 83 catches, 1,037 yards, and five touchdowns. All right.
Starting point is 00:37:10 So let's say 1,000 catches, 1,000 yards. 1,000 catches. I will take him number one overall. 1,000 yards. And we'd love to get more than five touchdowns out of Willie Sneed. That would make him a true breakout. Breeze does spread the ball around a lot. Would you take Willie Sneed or Samuel Watkins?
Starting point is 00:37:29 Watkins. I'll take Sneed. I'm going to talk about Watkins in just a second. Talk about Watkins right now. This is a breakout or a sleeper for you? It's a breakout. He was a breakout early in the preseason when we thought he was with Tyrod and thought if he just stays healthy, this could be
Starting point is 00:37:43 the year that Sammy Watkins put all together. And then his ADP fell two and a half rounds on CBS even more. I believe it's down to like the seventh round now on CBS for Sammy Watkins. Pick 82 overall, so the end of the seventh round. That's ridiculous. We don't know for sure that jared goff is that bad we've never seen jared goff with a good wide receiver he looked decent in his last preseason game watkins is the type of receiver like what's the real difference between him and deandre hopkins or him and alan robinson yeah no it's really just making me question deandre hopkins to be honest with you right well like the difference would be that he's injury prone. And sure, I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that.
Starting point is 00:38:29 And that's why he comes at a discount from Hopkins. But it shouldn't be in the seventh round. Watkins also, at least in his Buffalo days, they didn't throw the ball that much, was not a big catch guy. So do you have him ranked higher in standard compared to PPR, Sammy Watkins? I do have him higher in standard in PPR. I think he's worth a fourth round pick in standard and a fifth in PPR. Anybody else willing to pull the trigger
Starting point is 00:38:49 in the top 50 picks or so for Sammy Watkins? Fifth round, I think, is appropriate for him because, as Dave has illustrated a few times, two games against Richard Sherman, two games against Patrick Peterson, that's not going to be easy in those four games. You have to also build in the potential risk.
Starting point is 00:39:06 Now, obviously, I was, like Keith, very excited about Sammy Watkins because I do think that we've seen guys come back from the second foot surgery and play at a high level. And hopefully he follows suit with Julio Jones and Des Bryant and Julian Edelman, the three notable ones. But it still has to be part of how you're viewing Sammy Watkins. So there's a big opportunity for him. He's still in the contract here, as we're all well aware.
Starting point is 00:39:30 But I don't know if I want to overvalue him. I'd rather just value him. And I think round five is where his value lies. Is it weird that when you say that I illustrate something, that I picture myself as Bob Ross standing at the easel, and I've got the big, big afro. You can illustrate an argument. Oh, beautiful, beautiful rant.
Starting point is 00:39:48 Oh, come on, sketcher doodle. This is just begging for an illustration. Just happy, happy, happy goalposts in the end zone. Such beautiful shades of yellow. You know, it's tough for me to compare. You get to that point in the draft, like end of round four, and we're looking at Golden Tate, and we're looking at maybe Willie Sneed and Jamison Crowder,
Starting point is 00:40:12 these very good PPR wide receivers. And then we're looking at Allen Robinson and Sammy Watkins, who have, in my opinion, a lot more talent than those guys and a lot more touchdown potential. A lot more upside for sure. And maybe more downside because of the quarterback. Yep. But yeah, those are really tough calls for me.
Starting point is 00:40:33 Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, and then guys like Crowder and Snead and Golden Tate. I think for me, Tate feels like an easy call in PPR, just seems really safe in PPR. In standard, I don't know. But how do you choose between those types of receivers? Part of it depends on your roster already. If I've got a team that's already pretty high variance, I would like to have some stability. Crowder or Snead provide that, but if my team's looking kind of boring, like I've got Lamar Miller and Doug Baldwin, then shoot for the moon with Watkins. I think also it's how you value these players because if you like those kind of guys, their
Starting point is 00:41:09 average draft position suggests you can get them a little bit later, whereas it's not the same. You're going to have to take Sammy Watkins in the first 50 overall picks if he stays where he's at. You're going to have to take Allen Robinson if you still want to buy into it in the first 60 overall picks. And as you're seeing, Steen and Crowder, you get a little bit later and they may have more upside. But the direction
Starting point is 00:41:28 they're moving, like Sammy Watkins has dropped 20 spots since the last update. Just needs one good preseason game this weekend. Sneed's gone up 13, Crowder's gone up 11. It's funny that Sneed's gone up because he hasn't done anything. That's thanks to you. I haven't been
Starting point is 00:41:44 fooled by Sean Payton before. We love Willie Sneed. We love Willie Sneed. We love Isaiah Crowell, who we're going to talk about. You know what I love now? I love watches. I'm kind of a watch guy now. I got my movement watch.
Starting point is 00:41:58 We all got them. I mean, how nice are these watches, guys, these movement watches? Very nice. Yeah, amazing. I told you my story on it. Yes, that's true. Oh, crap. No, we never heard the full story.
Starting point is 00:42:07 We have to get to that at some point. But listen, movement watches, I think you guys are really going to like them. They're a great gift for someone or just for yourself. It's spelled MVMTwatches.com, and the URL to go to is MVMTwatches.com slash FFootball. 15% off, a high-quality minimalist watch at a revolutionary price. 15% off is great, but these are already very discounted. Because you go to a department store, you're talking $500 for a watch and up. We're talking $95.
Starting point is 00:42:39 They start at $95, these movement watches. MVMTwatches.com slash FFootball. Take 15% off. I'm getting a lot of compliments on my watch. Oh, Azar, didn't know you liked these movement watches. MVMTwatches.com slash FFootball. Take 15% off. I'm getting a lot of compliments on my watch. Oh, Azar, didn't know you liked to wear watches. Now I do. These things are awesome. Also, free shipping and free returns.
Starting point is 00:42:53 So how about that? You're not happy with it? You will be. But if you're not, free returns. Go to MVMTwatches.com slash FFootball. Step up your watch game. MVMTwatches.com slashes.com, and join the movement. Dave, let's get a sleeper.
Starting point is 00:43:10 You have breakouts, actually. So you already gave us Mike Gillisley. Tell me about Isaiah Crowell and when you're comfortable drafting Crowell. Still marching to this beat. Been doing it all offseason long. As soon as I saw that the Cleveland Browns went the way of the dallas cowboys with their offensive line they added jc treanor at center kevin zeitler at right guard i think is going to be a huge addition and when they get those two paired with joel betonio when he comes
Starting point is 00:43:36 back from his injury and joe thomas who's healthy and just hasn't played in the first two preseason games we're talking about four fifths of an offensive line that will make at least 75% of the NFL very jealous. So any running back running behind those big guys should do well. We're now going to talk about Crowell getting that opportunity after he had 240 total touches last year, and 40 of them came on catches. He had almost 1,300 yards from scrimmage. That was for a team that went 1-15. He had seven touchdowns. In a game where we're always looking for running backs who are going
Starting point is 00:44:12 to get 15 touches a week and work at the goal line, I don't think we should run away from Crowell. I think he's going to get that kind of an opportunity. I think the defense in Cleveland is going to be better. I think this team will be a little more competitive than the 1-15 squad we had last year. And I think Crowell is going to be the big benefactor. I think he's got a chance at 1,400 total yards. I think he's got a chance at nine touchdowns. And I am not shying away from taking him in round three. I loved seeing how good that Browns defense looked against the Giants' first-team offense.
Starting point is 00:44:44 And it may just be the Giants' first-team offense is garbage because of their offensive line. Because of their offensive line. But the defense looked good. And if that defense can just be competitive and keep them in games so that they can run the ball, because Hugh Jackson talked about that a lot, he was disappointed in himself in how little they ran the ball last year. He wants to run it more. That would be great for Crowell.
Starting point is 00:45:02 All right. And Crowell or the rookie running backs. Tell me, if any, which rookie running backs you're taking over Isaiah Crowell. None. None. Jamie? Yeah, no, none. Really?
Starting point is 00:45:16 All right. None. Well, I would take McCaffrey over him in PBR. Okay. I'm close to that. I'm not there yet because I still think Crowell can – he took off in receptions in the second half last year. Yeah, he did.
Starting point is 00:45:29 Okay, cool. Let's get Ty Montgomery from Heath. And again, so many more on the website, cbssports.com slash fantasy. Not only sleepers, breakouts, and busts, but also draft breakdowns, PPR, 14 teams, half PPR, 10 teams, 12 teams, like any type of draft you're doing, most likely. IDP, two quarterback, we've got a draft breakdown for you, so check it out on the website.
Starting point is 00:45:53 Ty Montgomery, Heath, a breakout or a sleeper? Which one? It can't be a sleeper because he's got a fifth-round ADP, but he's kind of, in my opinion, just the free space on the breakout board because it's not hard to say Ty Montgomery is going to do something he's never done before. He only got 77 carries last year. I'm glad that he's back at practice. Whatever was ailing him seems to be okay right now. I'll feel even better if he can get through a week and not have any problems.
Starting point is 00:46:18 He was very good running the football last year, especially in the second half. Pro Football Focus's most elusive running back from Week 9 on, averaged 5.9 yards per carry. I expect him to catch 50, 60, maybe 65 passes. I expect he'll get somewhere around 160 to 175 rush attempts. I expect he'll score seven or eight touchdowns. Ty Montgomery or Mark Ingram? Montgomery.
Starting point is 00:46:46 Ingram. I Montgomery. Ingram. I would go Ingram. Ty Montgomery or C.J. Anderson? Montgomery. Anderson. Sorry. Game rules again. I would take Anderson.
Starting point is 00:46:57 Even in PPR? Even in PPR. Okay. Look, the concern I've got with Montgomery is that he might not be able to stay healthy for 16 games. He might not be effective. We're talking about C.J. Anderson here. That's true. Fair point.
Starting point is 00:47:10 But I don't think – if C.J. Anderson stays healthy, it would take a lot for him to lose his grip on that starting job. If Montgomery stays healthy and he doesn't play well, well, Mike McCarthy can turn to his bench and he's got three rookies ready to go on the field to take over and i'm not saying like joel williams didn't look that threatening he has not looked threatening at all this preseason though what's that james he did in montgomery in the first preseason it's true and then montgomery got banged up and he couldn't even play in the second one i the packers should have tried to they tried hard to solve their running back problem they don't have a running back problem.
Starting point is 00:47:46 I think they might. I don't know. I'm not sold on Ty Montgomery being the guy all season long there. If he were, I think we'd have to talk about taking him in round three. I think to his point, though, he's falling to a spot where it makes it worth it, where he was being drafted prior to this week, especially coming into training camp, was only going to set him up to fail. Now he has a chance to, I think, deliver some sort of fair value if he falls into the fifth, sixth round.
Starting point is 00:48:12 One more breakout to talk about. It's Dave. So far we've got Jamie's sleeper was Macklin. Jamie's breakout was Snead. Jamie's bust, Allen Robinson. Heath's three breakouts were Tyra Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Sammy Watkins. Williams was a sleeper. He can't break out pathway to last year.
Starting point is 00:48:28 You know what would make me feel better about Montgomery is if I also get Jamal Williams. He needs to do it. Yeah, that's a plan you could absolutely do. In standard, I agree. In PPR, I'm afraid that Aaron Jones might be the guy. If Ty Montgomery gets hurt. I'll go back to pass protection because right now, including Montgomery, Williams is their best guy. If Montgomery gets hurt. I'll go back to pass protection because right now, including Montgomery, Williams is their best guy.
Starting point is 00:48:47 And Mike Gillisley, Dave likes. Isaiah Crowell, Dave loves. Terrell Pryor is another breakout for Dave Richard. Well, let's just do the math. Pierre Garçon last year, 1,041 yards. Deshaun Jackson last year, 1,005 yards. They combined for seven touchdowns. They combined for 214 targets.
Starting point is 00:49:06 These guys are no longer on the field in Washington. They have moved on to other places. And Terrell Pryor signing a one-year deal to come to Washington and catch passes from Kirk Cousins. The preseason has not been great to Cousins. It's been really bad to Pryor. But the door is wide open for him to play a lot, get a ton of targets on the outside, and when everybody's healthy in Washington and they get into that red zone,
Starting point is 00:49:30 Kirk Cousins has his pick of the litter between Reed, Pryor, Crowder for throws into the red zone. And I think Pryor is going to be in single coverage almost every single time because Reed is going to draw so much attention that he can dominate in the end zone, do better than seven touchdowns, which is what Garcon and Jackson had last year. And I think he's got a great shot at 1,000 yards as well. He had 1,000 yards last year in Cleveland when he caught passes from five crappy quarterbacks. Now he's moving on to Kirk Cousins. To me, this is a no-brainer. And I'm glad that there isn't a big preseason buzz and that we've seen Terrell Pryor dominate in preseason games because his value can still be had.
Starting point is 00:50:09 And even in round three, I think it's great because I think he is going to finish as a top 12 receiver. I'm sorry for interrupting you. Terrell Pryor is going early round four, Dave. That's even better. 39th overall. I want to draft with these people. I want Terrell Pryor in round three. Would you take Pryor or Hopkins? Pryor. Hopkins. 39th overall. I want to draft with these people. I want Terrell Pryor in round three. Would you take Pryor or Hopkins?
Starting point is 00:50:26 Pryor. Hopkins. Pryor. He's now going ahead of Hopkins. He's moved ahead. So is Devontae Adams, by the way. Would you take Brandon Cooks or Terrell Pryor? Pryor.
Starting point is 00:50:35 Pryor easily. Yep. Pryor. Okay. Brandon Cooks going just ahead of Terrell Pryor. Going to get to the Max Scherzer interview now, but first, let me read some sleepers and breakouts from our listeners, and you tell me agree or disagree. Robbie Anderson from Dillon.
Starting point is 00:50:51 Robbie Anderson. 100%. Sleeper. A great late round value. Take the chance on it. Ryan Willard is excited about Austin Hoopa. He's in the conversation of number two tight ends with Upside, sir. He'll be on my list.
Starting point is 00:51:04 Brian M. has Braxton Miller. Out here. No. He's in the conversation of number two tight ends with Upside, sure. He'll be on my list. Brian M. has Braxton Miller on here. No. He's hurt. Okay. And not as good as the guy they just brought in from San Francisco. Bruce Ellington. Bruce Ellington. John Downing says Darren Sproles and Chris Thompson in PPR.
Starting point is 00:51:21 Yep. Thompson too? Sure. Is there enough there? His role is not changing. That's a 14-teamer to me. Thompson too? Sure. Is there enough there? His role is not changing. That's a 14 teamer to me. He's going to catch 50 passes. He's going to be a lot like Darren Sproles.
Starting point is 00:51:33 I would say Thompson and Charles Sims are two guys if you're in a PPR league to put on your list late. This might surprise you. He had 49 catches last year. He had just over 700 total yards and five total touchdowns. It's a lot like Darren Sproles. Yeah, you're never going to know when to start him.
Starting point is 00:51:49 It's very close to Darren Sproles. You're never going to know when to start him. You're never going to care unless he's getting a lot of carries. I would rather have Sproles because I think there's more upside with him this year compared to Thompson because I just think Thompson has his role and that's that. It's going to take calamity for him to be a starter and 15 touches a week but i think with the late pick in ppr you draft him and maybe he's a bi-week guy chris murphy is still on the kevin white hype train i try i was earlier this summer i'm out
Starting point is 00:52:18 yeah don't be on that train okay get off my train ryan. Ryan says Marvin Jones is a sleeper. Yes. Interesting. It's interesting. Where he's going? Absolutely. He's basically free, right? Would you rather have Jones or Galladay? There's more upside with Galladay, but Jones is probably safer. Yes, I'd rather have Jones. If I'm going to take a chance on one, it's Galladay.
Starting point is 00:52:42 John Miro says favorite sleeper is Dave. Favorite breakout is Adam's Acne. It's not chance on one, it's Gallaudet. John Miro says, favorite sleeper is Dave. Favorite breakout is Adam's acne. It's not nice. No, it's not. I don't get that anymore. You don't get acne? Not anymore. From Caesar, Paul Richardson is a sleeper of the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:52:56 Paul Richardson. If he were healthy and he did what Cason Williams did, then maybe there would be some good reasoning for it. Well, he did it on a much bigger stage. He did, but he's not healthy now. I don't think he really has much. Well, he is healthy now. I think he's behind Tyler Lockett.
Starting point is 00:53:12 He's behind Tyler Lockett. That's the problem is that Lockett wasn't healthy when he did his big production last year. When's the last time the Seahawks had an outside receiver as a fantasy thing? Is it Korn Robinson? Is it – I just – yeah. Is there somebody I'm missing? Mike Williams?
Starting point is 00:53:30 Yeah, that's just not – It's hard to see. I do think I'm getting more worried about that Seahawks rush attack, and they may not be able to just run the ball a bunch more like they said they wanted to. Yeah. Well, I'm hoping – for me personally, as a Jimmy Graham owner already, I'm hoping that that benefits Jimmy Graham and also Doug Baldwin. I have a draft tonight. I've done most of my drafts
Starting point is 00:53:52 already. It kind of sucks. I don't know that I have any more at-night, at-home, live draft on a computer. Not with people, but I love that. It's draft night and I'm fired up. Podcast League on Monday, right. So I think I only have two more, which is kind of a bummer.
Starting point is 00:54:08 But, hey, let's do it. I want to thank Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Please stay tuned and listen to what Max Scherzer has to say. He was a really nice guy. Heath and I had a great time doing the interview. And we'll talk to you tomorrow with some busts. Enjoy Max Scherzer. Bye.
Starting point is 00:54:22 All right, what a cool guest we've got for you today. Yeah, look, Heath and I, we talk fantasy baseball all the time, but now we're going to talk fantasy football with one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals. Max, thank you so much for coming on Fantasy Football today. How are you doing, man? Good. How are you?
Starting point is 00:54:39 Thanks for having me. We're doing great. Heath, you pumped up to hang out with Max Scherzer soon? Hey, it's going to be awesome. We went to this event last year, and it sounds like it's growing in size. Great location, great reason to get together. Yes. So this is the Fantasy Football Draft event that's going to happen September 9th in D.C.
Starting point is 00:54:57 with Max and his wife, Erica. They're hosting it, the Scherzer Showdown in Washington, D.C., a live draft party at Hill Country Barbecue, which, by the way, is incredible. Ten leagues you're going to be drafting, so fantasy owners, you're going to get a chance to compete against your favorite Washington Nationals players and other local celebrities. And Heath, of course, Heath will be there, scherzershowdown.com for more details.
Starting point is 00:55:19 And the best part, all proceeds benefit the Washington Nationals Youth Baseball Academy. All right, Max, if you want to give us a little bit of background, how did this come about? How did this get set up? I did this a few years ago. Adam Wainwright, I partnered with him with Billy Impact of taking this idea and expanding it to other cities. And from there, we've taken it and tried to tailor it even more to the D.C. fan base. And I think we've grown it to a pretty good size now,
Starting point is 00:55:47 and I think fans really enjoy the experience of playing fantasy football with their favorite baseball players because every MLB clubhouse, there's always a fantasy league. So we're just as much into it as much as the fans are. I was going to ask about that, actually. So you're in a Washington Nationals Fantasy Baseball League, and if so, who's winning? Or Fantasy Football League, rather.
Starting point is 00:56:09 Who won last year, if you recall? I was on the bottom end of that. I was near the bottom of the league. I had a bad year last year. I think Chris Heise won it. It's one of those things, last year I'm trying to forget. Fair enough. Pitchers that actually have the advantage there because they've got a little bit more time to do draft prep on their days off here.
Starting point is 00:56:34 Are the hitters just terrible at fantasy football? No, it really is everybody. Everybody has their own time. The only thing is there are rules that we've had to establish that you can't make waiver claims. You can't touch your fantasy football after BP because then that would be an unfair advantage. So there are rules like that within our clubhouse because there have been pitchers in the past who will be during game
Starting point is 00:57:00 making transactions, and we've had to declare that that's illegal. Do you have NFL players that are friends of yours? And if so, do you feel obligated to draft them? Yes, I do have some NFL friends. But no, I don't feel obligated to draft them. It's all about winning. So if I don't think your team's cut out to win, you're not going to be on my team. All right, so who do you like?
Starting point is 00:57:30 Is there anybody that plays on your league on the team that's just no good at all at fantasy football? In the past two years, Strasburg has really struggled. Strasburg, he really had a poor show in the past two years. Hopefully, he just had a kid, so maybe that was probably why. You expect better and better things out of him. We give our advice all the time. You can give your advice now. Who do you really like this year that maybe is under the radar or people don't like him as much as they should?
Starting point is 00:57:54 I can't say I know who go that far, but I've got to see some preseason games before I'm ready to, you know, reveal my sleepers. And plus, I know my teammates are listening, so I really don't care to let them get any help right now. What is your take on drafting quarterbacks? Do you like to wait on quarterback? Do you take one of the other? Oh, no, no, no, no. You don't need one of those.
Starting point is 00:58:20 Where the league is now, like, no. I mean, you can get some guys deeper. You know, we were looking the other day, and you can get all the way down to like the 15th or 16th round and still get Phillip Rivers who's throwing for, you know, he's still throwing it for 3,000, 4,000 yards. So, you know, you can partner him with somebody else, and you're set at quarterback, whereas in the 15th round,
Starting point is 00:58:43 you can't get any type of running back or receiver. Definitely don't draft your quarterback. This guy knows what it's all about. So let me ask you about a D.C. guy and Kirk Cousins. I can't imagine having to deal with the – obviously he's getting a lot of money with the franchise tag, but just the uncertainty of his future and whatnot. He's playing for a lot.
Starting point is 00:59:03 I'm sure he's playing for some pride. I'm not sure if you know him or not, but what do you expect from Kirk Cousins this year? More the same. I don't think the contract situation is going to affect his on-field play. Contract stuff, that stays off the field. It has nothing to do with on-the-field products.
Starting point is 00:59:23 I've kind of been in that situation before, and so you just know that his play is not going to change because of the contract. He's not going to try harder this year than he was last year because he was already trying as hard as he could last year. I think he's going to go out there and have a great year and continue to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Okay, now last year was kind of the fad was the zero running back.
Starting point is 00:59:45 Wide receivers were coming off historic year. Everybody wanted to wait on running backs because, like you said, the passing in this league has just become unreal. Do you think that's still a good strategy, or are you still trying to get your running backs early? Yeah, I feel like you do need one. You do need one. When you have no running back, it makes it interesting trying to fill that out.
Starting point is 01:00:07 But the other way I look at it is, man, the way the NFL is how big and strong these guys are, the running backs just seem to get hurt. So the guys who you draft early in the draft don't seem to help win you a ball game, help win a fancy game in week 16 when that's when the money counts. I feel like that's the way I'm looking at this year's draft is who's going to be healthy,
Starting point is 01:00:31 who's going to win you a game in week 16. I know you're a really intense dude when you're on the mound, and I don't know how much you've seen on social media the gifs of you getting fired up on the mound, but do you get that intense during your fantasy football draft when somebody snipes one of your picks? Uh, no, I don't get that mad. Uh,
Starting point is 01:00:50 I might have some colorful language at somebody, but yeah, that's just something, uh, you know, maybe I might get that mad if I'm watching, uh, you know,
Starting point is 01:00:59 a live game and, you know, somebody drops a wide open touchdown pass. Maybe I might freak out that way. Who's your team? Who's your NFL team? Honestly, I'm a bandwagon fan. I'm admitted.
Starting point is 01:01:12 I grew up in St. Louis, and the Rams, that's when they came into town. They were really bad for a long time, and then they became the greatest show on turf. Then they got rid of everybody, and they were bad, and now they've left. I've never really had – I never felt loyal to one team in the NFL, so I've always, I jump on bandwagons, at least for at least five years. So the two teams I like are the Raiders and the Redskins. Okay, all right, so that makes sense, and that should be, there should be some fun teams to root for this year, and certainly a lot of good fantasy players.
Starting point is 01:01:45 This event, the Scherzer Showdown, again, scherzershowdown.com for the information. Scherzer will be there, obviously. Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Wieters, Taylor, Doolittle, Strasburg, Tanner Rowe. I guess you probably want to be drafting with Steven Strasburg based on what we heard earlier in this interview. Some former Redskins will be there as well. It's going to be really cool. If we could end this show, we were wondering, go off script a little bit here and ask you some fantasy baseball questions
Starting point is 01:02:12 because Heath and I love fantasy baseball. Just some general baseball questions if that's cool with you, Max. Sure. First of all, why don't baseball players play fantasy baseball the way people play fantasy football? No chance. We're competing. If I had somebody I was facing, I would need him to get a hit, and I'm having to face them.
Starting point is 01:02:33 It would never work. There's no way you can play fantasy baseball while actually playing baseball. A big part of our job in analyzing fantasy baseball is the number side of it. I know sometimes there's an argument over whether the numbers are becoming too big of a part of baseball. A big part of our job in analyzing fantasy baseball is the number side of it. I know sometimes there's an argument over whether the numbers are becoming too big of a part of baseball. What do you think about the advanced metrics and all that? I think they're great. But honestly,
Starting point is 01:02:56 you've got to take them with a grain of salt. They're not everything. This game is still played by humans, and so there is still instincts and iq and everything being able to read situations and i think that can get lost in sometimes of being able to try to quantify everything uh but at the same time what the advanced metrics can do for you they can help you know kind of isolate of things you you have control over and things you
Starting point is 01:03:21 want to try to accomplish uh i know there's definitely parts of my game of how I prepare for hitters, you know, trying to figure out what they do. And sometimes looking at the numbers is almost sometimes better than looking at the video. That's interesting. So you do a combination of the two now? Yeah.
Starting point is 01:03:39 Yeah. I take everything, you know, like I said, I take everything with a grain of salt. You know, there's times where, you know, I trust the video. I trust what I see with my eyes.
Starting point is 01:03:47 I trust my instincts and I go with my strengths. And then there's other times where, you know, I am using the best analytics I have in front of me to try to come up with a game plan that I think is going to best be suited to help get that guy out three times if I face him. So like I said, I think it's a combination of both. It's always trying to perfect when and where to use it. Let me ask you about Gio Gonzalez, man. What a year he's having. Are you going to be upset if he wins the Cy Young? Because obviously you have a great case for it.
Starting point is 01:04:24 And is there anything that Gio did differently this year to have this tremendous season? He's throwing the ball so well. He has one of the best curveballs in the game. The thing that he's doing better this year that I think you'd admit that he's doing this year is he's throwing that curveball for strikes and he's throwing his changeup
Starting point is 01:04:40 for strikes as well. When he pitches with his off-speed pitches, it makes his fastball that much better. And he's pitching with three pitches back there and sequencing guys so well right now. He's had everybody off balance, and no one puts a good swing on him. And that's why you're seeing him go out there
Starting point is 01:04:55 and be consistent this year and really work deep in the ballgames and really provide us with big innings and some big outs. Hey, Max, I know you don't play fantasy baseball, but one of the most frustrating parts for fantasy baseball players, as far as where the pitchers come from, is wins and losses and the way they get assigned to you guys, not necessarily based on how well you pitch in that game,
Starting point is 01:05:16 but just sometimes you pitch, throw seven innings, give up one run, and you lose the game. It seems like we're moving away from that a little bit in the evaluation of pitchers. We need to move away from that more, don't we? It's one of those things I've always said. Yeah. If you look over the longterm, you know, wins and losses can be some, you know, that can be misleading at times, but as, as a pitcher going into the,
Starting point is 01:05:40 you know, into the day, when you go into a start, your goal is to win the game. Like that, that's your first and foremost thing is to win the game. If you try to take that stat away and try to lessen it, you're lessening the most important thing you're trying to do that day, and that's the win. Is there a place for wins and losses? Yes. But is there also you have to take that and look at it in a different scope as well?
Starting point is 01:06:06 Yes, as well. I think everybody's doing a better job of it. I am not one to sit here and say to get rid of it because I also know that incentive of the win, that's what you pitch for. That's such a leading question from Heath. Heath has been on a crusade against wins and losses in fantasy baseball. And thank you, Max, for not giving him even more ammunition.
Starting point is 01:06:29 But obviously it can be a stat that, like you say, you have to take with a grain of salt. You said that about advanced stats, so for sure. Alright, I'm going to ask you a somewhat controversial question. I will accept a no comment, for sure. Are the balls juiced this year? My take on it is I don't care because I'm not going to cry about it.
Starting point is 01:06:51 If they are juiced, fine. There's more home runs, whatever. But, you know, I get to be the benefactor of it, too, because my team, we have a great offensive team, a lot of power hitters. So those guys would be, you know, able to hit the ball out at the same rate. I mean, we're playing underneath the same rules with the same ball. So I really don't care if it is, if it isn't, I'm not going to cry about it. Have you had to change anything? Do pitchers have to change anything knowing the home run
Starting point is 01:07:17 is so rapidly on the rise? For me, I have given up a ton of home runs over the past couple years so for me i've just tried to dial in and it's almost made me better because i because that threat of a home run is you know feels like it's always right in front of my face um that i have to execute my off-speed pitches uh just that much better and and locate all locate my fastball just that much better because the league is so good at taking any one of your mistakes and hitting over the fence. That's why I'm not
Starting point is 01:07:50 going to cry about it because in some ways it's made me a better pitcher because of how I've had to locate even better to try to prevent them. This has been a lot of fun and a great interview and thank you so much. The Scherzer Showdown is Saturday, September 9th. If you're in the D.C. area, please look into it. Go to scherzershowdown.com.
Starting point is 01:08:07 Meet Max and plenty of other Nats. And I'm jealous that Heath will be there. Max, thank you so much for coming on. Hey, thanks for having me. That's going to do it for Fantasy Football today. For Heath Cummings and Max Scherzer, I'm Adam Azer. We'll see you later.

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