Fantasy Football Today - 12/27 Fantasy Football Podcast: 2018 Outlooks & Wk. 17 Tough Calls

Episode Date: December 27, 2017

Updating you on which teams will be resting in Week 17 (2:50). Is it safe to start your Jaguars? ... Superlatives for 2018! Most likely to break out (7:15), most likely to bounce back (9:52), most likely to never be the same (11:55) and most likely to thrive on a new team (15:20) ... We give an early look at the top of the 2018 rankings at each position (24:35) before getting into tough calls for Week 17 including Tom Brady (31:40), Latavius Murray (33:06), A.J. Green (35:46) and Drew Brees (40:10) among several others ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go! Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. All right, welcome to the show today on our Wednesday show.

Best show ever. We're going to look ahead to 2018 with some superlatives. Most likely to break out. Most likely to never be the same, etc. Give you some rankings at the top of each position and talk about week 17. Tough calls. We have plenty of your emails too at fantasyfootball

at cbsi.com. Hey, enjoy the ultimate football watching experience, everybody. That is Xfinity X1. You can now get live CBS Sports fantasy football stats in the same place you watch your live games. Learn more at Xfinity.com slash sports. That is Xfinity.com slash sports. Good morning, Jamie and Heath. What up?

Good morning. It's week 17. It sure is week 17. And I know you guys don't have any lineup decisions to make, but some people do. We're learning a lot about who might play and who might rest. Let's get right to it. I got a stat for you. Just a sort of like, oh, this is an interesting stat.

Drew Brees, career-high completion percentage this year and best yards per attempt since 2011 when he threw for nearly 5,500 yards, 5,476 yards in 2011. He threw 41 passes per game that year. This year he's just under 34. So he is playing really well. We talked about it yesterday. Drew Brees is having a great year statistically.

He's just not throwing the ball that much. And we'll talk about him and whether or not you can trust him in Week 17. I believe he also leads, and I'm trying to find this number real quick. I believe he also leads all quarterbacks in the highest percentage of his yards coming after the catch. Oh, that's interesting. It was a very accurate passer. I think it's because Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have been incredible. Kamara too? I don't know. I haven't seen him

play. They're going to the Super Bowl. They could. They very well could. Any doubt in your mind that the Patriots go in the AFC? No. How healthy is Antonio Brown by the time they get to the championship game?

Does it really matter? Yes. I mean, I don't think they can win in Foxborough in the playoffs, but let's just say he's fully healthy. You think that's a game? I think they're still winning. I think the Ravens could give him the run because they always do. James Harrison is going to put him over the top.

Maybe the Jags. All right. So who's resting in Week 17? Let's go through the scenarios here. Jamie, the Rams appear likely to rest their starters. What are you doing with the Rams in the rankings? I do not have any of their main offensive players ranked at all. So no Goff, no Gurley, and none of the top three receivers.

And then do you think that the 49ers have a chance now to put up more points? Yeah. I mean, Garoppolo should play well. Look, he played well against Jacksonville, so I would imagine he should play well against the Rams, even if they played their starters. Probably not to that same extent on the road, but Garoppolo, Hyde, and Goodwin are all in good spots this week.

And I'll be interested because from my recollection, teams are more likely to worry about resting offensive starters than they are to worry about resting defensive starters. And I don't think any team is probably going to put 22 guys out there that haven't started this year. So who exactly? Like offensive linemen, there's going to be a couple of them that still start. Well, their two best are going to sit.

Yeah. Sullivan and Whitworth are not expected to play for the Rams. And they had, I think, three guys that were banged up, I can tell you exactly. I think Barrows is one that was expected to sit because he's hurt. All righty. They just lost Matt Longacre to back surgery. So he was placed on injured reserve. So Ogletree and Barron – what did I say, Barron?

Ogletree and Barron are not going to play. This is according to one reporter in Los Angeles. Ogletree, Barron, Whitworth, Sullivan, Goff, and Gurley are probably all going to sit. I just realized it's Josh Reynolds week. Yeah, he's the only Rams receiver I have ranked. Okay. Now Jacksonville says they won't rest their starters. Heath, what do you think about that?

Yeah, I don't think they're going to rest their starters for an entire game for sure. I'm still curious if they're going to be playing in the fourth quarter. The way that I would anticipate it is they play a half for sure, depending on how the game is going. Then we'll see from there. But I think you've got to look at it as the one guy that makes me the most nervous of having to play would be Fournette. Well, what about Bortles?

Just based on what his track record is when he's been a little bit dinged up. Yeah. And they have replacement options. Yeah. And they have a tough matchup, in my opinion. Oh, yes, for sure. Especially when you consider the fact that Tennessee is in a win-and-win situation. That defense.

I don't know how Mariota's going to do. I don't know how the receivers are going to do. But that defense is going to be outrageous. For Tennessee? Yes. What happened to them last week in the game that they had to win? Well, they got girlied. Not much you can do about that.

I mean, the Seahawks have had a great run defense all year. Gurley tore them up. They play the best offense in football. I don't know. They've had a good run defense all year. They have, but Leonard Fournette's not Todd Gurley. No. How about Doug Peterson?

He will not commit to Nick Foles' role this week. So what are your expectations there, guys? I would expect a half at most. Okay. So that means sit Alshon. He's coming off such a big game. I don't want to sit Alshon, Jeffrey. You may not be able to.

Why not? Well, if you're in a situation where you had Alshon Tyree kill and Robert Woods on your team or several other guys that are just maybe not going to play, I, I don't want to start Alshon, but he's not like out of my top 40. Is he out of your top 30? Right on the edge. Yeah, I put Jeffrey and Aguilar back-to-back, I think like 35, 36. I've got Aguilar 30, Jeffrey 31. Yeah, they're number three receivers because you just can't – I think when you get into this conversation,

people will point to – remember the Redskins game two years ago in week 17 when Foles threw three touchdowns? Yeah. In a quarter? Oh, yeah, yeah, sure. That's the outlier. And people will point to, remember the Redskins game two years ago? In week 17 when Foles threw three touchdowns? Yep. In a quarter? Oh, yeah, yeah. Sure. That's the outlier. So what else we got? Kansas City and the Chargers.

Well, the Chargers are going to play everyone. Kansas City. Kansas City. Yes, sorry. Kansas City, it's not been officially said yet, but my expectation is no Smith, no Kelsey, no Hunt, no Tyreek. Anything else? Am I missing anything here? No, those are the main guys, main teams.

Okay, and that concludes today's edition of Who's Resting? It's time for some superlatives. Let's look ahead to 2018. Most likely to break out in 2018. Any thoughts? Yeah, I sent you my list.

I think I'll take the easy one, and he may start that breakout in Week 17, but I will say Derrick Henry. Get him in a situation next year where he's getting 18 touches a game, and he's going to be a top 10 running back. All right, Derrick Henry. Now, it's interesting. I'm very much looking forward to seeing how he does in this game. I don't know how good Jacksonville's defense will be, but, yeah, let's see.

Let's see what Derrick Henry's got in him. Okay, Jamie, any candidates for breakouts in 2018? Oh, I mean, it started already, but it should only get better because of what year two in the system will be. But Jimmy Garoppolo. Oh, I thought you were going to say Jared Goff. No. I can't imagine he's going to be a lot better next year. He might be as good.

He's the number eight quarterback. Goff is the number eight quarterback in fantasy with the 14th most pass attempts. So he's having a really nice year, 3,800 yards, 28 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. But who do you think will be better next year? If you were doing your rankings, Goff or Garoppolo? Goff. Goff, as of now, I'd like to see if they add another receiver in San Francisco. seven interceptions, but who do you think will be better next year? If you were doing your rankings, golf or Garoppolo? Golf. Golf as of now, I'd like to see if they add another receiver in San Francisco.

And if golf keeps Sammy. Yeah. Yeah, I don't even know if that matters because I think Reynolds could probably do the same thing. Maybe not the touchdown potential, but I mean the targets, it's not like they're featuring Sammy Watkins. That's true. If they can get another receiver in there, and certainly an upgrade

because I think you have a good two and a good three, however you want to rank them. Goodwin and Garcon. But I don't think they have a one. So if they can get a one, there's not a lot of great free agent receivers. The two best are probably Devontae Adams

and Allen Robinson. I have O.J. Howard. Now, Henry and Garoppolo certainly came to mind, but I just thought I'd throw a name out, most likely to break out. I would love to see O.J. Howard get featured. And you spent such a high pick on him, so let's just kind of minimize Cameron Brait's role a little bit and get Howard going.

He may not be there. I think he's a free agent also. O.J. Howard? No, Cameron Brait. Oh, okay. Good. I think he's a free agent also. O.J. Howard? No, Cameron Brayton. Oh, okay. Good. So let's get – I didn't see him listed as a free agent. He is?

Brayton is a free agent. Okay. I looked at free agents this morning and did not see him on that list, but maybe I just missed him. Good. Well, then if that's the case, then don't bring him back. And O.J. Howard, look, he's had big plays. He hasn't had that many catches,

but right now he has more yards per catch than every good tight end in fantasy. A lot of fantasy points per target, which isn't the best stat. But I think we've seen his potential. So let's do it, O.J. Howard. Most likely to bounce back from a bad 2017 season. Heath. I'm not going to quit believing yet, I will say, Amari Cooper. And maybe he doesn't ever reach the levels that we thought that Amari Cooper one day would.

But he had at least 1,000 receiving yards in his first two seasons. He was a top 24 wide receiver each of his first two seasons. And now he's going to finish outside of the top 35. So I think Cooper's a pretty good bet to be a value pick in the fourth or fifth round next year. You draft him as your number two wide receiver, and maybe he finally produces another number one. That is so weird that you went there because I went with Derek Carr, and I basically feel the exact same way. I don't know that Carr is ever going to be a superstar because he's got to throw for more yards. He's been around 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016, but he can still be a startable guy.

And I just think they need a new offensive coordinator. They might have a new coaching staff, a general there. And I think he could bounce back. He's had a really bad season. Yeah, I agree. I think he'll be a nice late-round quarterback pick. Yeah. Jamie, who's most likely to bounce back from a bad 2017 season?

Oh, Mike Evans. Yeah. He was a disaster this year. All right. who's most likely to bounce back from a bad 2017 season? Oh, Mike Evans. Yeah? He was a disaster this year. All right. He had a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 6-game streak of not scoring a touchdown from weeks 8 through 14. Targets were down. You called this, Adam, so it was a great suggestion by you

to downgrade him a little bit at the start of the season. And I wonder if they're going to bring Deshaun Jackson back because it really hasn't worked and they have some nice young receivers that could probably do the same thing. I think Godwin's better than he is right now anyway. Yeah, and I think what you've seen at least the last two games is addition by subtraction. It's not like he's had a big boost in targets the last two weeks,

but he went from 6 in Week 13, 5 in Week 14, to 8 eight in eight each of the last two weeks and scored a touchdown over 100 yards receiving in both those games. And the nice thing is we know that he's going to score 12 touchdowns next year. Yes, exactly. Every other year, so that helps. All right, most likely to never be the same. Most likely to never be the same. Heath?

I hate to do this because I love him and I know you do too, but Jordy Nelson. No, he's got to be up there. He's got to. He's lost another step. And maybe he has a James Jones season next year where he has like 800 yards receiving and 12 touchdowns. But you can't draft him, I don't think, as a top 20 wide receiver or top 25 next year. Oh, wow. See, I mean, I definitely feel like you can't draft him as a top eight receiver next year.

I would draft Amari Cooper over Jordy Nelson next year. Not sure I agree with that. Jamie, who would you rather have next year? If Adams is still there, I might go Cooper. If Adams is gone, I'll take Jordy. Okay. Most likely to never be the same next year, Jamie? Oh, Des Bryant.

He's just been terrible. 21 games in a row without 100 yards receiving. He's so touchdown dependent. He just seems like he can't get separation. He's definitely not being double teams anymore. They need to add a receiver desperately. Yes, they really do.

And that would go a long way in helping Dak Prescott, who hopefully can bounce back. Yeah, I think Dez could still be maybe a little better than the James Jones scenario you gave. He could still score eight touchdowns. But I don't see him as a 80-1300 guy anymore. I had three guys, just, you know, as suggestions. Jordy Nelson was one of them. Jimmy Graham, he's a free agent.

I don't know what the deal is with him. Maybe he'll be better on a different offense. I don't know. But it's pretty disappointing, his production, just so touchdown dependent. And then I'm worried about Andrew Luck. As the resident Andrew Luck fan, I'm very concerned about his long-term health. The reports are going to be very important for Luck. As the resident Andrew Luck fan, I'm very concerned about his long-term health. The reports are going to be very important for Luck, but he may never be

the same. I hope that's not the case. We could use a great young quarterback with a lot of years left in his career. Where would you consider him if he's ready for training camp? Top what? I'm just not sure I'm ready to buy back into him being top five. Like nothing ever happened.

But if he goes through offseason, like, you know, we come out of, you know, the combine. And whatever he did in Europe, all these, you know, things, he had a second surgery. On track, we'll be there, minicamp, OTAs, training camp. No hesitation. I mean, I guess top guess top like six-ish I guess But I'm not ready to buy into a top five But top six I'm all in

I'm not going to be the one who drafts him this time He's going to fall it's going to be a perfect scenario Well if he falls it would be one thing but He's going to fall Everybody's going to feel the way you do which they should You're taking Cam over him right I guess You're taking Russell Wilson over him Yeah for sure for sure. And of course, Brady and Rogers. Carson

Wentz? Yeah, I think I would take Wentz over him. Watson? Watson? I'd have to take Watson over him, yeah. Goff? Nah. So I think you settled in about eighth. Yeah, I'd probably take Eli over him. Drew Brees? Just a joke. Yeah, I'd take Drew Brees over him. So he's down to ninth. All right, cool. So ninth. No, I wouldn't take Jameis over Luck. Would you?

In that scenario, that he's fine? Yeah. I'll take Luck. Yeah. Yeah. But that's not going to be the scenario. We may get him by training camp, but I don't think you're going to get him in OTAs and minicamp. All right, last one.

Most likely to thrive on a new team next year. Most likely to thrive on a new team. This is a really tough one because I was going through the list of free agents. You don't know. Like a lot of these guys, the team has kind of the ability to decide if they're going to let them go or not first. Yeah, right. So you've got to do a little bit of projecting. But I'm going to say Carlos Hyde.

You don't think he comes back? I am not so sure. I think the relationship is much better than it was at the beginning of this year. It sounds like it was just motivation. Matt Breida has done a lot of good things this year. They still have Joe Williams that's going to be coming off of IR next year. And Carlos Hyde's a free agent, and they need to go get a wide receiver for Jimmy Garoppolo.

I'm not sure they've prioritized spending money on Carlos Hyde. So if he goes somewhere with a good offensive line, and ends up in a lot of good game scripts, I still believe he could be a top five running back. Cool. Alright. Jamie, most likely to thrive on a new team next year?

I don't know if thrive, but at least do the same thing. Kirk Cousins? Yep. Where do you think he goes? Denver or Cleveland? What about Jacksonville? You think they're committed to Bortles? They might be committed to Bortles.

Well, they have to pay him next year. So if they win a playoff game, or put it this way, if he finishes playing well next week, even if they lose in the playoff game I think they're committed to him If he stinks up the place in the playoffs Then you'll probably see somebody brought in for competition Maybe a guy like Eli

I don't think they go the franchise route yet But if they win a playoff game I don't think that's their biggest need I would love to see Cousins go to Denver That would be awesome I wouldn't mind him in their biggest need. I would love to see Cousins go to Denver. That would be awesome. I wouldn't mind him in Cleveland, to be honest with you. Yeah, that wouldn't be bad either, especially if Josh Gordon is still there. Oh, Josh Gordon too, yeah.

Sam Bradford was another guy. I mean, I think Cousins is the kind of obvious answer. Maybe Jim Caron? Yeah, that's a good one. Maybe Alex Smith. I'm interested to see what Sam Bradford can do. Give a lot of credit to the Minnesota coaching staff. They've done great things with quarterbacks,

so Bradford would have to obviously leave that. But maybe he goes to Washington. Mr. Bradford goes to Washington. Who knows? Alex Smith in Cleveland? How do they get rid of Alex Smith after this season? Well, if they lose in the first round of the playoffs, it's easy to get rid of Alex Smith. Even if they lose in the second round.

Like, you've seen the peak of Alex Smith. I guess. But you could argue that he's finally got great weapons around him, and he had a great season. And they had to pay him, what, $20 million next year? Or your starting quarterback can be making a million? I guess that helps. That's the formula for success. That helps.

We got some other podcasts for you. First of all, Fantasy Football Today is not going anywhere. We've got two shows a week throughout the offseason. So this is a great way to get a leg up on the competition and to have some fun. We'll keep you entertained throughout the offseason. But if you want to listen to some other podcasts like the Pick 6 podcast or Off the Bench, just go to cbssports.com slash podcast and check out our other listings, cbssports.com slash podcast, singular.

We still have fantasy football today, our live video show for Week 17. It's noon Eastern on Monday through Friday and 11 a.m. Eastern on Sunday morning until kickoff. And we have one more radio show, me and Heath on Saturday night, 10 p.m. Eastern until midnight, taking your phone calls. Now, we get phone calls start to finish, basically full board of calls the entire season.

And it's great. And it makes the show fly by and it makes the show really, really fun. And by the way, I am going to try to find a way to incorporate some, like a call element to our podcast during the offseason. It's a goal of mine.

So be on the lookout for that. But we don't get a lot of calls in Week 17 typically. So last year was New Year's Eve. This year is December 30th. Heath, I think we should get some phone calls. I want to encourage all of our listeners, if you want to join the show, be part of it in Week 17. Talk to us a little bit. You can call us up on CBS Sports Radio, 10 p.m. Eastern until midnight.

You can also listen on CBSSportsRadio.com, but you can check your local affiliate, see if it's on your AM dial. And the number is 855-212-4227, 855-212-4227. So if you want to talk to us, you want to hang out, you want to talk a little bit about Week 17 or the season review or look ahead to next year, whatever it is, you give us a call and we'll get you on the air. You know what? We had a lot of people, and I know maybe it's not a lot based on the volume of people that listen, but we still see a lot of people. Could you talk more about Dynasty? Could you talk more about Keepers? And we would like to.

This would be a good opportunity. If you want to talk about Dynasty or Keep keepers we'll be able to answer those questions on saturday night but i promise also off-season podcast we will absolutely talk about that it's a good call heath so all right thanks for that some news and notes bruce arians he's not he's not saying yet if he's going to be coaching arizona next season but you know we'll see this could be his last game as a coach at Seattle. DeMarco Murray could have a limited role this week. We're all about Derrick Henry, right?

Yeah, he's our start of the week this week. All right, bring it on. You know what their record is when he plays at least 19 snaps? No. Wait, wait, wait. When he plays at least 19 snaps? Yeah, when Derrick Henry plays at least 19 snaps, you know what the Titans record is. I'm just surprised. I'll tell you, that know what the Titans record is. I'm just surprised.

I'll tell you, that's happened nine times this year. I'm surprised by that number. No, what is their record? You thought it would be higher? Yeah. Well, there's a little bit of chicken and egg to this. Okay. Oh, right.

When they're leading, they give them the ball more. What's their record? I'm asking you a guess. Nine games, seven and two. You are off by a game. Eight and one. Eight and one. And they were eight and oh going into last week.

I'm just surprised that he doesn't play that many snaps every game. He just doesn't play that much. There was a lot of 18s in there. Okay. If they'd just given him one more snap, he would have won. Well, it's funny. I knew you were going to laugh at that because there's four times in his career where he's had at least 14 carries. Yeah.

And he's had double-digit fancy points in all 14 of them, but he's had about five 13s. Yep, yep. That's the threshold for Derek Henry. Denver hopes to start Paxton Lynch at quarterback. We know what that means for Demarius Thomas, but he could be facing a Chiefs team that doesn't – well, he will be facing a Chiefs team that doesn't care. So we'll talk about that game. Emmanuel Sanders, day-to-day.

Jeremy Macklin could return this week. There is an article that the listeners have been sending me from the New York Times about when to shower, at night or in the morning. I encourage everyone to read it. Yeah, but you actually have to shower. I showered last night. Yeah, but that's like random. I didn't read the article, but can I guess

what the results say? Sure. That you should do both. Not that you should do both, but that like there's no right answer. And you do get dirty while you sleep.

But my whole point is like you're dirty when you get into bed. That's disgusting. It's disgusting. What does your wife do? Morning. So wait a minute.

So one half of the bed is clean and one half is dirty? Exactly. My half's clean. You guys ever sleep over? My half, clean. Do you expect the following players? Melvin Gordon. Kind of. Yeah. All right. Come players? Melvin Gordon. Kind of.

Yeah. All right. Come on, Melvin Gordon. Damian Williams against Buffalo. Nope. Joe Mixon at Baltimore. No. James White against the Jets.

No. Chris Hogan against the Jets. No. Sterling Shepard against Washington. No. Evanling Shepard against Washington. No. Evan Ingram against Washington. No. How about Alan Hearns and Marquise Lee?

Lee, no for sure. Hearns, possibly. And Devontae Adams at Detroit? No. Deshaun Jackson against the Saints? No. All right. There'sun Jackson against the Saints? No. All right. There's your Do You Expect for Week 17.

We'll have more of that. Get excited. I just want to share congratulations to Laura Foley. She won the podcast league with her team Duke Nukem, and she had Nuke DeAndre Hopkins, and he helped Laura Foley win the championship. Her starting running backs in a 14-team PPR league in the championship were Javoris Allen, Joe Mixon, and Isaiah Crowell. Isaiah Crowell was her flex.

Nice. Yeah. How about that? Five fantasy points for all three of them. I'm glad I could contribute to that. I dropped Allen a few weeks back. Well, you didn't contribute much, but she got him. Well, I did because it gave her someone's start. Five fantasy points. She could't contribute much, but she got him, and he... Well, I did,

because it gave her someone's start. Five fantasy points. She could have started nobody, and she could have won. And congratulations to Alex Wondorowski, who won the Rejects League with his team Make America Great Again, and he Todd Gurleyed it to the championship,

and he won Week 16 with Michael Crabtree in his lineup. That's what Todd Gurley will do for you. So congratulations, Alex and Laura, winners of our podcast leagues. So before we get to the tough calls, how about some 2018 rankings? I just asked you for your top two at each position. No big deal. Top two.

Who are your top two quarterbacks? Heath Cummings. I feel really boring by saying this, but I'm just going to say Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Jamie, agree, disagree? I will go Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Me too! That's what I went with. Rodgers and Wilson.

Take that, Heath! I'm okay with that. I'm a big supporter of Russell Wilson's. Of course, if he's the second quarterback being drafted, I probably won't get any of them this year. Yeah, I can see that. Alright, so Tom Brady or Russell Wilson after Aaron Rodgers. Top two running backs next year. Jamie?

Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell. Yep. Okay, that's a sweep. Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell. So who's three? Zeke. Yeah, I would say it has to be Zeke. And I'm – what did you go, David Johnson, four?

Yeah, I was going to say Johnson PPR, though. Okay. All right, top two wide receivers. This one might be even easier. Nuke and Antonio Brown. Yep. In that order? That's the order I've got them in.

Whoa, okay, interesting. Antonio Brown. Yep. In that order? That's the order I've got him in. Whoa! Okay. Interesting. There's a little bit of concern that who is Antonio Brown's quarterback going to be. Yeah, I'm just Roethlisberger-ing it. Let's just say it's Ben. I think I'm still going to go Hopkins. Jamie?

I'll take Brown, but it's close. Okay. Hopkins has pulled ahead of Antonio Brown as Antonio Brown has missed a game and a half. Hopkins is now three points ahead of him in standard, but actually two points behind Brown in PPR. And Hopkins will finish this year as the number one wide receiver unless he doesn't do much in week 17. And Tyreek Hill has about 60 fantasy points this week. I don't think Tyreek Hill is going to play so that would be difficult. Now then Keenan Allen is going to need about

60 fantasy points this week to pull ahead of DeAndre Hopkins. Those two guys, Hopkins and Brown are 50 fantasy points better than number 3 Tyreek Hill. And that's in standard. In PPR it's an even bigger gap. Keenan Allen would be third In PPR, it's an even bigger gap. Keenan Allen would be third in PPR.

I would say don't blame Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen for that. Blame Julio Jones and A.J. Green, the guys that were supposed to be third and fourth. Yeah, they are fifth and sixth. Okay, top two tight ends for next year. Gronk and... Yeah, it's one of those two. Kelsey. Yep, Gronk and Yeah It's one of those two Kelsey

Yep Gronk and Kelsey Is this really this easy? I think so It was a stupid exercise Who's the number three wide receiver? Number three wide receiver? Yeah

I'll probably still go Julio Who is the coach in Cincinnati? Bill Belichick. Big coup. Okay, big coup. Wow, breaking news. I'll take Odell third. Yeah, who is the quarterback in New York?

I think it'll be Eli. I don't think it matters. I think Odell and DeAndre Hopkins will probably survive no matter anybody named Brock Osweiler. I think I'm going to go Julio there. I think Julio is going to finish as the number one wide receiver next year. He actually was the first guy that came to mind when you said, we'll never be themselves again. Oh, really?

How come? Too entry prone? I mean, he was just himself on Sunday. Consistently banged up, though. I mean, he's just not right. Yeah. He is always banged up. But, you know, that said, he's got – He is consistently banged up, though. I mean, he's just not right. Yeah, he is always banged up. But, you know, that said, he's got—

That is himself. He's always been banged up. He's third in yards, just behind Hopkins. Right now, Antonio Brown is 1,533 yards. That's amazing. Okay, but where's T.Y. Hilton on that list? Just to tell you how skewed that list could be. No, he's not even close.

He's got 952 yards. Then Hopkins has 1378 and Julio has 1364. And he's got to... No, I mean, that's the thing. I think he will. Jarvis Landry's got eight this year. I believe there will be a year.

Yeah, I believe there will be a year where Julio Jones has double-digit touchdowns again. I'm not going to say for sure. It's next year. Right. Yeah, I mean, I kind of feel the same way, but I don't have a great reason for it. Just he's too good not to. Yep. Did you know that Jarvis Landry

has the third most targets inside the 10 this year? They're finally using him. Is Jimmy Graham first? I think so. I'll check right now. I can probably tell you his last. He wears 89 for the Raiders. Yeah.

Or maybe 11 for the Falcons. Let's find out where those guys are. We'll find out right after this. The ultimate football watching. We're taking a commercial? Yeah. Basically. The ultimate football watching experience is Xfinity X1.

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up. You get your CBS Sports Fantasy Football matchup live. You get weekly projections. You get roster trends right on your TV. I know the season's over, but this is still something that you should be looking at because I think all of you fantasy football fans will really like it. Cool stuff. Great for NFL fans. Great for fantasy football fans. Learn more at xfinity.com slash sports. That is xfinity.com slash sports. Here are your targets leaders inside the 10-yard line. Jimmy Graham is one. Jarvis Landry is three. Any guesses on who is two? He plays in the AFC West.

Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen. And this, okay, get ready to tie your shoes and check your socks because I'm about to knock them off. Number four is Julio Jones. Inside the 10? knock them off. Number four is Julio Jones. Inside the 10? Inside the 10, number four is Julio Jones. I didn't even see that this morning when I looked up Jarvis Landry's stats. I just stopped at Landry.

Isn't that crazy? He's got four catches on 11 targets and one touchdown, whereas Jarvis Landry has nine catches on 12 targets and eight touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. I'm going to guess, and Adam, if you want to look this up since you have it in front of you. I'm going to guess that in the last four years, Calvin Johnson has more targets inside the 10 than Julio Jones. Factoring in that Calvin hasn't played in two years. Oh, all right.

I'll look that up in a moment. So why don't I turn the floor over to you? So I need to look up red zone receiving stats for 2014, 15, 16, and 17? Mm-hmm. Just for those two guys. Okay. I will. All right.

Tough call is for week 17. Tom Brady, last four games, eight fantasy points at Buffalo. No, not tough. Stored him. How can you say that? The Jets are bad. So are the – well, I guess not the Bills, but the Dolphins are bad. The Steelers are bad.

He had 17 points at the Steelers. The Steelers are also bad against the run, so that's kind of hard to say. The Jets have been bad against the run now. We're not ranking Alex Smith. We're not ranking Jared Goff. We expect Nick Foles to play half a game. I understand he's a start, but is he a tough call? No.

Again, if you play into Week 17 and he's gotten you here against the Jets, I understand he's been bad. I get it. But this is not the game you're going to sit in. He's my number two quarterback. Yeah, I think he's number one for me. I don't even know where I have him. All right.

Can I just finally give you the last five quarterbacks against the Jets? Yes. Cam Newton, 16 points. Alex Smith, 45. Trevor Simeon, 15. Drew Brees, 21 fantasy points, six points for passing touchdown leagues. Phillip Rivers, 17.

So take away Simeon. If you extrapolate a couple of those Breeze, 21, is like a 27 point day Because Breeze just doesn't give you big games anymore And you said Simeon was 15? Yeah, forget him That's like 40 Cam Newton, 16, Phillip Rivers, 17

And Alex Smith had the monster game with 45 But alright, alright Fine, not a tough call for you You guys are starting Tom Brady How about Latavius Murray? Tough call for you. You guys are starting Tom Brady. How about Latavius Murray? Tough call for Latavius Murray against Chicago? No. Not really. He's a

solid number two running back for me this week. All right. I'll make the case against him. I think Jared McKinnon's running a lot better, and I'm very interested to see what the splits are this week, because McKinnon was killing the clock against Green Bay. Latavius Murray wasn't getting it done. He's averaging 3.2 yards per carry in his last three games,

and I'm just starting to wonder if they trust him now or if McKinnon starts getting a bigger workload. The only thing that I can use to predict what his workload is going to be is what the workload has been this year, and especially recently. I think he has at least 20 carries in each of his last two games. He does, yeah. So I don't think they're – I think Jarek McKinnon's a better running back. I think he should get a larger split of the work, but they're not giving us any indication that they believe that.

Well, I just wonder if the end of the Packers game, they're running out the clock and they're using McKinnon instead of Murray, who's been terrible for three straight games, is any indication that they're ready to go in the other direction. And the Bears run defense is not nearly as good on the road. It isn't. But it's still, I guess

I really can't make the case. If this were a home game, it'd be a tougher home game for the Bears. It'd be a tougher call, I guess, on Murray, but I can't say that the Bears have a good run defense on the road. All right, so Murray is easy for you? Yep. Okay.

Des Bryant at Philadelphia. Yes, that is a difficult call. I would rather just say bench him, but there's enough receivers that we're without this week that he's a number three, borderline number two type guy. You're hoping he scores a touchdown. Eagles pass defense is not very good. So, yeah, it's tough.

The positive is that you're probably going to see a couple guys on the Eagles, mostly their pass rush resting, especially after Brandon Graham got hurt last week. The negative is the Jerry Jones saying that Cooper Rush may play. Some in Week 17. So if you were to tell me that Dak and Dez are playing three-plus quarters, for sure, which I would anticipate that still being the case, then I think you can buy back into Dez in this matchup as a number two wide receiver. But the fact that they may pull Dak at some point, maybe it's a half, who knows.

I don't want to trust Dez with what he's shown me with Cooper Rushpoint. Especially if Tyron Smith is out too. I don't think Calvin Johnson is going to win this contest, by the way, but I'm almost done tallying. Next guy is A.J. Green. A.J. Green at Baltimore. And Baltimore is not allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in six straight games. They have given up some big-time yardage, though. I think four or five have 90 or more yards in those six games.

Yeah, five wide receivers have 90 or more yards against Baltimore in their last six games, but none have caught a touchdown. Is A.J. Green a tough call for you this week? No. He's kind of tough for me. I think I'm still probably starting him, but I don't feel great about it. Jamie, how do you feel about A.J. Green? I just don't think the Ravens secondary is great since Jimmy Smith has gone out.

No, but I'm looking at a guy who's just not playing that well. Well, I mean, if you're saying he's got 10 targets in three of his last four games. He had six for 81 last week. I mean, that's a good floor. It's not A.J. Green's floor, but it's a good floor. Yeah, I guess I'm looking at it like normal week, most know most likely starting aj green got championships here you got great teams i don't know is he is he more than eight fantasy points in standard i'll take the over i would just barely take the over all right that i think be right in that range update

on the contest julio jones had a lot more red zone targets inside the 10 than I thought. Calvin Johnson had 6 in 2014 and 9 in 2015 for a total of 15 red zone targets. Julio Jones has 11 this year, 17, 28, 34 in his last four seasons. Wow. More than I thought. Well, he had 5, then he had 12. Then he had six. Now he's 11. So he's alternating high volume in the red zone.

Inside the 10, pardon me. That's not good for your guys' suggestion of him scoring. No, it's not. 10 plus touchdowns next week. All right. Next up, we have Jimmy Graham against Arizona. In his last three games, Jimmy Graham, no joke, has a combined two catches for two yards and a touchdown in his last three games on six targets. Most good tight ends, including Jimmy Graham, who had six for 27 and two against Arizona, have done well against the Cardinals.

But, boy, it's been tough for Jimmy Graham lately. Is he a tough call this week? Yes. Heath? Yeah, I would say he is a tough call. I'm probably still starting him just because he's tight end, and tight end's terrible. But if Eric Ebron was somehow still out there, I'd rather start him.

I'd rather start Charles Clay. I'd rather start Jack Doyle. Gates, too. Okay, Gates. What about Cameron Braid or Jimmy Graham? I'd go Graham. I'd go Graham, too, because they're both kind of touched on their bust. Okay, Devontae Freeman against Carolina.

A couple stats here. Number one, what I've said over and over, only three running backs have double-digit fantasy points in standard scoring leagues against Carolina. That would be Kenyon Drake and both Saints guys. And then Devontae Freeman, there's another stat. He has either had

12 or fewer carries or 18 or more carries every week, except for two carries when he got hurt against Dallas. There's no in-between. So there hasn't been like a 15-carry game or anything. It's either about 12 or 18 or more. In the seven games in which Devontae Freeman has had 12 or fewer carries, he has not had double-digit fantasy points in any of those games. So it really is a matter of how many carries will he get.

And he only got 12 last week. They didn't have a ton of time of possession. Tevin Coleman played. So anyway, is Devontae Freeman a tough call against Carolina? He's a tough call, I think, if you're considering him among the elite running backs for this week. He's outside my top 12. I'd rather start Derek Henry.

I'd rather start Giovanni Bernard. Exactly. I've got him 15th, so it makes it look like it's not really a tough call. But there are certainly guys you could have on your roster, including the two Jamie said, Kenyon Drake, CJ Anderson. I'd rather start all those guys over Freeman. Dion Lewis? How about Latavius Murray or Devontae Freeman? I have them back-to-back, but I have Freeman higher.

I'd still go Freeman just because both guys are sharing touches. And if Murray doesn't score, you're probably in trouble. There's a better chance that Devontae Freeman has a better total yards game. Now, yeah, in those games where he gets like 12 carries, a lot of times he's getting over 70 yards or so. He's running the ball really well this year. What about A.J. Green or Devont well this year. What about A.J. Green or Devontae Freeman?

I'll take A.J. Green. I'll take Freeman and Standard. Alright, two more players here on the tough calls, and then we'll read some emails. And they're facing each other, Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Who do you like better this week, and are they tough calls? I like Jameis better,

and I don't think they're tough calls. I like Jameis better, and I don't think they're tough calls. I like Jameis better. I do think Breeze is a bit of a tough call just because of the volume concerns. So he's a top-ten quarterback for me, but there are guys that you could have that I'd rather start Cousins, Winston, and even Ryan over him. It's crazy, man. Tampa Bay, they allow the most passing yards in the NFL, yet they have held five straight quarterbacks to 18 or fewer fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues.

And in those five games, Matt Ryan, Brett Hundley, Stafford, Ryan again, and Cam Newton. Not exactly crap competition there. Three touchdown passes, four interceptions. Also a rushing touchdown. but that's incredible. I don't understand how it's happening. So you like Jameis better, though, than Drew Brees? Yeah.

It's just hard when he's probably going to throw ten more passes. You can't make the case of Jameis over Tom Brady this week? I mean, you can obviously make the case. A good case? I think Jameis has thrown the ball 50 times. So his 40-plus pass attempts can certainly result in more fantasy points than what Brady will give you. But the matchup's better for Brady.

And I'll lean toward Guy playing for something more so than guy that doesn't have anything to play for. All right, then that's your tough calls. Fantasy week 17 starter sit on Thursday and on Friday, some emails, fantasy football at cbsi.com helping out the people, Andrew in a mountain Oregon town.

Yeah, I have no idea. No idea. He says, hey, Alex, Nick, Blake, and Jared. Are those all playoff QBs? Yeah, it sounds like it. Smith, Foles, Bortles, Goff. Sure.

All right, the league I'm in combines week 16 and 17. Not stoked on it, but whatever. I put in waivers to get Garoppolo and Flacco, Gates, Wallace, and Selick. Who do I start out of the guys I'm picking up in PPR? Garoppolo, Flacco. Well, Garoppolo will probably catch more passes. Yeah, I'd go Garoppolo. Garoppolo over Flacco?

Yep. Okay. Gates, I'd go Garoppolo. Garoppolo over Flacco? Yep. Okay. Gates, Wallace, Selick. I don't know if he just needs to choose between the tight ends or if he's choosing between. It's obviously Gates over Selick. Gates or Wallace? I'd go Wallace over Gates. If it is a PPR?

Yeah. Yeah, then you go Wallace. Standard would be closer. All right. This is from Joshua. PPR, pick two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex. Okay, here are the running backs. Derrick Henry, Jamal Williams, Mark Ingram, Devontae Freeman.

Henry and Ingram. Henry and Ingram? Okay. And the wide receivers, pick two. Crowder, Martavis Bryant, Keenan Allen. Crowder and Allen. Yep. Crowder and Allen.

All right, so pick a flex. Jamal Williams. Oh, wait. Who did you say? Derrick Henry and Ingram, you said? Yep. Okay, so then Jamal Williams, Devontae Freeman, Martavis Bryant. Who's your flex?

It's PPR, by the way. That's tough. Who'd your flex? It's PPR, by the way. That's tough. Who'd you say? Williams. Williams. Williams? Yep. Really?

All right. Over Freeman and Martavis. I mean, Freeman just doesn't catch the ball when Tevin Coleman's healthy. And I think Williams is going to get by far the most. He might have more touches than Bryant and Freeman combined. Cool. So this is from Mike on a town, from a town on the Jersey Shore. Atlantic City?

Is that the town on the Jersey Shore, is it? I guess it probably is, right? Jersey City? Okay. Let's go with Atlantic City I like it You ever been there? You ever been there, Heath? No, I've never been to the northeast

In any shape, fashion, or form Are you serious? That is a lie Okay, that's not true I went for a radio show I flew up, flew back the next day And you went to Philadelphia So I did fly to D.C. for a promotional thing for like eight hours.

I've never toured the Northeast. Sorry. You are missing out. You got to go to New York City, Heath. Well, you did have an invitation that you could sleep on Adam's side of the bed. That's true. That's something I will consider. I'll discuss it with my wife.

You got to move the cat. Oh, yeah, the cat sleeps there. It's probably not that clean. Never mind. I was going to make a joke in relation to what you said yesterday. Oh, the best contest. Yes, yes. You can discuss those leagues while you're sharing.

This is very disgusting. He says, hey, Jericho, Wayne, Steven, and Ardarius. Those are all very talented Jets wide receivers. Yes, absolutely. All right, Mike. So Mike from Atlantic City. He and his opponent ended up tied in the Week 16 championship. The first tiebreaker is total bench points.

We both have 37 points on our bench. I don't know what the second tiebreaker is, so I sent a league-wide email asking for clarification. I raised the idea of a possible Week 17 rematch. Turns out the second tiebreaker is regular season head-to-head record. I won the season series 2-0. But the floodgates are open now and several league members are suggesting that the second tiebreaker rule is flawed because regular season record has no real bearing on the championship matchup. Most are calling to put

aside the rules and go for a rematch. One person even says my victory would be tainted. The commissioner defers to me, and after thinking about it for a while, I agree to replaying it next week. I'm an idiot, right? For what it's worth, my opponent is offering to split the pot if he wins, but I should keep the full amount if I win. So to summarize, Mike is tied. Second tiebreaker is regular season head-to-head. He wins it. Everybody hates it. He agrees to play a rematch in Week 17. He thinks he's an idiot. What do you think?

He's not an idiot. It sounds like maybe he's too easily influenced by his friends. What was his suggestion? Okay. Then he's just bad. He's generous. You're a very nice guy. Very nice guy, Mike. I think the fact – well, first off, his opponent is generous because allowing him to split the pot if he loses is nice.

Yeah. You know, since they're going to replay it. So I think they're both generous. So why not? I mean, if your team is better, prove it next week. You know, the only thing that would be unfortunate is if you got there with Todd Gurley and now you're not going to have him. Also, maybe you should have a rules vote and change to decimal scoring for next year. So this is less likely to happen.

Yeah, I just think that if it's – I don't know why everybody is so up in arms. If it's in your league rules, then it's in your league rules, and you have to honor that. Right. This is usually the way that bad rules get changed. It happens, and everybody is, this is bad, so we'll change the rule. But you should change the rule for next year, not for now. Yeah, I mean, if it's unanimous and everybody's okay with it, then do it now. But I don't know that you need to be okay with it.

You could have easily walked away with that victory, Mike. But you're doing a nice thing. Meyer from Kennewick, Washington. I'm sure I mispronounced that. Week 17, Cowboys are playing for nothing. Does Zeke play, and if he does, how much is he going to produce against a good run defense in Philadelphia? Will Demboys try

to showcase one of their backups for trading? What do you think? Who's trading for Alfred Morris or Rod Smith? I don't think so. I think if they're trying to figure out anything, it would be Rod Smith could be a featured guy in case Zeke gets hurt. That would be the only scenario I would see this happening, and they had plenty of opportunities to do that.

Zeke is going to get a heavy workload against potentially a lot of backups for Philadelphia. So you can make a case that after what Mike Tomlin said, that the Steelers may rest, guys, that he's the best running back this week if Le'Veon doesn't play very much. His other options are Josh Gordon, Sammy Watkins, and Wayne Gallman, so you're going to start Zeke. And the other question for Meyer, Bortles or Cousins this week? I love Cousins this week.

Cousins. Cousins is going to be better than Brady this week. Cousins, for sure. Better than Brady, you said? Yes. He could. Man, you hate Tom Brady. I love Cousins, for sure. Better than Brady, you said? Yes. He could? Man, you hate Tom Brady. I love Cousins. He's going to have a huge chance. Yeah, Cousins should go off.

Yeah. I almost made him the star of the week, but I don't want to have somebody that has nothing to play for, really. Yeah, about that whole nothing to play for thing, I mean, I guess I really want to go back and look it up, but it's not that easy. I tried to look up scenarios last year where one team had nothing to play for and one team had a lot to play for, and it was kind of difficult. The Raiders had a lot to play for last year in Week 17,

but they were missing Derek Carr, and they had a terrible game. The Chiefs had a very good game. They had a lot to play for. Tom Brady was the number one quarterback, I think, last year in Week 17. He was up there. He had a lot to play for. He had to wrap up the number one seed. And think, last year in Week 17. He was up there. He had a lot to play for. He had to wrap up the number one seed. And the Dolphins in that game—

But you hate Brady this week, though, in that same scenario. I don't hate Brady. You did. I don't hate Brady. You said, like, 12 quarterbacks. You play over him. That's not true. I said Kirk Cousins.

You said Cousins. You said Jameis. No, I didn't say that. You said Jared Goff, even though he's not going to play. You said you would take the chance on Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady. I mean, listen, we have to tell people everything that you edit out while you have to go to the course of the show. That's it. You said Paxton Lynch will be better than Brady.

I said that. I said preseason Paxton Lynch will be better than Brady. No, no, no. I mean, let's not be ridiculous. But you said earlier in the show, if people rewind to the Jameis Winston part, they'll hear like a little skip. It's where you edited it and you gave us the list of all the other quarterbacks that you like better than Tom Brady this week. Yeah, it was a long list.

Absolutely. Tim Tebow. All right, this is an email. I mean, again, don't be silly. Just be realistic. This is an email from Alexander. He said Eli Manning better than Tom Brady. Dear Hazel, Korn, pea, and wall.

Those are nuts. Yeah, there you go. I can't believe I just Googled that. That was bad. Wait, did you Google hazel, corn, pea, and wall, or did you Google nuts? Best balls. My buddy and I are starting a dynasty best ball league. Do you guys have any advice for handling dues in a dynasty

format what happens if someone gets a team into a bad state and then loses interest and drops out we're thinking about maybe making them anti up for like three years of dues what do you guys think i think that's a very good idea the other thing is a lot of times to get somebody to take over a rebuilding team you have to offer a discount for the first year or two. Hopefully not. Hopefully it doesn't get that bad before the person leaves or gets kicked out. But if you've got a team that's just in dire straits and you would like to keep it a 12 or 14 team league or whatever it is,

then you've got to give that person some sort of incentive for the next year or two and they know they won't be competing. And it's okay to just lower the pot a little bit. It just has to be agreed upon by the league. Okay, last email here. From Justin, Dear Tom, Dion, Rob, and Brandon.

What was it again? It's Patriots, but there's an E in the Dion when there shouldn't be. Tom, Dion, Rob, and Brandon. I'm thinking, Jamie, I don't remember a Dion on Game of Thrones. 10-team, 2-quarterbacks, six-point per passing league, passing touchdown league.

It's PPR. It's a keeper league. I lost Rodgers, Watson, and Beckham, and I still won my league. All right, Justin, way to go. Who would you keep? PPR. Gronk in the fourth. Oh, it's two QBs.

Gronk in the fourth. Oh, he doesn't have any QBs. Gronk in the fourth, Hunt in the third. Dion Lewis in the ninth. Michael Thomas in the third. Keenan Allen in the fourth. Oh, he doesn't have any QBs. Gronk in the fourth. Hunt in the third. Deion Lewis in the ninth. Michael Thomas in the third. Keenan Allen in the sixth. Wow. All right, I'll read it again.

Gronk in the fourth. Kareem Hunt in the third. Michael Thomas in the third. Keenan Allen in the sixth. Deion Lewis in the ninth. Keenan Allen in the sixth. Wow, this is tough. It's really hard.

It is very, very difficult. I think I agree with Jamie. Go back to the receivers. Can you make a case Keenan Allen's the third best receiver next year? You could make that case. I mean, yeah, I guess. Nobody's going to do it. He's going to be the number three receiver this year.

Maybe. Oh, yeah, he'll probably jump Tyreek Hill, right? So he'll be number three. And next year,, but he's going to be the number three receiver this year. Maybe. Oh, yeah, he'll probably jump Tyreek Hill, right? So he'll be number three. And next year, I think he's a contract year for him. You're keeping Keenan Allen in the sixth over Rob Gronkowski in the fourth. I'm drafting Keenan Allen before Rob Gronkowski next year. So it's a two-round discount for somebody I'd rather have. That's interesting.

Jamie, who would you draft first, Gronkowski or Allen? I probably will take Gronk first, but I still think the value is better for Keenan Allen with the two-round difference. Heath Gronk is a more valuable player, isn't he? Yes. He has been at times.

He always is when he's healthy. And you can't really play the health card When you compare Gronk and Keenan Allen Yeah That's maybe true Maybe not I think you're going to come around By Saturday night's radio show you're taking Gronk before Keenan Allen

You got two old quarterbacks Yeah one of them is worse than Paxton Lynch Well according to you it's Brady Okay That's it for the show We're done than Pax and Lynch. Well, according to you, it's Brady. Okay. That's it for the show.

We're done. We'll talk to you tomorrow with the AFC home games. Friday with the NFC home games. No mailbag this week. Not as many emails as you might imagine. And everybody, I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday. See you later. Bye. It's all right.

I've got Le'Veon. It's all right. Not George Le'Veon. It's all right. See you later. Bye.