Fantasy Football Today - 10 Bust-Proof Players! Drake London? Dak Prescott? George Kittle? (06/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts Dave and Jamey give you some players they consider bust-proof, but we also play devil's advocate and make bust cases for all of these guys. Let's see which arguments are more compelling! We start with George Kittle (2:30) and A.J. Brown (5:45) as bust-proof players. Do we have target concerns for these guys? We also do some wide receiver trivia (15:40) and explore the relationship between WR touchdowns and aDOT (21:30) ... News and notes (25:35) on Brandon Aiyuk and the Steelers offense. Then we look at the rest of Dave's bust-proof list which includes Dak Prescott (33:35), Mike Evans (37:30), Amari Cooper (44:00) and Drake London (47:10). Obviously Dave discusses why these players have high floors, but we also explore what could go wrong ... Jamey's bust-proof list consists of C.J. Stroud (52:15), Isiah Pacheco (57:55), Derrick Henry (1:01:30) and Mark Andrews (1:04:30). Lots of debate here! ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Well, good morning, everybody.

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. We are off tomorrow. We'll have two more shows, though, this week, Thursday, and then a Friday mailbag that we are going to prerecord on Thursday. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Jamie Eisenberg here. Talking about bus-proof players, players that we feel very confident they are safe. You are not going to get total duds from them. The good news is I strongly disagree with some of the names on these lists,

and hopefully Jamie disagrees with a few of Dave's, Dave disagrees with a few of Dave's. Dave disagrees with a few of Jamie's. And you know what? Even if they don't, I'm going to make them do it anyway because I'm going to make

you guys play devil's advocate today and say, no, this is actually why they're not bus proof. Anyway. Can I just give a disclaimer? They're all not bus proof?

Yeah, of course. Is there such a thing as bus proof? Who has been, would you say, you know, bus proof? Josh Allen's been bus proof. He's been, would you say, you know, bus proof? Josh Allen's been bus proof. He's been number one or two.

Justin Tucker. It's funny, that was the first name I thought of when I saw the email from Adam. You know, just because I'm knee deep in these top eight wide receivers. A.J. Brown feels pretty bus proof. Tyree Kill feels pretty bus proof. Who has been,

like, if we were doing this show you know looking back who has been the most bus proof players alan for aj brown and tyree kill literally yeah well no aj brown two years where he's been well i mean you're saying forever yeah yeah over the last five years. When Zeke was younger, he was bus proof. Zeke was bus proof. The rare running back that you could count on to be minimum of 10 non-PPR fantasy points. Travis Kelsey? Eight out of 10. Kelsey bus proof.

Kelsey was pretty bus proof until last year. I think that's a good call. He was the number one tight end per game last year, but he was a bus. He was a bus, I think, because he was a first-round pick. It was disappointing. I don't know if we can call him a bust. Is he a bust? Because he still finished the best player in the position.

How do we quantify who's a bust? Can you define bust so your friend doesn't yell you? I think George Kittle, who's actually on one of your guys' lists, has been bust-proof. He's been going into last year. He was top four overall in four of the previous five lists, has been bus proof. He's been going into last year. He was top four overall in four of the previous five seasons,

top four per game in five straight seasons in non-PPR. You're making my case for me. Right, but last year he wasn't. Last year he wasn't. And so we'll see. I'm forcing us to make the bus case for guys who have been pretty steady and look sort of bus-proof on paper. So why don't we start? You want to start with Kittle?

We can start with Kittle. I wasn't going to, but yeah, what the hell? All right, let's start with George Kittle. I'm going to start with one from Dave's list, one from Jamie's. We have 10 total players here. We also have some wide receiver trivia. I'll talk about the research I did with what can, if ADOT and explosive play rate can help determine touchdowns for wide

receivers. But let's start with George Kittle. Make, actually, Jamie's going to make the bust case. I'm going to make the bust case for Kittle. Dave's going to tell us which case he likes better and then tell us why we're wrong.

Go ahead, Jamie. What's the bust case for George Kittle? Well, I mean the injuries, obviously, you know, he struggled to stay healthy for a good portion of the last five seasons. And he plays on a team with two pretty explosive wide

receivers that just added the third in Ricky Pearsall, who is going to occupy the middle of the field where Kittle usually does a lot of his damage on top of, you know, Christian McCaffrey. So while he was good last year, only tied in over a thousand yards receiving, you saw some of the downside when he wasn't putting up the same type of catches and touchdowns that we're used to seeing from him. So another year like that, and the yardage goes down, then Kittle could be really in trouble. Here's my bus case for George Kittle.

It's all about targets. His target per out run rate has been pretty low the last two seasons after it was really high the previous four seasons. And in 11 games where everyone played a normal snap share, McCaffrey, Kittle, Ayuk, and Debo Samuel, George Kittle was on pace for 88 targets. He did well with those. He was on pace for 901 yards and eight touchdowns.

It's probably going to be a top five-ish tight end. But he just isn't getting targeted nearly as much. Now, we do have a Brandon Ayuke report that we'll get to, but Dave, that's the thing. He can't, he's not bus proof Dave, because he's doesn't get enough targets when everyone's on the field.

Now you go. Well, I think your case is, is better than Jamie's, but both are obviously valid. And I think we can make the injury case for pretty much everybody. This is football after all, but it's certainly more so for older players like Kittle

who have missed time. I guess it's a little bit more valid for that. He averaged 12.7 PPR points per game last year. No, that wasn't top four. That was top six. In 12 games with Debo

and Ayuk in full, he averaged 12.4. So a little notch down, 5.1 targets per game. Yes, you would like that target number to be higher, but the track record of George Kittle coming through, even though he doesn't get a ton notch down, 5.1 targets per game. Yes, you would like that target number to be higher, but the track record of George Kittle coming through, even though he doesn't get a ton of targets, he's in a crowded offense.

He still gets red zone looks. He's still somebody that Brock Purdy looks for in third down situations, red zone situations. I would expect that to continue. And his draft stock price isn't too steep. So once you get past those first five tight ends, Kittle's going to be there. That's going to be round six, round seven. I think he's worth taking the chance on them because he can still finish as a top six tight end.

All right, Jamie, who does the player you want to nominate as bus proof to start? AJ Brown. Okay. Dave, you want to make a bus case for a.j brown yes i will try to make a bus case for a.j brown let's start with what the philadelphia offense looks like now saquon barkley in the backfield they didn't add him just for funsies he's certainly going to make this team a little bit more run centric that'll take targets away from everybody in the passing game and while brown is the best receiver in Philadelphia, I wonder if the pace slows down a little bit because of Barkley there, because of Kellen Moore there. This is also a new offense that Jalen Hurts has to learn.

And I just get a little bit nervous about so many mouths to feed in that offense that A.J. Brown can't come through for another huge season like he's done the last two years. That's my bus case for A.J. Brown. My bus case for A.J. Brown is that the Eagles offense, you know, it really struggled in the second half of the season and it could carry over. But more importantly, it's last year. I was surprised at how much he dominated targets and Devante Smith just didn't take that target step in his third season. I'm thinking, or was it, I'm sorry, was it his second season, Devante Smith last year?

Last year was his third season. Okay. No. Okay. My bus case for AJ Brown would be that Devante Smith does take that step up, gets more targets. And AJ Brown is like 140, 14 target guy instead of a 158 target guy that he was, which is maybe enough to make him something more like wide receiver 10 per game than wide receiver 7 per game. And, you know, it's not a huge bust, but could be somebody that disappoints you if you take him in the first round. Both your cases were bad. Because it's hard to make a buzz case for him. The thing with him, he's third in the NFL in receiving yards the last two years in Philly behind CeeDee Lamb and Tyree Kill. And now he's getting Dave mentioned Kellen Moore seemingly as a negative.

I think that's a positive. Yeah, it is. What he's done with his number one receivers has been pretty fantastic, just the last two years alone. 9.2 targets per game, just slightly better than what A.J. Brown was last year with C.D. Lamb. 11.5 targets per game for Keenan Allen last year that led the NFL. So you're looking at 9-plus targets, which is kind of where A.J. Brown has been, so I don't think that changes.

And it might actually improve because of the routes that he'll run with Kellen Moore. Last year, he had a stretch of just ridiculous production, six straight games of 125 yards or more, which kind of boosted his, his stats clearly, but on pace for just insane numbers. If that can expand from six games to maybe what CD lamb did when he had

that 10 game finished to close the year and averaged over 28 PPR points per game. So, uh, love the setup for him. It's, it's, it's again, fun to,

uh, debate these top eight wide receivers, the story that I'm writing for the magazine and who's number one. And AJ Brown could go from 17 PPR points per game, which is where he's been in Philadelphia, basically to hopefully crossing that 20 point threshold. I feel like he's one of the safest picks in round one. So explain this one to me.

And yes, my, my entire bus case was devil's advocate BS. We love this guy. Uh, 13 games with Devante Smith and Dallas Goddard last year, AJ Brown averaged 10.1 targets per game, 19.5 PPR points per game in the games without Goddard three games, his target volume went down and his fantasy point production went way down. It was down to 12 PPR points per game. It just seems weird that that happened. So I might need somebody to try and make sense of that one. But the bottom line is that even when everybody was healthy in Philadelphia last year, this guy was getting double digit targets per game and was awesome for fantasy.

Even if he drops a full target per game, Jamie, you were talking about nine targets per game. No one should be disappointed with A.J. Brown. There's one other stat that I'm trying to look up real quick, Adam, if you can give me 30 seconds. Yeah, but I can say what I'm – you know what? I'll just let Dave continue his train of thought because I actually do have some bus concerns for A.J. Brown, and I don't think he is as safe as he's being made out to be. I think what makes him safe is the fact that he's just so good. He is such a phenomenal player. He doesn't need the targets that the other guys need because he's going to excel in yards per target. And his yak last year was actually down and he's one, he's a yak King. He is,

he's not like a Debo Samuel yak King where he catches the ball three yards from the line of scrimmage. Basically he's a rare combination of downfield thread who also can make you miss and, and you know, get plate yards after the cat. So AJ Brown is so damn good. I have one more, I have one more concern or two more that I want to bring up, Dave, when you're done. You ready? Okay.

So he had seven touchdowns last year. When you break it down into the red zone, he, for the seven came into play. Does that get affected by Saquon Barkley being there? Could it possibly be that AJ Brown continues this great target share with lots of catches and lots of yards, but maybe only like five touchdowns when it's all said and done this year. I mean, they had 15 rushing touchdowns from their quarterback. So I would assume those don't all carry over to be the same as well. Okay. But can you look at him and say, all right, this is a guy who can get double digit touchdowns. Yes, he's done it in Tennessee. So why can't you do in Philadelphia? Because they don't throw that many touchdowns

in Philadelphia. That was what I was going to. Yeah. But again, you're changing coordinators. Okay. But you still have a rushing quarterback. You're changing coordinators, but you're adding Saquon at running back, and I think the philosophy is still going to be to lean on Ertz when you're inside the five at least. Did he score? Either way, it's not A.J. Brown. He scored 11 touchdowns in 2022.

He scored seven last year. But I do think that a team that's thrown 24 and 25 touchdown passes He scored 11 touchdowns in 2022. He scored seven last year. But I do think that a team that's thrown 24 and 25 touchdown passes over the last two seasons, and that's just kind of sometimes what you get with these mobile quarterbacks that run for a lot of touchdowns, I think that puts some bust. I think that puts some bust potential into A.J. Brown's profile because he only had seven touchdowns last year.

And actually, per game, he was 12th per game in non-PPR. He was 10th per game in half PPR. He was seventh per game in full PPR. He had 106 catches. But there's that. And also, I don't think it's just a foregone conclusion that he's going to get double digit targets. I don't see why Devontae Smith couldn't have

a more closer to equal target share. I don't know. Because they won't move't have a more, you know, closer to equal target share. I don't know. Because they won't move Smith around as much as they'll move Brown around. Yeah, but we saw it in two years ago. The last nine games of the year, Devontae Smith was on pace for more targets. He was getting more targets per game than A.J. Brown. But that's in snaking Bob Cotter, right? In Kellen Moore's offense, the way that they'll use a.j brown will allow him to

still be in that role because he'll play more inside it's not that like it's not so much the role it's just you know look are they going to put him in the slot because you mentioned keenan he's not gonna be their slot guy though no no no he's not going to be their slot guy but they will move him around the formation they can move both around the formation too. But they will not move Smith around as much as they will AJ Brown. I mean, that's just the way that they use those guys. Entirely possible that that's true. I'm, I'm trying to see if I can find out the difference between Devante's target share with and without Goddard. I mean, I can find it. Do we have the time for that? It doesn't really matter. I just think that, I just think that if you sit here

and predict target share for Philadelphia receivers, I am not so confident that A.J. Brown is going to dominate like he did last year. Because we were drafting Devontae Smith. Devontae Smith was a bust because he just didn't get targeted enough. It looked like he was going to get more targets, and it was just all A.J. Brown last year.

I don't think they gave him the extension that they gave him when they didn't have to, to give him less targets. No, he got, he got a lot of, look, I don't think they're going to sit there and go,

all right, well today we're going to give this guy this many targets. But if Devante Smith takes a step up and has like a real breakout season, it would probably come at the expense a little bit of A.J. Brown. I don't think they're sitting here going, well, we have to give A.J. Brown a team game. That's certainly true,

but I don't know why that wouldn't have happened already when they have A.J. Brown still on the roster. Okay. It's fair. I mean, obviously you don't see it as much of a threat, and that's why he's bus proof for you. Check out the Fantasy Football Today Dynasty podcast. There is one today,

and on Friday. It is a twice a week show. And there's a separate feed for it. If you want to subscribe to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty, you can also watch that show and all of our content at youtube.com slash fantasy football today. We're going to take a break. We got some wide receiver trivia.

When we come back, we got some news and notes and more bus proof players after this. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life.

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Must be legal drinking age. All right, Jamie is excited to give us some wide receiver trivia. Let's go. What do we got? All right, here's the first one. Last year, CeeDee Lamb became the fourth player in NFL history with at least 125 receptions and 10 touchdown catches in the same season. Can you name the other three? And I'll give you two clues.

All of them have happened since 2002. One player did it twice. And one of the three players is still active. Cooper cup. That's one. 125 catches and 10 touchdowns. Yes. In the same season.

It's I want to guess some of Peyton's wide receivers from when he was rolling. Wait, no, but what was the hint you just gave? One of them is still active. But I thought he said it was, what did you say, Jamie? What was the hint? Since 2002. Oh, 2002. Okay. All right. Sorry. Go ahead. So I'll guess Demarius Thomas and Marvin Harrison. Marvin Harrison is one. Demaryius Thomas is not. Oh, did Michael Thomas get 10 touchdowns?

I'll guess Michael Thomas. No. You're missing the one player who's done it twice. Devontae Adams. No. No. I'm thinking it's somebody who's not in the league anymore. Is that right, Jamie?

Correct. Steve Largent. This is just a guess. It's Larry Fitzgerald? No. I'm sure he had a ton of catches. Terrell Owens. No. I'm going to say no on that. Calvin Johnson. No.

I give up. I don't think Moss ever did. A lot of catches. Who is it? Antonio Brown. He did it twice in 2014 and 2015. Harrison was 2002 and Cooper Cup 2021. All right, next question.

Last year, Tyree Kill became the third player in NFL history to register more than 110 receptions in three consecutive seasons. Can you name the other two who have done it? No. Could this be Larry Fitzgerald? That's a good guess. Not Larry Fitzgerald. Antonio Brown?

Antonio Brown is one, yes. You got to get the other two. The other person, sorry. Screw that. Active or not active? Not active. I'm going to say Marvin Harrison. No. two. The other person. Sorry. Active or not active? Not active. I'm going to say Marvin Harrison. No.

No. Marvin Harrison Jr. Hopefully. Three years? Three years consecutively or three years? Three years consecutively. Steve Largent? No.

Since 2007. Did Welker do it? Wes Welker, 2007. Yeah, Dave.'s a good guy. Did Welker do it? Wes Welker, 2007. Yeah, Dave. Okay, what else? What's next? Okay, question three. Justin Jefferson is the NFL's all-time leader in yards per game at 98.3.

Can you name who is number two and what the yardage is? Julio Jones. No. Yes, it is. I was so confident in that one. Number two in yards per game. Antonio Brown. Nope.

Julio Jones. Nope. Really? Hmm. Not Jamar Chase. Nope. Active or not active? Not active. In the Hall of Fame. Not Jamar Chase. Nope. Active or not active? Not active.

In the Hall of Fame. Not active. Moss. Moss is a good guess. Not Moss, though. Not Moss. No. Chris Carter.

No. I actually saw him this morning. Dropping off my son at FAU basketball camp. He was walking around campus. Schaefer's just going to guess Vikings. I was just making fun of Schaefer there. I don't know. Who is it, Jamie?

Calvin Johnson. And the difference is pretty glaring. Justin Jefferson, number one all-time, 98.3 yards. Calvin Johnson, number two, 86.1. That's how good Justin Jefferson is. Wow. All right, last question. There have been 39 times in NFL history where players caught at least 15

passes in a game. Three of them happened last season. Can you name the three who did it? Keenan Allen. Yep. 15 CD. Nope. See,

he didn't have 15 in the game. Nope. All of them happened in the first five weeks of the year. I missed the question. I was, what was the question? 15 or more catches in a single game. It's happened 39 times in NFL history.

Three times last year, three times last year. I can start spewing names. Yeah. Wait, Dave said Keenan Allen, right? Yes.

Oh, Alvin Camara. Uh, no. He had 13. He had 13. He had 13. Amon Ra? Nope.

15. Pittman? Did Pittman have a 15-catch game? Nope. Like a bunch of eight-yard catches. Did Puka get it? Was it Julio Jones? No, not Julio. Who said Puka? Oh, Puka. That's a good guess. Yeah Did Puka get it? Was it Julio Jones? No, not Julio.

Who said Puka? Oh, Puka. That's a good guess. Yeah, Puka. Yep, Puka did it. Okay. Dave said that, but I... I have one more guess

and then I'm not going to guess anymore. Go ahead, Dave. Nico Collins. No. Okay. Yeah. I thought he had a big catch game. I'm bad at this.

I'm going to say Tyreek Hill. Nope. Okay. Yeah. I thought he had a big catch game. I'm bad at this. I'm going to say Tyreek Hill. Nope. Okay. Then I'm going to stick with him. I have a feeling we're going to be like, oh, yeah, when you say this. Go ahead. DJ Moore. No.

It's actually the only one of the three that scored a touchdown in the game, and he had three of them. It was Jamar Chase. Oh, wow. Oh, yeah. Against Arizona. It was like a 51-point game for him. All right.

Thank you for embarrassing me, Jamie. Yeah, now you know what it feels like. Yeah, yeah, seriously. Wait till I tell you about softball in a little bit. So wide receivers and touchdowns. I wanted to see if there was a correlation between ADOT and or explosive play rate and touchdown catches for wide receivers. I figured there was.

First of all, I would say that there's definitely, and I did not like further research this, but I feel very confident saying it. There's definitely a correlation between ADOT and explosive play rate. And I think, you know, you could label a guy as not making big plays, say he's not explosive, when really he's just not being used the right way. I would look at a guy like Michael Pittman, for example, where he just doesn't making big plays, say he's not explosive, when really he's just not being used the right way. I would look at a guy like Michael Pittman, for example, where he just doesn't make

big plays. I don't really think it's his fault. His ADOT is just way too low. But all right. So I kind of use 50 targets. I always look at wide receivers with 50 or more targets. There are usually 80 to 90 of those every year. And over the last five years, 38.3% of wide receivers with 50 or more targets have had a single digit ADOT. Okay. 38, let's just say 38% have had a single digit ADOT of wide receivers with 50 or more targets. But when you look at wide receivers who have caught eight or more touchdowns, only 22.5% of those wide receivers have had a single digit ADOT over the last five years. So I looked at that and said, hey, there are pretty significantly more wide receivers that have a single digit ADOT when you look at the full group

of 50 or more targets compared to just the ones who caught eight or more touchdowns. I do think I can look at that and say, you don't, you want wide receivers with double digit a dots. They're more likely to score touchdowns. There are plenty of exceptions. Devante Adams and Cooper cup had like 15 and 18 touchdown seasons or something like that with single digit a dot. So I'm certainly not saying it's a prerequisite, but I think it absolutely helps these wide receivers. They don't have to be like digit a dot so i'm certainly not saying it's a prerequisite but i think it

absolutely helps these wide receivers they don't have to be like high a dot guys but just not low a dot guys um i think it helps you know and it's something you might want to consider because we're always kind of vexed by predicting predicting touchdowns oh michael pitman he only got four i know i make this about pitman a lot i guess but, but I think ADOT is a big part of it. So I would add that to your profile if you're trying to predict wide receiver production. You don't want guys with super low ADOTs, in my opinion, at least for touchdown purposes.

So the first thing that I did, I wanted to see what the league average was for wide receivers on ADOT, and it's 10.6 among qualifying wideouts. Okay. So 49 different wide receivers have a double-digit ADOT. That was last year. I can look up previous years if you want to.

No. But then I started looking at some of the receivers that did have a single-digit ADOT last year. Here are some names, and I'm cherry-picking on this. CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nakua, Jamar Chase, Zay Flowers, Michael Pittman. You mentioned him. Amonra St. Brown. I don't know if ADOT is the end-all, be-all.

Let me give you some receivers that had high ADOTs last year. DJ Chark, Gabe Davis, Rashid Shahid. DeAndre Hopkins was sixth in ADOT last year. We don't even look at players like the super high ADOT guys. That's why we never should have trusted Gabe Davis. If you have a 15 plus ADOT, you're probably not going to be a good consistent fantasy player. So is there a sweet spot in ADOT?

I don't know. 11-ish? It could be 9 to 11. No, I think that's too low. I think plenty of receivers are in the 12, 13 range, even 14, and they're great. I just think if you get a guy that's too low. I think plenty of receivers are in the 12, 13 range, even 14, and they're great. I just think if you get a guy that's too low in ADOT, it's hard for them to make a lot of big plays.

That's kind of what I would say. Rasheed Rice's ADOT last year was 4.8. Yeah, and you play in PPR, a low ADOT might be good. You might not care about the touchdowns. Debo's was 6.6. Right, Debo's is always low. But you might not care about the touchdowns if youbo's was 6.6. Debo, right. Debo's is always low. But you might not care about the touchdowns

if you're playing. But this is, I think, certainly more for non or half PPR. Low ADOT could be a lot of catches, might not help you as much, but maybe not as many touchdowns.

Maybe not as many yards. All right. News and notes. What do you guys make of this Brandon Ayuk stuff here? Because he would certainly, if he got traded, that would make George Kittle bus proof.

It would make Deebo Samuel probably a second round pick. Make Ricky Pearson a sixth round pick. Might make Iuke a second round pick, depending on where he goes. But he told Jaden Daniels, who used to be his teammate, which is just kind of funny to think about at Arizona State, that the 49ers don't want him back. I guess it wasn't

clear if he meant this year or after his contract would theoretically expire. But Jamie, what do you make of this Iuke stuff? I mean, look, until either a contract or be franchise tag slash, you know, he's done, this is going to be a story, you know, for the remainder of his time in San Francisco, again, barring a contract extension. So the writing has been on the wall. You know, I, I think the, the, the draft pick of Pierce hall was to protect themselves in case they have to move on or want to move on from my UK. And I mean, clearly he wants to get paid as he sees all these receivers getting these big contracts. So, um, we're not be surprised if there's still a deal that, that gets made. You

wonder if the 49ers are going to play this out and if for whatever reason they get off to a slow start or are struggling and somebody, and now you get playing well and they want to, you know, get some draft picks for him, they could certainly go into the season and try and trade him, you know, to a contender that's looking to acquire a wide receiver. Washington makes a ton of sense. You know, if that's the destination because of, you know, their, uh, their ability to, you know, want to put, you know, a talented player around a young quarterback. Uh, I'm sure there's any number of suitors that would want Brandon Ayuk on their team. So it's, it's, it's something to keep an eye on.

It's obviously something that's going to impact his dynasty value, depending on where he goes one way or the other. Clearly it's going to impact Brock Purdy as well. And like you said, you know, George Kittle and Debo Samuel and Ricky Pearsall will also potentially benefit if, if Ayuk is moved. But as of now, you know, it seems as if he's going to stick with the 49ers for this year. I interpret it to be more long-term as opposed to short-term. So I think it's more, they don't want to pay me. I'm going to play this year out and then I will hopefully be set free

and have the opportunity to get one of these big deals. And why would they give them away for like a second day pick in the draft? Um, now why would they do it now? Right before training camp starts, their Superbowl window is still wide open. They can win a ring with this guy. They were, you know, they, they went to overtime last year in the Superbowl.

It would make sense for them to keep by you this season and then let them go. Unless a team comes along with a really big offer form and all off season, no team step forward. I don't think it's going to change this season. So I think IU

could play out the string in San Francisco. I think they'll use him a lot. I think he has a chance to be very good. Ladd McConkie signed his rookie deal. It gives him the most

guaranteed money ever in NFL history for the 34th overall pick. Jamie said, I made a bad trade for Ladd McConkie. I gave up Stefan Diggs and a second round pick for Ladd McConkie. That's how you made a bad trade.

I said you gave up a little too much. I told him the exact same thing. I think you said bad trade. But what he said was that I, let me see. I've been actually looking at my phone for bad trade. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong about this. But anyway, he said I should have given up Stefan Diggs

and a third round pick for McConkie instead of Stefan Diggs in a second round pick. I said the pick was 211. It's two picks away from being a third round pick. So I don't know how bad it is. It's not your third round pick, though. Your third round pick would be toward the back end of round three. No, my third round pick was in the middle of round three because this was a pick that I acquired. It's 21 11. Let's see. He said, you gave up too much. What a trade for Dan Adam,

just giving players away. I mean, he gave McBride away too. I gave him up for neighbors. I'm rebuilding. I'm rebuilding. Not as an additional first round pick. Just we swapped. You swapped first round picks. You gave up McBride.

I got a second round pick that I turned into. That's what he had to do to get neighbors. And I turned a second round pick into McConkie. If neighbors, if listen, if neighbors ends up being at this time next year, a first rounder and startup dynasty. Yeah.

I don't hate the trade. Yeah. But if he's not bad. He's the best guy in football. No, he can't. No chance. I don't think he'll be.

He'll be close. We like him top four. I don't think he'll be. He'll be close. We like him top four. I don't think he'll be the best tight end. Although I did watch his red zone snaps yesterday. He's not bad. He's not bad at all. Drake London said rookie receiver Casey Washington is killing it for the Falcons. So that's not a name that's been on anyone's radar.

Don't know that it has to be. Mark, I mentioned what Mark Cabaly said about Calvin Austin yesterday, the athletic writer for the Steelers. Well, I don't know if he's athletic. He writes for the athletic. But he also said that nobody performed better and more consistently for four weeks than Pat Friermuth. And he said that you couldn't ask for much more out of Russell Wilson

during OTAs and minicamp. But he also listed rookie offensive tackle Troy Fatanu as a loser just because he's not really playing with the ones right now. Yeah. That could always change. Kabaly is definitely more athletic than you. He can smash a softball farther than you can. Devontae Adams, guys. What's that?

I was going to say that Pat Fryermuth is somebody that should be on the radar as a late rounder. Could be second on the Steelers and targets. Devontae Adams nicknamed Brock Bauer as a BM. It stands for businessman. But I think he probably could have picked a better nickname. Like, yeah, that's BM. He could have called him SOB for standing on business. Pete Prisco's top 100 list is out.

Do you know who the number two player in his top 100 is? Devontae Adams could have called him a person is a serious stud. Who's number one on Prisco's list? His number one is Mahomes. Who's number two on Prisco's top 100? Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett is the... Who's number three? Prisco's top two? Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett. Miles Garrett is the...

Who's number three? Number three, I think, was Trent Williams. Correct. Correct. Oh, you knew this. And I actually don't have Prisco's number somehow, but I was going to text him and tell him he's crazy for leaving Andrew Thomas out of the top 100.

But, Jamie, I need his number. The Giants signed running back Jacob Salyers out of the UFL, and we have now our bus-proof players. It's been long enough. The person who gets to go first. You didn't bring up the Lions' new kicker? I mean, come on. Oh, right, also in the UFL.

From the UFL. Our bus-proof players, who gets to go first is whoever gets closest to guessing the softball score from last night. So you guys are one and what? No, we didn't. We're a winless. We're winless. Winless?

And you played first place team? I have no idea. No, I think we played like a normal middle of the pack team. What's the mercy rule in your league? Well, you have to play five innings. After five innings, I think if it's 10 runs,

it's a mercy rule. 23 to one. You get to play five innings. After five innings, I think if it's 10 runs, it's a mercy rule. 23 to 1. Yeah, you get to play five innings. I mean, you want to play. Okay, so Dave said 23 to 1. Jamie? I'll say 32 to 3. Dave, you are the winner.

We lost only 17 to nothing last night. So, Dave, good job. We had a double play turn on us, which is rare. That's the first double play, I think. Then we had... On the ground or in the air? On the ground.

The guy running didn't... He thought there were two outs, so he kind of stopped. Was the guy running you? No. But then we had, a couple innings later, a triple play turned on us.

Oh, no. Triple play, which I was partially responsible as the third base coach for giving bad instructions. Oh, my God. Anyway, Dave, you're up. You already gave us two. Are you having fun? Am I having fun?

I'm having the time of my life. I absolutely love it. Did you go over? Over one. He's only getting one at bat. Are you playing second base still? Still playing second base. E4.

E4 permanent second baseman. You made another error? No, no. I was fine last night. You can call me E4. It's fine. All right. Bus proof players.

Dave Dak. We're going to have to go a little faster here. Dave Dak Prescott. All right. Jamie, what's your bus case for Dak Prescott? CeeDee Lamb gets hurt. It's a hard one, right? This is a hard one to come up with. Yeah, they discover a run game, and Jerry Jones decides,

we're not playing Dak, so we're going to run the ball with Rico Dowdle every play. And, uh, Dak struggles to repeat his numbers from a year ago. All right, here's my bus case. I was scrambling to come up with something, but actually this, I think is not bad. He averaged 30.3 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues against the NFC East. The Eagles could easily get better. They spent their first two picks on corners. They brought in Vic Fangio. The commanders brought in Dan Quinn.

The Giants have a new defensive coordinator as well, and they got Brian Burns. Maybe he doesn't just beat up on the NFC East. That would be my bus case. And then he'd still be good, but he'd be a little disappointing. Dak Prescott, Dave. Three of the Cowboys' first four games this year are against NFC South defenses, not named Carolina. So I think he can get off to a pretty good start. And I almost wonder if it's the Cowboys' defense that ends up

being one that takes a step backward in the NFC East, which might force Dak to chase points in the second half of some divisional games. And that would keep me optimistic that he can still put up some good numbers. Might not be the way that we like it, and there might be more turnovers, but I still think that he'll be good. He's been very good, over 20 fantasy points per game each of the last three years. There have been pockets in those years where he's just been let off the chain. That was the case last season after the bye. Cowboys just said, you know what? Let's go all in on Dak and CeeDee Lamb and see what happens. And it helped them get into the playoffs. He averaged 29 fantasy points per game in 11 games after the buy. And I think that they can continue to do that. I think he's got that nice safe floor

of let's call it 21 fantasy points. It's not great, but you're also not drafting Dak with a top six QB. He's not going to be a top six QB. You're not going to get them with one of your first six picks. He's going to end up being a very good value who can help put points on your scoreboard every single week. One thing just to mention the offensive line could be bad. I don't know. It's going be bad. I don't know. It's going to change.

I don't think that's going to be the case, but they are replacing some big pieces. Well, Tyron Smith, they've had to replace for spurts in the past. And I think it was like three years ago when whenever Smith was out, Dak was terrible. I think that's changed since. I think that they've added enough pieces to that offensive line where it's definitely younger and could definitely be better. Here's a point I forgot to make. Jamie, you mentioned the run game. Dallas finds a run game. What if they don't? It's the Dak show. You talked about how, who were we just talking about?

How you just overload the player. He's in a contract. You're just going to give him a ton of work. I said this about Najee yesterday. Okay. So Najee could be one of those guys. Maybe Iuke is one of those guys. Dak's in the contract here too. Do the Cowboys let him walk after the season? They don't want to pay him $6 million.

No, they're not letting him walk. I'd be surprised. Maybe they could, but maybe they just let him roll. I think he's a pretty good call as bus proof. He doesn't run that much anymore, but no, he's, you said 21,

22 points per game in four of the last five seasons, that Prescott has averaged 24.2 or more fantasy points per game, which is just terrific. And I'm taking 10% off that. Yeah. He only has had one bad season in the last five years. And it was this weird season, 2022,

where he just threw a lot of interceptions. I think I wish he had another weapon, but I think it's obviously it's a great call as bus proof. All right. Next up on Dave's bus proof list is. Oh, this one. I have to vehemently disagree with Mike Evans. Jamie, you can go first. Make the bus case on Mike Evans. He's old. Too old. Exactly's too old. It's exactly it.

Two days in a row. Yeah, I know. We just talked about Evans. But is there anything other than age, do you think, Jamie, that you'd make a bus case for? A better Chris Godwin, more involved Chris Godwin

playing in the slot. We saw that in the second half of last season when Godwin started to be more involved. Evans' number started to trickle down in the wrong direction. The addition of McMillan, I think will help on the outside for the bucks and may take away a little

bit of what Mike Evans is. I wonder Dave, just if you're, were you thinking like, he's just not going to finish outside the top 24 because that's kind of been his track record or that he's going to stay in the same range that he's at right now. Oh,

what do you mean? As far as my bus still being a number two receiver? No, he's bus proof. I think that he's, that now. Oh, what do you mean? Like by bus, still being a number two receiver. No, he's bus proof. I think that he's... That's what I'm saying, bus proof. I'm saying that he won't because he's never finished. No, he'll be a number two wide receiver with 15 PPR, 14 to 15 PPR points per game.

Okay, so not that he'll just finish as a number two receiver. He's not going to turn into 11.5 PPR points per game. Got you. Yeah, I mean, look, we've seen how he's not going to turn into 11.5 ppr points per game yeah got you um yeah i mean look we've we've seen how he's performed but if he does not get to his thousand yards and 10 touchdowns it could be a disaster for him i have sorry my my you know i have a lot of concerns obviously the age but if i'm playing a different card here it's that he had a 24 24.% target share, 25.3% target per out run rate. Both were his highest since 2016.

I think just naturally that's going to come down. And you don't have a 5,000-yard passing offense like you used to. You have a 4,000-yard passing offense with 28 touchdowns. He had 46.4% of his team's touchdown catches last year. I think he overperformed last year. And I do expect a lot more from Chris Goblin like Jamie. percent of his team's touchdown catches last year i think he overperformed last year and you know i do expect a lot more from chris goblin like jamie and i worry about baker mayfield this guy's career has been a roller coaster we saw it with gino smith last year and i think it really hurt dk metcalf

you know he goes gino went from a really good 22 to a kind of 23 if mayfield goes back to being an unpredictable unreliable, inaccurate quarterback could really hurt Evans. I think there's a lot of bus potential here for Evans. Are you bringing up Dino Smith because of Canales? No, I'm bringing up Dino Smith because, because I mean,

it makes sense to me to do it. Yeah. And sure. I mean, I know they, but you know, they both had a good year under Canales and then Dino struggled without him. But I just think that baker mayfield's profile

has been so truthfully bad at times that i can't rely on that he could be much worse than he was last year all right so let's just start with that i we know that mike evans has worked with a myriad of quarterbacks over the course of his career and some some of them have been outstanding. Tom Brady was certainly great, but it was older Tom Brady, not Tom Brady in his prime. It's been Jameis Winston when he throws a ton of interceptions. It was Baker Mayfield last year when Baker had a bounce-back year, and he still managed to have a ton of great seasons, including at least 1,000 yards every single year.

Let's talk about Godwin. You brought him up because last year he was not great, 12.3 PPR points per game. In the two years prior, Godwin averaged anywhere from 14.9 to 16.8 PPR points per game. And Mike Evans was still at minimum 15 PPR points per game each of those two seasons. I'm not expecting Mike Evans. I'm repeating what I said on Monday, which is why Mike Evans isn't a top 12 wide receiver for me. I think he's a very good number two wide receiver. Who's going to get plenty of targets, certainly touchdown opportunities. Hopefully he comes through

with double digit touchdowns. Like he has three of the past four seasons. I don't know if that's necessarily a lock-in, but I think he's still going to get good stats from week to week and still come through with an average that gives him 14, 15 PPR points per game. That's a safe floor, even though he's 31 years old, even though he's coming off of a tremendous year, I still think he's very bus proof and someone that you can reliably take. I'd look late round three on Mike Evans as a bus proof wide receiver too. I think that's an important distinction because we, Jamie and I had that show. We lumped him in with eight other wide receivers and said that you could see them go in any order. And it wouldn't shock me if someone took Mike Evans in the middle of round two. And it wouldn't shock me if someone took Mike Evans at the end of round three.

And I think the expectations for a player in those spots are so different that he could be a bust if you took him in round two, but, and finished as like wide receiver 20 or something. But if that happened, if you took him in round three, that, you know, because by an NFC ADP, Mike Evans is wide receiver 18. It's actually is, it may not feel like a big difference, but it is a pretty big difference. I think, you know, a, a mid round two pick in a late round three pick in terms of my expectations anyway. So I don't know if that makes sense, but it could just be about, you know, where he ends up going. All right. We got to take a break here and we'll get to Amari Cooper and Drake London when we come back on Fantasy Football today. Just like that? Just like that. How about dinner with my third cousin? Skip it. Prince Fluffy's favorite treats? Skippable.

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You can now make the first move or not. With opening moves, you simply choose a question to be automatically sent to your matches. Then sit back and let your matches start the chat. Download Bumble and try it for yourself. Okay, let's go to Amari Cooper, 30 years old. Yesterday, I cannot believe that, Dave, you forgot to wish Amari Cooper a happy birthday. That is pathetic. Whose birthday is tomorrow?

Whose birthday is tomorrow? Whose birthday is tomorrow? I don't know. It's a national holiday, so it'd be pretty cool if you had a birthday on a national holiday, in my opinion. Not just a birthday, a 40th birthday tomorrow. That's right. That's right. I'm getting old, folks.

Turning 40. Jamie, remember when you used to make fun of us for turning 40? That was like 20 years ago. What's it like to be middle-aged? You're there. Oh, it's the worst. Welcome. Yeah, yeah.

All right, Amari Cooper is a bus proof according to Dave. Jamie, give us a devil's advocate. Give me a bus case for Cooper. We saw what it was like when Deshaun Watson was not healthy and Joe Flacco was not there. Deshaun Watson is coming back from a shoulder injury and Joe Flacco is not there. I know Jameis Winston is now the new backup quarterback there, which should help. But it was pretty ugly for Mark Cooper when it wasn't Flacco or Watson under center.

They add another piece to the puzzle with Jerry Judy, who, if he does start to understand how to play in the NFL at the level that he's capable of, is another pretty big mouth to feed when you have David Njoku and Elijah Moore and I think a more pass happy offense which could involve the running backs a little bit more than we're used to seeing with Nick Chubb uh there's a great highlight that was circulating in minicamp from Jerome Ford catching a pass down the field uh but in any event um Cooper's targets go down uh father time starts to kick in Deshaun Watson not healthy. Amari Cooper could be a big bust. Yeah, my bust case would be kind of similar to Evans in that this is a guy who at a pretty old age for a wide receiver last year had kind of a career

season. Career high in yards per target, career high in yards per route run, and a career high in A. Yeah, career high in A. too, so that could help. But I think he takes a step back on an efficiency basis. And then, yeah, if Jerry Judy takes away targets, the Sean Watson concerns. But that's my bus case.

Not a very compelling one, because I see where you're going, Dave. He's pretty good value. Go ahead. You both struggled because you didn't say the magic H word, which is holdout. He didn't say the magic H word, which is holdout. He didn't participate in mini camp. If there's a holdout that extends into training camp with Amari Cooper, then that could definitely be the biggest reason why Amari Cooper could bust because he's not in shape. He's not there with the team. He's not getting in sync with the quarterbacks, et cetera, et cetera. But we've seen it. He's he, my, my argument for Amari

Cooper is bus proof is very much like the Mike Evans case, but on a lower level because he's had at least 13 PPR points per game each of the last three years. Last year, though, just the upside play with Deshaun Watson in weeks one through three and then nine and ten. It's only five games, small sample size, 17.6 PPR points per game. Still average 15.1 on the season. Had some monster catches from Joe Flacco over the course of the year when Flacco was under center. That makes me a little bit more encouraged that if Watson does miss time, Jameis can hit Amari Cooper on those throws. I still think he's going to be the number one guy. I think we know what Jerry Judy is at this point. And I still think that he will still command plenty of targets as the number one guy, great route runner, still showed speed last year. We saw that on those big plays. And he doesn't have the same type of upside.

I'd be surprised if he averaged anywhere near 17 PPR points per game this season. But I think he can get you around 13.5 to 14.5. And you're getting him, is it like two rounds after mike evans and adp it's just yeah two to three it's incredible value for a receiver that a lot of people just kind of look at and go eh i i don't think you should say eh i think you should say okay i'm gonna take this guy because i think he can get some good stats with some smash weeks mixed in all right let's go to drake london drake london would would kill for for like a bad amari cooper season drake london has not been a top 40 receiver per game yet

um and yet we're calling him bus proof dave richard all right jamie make the devil's advocate case give me a bus case for drake london 2022 and 2023 and yeah i will say my bus case for him is Michael Pittman in 2022, where Pittman was going at the 2-3 turn, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, and he finished as wide receiver 21 per game in full PPR. He had 99 catches, but he just didn't do a lot, didn't really do anything with those catches. And I,

I, you know, I like London. I'm, this is a fake bus case, but he hasn't been great at comparing these two receivers. I do. I do.

Yeah. Because there are not guys who have done a lot with their targets. So you can't just say, Oh, well, they're going to be getting a lot of targets because they may, they may not make them count. I believe in London,

but my argument would be, he's been a terrible yak guy. And just because we think he's going to get a lot of targets, it doesn't mean he's going to turn them into fantasy points. Yeah. I mean the, the, the counter to that while supporting your argument would be what Garrett Wilson has done because he's had bad quarterback play has gotten the

targets, has done stuff with them at times. And Drake London has not, despite similar bad quarterback play. Now I would argue that Garrett Wilson's quarterback plays been better, which isn't saying very much, but that kind of should make you a little bit concerned about Drake London.

And, and I think I I'm probably the most excited about London. I know I have him as a mid round to pick and I'm expecting him to take a big step forward. So he's become a round two pick for me by default, because I have a hard time finding wide receivers that I really love taking. When you get to the back end of round two, he's in that mix for sure. Uh, this is a stat that I think I've talked about before on the show, but I wanted to bring it up again. And this is what makes me encouraged to draft Drake London. It has everything to do with Kirk Cousins and his history with wide receivers, the track record, whenever he's had at

least seven targets to a wide receiver, that's a low number. And it's in an offense. That's going to be very similar to what Atlanta runs this year. The results have been great. Let me give you an example from last year, 10 times, a wide receiver with Kirk Cousins had at least seven targets. They reached 15 or more PPR points, eight of 10 times. That's 80%. The year before they hit 15 or more PPR points, 18 of 27 times. That's two thirds of the time in his four years in Minnesota, two different coordinators, but both West coast offenses, just like the type of offense that he's expected to run in Atlanta. Now a wide receiver has had at least seven targets from Kirk cousins, 86 times 61 of those 86 times, at least 15 PPR points, 53 of 86 times, at least 18 PPR points. I think there will be numbers there. I know London isn't Justin

Jefferson. I know he's not Stefan Diggs, but I still think he can get enough volume because it might not be seven. It could be eight targets per game to be the top guy in Atlanta. I don't think anybody's going to be shocked by that. And with the catches counting for what they are in full PPR, I think he can get to 15 plus pretty regularly, better, better quarterback, better quality of target and good opportunity to be there. I don't think Kyle Pitts is going to take targets away. I don't think Washington was the receiver that you brought up, Adam. I don't think he or Darno Mooney will take big target volume away. And Bijan might end up being second on the team in targets.

It might not even be Pitts, but I think London will be number one. It makes me feel good about taking him and believing that he will have a safe fantasy floor, which he's never had before. It's not just the quarterback. It's also the coordinator. I mean, Zach Robinson was on the same staff that helped develop Cooper Cup and obviously helped Puginacua have a breakout rookie season. And don't forget about what Demarcus Robinson even did, you know, so he's gotten the, he's been on a staff that's helped develop, you know, some great wide receiver production. And so now's the time for Drake London to go out and prove it. So I still feel like he's got a bigger bus case than being bus proof,

but I love the setup for him to be a breakout 30 year receiver. I love the call on him having a high floor, because even if you look at Pittman, you know, Pittman had a bad season, you know, like really bad in terms of yards per catch yards per target that 2022 season, but he still was wide receiver 21 because he did get a lot of targets per game, and he did

get a lot of catches. London will be better than what Pittman did that year in terms of efficiency. Again, you keep bringing up those two players. Pittman never had a quarterback as capable as Cousins. He had Carson Wentz who was trying to still maintain his

footing in the NFL. Phillip Rivers and Pittman were together when they were rookie – when Pittman was a rookie, excuse me. And then Gardner Minshew I don't think is the type of player to necessarily elevate what Michael Pittman can do. He helped him, but I don't think he elevates him. But I don't know. We are – maybe the best buzz case for London is 36-year-old quarterback

coming off a torn Achilles. But yes, we'll see. All right, Jamie, you are up CJ Stroud. You're calling bus proof. It's a,

it's a pretty good case. Dave, we struggled with the Dak Prescott argument. You know, the devil's advocate. Let's make a bus case for CJ Stroud. I will give you two stats that made me raise my eyebrows about Stroud last year. He had a 58.7% completion rate on third downs, 21st among qualifying quarterbacks, 62.3%

completion rate on third downs in weeks one through 12. That was before Tank Dell got hurt. That still seems better, but it was only 15th among qualifying quarterbacks. Those two numbers, look, I know that there's other numbers that can be associated with third down stats that can overcome that. But I wonder if CJ shot, if he doesn't get better in those crunch situations, does that impact his upside? Does that make him less of a quarterback that can get to 25 fantasy points per game versus the 21.5 that he had last year? And what's going to happen when Houston gets inside the five? It's not, it's not Devin Singletary and Damian Pierce. It's Joe Mixon.

And Mixon is actually a decent running back in that situation. They just paid him in Houston. The offensive line will be better. They might be more encouraged to be a little more run centric when they're inside the five versus trusting CJ Stroud. So there's an upside concern, even though he's got all these awesome wide receivers. And there's also a concern about just how many touchdowns

he'll have the opportunity to throw. Yeah, I think to call him bus proof is a little bit of a leap of faith because his rookie season and Baker Mayfield's rookie season actually kind of similar. Completion percentage was nearly identical. Dave, you talked about his third down completion percentage. Stroud's completion percentage, actually kind of similar. Completion percentage was nearly identical. Dave, you talked about his third down completion percentage. Stroud's completion percentage in general was just bad.

It was a 63.9%. But yeah, Mayfield was on pace for about a little bit, about 50 fewer yards. But Mayfield was on pace for 35 touchdown passes. Stroud, 26. Stroud threw barely any interceptions, though. By the way, that's just in their starts.

Just like 17 game pace based on their starts. Yeah, so I think there's just a little uncertainty because he's only had one year in the league. He's not a big rushing threat. There's only been

three quarterbacks over the last five years that have finished as a top five quarterback with fewer than 200 rushing yards. They all threw 41 or more touchdown passes. So it is hard to be top five with fewer than 200 rushing yards. That's threw 41 or more touchdown passes. So it is hard to be top five

with fewer than 200 rushing yards. That's what he was on pace for last year. So he's got to do something he's never done before. He's got to take that step, Jamie. I guess I wouldn't quite say Stroud is bus proof because it's just still a little unproven. He did what he did last year as a rookie behind a makeshift offensive line

with losing one of his best wide receivers toward the back end of the season. And now he gets that guy back, plus Stephon Diggs, plus an offensive line that should be better, plus a running back that should be more productive. One of the best schedules you'll find in the NFL. It sets up magically for him. So, I mean, I don't care if he's bus proof or not. He's awesome. Yeah, no, but the problem is, you know, I'm looking

at his ADP on NFC. He's going to get overdrafted. That's a bus case is that he's just going to go too high potentially. I mean, again, you can make the case with a lot of these guys that they're going to go too high. Yeah, you could. A lot of these guys, meaning the guys

If we're factoring ADP, then a lot of these guys, meaning the guys with Bob Trout are quarterbacks. If we're factoring ADP, then a lot of these players shouldn't be discussed as bus professionals. So what is too high for CJ Stroud? Is round four too high?

How about, let's just do QB blank, not round. I mean, to say QB four versus QB five, I don't know if that's such a huge stretch. I wouldn't take him as QB four,

but I haven't ranked QB five. It's probably four point per passing touchdown, though, because it's Allen, Hertz, Mahomes, Stroud, Jackson, Richardson. Yeah, I wouldn't draft him there, but again, it's one spot difference from where I have him. In four point, you'd have him at five? No, no, no, no, no, but yes, in four point, that's two.

Right, right. No, I wouldn't be throwing a fit if it were six point, but I think it's probably four point. But what's the penalty for interceptions, because that matters for him? That's another thing. Can we really expect him to have this good of an interception?, but I think it's probably four. But what's the penalty for interceptions? Cause that matters for him. Well, that's another thing. Like, can we really expect them to throw,

to have this good of an interception? I think that's his profile. I think it's almost like Aaron Rogers where he doesn't, not going to take a lot of chances, which is going to hurt a ceiling, but it's also going to help us for. Okay. What do you think the track record is for rookie first round quarterbacks

that had a good first season in their second season? What do you think they do in that second season? Baker Mayfield, bad. Justin Herbert, great. Joe Burrow, very good. Because I'm doing a study for our magazine on rookie quarterbacks because there's so many interesting ones coming into the league this year. Kyler Murray, great.

Ten first-round quarterbacks out of 32 in the last decade that were good as a rookie, 20 plus fantasy points per game and six point went on to their second year. Eight of the 10 had an even better, not necessarily better, but at least 20 and a half fantasy points per game. Five of them were at at least 23 points per game. There was a good track record of, if you show that you're good as a rookie, you can keep it up. And I think that helps CJ Stroud. My, my completion rate stats about Stroud, they're true, but I think Diggs was added to help those stats. I think he's going to be the money down target over the middle of

the field and middle of the field. I should have mentioned this too, was not kind to CJ Stroud last year. I think that Diggs is there to help in the middle of the field win on third downs. That's on top of what Tank Dell and Nico Collins can do. I agree. I think he's pretty bus proof. I think he's a good quarterback to get. Just don't reach for him on draft day. Keeping Bobby slow and keeping Dalton Schultz too. Isaiah Pacheco.

Isaiah Pacheco, Jamie says, is bus proof. Dave, what do you say? Give me the devil's advocate there. The devil's advocate is that he's a day three running back pick who the chiefs seem to reluctantly give a lot of workload to. It kind of came down to, well, who else is going to do it in the second half of the year and then in the playoffs? And then he did well with it, but he still lost third down work at times. Certainly when, when Jerick McKinnon was healthy, McKinnon started to take that passing downs rollback that was in the Superbowl mainly. Um, and, and this is an offense

that got a lot stronger at wide receiver. It's why Mahomes is the number one quarterback for me this year. While all the other great quarterbacks in the league saw something happen to them that could hurt their numbers. Mahomes added two fast wide receivers that could help his numbers. It can make the team more pass friendly, could take opportunities away from Isaiah Pacheco, who might be two fumbles away from losing his gig to somebody who might not even be on the team. I know the depth behind Isaiah Pacheco right now. It's laughable with Clyde Edwards-Hilaire and the rugby player that's there.

Dineric Prince is still there. But what's stopping the Chiefs from getting in the mix to add another running back during the preseason to kind of lighten the load for Pacheco and give them an insurance policy in case Isaiah Pacheco isn't as good as he's been the second half of last year? I'll say this about Pacheco. He became the feature back for the Chiefs midway through the 2022 season.

He then played 22 games going into the postseason and then next season. He then played 22 games going into the, going into the post season. And then next season, he scored 16 more. He scored more than 16.2 PPR fantasy points in one of 22 games in that stretch. And then he finished with a huge flurry.

So I think people are drafting him based on what happened in the last eight games of the season, including the playoffs last year where he was unbelievable. But what happened in the last eight games of the season, including the playoffs last year, where he was unbelievable. But what happened there? Jarek McKinnon barely played, and he got a lot more targets, and he got more catches, and he scored a ton of touchdowns.

If they find a third down back, I think it's really gonna hurt Pacheco. If Mahomes throws more touchdowns and Pacheco rushes for fewer touchdowns, I think he's a bust if he goes in round two. I can't really make a case for him as a bust if he's like got like an ADP around 30. But if he's around to pick,

I see, I could see him performing like last year he was RB 14 per game. That's not great. And I could see him scoring fewer touchdowns and having fewer catches. So, you know, I think he could be like RB 16 or something. And that's probably a bust in round two.

Go ahead, Jamie. I just think this offense gets better, and he gets more scoring opportunities. Whether he's going to get the opportunity to score them himself, that's certainly up for debate. But I think just by nature of this team challenging more downfield, opening up underneath for a lot of different options

because if they're not going to play Travis Kelsey as much, he still becomes a factor in the pass game. You said that he got a lot of his production when Jarrett McKinnon wasn't available. Well, Jarrett McKinnon is not on the team. I know. I said they have to add a third down.

Yeah. I mean, but to add a third down back at this point, like Dave said, they they've shown that they've gone out and, you know, been aggressive and getting some retread veterans in the past that haven't exactly worked out for them late in the year.

I just feel like this guy is locked in as the running back for Andy Reed on one of, if not the best offenses in football. I'm going to take my chances with that more times than not. So I will take him in round two. I love the setup for him because of the lack of competition. And I do think that he still hopefully will remain healthy. Now, look, he battled some injuries last year, the shoulder problem they had played through.

That's, that's part of it. I know Dave didn't pick any running backs. I'm sure for that reason, not wanting to take any of the the biggest injury risk players which makes total sense because they're all busts at this position but i was trying to just give some non-bust proof running backs i think or at least one that matters here and i think he's kind of non-bust proof of the non-top five six guys because of where he's being drafted based on the production and potential that he has

okay this next one this is an lol this is an L L O L. This is an LL for me. Might've been trolling you a little bit. Derek, Derek Henry, Derek Henry, JB says his bus, but he's too old. Dave,

go ahead. What's your bus case for Henry? Honestly, if I'm making a bus case for Derek Henry, you start with it being that he is old. He's 30 and he had a down year last year. We know why he had a down year last year there. That's been explained away. It's been explained by me is why it's actually a good thing that he's on a different team, but it's, it's really hard to go beyond

that to make a bus proof case for, for Derek Henry. Um, we could say that Lamar Jackson's going to take away lots of rushing opportunities for him. We could say that once Keaton Mitchell's healthy, he'll take some work away. What if, uh, their rookie Ali ends up getting healthy and he takes work away from Derek Henry. But I feel like these are all kind of crummy arguments for why Derek Henry is, is not bus proof. comes down to is he's a running back and all running backs. It's much easier to see a bus case for compared to other players. And then when you tack on just how much work he's had over the course of his career, and even as recently as last year, just makes it difficult to trust somebody like that and say, okay, everything's going to be fine. He'll have a safe floor. Now, if you put the asterisk next to it and say, he's going to have a safe floor when healthy. And when he's on the field, I mean, I get that, but I think we're kind of saying that for everybody anyway. I don't have a really good bus case for Derek Henry other than he's old argument. It's a great argument, though, because not every running back is 30 years old with 2030 career carries on a team that is going to be starting three new offensive linemen, by the way.

And I think that there are obvious signs of decline in him. He's not, his explosive play rate has been lower. His yards after contact has been lower. He doesn't look like the same running back. So we've got a 30-year-old who looks, I mean, I could see him having a bounce back, but he's showing signs of decline. And when you talk about a running back with bust potential,

the first thing you look at is his role in the passing game. A guy who's going to catch 40, 50 passes, that guy has a safer floor. Derrick Henry is probably going to catch 25 passes or something like that. There's usually two running backs a year that finish in the top 12 with fewer than 30 catches in full PPR.

Henry's typically one of them. But last year, he was RB18 per game. He's RB12 or RB10 overall, RB18 per game. So it's just, he doesn't catch passes. He's super old. And that's the best case for Derek Henry. For a running back, he's super old. I mean, it definitely makes sense.

Yeah. But, but. I mean, this was your argument when the offseason started, Jamie, for Henry. This year, maybe other years before. You love the situation and he's going to score a lot, basically. I mean, it's hard to overlook. We don't have to get that far.

We've talked enough about it. Let's go to Mark Andrews. Mark Andrews last year was the number one tight end per game in non number three and half and number five per game in full PPR. And that was one game where he played 11 percent of the snaps. So, Dave, Jamie says Mark Andrews is bus proof. Give me the bus case for him. Well, let's start with Derek Henry going to Baltimore. I think he's going to change how well I don't know if it's necessarily change how the Ravens want to run their offense,

but I certainly don't think Henry going to Baltimore is an indicator that they want to throw more. So this is still going to be a team that's run first. Obviously the quarterback will continue to run, but who's going to be the number one target getter. Is it going to be Andrews? Is it going to be Zay Flowers? Could it be close between those two coaches continueaches continue to talk up Rashad Bateman.

Could he take work away? Could it be more spread in that offense that takes that volume away that we've come to know and love from Mark Andrews? And then once they get inside the five, I think it's going to be Derrick Henry as option number one, two, and three to score touchdowns. Maybe once in a while a play action throw to Mark Andrews that could help him out. I know that he's been good for, uh, let's see, at least 11.6 PPR points per game each of the last five years, but he's been under 13 and a half or less each of the last two injuries have played a role. He is 29 years old. Maybe this isn't the guy who once was taken as the number two tight end. I know we're not taking him as the number two tight end,

but maybe he finishes as like tight end four or five this year between injuries, lower target volume in Baltimore, fewer touchdown opportunities. That's not much of a bus case, Dave. You got to excel me a little bit more than that. I'll try because tight end four or five. I mean, that wouldn't be so bad for Andrews, but he's had one year in his career where he has averaged more than 60 yards per game. Even if you remove partial games where he gets injured.

He's had one year in his career where he's averaged more than 60 yards per game. 60 yards per game times 17 is 1,020 yards. So one year where he's been at a 1,000-yard pace or more than that in 17 games. You make it sound like getting a thousand yards is bad. It's difficult. I know. It's hard to make a bus case for these guys. It's a thousand yards for, no, okay.

There was one guy that did it last year. Yeah. I don't know if he's getting a thousand yards. But I'm talking about 17 game pace. I'm not talking about, like guys miss time all the time. But we're also talking about Mark Andrews had his lowest target per outrun rate since his rookie season.

In six of nine healthy games, he had four to six targets. This is a legitimate concern for me because Zay Flowers didn't do much when Andrews was healthy. If Zay Flowers becomes the legitimate one guy, the 1A guy in that offense, they keep talking about Rashad Bateman.

Even if Rashad Bateman is just like a decent number three wide receiver for them, I think we do have a target problem here for Mark Andrews. And you throw in Derrick Henry at the goal line. I do see some bust potential here for Mark Andrews because the targets were actually pretty low for him. I think it's reasonable to look at him and say he may not get 100 targets in 17 games. He just feels safe to me.

That's nice. Because he's just consistently done it. Yeah. He just feels safe to me. That's nice. Because he's just consistently done it. Yeah. He has. Yeah. But it comes to an end for everybody. You know, like Kittle,

I really think Kittle would have been a, a, a huge bust last year. If Debo hadn't gotten hurt. Um, I don't, that wouldn't have been the case, obviously for Andrews.

Andrew's having a great year, but flowers didn't do anything until Andrews got hurt. I'm saying that maybe this year flowers becomes like real target competition for Andrews. And if, if flowers becomes the best player in this offense, you know, then he definitely can,

you know, I mean, you're, you're hearing a lot about just the rapport between those two guys. And look, it's the second year in Todd Monken's offense. So they know it's last year was install and learning it, You know, I mean, you're hearing a lot about just the rapport between those two guys. And look, it's the second year in Todd Monken's offense. So, you know, it's last year was install and learning it, you know, or, you know, trying to perfect it as they go. Now it should be to the point where they're perfecting it, you know, with another offseason and second year in the system. And so, you know, Andrew's missing the latter half of the season and, you know and the beginning of the playoffs, that may have been because Lamar Jackson was finally clicking at that time, which is why Zay Flowers took off at that time. Now, clearly, I think Zay Flowers took off because Andrew's not being there.

That definitely helped. I don't necessarily want to buy into Rashad Bateman all of a sudden becoming a thing. He's getting a lot of hype, understandably so. Beckham's gone, and he's going to be a starter or more of a full-time starter and first-round talent and Harbaugh talking him up. It all makes sense.

But if you're talking about his production coming at the expense of Andrews and by extension Zay Flowers, I don't buy it. So I think Andrews is still locked into his role. I think he's still going to be, if not the alpha in the passing game, certainly the 1B behind Zay Flowers. If Flowers does take that next step and ascends beyond him. The run game, it's like we're sitting here and expecting Derrick Henry to be an absolute monster.

He can be. Gus Edwards still scored 13 touchdowns last year. So three, four, five more, I think that's realistic for Henry if he stays healthy. But I think that also comes with the extension of it just being a better offense in general because the running game should be better because Henry's better than Gus Edwards.

I'm not going to play devil's advocate here. Targets per game for Mark Andrews was at a five-year low last year, 6.1. Can you still be a quality fantasy? Is that taking out the game he got hurt to? No, that's every game he played. If we want to take out the game he got hurt, I can answer that. Take out the game he got hurt. What's 6.5.

Let's just say that's a hundred 6.5 times. 17 is 111 targets. But the case I was making was that if Zay flowers emerges, forget about Bateman. If Zay flowers emerged, I think you could be looking at about a hundred targets. And you are talking about a team that is consistently one of the lowest past volume teams in the NFL.

I doubt that's changing. So, you know who would, you know, you know, I was just thinking, I think Heath would have bought a lot of my arguments today. Because they were, many of them were like projection based almost. When was the last time Heath bought anything that you said?

I think he would have today. I think we should do this show again with Heath. We should throw this one out. We should just dump it. Schaefer, delete the video. Let's get Heath on. Oh, by the way, we have to go because Heath has to do FFT Dynasty. You should do this one out. We should just dump it. Schaefer, delete the video. Let's get Heath on. Oh, by the way, we have to go because Heath has to do FFT Dynasty.

You should do it on Saturday. Jeez, man. We went way too long. Sorry about that, FFT Dynasty. All right, we'll talk to you all tomorrow. No, we'll talk to you all on Thursday. Enjoy your day off. Happy birthday, Adam.

Happy birthday. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. And we will, yeah. Like I. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Yeah. Like I said, we'll talk to you tomorrow. I'll be able to do the outros when I'm bored.