Fantasy Football Today - 12/18: Week 16 Tough Calls (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 18, 2019

Who are you struggling to put in your lineup this week? We start the show with some of the toughest calls of the week and then get to 15 more difficult decisions for your championship game later in th...e show. First, we talk about a way to make Week 16 more interesting if you've been eliminated (11:30) and go through the news and notes (14:00) with a lot of Dalvin Cook and Mike Boone talk. And we read your Apple Podcast questions (19:05) ... Tough calls at QB (24:15), RB (33:02) and WR (44:55). Start or Sit Drew Brees on the road? Andy Dalton in a great matchup? How about Aaron Jones in a tough matchup? Kenyan Drake after a huge game? John Brown with the toughest matchup of them all? And will A.J. Brown get "Lattimored" this week? ... We talk Dynasty RBs and WRs (52:25) and read a bunch of your questions ... Your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We've got 15 tough calls for week 16, but really I should think of a bonus one because probably Heath shouldn't it be 16 tough calls for week 16. That would have made more sense. It also would have made more sense if you would have chosen players that were like on the border of starting from my rankings, which you didn't do,
Starting point is 00:01:41 but we'll have fun with it anyway. I'm guessing that I chose players that are mostly starts for you. I don't know. I just looked through the list and thought, wow, that guy is in my top six and that guy is not in my top 20. Well, sorry about that.
Starting point is 00:01:58 Ben Gretch, what's going on, man? I too was confused by the list, but we'll get into that. It seems like just some random players like I think I'm going to ask you this Ben you've looked at week 16 schedule a little bit and you know
Starting point is 00:02:14 who big names are and who tough matchups are and all those things if you could think of one quarterback that you might put on the tough call list this week who would it be uh i mean the first first guy that comes to mind for me is it's jamis winston for some reason just because he's kind of banged up and his whole receiving core is banged up but i think you're probably playing him perfect he is uh number 10 in my rankings yeah second person i think that
Starting point is 00:02:43 comes up is aaron rogers because he's facing min, but he's in primetime and he's Aaron Rodgers. No. Secondary hasn't actually been good. Then the third one I think is Ryan Fitzpatrick because he's facing the Bengals and he's actually been a popular streamer lately. And would you actually start him over some of these quarterbacks with big names like Jameis Winston and Aaron Rodgers? None of those three guys even made the list tough calls well here's why one because i asked dave and jamie about james winston yesterday we spent a lot of time talking about ryan fitzpatrick yesterday on the waiver wire show and aaron rogers like isn't even a consideration for me.
Starting point is 00:03:27 He's 15th, 16th, and 16th. He's a definitive sit, I would say. He just hasn't earned it. He's got to have a really good matchup, and he doesn't have that. Which is weird. The Vikings give up some of the most fantasy points to wide receivers, yet only the 10th most to quarterbacks. So that's worth investigating.
Starting point is 00:03:46 But I don't really consider them. Fitzpatrick's a tough call. Actually, no, you're right. Two of the three are tough calls in my opinion. I just talked about them on yesterday's show. So I think it's really on you, Heath, for not listening to the Waiver Wire show. No, that's not it. It's that Ben and I have our own valuable opinions. And yesterday we were talking about adding and dropping players. Today we're talking about whether we're going to start them in week 16.
Starting point is 00:04:07 And I'd like to know what Ben thinks. Okay. Ben, you would like to know what he thinks about someone specific, about those guys, or just in general? About tough calls. Well, that was my first question. Like if there is a tough call that you're going to have, I'm sure there will be many.
Starting point is 00:04:23 But which one stands out to you? Heath has already voiced his opinion on this. Ben, what's a week 16 tough call that you're going to have? I'm sure there will be many, but which one stands out to you? Heath has already voiced his opinion on this. Ben, what's a week 16 tough call? See, now we're already over 16 tough calls, so this is great. No, this is great because I also want Heath's opinion on a tough call that I have, not Adam's
Starting point is 00:04:40 as much. What about my opinion? I'm in the championship game with Dalvin Cook and Chris Godwin. I barely made it through. Both guys got hurt. I have to fill in leaky holes in my roster. And I actually started Boston Scott alongside Dalvin Cook last week. It's PPR because RB2 is my one clear weak spot.
Starting point is 00:05:00 This is a Lamar Jackson team, George Kittle, Darren Waller, a lot of good options at other spots. But I'm thin at running back so i'm probably going to be starting boston scott again this week i'm trying to get mike boone but i'm i have two dollars of free agent budget uh so i have to decide between guys like duke johnson devin coleman jalen samuels ronald jones but i picked up carry on johnson last week and I'm curious if you guys think if Karyon Johnson plays, he would be trustworthy. I think if Karyon Johnson plays, he is definitely going to be a tough call, but I will have him projected for more fantasy points than all of those guys just because the Lions have absolutely nothing to play for.
Starting point is 00:05:40 And Karyon Johnson has been out for two months. And so if he's coming back, I'm assuming he's coming back because he's perfectly fine. And they've got both Scarborough hurt. They got JD McKissick hurt in their most recent game. The running back production from this offense actually hasn't been that bad. And when carry on Johnson was playing earlier in the year, he was a top 20 running back on a per game basis. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:06:02 I'm, I'm probably starting carry on Johnsonson over those guys i actually have a team also with dalvin cook and chris godwin that's in the finals this week and has jamis winston at quarterback as well um i a tough call i'm having not really i guess but i think it will be for some people i'm going right back to oj hard I picked him up off the waiver wire. He led the team in targets after Chris Godwin went down last week. Jameis walked into the building this week and says to Howard and Bray, you guys are getting fed the rock. All right.
Starting point is 00:06:35 And I expect this to be a shootout with the Texans. Yeah. And so I've got, I've got Howard as like a top eight tight end. I'm starting him over Jared cook and I'm really strongly considering starting him over Hunter Henry. That's interesting. I mean, he was not terrible last week, OJ Howard, but he wasn't as good as I was hoping he would be. Bruce Arian said the running backs are going to have to get more involved in the passing game this week without Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin has not been officially ruled out, but my question on Chris Godwin is, is it okay to drop him?
Starting point is 00:07:06 What do you think? Or would you play it safe and keep him? No, I'm okay dropping him. I think it's pretty clear he's not going to play, right? It's not official. I don't think I am because the thing that I noticed last night when I was making waiver claims is like 90% of the people I've been keeping on my bench have no business on my bench now because they're going to have no impact on week 16. Right. Like I'm dropping Latavius Murray.
Starting point is 00:07:32 I'm dropping guys. But like guys like Golden Tate and that level of wide receiver or running backs, maybe like Ronald Jones. Oh, I totally agree. If you're not starting those guys, you've got to cut those. So I'm not going to drop Godwin just because if there's a 5% chance that he comes back and plays. Well, he's a definite starter. There's really no scenario
Starting point is 00:07:53 where the other guys are starters. Well, you said Ronald Jones. I mean, like I said, Bruce Arians said that the running backs are going to have to be more involved in the passing game. Does that give you more hope for Ronald Jones this week
Starting point is 00:08:02 against the Texans? Of that group that Ben said earlier, I actually start ronald jones over boston scott um he would have been my favorite running back in the group if he hadn't got to carry on johnson so i think if carry on doesn't play ben should especially ben in the championship game oh yeah start i know but it's going to touchdown it's gonna be the most joyous moment of your entire season that's true but my concern with jones i, it's the same concern that we've had with his workload all year, right? He's splitting carries.
Starting point is 00:08:29 He's, I think the receiving work note is promising. But the big thing that I've seen the second half of the season that has me shying away from him is he's played almost no snaps inside the five. They either hurry up and leave a Goomba Wally on the field or it was even tj logan one snap a couple of weeks back now logan's on ir or if they slow things down they always sub in peyton barber even if it's a pass attempt i've watched it closely and and they just don't allow ron jones to play inside the five maybe that will change but i don't think he has a snap inside the five in the last maybe half season wow and it's it's crazy because he i think has scored on his last three rush attempts inside the 10 um and i think one
Starting point is 00:09:10 of those was like a four yard rush attempt that was several weeks ago but uh he's been efficient in that area but they they keep turning to payton barber so i don't think he really has like multiple touchdown upside without goal line work and it's just not a great offense. It's a tough matchup. Houston's a little better against the run than the pass, so I'm struggling with Jones. I actually have a tough call that I need your help with. Oh, all right. Is it John Brown? I had the Chiefs defense on one of my teams,
Starting point is 00:09:38 and I picked up last night the Broncos defense at home against David Blau, but the Colts defense at home against Will Greer is still available. Do you prefer the Colts or the Broncos? Colts. I like the Broncos there. You know, the Colts
Starting point is 00:09:58 I mentioned this on the show yesterday. The Colts were terrible last week, and I think I pretty much excuse it. In fact, I completely excuse it. But they had been very strong. It's like eight of the last ten games. I'll get it up right now. Eight of the last ten games.
Starting point is 00:10:13 One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. Yep, they've scored double-digit fantasy points in our standard scoring league. That's a lot. That's really good. So, you know, I would go with them against carolina facts in fact i'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick them up because you know what i did the same thing i dropped the eagles for the broncos i don't even think i saw that the chiefs were available that the colts were available i'm getting the colts look at me helping people out yeah i'm definitely keeping broncos now
Starting point is 00:10:41 uh yeah all right i'll make that change. So for me, I think the toughest call – well, not for me. I'm sitting John Brown, and I have him in one of my leagues. Heath, you're starting John Brown? That's solely dependent on who I have on my roster. But I could see – he's 27, I think i think for me so i could absolutely see i'd rather just like one guy i think was maybe the over most overlooked guy on waiver wire talk yesterday uh was danny amandola i would start danny amandola ppr over john brown for sure he
Starting point is 00:11:20 has dominated targets since david blau has taken over taken over and Chris Harris is going to be on Kenny Galladay. And the Broncos other corner just got suspended. So I think Amendola is definitely a guy I'd pick up to start over Brown. Big note on Amendola. His snaps and routes spiked when Hawkinson went on IR because they went to more three wide receiver sets instead of using their tight ends as much. Every game where he's run around on at least 75 of the dropbacks which i believe is now five games after last week he's seen at least eight targets in all all five of those games some of those stretch back to when stafford was quarterback um but yeah i i agree with he's and
Starting point is 00:11:55 marvin jones is out now too so we're like there's nowhere else for those targets to go yeah by the way john brown's at new england in case you don't have the schedule handy that's games on saturday in the first meeting at five catches for 69 yards. He also just had a good game against Pittsburgh, which was a little surprising to me. But New England, I would say considerably tougher than Pittsburgh. So, you know, outside the top 20 for Heath, he's probably outside the top 50 for Dave and Jamie. That's partially a joke. So John Brown's a tough call.
Starting point is 00:12:22 Aaron Jones is honestly a tough call for me. I think everybody's going to start him after last week, but I think there's reason to be concerned. Looking forward to getting into those. Let me read a Twitter poll that, of course, such a simple Twitter poll and I couldn't even do it right. I said, was thinking, wouldn't it be fun if the people who
Starting point is 00:12:39 were eliminated from the Fantasy Championship placed wagers on the Week 16 matchup? Have you ever bet on week 16 matchup have you ever bet on a fantasy matchup that you weren't involved in and i put yes and no as the options but of course i put two different questions in the tweet so i confused everyone but the question really was have you ever bet on a fantasy matchup that you weren't involved in and only 24 said yes but wouldn't that be fun wouldn't that give you some skin in the game you like you want to you know pretend that week 16 means something to your fantasy team that's been eliminated
Starting point is 00:13:09 so you make you make a bet on the championship matchup like i've got so many leagues now that this pretty much never happens but individually it still happens and it definitely happened way back when i only played one league when my season season ends, when I'm eliminated in round one of the playoffs or round two of the playoffs, I am so pissed off about fantasy football and this stupid league and this stupid guy that beat me. There is no way I want to follow
Starting point is 00:13:36 their game with something else on the line for me. No. Piss on you guys. I'm going to play golf. You don't play golf. You play golf? What do you mean? You play golf? I play golf.
Starting point is 00:13:49 What's wrong with playing golf? I just didn't think he played golf. I was on the high school golf team. Really? Yeah. That's pretty good. The more you know. Yeah, I used to honk my horn driving by the golf course when people were swinging.
Starting point is 00:14:02 I used to do that. Yep. Wow. In high school. You're that guy. That makes sense because it was the golfers on the golf team that used to put Adam in lockers. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:14:12 The toughest athletic team. Well, the football players picked on the golf players. The golf players picked on Azar. We did not have a football team at my school. And if we did, I probably would have been the starting center to tell you about how good we would have been. So, Ben, would you ever wager on Week 16 if you weren't
Starting point is 00:14:29 in it? I don't know that I've ever done it. But, yeah, I tend to agree with Heath. Back when I was playing, not that many leagues. The fantasy season's a grind. You lose out. You're ready to to kind of
Starting point is 00:14:45 check check out a little bit but um i i probably would not i probably would i don't think it is a grind for people who don't cover it i think it's just fun you know like but it's not fun the week after you're eliminated but what if you didn't make the playoffs you know make the playoffs and i really don't want to think about why all right. Let's do the do's and don'ts. Is Dalvin Cook going to play Monday night against Green Bay? What do you say? There we go. I think no.
Starting point is 00:15:14 I would say that the chances of Dalvin... I'm just going to give you odds. We've got a one in four shot of Dalvin Cook starting. We've got a one in four shot of Dalvin cook starting. We've got a one in four shots of Dalvin cook starting or Alexander. Yeah. And about a 50, 50 shots of Mike Boone starting, but being the trappiest of trap backs in the history of trap backs.
Starting point is 00:15:40 He literally does not have a target this season. He wasn't active. Most of the games when both madison and cook were healthy because they wanted amir abdullah to do a couple of things in the passing game and he didn't do those things so i don't expect him to i have him projected for zero targets and that really kills a ppr projection when you get nothing from the passing game yeah totally agree i know only he only ran six routes last week they were in a huge positive game script but um i agree i think we would see amir abdullah play a lot in the passing game
Starting point is 00:16:10 i just wonder like would they sign someone and then the situation that stands out to me is bo scarborough when we were sort of excited i don't know about excited but flexing uh jd mckissick and then all of a sudden it was someone else. It was Bo Scarborough. Did they trust Mike Boone in a big divisional game to be their running back? I mean, they're probably going to trust him more than anybody they'd get off the waiver wire or the
Starting point is 00:16:35 practice squad, but I'd be so nervous. I'd be so nervous to start Mike Boone. Me too. I picked him up in one league and I'm just looking for any way I can to not actually use him. Yeah, but then again, for me, it's going to come down to... I did pick up Mike Boone, so it's going to come down to
Starting point is 00:16:51 Mike Boone, three of these four. Boone, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, and Miles Sanders. If Jordan Howard doesn't play, Sanders is the best to me. It's non-PPR. I can't imagine I'm sitting Kamara. And then I'll make the case against Aaron Jones. But I'm probably going to sit Boone.
Starting point is 00:17:07 But it wouldn't surprise me at all if Boone had a better game than Aaron Jones. Sure, but there's risk with the Monday night uncertainty with the injuries of the other backs, too. I mean, I think that's a pretty clear decision for you. Well, Aaron Jones is on Monday night, too. I've got Boone in a PPR league, and I've also got
Starting point is 00:17:23 Kerry on. I've also got Jamal Williams, and I've also got Carrion. I've also got Jamal Williams, and I've also got Patrick Laird. If Carrion doesn't play, I'm probably going to start Boone, but I'm not 100% sure I'm going to start Boone. Now, the plus side on Boone is he's very athletic.
Starting point is 00:17:39 91st percentile spark score, big, reasonable size, ran a 4-4-9, really strong burst, tested very well coming out of college. Just one of those really good athletes, and he has some long runs in his background. So there is some potential to break some big plays, and the Packers tend to give up a decent amount of rushing yards. So if he's the starting back and gets you know 15 20 carries and the vikings run heavy offense there's definitely 100 yard rushing upside here oh for sure i think i don't want to poo-poo his downside but the one more is upside the one other negative
Starting point is 00:18:14 i will say the thing that i guess that happened recently that makes me even more worried is the marlin mack situation because like mack hasn't played on passing downs hardly at all since he's come back and he's been really inefficient and I think it's a little bit easier for defensive teams when they know and the Bears dealt with this last year. Oh, the running guy is in. Let's play run defense. The passing guy is in. Let's play passing pass defense.
Starting point is 00:18:38 That happened to Mac last week and then eventually they just didn't play him as much because they were so far down. Detroit is sticking with Matt Patricia and their GM Bob Quinn and they're sticking with David Blau much because they were so far down. Detroit is sticking with Matt Patricia and their GM Bob Quinn, and they're sticking with David Blau because Matthew Stafford's on IR. Devlin Hodges is starting for the Steelers. Evan Ingram's out. He's on IR. A.J. Green, unlikely to play this
Starting point is 00:18:53 season. Chris Goblin hasn't been ruled out yet, but Scotty Miller has. Scotty Miller is on IR. Richard Sherman's likely going to play this week against the Rams on Saturday. Juju Smith-Schuster, listed as questionable right now. Jared Goff says his thumb will be fine in a day or two. They're at San Francisco on
Starting point is 00:19:09 Saturday. And Washington guard Brandon Scherff, who I believe missed last week's game, he will be out against the Giants. That's pretty significant. He's a good player. They're facing a formidable front, but I'll double check. I'm pretty sure Scherff missed last week's game and Adrian Peterson
Starting point is 00:19:25 did just fine. Our Facebook giveaway this week, the most exciting victory you had this season. Did it come down to Monday night? Did you win on the Raheem Mostert lateral fumble? So yeah, let us know. Win a t-shirt and the parlay. Pick them. Chance to win a million dollars. Go to cbssports.com slash parlay. Just pick some games. You can do it on the app as well, the CBS Sports app. Parlay, pick them. By the way, today is early signing day. Great coverage on CBS Sports HQ all day long. So check out HQ.
Starting point is 00:19:55 Download the CBS Sports HQ app. It's free. It's 24-7 streaming sports coverage. It's really great. And for signing day and everything else you need, check out HQ. Got some questions from Apple Podcasts. We're going to read a bunch of your emails later at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. This is from Dion Forker from the self-proclaimed best town on earth in western Kentucky.
Starting point is 00:20:16 That's Madisonville. Really? It's about an hour and a half east of Paducah. Okay. You're making words up. Things are all true. it okay he says dear nicky vince tommy and mick oh i know what that is now that i googled it that is uh come on heath this is a band that i feel like you probably were into a little bit. Nicky, Vince, Tommy, and Nick. Nick Six. What's that? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:20:48 I definitely should know this. Tommy is the big one. No, it's Motley Crue. Motley Crue. Yeah. I was on the right path. I joined a league with some work friends and realized after the draft that we have a Week 17 championship.
Starting point is 00:21:03 I have Lamar as my quarterback and options to replace him in week 17 are RG3, Minshew, Rivers, Haskins, Locke, and Dalton. Who is my least terrible option if Lamar sits
Starting point is 00:21:18 in week 17? I have no idea who anyone plays in week 17. Yeah, me either. I'm about to check. I also have no idea who is going to be playing for anyone else in week 17. I might be able to schedule this question next Tuesday. Well, let's see. So Rivers is at Kansas City.
Starting point is 00:21:37 Don't love that. Dalton. There's a non-zero chance Rivers gets benched, too. Tell us where Gardner Minshew is. That's what we all need to know. Okay. It's probably going to be Minshew. Minshew's at home against Indianapolis.
Starting point is 00:21:53 That's not awful. I'm not playing Locke. Minshew. Yeah, I think Minshew's probably the right call. I wouldn't play Haskins either. Otherwise known as statistically the best-passing rookie quarterback this season. Cincinnati is home against Cleveland. So there's that.
Starting point is 00:22:08 Also, we have some Dynasty talk coming up. All right, Minshew is your answer. And for this next one, start two in a half PPR league. James Conner, Tyler Boyd, Marquise Brown, and T.Y. Hilton. Pretty easily Conner and Boyd for me. Yep. Well, Conner's got the Jets.Y. Hilton. Pretty easily Connor and Boyd for me. Yep. Well, Connor's got the Jets. That's not easy.
Starting point is 00:22:30 He barely got any work last week. No, he played over 50% of the snaps. They were 12 touches. Something like that. I want to pull it up before I say this, but I'm pretty confident it's because they just didn't run a lot as a team. But I don't know if I'm mixing that up. No, you are right about that. They threw way too much, but
Starting point is 00:22:47 now they're facing best run defensive football, or one of them. Yeah, he still saw five targets and caught four passes, had 12 touches. Even if you just told me James Conner's getting 12 touches against the Jets, I would take him over T.Y. Hilton and Marquise Brown.
Starting point is 00:23:04 Fair enough. Especially in half PPR. He'll get work in both. He definitely gave up snaps, right? Jalen Samuels, Kareth White, and Benny Snell all played and all had multiple touches, but in half PPR, you lean towards the running back. He played
Starting point is 00:23:20 like 58% of the snaps, I think, and they just didn't run the ball like we said. All right, guys. Let's get into the tough calls for this week. First, did you guys get a good night's sleep last night? How was your sleep? I did not. No, you were up at what, 345?
Starting point is 00:23:36 Yeah. Weird. Oh, man. That's when you cover... Only five minutes ago, Adam. What'd you say? That was only 45 minutes ago. No, it's sick. That was an hour
Starting point is 00:23:46 and 15 minutes ago. Oh, it's like 4 a.m. on the West Coast right now. Yeah, it's sick. You guys are both off. It was two hours, over two hours ago. Okay, my bad. How about you, Heath? Sleep well? Yeah, I went to bed about 9.45. Wednesday is, or Tuesday is my
Starting point is 00:24:01 sleep night after a hard, hard day of work. So yeah, 9.45, straight to sleep, strapped all the way through. Oh, good. So that's why he's very sharp today. Look, so you got to get a good night's sleep. We're going to help you get a good night's sleep with the sleep number bed and the 360 smart bed in particular. Go to a sleep number store. How do you find one? You go to sleep number dot com slash FFT. Sleepnumber.com slash FFT. They've got great holiday deals. You can get an awesome holiday gift for quality sleep with the Sleep
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Starting point is 00:25:02 With Sleep IQ technology inside the bed, it tracks how you're sleeping and gives you personalized insights for your best sleep. So again, it's a great holiday gift. From $9.99 only at Sleep Number stores, get the 360 smart bed at sleepnumber.com slash FFT. That's how you find those stores. Tough calls. Drew Brees Outdoors.
Starting point is 00:25:23 He is coming off 49 points against San Francisco, 36 points against the Colts. He's only played two road games. Was great at Tampa Bay. Struggled at Atlanta, at least fantasy point-wise. Starter sit Drew Brees at Tennessee.
Starting point is 00:25:40 I think you're starting him. I mean, they're not running the ball particularly well. He's not as good on the road. There's reason to be a little concerned, but I think you'd have him. I mean, they're not running the ball particularly well. He's not as good on the road, and there's reason to be a little concerned, but I think you'd have a hard time sitting him when he's – I mean, just look at what he did last week. I mean, how efficient he's been. For the most part, I'm starting him in a six-point per touchdown pass league. The one guy you started him over last week that I would start over him this week
Starting point is 00:26:04 would be Matt Ryan because that Jacksonville defense has just been absolutely atrocious, and he is at home in the Dome. In a four-point league, I think you could consider Fitzmagic over him. Okay. What's good about this matchup is the Titans have been scoring a lot. They're averaging 31.1 points per game in their last seven games. And quarterbacks have thrown 40. Four of the last seven quarterbacks to face the Titans have thrown 40 or more passes.
Starting point is 00:26:33 So that is good. But they just don't give up a lot of big games. So, you know, I don't know that you're getting a huge game from Drew Brees, but he's Drew Brees. It could happen. How about Andy Dalton at Miami? Is that a tough call for you guys? How much do you trust him?
Starting point is 00:26:49 The Dolphins give up the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Yeah, I don't want to start him. Oddly, I don't really want to start him either. I will have to look into this this morning. It's one of the things on my list, but in my first run of projections, there is a much larger gap between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andy Dalton than I feel like there should be.
Starting point is 00:27:12 But Dalton doesn't come in as a top 12 guy for me. Okay. Would you rather start Dalton or Aaron Rodgers? I'd start Dalton. Probably Dalton in that situation, but Rodgers is right there with him. Maybe Rodgers. I'd take Rodgers there. So, Heath, I put Matt Ryan on this list, home against Jacksonville.
Starting point is 00:27:31 You don't seem to agree. But here's why. He's just not playing that well lately. I mean, if you look at his fantasy points since coming back from the injury, the ankle injury, I'm not saying it's related. It could just be a coincidence. But he needed 50 points and garbage time to score 20 points against the Saints
Starting point is 00:27:49 in a six-point-per-passing touchdown league. He had a 93-yard touchdown pass that got him to 24 fantasy points against Carolina. He needed a last-second touchdown pass to score 22 points at San Francisco. So even when he's put up 20 to 24 points, it's been a struggle to get there.
Starting point is 00:28:05 It's taken pretty much in two of the three games like till the very end. Can I reframe what you've just said? Yeah. Yeah. Since coming back from injury, Matt Ryan has faced the Saints, Panthers, and at San Francisco, and he doesn't have a game over that stretch with fewer than 20 fantasy points. No, but that's not the complete picture. Because the three games before that, he scored 18 points at the Saints,
Starting point is 00:28:28 18 points at Carolina, and 6 points against Tampa Bay at home. So it's been really, overall, pretty bad for Matt Ryan. And he has not been someone that's winning you your league. If you're going to score 20 to 25 fantasy points against the Saints and 49ers, it's probably going to be ugly. He didn't do that. It's probably going to take a big play. He didn't do that. Jacksonville. They are absolutely terrible defensively right now. And he's at home.
Starting point is 00:28:52 He's a top four quarterback for me this week. I'm not I have no reservations at all about Matt Ryan. Another way that I would reframe what what you offered Adam is that's who Atlanta is right now. I mean they they don't run the ball. That's what they've been all season. Oh, they will run the ball pass attempts. They throw the ball to catch up.
Starting point is 00:29:10 They will all over the field. Not this week. They will run the ball this week. I mean, Devante Freeman, his first two games back, he had 17 carries in both games. Didn't think he was going to be able to run the ball last week at San
Starting point is 00:29:20 Francisco, but against what looks like the worst run defense in football right now, they will run the ball this weekend. They're going to win. I don't know. I mean, this game is the worst run defense in football right now, they will run the ball this weekend. They're going to win. I don't know. This game is... Carolina's the worst run defense in football. You know what? That's fine. Carolina and Jacksonville are back-to-back, in my opinion, and the Chiefs are right up there, too.
Starting point is 00:29:36 But they should be able... They should be able to run the ball in this game, and I don't think they're going to be trailing. Maybe... I don't think they'll be playing catch-up in the fourth quarter. That'd probably be a close game. Yeah, I don't think they'll be playing catch up in the fourth quarter that'd probably be a close game although yeah i don't know but does that right does that factor in ben i mean i think this is a more favorable game no i mean it's a fair point it might lower his ceiling a little bit they probably will try to run the ball in jacksonville but i like if you look at his game long he's done fewer than 30 passes one time all season even in those games that you mentioned
Starting point is 00:30:02 where freeman was back and running more. Ryan did have a couple of down games. The Carolina game in particular stands out where Atlanta had their, I guess the first Carolina game and Atlanta didn't actually run the ball that well in that game. They ran the ball better in their second Carolina game and Ryan still produced. I mean, yeah, even if they run, I still think Ryan winds up throwing 30 passes and puts up numbers. Well, because when they run, that means that Matt Ryan throws 35 to 40 passes instead of throwing 40 to 50 passes. And if you're telling me Matt Ryan's throwing 35 to 40 passes against Jacksonville, he's going to be very good. I hope so.
Starting point is 00:30:41 He just hasn't been that good in his last six or seven games. So, all right. And then what was the other thing I was going to say about this game? Oh, yeah. Just because I put these guys – just because I'm making the case against them, I don't want people to think I'm very anti-Matt Ryan. I just think it's my job to sort of bring up the other side of the coin. How about Jimmy Garoppolo against the Rams?
Starting point is 00:31:03 Is that a tough call for you this week? I don't have him anywhere and I don't really want to be trusting him, but I'm curious what he thinks. I would definitely start Minshew and Fitzpatrick over him. I'd probably start Andy
Starting point is 00:31:21 Dalton over him. I'd start Aaron Rodgers over him. I'm not starting Rodgers over him. I'm not starting Jimmy Garoppolo. Man, the Rams are so weird. They're either amazing defensively or horrible. There's just no in-between. Because there's like four... Dak Prescott didn't have a great fantasy game
Starting point is 00:31:38 last week, but he was great. He threw 23 passes. He scored 21 fantasy points. There've been four games where they've just been absolutely dreadful against quarterbacks if you count the Dallas game. It could always happen, but usually they're pretty good. Okay, so our last tough call, my lot for the day,
Starting point is 00:31:55 at quarterback is Phillip Rivers. At home against Oakland, his last three games, he scored 20 points at Denver. He scored 30 points at Jacksonville, and he scored just 10 points against Minnesota. That was an ugly game with three interceptions. He went back to the guy he was in that really rough stretch. Doesn't throw a lot of passes,
Starting point is 00:32:16 but the Raiders, they give up the most passing yards per attempt, so that helps. Four straight quarterbacks have scored 21 or more fantasy points against the Raiders in six points per passing touchdown leagues. That's start-worthy, with only 27 to 29 pass attempts. So it can be done. Ben, is Philip Rivers a
Starting point is 00:32:35 tough call for you? Would you consider starting him? I'd consider starting him. It's a good matchup. I have a little bit of concern that they've warmed up Tyrod Taylor a couple times. They've talked about benching him. And Phillip Rivers definitely can just throw three
Starting point is 00:32:51 interceptions at a half. And at this point in week 16, I could see them just deciding to sit him down at a certain point. This is the last home game, right? Oh, yeah. They probably won't bench him. Is this the last game ever as a charger sure um i i struggle a lot with the range of quarterbacks from 8 through 12 in my rankings and it's in some the order changes nearly constantly fitzmagic minshu jamis. Right now, Rivers is at the bottom of that group.
Starting point is 00:33:26 One of the factors in my... I use air quotes for model because it's not that sophisticated. But is the implied Vegas total for a team one of the factors? And so I could see a situation where Rivers is at the top of that group if that number goes
Starting point is 00:33:42 up for them. And I think it probably will. I think he's a fine start. He's not someone I'm forcing into my lineup. I'd rather start Breeze. Alright, let's go to the running backs here. Raheem Mostert against the Rams. He has four straight games with a rushing touchdown, and last
Starting point is 00:33:58 week, 14 carries, 54 yards, and a touchdown with only one catch against the Falcons. He's probably not going to give you much in the passing game, but he has scored in non- PPR. Mostert has scored 12, 20, 22, and did he fumble last? Oh, he did fumble, right, that last play of the game.
Starting point is 00:34:14 Nine fantasy points. Should have been 11 fantasy points in non-PPR in his last four games. The Rams, they only give up 4.1 yards per carry. They do tend to give up some fantasy points, though, to running backs. He start or sit where he most start this week. He is a tough call.
Starting point is 00:34:31 This is a good one that you chose. I'm mostly starting him in non-PPR. In PPR, it's interesting, especially when you talk about with that group of Mike Boone, maybe DeAndre Washington if Josh Jacobs shuts it down um maybe carry on johnson i i would have a hard time starting him if i had one of those guys and it turns out that guy is going to get all the touches for his team yeah most of the snapshots dropped both of the last two weeks since his kind of surprise takeover of the backfield and and dropped by quite a bit and and coleman and breeder are both healthier I I assume they want all these guys you know they're going into the playoffs they want all
Starting point is 00:35:10 these guys to be healthy and involved um I definitely think there's scenarios where most are sees under 50 percent of the snaps this week and and Adam just mentioned not doing a lot in the past game he got 14 carries last week you might only get 12 carries out of him and no catches. And so you really need him to be efficient and score like he has been, but it's not something to really bank on. I agree with you. If you look at Mostert plus Brita plus Coleman plus Jeff Wilson, you've got 16 rushing touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:35:41 I'd be curious this season. I'd be curious to know if there are probably one or two, but I feel like they score a rushing touchdowns. I'd be curious this season. I'd be curious to know if they're probably one or two, but I feel like they score a rushing touchdown every game. So he's probably the guy to get it at this point. If they're going to score a rushing touchdown. I know Coleman got some work near the goal line last week, but well, it's been more most or the most likely back on the team to break a 40 yard
Starting point is 00:36:03 touchdown run is the back that doesn't get the ball inside the 10-yard line. So that kind of messes with the odds a little bit as well. I think Breida is most likely to break a long touchdown run. It could be Mostert. That's interesting. It could be Mostert. It could be Coleman, too.
Starting point is 00:36:18 I mean, they're all really athletic. All right, let's move on. I've got about a 75% chance at a touchdown this week. For Mostert or for the 49ers? Mostert. Yeah, that's the thing. I had about a 75% chance at a touchdown this week. For Mostert or for the 49ers? Mostert. Yeah, that's the thing. He's got a good chance to score. Aaron Jones at Minnesota.
Starting point is 00:36:31 I don't know if this means anything to you. Aaron Jones at home. 66.4 rushing yards per game, 4.8 yards per carry, 10 rushing touchdowns. On the road, 50 rushing yards per game, 3.9 yards per carry, nearly a full yard per carry lower for rushing touchdowns on the road this year. All of them in one game at Dallas, the Vikings have given up one rushing touchdown to a running back at home.
Starting point is 00:36:56 This year was Andy Janovich for the Denver Broncos. Does that mean anything to you in this matchup? I'll say that I think it's pretty interesting that he did have a good game at Dallas on turf in a climate-controlled setting. There are other road games, Chicago, Kansas City, the Chargers, the 49ers, I think is also turf, but outdoor, and the Giants, same deal. But some of those are natural grass. I mean, he's a speed player. He's a quick player. I want to use him if I have him.
Starting point is 00:37:31 I think you kind of have to. We've seen the last couple of weeks, like he didn't catch, I think, any passes or maybe one pass last week. But he showed the receiving work two weeks ago. It hasn't been as good since Devontae Adams came back, his receiving profile receiving profile but he did show that upside he also has 17 touchdowns on the season like he's he has an amazing uh Green Zone role and very efficient in that area so I I don't think he's really a big question mark I think he's a guy you got to trust he's got a lot of touchdown equity I'm probably starting him but there are a handful of guys that we have started
Starting point is 00:38:06 him over all year that i would start over him this week like joe mixon against dolphins miles sanders cowboys um does austin eckler count yes i have to make that very decision in fact i benched aaron jones for austin eckler in a non-PPR league last week. And I won, thankfully. But it was obviously a terrible decision. And I have to make that decision again. And the thing is, I cannot remember a running back like this. He's a top five running back.
Starting point is 00:38:39 And he's got so many bad games this year. We're talking like three or fewer fantasy points in non-ppr uh like just his last six games these are his non-ppr fantasy points in his last six games 3 27 3 2 24 17 it's so weird it is like adam we've talked about this all year long the 24 could win you a league and the three can't hurt you. All right, let's go to... I got the side eye. For Ben, that's good. James, you know, Ben, I'm glad that Heath picks on you now,
Starting point is 00:39:13 not just me. It does make me feel a little bit better. In fact, I'm going to reward him. I mean, what he said was factually accurate, and I didn't pick up on any of his sarcasm, so we can just move on. Heath earned this james connor at the jets i guess we could probably go fast on this one you guys think he's a start yeah i think for the most part yeah um again all these things depend on on options i
Starting point is 00:39:41 like the the guys that Heath just gave over Jones. I would have Jones over Connor as well. So, yeah, I think Connor would be behind a lot of those names. But I think you're starting him if you have options like I mentioned earlier in the show in one of my leagues. I agree with everything Ben just said. He is right behind Aaron Jones in my rankings directly. So all of the guys that I would start over Jones, I would also start over Connor. I would also start Jones over Connor,
Starting point is 00:40:07 but you're probably starting Connor. Yeah, but what about Mike Boone or James Connor and Aaron Jones? I would start Boone over them in non-PPR. I would start them over Boone in PPR, assuming we have... This is the key. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Madison have to be ruled out.
Starting point is 00:40:25 Yep. If they're questionable, but we're not really sure, no way am I using them. Right. Okay. And Phillip Lindsay. Heath, you like Phillip Lindsay? He seems like basically the same group as Aaron Jones and James Conner. Another guy that's PPR dependent, I think.
Starting point is 00:40:47 Weirdly. As in what? I actually have him behind those guys. He's better or worse than PPR? I've got him just behind. I've got him ranked about the same, but they move ahead of him in PPR and behind him in non-PPR. He's got Detroit this week.
Starting point is 00:41:01 Detroit, by the way, where is this? I tweeted it last night. Their last eight games, running backs are averaging 3.38 yards per carry against Detroit. They have a sneaky, good run defense. They give up a lot of touchdowns. They give up a lot of receiving yards,
Starting point is 00:41:17 but we thought they were going to have a good run defense this year, led by snacks Harrison, who made a big difference when they acquired him last year. They actually like, they give up the fourth most fantasy points, but they actually have a pretty good run to events, 3.38 yards per carry. So in the last eight games, I don't know,
Starting point is 00:41:34 Ben, what do you think about Philip Lindsay this week? I don't want to use him. I mean, we, we talked about him, I think last week on the, um,
Starting point is 00:41:41 the mailbag, the mailbag show at the end of last week. And we, we talked a little bit about him. I made a case that he doesn't play that much. And you mentioned, well, his touches have been pretty consistent. And they have been, but they're in the running game. They're really specifically using him more on running downs, and they like Royce more in the passing game.
Starting point is 00:42:01 Last week, they trailed by quite a few points from the early part of the game. And Lindsey played his lowest snapshot of the season. Ray Freeman, I believe, played his highest snapshot of the season. I think that was really strong evidence that those roles are what they are. They like Freeman more in pass protection. So I don't think Denver's, you know, they could win this game against Detroit at home. But I just don't want to trust that. I don't want to trust a guy who's not going to play on pass downs
Starting point is 00:42:26 and also could get his rush attempts cold. Yeah, I think the difference is, and Ben could be right, I kind of think Denver's going to stomp them. Detroit? I mean, for Denver. So 16 rushes and two catches is like the upside, right? You say 16 and two? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:46 Yeah, no. is like the upside, right? You say 16-2? Yeah. No, in a game they win by two scores, I think 20-2 is the upside. Okay. So last guy, last running back here, then we'll go to some wide receivers. We'll read your emails. We got some dynasty to talk about. Wide receivers and running backs
Starting point is 00:43:00 who are gaining and losing value in our minds. But last guy here is Kenyon Drake. Coming off a four-touchdown performance. He is at Seattle. And Seattle has been pretty good against the run. They're not that bad. 18th in fantasy points allowed to running backs, but they give up 4.05 yards per carry to running backs.
Starting point is 00:43:22 It's another team that gives up passing production and some touchdowns. So that could really help Kenyon Drake. This will be the team, of all the teams he has faced this year, no team allows more receiving yards per game to running backs than the Seahawks. Is Kenyon Drake ahead of all of the guys we've talked about? James Conner, Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsey, and Raheem Mostert? I don't think he's clearly ahead of all of them.
Starting point is 00:43:48 I've got him ahead of all of them. Okay. So Drake had, I believe it was four or five rush attempts. Or excuse me, five or six because he had four touchdowns. Three of them came in the green zone. Rush attempts in the green zone is the stat that I'm referencing. So I believe he had five or six. He had two in the rest of his Arizona games combined,
Starting point is 00:44:07 and he's been playing as a lead back that entire stretch. So the way that I view that stat is it's a good encapsulation of the fact that Arizona's offense doesn't consistently produce. And I can't really bank on all those Russian touchdowns carrying over. Now he's been very good and you should definitely use him. I think he's very usable compared to a lot of those guys, but I don't think he's a clear lock for me. Okay. Yeah, and for Drake, that was the best matchup by far that he had seen.
Starting point is 00:44:40 He had faced really tough opponents, and then Cleveland, they're really bad against the run, and he crushed them. Seattle, as I mentioned, they're're really bad against the run, and he crushed them. Seattle, as I mentioned, they're really not bad against the run. They do give up some fantasy points, but a lot of it's in the passing game. And they've been pretty solid against the run. All right, we're going to tell you about SeatGeek real quick, and then we'll get to some wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:44:57 T.Y. Hilton, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown covered some of them. But SeatGeek, man, SeatGeek is the Michael Thomas of ticketing apps. Because other ticketing apps, they make it so difficult to get to the game. SeatGeek lets you enjoy the game, lets you get there easily, find great deals. SeatGeek brings in tickets from all over the web. SeatGeek gives you $10 off when you use our promo code FFT. The promo code is FFT on SeatGeek to save 10 bucks on your first purchase. I get testimonials from our listeners all the time. Thanks so much for talking to me about SeatGeek.
Starting point is 00:45:32 I use SeatGeek. I got these great seats. They were cheaper than anywhere else I was looking. It was so easy to use SeatGeek. I really do get these a lot. So you can take it from me because I use SeatGeek or you can take it from our listeners because they use SeatGeek. And SeatGeek has over 50,000 five-star reviews in the app store. So take it from those people as well. SeatGeek is the best. You need to use it. Use it and use the code FFT to get 10 bucks off. Again, download the SeatGeek app and the promo code is FFT for 10 bucks off your first SeatGeek purchase. T.Y. Hilton, anybody trusting him against Carolina? You know, this was a tough matchup earlier in the year. They were doing very well against some very good wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:46:12 Mike Evans, they shut down. DeAndre Hopkins, they shut down. But it's not really the case anymore. Most of the good wide receivers are doing quite well against Carolina, who's now giving up on the season the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers. So, Heath, starters at T.Y. Hilton, who did have
Starting point is 00:46:32 nine targets last week. Yeah, I don't know that T.Y. Hilton is a good wide receiver currently. And that's not anything against him. I just don't think he's healthy, and I'm not starting him. I'm starting Perriman over him. Yeah,'t think he's healthy, and I'm not starting him. Yeah, I'm starting Perriman over him. Yeah, I think that's fair.
Starting point is 00:46:48 I would start Perriman over him as well. I think the positive note is even in a game the Colts did really poorly and no one really produced, he did see nine targets. He immediately returned to his number one role while only playing 52% on the snaps. That could increase this week. So you probably have volume on your side. So I'm also starting DK Metcalfalf against arizona over to i hilton just for a little context there uh but
Starting point is 00:47:12 hopefully you have some running backs you can start over him as well john brown at new england we already talked about him he's outside the top 24 for heath he's just had a really good year and we should give him credit seven catches 99 yards at yards at Pittsburgh. That was after three straight games with less than 40 yards. And look, the Patriots are just ridiculous. Go ahead, Heath. And I'm currently still starting him in a PPR three-wide receiver league.
Starting point is 00:47:36 I missed on Perryman and I have not found a better option yet. I may just start him. I'm not going to force it. Amendola is not available. I'm not saying he's a. Amendola is not available. I'm not saying he's a sure sit. He is a tough decision. I'm going to sit him in one of my two leagues and I'm still alive and I'm going to sit him for
Starting point is 00:47:51 Terry McLaurin. I don't think I have to. I think I have enough players, but I might sit him. Darius Slayton. This is kind of an interesting one. I have Darius Slayton and I have John Brown. Where would you go there? I would start Slayton and McLaurin over an interesting one. I have Darius Slayton and I have John Brown. Where would you go there? I would start Slayton and McLaurin over him for sure.
Starting point is 00:48:08 Yeah. McLaurin's easy against the Giants. Slayton's obviously against the Redskins. I have Emmanuel Sanders too. That's the next guy on the list. Emmanuel Sanders or John Brown? I would much rather start John Brown. I don't have much interest in starting a 49ers wide receiver.
Starting point is 00:48:27 I think I would start Sanders. He only gets three or four targets and that's happened, but that's the rule for San Francisco wide receivers. And then once every three weeks, they have a monster game that makes you think, man, why didn't we start the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers?
Starting point is 00:48:43 But Sanders could always pop, though. It's really hard to have a great game. It's damn near impossible to have a great game against the Patriots. I agree with that. That's exactly why I would play Sanders. I think that we talk about upside, which is way more important than floor.
Starting point is 00:49:01 And I think Sanders actually has decent upside if Ramsey ends up playing on Debo Samuel a little or maybe even covering George Kittle a little bit. I think Ramsey is moving on the Rams. Yeah, so they can move Sanders to get away from him. And I do think Gilmore is going to be on John Brown. Like who else would he guard? He's going to be on John Brown the entire game.
Starting point is 00:49:23 Yeah. Like I just think we should, like, the Rams have been a bad matchup for wide receivers since Jalen Ramsey got there. Mm-hmm. Well, like, yeah, but they haven't been, they haven't been, like, impossible. Last week was an exception
Starting point is 00:49:39 because Dak Prescott threw 23 passes, but, well, forget it. I don't need to get into the numbers. Let's get to the last two here. A.J. Brown, three of his last four games, he's over 110 yards with a touchdown. He is unstoppable. I owe him an apology.
Starting point is 00:49:54 It's been terrific. But does he get Lattimore'd? Does that scare you, A.J. Brown, this week? Yeah, I've already carved out his Hall of Fame bus, so we're good there. But actually, it's very similar to what what heath was saying on john brown a guy heath really likes i obviously am extremely fond of aj brown uh i'm concerned marshawn latimore gave up more than 4 140 yards
Starting point is 00:50:18 in coverage back in weeks two and three um and it looked like he maybe wasn't on his a game this year and we see cornerback play fluctuate a little bit from year to year. He's really come on late. In his past six games combined, he's given up 10 catches and 93 yards in coverage. Not a lot of really good players that he's been covering. Arguably, A.J. Brown right now is better than a lot of those guys. He's played the Falcons twice. Julio missed one of those games.
Starting point is 00:50:41 He did face Julio a decent amount um in the other game but he is a very good cornerback and it is a concern for me i don't think aj brown is a must start but like like like he said i i still have him in some in at least one championship lineup and i'm probably going to start him i think he's a legitimate number one i think you have to have top 20 options to i think he said he has john one. I think you have to have top 20 options. I think he said he has John Brown at 27th. I'd probably put A.J. Brown around that range as well. I think you have to have top 20 or maybe top 25 options to sit Brown.
Starting point is 00:51:15 Ben, what percentage of the time has A.J. Brown gone into the slot? Like 20? I don't think it's very frequently because they have Adam Humphreys. But he hasn't played in the last couple of weeks. Okay. I don't know that. This game. I don't think Marshawn Lattimore followed anyone on Monday night against the Colts.
Starting point is 00:51:36 I'm not certain that one month is enough to get you the shadow treatment from Lattimore. So I'm more optimistic about A.J. Brown than Ben is. He should. And I'm starting over everyone we've talked about. You have him sixth. He should get the shadow treatment. You have him sixth at receiver? Sixth.
Starting point is 00:51:53 I mean, what I love about that is that is the respect that A.J. Brown already should command because he's that good. And we should reiterate that he didn't play a ton of snaps early in the season. He's only started playing a full role in the last five games and has been so excited. And also feels a little bit of guilt for ever doubting AJ Brown this week. Who, me? No. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:15 I mean, I'm just excited that you have him as a top 10 option. I don't see a lot of people giving him that respect yet. And I think that's important. I just pulled it up. He played seven slot snaps last week. It was tied for a season high, so he's not playing a lot in the slot. I saw Lattimore on T.Y. Hilton quite a
Starting point is 00:52:29 bit last week, but I can't exactly say he was shadowing him. Maybe Lattimore, maybe Hilton was out. Yeah, Hilton could have been out on those plays because he only played about half the snaps, as Ben mentioned. All right, Heath, give me 15 seconds on Adam Thielen against the Packers.
Starting point is 00:52:45 No. Okay, thank you. You do not even need to give me 14 more seconds. So let's take a quick break. When we come back, we'll go through some dynasty running backs and wide receivers, and then we will read a bunch of your emails to finish the show. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage.
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Starting point is 00:53:31 I wanted a running back whose value is going up and a wide receiver whose value is going up. Ben, give me a running back on the rise. Yeah, I chose Austin Eckler here. I think you can get into some trouble going after receiving backs coming off big spike seasons, and he's definitely having a career one this year we've seen him being able to handle a little bit more of a workload in an early down role with Gordon holding out number two Gordon is likely to be gone that he held out they didn't pay him they're not going to pay him this offseason
Starting point is 00:54:15 they'd like Justin Jackson their number three back there's a definitely a chance they bring in somebody and Eckler still has to play a receiving role but there's also some potential this offseason they go forward with Eckler and Justin Jackson as their main two backs and just add like a complimentary third piece I mean he's somebody that I think is is definitely worth targeting in dynasty okay and Heath rather who's moving up at running back I went from the start of the season or from the offseason if you remember remember back to the offseason, Kareem Hunt was facing an eight-game suspension. We weren't sure if he was ever going to be a lead running back in the NFL again. He's been absolutely awesome in terms of efficiency since he's come back from the suspension.
Starting point is 00:55:01 He's a free agent at the end of this year, and he's still under 25 years old. Yeah. I think there's a chance that Kareem Hunt is the most valuable free agent running back this offseason. It's a good call. So looking at the running backs whose values are going down, David Johnson was Ben's pick, and what an interesting career path he appears to be on right now.
Starting point is 00:55:23 I mean, from arguably the best running back in football to perhaps getting released by the cardinals i mean what is going on with david johnson so you think his value is going down how far well it's interesting because i think that gets to a broader point that running back value in dynasty it's very volatile that when he was arguably the best running back in the league uh the argument was with levy on bell who also his value has tanked um the next year it was todd girley whose value has tanked i mean we see this saquon barkley last year is another guy whose value has dropped um we see this with running backs all the time at the top but david johnson's
Starting point is 00:56:01 been a little bit of a different story i actually think um he's yeah he's likely to be gone and if he land i actually think his value will rise over the offseason i think it's going to be at a low in january will rise over the offseason but i don't know if i'll want him going into next year i think there's like an opportunity to to trade for him early in the offseason and then trade him again in august i don't know if i want him going into the off in the next year because he is getting up there in age. He's like 27 or 28 even though he's only played four or five seasons.
Starting point is 00:56:31 He looked slow this year. He doesn't look like he has the same athleticism and burst that made him a really dominant player. He's still a very good player in the passing game, but I don't know that we'll ever see his ceiling again. And Heath, running back, value down in dynasty yeah david johnson just
Starting point is 00:56:48 for real quick he was at about 30 spots in my dynasty rankings ahead of austin eckler and kareem hunt when i released my updated dynasty rankings in january i anticipate him being behind both austin eckler and kareem Hunt. Ben mentioned him. Le'Veon Bell. You look at it now, he's going to be a 28-year-old running back coming off of a down year that's either going to a new team or playing on a bad offense. I am very concerned about Le'Veon Bell's dynasty value.
Starting point is 00:57:24 Should we do wide receivers or should we do emails? Wide receivers. But we have to do emails. No, we don't. You have a whole show for emails. People don't need to hear emails right now. We're almost out of time. Dynasty.
Starting point is 00:57:39 Wide receiver. All right, Heath. Value going up for Dynasty. We'll do both. Heath? This is cheating a little bit, but I said Tyreek Hill. Oh, that is cheating. That's weak.
Starting point is 00:57:56 You're going to bully me into doing... But it's also the most correct answer. Gosh, all these rookie wide receivers. It's so literal about his value probably will rise the most. That's just crazy. Yeah, all right, fine. Tyreek Hill doesn't need explanation. Give me a better one, Ben.
Starting point is 00:58:14 Yeah, DJ Moore. I mean, there's a lot of young receivers that could fit here. Cortland Sutton's another guy I considered. considered um but dj moore to me is is a top probably at least five potentially top three dynasty wide receiver this offseason i think he like we did a mock uh dynasty draft this offseason i think i took him at 2.12 at the end of the second round and got got a few comments that was a little high the reason is and we've talked about this on prior shows very very productive in college and i extend back to look at that age adjusted production and say okay a lot of people will say we've only seen it from
Starting point is 00:58:52 dj more for two seasons i feel like we can make an argument that we've seen it for a lot longer he's been very good at every level and at young ages he's still very young this guy is on a near lock to have a very long and productive career and as young as he is he should still very young. This guy is on a near lock to have a very long and productive career. And as young as he is, he should have that type of value. He didn't even like people are worried about quarterback concerns going forward. He didn't have a quarterback for most of this year. He dominated targets. There's a lot of talk in the off season, whether Curtis Samuel was on the same level as him.
Starting point is 00:59:19 I think what we saw all year is that he is the number one and targets to me are a measure of skill. It's much like Michael Thomas. Everyone knows of all is going to go to michael thomas he still gets open same with dj moore people think he's limited because he doesn't do a lot down the field he has made plays plays down the field dj moore is a phenomenal receiver i agree with that when you said top two or three you know who i immediately have flashbacks to as i look at my top two or three from last year dynasty things and whether he is still a top two or three like i would have said every word you just said about dj more about juju smith shister yeah well i don't know i still have juju ranked very highly
Starting point is 00:59:56 as well i think his season was the product of you know losing his quarterback and they barely threw while he was still healthy and then juju got hurt himself yeah juju i mean the pittsburgh quarterback situation is worse than the panthers quarterback situation from a fantasy standpoint in fact kyle allen in his 12 games he's on pace for about 4 000 yards cam newton has never oh no his rookie season his only season with 4 000 yards passing so i think cam new, if he comes back and he goes back to his normal self, which probably won't happen with all the injuries, that actually
Starting point is 01:00:31 might hurt DJ more because he just not just doesn't know the ball much. There are only two wide receivers in the NFL who have seen at least 10 deep targets and have also seen a catchable deep target rate below 25%.
Starting point is 01:00:47 Those two wide receivers are Curtis Samuel and DJ Moore. But Cam Newton has never produced... Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore have taken a lot of balls close to the line of scrimmage and turned them into high passing yardage numbers. But Kyle Allen is bad and you should
Starting point is 01:01:03 feel bad for comparing him to Cam Newton. No, but what I'm saying, Cam Newton has never produced an elite fantasy wide receiver. Steve Smith, I have to check where he finished. Maybe Steve Smith, but this guy is not good for wide receivers. He doesn't throw touchdown passes. He runs the ball in too many times. He takes touchdown passes away from people.
Starting point is 01:01:26 So that's old. That's vintage. Calvin Benjamin had a lot of touchdowns. He was an exception. But for the most part, this is not. Steve Smith is pretty good with Cam Newton. Right. There have been a couple of exceptions. But really, for the most part, this is not a good offense.
Starting point is 01:01:40 A Cam Newton quarterback offense is not a good offense for a wide receiver. I would just say that that was true because for a majority of Cam's career, no one let him throw 40 passes per game. Kyle Allen's a definitively worse passer than Cam Newton. In the past five games, he's thrown 50, 36, 46, 41, 41, and they liked that so much they benched him. I agree that Cam is better, but he also gets like six rushing touchdowns a year. So that just hurts the wide receivers.
Starting point is 01:02:10 If Newton's back, I thought he was going towards that point as well. A big reason Newton hasn't thrown a ton is because of how much he ran. I don't expect that he will run as much going forward in his career. All right, we do have to—I'm sorry. We have to get to the emails here, guys. Yeah. My loser was quick. It was Antonio Brown. And Ben's is Brandon Cooks.
Starting point is 01:02:30 Emails and tweets. Okay. Here we go. Josh from Little Rock, Arkansas. I'm playing the guy who asked me to join the league. Winning would be awesome. Pick two running backs. Ingram, Mack, and Fournette.
Starting point is 01:02:42 Good, Ingram. I'm setting Mac. Pick two wide receivers. Edelman, Julio, A.J. Brown, and Anthony Miller. Edelman and Julio for me. Julio and A.J. Brown. I'm terrified of Edelman. Like, after that performance last week and facing the Bills.
Starting point is 01:03:02 Edelman's fourth for me. But he's injured. No, fourth out of that group. Oh, oh, oh. Pick a flex from who's left. Miller. Interesting. I mean, Edelman, just one down game.
Starting point is 01:03:20 Yeah, but he's hurt. He's clearly hurt. And his bad game this year without injury was against the Bills. But this guy saw 10-plus targets in eight straight games before last week. Yeah, I know. He's a PPR stud. I get it. All right, let's go to the next one.
Starting point is 01:03:37 It's from Eric. PPR League, Cooper Cup, or should I start both Bears wide receivers and bench cup? Cup and Robinson for me. I'd start both Bears. From Andrew, does Hunter Renfro's return impact Darren Waller? It's a pretty good question, actually. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:00 If we get for sure that Renfro is playing, I will downgrade Waller's targets. The big difference from when Renfro emerged in the offense and then disappeared again in Waller's volume. Right. But you do have to factor in first game back from injury. You're not going to project him for what he was getting before or do you kind of give him a grace period? It'll be in the middle. All right.
Starting point is 01:04:21 All right. From Jay, PPR, DJ Moore or Cortland Sutton? Moore. You can't trust true lock dj more well sutton's got the lions right i i'd rather take the unknown honest i mean i don't think lock's been horrible but they're throwing underneath he hasn't been good down the field. I like more than Locke coming out of college, so I do want to trust Wilker. From Henry in the Bronx, Mahomes or Winston? Mahomes. Mahomes.
Starting point is 01:05:00 From Jackson, PPR Flex, Mostert, Sutton, or Brashad Perryman? I'm going to play Perryman. I'm going to play Perryman if that's me. I'm actually like sometimes I have to go to the projections and see because I'm not sure. And I think I'm going to go with Perryman as well. Okay. That is a tough one. From Jax. Nope. Moster.
Starting point is 01:05:24 Okay. Mostert. Okay, Mostert. From Jax, in PPR, who gets the start at my wide receiver slash tight end slot? Curtis Samuel, Greg Ward, Jacob Hollister, or Cameron Brait? I'd go Hollister. Yeah, Hollister against Arizona, I think think might be the play as long as Nelson Aguilar is out I would probably go with Greg Ward from Joseph Keenan Allen DJ Moore
Starting point is 01:05:56 Devante Parker DJ Chark I think he just needs one in PPR Keenan Allen DJ Moore Devante Parker DJ Chark it's tough. They're all good. Parker. DJ, give me more. Yeah, I think I'm playing more, but it's tough to say Keenan
Starting point is 01:06:13 Allen. It's tough to say Devante Parker. It is tough to say all those guys. Yeah. Wow. I guess don't start DJ Chark apparently. This is Jeff in Dallas. Quarter PPR. Pick a wide receiver and a flex. Metcalf, Slayton, McLaurin,
Starting point is 01:06:29 Drake, Hyde, Peterson. Tough. Metcalf has the Cardinals, Slayton, and McLaurin against each other. Metcalf's out. McLaurin's out. Really? You like Slayton better than McLaurin's out. Really? You like Slayton better than McLaurin?
Starting point is 01:06:47 I do. So Slayton and Drake? Yeah, I think Drake is probably the flex. Okay. This is from Matt Ziemer from Wisconsin. Start three wide receivers from this list
Starting point is 01:07:03 in PPR. Beckham, Landry, Keenan Allen, Diggs, Perryman, and McLaurin. I think you can sit OBJ. That's a guy that we probably could have talked about as a tough call, but I think we're at that point. No, it's not even tough. You don't start him against Baltimore in a way.
Starting point is 01:07:20 So fine. Now you need three. Keenan Allen and Diggs for me. Diggs has always been really good against the Packers One more Landry Okay Landry against Baltimore over Perryman and McLaurin Alright
Starting point is 01:07:34 12 team PPR league Sit one This is from Mike from Princeton Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, Anthony Miller, AJ Brown Who am I sitting? Thielen, Lockett, Miller, Brown Thielen Tyler Lockett Anthony Miller AJ Brown who am I sitting Thielen Lockett Miller Brown Thielen Thielen ran routes on 72 percent of dropbacks a lot better than his snap rate last week they just didn't throw a ton I I kind of still feel okay with Thielen I do think in this scenario he's probably the right set all right one more here from Jack. Dear Jalen, Jason, Marcus,
Starting point is 01:08:05 and Kemba. Celtics. Yep. Oh. How did I? Yes. Duh. How did I not?
Starting point is 01:08:12 Ugh. Four point for passing touchdown league, full PPR. Carson Wentz or Fitzmagic? Fitzmagic. That's a good question. Yeah, I think I'm playing Fitzmagic. He's much more yeah I think I'm playing Fitzmagic
Starting point is 01:08:25 much more likely to catch a pass I will go with him alright everybody thank you very much for listening to fantasy football today hope this was fun and informative for you start or sit for the AFC home games tomorrow for Ben and Heath I'm Adam talk to you later

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