Fantasy Football Today - 12/14: Start or Sit (NFC); Sleepers at Each Position (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 14, 2018

What a game! We react to LAC's big win on the road, the gutsy decision to go for two, Mike Williams' breakout, the replacement RBs and everything else from this game ... News and notes (8:55), who we'...re nervous about starting this week (14:30), sleepers with upside at each position (22:00) and Beat the Waiver Wire (25:25) ... NO-CAR (27:50), SEA-SF (34:50), MIA-MIN (43:15), GB-CHI (48:15), ARI-ATL (55:30), TEN-NYG (1:00:00), PHI-LAR (1:05:15) ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! Get your lineup set. It's time for Start or Sit. Let's go! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and T. What a game. Not even going to waste any time.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Did you like the decision to go for two? Be honest. When it happened, did you like the decision? When it happened, I did not like it. But when I realized, you don't want me to get into it. At the time, no. But once I realized something, then I was okay. You can get into it.
Starting point is 00:00:38 You can get into it. Go. So from what I understand, like the Chargers were a win away. It didn't matter who they beat. They were a win away from making the playoffs anyway. So if they won this game against Kansas City, they would obviously be in a much better position to have a bye in the first round. Potentially the number one seed in the AFC.
Starting point is 00:00:57 So if you're two yards away, you go for it in that case. I don't think it was like, you make this and you're the number one seed, and if you miss this, you're out of the playoffs. I don't think it was that big of a deal. But I did think their defense played better in the second half. So right in the moment, I was thinking, why would you do this when your defense has been playing pretty well? Anthony Lynn said after the game that he told Ken Wisenhunt
Starting point is 00:01:19 when they got the ball back, if we score, we're going for two. So he had it in his mind, regardless, that they were trying to win the game. Yeah, Rivers was going to the sideline, and he thought they were going to kick the extra point. And then he saw them and said, no, go for two. I loved it. I thought it was a great decision. Can I tell you, though, I thought when he went to the – I'm sorry.
Starting point is 00:01:35 I thought when they initially said on the broadcast that they kept the offense out there that it was because they thought that Williams didn't secure the ball. I thought it was a great decision. I mean, that's your opportunity to go win that game. I don't want to take my chance and give the ball back to Patrick Mahomes. So, well done. And you know what? I saw people make an argument.
Starting point is 00:01:52 This is the best win of any team this season. Just because it was a fourth quarter two-score comeback? Two-score comeback. They hadn't lost at home. They've obviously owned them for years. I think it was, what, nine straight games that Rivers has lost to them. They're down Melvin Gordon. They lose Keenan Allen in the first quarter.
Starting point is 00:02:11 With all due respect, it was the second best win because the Miami Magic City Magic has to be number one. Magic City Magic. That was the best ending. I don't know if that's necessarily the best win.
Starting point is 00:02:25 If the Dolphins end up making the playoffs, it might be. That was the best ending. I don't know if that's necessarily the best win. It was a huge game. If the Dolphins end up making the playoffs, it might be. But, no, look, it's a great argument. And Troy Aikman gave his stat early in the game. I don't remember what it is, but just about all the double-digit deficit comebacks that Philip Rivers has orchestrated. What an awesome game. I mean, what a great way to start the week. He may have won the MVP last night.
Starting point is 00:02:42 No. Really? If they have the one seed. Yeah. Mahomes is... I don't think so. It's hard to take it from Mahomes right now. But if they end up with the one seed and the Chiefs are the wild card,
Starting point is 00:02:54 it's very difficult to say that the MVP is for the wild card. I agree. I don't care about that. But you're right. A lot of people do. But from a fantasy standpoint, it's so funny. You guys should have seen me when Justin Jackson scored that touchdown. I know what you were doing.
Starting point is 00:03:10 Oh, it was like the Giants, Knicks, Yankees, and Hurricanes all won the Super Bowl at the same time. I was so happy. My wife told me to shut up because she was on the phone. Adam texted me last night. Justin Jackson is a terrible running back. Something like that. When he was struggling, when he didn't have the score. Then after he scored, he goes, he's the terrible running back. Something like that. When he was struggling, when he didn't have the score. Then after he scored, he goes, he's the best running back.
Starting point is 00:03:30 What did I say? I said, gosh, I don't remember. He's exceptional. That's what I said. He's exceptional. He could have had such a good game, and all he did was hop around. It's like, dude, just run straight. Just go. He tripped on that one screen that he probably could have had such a good game, and all he did was hop around. It's like, dude, just run straight. Just go.
Starting point is 00:03:46 He tripped on that one screen that he probably could have. I mean, they said on the broadcast they thought he could have scored, but he left a lot of yards there. And he was underthrown on a wheel route late in the game. But you know what? You guys must have felt good because you had to be – I know a lot of people emailed us. I respond to the emails a lot, and I recommended Jackson and Damian Williams a ton.
Starting point is 00:04:06 I know you guys did too. It must have been a nice feeling that those two ended up with good games. Whoever started them is going to be pretty happy about it. I did a radio show at 545 yesterday, and literally it was 20 questions in a row about Damian Williams. To the point where the host goes, I can't ask you any more Damian Williams questions. It was like that much. I don't think I've ever seen anything like that with one particular player. And he came through. What a great game Damian Williams had. So Damian Williams had 10 carries, 49 yards, two touchdowns and six catches for 74 yards, 23 non-PPR, 29 PPR fantasy points. He led the team in receiving with 74 yards.
Starting point is 00:04:47 Meanwhile, Justin Jackson had 16 carries, 58 yards, and a touchdown, three catches, 27 yards, 13 non-PPR, 16 PPR fantasy points. Obviously, Keenan Allen's injury is huge and very disappointing. Did not have a catch. Rivers ends up with more fantasy points than Mahomes. One more. Is that the worst almost touchdown of the season? Keenan Allen? Yeah. not have a catch. Rivers ends up with more fantasy points than Mahomes. One more. Is that the worst almost touchdown of the season?
Starting point is 00:05:08 Keenan Allen? Yeah. Yeah. A lot of superlatives in this game. Do you have any takeaways? It was a great week to face Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelsey. Adam, you and I have had children within the last year. We should change their last name to Williams. Yeah. How about Mike Williams, man?
Starting point is 00:05:27 Three touchdowns, one rushing. I was waiting for you to get to him. I don't think he has anywhere close to this kind of a game if Keenan Allen stays healthy. Right. I think that goes without saying, but it just shows you what his potential is. You've got to kind of be a little bit frustrated as a fantasy fan and as a Chargers fan. Like, why don't they feature him a little more? Like, he should get
Starting point is 00:05:48 an end zone target every game. Oh, I don't care about that. I mean, give him 8 to 10 targets every week. I don't know how much of a playmaker he is as far as after the cast. Did you watch the game? Of course I watched the game. Then you see how good of a playmaker he is. Yeah, he was making lots of great plays, but I
Starting point is 00:06:04 thought that he was more of just a giant that you use in the run. No, you use him all over the field. No, the rushing touchdown was exactly probably what you're talking about. That was one of many great plays that he had. But I know him for being that type of guy. Well, I think one of the reasons— They should use him as such. Not only Keenan Allen out, but also Melvin Gordon out,
Starting point is 00:06:24 Gordon being a big part of their passing game. And only three catches for Justin Jackson. Let's go through to the running backs. Yeah, I mean, Melvin Gordon averages 4.4 catches per game. Okay, so Jackson had three, and how many did Newsom have? Newsom had two. I don't know how many Eckler averages. Eckler on a good week has five.
Starting point is 00:06:44 All right, so I don't know. Yeah, Mike Williams is great. And he was started in 35% of leagues. And you look at start percentage now, you really don't know what it means. Because it could be somebody who started Mike Williams two weeks ago was eliminated from the playoffs. And that still counts as in start percentage. But I still thought 35% was kind of high. Luckily, I did not play against Mike Williams.
Starting point is 00:07:04 I benched him in one league. I benched him in one league. You benched him in one? Who could blame you? For Chris Conley. Oh. All right. I mean, I think there's really not much else to say. Next week, the Chargers get Baltimore.
Starting point is 00:07:21 The Ravens. And who do the Chiefs have next week? I don't know why. At Seattle. All right. So that's a good match the Chiefs have next week? I don't know why. At Seattle. All right, so that's a good matchup for Mahomes because he's been good but not great in a lot of his tough matchups. Next week's the season for those two teams in terms of who's going to win the division
Starting point is 00:07:35 because I think they both went easy in Week 17. Chargers at Denver and Oakland for Kansas City. Who has the tiebreaker right now? Kansas City. Okay. That loss to Denver is looming large for the Chargers. and Oakland for Kansas City. Who has the tiebreaker right now? Kansas City. Okay. So they still need to win more. That loss to Denver is looming large for the Chargers. Had they won that game, which they should have,
Starting point is 00:07:51 they'd have a better record and would be on top of them. Real quick email from Ryan. Dear Adam and team, I've held my tongue through so many bad food takes through both the football and baseball podcasts. Quote, sushi is bad from Adam, despite admitting never trying sushi. That's not true. I've had sushi.
Starting point is 00:08:08 But in a state of depression owning Keenan Allen, I can hold my tongue no more. Pickles are delicious. If you don't want them on your cheeseburger, leave them off your cheeseburger. What did pickles ever do to you? They're the worst. They just destroy food. You're the worst. If they're on food and you don't like pickles
Starting point is 00:08:25 that's it game over because they've seeped into the bread you can't just remove them you're the worst they're evil i can't believe it took keenan allen getting hurt for him to have the nerve to tell you that your food takes on i did a twitter poll uh let's put this to a twitter poll how do you feel about pickles not fried pickle just regular A, they're good slash great. B, neutral. C, I hate pickles so much. 61% they're good, great. 18% neutral. 21% I hate pickles so much. So 21% of the world is wrong.
Starting point is 00:08:56 All right, news and notes. Beckham, quad. He says his quad is not right. That's the clean version of what Odell Beckham said. Yeah, he's not playing. Doesn't seem that way. That's the clean version of what Odell Beckham said. Yeah, he's not playing. Doesn't seem that way. That's disappointing. How do you feel about Sterling Shepard?
Starting point is 00:09:11 How would you compare him to, let's say, like, Cortland Sutton? Those are Saturday guys. Cortland Sutton. I'm thinking from the Beckham owner who might have to make a decision on Saturday, you know? He's better than, I think, any of those guys. Probably not named DeAndre Hopkins. Robbie Anderson. Yeah, I'd say he's in the conversation with Jarvis Landry.
Starting point is 00:09:34 Yeah, he's right on the fence of a number two fantasy receiver. All right. Carson Wentz has a fractured vertebrae, so I don't think he's playing. He might be out for the year. Isaiah Crowell and Quincy Anunera are out this week for the Jets. James Conner could play without practicing. That is a big pain in the butt for us.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Yeah, he's not going to play. He doesn't practice. Okay. I would be surprised if he played. Steven Ridley's pumped to face his former team. I know we all like revenge games. Does that give you any bit of a thought to downgrade James Conner? Well, James Conner's not going to play.
Starting point is 00:10:08 To downgrade Jalen Sanders. Yeah, no. But we did see Brandon Bolden come through with the ultimate revenge game last week. Dion Lewis didn't have great stats when he played against the Patriots, but he had a revenge game of his own. A revenge win for him. They are facing all of their discarded running backs. I know.
Starting point is 00:10:28 This is what happens when you break up. How did LeGarrette Blount do? I don't think he did that well. I think he did do okay, actually. I think he had five touchdowns. Five touchdowns? All right. Do you think Ridley plays?
Starting point is 00:10:41 I don't want to use Ridley. If you're going to use Steven Ridley, you might as well use James Devlin. No, it's not about using Ridley. It's about downgrading Samuels. No, I think you get Ridley's five to seven carries. The Steelers aren't playing this game to placate Steven Ridley. They're playing because they're desperate to get the highest playoffs possible.
Starting point is 00:11:01 LeGarrette Blount had 16 carries for 48 yards, two catches for 17 yards, which is actually a pretty good game for LeGarrette Blount had 16 carries for 48 yards, two catches for 17 yards, which is actually a pretty good game for LeGarrette Blount. Matt Breida was limited in practice, guys. We're going to preview that game, but thoughts there, Matt Breida? I think if you have... I had somebody ask me today about playing Elijah McGuire
Starting point is 00:11:19 or Jeff Wilson, and if Breida practices today, and we're going to get the probably game-time decision note on Breida, then I would probably be concerned about not... I'd probably play somebody in the Saturday game over. Okay. Austin Hooper missed practice again.
Starting point is 00:11:36 So he really might miss the game against Arizona. Cleveland cornerback Denzel Ward won't play this week. Doug Baldwin practiced. Are you guys ranking Doug Baldwin? I'm sure we will after today. And T.Y. Hilton missed practice again. Do you think this is legit?
Starting point is 00:11:52 You think T.Y. Hilton really might not play? This is another one that you wait and see what happens on Friday. If he practices on Friday, he'll be in for Sunday. I would expect. And here's a weird note. Dan Quinn said Atlanta wants to keep both Freeman and Coleman next year. I don't like that. I doubt that happens.
Starting point is 00:12:10 Does Atlanta want to keep Dan Quinn next year? That's a good question. Do you expect LaShawn McCoy or Chris Ivory against Detroit? Looks like McCoy's going to probably. Did he practice on Thursday? He did. Let's see what he does on Friday. Yeah, we have a mailbag show.
Starting point is 00:12:28 We'll try to update you on all the injuries. What else? Am I missing anything big here? Look at the injury report. Dante Pettis was limited in practice. We expect him to play. Yeah, I think we're good. We got everything we need.
Starting point is 00:12:44 Jordan Reed probably not going to play. No. Allen Robinson, that's one. What do we think about Allen Robinson? Looks like he's going to play. Okay. All right, guys. Got a question this morning.
Starting point is 00:12:56 And I never do this in the regular season, but I'm tempted sometimes to do it in the postseason. Do you ever, and I don't do it, but I'm tempted. It's out there in the back of my mind. Do you ever change your lineup based on your opponent's team? Like, oh, he's got Rodgers, so I don't want to start. I mean, this is a bad example because you're starting Devontae Adams. But do you ever make decisions based on your opponent's quarterbacks
Starting point is 00:13:18 or wide receivers or anything like that? Try not to. Almost never. Almost, almost never. never yeah don't do it and should we talk about the weather this weekend I'm looking at it right now it looks like there's a decent chance of rain in Baltimore
Starting point is 00:13:38 fair chance of rain in New Jersey for Titans and the Giants also looks like there's a chance of pretty high chance of rain in New Jersey for Titans and the Giants. Great. Also, it looks like there's a pretty high chance of rain in San Francisco. For Seattle at San Francisco. Okay. That looks to be about it, but I never really consider weather until minimum 12 hours before kickoff.
Starting point is 00:14:04 Yeah, well, if it's going to be raining on Sunday, now I can't do anything fun. I can't leave the house. Going to have to watch football. Yeah, well, if it's going to be raining on Sunday, now I can't do anything fun. I can't leave the house. I'm going to have to watch football. Yeah. Yeah, I guess the only thing that really jumped out to me was I saw Mitchell Trubisky play in cold weather last week, and it didn't go very well. I can't imagine it's going to be much warmer this week. I think playing the Rams had a little bit more to do with the weather.
Starting point is 00:14:22 I don't know. I mean, both of those quarterbacks were awful. They were just making terrible throws. Well, golf is a little bit of a different story than Trubisky. Yeah. And then Mariota in cold weather could be a problem too. 38 degrees according to what I'm looking at. Oh, alright. Well, that's not so bad. I just
Starting point is 00:14:37 wanted to say this new segment. The Week 15 fear. I want to know if there's someone that you feel obligated to start but you're really nervous about it. I fear I lost week 15 because I started... I know who it is for me.
Starting point is 00:14:53 Aaron Jones. That's exactly what I was going to say. Yeah. The one decision I had yesterday with Aaron Jones, which I made because I ranked that way, is I played Justin Jackson over him. Otherwise, I don't really have a lot of choices,
Starting point is 00:15:10 but it makes me nervous. Yeah, part of the strategy of fantasy football in-game is eliminating as many choices as you can so that you don't second-guess yourself. I started David Johnson over Damian Williams in one of my leagues, and I had to rank that way i'll i'll deal with that but it probably just means that david johnson's gonna have like four fantasy points this week and i'm gonna be out of the league that i've won two years in a row and i'm gonna cry about it uh i also fear cam newt which is why he's not in
Starting point is 00:15:39 my top 12 yeah i'm nervous i think a lot of people are getting away from him though i hope they are you can't get away from Aaron Jones. I know. That's the thing. I got him in two leagues. I think that's what Adam's point is. Who's a must-start guy that you don't necessarily want to start? I'll give you my two examples with Aaron Jones, and maybe this will be relevant.
Starting point is 00:15:58 I mean, it's not going to change my mind. I'm almost positive I'm going to start him. In one league, it's either Aaron Jones, or I could start Elijah McGuire. I could start Josh Adams. I could start Cameron Brait as a flex. Yeah, see there, I think you just stick with the best talent. Right, you go with Aaron Jones.
Starting point is 00:16:19 Now, in the IDP league, PPR, I think I could start Adam Humphreys over him, but I think that's a mistake. The one thing I look at with Jones is what he did against Minnesota. Yeah, good game. And what Barkley did against this defense. Sure, and he should catch three or four passes. Yeah. We've seen the Rams.
Starting point is 00:16:37 This happened to Sean McVay in the playoffs last year. It happened, I think, a little bit against the Chiefs. Now he was hurt, so you don't really know fully how healthy he was. But he gets away from Gurley. Yeah. He got away from Gurley too much against the Bears. Can't really fault him against the Chiefs a few weeks back because there was the
Starting point is 00:16:55 ankle injury. But yeah. But he was still playing. He was still playing. I thought they should have carried the ball more, but he was playing a little hurt. It's funny that we're saying that because the Packers don't necessarily always feature Aaron Jones, but at least Philbin did last week in the first game after the first quarter. So, guys, we talk
Starting point is 00:17:12 a lot about good players with bad matchups. How about bad fantasy players? I won't call them bad players, but frustrating or bad fantasy players with good matchups this week. These guys are all in the NFC home games, which we're going to start getting into soon. We have beat the waiver wire. I want to talk about some sleepers,
Starting point is 00:17:27 and then we'll start talking about the seven games. There are three running backs, maybe four, that look like they're in pretty good situations. I want to know how confident you are in starting. Derek Henry at the Giants, Jordan Howard against Green Bay, and the Atlanta running backs against Arizona. I think Henry is a good play.
Starting point is 00:17:49 It's just a matter of can he take advantage of the situation and not have the huge letdown after last week? Because the people that are in the pro Derrick Henry camp right now are like, oh my God, this is what he's capable of doing. But then you look at the sample size of what he's done. The thing I go back to is Jordan Howard and Josh Adams against the Giants. That's, I think, realistic of what he can do. 75 to 85 rushing yards.
Starting point is 00:18:11 I'm talking about a good day. 75 to 85 rushing yards and a touchdown. Now, he has scored in five of his last seven games, so throughout the four touchdowns, he has still found the end zone more times than not in the last month and a half. Which is what you're counting on from him. Yeah. I mean, he's not catching the ball. So, I think you look at it as, you know, if they give him 15 to 18 carries, it's been
Starting point is 00:18:30 a while since they've done that. Last week was the first time, I think, since week three or four. If they give him those opportunities in this matchup against Giants defense that struggled, he should be fine. The other two guys, I think, are the other two situations. I think the Falcons in particular, which is the guy. Because it seems as if, based on the last two weeks, they're trending in the Ido Smith camp. And that kind of goes to where the opposite of what the Dan Quinn story is. Because the thought would be is Tevin Coleman's on his way out the door.
Starting point is 00:19:02 And maybe they're trying to see what Ido Smith can do. Ido's played better tevin coleman got off to a nice start last week and then he faded fast and edo was a bigger factor in the passing game and was just the eyeball test says that he's the better runner it's a bad offensive line so i think both those running backs are risks but i've said it before if i had to pick one it's going to be Ito over Tevin. And Ito's cheaper in daily. I don't mind him this week as a daily play. And I think Jordan Howard, you'll be lucky if he gets you 10 fantasy points no matter
Starting point is 00:19:34 what the situation is because he doesn't get the ball very much. But that's rare. It's rare for him to get that kind of work. So the last two games, Jordan Howard has 16 carries at the Giants, 19 carries against the Rams. He had 18 carries four games ago against Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:19:53 And here's the stat of the game. There have been seven running backs with more than 12 carries against the Packers, which is not a lot, by the way. Six of the seven have scored 10 or more fantasy points in non-PPR, 12 or more fantasy points in PPR. So, I mean, if I had to guess your rankings, I'd say it's Henry, Howard,
Starting point is 00:20:14 Falcons, right? Yes, correct. I think the thing with Howard, like, I honestly don't see much difference, not necessarily talent, but in terms of situation right now, with him and Sonny Michel. Yeah. You can almost make a case for Howard to be better.
Starting point is 00:20:31 I think Howard is better. I am ranked ahead of Michel. Yeah, I don't right now, but... I just look at it this way. Michel is losing touchdowns. Michel does not play in the passing game. And Michel has a tougher matchup this week. Not by much, but it's tough. And Howard trusts either one.
Starting point is 00:20:48 It's hard to trust either one of these guys. No, but at least at least with Howard, it appears as if as the weather is getting colder, they're trying to lean on him a little bit more and take pressure off of. Now, clearly, there's been quarterback issues because of Chase Daniel playing in place of Trubisky. But I think you just look at it as Tariq Cohen is who he is. He's not going to be somebody that they feed the ball to. Howard's somebody that they would like to feed the ball to. Somebody asked me this the other day, and I said,
Starting point is 00:21:13 you can tell right away, first quarter with the Bears, if Howard is averaging four-plus yards per carry, he's going to have a good game. Right away, first drive. You see that right away, you know it's fine. If he gets off and he's just tap dancing behind the line of scrimmage and they're not getting pushed on the offensive line, getting pushed back into his face, it's a bad day right away.
Starting point is 00:21:31 All right. And you know how we said if we have Aaron Jones in our lineup, we're a little afraid. Usually if I see I'm playing against Derrick Henry, I'd be happy. But I'd be a little nervous if I were playing against Derrick. I don't know Derrick Henry in any leagues. But I think he has a chance for a monster game just because I think this is arguably the best matchup that you could have.
Starting point is 00:21:50 I want to get into some sleepers. You know, I felt yesterday it was kind of my fault. I didn't really focus on deep league guys. It was, you know, a lot of the guys that we normally talk about. Just take a few minutes to talk about some deep league guys. So let's just do a position by position. We could just say some names. I just want some sleepers with upside for players,
Starting point is 00:22:09 for fantasy owners in deeper leagues. Might be available on waivers. You have any quarterbacks that come to mind and have some good upside this week? Derek Carr, Nick Mullins, and really deep, Jeff Driscoll. Mullins is the only one for me. Okay, Jamie, if you had to pick one, so Dave would go with Mullins. Would you go with Carr or Mullins? I'd go Carr. Great situation for him. He's is the only one for me. Okay, Jamie, if you had to pick one, so Dave would go with Mullins.
Starting point is 00:22:25 Would you go with Carr or Mullins? I'd go Carr. Great situation for him. He's playing great the last two weeks. How about running backs? Deep leagues? Available on waivers? I mean, Elijah McGuire would be the first one I'd go look for.
Starting point is 00:22:37 Yeah. If you want to go deeper than that, Zach Zenner. Okay. Yeah, Zach Zenner is available in 98% of leagues. I don't think I'm starting him, though. I think I'm speculating. Again, I don't think a lot of people want to start these guys, but that's the point.
Starting point is 00:22:51 If you're looking at it, we're beyond this point calling guys like Jalen Samuels and Jeff Wilson and those kind of guys sleepers. That's just silly because of what the start percentages are. Ido Smith, I think, still qualifies. Elijah McGuire qualifies. I got one that I want you to take down. Elijah McGuire is interesting because he's got the Packers at home next week.
Starting point is 00:23:16 And if Crowell's out again and he plays well this week, you probably won't hesitate to use him. Whereas Zenner, at Buffalo this week, we have no idea what his role will be. And then even if he has a good game, Minnesota at home in week 16, you're not going to feel good about starting him. How about Darren Sproles? So Clements out and I just looked at seven starts for Nick Foles, not including
Starting point is 00:23:38 week 17. He barely played last year. But five last year, two this year, including the playoffs. Running back has 40 receiving yards or a touchdown catch in five of seven games. And you could see a scenario, certainly, where they're behind in this game at the Rams. So I thought maybe there's a chance for Darren Sproles, who scored in two straight games, to be surprisingly good. I think that's what you're counting on from him, though, is scoring,
Starting point is 00:24:02 because I don't know how much he's going to play. Oh, he's going to play a lot more this week than he has the first two games. But how much? Sure. But I don't know. Is he going to play 60% of the snaps? He may have to. I'd be surprised if it was that many.
Starting point is 00:24:13 No, I don't know about 60. But he could have five or more catches. I think in PPR, Darren Sproles is interesting. Wide receiver sleepers? The two guys in Denver still. Hamilton and Patrick. If Jordy's still available, I'd go look for Jordy.
Starting point is 00:24:31 I don't hate the Buffalo guys if you're going deep. Oh! Taewon Taylor. In Tennessee. How about D.D. Westbrook? I didn't bring him up in the game yesterday when we previewed that game. Absolutely. He's done well to his last three, and it's a great matchup.
Starting point is 00:24:46 Okay. And I wonder, I know this guy is 64% owned, but you guys have Jared Goff as a top five quarterback. I wonder if Josh Reynolds is one of those games where all three of the guys have good games. Yep. No, I'm starting Reynolds in one league over Godwin, and I've lost Cooper Cupp,
Starting point is 00:25:02 so I've been kind of scrambling to find a second receiver, and he's a de facto guy this week. Tight end sleepers? I mean, my favorite is Frick, sir. My favorite's Vernon Davis. Okay. Those are good names. And DST sleepers?
Starting point is 00:25:17 Bills, the Lions, the Falcons. Falcons ended up being my favorite of the week. Okay. Let's beat the waiver wire. I don't know if you really have to. I think we just did. Yeah. Tennessee DST against the Redskins next week.
Starting point is 00:25:35 Patriots against the Bills. I absolutely 100% will be picking up a DST on Saturday night for next week. Cleveland against the Bengals. Miami's DST against Saturday night for next week. Cleveland against the Bengals. Miami's DST against Jacksonville. I'd have to say Tennessee would be my favorite against the Redskins. Here's one. How about Devontae Freeman? Do we know if there's any chance he plays next week?
Starting point is 00:25:57 I'm sure there's a chance, but I'm not sure. I don't know if they bring him back for a meaningless game. I couldn't really think of a quarterback, but Baker Mayfield, I don't know. He's so owned, but if by any chance he's available, he's playing the Bengals next week. And how about a Denver-wide receiver at Oakland? This segment sucks.
Starting point is 00:26:20 I think it just comes down to, you know, Courtland Sutton's, I'm sure, not available. But Hamilton and Patrick are. Yeah. So whoever comes out of this game with a stronger performance. Yeah. Can't really beat the waiver wire in that regard. But you don't have to beat the waiver wire because there's only going to be two people
Starting point is 00:26:38 competing for players on the waiver wire next week. And we're always trying to, you know, be efficient on this show. Save you time on the waiver wire next week. And we're always trying to be efficient on this show, save you time on the waiver wire and win you leagues and save you money in that regard. But we can do that with the SeatGeek app as well. You want to get to the game? I mean, there's a lot of stuff going on right now. We've got big football games.
Starting point is 00:26:59 NBA is in full swing. I'm going to a bowl game. There are always great concerts, and there's theater, and there's comedy, and SeatGeek is your ticket to all of those events. I have the SeatGeek app on my phone, and I do use it all the time. And I recommend it all the time. I recommend it to you all the time, obviously. But even when I'm off the air, I'm like, yo, yo, listen, use the SeatGeek app. Because I could just hand you $10. You want $10, everybody, don't you? Well, how about we save you $10 on your first SeatGeek purchase? You download the app, you buy your tickets, you use the code FFT,
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Starting point is 00:27:56 I want to see because I know it's not a great situation for Drew Brees. Three straight road games, not playing great. Has he ever had three bad games in a row? And, yeah, he has. 2015, though, that was the last time he scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in three straight weeks. 2015. It's been a while.
Starting point is 00:28:19 And, by the way, he followed up that bad stretch with 892 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 95 fantasy points in his next two games. But is Drew Brees going to have three bad games in a row? That's my question. What's your definition of bad? Bad for him or bad for fantasy? Well, ordinarily, I'd say less than 20 points. In this environment, I will up it to less than 22 fantasy points and six points per passing touchdown leagues. It's funny that you picked that number. Why?
Starting point is 00:28:49 Because what I've seen from him is he's had at least 21 fantasy points in his last two games at Carolina. Panthers have allowed 21 plus fantasy points to six of the last eight quarterbacks they faced. They've only picked off four passes in those eight games. I think Brees is going to be okay, but I don't think he'll be spectacular. I'd start Lamar Jackson
Starting point is 00:29:16 and Dak Prescott over. Thank her cousins. All three have more upside. Saints running backs. Go. That's what I hope they do. Camara's a must start. What was that, Dave?
Starting point is 00:29:31 That was my old man laugh because I made a bad joke. That's great. Glad you liked it. You started Camara. What they did last week in the second half was really smart. They ran the football. I wonder if they try and do that and then use play action off of that. What they did last week in the second half was really smart. They ran the football. And I wonder if they try and do that and then use play action off of that.
Starting point is 00:29:52 Their only goal right now is winning. Breeze is going to get the MVP or not. And I don't think they care about that right now. I really have a solution for them. Start throwing the ball to Mark Ingram more. They don't have a number two pass catcher. I guess they have Kamara. But even he is not catching as many passes as we'd like to see him. I think the last two games he's been pretty involved.
Starting point is 00:30:13 But since Ingram came back, he's been inconsistent there. That should be their change-up, by the way. When they're not handing off to those guys, they should be throwing to them. Yeah, they should. It also feels like they're really missing that second guy in the passing game. Yeah. That's right. That's what I was hitting at. As far as Ingram goes,
Starting point is 00:30:32 how do you compare him to Samuels and Niners guys? Ahead. Even if Breida's out? No. Breida's out, then Wilson. I have Ingram one spot ahead of Jalen Samuels in non-PPR. Okay.
Starting point is 00:30:48 Yeah, Carolina's got a pretty solid run defense now, but they've given up a rushing touchdown to a running back in five straight games. And I think it's partially because they just have a bad defense. There are going to be some opportunities to score. Just one quick note, just kind of for fun. The Panthers allow the third fewest receiving yards to running backs. Saquon Barkley is the only running back with more than 30 receiving yards against Carolina. He had 81 yards and two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:31:16 Would you start any New Orleans wide receivers other than Michael Thomas or a tight end? No. No. All right, Cam Newton or Drew Brees? Brees. What do you think about Cam this week, guys? Can't trust him. Saints in their last five allowing just 16.0 points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:31:37 And he's been under 20 in two in a row. Okay. Would you start? I mean, the shoulder is obviously an issue. Would you start Mullins over Cam? No, I'm not there yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Mullins is better. He's been better than the last two weeks. I think I'm going to start Christian McCaffrey.
Starting point is 00:31:55 He's probably smart. The most rushing yards by a running back against the Saints this year. Is it A, 84? B, 75, or C, 68? It was by Ezekiel Elliott. C.
Starting point is 00:32:16 No, it's B. Sorry, I should have let old man Dave guess and laugh. 75 yards, most rushing yards by running back. They're great against running backs. Doesn't matter. Christian McCaffrey, start. All right, Carolina wide receivers. Who's your favorite?
Starting point is 00:32:29 Still DJ Moore. Yeah, but it's back-to-back. Oh, really now? Mm-hmm. Are they better flexes than Mark Ingram? In PPR, yes. Wow. Standard, maybe.
Starting point is 00:32:41 Moore is in standard, not PPR. How much do you like Moore and Samuel? I think the only thing missing from their games right now is touchdowns. Moore's got four straight games with eight straight targets. Samuel's gotten, I think, 11 or 12 PPR points in four games in a row. He's over 80 receiving yards the last two weeks. The floor is there. It's just they haven yards the last two weeks. So that's, you know, the floor is there. It's just they haven't hit the ceiling yet.
Starting point is 00:33:08 You know, Moore has a couple times this season, but he just hasn't done it lately. So where do you have them? In the 20s? Yep. Right around there. And where do you have Ian Thomas? Top 10 for me.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Actually, it's kind of crazy. I've got eighth. I like him better in PPR than non-PPR. For sure. Look, the Saints are great against tight ends. Yeah, they are. It's all of a sudden we're all in on a rookie tight end who's had one good game. I guess
Starting point is 00:33:35 the team that defends tight ends better than anybody else. They do a great job against tight ends, but Ian Thomas is running those middle of the field short routes. Like most tight ends? What's that? Like most tightthe-field short routes. Like most tight ends? What's that? Like most tight ends? Yeah, sure.
Starting point is 00:33:47 Like most tight ends that aren't studly tight ends. He runs seven yards, turns around, cam throws. Runs eight yards, turns around, cam throws. And he tries to make a play after the catch. That volume will add up. Yeah. Thomas had nine for 77 last week at Cleveland. The week before, he had 5 catches for 46 yards.
Starting point is 00:34:07 And PPR, like, you'll take that. He'll be pretty good for someone he picked up off waivers. Thomas is 43% owned. Do you feel, though, that you're nervous? Like, obviously you expect McCaffrey to be in the passing game. You've got Moore and Samuel as borderline number two, number three receivers. And you've got Thomas as a tight end one. And you've got Cam Newton as a sit.
Starting point is 00:34:30 Well, I mean, it's been the case the last two weeks. Cam's turning the ball over. Yeah, it's true. Cam's not rushing as much. And there are other quarterbacks that are outperforming him. Yeah, that makes sense. Okay, I think that more orperforming them. Yeah, that makes sense. Okay, I think that more or less covers it. We can compare
Starting point is 00:34:47 Samuel and Moore to some other guys as we go forward. Let's go to Seattle at San Francisco. Your stat of the game. A running back has scored 14 or more fantasy points in PPR against the Seahawks in seven straight games. I said that wrong. 14
Starting point is 00:35:03 or more in non-PPR. 19 or more in PPR. No, I said it right. All right, here we go. Starting over. Everybody, men in blacket, erase that from your memory. A running back has scored 14 or more fantasy points in PPR against Seattle in seven straight games and 19 or more in PPR in six straight games. To sum it up, Seattle sucks against running backs. What do you do in this game with both scenarios, Brita in and Brita out? I'm going to stay away from them both if Brita is in.
Starting point is 00:35:36 If Brita is out, Jeff Wilson is a number two running back. Agreed. There's no way you can start Matt Brita, right? Not with any kind of confidence. Unless Jeff Wilson all of a sudden gets ruled out. Right, right. Something like that. I see Heath has Russell Wilson 11th. You guys have him 5th.
Starting point is 00:35:52 Yeah, I feel a lot more comfortable about it if Doug Baldwin plays. Would you drop him if Doug Baldwin doesn't play? A little bit. He'll still be top 10. Yeah, San Francisco's pass defense is so bad. Right. still be top 10. Yeah, San Francisco's past defense is so bad. It just so happens that the coinciding of Wilson's bad games with Baldwin not playing are
Starting point is 00:36:11 against the three toughest matchups they've had. That's why I'm not as nervous about him, even if Baldwin doesn't play. Tell me if this matters to you at all. Four of the last five quarterbacks to face the 49ers have thrown for fewer than 200 yards. Carr, Manning, Wilson, and Keenum.
Starting point is 00:36:32 That doesn't mean they've done poorly, but they have thrown for fewer than 200 yards. Well, Keenum sucks. Right. Carr's not so great. Wilson was just ultra-efficient. Yeah, Wilson threw, I think, 17 passes and four touchdowns. Right. That's crazy. Yeah, 11 for 17, 185 for four and four touchdowns. Right. That's crazy.
Starting point is 00:36:47 Yeah, 11 for 17, 185-4. And Manning had a good game, too. All right. Chris Carson. This is not an easy matchup, but it doesn't often matter for the Seahawks. Start or sit? I'm starting him. Number two guy.
Starting point is 00:37:05 He's been great the last month. You know, and the last time these two teams met, you know, Penny had a touchdown. Carson got stopped inside the five a couple times. And obviously, you know, the finger dislocation, you know, took him out at the end of the game. But he still had over 100 total yards. And so you just have to like the way that he's been used. Last week I thought was one of his most impressive games because no fluker being there against Minnesota. He just – he was the way that he's been used. Last week I thought was one of his most impressive games
Starting point is 00:37:25 because no fluker being there against Minnesota. He was as good as he's been. Seahawks got to do what they wanted to do in that game too. They ran the ball as much as they possibly could. I think they continue to do that, so that workload should go his way, especially if Penny ends up not being a factor. Yeah, Carson's had three pretty tough matchups lately, and he's come through in all of them.
Starting point is 00:37:46 He had 105 yards and a touchdown at Detroit. This is just rushing totals. 55 yards and a touchdown at Carolina, 90 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings. But how about this stat? 13 running backs have had double-digit carries against the 49ers. Barring injury, Carson will become the 14th. Only one out of 13 running backs with
Starting point is 00:38:07 double-digit carries have had more than 69 rushing yards. That includes Todd Gurley, David Johnson twice, Kareem Hunt, Saquon Barkley, Phillip Lindsay. None of them got even 70 rushing yards. All right, so just last thing on Carson. Jalen Samuels or Carson? Samuels. Samuels and PPR I've got Carson ahead of him in none Dante Pettis or Carson Carson I will go with
Starting point is 00:38:36 Pettis and PPR Carson and none DJ Moore Or Carson Carson I will take Moore and PPR and Carson in non-PPR. All right. I got you. I got you.
Starting point is 00:38:49 Looking at the Seattle wide receivers, your thoughts on them this week? I like Lockett a lot. Yep. Lockett up. What about Baldwin? He'll be okay if he plays number three receiver. Right. He'll help you Baldwin win your fantasy league?
Starting point is 00:39:07 So you like Lockett better than Baldwin if they both play? Yes. Yep. Lockett is top 20 for me. I like him better than Galladay. I like him better than DJ Moore, Tyler Boyd, Giants receivers. Not Beckham. Well, Beckham's not going to play.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Okay. Dude. So I like him better than Beckham, too. So there. Baldwin or Carson? Baldwin or Carson. Unlock it. Carson.
Starting point is 00:39:32 Carson. All righty. Nick Mullins. Yeah, I'm starting Nick Mullins in Superflex. Going to need a big one. I like it. Yeah. You should.
Starting point is 00:39:40 Yeah, why not? He had a big game against Seattle. He had 26 fantasy points. Actually, here's fantasy points in five starts. 28, 12, 10, 26, and 23. I am so impressed with Kyle Shanahan. I mean, he's unbelievable. Yep, yep, yep, yep.
Starting point is 00:39:56 He's doing great, and it's helping this very mediocre quarterback put up good fantasy numbers. I don't think the Seattle defense is anywhere near as good as they were on Monday. They played on Monday. Now they're on the road after that. So prep time was short, turnaround time short. And I think the 49ers give them a game. I would actually be surprised if Nick Mullins had a terrible game. Yeah, me too.
Starting point is 00:40:20 Seahawks, in their last seven games, Kirk Cousins is the only quarterback who played poorly. And we'll see if last week was a turning point for them. Maybe their defense is just awesome. I don't think so, but we'll see. It all comes down to the pass rush. When the pass rush is good, they're good. Like most teams.
Starting point is 00:40:36 Yeah. If Breida is out, does Wilson have a good game or a great game? Good game. The thing that was a little surprising last week was the lack of involvement in the passing game because that's what set him apart in this first game was the eight catches on nine targets. I had a feeling that that was...
Starting point is 00:40:53 Shanahan said that was by design the first time around. So hopefully he's a little bit more involved again. They never typically did that. I think that was something that was game plan specific two games ago. I don't know what's with me. And I don't think he was a prolific pass catcher coming out of North Texas. I don't think you can count on him for a lot of catches.
Starting point is 00:41:15 Well, here's one thing that's working in his favor. Seahawks are terrible against pass-catching running backs. They allow the second-most receiving yards to running backs. Running backs caught a touchdown against the Seahawks in three of their last four games. Seven running backs have had 40 or more receiving yards against the Seahawks in their last eight games. That's crazy.
Starting point is 00:41:34 How much do you like Dante Pettis this week, fellas? I dig him. Yep. Ride the touchdown streak. He's fast. He's been playing well. I'd like to see a higher catch rate, but plenty of his targets have been long, and Mullins isn't exactly known for connecting on deep balls. But I think the targets will continue to be there for him.
Starting point is 00:41:55 And I will repeat myself from a few minutes ago that Seattle defense isn't as good as they looked on Monday. Pettis is a start. But one thing they are good at is limiting tight ends. So you're going to start George Kittle, but the only question I have is, Kittle had six catches for 70 yards against the Seahawks two weeks ago.
Starting point is 00:42:14 Would you start Jalen Samuels or George Kittle? Samuels. I have Kittle higher. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I think I was mentioning going into the Thursday game, a little higher. Okay. Yeah, I mean, I think I was mentioning going into
Starting point is 00:42:25 the Thursday game. I was going to say the Chargers. The Chargers are not bad against tight ends. They did a really good job against Travis Kelsey. I think next year
Starting point is 00:42:35 the Chargers are going to be unbelievable against tight ends. Derwin James is. Yeah, exactly. He's so good. All right. That's it for this game. We're going to get to
Starting point is 00:42:44 Miami and Minnesota. A game that nobody's looking for. All right, that's it for this game. We're going to get to Miami and Minnesota, a game that nobody's looking for. Actually, false. I am looking forward to Miami and Minnesota. It's kind of an easy game to break down for fantasy purposes, but we'll get to that in just a second right after this break. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League.
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Starting point is 00:44:03 Inventions in the state of Minnesota include masking tape and scotch tape, Wheaties cereal, Bisquick, HMOs, the Bundt pan, Aveda beauty products, and green giant vegetables. It's according to 50states.com. Thank you. Green giant vegetables were invented in Minnesota? That's what it said. Minnesota invented inventions.
Starting point is 00:44:27 So they invented broccoli. I think the company probably started there. That's my guess. Do you invent a company, or do you start a company? You start it. Stat of the game number two. Kirk Cousins has now scored more than 24 fantasy points and six points per passing touchdown leagues once in his last nine games.
Starting point is 00:44:51 That includes great matchups at the Jets, home against the Saints, home against the Lions, and at Seattle. So that's one big game in his last nine games for Kirk Cousins. It was against the Packers. Is he going to have a big game? He'll have a good game. He'll be right around what Rivers did. 22 points.
Starting point is 00:45:10 Okay, so top 12-ish. Better than Winston, better than Cam. Alright, but we're not thinking massive performance. No, because I don't think the Dolphins push him to. The only one of the three check marks that worry you about Cousins
Starting point is 00:45:25 are team with winning record. Because bad on the road, he's playing at home. Bad in prime time, games are during the day. Team with winning record, Dolphins for 7-6. So they barely qualify as a team with a winning record. This could be his first win this year over a team with a winning record. I know you like Dalvin Cook, Jamie. Yeah, it's the start of the week.
Starting point is 00:45:43 I think it sets up to have, I would say, his best game of the season. He has a high of 16 carries. That was week one. Last week, 13 carries. You've got to assume the change in offense coordinators to get him more involved in every capacity, but specifically carrying the ball. And you look at this Dolphins defense.
Starting point is 00:46:02 I know they played better of late. They did a good job against Sonny Michel. The game before with Marlon Mack should have been a big game. He had over 90 total yards. But if you like trends, the three NFC North teams to face Miami so far this season,
Starting point is 00:46:17 Tariq Cohen went off, Aaron Jones went off, Karion Johnson went off. I think Dalvin Cook will go off too. Okay. Both Minnesota wide receivers, no hesitation? No. Diggs is the number two, but still top 15. Thielen, top 10.
Starting point is 00:46:34 And I don't know if Xavier Howard's going to play, but if he does, whoop-dee-doo. If he doesn't, Minka Fitzpatrick got roasted last week. He had maybe his absolute worst game of the season. I don't know that it's whoop-de-doo because he's got seven interceptions. It might affect his cousins. Maybe. I don't think that he's a reason why you sit or downgrade Stephon Diggs.
Starting point is 00:46:56 No, I was going to say cousins because Miami's second in the NFL in interceptions. Howard has seven of them. Yeah, he's a monster. I'm not ready to call him a monster. I didn't think he was going to play. I didn't think it was even possible. He has a chance. Adam Gates said there's still a possibility he plays.
Starting point is 00:47:18 And he was back in practice doing some side drills. But I would be surprised if he played, too. He's in a contract here. I don't think you're going to see him out there risking himself for further injury. Are you starting any Dolphins? Not if I can help it.
Starting point is 00:47:34 Yeah, like you wouldn't start Kenyon Drake over... Would you start Kenyon Drake or Derek Henry? Henry. I mean, Drake, you got lucky last week. You did. The touches have been way down for him. It's very fluky. Double-digit fantasy points and three straight non-PPR, and you know how it's been done.
Starting point is 00:47:51 You got the miracle play last week, limited touches. Frank Gore is still getting too much work for some reason. Now, Gore did mispractice yesterday for personal reasons. If for whatever reason he's out, that changes things. But most likely you're not playing him. Kyle Rudolph, anyone? No, thank you. If you're desperate, the Dolphins are bad against Titans.
Starting point is 00:48:12 I'd rather have broccoli. You don't like broccoli? I do like broccoli. I love broccoli. Oh. Yeah, yeah, I would say. Likes broccoli, hates pickles. I would say broccoli is my favorite green vegetable.
Starting point is 00:48:25 Yeah, I do. I like cucumbers a lot. You like cucumbers, but you don't. Don't even say that. They're not even close. I knew you were going to go there. But they are close. They're not even close.
Starting point is 00:48:34 Well, how do you make pickles? But they don't taste anything alike. It's like saying grapes and raisins aren't the same. They're not. They don't taste that similar. I understand that they're similar structurally taste that similar i understand the thing that they're similar structurally you know what i forgot today and your mind i forgot the bonanza oh great i'll think about it all right let's go to our next game i have to turn the music down for this game
Starting point is 00:49:01 because i do not expect oh man People would have been pretty pissed at me about Keenan Allen if I had gone with that. Yeah. I don't know if last night would have been a successful bonanza. It would have been a successful bonanza. Really? How did Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey? Yeah, I guess not. Are you happy with what Patrick Mahomes gave you?
Starting point is 00:49:20 No, but he still would have qualified. Green Bay's at Chicago. Not a bonanza. Stat of the game. I already gave it. Six of seven running backs with more than 12 carries against the Packers. They've scored 10 or more in non-PPR. 12 or more points in PPR. It's a good sign for Jordan Howard.
Starting point is 00:49:35 But he's Jordan Howard. I know you don't like Cam Newton. Who do you like more, Cam or Rodgers? Cam as of now. I've got Cam higher. I'm going to revisit the Bears side of this game before the mailbag podcast. I'm very intrigued by what the Bears do on offense, and I'm not sure how they're going to go about attacking Green Bay.
Starting point is 00:50:02 All right. Well, let's start with the Packers then, right? Okay. And then I think Jamie's take on Mitchell Trubisky attacking Green Bay. All right, well, let's start with the Packers then, right? Okay. And then I think Jamie's take on Mitchell Trubisky should be heard. Packers, easy. You try to sit Rodgers, you're pretty much stuck starting Aaron Jones. But I will ask you guys for some running backs you'd start ahead of Aaron Jones. Dalvin Cook?
Starting point is 00:50:22 One was last night, Justin Jackson. It's basically the names you know. It's not like he's behind a lot of... He's not behind the 49ers guys. He's not behind Elijah McGuire. We talked about that already. He's behind Joe Mixon and David Johnson, Leonard Fournette. Dalvin?
Starting point is 00:50:40 Huh? He's behind Dalvin. He's behind Dalvin Cook. How about Lamar Miller? No. How about Tar Miller? No. How about Tariq Cohen in PPR? Yeah, I'd start Cohen over him. How about Tariq Cohen in non-PPR?
Starting point is 00:50:54 No, I'd start Jalen Samuels over him in PPR, too. Okay. And then Devontae Adams is a must-start. And Jimmy Graham is a sit. So the Packers are pretty easy. Jamie, what's your take on Mitchell Trubisky? You have him 10th. Dave has him 15th. Heath has him 9th. Yeah, I mean, this is a bad defense.
Starting point is 00:51:11 I think you just look at it. Three of the last four against them, 22 or more fantasy points. The one who didn't do that was Josh Rosen. So you have to kind of throw that out. I think he'll get back to running the ball a little bit. And last week, you know, was kind of a bad setup for him because he's coming off the game with a shoulder injury.
Starting point is 00:51:35 So you have the rust involved there. But the Rams defense, you know, I know the numbers don't suggest it, but they're a different team when they keep Talib on the field. And then you have that was the first time or the second time the Detroit game was the first time we have Talib and Dante Fowler. So better pass rush and better secondary. So this Packers defense is not going to be the same test by any semblance. And so, you know, you go also look at his overall games at home, almost 32 points per game at home. Now, a lot of that's fluky because he had the 55-point game against Tampa Bay,
Starting point is 00:52:05 but still, his numbers are a little bit better. Do you have any idea what his average is? Huh? If you take out that game, do you have any idea what his average is? Oh, I don't know. I mean, it's probably somewhere close to 20. Which isn't bad. Trubisky, at this point,
Starting point is 00:52:15 I'm not saying we're wrong to do this, but because he got off to a slow start and because he missed a few games, we're more or less hanging on a brilliant four-game stretch where we saw what he's capable of. He has not quite been the same since then. Well, I mean, he's missed two games, we're more or less hanging on a brilliant four-game stretch where we saw what he's capable of. He has not quite been the same since then. Well, I mean, he's missed two games, and then last week was his first time back. But three of his last four games have been duds. But at Buffalo,
Starting point is 00:52:39 home against Minnesota, home against the Rams, in his first game back, I actually don't disagree with you at all. I'm just throwing it out there. Three of his last four games have been duds. Yeah, and I do think Trubisky's in that conversation of, because most people held on to him, and it's not like he's a waiver-wire guy. You either picked up Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, or I don't know where you have him, Dave, in comparison to Nick Mullins and Derek Carr and the waiver-wire guys for this week. But, I mean, it really comes down to,
Starting point is 00:53:08 I think most people at this point will probably say they're starting Lamar Jackson over him. No way. I'm too afraid of Lamar Jackson getting pulled. Okay, so fine. So maybe not most people will, but I think that's a consideration for a lot of people. But does that concern you, Jackson getting pulled? I need to bring that up.
Starting point is 00:53:22 A little bit, a little bit. But, you know, I think that you just have to go with the thought of Tampa Bay's not that good. They're at home. He's going to really have to vomit all over himself to be pulled. I think he's got just enough leash where you can feel confident
Starting point is 00:53:36 in starting him. Dave, why are you lower on Trubisky, 15th? Let me again say that I reserve the right to change my mind on this. I'm going to take another look at it, but I just did not like the way that Trubisky played last week. And there's been a little too much inconsistency in his passing for me to buy into him as a reliable fantasy starter. And I think this is a game. I don't like the Packers run defense at all.
Starting point is 00:54:02 Their secondary is bad, too. That's well documented. But I wonder if the Bears kind of turn to their run game Their secondary is bad, too. That's well-documented. But I wonder if the Bears kind of turn to their run game a little bit. I have Tariq Cohen ranked very high. I think he could be a big-time playmaker on the ground and through the air. And if he's a big enough playmaker through the air, that would obviously be a huge boost to Trubisky. I started the week with him in the 20s at quarterback. And I moved him to 15 and if i i just i if i could get
Starting point is 00:54:27 a really good beat on him and what i think the bears can do and i'll confidently move him into my top 12 maybe by the end of the day i'll have him i don't think i'm gonna have him ahead of dac who i have at 10 right now so maybe he'll be ahead of Lamar Jackson. I doubt it. He'll probably be no higher than 13. But he could also slip down a little bit. I'm really going to give it another look and try and take a really good estimate on what the Bears can do against this defense. Because it's not a good defense.
Starting point is 00:54:57 I think this is a last stand kind of game for the Packers, and I don't expect them to survive it very well. All right. So we've talked enough about the running backs. What about the Bears' pass catchers? Are you starting any of them? No, it's almost like the anti-cam.
Starting point is 00:55:16 I will say, I wonder though, is Taylor Gabriel someone worthy of that sleepers discussion we have? He has four straight games with seven to nine targets. Granted, Trubisky didn't play most of them. I think he only played one of them. The problem with Gabriel has been that he was like a PPR stud because he'd catch seven or eight passes and then he'd have like 40 or 50 yards.
Starting point is 00:55:36 And now he's not catching any more than what, three, four passes? So I think he's kind of just a guy you can safely put on the waiver. I think all three Bears qualify as sleeper receivers, and all three qualify as busts. Would you start Allen Robinson or Derrick Henry? Henry.
Starting point is 00:55:55 I think I'll go Henry and PPR over Robinson, but that's, again, one that I'm going to have to think about. Allen Robinson or Corey Davis? I'll take my chance with Robinson this week. Last one. Allen Robinson or Sterling Shepard? Shepard. Okay.
Starting point is 00:56:12 I think we're done with this game. Start the Bears DST. Arizona's at Atlanta. Okay. All right. Larry Fitzgerald said he had nine targets last week without Christian Kirk. There have been 15 wide receivers with seven or more targets against Atlanta. Only two of them did not have at least 77 yards or a touchdown. Nelson Aguilar in week one and
Starting point is 00:56:40 Cole Beasley. So 13 of 15 wide receivers had 77 or more yards or a touchdown. 11 of 15 wide receivers with seven or more targets against the Falcons had 100 yards or a touchdown. Stat of the game number two is about Calvin Ridley. Calvin Ridley has only had three games all year with more than six targets. He's been a beast in all three of them. So general broad question for Arizona at Atlanta, are you starting any wide receivers in this game other than Julio Jones? I would take a shot on Calvin Ridley and I would take a shot on Calvin Ridley and Larry Fitzgerald in PPR. I would try to avoid Fitzgerald if you can. I just he's given you at least 10 PPR fantasy points in four of his last five. Actually, it's six of his last seven. So it's a safe floor.
Starting point is 00:57:31 In non-PPR, I'm not going to trust him. Now, okay. Fitzgerald or, well, Fitzgerald or Ridley, I guess. Start with that. Who do you have ranked higher? I'm going to take Ridley because I expect him to be matched up against David Amerson, and he will torch David Amerson if given the opportunity. And if Austin Hooper doesn't play, that should open up a couple more targets.
Starting point is 00:57:55 Yeah, that's a good point. And at home, he's great against the Saints. This is what I said last week about Ridley. He's great against the Saints. He's pretty good at home. He's terrible otherwise. Now I'm going to have to decide between Calvin Ridley
Starting point is 00:58:09 if Hooper's out and Josh Adams and Elijah McGuire in half PPR. The upside is with Ridley. He is having such a terrible stretch. The downside is with Ridley. But he is having such a terrible stretch.
Starting point is 00:58:25 Yes, the downsides with Ridley, too. I mean, we're talking like less than 40 yards most weeks. Home away, it doesn't matter. As long as he's not playing the Saints. Elijah McGuire is probably where you'll end up going. Yeah, probably. We talked about the Falcons running backs. Not too enthused about them.
Starting point is 00:58:41 David Johnson is top 10. It's got to be slightly nerve-wracking just because he's had good matchups lately and has not come through, right? Johnson? Yeah, I mean, we had this conversation with Will, for instance, that Will thinks he's going to have a great game. He absolutely could.
Starting point is 00:59:01 But he's had some good matchups along the way and hasn't taken advantage of it. Have the Falcons been better against running backs the last two weeks? You know, I think so. They haven't been a total disaster. Gus Edwards, 21 carries, 82 yards. Aaron Jones, 17 for 78 and a touchdown, three catches, 28 yards. That's a great game.
Starting point is 00:59:19 But it's not like 150 yards or anything like that, which isn't out of the question with the Falcons. However, why do I bring that up? Deion Jones returned for those two games. So they're probably a little bit better against running backs. And that Cardinals offensive line just continues to take hits.
Starting point is 00:59:36 Yeah. It's a terrible front five. Why do we have him top 12, then? I don't think it's that good. The Falcons defense. Oh, it's not. He was saying the line is so bad for the Cardinals. Sure.
Starting point is 00:59:56 But bad versus bad, take the talent. Dalvin Cook or David Johnson? Dalvin Cook. Cook. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Dante Pettis, or David Johnson? Johnson. Dalvin Cook. Cook. DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Dante Pettis, or David Johnson? Johnson. I think it's close in PPR with Moore. I think I'll still say David Johnson.
Starting point is 01:00:17 Kenny Galladay or David Johnson? Johnson. Okay, and that's pretty much it for this game. If Hooper plays, do you have any interest in him? No. No, because I think the Falcons will be okay at running the football. And the Atlanta DST is not a bad streamer. 11th for Jamie, 8th for Dave, 14th for Heath.
Starting point is 01:00:37 They're 41% owned. Two more games, fellas. Tennessee is at the Giants. Stat of the game. We haven't talked about Evan Ingram much. He's about 70-something percent owned. Very specific. Tennessee allows the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
Starting point is 01:00:51 They also have faced almost no good tight ends. They've faced Zach Ertz and he had 112 yards. But they held Eric Ebron to zero catches. What's your interest level in Evan Ingram this week? This is all. All right, if Beckham plays, then Beckham and Barkley are starts, and that's it. If Beckham doesn't play, then Shepard and Ingram become more
Starting point is 01:01:09 interesting. So in that scenario, what about Ingram? Well, first of all, let's just make it clear that the game that Eric Ebron went catchless against Tennessee, he didn't even have any targets, which is just rare. That was the game where he tried to throw a touchdown, I believe.
Starting point is 01:01:27 Yeah. Anyway, Evan Ingram has had an explosive play each of his last two games. I think volume will be mediocre. Might be good for about 8 or 9 PPR points. I would try to stay away if you can
Starting point is 01:01:42 no matter Beckham in or out. The Titans have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end all season. They're the only team to do that. So the upside is minimal, in my opinion. All right, Mariota. How come you guys are a little low on him, considering 25 or 26 fantasy points in four of his last five games, the only exception being the Jaguars?
Starting point is 01:02:02 I just think they're going to run. I do, too. I agree. And, you know, I'm stuck starting him in the Superflex League, but I don't like... Mariota in cold weather is a bad track record. But I do think that he's been playing pretty well, and the Giants have actually struggled against mobile quarterbacks, but there are too many good options.
Starting point is 01:02:25 I understand Mariota outside of the top 20. Dion Lewis. Any interest in Dion Lewis? No. Corey Davis. I'm okay with him as a fence sitter between number two and number three receiver. Yeah, I'd try to sit him if you can.
Starting point is 01:02:42 His numbers have not exactly been great with Taewon Taylor on the field. Do you like him better than Taewon Taylor, though? Slightly. Jamie's got Ferkser 10th, Dave has him 16th, Heath 18th. That's a non-PPR. And PPR, 10th, 14th, and 18th.
Starting point is 01:03:00 Yeah, I'm excited about him. I've moved him up. He's 13th for me and not vpr all right yeah not a bad i just i can't do it with jimmy graham anymore i just think you look at the overall numbers of what the two tight ends have been doing in the last month so the last three games coming into last week right your whole argument has been the role of the tight end in the tennessee offense and what it's been and now firxer should get a lot of that i hope he does i'm just i'm worried about just how many targets he'll end up getting well i don't think you're getting the tight end in the Tennessee offense and what it's been. And now Ferkser should get a lot of that. I hope he does. I'm just,
Starting point is 01:03:27 I'm worried about just how many targets he'll end up getting. Well, I don't think you're getting more than seven or eight, but I mean, do you think you're even getting five? Yeah. I mean, he's been basically four with John on the field. All right.
Starting point is 01:03:36 He's got three catches. Huh? I don't think it's a slam dunk. He gets five targets, but if he does, I'd be surprised if he got less than five. Do you know what his catch rate is this year? A hundred percent. One hundred percent. That's pretty good, I'd be surprised if he got less than five. Do you know what his catch rate is this year? 100%.
Starting point is 01:03:45 100%. That's pretty good. I think the Giants win. Is that stupid? It's so funny that they're still mathematically alive. Any interest in Eli Manning, by the way? No. Nah. Okay, and your quick thoughts on Sterling Shepard? He had almost
Starting point is 01:04:02 nothing last week. That was disappointing, but I think he got Josh Norman a decent amount. I would imagine they're probably going to have to throw a little bit more this week. Look, the Titans are good against the run. They're not great, but they're good.
Starting point is 01:04:12 So if they just focus all their attention on Barkley and put Eli Manning in some of these third and long situations, that's the guy he's going to look at first. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:20 I think he... I don't know if you could tell me if we care, but I think he had a lot of Josh Norman last week. Two catches, 17 yards, and a touchdown on six targets for Sterling Shepard. I may have asked this, I apologize. Who's a better flex, Shepard or Henry?
Starting point is 01:04:35 Henry. I'll take Henry. Okay. One more game, Philadelphia at the Rams. This would have been, under normal circumstances, a bonanza. But I certainly, in good conscience, could not pick the Rams and the Eagles. And since I picked the Steelers two weeks ago, and I'm trying to go Survivor Pool style here, I will not pick the Patriots-Steelers game.
Starting point is 01:05:00 And guys, you know, this is a really tough week for a bonanza. So I'm not going to pick one. What? Nah, just kidding. I'm going to pick one. Over or under in this game is only 44 points. Seattle and San Francisco is your NFC West Bonanza. Alright, so
Starting point is 01:05:15 for San Francisco, you gotta get one of the running backs. Mullins, Pettis, Kittle, and I think if both running backs play, then no. I only need those three. No. You can't have Bonanza without a running back.
Starting point is 01:05:32 Well, Carson on the other side. Carson for sure. If we get six good fantasy options in that game, that's a Bonanza. By the way, I think this might be your boldest bonanza of the year. No. Last week's was that it was the worst ever. That was the Bears-Rams. But thank you, Dave.
Starting point is 01:05:54 I think that was a predictable bonanza. The result wasn't good. I don't think that was a bold prediction. I think this is kind of bold. Alright, Rams hosting the Eagles. Start all Rams, sit all Eagles other than Earths? Thank you very much.
Starting point is 01:06:09 That's the game. Okay. I mean, I want to dedicate a little bit more time. How do you feel about the wide receivers? Alshon Jeffery and Nick Foles had a nice little thing going last year. They did. It's great that they did.
Starting point is 01:06:26 I don't want to trust Alshon in this spot. I would imagine Aqib Talib will be assigned to him, and he will help take away some numbers from Alshon. He could always score. There's no doubt about that. I think he's matchup-proof when it comes to that, but I don't have the confidence to trust him this week. He's a number three receiver at the very, very best.
Starting point is 01:06:48 Josh Adams, if he'll get the carries, he'll probably have a nice game. The Rams are just terrible against the run. How many carries do you think he gets? I think they're chasing points, and it's going to be tough for him. 13. I take the under. Would you start a Bills running back over Josh Adams? I'd start McCoy if he plays, yeah.
Starting point is 01:07:10 Would you start Elijah? No, I don't really like either one. I think I would go McCoy, but I wouldn't want to start either one. Oh, no. Would you start Adams or Elijah McGuire? I think I'm going to end up saying McGuire. That's easy. Okay.
Starting point is 01:07:22 And then Goff is third for you guys. So it's time to get back on track for the Rams. Yep. Cool. Reynolds or Elijah McGuire? McGuire. McGuire will get more opportunities for sure. He might get more catches alone than Reynolds.
Starting point is 01:07:44 Are you going to move the Rams DST up only seventh, last I checked, for both of you guys? Probably not much more, if anything. Okay. But they should be in lineups. Any Rams tight end interest? No. Last thing.
Starting point is 01:08:04 Do you guys watch the Thursday night pregame show on Fox ever no they play a very fun game we do our own pregame show Adam thanks for watching they have a very fun game it's stray hand like hosts and it's
Starting point is 01:08:19 with Bradshaw and Howie Long we do a fun game too what do you play? If you watch, I would tell you. I thought you were going to say, got to go buy. Yeah, that would have been perfect. Got to go buy.
Starting point is 01:08:32 Well, anyway, I wanted to talk about it. I'm a company guy. I wouldn't leave you hanging like that. I wanted to talk about it, but now I'm not going to talk about it because you guys throw it out. So let's go Seahawks and Niners. Let's get some points. Talk to you on the mailbag on Saturday. Later, everybody.
Starting point is 01:08:45 You forgot that one guy, though. Oh, who's that? You know his name. His last name, Bai? No. Who? Middle name, Bai. Gotta go, Bai, jerk.
Starting point is 01:08:57 What the? Nah.

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