Fantasy Football Today - 12/27: Start or Sit (AFC); Interesting Rankings (Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: December 27, 2018

Some of the more intriguing rankings in Week 17 involve Melvin Gordon, Russell Wilson, RBs in general and Deshaun Watson. We start the show discussing those guys ... News and notes from around the NFL (7:50) including a look at the complicated PIT and KC backfields ... NYJ-NE (10:30), CIN-PIT (18:45), CLE-BAL (25:25), IND-TEN (29:40), LAC-DEN (35:40), JAC-HOU (40:00), OAK-KC (44:25), MIA-BUF (50:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] This episode is brought to you by www.ZipRecruiter.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! Get your lineup set. It's time for Start or Sit. Let's go! Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and T. Thursday, December 27th, and we are doing Start or Sit.

Two more Start or Sit shows to end the 2018 year and season. Welcome, everybody. This is Fantasy Football Today. I am Adam Azer. We've got Dave Richard and Jamie Eisenberg here. Morning. Morning, dudes. Good morning. Good midday. Good afternoon. Good evening. Yes. Thank you. All of those things. How are we feeling about Week 17?

How do you feel about your rankings? Feel confident? Feel good? Sure. Need to do some updating with some of the practice reports from yesterday, but otherwise fine. Yep. Yeah. Let's get into some of the interesting rankings.

That's what I want to start with, okay? And maybe we'll start with the running back position in general. So you look at your non-PPR. Chris Carson and Sonny Michel are top three running backs for you guys. Yeah, Carson's going to come down a little bit now that Penny's playing. Okay. In PPR, Carson was top five. I'm sure he'll still be top 10. Michel's top 10 in PPR. So maybe no Gurley, no Zeke, Saints guys, Pittsburgh, Kansas City getting complicated. So there aren't a lot of no doubt about it studs.

The McCaffrey situation. So talk to me about running back this week. You're basically starting anybody who has shown effectiveness previously and recently who you know will play a decent amount. You're going to start a lot of guys that you probably never expected to be starting in Week 17. What do you think? The Brian Hills of the world. What do you think about McCaffrey right now?

I mean, we have him for zero projections on the site. They're not expecting him to play. Do you have him ranked? Yeah. I do, too. I've got him ranked as a number two running back. Yep. Okay.

Melvin Gordon is going to play, and he is ninth and seventh for Jamie and Dave in non-PPR, and he is sixth in PPR for Jamie, fourth in PPR for Dave. That is interesting because you are expecting him to be a part of the passing game. By the way, Heath has Melvin Gordon outside his top 10, but inside his top 13. And last week it was Justin Jackson who really stole the catches from Melvin Gordon.

He's at Denver. What is your confidence level in Melvin Gordon? It seems to me like he'd be outside the top 12 in a normal week, at least in non-PPR. Thoughts on Gordon? If he's going to get the work and he's been good before, you're going to start him.

But you're not really ranking him I don't know. With a ton of conviction, it seems. Well, he's going to move up, Adam, because I currently have Carson, Jalen Samuels, and Damian Williams ahead of Melvin Gordon.

And all three of those guys are going to go behind Melvin Gordon. Does Rashad Penny really make that much of a difference for Chris Carson? I think it's twofold. They're probably not going to play him a full four quarters. Right. And Penny taking away a couple of carries. Look, you're not benching Chris Carson. Yeah.

All right. away a couple of carries. Look, you're not benching Chris Carson. Alright, so do you think Melvin Gordon is going to have a good, great, huge, crappy game against Denver? Good. I'll say it borders on great. Because I also think that if they get the Chiefs score, he's coming off the field.

Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson. Let's talk about these two quarterbacks. Start with Watson. Top seven talk about these two quarterbacks. Start with Watson. Top seven guy against the Jaguars. No hesitation in a tough matchup? No, especially since he's going to have to throw. I'm expecting the Jaguars' run defense to play tough and make it hard on whoever's running the ball for you.

I think he'll be a lot of plays with his legs, too. Okay. His first game against Jacksonville was terrible. I think he'll be a lot of plays with his legs, too. Okay. His first game against Jacksonville was terrible. I think he scored 12 fantasy points. Do you know why? Remember? No.

That was the what game? He took the bus to the stadium because he couldn't hit the puncture long. And that's just the half of it. The other half of it is that Jacksonville's run defense took a nap that day. And Lamar Miller had over 100 yards on 22 22 carries the offensive line came together in that game i think the line's gotten a little worse over the last two games for houston i'd be very nervous to use any texans running back this week and i have i have a feeling that jacksonville comes to play and it's going to force deshaun watson to make some well that's i mean so that's interesting because when i saw ranked seventh for Jamie,

fifth for Dave, seventh for Heath, I thought you guys were going to say, what does Jacksonville have to play for? Texans have a lot to play for. They're going to win. It's going to be easy. They can do what they want. Your argument, Dave, at least, is more

Jacksonville's going to play well. That means their run defense is going to be good. And that sets up well for Deshaun Watson. I don't know. Interesting. So, yeah, I guess what I like for Watson is that Jacksonville doesn't really do as well against quarterbacks on the road. Tannehill notwithstanding last week. If this were in Jacksonville, I'd be more nervous.

But I'm a little nervous about Watson because, you know, his last two games have been great, but they were against the Jets and the Eagles. That's a joke compared to the Jaguars. Yeah, I don't think Jacksonville is going to be very competitive. Their performance last week, I think, was much more aided by the Dolphins in that Dolphins. I think this is going to be a game where Watson puts on his shoulders to go win the division.

Okay. How about Russell Wilson? Ranked 12th for both of you, 8th for Heath. I guess my question is, how much are you factoring in the NFL playoff situation when you rank Russell Wilson?

I think you're going to see what happened with Jared Goff. Same thing last week. He'll get some numbers early, they'll run the ball against the Cardinals, and they'll pull Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter. Dave, agreed?

Agreed. Okay. Two DSTs. The Bills DST. Wilson in the fourth quarter. Dave, agreed? Agreed. Two DSTs. The Bills DST. Jamie's got them 16th. Heath, 15th. Dave, you've got the Bills DST 4th. Why don't you guys talk about your differences there with the Bills facing the Dolphins at home? They're home against

Miami. I think the Dolphins are going to be a team that's mailing it in on the road at Buffalo. What a terrible way to end your season. I think the Dolphins are going to be a team that's mailing it in on the road at Buffalo. What a terrible way to end your season. Yeah. I think Buffalo wipes the mat with the Dolphins. They will squish the dish. Yeah, I probably have them a little bit too low, but I think the Dolphins will score on Buffalo. Buffalo's defense has exactly been great.

Buffalo has one sack in their last three games. Yeah, it's not a good defense. But the Dolphins are giving up a ton of sacks lately. But that's mostly by Minnesota game. No, it's weekly. I think they've given up like the fifth most sacks in the NFL. Oh, they're terrible. But a lot of that was the Minnesota and the Jaguars game.

All right. If you look at their fantasy points allowed to DSTs, the Jets, Packers, Bills, Vikings, and Jaguars did well against the Dolphins recently. But it's one of those situations where it's like, Bills, DST, you know, but great match. I understand. That's why the rankings are so different. And then the Chargers DST.

You guys have the Chargers DST as sits outside the top 12. Heath has them seventh. They are at Denver. I think the same thing. They start to pull guys. I don't think they're that good. Their run defense isn't that good that's true but no no philip lindsey you know i know and it is denver yeah i'm just not as confident in them as i was earlier this year by the way the three of the last four dsts

to play against the dolphins scored a minimum of 13 fantasy points. Yeah, Bills, Jags, Vikings. Injuries, news and notes. Todd Gurley missed practice. What do you think? I'm thinking it's going to be a long shot that he plays. Might be too early to tell, but we'll preview that game tomorrow. Get everybody updated.

Spencer Ware practiced in full. So, Chiefs running backs, what do you think? Williams is still the better of the two, but it's not as exciting as it was with Williams getting all the touches. He might get half of what he got you last week. So we talked about Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon having tough matchups. Are you going to start them over the Chiefs running backs? No. I'll start Damian Williams over Chubb. Yeah, over Mixon too for me.

Okay. I'm probably not going to do that. I'm probably going to have Mixon ahead of him. Lamar Miller was limited in practice. We expect him to play against the Jaguars, but not too enthused? Not at all. James Conner practiced in practice. We expect him to play against the Jaguars, but not too enthused? Not at all. James Conner practiced in full.

What do you expect in the Steelers' backfield? A lot of Conner, a little of Samuels, and Messi. Is James Conner a top five running back then? Top 12. Yeah, better than Mixon.

Better than the Chiefs guys? Yeah, better than theon. Better than the Chiefs guys? Yeah, better than the Chiefs guys. It's the Bengals. Yeah, Allen Robinson mispracticed with a foot injury. He's at Minnesota. Not starting him anyway. Although, do we know about Xavier Rhodes? It doesn't look good.

He mispracticed, but I expect him to play. I'm not so sure. Eric Ebron mispracticed. Allen Robinson may not play, too. Yeah, it's the note I just gave. Thank you. The'm not so sure. Eric Ebron mispracticed. Allen Robinson may not play too. Yeah, it's the note I just gave. Thank you. Blake Bortles is going to start for the Jaguars. Marcus Mariota

optimistic about playing this week in that Sunday night game. Tom Brady expects to play in 2019. And the Dolphins are expected to move on from Ryan Tannehill, according to the Miami Herald. Which is interesting. What is out there?

What are you going to do at quarterback if you don't have Ryan Tannehill? The options are not appealing. No, they're not. You can trade for Foles. You can trade for Flacco. You can sign Teddy Bridgewater. You can sign Tyrod Taylor. And then the draft will have some interesting quarterbacks,

but there is no slam dunk. There is no Baker Mayfield in this draft. And there's no Justin Herbert in this draft either. No. Which means the 2020 class is going to be pretty good. Yeah. Oregon's quarterback returning for his senior season. Drew Brees said

Teddy Bridgewater will see some time in their Week 17 game against Carolina. That means we're going to be pretty hands-off on the Saints, I imagine. Yes. So here we go. Let's break down eight AFC home games. Jets. Yeah.

Jets at Patriots. That of the game. It's about Tom Brady. Ten of the last 12 quarterbacks to face the Jets have scored 21 or more fantasy points. And now this one is a little more subjective. I have identified on Tom Brady's schedule 10 easy matchups, which is pretty amazing. That's a lot, 10 out of 15. I think he's done well in eight of them. 23 or more fantasy points in eight of his 10 easy matchups. I certainly consider this an easy matchup.

You guys have Brady kind of low. 15th for Jamie, 14th for Dave, and 10th for Heath. All right, discuss Tom Brady because it seems like he's got a great matchup. He usually does well in good matchups. Jets stink, and you guys aren't really feeling it with Brady. I don't know if the Patri't really feeling it with brady i don't know if the patriots are feeling it with brady they stuck to a very simple game plan last week lots of dinking and dunking which par for the course for them but they will mix in some deep shots first game

without josh gordon there were like none and with gronk's decline, Brady's numbers have gone south. His touchdown was pretty lucky when you go back and look at it. He threw to Edelman underneath. Not pretty lucky, very lucky. And Edelman just, his knees never touched the ground. He like laid on the back of a defender, got up and ran to the end zone. Yeah, it's beautiful. So I don't want to trust Tom Brady, especially with the Patriots almost seemingly trying to hide him by using their run game. If you're starting Brady, you're hoping that James White catches a touchdown.

You're hoping that Ellman catches a touchdown. You're hoping that Gronk catches a touchdown. Two of those three things have to go down in order for Brady to even be close to being a good fantasy quarterback. So who is the better quarterback in this game, Brady or Sam Darnold? Brady. I'm still going to take Brady. Darnold's best game on the road so far this season was 17 points, and the Patriots allow an average of 18 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. And it's Bill Belichick versus a rookie. Who is the best running back in this game? Michelle. Sonny Michelle. He's the start of the week. Who's the second best? McGuire.

McGuire and non-PPR, White and PPR. Start of the week. We need start of the week music. I'm going to work on that for tomorrow. You do that. Just in time for the last podcast regular season. Exactly. Why don't you put that on your list of things to do during the offseason?

I could do it tomorrow. So wait, who's the second best running back in this game? I was thinking about starting. I think it's McGuire. I'll take White in PPR, McGuire in non-PPR. Alright. What do we do with James White? His catches in his last five games,

1, 7, 2, 5, 2, and only one game with more than 25 receiving yards in those five games. Yeah, I don't think that he's worth anything more than a middle of the pack number two running back in PPR because those receptions are great there. Are you going to start Sonny Michel over James Conner? Yes. Yeah. Oh, that's bold.

Non-GPR. Okay. But as we saw last week with Jamal Williams, there have been eight running backs now with more than 12 carries against the Jets. Seven of them have scored 14 or more fantasy points. Six of them have scored 19 or more fantasy points in non-PPR, 21 or more in PPR. So if you get to work against the Jets,

you do well. How about Patriots wide receivers, just Edelman? Just Edelman, yep. Look at this. In the last six games now, the Jets have allowed 70 yards or a touchdown to 12 wide receivers

in their last six games. Two per game! But I think four last week, so that's crazy. All right, starter Sid Gronkowski. Try to sit him. Discuss. He's so great. He had a good game against the Jets.

Three catches, 56 yards, and a touchdown on seven targets. Want to hear a weird stat? Sure. The Jets see the fewest tight end targets in the NFL. 56 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Want to hear a weird stat? Sure. The Jets allow the fewest, or they see the fewest tight end targets in the NFL. Only two tight ends all year have had more than four targets against the Jets. One of them was Gronkowski. The other was Ebron.

They both had seven targets. They both scored a touchdown. So strange. Yeah, I'm fearful of him. He clearly isn't right. He's going to get matched up against Jamal Adams, and I would guess he's going to have another bad game. So which tight ends would you start ahead of Gronkowski that you ordinarily wouldn't?

The only one for me is Herndon. Yeah, start with the other one in this game. Herndon, Evan Engram. I would start Njoku. I would take the chance on Cameron Brait and Vance McDonald. And McDonald I like over him, not Brait. Jamie, you have Hooper ahead of him. Yep.

And Dave, you don't. Yeah, I'm not sure where I'm coming out on Hooper just yet. But for now, he's a set. I guess we're sitting Sam Darnold then. We talked about that. Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield this week if you're stuck. Darnold. Darnold.

Okay. And Eli McGuire. Eli, my boy. Right? Right? You know that movie. Right? Right.

You're right Right. Thanks. So, yeah, how do we feel about him? I gave this stat on Tuesday. Only three running backs in seven Patriots home games have had more than 11 carries against the Patriots. Melvin Gordon or Elijah McGuire? Melvin Gordon. McGuire or Gus Edwards? I've got McGuire a spot higher in non-PPR,

and I'll take McGuire over him in PPR. I'll take McGuire in both. That's a good rhyme. McGuire higher. I like that. McGuire over Lamar Miller? Oh, yeah. For now. Lamar Miller? Oh, yeah. For now.

All right. And then, yeah, so Robbie Anderson. He's been awesome lately, for sure. He's been a league winner. But, you know, the Patriots pretty good at taking away those great wide receivers. They have allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in seven straight games. That included, I think, Jermaine Kearse. Six for 66 in a touchdown. And then, like I mentioned

this on Tuesday, within the seven-game stretch where they allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in every game, Minnesota wide receivers, Pittsburgh wide receivers, Adam Steele and Diggs, Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, all less than 50 yards. So that's Devontae Adams

plus the Minnesota and Pittsburgh wide receivers. All less than 50 yards. How that's Devontae Adams plus the Minnesota and Pittsburgh wide receivers, all less than 50 yards. How confident are you in Robbie Anderson? Fairly. Same as I feel about McGuire. You start him, but not a lot of confidence. I don't have him in my top 15. The only thing that gives me peace is the fact that I believe he's going to get targets,

and he's running a lot of varied routes over the past couple of weeks. He's crossing the middle of the field, lots of double moves. He's going to be able to find ways to get open against this defense. It's just a matter of him being able to beat the double and he's really only going to be able to do that on some of these nuanced routes that seem kind of new for him. Who's a better flex, Elijah McGuire or Robbie Anderson? McGuire,

non-PPR, Anderson, PPR. I'm with it. Robbie Anderson or Damian Williams? I'm probably going to come out on the Williams side. He's going to be out on the Williams side. He's going to be a pain in the butt this week. He's pretty good.

We just don't know. He's been good. You watch him play, and he's good. But he gets like 10 carries without Spencer Ware. I think he still gets 10 even with Spencer Ware. All right, Chris Herndon, we like a lot. Top six tight end for everybody. And sit the DSTs in this game The guys do not like the Patriots' DST

Cincinnati's at Pittsburgh This is crazy This is an updated stat from last week You're looking at Vance McDonald Ten tight ends have caught a touchdown against the Bengals All of them had five or fewer targets This was the stat I gave about Njoku last week, and it was eight tight ends had done it at that point.

Then Njoku and Fels both caught a touchdown last week. So ten tight ends have caught a touchdown against the Bengals, all of them with five or fewer targets. That's why McDonald is interesting. But McDonald, guys, has had good matchups before and hasn't done well with them. So what is your level of confidence for Vance McD? I think he's going to have a chance to score, and it's going to be better than average.

And at tight end at this point in the year, I will gladly take that and put it in my lineup. Cincinnati's corners have played well. Their linebackers and safeties have not. And that's part of the reason why tight ends have had such a great track record of scoring on the Bengals, and I would imagine that the Steelers take advantage. McDonald or Herndon? I've got Herndon higher.

Because I think he can get you yardage and a touchdown. I'll take McDonald in non-PPR and Herndon in PPR. And they're back-to-back in Jamie's rankings in both formats. Stat of the game number two, it's just about the Bengals and how bad they are. They allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, second most to running backs, ninth most to wide receivers,

third most to tight ends, and second most to kickers. But I would be too nervous to start Chris Boswell. With that said, I mean, it's just start everybody for the Steelers, right? Roethlisberger, no-brainer, wide receiver. Yeah, I guess it's Conor. Antonio Brown had one of the best tweets I've seen in a long time. That was funny. What did he say?

He put an S on the end of all of his jerseys and took a picture of it and said, who's got your Browns jerseys ready for this weekend? Because they need the Browns to beat the Ravens. Nice. I like it. Yes, they do. And I kind of hope that happens. I'm conflicted on that.

It's really about who I want to see in the playoffs. I'm very intrigued by this Ravens team. Me too. Yeah, you know what? Screw the Steelers. I mean, the Steelers could win it all too. Yeah, but they had their chance. They lost some games they should have won.

Raiders game? Some stupid ones too. Come on. Anyway, back to this game. James Conner. All right, your thoughts. How much? I know I just asked you this, but what do you expect from James Conner?

I would expect him to lead the way For the run game Might get pulled on some Third downs for Jalen Samuels Samuels might give him a breather from time to time I would ballpark him at 15 carries Two catches

And you're starting pretty much anybody that's got 17 touches or more. Especially against Cincinnati. Right, right. Let's not overlook the matchup. Right. Well, Mixon or Connor? Connor.

Connor. Mixon's going to be tough this week. I think Mixon will be okay. Yeah, he just makes me nervous. He's outside my top 12. Steelers have allowed a touchdown to a running back in nine of their last 11 games, including three rushing touchdowns at the Saints in Week 16. But their run defense is playing pretty well right now.

And this offense is atrocious. Yeah, it is. But it's like Mixon's still pretty productive. I love Mixon. In most cases, you're starting him. I'm not getting cute and starting the Brian Hills of the world over him. Right, right. But it's just tough. I would still start Damian Williams over him. I'm starting of the world over him. Right, right. It's just tough.

I would still start Damian Williams over him. I'm starting James Conner over him. It's not going to be easy for him. Right. His best game came against who two weeks ago? It was a terrible team. Oakland? Oakland.

Oakland? Yeah. Last week, Mixon had 78 total yards on 19 touches at Cleveland. It's a tougher game for sure. Okay. So Mixon, it's not like we're super down on him. He's a top 15 guy. Right. I mean, Steelers have allowed nine rushing touchdowns to running

backs in their last eight games. And Mixon's had at least 15 carries in each of his last three. He's averaged over four yards per carry in those three. You'd feel better about his chances if you knew he was going to score. I'd say the track record of the Steelers' run defense suggests that he can. I don't think he's anywhere close to being a top 10 running back. He's closer to that top 15, like 15th overall.

He's a good number two fantasy running back and someone that I would run for the hills from in daily. Who? Joe Mixon. Yeah, so are you starting any other Bengals in this game? Uzama. Oh boy. Pittsburgh is just terrible against

tight ends. I think he's going to be easy to take away. After what happened last week where Yuzama led the team and targets catches yards and scored maybe he gets a garbage time touchdown I don't feel great about Yuzama and he did have a season high in yards

against the Steelers the first time it was only 54 yards I think he's had under 50 yards in 8 straight games i don't think he scored in the eight games prior to last week i'm just not i'm not ready to run into his arms and say save my fantasy season cj i don't think it's gonna i don't think it's a great start starting john ross would be smart or not smart not smart do. Do you need six fantasy points? Starting Jeff Driscoll would be smart or not smart? Genius. It would be not smart, but you know what is smart?

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And in their last three games, they have not allowed more than 68 rushing yards to a running back, McCaffrey, Phillip Lindsay, and Joe Mixon. So this used to be a pretty good matchup for running backs. I don't know if it's really getting better or if it's just a small sample size. But I think the running backs in this game are tough calls. Gus Edwards and Nick Chubb. Who do you like better? I like Chubb.

I like Edwards better. Yeah? Yeah, it's just what the Ravens do. They give him plenty of carries, and the matchup's a little easier for him than it is for Chubb. Yeah, but he doesn't catch the ball. If he doesn't score, you're getting six points.

Any format. That's true. Well, he could get 100 yards against this defense. How many times has he gotten 100 yards? Three. Three? Yeah. Like half of his games.

Half his games. And he's had 80 or more in four out of six. Right. File this guy under great opportunity for an average talent and he's making the most of it i think he's a number two running back and probably a very low end one in ppr are you digging into the depths of the waiver wire uh instead of instead of um yeah yeah i'm starting hill over him. Right, if Tevin Coleman's out, Hill is a start over him. I'd start Jeff Wilson over him.

I would start Damian Williams over him. Still. Yeah. Spencer Ware? No. No. And obviously not Jalen Samuels.

Robbie Anderson or Gus Edwards or Nick Chubb? Who's the best there? I'll still take Chubb I'll take Robbie Okay What else we got in this game? The quarterbacks Baker Mayfield's an easy sit

Okay, are there any Browns that you are excited about? Baker for 2019 Chubb What about the wide receivers? No I'm not excited about any Browns Like D.D. Westbrook over Jarvis Landry Yes

Yep Okay, no Mayfield And then Lamar Jackson Start or sit? Start I think he can be a top 12 guy. Going to take on the Browns without their best corner.

He runs a lot. Might get you some bonus yards via the arm. Their best corner will not make a difference in this game. For what Lamar Jackson does. Unless he's tackling Lamar Jackson. I actually forgot about David Ajoku. He is a start.

He's behind Herndon. He's behind Vance McDonald. This is not a good team, the Ravens, against tight ends, and Njoku had six for 69 on ten targets in the first meeting. He hasn't had more than six targets since week six, so I don't know he's getting to ten targets again. But, yeah, how come you guys have, like, McDonald and Herndon ahead of Njoku?

I've got Njoku ahead of him. I should have said all Browns out. I think it's a better spot for those other guys. Njoku I don't think is very consistent. I don't think he's going to score. Yeah. Okay. So Jackson over Tom Brady.

Phil Rivers or Lamar Jackson? I have Rivers higher. Jackson over Rivers. Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? I have Rivers-Syre. Jackson over Rivers. Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Josh Allen. Josh Allen. All right. We talked about Gus. I have it.

Allen, Rivers, Jackson. Talked about Chubb. Would you start Alshon Jeffrey or Nick Chubb? Chubb. Yeah. Okay. Would you start? I'm sick of a fringy wide receiver here.

I don't want to do Robbie Anderson again. Adam Thielen or Nick Chubb? Thielen. Thielen. Okay. Baltimore's DST is seventh for Jamie and second for Dave, fifth for Heath. The Browns have been sacked

only three times in their last six games. Isn't that weird? Baker's good at evading the pass rush, but this is a good pass rush. Mark Andrews, I don't think we have any interest, right? I mean, I know he called the touchdown. Yeah, okay. All right, we're done here.

No Ravens wide receivers. Indianapolis is at Tennessee. Your stat of the game. The Colts DST. Here's some hard-hitting fantasy analysis for you. In their last six games, they have had a good game, bad game, good game, bad game, good game, bad game. What does that mean for this week?

So they're ready to be counted on, you're saying? Based on the pattern. How about based on playing Blaine Gabbert? Well, yeah, that is somewhat of the issue here. If they play Blaine Gabbert, how much are you going to like the Colts DST? If they play Marcus Mariota, how much are you going to like the Colts DST? I'm kind of feeling like

I'm going to like them no matter what. I don't think Mariota plays, but if he does, he's probably not going to be at 100%. And I think they can get to him. This is probably one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL, just how effective this defense is.

Especially against the run. And this is the number two... Well, sorry. The Titans are the number two scoring defense in the NFL. I'm sticking to the Colts, though, because Derrick Henry is going to be pretty interesting. And the Colts, they... Yeah, the Colts. Where am I here?

Come on, Adam. 3.75 yards per carry to running backs. There have been eight running backs with 15 or more carries against the Colts. Eight running backs. Five of them scored more than 10 non-PPR fantasy points and more than 13 fantasy points in PPR. So five of them had good games. The three who didn't were Corey Clement, Bilal Powell, and Chris Irie.

So basically the point is you get 15 or more carries against the Colts, you're going to do well. You get 15 or more carries against most teams, you're going to do well. Question is, is Derrick Henry going to have a good game or is he going to have a great game because he's been on fire lately? Good game. I would say he has a throwback game to what he had before the 200-yard four-score matchup against Jacksonville.

He'll get you 50, 60 yards. He'll find the end zone. That's it, huh? 50, 60 yards? I really think that's it. I don't think he has a monster. Okay. Chubb, Edwards, Henry.

Who's the best? Henry. Still Henry. All right. Oh, Henry. Any other Titans you're interested in? No. Nope.

Then let's look at the Colts. Andrew Luck is a top four quarterback. Maybe Sunshine. Oh. What a great movie. I think we can all agree on that. Oh, I forgot to tell you guys, since you guys are such a big part of my life. I was driving yesterday.

I started listening to Bryan Adams. I thought about you. Shocking. One of our first real inside jokes. adams love for brian adams right right just great stuff great how many times have you seen him in concert two two times yeah new album coming out i heard though on sirius so are you gonna run to it uh okay marlon mack marlon mack is interesting you know he doesn't usually do that well in tough matchups he had 16 carries 61 yards and a touchdown and one catch for eight yards in the first meeting against the titans but is this a tough

matchup anymore with jerell casey out for tennessee it's definitely an easier matchup without jerell Casey there. And I would figure that he'd have along the lines of that type of performance, what he had against them the last time. I think he can score. I don't think the yardage will be incredible. I think it'll be good. I'd love to have a healthy Ryan Kelly.

Right. Right. That's the big factor. It has been for him. So, Henry or Mack? I've got Henry higher. Henry in non-PPR. Well, Mack catches like one pass a game. I know, but it's still one more than Henry. They're basically the same guy.

Okay. So Mack, yeah, I'd be a little nervous, but I think this – we don't know. We don't know what Tennessee's run defense is like without Casey. Like last year when the Broncos lost Dometop-Heckel for a couple games, it was a disaster. This year when the Giants lost Snacks Harrison, everything changed. This one great defensive tackle can really make a big difference. Sure.

But we don't know. I think there's a lot more there on the Tennessee defense to back him up. There is, but I still like Mack's chances of having an okay game. I would have Henry over Mack, and I'd start both over Mixon. Anyone else other than T.Y. Hilton on the Colts? I got a feeling about Chester Rogers if Eric Ebron ends up not playing, and we'll probably know more about Ebron's situation on Thursday yeah Ebron's gonna play most likely he was able to get through a

limited practice on Wednesday I saw he didn't practice on Wednesday that's what I saw too that he did not practice okay so if he if he ends up not playing that's going to be real nice for Chester Rogers in PPR leagues okay I mean it's kind of like a shot in the dark it's not a shot in the dark it is a shot you don't know it's gonna be him a shot in the dark. It's not a shot in the dark. It is a shot in the dark. You don't know it's going to be him. It could be Dontrell Inman. No, he's stepped up in the slot the last two weeks. His playing time has gone back up.

And every time, I could look up the stat for you if you wanted to, but I think it's three out of the four times he's had at least seven targets. He's been good for a minimum of, I want to say, 13 PPR points. Yeah, well, there's a common theme there. I'm pretty sure the three games you're referencing are last week without Eric Ebron and then the two games without T.Y. Hilton, or the three games without T.Y. Hilton, one where Hilton— Right, so if there's no Eric Ebron, the middle of the field opens up for him. I'm just preparing—

Tennessee just lost their slot corner for the year. I'm preparing, Dave, to debate you in the Google segment later. This is fine. Who are you going with over— Jameson Crowder. Okay, wow, to debate you in the Google segment later. This is fine. Who are you going with over? James and Crowder. Okay. Wow. What a debate.

Yeah. I think if you're somehow in need of a flex and a PPR, you can pick up Chester Rogers and use him. And I think he's a great cheap receiver in daily. All righty. Chargers at the Broncos. First meeting was in week 11. Denver won it 23-22. And Phillip Rivers.

Did we talk about Rivers yet? We did. We did? Okay. We've mentioned him. No, but we didn't talk about him at the top of the show, did we? No, we didn't. We didn't get in-depth.

We did Wilson and Watson, not Phillip Rivers. All right. Starters sit Phillip Rivers. I'm okay with him. I think he bounces back. We've seen him bounce back from zero touchdown games before with big games. Each of the last three times, he's thrown zero touchdowns, at least 300 yards, at least two touchdowns. He's had multiple touchdowns in six straight games at Denver.

That was also back when Denver's secondary was very good. He's had 20 or more fantasy points in five of those six games. Broncos have allowed 21 or more fantasy points to five of those six games. Broncos have allowed 21 or more fantasy points to five of the last eight quarterbacks they faced. The three who didn't get it were Jeff Driscoll, Baker Mayfield, who still had two touchdowns, and Derek Carr. I don't think Rivers plays a full game,

so just keep that in mind. I don't think he does either. I think he's a low-end number one quarterback. Right, right. Like you mentioned the 21 or more fantasy points. There's only been one quarterback that scored more than 25 fantasy points against Denver, and that was Patrick Mahomes, 34 fantasy points and six points. I mean, they're basically the same guy.

But they've pretty much faced only crap quarterbacks since losing Chris Harris, so we don't quite know what their past defense is like without their best corner. We did talk about Melvin Gordon, and would you start Melvin Gordon or Derek Henry or Marlon Mack? Melvin. Yep. Does Justin Jackson have any role, or is he a sit?

Not with Eckler coming back. Not with what? Not with Eckler coming back. True. Any Chargers wide receiver other than Keenan Allen? No. And Antonio Gates.

Jamie has him 19th. It's just a flyer. Denver running backs. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. My gut is like Royce Freeman's going to have 45 yards and a touchdown. What do you think?

I think that's very well within the realm of possibility. Yeah, I'm not excited about him. He's in on first and second down. Booker will be in on third downs and in the two-minute drill. When they're at the goal line, I think you'll see Freeman. Yeah, I think seven fantasy points should be considered the minimum.

Here are the four games in which he's had double digit carries and only one catch in those four games. You don't really have to adjust PPR versus non-PPR for Freeman. He's had 13, 6, 11, and 9. Oh, no, I was wrong.

He has had 6, 11, 9, and 2 fantasy points in non-PPR in four games with double-digit carries. I could have more. He's had 15, 13, 13, and 12 carries, so maybe he has 18 or something like that, but I don't know. We know it's a good matchup. And are you starting any Denver wide receivers? Hamilton and PPR for sure.

Hamilton and PPR is a nice one. I'm worried about Cortland Sutton going up against Casey Hayward. Right. Yeah, I'll tell you the wide receivers who have had double-digit fantasy points in non-PPR or 14 fantasy points in PPR against the Chargers. Tyreek Hill, three guys on the Rams, Jordy Nelson, Damian Ratley, Tajay Sharp, and Antonio Brown. So there haven't been that many, and there have been three that have been kind of crummy.

Nelson, Ratley, and Sharp. And the Chargers DST, we talked about them earlier, 14th for Jamie, 16th for Dave, and 7th for Heath. We've got three games left. We've got Jacksonville-Houston, Oakland-Kansas City, and Miami-Buffalo, and we're going to get to Jacksonville and Houston right after this. Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League.

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Alright, stat of the game for Jacksonville at Houston. Derek Henry is the only running back to rush for more than 61 yards against the Jaguars since Lamar Miller in Week 7. And in that stretch of games from Week 8 through 16, only three running backs have had more than 12 carries against the Jaguars, so that's part of it. But you guys mentioned earlier you don't really want to trust Lamar Miller.

Where do you come out on him right now? I don't want to trust him for a couple reasons. The matchup is one. Number two is that Houston's pretty comfortable using multiple backs, and now they've got two other guys that they could turn to to help Lamar Miller shoulder the load against this tough defense.

They've got Alfred Blue and Deontay Foreman's back. He scored on a touchdown catch last week. So is this going to be a three-headed monster? Is Lamar Miller only going to get 12 or 13 touches? I want to stay away. Are you going to start Brian Hill over Lamar Miller? I am, if Tevin Coleman's out. And for the record, Dan Quinn said that Tevin Coleman has a good chance to play.

Ah. Are you going to start Tevin Coleman over Lamar Miller if he plays? If he ends up playing, yes. He did not practice on Wednesday, though. How do you feel about Leonard Fournette compared to the Falcons running backs? I would start the solo Falcons running back over Fournette. I do not want to trust Leonard Fournette at all. Okay, but you do have him as a top 20 guy.

That's based on what Week 17 looks like. Right. Okay. We're obviously... Okay, well, actually, D.D. Westbrook is somewhat interesting here because Houston's secondary stinks and it's beat up. It is. So how about Chester Rogers versus D.D. Westbrook?

I think I'd go D.D. I just think that's a little bit better. There were three cornerbacks that got banged up for Houston last week. One of them, I don't think one of them is even on the injury report. The other two are Kareem Jackson and Jonathan Joseph. They're veterans. They were limited on Wednesday. I think there's a pretty good chance both play.

That'll make it a little harder on good old Didi. And by the way, let's... Oh, go ahead. Sorry. I was just going to say it's a better quarterback now for the receivers in Jacksonville. Cody Kessler just can't throw. Yeah. And Blake can.

Whether or not he's on target is a question, but at least he's willing to throw. And I wonder if Bortles kind of lets it rip a little bit this week now that there's no pressure. If he does, that's going to be good for the Texans. Yeah, that's true. It would be good for the Texans, but I think he'll connect with his receivers far more than what Kessler did.

But, you know, I just want to go back to Fournette. I just want to mention something on Fournette. The Texans have arguably the best run defense in the NFL. They do allow the fewest yards per carry to opposing running backs. It is really tough. You need him to score. He's not that involved in the passing game. He's not getting a ton of – he did have three catches last week,

but only 43 rushing guards against Miami. This is a big step up in competition. 3.2 yards per carry allowed at running backs for the Texans. I know he's going to be a number two running back for me. Currently, I'm 13th. That seems pretty aggressive. He'll be probably somewhere below the 15 mark. Okay.

We talked about Deshaun Watson At the beginning of the show Please tune into that right at the top of the show To hear about Deshaun Watson But he is a top seven quarterback And you can start him over Phillip Rivers and Russell Wilson Nick Foles, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson

And DeAndre Hopkins is a start I forgot to look up his history against Jalen Ramsey. I'm sure you guys have a clue on Hopkins. I will look it up for you. Okay. Here I am picking up the slack for Adam again. Yeah, I'm sorry.

This is the last game I previewed today. Adam forgets everything. Dave to the rescue. Well, earlier this year he had three catches for 50 yards and a touchdown at Jacksonville. He scored in three straight games against Jacksonville. He's going to get 100 targets this week. I'm going to take under on 100, but I'll take over on 35. I like DeAndre Carter as a sleeper this week, too.

PPR sleeper. Kiki Kute has been practicing. He practices on a limited basis every week. All right, Oakland's at Kansas City. Houston DST, start him. Except Dave has him ninth and Jamie has him fourth. Heath has him once or first, as most people say. Oakland at Kansas City, Houston DST, stardom. Except Dave has him ninth, Jamie has him fourth. Heath has him onth, or first, as most people say. Oakland and Kansas City here.

Two more games. Stat of the game. In their last four games, this is amazing. The Chiefs have allowed seven touchdowns to tight ends. Seven in four games. Plus, 63 yards to Tyler Higbee, yards to Antonio Gates and 100 yards to Jared Cook so Jared Cook starter set you should start him yep he's not healthy though right I know he was limited with a rib problem yeah he got hurt on the in night game. He did. And he's got

like 35 or fewer yards in four of his last six games or something like that. We've talked about Herndon, McDonald, the Joku. How would you rank Cook with them? I'd take Herndon over him, but then Cook next. Sounds about right.

Okie dokie. Start with the Raiders. Derek Carr, no. Doug Martin, Jalen Richard. Start or sit? Carr is interesting and daily. Yeah, he had a big game last time against the Chiefs. I think he's going to be really interesting.

Right. It's going to have to be pretty cold. Yep. No, thanks. Let's find out what the weather is going to be just for kicks. But Doug Martin is also interesting. Doug Martin got back to 21 carries last week. Had a great game against Denver, 107 yards and a touchdown.

Scored a touchdown against the Chiefs. Chiefs allowed the third most fantasy points to running backs. Five yards per carry to running backs. Starters hit Doug Martin. He's a good start. I like him, too. He's been getting a lot of work. He looks good.

This Chiefs run defense does not look good. This is his go get your money. What about Fournette versus Doug Martin? Oh, Martin. I think it's got to be Martin. He scored in four of his last five games. Martin. His rushing average has been above.

His last two games, the rushing average has been really good against Cincinnati and Denver. I would say that against Cincinnati. He had 39 yards on nine carries. That's like the only game in his last month without 16 or more carries. That and the game he got hurt in against the Ravens.

And in that Cincinnati game, he was missing both of his starting guards. He got one of them back against Denver. Yeah, so Martin has a good opportunity here. And in that Cincinnati game, he was missing both of his starting guards. He got one of them back against Denver. Yeah. So Martin, right, has a good opportunity here. Would you start Doug Martin or Tyler Lockett? Martin. Yeah, Martin.

Martin. Buffalo wide receiver or Doug? Well, no, you have Lockett ahead of the Buffalo guys. So, Brandon Cooks or Doug Martin? Martin. I'll take Martin if I'm PPR. Cooks in PPR. Don't you think we should have been playing the,

Damn, Gina! Like a lot this year? Sure. By the way, how about this gem for all of you fans in Kansas City? High of 46 on Sunday. Low of 31. So maybe it won't be super cold. And Jordy Nelson.

Jordy Nelson in his last four games has 7 to 11 targets in each game. Six or more catches. He's got 75 or more yards in 3 of his last 4 games, but he has not caught a touchdown. He has 2 red zone targets in those 4 games. 14 or more PPR points in 3 of them. Yeah, so he's like a

7 catch for 80 yard kind of guy. And his best game over that 4 game stretch was against the Chiefs. That's when he came alive. They remembered him. Like Frampton. He's going to be their number one receiver next year. How ugly is that? Who, Jordy? No, he

won't. Who are they going to sign? Who are they going to draft? They'll sign or draft somebody. You think? I think Martavis Bryant gets another shot there. Who? Martavis Bryant. No, I don't think he gets another shot in the NFL. I know, I know. It's just the fact that they traded for him.

You know what format you should start Jordy Nelson in? What? PPR. Yeah, like how much do you like him in PPR? I like him a lot. I think he's a top 24 receiver. He's a top 20 guy in PPR? I like him a lot. I think he's a top 24 receiver. He's a top 20 guy in PPR. Cool.

The funny thing is, the guys you have behind him aren't really big names. There's a lot of big names that are resting this week or they're hurt. Yeah. By the way, receiver is kind of a dumpster fire once you get past the top 20-ish

I forgot to say this but Odell Beckham has a chance to play, right? Is that the latest? Do you really think he's gonna? I don't know Probably not But Sterling Shepard or Jordy Nelson

Jordy in PPR I will take Shep in non-PPR. I might take Shep in both. Patrick Mahomes is number one for Jamie, number three for Dave, number one for Heath. We've talked a lot about the Kansas City running backs. We should start Jordy Nelson or Damian Williams, PPR. I'll go Damian. Okay.

Sit Spencer Ware. Start Tyreek Hill. Sit Chris Conley? Yeah. Okay, sit Spencer Ware, start Tyreek Hill, sit Chris Conley? Yeah. Okay. And Travis Kelsey's a start. And the Chiefs DST, 8th for Jamie, 13th for Dave. Jamie, what are you thinking here for the Chiefs DST at Mayth?

I think the Raiders had their big emotional win last week, and the Chiefs are playing for the one seed. They're going to beat up Derek Carr all day. They are going to get to the quarterback. They have the second most sacks in the NFL. But Dave, Derek Carr hasn't thrown a pick in 10 games. Oh, my God. I think you can do better than the Chiefs, DST.

They're good. They're not great. Miami at Buffalo, our final game. Stat of the game. I'm glad you saved this one for last, Adam. That's what I do. Your stat of the game is this. There have been 16, I think I gave this on Tuesday, there have been 16 wide receivers with 6 to 9 targets against the Dolphins.

That's typically what Zay Jones has been getting. It might be what Robert Foster gets. 16 wide receivers with 6 to 9 targets against the Dolphins. 10 of them have had either 80 yards or a touchdown. It's not bad. What do you think about this game? Is there anybody in this game? Let's do Josh Allen separately.

Other than Josh Allen, is there anybody in this game that you're excited about? No. I have mild excitement for Robert Foster and Zay Jones because of the matchup. What about LaShawn McCoy or Kenyon Drake? No. No excitement there. I'm excited about the Bills' DST, too. I think they step up.

We talked about them already, but I think they have a good game. Jamie, make the case for Josh Allen. His best game of his career came against the Dolphins with 32 fantasy points. He threw for over 230 yards. He ran for over 100 yards. I think you see this Dolphins defense is terrible. They don't want to be here in this game. They're just not good.

It's going to be the typical, let's go into the offseason on a high note For Buffalo I do think it's interesting though the reports of Adam Gates coming back I think he deserves to come back Personally It's one thing I want to look up When you consider the upside of Josh Allen

I mean the Dolphins I feel like sort of anecdotally, they have a history of being just terrible in Buffalo or in New England in a freezing cold game at the end of the season. A lot of times they take advantage of it when they have a home game at the end of the season, and these teams are coming from cold weather and going to this sweltering heat and humidity, and they're really good in those spots.

But there is a chance that the Bills, believe it or not, I think there's a chance the Bills crush the Dolphins. Yeah, they had that game two years ago when Ajayi went for 200 yards in Buffalo. Oh, that's right. Nearly, yeah. That was a weird one. Of course, they go to Buffalo late last year. They're the guys on the field for that final run.

Yeah, I mean... Weather's not supposed to be a big factor. But it's got to be cold. 34 degrees. It'll be interesting to see what the Dolphins do defensively with some of their guys. You have Cameron Wake, who's not 100%. If he plays, I think he said it's a free agency. Xavier Howard, if he plays,

that'll be more impactful for Robert Foster than Zay Jones. Allen's in a good spot. Yeah. And for what it's worth, the Dolphins lost 41-17 at Minnesota two weeks ago, and it was called outside.

So. I can tell you from experience, it's freezing in Minnesota. Yeah. Last year, they lost 29-13. Oh, last year, week 15, December 17th, they lost 24-16 at Buffalo.

Following the league, they lost 29-13 at Kansas City. But Buffalo was a playoff team then. Don't forget. Buffalo was so good. Last one. Oh, 2016. Yeah, that's the one you referenced. They won 34-31 in overtime at Buffalo.

Okie dokie. That's it for the Starter Set. Just want to read a few emails from our listeners. This is from C-Stock. Dear Dick, Joe, and Mike. Very vague. If there's a Dick for the Packers, those are two of their coaches. All right, Joe Philbin.

I need to start two running backs. Dick Lombardi. What is it? Dick Lombardi. Dick L All right, Joe Philbin. I need to start two running backs. What is it? Dick Lombardi. Dick Lombardi, that's right. He's a great coach. I need to start two running backs and one flex in PPR. James Conner, Christian McCaffrey,

Jamal Williams, Damian Williams, Derrick Henry, and CJ Henderson. I love when people are like, give me two running backs and a flex if the only positions are running backs. Connor, McCaffrey, Jamal Williams, Damian Williams, Derek Henry, CJ Anderson. Pick three. PPR.

If we're assuming Gurley's out, Anderson's got to be in there. Anderson. Connor's got to be in there. Anderson, Jamal Williams, and Damian Williams. No. Anderson, Jamal Williams, and James Connor. Right No, Anderson, Jamal Williams, and James Connery. Right, okay. This is an email from Leandro.

Dear Phillip, Melvin, Antonio, and Keenan. Those are chargers. That's easier. I'm in the finals in a 12-team non-PPR league. I'm so stacked at running back that I don't know who to start. So I have Saquon, both Steelers running backs, Jamal Williams, Chubb,

Dalvin Cook, C.J. Anderson, and Joe Mixon. So, how... Who'd you start? He needs three. Saquon, Connor, Jamal, Chubb, Cook, C.J. Anderson, Joe Mixon. The first three. Saquon, Connor, Jamal, Chubb, Cook, C.J. Anderson, Joe Mixon.

Saquon, Anderson. Oh, Anderson was in there? Yeah. Yeah, so it's got to be Saquon, Anderson, and Connor. And if Gurley plays, you go Jamal Williams. Yes. One more from Jason. I am in the championship game

Oh he says Hey Sam Shepard, Stan Lee, Alan Rickman And John Heard Hmm Well I know who Stan Lee and Alan Rickman are Sam Shepard Shouldn't I know who Sam Shepard is?

He's that actor with the mustache And the really good voice. Oh, they're Christmas characters, aren't they? Probably. Because I think the last guy was John Hurd. Is he the dad in Home Alone? Yes. What's Dan Lee do as a Christmas character?

Oh, I've got the wrong Sam for Sam Shepard. Who's Sam Shepard? He does have a mustache. Sam Shepard. Oh, you a mustache. Sam Shepard. Oh, you know what? No, I think these are deceased guys. Oh, that's sad. Deceased actors.

Sam Shepard. Yeah, I know this guy. I was thinking of Sam Elliott. Sam Elliott? Who's that? Look him up. You'll see his mustache. Our best moment. Okay, anyway.

Championship game. PPR. Two running backs. Damian Williams. Spencer Ware. Joe Mixon. CJ Anderson. Gus Edwards.

Elijah McGuire. Williams and Anderson. Damian Williams and Anderson. One wide receiver. Beckham. Corey Davis. Robbie Anderson. Sanu. Andien Williams Anderson. One wide receiver. Beckham, Corey Davis, Robbie Anderson, Sanu, and Mike Williams. Robbie. And a flex. So we

got Mixon, Gus Edwards, McGuire, and those crummy wide receivers. I'd go McGuire. I'd go Mixon. Thank you, Jason. Thank you for the very sad reading. Bummer. Happy Friday. No, it's Thursday. I go mix it thank you Jason thank you for the very sad reading bummer alright happy Friday

well happy Friday no it's Thursday happy Thursday everybody we'll talk to you on Friday you know what I'm excited about

what's that Wisconsin gotta go bye I hate you I hate you JB go Kays pinch drive ball all the way

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