Fantasy Football Today - 10 Players We're Worried About Being Wrong About (07/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: July 3, 2023Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Sometimes we're concerned that ...we're much too high or much too low on certain players. Today we discuss the players we're worried about being wrong about beginning with Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2:15) and Christian Kirk (8:15). Are we missing potential upside for JSN? Are we overlooking the downside of Kirk? Then we've got one news item to cover (16:00) ... Heath's list of players he's worried about being wrong about includes Geno Smith (19:40), D'Andre Swift (24:40), Cam Akers (30:10) and Darren Waller (31:40). Heath is worried he's too low on all of these guys. Find out why! ... Dave's list is Chris Godwin (35:55), Juju Smith-Schuster (42:40), David Montgomery (46:00) and James Cook (49:50). Is he too high on them? Too low? ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Well, you know, we get a lot of questions from audience members.
Some of them want to break into the industry, do their own fantasy rankings, things like that.
Dave and Heath, do you think it's a good idea to tell them, hey, don't ever worry about being wrong?
That's good advice or bad advice or medium advice?
I would say don't spend a lot of time worrying about being wrong.
Spend a lot of time worrying about your process
and how you come to your conclusions before the games each week
and then learn from the games each week.
You've got to have a short memory.
It's like an NFL cornerback.
Yeah, exactly.
Every mistake just goes away as soon as the 4 million Twitter notifications
complaining about it does.
I will never get over Monty Ball.
Yeah, you know, but today we are going to worry about being wrong because today we're talking
about the 10 players that we're worried about being wrong about. So you can do that. I mean,
you could definitely second guess yourself a lot in this industry, in this biz.
So I was intentional about something, and I'm wondering
if Dave was as well. I don't know if you noticed this, but all of the guys that I said I was
worried about being wrong about, I'm worried I'm too low on. There was no one on the list that I
was worried I was too high on. Dave? No, there's some where I'm almost like in the middle
where I wonder if I'm not low enough.
Okay.
All right, we will...
All right, so Heath has a theme.
Dave is themeless, except the theme is
players were worried about being wrong about.
So let's get right to that.
Give me one of each.
How about, Heath, you can start.
The player...
One player that you're worried about being
wrong about but this is by far by the way of all the shows we do this is the wordiest so in terms
of the titles oh i don't i don't know if that's true at all the title um like you you've put
together some some real tongue twisters in the past and but i'll say uh jackson smith and jacob
oh wow okay that was the one on your list i was like really that's injured because yeah okay go
ahead go ahead jack i mean he's connected to another guy on my list you know smith we can
talk about gino smith a little bit later but i just think like we've seen the last couple of years when a truly elite wide receiver comes into the NFL, they quite often produce like a truly elite wide receiver in that first year.
And it may not happen in week one, but we see it by week six or by week eight, or we see it sporadically throughout the season.
You know how big of a fan I am of Tyler Lockett.
And I've been going on five years now of saying that DK Metcalf's not the number one. It's Tyler Lockett
1A and 1B. And obviously DK's a great talent and Seattle's not been a team that throws the ball
700 times. So as someone who does projections, it's hard to rank JSN as someone that you would want to draft even as a top 35
wide receiver. But I think long-term, if he hits his ceiling, he's better than Tyler Lockett or
DK Metcalf have ever been. And Lockett's over 30 and DK is not proven to be like Justin Jefferson
like target earner,
it's possible JSN, the second half of this season,
is the number one wide receiver on Seattle.
Okay.
And you are basically calling him an elite wide receiver prospect?
Yeah, that's where I was going to go to.
You're saying he might be.
I think the only reason that I would add the basically is because it was just one year.
But what he did in that one year in terms of yards per route run was better than anything Justin Jefferson or Jomar Chase did.
In terms of overall elite production on a team with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and outproducing both of them? Yes. I think
if it wasn't for the fact that it was just one year, there would be no basically about it. It
would just be he is. But there's that tiny bit of sample size concern. Okay. Dave, you want to
respond to that or you want to go to your guy? I'll respond first. I love Jackson Smith and
Jigba as a player. Calling him elite, I feel like
is a little bit of a stretch. He was drafted 20th overall. A lot of the receivers that we call elite
in the NFL are drafted toward the top of the draft. Sometimes players come out of nowhere
and they end up being great and they become elite, but there's a much slower path to that.
Drake London, top 10 pick last year, did not put up elite numbers for fantasy football,
just as an example of a rookie wide receiver
who a lot of people loved,
and he just didn't come through in fantasy.
The situation that JSN is in is worse than what Drake London is in.
Oh, I disagree with that.
Not quarterback-wise, but just as far as sharing targets.
His first year, it's a team that's loved to run the football
a lot of the time.
I'm I am the absolute lowest on JSN among the three of us.
And it's not even close.
Heath, you've got him as like a round eight pick.
I think Jamie's got him in round nine.
I'm like round 10, 11 border.
And that's full PPR.
Even if he is a second half of the season breakout player, that means someone's drafting him in every single home league,
and they're going to sit through that, or are they going to cut him?
And I wonder if there's a chance to buy low on him for that second half push
if he looks even remotely good in the first half.
Point being, if he was this dominant receiver,
and he was really good in high school in Dallas, by the way,
if he had that great one year and the whole NFL bought into him he wouldn't have gone 20th overall he wouldn't have
gone to the Seahawks no I think if he would have had more than one year that wouldn't have been
the case I think the fact that it was one year and it wasn't last year is probably why yeah
I mean yeah look Justin Jefferson went in the 20s right cd lamb went in the late teens so you can be i don't
yeah i mean i'd say lamb is close to an elite receiver you can go in that range and still be
an elite receiver well like the guys who have been the best receivers in the nfl the last five to ten
years where were they drafted i mean it's pretty much all over the place yeah right you know it's
not like like tyree Kill was obviously a character
concerned guy and fell.
Devontae Adams, day two.
Diggs?
Diggs was round four.
Yeah, round five. Something like that.
Day three.
Cooper Cup was round three.
I don't know that I agree
that the fact that he wasn't a top
10 or 15 pick
has a lot of bearing on whether he's going to be an elite wide receiver.
Right, but we can't call him an elite wide receiver
the same way that we've called other wide receivers that have entered the league.
Yeah, I guess the last thing, maybe, Heath,
is that if you look at the elite wide receivers who have been great as rookies,
great, great as rookies, maybe most of them are picked earlier than that.
Jefferson was not.
But, you know, look, I don't know that it really matters.
I see what you're saying.
It's just hard for me to think of a guy who had a huge rookie season
with two receivers like that.
Well, I think, yeah, and I think that's the point.
And, like, DK has not quite been what we viewed him as, right?
Yeah.
No, one year.
No.
And Lockett's over 30.
And I just wonder how much we should be considering.
They threw it more last year than they did with Russ.
Then they went out and got a JSN.
Maybe all those years of running it too much with Russ,
we shouldn't be holding against them as much as we are.
All right, Dave Richard,
who is one player that you're worried about being wrong about?
I'll pick another wide receiver.
I'm worried about being wrong about Christian Kirk of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And again, comparing him to Heath and Jamie,
Heath's taking Christian Kirk according to his PPR rankings in round three.
Jamie's looking at round five.
I'm closer to round seven.
I'm in early round seven on Christian Kirk.
I've been pretty outspoken about Calvin Ridley.
I'm buying into what the reports are out of minicamp that he's looking great
and that the coaches have to reel him in because they're still just ramping him up.
They know the season's a couple months away.
I think Ridley's going to be the number one in Jacksonville.
And I think Christian Kirk can get sort of close in terms of targets.
I think he could have a year like his last year in Arizona,
had 103 targets in 17 games,
basically had 200 PPR points over the course of the season, averaged right around 12 per game. I don't see him as being
a 1B to Calvin Ridley's 1A, or I don't see Christian Kirk being a 1A to Calvin Ridley's 1B.
I think he's good. I think Calvin Ridley will prove to be the better receiver or Jacksonville
will spread it all around.
They'll keep using Zay Jones.
They'll keep using Evan.
They're going to use Evan Ingram anyway.
I think we're all hoping that Travis Etienne gets a target share and it
flattens everybody.
And so I'm almost worried and I'm the low guy on Christian Kirk.
I'm worried that round seven might be even just a shade too high.
I think it's definitely too high in non-PPR.
I can't take him that high in non-PPR.
But in full PPR, I wonder if I'm still overvaluing him just a little bit.
That wide receiver of 34, man.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I mean, Calvin Ridley could still be great.
I mean, Calvin Ridley could be a top five wide receiver,
and Christian Kirk could finish as wide receiver 34.
You know what's so funny about Kirk is I almost feel like
people's evaluations of Kirk. I feel like Kirk is the least important factor in that. It's like,
are you buying a Trevor Lawrence breakout? Are you buying Calvin Ridley? How, how good do you
think Calvin Ridley is going to be? How much of a role do you think Zay Jones is going to be?
That's just my take. It's like take. I don't think anybody thinks that Christian
Kirk maybe can reach another
level as a player.
I think he was wide receiver
12 or 13 last year, closer to 20
per game.
It's almost like people are kind of guessing what
the other pieces around Kirk
are going to be, how good
they're going to be. Heath, that's sort of how I see it.
Do you see it the same way?
Just to finalize the point,
you're not as high on Calvin Ridley
and you're super high on Christian Kirk
compared to Dave and Jamie.
Right, and I just think there's 202 targets
that went to Zay Jones and Marvin Jones last year.
And those guys were terribly inefficient
with those targets and so I I think
if they I don't know that Calvin Ridley couldn't come in and get 130 targets and not really impact
Christian Kirk um I do think it's really unlikely that Ridley comes in and sees a significant number
of targets more than Kirk considering that we saw Kirk earn 133 targets and
be the best wide receiver on the team last year, that Ridley hasn't played football for two years
and has none of that connection with Trevor Lawrence, and that Doug Peterson hasn't really
had an alpha number one target earner. He's really good at designing offenses that the defense doesn't
necessarily know where you're going with the ball and I think where he got in trouble in Philadelphia
is where he got away with that and got a little bit too predictable but I don't I don't think
we're going to see one guy get 30 of the targets or 27 of the targets in Jacksonville I think it's
probably going to be Kirk and Ridley chopping up the wide receiver targets like Kirk and Zay Jones did last year. And then Ingram having his tight end chair that's
always been present in the Peterson offense. Right. Like, I don't even know if it's worth it
to go back and look and see what Alshon Jeffrey's target share was in Philadelphia when Peterson was
there. How, do you think that there's a way that Ridley could have 40 more targets? Four-zero more than Christian Kirk?
Or do you think it's just going to be real close between those two?
I have them both projected for exactly 134.
Exactly 134.
So one more target than Kirk had last year.
Yeah, and 40 targets over 17 games is less than two and a half per game.
So if Ridley had two more targets per game, than two and a half per game so really had
two more targets per game that's 34 more targets per game to think of it that way
um but dave do you agree with that assessment that the evaluation of christian kirk is almost like
yeah and i'll tell you and i'll tell you also because we did be on the box score i think and
and it was said you know i think dan and jared said i don't know why Christian Kirk's going so much higher than Zay Jones.
Because they think Zay Jones will have more of an impact than I think it sounds like we think he will.
I will say, if they're right about Zay Jones, then Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk are both going to bust.
Agreed. Agreed. And so it's almost like the project we should have over the next month
is to figure out, is Doug Peterson going to commit to spreading the ball around
so that he is more unpredictable?
And if that's the case, then we're all wrong on Kirk and Calvin Ridley.
And we should start drafting Zay Jones with one of our last few picks.
Well, look, I just.
Oh, I'm sorry.
Go ahead.
No, I just think, like,
specifically for Zay Jones,
like, it was the first time
in his career
he got anywhere close
to that many targets,
and he turned 121 targets
into 823 yards,
which was a career high
at year six.
I just think if you have
Calvin Ridley
and Christian Kirk
and Evan Ingram healthy,
Zay Jones is not going to matter.
Is 6.8 yards per target good, Heath? If you're Kelvin Ridley and Christian Kirk and Evan Ingram healthy, Zay Jones is not going to matter. Is 6.8 yards per target good, Heath?
If you're a running back.
That was Zay Jones.
And just so it's out there, last year Ingram had 98 targets.
Zay Jones had 121 in 16 games.
Kirk had 133.
So three guys with 98 targets in that offense, regardless of position.
I just want to make one more point,
then I'm going to go through the ADPs real quick.
Kirk played 67% of the snaps in the slot.
So I do like that for Kirk.
He is their slot guy.
I think so, too.
That's a very high percentage, by the way.
Calvin Ridley, NFC ADP since June 1st, 91 drafts.
Calvin Ridley is wide receiver 21.
He's going 44th.
Christian Kirk, not far behind, wide receiver 25.
So only four wide receivers later and only basically 10 picks later,
53rd overall.
And then Zay Jones is wide receiver 56, and he's going 130th overall.
But it's a pretty small gap between Kirk and between Ridley
at wide receiver 21 and Kirk at wide
receiver 25.
Let's hit the news and notes here.
There's not a lot of it. Before we do that, I just want to tell you
we have a ton of other podcasts.
Heath's Dynasty podcast
will maybe soon be
having its own feed. I think I might
I don't know if I'm speaking too soon,
but it won't go away,
but it might go away from this feed,
but it exists.
And you're going to hear a prerecorded episode.
It exists very much so.
You'll hear a prerecorded episode tomorrow on July 4th.
Happy 4th of July to everybody out there.
We have soccer podcasts.
We have combat sports podcasts.
We have college football podcasts. We have combat sports podcasts. We have college football
podcasts. We've got fantasy baseball. Go to cbssports.com slash podcasts and check it all out.
They exist. I only have one news item here, and it's from a write-up about the Panthers
in The Athletic from Joseph Person. He believes that running back Raheem Blackshear could be an outlet in the
passing game for Bryce young.
And he mentioned Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall as risers from camp
standouts from camp.
Go ahead.
Did,
uh,
did you guys see pictures of Bryce young lately?
No,
it's like,
it looks like he's getting his middle school graduation compared to
everyone else.
No,
stop.
Apparently he's put on a little more muscle and they're trying to get him bulked up a little bit more.
I couldn't really tell based on the pictures that I saw.
So maybe someone who has seen a lot of pictures of Bryce Young
can tell me that he's thicker now than he was when he got drafted.
Adam, you don't get to make Bryce Young his small jokes.
I'm sorry.
I don't know if you understand how this works,
but you don't get to make those jokes. Well, if I stood around 6'5 offensive lineman all day, I would expect those jokes. I'm sorry. I don't know if you understand how this works, but you don't get to make those jokes. Well, if I
stood around 6'5 offensive
lineman all day, I would expect those jokes.
If you stood around
5'11 podcast analysts all
day, you would get those jokes. Okay, excuse
me. How tall is Bryce Young?
What are his measurements here?
I believe he's 5'10". Okay,
he's barely taller than me.
Because if you round up, I'm 5'9".
And how many pounds does he have on you?
Let's see.
Let's see what he measured at the combine.
You know, I have been gaining some weight.
I'm trying to lose it, actually.
Maybe you should join a gym.
So he was listed at 5'10", 204 pounds.
It's very different than me.
So he's got about 55 pounds on you?
I'm trying to get that down to closer to 60 pounds on me.
That's what I'm hoping.
Right now it's about 55 pounds, yeah.
Okay, so that's our news item.
But does it matter?
Raheem Blackshear could be an outlet in the passing game at running back.
And then Mingo and Marshall both had good camps.
Dave, anything matter?
I just took Blackshear in round eight of a basketball dynasty rookie slash veteran draft.
Oh, is that the league we've been in for two years and I've won both of the years?
You have.
You are the two-time reigning defending champion of that league i'm
trying to catch you in that one and oh that league actually gonna help me well wow i can't believe
it was either it was like black sheer or lou nichols or who else was that tegan quitterano
uh if i pronounce that right i, there's just nobody left.
So I saw Blackshear out there, and I said, let's go for it.
Okay.
All right.
We're going to take a break on that note.
And when we come back, players we're worried about being wrong about after this.
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Well, let's start with Geno Smith.
Let's continue our JSN discussion here.
The second half of the year, he threw like 36 times per game or something like that.
I can look that up, but they got very pass-heavy late in the year.
And, all right, what are you worried about?
Where do you have him ranked?
Talk about Geno.
I think it's two sides because, on one,
I'm expecting a little bit of regression from Geno last year.
I mean, I was making the joke about what Zay Jones had done in his career
before last year.
The difference, obviously, is that Geno was actually good.
But, like, as a rule, I bet against the age 32 breakout, repeating that at age 33.
But he was legitimately one of the best passers in the NFL last year.
And he has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and JSN at wide receiver.
And so I'm concerned, like, what if he's actually a little bit better
as a passer than he was last year and they throw 36 times a game all year long and he's just a top
six fantasy quarterback again the flip side of that is there's a lot of guys who did not perform
like they did the year before or two years ago that I'm expecting to bounce back.
Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson,
a lot of guys that Geno Smith was better than last year
that I just think, yeah, but that's close to Geno's ceiling.
Those other guys have a lot higher ceiling,
so I'm going to draft the other guys first.
It's possible he's just better than all those guys.
Trevor Lawrence.
It's possible he's just still better than Trevor Lawrence.
He has better weapons.
Do you think he can be better than he was last year?
He finished eighth per game.
Yes, I think he could.
Okay.
Dave, do you think Geno Smith can be better
than eighth per game?
First of all, you can worry about being wrong on Geno
and say, you know what?
I'm going to move him up a little bit and still take him in round nine and not lose much sleep over it.
Are you reaching on Gino Smith as the 11th or 12th quarterback off the board in your league?
This would be like round three for those of you in Superflex or 2QB.
Maybe in those formats, you might lose a little sleep about reaching for Gino, but in a one QB league,
you're not going to worry about it either way.
So if you believe that there's a chance that Gino could be better,
just go take them in round nine before anybody else.
Do you,
do you think he can be better than he was last?
I think he can be worse.
I'm nervous about him playing this well.
Again,
the addition of JSN is made to make life a little bit easier for him.
Now there's another outlet for
underneath throws. Teams that try
and take the deep ball away,
they're going to have to worry about Smith and Jigba now.
What about the teams that recognize that
Smith and Jigba needs to be
covered closely?
I still feel like
Geno is going to have problems against teams
that bring a good pass rush against them.
They see a decent amount of those.
I believe that he does not have a good POS PSOS grade.
I can look it up for you if you'd like.
Here's,
here's what's in Gino's favor over the last five years.
You know,
the highest passing rate,
the Seahawks have had last year,
last year.
Nope.
2020 59.8% of the time they threw.
So about 60% of the time, we mean, I'm'm sorry i thought you meant like a nfl qb rating no no no i'm pass rate not qb rating
um so that's pretty good last year they were at 59.3 so half of a percentage point lower than
their five-year high and if they they just added sm and Jigma, so you'd think that they're going to throw more.
They might become one of those teams that throws the ball 61,
62% of the time.
He's got a middle-of-the-pack PSOS, 17th.
Good early start to the season.
I wonder if there's a way that Geno actually gets you off to a good start
and then defenses really figure out what Seattle's doing by like October.
And then there's like a big stretch where Seattle's passing game just struggles.
I don't like, and this is wrong.
I think Seattle might win the NFC West.
Oh no, they could.
And I don't know unless Lockett falls off or JSN's one year was a fluke
or Metcalf gets hurt.
I don't know how you figure it.
You can't guard all three of those guys.
Plus, they have the running game.
And they want to throw more out of the backfield.
That's going to help their pass rate.
I talked about the Dolphins' offense perhaps getting solved a little bit
late last year, but they didn't really have a running game
that they could rely on.
If you can solve the Seahawks offense,
that's a failure on the offensive coaching staff
because they are loaded.
And their offensive line looks like it's probably going to be pretty good,
at least right now as we speak right now.
I think their right tackle is coming off a major surgery, though,
if I recall.
I don't remember.
All right, let's move on.
DeAndre Swift is someone thatath is worried about being wrong about he was actually number 17 per game in ppr last year he was number 23 per game in non-ppr but
he only had three games all year with more than eight carries and you know we remember the story
with deandre swift but you're what are you worried about being wrong about with Deandre Swift? I don't mean he's a second round draft pick who has shown flashes of being elite as a playmaker
going to play behind probably the best offensive line in football. Um, what if he just gets all
the touches that Miles Sanders did last year only is better and stays healthy. Um like i i think it's unlikely but i don't like to hold injuries against
guys certain guys have enough to where i get to the point to where i do but if if he just stays
healthy and lives up to his potential in this situation i mean he could average six yards per
carry this year he's rb 24 right now since j 1st on NFC. This is DeAndre Swift.
He's going after Alexander
Madison, although I don't know.
I don't remember whether Dalvin Cook...
Considerably higher than the
consensus on Madison.
Cam Akers, Damian Pierce. No,
I would say don't pay attention to the Madison one
because Dalvin Cook was released after
June 1st, so I'd have to change the date range.
Cam Akers, Damian Pierce, DeAndre Swift, Rashad White, James Conner.
That's the range we're talking about here, round six for DeAndre.
I'm pretty much drafting all those guys ahead of Swift.
Same.
Where do you think he would go if Rashad Penny were not on the team?
I don't know how much that matters.
Oh, that matters oh that matters that definitely matters we're talking about a player that's definitely as long as they're all healthy i don't know if
there's a world where swift is dominating playing time over penny i don't think anybody expects how
many like how many games do people really expect penny to play? You're thinking maybe you get a good one.
Like three.
Like three games they'll be together for.
Two in September, then one random game around November 1st.
Okay.
But that's why Swift's value is so low.
That's why we've got him ranked so low.
We're scared of taking him with one of our first seven picks,
and then by week four, he's either hurt
and is going to average 0.0 yards per carry.
Or by week four, the Eagles say,
oh, you know, he's underwhelming
and he's only getting 4.1 yards per carry.
And we've got other guys that we're going to mix and match with.
Plus, they've got that one other player.
Who's that guy in Philadelphia that gets a lot of touchdowns right at the goal line?
Who's that?
I know, but you're talking about an extremely explosive player
on a team that creates a lot of explosive plays.
I think it's a terrific fit.
I'd be happy to take DeAndre Swift in the sixth round.
I hope he stays that late because I acknowledge that he's injury-prone,
but I think Rashad Penny's the most injury-prone player I've ever seen, basically.
Besides Will Fuller.
Yeah.
It's unbelievable with Penny.
So you might have to wait a little while for Swift
to really take off.
But I just think that he doesn't need a lot of touches
in this offense to be at least a number two running back,
which is what he was last year.
Right.
All right.
I shouldn't have the final word. I'm sorry.
Does everybody sort of agree with that, that he can be a number two
running back without a lot of touches?
I did a projection on him
where if he averages 4.7
targets per game, 6.8 carries
per game, line that up against
his career averages over 13 games,
he can get you north of 12
PPR points per.
That's great.
It's a lot of targets.
You know, I don't think that's so bad
for a round six or seven pick.
It's a matter of that projection being right
and him being available.
Yeah, I think it has two other running backs
and one other quarterback
that are going to run the football.
Yeah, no, Heath is saying that
he's not going to get that many
targets.
Seems unlikely.
He averaged five targets per game in Detroit
last year. Right, but this team threw the fewest
passes to the running backs in the NFL last
year.
Either they acquire him
to try and get that part of their offense
going, or they
acquired a guy that they're not going to use his best strength for,
which is a dumb thing to do.
No, I think there's a place in the middle of that
and five targets per game, though, I guess.
Heath, where would you put the targets?
The dumbest thing to do would be to take targets away
from A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, or Dallas Goddard
and give them to a running back, any running back.
Sure.
Goddard?
I would rather throw it to Swift than Goddard.
I mean, if you're throwing it behind the line of scrimmage,
I would agree.
If you're throwing it 10 yards downfield,
I think I'd rather throw it to Goddard.
Swift, like how he was as a pass catcher,
he's another one of those guys like Ramondre Stevenson,
not to the extremes.
I think Swift looks very good on a yards per
route run basis and very mediocre on a yards per target basis, which to me is more of a reflection
of the fact that Jared Goff and Ben Johnson had designed passes to Swift when he was on the field
and he didn't run a lot of routes where he didn't earn targets but when he actually was
targeted it's not like he approved he was more efficient relative to league average on a yards
per rush basis than he was on a yards per target basis all right let's move on here let's go to
cam acres is another player that heath is worried about being wrong about what do you got yeah i've
got him as a low end number two running back and I think like
the way he finished last year and the way that Sean McVay is talking about Cam Akers being a
focal point of the Rams offense if and this is a big if if Matthew Stafford plays 17 games and
this offense is just average instead of garbage then I think Cam Akers could be a top 12 running
back like if they're going to give him 20 to 25 touches per game and they could just be a league average offense, then he could be a league
winner at where he's being drafted. He could be the Josh Jacobs of 2023. Okay. Cam Akers, Dave,
30 seconds. I'm worried that we're all too high on him. I've got him 59th.
Jamie has him 60th.
Heath has him 62nd.
So we're all in that late round five, early round six range.
That offensive line is a problem.
This is a team.
The defense is going to be a problem for the Rams.
I don't think it's going to be as good as it's been.
And so I'm a little bit worried about just how much work
Cam Akers will get from week to week.
But I am optimistic about the talent, which was a problem for me a year ago. I wasn't sure what we were going to get with Cam Akers will get from week to week. But I am optimistic about the talent,
which was a problem for me a year ago.
I wasn't sure what we were going to get with Cam Akers.
The reports out of training camp were great.
He finished last year strong.
Let's see what the training camp reports are like this year
before we make a decision about moving him down.
Certainly not.
I'm thinking more about moving him up than down for sure.
Okay.
Okay.
Yeah.
So kind of different
views there on Akers. Dave more
worried about him being a
bust, and Heath more worried about
him being a breakout and not being high
enough on Cam Akers.
And the last guy on your list is Darren
Waller, last guy you'll be talking about today,
Heath, or at least presenting. Darren
Waller,
yeah, he was tight end seven if you
remove week five when you play like four snaps Acer stat they're tight end seven per game um
you know but anyway Darren Waller yeah I've got him ranked like tight end 10 or 11 I think maybe
nine nine through 11 somewhere and and I've kind of bumped it up a couple of times to get to
that level um i'm i guess i'm worried both directions but i'm more worried about being
wrong in that he actually makes an impact for daniel jones and so daniel jones maybe throws
more than 20 touchdown passes um because i do think that waller if he stays healthy and
hasn't lost a step could still be one of the elite options.
I have a hard time projecting or ranking him there because the passing production in Daniel Jones' offense just hasn't been something that's going to produce an elite weapon at any position.
But we've seen, for other quarterbacks, adding a really good weapon can make a big increase in the
quarterback's efficiency if waller impacts jones instead of jones impacting waller then i'm going
to miss out on a great year from waller okay yeah so i mean i think like for most of the guys
that we're talking about you know they have to have either pretty big upside or pretty big downside, right?
Or otherwise, why would we be worried?
So you obviously see potential for him to have some pretty big upside.
I guess what you were just saying, he could have a big year.
But also he's a tight end and we know tight ends generally need touchdowns to have a top five season or a great season.
There's not a lot of low touchdown guys.
And he's playing on a team that, I mean, what,
threw 17 touchdown passes last year
and has a quarterback that's only thrown more than 20 once.
Yeah, I don't know.
I mean, do you feel that way about the touchdowns?
Because I feel like to be a top five tight end,
you could easily have five touchdowns
well five touchdowns might be 33 of the team's touchdowns that's fine but it's not a lot i mean it's still it's not a lot just i feel like he's gonna if he's gonna be a top five
tight end i think it's gonna be catches that propel him there for waller
and yet that's still,
when you're talking about a quarterback
who has one season with more than 300 completions,
if he's going to have a bunch of catches,
he's going to have to have 25% to 30% of the team's completions.
Yeah.
All right, well, that is Darren Waller.
And when we come back, we'll hear Dave's players.
Heath gave us Geno Smith, Jackson Smith, and Jigba.
DeAndre Swift,
Cam Akers, and Darren Waller as players he is worried about being wrong about. He's worried that he's too low on all of those guys. All right, we'll come back and hear from Dave after this.
Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today. And Dave, you already talked about Christian Kirk.
So how about Chris Godwin as someone that you're worried about being wrong about?
Godwin was so different depending on the format.
In PPR, he was 18th per game.
In half PPR, he was 21st per game,
or rather 20th per game.
And in non-PPR, he was 31st per game last year.
What are you worried about being wrong about
in regards to Chris Godwin?
He is a consensus round five pick for all of us. last year. What are you worried about being wrong about in regards to Chris Godwin?
He is a consensus round five pick for all of us. Jamie and I at 54th overall, Heath at 58th overall. I'm worried that that's too high. We're talking about a Bucs offense that threw the ball
two-thirds of the time in 2022, the highest that any team threw the ball over the last two seasons.
Do you know what the second highest pass rate was over the last two seasons in the NFL?
Who had it or what was it?
Who had it and what was it?
I'm going to say the Buffalo Bills.
What was the number for the Bucs?
66.7% of the time last year, the Bucs threw the football.
Oh, yeah.
Obviously, the Bucs the year before.
66.2%.
Yeah.
Tom Brady under center usually is a good thing for an NFL team.
Baker Mayfield under center, however, as we all learned last year, not so good.
Actually, we've learned that for many years with Baker.
He's been terrible for wide receivers.
And I want to be out on Mike Evans, and I'm not even the lowest on Mike Evans.
And I'm worried that I'm too high on Godwin.
And so this actually goes back to a podcast we did goodness.
It has to be two months ago where Heath kind of talked about Godwin and how
just the absolute downswing in pass attempts
is going to be enough to just completely put the kibosh on Godwin being good this year.
Do you happen to have your projections open, Heath?
I do.
Okay.
Last year, pass attempts per game for Tampa Bay was 44.2.
Do you have that number for what you're projecting for them this year
with Baker Traskfield under center? Yes, I have them at 33.3. So 11 fewer pass attempts per game.
I think that's reasonable. Which is insane. That's reasonable. Right, right, right. It could be lower.
Like if they get a run game going and for Rashad White's the real deal Holyfield, then you're not going to see them throw the ball 33 times a game.
I'm nervous that the volume will go down. How many targets
do you have for Godwin? 125.
When's the last time he had that few?
He's had injury years, but that would be a low
in terms of definitely before Brady, I would think.
Probably before Jameis.
On a per-game basis, maybe it's a low?
Right.
Well, look, he's actually missed at least two games for straight seasons.
Okay, so let's just talk about targets per game.
Last year, 142 over 15 games. It's almost 10 per game.
I got a 7.4 per game.
Yeah. The last time he was anywhere close to that had to have been 2020.
That year, 12 games,
84 targets, 65 catches,
840 yards, 7 touchdowns.
I don't know what that comes out to on a per-game
basis. I just know that that's not great.
It was pretty good.
84 plus 42.
Let's do the math, you nerd.
126 plus 65.
I'll tell you what he finished that year buddy
I've got the numbers here
200 divided by 12
16 wide receiver in fantasy that year
alright
he was number 15 and remember that was the year they had
77% catch rate with 7 touchdowns
they had Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown that year
although they may have only had
Antonio Brown for the last 8 games of that season
that's the other thing
is that he was also really efficient
and scored quite a few touchdowns based on his targets that year.
I would not expect him to be efficient
or score a lot of touchdowns this year.
Yeah, I don't think there's been a wide receiver
that's scored more than six touchdowns in a season from Baker Mayfield.
I think only two have had over, or three now have had over 1,000 yards.
Did DJ Moore have over 1,000 last year?
I think he did.
No, I don't think so.
We're kind of getting off track here.
No, the bottom line is that Chris Godwin doesn't have Tom Brady anymore,
and the offense isn't going to throw the ball two-thirds of the time anymore.
He's not being drafted as if he has Tom Brady anymore.
He's not being drafted as if he's going to throw that much. I don't think two rounds
is enough. I think potentially
he should be taking at least one more round later.
I would say that
he had a bad year last year
and I think he was very, very obviously
not himself coming back from the ACL.
If you look at all the numbers,
you look at some advanced metrics like
yards after catch, per catch,
explosive catch rate, when you combine
it with his ADOT. His ADOT, he's had three
seasons with a pretty high ADOT to begin his career
and three seasons with a lower ADOT,
including last year, where it was incredibly low.
I think it's pretty clear that he just wasn't
doing enough, not explosive enough
before and
after catching the ball, basically,
last year. But before that, you're talking about the profile
of a phenomenal wide receiver.
And I think reasonable to think that
if he were completely healthy and Tom Brady were still good,
you're talking about a second-round pick in PPR.
Right?
So I think a fifth- or sixth-round pick
is actually a huge discount for Chris Godwin,
understandably so.
You know, and... You know, he's really tough. huge discount for Chris Godwin, understandably so.
He's really tough.
He's really tough.
I'm not so worried about being wrong about him because, again,
I don't think he has that huge upside anymore.
But maybe he does have that huge downside, I think, is the case for me. I'm worried about being too high, yeah.
I've already moved him.
I thought I was around below Dave and Jamie,
so I've already moved him into round six since Dave started talking.
Because he is one of the guys in the projections,
I think I actually have him projected at wide receiver 36th,
and I just moved him up in the rankings
because I didn't want to be that low on him.
But I do want to be low enough on him that he's not ever the guy
who's at the top of my rankings when it's time to make a draft pick.
Did you move him behind Jordan Addison?
Yes.
I think there's almost certainly more upside for Jordan Addison
in terms of targets, in terms of yards, in terms of touchdowns,
with Justin Jefferson getting 180 targets.
I still think that's true.
I think Minnesota is going to challenge
the number of times that Tampa Bay has thrown
in the last two years,
and Tampa Bay is going to throw it 200 fewer times.
Would you guys rather have Christian Kirk or Chris Godwin?
Kirk.
Godwin for now.
All right, let's go to a running back.
I'll stick with a wide receiver.
I'll go to Juju Smith-Schuster.
What are you worried about here, Dave?
I think I'm worried about being a little too low on him.
Let me see where I've got him.
I thought we were going to go with somebody else.
Got him 92nd.
This is another player that's going to be like Geno Smith
in that you don't have to reach for him by any stretch. I'm just wondering, is he the new slot guy in New England? Is he taking over for
Jacoby Myers? He's going to be in that role. This offense will be better this year because they
actually have somebody who's competent calling plays for them. And yes, I just paid Bill O'Brien
a compliment. So there's that. Who else is there to throw to in this offense
when they're trailing or in a competitive game?
They just signed Devontae Parker.
Sounds like Hopkins might not come.
I wonder if volume will be in Juju's favor.
And that makes me wonder if I'm just too low
keeping him close to 100th overall.
They gave Parker a lot more money than they gave Juju, right?
I'd have to double check.
I was just reading it. It's really
incentive-based. But Juju's is too.
Is it?
Juju and Myers signed the same deal,
right?
I thought so.
I have not looked. I can't.
I've been worried
because Juju was not healthy
enough to go to OTAs and all I've been worried because Juju was not healthy enough to go to OTAs.
And all I've heard out of New England is how much Hunter Henry and Mike Gusecki are on the field together.
And how many two tight end sets they're running.
Well, if that's the case, there might only be two wide receivers on the field.
Wouldn't Juju be one of them though?
If he is able to play football.
Okay.
He was hurt for most of the second half of last year
and not ready for OTAs a couple of weeks ago.
Fair.
I don't know what I was saying
about the Juju and Myers contracts.
I think I was way off on that,
but it doesn't matter.
Yeah, so, sorry, Heath, do you not share the same concerns
about being too low on Juju, who is, by the way,
wide receiver 49 and ADP going 115th overall?
That's pretty late.
I think I have him lower than that.
You do?
I was higher.
His contract, no, I just cannot
find there it is
so yeah he's got
he's got two years basically
guaranteed Juju
two years and 16 million
good for him
I understand it
but I think round 10 is probably the right spot.
I think I like it.
I think if in a half or full PPR league,
you're getting that guy on your bench with a chance for him
to lead the Patriots and targets, I think that's good value.
Okay.
It was right.
They both signed three-year $33 million deals.
Now, what was guaranteed and whatnot, I don't know.
Okay, I'm looking at three years, 25 for Juju.
And what was it for Jacoby?
Wasn't it about the same?
It was originally reported at 33.
Nobody cares.
No, but I'm glad we're talking about it.
How many fantasy points do we get for guaranteed dollars?
Well, let's talk about David Montgomery.
And he's someone you're worried about
being wrong about, Dave.
I keep going back to thinking about two things.
I think about how Jameer Gibbs was used in college
and how likely is it to change
in his first year in the National Football League,
and I think about how gaga Dan Campbell was over David Montgomery
when Montgomery was on the Bears.
And we're kind of wedging Montgomery into the Jamal Williams role
where he's going to be the physical grinder between the tackles,
short yardage goal line.
And you just saw what Jamal Williams could do.
I don't think Montgomery's going to do exactly that in terms of touchdowns
because how can you project, what was it, 17 touchdowns?
However many it was for Jamal Williams last year.
But double-digit touchdowns isn't out of range for David Montgomery.
And here's the deal on Gibbs.
Three years he played college ball.
Two different coaching staffs.
Two different colleges.
He was never a full-time player.
He played about 53% of the snaps.
I don't know if that's over the course of his career or last year.
I could look that up, but he was never a full-time player.
He was terrible on runs inside, and he barely played near the goal line.
So how does all that change in the NFL in his first year?
It seems a little unlikely that he would do it.
I'm not saying he can't be an explosive player.
I'm not saying not to take Gibbs ahead of Montgomery.
I'd rather have Gibbs in my PPR leagues.
But I'm the low guy on Montgomery on our site,
and I think I need to change that.
I think he needs to be moved up, and I think he's worth.
He's taking him in round four.
I don't know if I'm there yet,
but if I'm in round five
and I need a running back that can give me
some decent value, maybe around
11 to 12 points
per week, whether it's PPR or not, that's
where I'm going.
Yeah, I mean, I think
my rankings speak for themselves on this one.
I've got Montgomery ahead of Gibbs still in round four and gibbs in round five so i think both of these
guys could be top 20 running backs pretty easily this year i am share your feelings dave you know
about feeling that i'm too low on david montgomery i have obviously made it clear i don't think he's
such a great running back but i do wonder if this is a situation that could unlock a new level of David Montgomery. I'm more concerned about being wrong about Jameer
Gibbs and just his role. And because I think that David Montgomery, even as someone who has been
so negative about David Montgomery, I do think he's one of the best values in fantasy because
he's not going around four and he's not going around six. He's going even later than that. You know, you might be able to get around seven or eight
based on current ADP. It's Gibbs. That's, you know, going to be pushed up maybe in around three
in a lot of drafts. And I'm more worried about being wrong about him. Montgomery, you know,
even if I'm right about him and he's not that good, I think he's going to be a great value
if you're getting him around seven or eight. So, um, yeah, that's, I think he's going to be a great value if you're getting him in round seven or eight.
So, yeah, it's just interesting the way everyone's on Gibbs and people are even lower than you are, Dave, on Montgomery,
which is interesting.
People just don't believe in it.
I don't know.
People love the new hotness.
Yeah, I think you said round three in some drafts, Adam.
My expectation is that Gibbs is going to have a round three ADP by
August. If he doesn't,
I think he probably already does in high stakes
leagues or best bowl, but not in best bowl
because they only draft wide receivers.
Yeah. In NFC since
June 1st, Jameer Gibbs is RB
14, which will be
a round three pick in a lot of drafts, but in this
particular, they'd seem very wide
receiver heavy in these drafts. He's round four.
All right, I think only
one more player. James Cook, our
last guy that Dave is worried about being
wrong about. Number 10 on the list of
10 players. I don't have
data to back anything up on this.
I'm just thinking about how the Bills
have worked this offseason
to try and diversify
their passing game. They didn't really do anything and diversify their passing game.
And they didn't really do anything to diversify their passing game
as far as running backs go.
And James Cook really didn't do anything last year in the passing game
to suggest that he's about to get a bigger role there.
But we knew that coming out of college, he was really good
at catching the football, and the Bills kind of underutilized him
a little bit.
He only had six games with 10 or more touches.
Five of them came in late November or later.
He did score in three of his last five, including the playoffs.
See, I do have some stats for James Cook.
I just wonder if this is a talented player in a high-powered offense
that wants to try and change or take advantage of how defenses are playing them
is really what I should say.
That he ends up getting more playing time,
maybe plays 55% of the snaps,
and does some good things for Buffalo this year.
So I wonder if I'm being a little too harsh on Cook,
and I don't have him ranked high enough.
Do you have Cook or Harris ranked higher?
I have Cook higher than Harris.
How about you, Heath?
Not by a ton.
13 spots overall.
Not at position overall.
Yeah, I've got Cook.
I'm a little guy on Cook, by the way, on the site.
I might have Cook 13 spots at running back
higher than Harris.
But I
mostly agree with what Dave said. I think that the hard
thing is that Buffalo has to do something that they have not done
two things.
Probably they have to take some of the rushing responsibility off of Josh Allen's shoulders
and something that would kind of be tied to that, that they really indicated last year
they wanted to do.
And then didn't really, they've got to throw their running backs even more. And if they do both those things,
then I think James Cook could be a top 20 type running back.
I was trying to get Dave another stat.
I believe I'm almost there.
No, you're going to have to talk about James Cook for two more minutes.
You know, you think about Harris and Cook, and it's very easy to just think, oh, it's going to be to talk about James Cook for two more minutes. You know, you think about Harris and Cook,
and it's very easy to just think,
oh, it's going to be like Singletary and Cook last year,
or neither of them were really great for fantasy.
But Damian Harris, in those last three seasons,
has played 10, 15, and 10 games, I think.
Or let me hold on.
10, 15, and 11 games.
He has missed a lot of time, and that's what keeps me up at night when I think. Hold on. 10, 15, and 11 games. He has missed a lot of time.
That's what keeps me up at night
when I think about James Cook. I don't
really worry too much if Harris is healthy,
but if he's not healthy,
then I feel like I'm probably not going to draft a lot of
James Cook, but if Harris gets hurt,
that could be a big mistake on my part.
Not drafting Cook.
Sure. Sure.
Obviously.
Because Singletary never got hurt, really.
I mean, Singletary just always stayed healthy.
Right.
I think there's a chance that Damian Harris could just not be that good and Cook could take touches from him.
I think that's possible.
Well, why do you think they signed Damian Harris?
Why do you think they let go of Devin Singletary they signed Damian Harris why do you think they let go
of Devin Singletary and signed Damian Harris
and I'm just asking I don't know I'm not sure if I probably they probably I don't know more
physical but Singletary is fairly physical I don't know Dave and the thing is though it's he's
don't you feel like he's gonna have to do more than just take some touches from him?
I don't know how you're a successful Bills running back
unless you're more or less the only guy,
like we saw that stretch of Singletary two years ago
at the end of the season.
Or you're catching a buttload of passes.
Right, but that's just never happened.
Right, it's never happened,
but let's ask this hypothetical question.
Why did they draft James Cook in the first place?
Thought it was for that reason.
Right. Everybody did.
Yeah.
Okay. And it takes a while for a team to trust a rookie running back to do that, to do specifically that. It doesn't happen every day where a rookie comes in. Like in the case of Bijan, I'm expecting that. I'm counting on that.
With Gibbs, I'm counting on that.
That's what he was best at.
We'll see if Cook can prove in his second season that he can bring that element.
Can he get five targets per game?
That would be a surprise to me, but.
It would be high.
Well, it's a surprise based on the offense that he's in.
But I think Buffalo
is trying to change what they're doing.
All I know is Stephon Diggs is going to be a super
happy guy if James Cook's getting
five targets a game and Dalton Kincaid's getting
120 targets.
Diggs is going to be just right on board with that.
I don't think either
of those guys are getting either of those things.
The rosies...
If I am the Dalton Kincaid guy, I don't think either of those guys are getting either of those things. The rosies. I mean, if I am the Dalton Kincaid guy, I don't know.
But 120 targets seems ridiculous.
I don't think that would happen.
Someone's hurt if Dalton Kincaid is getting 120 targets.
Yeah.
I feel like if Dalton Kincaid is getting 120 targets.
I fill in the blank.
If Dalton Kincaid is getting 120 targets as a rookie, then he should be the blank pick in rookie drafts.
Fourth.
Fifth.
Fifth.
Maybe sixth.
But he is going in like the eight to ten range
in most of the rookie drafts I'm in now,
and I still wouldn't take him in round one.
I would, because
I think he could eventually be
90 targets a season.
All right, let's read some emails. FantasyFootball
at CBSi.com. This one
comes from
Kyle. Go Bills.
He says, hey, Eric
and Derek and
Jarek. I drive a lot for
my job, so I listen to every episode,
but I rarely take the time to write in
because I'm driving.
But I thought I'd sit down
and get these thoughts off my chest.
Why are we, and by we, I mean you, Adam,
confining the Eric joke to a single name
when it works so well for multiple names?
Let the good times roll, please.
It's also odd that there isn't a notable Eric
in fantasy football right now.
A great line from a great movie
getting swept under the rug.
Also, why are we separating kickers and
DST? A kicker is a special
team's player and a field goal is a special team's play.
What do you guys
think about that? I'm not separating either of them.
I put them in the same spot.
Someone
else's league. Yes.
I think
that's how kickers come back into fantasy is that they're lumped in with
dsts and i've tried to i've tried to convince the powers that be at cbs can you make a setting where
the kicker and the dst is just one big unit and they're like well why can't you just have the
same somebody drafts the dst and they automatically get that team's kicker and i said because that's
just more work.
Just put it all together.
I don't know why that hasn't happened yet.
Probably because like four people would use it.
Why aren't you talking about how every other team in the league
is going to copycat the Philly scrum?
And why is it going to benefit guys like Josh Allen
more than Patrick Mahomes, Heath?
Well, because all the Bills are doing is talking to us
about how they do not want Josh Allen to run so much.
Wasn't one of Cam Newton's big injuries towards the end,
and I'm just going to bring Cam Newton up every single time.
Every time, he's your guy.
Somebody talks about Josh Allen.
But wasn't one of his big injuries at the end
trying to dive into the end zone on one of those types of plays
where he just took a monster hit to the shoulder?
I don't remember it with Cam.
I remember it with Mahomes, though.
Well, Mahomes dislocated his knee,
and they have literally not run a quarterback sneak
with him since.
He will not be doing that.
If the Chiefs start doing that,
then it's going to be Noah Gray in the Taysom Hill role.
Right. There you go.
Okay.
Why am I still holding on to Zach Ertz in my dynasty league?
That's another question.
Because if he stays on the Cardinals,
he's probably going to be a top 12 tight end for a while.
And he might get traded.
Define a while.
Wait, hold on. Let's move on.
As long as he's healthy.
Okay. Why would Zach Ertz be much worse than he was last year?
Yeah.
Okay, anyway.
We don't have time for this, do we?
And he put a GIF in.
Or GIF, sorry, GIF.
We don't do GIF anymore.
Why is this all I can think about when you, Adam, Dan, and Jacob
are on Beyond the Box score? And it was
a gift from the Simpsons of a
newscaster talking about the astronauts
going into space and going, a
mathematician, a different kind of mathematician,
and a statistician.
So that's what he thinks about when we do
Beyond the Box score. Fair.
I don't think it
was. I have to check, but
I didn't think it was. Happy early birthday to Chris Towers. I forgot about that. Yeah, you know, I don't think it was. I have to check, but I didn't think it was. Happy early birthday to Chris Towers.
I forgot about that.
Yeah, you know, I don't like you having control of the comments.
I really...
I love it.
I don't like it.
I've really tried.
I think it brings a whole new level to the YouTube stream.
I could tell, Adam.
I can tell every time I use it that you don't like it.
And I have this fear that at some point you're going to take it away from me.
And so I'm trying not to use it too
much. I can't take it away.
Yes, I can take it away from you.
I will take it away.
I can't take it away from you.
Here's a keeper question here from
Dave.
Give me a name and a city.
Barbara from Montgomery, Alabama.
Barbara says
nine keeper super flex league standard scoring. I have the third overall name in a city. Barbara from Montgomery, Alabama. Barbara says nine
keeper super flex league standard
scoring. I have the third overall pick.
He tells us who he's keeping
which includes one quarterback
for would you
keep for his last keeper
Stafford, Lance or James Cook
in a standard scoring league super flex.
Hmm.
So he only has Dak.
Yeah.
And he has the third overall pick.
I would keep James Cook.
You can take Stroud or Bryce Young,
whichever one you prefer, whichever one's still there.
Or do you keep Stafford, keep it in win now mode?
Oh, it's a standard league.
Oh, do you get Gibbs with three?
Or do you go receiver with three?
Or do you do what Heath suggested?
Yeah, maybe you go with Cook,
and then you draft the quarterback at three because it's non-PPR.
Although, why are you keeping Cook if it's not?
I don't know. Cook is probably the best answer. Cook and the QB at three because it's non-PPR. Although, why are you keeping Cook if it's not? I don't know.
Cook is probably the best answer.
Cook and the QB at three.
Okay.
Or Cook and the best player available at three
and then maybe try to make a trade.
Well, the only way the best player available,
in my opinion, it's a super flex league, right?
Yes.
Yes.
So the only way a best player is not a quarterback
is if Bijan falls to three
and then you're just going to be dancing in the street.
Not happening.
No dancing.
You could, in theory, I could see some people taking,
because he thinks Bijan, he says Bijan and Richardson will be off the board.
So if you just aren't sold on any other quarterback, you could take Gibbs.
You could take JSA or something.
I would say, okay, that's possible.
And I would understand that.
I understand people who are not sold on Young and Stroud as top 10 QBs.
I don't understand people who think they're going to be worse than like 15th to 18th long-term for dynasty purposes.
They're good quarterbacks.
Okay, here's one from Jason.
Happy 4th to you guys.
Thanks for all you do.
Happy 4th to you guys. Thanks for all you do. Happy 4th to you, Jason.
10-team 2QB Dynasty League PPR
and 6 points per touchdown.
Champion two years ago.
Runner-up last year. Still in win-now mode.
I have pick 102 in the rookie draft
because of a trade.
The guy with 101 might take Richardson
because he needs a quarterback or two.
It's 2QBs. If he does take Richardson, I'll take quarterback or two. It's two QBs.
If he does take Richardson, I'll take Bijan.
If he's smart and takes Bijan, should I take Richardson
or go for it this year with Gibbs and be a little risky with my quarterback situation?
He has Josh Allen, Tua, and Cousins.
Oh, dude.
Your quarterbacks are great.
Yeah, you go Gibbs.
You go Gibbs, right or did you read off his
running backs no they're not great eckler miles sanders antonio gibson algier gainwell hubbard
zamir white josh kelly you should try and give the world for 101
just go to the dude and say what what do you want for 101? Yeah.
I'd give 102 and whatever 111 or 12 you have from this year as well
and a 2024 first and just go get Bijan.
Yeah.
Okay.
This is from Litos.
Hey, Bo, Josh, and Marcus.
Come on.
Raiders running backs.
Yeah, there you go.
I need some help with my two Superflex six-point-per-passing touchdown keeper leagues.
Maybe just one.
Yeah, one league will do.
Half PPR, my longstanding league, my first year going to Superflex.
I anticipate the top 16 quarterbacks will be kept,
except for, obviously, Anthony Richardson.
I'm keeping Lamar Jackson in the second round, but which other two players
should I keep? Remember, QB will be scarce here. So,
Jordan Love in the 10th, J.K. Dobbins in the 9th,
Calvin Ridley in the 13th, or Christian Watson in the 13th?
I can't pass up those receivers.
You'll find a quarterback to draft.
I would take Watson and Love.
No.
Dave, you like Ridley or Watson better?
I believe...
Let me check.
Well, who do I like better in Dynasty?
It's Watson.
That's not even close.
Mm-hmm.
Do you want to know for Redraft?
This is a keeper league.
This is not a Dynasty league.
How many years can you keep them?
Can you keep them?
Doesn't that use to be one of our jokes?
Yes.
All right, I don't care anymore, Dave.
Thank you very much.
Everybody have a wonderful 4th of July.
Heath's very legit, very existent Dynasty show is going to air tomorrow in this feed.
That's what we should call it.
Heath's very legit Dynasty show.
Try to get that into the graphic.
Yes. Anyway, enjoy your holiday.
And we'll be back Tuesday with the pre-recorded show
and Wednesday with a new one.
Later.