Fantasy Football Today - 12/14 Fantasy Football Podcast: Start or Sit (AFC); Stats That Matter

Episode Date: December 14, 2017

Starting off with some Week 15 sleepers (2:00), then find out why Dak Prescott is our Start of the Week (4:35) and why Heath isn't buying in ... Stats that might matter for Kareem Hunt (14:30), Joe Fl...acco (17:28) and Jarvis Landry (19:12). Plus an Aizer Fantasy Tip (20:10) for the first time in a long time ... NE-PIT (22:30), DAL-OAK (30:45), ATL-TB (39:00), HOU-JAC (46:54), LAC-KC (51:36), BAL-CLE (58:20), MIA-BUF (1:02:45) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! Get your lineup set. It's time for Star Tours 6. Let's go! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We are breaking down the AFC home games, telling you about the start of the week,
Starting point is 00:00:23 give you some stats that may or may not matter. We'll let you decide. We'll let Dave, Jamie, and Heath decide. Welcome to the show. It's Fantasy Football today on Thursday, December 14th. I did not know how to start the show today. So Jamie said, start with a joke. So I said, okay, I'll Google a joke. So here's short-funny.com with a joke. That's ought to be good.
Starting point is 00:00:45 A man got hit hard in the head with a can of 7-Up. He's all right, though. It was a soft drink. Okay, good. All right, and we are rolling. You got Jamie to laugh. Not because it was funny. Because it was so bad?
Starting point is 00:01:00 It was a delivery. It was a delivery. We're on our way here. Okay, hey, two quick news items. Zach Ertz is going to play this week. He's a top three tight end in the rankings. And Alvin Kamara practiced in full. He's still in the concussion protocol, but we expect Kamara to play, right?
Starting point is 00:01:14 Yes. All right. Yep. Well, good morning, guys. How you doing? You're in a good mood now with that joke? Never better. So excited.
Starting point is 00:01:22 I feel like I have to sneeze. This is a huge, huge week. Yeah, it is. I'm excited, too. I got some good teams. I've decided to go against what you guys said. I'm starting Mariota over Simeon tonight, this week. Good.
Starting point is 00:01:40 That's risky. Oh, it's very risky. So we're all cheering for Simeon to throw three touchdowns. We are not. We are rooting against Trevor Simeon today. That will make tomorrow's show much better if Simeon throws three touchdowns. You won't even be on it. You won't even be on it. What do you care?
Starting point is 00:01:56 I'm going to listen to it. Give me some sleepers. Give me some week 15 sleepers, guys. Any position does not matter. You've got five seconds to think about it. Five, four, three. Trevor position does not matter. You've got five seconds to think about it. Five, four, three. Trevor Simeon. No! Wouldn't he be a sleeper? Trevor Simeon. Short week. Indianapolis
Starting point is 00:02:11 doesn't have a great pass rush. Three rookie cornerbacks starting. Has some good wide receivers. What one? Well, one really good one and a couple of decent ones. How about one that a lot of people might start? Last week we said Frank Gore. We said uh jason witten how about jordy yeah i like it i don't know he's a consensus top 20 wide receiver according to the expert rankings yeah everybody else likes him
Starting point is 00:02:37 i uh how about mike davis Yeah, yeah. Full practice yesterday. He's had 16 and 15 carries in each of his last two games. The Rams are terrible against the run. With all those defensive injuries, you would think Seattle would want to try to keep their defense off the field and at least rested. So I'll say Mike Davis. Does Jonathan Stewart count as a sleeper, or has he been too good lately? I mean, he was a free agent coming into the week, so I would say he qualifies. Okay. So he's a sleeper, or has he been too good lately? I mean, he was a free agent coming into the week, so I would say he qualifies. Okay, so he's a sleeper. I think Mohamed Sanu can
Starting point is 00:03:09 be a good option. Yeah, that one's interesting, because Jamie and Heath were saying they liked Sanu yesterday. Yep, I do too. I'm not sure. I'm not ready to quit entirely on Jamison Crowder. Oh, that's an interesting one, but can I just give a Sanu stat real quick?
Starting point is 00:03:25 A new stat? Is it a new stat? So the Bucs are at home facing the Falcons, and on the road the Bucs are really bad against number two wide receivers, but at home a number two wide receiver has scored more than six fantasy points once in six games. Last week, I mean, I guess technically, I don't know if you count Golden Tate as the number two guy. He scored 14, but Marvin Jones only scored six. So, in other words,
Starting point is 00:03:50 there's only been one instance in six Tampa Bay home games where two wide receivers have scored more than six fantasy points in the same game. I don't know. Sanu's just coming off his best game, or one of his best games. He scares me a little bit. He's the number three receiver with upside. He has a touchdown in three of his last four.
Starting point is 00:04:08 And a passing touchdown. Well, that's one of the touchdowns. Well, that doesn't count then. Then he has a touchdown in two of his last four. Technically, he scored. He did. But the reason why he is a sleeper and Matt Ryan is a little higher in the rankings than what his fantasy production would indicate is that Bucs allow
Starting point is 00:04:24 the most passing guards per game in the rankings than what his fantasy production would indicate, is that Bucs allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL. And they've allowed 317 or more yards in three of their last four games. So I get it. I get it. All right, I think that's good. Thank you for some sleepers. Let's talk about the start of the week. The start of the week is Dak Prescott.
Starting point is 00:04:40 And there's disagreement here because Dave's got him second. Jamie's got him fourth. Heath, 15th for Dak Prescott. Dak hater Heath Cummings. I do. I hate Dak Prescott. I think I've made this known often, especially like two weeks ago when I was still saying I still thought he was probably better than Carson Wentz. You think Nick Foles is better than Carson Wentz, so I'm not surprised.
Starting point is 00:05:02 No, I never said that at all. But we should – it's Jamie's start of the week. We should start with Jamie, right? Sure. Jamie, you have him fourth. Dak Prescott. I just like the way he played the last two games. I think you've seen when he's had a healthy offensive line for the last nearly two years
Starting point is 00:05:19 that he has the chance to put up good numbers. I don't buy the Raiders' defense at all, so I don't think he's going to face a heavy pass rush here. And I think you've seen him. He's gone west already three times, so I don't think the travel is going to impact him. I just think he's playing well. So I would not be surprised if he has 25-plus fantasy points.
Starting point is 00:05:38 He played incredibly well last week. He was okay the week before, and then the three games prior he was terrible, but that was when there was all this offensive line issues and cowboys run game wasn't exactly great i think everything is back on track now in dallas and i agree with you jamie i think oakland's defense is stinky despite alex smith not having any touchdowns he should have had three and i think dak prescott can come through with three of his own and i think he's going to need to do it in this game i think there could be some points scored from Oakland.
Starting point is 00:06:05 All right, Hader Heath. Hader Heath. Last five games, Dak Prescott has 30, 31, 27, 22, and 30 pass attempts. He averages right around seven yards per pass attempt. What was he last year, though? Last year? Yeah, his pass attempts. I forget about last year.
Starting point is 00:06:21 How about earlier this year? There was one game this year where he had 50 pass attempts. There was. He's been over 31 once in his last eight games. And even last week, he had 110 yards and two of his touchdowns on huge yak plays by Rod Smith and Des Bryant. The touchdown pass to Smith for 80 yards was like a 10-yard slam. Yeah, it is a good point. He wasn't doing anything before Landon Collins got hurt.
Starting point is 00:06:49 Almost all the production came in like the last five minutes of the game. Oh, wait, wait, breaking news. The Raiders just traded for Landon Collins. I'm just saying that the Giants are pretty bad even with Landon Collins, and Dak didn't do anything. It's a good matchup. I think he throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns, and there's a chance that he has more upside than that.
Starting point is 00:07:06 I just – I have him ranked where I do because I think in terms of probability, throwing that few passes limits your chances of reaching that upside. But we've seen him throw those little amounts of passes before. He has a game this year where he attempted 18 passes, had two touchdowns, 22 passes. I'm not saying he can't do it. He can, but you look. Like in San Francisco, he completed 16 of 25 passes, 234 yards, three touchdowns. Sure.
Starting point is 00:07:32 And against the Philadelphia Eagles, he completed 18 of 31 for 145 and zero touchdowns. That was with the bad line. All right. You know what? That offensive line is right. He's right. The offensive line didn't have anything to do with Rod Smith and Des Bryant breaking tackles for long touchdowns. That's true.
Starting point is 00:07:51 Well, they certainly helped with his protection. Those were certainly random, but those guys are still going to be there for him this week, and it's not like this Raiders defense is known for holding back against players in the open field. They can still do it again. Did the Raiders really trade for Landon Collins? They did, yeah. Okay, cool. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:08:09 Post-trade deadline. Like a post-waiver trade deadline. Okay, anyway, that's Dak Prescott. I think it's really interesting. I mean, he's got him 15th, so obviously there's a lot of quarterbacks. Heath would start ahead of Dak. But Dave and Jamie starting Dak Prescott over Aaron Rodgers. Jamie's got them back-to-back.
Starting point is 00:08:24 Dave's got Prescott four spots ahead of Aaron Rodgers. That's pretty interesting. But, all right, everybody out there, make your decision. You know that two of the three analysts really like Dak this week. But all four of us on the show really like movement watches. That is the truth, okay? It's holiday time. You know, holiday shopping can be tough. Why don't
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Starting point is 00:10:06 Join the movement. Here are some news and notes. Marcus Mariota practiced in full. They're hoping he's going to be pretty healthy this weekend. And the last five quarterbacks against San Francisco have scored a lot of points. And they are Drew Stanton, 18. Eli Manning, 20. He doesn't score that many points without Odell Beckham.
Starting point is 00:10:26 Wilson, 27. Mitchell Trubisky, 11 fantasy points on 15 pass attempts. TJ Yates, 22 fantasy points. I mean, Mariota's got a better matchup than Simeon. He hasn't been playing very well. They both stink. Tyrod Taylor practiced in full. He will play.
Starting point is 00:10:40 All right, running back news. Leonard Fournette has a quad injury. Are we concerned about that, guys?ard fournette not yet let's wait and see if he practices on thursday we might even have an answer to that before we're we're done recording today's podcast okay but it'll be on the site one way or another if he misses practice on thursday then you have to at least raise an eyebrow. Not like The Rock, but more like a detective might raise an eyebrow. I can't do The Rock eyebrow raise. I can't do it. Can you?
Starting point is 00:11:13 Can you do it that high? Dave can. He just did it. It was pretty impressive. I don't think I can do it either. I have excellent control of my eyebrows. LaShawn McCoy has a knee injury. Are we worried about that?
Starting point is 00:11:25 No. I'm not worried about that? No. I'm not worried about it. It's not really surprising after that much work that his knee would be sore. Okay. Lots of things are probably sore. Joe Mixon is still in the concussion protocol. Meanwhile, Giovanni Bernard mispracticed with a knee injury. We'll preview that game tomorrow.
Starting point is 00:11:38 Would you go with a Thursday night running back over a Bengals running back this week? No. I think you have to. It depends on what's on waivers. Who can I get on waivers? Sure. If my only three viable starting running backs are Frank Gore, C.J. Anderson, and Joe Mixon, then you start both the guys tonight. Okay.
Starting point is 00:11:59 Tevin Coleman still in the concussion protocol. Adrian Peterson may be out for the season. Their next three games are at Washington. Kermit Williams has had like 17 or more carries, I think, in two straight games. At Washington. 16. 16 or more. Then the Giants at home, which could be a great one in your fantasy championship.
Starting point is 00:12:15 And then at Seattle in Week 17. And Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire mispracticed. Are we looking at Bilal Powell as a possible sleeper this week at New Orleans? Not yet. I think there's a chance Forte practices later on in the week. He played last week without practicing on Friday. Yeah, that's true. I wouldn't anticipate using a Jets player.
Starting point is 00:12:34 Yeah, a lot of older veterans take Wednesday off. Wide receiver news. Mike Wallace mispracticed, but he's expected to play. Kelvin Benjamin has a knee injury. Are you guys ranking Kelvin Benjamin? Not yet. Amari Cooper did not injury. Are you guys ranking Kelvin Benjamin? Not yet. No. Amari Cooper did not practice.
Starting point is 00:12:47 Are you ranking Amari Cooper? No. Not as of now. How about Ted Ginn? He mispracticed. I think we ranked Ginn, but I don't think we're very excited about his prospects either way. He was right on the border of being ranked or not.
Starting point is 00:13:00 Gotcha. I mean, not that many offensive line injuries, except the Lions really have a banged-up offensive line. Are you concerned about starting Matthew Stafford or Theo Riddick this week with how beat up the Lions O-line is? I'm concerned about Riddick because Abdullah's coming back. He could ruin both of them. I would assume he's going to get a larger share of the work than Tion Green did last week. So that worries me about Riddick. I don't have a lot of concerns about Stafford at home.
Starting point is 00:13:30 Jim Bob Cooter said he's excited to get Amir Abdullah back. So yay. Okay. I knew Abdullah was healthy, but he was inactive last week. There's a difference between being excited and definitely giving him 20 touches a game. So avoid the Lions running backs? Try to. I still think Riddick's a high-end
Starting point is 00:13:51 flex in PPR. They've got the Bears on Saturday. On defense, Patriots defensive tackle Alan Branch unlikely to play. I think you can start Le'Veon Bell. Drake Kirkpatrick and Vontaze Burfik still in the concussion protocol. Landon Collins did not practice. Some injuries for tonight.
Starting point is 00:14:08 Denver safety Justin Simmons is out for the season. That's a fairly big loss for Denver. Domita Peko likely to play. That hurts Frank Gore. Rashawn Melvin will not play. That helps Trevor Simeon. That's Colts cornerback. Then it probably helps Demarius Thomas. And Seattle linebackers
Starting point is 00:14:24 Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright will be questionable. We don't know the status yet. We'll update you. All right. Let me give you some stats from the games. Do they matter? Do these stats matter? For Kareem Hunt, the Chargers, in their last eight games, they've allowed double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues to only two running backs, LaShawn McCoy and Rod Smith. That does not include Corey Grant for Jacksonville, who I think had a fake punt run touchdown. Is that right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:55 So forget about him. So last eight games. This was a team that was the worst against running backs. Two running backs in their last eight games have scored double-digits scoring leagues against the Chargers, Sean McCoy and Rod Smith. Does that matter for Kareem Hunt coming off a good game last week? Sort of. It sort of does. I think Kareem Hunt had a nice game last week, and it was good to see him get that workload, and I think the Chiefs would like him to have a similar workload this week.
Starting point is 00:15:22 I don't know if they're going to have that type of opportunity. It's going to come down to how many points the Chargers put up. And I think that's going to be what dictates the game. If the Chargers' offense goes in there and do what they do, then I don't know how many carries Hunt's going to end up having. JV is whispering, this is the week for Karima. Do you feel that way? Do you feel like he's going to have another big game?
Starting point is 00:15:45 I think he'll be fine. I mean, I don't think that the Chargers will put up a big number early in the game. So I think you'll see the Chiefs stay in the game. Certainly they're still going to try to run the ball. They're going to try to slow down that offense. And so, yeah, I think Hunt is a very safe number two fantasy. And I think the receiving yardage stuff, I was thinking about this on the way in today. Like, what's Andy Reid going to do about that pass rush?
Starting point is 00:16:07 It's going to be, I would expect, a lot of slip screens and a lot of, hopefully, a couple of those go to Kareem Hunt. So I would expect he's still going to have opportunities. He's had, what, three catches each of the last two weeks since the coordinator change? The only time – Play calling change. They don't mind throwing him the ball. They don't like using him when they're in the hurry-up offense or way behind. So that would be when West would get the work.
Starting point is 00:16:36 But if it's just in the regular game flow, I think he'll get two or three catches. And to be fair, the Buffalo game and the Jets game were ugly for him. But the Jets game, I think, was we're going to just come out and throw. Well, the other thing is, like, the three catches per game, it's pretty much what he's been doing all season. That's not a huge difference. Yeah, I mean, they got away from that in the Buffalo game, which is, I think, the one that really set everybody into a tizzy. Yeah, okay.
Starting point is 00:16:57 He also averaged 1.5 yards per carry in that game. Yeah, they were bad. Yeah. That's what set people into a tizzy. Right, well, I mean, it was five straight games with seven or fewer fantasy points in standard scoring leagues for Hunt before 19 last week. Sure. But, I mean, just looking at his game log, the Giants game,
Starting point is 00:17:13 if you were to say he's getting 21 touches, you can't complain about that. You can't complain. He got 21 touches against a bad team, and he scored seven fantasy points. He had a bad performance, but you can't complain about the touches. No, you can't complain about the touches. No, you can't complain about the touches. All right. So moving on, does this stat matter for Joe Flacco? Look, you're in the fantasy playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:33 You want a little bit of safety. Only two quarterbacks all season have scored less than 17 fantasy points against the Browns. And Flacco had 18 in Week 2, and Flacco has had his two best games of the year in his last two weeks. Does that matter as you get ready for Joe Flacco this week? He's got such a good track record against Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:17:50 And the Browns are bad. I think he can score 17 again. Yep. I would actually go a little bit higher. I think he could be in the 18-20 range. Alright, how crazy am I when I say Joe Flacco will outscore Alex Smith this week? I don't think you're crazy.
Starting point is 00:18:05 It could easily happen. I think Smith has a much higher ceiling. I think that goes without saying. I don't get your ranking of Alex Smith. Jamie's got him 14th. Dave has him 12th. Yeah, I need to bump down a little bit. He's facing one of the toughest matchups. There's not been a quarterback that scored 20 fantasy points against a Chargers since week one.
Starting point is 00:18:22 And Smith hasn't had a good game in a tough matchup all year. Heath, why do you have Alex Smith ninth? I do expect that they're going to throw the ball a lot on those screens. I do think that Alex Smith's going to throw the ball probably 35 times in the game. And I expect to get
Starting point is 00:18:39 a couple of touchdowns. I think it's going to be a lot more than screens. I think it's going to be vertical too. But having success against this team is not going to be a lot more than screens. I think it's going to be vertical, too. But having success against this team is not going to be easy. The numbers at home have been terrible. It's a home game. The Chiefs are not exactly, I don't know if you know this, they're not a traditional passing team. So I don't
Starting point is 00:18:55 know. Their corners are amazing, the Chargers. They're playing great. They are playing awesome. And I trust them to shut down conventional wide receivers. I'm not sure if I trust them to shut down Tyreek Hill. This stat, does it matter for Jarvis Landry? Three career games at Buffalo, five catches for 49 yards, ten catches for 67 yards, three catches for 29 yards.
Starting point is 00:19:22 He has not been good at Buffalo. Does that matter? I think he's playing so well right now that it's hard to get away from him. Okay. And I don't see Buffaloes with a specific player or players on defense that are going to shut Landry down. Let's see what the weather looks like. It's not supposed to snow. That would be my bigger concern. Like, does Jarvis Landry just hate it when it's cold?
Starting point is 00:19:46 Because I'm sure it's going to be cold. Probably. And I looked, I said, man, the Dolphins are playing at Buffalo in December. That can't be good. They played at Buffalo on December 24th last year and won 34-31 in overtime. That was the Ajayi 200-yard game. Right. And he scored on that, like, 60-yard touchdown when Buffalo had 10 men on the field
Starting point is 00:20:06 in overtime or whatever it was. Alright, so those are some stats for you. We'll get into the games in just a second. Here's an Acer Fantasy tip. I had to save our team from a huge blunder from Heath Cummings last night. Oh boy, oh boy, Heath. You are lucky that we are
Starting point is 00:20:22 teammates. When you set a lineup, not you personally, Heath. This is kind of a tough Acer fantasy. Remember the Acer fantasy tips, guys, Dave? Yes, yes, yes. Very obvious fantasy tips that only I would be dumb enough to give. When you set a lineup and you have a player going on Thursday, so like in this case, we are starting three receivers in a two-receiver flex league.
Starting point is 00:20:43 And Demarius Thomas is our third wide receiver. We're starting Marvin Jones, Demarius Thomas, and Marquise Goodwin. So Heath had Demarius Thomas in the flex. I don't think I made that move. All right, fine. We had Demarius Thomas in the flex. I moved Demarius Thomas to wide receiver and Marquise Goodwin to flex. Why?
Starting point is 00:21:04 Let's say there's an injury with one of the guys going on Sunday. You don't want that guy locked into your wide receiver. You want him locked into your flex so you could replace him with either a running back or a wide receiver or a tight end. I hope that makes sense. I agree with you 100%, and that is a very good tip. I wouldn't even call that an Acer fantasy tip. I think that's a good fantasy tip.
Starting point is 00:21:23 Oh, thank you. I appreciate that. All right. We can read a diehard email, but I think people might be sick of that. The gist of it is that you have to include Rocky IV in Christmas movies, which Jamie probably would because anything that has even a little bit of Christmas is considered a Christmas movie for Jamie. But it's clearly not a Christmas movie, just proving the point that Die Hard is also not a Christmas movie. I thought the distinction was any movie that the Library of Congress has decided is a
Starting point is 00:21:49 Christmas movie. Which is not what happened with Die Hard. It's a topic for another day, probably tomorrow. Semantics. Team Name Tuesday on a Thursday. This one is subject line Heath Special from Darren in South Korea. Foles Gold.
Starting point is 00:22:06 Foles Gold. Instead. Foles Gold. Foles Gold. Instead of Fools Gold. That's right. Foles Gold. I like that a lot. It's very good. Are you going to change your team names to Foles Gold? Heath?
Starting point is 00:22:15 No. Not. But I like it. I can't like it that much. It's very good. Yeah. Well, maybe not this week. Foles might actually be gold this week.
Starting point is 00:22:24 He is 18th, 19th, and 17th in the rankings And with a week that could have a lot of scoring So it's not that we don't like him Alright, let's get to the games New England is at Pittsburgh Huge game This is a great week Very excited for these games
Starting point is 00:22:37 Big game Stat of the game Wide receivers against the Patriots in their last nine games That's when they started to have their defensive turnaround. A number two wide receiver has scored more than seven fantasy points, only twice in those nine games. Demarius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders had good games. And last week, Jarvis Landry and Jakeem Grant had good games.
Starting point is 00:22:57 So really, when you look at the Steelers, I mean, everybody's got Roethlisberger as a must-start, Bell and Brown, obviously. And Jesse James is a flyer against a team that's been great against tight ends. It's really Juju Smith-Schuster that I think is the only tough decision for these Steelers. So what do you guys think? Starter set, Juju Smith-Schuster, who, I mean, may be a little overrated. His last two games have been duds.
Starting point is 00:23:20 Yeah, I've got him ranked as a low-end number three receiver. Standard. I like him as a safe number three receiver. I like him as a low-end number three receiver, standard. I like him as a safe number three receiver. I like him as a high-end number three receiver. We've got him as a number three. It's just a matter of how you feel about him. But I'm with you, Adam. I don't think that he's earned being ranked much higher than a number three receiver
Starting point is 00:23:39 based on what we've seen lately. The real thing that comes down to, I think, is how many points do you think are scored in this game, and do you think Brown and Bell are going to score all of them? Yeah, and to say his numbers lately, I mean, he had a hamstring injury. Who knows how much that impacted him. He missed the game. Then he missed the game for the suspension. So it's not like he's had consistent on-field time.
Starting point is 00:24:00 I mean, after the three-touchdown game, he had eight targets against the Titans, then has the hamstring. Who knows when he hurt the hamstring. Then the Bengals game, again, gets suspended. So it's been a little choppy for him. Prior to that, I mean. He was fun.
Starting point is 00:24:16 He was great. Prior to that, he was a lot of fun. He needs to get back to that level again. Two big games in a row, sure. He had three games with a touchdown. He had two big games in a row. This is Juju Smith-Schuster we're talking about. And if Martavis Bryant doesn't play for whatever reason, then it's a great situation for him.
Starting point is 00:24:29 Would you start Juju Smith-Schuster or Robert Woods? Smith-Schuster. Woods. Smith-Schuster. Juju or Sanu? Sanu. I'll take Smith-Schuster. I think I have Smith-Schuster higher.
Starting point is 00:24:42 I'll take Sanu in PPR. How many of the Patriots running backs would you start over Juju? Two. Both. Just Rex. Okay. Obviously not James White. So Tom Brady.
Starting point is 00:24:58 Or Brandon Bolden. Tom Brady's two. Or Mike Gillespie. Tom Brady's two for Jamie, one for Heath, fifth for Dave. You can start Tom Brady. Let's see. The Patriots running backs again. Let's break it down.
Starting point is 00:25:10 What do you think about the Patriots running backs? What do you expect from them this week? Heath, why don't you go first? I think I'm the lowest on both of them. The second question you asked, what do you expect this week? That's one of the reasons I'm the lowest on both of them because I'm a little uncertain on what to expect this week. We've got a situation with Hogan, Gronk, Cooks, Burkhead, Dion Lewis, Danny Amendola. There's not enough touches for all those guys.
Starting point is 00:25:39 So I feel pretty confident that one of the two running backs is going to get left out in the cold a little bit. Now, that could still work out if Burkhead's the one that gets left out in the cold, and then he scores a goal line touchdown, and he's okay. Burkhead, for me, is a low-end number two that really needs to score. Deion Lewis is more of a flex because I'm afraid he won't score. What do a lot of teams that play the Patriots try to do on offense? On offense? On offense. What do a lot of teams that play the Patriots try to do on offense? On offense?
Starting point is 00:26:06 On offense. What do they sometimes try and do? What did the Dolphins just do? Are you saying run the ball? They ran all over them. They ran all over them because they wanted to try and keep that Patriots offense off the field. Right. I wonder if that's something the Patriots think about doing this week, especially since Shazier's injury.
Starting point is 00:26:27 The Steelers have allowed 5.7 yards per carry to running backs, 12.2 yards per catch to running backs, and three touchdowns. Eight quarters. And I can't help but think that maybe they try to get their ground game going. That's certainly a possibility. And I like Rex better than Deion Lewis because Rex plays a little bit more at the goal line. We've seen it, and he's scored in so many games lately. A lot more.
Starting point is 00:26:49 Yeah. I think the range of possibilities is anywhere from what Dave just outlined to another game where we see five carries for both of them. I think that only happens if this Patriots offense stalls out like it did against Miami, which was so unlike them. Yeah. And I would be surprised if it happens again. But I will say this.
Starting point is 00:27:07 They are on the road second week in a row, and it's a short week for the Patriots, too. Third week in a row. Third week in a row. Is it the third week in a row? It's the third week in a row. That's tough. Yeah. Well, okay.
Starting point is 00:27:15 So let me just say this. Deion Lewis had five catches last week, which was kind of strange. But I still think that if I have Deion Lewis in a PPR league, I'm inclined to sit him. Is that fair? It depends on who else you have. He's more of a flex option in PPR than he is a muster guy. Yeah, and that's just always the case in PPR. He's just not really a pass catcher, even though he had five for 50 last week.
Starting point is 00:27:40 All right, so I guess we can start comparing them to other running backs a little bit later in the show. How about the Patriots' wide receivers? You know, Brandon Cooks might be a little overrated. He has four games this season with double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. He has two terrible games in a row, but he is their deep threat, and we know the Steelers have about 14 pass plays of 30 or more yards
Starting point is 00:27:59 in their last six games and had another one called back on a crap penalty, A.J. Green touchdown that got called back. So, I mean, it should be a good game for him. How many of the Patriots wide receivers are you comfortable starting this week? Just Cooks. Yep. But I moved him down this morning. I moved him down from top five to 11th among wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:28:18 The potential is too great. And, listen, if the Steelers are going to put points on the board and the Patriots' run game is good but not great, eventually Brady's going to have to put the ball in the air. And this is a very good matchup for what it's worth, just all the way around for the Patriots, certainly on the ground. But Cooks can come through seven, eight targets in this game. Would you start C.J. Anderson over Chris Hogan or Danny Amendola?
Starting point is 00:28:42 Yep. Yes. Yep. Okay. I think that's basically it. Rob Gronkowski is the number one tight end. Ben Roethlisberger is third, fourth, and second for Jamie Davin Heath. He has 314 or more yards in each of his last five games against the Patriots,
Starting point is 00:28:57 including the postseason. Not that many touchdowns in some of those games, but he's just playing too well to sit. So start both these guys over Aaron Rodgers. And Jesse James is 19% owned. He's around 20th. He's a flyer. Patriots haven't allowed more than five fantasy points to a tight end in seven
Starting point is 00:29:13 straight games. Yeah, they've been good at covering tight ends. And I'm just going to go ahead and say sit the DSTs. Sit the DSTs. Anyone ever get underwear as a holiday gift? It could be kind of lame, right? Well, actually, the problem isn't that you got underwear. The problem is the kindSTs. Anyone ever get underwear as a holiday gift? It could be kind of lame, right? Well, actually, the problem isn't that you got underwear. The problem is the kind of underwear. It wasn't MeUndies. Go to MeUndies.com slash FFT for a special offer. MeUndies.com slash FFT, 20% off.
Starting point is 00:29:39 Let me tell you about MeUndies, the only underwear that makes for an amazing gift. And this is no joke, people. We all have our MeUndies. We all love MeUndies. Incredibly soft, three times softer than cotton. And I think the best thing you can say about them is that when I wear MeUndies, I honestly forget I'm wearing underwear. Sorry for the visual. And that is a great feeling. Okay.
Starting point is 00:30:00 What? We just didn't need to hear that. It's true, though. We love MeUndies, but we don't love the thought of you wearing MeUndies. Well, you know what? My wife does. That's the other thing. They look good.
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Starting point is 00:30:34 free shipping, and a 100% satisfaction guarantee. 20% off, free shipping, and a 100% satisfaction guarantee. MeUndies.com slash FFT. MeUndies.com slash FFT. MeUndies.com slash FFT. Would you like to talk about football or what I'm wearing under my sweatpants today? Ay, ay, ay. Football, please. Okay, one more thing.
Starting point is 00:30:56 One more thing. A police officer talks to a driver. Your taillight is broken. Your tires must be exchanged, and your bumper hangs halfway down. That'll be $300. The driver says, all alright, go ahead. They want twice as much as that garage. You know?
Starting point is 00:31:12 They want twice as much as that garage. So Dallas is at Oakland. Stat of the game. Are you guys even a little entertained? Well, I mean, we're all trying to keep our breakfast down after envisioning you prancing around in your MeUndies. And now you're dropping the worst kind of dad joke.
Starting point is 00:31:34 So on behalf of Jamie and he, excuse us for not breathing. Hey, Dave, why did the physics teacher break up with the biology teacher? Because he wasn't wearing me undies. There was no chemistry. Why can't you hear a pterodactyl go to the bathroom? There's no P? P is silent. Silent P. Yes, I got it.
Starting point is 00:32:01 Why can't you hear a dinosaur clap? Why? Because they're extinct. Okay. All right. So, stat of the game in Dallas, Oakland. At this point, Heath is comatose. Seven running backs.
Starting point is 00:32:15 He's working on something. I don't even know if Jamie's heard anything that's been said in the last three minutes. All right. Well, it's just me and you. All right. Hold on. Hold on. Let me get them back.
Starting point is 00:32:25 Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott. There you go. All right. Well, it's just me and you. Just me and you. All right. Hold on. Hold on. Let me get them back. Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott. There you go. All right. Now Heath's eyes are open, and Jamie's still working on whatever he's working, but he nodded. There you go. I think they're ready, Adam. All right.
Starting point is 00:32:36 Seven running backs have had 15 or more carries against the Raiders, and six of them scored double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. That's six out of seven. Now, the problem is they've all had 18 or more. There's been nobody who's had 15, 16, or 17 carries against Oakland. But if you get 18 or more, six of seven have had double-digit fantasy points in standard. The only one that didn't was Samaj P. Ryan back when he was bad.
Starting point is 00:32:56 So how many carries do you expect from Alfred Morris, and is he a start this week? Go. Alfred Morris. 21, yes. 21. Wow, that's a lot. Yeah, I mean... I don't know if I like Dak if Alfred Morris
Starting point is 00:33:11 is getting 21 carries. I think Alfred's okay as a number two running back. Probably closer to the bottom of that than the top. Okay, so Patriots guys or Alfred Morris? Patriots guys. Alfred Morris easily. Yeah, I guys or Alfred Morris? Patriots guys. Alfred Morris easily.
Starting point is 00:33:28 Yeah, I'll take Alfred Morris for the Patriots game. All right. So how about Rod Smith? Not in PPR, though. I've seen him picked up in some leagues. I'll take Rex over Alfred in PPR. Okay. So Rod Smith, any interest in him this week?
Starting point is 00:33:42 He's a boom-bust flex, but it feels a lot like chasing points. Yep. I mean, he has scored in three straight games, but that's hard to say it's going to happen again. And if you're just, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:50 if you're skipping around, I know I put the time codes in the descriptions. If you're skipping around in this game, you hear about Dak Prescott. We talked about him earlier in the show.
Starting point is 00:33:59 Dave and Jamie love Dak. Heath has him 15th. But an extensive conversation about him earlier in the show, just a few minutes in. Starter sit, Des Bryant. You has him 15th. But extensive conversation about him earlier in the show just a few minutes in. Starter sit Des Bryant. You're probably starting him. Why wouldn't you?
Starting point is 00:34:11 Yeah, must start guy. Okay. Jason Witten is around 10th, 11th for Jamie, 9th for Dave, 12th for Heath in both formats. These are his catches in his last six games. 1, 7, 1, seven, one, one. But he has caught a touchdown in two straight games on one catch. Oakland's awful against tight ends. Terrible.
Starting point is 00:34:35 So, I mean, I look at your tight end rankings. It seems like there's probably like eight or nine that you are comfortable with, we might guess. That seems high to me. Well, that's Kyle Rudolph, Jack Doyle, Evan Ingram. I'm not comfortable with Evan Ingram. Yeah, it's hard to be comfortable. And Kyle Rudolph is currently in a walking boot.
Starting point is 00:34:58 All right, so let's go through. Who are you comfortable with? Gronkowski, yes. Ertz, yes. Kelsey, yes. Jimmy Graham. Yes. Delaney Walker. Yeah. Hunter Henry, yes. Kelsey, yes. Jimmy Graham? Yes. Delaney Walker? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:06 Hunter Henry? Yep. Jack Doyle? I am. Yeah. We're approaching the edge, though. And then Kyle Rudolph would be eight. Provided that Rudolph's healthy and practices, then yeah. After that, it seems like
Starting point is 00:35:21 you're just looking for matchups, maybe, and that's where Witten comes in. Is that fair? I'm looking for touchdowns. Which is matchups. To have a decent chance to score a touchdown. Right. That's about it. Okay.
Starting point is 00:35:33 So Witten is in that category. Let's go to the Raiders. By the way, Witten or Jared Cook? Witten. Witten. Okay. They're pretty close in the rankings, though. Dallas has allowed four touchdowns to tight ends in their last six games.
Starting point is 00:35:51 Jared Cook has only been good against the Chiefs, basically, this year. All right, the Raiders. Start or sit Derek Carr? Sit him. Sit. I feel like they can put points in the game. I'm not sure where or how it's going to happen, so it makes me nervous to start Carr.
Starting point is 00:36:08 I can find plenty of quarterbacks that I'd rather take the chance on. Crabtree will play well. It's a matter of who the second guy will be. Bortles or Carr? Bortles. I feel safer with Bortles. Oh, Bortles, easy. Jimmy G or Carr?
Starting point is 00:36:23 G. Jimmy Garoppolo. All right. All right. All right. Starters sit Marshawn Lynch. And Marshawn Lynch or Alfred Morris? Alf easy. Yeah, Morris.
Starting point is 00:36:34 Easy, huh? Marshawn's a borderline number two for me. Oh, how come? Yeah. I mean, the Cowboys with Sean Lee are a much better defense. That's a good point. We saw it last week. If we're right and Alf's a great start and two of us are right and Dak's a great start
Starting point is 00:36:47 and the Raiders fall behind, Marshawn Lynch was awesome last week. He got, what, eight carries? Seven. Seven carries? Seven. He got – he was incredibly lucky. Like anybody who started Marshawn Lynch last week. Or you could look at it as just incredibly dumb by the Raiders.
Starting point is 00:37:02 Yeah, both. I'd say both. It can be both, can't it? Yes, it's right. I mean, that touchdown by Marshawn Lynch is just rare. You don't see him do that these days. Well, he scored three straight games. But how many long touchdowns?
Starting point is 00:37:15 Two. Back-to-back games now, right? Yeah, the Giants game. Like a 51-yard run against the Giants. And what did he have last week? A 27-yard run against the Giants. And I was thinking about the 50-yard run. All right, all right, all right.
Starting point is 00:37:26 It doesn't matter. So that's interesting. Game flow might not be good, and the Cowboys run defense very good with Sean Lee. So maybe you can avoid Marshawn Lynch. We're obviously going to start Keenan Allen. We're going to start Michael Crabtree, excuse me. But actually, it's not that obvious to me. I mean, he's not playing that well. Is it that obvious to you that Michael Crabtree, excuse me. But actually, it's not that obvious to me. I mean, he's not playing that well.
Starting point is 00:37:45 Is it that obvious to you that Michael Crabtree is a start? Yes. Yeah, 13 targets last week. If he gets 13 targets again at home, he's been great at home. So he will have a chance to make a lot of plays. He's a very safe number two receiver. On one hand, I think that Crabtree's due. But at the same time, I'm kind of impressed with this Cowboys secondary,
Starting point is 00:38:05 and I'm pretty unimpressed with Derek Carr. And so if we're not going with Carr and we're going with Crabtree, I feel like there's a disconnect there. I don't understand what you're saying, though, because you keep saying that there are going to be a lot of points from Oakland, but you don't. I don't love Ledge. I don't love Ledge. I don't like Crabtree.
Starting point is 00:38:23 So here's how I feel. I'll just sit in your third. I don't think you actually I don't love Lynch. I don't like Crabtree. So here's how I feel. I'll just sit in your third. I don't think you actually like Dak Prescott, Dave. Well, that's a completely different story, and I do like Dak Prescott. If the Raiders are chasing, maybe I don't think the Raiders are going to put up a lot of points then because I don't love Crabtree. I think Cook is okay as a starter. Carr makes me nervous.
Starting point is 00:38:41 These guys make me nervous. And I think Dallas' defense is going to be a little bit better than people. I think Lynch will score. I think Crabtree will score. I think they will find their way to 20 points with two field goals and two touchdowns. Carr will not have a great game. Lynch will not have a great game, but Lynch is still startable. And then I think you'll see Dak put up 250-2 with somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 rushing yards.
Starting point is 00:39:03 Okay. Wrapping on that game. Atlanta is at Tampa Bay. Your stat of the game in... Oh, I gave this one. It's about Mohamed Sanu. The six Tampa Bay home games thing. They've done very well against number two wide receivers. Let's go to a different stat of the game. Backup stat
Starting point is 00:39:18 of the game. About Matt Ryan. Top 12 for you guys. 12th for Jamie. 11th for Dave. 7th for Heath. Matt Ryan, who has not scored more than 22 fantasy points all season. The Buccaneers allow the most passing yards per game in the NFL, but they don't allow a lot of touchdowns. And no quarterback in their last eight games has scored more than 22 fantasy points, which isn't really that great.
Starting point is 00:39:40 It might get you in the top 10, though. It probably will. Only three in their last eight games have scored more than 18 fantasy points against the Buccaneers. And in that stretch, Matt Ryan scored 18 fantasy points just a few weeks ago. So it's just a matter of can they throw touchdowns because they give up a ton of yards. Is it going to happen this way? Matt Ryan is so frustrating, so frustrating.
Starting point is 00:40:03 But you guys all have him in the top 12. Heath, you have the most confidence in Matt Ryan, so convince me. I think this Tampa Bay defense, specifically the pass defense, is absolute garbage. And I do think he's going to throw for a ton of yards. And I know that this year specifically, Matt Ryan has thrown for a bunch of yards a lot of times and not gotten the touchdowns. And Tampa Bay bay's defense especially here over the last couple of weeks have given up a bunch of yards and not given up the touchdowns i just don't think that's a trend that continues if you think matt ryan's gonna throw for over 300 yards which seems pretty likely
Starting point is 00:40:39 to me then i think you have to like him for two touchdowns and if he throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns that's a top 10 quarterback he did that in each of two games last year against Tampa Bay and last year was the first time in his career when he went to Tampa Bay and had over 20 fantasy points and last year was just a charmed year for Matt Ryan we've talked about how great he was and how in sync he was with the offense how well the offensive line played and this year just hasn't been the same. So I'm a little worried about Matt Ryan. So I'm still keeping him in as a starting option,
Starting point is 00:41:13 but one that just he hasn't delivered a big game yet this year. He's had chances to do it. He's had matchups to do it, and he hasn't come through. One of those matchups was a couple weeks ago against these Bucs, and he had over 300 yards, and he still had only one touchdown. And it's frustrating and i i just i i can't catch the knife and say that week 15 is going to be when he finally breaks out for a 27 to 30 fantasy point i think he could yeah but i agree that that's why i haven't ranked 12 the the two concerns i have are one there's enough of a track record of what he's done
Starting point is 00:41:43 that to what your your point is dave it's a little somewhat risky to trust him at this point in the season. The other part of it is if Joe McCoy doesn't play, this run defense is going to look even worse than it has all season. And Devontae Freeman can destroy this team without Ryan having to do much. I don't think they're going to be chasing points, so I don't think, you know, you want to talk about volume passing. I don't think you're going to get a volume passing game from Matt Ryan because I don't think the Bucs offense is going to be very good. So I could see this being a run, sit on a lead type of
Starting point is 00:42:10 game for him. He can even get... He may get two touchdowns easily, but I don't see him getting a lot of yards this game. That's my concern. Like a 162... No, I think it'll be around two and two. 200 yards and two touchdowns? That's 20. I think he's in that range. He's been close? That's 20. I think he's in that range.
Starting point is 00:42:26 I think he's in that range. That's what I'm saying. I think his floor is about 18 points, which is what he's been. I don't see his ceiling being 25 plus. I think if you're comparing ceilings, I think Dak has a much higher ceiling this week. We'd be asking Ryan to do something he hasn't done all year, which is score more than 22 fantasy points. Would you start
Starting point is 00:42:41 Case Keenum or Ryan? I love Keenum. I like Keenum much better. Bortles or Ryan? Ryan. Bortles. Ryan. I think Bortles could have the same thing happen to him. Finally, Stafford or Ryan? The Texas Ever Run defense.
Starting point is 00:42:57 I haven't shown it lately. What's that? Stafford or Ryan? I'll take Stafford as a foul. All right. Devontae Freeman would be an absolute stud if Tevin Coleman doesn't play. If Tevin Coleman does, Stafford. All right, Devontae Freeman would be an absolute stud if Tevin Coleman doesn't play. If Tevin Coleman does play, do you feel comfortable starting Devontae Freeman, who finally had a good game last week and he got the work? Yes. Comfortable?
Starting point is 00:43:13 Of course. Well, the guy had been getting 12 carries per game. Until last week. Until last week. They'll give him 18 plus carries this week. Okay, well then if that happens, he will have a monster game. I would honestly feel worse about Ryan if Coleman plays. Right, because they can run it even more.
Starting point is 00:43:30 Okay, start Julio Jones. Mohamed Sanu, we talked about him. The one thing I think that favors Mohamed Sanu is that, you know, I mentioned how the number two wide receivers haven't done that well against Tampa Bay and Tampa Bay home games, but in some of those games there's been a running back who's done very well in the passing game, and that might not happen with this Falcons team.
Starting point is 00:43:48 They don't really involve their running backs as much as they should. Austin Hooper, Jason Witten. Witten. Witten. Witten. I do have a funny feeling about Hooper. I'm not really ranking him quite that way, but after seeing that there must have been something on film that the Lions
Starting point is 00:44:06 liked to target Eric Ebron as much as they did last week. And I wonder if the Falcons follow suit. Okay, so Austin Hooper or Cameron Brate? Hooper. Hooper. Okay. O.J. Howard. Howard or
Starting point is 00:44:22 Hooper? Hooper. Hooper? Hooper. Hooper. All right. Jameis Winston or Matt Ryan? Ryan. Ryan. Yep.
Starting point is 00:44:32 All right. So we don't love Jameis Winston this week. He's 15th or 14th for our guys. I'll tell you what. I think he's part of the reason why Mike Evans is not doing Mike Evans things. If you go back and you watch the game last week and the week before, they're off target. Here's something crazy. Since Winston's come back, he's completing, I want to say, 67% of his passes, but only 33% of the passes to Mike Evans.
Starting point is 00:44:55 They miscommunicated on one route. Other passes were just way off the mark. Evans drew a defensive pass interference call. He had an end zone target. I don't think the problem is all on Evans. I think there's something wrong with Jameis throwing to Evans and really throwing to the sidelines. And I don't know if that gets corrected so soon. It might be something I'll have to talk about with some of my quarterback friends. Okay. Are we sitting the Tampa Bay running backs?
Starting point is 00:45:24 Yes. Okay. I don't have any confidence in how they're going to roll them out But Dirk Cutter said there's going to be a rotation If you had to pick one, who would it be? Barber He's been better I know that Martin scored last week Barber looks better Alright, and then as far as the wide receivers go
Starting point is 00:45:40 We're sitting Mike Evans, right? We talked about this yesterday, so let's sum it up kind of quickly here Yeah, I'll sum it up kind of quickly here. Yeah, I'll sum it up really quickly. He's never caught a high percentage of his targets. It's even lower right now, and he's not getting a ton of targets. He's a lottery ticket as a number three wide receiver at best. Yeah, 11 targets last week.
Starting point is 00:45:56 It's awful. I think they try and correct that this week, and they give him more targets. And I can't help myself. I still have him as a low end number two receiver. All right. Jordy Nelson or Mike Evans? Jordy Mike Wallace or Mike Evans? Wallace
Starting point is 00:46:11 I don't think Evans Two Evans and a Wallace And we're sitting with Sean Jackson right? Yep Try to And OJ Howard Not really feeling it with him this week? No.
Starting point is 00:46:28 Falcons DST, though. Seventh for Jamie and Dave, tenth for Heath. And you can go with them. Tampa Bay's allowed ten sacks in their last two games. The two teams that have fewer sacks than the Falcons this year, so it could be a lot of sacks. Yeah, and maybe one other issue for Jameis and why he's not playing well is the offensive line not
Starting point is 00:46:46 being even close to full strength because starters are missing. And that pocket is going to collapse on Jameis. Yep, okay. Alright, we got a few more games left. We got Houston at Jacksonville. Your stat of the game from Tripsavvy.com. Elvis Presley performed his first indoor concert
Starting point is 00:47:02 in Jacksonville in 1957. Presley's show was monitored by a judge to ensure his hip shaking didn't get too racy. How about that? Wow. I mean, things really haven't changed in the world, have they? Have you ever gone on Halloween as Elvis Presley? I feel like you could kind of pull that off. Me?
Starting point is 00:47:20 You got the hair kind of going on today. Today I do. I have major bedhead today. I was unaware of it until I got on Skype with these guys. They quickly made me aware of it. Are you going to shave today? No. Are you going to just wait until tomorrow?
Starting point is 00:47:30 Wait until tomorrow. I might shave tonight when I shower before I go to bed like clean people do. Starter sitting Lamar Miller. Lamar Miller, seven straight games with 51 to 61 rushing yards. Is he just going to get you eight fantasy points? Yep. I'll take the under. Yeah, I feel like that's
Starting point is 00:47:45 closer to a ceiling this week. He'll probably get you seven this week. Seven or eight. I guess ceiling ranges from seven to nine. Yeah, the Jaguars haven't been great on a per carry basis the last two weeks, but Telvin Smith has missed those games, and he's
Starting point is 00:48:01 clear from the concussion protocol. Right, so he's going to play. That makes it hard. And starting running backs have been held to nine fantasy points or less and five straight against Jacksonville. That's what Miller had back in week one, nine fantasy points. I gave the stats yesterday, but DeAndre Hopkins, he scored against Jacksonville in week one. There's been three receivers with double-digit targets against Jacksonville. They've all had good games. He's been good in every tough matchup, so you're starting DeAndre Hopkins,
Starting point is 00:48:26 and you're not starting Steven Alexander. Blake Bortles. Blake Bortles, guys, three straight games with 22 or more fantasy points. Houston allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Who are some guys you would start Bortles over? Alex Smith. Kirk Cousins. Carr.
Starting point is 00:48:48 Mariota. Goff. Goff. Keenum. Winston. Prescott. Oh, boy. I'm worried about game script for Bortles.
Starting point is 00:48:57 I will submit that he has been playing very good. I just don't know how much he's going to have to throw. If Jacksonville gets away from what they've been doing, they are idiots. Let him throw early. He looks so comfortable. He looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback. And you're still running the ball with a ton of success. Okay.
Starting point is 00:49:17 I'm not sitting Leonard Fournette ever again. And Houston, as Dave has been talking about, has been a little leaky against the run. Last three weeks, Alex Collins, 12 fantasy points, and Buck Allen scored. Derrick Henry, 16 fantasy points to Marco Murray, averaged six yards per carry. Carlos Hyde, big game with 13 fantasy points.
Starting point is 00:49:34 So whatever's going on there, running backs have had more success lately against Houston. The Jacksonville wide receivers, how many of them are startable? Two. Yep. Lee and Deedee? Yep. Lee, okay.
Starting point is 00:49:48 Lee is like, let me see where he is in the rankings. I'm assuming quite high. I've got him as a low-end number two. I think I have the two of them back-to-back. I have him on 20th. They're in the low 20s. Okay, so Lee or Golden Tate? Lee.
Starting point is 00:50:07 I'll take Lee. Yeah, I think I'll take Tate. All right, Lee or – I see they're back-to-back for Heath. Lee or Smith-Schuster? Lee. Both Jaguars are with Smith-Schuster. I agree. Are you concerned that Houston has allowed more than six fantasy points in standard scoring leagues to a second wide receiver only three times this season?
Starting point is 00:50:33 It's usually the number ones that just destroy them. They do pretty well against number twos. I think these guys are like either you could say co-number ones or co-number twos with how the targets have been spread about lately. Lee is clearly the better player, at least you would expect him to be. But I think both these guys are – I don't expect 15-plus from both of them. I'm expecting eight or nine points from both of them. Yeah, I don't think there really is anymore a number one in Jacksonville.
Starting point is 00:51:02 There's a pair of 1As. Okay. I guess that's why Lee isn't top 12. I would not be surprised if Westbrook has a better day. Alright then. He did last week. And the Jacksonville DST. He has more times than not in the last month.
Starting point is 00:51:15 Jacksonville, well that's true. Jacksonville DST is 23-17 I think. Yeah, 33-27. I'm sorry. I was a tenth off. Jacksonville DST is number one for all three of our analysts 10 sacks in the first meeting that's when they became Saxonville and Mercedes Lewis is a total flyer but he's outside the top 20 Houston's been bad against
Starting point is 00:51:36 tight ends lately Chargers are at the Chiefs big big game Heath you pumped up no I'm more pumped up for my fantasies in my finals okay that's pretty sad that's that's sad well wait a minute isn't this a game that's basically for first place in the afc west uh-huh basically it is and basically for a playoff spot right and you're not pumped up come on you're losing your fan i think that no i think that everyone in this on this conversation can probably agree except for, that the longer that you do what we do, the more the fandom gets
Starting point is 00:52:09 eroded. That's true. I would still like for the Chiefs to win. I'll be very happy if they win a Super Bowl someday, but when the Chiefs game's on and there's 12 games on the TV, I'm still on Red Zone or a different game most of the time. So you would care if the Chiefs win a Super Bowl? Oh, I would care for sure.
Starting point is 00:52:26 Would you care, Jamie, if the Dolphins won a Super Bowl? I haven't been a Dolphins fan for 20 years, buddy. And I don't care if the Bears win a Super Bowl. I think you'd care a little bit. Adam, however. Well, yes, Adam would run naked. Adam would run from his house all the way to MetLife Stadium in his MeUndies if the Giants win a Super Bowl. He'd be at the game.
Starting point is 00:52:43 Wow, that's a tough one. I think I would. That's an expensive trip, but I might have to. Okay, Chargers and Chiefs, here's your stat of the game. Kansas City has allowed six touchdown passes in their last six games. Only two quarterbacks have scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Chiefs in their last six games. And the two who did that relied on some rushing totals.
Starting point is 00:53:04 None of them had more than 21 fantasy points without rushing totals, which you're not going to get from Phillip Rivers. So you guys have Rivers really, really high. Are you at all concerned about him this week? Yes. Because of that stat? No, because of just his track record and arrowhead. Same thing with Derek Carr's track record and arrowhead.
Starting point is 00:53:20 Now, clearly Rivers is playing much better than Carr. I feel like there could be a little bit of a letdown game coming for him. Not that he's going to be awful, but I do think that this could be right around 20 points as opposed to 25 plus. Well, I think it's important to look at those last six quarterbacks. Yeah, it is. It's Trevor Simeon. It's Dak when his offensive line was bad. It's Eli in the wind game. His offensive line was bad. It's Eli in the wind game.
Starting point is 00:53:47 His offensive line was fine. It was in the L.A. game. Okay. It was the very next game? Okay. That was the game before L.A. was. And then it's Derek Carr at Arrowhead and Tyrod. Dak did well, though.
Starting point is 00:53:58 He was one of the guys that did well, but he had a rushing touchdown. He's there for 249 yards and two touchdowns. Okay, so yeah, he was one of the two that did well. All right, well, Rivers or Rodgers? Rivers. Rivers. I'll take Rodgers. All right, Jamie's got him sixth.
Starting point is 00:54:12 Dave and Heath have Rivers third. Melvin Gordon must start? Yep. Yep. Any interest in Austin Eckler? Nope. How desperate am I for a warm body at running back? Who's a better flyer, Rod Smith or Austin Eckler?
Starting point is 00:54:28 Smith. Smith. Okay. Any interest in a wide receiver for the Chargers not named Keenan Allen? Nope. No. One of them will probably score a long touchdown, but I don't know which one it'll be. That will certainly help Rivers.
Starting point is 00:54:40 He's going to need that second guy. Well, it could be Hunter Henry. Another one that makes me a little nervous, too. Right. Yeah, I was going to say, I know Jared Cook had a good game against the Chiefs last week, but they've been very good against tight ends. But I feel like you just have to start Hunter Henry. 100% you have to start him.
Starting point is 00:54:55 Yeah. If you have Henry and, like, Jimmy Graham or, you know, one of the – Delaney Walker you could start over Henry, I assume? Oh, yeah. You could. Tonight, Jack Doyle or Hunter Henry? Doyle. I'll take Henry.
Starting point is 00:55:08 I'll take Henry. Okay. You can take Doyle and PPR. Alex Smith, we have talked about. Heath is the highest on him. Jamie's got, I think it's 14th, 12th, and 7th for Jamie David. No, I dropped him to 16th. 16th, 12th, and 7th for Jamie David.
Starting point is 00:55:20 Heath on Alex Smith. And again, no quarterback has scored 20 points against the Chargers since week one. Trevor Simeon did it with a rushing touchdown. Are you sure that I have him seventh? Ninth? Maybe ninth? Ninth sounds better. Yeah, I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:55:31 Are you moving him down in your mind? Are you starting to? Ninth. Well, if I had him seventh, I was certainly moving him down. Now you have him ninth. I'm sorry. I'll take another look at it. Get a real idea of how.
Starting point is 00:55:41 And he got 18 points against them. I think that's probably about where he'll be. And Kareem Hunt, 25 carries, 116 yards, and a touchdown last week following five straight games with seven or fewer fantasy points. I mean, we talked about this earlier. So, again, this is something you need to rewind to. Earlier in the show, we did the stats that might matter, and the Chargers have been much better against running backs.
Starting point is 00:56:01 But you all have Hunt. It was like around 15th or so. So he's 13th. Oh, no, he's the highest. Got him 9th in standard. 13th, 14th, and 9th in standard and similar in PPR. I think I just expect more points to be scored in this game, it sounds like. Fair enough.
Starting point is 00:56:20 So Kareem Hunt or Alex Collins? Collins. Collins. Kareem Hunt or Jordan Collins? Collins. Collins. Kareem Hunt or Jordan Howard? Howard. All right. Howard's playing the Lions. Yes, he is.
Starting point is 00:56:32 I think this is terrible against the Lions. So how can you not be a little nervous about Tyree Kill? He had seven fantasy points last week. It was his best home game of the season. And we know how good the Chargers are. Only one wide receiver scored double-digit fantasy points against the Chargers in their last seven games. So how can you not be nervous about Tyron?
Starting point is 00:56:52 Sure. You just feel like you have to start him? There is upside. You have to admit it. We haven't seen it from him at home yet this year. How was he at home last year? I don't know if that really even matters. The home road thing to me is more of a fun
Starting point is 00:57:06 stat than it is something for like a wide receiver being bad at home is not something i'm really factoring into no it coincides with the quarterback and alex smith hasn't been as good at home right i don't think alex smith is just worse at arrowhead like something about arrowhead is making him play quarterback bad i know i don't think there's're... It's been game flow. It's been the opponents. It's been circumstantial. But last week, he was awesome. He had three touchdowns called back. But this is a tough opponent.
Starting point is 00:57:34 But none of them to Tyreek. Some of it is circumstantial. I mean, Tyreek Hill hasn't played well at home for whatever reason. So it's also that I think their defense plays better at home. Des Bryant or Tyreek Hill? Des. Tyreek. Jamie, you said Des?
Starting point is 00:57:51 Yes, sir. Okay. Oh, we got a sir. How about that? I mean, it's not a great matchup for Travis Kelsey, but you're starting Travis Kelsey, who had one catch for one yard in the first meeting. Maybe you don't play him in daily. I'm thinking he goes over that this week.
Starting point is 00:58:07 Probably. Chargers DST is eighth for Dave and Jamie and 14th for Heath. So it's just clear Heath sees this game going a little bit differently than Dave and Jamie do. Baltimore is at Cleveland. We've got two games left. We've got this one, and we have the Dolphins and the Bills. So Baltimore at Cleveland.
Starting point is 00:58:22 Last five number one wide receivers against Baltimore. This is your stat of the game. Rashard Matthews, 13 points. Devonta Adams, 12. Hopkins, 12. Marvin Jones, 9. Antonio Brown, 21. All of them had 70 or more yards.
Starting point is 00:58:35 Four of them had 90 or more yards. But the Ravens have allowed just five touchdowns to wide receivers this year. Bottom line, though, Josh Gordon looks like a really good start this week. Would you start Josh Gordon or Tyreek Hill? Gordon. Gordonordon i'm a low guy on gordon i'll say hill i i think really with the ravens you gotta throw out their their previous stats because their secondary is all shuffled around yeah i'm not worried about the ravens defense with gordon i'm just worried about his quarterback but number one wide receivers we're putting up pretty decent numbers against the ravens with jimmy smith yeah and now j now Jimmy Smith is gone. He's replaced by a rookie.
Starting point is 00:59:05 I think it's going to get worse for them, much worse. Do you think it's fair to judge Kaiser prior to getting Gordon and Coleman healthy? Because that stretch of games that his numbers are – Well, what I'd say is that he completes about 45% of his passes to receivers. Right. But I just want to look at the last two games because I think that's when he's had his complete receiving core. One of those was against one of, if not the best, but one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, his Chargers.
Starting point is 00:59:33 Yeah. And the other was the last game. Against a depleted Packers defense. Against a depleted Packers defense. That's really the only sample size I care about, to be honest with you. Well, those two games he's completed 40% to Gordon. That's really the only sample size I care about, to be honest with you. Well, those two games, he's completed 40% to Gordon. That's about 40% of his passes so far.
Starting point is 00:59:50 The more appropriate thing to do is just look at what Josh Gordon has done in his two games. He's had two good games. You have him 22nd, Heath. Dave and Jamie have him top 12. Right, but I know your whole argument is Kaiser, and I don't think it's fair to judge Kaiser pre- week 13. Okay, so if we're just using the sample size of what he's done to Judge Kaiser pre-week 13. Okay.
Starting point is 01:00:05 So if we're just using the sample size of what he's done with Gordon, then I expect him to complete about 40% of his passes to Josh Gordon. 40% to 50%. I think that's fair. So if he's going to get 10 targets, four to five catches. And Adam, he has had two very good games. He's the number 18 wide receiver over that time. So that's about what I expect.
Starting point is 01:00:24 Okay. That is fine. He has one touchdown in those two games. I just think, you know, I'm just looking at what the last five number ones have done. They've all been very good, except for Rashard Matthews. He's solid. He's not really the number one guy. He is
Starting point is 01:00:40 their number one guy. He's their number one guy, but he's not really a number one guy. Okay, so that's Josh Gordon. Josh Gordon better than Mike Wallace, though? Yeah. Yes. Josh Gordon's his number one receiver. Well, for Heath.
Starting point is 01:00:54 I was really asking Heath. Yeah, no. I think Josh Gordon's a number two receiver. You think Wallace is better than Gordon? I think Wallace is a number two receiver, too. Wallace has a better matchup. I don't know if he has a better matchup. I think I just made a pretty compelling case that he doesn't.
Starting point is 01:01:06 I understand the Ravens are not a difficult matchup anymore, but the Browns are an awesome matchup. I think both are, and I think we like Wallace a lot, so that's fine. Who's going to get more targets? Is Jimmy Macklin okay? Assume Macklin plays. I don't even know if he's on the underport. So assume Macklin plays.
Starting point is 01:01:24 Who's going to get more targets between Wallace and Gordon? Because Gordon and Coleman got the same number last week. Gordon got his welcome back game just like Coleman did two weeks ago. But after that, they didn't go to him. Can I speed it up? They were going after Josh Gordon early, and then that defense changed how they game planned against Cleveland. All right, let me speed it up. I think we're spinning our wheels a bit.
Starting point is 01:01:44 Joe Flacco, you guys have him about 20th. He's got an opportunity for 20 fantasy points. I talked about that earlier. Alex Collins is an absolute must start. Start us at Danny Woodhead. Sit. Cut. Cut Danny Woodhead.
Starting point is 01:02:01 Mike Wallace is 53% owned. He's got a really good opportunity in this game. Mike Wallace or D.D. Westbrook? I like Wallace better. I'll take D.D. I'll take Wallace. Mike Wallace or Kareem Hunt? Hunt.
Starting point is 01:02:18 Hunt. How do you feel about the Cleveland running backs? Vicky? Yeah. Hard to love them. Hard to trust them. Crowell, probably better in standard than PPR. Crowell's a flex in standard.
Starting point is 01:02:35 Duke's a flex in PPR. All right, then Gordon's really the only must-start guy for the Browns, and the Ravens' DST is awesome. Top three. Or it's third for Jamie, sixth for Dave, second for Heath. Our final game is Miami at Buffalo. Do you think there's sleeper appeal in either quarterback? Would you start either quarterback over Joe Flacco?
Starting point is 01:02:53 It would be Cutler and Tyrod Taylor. I love the way Cutler's been playing in these games where he's played four quarters and he's put up multiple touchdowns, and it's nice to see. I think it's a tough matchup for him, and I think this is a game the Dolphins can win with the run. Kenyon Drake is a top five running back. You're going to start him over almost every running back this week. Yeah, I had him outside of my top five to start the week
Starting point is 01:03:17 and can't do it anymore. That Bill's run defense is just so terrible. And I don't see a situation where the Dolphins get away from using Drake. They allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Is Jarvis Lancher the only Dolphins receiver you're starting? He's the only one I'm comfortable starting. Yep. Julius Thomas is outside the top 12.
Starting point is 01:03:36 Tyrod Taylor is a sit. I'll come back to LaShawn McCoy. Are there any Buffalo-wide receivers that you like this week? No. I think the Dolphins defense is starting to step it up. How do you feel about Charles Clay? Are there any Buffalo-wide receivers that you like this week? No. No. Okay. I think the Dolphins' defense is starting to step it up. How do you feel about Charles Clay?
Starting point is 01:03:50 I like him okay. I say no way. Yeah. I think Clay is a good streaming option this week. You missed an opportunity for a rhyme there, Jamie. Clay or Cook? Cook. Cook. Jamie's always been more of a jazz man than an MC That's true
Starting point is 01:04:10 Clay Alright, so LeSean McCoy has one game this year with double-digit fantasy points without 20 carries He also has just 10 catches in his last 7 games combined And one game with more than 12 receiving guards in those 7 games But this is a good matchup. How comfortable are you with LaShawn McCoy this week? You're starting him. There's doubt?
Starting point is 01:04:31 I mean, here's the thing. Like, yes, you're starting him, but we are talking about the final four in most leagues. So you might have Alex Collins. You might have Kenyon Drake. I'd start Drake and Collins over McCoy. I'll start Drake over McCoy. Not Collins? I agree with Heath. I would start Drake and Collins over McCoy. I'll start Drake over McCoy. Not Collins? I agree with Heath.
Starting point is 01:04:46 I would start Drake and Collins over McCoy. Collins has been amazing. Would you start Mark Ingram over the Sean McCoy? Yes. Yep. Latavius Murray or the Sean McCoy? McCoy. Come on.
Starting point is 01:04:57 No, don't come on me. McCoy. McCoy. Okay, fine. I would too. All right, B-Undies these we'll talk to you later we got the nmc areas adam we got uh the nmc home games tomorrow take care everybody we'll uh we'll recap the thursday night game and good luck good luck in week 15 let's get a win. See you later. Bye.

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