Fantasy Football Today - 15 Sleepers, 15 Breakouts, 15 Busts! Also a lot of NFL News (08/30 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: August 31, 2020

What was the biggest news item of the weekend? It has to be Jalen Reagor's injury, right? What does this mean for Carson Wentz and the rest of the PHI offense? After that, we discuss how to handle wai...vers/free agency if one of your starters is ruled out with COVID (9:30) ... More news and notes (12:45)! Le'Veon Bell's draft stock isn't looking great right now. We also discuss Blake Jarwin, Yannick Ngakoue, Deebo Samuel and Kerryon Johnson ... We've got 15 sleepers (25:50), 15 breakouts (39:00) and 15 busts (50:00)! Players discussed include Jonnu Smith, Parris Campbell, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, D.K. Metcalf and so many more. And we reveal who is in the Podcast league (59:00) and play you off with a song from one of our listeners ... Email us at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com Bid on a spot in the 2020 Listeners' League (all proceeds to St. Jude): https://www.ebay.com/itm/373174782775 Listen to the brand new Fantasy Football Today in 5 podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-in-5/id1528634304 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow the new FFT Twitch channel: https://www.twitch.tv/FFToday Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.
Starting point is 00:01:16 Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Sunday night, 9, 10 p.m. Eastern, and somehow Heath Cummings is awake. And he's with us, and he's like, I think his wife went clothes shopping because he's been looking really, like,
Starting point is 00:01:36 trendy and cool lately. Another nice shirt. And Heath, glad you could join us here on Sunday night. Have you ever discussed, in a good or bad way what someone else on the podcast besides me was wearing or what type of look they were sporting? I'm just saying the last two shirts you've worn have been really excellent shirts.
Starting point is 00:01:59 Well, thank you. I appreciate the fact that you like them. I do. I do. Happy Sunday night to Heath. Dave and Jamie are here. You guys ready for a lot of sleepers, breakouts, and busts? Yeah. Come on, Dave.
Starting point is 00:02:12 You're always ready for that. No, not today. What's the matter? My guys hurt. Oh, Rager? Yeah. It's not that bad. Small tear. Small tear. Who even notices a small tear small tear who even notices
Starting point is 00:02:26 a small tear these days it's over no wow man can't draft him can't do it what you can't draft he might miss two weeks I mean look you could draft him but why well as we've been telling people add some IR spots and now
Starting point is 00:02:42 he's probably a short term IR candidate so if he gets put on that list, you can stash him. And then hopefully by the end of the season, he's playing well. Sucks. Might miss two weeks. All right. So I was going to ask you guys, what's the biggest news item of the weekend? Is it that?
Starting point is 00:02:54 When's the last time a dude wore a harness on his shoulder and was awesome at football? Did you hear how he hurt it? Yes. Tackling a defensive player after the second team quarterback through an interception? Yes. He's a gamer to the core. Also, the first team quarterback left with a mild soft tissue injury.
Starting point is 00:03:15 So Carson Wentz, a little hurt. I don't think we're panicking there. Miles Sanders, we know he's hurt. They've lost their left tackle. They've lost the... They're going to be that team. They're going to be the Chargers of the East. Okay. Giants may finish second.
Starting point is 00:03:28 No, stop. No. So, the Giants have been really snakebitten too. But, okay, so the Eagles. Defense doesn't count. They lost their left tackle. That counts. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:42 It's going to be benched anyway. No. But Giants' tackles were so bad in the scrimmage. Okay, anyway, you should know that for fantasy purposes. But for the Eagles, yeah, let's talk about Carson Wentz. Are we dropping Carson Wentz? So Jalen Rager, shoulder injury. He has a small tear.
Starting point is 00:04:00 He's out three to four weeks. Alshon Jeffrey's on pup, but making progress. So Deshaun Jackson, let's talk about his value. Let's talk about Carson Wentz. And Jamie, give me your reaction to the Jalen Rager entry. Yeah, I mean, it stinks. You know, you're, sorry, I got some volume issues. I was doing some background music.
Starting point is 00:04:21 It stinks. That's one of our lovely ads. Thank you, CBSSports.com. It stinks. He was a guy that has a big opportunity in front of him and hopefully still will, depending on how long he's out. We don't know when
Starting point is 00:04:39 Jeffrey's going to come back. Any setback for a rookie at this stage of the game is not good. And the fact that the left tackles out, the fact that the right guard is out, the fact that, you know, Alshon's not back and Miles Sanders is banged up. I think it's not encouraging. So, yeah, I mean, Wentz has to fall a few spots. And so I was drafting Wentz ahead of the elder statesman of Breeze, Brady and Ryan. And I think I would take the elder statesman ahead of them now. So those guys have
Starting point is 00:05:07 a higher ceiling. I say that I had a father-son draft with my eight-year-old son, Ronan, today. And we took Carson Wentz. We also took Matthew Stafford. So we're covered in that regard, at least I hope. But Wentz loses with all of these things
Starting point is 00:05:24 on top of the fact like you said Adams hurt Dave you agree are you taking Matt Ryan Tom Brady Drew Brees over Carson Wentz I was already taking them ahead of Wentz because I'm nervous about Wentz missing games and maybe even missing snaps after they drafted Jalen Hurts he's remaining at 12 for me a quarterback
Starting point is 00:05:40 I'm sure he'll have some really good games at some point in September. Week one, certainly against Washington, could be one of those games, but guys are, Eagles are falling. It's not fun. And yeah, he deserves to be 12th.
Starting point is 00:05:57 I can't say take Roethlisberger, take Daniel Jones, golf, Aaron Rodgers. Can't say that yet. I might take Cam over him. Okay. Heath? I will not take Cam over him or Roethlisberger. I'm still kind of struggling with it. I had him
Starting point is 00:06:15 higher than anybody else. I had him seventh ahead of Allen. When the offensive line happened, I made some changes to my projection for him, and he was still seventh. I've bumped him down just a little bit now, and he's down to eighth. I would take Ryan over him. You get to Brady, Breeze, probably not.
Starting point is 00:06:33 All in that same range. He's going to go after those guys. I don't need to take Carson Wentz before them. I was getting Carson Wentz in the 11th round of our drafts before this happened, so I presume he's going to be QB 15 or something now. He's got Washingtonhington the rams and the bengals to start the season and after that he's at san francisco at pittsburgh and versus baltimore yeah but he could have all of his receivers by then you know he could have he
Starting point is 00:06:56 should have rager by then yeah but he's gonna have about a second and a half to throw in those three games but you know you say that adam the way it. You say that he should have Rager by then. We have no idea. I mean, he may, again, he could be short-term IR if they're deciding that they're going to be cautious with him. The other receivers, remember,
Starting point is 00:07:13 they went through this last year with losing guys, and they like Greg Ward. We've heard that time and time again this offseason. They've been saying J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is having a big offseason. Deshaun is healthy now.
Starting point is 00:07:23 They didn't have Deshaun at the end of last year. So these are things that they could sort of maybe work through if they feel comfortable enough. I do think this gives a slight bump to maybe Dallas Goddard, you know, if Rager's not there, because that's another guy that should get a few more targets and some different opportunities. And Zach Ertz, you know, if you were concerned about him, this helps him as well. But, you know, you got to see what the running backs look like. I mean, we're hoping Miles Sanders is ready for week one, you know, week to week could be week two, week three, week four, who knows?
Starting point is 00:07:50 Yeah. I had I'm, I'm working on my sleepers breakouts and busts for this week. And I had Zach Ertz in the busts and he's going to be deleted before that goes out for publication. It's funny. Cause I led the story with the guys that have changed for me. And then my first version of sleepers, which was back in March, I think, I had Ertz there too,
Starting point is 00:08:09 expecting him to be still around three pick. And I said, you know, there's no way you can call him a bust now based on where he's going. I mean, you know, his ADP right now is fine. He may bump up a few spots, but I think you're right, Keith. You know, there's no reason to suggest
Starting point is 00:08:22 that he's going to fail, but I still take answers over him. Okay. So how about the Eagles wide receivers? Dave, how are you approaching this group? It's Deshaun in the double digit rounds, and that's it for now. Why not like a ninth
Starting point is 00:08:36 or eighth round pick on Deshaun? Why isn't he a top 100 player? I think I can find a better wide receiver there than Deshaun Jackson. There are still pitfalls with him too, especially now that he doesn't have speed on the other side of him. Okay. All right, then.
Starting point is 00:08:52 That's the biggest news item of the weekend. Other than, well, of the week, the biggest news item of the week is what's coming up on Wednesday. Let's say that. A six-hour fantasy football draft-a-thon, Wednesday, September 2nd, supporting St. Jude. Join us, join the FFT crew and industry experts from NFL Network, Yahoo, and more.
Starting point is 00:09:10 We're going to provide nonstop fantasy advice and analysis. Here's how the six hours break down. 6 to 8 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports HQ, 8 to midnight on Twitch. That's twitch.com slash FFtoday. There are also eBay auctions including a spot in the listeners league.
Starting point is 00:09:27 The link is in the episode description. eBay.com. I'm not even going to give this out. Just check it out in the episode description. And,
Starting point is 00:09:36 so that's coming up on Wednesday, okay? 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. on HQ. 8 p.m. to midnight Eastern time on Twitch. We're going to have so much fun.
Starting point is 00:09:44 I created a brand new game this afternoon that everybody's going to love. Of course, Jamie told me about it, so it's really his idea. But, you know, I put it on paper, so I'm going to take credit for it. And we're going to have a lot of fun on Twitch and, of course, on HQ.
Starting point is 00:09:57 Now, the first episode of our new podcast drops tonight. Fantasy Football Today in 5 is out. That's coming out. It's going to be Monday morning, like 3 or 4 or 5 in the morning, something coming out. It's going to be Monday morning, like 3 or 4 or 5 in the morning, something like that. Get you caught up with the news of the day in just five minutes. Download and subscribe to Fantasy Football Today in 5
Starting point is 00:10:13 on Spotify, on Apple Podcasts, on Stitcher, Smart Speakers, or wherever you listen to podcasts. By the way, I'm going to put that first episode in this feed. That will be the only one I put in this feed. I'm not going to put the other ones in this feed, but just in case you want to hear it, the first episode will be in this feed. That will be the only one I put in this feed. I'm not going to put the other ones in this feed, but just in case you want to hear it, the first episode will be in this feed.
Starting point is 00:10:29 You can listen to it, then go over to the other feed, Fantasy Football Today in 5, and subscribe. All right. I've got a COVID question because people are asking best ways to manage IR spots and all that. Does a fantasy manager have exclusive rights to the backup of a player on his or her fantasy team? You know what I'm saying?
Starting point is 00:10:55 Or do I need to clarify that? Who gets ruled out? You mean the backup is on waivers? Yeah, the backup's on waivers. The starter gets ruled out. Does that manager have exclusive rights or is it a free-for-all? Oh my gosh, Saquon Barkley's out.
Starting point is 00:11:07 We got to go pick up Wayne Gallman, something like that. It's a free-for-all. Okay. But what do you do about the quarterback situation? Do you change the rules for quarterbacks? I guess I'll amend what I said. If you have some sort of agreement ahead of time,
Starting point is 00:11:21 in the event that said player is placed on the covid reserve list however they're going to define inactive because of covid and you decide that if that player is the backup player is available then the player who the fantasy manager's impact automatically gets it so it's that player so it clearly is going to most likely be the quarterbacks available. Who's carrying the second quarterback on the team, you know, unless maybe James Winston or Taysom Hill or, you know, however it goes. So the quarterback should be there. Most cases, the tight end should be there. You know, I don't think a lot of people are carrying second tight ends aside from, you know, the Dallas Goddards of the world, but the running backs and the wide
Starting point is 00:12:00 receivers for the most part are probably going to be on, especially the running backs. You know, the one you gave the example of Wayne Gallman, I don't know how many people are running to get Wayne Gallman unless the matchup is just that completely fantastic. Look, there could certainly be a scenario where Christian McCaffrey... Frank Gore is available.
Starting point is 00:12:18 Mike Davis is available. He's going to be a top 30 running back. He's going to have to... I think if you have the agreement the arrangement of yes you get that player your league decides that ahead of time if that player is available in free agency then that's something you guys should decide as a league i would not personally do that unless you're talking about maybe the quarterback or the tight end i think a commissioner's got to do something this year if he or she hasn't done something already whether
Starting point is 00:12:45 it's if it's add a couple of extra roster spots so people can safeguard their top players that's one thing if it's this decision where you've got exclusive rights to a free agent if the starters ruled out that's another thing you can do a commissioner has to do something but once it's determined and when i say the commissioner say he doesn't have to act unilaterally. He can ask everybody else in the league. Once that's determined, that's it. So if you determine, all right, everybody gets three extra roster spots. If you want to spend it on sleepers, go ahead. Or if you want to spend it on backups for your star players, do that too.
Starting point is 00:13:18 However you want through your three spots. And then if you're stuck because Mark Ingram is on the reserve COVID list and somebody else has J.K. Dobbins and the only guy left on the waiver wire is Gus Edwards and, oh, somebody else just took him. That's it. You're stuck. That's your fault for not being prepared. That's up to the commissioner to decide. But a commissioner has to do something. All right. Today's show is actually a Sleepers Breakouts bus show. We're going to give you a ton of names. That's going to be mostly in the second half of the show. We're going to get you there with some news and notes along the way. Got some hay real quick, and I got some emails planned. Hopefully, we get. This was after Jerry Jones basically said the same thing.
Starting point is 00:14:10 So we talked about that on Friday's show. Ronald Jones hurt his foot, and Dave Richard was getting pretty upset about it, I think, on Twitter, ready to drop him. And now Ronald Jones is back in practice. Now drop him in your rankings, I mean. I mean, there was a chance. You had to think that there could be something wrong when you hear about a player's
Starting point is 00:14:26 foot wrapped in ice, but Bruce Arians said it wasn't a big deal, and it wasn't. He's back at practice, and he scored a one-yard touchdown in their scrimmage on Friday, which was cool.
Starting point is 00:14:37 And LeSean McCoy had a fumble that forced the entire offense to run laps. A LeSean McCoy fumble. Never have I ever. And LeSean McCoy also scored a touchdown on a two-point conversion. They both apparently were in there in short yardage.
Starting point is 00:14:51 It's been an interesting few days for Le'Veon Bell and the New York Jets. Le'Veon Bell is reportedly not looking good at camp. They traded for Kalen Balazs. That trade has been voided because of an injury. And LaMichael Pirine, a rookie out of some crappy school, he was...
Starting point is 00:15:09 No, just kidding. It's a great school. We love University of Florida. It's great. He got hurt. So he might have suffered a serious injury. I think it was an ankle injury. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:19 Okay. I think he got carded. He did. So that stinks. I just took Ronald Jones over Le'Veon Bell in a mock draft
Starting point is 00:15:28 half PPR. You should have. I would have done it in a real draft too. No. How are we feeling about Le'Veon Bell? I got him
Starting point is 00:15:37 after you passed on him. Oh. In round six. Cool. And it felt gross but at least it's round six. I just took Le'Veon Bell on round six of a mock draft.
Starting point is 00:15:47 Yeah. That's what I'm doing with you guys. Which one? The half PPR. I thought I took him. I guess I didn't take him. You know what? I took AJ green.
Starting point is 00:15:56 Nevermind. I didn't take him. I let some other sucker take that guy who wants Le'Veon Bell on their team. Good gracious. Well, Heath. So I had three running backs on the board when I needed one. It was Le'Veon Bell, Ronald Jones, and Mark Ingram.
Starting point is 00:16:11 I went with Ronald Jones. What would you have done? I probably would have taken Ronald Jones, too. Like, I have Le'Veon Bell. No, I don't. I've got Bell ranked higher still and half PPR. Man, I just, I have two... Part of the reason for that is I've drafted Le'Veon Bell too much
Starting point is 00:16:28 this year in the fourth round. Now I'm drafting the sixth round and all that means is more Le'Veon Bell, which I don't really want. What's going to have to happen in order for him to have a good season? Them to give him the football as many times as they did last year. That's it. Well, the P. Ryan injury
Starting point is 00:16:44 is significant here because that was another guy who could have taken snaps away from Bell. I don't think so. No? No. It's Frank Gore for the most part. Well, okay. All right. Fair enough. The Vikings acquired Yannick Ngakwe from the Jaguars. They gave up a second-round pick and a conditional pick that could
Starting point is 00:17:00 become a third. How significant is this move here for the Vikings gettingings getting in gawkway it makes me less certain about the vikings past volume increase that's what i would say like i they were a borderline fantasy defense probably not someone you were drafting as a starter because they didn't have a great week one matchup now i think they're probably a low-end starter as a fantasy defense now that prime belaga loss is has felt a little bit more that week one matchup. Hosting the Packers in week one.
Starting point is 00:17:31 Yep. Tough start to the season. Packers, Colts, Titans, Texans, Seahawks, Falcons by Packers. That's their first seven games. That's a tough start for the Vikings. The Chargers, this is a significant injury. Derwin James, one of the best safeties in football. IDP star, hurt his knee.
Starting point is 00:17:48 He's going to miss significant time, according to Ian Rappaport. First game of the year is at Cincinnati for the Chargers, then the Chiefs after that. So tough one there, Derwin James. Kerryon Johnson likely to start. Should Kerryon Johnson be moving up at this point? Because DeAndre Swift's still out.
Starting point is 00:18:05 Absolutely. Yeah, so what are we thinking about? This is a sleeper show, after all. should carry on Johnson be moving up at this point? Cause Deandre Swift's still out. And yeah. So what are we thinking about? This is a sleeper show after all is carry on Johnson, a sleeper now. I, I don't know if he falls in that category, but I guess based on where he's being drafted, probably yes.
Starting point is 00:18:17 As one of those mid round sleepers, you know, it's, it's, it's clearly a little bit more obvious now because that's why you're, you'd be saying it is, is Deandre Swift missing time, but that's what happens. So I think you look at it at as long as
Starting point is 00:18:29 i i always viewed it this way as long as carry on was healthy he was going to still be the touch leader he wasn't going to be the receptions leader in the backfield but i thought he was going to be the touch leader and then you're just waiting on the eventual injury which unfortunately tends to happen for him but look you know you know, DeAndre Swift had no off season. He had no preseason. And now he's missing over a week of training camp practice. He's clearly behind, you know? So the fact that they've been running Ty Johnson as the second guy by default,
Starting point is 00:18:55 you know, he's going to get an opportunity now to maybe be the second guy early in the season until Swift is up to speed. Now this could be Alvin Kamara where, you know, doesn't need a trade for it to happen, but you know, by week four, week five, he's clearly the second guy and hopefully putting up good numbers. I hope it's not the mile Sanders situation, but you take that, you know, if you get that type of guy by the end of the year. So, uh, I'm still going to take Swift over carry on, but now the gap is certainly much closer. Yeah. I started my sleepers column with like all it's how it's funny that we have maybe five or six
Starting point is 00:19:27 week one starting running backs available after pick 90 according to ADP and carry on. It's obviously the guy you'd get most excited about out of that group bears in week one Packers Cardinals. Those could be great matchups for him in weeks two and three. Okay,
Starting point is 00:19:44 so would you take carry on Johnson or DeAndre Swift? Who would you take first? I'm still taking Swift first as the long-term play. Okay. Karrion, I would hate to get both, but maybe it works out that way if you get Swift in round six or seven and you get Karrion in round eight or nine. It's funny.
Starting point is 00:20:02 I had to in this father-son draft I did today. So they asked me to grade the teams at the end. And the guy who picked first who had McCaffrey, he got Tyree kill in round two and George kill in round three. So it was a very favorable start for him. But his second running back is the Swift carry on combination. And he was explaining to his son after he took Swift, he's like, carry on still there.
Starting point is 00:20:23 You know, we get the Lions backfield locked up. So I was sitting next to him while he was explaining that to him. When I was recapping the draft, I said, you're teaching your child about handcuffing the Lions backfield. You get a letter downgrade for that pick, that duo alone. D for Detroit.
Starting point is 00:20:37 Deebo Samuel, looking good, running hard at practice. Brandon Ayuk has a hamstring injury. Deebo Samuel, is he a top 100 pick for you? No. If he's getting close to healthy, he'll be certainly probably 20 spots higher for me. Debo or Deshaun Jackson?
Starting point is 00:20:56 That's a good one. I think it's almost like how you would draft Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack. I think Debo is the Jonathan Taylor play. You want him hopefully playing at his best by the middle to the end of the season because you're not drafting either one as a starter. So if you need somebody for the early part of the year, you draft
Starting point is 00:21:12 Sean. They're literally back-to-back in my rankings, Jackson ahead of Debo. I mean, I feel like is Jackson a starter in week one against Washington? Last year against Washington in week one, he had like 150 yards and two touchdowns. Great opportunity for him. Okay. Clyde Edwards-Elair Heath, is he struggling in pass protection?
Starting point is 00:21:31 No, I don't think so. There was a thing where Eric Bien-Ami was asked how he's developing, and he, I guess, answered that he understands if you don't do that well, then you're not going to play. And it kind of read the quote kind of read like he's not doing it well, so he's not going to play, but there's some mystery surrounding that. So I think he's okay. I don't think it's that big a deal.
Starting point is 00:21:53 Darrell Williams will be Edward Ziller's backup. According to the athletic Drew Brees is predicting a breakout from Trey Trey Kwan Smith is Trey Kwan Smith worth drafting in a 12 team league. No, I yet Matt Nagy won't name a starting quarterback Checkout from Traquan Smith. Is Traquan Smith worth drafting in a 12-team league? No. Not yet.
Starting point is 00:22:09 Matt Nagy won't name a starting quarterback until the season opener. Is a Bears quarterback worth drafting in a 30-team league? Super flex. Tom Brady likes wide receiver Scotty Miller. Excuse me. Adam Azer likes water, but doesn't have any. Oh, there it is. Is there any fantasy impact of that?
Starting point is 00:22:29 Like, could that take away from Godwin, Evans, etc.? It could make Miller something. Maybe it's like a bi-week guy. We don't know how much playing time he'll actually get, but he's throwing a little bit of a wrench into everybody in the passing game for it. It's just so weird because the, the,
Starting point is 00:22:47 all the talk of the 12 personnel, you know, with, you know, playing two tight ends, they can't play three receivers and two tight ends. So, you know,
Starting point is 00:22:54 I don't know where he's going to slot in. If, if OJ Howard's doing all this great work and, you know, I guess maybe it goes back to the talk of Gronk and, and the struggles that he had, is he going to be an every down player? Because if he's not an every down player and OJ Howard's the primary tight
Starting point is 00:23:08 end, that doesn't mean he's the better fantasy tight end. But if OJ Howard's the primary tight end, then they do get Scott Miller on the field and Gronk comes in and some sub packages. Wide receiver, Brian Edwards for the Raiders. He's been starting getting some, some love out there. Is he worth drafting in a 12 team league? No.
Starting point is 00:23:25 Late round flyer. Yeah, I know. I agree with Jamie. I 12-team league? No. Late-round flyer? No, I agree with Jamie. I think he's a late-round guy. Would you take Brian Edwards or Henry Ruggs? Oh, Ruggs. Okay. And last news item, Ben Schrager has never had a Ritz Handy Snack. You know, the ones with the red sticks
Starting point is 00:23:42 that they don't make anymore, the red sticks. Oh, man, I love those. Yeah, everybody did because they had the stick. Do you like those, Heath? Heath doesn't like anything. It's not really my style of food. There we go. I'm not alone. I have no idea what they are.
Starting point is 00:23:58 They look gross. There's no chance that Ben Schragger's eating that. He's going to actually read the ingredients. He's out. Heath doesn't have time for a red plastic knife stick. It's probably true. Yeah. The stick was very fun,
Starting point is 00:24:12 but apparently they're more eco-friendly now, so no stick anymore, which is really the only reason to have it. But Ben Schrager is a big fan. It's definitely not the cheese. Yeah, very processed. Schrager loves Dunkaroos, so kudos to you, Ben.
Starting point is 00:24:27 Vanilla or chocolate? Vanilla. No! Chocolate is the answer. Alright. Hey, real quick. That was the first hey, real quick, by the way. Dunkaroos icing. Hey. What? Hey, real quick. What's up?
Starting point is 00:24:40 Sleepers breakouts and busts. What do you mean? I was just teasing you. Why? Because we're not getting to them? Yes. He hasn't been on a Sunday night show in a while. Adam's got to get warmed up. Hour number two will be
Starting point is 00:24:55 sleepers, breakouts, and busts. Hey, real quick. Tyler Boyd or Michael Gallup? I'll take Boyd and PPR. Yeah, same. Gallup, non-PPR. Boyd, PPR yeah same Gallup non PPR Boyd PPR Josh Allen or Matt Ryan Ryan Allen Patrick Wilhelms or Kenny Galladay
Starting point is 00:25:14 Galladay in a one quarterback league oh really Jamie who are you taking it at two quarterbacks answering the question. Sorry. Wait. Galladay, Galladay, Heath? Who do you say?
Starting point is 00:25:30 I did not hear who you were asking about. Mahomes or Galladay? Galladay. Okay. Sorry. Evan Ingram or Devin Singletary? Ingram. Ingram.
Starting point is 00:25:40 Singletary is falling fast. Yeah, I'd say Ingram. I want to come up with one more. Schrager, give me one more. One more hey real quick. Michael Gallup or Kareem Hunt? Gallup. Dude, that's pretty bad to use
Starting point is 00:25:56 Michael Gallup again. That's really bad. I couldn't come up with another wide receiver. There's not that many out there. All right, guys. Le'Veon Bell or Frank Gore? I've got a Facebook poll that everybody needs to know about. The question was if one member of the FFT crew could be your dad, who would you choose?
Starting point is 00:26:18 I'll tell you all about that, plus who made the Podcast League and play a great song by one of our Podcast League members, actually for the People League members, later on in the show. I thought we'd get to that a little earlier, but Heath is right. We need to get to sleepers, breakouts, and busts, so let's do it. Let's start with sleepers. I want five from each of you.
Starting point is 00:26:32 I want a quick explanation when you would take them in your drafts and who you would take them ahead of. Are you ready for that task, Dave Richards? Set the example for everybody. Yeah, I'm not ready for that task. I'm totally ready. All right, Heath. Go for it, Heath.
Starting point is 00:26:47 You can go first. You always want to go first in these things. You never want to wait until the end. Why? Because you have to just say your guys and then you can't repeat somebody else's guys. Okay. Gardner Minshew. Nobody's repeating him. Don't worry.
Starting point is 00:27:03 Pete Frisco might. Jay Green might. I like him. Don't worry. Pete Frisco might. Jake Green might. I like him. Wait, you should, before Heath goes on. So we did like a fireside chat with Pete on Thursday, I think it was. And Pete was talking, I was asking Pete like about the conversation he's had. And he was talking up Gardner Minshew and Heath was on the side of the set. I've never seen a smile so big when Pete, of all people, talking up Gardner Minshew.
Starting point is 00:27:31 And then the conversation continued afterwards, and Heath just couldn't stop smiling. That's good. It's his guy, man. All right, so Gardner Minshew, why and when would you take him? I mean, we've talked about it a bunch. 600 pass attempts. They are so high on Levitsky-Chanult. He may have two excellent weapons in the passing game instead of just DJ Chark.
Starting point is 00:27:47 And he was a borderline number one last year. So I don't know why he wouldn't be this year. And who would you take him over? Give me two quarterbacks. Daniel Jones and Jared Goff. All right, Gardner Minshew's number one. And who's number two for you? Number two will be James White.
Starting point is 00:28:03 Oh, very interesting. Yeah, kind of in that same carry on johnson range of the draft i think he's the end of round nine actually by cbs adp and i think like yeah cam doesn't have a long history of throwing to his running backs but when he had a really good pass catching running back he threw it to him a ton there's been mixed reviews about almost all of the new england wide receivers and except for julian edelman who just hasn't been there at practice most days. So White could just see a ton of targets again. And give me two players you'd take him ahead of.
Starting point is 00:28:31 In full PPR, I will take him... Man. You want me to say names? Jordan Howard? James White. Kerryon Johnson. And David Montgomery. Jordan Howard and David Montgomery. Okay. All right. There we go. Gardner Minshew, James White carry on Johnson and David Montgomery Jordan Howard and David Montgomery okay all right there we go
Starting point is 00:28:47 Gardner Minshew James White and man this is really hard I didn't tell anybody this before the like on air but I'm doing an auction and a draft while I'm doing a podcast a salary cap and a draft which is even more difficult if you can believe that Jamison Crowder more syllables Jamison like you can believe that. Jamison Crowder. More syllables.
Starting point is 00:29:06 Jamison Crowder. There are some sites where Jamison Crowder is like a 12th or 13th round pick. And he was a top 20 wide receiver when Sam Darnold was on the field last year. And that was with Robbie Anderson on the team. All the guys that they went out and got to replace Robbie Anderson have been hurt through training camp. No wide receivers are practicing with Sam Darnold except for Jameson Crowder.
Starting point is 00:29:26 He might get 150 targets. And if Sam Darnold actually improves as a quarterback, I think we all think is somewhat possible, he could be a top 15 guy at BPR. Would you take any rookies over him or would you take Crowder over all of the rookies? I would take him over all of the rookies. All right, that's three.
Starting point is 00:29:45 Minshew, White, Crowder. I'll cheat and say Loviska-Schnolt. I think the name that Pete said was Andre Johnson. That's right. That they were comparing him to. That's not Pete who's comparing him to that. That's their receiver coach, Keenan McArdle. They're comparing him to.
Starting point is 00:30:01 I would take him before Brandon Ayuk and Jalen Rager. Gardner Minshew. James White. Brandon Ayuk and Jalen Rager. Gardner Minshew. James White. Jameson Crowley. With Rager. Leviska Chenault. And give me another Jaguar. Chris Thompson.
Starting point is 00:30:15 I do not have any more. I will give you... Are we on three or four? We're on five now. You're on five here. This is number five. I'm going to go with John O. Smith. You've talked about what his numbers were
Starting point is 00:30:26 when Ryan Tannehill threw the ball last year. And the thing that we talked about, he was on a 500-yard, five-touchdown pace with Tannehill, counting the games where he didn't throw the ball hardly at all. And we expect a 15% increase in pass attempts for Tannehill, and they haven't added anyone else to really take those targets. So I think there's 700-yard upside, and it'll just depend on the touchdown he scores.
Starting point is 00:30:48 He might be the number two target in this offense. Yeah, so he played 10 games with Tannehill, basically, and in six of those 10 games, Tannehill threw 27 or more passes. So six times in 10 years, 27 or more passes. He had 60 or more yards four times in those six games. He had all three of his touchdown catches. He was on pace for 832 yards and eight touchdowns when Tannehill threw 27 or more passes in six games.
Starting point is 00:31:14 I know it's a bit of a wonky Yezer stat, but it does show you that when they threw, he got a lot of targets and he produced. All right, so Gardner, Minshew, James White, Jamison Crowder, LaVisca Shumnault, and John O'Smith for Heath. Dave, how you doing over there? I'm ready to rock if you are. Give me five.
Starting point is 00:31:33 First one is Austin Hooper, who some people might say isn't a sleeper because everybody knows who he is, but his ADP is right around 10. And I think he's going to catch a bunch of touchdowns in Cleveland. I've got him ranked ahead of Fant, Kosicki, and Rob Gronkowski. I think he's going to have a pretty good year. And we're all sleeping on Austin Hooper just because he went to the Browns. Okay. Very good. Very good. Good execution.
Starting point is 00:31:56 Paris Campbell's the next one on the list. I think he's probably more of a PPR-only type of a sleeper, but I see this Indianapolis offense being very spread out and him playing out of the slot. We've seen Phillip Rivers lean on slot receivers. Keenan Allen got a ton of targets. I know that TY is going to be the main guy. I think this is the second best guy.
Starting point is 00:32:16 The Trey Burton injury helps him out a lot. He's in the concussion protocol because of a car accident. This guy is pretty unlucky, all things considered, but it sounds like he's going to be fine. Frank Reich talked him up on a serious XM NFL radio, said he had a phenomenal off season and is anticipating him contributing this year.
Starting point is 00:32:33 Late round stash, a wide receiver. All right. But Deshaun Jackson or Paris Campbell. Deshaun, but it's close. I've got them ranked like this. Deshaun Debo,
Starting point is 00:32:43 Golden Tate, Paris Campbell. Okay. All right, Golden Tate, Paris Campbell. Okay. All right, Austin Hooper, Paris Campbell. Who else? Jarek McKinnon. 49ers held onto him for a long time. There's got to be a reason for it at this point.
Starting point is 00:32:53 Again, another PPR-only type of a sleeper. But I'm starting to buy into Raheem Mostert more and more. I'm just thinking about the Shanahan's, how their track record is with unheralded running backs, turning them into stars. He's a great fit for that offense. The O-line is pretty good, even despite injuries that they have to center in training camp. And Mostert will be the lead guy.
Starting point is 00:33:14 Tevin Coleman's the one who I think is in jeopardy because Mostert can be good. And McKinnon is a great pass catcher on passing downs. All right. We got Austin Hooper, Paris Campbell, and Jarek McKinnon. Give me two more. I've said it before. I'll say it again. Packers didn't draft A.J. Dillon to sit there and watch Aaron Jones have another huge year. There's got to be things they love about him.
Starting point is 00:33:33 Based on what you've seen on social media, the dude's got power for days. Those legs are incredible. He's going to factor in. I don't know if he'll just be a pain in the butt for people that start Aaron Jones each week, but he's going to be a factor for them. It could be just short yardage situations. Could be as the second running back in a rotation. I think he's going to matter at some point this year.
Starting point is 00:33:55 Who would you take him over? Would you take him over? I forgot to mention Bryce Love. Some speculation. He might not even make the roster. Would you take A.J. Dillon or Bryce Love? A.J. Dillon easily. I'll take him over. It's not going to be sexy names. I AJ Dillon or Bryce Love? AJ Dillon easily. I'll take him over.
Starting point is 00:34:05 It's not going to be sexy names. I'm going to take AJ Dillon over, but Malcolm Brown, who I think could fizzle pretty quickly with the Rams, Adrian Peterson, maybe the same thing with Washington. I've got him one spot ahead of Sony Michelle and PPR. Okay.
Starting point is 00:34:19 Last sleeper. Last sleepers, Jared Goff. You can have your Minshew Heath, but Jared Goff's got this amazing receiving core might even be getting deeper with Van Jefferson leaving dudes in the dust with his route running questions about the run game offensive lines definitely going to be the biggest
Starting point is 00:34:34 hindrance for Jared Goff but this is a team that could throw plenty and Goff has a lot of great targets to throw to I think he's an awesome value late on draft day and you take him ahead of I would take him out of Cam Newton. Okay. Austin Hooper, Paris Campbell,
Starting point is 00:34:48 Jarek McKinnon, A.J. Dillon, and Jared Goff. Jamie, feel confident you can knock this out? Sure. Let's do it. Five sleepers. I'll go with my guy, Josh Kelly. You know, I like the fact that the reports have been glowing this offseason,
Starting point is 00:35:02 and I think he's going to be better than Justin Jackson or Josh Jackson, as I keep saying. But there's 200 touches available with Melvin Gordon gone that Austin Eckler will clearly help take some of that. But I think Kelly's got a chance for 150-plus targets and a guy that you can get extremely late. So yeah, I'm excited about him. All right, Josh Kelly. Who else?
Starting point is 00:35:23 Josh Kelly would be one. I'll just keep giving my guys. Steve Sims. I mean, you've heard me say it from the start of the offseason, the way they closed last year, the fact that this receiving core needs some desperate help, and he's just continued to get rave reviews. So he's going to play inside.
Starting point is 00:35:36 I think he'll play a little outside as well. They'll be creative in how they put the ball in his hands. But Sims is going to be the second-best pass catcher for the Washington football team behind Terry McCormick. Okay, let's keep comparing him to Deshaun Jackson. Sims or Jackson? I'll take Sims, you know, based on health and based on his role. Sims or Paris Campbell?
Starting point is 00:35:53 Sims. Dave, Sims or Paris Campbell? Campbell. Jamie, three more sleepers. I'll give you two tight ends. Again, two guys that I've been talking about a lot. Chris Herndon for the Jets. He kind of summed it up with Jameson Crowder,
Starting point is 00:36:05 but Herndon's a guy that's going to be needed in that offense with the receiving core falling apart. And for what it's worth, Gase loves him, but Sam Darnold loves him. And I heard a tip from a friend of a friend who has somebody that they know on the Jets roster that they like him a lot, and he is just matching up with anybody that is lined up across from him, and he is dominating them in practice. So I'm sad that we didn't get to see Chris Herndon last year,
Starting point is 00:36:29 but I think that's going to lead to him having a big third season after what he showed us in his rookie campaign. You want a fun fact on Herndon? Sure. Half of his targets in 2018 were him running out of the slot. So not a traditional tight end, way more receiver than blocker. There's a lot to like about Chris Harden, even though he's a jet.
Starting point is 00:36:50 They've been, they've been splitting him out wide too, you know, so it's not just, you know, in, in line or in the slot, they've been using him in some wide receiver formation.
Starting point is 00:36:58 He might be their number two wide receiver. He might be. He could be. And the Gase hasn't developed a great tight end in several years. So I don't know if that, I think that might just be circumstantial more than anything else. Well, he's got a good opportunity. He hasn't developed anything.
Starting point is 00:37:14 He's a slot receiver. He's developed some incredible means. He can do some slot receiver numbers. Yeah, I guess so. Jarvis Landry, Jamison Crowder, that's it though. Okay. All right, Jamie, who was the other tight end? You said at the top of the show, Blake Jarwin.
Starting point is 00:37:28 I mean, I can't say enough good things about my buddy, Blake. Again, I think you look at what the target share is. There's 166 targets available between Cobb and Witten being gone. But just look at the 83 targets that Witten left. If you get 80-plus targets, that puts you in the conversation, as I told you, Adam, puts you in the room where it happens. So, you know, he has a chance to be in that 80-target range after having 41 targets himself last year.
Starting point is 00:37:55 So 11 of the top 13 tight ends in fantasy and PPR last year had 80-plus targets, and I think he's going to be 80-plus targets. So, again, he has a chance to be a top 12, top 10 type of guy. And the reports just continue to be glowing. All right. I have six career touchdowns have come against the Giants. Jarwin or Herndon? You know, I have them both in my top 12.
Starting point is 00:38:20 Right now, Herndon is 11. Jarwin is 12. But I would take both over Hooper and Gronk if you're looking for big names. Okay. And your last sleeper? My last sleeper, he's a little bit more of a little higher up on the depth chart, I guess, or the rank list. But Anthony Miller, another guy that you've heard me say a lot of things about.
Starting point is 00:38:42 Third-year wide receiver. Big opportunity. Fact that he's finally cleared with that shoulder injury for full contact is a great sign. I spoke to Adam Johns of The Athletic, who covers the Bears, and he said that Miller is going to have an opportunity to play a big role. One thing he referenced, unsolicited, which I like because it's something I reference a lot too,
Starting point is 00:38:59 is when Taylor Gabriel went down. You saw his numbers pop. The one thing Adam said was he seemed to have a reluctance early in his career, his first year and a half to play inside. And now he's going to be inside because of Robinson and Ted Ginn and the tight ends. He said they're going to play a lot of two tight end set with Cole Komet and Jimmy Graham. But the fact that he was able to make some plays inside, going to give him an opportunity to see an uptick in targets.
Starting point is 00:39:23 And whoever the quarterback is, I think is going to lean on Anthony Miller. All right. Jamie Sleepers or Josh Kelly, Stephen Sims, Chris Herndon, Blake Jarwin, and Anthony Miller. We're going to take a quick break. Breakouts and busts and Podcast League participants and songs when we come back. Miller Lite.
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Starting point is 00:40:35 All right, Jamie, you get to start here. Your five breakouts, please. Give me all the Josh Jacobs in every format possible. 60-catch Josh Jacobs is going to bust out in his sophomore campaign and perform even better than he did in his rookie season. All right. So where are you taking him? I'm taking the first round regardless of format.
Starting point is 00:40:54 So he's number seven at the running back position for me in non PPR. And he is a pick 10 through 12, depending on how the first round goes in PPR. So I'm taking him over Derek Henry in every format. Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs? Miles Sanders in PPR, Josh Jacobs in non-PPR. Okay. Really close now in PPR between those two. It certainly is, but the receiver injuries are going to help Miles Sanders if he's healthy.
Starting point is 00:41:19 All right, Jamie, number two? Number two would be DJ Chark. So he had a good second year in the NFL, as we saw. I think he's going to be better in his sophomore campaign to continue the, I mean, his third season, to continue the Jaguars' love here. You know, while Andre Johnson-Light might be on the other side, DJ Chark's going to lead this team in targets and have a huge season. This defense is going to be bad after losing in Gawkway.
Starting point is 00:41:45 You know, this is going to be – it's funny because I think Gardner Mitch is going to end up having a good season fantasy-wise as he steps out the door when Trevor Lawrence walks in to replace him in the 2021 campaign. But, you know, he's going to lean on his best receiver, and Chark clearly showed that last year. All right. Well, going to have to get – going to have to be worse than the Giants. Okay, so DJ Chark or DK Metcalf? Oh, DJ Chark. All right. Well, going to have to get going to be worse than the Giants. OK, so DJ Chark or DK Metcalf?
Starting point is 00:42:07 Oh, DJ Chark. All right. Josh Jacobs, DJ Chark. Three more. Will Fuller. Let's bleep in. Go. League winner. If he plays 16 games with the targets that are available in this offense and how Deshaun Watson, who's another breakout candidate for me, I think he's going to be NFL nfl mvp if will fuller stays healthy uh i think it's going to be fantastic year for will fuller uh if he can stay on the film marquis brown will fuller back to back i think both guys are very similar but the one is you know 140 pounds and uh plays in a very run heavy offense okay um will fuller or tyler boyd will fuller so we got jacobs charke fuller
Starting point is 00:42:48 two more marquis brown he's 140 pounds he's gonna be awesome in doing same type of guy i mean you know you're looking at a player that um is the number one option in his offense barring something crazy uh and by crazy i mean antonio brown maybe signing with the ravens but i think you look at what marise Brown showed you at the start of the season when he was averaging seven and a half targets per game, what he showed you in that playoff loss to the Titans. And when the three games the Ravens were trailing in, including that playoff loss, Lamar Jackson's attempts were clearly up and they're not going to be 14 and two again in the 2020 campaign. So I think Marquise Brown, if healthy and hopefully he's going to be 14 and two again in the 2020 campaign. So I think Marquis Brown, if healthy and, you know,
Starting point is 00:43:26 hopefully he's going to stay healthy. Those are two guys very easily comparable that if they play to what their upside is, they're going to help you win some leagues. Last breakout. Hayden Hurst. You know, what we see from this offense has been fantastic for the tight end position in the Matt Ryan campaign.
Starting point is 00:43:45 So he's been the quarterback there for 12 seasons and eight times he's had a tight end get at least 80 targets. So I think we're going to see Hayden Hurst step into an opportunity there to, again, be in the room. And when you're in the room, things happen. So I think it's a big opportunity for Hurst, who, as we know, two seasons for Austin Hooper. He's averaged 93 targets a game 73 catches a game uh i think that's an easy opportunity for her to step into and uh role for her step into and you look at uh what ryan said to us on cbs sports hq that despite playing with tony gonzalez and austin hooper he said he's never had an athletic tight end like this and so if this guy plays to what his draft
Starting point is 00:44:24 pedigree was as a first-round pick for the Ravens, by the way that they took him ahead of Lamar Jackson, Hayden Hurst has a big opportunity here, finally, as the featured tight end in his office. Two players are taking Hayden Hurst over. Oh, Gronk, Hooper,
Starting point is 00:44:40 Higby. I think he's got a higher ceiling than Higby, despite what Higby did last year. Okay, that's cool. Who goes at Higby despite what Higby did last year. Okay, that's cool. Works for me. Jamie's breakouts are Josh Jacobs, DJ Chark, Will Fuller, Marquise Brown, and Hayden Hurst. Dave Richard.
Starting point is 00:44:56 Who wants to hear me talk about Ronald Jones again? You mean the guy that you thought you took? Oh, no, no. Sorry. That was Le'Veon Bell. I had to make a really tough call between Melvin Gordon and Rojo. I knew you were going to take Rojo in that mock if I let him fall to you.
Starting point is 00:45:10 And I'm glad you took him because he deserved to go with the top 50 pick in that draft. And yeah, or top 60 pick rather. I think now that he's healthy, all systems are back on again for him. Round five pick for sure. Lead back in Tampa Bay. Physical, explosive.
Starting point is 00:45:27 Might even be decent catching the football. Might even be decent pass protecting for Tom Brady. Going to lead this team in touches. Going to work the short yardage goal line. He's going to be fantastic for the Bucs. Okay. Who's next? Austin Eckler, who is going to be the lead guy for the Chargers now.
Starting point is 00:45:45 They've paid him to be that guy. And we've seen a pretty steady trend here for the past couple of years where the Chargers give the second back anywhere between 8 to 13 touches. That used to be Eckler. He rarely has had 20 touches in a game, much less 15. Now here he is as the main guy for them. Won't catch as many passes as he did last year, but he'll still get you 65 plus. And I think double-digit touchdowns and certainly well
Starting point is 00:46:07 over 1,200 total yards. He's worth a first-round pick. Who are you taking Austin Eckler over? I am taking Austin Eckler over Derek Henry. I am taking Austin Eckler over Josh Jacobs. You're not taking him over Henry in non-PPR, are you?
Starting point is 00:46:23 No, not in non-PPR, but in full PPR, absolutely. Take him over Mixon in PPR, Miles Sanders. He's made the top 10 overall for me in full PPR. All right, we've got two players so far from Dave, Ronald Jones and Austin Eckler. Give me three more. I already mentioned my interest in Raheem Mostert. I think that he's someone else that you can start targeting
Starting point is 00:46:43 in that round five, six, maybe seven range if you get fortunate enough. He's more of a non-PPR guy. He just doesn't have the track record with receptions. And I don't think he's going to get the opportunity to catch a lot of passes so long as McKinnon's healthy. That might last a month or it could last longer than that. We'll see. The 49ers are definitely going to use two running backs on a regular basis,
Starting point is 00:47:03 but this is going to be their main one. He proved how good he was last year, and he's having another good camp now. Who would you take Raheem Mostert over? David Montgomery. I would take him over him, and that's even in PPR. I would take him over DeAndre Swift at this point. Singletary, some non-running backs. I would take him little Waller.
Starting point is 00:47:26 Did anybody get the text message I just sent, by the way? No. My phone's way over there. I don't have my phone. I did, but I haven't talked since then. My next breakout is DK Metcalf, who I think could be in line for double touchdowns as well. Seattle's offense should really hammer
Starting point is 00:47:41 the pass a little bit more than they have before. And I think Metcalf is just a fantastic talent. It's going to be hard for teams to double team him. Who would I take DK Metcalf over? Well, that's a great question, Adam. I'm glad you asked. I would take him over Odell Beckham. I would take him over Amari Cooper. I would take him over Marquise Brown. And last but not least, Jamie mentioned Chark. I won't mention him. I'll mention Tyler Boyd. Now Boyd's had some really good years already, but he's having a great camp. He managed to be the only Bengals wide receiver that stayed pretty much healthy this entire camp. Joe Burrow's looking for him quite
Starting point is 00:48:14 a bit. He looked for Justin Jefferson out of the slot. If AJ Green's healthy, that makes it all the better for Tyler Boyd, not because he's going to necessarily see a ton of targets with AJ Green, but because he'll be efficient on them just as he was in the first eight games of 2018. I could see him having 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. That's a great find in round six in PPR. All right, Dave's breakouts are Ronald Jones, Austin Eckler, Raheem Moster, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Boyd. I'm taking Boyd over Le'Veon Bell.
Starting point is 00:48:42 Okay. Heath, I need you to set an example here. Give me five breakouts. First off, can we play a game of guess the over-under of how many names Jamie or Dave said that I'm going to put as a breakout now after this time period of listening? Two and a half.
Starting point is 00:48:57 Three and a half? I'll take the over. No, I'll take the over. Did anyone say Kyler Murray? No. This might be the first fantasy football podcast someone's listened to all year. And I think that Kyler Murray should be talked about in our breakout show. I am below
Starting point is 00:49:11 where his ADP is on him, but I still expect he's going to have the best year of his career. He ran so much last year that gives him a great floor and almost all rookie quarterbacks improve as a passer. So you should expect Kyler Murray if you plays 16 games, to be a top five fantasy quarterback this year.
Starting point is 00:49:27 And he got DeAndre Hopkins. Uh-huh. Okay, give me four more. Nobody said DJ Moore either, right? No. As a 22-year-old, he went over 1,100 yards in 14 games catching passes from Kyle Allen. He's terrible. Teddy Bridgewater is going to be better.
Starting point is 00:49:45 DJ Moore, I would take ahead of DeAndre Hopkins and ahead of Chris Godwin. Okay. Next up, Calvin Ridley has a late fourth round ADP somehow. He was a top 10 wide receiver after Muhammad Sanu got traded last year. He's going to be a top 10 wide receiver this year. And that's if Julio Jones stays healthy and plays 16 games, he'll be top five, if not. Would you take Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore? I would take DJ Moore over Calvin Ridley. All right.
Starting point is 00:50:12 Would you take DeAndre Hopkins or Calvin Ridley? In non-PPR, I'll take Ridley. Okay, next up. Next up, we're going to go with Miles Sanders. Hey, all right. Miles Sanders is,
Starting point is 00:50:28 yeah, he's got a little boo-boo right now, but we expect he's going to be okay unless they're lying to us. And we all expect that he's going to earn a first-round value if he stays healthy and plays 16 games. Do you know what he did in his final seven games if you take out the game that Adam doesn't want to count?
Starting point is 00:50:40 The game he left with an injury? Yeah, he was awesome. You're absolutely right. All right. And one more breakout. And my final breakout will be Terry McLaurin. I think this is one that I've gone back and forth on through the summer, but I've got
Starting point is 00:50:58 him right now as a top 15 wide receiver. I think there's a real chance with their receiving core and that offense they're going to run, which is the offense that DJ Moore exploded in his second year last year. There's a chance he might see 130 targets and he was very efficient on those targets. Again, he has a rookie quarterback that we expect to improve.
Starting point is 00:51:15 Terry McClure. All right, Heath's breakouts. I take the over on the targets. It's a lot. Kyler Murray, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Miles Sanders, and Terry McLaurin. All right, guys, let's see if we can do busts quickly here. We've got five of each of you,
Starting point is 00:51:33 two, three sentences and who you take them over. I'm counting on you, Dave. You get to start with your busts. I'm going to start with Josh Allen, who I'm just not feeling at all. I think the rushing is going to go down. And if you're trusting him for his passing, he's probably not going to do very well.
Starting point is 00:51:47 He is just hanging on in my top 10. Okay. Who would you take ahead of him? The old guys, Ryan, Brady, Breeze. All right. That's Josh Allen. Next. Next up is Todd Gurley,
Starting point is 00:51:59 whose ADP looks like it's right around 30th overall. He's going to have to score 14 touchdowns again to do that. I don't know if I trust him to do that. I don't trust him to be explosive, and I certainly don't think that he's got a chance to play 15 games again. And this is an Atlanta team that loves to throw the ball a ton. He's not nearly as good of a pass catcher as he used to be. I'm going to try and fade Gurley unless he falls to me in late round four.
Starting point is 00:52:26 So Melvin Gordon over him? I go back and forth between those two. Right now, I do have Gurley one notch ahead of Gordon, both of them mid to late round four. Okay. Next bust? Jonathan Taylor's being drafted way too soon. He's an awesome talent. He's a great guy. Chris Ballard said on Sirius XM that he doesn't know pass protection yet. So that's a work in progress. They don't have to rush him. They've got Marlon Mackie at 1100 yards last year. They'll trust him in that role. They've got Naheem Hines.
Starting point is 00:52:54 He's going to catch the ball a ton. That's what Phillip Rivers does. He'll have a couple of great games. Maybe even early on was the Colts blow out Jacksonville, but I see everybody taking him in round three and round four. I can't get behind that. Okay. At Josh Allen, Todd Gurley, Jonathan Taylor, two more. David Johnson's 28 years old. He averages 3.7 yards per carry. Bill O'Brien and the Texans stink at figuring out how to use running
Starting point is 00:53:16 backs. They're pretty good at figuring out how to use their quarterback, though, and he'll steal some touchdowns away from whoever's running the ball. They won't catch a lot of passes. I'm nervous about him. So Ronald Jones ahead of David Johnson, Ronald Jones out of David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell ahead of David Johnson.
Starting point is 00:53:31 Who's your last bust? David Montgomery, who on top of not being elusive last year, he ranked 27th out of 28 running backs in that category. Now he's dealing with a groin injury from training camp and the bears don't know who their quarterback is yet. And their offensive line stinks. Tariq Cohen's the better playmaker. I'd rather have Cohen than Montgomery in PPR.
Starting point is 00:53:50 I feel like Jamie hasn't spoken in a while. So, Jamie, you get to go next. Dave's busts were Josh Allen, Todd Gurley. No, no, no. He just went last. He can go. All right, fine. Josh Allen, Todd Gurley, Jonathan Taylor, David Johnson,
Starting point is 00:54:01 and David Montgomery. As long as I heard Jamie's sweet voice in there. Go ahead, Heath. I'm going to just do a thing where I'm going to package two for one in my first two bust calls. Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson both have ADPs in the first 10 picks. And I know you've probably heard this, but don't draft them in the first round.
Starting point is 00:54:18 They have to repeat what they did in their record-setting years to be worth that. There's not any upside at that point. So do not take those two quarterbacks in the first round of a draft. Take them when? I would take them in round three. I would not take them in the second round either, but definitely don't take them in the first round.
Starting point is 00:54:35 All right, three more. And number two. No, that was number one. Number two is, and we do this every single year as well, but we haven't talked about it yet. The Steelers and the 49ers have eighth and ninth round ADPs. Two years ago, it was the Bears. The year before that, it was Jacksonville
Starting point is 00:54:55 with the seventh or eighth round ADP. And not only did they not live up to that, they actually weren't even that good. These defenses will probably be good this year. They won't be worth a pick before round 12. Don't do that. All right. Next up. So now we're down to two.
Starting point is 00:55:11 So number three, I'll say Le'Veon Bell because I've drafted him so much and I want to not be the guy that was telling people to draft Le'Veon Bell. So yeah, it's a bad thing when they're saying Frank Gore is getting 40% of the snaps in practice. It's a bad thing when they say Le'Veon Bell. So, yeah, it's a bad thing when they're saying Frank Gore is getting 40% of the snaps in practice. It's a bad thing when they say Le'Veon Bell got a carry with the second team today. It's all dumb.
Starting point is 00:55:33 And this shouldn't be a concern in the fourth round. But his ADP is in the third round right now, and it's Adam Gase. And so I took him in round six today. If that happens, then you just have to hold your nose, but he do not take him in round three or four. Whereas ADPS, my homes and Jackson Steelers and Niners Le'Veon Bell.
Starting point is 00:55:55 Who else? Deandre Hopkins. There was a, speaking of news today, there was a little blurb that came up. It said Cliff Kingsbury really wants to expand Andy Isabella's role. Andy Isabella is not going to have a fantasy impact, but think generously at 140 targets that only gets him to 1100 yards at eight yards per target. He's been below eight yards per target four of his past five seasons. Okay. Uh, one more. The last one is DK Metcalf. It's hard to find a wide receiver based on what round they're being taken as a bust,
Starting point is 00:56:51 but he's going ahead of Terry McLaurin, ahead of Cortland Sutton, ahead of Stefan Diggs, ahead of DJ Chark. I would rather have all of those guys than him. We're giving him credit for Russell Wilson being great, and Wilson is great, but that's why he was so
Starting point is 00:57:07 good last year. I don't think you should expect him to grow on that unless Tyler Lockett gets hurt. And we're hoping Tyler Lockett doesn't get hurt. All right, Heath's busts are Mahomes and Jackson if they're going in the first round. Steelers and Niners, DSTs, Le'Veon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, and DK Metcalf. Okay, Jamie, you're
Starting point is 00:57:24 up. I get to talk? Yeah, I guess so. I just want to add one thing to the Hopkins thing because part of the conversation with Pete, they're talking up Dan Arnold too. And that's just another guy that they're going to throw the ball to. I would take the under on those targets, Heath.
Starting point is 00:57:41 I think he's going to be around 120. He's still going to be good. I just don't think he's going to be great again. I I'm, I'm almost tempted to take him out around two and put him around three. Um, I'm going to stay consistent. Derek Henry.
Starting point is 00:57:50 Uh, I'll take him in the back end of the first round in non PPR. He's never going to get there. Um, so I, I'm probably not going to draft a lot of Derek Henry. Um, although I did get him in,
Starting point is 00:57:59 in round three of our two QB league, which was a surprise. So I'll take him there, but in PPR, I'm not going to take him in the first round. And I think it's a mistake based on even Ryan Tannehill saying, you're going to involve him in the past, or he would like to see him involved in the passing game more.
Starting point is 00:58:12 That's something that has to come up. I don't think he's going to be much more than 20 to 25 catches. So I'm, I'm, I'm shying away from Derek Henry who lost a big part of his offensive line. Okay. That's number one. Who's number two. Another one we've talked about a lot, Leonard for net. You know, who lost a big part of his offensive line. Okay, that's number one. Who's number two? Another one we talked about a lot, Leonard Fournette. You're hearing how much Chris Thompson's playing on passing downs. Chenault not only is going to be part of the receiving game,
Starting point is 00:58:34 he's going to be part of the running game as well. They'll give him some carries. And this is a team that is going to have some very, very bad game scripts. So he'll go from three to maybe six touchdowns, but that's the only number I see going up for him. Who would you take ahead of Leonard Fournette? Oh, man. Jonathan Taylor, for one, that's easy.
Starting point is 00:58:52 I would take Gurley, you know, if we're talking about, you know, some of the guys. How about Mark Ingram? I would take Ronald Jones ahead of him. I would take Mark Ingram ahead of him in non-PPR. Derek Henry, Leonard Fournette, three more. Devin Singletary. You know, just what's seemingly a terrible training camp for him.
Starting point is 00:59:09 He's had some fumble issues. He's going to, I think, lose goal line work to Zach Moss. He may lose passing down work to Zach Moss. He closed the year at him. You've talked about this a lot. You know, his workload was up. He was performing at a high level. But I just don't think that they are in love with him.
Starting point is 00:59:23 And they may be a little bit more in love with Zach Moss. Three more, two more. Uh, get away from the running back. I'm, uh, I give you two big names at the wide receiver spot, Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen. So for Cooper, you know, we know the story. They had CD lamb. Uh, he was just amazing last year at the start of the season and clearly injuries were a problem, but he averaged 19.4 PPR points in his first nine games and nine PPR points per game in his final six. So, you know, you're looking at a guy or seven, excuse me. You're looking at a guy that battled injuries and played through it. I don't know if the contract situation was the motive, any factor, you know, maybe he sits out a game or two, if he is dealing with those injuries, but I just think they're going to have better weapons. You
Starting point is 01:00:01 know, Darwin's an upgrade on Witten, in my opinion. Lamb is an upgrade over Randall Cobb. And I don't think Michael Gallup is going away. So Amari Cooper, for a guy that's going as a top 10 wide receiver based on RADP, I'm out. And Keenan Allen. OK. And Keenan Allen, we know. The quarterback situation, not good.
Starting point is 01:00:17 And he's going as the 17th receiver off the board in non-PPR? No. Wow. All right. Derek Henry, Leonard Fournette, Devin Singletary, Amari Cooper and Keenan Allen for Jamie. Thank you guys for your sleepers, breakouts and busts. We'll save the Facebook poll for tomorrow's
Starting point is 01:00:32 show was fun stuff. Join our Facebook group, facebook.com slash fantasy football today. And congratulations to these people who are in the podcast league. Joey Wright is sharing a team with Dave Jordan Krasner, one hour NFL draft contest way back when. Zach Berger got in because Jamie gives away spots like Halloween candy,
Starting point is 01:00:51 and he gave one away to Zach Berger. Alan in Philly, one of our biggest fans, he's in. Joe Cabalbo, congratulations. Chad Meldrum, Justin Keller, Isaac Olson. You heard the song that Isaac Olson wrote a few episodes ago. And Peter Walker. There were some COVID-related ones. Peter Walker is an active-duty researcher working on COVID modeling. Justin Keller is a small business owner who's come on some tough times due to COVID. So definitely want to help get those people recognized, get some of them in the
Starting point is 01:01:24 league. And I want to thank everybody for their... I'm going recognized, get some of them in the league. And I want to thank everybody for their... I'm going to do a thank you earlier in the next show because I know not everybody listens to the entire show when it's an hour long. But you can listen to Jeff White's song. He made the For the People League. First, I'm going to tell you about Jason, who almost made the cut.
Starting point is 01:01:41 Jason's email said, Hi, my name is Jason. I live in Seattle, Washington. I love your show, and I made a deal with my wife that if I get a spot into your league, then we can have a baby. Please let me in.
Starting point is 01:01:52 So I didn't want that responsibility. So he didn't get in, but I did email him back, and they're going to have a baby anyway. So it's a happy ending, I guess you could say. Now, Jeff White. That might be your best joke ever. Thank you.
Starting point is 01:02:06 I'm going to let Jeff White play us off with the second half of a song he wrote about our show. Oh, that's not it. Sorry, Jeff. Here we go. Dave Richard, now he's the man. He knows all the best pizza from here to Japan. With his trade charts and drafting tiers, I'm a fan. He knows all the cities you're from
Starting point is 01:02:26 In this land Jimmy Eisenberg Now he is no geek He's got sleepers and busts in the start of the week His Bobby Boucher is pretty unique He's got a man crush on Pete Prisco Take a drink Take a drink, everybody.
Starting point is 01:02:59 FFT, you're the one for me.

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