Fantasy Football Today - 11/28: "League Winners"; Mailbag; 2019 RB Outlook; NO-DAL (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: November 28, 2018

It's a big show as we cover a wide range of topics including A.J. Green without Andy Dalton, the NE backfield with Rex Burkhead back, the Most Added list and much more ... Is "Zero-RB" still a thing? ...Find out what the guys think. And which of the recent Waiver Wire adds could be "league winners" going forward? We also preview NO-DAL as we wonder what "road Drew Brees" will look like ... Plenty of your emails and tweets and a look ahead to the RB position in 2019 ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's Wednesday of week 13, and you are not hearing Adam Hazer's voice.
Starting point is 00:00:23 I'm Jamie Eisenberg, That's Heath Cumming. And a surprise guest on a Wednesday. I think he calls it the favorite show of the week. Azer does. But I don't really like that because Dave is never here with us on Wednesdays. But he is today. Say hello, Dave. I'm filling in for the guy who claims he's sick.
Starting point is 00:00:41 He sounded awful this morning. I spoke to Adam this morning. He sounded terrible. I will I spoke to Adam this morning. He sounded terrible. I will say that I think Adam with a cold sounds better than Adam normally, so he probably sounded good. He probably sounded good. We hope Adam feels better. He is hoping to return for Thursday's show when we do our first round of starts
Starting point is 00:00:59 and sits for Week 13. We will get into the Thursday night game, which is our usual Wednesday routine. We'll get into some injuries, news, and notes. Heath has a wonderful Twitter poll, which I have not seen yet, but he will tell us all about it. And we will take a early look at the running back position for 2019. Adam said we're going to do this over the next four weeks is get into each position and sort of an outlook of what to expect for the following season. I'm sorry, Dave. What were you going to say? I was going to ask, how many times have you done this podcast sick? Oh, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:01:30 Dozens? At least. Dozens. Heath? Dozens. Adam's got a little sniffles, and now he's all of a sudden not on the show? I think we've all experienced this, and he's starting to. Children bring sickness into your house.
Starting point is 00:01:44 It's just the nature of it. Now his child is still an infant, so that's not necessarily the case. But when kids are around other kids, they get sick, they bring it home. All of you parents listening are well aware of that. That is a story for another day. Yesterday was an interesting Waiver Wire show.
Starting point is 00:02:00 I'm sorry that I missed it. I hope you guys had fun with all of the interesting names that were a part of Players to Add. The most added players as of Tuesday, and as we know, waivers run in some leagues on Wednesday night, but the most added players, can you guess who was the most added player? Dave.
Starting point is 00:02:15 The most added player was a DST. No. The Chiefs DST. I will say Harrison Butker. No. The most added player, Harrison Butker, is on the list, and there are DSTs on the list. The most added player, because he came from 0% ownership, is Justin Jackson, who went up 23% to be the number one. That adds. Carlos Hyde, number two.
Starting point is 00:02:35 I'm going to eliminate the DSTs just for argument's sake, because we don't need to talk about them in specific detail. David Moore, number three. Austin Eckler, number four. Josh Adams, number five. Adam Humphries, Gerald Everett, DJ Moore, LeGarrette Blount. Of the guys, the running backs who were available yesterday, who was your most added player that you were trying to get? Justin Jackson was largely the only one available.
Starting point is 00:03:01 There were a couple where I put in claims for Carlos Hyde, but I wasn't that excited about him. There was one where I was able to get Doug Martin, and I was pretty excited about it because I think he's going to be good this week. But I was more picking up Harrison Butker. And you Zerline too? Greg Zerline too? I did not find Greg Zerline available.
Starting point is 00:03:15 Adam already had him and stashed him in all of our leagues. How about you, Dave? I was going after DSTs. So the Chiefs DST was out there in a bunch of leagues. I was surprised to get him. They're playing Oakland this week. There's several. You have the Seahawks playing the 49ers at home. You have the Broncos playing Jeff Driscoll
Starting point is 00:03:30 on the road. I like the Colts against Jacksonville. The Colts against Jacksonville with their quarterback situation now with Cody Kessler. I think you look at Buffalo. Their defense against Miami is on the table. I believe our site for Sportsline's projections has the Packers as one of the highest
Starting point is 00:03:46 projected scoring DSTs with their matchup against the Cardinals at home. So they're among the most added. I believe they're the third most added. Just in terms of those defenses that we mentioned, the change was Packers one, Seahawks two, Chiefs three, Broncos four. And then in that same Miami Buffalo game, the Dolphins actually added more than Buffalo. They went up by 14%. So interesting to see some of the players who were added in leagues this week. What about the wide receiver position? I know Josh Reynolds was at least, you know, I know I gave you guys the notes,
Starting point is 00:04:16 but Josh Reynolds is 64%, not exactly the biggest change. Was there any of the receivers that you guys were looking to pick up? Humphreys. Adam Humphreys. Adam Humphreys. What was his percentage? His percentage changed. Because I like the matchup form this week,
Starting point is 00:04:29 and if Deshaun Jackson's not there, that's one less mouth to feed. He was, and you're referencing the matchup, he went 8 for 82 in two touchdowns the last time he faced Carolina just about three weeks ago, or four weeks ago, excuse me. David Moore was actually the most added wide receiver. He went up by 11%. Because he scored last week. And Humphreys went up 8% from 24% to 32%.
Starting point is 00:04:48 Were there any wide receivers you were looking at? It was mostly Humphreys is who I was trying to get. I do think there's a pretty good debate going on right now as to whether David Moore or Adam Humphreys is the better add. Not at CBS, but outside of CBS. I saw on Twitter quite a bit of discussion about that. And Moore facing. I know Adam likes to bring up the stat that a wide receiver scored against the 49ers every game of the season. He easily could fall in line with that. And more facing, I know Adam likes to bring up the stat that a wide receiver scored against the 49ers every game this season. He easily could fall in line with that. And one thing that I wrote about David Moore, I don't know if you guys mentioned this, if Doug Baldwin does
Starting point is 00:05:12 suffer some sort of setback again, he becomes very relevant along the lines of Humphreys because of the Deshaun Jackson injury. So most added list is something that we tend to look at a lot. And you know, roster trends, if you are looking to look at that list, you can find it at CBSSports.com and find the roster trends list there. Some injuries, news, and notes to get to. Lamar Jackson is expected to start for Baltimore. I'm sure we're all excited about that. Where do you guys have Lamar Jackson ranked this week?
Starting point is 00:05:37 He's just outside of my top 12. I'm warming up to him. When this week started, he was like 17th for me, where I liked him, but I didn't love him. But now I'm starting to percolate. I still like Marcus Mariota better. I know, Keith, just because we spoke on Monday for our programming for Fancy Football today. I think you said there are 18 quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:05:53 that you like this week. I'm assuming he's one of those 18. Is he in the top 12 for you? He didn't make the top 12 in six-point-per-pass touchdown leagues, but I do have a way on my spreadsheet where I can sort it by four points-per-pass touchdown. He's number 16 for me in six points per pass touchdown. He's number seven in four points per pass. So nobody has a bigger difference in their ranking than him.
Starting point is 00:06:11 And a great matchup against Atlanta. We've certainly seen quarterbacks have a lot of success against that defense. Traquan Smith was limited in practice. We'll find out what his availability is for Thursday's game against Dallas. We're going to preview that game in a little bit. We'll talk more about him during that preview. Kiki QT is expected to play, at least according to Coach Bill O'Brien, dealt with a hamstring injury on Monday night against the Titans.
Starting point is 00:06:34 Any interest in QT after what we saw from him not necessarily performing up to the expectations that we had for him in the game against Tennessee, mostly because of the injury? What we didn't see from QT? I'm going to keep him on my bench if I can help it. Yeah, I didn't really want to start him last week. The whole Texans passing game, throwing 24 passes a week, maybe DeAndre Hopkins just keeps getting six targets,
Starting point is 00:06:57 and then there's room for Thomas or QT to be good. But I've got a feeling they're going to go back to Hopkins a little bit more. If he gets 10 targets, there's only 15 targets left for the whole team to divvy up. Do you think this will be a game where they can get away with that, though, against Cleveland? I think the Browns can put some points on them and might force them to throw a little bit more. They might, but, I mean, the Browns have had a lot of great matchups of late, and they haven't scored a lot of points in those games. And so this is a much tougher matchup for them, and this is Baker going on the road.
Starting point is 00:07:21 So I don't necessarily love the Browns' offense this week, which, in turn, you have to worry a little bit about Deshaun Watson. I think one thing that I was curious to see, which happened, I think Deshaun Watson is one of these guys that the lights on him, he plays a little bit better. You mean the primetime? Primetime lights. The Dolphins game Thursday night,
Starting point is 00:07:40 almost similar pass attempts, gets four touchdowns. Similar pass attempts. You said at 24, he's been under 25 now for six games in a row, or seven games in a row now, I think. Big game on Monday night. So I think he's just one of those primetime players. Not that he's going to be bad against the Browns, but I don't know if he has the ceiling that we've seen from him in those games.
Starting point is 00:07:59 Along those lines, and this is about Deshaun, not about the passing game, do you think what he did as a runner on Monday night will inspire the coaches to let him keep doing that? Do you think he can continue to run? I think they're just going to let him play. Yes. I don't think it's a don't run. So no more restrictions, no more worrying about the chest injury. I agree.
Starting point is 00:08:19 I was thinking about this because I'll probably have to do this for one of our segments on CBS Sports HQ. We're starting to get to the point of ranking the MVP candidates. I think there are two guys that have clearly separated themselves a little bit in Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. Then there's a second tier of MVP candidates. I think Watson's in that group. It's Rivers, Russell Wilson,
Starting point is 00:08:38 Jared Goff. You've got to put Andrew Luck in there. Andrew Luck, I'm sorry. Sean Watson. Todd Gurley still, just based on his early season. Maybe Roethlisberger's worked his way into that also, but losing that last game against Denver is going to put a little bit of a damper on that. But there's that second tier, in some cases maybe a third tier, and I think Watson, just based on they've won eight games in a row,
Starting point is 00:08:58 it's hard to overlook that he's a big reason why. That's a tough assignment for you. I don't think there's a slam-dunk MVP this year. I think it's Breeze unless they lose. I think Breeze is the frontrunner. But yes, if they lose, Mahomes was the frontrunner at the start of the Saints stretch. But those two guys, I think, are going to
Starting point is 00:09:15 jockey back and forth to see who is the guy. Most likely it will be Breeze because you give him the ceremonial. He's never won one before. And that's not fantasy MVP. No, this is the NFL MVP. Fantasy MVP would be a different conversation. Yes. Another that's not fantasy MVP you're talking about. No, this is the NFL MVP. Fantasy MVP would be a different conversation. Another note regarding the Texans is Deontay Foreman not all the way back yet. At this point,
Starting point is 00:09:31 is it a pipe dream to expect him to help your fantasy roster? Yes, and it's hurting him that Lamar Miller's playing so well. Awesome. He's had one bad game in his last five. It was against Denver, and that was at the point where Denver's run defense had turned the corner. We're waiting to find out. Upd happen Wednesday uh AJ Green carry on Johnson some of the guys coming back from injury we already know a lot of the guys that were placed on injury
Starting point is 00:09:51 reserve any optimism for AJ Green now that we know Andy Dalton is out none I don't know why they'd play him and I think he's going to fight to want to play and I think the Bengals are going to fight to keep him from playing if he plays well they're very much in playoff contention. Technically. I mean, they are. They've got Jeff Driscoll and they're 5-6. Right. So if he's ready to go this week, he'll play. Of course. But if they're
Starting point is 00:10:16 5-7 or 5-8 by the time he comes back, then it's a completely different situation. As we sit here on the Wednesday of Week 16, the morning of Wednesday of Week 16, they are still in playoff contention. They are, yes. And so if he could play, I'm sure he's going to want to play.
Starting point is 00:10:32 Number two receiver if he plays. If he continues. Just keep in mind, in the 2014 season, Andy Dalton broke his thumb in Week 14 against Pittsburgh. It was McCarron, right? It was AJ McCarron. In those four games, he scored three touchdowns. So it's not like he's necessarily – I always love this argument.
Starting point is 00:10:49 Quarterback make the receiver or receiver make the quarterback? Is Andy Dalton great? No. Is A.J. Green great? Yes. Is he going to help Jeff Driscoll? Probably so. And we just saw Driscoll find two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:10:57 What's your scouting report on Driscoll? I know you've watched him closely. I mean, he stinks. But, you know, he's a backup for a reason. So he'll move around a little bit. He can run. Yeah. And we'll see how he does, you know, with a full look. You put any quarterback with AJ Green, Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and a competent offensive line. They should be good. Dalton goes from being average to good. I think Driscoll goes from being terrible to average. And so he'll support his receivers.
Starting point is 00:11:23 They'll be thrown a lot. The defense thinks. So we'll see. We'll also find out about Kerryon Johnson. You guys like LeGarrette Blount this week? Love LeGarrette Blount? Love Theoretic? Non-PPR flex if Kerryon doesn't play. I think he's a top 32-ish running back. I'm not going to have much interest in PPR because he's not going to catch a pass.
Starting point is 00:11:39 The floor is zero. He did catch one. And you can make the narrative, well, if LeGarrette Blount can score two touchdowns on the Bears, just imagine what he can do against the Rams. But I don't want to trust him if I don't have to. And buys are out the window now, so you shouldn't have to trust LeGarrette Blount. He's a good pick-up, a good plug-and-play off the waiver wire if you lost Gordon, Fournette, Marlon Mack. Carry-on Johnson.
Starting point is 00:12:02 Carry-on Johnson. Like a non-PPR, I like him more than most of the replacements for those guys. I will say this. The setup for him on Thanksgiving could not have been any better against a tired Bears defense that played Sunday night, having to travel and play Thursday morning, and they were rested staying at home. Plus, he had fresh legs.
Starting point is 00:12:21 So everything kind of set up for him to have that good game. And now he's had a little bit of extra time. and he's facing a defense coming off of a bye. So they're going to be well rested. So different change of scenario for what they're dealing with. All right, Heath, tell us about your Twitter poll. All right. There are actually three polls. We'll go real quick on these.
Starting point is 00:12:37 Season on the line for all three. Who are you starting? Six points per pass touchdown. Mariota against the Jets. Lamar Jackson at the Falcons, Tom Brady against the Vikings. I guess we'll do what Adam always does. Who would you pick, and then who do you think won?
Starting point is 00:12:52 I'm going to pick Lamar Jackson. Okay. I'm going to say Brady won. Okay. I'm going to pick Mariota and say Brady won. Okay. Well, Lamar won, and I would pick Mariota as well. So I think for me, the big thing was Brady's last for me.
Starting point is 00:13:10 Brady was second in the polling, just barely behind Lamar Jackson. Mariota was a distant third. Nobody's buying into his recent three-game stretch, apparently. I like Mariota a lot this week, but I also worry about not necessarily having to throw, and they just sit on their run game. Right. That's my concern. I'm sure they want to get it going, but I don't think it's very good right now.
Starting point is 00:13:30 It's terrible. But this is a week to get it going. Okay, non-PPR, which running back are you starting? Gus Edwards at Atlanta, Josh Adams against Washington, or Joe Mixon against the Broncos? Joe Mixon's last. I'm going to say Mixon won. I like Josh Adams the best. Okay.
Starting point is 00:13:50 I'm going to say Mixon won, and I think I have Mixon one spot higher than Gus Buss. I have Gus ranked the highest, Adams second, and Mixon third. Gus won the poll. Mixon came in second. Adams a distant third against Washington. And look, I like Gus Edwards a lot this week. He's a start for me in stardom.
Starting point is 00:14:08 I'm ranked in top 15. I just wonder if Atlanta is playing with the lead. Right. The question is, that game flow is really tricky in that game. Because I agree, Atlanta could get out to a two-score lead, but I also think there's a chance that Baltimore's defense could shut them down a little bit. Totally. But I just wonder if they're behind. Does he have the same success? think there's a chance that Baltimore's defense could shut him down a little bit. Totally. I don't think it's going to be two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:14:25 I just wonder if they're behind. Does he have the same success? Now, Baltimore's going to try and dictate pace in this game, so you figure he's fine. You're starting him without question. I just love Adam's setup at home against Washington. I think Washington's done, and I think Philadelphia's going to win that game easily. All three of those backs are top 15. And then the last one...
Starting point is 00:14:41 The last one, in PPR. Which wide receiver do you want to start? DJ Moore at Tampa Bay, Corey Davis against the Jets, or T.Y. Hilton at Jacksonville? I'm going to take Davis, and I think DJ Moore won. Okay. I have DJ Moore ranked the highest, and I'll say DJ Moore won. I have DJ Moore ranked the highest.
Starting point is 00:15:09 T.Y. Hilton won over both of those guys. T.Y. Hilton's actually right in the middle for me. I go Moore, Hilton, Davis, but they're all top 20 guys. He was terrible against Jacksonville last time these two teams met. Just keep that in mind. No, I think there's some risk with T.Y. Hilton. There is. Of course, he could also score 12 points on one play. It's over.
Starting point is 00:15:23 And Jacksonville, as our colleague Pete Prisco Drink, likes to say. A lot of busts in that Jacksonville secondary of late. All right. So Adam has in the notes here, can these guys be league winners? And don't tell Adam, but I'm actually reading the notes, maybe for the first time this year. So can these guys be league winners? Baker Mayfield.
Starting point is 00:15:40 So we know he's been good in the positive matchups. He's taken on Kansas City, Atlanta, Cincinnati. It's been very favorable for him over there. Tampa Bay, he's had a lot of success with the new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. Things have started to click for him at the right time. But now at Houston, Carolina, at Denver, Cincinnati again, and then out Baltimore in week 17.
Starting point is 00:16:03 So let's start with just this week alone. Can you trust Baker Mayfield if the season's on the line? And I know he wasn't part of that trio of quarterbacks that you mentioned, Brady, Lamar, Jackson, and Marcus Mariota. But where does Baker Mayfield stack up with that? Are you starting Mayfield over Tom Brady? I have Mayfield one spot behind Tom Brady. So I've got him, I think, actually 19th this week.
Starting point is 00:16:26 And I don't think you can trust him now. As far as Adam's question goes, he could be a league winner if he sits on your bench until week 16 and then you start him against the Bengals. And you could win you a championship. And even against Carolina, too. I mean, it's not exactly a perfect matchup. But like Dave said, we are past the bye weeks. So why force him into your lineup in a one-quarterback league?
Starting point is 00:16:43 But again, we've seen it. Brady's got a tough matchup this week. We see quarterbacks that have tough matchups. He has some good, some bad. Can Baker Mayfield be someone you rely on? I like him this week in daily GPPs. I think he won't be very popular. And I think he's been playing really well. I think his offensive line has done a really nice job protecting him. And I think they're going to have to put up some points and I think it'll be harder than usual for Nick Chubb to run the ball like he has.
Starting point is 00:17:13 This is a difficult matchup like you said, James. I don't think he's a league winner, but I do think that if you're really in a bind in Week 16, you can pick him up and play him against Cincinnati. Not someone you have to hold, though, for this week's matchup against Houston. Like Dave said, more of a daily play. Although I will say this, we've seen quarterbacks have good games against the Texans. It's not like their defense is completely locked down.
Starting point is 00:17:35 Mariota being a good example of that. We thought he'd struggle a little bit coming back from the injury. He had 26 fantasy points. Lamar Jackson, can he be a league winner for you? Again, very good fantasy game against Oakland. Okay against Cincinnati. Seems to be building towards something, but you have to build in the risk of does Joe Flacco get the job back?
Starting point is 00:17:53 Can Lamar Jackson win you a fantasy league? The more Lamar Jackson wins, the more Joe Flacco fades away into obscurity and ends up being on somebody else's team in 2019 as a stopgap quarterback. I think he's got a much better chance to be a league winner for you than Baker Mayfield does. I love his schedule. The matchup against Atlanta is good. Then he's at Kansas City. That's a game where the Ravens are going to have to put points on the board
Starting point is 00:18:16 to stay competitive. Then they're home against Tampa Bay. That'll probably end up being a get-right-must-win type of game for their playoff chances. Then at the Chargers in Week 16 could be tough, but by then we'll have a very strong sample size of what Lamar Jackson can deliver, and it'll probably be in the positive.
Starting point is 00:18:32 And I think he absolutely can be that guy that can help you out. 100%, Lamar Jackson could be a league winner. It's easier for him to be a league winner and four-point-per-pass touchdown leagues. But I think, like, I have him ranked outside my top 12, and I don't like it at all because I do think that this, especially in Atlanta on this track, he could just have a monster game.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Yeah, totally agree. You're almost rooting for the Falcons' offense to show up because that will force him to be a little bit more of a freewheeling type of player and maybe we get to see the full skills on display. Is it harder to envision him laying an egg against Atlanta than having a good game against Atlanta? Yes. That's what I think, too.
Starting point is 00:19:07 Because the Falcons' defense has been so bad. Now, the one thing is, does he get too turnover prone if he has to throw a lot? And we did see the two interceptions against the Raiders when he didn't have to throw a lot. And so that's something I think to keep in mind. Plus, this is his first road start. Not that the Falcons have this great home field advantage in the situation that they're in because they're losing. You have to wonder how excited the home crowd will be to make things that difficult
Starting point is 00:19:30 on them. But I agree. If he grew up a Michael Vick fan, this has got to be something he's really excited about. So hopefully he comes through with a big performance. Gus Edwards, I think it's easy to say he'll be a league winner. We could skip him. Josh Adams, same thing. League winner. I think Gus will be more of a league helper than a league winner.
Starting point is 00:19:45 He'll get you some good numbers, but I don't think he can take over a fantasy week. I think he might give you 100 and a touchdown each of the next three weeks. He might. I think for sure he's a league winner. I think you're going to start him. Let's put it that way. If he's the guy replacing Melvin Gordon for you, he's for me in a couple leagues, I'm thrilled about it. Just because, again, you know the workload should be there.
Starting point is 00:20:05 We will see at some point Alex Collins be active. We may not see Alex Collins play, but that's a wrinkle still to keep in mind. And then, again, if they are chasing points, is that going to hurt him against Atlanta? That's kind of where I'm coming from. Because definitely against Kansas City, they're going to chase points. How much will Gus play? Right. Will he be involved in the passing game?
Starting point is 00:20:21 That's something we have yet to see. Can DJ Moore be a league winner for you? He's been good in three now of the last five games. Last week though, no Devin Funchess. Few of those without Torrey Smith. If everybody's healthy, can you rely on DJ Moore? I don't know for sure,
Starting point is 00:20:35 but I can't imagine after what DJ Moore has shown the last two weeks, you're going to waste seven or eight targets a game on Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith. Throw the ball to DJ Moore and with his schedule, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New Orleans, Atlanta, that absolutely gives him the opportunity to be a league winner. As long as Cam gives him eight or nine targets a week, I think he's going to be a league winner.
Starting point is 00:20:55 Absolutely. Number two type of receiver. Torrey Smith still isn't healthy, and he was active. Funchess, who knows where he's at with his injury. I just think the door's already been kicked down for DJ Moore. Yeah, I think Torrey Smith, again, we talked about this on Monday. Not somebody for fantasy. Very good for his team because he takes one player out of the way,
Starting point is 00:21:14 in some cases two, because of the routes that he runs, and that opens things up underneath, and I think that's something in Philadelphia. That should help DJ Moore, right? 100%. The only thing that it takes away is when everybody's there, somebody's off the field, whether it's Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore or Funchess, they don't have the ability to put everybody on the field at the same time.
Starting point is 00:21:31 And I think that's something that's missing in Philadelphia, somebody to take the defense out of the way, and there's no speed. Alshon's not fast. Golden Tate's not a burner down the field. I think that's what they were counting on with Golden Tate. They made a bad trade. You know who they miss? Mike Wallace. Mike Wallace, exactly. that's what they were counting on with Golden Tate. They made a bad trade. You know who they missed? Mike Wallace.
Starting point is 00:21:46 Mike Wallace, exactly. That's what they were hoping for. The key to the Eagles' offense. Heath, you said this on Monday. We were talking about should we or should we not rank Sammy Watkins. And you said you wonder if he re-aggravated the foot to it's a serious problem and we may not see him for a few weeks. If that's the case, can Chris Conley be a league winner for you?
Starting point is 00:22:05 I don't know. Maybe a league winner in the sense that he scores that random touchdown for you that puts you over the top. I don't think he's going to be a league winner in the sense that you definitely want to start him every week. But he could be somebody that you have to plug him in at the flex, and he happens to score one of the five touchdowns that Patrick Mahomes throws that week.
Starting point is 00:22:22 So I can remember a year when Devin Aroma showed you one championship with two touchdowns in Week 16. He could be that type of league winner, but not one that you're actually counting on. If Sammy Watkins is out this week, how much do you like Chris Conley? I've got to move him up in my rankings. I like him a lot. I think there's a good opportunity for him to get a lot of volume
Starting point is 00:22:41 against Oakland and hopefully come down with a touchdown. I don't know about two, but one. He had eight targets last time he played. That was a crazy game against the Rams. Exactly. That was a track meet, but I'll take half of what he did last week. There's trust building there. There's now confidence that he can deliver if, in fact,
Starting point is 00:22:58 having to be relied on and you see it. I was struggling because there were so many guys this week. Josh Reynolds was the easy one to say. He's the number one receiver to pick up and he was clearly right at the cusp of the number we talked about, 64%. We usually go 65%. I struggled with not putting Conley at two as much as I like Adam Humphreys because if in fact, like you said, he's getting one of the five touchdown passes from Holmes, that puts him in a much better situation than Humphreys even with what he's been doing all week. Yeah, but Humphreys would get one of the two or three touchdowns from Jameis, theoretically.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Would you rather have a receiver for Patrick Mahomes or a receiver for Jameis Winston? In a vacuum, I'd rather have the receiver from Patrick Mahomes. But I'm going to rank Humphreys ahead of Conley this week, so if I have to pick between those two, I'll go with Humphreys. But Jarvis Landry or Chris Conley? Oh, Conley. Allen Robinson or Chris Conley? Conley.
Starting point is 00:23:48 So there's a lot of receivers that we've been rolling with for a long time who have been disappointing us that we just can't have faith in anymore, and that's where Humphreys, Reynolds, and Conley have served for me on this list. I'm treating Conley as Sammy Watkins. Same thing for me. He doesn't have the same ceiling. I might rank him higher than Alshon. Agreed. I just basically said, okay, you're Sammy Watkins. Same thing for me. I might rank him higher than Alshon. Agreed.
Starting point is 00:24:06 I just basically said, okay, you're Sammy Watkins because that's what you did the last game and that's what your capability is. He doesn't have the same ceiling as what Watkins can get to, but he may have the same floor. Again, we'll talk about Traquan Smith in a minute. Cameron Brait, can he be a league winner for you? We know OJ Howard
Starting point is 00:24:21 not coming back. Did Sean Jackson. We'll find out what his status is. Maybe more opportunities for him to produce at a high level i mean he's a tight end that could score a touchdown for you i was a little disappointed actually that he got four targets in that first game with jamis and no aj oj howard there hopefully he gets more this week in a fantastic matchup against carolina but you look at his schedule after that he's got new orleans and then baltimore those are not exactly good match at his schedule after that, he's got New Orleans and then Baltimore. Those are not exactly good matchups for tight ends. And if he's getting four targets a week, it's just like the other 73 tight ends.
Starting point is 00:24:52 You hope he scores a touchdown. Baltimore is starting to crack a little bit against tight ends. Keep an eye on that. If Tony Jefferson gets healthy, that will probably help the Ravens out. But Bray has caught more touchdowns from Jameis than anybody else in this Tampa Bay offense over the last two years. This year already. And last year he was tied with O.J. Howard with five.
Starting point is 00:25:10 So I buy into that. And we've been saying this now, Jameis, for four years about Jameis, about how he leans on that tight end and how he thinks that that's just a big part of the offense. And he did it again on Sunday. And I'm going to keep writing it. If I'm streaming tight ends, and I have Cameron Brait, I'm not streaming tight ends anymore.
Starting point is 00:25:28 I think, you know, I'll go back to one thing at the NFL owners meeting. I spoke to a friend of mine I went to college with. He's a Bucks beat writer for the athletic Greg Allman, and I said, why in the world did they bring back Cameron Brait? And he said red zone. They love him in the red zone, and we haven't seen it when Howard was healthy
Starting point is 00:25:44 because Howard was playing at such a high level and was having that breakout season. Adam called that. He thought that Howard would have a great year. But now, great. First game that we see without Howard there, he scores a touchdown. So yes, Heath, you're right. He is touchdown or bust. But there's a pretty good sample size. He scored once every two games in 2016 before Howard was part of this roster. He has a chance I think to be very successful to close the season as we move on here. All right, let's go to a quick round of emails and tweets.
Starting point is 00:26:09 We'll start with some emails. This is from Louis. He says, I know you have heard this sort of thing a million times, but I need to vent to someone because my family could care less. This is a terrible email, Adam. It's about Monday night's game against the Texans. All right, we'll read it. I'm ahead Monday night by less than two points. My opponent has the Texans' defense. All I need is for the email, Adam. It's about Monday night's game against the Texans. All right, we'll read it. I'm ahead Monday night by less than two points.
Starting point is 00:26:26 My opponent has the Texans' defense. All I need is for the game to end. And then with 19 seconds left, the Titans receiver fumbled the ball. Texans recover. My opponent gets two points, and I lose by less than a single point. And I'm out of the playoffs. I was yelling at the TV in front of my wife. I will forever hate the player who fumbled.
Starting point is 00:26:42 What's the worst loss that you've ever had that knocked you out of the playoffs? And is there a player you will forever hate because of it? I know mine for sure. Any of you have one? I would say the worst. I don't remember the player, but I lost on a – the other team was attempting a game-winning field goal, and I think it was the Steelers blocked the game-winning field goal
Starting point is 00:27:02 and then ran the blocked kick back for a touchdown. And that was a Monday night game. And I lost and got knocked out because of that game. I think I was knocked out of the playoffs by Tim Hasselbeck, who I started because of a matchup a zillion years ago, back when Tim was playing. I started him over someone else. I don't know, like Kerry Collins or something. Just a bad line of decision and it cost me and Hasselbeck was bad I have uh I've told the story before it was a playoff game first round of playoffs we never determined what the playoff tiebreaker was and uh it came down to we were tied not only our
Starting point is 00:27:42 regular our starting roster our benches were tied. Except there was one player left. And we determined it's got to be benches because we never figured it out. So we just let the benches be the tiebreaker. Andre Ellington. Andre Ellington was playing the Cardinals versus the Redskins, I believe, ironically enough. And all he needed to do was get one fantasy point and I win. He fumbles on his first carry and he's benched the rest of the game.
Starting point is 00:28:06 And you lose. To our old colleague David Gano. A good reminder for commissioners out there to set your playoff tiebreakers. Let the league know about it. And if you don't have one, you can go with bench points. I like to go with the higher seed. 100% like to go with the higher seed. That's the one edge that they have.
Starting point is 00:28:22 Yes. Fair enough. Mike from a town east of the Mississippi. Let's go with Canton, Ohio. Canton, Ohio. Have to win this week. Best upside streamer at defense. The Titans versus the Jets or the Chiefs versus the Raiders. Those are my top two DSTs this week.
Starting point is 00:28:43 Ooh. I'm going to go with the Chiefs against Oakland. Man, I actually think that the Titans might be better, but when he puts in that upside, I do think the Chiefs have more upside than the Titans, so I'll go with the Chiefs. The Chiefs are better, too, slightly ahead of the Titans. Titans defense, I wouldn't be surprised.
Starting point is 00:29:02 We saw the Jets score against the Patriots. Josh McCown, he can find his way to a couple touchdowns or maybe Crowell or Elijah McGuire. I just think the Titans secondary is just so leaky that something can give there where the Chiefs, I know they've had some busts, but the Raiders are just so bad offensively. From Matt, big fan of the show.
Starting point is 00:29:20 Need to win this week to get in the playoffs. I have Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette. It's a PPR pick two. Theo Riddick, Carlos Hyde, Doug Baldwin. So Riddick's the easy one, right? Yep. Hyde or Baldwin. I think I have Baldwin over Hyde in PPR.
Starting point is 00:29:36 Absolutely Baldwin over Hyde in PPR. Jonathan wants to know, Dear Tommy, Johnny, Lisa, and Mark. Tommy, Johnny, Lisa, and Mark. Tommy, Johnny, Lisa, and Mark? Nope. No idea. No idea. John, let's know.
Starting point is 00:29:51 Lasordas. Top-tier running backs seem to have way more points than the top-tier wide receivers. Is that my imagination? Are the days of zero running back drafting dead? And that will lead us into our next topic. No, that's not. No. My best teams were zero running
Starting point is 00:30:06 back teams. What type of formats were they? Because I still think it's a mistake to go zero RB if it's 12 teams non-PPR. I think we only have one of those leagues now. Like all of our leagues are some form of PPR. Well, I think
Starting point is 00:30:21 that helps zero RB. And the smaller the league, the easier you could get away with it. All right, so Jonathan brings up an interesting question that Adam wanted to get into today about running backs for next season. And I think it's pretty clear the running backs have outscored the top-tier wide receivers based on where those guys are. Because Beckham's had a good year, not necessarily a great year. Antonio Brown has obviously fallen back a little bit.
Starting point is 00:30:43 A.J. Green's battled injuries. Hopkins has been good at times for the most part, but not necessarily the same heights that we saw, whereas you're getting these running backs who have just been off the charts. Ezekiel Elliott's been good. Todd Gurley's
Starting point is 00:30:58 been good. Barkley. Barkley's been very good. It's probably close, especially in PPR, but I still think you're looking at the running backs. They feel a little bit safer based on how they performed. Obviously, Le'Veon Bell being what it is. Where do you feel like the state of the position is going into 2019?
Starting point is 00:31:16 Are we going to see another first round of running back heavy, or will the receivers start to creep back in? Let's just assume Le'Veon signs with the team that is fantasy relevant to help him. Say the Colts. He could sign almost anywhere, and people are going to still want him. He's not going to be a first-round guy with the Jets or the Raiders. Maybe with the Colts he could. He could be still.
Starting point is 00:31:40 It could be back of the first round, but he could be in that. Well, that's where I think that's the perfect. He's going to be close to that line. And there was a line this year, I thought, too. I still think the first six or seven picks are probably going to be running backs. Okay, so just off the top of your head. You think about it. You tell me off the top of your head who you think they'll be.
Starting point is 00:31:57 Because we could talk it out. Gurley, Barkley. Gurley, Barkley. Are we going PPR? Half. Alvin Kamara's going to be there. Melvin's going to be there. Okay, so let's assume Mark Ingram walks. Yes. Okay,vin Kamara is going to be there. Melvin is going to be there. Okay, so let's assume Mark Ingram walks.
Starting point is 00:32:07 Yes. Okay, so Kamara. Zeke. Hunt. Hunt. Christian McCaffrey has got to be in here. McCaffrey. In full PPR, he'll be before any receiver.
Starting point is 00:32:15 In non-PPR, he'll probably still be before a receiver. Mixon. I won't take Joe Mixon before the elite receivers, no. Okay. But people will probably. Okay. And that's what we had. We had 11 running backs sometimes going before receivers went.
Starting point is 00:32:29 Did you name seven running backs? Yes. I think there's seven. And the seven for you are? In some order. Gurley, Barkley, Hunt, Zeke, McCaffrey, Kamara, Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon. Okay.
Starting point is 00:32:44 And I don't think there's going to be a rookie from this year's class that puts themselves in the Barkley conversation. I don't think there's a rookie that's headed into the top five. There's another one we might want to consider. Chubb. But I don't know if he's – Chubb, sure. Would he be eighth overall? Would you take him?
Starting point is 00:32:58 How does he – How do the next four weeks go? I think if you're putting Chubb there, you've got to put Mix in there. Because they're in similar situations of very talented guys that could be running back heavy. I have another name. David Johnson. There's going to be a change in Arizona that's going to help him. If he comes through the season without any injuries,
Starting point is 00:33:15 then that big bounce back year that we thought would be this year could really be in line next year. And I think I'd take him out of Chubb. Aaron Jones. That's another one. Aaron Jones, I think, is pegged for round two. Yes. I don't think it's the first round. I think it's going to be a similar situation, whereas I didn't
Starting point is 00:33:32 have any zero running back teams where I had a pick in the first five picks. But I had a lot of teams, because Jamie always puts me at the end of the draft. Not anymore. Two years ago, yes. Not anymore. I had a lot of teams where I picked eighth through twelfth, and that was the area where Leonard Fournette, Alvin Cook, those guys were going. And there were a couple of good running backs as well.
Starting point is 00:33:49 But that's where I generally started. Julio and Brown or Julio and Hopkins or Julio and Beckham. That's the range where I think you'll find Chubb, Mixon, maybe David Johnson, maybe James Conner. I think they'll be there. Conner too, yeah. And I think that's a beautiful place to be. Imagine getting two of those guys. Oh, I'm probably going to take two receivers again.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Yeah, I think what we saw at the back end was a lot of people taking one and one. That was where Dalvin Cook came into play. McCaffrey came into play. I don't know. Fournette, I guess. Maybe Melvin Gorin if he slipped. So that's, I think, where we started to see the combo. I don't know if a lot of people went full to where you went, Heath,
Starting point is 00:34:27 of taking two wide receivers. I guess I shouldn't say that. There were plenty of people that did that. But you were able to take mix and match. So it kind of feels as if 2019, at least as of now, will kind of mirror 2018 a little bit. Yes, absolutely. There's no reason to think otherwise as long as everybody stays healthy.
Starting point is 00:34:45 So we mentioned a couple of names which I think have the chance to build off what they've shown in small sample sizes, but who could break out next year of the guys that we've seen? I think Nick Chubb will say is going to break out based on the small sample size we have right now if he, you know, I guess he started enough games so maybe he doesn't
Starting point is 00:35:02 fall into that breakout category. Aaron Jones, probably the same thing. Is it guys like Gus Edwards and Josh Adams? I think two of them, and I don't know if they count or not, but rookies this year that have missed time or had to share too much, Carrion and Sonny Michel. And I'll give you a third one. I would say Carrion.
Starting point is 00:35:21 I would say those guys have already broken out. Right. They won't be first-round guys. Yes, that's a good call. Geis could be one of those guys. What about Phillip Lindsey? Could he end up? I think he's already broken out.
Starting point is 00:35:32 No. Okay, I think I'm talking about a different conversation. Because I'm talking about running backs who are in that round two, maybe a little bit in a round three that you'll target. I think Sony could be in that mix very easily. I think he could finish this year strong. I think Carrion can be that guy once they get LeGarrette out of there. Those guys have already shown you enough that you know what they are. So you're talking about running backs that we're going to take maybe round four plus.
Starting point is 00:36:01 I'm talking about next year's Aaron Jones. Rashad Penny. Rashad Penny about next year's Aaron Jones. Next year's Rashad Penny. Rashad Penny is a great one, yes, if they move on from them. Maybe Ronald Jones is another one that could have some breakout ability. I don't know if Marlon Mack qualifies, but he's, you know, I guess. Does Jarek McKinnon qualify? One who I like, and I know I'm probably going to fall on this sword again, is Elijah McGuire.
Starting point is 00:36:27 I think there's a lot to like about him if that offense gets better, that he could be somebody that could take that next step and be successful. As long as Le'Veon doesn't take his job. As long as Le'Veon doesn't take his job. Where do you put Jarek McKinnon next year? Hopefully he's healthy. The thing that will be interesting is, does Jarek McKinnon or Matt Breida get drafted first next year?
Starting point is 00:36:46 Probably depends on practice reports and what they say. They'll end up being a two-headed monster. It'll be the Freeman-Coleman situation. Yeah. Then there are some interesting ones there because Coleman is expected to be a free agent. You have TJ Yeldon, expected to be a free agent. Those two guys can sort of sway some backfields where they end up going.
Starting point is 00:37:08 Obviously, Le'Veon will change the landscape of at least one backfield. Mark Ingram will change the landscape of potentially one backfield if the Saints don't bring him back. Do the Jaguars move on from Leonard Fournette? No way. They have him under control for two years at that price. But if he's such a pain in the butt, do you think Tom Coughlin keeps him around? 100%.
Starting point is 00:37:23 There is no chance he's gone unless they get overwhelmed with an offer and know he's going to pay for running back. Where is Dalvin Cook getting picked? He'll probably be in that fourth or fifth round range, would be my guess. You know, depending on how he finishes. No big disappointment for him, but there's a lot to like if he's healthy. Yeah. No, yeah.
Starting point is 00:37:50 I've been really disappointed, but I'm optimistic for the future still yeah um trying to think of any other backfields that there's somebody sitting there that you could say wow next year he's going to be this i don't know if there is one i i think in addition to having a lot of great quarterbacks around the league right now, we've got a lot of great running backs and a lot of great offensive schemers that use these running backs in a very good way, and it's helping us out in fantasy. And they're staying healthy. Hopefully they stay that way. And they continue to put up points and make life easy on us.
Starting point is 00:38:21 Okay, so based on what you said about Fournette, is he somebody that you're going to avoid next year? I think he's around three at earliest. Because when he's played, he's been good. Yeah, of course. But he's also not been efficient. He hasn't had a lot of...
Starting point is 00:38:40 Efficient as a runner versus efficient as fantasy are two different conversations. Because as a fantasy running back, he's been great. Because of the touchdowns and because of the volume. I don't know if it's a slam dunk that he stays in Jacksonville. I think he'll go in the second round. Where do you think he's going? I have absolutely no idea.
Starting point is 00:38:55 But I could see Jacksonville trying to move on from him. He's been suspended for a game each of the last two years. He's been a knucklehead. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's cheap. Well, he's cheap to a degree. He was been a knucklehead. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. Well, he's cheap to a degree. He was a former top five pick. His contract isn't exactly...
Starting point is 00:39:10 But he's still under his rookie deal. It's cheap. It's compared to like, you know, Gurley and all those guys are getting paid. Of course, that's cheap. They're not signing TJ Yeldon and moving on from Leonard Fournette. No, but they could draft somebody. Again? They're going to draft a running back? They could. Listen, they botched it with Carlos Hyde.
Starting point is 00:39:27 They want to do something. I think there's maybe something in his contract, the second suspension. I'm not sure that his... Because he is a $7 million running back next year and an $8 million running back the year after, which is not particularly cheap for running backs. It's cheap compared to the salary cap, though.
Starting point is 00:39:46 Yes. Right. It's just that all running backs are trying to get all running backs cheap now. Sure. No, he won't kill the salary cap. That's not a reason. I don't think they cut him. But I think if they can't shop him to a team that wants to have that type of a running back,
Starting point is 00:40:00 I think they'd be open to negotiating. Okay. He's going to be back with Jackson next year. Who's a bust candidate for you? In 2019? You just spent forever talking about him. Yeah. Fournette will be on that list.
Starting point is 00:40:15 Is LeSean McCoy still in the NFL? Probably. He'll be on that list. Another guy that I think could be off his team is Jordan Howard in Chicago. I don't think he'll be. I think they're already starting to phase him out a little bit. I know for me it'll be probably Le'Veon in a bad spot. Yeah, like if he goes to the Jets.
Starting point is 00:40:33 100%. He might be a bust no matter where he goes, though, because he's going to be close to 28 years old. I would like him a lot in Indy. Anywhere else. Well, of course I'd like him. Anywhere else I'll be nervous about, but Ingram will make me nervous. Le'Veon will
Starting point is 00:40:47 make me nervous. Would James Conner make you nervous? Let's say he finishes the season. As a first rounder, yes. As a second rounder, no. And I'll feel the same way about David Johnson. As a first rounder, I'm not going to be interested, but if he's going mid to late
Starting point is 00:41:03 second, I'll probably be okay with it. And we'll see how he finishes with Byron Lefferts. All right, we're going to get into a lot of these look-aheads as he moves on. I think wide receiver will be unbelievably fascinating. Should be. Just think about this. Don't answer it. Think about it.
Starting point is 00:41:16 Everybody, think about it. Who's the number one receiver in fantasy next year? Who's the one receiver that you will take ahead of the rest of the pack next year? That's a tough question to answer. It's not a slam dunk. Probably determined in the next month. Could be.
Starting point is 00:41:30 Yep. Probably determined if any quarterbacks retire, too. New Orleans at Dallas. New Orleans is obviously on. Is this the Thursday night preview? Yes. We haven't done this in a long time because I haven't been here on Wednesdays. We'd still do it.
Starting point is 00:41:42 You just haven't done it. Oh, really? Yes. We do it every Wednesday. All right. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Oh, that. Yeah. We haven't done this in a long time because I haven't been here on Wednesdays. We'd still do it. You just haven't done it. Oh, really? Yes. Oh. We do it every Wednesday. All right. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na. Yeah. Oh, that.
Starting point is 00:41:49 Yeah. We haven't done that. All right. So Thursday night preview in New Orleans at Dallas. You have the Saints coming in on an impressive roll. Dallas has played well late. Let's start with the Saints side of things. Drew Brees, we all have him ranked in the top 12.
Starting point is 00:42:02 I think. There's nothing to talk about. Well, there is potentially. I mean, this is a great week for quarterbacks. There are no more bye weeks. J think. There's nothing to talk about. Well, there is potentially. I mean, this is a great week for quarterbacks. There are no more bye weeks. Jameis Winston's on the table. Lamar Jackson, somebody that we've already hinted at. Baker Mayfield's playing well.
Starting point is 00:42:13 For you, I don't think so. I think, according to Adam's notes, you haven't ranked number two. I haven't ranked. I think I moved down to six. You have number 11. So we've got plenty to talk about. Jameis Winston or Drew Brees? I'll go Jameis Winston over Drew Brees.
Starting point is 00:42:24 And I don't think that Drew Brees is going to give you a bad game but it is a thursday night game on the road and i do think there's a chance that they're a little bit more conservative and i know what dallas would like to do is just run the ball with seek it's going to be hard against new orleans but they'd like to play a slower game they generally don't run a lot of offensive plays so i think there's a chance that breeze once again throws 28 to 30 passes. And there will be games when he throws 28 to 30 passes, and that means two passing touchdowns. Because Kamara scores two, or Ingram scores one, and Kamara scores one. And if he throws 30 passes and throws two touchdowns, he's not going to be a top 12 quarterback. So I think there's risk there.
Starting point is 00:42:58 So I think it's more that what you're getting at is you're not benching Drew Breeze. You're not benching Drew Breeze as much as you would say start Winston over him. If you have those guys on your roster, though, you would consider starting Winston over Brees. I don't know how many people have that scenario. So you think Brees is going to have what? At this point, ranking him two is at least 303. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:43:18 And I know he's on the road. I saw last week 104. I know he's on the road, but it's still indoors, fast track. I think that's conducive to what the Saints want. I think the Saints will have to put up some points because I think Dallas will put up some points on them. Dallas has really turned their offense around with the addition of Amari Cooper.
Starting point is 00:43:38 I think their secondary isn't that great, and I think that Breeze can take advantage and pick them apart. And I just think he's in line for another big game. I don't think they go in here with the idea of running it up the gut with Mark Ingram like they might do when they're playing outdoors at Baltimore or at Cincinnati or whatever. I think this is
Starting point is 00:43:55 just another good matchup for Brees to chuck in. And that's mostly what they did last week. He didn't throw the ball much last week. But he just found a bunch of touchdowns. And I don't, that's just, I just, I'm okay with starting him and thinking he'll probably just throw touchdowns, but that was an outlier last week, throwing four touchdowns with less than 200 yards passing or right at 200 yards passing.
Starting point is 00:44:15 100%. Sure. It's not something that's going to be the norm. The difference for me is whether he scores two or three. My liking of Brees is a little bit of the intangibles as much as the on-the-field stuff. I do think that this is a Sean Payton coach that is tied to the Dallas franchise that would not have a problem sticking it to Jerry Jones in a respectable manner by putting his quarterback, who, by the way, is an MVP candidate,
Starting point is 00:44:39 in position to continue to throw and have some success to pad his stats a little bit to get to that MVP award. Plus, the run defense for Dallas is very good and you can get Camara out in space. We're obviously all starting out with Camara, but Mark Ingram is somebody that could be a little bit touchy when you have Gus Edwards and Josh Adams and Austin Eckler and some running backs on the table that you may not have had when you drafted or sat on Mark Ingram.
Starting point is 00:45:02 So does Ingram necessarily be considered a must-start running back? No, I don't think so. I think he's a number two running back, but it's kind of by default. I think he's toward the low end of that group. He's been so flighty. He's got three games this year where he's been just unbelievable and four games where he's been a dud. Dallas' run defense, I know that you say
Starting point is 00:45:26 Sean Lee is the key to it, but Leighton Van Der Esch has been doing a nice job. Oh, they've been better. They're definitely getting better against the run. I think this is a game where Alvin Kamara gets used, and that's just another reason why I like Drew Brees. Because I think Kamara gets more playing time, and I think if Mark Ingram doesn't score,
Starting point is 00:45:42 he's going to have a very hard time getting 100 yards, and he'll be in fantasy. They've thrown the ball to Ingram just about as much as they have Kamara. He has been a non-factor in the past game. A lot of that, I think if Mark Ingram doesn't score, he's going to have a very hard time getting 100 yards and he'll be in fantasy. They've thrown the ball to Ingram just about as much as they have Kamara. He has been a non-factor in the past game. A lot of that, I think, has to do with score. They haven't been chasing the scoreboard. I don't think that'll be the case here. We'll get to Dallas in a second.
Starting point is 00:45:55 I mean, I'm obviously starting Mark Ingram, but I'm starting Aaron Jones over him, for example. I would start Gus and Josh Adams over him in non-PPR. So you're at that point, are you too? Yes, absolutely. Over Kamara? No, over Ingram. I'm sorry, I thought we were still talking about Ingram. I'm sorry, I was talking about Kamara. Wow, you're starting Gus and Adams over Kamara?
Starting point is 00:46:13 No, I'm starting Aaron Jones over Kamara. Yes, I am too. Yeah, sure. Against Arizona? I think you look at Ingram, yes. I would start Adams, I would start Edwards, I would start Eckler over Mark Ingram this week. We're starting Michael Thomas, but now we get to the second Saints wide receiver. If Traquan Smith starts, are we
Starting point is 00:46:30 starting him? I don't want to. I'd rather start him than Allen Robinson. I'd rather start him than Jarvis Landry. Chris Conley or Traquan Smith? They're right in the same range. I don't have Traquan projected right now, but I'd probably go with Traquan because I think the upside's a little bigger, but they're right in the same range. Josh don't have Traquan projected right now, but I'd probably go with Traquan because I think the upside's a little bigger,
Starting point is 00:46:46 but they're right in the same range. Josh Reynolds or Traquan Smith? I think I'd go Josh. I would too. Okay. So he'd be a borderline number two, number three receiver. Top 36 receiver. Top 36 receiver. Fair enough. If Traquan Smith is out, any interest in the three guys who stepped up in his place that combined for three
Starting point is 00:47:01 touchdowns? We'll talk about Dan Arnold in a second, but you had Keith Kirkwood, Tommy Lee Lewis, and Austin Carr all find the end zone. Kirkwood had the most targets of the group with three. Other guys had one each. Yeah, I'm not going down that path. You'd have to be very desperate to use Keith Kirkwood. He'd be your favorite of that group? He would be my favorite of the group.
Starting point is 00:47:20 He would be who I would plug into my showdown lineup. Fair enough. Dan Arnold, starting to show something a little bit, had his breakout game. I expect him to be fine. He's dealing with a chest injury. We know how the practice designations go for the Thursday game. Sometimes it's not necessarily the exact injury or even if they are hurt, but could just be something that is limiting them in practice. Any interest in Dan Arnold? I wish he'd play more because I think he's an interesting piece that the Saints could use.
Starting point is 00:47:47 I think he's, what did I say, a poor man's Jimmy Graham when Jimmy Graham was good? He might be better than Jimmy Graham right now. But he's a big dude. He's got some decent speed. They took a couple of deep shots with him last week, and everybody knows that he scored. He's okay.
Starting point is 00:48:04 There's other tight ends. I'd rather go with Herndon. I'd rather hold on to Jesse James right now on the assumption that Vance McDonald doesn't play and go with him over Arnold. But if Vance McDonald starts practicing on Wednesday and Thursday, then I'd probably drop James, and Arnold would be one of the tight ends I would consider. That's the hard thing in talking about Jesse James versus the tight ends on Thursday is we probably aren't going to know if McDonald's playing on Thursday.
Starting point is 00:48:26 If McDonald's doesn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, then I'd feel a little bit better about James' chances to be the only tight end for Pittsburgh. The only tight end of note that I would start Arnold over is Jimmy Grimm. I don't like Trey Burton, but I'd rather start Trey Burton. I would too. I actually think Burton's got a chance. I would only start Arnold if Trey Kwan Smith is out. If Smith plays, too many amounts to feed in his offense.
Starting point is 00:48:48 So I think you saw last week, no Smith. Arnold, targets rise, production rises. Yeah, but he's been pulling about 20% of the snaps. Yeah, he's hurting Ben Watson. I mean, I don't think he's hurting Trey Kwan Smith. I think if Smith is there, he's their guy. And look, we could get the scenario of Brandon Marshall also being activated for the first time
Starting point is 00:49:03 as a member of the Saints. Alright, let's move to the Dallas side of things. Dak Prescott's been playing very well of late, coming off a great game against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. But tougher matchup, though, against the Saints. Heath, you're the most optimistic about Prescott. Would you start him or Lamar Jackson? I actually have him one spot ahead of Jackson in six-point-per-pass touchdown leagues. That will probably end up changing by the end of the week. These are early rankings still, but it's Wednesday for a Thursday game.
Starting point is 00:49:27 I think Prescott's, first off, he's playing good. Second off, he's running a decent amount. And Amari Cooper has just made all the difference in the world. He's going to have to throw more than Dallas wants to throw because New Orleans is going to have a lead in this game. I'd rather start him than Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers. What about you? I'm starting Phillip Rivers way ahead of Dak Prescott this week. I love Phillip.
Starting point is 00:49:48 With no Melvin Gordon there, Phillip Rivers is going to have to throw 35-plus times. He's also on the road in a tougher spot, whereas Prescott's at home. As well as the Saints defense has played of late, they've still given up points to opposing quarterbacks. My concern about Dak Prescott is the offensive line. Tyron Smith's not going to play. Yeah, but that didn't hurt him on Thanksgiving.
Starting point is 00:50:06 That didn't hurt him against Washington. This is a much better defense with a better pass rush at this point that Davenport's not back in the mix. Sure, then with Washington, I'll give you that. And their run defense is great, so you could get Prescott a little bit more of a one-dimensional thing. Not that you're benching Zeke, but they could put them in a little bit more of second and long, third and long, where
Starting point is 00:50:22 Dallas, like you said, Heath, they want to kind of dictate the pace a little bit. They may not have the opportunity to because either they're chasing a scoreboard or and long, where Dallas, like you said, Heath, they want to kind of dictate the pace a little bit. They may not have the opportunity to because either the chasing scoreboard or their defense, excuse me, their offense is not doing the things that Dallas typically does. So we'll see how that sort of changes things. They are at home, though, on Thursday. I don't love Prescott this week. I've been debating myself, Brady versus, I'm starting Rivers over him also, but Brady versus Prescott for me is tough.
Starting point is 00:50:43 Cousins versus Prescott for me is tough. But they're all in that group outside of the top 12, right? Prescott is near 20 for me. He's not close to 12. Right. And I kind of feel like that could be a mistake, but it's one that I'm going to ride with. I just don't think he's got that big upside in this game.
Starting point is 00:51:02 I think he can find two touchdowns. Much different situation, though. I think he can find two touchdowns. Much different situation, though. I think he can find two scores. I don't think he'll have a ton of yardage. I don't think he'll run that much. He has been playing well. He's been playing great. Since Cooper's been there.
Starting point is 00:51:15 He's been playing great. He really has. This is a tough one for me. Two games ago, he struggled? Against Atlanta. Against Atlanta. He didn't throw a touchdown. So, I mean, he could be in that type of spot.
Starting point is 00:51:26 I'm just a little bit nervous with the offensive line. And we're obviously starting with Zeke Elliott, but Amari Cooper, while he's been fantastic, I'm curious to see what they're going to do in terms of Saints because what we saw last week was Lattimore on Ridley, single coverage, that's your guy. Eli Apple on Julio Jones with help. Is it going to be Lattimore on Amari Cooper with help?
Starting point is 00:51:49 Keep the guys on their sides and just roll coverage because you don't have to worry about anybody else on this team. No, you've got to spy Ezekiel Elliott, but that's about it. Because they have the, you know, Anzalone can do that himself. Yeah, I'm starting Amari Cooper, but it will be interesting to see what New Orleans does. DJ Moore or Amari Cooper? I'll go Cooper. I'll take Moore. Josh Reynolds or Amari Cooper? Cooper. Corey Davis or Amari Cooper?
Starting point is 00:52:15 Cooper. I'll take Davis over him too. I'm with you on Reynolds, but I don't love this setup for Amari Cooper this week. The DSTs for either of these two games, the Saints would be the one you would consider in this match against Dallas. Yeah, and I think it's probably evident by the conversations we've had about Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper. I am not as
Starting point is 00:52:35 excited about the Saints' defense in this game, but this could be the game where they just turn into the you start them period, don't worry about it ever. And you guys may already be there. I have them as a low-end starter, yes. I think the Saints defense, their pass rush. Again, no Tyron Smith is going to be, I think, a factor here. You looked at the teams that they faced in terms of Dallas recently.
Starting point is 00:52:53 I don't buy into the Washington defense with the way they've been playing. Atlanta's defense is terrible. Tennessee's defense, I think, has been vastly overrated. And so that's the teams that Prescott's taken advantage of. Philly's defense, when he played them, they were falling apart. That's when the secondary was a mess. So he's had a soft schedule. I know the numbers don't necessarily suggest that, but in terms Prescott's taking advantage of. Philly's defense, when he played them, they were falling apart. That's when the secondary was a mess. So he's had a soft schedule. I know the numbers don't necessarily suggest that,
Starting point is 00:53:08 but in terms of the play on the field. So Dak makes me a little bit nervous, which is why I like the Saints defense a little bit. I'm encouraged by them a little bit this week. All right, let's do a little round of tweets here, and we'll wrap up the show. Adam likes to do these tweets about players on Wednesday, so I'm just going to ask you about the guys.
Starting point is 00:53:23 You tell me what you think about their outlook for this week. First one is Matt Ryan, fool's gold. Looks good to start, but disappointed more times than not. Nope. I think he's a top 12 quarterback this week. Yeah, I would reject that email on its premise. Matt Ryan's the number four quarterback in fantasy this year. That's not fool's gold.
Starting point is 00:53:41 You like him this week against Baltimore? I think he's fine. I struggle with him and Lamar Jackson, to be honest with you. Yeah. See how it goes. Hopefully he plays well at home. Rudolph or Everett this week, non-PPR? I'll take Rudolph.
Starting point is 00:53:56 Yeah, I'm going Rudolph. I'll go Rudolph as well. Alshon Jeffery, start or sit? I'm sitting him. Try and sit him. 15% of the team's targets since Golden Tate came back, or since Golden Tate was acquired, he can't be good with 15%. He's a touchdown or best tight end.
Starting point is 00:54:11 The thing you have to hope for with Alshon is that the tackling skills of the Washington secondary is on display like they were against the Mark Cooper last week. Will Josh Adams be more trustworthy than David Johnson in fantasy football this week? I think it's close. Yeah, that's a very good one. I'm actually, that was one that's making me go to the rankings.
Starting point is 00:54:31 I have Johnson ranked two spots ahead, so I'll go with Johnson. I'm also going to go with Johnson. I'm going with David Johnson, too. I don't buy into this Packers defense being good. Plus, he'll make some impact in the passing game. Yeah, last week was frustrating, but I think he's going to be better more times than that. Mark Ingram or Josh Adams?
Starting point is 00:54:48 We talked about this one. Is Tyler Boyd relevant without Andy Dalton if A.J. Green comes back? So would you trust Tyler Boyd if A.J. Green is back on the field, even though Jeff Driscoll is? I think it helps Boyd if A.J. Green comes back. Yeah, I will
Starting point is 00:55:04 have him a little bit lower. But just because it's, I mean, he may be more efficient. I think he'll get less targets. But I would still probably start him either way. Tough matchup, though, against Chris Harrison, that Broncos secondary. Yeah. Austin Eckler or Phillip Lindsey this week in PPR? I'll go Eckler.
Starting point is 00:55:23 I love Phillip Lindsey this week. I like Eckler a lot, but I'm going Phillip. Yeah, I think I'm going to go Bengals are so bad. Yeah, I think it's got to be Lindsey. So bad. Try and start both if you can. Is David Njoku a starting tight end rest of season?
Starting point is 00:55:37 Yeah. Can he dive from the 8-yard line and still score touchdowns? Flying body press! I think he is in that group of tight ends that if he is your tight end, that's fine to just keep starting him. Right. I don't. He's starting over him.
Starting point is 00:55:50 I don't. Cameron Braid or David Njoku? Njoku. I'll take Braid. Yeah. I've got Njoku ranked one spot higher. Okay. I mean, he's going to have at least two more games this year where he gives
Starting point is 00:56:02 you like one point. Probably. Could be this week. Wilson, Winston, or Lamarson at quarterback and six points for passing touchdowns a must win game they're all must win i've got wilson in one spot ahead whoa i know back on the bandwagon uh taking you 13 weeks yeah now he's gonna be bad so you should definitely start james winston yeah james is my pick i'm gonna go russell wilson too i think he's in a be bad, so you should definitely start Jameis Winston. Yeah, Jameis is my pick. I'm going to go Russell Wilson, too. I think he's in a good spot. I've got Russell Wilson five, Jameis six.
Starting point is 00:56:28 San Francisco's terrible. Is Lamar Miller setting us up for Fooled You, take away the spectacular TD run, and his game was blah. Nervous about putting him ahead of guys like Chris Carson, Matt Breida, and Mark Ingram. I'm with you on Carson and Breida. I would play them over Lamar. No, actually, I'd play Lamar Miller over Breida this week
Starting point is 00:56:44 and definitely over Ingram for me. I would play Brita and Miller. Not Carson. Carson's our star of the week this week. Oh, really? I did not know that. Yes. Yeah, I mean, I've got Carson right one spot behind Ingram at 21.
Starting point is 00:57:03 Okay. I have Miller as my number 22 running back, but he's behind Ingram at 21. Okay. I have Miller as my number 22 running back, but he's behind Ingram, Breida, Carson. So you like Ingram better than Miller? I do like Ingram better than Miller. Interesting. So we've given this guy no help at all. Yes. All right. So there you go. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:18 All right. So your two are who? My two are Miller and Breida. Your two are who? My two from this list are going to be, is Carson on this list? Yes. Carson, Brita, Ingram, Miller. Carson and Ingram. Carson and Ingram.
Starting point is 00:57:30 I'm going Carson and Miller. Okay, there you go. All right, next question. Baldwin or DJ Moore, rest of season? DJ Moore. Moore. Give me more. Any chance Alex Collins takes his job back in Baltimore?
Starting point is 00:57:42 Very, very, very, very soon. Did something happen to Gus Edwards? Go watch Dumb and Dumber. Go watch the end when Jim Carrey says, are you saying there's a chance? That's the chance. The answer that Lauren Holly gives him. I forget what her character name is. Can we trust Alshon Jeffrey and Carson Wentz in the fantasy playoffs?
Starting point is 00:57:58 No. Wentz maybe. Alshon probably not. What do you do with LaShawn McCoy and Jordan Howard? I actually like McCoy this week. I think you can flex McCoy this week and maybe, I mean, if you want to hold on to Howard and hope he scores a touchdown someday. Yeah, but when are you going to start him and feel good about it?
Starting point is 00:58:14 I've got LeGarrette Blount right ahead of Jordan Howard. This is the week for Jordan Howard. If he's going to score, it's got to be this one. I don't know if he's going to even get the opportunity. He's been bad. Not getting a lot of work, and he's been a slug. Detroit has been his kryptonite. What, a crazy deep sleeper?
Starting point is 00:58:29 Why is Royce Freeman still on my roster? I don't know. I think Royce Freeman scores this week. He might. I like him better than Howard, too. Yeah, I don't like him better than Howard. Yeah, if there's a week to trust Royce Freeman, this is it against Cincinnati because they are awful, awful, awful.
Starting point is 00:58:45 What can we expect from Allen Robinson once Mitchell Trubisky is back? Two good games, one fine game, one terrible game. Lots of frustration. I have no idea which week will be which. Would you rather have Suman Sammy Watkins is out, Chris Conley, or Allen Robinson rest of season? Sammy Watkins doesn't play anymore the rest of the season? I'll take Conley. Conley. Josh Reynolds or Allen Robinson the rest of the season?
Starting point is 00:59:07 Reynolds. I think it's Reynolds. Curtis Samuel or Allen Robinson the rest of the season? I think I'll take Robinson. I'm playing the waiver wire. That's where Allen Robinson has fallen. All right. Between Sonny Michel, Joe Mixon, and Mark Ingram,
Starting point is 00:59:21 which running back are you most likely sitting in PPR this week? Give me the names one more time. Sonny Michel, Joe Mixon, and Mark Ingram. Oh, Ingram is who you said. I don't know. Sonny Michel in PPR against his Vikings defense could be tough. I have Michel ranked the lowest in PPR. I do too.
Starting point is 00:59:39 Did you guys talk yesterday about Rex Burkett? Yes. There's a chance the touchdowns could go bye-bye. There's a chance Sonny Michel could be in trouble. Yeah, we'll see. I hope he's not. Or there's a chance Rex Burkhead plays special teams. There's a chance, according to Mike Reese, I think it was, of ESPN,
Starting point is 00:59:55 that he's working on every third series, which would be annoying as all can be if he's on the field that much and taking Sonny Michel and James White off. There's one more topic we have to cover, and it is got to go back. Na, na, na, na, na, na, na.

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