Fantasy Football Today - 12/16: Injury Updates, RBs to Trust, Dynasty QBs (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 16, 2019

Dr. David Chao gives you the latest on Dalvin Cook, A.J. Green and more. Then Will Brinson and Chris Towers join the show as we give you a quick T.Y. Hilton update (11:30) before getting into our big topics. Who is our favorite Waiver Wire player for Week 16 (14:00)? Can you trust James Conner for your championship (21:30)? Which young QBs are we excited about in Dynasty leagues (24:40)? Are Devin Singletary and Le'Veon Bell worth using in tough Week 16 matchups (30:30)? And we look at some rookie RBs who could have bigger roles in 2020.  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, you know the drill. On this Monday. We'll bring on Will and Chris in a little bit, talk about some big-time topics, some running backs that you might have trouble trusting in your fantasy championship, but we're glad you got there. Welcome to Week 16, or at least it will be in a few hours after the Saints and the Colts wrap up.

And we welcome you to the Fantasy Football Today Road Tour presented by Little Caesars. Pizza for dinner tonight? How about ordering your favorite online from Little Caesars and using Pizza Portal Pickup? It's the latest, greatest, and hottest way to pick up a pizza without even going to the register. And you know who's here?

It's Dr. David Chow, and I hope you've been following him on Twitter, at ProFootballDoc and ProFootballDoc.com. Great website, great information. He's going to help us out, and he's going to help us out with dalvin cook and of course they're optimistic about dalvin cook playing and alexander madison didn't play and we need to know what to do with that vikings running back situation so what do you

think about dalvin cook in that bum shoulder well the thing is in game and we were actually doing a periscope and some live analysis there as they were showing replays as it timed out. It looked like a new injury. It did not look like the same SC joint injury that he's had before against Denver and then flared up against the Seahawks there. And in some ways, people are going to say, oh, no, another injury, that's horrible.

But I actually take it as good news for two reasons. Number one, what you don't want is him being a China doll every time he takes a hit with that SC joint sprain. And I think it's starting to be behind him. This one was more of a scare, and it seemed to be his left shoulder, which is really the other side. And by video, I can't tell you exactly what he did because we didn't see a lot. There wasn't a lot of contact.

It wasn't a pec tear. It wasn't a shoulder dislocation. I'm hoping that it's more of a scare and minor. And as such, I think he was held out of the game just to be safe because of the pending big matchup against the Packers on Monday night this coming week. So I think Dalvin Cook is going to be okay. Right. And the score was so lopsided, they didn't have to bring him back in. More injuries. I'll ask you about Chris Godwin in a little bit, but Odell Beckham, he did lead his team in receiving against the Cardinals.

Still was not a great game. He plans to play the last two games of the season. Should we approach him as a guy who's just, I guess how close to a hundred percent do you think Odell Beckham is? I really, the question. I mean, I think if it weren't Odell Beckham, he wouldn't be good enough to be on the field because it is Odell Beckham.

Well, let's say he's at 80%. He's still good enough to be on the field. He's just not Odell Beckham. Let's say he's at 80%. He's still good enough to be on the field. He's just not Odell Beckham. And that's what a core muscle injury will do to you. So he'll undoubtedly have surgery in the offseason. And if you have him now and you were disappointed with him, when you draft next year, don't hold that against him

because this is going to be fixed and he should be better in terms of his core muscle injury. And you think it's been bothering him all year, I mean, based on what Baker Mayfield said and, you know. Yeah, I think so. I think he's been slowed all year. And quite honestly, for as much grief as the guy gets sometimes publicly and socially, I mean, he's sucking it up and playing through.

He's not shutting it down. So if you could go back in time now and think about preseason when we first got the injury to A.J. Green, do you remember how long you thought he'd be out? Because he's got a chance to come back in week 16. Do you remember what you thought about A.J. Green at the time? Yeah. At the time, there was initial reports that he'd only miss a game or two. And I said, hogwash, he's going to miss more than that. But I did buy into missing the

first eight games and then coming back after that bye week. I thought that's when he would come back. And when there were reports of soreness and stiffness, I was like, yeah, I don't know that I'd buy it. But that one pregame warm-up about week 10 or something, I went, wow, he's not close to ready. That's when I said he was at least another month away. And now he's even longer than that because he's told everyone, at this point, I'm going to come back when I'm 100%, not less than that. And that's why it's taken this long. At this point, whether it's week 16 or 17, it turns out to be

a free agent audition or showcase. Yeah. It'd be interesting to see if people trust him at Miami. Obviously, a great matchup, but you think if he plays, we can trust at least a little bit that he is going to be healthy,

not going to be a situation where he has to come out of the game or anything like that. No, I think if he plays, I think you probably can trust him as much as you can trust a guy taking the field for the first time all season. But still, AJ Green, it's Andy Dalton throwing to him, and I think you can trust him. Okay, well, that's also good to know. If DJ Chark plays,

would you have confidence in him? He missed week 15. He's doing some running on Monday. He's at Atlanta in week 16. What kind of injury is DJ Chark looking at? How healthy could he be? Well, he's got a,

by video, a high ankle sprain. It's not the worst one in the world, but it's my feeling that he will not play. So I don't think it's going to be a situation where you even have to worry about it. I mean, there's no reason to push through a high ankle. That's 85 or 90% when your team's already out of it. You don't want to make it worse for the off season. So I actually do not think he will play now. If for some reason he does play, I guess you could utilize him because I don't think he's going to play if he's not closer to 100%.

But I do not think he will play. And last one I want to ask you about is Chris Godwin, and it doesn't seem like he's going to be back this year, this season, and he'll join Mike Evans there. But what did you see with Chris Godwin? Well, a hamstring injury. As we talked about last week when Mike Evans got it, I think he's probably going on IR.

There's only three games left, and he is. Chris Godwin, now there's only two games left. And I think he's going to go on IR too. And obviously in the first quarter of the game, Scott Miller went out with a hamstring as well. And so Jameis Winston, hats off to him. I don't know how he threw for 458 yards. I mean, he only had Paramon to throw.

And, uh, you know, that's an interesting play for your fantasy people. I'm not a fantasy guy, but Winston seems to be throwing the ball a lot. Bruce Aaron seems to be having to throw a ball a lot. And he's got no Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, two of the best. And then, uh, even Scott Miller, although he's not as, as, uh, as well utilized, but Paramin's the, the number one, two, and potentially number three guy. Oh yeah. In terms of wide receiver targets. We're definitely going to talk about, uh,

Brashad Perryman with Will and Chris and yeah, it looks like Scott Miller is going to have an MRI on that hamstring, but, um, yeah, it really, you know, last week was so rough with injuries for the offensive players. Not so much this week. So I guess that's good for you. A little bit of an early Christmas present. Not a horrible week 15 for you, Dr. Chow.

It's always good. I always root for players to be healthy. I mean, like Dalvin Cook, I'm glad it doesn't seem like it's much. I hate it when it is a big thing. So, Dr. Chow, thanks so much for coming on. Not sure.

I hope we talk to you next week. If not, I want to wish you a happy holiday and hopefully we'll talk to you next week. But it's been great having you on this year and great advice. Thank you very much. Thank you. All right, we'll take a quick break

on fantasy football today and come back with Will and Chris. Metrolinx and Crosslininks are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton Crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe.

Welcome back, everybody. Okay, we got big topics here with Chris Towers and Will Brinson. What's up, Chris Towers? How are we doing? I'm great. How about you, Adam? I am good. I assumed I had lost. You didn't say more than that. Yeah, I did. That's fine. I'll take it from here.

I thought I was going to lose a matchup yesterday. Seemed over. Didn't even check. Then I forgot that I'm playing in a league that has the wackiest scoring ever. My opponent had the Rams DST. They scored negative 12 points points and I am onward to the next round. Negative 12. That's negative 12.

That's bad. That's pretty bad. But good for me. So I'm in a good mood. I'm happy about that. I won two out of three leagues in week 15. And now we bring on our third member of the crew. He gets a round of applause.

Oh, I didn't realize I had a live version of this. This is terrible. We have to wait so long to get to the payoff. What's up, Will? I'll just bring you on now. What is the payoff? The chorus of the song, but she's walking on stage.

There's a piano intro. Here we go. This is incredible. Just gripping. I've been listening to Christmas music all day, Will. So I figured this is one of your favorites. Hi, Will. Hello, Adam.

All right, let's get into the topics. Are you running around? Because you did that video of you doing push-ups, and you're in complete pile gear, like a sweatshirt, basketball shorts, and really bright white ankle socks. It stood out as supremely, I don't even know how to describe it, but just a very lack of concern about what you would look like when you were presented on video camera.

And I'm wondering, were you dancing around like that while listening to Christmas music all day? Uh, no, but I would have, I wouldn't be opposed to it because my son would have enjoyed it. Will you just get to the chorus already for God's sake? Like jam out. Oh, this is a lousy version of this song okay anyway

adam when you posted the video of you doing the push-ups because you're just wearing socks and right it's a hardwood floor it looks like i don't know if it's actual wood it could be like a linoleum or something that's made to look like wood. It's not actual wood, no. That's not a great way to do push-ups. You need some friction on your feet. So I have to ask. Sure. Did you have your feet pushed up against the back of the couch?

You know, I didn't. For a second, I considered doing it, but then I said no. That didn't occur to me. And then my feet touched the couch and I said, oh, this would actually be very helpful. But I decided not to go that route. I did them honestly. You just don't often see people doing push-ups in socks. You know what? I didn't know that because I never do any push-ups.

So I've been exposed. All right, guys. Let's get to fantasy football here. Bonus topic, and then we'll get into the five big topics of the day. Bonus topic, in case anyone's listening right now, on Monday before the game, start or sit T.Y. Hilton tonight if he plays uh like okay now the question is sorry Hilton or Paschal because people could be I'm deciding that it doesn't matter because I'm gonna win anyway if if you have T.Y. Hilton I hope you have Zach Paschal too I do that's what I'm saying if if they both, who do you prefer? A banged up Hilton or who would in theory get Marshawn Lattimore or Zach Paschal? I think I would go Paschal either way.

I think if Hilton plays, you have to play him. It seems like he shouldn't play from what they've talked about. It seems like it's a kind of situation where he's forcing his way back before he should we saw that in the texans game he had what two catches and then left the game um but if he's active pascal's been so non-existent really when hilton's been active that i just i don't think you can rely on that offense for a number two wide receiver yeah i think pasal's a little safer though because, well, I'm trying to look. Hilton played against Atlanta. You're right, Chris. He really hasn't been. You know the one game that he had a big game? There was, I think, one game

where Hilton played and Paschal had a big game. I'm sorry. I know I had this somewhere. I did this last week just to see the scenario. Can Pasch Pascal be good with Hilton playing? The answer is usually no, but the Lattimore thing sort of gets to me a little bit because I feel like Pascal might benefit from Hilton playing, but I'm not sure. So Will says Pascal, Chris says Hilton. I'll say Hilton because he's TY Hilton and he'll probably get more targets. We have an Apple podcast mailbag. If you have any questions, you can send them in on Apple podcast. I'll read some on Wednesday's show. And we have a lot of other podcasts that you should be listening to and rating on Apple podcasts and all over wherever you listen. Will Brinson's show, Pick

Six is awesome. It is a bona fide, one of the best sports podcasts out there. So check it out. Go to cbssports.com slash podcast to see a list of all our shows. All right, now onto our real five big topics. Number one, who is your favorite waiver wire player for week 16, Chris Towers? So there it's the Minnesota Vikings backup running back. And it just depends on which one that is. It's Alexander Madison. If he plays for sure, there's no question about it. I think he's about 60% owned right now, but he missed week 15 with an ankle injury. It seemed like the kind of thing earlier in the week. It sounded like he was going to play. And then he ended up just sitting it out. That makes me think he'll be okay to go for week 16. But if not, it would be Mike Boone who was an undrafted free agent last season but really

impressive uh athletic testing numbers at the combine pretty fast good pass catcher in college never was a full-time back but we saw him get 14 carries yesterday scored two touchdowns this is the kind of situation where whoever gets the the bulk of the work as the lead running back in this offense they're going to be a must-start option. I think if Alexander Madison plays, he's a top-12 guy. If Mike Boone plays, he's probably a top-15. All of that assuming that Dalvin Cook's shoulder injury, which looked more serious yesterday than the last time we saw him leave a game,

is serious enough to keep him out, which I would expect it to. All right, well, how about you? He's taking the Minnesota running back. Who are you taking number one on waivers this week? Yeah, I would say that, you know, obviously his position depended on who you need, but Mike Boone is a great add. He's a violent runner.

They're going to be committed to running the ball. Green Bay is terrible against the run. It's a critical game on a Monday night. That's the one downside I would say, too, though. If you pick up Mike Boone, be, you know, you're picking him up for your championship. You, whether it's Amber Alexander, Madison, or whether you have Dalvin cook, whatever it is, you need to remember that that is a Monday night game. So you need to have some sort of contingency plan in place. Like you might not be able to wait until Monday. You know what I mean? To like definitively know if you can start Mike Boone.

So just be prepared with that as you move throughout the week and make sure you have a backup plan. Uh, I will take Brashad Perryman. Uh, Z UCF, Z UCF. Yes.

Yeah. Yeah. That just reminds me that UCF is trash and annoying. And, uh, Matt Brodsky loves to eat mayonnaise jars. Uh, anyway,

the, uh, that's our colleague, Matt Brodsky loves to eat mayonnaise jars. Anyway, that's our colleague Matt Brodsky. Perryman, former first round pick of course by Ozzie Newsome, one of the rare misses by Ozzie Newsome in the first round. Perryman taking with the Ravens. He is now on the Buccaneers. He got three touchdown passes for Jameis Winston. I thought that we would

see Justin Watson step in as sort of the Mike Evans replacement, but it was clear that Jameis has this connection with Prashad Perryman. He's found him a few times over the past few weeks. He seems like he's very comfortable with him. He's only earned 17% of CBS leagues going into Monday night. 113 yards and three touchdowns. He's got five of six targets.

He's done a better job catching the ball this year for Tampa Bay, and it looks like Chris Godwin's going to be missing too. So you're talking about a team that's going to be playing against the Texans in a game that opened up with an over-under of 53, really high total. There's going to be a ton of points scored. It's on a Saturday night. You can get out a good jump with a couple of Rashard Perryman touchdowns in your championship league.

I do think it's debatable between him and Anthony Miller. I like that he's the number one guy. Miller's clearly the number two guy. But, you know, the Bears getting the Chiefs at home, you figure there should be a lot of passing in that game. I know they're going to try to run the ball, but they have the same matchup with the Packers. And Trubisky threw a lot, and they were trailing, and both Miller and Robinson went over 100 yards.

Well, I don't mind. I think Miller's a great player, and I think it's a good pickup, but I would say this, that the Chiefs pass defense, I think everybody's a little slow to adapt at how good the Chiefs pass defense really is. Oh, I've been saying it, yep. I mean, have you? Well, this is what I say, Will.

I think it's very home road dependent they are lights out against wide receivers at home remember i gave you that i think i gave you that stat and you scoffed at it uh last week i think it was maybe it's a different stat yeah you were there was some stat i gave and you were like what does that matter you idiot oh it was about the cowboys it was the cowboys' home road splits. No, the Chiefs have been amazing against wide receivers at home. This will be a road game for them. They're not as good on the road, but they are good. The thing I would say that I think is sort of irrelevant with the matchup

is he does have 52 targets over the last five games. He was basically a non-factory. He had 30 targets in the first, what's that, nine games, and then 52 over the last five games. He was basically a non-factor. He had 30 targets in the first, what's that, nine games, and then 52 over the last five. And he was coming off the shoulder surgery in the offseason, had an ankle injury in training camp. Seems like it took him some time. But this was a guy that we liked a lot this time last year as a potential breakout candidate. Season ended last year with that shoulder injury early. I think he's coming on strong he's clearly he is the number two and Perriman would be the number one the only thing for me is he did only have six targets and you know OJ Howard had eight Godwin had seven before he left Cameron Brate had

seven if he's only getting six targets there's a chance that he has a two yard two catch 12 yard game last next week. Because he just... Well, because they're going to be long targets. And so they're going to be low-efficiency, high-upside targets. So there's a chance that he does go off for a big game. But there is also a chance... And Adam, I know this is a conversation that you and Ben Gretsch have a lot on the podcast.

And I'm sure... I know Ben is going to really like Prashad Perryman as an ad this week. And there's going to be a lot of upside there. It just, it's the kind of play that could bust for you. I think there's probably a little bit of safety with it. It's just, this feels like exactly what I said about A.J. Brown last week. Because it really depends on how much

you think they're going to throw. And they always, they always think they're going to throw. Give me. They always throw a lot. My adopted son, A.J. Brown. I don't know how Bershad Perryman gets six targets. I think he's getting a lot more than that now with Goblin out. By the way, Jameis Winston was 8 of 11, 101 yards, and one touchdown, including a 25-yard touchdown pass to Perryman after Chris Godwin's injury.

Okay, I'll give you two more names real quick. Jacob Hollister is facing the Cardinals, and Kerryon Johnson could come back to face the Broncos. But we have a full waiver wire show tomorrow, and we'll get into that. Hey, how about the fact that David Njoku is a healthy scratch for the for the for the Browns like before that game I had to be DFS

I'd like I had to move to to Higby for the ranch worked out fine but like but Ricky still Jones still got two touchdowns like are you kidding me these tight it's unbelievable it's we've never I don't know we've ever seen anything like it I can't

imagine there's been it I swear I feel like they're the worst ever against tight ends. I'd love to find that out. It's basically like tight ends against them are Rob Gronkowski's best season. That's what I'm saying. The numbers are like stark. They're like the exact same production. All right, guys. Quick question.

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Give it a try, but it's only available at Little Caesars Pizza Pizza. Next topic, James Conner started in just 26% of leagues in week 15. He came through because of a touchdown, but he had just 12 touches, 51 total yards, eight carries for 42 yards against the Bills. He did score a touchdown. He basically dominated on that drive, made a beautiful move, I think on Micah Hyde, and then he caught that touchdown, broke a tackle. He was great. But how much do you trust James Conner in Week 16 at the Jets,

who you could argue have the best run defense in football, if you're willing to forget what you just saw against Baltimore? Will, how much do you trust James Conner? Well, I think the Buccaneers have the best run defense in football. Just really quickly, I'd point out that not only are they good against the run, but

because they pass so much and they're so bad against the pass, and they can't run either, it literally forces you also to pass and not to run the ball. From that perspective, I would say the Bucs. But yeah, the Jets are right up there. That was a weird sort of aberration. I think it's probably more

of what we saw from Baltimore than anything else. So yeah, I mean, I think it's probably more of, of what we saw from Baltimore than anything else. So, yeah, I mean, I think you can probably trust James Connor, but you're not probably not feeling good about it. Remember,

this is a must win game, uh, for the Steelers. I know that every game at this time of year sort of is, but this is a, a big, big, big,

big, big game for the Steelers if they want to make the playoffs. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if they sort of, you know, like try to get it out of duck Hodges hand in the way that they didn't do against the bills chris yeah I mean he still played 58 of the snaps that's not far off from where he was earlier in the season when he was healthy I I tend to want to give guys especially coming back from an injury like this that you know ultimately ended up costing him really six weeks. He was back for just a handful of snaps in week 11.

I always want to give guys a get-back game. And so if I have the opportunity to not start James Conner in the first game back from an injury, I would prefer that. And so I think we'll see more of him. Five targets, I'm happy with that. It only turned into nine yards. But most of the time, that's going to be 30 to 40 yards with the way he usually produces catching the ball. So I feel better about it coming a week after he makes his return. Yeah. If you're going to do well against the Jets, you either need to

do it as a pass catcher or you need volume. Six running backs have had 15 or more carries against the Jets. Five of them scored 12 or more non-PPR fantasy points, and you'll take that. But is Conor going to get 15 carries? He typically doesn't. He's had one game this year with more than 55 rushing yards, but he obviously right now is the guy that they should be focusing on offensively. So it was really criminal that they didn't give him the ball more

and that they just let Duck Hodges throw as much as they did. But, you know, like Chris said, said get back game get one under your belt and he's definitely going to be at least in the flex conversation i'm guessing he'll be a top 24 running back but not by much like i don't think he's going to be top 15 in the rankings this week just to guess chris are the rankings are the rankings i mean i would rather have whatever vikings guy you can get your hands on than James Conner. Right. Sure.

I would too. All right. Let's talk a little dynasty here. Which rookie or second-year quarterback do you like most in dynasty leagues other than Lamar Jackson? Who would it be? Chris Towers. I think it's got to be Kyler Murray. I know.

It's so easy. He's the, I think, number seven in four-point-per-passing touchdown scoring right now, and he's number nine in six-point in CBS scoring. That's really good when you consider, you know, he only has 17 passing touchdowns, and this comes back to, I can't remember, someone refers to it as the Konami code for fantasy

with quarterbacks who run the ball. We're seeing the best case possible. Is that our boy Rich Rebar? Yeah, it is. Lord Reeves. And we're seeing the best case scenario of it with Lamar Jackson, but Kyler Murray is second in the league in rushing yards for quarterbacks, just ahead of Josh Allen.

I just think there is the potential next season for seven, 800 rushing yards, 3,500 to 4,000 passing yards. He's probably going to get to 3,500 this year. And all you need then is just him to be an average quarterback when it comes to scoring passing touchdowns. And all of a sudden you've got a B plus version of what Lamar Jackson's doing this year. I think it's, it's the obvious answer. Yeah. I would say, yeah, I mean, look, it is Kyler. It, I mean, that's the answer. Yeah. The other thing too, is that like, if you want to play the regression game, I'm sure this will happen plenty of this off season, but look at how bad the Cardinals were early on in the red zone when Cliff would kick on, like, like they had,

they'd leave the league by far in terms of like field goals under 30 yards. He was willing to always throw in the red zone. You know, he doesn't have his Christian Kirk, but it has Larry Fitzgerald older, just not a ton of weapons there. And so I think that Kyler in theory should be due for a big touchdown bump in terms of his passing. I mean, the dude has 482 passing attempts and 17 passing touchdowns. Like that's a crazy disparity. Whereas Lamar Jackson, three 70 and 33 touchdowns. I'm not trying to compare

the two. Lamar is the guy you would take obviously between all these guys. Um, I think Josh Allen's worth a look to the one concern I would have about Josh Allen is that, um, when you look at Allen, you know, he, he's got less rushing yards this year, 4.6 yards per carry, certainly down from what it was last year, nine rushing touchdowns, which is a ton. They love using him in the red zone, but how reliable is that going to be year to year and week to week? Cam Newton we've seen is maybe the one quarterback where you could count on it at all times. And then I think with Allen is, are they ever going to open up this offense? Will they get pieces

in place to really try to crank up this offense to be something that's high octane or will they always sort of be a conservative defense first team? I would guess when you look at the coaching between the two, Sean McDermott, much more conservative, typically defensive. He's a defensive coach. That's where he

comes from. And then Cliff Kingsbury, I think, has actually gotten a lot better at being an offensive coach and a game planning and game management coach as the year has gone on. So I'm pretty bullish on the future for Kyler. Yeah, Kyler seems like the obvious answer here, but I did want to give Josh Allen some love because he is scoring more points per game than Kyler Murray.

Obviously, he's in his second season, and we see a lot of improvement in quarterbacks in their second season. The passer ratings of the rookie quarterbacks this year are pretty good. I mean, Sam Darnold was worse in terms of a passer than Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray and even Drew Locke. Those three guys have... Locke hasn't thrown that many passes, but they have quarterback ratings around 85, 86. That's not bad. Baker Mayfield was at 93.7. That's what I think is so interesting here is that we're not considering,

are we not considering Baker Mayfield? Because this time last year, I mean, he was definitely the answer. He was the answer ahead of Lamar Jackson, ahead of everyone. He looked like a rising star. He was going in the fifth round of drafts. He was the fifth or sixth quarterback off the board. Absolutely. So, boy, he really has regressed.

And he's had a lot of bad luck, too. You know, last I saw, he was leading the NFL in tipped interceptions. So there's been some bad luck. I think he had another one of those yesterday, actually. And I'm hoping that Odell beckham stays obviously just because that would be a better player for uh baker mayfield but also just i want to see what what they can do with a full year together you know for for as much as we make fun of eli manning he did get to play odell beckham did get to play with Eli Manning for, what, five full seasons? And then he

has to play with his first new quarterback. Yes, Baker Mayfield, we would assume, is more talented than late-career Eli Manning, but changing teams is really tough. And just also for Odell Beckham's sake, I hope he stays. We talked about this on the Pick 6 podcast, my daily

NFL podcast, eight shows a week. You should check it out. That one. Jason Lockerford thinks there could be a lot of changes coming there, specifically the pick six podcast my daily nfl podcast eight shows a week you should check it out podcast that one um jason lockham for thinks there could be a lot of changes coming there uh like specifically there's just people talking like there's concern about baker there's like odell beckham's not even really the concern there's a ton of concern about freddie kitchens and todd munkin and uh you know ryan lindley the the quarterback's coach like what what they have like are they the right guys around baker to make him work and i think that that might ultimately be, you know, the Haslam's didn't fire Hugh Jackson after going 1-31 over two years.

But this might be a more egregious sin is ruining a number one overall pick and a guy who could have easily been the rookie of the year last year and clearly his flash talent in Baker Mayfield. And so you have to wonder, will they be willing to go out and try to look for another coach who can come in and make the most out of Baker's talents? Because what the thing with the Browns is, and we mentioned that I mentioned this on the podcast,

Mary Kay Cabot told us this before the season, they, they don't, they didn't like this down the stretch last year, they had an offense that catered to Baker skillset. And then they rebuilt an entirely new offense and it just doesn't work with what Baker wants to do. And they don't, there's no, there's, it's just, it's just a disastrous offense. And so I think there's an opportunity to buy low here. If you want to try to go after Baker Mayfield,

probably get him for all the pennies and dynasty. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on him. All right, let's go. We got two more topics to go here. Who do you trust in a tough matchup? I have a Twitter poll for this one. Who do you trust in a tough matchup in week 16, half PPR? Raheem Mostert against the Rams, Devin Singletary at New England, and Le'Veon Bell against Pittsburgh. The Twitter poll results have Mostert in the lead with 54% of the votes. So Mostert against the Rams.

And that's the guy, I mean, if you're lucky, he gets two catches. Devin Singletary at New England and Le'Veon Bell against Pittsburgh. But right now, Mostert is running away with it. Chris, do you agree? Raheem Mostert would be the most trustworthy there? Yeah, I mean, he doesn't have Adam Gase as his coach, for one. And he's not going against Bill Belichick. So both of those help.

And I just, it's really curious that the San Francisco Giants, San Francisco 49ers, went back to Tevin Coleman as the starter yesterday. Used him for one drive at the beginning of the first half, one drive at the end of the first half, one drive at the beginning of the second half, and that's it.

Yeah, you're playing your old team, you get to start. I don't know if that's true, but it could have been. Yeah, it's tough to know what to make of that because what if Tevin Coleman had ripped off that 37-yard run in the first drive of the game? Would they have stuck with him? My guess is not Raheem Mostert's been so effective, even in relatively limited playing time. He was 53% of the snaps this week. I think that's probably around where you should expect him, but he's been so good that I just think he's the best player of this group right now. I think Le'Veon Bell is probably the best talent, but that situation is just a disaster.

Touchdown in four straight games for Raheem Mostert. The other options were Singletary at New England and Bell against his former team, the Steelers. Will, who do you think is the most trustworthy? Well, I mean, I think trustworthy is such a rough word for these two guys. Who would you start? I don't know who's trustworthy. Here's what I would do. I would look at these two games and say San Francisco, L.A.

has an over-under of 46, and the Jets and Steelers have an over-under of 38, and I would take the team with the higher over-under because you've got more upside to get a touchdown. Yeah. That's going to be really a big change for me in how I evaluate games is incorporating over-unders more. You should. No, you should,

but you shouldn't be completely beholden to it because Devin Singletary, over under in that game last night was one of the lowest of the year, right? Or was it the lowest of the year? Pittsburgh Buffalo. No, there's been like a 36 or something out there. All right. It was really low.

And Devin Singletary got 23 touches. And he did not score, unfortunately, but he almost did. So he came up a yard short and then Josh Allen snuck it in. So touches matter more to me than over under yeah but just in the offseason because it's not just well this one has a higher over under because if a game has a really high over under but a team's also a 14 point underdog somehow you're not going to want to start a running back who runs the ball like mark ingram isn't the guy that you would start in that situation. But someone like Devin Singletary, who does catch the ball a little bit, you know, that's a different thing. Well, but, but you don't need to look, you don't need to think about the over-under as a

blind logic on how to do it. You need to think about how does the over-under play into what the game script is going to be. For instance, like Chris pointed out, you have a team that's a 14 point, there's a 14 point favorite, right? Huge favorite, right? A huge favorite and a high over-under. What that means is that the team that's the favorite probably has a questionable passing defense, and the team who's the dog is probably going to be chasing points. So at that point, you have to consider, like, do I want to start this running back?

Whereas last night with a 37.5 over-under, it doesn't mean no offense is going to happen. It just means you're probably going to run the ball a ton. So yeah, Devin Singletary is going to get touches, but you have to realize that you're probably looking at a five touchdown max, or let's say six touchdowns max in that game. I mean, you're not going to see it go to 49 or anything like that. And so you have to figure out where those touchdowns are going to come from.

And if you're deciding to play Devin Singletary, you have to be aware that in the red zone with his fumbling that he's had, and he's fumbled twice more last year or last night, that they might go to Josh Allen, they might go to Frank Gore. And that's sort of the risk-reward you have to weigh there. All right. And then for Le'Veon Bell, there has not been one running back with more than 13 fantasy points all year

in non-PPR and only one in PPR. So that was against the Steelers. in non-PPR and only one in PPR. So that was against the Steelers. So did you just argue that Devin Singletary was a great start? You just pointed out that nobody scores against the Steelers? No. Well, Le'Veon's playing the Steelers. I know, but Devin Singletary played the Singles Steelers.

Yeah, he would have. Well, he fumbled, so he got down to six points. If he had scored that touchdown, he would have been at – if he had scored a touchdown and not fumbled, he would have been at, he fumbled, so he got down to six points. If he had scored that touchdown, he would have been at. If he had scored a touchdown and not fumbled, he would have been at 14 non-PPR fantasy points, which would have been the best game of any running back all year against the Steelers. But you do realize that you're proving my point, right? No, I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with your point.

No, no, no, but I'm just saying that's the thing. You look at that over under at 37.5, and you have to say, okay, there's only going to be so much juice you can squeeze from this orange. I understand. Yeah. No, I get it. I agree. All right, this is from Malachi, our last one.

Let's talk about dynasty stashes and best rookie running backs to hold onto that could perform next year and didn't do much this year, like Justice Hill. People love Justice Hill. I'm just not sure that it's ever going to happen for him in a feature role. He's just too small, I think. But I guess he's interesting. But do you guys feel like there are any rookie running backs

who paid their dues as rookies and could get more work as sophomores? Okay, so that's a different question. The first one that came to mind for me was actually David Montgomery. He's gotten a ton of work. He's just been miserable. He actually, his stat line is going to look pretty similar to what Le'Veon Bell did as a rookie.

And you remember Le'Veon Bell's first season with Pittsburgh was terribly inefficient. I think it was like 3.6 yards per carry. Caught a decent number of passes, but just didn't look very good. Now, obviously there was a situation with him where I think he lost a bunch of weight, got in really good shape coming off his rookie season. Not necessarily the same thing with David Montgomery, but I just think we'll see a more effective version of David Montgomery next season. You can look at Melvin Gordon as another guy who got a lot better in his second season. That's the kind of one that I would look at. Another one, let's throw Darwin Thompson out

there. I'm not sure he's ever going to be a feature back. And it's a little disappointing that they haven't given him more opportunities with Damian Williams out there, but you just want a piece of this Kansas city offense. Like they haven't gotten a ton out of their running backs this year, but historically Andy Reed's running backs have been super effective. And, and I think we'll see more of that next season. So if Darwin Thompson gets a chance to be the feature guy, I'll want a lot of him. Yeah, I think that's a great call, especially when you look at, I mean, look, Damian Williams got a two-year contract extension, but it's not like he's, you know, I mean, locked in. They can cut him next year and he is $533,000 in dead caps

base. So they would actually save like one or $2.3 million by cutting him. There is something to think about there. LeSean McCoy, maybe he plays another year, but I can't see him having some massive role. Thompson is a guy that could end up being the guy. You're talking about next year you're coming in with maybe a healthy offensive line. I like that spot. Hill, I don't think I would be quite as down

on. It's kind of a similar setup. They're going to have Lamar Jackson for a long time. They're probably going to operate a similar offense. You know, they'll, they'll change it up a little bit, maybe be more pass heavy, but Hill's big thing. And I've talked about this repeatedly throughout the course of the year. The Ravens targeted running backs for this offense that are really good at a shotgun. If you look at the sports info solution numbers, Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill,

while he's at Oklahoma State, all were top five, top 10 guys in terms of running out of the shotgun. And so I think over the long haul, yeah, Justice Hill could be very valuable. He's a guy that you don't want to have for Dynasty for like next year, probably, unless something happens to Mark Ingram. But he's a guy that in two years or three years could be a big boon to have on your team. Mark Ingram will be 31.

Yeah, sure. And he's not like a touch hog either. I mean, they rotate those guys in there. Daryl Henderson will see a bigger role, I think, next year for the Rams. Damian Harris could be the starting one. He could be great next year. I mean, Sonny Michel has just been really bad. But those guys were third-round picks.

I'm sure they're owned in Dynasty. I'd be interested to see what happens with Leonard Fournette. Do you think there's any chance they get rid of Leonard Fournette and we could see Rykel Armstead? They'd probably draft someone. Fournette's had a really good year, but he was sort of on the chopping block last year. There are going to be some changes

I would assume in Jacksonville. He doesn't guarantee money after this year, right? I don't know. Next year is not his fifth-year option, is it? No, next year will be his fourth season. No, I guess not. 2020. So this offseason, they'll pick up his fifth-year option.

So then they'll have him for 2020 and then 2021 on his fifth-year option. And so, yeah, I mean, like, that would be something worth looking at because I think it would be fairly surprising. I mean, he's unfortunately already 25 years old. That's why you don't draft old running backs coming out of college. We don't know who's going to be in charge of the Jaguars next, but it would be surprising

if they gave Leonard Fournette a massive contract. And then do you think the Steelers are really invested in James Conner? Not with the kind of season he's had. Benny Snell's there. And let me just wrap up. I'm sorry,

because Kadri Olison is another guy. Like, I could see Devante Freeman being out in Atlanta. But again, I think they probably get someone else.

I'm not sure they're turning the keys to the car over to Kadri Olesen. Freeman is like, this would be the offseason where there's an out. It would probably be after the 2020 season in terms of his contract. They can only save $3.5 million by cutting him this offseason. They can save $6.25

million by cutting him next offseason. Alright, well there are basically all the rookie running backs that might be available in your dynasty leagues. Stash. You should stash Christian McCaffrey. I don't know. I don't see. He can't really run in between the tackles, Will.

A lot of work. Exactly. Touches. Too many touches. You're going to get worn down. All right, guys. Thank you so much for listening. That's Will Brinson and Chris Towers.

Thanks to Dr. David Chow. We got the waiver wire tomorrow, and we'll talk to you then on Fantasy Football Today.