Fantasy Football Today - 10/09: What's Legit After 5 Weeks? Also NYG-NE and Regulators! (Fantasy Football Podcast)
Episode Date: October 9, 2019We're nearly a third of the way through the season, so what have we learned? We've certainly learned a lot about WRs as Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, D.J. Chark and Courtland Sutton are among the surpris...es in the Top 12. Can they stay there? We begin the show with a look at what recent history tells us ... Buy Low WRs (9:25) and Buy Low guys at other positions (23:30). And some Sell High guys (24:15) as well. Then we've got your news and notes (28:55) and the good and bad QB surprises through five games (32:35). Are Wilson, Jackson, Prescott and Minshew legit? Do Mayfield, Goff or Rodgers have great production in their future? ... Previewing NYG-NE (44:24) and wondering if any Giants are worth starting. Then we talk more about Chark (50:00), bring the Fantasy Regulators back (58:10) and answer a bunch of your questions ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Five weeks into the season, we're trying to figure out what's legit, what should you buy, what should you sell.
And we're going to preview the worst Thursday night football game on record.
Welcome, everybody. Adam Azer here. Going to talk to my two friends.
Well, who's the first one? Hey!
Heath Cummings, ladies and gentlemen. How are you feeling through five weeks of the season?
Fantastic. It's been a five weeks of the season? Fantastic.
It's been a great start to the season.
There's been some things that happened we didn't expect,
but that's why we play this game.
It would be really boring if we were five weeks into the season
and the rankings for the season looked like our rankings before the season.
No fun at all.
And our second friend today, Benny and the Gretch.
Ben, what's going on?
Yeah, so I agree that it's been a little unpredictable in terms of the rankings.
Are you liking that?
Specifically at wide receiver.
It's kind of crazy.
Well, I think friend is a relative term, Adam.
We're not friends?
Who's...
I'm just kidding.
No, you're not kidding.
That's the sad thing.
No, no.
I'm obviously joking i i it's interesting
because this year i i think if we really dug into it this year we'd find it has been more
unpredictable than than most years so i think there's a little bit of an issue where we could
uh be looking at prior years where you know stats have stabilized to this point but prior years, a lot of those stats are the higher ADP guys,
the guys that we would expect to do well
because there's been more variance this year.
I think there might be a little bit less stability going forward.
It's interesting.
Well, I think what's really interesting is
when you look at the best wide receivers in fantasy,
so this was something I had Ben pull together before the show,
who were the top 12 wide receivers in fantasy through five weeks,
each of the previous two years, and what did it mean going forward?
So in 2017, 2018 was very sticky, I guess you could say.
Basically, everyone who was top 12 after five weeks
finished as a top 15 wide receiver.
DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones,
Devante Adams, Tyree Kill, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas, Adam Thielen, Juju, Mike Evans,
Stefan Diggs was 15th in non-PPR, 10th in PPR, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen. So actually,
I actually think all of the top 12 wide receivers through five weeks and PPR finished top 12. It feels like a mistake, but that's what I'm seeing right now.
That was 2018.
2017, there were some exceptions.
Guys who were top 15 or top 12 rather through five weeks didn't finish that high.
Chris Hogan, I remember he had like a two touchdown game against the Jaguars.
He also got hurt.
Stefan Diggs finished wide receiver 19.
Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers got Stephon Diggs finished wide receiver 19. Jordy Nelson,
Aaron Rodgers got hurt,
and Nelson finished as wide receiver 50.
T.Y. Hilton,
remember he had like four good games that year? Two of them happened to come in the first
five weeks, but his bad quarterback play, Andrew
Luck missed the whole season, knocked him down
to wide receiver 25. Devontae
Adams ended up top 14,
but not quite top 12.
And Odell Beckham got hurt.
But basically in 2017,
it was either, yeah, sorry,
it was either a bad quarterback situation
or an injury.
But yeah, what were you going to say, Ben?
But basically what we're seeing is
if you're good through five weeks,
you're good rest of season.
Yeah.
Basically.
No, and that's been true the last two years.
But I will say that the error in the 2018 stats is that I got
knocked out of the,
uh,
the,
the quick screener that I was running this morning.
And it looks like I just gave you the,
the full season top 12.
So that's why they all,
but you didn't give me that.
They weren't in order.
They weren't in order.
That's why it looks like what we have through,
what we have through five weeks last year was actually Adam
Phelan,
Michael Thomas,
Deandre Hopkins, Cooper cup, Devonta Adams, Antonio Brown, Stefan Diggs, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Robert Woods, Golden Tate was in there, and Juju Smith-Schuster.
So it still is like a very, very similar list.
Yeah, it's still pretty good.
Golden Tate got traded.
Cooper Cup did not fit in.
Obviously, he got hurt. All right, so I'm still going to stick with the thesis here, guys, that if you're good through five weeks, you're good. And look at the top 12 right now,
because if this sticks, this is going to be a wild year. Chris Godwin, Michael Thomas,
Cooper Cup, Amari Cooper, DJ Chark, Keenan Allen, Will Fuller, Tyler Lockett, Julio Jones,
Cortland Sutton, Tyler Boyd, Allen Robinson.
Heath, that's your top 12.
It includes Godwin, Kopp, Chark, Fuller, Boyd, Sutton, and Robinson.
I mean, wow. Wow.
Yeah, some of those guys are more surprising than others, obviously.
One thing we talked about at the beginning of the year and we've talked about it in years past is that mark of 120 targets
and that if you have 120 targets over a full season you're probably going to be good no matter
how good you or your situation is and so i guess that's the first place i would look is guys that
are not getting seven targets per game and are in this top 12. I'd be
pretty skeptical that they're going to peep it up. The guys that are the lowest DJ Charks had 27
targets for the season. Will Fuller's at 28. Um, now Julio is only at 26. I would hope at some
point he's going to get above a 20% target share in Atlanta. And then the one at number 12, at
least the numbers I'm looking at, I think you said Robinson was 12th. What I was looking at had Thielen at 12th.
Adam Thielen's got
20 targets. So those are the guys
I would be worried about keeping it up.
Okay, yeah.
I have them tied, actually. So how about that?
Robinson has
42
targets and Thielen has 30.
Is that what you're seeing?
Yes.
Okay. I'm not as worried about Robinson. two targets and Thielen has 30. Is that what you're seeing? Yes.
Okay.
Well, we're going to talk about... I'm not as worried about Robinson.
So one thing I want to mention on the stat, though,
I want to be kind of a Debbie Downer on the stat,
because the reason we're talking about the stat is,
I kind of mentioned in the open,
that is because there has been a bunch of wide receivers
that have kind of come out of nowhere and been in the top 12.
When we look at the 2017 and 2018 lists, almost all of those guys were drafted in the top three to five rounds. So,
so far this year, we have a lot of guys outperforming from the lower end at the
wider sphere position and a few of the top guys not performing well. We look at this list and we
can say, oh, a lot of these guys through five weeks stayed in the top 12 through the end of
the season. But probably the best way to look at this would be to take those later round guys if we want to draw that conclusion those breakout
guys that have been top 12 over the last maybe more than two years had five ten years and see
how many of them actually stuck because i don't know that we're comparing apples to apples by
saying deandre hopkins or julio jones in the last couple of years have been top 12
through five weeks and stay top quo compared to a dj chart okay but yeah i think it's i think it's
really interesting because i think you you take wide receivers early because you expect them to
be a little bit more predictable than running backs and it's just not happening right now so
we're gonna have to talk about the the bust wide receivers so far and who's by low and who's just not happening right now. So we're going to have to talk about the bust wide receivers so far
and who's by low and who's so high, who's just going to have a bad year.
I mean, you've got to look at track record.
Odell Beckham Jr. is having such a bad season right now.
Two straight games with two catches for less than 30 yards,
and he's just got such a great track record.
So I don't know.
Heath and Ben, I address this to Heath because Heath and I cover fantasy baseball.
Ben plays a lot of fantasy baseball. It's like the
fantasy baseball guy in me wants to
look at Odell Beckham
and be like, this is ridiculous.
He's going to regress.
We use that all the time in baseball.
Not quite as much in football.
But the football guy, you're a third of the way
through the season.
You can't just rely on that.
I think that's what you have to look at it
as pretend Odell Beckham like Odell Beckham would be Matt Carpenter at this point right he's played
50 games and he's hitting 190 and yes I still think he's probably going to be good again I don't think
that there's a very likely situation this Cleveland situation is as terrible as it has been all year
long but I also don't think it's very likely that
Odell Beckham is going to be the guy that people who draft him draft him to be. It's somewhere in
between there. I don't feel as confident in him over the next 11 games as I did at the beginning
of the season. And I was, I think, one of the lower guys on him. So yeah, he's a borderline
top 12 guy for me at this point, rest of the season.
Well, let's hope he's not Matt Carpenter,
because Matt Carpenter hit.226 for the year with 15 home runs.
All right, here we go.
Buy low, sell high.
Ben, who are a few buy low guys?
And here's some of the players we're going to talk about today.
We're going to talk about surprises at each position.
So Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew.
These have been pleasant surprises, whereas Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff,
Aaron Rodgers, they've been bad for fantasy.
Derrick Henry, Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, good.
Devontae Freeman, James Conner, Joe Mixon, bad.
Chris Godwin, DJ Chark, Cortland Sutton, Cooper Cup, good.
Evans, Beckham, Hopkins, bad.
We'll talk about Disley and Hooper and all these guys.
And we got regulators coming up as well and a lot of emails, fantasyfootbsi.com ben bylo go ahead yeah i'll start with the underperforming elite wide receivers i mean i kind of just touched on why so deandre hopkins julio jones guys that
are not seeing the volume that have a really long track record of seeing that volume the reason to
take wide receivers high or the reason that we talked about taking my receivers high, is wide receiver targets are the most projectable volume stat,
more projectable than running backs maintain their opportunity.
They have lower injury rates.
What's happening with these guys is a pretty small sample.
I wouldn't compare it to fantasy baseball,
because even though we're looking at a third of the season,
it's only five games.
And for all of these guys, Odell Beckham, they've had a couple like weird game scripts that if that's 20 percent of the sample to now, like one game, like for Beckham, we can look at Monday Night Football.
They were down 31 to three.
Baker Mayfield threw for 100 yards.
That's not really comparable to baseball, where when he gets when Matt Carpenter gets a third of the way through the season, 20% of his season was that type of game context
that really would impact his numbers.
The Browns have had a couple games like that that have impacted Beckham.
Julio's had a couple bad matchups.
And the Texans have had a couple really low passing volume games as a team.
I'm not really concerned about the Texans as their passing game as a team.
I'm not really concerned about Julio and the Falcons passing him as a team. I'm not really concerned about Julio
and the Falcons passing him as a team. I think guys like Austin Hooper and Will Fuller
producing is going to really actually open things up and allow these guys to continue to be the
number ones down the line. So those are guys that I really want to buy low on right now.
I still would have them top five. Ben, do you think, and I don't know this for sure,
but it's something I've been thinking about early in the year.
We saw over the last couple of years some of the young offensive minds that have come in and had great, or maybe not even young in some of the cases, but Doug Peterson, Philadelphia, and what they've done with the Rams, Sean McVay.
In several different places, we see less of a lots of targets going to one guy, more of a spread it around.
It's almost like if fantasy analysts can say
this guy is going to get this many targets on a given week,
then that's not good because then defensive coordinators can say
this guy is going to get this many targets on this given week.
And early in the year, like for Beckham,
it hasn't really happened so much.
His target share is not too far from where it was with the Giants. He's just
not been able to connect with Baker Mayfield because
Baker Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens have been terrible.
But for Hopkins and Julio,
they are really spreading the ball around, and
for the most part, it's working. Hopkins has
really never had this talented of a cast
around him, even with
Kenny Stills hurt. Fuller
and QT both being healthy.
I just wonder if we're seeing more offenses start to move a little bit more
that direction.
No,
it's a great point because,
and this is something I've actually written about the last couple of years.
We've seen a,
and I know this is ties into what you're saying as well.
We've seen a huge increase in the shotgun,
right?
We've seen a huge increase in three wide receiver sets.
And,
and even now this year, we're seeing more four wide receiver sets with the, with the Cardinals really leading the shotgun rate. We've seen a huge increase in three wide receiver sets. And even now this year,
we're seeing more four wide receiver sets
with the Cardinals really leading the way there.
But when you get more players
and more receivers on the field
and out in routes,
it kind of makes sense.
I think a big reason why we used to see
really massive target shares
was when we had way more one wide receiver
and two wide receiver formations,
you had the elite number one wide receiver
essentially just running a higher percentage of the routes in his team's offense and now we're
seeing more plays where more guys are out in routes and and i think from a real football
standpoint good quarterback play is basically taking what the defense gives you and we are we
are seeing that it's been a multi-year trend. We have definitely seen that. I still think these guys, as the number ones,
will eventually work back towards their higher end.
All of that didn't change overnight in 2019.
And so the reality with Hopkins and Julio,
these guys, they've had down games before volume-wise.
They've had stretches throughout their career volume-wise
that have looked a lot like what we've seen to start this season.
They usually always bounce back and have these big
games and big stretches. I do agree with you. I think it's going to be flatter over time,
and that is a trend that we are seeing, but I'm still buying into these top-end wide receivers.
And I guess, you know, for Heath, that's why when I asked you who the number one wide receiver was
going to be going forward in PPR, you took Michael Thomas. He's just a target hog.
He's not sharing really with anybody.
So, you know, that's a good point.
Beckham's got one target so far inside the 10-yard line.
There are two or three players on the team who have more red zone targets
than Beckham.
So I'd like to see him get a little bit more involved there.
I know they're going to try to get him involved.
They did that, you know, with passing, running, and receiving on Monday,
but just had a terrible game.
So let me ask this.
Is there an elite wide receiver that you don't think is an obvious buy low?
Like an elite wide receiver who has struggled.
Okay, Juju cannot be a buy low.
He's getting seven, eight targets most games.
That's just, you know.
Maybe he's a buy low if you're buying really low,
but he's not an elite guy anymore, right we can just establish that for juju yep yep okay so what
about what about evans what about beckham hopkins like there anyone that you're avoiding it's like
actually there's really worrisome signs here and i'm not interested in buying if i have to pay
anything substantial for For who?
For anyone.
No, for Evans.
You're asking.
No, for the bust wide receivers so far.
For Evans.
Got it.
For Hopkins.
I thought you were saying you had one that you weren't really interested in.
Well, Juju. There's none for me.
Okay.
Yeah, Juju's the main one.
I agree with Heath that Michael Thomas, I guess Michael Thomas isn't a buy low at all.
He's been very productive the last couple of weeks, but he was for a minute there when when Breeze got got hurt.
But I mean, I'm not worried about him at all.
It's guys that I would look at guys that have had quarterback injury.
So for Juju, I am concerned because they're under the third quarterback and they're not going to throw as much.
A big reason to like him was the Steelers threw more passes than any team last year.
And they threw a lot in situation, neutral situations.
It wasn't just when they were trailing
and they were throwing a bunch to get back in games.
Of all the heavy pass teams last year,
they had one of the highest pass rates
in these neutral situations.
So with Roethlisberger around, you're like,
okay, they're still going to throw
and he's going to potentially lead the league in targets.
That's not going to happen
with their third string quarterback.
So that's not something, we do have to be concerned about him.
But the other guys, Hopkins, Julio, I'm not concerned about those guys.
People are freaking out about Mike Evans.
I'm not concerned about Evans at all.
Evans is so interesting because he's had one good game.
He was just beat up on the Giants.
No, well, he had one good game and then one good catch because he had like a 60-something yard touchdown catch against the Rams.
So he has had two good games,
and he actually doesn't rank that low in fantasy right now,
but he's had three total duds, including no catches.
Also, he's got a terrible recent history against the Panthers,
and that's his opponent this week, and then he's got a bye.
And that might make him an even better bye low.
But the reality with Evans is a
couple of things. One, he's a downfield target with a high average depth of target, whereas
Godwin is going to be more of an underneath high volume, high target guy. Godwin's production
should be more consistent in this offense, whereas Evans should be more boom or bust.
But the big thing for Evans, you got to remember, he started the season with a stomach bug,
played week one through it, played limited snaps in week one.
Then they had a Thursday night game in week two, turned around three days later, played
again.
That really impacted his weeks one and two.
I'm only looking at it like he had one healthy dud game this past week.
And I'm not going to go nuts on that.
Coming into last week, he was one of two guys, him and Julio, who had at least 100 air yards
every game.
He's getting tons of downfield volume.
His booms are going to continue to come because of that downfield volume.
I mostly agree.
The only thing that I am concerned with with Evans
is that, and I didn't put too much stock
into this before the year,
Jameis was pretty inaccurate throwing down the field.
Almost all of Evans' targets are coming down the field,
which is generally a good thing.
Jameis has once again this year been pretty inaccurate
throwing the ball down the field.
He's
not been on target with a very high percentage of his throws over 20, 25, 30 yards towards the
bottom part of the league. So that could hurt Evans if Godwin's taking most of those underneath
targets and the targets Evans is getting. I mean, he might have a 45, 50% catch rate this year.
And if he has games where he only gets five or six targets, there's going to be lots of
disappointments. The one guy I would say that we viewed as a borderline elite wide receiver
that's been a bust so far this year that I'm not buying low on is Stefan Diggs.
And I like Stefan Diggs a lot, but it doesn't matter.
Like, it doesn't matter how good you are if you're going to have games
when you're getting four or five targets per game.
And once again, they won.
They threw 27 passes.
They've now played five games with Kevin Stefanski calling plays.
They've not won five games with him calling plays.
They've not thrown more than 28 passes in any of those games.
It's a good call.
And, you know, Diggs, like, Diggs could have a good week this week.
But if he has a good week, it just doesn't mean he's going to have another one the next week.
Like, don't be like, see, you know, don't buy high on digs, I guess,
because it's just going to be inconsistent.
All right, so let's do like the Chris Godwin test.
Would you trade Chris Godwin for Hopkins, Julio, Beckham, or Evans?
Where would you put Godwin amongst that big group of five, including Godwin?
So Hopkins, Julio, Beckham, Evans, Godwin.
Where would Godwin rank there? I think I'd put him third I mean you got you got Godwin wasn't like uh he's not an
out of nowhere guy he was a fourth round pick I think I'd put him ahead of both Evans and Beckham
right now I think I would still take Hopkins and Julio I definitely put him ahead of Evans Beckham
was is the one I'm really struggling with I think both Godwin and Beckham I would
expect to be borderline top 12 guys for the rest of the year it's probably one of those situations
where I'm just not making the trade on either side if I get offered Godwin for Beckham or Beckham
for Godwin I'm just gonna like they're a push would you trade Tyler Lockett for Mike Evans
I would take Evans on that yeah I don't think i would i think they're kind of the same guy
and lockett has a better quarterback um so the yeah no i i agree with that my my reasoning would
be that evans has more consistent volume that i think we get too caught up in this like one or
the other with godwin and evans it's a really high volume passing game yes winston's average
depth targets come down but evans is still getting the downfield volume. Like I said, a lot of air yards pretty
much every week. Once those plays hit more consistently and he's healthy and not playing
sick, like he's going to continue to, I think he's where we drafted him. He's that player.
The only thing that we're like, I, it is a very high volume in terms of air yards and going down
the field, but the number of pass attempts has been lower through five games than I expected
because their defense, at least the run defense, isn't quite as bad,
and they've run the ball a little more than I expected.
So that's the only reason I would have Evans more like in the high-low teams.
Evans has one game with more than eight targets,
and he's like a 75 catch guy usually.
So he's not great in that regard in PPR.
He's been inconsistent in his career.
I don't think he's been what we've drafted him to be.
I think he's had one game with 15 targets.
He hasn't been.
Right.
I think he is going forward.
Would you take Cup over Evans?
Who was the question? Would you take Cup over Evans? Who was the question?
Would you take Cup over Evans?
Oh, that's really close.
I think you've got to take Cup just on what he's doing,
on his current production.
All right, so that's a bit of a wide receiver discussion there.
We've got some giveaways.
We've got a giveaway.
I was going to wear my Fantasy Football Today t-shirt.
I'll have to wear it tomorrow.
But you can get one on Facebook. If you go on there to our fantasy football today group
and tell us your favorite player favorite fantasy player of all time and why i don't know ben heath
do you have like a favorite fantasy player i think i have a least favorite fantasy player
though my memory's a little foggy but i believe jamal lewis fumbled in a fantasy playoff game
and cost me a championship but um i don't know if you guys have like a favorite player who won you a league oh yeah oh you got oh yeah devon aroma show do oh there you
go ever be my favorite fantasy player back in 2009 won me my first championship in my most
important league uh week this is back when we played i think our championship game was week 17
week 16 he had like 150 yards and a touchdown. Week 17, he scored twice.
I started him both weeks, and he was awesome.
And I will always love you, Devin Aroma Shodoo.
Oh, that's very nice, Heath.
That's very nice.
Also, we're going to read some of your iTunes questions.
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So please leave us a nice review, and we'll read your questions.
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All right, guys.
Well, here we go.
We got a tough task ahead of us because we're about halfway through the show.
We've gotten to one subject.
So here we go.
Heath, throw out a few more buy lows, if you will, and we'll just do them quick,
and then we'll get on with it.
Yeah, I'm definitely buying low on David Montgomery.
That was a very disappointing performance
in London, but that game
just went wacky. The Bears obviously
didn't really care about
the Raiders on this day, but I would expect better
things. I like the fact that he's getting a higher
share of the snaps, of the
carries, and a little bit of work in the passing game.
David Montgomery is going to be a number two
running back over the rest of the year. Go buy
low, and I'll buy low on Marquise Brown was like i'm it didn't like that he got a little
tweaked ankle in that game but he's still the number one wide receiver in baltimore and i think
better things are ahead for this pass offense all right ben how about sell high candidates who are
you going to sell high on yeah i think tevin coleman and matt breeder are two good candidates after a big uh after just a
you know demolished game for the 49ers in an island game the 49ers are averaging 200 rushing
yards per game right now that's obviously great but also everyone's very aware of the fact that
they're running the ball incredibly well they just lost kyle juice check i i'm concerned a
little bit about their ability to keep that up uh I think both those guys you can get pretty good value for right now
if you have a little bit of depth at running back they're good sells
and then it's pretty price dependent but Godwin Cooper Cup
those are guys that if you're going to get absolutely elite returns for
I think you can sell wide receivers are a position that is very high variance
and then Amari Cooper is the third one that I would put
in here Michael Gallup's been hurt and actually if you look at the three games that Michael Gallup's
played alongside Amari Cooper he's actually gotten more targets more area yards just by a little bit
but they're basically two number one receivers I do think you have to be a little bit concerned
about Gallup's emergence for Cooper I mean not not necessarily a way that he's going to steal
all of Cooper's thunder,
but he is going to be productive as well. It's kind of like the Godwin and Evans situation.
These things are going to ebb and flow. All these guys have other good receivers in their offenses,
and if you can get a really, really high return for them based on how they're producing right now,
I would sell. All right, Heath, who are you selling high on? Yeah.
A couple of names that you might think of as, well, are they sell highs?
And I think they are.
Adam Thielen and Devontae Freeman.
You look at what Thielen's done so far this year.
He's on pace for like 96 targets and 980 receiving yards.
He's a top 12 wide receiver because he's scored four touchdowns in five games.
There are going to be good games for Diggs.
There are going to be good games for Thielen.
There are going to be duds for both as well.
I would sell Thielen after that huge game
because I don't trust him as a top 12 wide receiver
with this type of pass volume in Minnesota.
And then Freeman's been very involved
in the passing game the last two weeks.
He has one game this entire season
with more than 30 rushing yards.
He has not been near as good by any metric
running the ball as Ido Smith.
I wouldn't be surprised if they turn that into more of a 50-50 type share
like it was for a while with Tevin Coleman there.
And I don't trust he's going to continue to keep getting this many targets
because we just talked about it.
Julio Jones at a 19% target share.
He's going to take a bigger chunk of the pie,
and I would anticipate Freeman's going to lose.
All right, would you guys rather have Adam Thielen or Cortland Sutton?
I gotta take Thielen, but I love Sutton.
I've been on him since the offseason. He's a legitimate
breakout.
I probably
wouldn't make that trade. I would
view them both similarly as
top 20
guys, but not top 12
guys, but I probably wouldn't make that trade.
I'd probably just keep Thielen. When he says sell high
on Adam Thielen, it's not, you know, sell him
for a bag of balls here. It's sell him for
DeAndre Hopkins, you know. It's sell him for
Well, you're not going to get DeAndre Hopkins, but
Well, you know, look, I see some of the trades that go
through, and you'd
be surprised. Look, Hopkins, there are
legitimate concerns. I don't think this is a terrible idea
to offer Thielen for Hopkins.
He's got four straight games with eight or fewer targets.
And we just talked about all those concerns,
but of course, all of us would rather have Hopkins
than Thielen.
But Beckham, would you give up Thielen for Beckham?
Because you 100% could make that trade.
And I don't know if I would make that trade,
but all right, you would.
I think I'd take Beckham.
For sure, I'd take Beckham. For sure.
I'd take Beckham.
Yeah.
Okay.
And then as far as Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida go,
would you rather have Tevin Coleman or David Montgomery?
I'm taking Coleman.
I'm not – I'm a little bit concerned about Montgomery.
I agree with Heath that he's been playing a good amount, but I'm just a little bit concerned about Montgomery. I agree with Heath that he's been playing a good amount,
but I'm just a little bit concerned about him.
They're kind of the same guy.
They're going to be in committees.
They're going to get 15 to 18 touches on a given week.
But San Francisco's rush offense looks better right now,
so I'll take Coleman.
Okay.
The committees are so different, though.
Montgomery's got his role. If they're at the goal line, they're giving it to him. I don't know what they're
going to, they're probably going to lean toward Coleman and at the goal line, but not necessarily,
but that would be obviously a big, a big factor there. Kyle, you stick being out four to six
weeks is a big deal with an MCL sprain. So let's go to the news and notes. It's a, it's a big deal
in two ways though. It's a big deal that they're probably not going to run
the ball as effectively, but they were averaging
5.5 yards per carry, so they could lose 20%
of that and be okay. It's also a big
deal that there are more targets available for the running
backs because they design a lot
of pass plays to running backs, and a lot
of those have gone to Juszczyk.
The news and notes. The Giants could be without
every good player for their Thursday night game
at the Patriots.
Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Eli Manning, Phil Sims.
Dallas could have both of their starting offensive tackles back this week at the Jets.
Sam Darnold's going to play this week.
Heath, is Sam Darnold the starter this week against the Cowboys?
I wouldn't start Sam Darnold in the two-quarterback league.
But you've got to buy low on the jets.
I don't know if,
I don't know if it's true.
Oh,
it is for me.
They've been playing such high snap shares.
Yeah.
They just,
they,
I looked at it the other day and Luke Falk had the second lowest, um,
air yards per attempt in the NFL this year.
Minimum 40 attempts.
The only quarterback with a lower air yards per attempt was Sam Darnold.
In one game.
In one game.
Against the Bills.
It's Adam Gleason's offense.
I think Le'Veon Bell is the top five running back rest of season,
and I don't think you have to pay top five running back.
That's a great point.
I mean, I think he's absolutely there.
I think Sam Darnold helps Le'Veon better than anyone.
What's that? I think Sam Darnold helps Le'Veon better than anyone. What's that?
I think Sam Darnold's return helps Le'Veon Bell.
Right.
I don't know about more than anyone, but a lot.
Yeah, I was down on him coming into the year,
but his share of the backfield has been extremely high.
His receiving volume has been there,
and now he should get some scoring opportunities.
His team hasn't even scored any offensive touchdowns, so it's not like this guy like bell's had any chances to score any
short rushing touchdowns i think he's going to be like based on what we've seen in terms of his
share of the backfield and his receiving role he's going to be a top five ppr back the rest of the
way hasn't played anywhere near that uh an easy buy low for me there and the receiving options
you have to expect will be better with arnold rob Anderson, Chris Herndon coming back for sure.
Philip Dorsett was limited at practice.
So we'll see if he plays Heath.
If Dorsett plays,
well,
we'll look at that game.
We'll get to that game.
Darius Leonard should be back after the bye.
Cam Newton's out this week.
People in the league around the NFL are convinced that the Redskins are
going to promote Kevin O'Connell to their head coaching position.
According to the Washington Post,
he's their offensive coordinator. Kansas City's defensive line is beat up. Xavier Williams
has a high ankle sprain. He's a defensive tackle. They already have the worst run defense in
football. So maybe Carlos Hyde's interesting this week. Rob Gronkowski is a football analyst now.
That's awesome. And Baker Mayfield did shake hands with Richard Sherman. I don't know what
you're talking about, Richard Sherman. Okay, we're going to look at the early season surprises.
We're going to preview the game.
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Okay, I'm going to give you the surprises, the good and the bad at each position. And you tell me,
I guess what you're buying and what you're selling in this group.
The quarterbacks, the good surprises so far.
Russell Wilson is QB 2 in 6 points and QB 1 in 4 point per passing touchdown leagues.
Oh, no, I switched that around.
QB 2 in 4 point, QB 1 in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues.
He has a 126.3 passer rating.
He's up pace for 4,500 yards passing and 38 touchdowns with no interceptions.
He is, quite frankly, your MVP.
Also, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, and Gardner Minshew.
We'll talk about him separately.
But in terms of Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson all being top five quarterbacks right now.
Heath, what's your reaction to that?
What's legit? I don't know what to say about Russell Wilson all being top five quarterbacks right now. Heath, what's your reaction to that? What's legit?
I don't know what to say about Russell Wilson anymore.
The rules of what a quarterback is supposed to be able to do
just don't seem to apply to him.
I will say that he's averaging more pass attempts
than I anticipated that he would,
and if that continues,
then he's going to be a top five quarterback.
I don't expect that he's going to maintain an 8% touchdown rate,
but he's now done it for 21 games.
So I think the touchdowns are probably going to come down a little bit,
but it's been a very good start.
He is amazing, and they have had some games
where they threw it a little bit more than I expected.
It's inflated a little bit by a 50.
How many passes did he throw?
50 passes against the Saints.
So, you know, without that,
he'd probably be close to last year's pace.
And he was the number eight quarterback
last year in fantasy.
In that Saints game,
he only threw 21 passes through three quarters
and threw 29 in the fourth quarter.
So that wasn't...
They were at a 21 rush attempt, 21 pass attempt split through three quarters and through 29 in the fourth quarter so that that wasn't they were at a
21 rush attempt 21 pass attempt split through three quarters that you'll have a couple games
like that where they're chasing and they got to throw a ton but i do agree with you totally adam
that that was that's boosted his overall volume quite a bit yeah but he's amazing like don't get
me wrong i just i don't think he's the number one quarterback in fantasy. I would make a trade. Tell me how you guys feel about this.
Give up Russell Wilson and Chris Carson.
Get Aaron Rodgers and Le'Veon Bell.
Maybe a little bit worse than Chris Carson.
No, I would definitely do that.
Although I'm not 100% sold
that everything's just going to be fine with Aaron Rodgers.
All right, we'll get to him.
What about Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott?
You know, Lamar Jackson, his passer rating in five games,
perfect passer rating week one, 104.8 in week two,
70.6, 96.1, 54.6.
So he's not throwing the ball as well.
Still running.
Ben, is he a legit top five quarterback or at least close to it?
Yeah.
No, he's 100% a legit top five quarterback.
You didn't need him to be the best passer in the league for him to be a top five fantasy quarterback
because of how good he is and how much he runs, how good he is at running and how much he runs.
I believe he's 15th in the NFL right now in rushing yards,
including all the running backs.
He has more rushing yards than like Todd Gurley.
He has more rushing yards than David Johnson.
He is basically an RB2 running the ball.
And then you're, I mean, that gives you a mass,
a huge floor every week as a quarterback, even when he's not throwing well.
Last week he had his worst passing game.
He ran 14 times for 70 yards because he's their offense. When he can't throw,
he's going to run. So you're going to get that huge floor. And then he also has a massive ceiling
when the passing does work out. And I think he's shown us enough for us to expect that there will
be those boom games going forward with his arm adding a lot of value as well. I think he's a
legitimate top five quarterback and four point for passing touchdown leagues and six point
for passing touchdown leagues. I wouldn't be surprised
if he's a more of a low end starter,
but I still expect him to be good.
He's number one so far in four point on
a per game basis and number four in six
point and he doesn't have a carry
inside the five yard line yet. Mark Ingram
by the way leads all players
with seven carries inside the
five yard line.
Gus Edwards has three.
Dak Prescott is number five in both formats, 4.6 point on a per game basis.
Yeah, he's on pace for more than 5,000, more than 5,100 passing yards,
which is crazy because he's never even thrown for 3,900 yards.
We're buying this breakout, guys, for Dak. Yeah, I think you got to be really encouraged by what
they did in week five that they came out throwing again after week four where they went a little
more run heavy even though it was against the Packers although the Packers did kind of
bring some they played a little bit different on defense than they have been where they've been
giving up a lot of rushing yards they brought a few more bodies into the box to stop Zeke
but they came out throwing throwing down down the field. That wasn't necessarily
good, but we saw from Kellen
Moore what we saw in the first couple weeks, and we think this is
going to be a vertical passing game going the rest of the way
or we got those indications. So
I'm and with
Michael Gallup back and producing right away
again, I'm really optimistic about Dak.
I would take Dak over Russell Wilson.
Yeah, I'll take Dak over Wilson as well.
I will say this is a little bit maybe of bad news for Ezekiel Elliott.
I agree.
I think the bad news for Zeke is that he's just not really involved in the passing game.
But the reason he's not is because they're throwing the ball down the field in this new offense.
Sure.
Okay, yeah.
No, his catches are way down.
Gardner Minshew.
I mean, he's 20 to 24 fantasy points in four out of five games.
He doesn't throw much, though.
25, 33, 30, 33, and 44 pass attempts.
The longer Jalen Ramsey's out, the better it is for him.
The 25 pass attempts were in relief against Kansas City.
But Gardner Minshew has a top 12 quarterback,
which is what he's been so far.
Are you buying that, Heath?
This is another one of those situations,
kind of the reverse of the elite wide receivers.
You can go looking for things that would make you think
that Gardner Minshew is not actually this good.
I struggle to find them in terms of what he's shown us in the NFL so far.
He's given us just about everything.
He has no reservations about throwing the ball down the field,
and DJ Chark is making plays for him on those balls. But he's also not somebody that just
goes back and wings it down the field. He's got a 67% completion percentage and he's fifth amongst
quarterbacks and rushing yards. He's doing all of the things that lead to fantasy production.
He's got an offensive coordinator that wants to throw the football more than Jacksonville probably
should.
I'm not worried about his past attempts because their defense hasn't been great.
It's okay.
But in games when they're behind, he's got a good volume.
He's really only got one low-volume game if you don't count the one that he didn't play the entire game.
Right.
I'm in on Gardner Minshew as the top 12 quarterback.
Well, I guess it depends.
Yeah, okay, fine.
I accept that, that only one low volume game but um but how about the fact that he's thrown in weeks two through four
gardner minch you threw for 204 to 213 yards in all three games and that's extremely low so i you
know and that houston game another get another uh example of of a guy getting a lot of his yards
late they were trying to get back in that game.
It was like a 13-6 game.
But I think he had under 100 yards through the first three quarters.
But no, I mostly agree with Heath.
I like him.
I think kind of the comp is probably like Ryan Fitzpatrick with Tampa Bay last year.
Not necessarily Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout his whole career.
But with Tampa Bay, he was willing to throw it around a lot more.
Still had the potential to be kind of a blow-up
and throw some interceptions, and we might see that with Minshew because he is willing
to take some shots, but I agree with you.
So far, he's been really productive, really consistent and accurate.
He has a strong completion percentage.
I think it can absolutely stick.
I don't know if he's going to be a top-five guy, but he's a guy that's worth using, definitely,
when he's willing to throw this much, and he's shown the accuracy and he's shown the production so far.
And the other thing I would say about him is he's faced a Carolina defense
that's giving up fewer than six yards per pass attempt.
He was at Denver the week before that.
He was against the Titans the week before that.
He has not had an easy schedule.
Even the Chiefs, like they're not a good defense,
but they haven't been terrible in terms of fantasy
points allowed to quarterbacks. His
schedule moving forward is better than it's been so far.
Okay, I've got
three quarterbacks who have been surprisingly
bad this year, and I just want you to tell me quickly
Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff,
Aaron Rodgers. Do you
see big, big production
ahead for any of them? Baker Mayfield, Jared
Goff, and Aaron Rodgers.
Not certain.
I feel very uncomfortable.
I think Goff's going to be good.
Yeah, Goff at home.
That's what I was going to say.
Goff and his home matchups, we can still expect good stuff.
Rodgers, like you put in the notes here,
completion percentage in yards per attempt consistent with last season.
It's consistent with the last five years of his career. It's not elite. He's been a seven yards per attempt consistent with last season. It's consistent with the last five years of his career.
It's not elite.
He's been a seven yards per attempt guy.
That's not a very good quarterback anymore.
It's fine.
It's below average now.
It used to be about average.
The biggest thing is Aaron Rodgers used to audible out of these run plays
and throw touchdowns for us,
and now they're just running the ball into the end zone.
Jared Goff leads the NFL in pass attempts per game.
He and Matt Ryan are tied.
They're actually behind Eli Manning and Cam Newton barely.
But for all intents and purposes, Jared Goff is on pace for almost 5,300 yards.
But he's on pace for 22 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.
So if you can see better production coming, the volume is there.
It's going to go down a little bit, but they don't run the ball as well.
I know, but they don't run the ball as well.
500 yards?
Yeah, he just threw for 500 yards, but he's missing the big play.
He's been great inside the red zone, inside the green zone,
which we'll call inside the 10-yard line,
but one touchdown pass so far of more than 11 yards.
That is just the big play from the Rams offense running game and passing
game is completely missing.
If you have confidence in that coming back,
then golf really could take off.
Cause I think he is going to throw the ball more than he usually does.
Cause I just,
cause girly is just not the same guy.
But you know,
it's obviously it's to be determined something wrong there with that team.
The line isn't as good and it's just not as explosive.
The proof is right there in this. I agree that though that's a good take and 117
passes over the last two games uh kind of kind of backs that up that that they may throw a lot
more this year i mean they're kind of leaning that way already it'll come down he's not gonna
throw 50 times a game but right he's gonna for 700 he's gonna throw a lot i i think and i and
i like that it just he has to get got to get some big plays going there.
All right, I'd love to go see a Rams game, ladies and gentlemen.
It looks like a very nice stadium.
I'm sure I could get some tickets.
Oh, it is a nice – it's an old stadium.
It is a good stadium.
They haven't moved into their new one yet.
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Well, I know we're not going to get to everything we wanted to get to here,
but we'll try.
Let's preview the Thursday night game.
And I think we can do that in about 30 seconds.
So start them all, sit them all to a degree.
Heath, you have Tom Brady, I think, as a top five quarterback this week.
Sounds like that's about right.
He's in that range. You're
starting Tom Brady. You're starting James
White. You're starting Sonny Michelle. Those guys
get a little more complicated if Rex
Burkhead plays, but probably not. You're starting Edelman.
You're starting Gordon. I don't
want to trust Dorsett even if he tries to play.
He shouldn't be trying to play. I
do push back just a
little bit on the sit-em-all
Giants thing in PPR.
I don't...
I know what you're going to say.
You're going to throw 40 times.
What is different about...
The only one that you maybe convinced me on...
Let me get this out of the way. If Evan Ingram plays,
you start him, right? You have to?
Of course.
The only one I could push back on is Golden Tate, right?
Or I could see making a case for it.
Because Shepard's out.
Ingram might be out.
So Golden Tate, six targets against Minnesota,
three catches for 13 yards.
The Patriots have not allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver yet.
The best games they've allowed,
Cole Beasley had seven catches for 75 yards.
John Brown had five for 69.
They both had double-digit targets.
You're going to talk to me about the running backs, though.
John Hilleman and Eli Penny.
What is different this week than last week when those guys combined for 12 carries for 35 yards
and two catches for 13 yards in what I think is an 18-point loss to the Vikings?
They weren't involved in the passing game.
Wayne Gallman only had two carries in the game,
so he wasn't a factor.
Why would I have any faith in John Hilleman,
who's 17% owned?
I don't know that faith is the right word,
but there are four teams on a bye,
and I think he's going to be a top 30 guy in PPR.
I would anticipate him being a little bit more involved in the passing game.
They weren't as beat up going into that game as they are this one.
They had more people to throw the football to.
And I would expect, and you said 12 for 35.
Well, Wayne Gallman played two.
He got two.
No, no, no.
14 carries for 49 yards from the running back.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That was good. Well, 14, no. 14 carries for 49 yards from the running back. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That was good.
Well, 14 for 49,
if you figure that they're probably going to get four targets
and catch a...
I think you're probably looking at
an eight to nine point floor for Hilleman in PPR.
And then if he happens to score a touchdown, boom.
Okay.
Would you start Josh Gordon or Golden Tate in PPR?
Gordon by a lot.
Come on.
How could this be a question?
Golden Tate had like 15 air yards with his six targets.
Like, you're going a little bit much with his six targets.
His ADOT was like 2.3.
It's got to be Gordon, right?
I mean, well, Gordon.
Yeah, it's Gordon.
Gordon himself is obviously a frustrating player.
This is maybe his last. Huge week for him. It's got to be, right? Like, we got to it's Gordon. Gordon himself is obviously a frustrating player. This is maybe his last.
Huge week for him.
It's got to be, right?
Like, we got to start Josh Gordon.
Well, I'm not saying it's going to be.
I'm saying if it's a huge week for, like, how we view him
and whether he's a must-start guy or not.
Juju Smith-Schuster or Josh Gordon, guys?
Gordon.
I'm starting him.
I expect it to happen.
That's a really close one. I'd probably him. I expect it to happen. That's a
really close one. I'd probably rank them
really, really similar.
I'll give you a running back. How about
Tevin Coleman or
Josh Gordon?
I'd play Gordon.
Carlos Hyde at the Chiefs or Josh Gordon?
Gordon.
You're too low on these.
Carlos Hyde at the Chiefs or Golden Tate?
PPR.
Tate.
I would play Carlos Hyde.
Carlos Hyde or John Hilleman?
Hilleman.
Yeah, I like that.
That's where you go with Hilleman.
Well, but Carlos Hyde, I'd be like...
Basically, to his point, we know he's going to play pretty much every down.
I mean, that was basically his point. He's going to play pretty much every down. I mean, that was basically his point.
He's going to play pretty much every down.
He's going to get almost all the running back touches.
Yeah, Penny will get some, but they don't have other backs.
How about, oh, I had a good one.
Oh, Sony Michel or a Chargers running back?
Eckler for me.
Both Chargers running backs over...
Well, in PPR, both over Michel.
Okay.
Chargers have the Steelers on Sunday night.
Patriots DST is number one overall.
Heath has them number two behind the Chargers.
Dave and Jamie have them number one.
And I think that's more or less it.
Philip Dorsett, Heath?
No.
Okay.
All right.
Well, we're going to take a break here.
That's it for the video version.
You'll see the rest of it on YouTube.
You know how it goes.
YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today.
Let's take a break.
We'll come back.
We'll finish up with some more early season surprises,
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So in evaluating the notes that I have created for today,
I realized we're not going to talk much about running backs or tight ends, but we focused on quarterbacks. We focused on the buy low wide receivers,
the Evans, Hopkins, Julio, Beckham group. We're not so into buying low on Juju Smith-Schuster.
But one guy we haven't talked about is DJ Chark. And DJ Chark is a top 12.
I think he's a top five wide receiver right now.
And what do you think about him?
He's truly breaking out.
Well, so far anyway.
27 catches, 485 yards, and five touchdowns.
And based on the previous two seasons,
if you're top 12 at this point in the year,
it's a pretty good sign for the rest of the year.
So, you know, 37 targets
in five games. He had 11 last week. He's had eight or more in three of his last four.
And what are you seeing from Chark? Are you buying it?
I think to a degree. I mean, you have to like a few things. You have to like how good Minchu's
played. He's shown an ability to support support some receiver production and i think we should expect that to continue you have to like uh his
his volume his role since week one every single week it's been there the targets and the area
arts he's been the downfield guy that's consistently got the downfield looks and he's
hitting on a lot of that and then also you just gotta like him as a player he's a really good
size speed uh combination i think he's six foot three runs like a four three four i mean he's a he's like a 90 above the 95th percentile height adjusted uh
speed score type receiver so has that type of ability and it's and it's translating right now
the things you have to be wary of are just the efficiency so far right like the td rate is
extremely high the yards per target are extremely high it It's not easy to just be this good on downfield targets all throughout a season. Just naturally,
you're going to have a few more that drop to the turf, whether they get defended better,
whether he doesn't necessarily bring them in, whether the passes aren't as on target.
They've been really locked in. I think you have to really like him. I do think he's going to go
down a little bit. I don't think that he's going to go down a little bit.
I don't think that he's going to keep up this five touchdown in five games pace
or this rate of big plays in the downfield passing game,
but the volume's there, and his role's going to be there all year.
He's still at least, I would say, like a wide receiver three the rest of season.
Would you rather have DJ Chark or Devontae Freeman rest of season?
I'd take Chark or Devante Freeman rest of season? I'll take Chark.
Would you rather have DJ Chark or
man, I thought you might say Freeman
there. Todd Gurley.
I'll take Gurley
on that. I am
really down on Freeman, so that would be the reasoning
there. Okay. I mean,
I'm down on Freeman too. Probably not as much as
everyone else because until I see Io smith really get a share of carries i'm not gonna i'm still gonna see
the primary running back in a great offense right who's involved in the passing game
and he does he has a good role in the passing game freeman's the type of back that i wind up on
or two down on and i would just say that like I'm probably
two down on him.
It's just because
I don't see upside.
So he's a guy
you can plug into your lineup
and probably get
consistent production.
And if you want
that high floor,
that's fine.
But for me,
like I want every guy
in my roster
to have upside
potential week winning upside.
That's what I
that's what I shoot for.
So Freeman's a guy
that I end up way down on
because of that.
All right.
Well, I want to hear from the people for the rest of the show.
We got regulators.
We got emails.
I'm probably not going to get to fill in the blank, but I'll try.
Let's go to the iTunes mailbag here and see what those kind commenters are saying.
Bob says, this is my first year as a commish for a work league.
I woke up to the league doormat.
He doesn't set a lineup.
It still has Antonio Brown. He had made
a trade, the worst player in the league,
had made a trade of Deshaun Watson and
David Johnson. Oh my gosh.
For Daniel Jones and Cole Beasley.
Deshaun Watson and David Johnson
for Daniel Jones and Cole Beasley.
I instantly rejected the trade and I let the league
know that all trades involving the inactive owner would not go through until he starts
participating.
The other team involved in the trade is in an uproar over the trade not
going through.
Did I make the right decision vetoing Watson and David Johnson for Daniel
Jones and Cole Beasley?
This is great because we always say don't,
not you necessarily.
Heath definitely says never veto and I'm typically more on heath's side
i absolutely think you made the right decision i think when you're in the uh when you're in a
position where you're not even setting a lineup you still have ab in the league you should be
kicking this person out of the league and trying to find a replacement owner if you can't yes this
person should not be making trades and definitely not lopsided trades like this if they've been
starting players like antonio brown this can't go through. Enough people roster Antonio Brown, where I have to say, if you still have Brown on
your roster, it's fine. In your lineup, it's bad, obviously. And you did the right thing, Bob. That
trade cannot go through. Oh, Bimmer on Apple Podcasts, are Juju and Odell Beckham just flexes
for the rest of the season, given their pass throwers leaving much to be desired?
These are situations that are always tough to answer on the rest of the season, given their pass throwers leaving much to be desired. These are situations that are always tough to answer on the rest of season scale,
because they're kind of guys you want to monitor.
I think you take it week to week.
I mean, right now it might look like that,
but they might end up being very clear starts again at some point.
I still have some optimism for both of them turning around,
but yeah, right now they're more like flexes.
Well, I want to give a stat on Juju Smith-Schuster.
So
he had one terrible game.
But in four of his five
games, he's been basically the
same exact receiver. Seven to eight
targets and around 75 to 80
yards, which is not bad.
And he has scored in two of those four games.
His 16
game pace based on those games is 84 catches, 1,272 yards,
and eight touchdowns on 120 targets.
The reason why I think it's a little fluky is because if you think about those touchdowns,
he's good at that.
I mean, that's what he does.
That's exactly what I was going to say.
But they were a little bit fluky.
The one at San Francisco was a long catch and run.
The one against Baltimore, Marlon Humphrey got picked. He
caught the pass and then Humphrey tackled him
so poorly and Juju got in. So he'll make
some of those plays, but
you know. Yeah, there's two ways
to look at that. One, like with typical
stats, we would say, okay, if the efficiency
on that type of stuff has to regress, yards
after the catch is not very sticky. He has a
ton of yards after the catch. He's been
very productive at finding the end zone breaking tackles whatever on those specifically on those two plays the other
way to look at it is because he's that type of player and he was i think top three for non-running
backs and yards after the catch last year it's a it's a skill that he definitely has because he's
that type of player he might be less dependent on the quarterback because he's running these low
a dot routes five yard routes and he's doing stuff after the catch so maybe he can sustain a little
bit more of this if he keeps up that efficiency if he really is that special after the catch guy
and we have seen some guys maintain that type of ability over the course of their career golden
tate comes to mind as a guy whose whole career has been that type of player.
And he did have one terrible game.
And quite honestly,
like that more of those might be coming.
I can't just completely dismiss a terrible game for Juju,
but I think for the most part,
you know,
if you're asking,
is he a flex?
Is he more than that?
Five catches,
four catches,
five catches for 70 yards,
75 yards.
That's pretty good.
All right.
This is from, I don't have a name here, I'm sorry.
I traded Carson Wentz, Aaron Jones, and Adam Thielen.
Wentz, Aaron Jones, and Adam Thielen all for Alvin Kamara two weeks ago,
and I'm beginning to think it was a bad trade.
The other owner is willing to take Kamara back for Thielen and Aaron Jones.
Would you rather have Kamara or Thielen and Jones?
Kamara by a mile. You're overreacting.
I don't know if it's by a mile until Drew Brees gets back. Once Drew Brees gets back, then
I think I agree.
But he's going to be back in a couple of weeks. He's progressing really well. We've been seeing
a lot of very positive stuff about that. He's shown some mobility just like a couple weeks after his injury.
But Thielen, we talked about it as a sell high.
Aaron Jones, I think, is a lot closer to a sell high than a buy low
because his huge work share has been because Jamal Williams
has been out the last two weeks.
But they like to use Williams when he's healthy.
So I don't think he can keep that up.
Here we go, baby.
Let's regulate.
From Riaz.
My league has kept the same members for 17 years,
so naturally as commissioner,
I have kept records for everything.
In our inaugural 2003 season,
one manager started 12-0,
only to lose week 13.
Only to lose week 13,
and then get ousted in round one
by my Clinton Portis' five touchdowns in week 14.
But his longstanding 12-game winning streak record
has finally been defeated, at least in my mind.
Since week five of last year,
I haven't scored below 100 standard points
or lost a single fantasy matchup,
finishing with 11 straight wins last year
and four this year.
This was last week, by the way.
So that is a 15-game winning streak over two seasons.
The owner of the 12-game winning streak in 2013
says that he has the win streak in single season,
one season,
and my 15-game win streak doesn't count
because it overlaps from last year.
Regulators, does the same season 12-game win streak prevail,
or does my 15-game straight dominance take the cake in the record books?
I mean, I don't know of a lot of leagues tracking all-time winning streaks,
but it's definitely the streak that goes across two years.
No, it's the single season.
That would be an unbeatable record when someone went undefeated.
You don't want that. You want a record that can be beat.
Well, he went undefeated, but then he lost.
No, he didn't go undefeated. He went 12-0.
Okay, so assume someone has a 13-0
year, which happens in fantasy leagues all the time.
Then it's an unbeatable record.
Look, if somebody
has a 56-game hitting streak, or
57-game hitting streak over two seasons,
they're not the hit champion. Joe dimaggio joe dimaggio is the hit champion oh that counts you have different teams
you drafted a completely different team so that doesn't count it's the single season come on ben
gretch you drafted a different team all right matt from philly please regulate for me and my league
mates i'm in a 10 team pPR league with fairly deep benches.
With George Kittle on a bye in week four, I didn't want to drop any of my bench pieces,
so I dropped my kicker and I picked up Eric Ebron to start for the week.
And then I looked at my matchup and my opponent's starting lineup,
and I said to myself, man, I think I can do this without a kicker.
Fast forward to the end of week four, and I was right.
I crushed my opponent by 47 points with an empty kicker spot but the morning after our group chat blew
up they were calling it kicker gate nowhere in our rules does it state that a kicker must be
started or even on rosters was i quote bush league or quote whack for doing this I was the one putting myself at a disadvantage.
No, it's fine. I mean, this is...
Like, can we just move on?
Obviously, you could just not start a kicker
if you choose to.
Like, no.
You are not Bush League.
You are not WAC.
What did you do wrong?
Nothing.
You have a guy on bye.
What do they expect you to do?
Drop George Kittle?
The rules say you don't have to start a kicker
or a roster one, so it's fine.
Make a rule if you have such a problem with it.
Right.
Yeah.
Your league mates are Bushleaguer whack for calling it kicker gate.
Get them out of here.
Yeah, with all the gates, too.
It's just, you know, we're tired of the gates.
All right, your emails.
This is from John Wood.
I'm interested in hearing your opinion on this trade.
I would give up McLovin,
and I would get AJ Green.
You calling him McLovin?
Of course I'm calling him McLovin.
Where have you been?
I've been calling him McLovin all year.
God.
I thought we decided it was F1.
Oh, no, no.
It's definitely not. You're just going with McLovin.
Yeah, well, look.
He wrote McLovin.
I did not.
He wrote McLovin.
Yeah, well well you're training
these people the wrong way i would take him over aj green for sure so you don't when do you think
aj green's back like what's what's the deal i don't know and that's the issue like we don't
know everything we keep hearing every update is worse and worse and worse it's he's already been
ruled out for this week it's already been determined he's not even going to practice
this week he's got to get some limited practices in first then you'll probably have a questionable
tag and probably not play that game i expect at least two three maybe even four more weeks
the bangles have nothing to play for it wouldn't even surprise me if they just shut him down
uh he could get traded he could come back and he could be productive but i don't i have like
very low expectations the rest of the year on him getting back being healthy and being a
a productive and elite fantasy receiver that you
actually want in your roster.
I have a bad feeling about Terry McLaurin going forward.
I think,
I think he's a great sell because I just hate the passing game.
I hate the passing game.
Also,
he has one game with more than 70 yards.
He caught a touchdown in three or four games.
I don't think we expect him to be a 12-touchdown guy.
If he has a big game against Miami,
this is the time to sell
because he has San Francisco in Week 7.
That might be okay.
But at Minnesota, at Buffalo,
and then a bye in Weeks 8, 9, and 10,
I'm not saying it gets better after that.
His late-season schedule looks pretty good.
But I just don't...
It's not that I don't like McLaurin.
It's that I fear dwayne haskins i
really do i think he's going to start okay but i i couldn't disagree more and i was concerned
about colt mccoy he's a dink and dunker and he had a 6.6 average depth of target last week which
is extremely low for a quarterback but the one receiver who actually had a good average depth
of target a 15.8 last week and had uh no sorry he's 15.8
for the season he had a 17.6 average depth of target last week on seven targets 123 air yards
very strong volume in that passing offense last week even though he wasn't very productive that
was terry mcclurin he is good he's a really good yeah no he is he is and i think he might and he's
getting downfield volume regardless of quarterback. I think he might transcend quarterback
and have a really great season.
All right, all right.
From Obimmer.
No, I already read that one.
That was the iTunes,
an Apple podcast one.
This is from Scott.
Are you dropping Jarek McKinnon
for Duke Williams,
Buffalo wide receiver Duke,
in a Dynasty League?
Well, I mean, yeah,
you should drop Jarek McKinnon,
but not for Duke Williams.
You don't
need either of these guys right but there's nobody available in dynasty leagues typically i would
drop him for darius slayton i like darius slayton yeah yeah i mean i would there's a lot of like
yeah some dynasty leagues are really really deep i would i don't think you need to hold
jerek mckinnon yeah i don't think he's going to be fantasy relevant anymore it's kind of
kind of a shame it's sad yeah but you're right i mean i just i don't see he's going to be fantasy relevant anymore. It's kind of a shame. It's sad, yeah, but you're right.
I mean, I don't see it either.
From Matthias, would you rather have Jameis Winston or Kyler Murray rest of season?
12-team PPR.
Thank you for specifying.
Jameis or Kyler?
PPR league.
I think Kyler probably can catch more passes.
People do it all the time.
They tell us PPR with a quarterback question.
I'll take Kyler, though. I really will. passes people do it all that they do it all the time it's ppr with a quarterback question i'll
take kyler though i really will he's he's been what like 10th so far and he hasn't even really
been very good as a passer his rushing i think he's second in qb rushing behind lamar jackson
everything i said earlier about jackson and his rushing and how it raises his floor it's it's
applied to kyler murray over the last couple of, but he hasn't been good as a passer yet. If that passing hits and they want to throw downfield,
he has like the legit top three upside still.
And from Matt,
would you trade Devante Freeman for Odell Beckham?
I would take Beckham.
Yeah,
I would trade Freeman for Beckham.
I think everybody on the show would.
Thank you to Ben Gretsch and thank you to Heath Cummings and to all of our
listeners and all of our regulators
out there
happy hump day
we'll talk to you on Thursday
start or sit
for the AFC home games
I'll try to do some
some more of the
early season surprises
talk to you then