Fantasy Football Today - 11 Dynasty Players to Trade NOW + Rookie Takes w/ Adam Pfeifer! (03/21 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: March 21, 2025

Heath Cummings gives you his list of 11 Dynasty players he thinks you need to trade right now—and Adam Pfeifer shares his own top trade targets! We dive into Adam’s rookie takeaways, including his thoughts on running backs (2:30) not named Ashton Jeanty, whether Tyler Warren (7:28) could rise as a top Dynasty TE, and more! Plus, Heath drops his Dynasty Buys & Sells, featuring names like Justin Fields (11:00), Anthony Richardson, D'Andre Swift (13:10), Deebo Samuel (17:40), Travis Kelce (20:27), Tyrone Tracy Jr (29:50), Justin Herbert (37:00), Mike Evans (43:00), and others. Don’t miss this deep dive into Dynasty strategy, player values, and trade targets. Tune in for expert insights to improve your fantasy roster!  Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcasts Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday SUBSCRIBE to FFT Express on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-express/id1528634304 Follow FFT Express on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6qyGWfETSBFaciPrtvoWCC?si=6529cbee20634da8 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 SUBSCRIBE to FFT DFS on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dfs/id1579415837 FOLLOW FFT DFS on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5zU7pBvGK3KPhfb69Q1hNr?si=1c5030a3b1a64be2 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." Visit the betting arena on CBSSports.com for all the latest sportsbook reviews and sportsbook promos. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Order on the Tim's app today. At participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. It's time for Tim's. at participating restaurants in Canada for a limited time. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Teeth Cummings, joined today by my good friend, Adam Pfeiffer. He's been on the show many times before. I'm sure that you're already following him. You're already reading the work that he's produced.

That's fantastic. But Adam Thank you for being here and just tell everybody here at the top where they can find you. Yeah, always enjoy these visits Appreciate the time. Yeah, go to F10fantasy.com Doing a bunch of stuff. Obviously we have Right now it's it's heavy March Madness time, so we have a ton of amazing content there, which I am not a part of because we have people at that site that are way more knowledgeable with college hoops.

But yeah, I mean, if you, obviously it already started, but hopefully you were checking that out. And then of course we'll be wrapping up the football content with the draft coming up. I feel like this is quietly like the worst time for football and dynasty because free agency is mostly done. We still have a couple of players.

We'll see where they land. And then it's like, OK, cool. The draft is around the corner. But that month is kind of annoying because it is also it's like both around the corner and still weighs out the same time. And not much is going to happen. But I am I'm excited for the draft. I'm ready. I will talk about a couple of rookies today, but I'm just ready to see, especially in the

dynasty league where I pretty much own the entire first round. I'm excited to see everybody goes. I will say it's like it is a little bit of a period in limbo because we've had some values change because of the free agent market. And we think some values are going to change because the NFL draft, we don't know who's. And so we're going to talk today about some of our favorite dynasty buys and sells. I'm actually using the values over at Keep Trade Cut because those are a pretty good approximation of the consensus.

And so I always tell people my trade chart is based on my views and these are how I view these guys. Keep Trade Cut kind of tells you how the community views guys. And so we will talk about at those prices some guys that we are buying and selling. But I want to get started with a few of, Adam said it, the draft is coming up. I want to hear some of your rookie thoughts. So our three questions will be three rookie questions Rank your top three running backs in this class not named Ashton Gentile

Yeah, so I think the consensus is obviously a Martin Hampton at the second spot a lot of people I that I really respect believe He should be like in that same tears gentile just like a spot below him He obviously crushed the combine. He's got the size. He has everything you want like he's got the potential to have 20 carries per game He's got the speed the athleticism. So he should easily be second and then it gets interesting For me, I am pretty high on quinch on Judkins and I think if you are Looking at more of a production profile type of standpoint You can't just solely look at last year when he was splitting with Travion Henderson I think if you are looking at more of a production profile type of standpoint,

you can't just solely look at last year when he was splitting with Travion Henderson because back at Ole Miss, like he, once upon a time, Zach Evans is like a five-star prospect. Right. And he made him almost irrelevant. And it's funny because not that I'm a huge film guy, I like to watch film, but I remember watching Zach Evans' film when he was coming out and It's like when you watch the running back and you actually end up liking the offensive lineman more I was like, okay, who's Zach Evans? This is cool

Who's quinch? I Juggins that's who I need to know about so he was great. I Think with between him and Travion, like Travion projects as more of maybe the upside touches because he can rip off 30 plus yard runs and do more in the passing game. But Judkins with his size, he had a really good combine. He's probably somebody that projects more to get 18 to 20 carries per game and goal line work. Whereas I don't see that happening for Dravion Henderson.

So I would have Quintchon three, or I guess second behind, in this situation. And then I would have Travion. I still like Caleb Johnson. I didn't love the 40 time. I didn't think he was going to run like a 4-4, but I think 40 times also can get overrated. I think from watching him, he looks and plays faster.

But just based off upside, and I think it sounds like the draft capital be a lot, not a lot different, but pretty different between Henderson and Caleb Johnson. I'll put Henderson third. So I have Henderson, then Judkins, and then drug emoji. Right. I go back and Samson, if you like, don't say it could be right. I like Devin Neil quite a bit. Um, but I will say, I think, and we've had this debate over on the main show a few times here recently. And I know Adam said he was on Henderson Island with Dave and Jamie. I'm a Henderson guy. I think the way I'd probably put it is I think Judkins is a better rusher, but we live in a PPR world. And I think Henderson might have like 60, 80 catch seasons.

And so I'll lean towards him because of the scoring system. Do any wide receivers in this class ever crack the top 12 in dynasty? It's going to be tough as much as I do like Tet. I think the best case for Tet could be like, they would have to trade down probably. But like, if you pair him with Drake May, because I'm really high on Drake May. But we've seen like he's gotten comps like Drake London, who's definitely been and probably still is a top 12

Dynasty wide receiver. For me, there's other players too. Like Luther Burden is so polarizing because on the high end, I've seen comps like DJ Moore and Deebo Samuel. And those guys have been flirting with that top 12 at times in Dynasty, especially DJ Moore. But then there's like the, like it really comes down with Luther Burden if you've, how you value production

profile or film. Because production profile last year wasn't great, but the year before it was like age 19 elite breakout season. It's everything you want, but then you look at how he gets there and it's a lot of scheme stuff. It's a lot of slot usage is mostly only slight usage. And now on one hand, that could be really bad because a lot of those players that are strictly in that mold, you look at that, you know, the low end comps he could potentially

have of Malachi Corley, Curtis Samuel, some of these guys, Kadarius Tony, maybe. But then that's also a way to get really high floor and high. Just give him two screen targets per game and give him like eight slot targets. Let him do stuff, have to catch. So I think if he hits and his film is better than a lot of people suggest and he does go first round to a good team burden, if he really hits, I could see. But it'll be I think it'll be pretty hard, not because these players aren't talented, just the draft classes

we've seen before these guys. I mean, last year, the years before, it's just those guys feel pretty cemented, especially last year when you have Ladd, Brian Thomas, all these guys. And I think that the other name, obviously, is Travis Hunter. If he's a full-time wide receiver Then then maybe he like that could be the spot because if he goes to the Patriots Maybe they view him as a wide receiver because they brought in they already have Gonzalez. They brought in

Why am I blanking on who they brought in a corner? But if they view him as strictly as a wide receiver, yeah now we're talking right question number three is Davis by the way, is Tyler Warren going to be the tight end three and dynasty soon? I? Mean He's gonna get top 20 draft capital probably you can make the case as soon as he drafted just because one and two are pretty locked with Bowers and McBride Like if you ranked him third at tight end right say he to Denver. Say he goes to the Chargers, right? You could talk me into third right now.

And it's not, I don't think Warren is anywhere close to Bowers as a prospect. But it's just like, that third spot is really up for grabs. It's probably LaPorta right now. For sure. Then you have Hawkinson. But Kinkade bust, potentially. Pitts, we know it's not happening. There's really, and then you have, but, Kinkade, bust, potentially. Pitts, we know it's not happening.

Like, there's really, and then you have, obviously, the veterans like Andrews, like Kelsey, like, those guys are way down there because of their age. So, honestly, I think it's yes, and I guess the question more is, like, how soon? Right. Yeah, yeah. This year it could happen, but Laporta could also take it back this year

or just solidify himself. Like, if you told me that he goes, whatever, 20th or could happen, but La Porta could also take it back this year. Like if you told me that he goes whatever 20th or 21st, whatever Denver's at. And he's there. Well, I guess he might not now with Evan Ingram there, but it maybe goes to the Chargers, right? Like, do you like him more than La Porta? I will probably need to, like I'm always a little bit slower on the tight end, so I'll probably need to see him do it. He'll, he'll probably be fourth for me. Probably be ahead of Hawkinson.

But, and they're just usually not with Bowers, obviously, not with Laporta. There's usually so much patience needed with these tight ends. This is weird. I'm not had the stretch where rookie tight ends were doing nothing and back to back seasons are doing everything. That's exactly right. Let's take a short break and then let's get into our favorite dynasty buys and sells.

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going to act up and cause them to miss games? And that kind of is a, I think a good jumping off point for like sells and buys are based for me largely upon value. What does everyone else think of them? I did go look at McCaffrey just to see he's currently RB 17 over at Keep Trade Cut. And it's a good time to mention that they already have their rookies in the chart. So Judkins is ahead of him. Henderson is ahead of him. Hampton is ahead of him. Gentie is ahead of him. So that'd make him RB 13 amongst players who are currently in the NFL.

I've got him at RB 16. So yeah, I think if you, like, if you can get that value, I'm not sure RB 13 is quite taking into account the full risk of McCaffrey at the same time. Saquon Barkley is my RB five. I wouldn't be all that surprised if McCaffrey is better than Saquon Barkley this year. Like he might be surprised if McCaffrey was the best player in fantasy this year. Exactly. His, his range of outcomes.

And I've made this comparison before and it's a good way to jump into my buys. It reminds me a lot of Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson right now, except even more extreme because McCaffrey might play a couple of games and the injuries are too much and we just never see good Christian McCaffrey again, or he might be the best player in fantasy. Fields and Richardson, my two buys at the quarterback position and I know a lot of people immediately are going to say, they might be not worth nothing. Well, they're not worth much right now.

They are currently QB 26 and QB 27 over on Keep Trade Cut. At that cost, you don't find quarterbacks in that range of value that have the potential to give you a top five season. And I think both of these guys have the chance this year to give you a top five season. Yes, they also might lose their jobs, but these are the tips. If you can find this much upside for this cheap of a cost, I think you have to take that swing. I'll be trying to take that swing this offseason, Adam. I got a couple of

questions last week on the mailbag, maybe it was earlier this week, on the mailbag that swing. I'll be trying to take that swing this off season. Adam, I got a couple of questions last week on the mailbag. Maybe it was earlier this week on the mailbag about should I just accept this second round pick and in super flex for Anthony Richardson. I'm so scared of what's about to happen. I'm happy to give up a round two pick for Richardson or Fields right now in super flex. Yeah. I mean, if you told me Justin Fields plays the majority of the season, like I think his floor is quarterback 15. Like, I just don't see him being worse than that. And then Richardson, like, yeah, everybody's talking about Daniel Jones, but like

and we're just talking about like the downside of OK, what if Richard loses his job? Like, what if he doesn't? His floor is probably pretty high, too. He had a handful of really good fantasy weeks to end the season last year. And those were in games where Jonathan Taylor was literally getting 30 carries. So I like that, especially, obviously, Superflex.

Like, it's hard to get quarterbacks. But quarterback 20-70 set for field is kind of crazy to me. I think that should be updated quite a bit based off the fact that he has a starting job right now and I would like to see the Jets get a better second receiver but we know he can run for 700 to a thousand yards and I just think like I finally started redraft rankings yesterday and fields I Think was like QB 12 for me. So I just don't see him being worse than like QB 15 if he starts a majority of the season.

Another guy whose value certainly is volatile for the next month and a half DeAndre Swift with what the Bears may or may not do at the running back position. But over on keep trade cut he's currently RB 35 in the dynasty rankings. And I think people look at what happened with Ben Johnson. They say, you know, Jamal, I said it Jamal Williams scored all those touchdowns. Ben Johnson obviously hates Deandre Swift, but even in that tandem, he was more valuable than this ranking. And Swift is a guy who is 26 years old. If things click this second time with Ben Johnson, we might get a couple of top 12 seasons out of Deandre Swift.

I've got him valued as RB 18, and that's without the rookies. I'd probably have three or four rookies ahead of him. So if you want to say RB 22, still 12 spots ahead of where he is valued by the consensus. Are you buying Deandre Swift at an RB 35 36 cost? And I'll just tell you the other guys that that are in that range are I'll pull that up in a second. I thought I had his name right here on the list. What do you think of Swift and kind of the volatility with the new coach, the potential of the Bears drafting a running back? What does this future look like? So with the moves the Bears made in the offseason with the offensive line drew Dahlman Joe Tooney everybody they brought in I

Feel like now it's this set in stone Lock that genti is going there, but like he has to be there first. The Raiders could take him. And unless they get Gentie or Hampton, that's the only way I could see Swift just becoming a 30% snap, six touch per game type of player in this offense. Then you have the fact that everybody's so focused on how Ben Johnson wasn't a fan of Swift's

and they moved on from him but the other Swift's Look at that stretch early last season granted. They were all in good matchups but he he was a top 12 running back in most of his weeks was really good and We talked about the offensive line upgrade being good for Cale Williams and whoever the running back They draft is and I do think they draft a running back, but that could still apply to the Andre Swift.

I don't see a scenario where, again, unless they draft Janty and it's midway through the season, that Swift is just relegated to a backup role entirely. So RB 35 is, especially for a team that's loaded at wide receiver, good at tight end, good quarterbacks, a little thin at running back. You don't need the Andre Swift to become a top 10 player at that price tag.

And he can kind of be one of those underrated kind of roster, players on your roster to really fill it out. So I like that. And again, I think really, unless it's Hampton or Genty, I'm not freaking out about Swift, especially at that price. Just a reminder that 2022 season, he had only 99 rush attempts and 14 games. He was RB 17 on a four game basis that year.

So yeah, yes, he's probably going to share with someone else. I don't think he's going to get 20 touches per game, but you don't need it. If Ben Johnson's offense works as it has worked, the offensive line should definitely be better. He's been wildly efficient in the past. He's been used as a pass catching back in the past. We expect this offense will have plenty of targets for the running backs. Go by DeAndre Swift at that cost.

I found the list. Here are the five running backs directly ahead of Swift currently. TaiJay Spears, Ramondre Stevenson, Jonathan Brooks, Tank Bigsby and Jordan Mason. I mean, the only player that I mean, obviously Mason, if he becomes the starter at any point, but like right You're you're with Tajay Spears If Swift loses work, he's probably getting the same work Spears gets Right, so right and he's probably and no, I don't want to say probably I mean we still have to project the Bears, but there'll be a better offense in Tennessee. So yeah, I The only one that really makes it somewhat compelling is Mason, but that would probably

be more of a next year or two years from now thing because I think this is probably the last year Aaron Jones is there. Yeah, I would think that's the case. At the wide receiver position, I've been on an island here at CBS on this guy, so hopefully you will have some optimism as well. Although, I'm not sure how much optimism will have some optus optimism as well. Although I'm not sure how much optimism you have to have to buy Debo. Debo Samuel currently wide receiver 50 over on the keep trade cut values. I like this fit a lot in the cliff Kingsbury offense with Terry

McLaurin working the deep part of the field. Debo taking the underneath stuff. Maybe a few of those targets that went to Zach Ertz last year can go to Debo, even though Ertz is still going to be there. And we've seen him have a really disappointing efficiency season in the past, and then bounce back the next year. I'm not sure he was ever fully healthy last year.

I think Washington probably throws more this year than San Francisco did last year. Not worried about the target volume opportunity now that he's gotten away from Iyuk, Kittle, McCaffrey, Joanne Jennings. I think this could be a nice bounce back year for Debo Samuel and again wide receiver 50. He's cheap enough to where you're not risking much.

So as I tend to do when I come on the show Heath, I like to plug the FTN fantasy stats up because it's just so fun to look through all the stuff. So when he got traded to Washington, I wanted to plug the FTN fantasy stats up because it's just so fun to look through all the stuff. So when he got traded to Washington, I wanted to look at some of the stats because everybody knows Debo had it down 2023 season, 2024 season. Sorry. But he, like you mentioned, is a pretty good fit for this offense. We remember I remember back in the preseason where we're waiting. Where's the Jaden Daniels deep balls to Terry McLaurin?

It was all the screen stuff and it felt like it was OK. They're probably just trying to hide stuff from other teams. They don't want to Terry McLaurin. It was all the screen stuff. And it felt like it was, OK, they're probably just trying to hide stuff from other teams. They don't want to show everything on tape. But Jaden Daniels and McLaurin still had one of the best deep ball connections in the league. But this was still a very, very screen heavy offense. Jaden Daniels last season, 4.1 screen attempts per game, six most among quarterbacks.

Debo again, down 2024 season. I'm sure the instance where he had pneumonia didn't help. But in 2023, just based off screen passes alone, according to the stats hub, 30.8% explosive play rate, which is sixth best in the league, 16 yards after the catch per reception was easily first. And he was fifth in EPA per target off screens. Again, you wonder, is he the same explosive player?

That's fair. But they were giving a lot of these screen targets to Elamadeus Acheus, Zach Ertz. I'm pretty excited about Debo just based off the fit in the offense and the fact that we saw Jayden Danos already play how he did. We know this will be a borderline elite offense. So Debo, yes, you obviously don't trade for him

if you are rebuilding, but again, contending team could use a little bit more firepower on offense at wide receiver, somebody that could probably give you a decent floor, and there's still some upside weeks, plus I fully expect a couple carries per game from Deebo as well, so. Yep. Nice, we've got one more more and it is Travis Kelsey. I almost feel like

his value is still factoring in some risk of him retiring because he's currently tied in 21 over at Keep Trade Cut. A list of guys who are currently ahead of him, Brenton Strange, Cole Comet, Jake Ferguson, Pat Freiremuth, C Kate Otten. He's not the same guy that he was. I'm not trying to make that argument at all. And there is plenty of target competition in Kansas city. He might just be a one year by, but I think it's worth remembering that in a terrible year last year where he only scored three touchdowns, he averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game.

He was better than Mark Andrews. He was better than Sam Laporta. He was better, I think, than all of the guys whose names I just mentioned. As a contender, if I can buy Travis Kelsey at a tight end 21 cost and maybe solve my tight end position for the year that I'm chasing a championship, I'm 100% in. Especially at tight end too, right?

Like, if you're contending, age really doesn't matter because outside of the top three, four players at the position, I mean, we're hoping some of these guys get to 10 PPR points per game probably. And Kelsey showed in a down year, like you mentioned, he was over 12 with, I'm not saying Kelsey is gonna come out and have 12 touchdowns, but like laughably low touchdown production for a player of Kelsey's caliber.

So yeah, it's obviously very case specific. You have to be not only contending, but I would say probably to be one of the three best teams in the league to even trade Kelsey or trade for Kelsey. But yeah, I mean, especially a tight end with how just middling most of the position is. Kelsey at his elevated age can still be top five PPR points per game. So if my dynasty buys Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, Deandre Swift, Debo Samuel, Travis

Kelsey, remember those costs that we talk about because that's what make them buys. I don't want you to go out there and overpay for these guys. But they're cheap right now. Go get them cheap. You had to buy or two of your own, right, Adam? Yeah. I really, I think I talked about this player last time I was on this podcast actually, but it's Roma Dunze. I'm so high on him.

I don't really value, not value, but I don't really look into how he did last season because it was really bad circumstance. You look at, according to the stats hub, 27% of his targets were either go or post routes. And then Caleb Williams was like one of the worst deep ball passers in the league. He was under 28% of his deep balls he completed. So we bring in Ben Johnson, who will probably use Roma Dune's a not exclusively in the Amon Rassein Brown role.

But you look at last season on targets with a player in pretty snap motion. Amon Rassein Brown had almost 20. DJ Moore had 16. Jameson Williams had 11. And then you go all the way down to Roma Dune's who had six all year. That's going to change.

He's still going to get some vertical routes, which will be good. And Caleb Williams will probably have more time and feel more comfortable passing down the field because of the offensive line upgrades. And then you have the fact that I think it was 40-something percent of Roma Dune Day's air yards were deemed uncatchable. That was one of the highest rates in the NFL. Just everything should be better for Roma Dune Day. Caleb is still going to be...we all love Caleb the breakout.

We all love Ben Johnson. We should be getting pieces Roma doomsday. Caleb is still gonna we all love Caleb to break out We all love Ben Johnson We should be getting pieces of this entire offense and then you also have the fact that Keon Allen eight point one targets per game No longer with the team I'm all in on Rome. I know that I looked at the the values and the rankings for him on keep trade cut He is still relatively high But I am so high in the player the offense, the change in scheme for him that I'm willing to pay up for Roma Dunes. I just think he's, I think we forget too quickly because of what Ladd and Brian Thomas did,

you know, guys that were drafted after him. But I still think Roma is an awesome player. No, I agree 100%. I looked at the values. He's basically tied in value with Tet Macmillan. And you look at- Yeah, that's not close for me. Look at the rookie rankings, Tet Macmillan, currently the 103 in the

rookie rankings, projected draft order of rookie drafts, if you will. Are you giving up your 2025 103 for Roma? Did you say super flex or non super flex? This is super flex, but cam boards actually 104. Right. That's the thing. It's different quarterback class too. I'm also, I'm just naturally higher on Rome too. So I think I would. I think that the other side of that question is like, maybe you're

trading a rookie pick, but that, that math kind of doesn't work as well. You can look at it also in terms of the veterans. And there is a veteran that I've kind of doesn't work as well. You can look at it also in terms of the veterans. And there is a veteran that I've kind of talked a little bit about maybe selling if you're moving towards a rebuild. Would you deal AJ Brown for Roma Junze? Whew. That probably feels, depending on your teams and both rosters, it feels pretty even.

Right. I'd be fine making that trade whichever way you were going about it. Right. You're OK if you're a contender dealing Rome for Brown, and you're OK if you're rebuilding trading Brown. I would probably slightly lean Rome just in a vacuum. But I think it'd be a lot tougher if this was a different Philadelphia team,

which we'll talk about in a little bit with a with a second player from the Eagles. But I would lean Rome, but I'm fine with it if you're trying to contend and you have to give up Rome. I would try my absolute hardest not to. But I think it's pretty close. You also had Khalil Shakir as a buy. He's currently wide receiver 41 over a keep trade cut two spots ahead of Keon Coleman, his teammate. You strongly prefer Shakir to Coleman. Yeah, just shouldn't be that close to me.

And then there's players around him like Cortland Sutton, Jerry Judy, like I'd rather have Shakir over those guys. He has the contract extension. So you're good on that front. Josh Allen's got the reworked contract. so he's in Buffalo at least till 2030. So Khalil Shaqir, he's not your prototypical one wide receiver for a team, but he's this team's default one because they spread the ball around so much. This is Josh Allen's guy. This is who he trusts.

He was obviously pretty good floor last season. One of the best third down receivers in the league can do a lot after the catch. I just think he's going to give you like a top 30 season consistently in this offense with, you know, he's not going to ever give you a top 15 season most likely, but he I'll be shocked barring health that he slips out of the top 30 very often these next handful four or five years he's in Buffalo. Jalen Wright may have a bigger opportunity with Raheem Mostert in Las Vegas.

He's currently RB 43 over at Keep Trade Cut. What's your level of concern that a month and a half from now, Jalen Wright's the RB 3 again? Yeah, I mean, who knows with Mike McDaniel and everybody in Miami, but I think obviously the first part was most or He was starting to really lose work anyway last year, but now he's in Las Vegas. I Don't think they want to give Devon. There were some games where HM was getting like 22 23 touches. I Think they want him in that like 14 to 18 range which gives opportunity for Jalen, right? Especially with the pace this offense plays at

And I think there's upside for pass catching running backs on this offense. We saw it last year with HN Just because of the way teams have to defend this Miami offense to according to the stats hub He faced too high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL and he actually ended up checking the ball down a lot I think that's one of the huge reasons why John A Smith was as good as he was last season so if Jalen Wright's getting like seven to ten touches per game, that'll be good enough to start in some weeks as a pinch. Like I think I would like to trade for him just if people are sleeping on him,

especially that happens a lot with dynasty. People get impatient, they drafted him, he didn't do anything as a rookie, and it's like okay, he's probably done. Circumstances obviously change and have changed for him. And I also think we're talking about buys and sells. I think if you have Jalen Wright, he is one of the best holds you can have right now. So if I have Jalen Wright, I'm not moving him. If I want some more depth and running back with some upside, definitely would like to try to trade for him. There's, there's a collection of second year backs ranked in that 40 to 50 range in the in the consensus running back rankings. It's Braylon Allen, it's Jalen Wright, Isaac

Garendo, Blake Coram is right, your favorite of that group. It's Garendo pretty easily now. But it's tough because Corum I liked as a player, but I believe he was also a little bit of an older prospect. Right. And then you have the fact that he's had the injuries and the first year they clearly showed no interest in lightening Kyrie Williams workload. So I'd probably rank it, Gerendo pretty easily.

And then Jalen Wright, Blake Cormer relatively close. I'll lean Jalen Wright. I think there's better chance of standalone value for him right now. Let's take a short break, and then we'll get to our dynasty cells. All right, we are back, and we have a handful of dynasty cells for you here,

but I wanna start with a guy who I put him on my list. I asked Adam for his cells before he saw the list. He gave me the same guy. It's Tyrone Tracy currently RB 23 over at Keep Trade Cut. Now we've talked a lot on this show over the years about how if you have a day three or a UDFA running back who really pops in that rookie season, you need to be really, really careful about betting too much on that carrying over.

We saw that with Tracy, he had warts too, he had the fumble issues. I don't really still believe that he is a feature back in the NFL and RB23 with the rookies factored in, so really RB18 or 19 when you're just talking about the guys who have been in the league, seems way too high for me. Yeah, and I literally traded Tyron Tracy on Monday.

So I traded- Great, what'd you trade him for? I traded, so this is a team where I, this is the same league where I have like the entire first round. So I'm gonna draft like so many running backs anyway. And I'm still probably at best a year away from even making noise in this

league. Right. That team also has Roma do and say, by the way, so I am I'm practicing what I preach. I saw a team that can contend but needs a little bit help at running back also has Devin Singletary was still doesn't hurt. I wanted to move back up into the first round. So I again, I guess more I traded Tyrone Tracy in a mid second and got the 110. Tyrone Tracy and a mid second. So on my trade chart, that's six and a half points of value and the 110 is eight. So you absolutely crushed it. Great job on that deal.

It's always nice. Go ahead. I was just going to say, I just think like people forget Tyrone Tracy is going to be 26 in November. This will be his second NFL season. And I always go back to when you have players who are either undrafted or late running back selections and they pop as rookies. I go back to James Robinson. Like, if you didn't trade James Robinson after that, you were probably, you probably set your dynasty back. And that's not saying every,

it's not saying Tyrone Tracy is gonna be James Robinson where he has one year, then completely falls off the face of the earth. But if you are not the Eagles, the Colts, the teams of these elite running backs or elite running back rooms, you have to be concerned your team, this team is gonna draft a running back on, in April.

You just have to be. this team is going to draft a running back on in April. You just have to be the class is that good. And I think Tracy, like I think was week six where he finally took over the job. He was OK. He was like twelve point two or thirteen point five PPR points per game. His efficiency metrics weren't great, though. You look at that stretch from week five on, actually, he was outside the top 40 running backs and success rate He was out to the top 30 and EPA per rush attempt Like he was fine, but nothing special and if he's not anything special as a late rookie running back selection

The team is going to look elsewhere if they can and the Giants I believe have eight picks in the draft two in the third round So I think a lot of people will agree with the Tracy call. We both do. Still, the fact that he's valued at RB23 means you might have an opportunity to sell him to somebody. Who is he around? Just looking at those particular rankings, we've got, you know, Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Caleb Johnson, David Montgomery, Chuba Hubbard are the five backs in front of him. Chuba is not even, oh Chuba should be ahead of him, but like that's. The five backs behind him are Najee Harris, Zach Charbonneau, Brian Robinson, Trey Benson,

Kam Skadabu. Yeah, I mean, I would like Harris to be on more than a one year deal, but I would probably take most of those guys. I hope that that list of running backs from basically RB 18 through RB 28 kind of helps reflect to all of you who were listening, the current state of the running back position because there's not a lot of sure things outside of the top eight or nine. I mentioned Brian Robinson.

He was actually one of my cells and his value has been falling, but still he is RB27. I kind of view RB27 as like my mean expectation for a Brian Robinson season, but it doesn't feel like there's anything being factored in about the risk as like my mean expectation for a Brian Robinson season. But it doesn't feel like there's anything being factored in about the risk of Brian Robinson getting replaced in a month and a half. I'm not sure he's ever going to be a real difference maker on your team anyway.

And I just don't want to carry that type of risk this time of year. Heath, how many running backs have legitimately three players that will take carries from them in some capacity? Brian Robinson. Actually, no, probably James Cook too, as much as I love him. Oh, I hate that whole situation. I love James Cook, but yes.

But we also know that he's gonna be as efficient as it gets. And he's really good. So that's the big difference there. And at least Josh finally ran last season. But we always have to have the Bills tangent in some capacity when I'm here. Brian Robinson is right now, we already saw them clearly want to give Jaden Daniels inside the five

rushing attempts. Eckler will play on third downs. Debo will get not only maybe three carries per game, but if Bryan Robinson is running a route, guess who's running a route? Probably in the same area of the field. So I think his ceiling and floor are kind of low in this offense, which is weird because it was just this elite offense. They should still be really good.

And Bryan Robinson is still going to be fine. But I like this call a lot because what is the best case scenario for him in terms of production? I don't know. It's like a low end RB to I think. Right. Like if he finishes as running back 23 or 22, you're probably like, all right, fine. That's probably around what I expected. Little wins, big losses. And I just think this is a rare situation.

I'll tell you, going through this exercise comparing my rankings to consensus, you do come to realize that none of us are geniuses. We're all kind of thinking the same thing about 90% of the players. But this is a rare situation where Deandre Swift is ranked about 10 spots lower than where I would rank him. Brian Robinson's about 10 spots higher than where I would rank him.

And I would absolutely make that trade straight up. Yeah. And it looks like just about everybody else would do it the other way. Who averages more touches per game? Say the Bears don't get Gentie. Give them any other player you want in this class, but it's not Gentie. Who averages more touches per game, Robinson or Swift? Oh, that's a great.

You're setting each one at minus 110, I think. Right. I think that's a great- And Swift is what? RB 35 and Robinson's 27, I think you said? Right. And they're basically the same age. And Swift's probably going to catch more passes.

And yeah, that's a really good shout by you with the comparison between the two. I think at the end of the day, we talked about it, we led with it. So it's all about value. That was a lot of agreement. I think we may get to the point where we get some disagreement here because everybody loves Justin Herbert. He is an exceptionally talented quarterback. I'm not going to say anything bad about Justin Herbert. And people get frustrated sometimes when I cite what a guy did last year or what a guy's done the last three years. And I always try to remind them that like the most predictive thing about how many fantasy points someone's going to score next year is how many fantasy points they scored last year.

What you have to do if you want to make an argument they're going to be better or worse than that is explain the why. And I think it's worth noting that in 2022, Justin Herbert scored 19.3 fantasy points per game in CBS scoring. And he was QB 17. In 2023, Justin Herbert scored 20.9 fantasy points per game and he was QB 10. Last year, Justin got the new, the new coaching staff, Justin Herbert scores 19.1 fantasy points per game and he's QB 16.

So that's three seasons in a row of QB 10 to QB 17 production, 20 to 21 fantasy points per game, and he's currently QB seven over QB 17 production, 20 to 21 fantasy points per game. And he's currently QB seven over at keep trade cut in terms of the consensus value. I don't think he's at the point any longer. Like he's still young, but he's not at the point where at the quarterback position, especially in the landscape of dynasty quarterback rankings at 27 years old. He's not getting a discount for that anymore. There are more guys ahead of him in my rankings.

I have him at 12 that are younger than him than older than him. What's the argument for Herbert as a top seven dynasty quarterback or you just agree this is also a sell? I feel a lot better about it if DK Metcalf was playing on this team and he actually got to play in warm weather That's for sure the one thing I will say about Herbert that could be the difference You look at obviously was this run centric offense with the Chargers, which we fully expected. I Was at least a little bit curious with Greg Roman coming in if that actually utilized Herbert's legs a little bit more and they did he went up to about a 15% design rush rate.

The year past is around 11 to 12% so went up a little bit we saw that a little bit. I still at the end of the day think you're hoping it gets to like 500 pass attempts which she barely got last year I believe he was He was, again, a high-end quarterback, too. But I think we have to kind of, despite the arm talent, the amazing talent he is, and we've seen him in the past when the charges were on the opposite end of the spectrum, the most pass-heavy team in the league, we see him be a top-five quarterback in fantasy. I don't think that's the team this is going to be.

I don't think that's the volume we're gonna see from him. So I think we just have to continue to treat him as a high- end quarterback, too, despite the age, the talent, the production, the the immense upside. Just like again, it's not even just the fact that they haven't had anybody yet. They also lost Josh Palmer. So it's Quinn Johnson's lad, McConkey, and it's really nothing else. I think Herbert's should be again viewed as a high end quarterback, too.

But again, if I would feel a lot different if they had a, just a true real difference making wide receiver opposite lead. I don't know why you hate Quinton Johnson. Johnson made plays. If you go back and watch, it was literally 85%. Just, I don't know how he scored all blown coverage every single week, but he did. So shout out to him. I don't know how he scored all blown coverage every single week, but he did. So shout out to him. So and again, we got a comment in the chat about how not worried about Herbert, especially

if he gets a tight end this year. And I'm not, yeah, I'm not worried about him. Right. But he's currently being valued as QB seven. And I just don't make, he'll probably have a couple of seasons where he finishes that range, but I'm not taking Justin Herbert over Caleb Williams. I'm not sure there's gonna be a huge difference

in production between Justin Herbert and Bo Nicks, who's younger, he's a better quarterback. Drake May, Drake May's brushes were great as a rookie and they've already talked about with McDaniels that they're gonna continue to utilize that. I don't think Again, I don't want to be too you know contradictory but because the Patriots just don't have anything a wide receiver really but I

Don't see I don't I'd be I wouldn't be surprised if Herbert and Drake may stat lines in 2025 weren't too dissimilar This is this is a good question from the chat. Herbert or Kyler. Herbert's definitely the safe answer. Kyler I struggle with because he has 30 points or he has 12. There is zero in between. And a lot of those 12 point games last year were because he and Marvin Harrison just could not get on the same page on these back

shoulder throws in the end zone. I want to believe that that connection is going to be a lot better right in year two. So I will lean Kyler but it is like that is I feel like if you looked at 90% of dynasty rankings, they are back to back for everybody. Well, I have I have Kyler 10, I have Herbert 12. And I probably wouldn't like it's they're close enough to where I wouldn't be like making a one for one trade probably. But the kind of the point of this exercise is that consensus value here shows Herbert is QB seven and Kyler is QB 13. Yeah, I mean, if I'm getting Kyler plus,

for Herbert, I'm slammed. I love that deal. Yeah, it's not even a debate. And I do believe, I didn't have him on this list, but like Marvin Harrison, I have so many stats about him, about like how they utilized him. He actually was top five in tight coverage rate. And it was because they literally lined him up on the perimeter and just said, hey, go win. So I'm expecting a lot more of the scheme stuff for him.

Not that he's like, you know, Brian Thomas or some of these other rookies after the catch, but he's not somebody that can't do stuff after the catch, Arizona. Let's get him the ball, please. I had two wide receivers on my cell list. They are Brandon Iuke, who is currently valued as wide receiver 32.

And I hate to say it, you guys know how much I love Mike Evans, but Mike Evans, wide receiver 36. Why don't you love a thousand yard seasons Heath? I love a thousand yard seasons. I love 10 touchdown seasons. Mike Evans, I believe with my most drafted wide receiver last year and redraft, he's

32 now or will be by the start of the season. Father time is undefeated. Chris Godwin is back in Tampa. When those two played together last year, I was looking dumb for Mike Evans being my most draft and wide receiver in redraft. And so I think like, I am not confident at all that Mike Evans is going to be better than Devontae Adams.

In fact, currently my projections, I've got Adams projected higher than Mike Evans. I have Adams ahead of Evans too. And they're both 32 years old. And Mike Evans is currently wide receiver 36, and Adams is wide receiver 44. If I'm buying a wide receiver, I'd rather buy Adams straight up and he's cheaper.

I do not disagree. This is not very fun, but I literally did my rankings yesterday, had Adams ahead. And again, Mike Evans, we know is gonna be good, but he dealt with those hamstrings a couple times last year and it got a little scary. Obviously was on IR for a little bit. And what happens if Joe McMillan gets

a little bit more of a role. Not that he is gonna be anything more than the wide receiver three on this team, but he's proven he's very capable. And yeah, I mean, Godwin was literally a top five fantasy wide receiver before the ankle. So it felt like it was definitely still like 1A, 1B, but Godwin was the 1A.

Will it be the same with coming off the ankle? Maybe, maybe not, but just between that value of Evans. And again, like you said, 32 years old, it's not like he hasn't had, he hasn't had like major injuries, but he's gonna miss a couple games a year for sure. Right, yeah. So, and then IU, like he had the injury last year.

I don't know what point. There's not a player I don't want to trade for. Or I want to trade for less right now than I you. I just, I don't know if he's gonna be a team. I don't know if he's gonna be healthy. Somebody tried to trade him to me like the other day. And I was like, I have no interest. So somebody's trying to trade for him.

Let's say somebody thinks they're buying low on Brandon I you get a wide receiver, 32 value, what type of rookie pick would you take to move him? He currently is one spot behind Luther Burden in terms of value. That's probably 106 to one Oh eight ish in super flex. I would take any first round pick. I think yes. Like what somebody sends you 110, you're smash accept.

Yeah, because I just, it's not even just the ACL and everything, I just don't know where he's gonna play. Right. Like this, I don't know how there's still trade rumors when he got the contract last year and he's got the ACL, I just, yeah, give me any first and I'm probably hitting accept. You had Devontae Smith as a cell as well, right? Yeah, and I hate it because this time last season, he was literally one of my favorite players to draft and redraft.

And it's all because of Vic Fangio. He transformed this defense and Devontae Smith became literally a six target per game guy. And the season started where I was like I was so excited about Kellen Moore putting Smith in the slot and we saw that I remember the week one game against Green Bay He was in the slot like 60% of time was something we had not seen from him and he was he was that the floor was Way higher looked like Then the Eagles defense began the best defense in the league and from week six on Devonta Smith averaged six targets per game

From week six on the Eagles had a 54% neutral script rush rate the highest rate in the NFL I just I Don't think you have to trade him because he's still an awesome player And this is an awesome offense, but it just extended take one Barkley for two more years I don't think the offensive identity is changing anytime soon after winning the Super Bowl and yes They lost a couple pieces on defense, but they I feel like outside of maybe Milton Williams. They kept a lot of the core guys. I Just I just kind of view him as like a six to seven target per game guy, which he can still be good

But he's behind AJ Brown Barclays getting 20 plus touches every single week I think if you can move him for like who's he ranked ahead of around like I'm trying to think of players that were close with him Yeah, Devontae Smith is currently wide receiver 18 Right behind Tet Macmillan Roma Dunzey T Higgins AJ Brown T Higgins. I don't think is even close I would rather have T Higgins at a landslide. He's right ahead of Rushy Rice Jordan Addison DJ Moore Xavier worthy I would rather have DJ Moore. I would rather have Roma Dunza. I'd rather have T. Higgins.

Would you rather have Rushie Rice? I probably would. Yeah, yeah. I think just based on that there's so much more upside. And I love Devonta Smith. And like if you had me rank 10 players I wanted to draft the most last year, Smith would be on that list. But the offense changed because the defense changed. And it didn't just go from a bad defense to mediocre. It went from bad to literally the best defense on the planet. And that crushed him. There's so many games where, like, Jalen Hurts threw the ball, like, 10 times in second half.

Right. No, that's, that's, and we'll see. Like, those things don't stay that way forever Sure, so maybe the Eagles defense has a fall off This is the one I feel least confident about by the way because he's such a good player Jalen Hurts is awesome. The offense is awesome But T Higgins is like the polar opposite where he's just as talented and he's gonna get a Dolphins that throws the ball 40 times per Game my finest final dynasty cell won't surprise anyone who's listened to the show over the last couple of weeks, but I am so out on Evan Ingram.

He is currently tight end 14 over on keep trade cut. Yes, he's going to the Denver Broncos. Yes, 10 years ago, Sean Payton had a really good role for a tight end in his offense. I drafted Kobe Fleener once. He's coming off of one of the least efficient seasons ever. You look at players in NFL who have had at least 50 targets and an A-dot below six and Yak below three and a half, which he was 5.4 for his A.3.2 for his Yak per reception. It's basically just really terrible. Football players and Evan Ingram twice now in his career. He is going into his age 31 season. And this doesn't, some people it doesn't matter to at all.

I always keep track of it just because I think like, yeah, it's going to, they're going to increase their tight end target rate because they went and signed Evan Ingram. I agree with that. But over the last three seasons, 14.2% of the targets in Sean Payton's offense have gone to the tight end. That's terribly low. It's really difficult to have a system where you have a high running back target

share and a high tight end target share. Those things generally, one of them is better than the other. And we know Sean Payton's offense has always had a high running back target share and I expect that to continue again next year. I'm not sure that Evan Ingram is going to be a top 12 tight end and he's old. I'd much rather have Travis Kelsey and he's ranked seven spots higher. It really comes down to do you think he's getting top five target volume again? Because that's what he lived off last season.

He was bottom 10 among tight ends in EPA per target yards per target yards perception. Like you mentioned just unbelievably inefficient I Don't think he's gonna be fifth among tight ends and targets per game this year. So yeah, I I Think the move makes sense for the Broncos obviously, right? I don't like I don't I also don't think if he's on the board They say you know what? We don't like I don't I also don't think if he's on the board they say you know what we don't have to draft Tyler Warren because we just signed Evan Ingram like I think that's still in play for them to draft one of these guys Colston Lovell and whoever

Joff in the chat says Brenton strange over Ingram and I do agree with that one and he's currently six spots behind He's in the same role. He was and he's Probably more explosive of a player and by by probably, I mean, definitely. It would be hard to be less explosive than the guy who has averaged less than nine yards per catch in three of his last four seasons and has only scored more than four touchdowns once in an NFL career. He just does not see end zone targets ever. Ben Ingram gets a lot of targets. He is one of the worst in the NFL at turning targets into fantasy points. End point per target leagues. Maybe you do like Evan Ingram,

but go sell him along with Justin Herbert, Tyrone Tracy, Brian Robinson, Brandon Iyuk, Mike Evans, and Devontae Smith. Don't sell Adam. We're going to buy, buy, buy. Thank you for coming on here again today. Remind everybody once more where they can find your work. Always a blast, yeah. FTNFantasy.com, check it out. Again, just excited for the draft and to see these landing spots. I'll be doing a bunch of content over there.

As well as baseball, I mean, I don't do baseball, but baseball is here. I know you, we talked about this before. You and I both used to do baseball and football. Glad that's over, and I'm glad we be having an awesome team at FCN that can cover you for baseball because I just, it's been like five years now

since I've done it, I can't do it anymore. Thank you, Adam. Thank you, Thomas, for running everything. Thank you everybody who was active in the chat. I will be on vacation next week. So we will talk to you in April. Paramount Podcasts