Fantasy Football Today - 2019 ROOKIE QB EVALUATIONS; Dynasty Risers & Fallers (02/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 11, 2020

The Chargers announced Philip Rivers will enter free agency, but are his years of Fantasy relevance behind him regardless of where he signs? (3:00) ... We move from Rivers to evaluating the 2019 rooki...e quarterbacks, discussing their value for 2020 and beyond (8:50). Did Kyler Murray show enough upside to be considered a consensus top 5 QB for 2020? Talking Murray, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew and others ... Next, we make our picks for the biggest dynasty risers and fallers at QB, RB and WR from 2019 (38:35). Kenyan Drake's stock is way up, but what about Ryan Tannehill? ... And we finish by answering your emails at fantasyfootball@cbsi.com, including a suggestion for who could be the Dalvin Cook of 2020 (57:36). 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos For more fantasy football coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?
Starting point is 00:00:38 Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.
Starting point is 00:00:59 BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. Here we go! Email us at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Here we go! It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Let's go!
Starting point is 00:01:18 Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Oh, baby. We have got some 2019 quarterbacks. Not 2020 quarterbacks. We're not going there yet. But we're going to review those 2019 quarterbacks, put them under the microscope, and let you know what it means for Dynasty moving forward as well as seasonal leagues. We'll get to you, too.
Starting point is 00:01:39 And we'll talk about Phillip Rivers moving on from the Chargers. It kind of stabs me in the heart as a player I've watched for a long time. And we promised that we would answer emails. We're going to do it today on the Fantasy Football Today podcast. Video on YouTube. In your ears via podcast. I'm Dave Richard. I wish I was chilling in a Benz.
Starting point is 00:01:56 But instead, I'm hanging with Benz. Ben Schrager in studio. Ben Gretsch hanging in the Pacific Northwest. I'm going to put you guys on the spot. I've got a blind comparison for you guys, a double blind comparison for you guys to check out. I want you to let me know which of these quarterbacks you would rather give $20 million to.
Starting point is 00:02:15 And Ben Gretsch, we'll start with you. Quarterback A, over the last two seasons, the double blind comparisons over the last two seasons, 67% completion rate, 8.1 yards per attempt, a 55 to 32 touchdown to interception ratio, and that's in 32 games. Quarterback B, a 62% completion rate, but also 8.1 yards per attempt passing,
Starting point is 00:02:40 a 52 to 44 touchdown to interception ratio, and that was in 27 games so five fewer games same yards per attempt the completion rate was down the touchdowns were about even the interceptions a little bit more quarterback a quarterback b who would you rather give money to i mean i think i think the answer is obvious so now i'm i'm concerned but quarterback A threw fewer interceptions through a higher completion percentage, and everything else was pretty equal, so you've got to take that guy. Ben Schrager. Ben's reasoning is great, but I think it's quarterback B.
Starting point is 00:03:13 Why else would you ask? Well, let me just add one more thing to the quarterback A and quarterback B. Quarterback A, the one with the higher completion rate, the one with more touchdowns, the one with the lower interception, the one with more touchdowns, the one with the lower interception rate is currently 38 years old and quarterback B is currently 26 years old. So a 12 year gap in age
Starting point is 00:03:33 between these two quarterbacks. Does it change either of your answers? I'm sure it's not going to change. I'm going to stick with my answer. You're going to stick with B. Ben Gretsch, do you change from A to B? This has to be Phillip Rivers and Jameis Winston. It be Phillip Rivers and Jameis Winston. It is Phillip Rivers and Jameis Winston. I'm going to take, I guess you take Jameis because he's younger.
Starting point is 00:03:56 Okay, so that's the dilemma that might be facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now because Jameis Winston is a free agent. They could franchise him and keep him for at least one more year. The Chargers came out and they said, we're mutually parting ways with Phillip Rivers. Phillip Rivers doesn't want to be back. We don't want to have him back. We're not going to say that we're not resigning him. We're not going to say that he's ditching us and leaving us for dead.
Starting point is 00:04:12 It's a mutual parting of the ways. Phillip Rivers has been in the league for a long time. I remember scouting him when he was at NC State. And I gave my, this is the very first scouting report I ever did. And I gave it to a couple of friends that worked in the NFL. And they said, this is a great report. You nailed the essence of Philip Rivers, and we'll see how right you are. So I've kind of rooted for Philip Rivers along the way. And now he's a free agent. He's not going to be a charger anymore. He's in, he's looking for that next chance to win a Super Bowl. He's not going to do that in
Starting point is 00:04:45 LA. I think we all knew that. How should fantasy managers feel about Philip Rivers going into 2020 Ben Trager? I think it depends where he lands. I don't see myself drafting him in any leagues. I don't think he's going to be on that top 12 radar like he's been for 10 years in his career. But if he lands somewhere like Indianapolis behind a really good O-line it could be great for a tight end you know he loves his tight ends if he lands let's say in Tampa Bay it wouldn't be the worst thing for the Bucks receivers I'd rather have Jameis for them but it wouldn't be the worst thing for him so it really depends where he lands but I think he can he can still support some fantasy weapons despite being pretty old ben gretch he's the all-time leader in
Starting point is 00:05:28 completions passing yards and passing touchdowns for the chargers if you could pick his destination for him where would it be i think it'd be the colts and schrager just nailed it that's i think the best spot for him i i think he can be good for an nfl team in 2020 um i've been away like avoiding him for the past several years because he was never mobile and especially late in his career he he gains absolutely zero rushing yards and we talk about how rushing upside helps but even just guys that can scramble a little bit like even tom brady will scramble a little bit from time to time um not so much anymore but there are guys who will at least scramble for a hundred or a couple hundred yards throughout the year.
Starting point is 00:06:08 Rivers like zero. I don't think he's had a hundred rushing yards in, in five or 10 years now. So he's not somebody who's going to get you anything on the ground. You have to completely rely on his passing stats, which means that he probably doesn't have big upside unless he can throw for, you know, 40,
Starting point is 00:06:23 45 touchdowns and 5 000 yards and i don't really see that happening at this stage of his career so for me i i like where uh what he can do for the skill position players around him like schrager just said i will be particularly interested in the running back position he really likes to throw to backs in the red zone and he's done that across different coaching staffs he did that way back when danny woodhead was on the team uh we saw it with austin eckler we've seen it with melvin gordon these guys have caught a lot of touchdowns over the last five seven eight years woodhead had uh six receiving touchdowns in both of his full seasons uninjured seasons in in san diego at the time so i'll be really interested in the running backs because of the way he likes to
Starting point is 00:07:03 use them in the red zone. So one of my favorite things about Philip is that he gets off to a hot start pretty much every year. Last year, same thing. Three of his first four games, at least 22 fantasy points. And I know that you guys made a great case for Indianapolis and he'd be a good fit there. But I can't help but think about what it would be like for him in Tampa Bay where he's got Chris Godwin in the slot. You'd think that the 100 catches would be on the table again for Bay where he's got Chris Godwin in the slot you'd think that the hundred catches would be on the table again for Godwin if Philip Rivers is there they're gonna do something at running back to add a pass catcher there and Mike Evans how can we forget about Mike
Starting point is 00:07:35 Evans as a downfield threat and maybe that would hurt Evans a little bit because Rivers were just not sure how much arm strength he has left but it's it that big of a downgrade? Would you be unhappy to draft Mike Evans if Jameis Winston was no longer the quarterback and it was Phillip Rivers in Tampa Bay, Ben? I think I wouldn't be unhappy to draft him at all. He drops pretty much around wide receiver 10, maybe outside of my top 10 if it is Rivers. I'd love the Winston to Evans combo,
Starting point is 00:08:01 and it just wouldn't be the same. I would be much happier with Godwin than Evans I think the gap's not very big right now but if it's Rivers the gap becomes a lot bigger Ben Gretch um same question to you do you think that Jameis Winston's going to be much better for Mike Evans Winston's willing to sling it but but Rivers is too we saw for a long time downfield targets in in San Diego and then in Los Angeles would get plenty of targets down the field. Mike Williams got a ton of air yards this past season. You go back a few years, you have Malcolm Floyd for years.
Starting point is 00:08:35 You have Vincent Jackson there years before that. I think Mike Evans would still be fine. I think that's kind of a system thing. We saw it work pretty well with Carson Palmer, who is probably a better comp for Phillip Rivers, late-stage Carson Palmer in Arizona in Bruiserian's system. I wouldn't downgrade Evans too much. Okay, and the last thing I'll say is that
Starting point is 00:08:57 Phillip Rivers has been in two types of offenses his entire career. He started his career doing the Eric Correale thing. North Turner was his play caller for a while. So that type of offense offense aggressive downfield passing the exact same type of system that's in tampa bay right now whereas in indianapolis it's the west coast rivers has never been in a west coast offense but i think that type of system would be good for him because he doesn't necessarily have that power arm that he used to have so spreading the ball around relying on his accuracy relying on outsmarting defenses i think that that would actually work out for him rivers is an interesting guy to keep an eye on in fantasy play in 2020 at least as at best a late round pick but
Starting point is 00:09:35 more importantly how he could impact the pass catchers on the team that he joins and he will end up going somewhere all right in addition to rookie quarterback evaluations today we're going to do dynasty risers and fallers so a little bit of a dynasty intense podcast but it doesn't mean we can't talk about how these players are going to be in 2020 as well but let's get into the rookie quarterback evaluations this is something that i've been waiting for us to do and let's start right at the top with last year's number one overall pick kyler murray six point for passing touchdown leagues he finishes QB 11 overall QB 15 in fantasy points per game 19.3 fantasy points per game started 16 games we talked about
Starting point is 00:10:13 him on Monday's podcast I feel like we really didn't see the the most of the the best of him what he could potentially do because the offense had to change as the year went on especially once they got Kenyan drake and there were even games before kenyan drake came in where chase edmonds was putting up huge numbers the question now for 2020 rankings we already we already talked about this he's at least top 10 for two of the three fantasy analysts on cbssports.com he's top five how early would you take kyler murray both in a forget about the 2020 draft let's focus on dynasty for a sec dynasty draft brand new league we're starting it up is he does he even get consideration with a top
Starting point is 00:10:52 30 pick he he's probably just just outside the top 30 I think he's for sure a top five quarterback in dynasty and then spinning it towards 2020 I don't I don't have him in my top five but he has that upside and that's why you like him in dynasties he's young he's got the upside with his legs and he didn't rely on his legs to have success this year he was still over 3 000 yards passing so it's not something where he's just a running quarterback so i i like him in dynasty not a top 30 pick for me though bangrette yeah i agree i i there's not a lot of qb's i would take in the top 30 picks in dynasty i'm i'm typically building around wide receivers and running backs obviously qb's are going to have more
Starting point is 00:11:36 longevity but they're also more replaceable year over year and so yeah he wouldn't really sniff the top 30 for me but i do i do agree with schrager that he'd be a top five dynasty quarterback for me absolutely and if if i could get him a little bit later i i would we the the rushing upside was apparent and and to schrager's point he did throw decently he threw for over 3 000 yards but he didn't really hit any kind of upside with his passing offense there's plenty of room for him to grow into this dual threat that could be an absolute fantasy monster. So I agree.
Starting point is 00:12:07 I mean, in 2020 redraft, I think I have him at QB six right now. I've been debating him and Dak at QB five. I'll be on him next year. Who's your QB four, Ben? I have Wilson and Deshaun Watson at three and four. OK, so Wilson, Watson, Dak. Or I think Watson three. Okay.
Starting point is 00:12:28 Yeah. We all have them right around there. Seven of Kyler's first 11 games in the pros, at least 20 fantasy points. Just had a really cold finish. And it's a team that stalled in the red zone a ton. That's why Zane Gonzalez was a thing for fantasy. And I think I can answer these questions pretty easily. stalled in the red zone a ton that's why zane gonzalez was a thing for fantasy and i think i think i can answer these questions pretty easily when you compare kyler to jamis and we have already
Starting point is 00:12:50 established that jamis is 26 years old or kyler to josh allen and josh allen's a pretty young quarterback in his own right i think we'd take kyler ahead of him in dynasty for sure in dynasty yes um i don't know about redraft though i i Jameis just higher than Kyler in redraft. I think we've seen a lot more from him. I think Kyler can take a next step, but he's going to have to take a next step to be better than Jameis. And I think we kind of know what we're getting with Jameis. He's going to throw the ball a lot.
Starting point is 00:13:16 There's going to be a ton of yards. He has the weapons that Kyler really doesn't have right now. So I do like Jameis over Kyler this year. But long-term, Kyler for sure is my number one of that group both Josh Allen and Kyler Murray will be 23 years young when the 2020 season kicks off in September let's move on to Daniel Jones and and I just took a look at the Giants offense and what they might be under Jason Garrett Jason Garrett called plays for the Cowboys for six seasons from 2007 to 2012.
Starting point is 00:13:45 After that, he didn't call plays. He had somebody else do it for him in Dallas. And the quarterbacks had good numbers. The passing games were really productive under him. The tight end was very reliable. Of course, we're talking about Tony Romo as the quarterback most of those years. Jason Witten is the tight end most of those years. There was a 1,000-yard receiver pretty much every single year.
Starting point is 00:14:04 And Jones is now getting that opportunity with Jasonason garrett garrett's getting the chance to call plays again staying in the nfc east and daniel jones going into his second season it's someone who i think is going to be very interesting in both seasonal and dynasty play finishes the 24th quarterback overall in 2019 but he averaged 19.4 points per game that's the tenth of a point more than kyler murray so that was pretty interesting his consensus he's still ranked pretty low for me for jamie and for heath outside of the top 15 there is potential but i'll start with this and ben gretch here we go what was the most promising thing that daniel jones showed you in 2019 and if you say it's
Starting point is 00:14:42 his ability to not fumble you're off the show right now you can't come back on yeah i i mean there's two answers and i think the easy one is that he showed some mobility which is which is kind of indisputable he looked pretty good moving out of the pocket and running i what i will say instead though is just kind of weakly upside he had a couple four touchdown five touchdown games and it seems like there's quarterbacks that don't don't hit that type of ceiling sometimes he seemed like a gamer a guy who could really put up big numbers uh and when he gets into the flow and gets in you know starts reading a defense well he can put up big big fantasy totals and so that for me was a promising
Starting point is 00:15:19 sign i think if you can kind of level out other things but if you can do that as a rookie and you can have these big gaudy pass touchdown numbers and individual games and do it a couple of different times, I think that's pretty promising for your passing upside down the road. He had the same touchdown percentage rate and interception rate. And that's the percentage of passes they throw us that ended up in a touchdown or an interception as Jameis had in the past two years, almost exactly 5.2% of his passes were touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:15:46 2.6% were, I'm sorry, Phillip Rivers the last two years. Jameis had a 4.4 interception rate. Of course, that's not good. So he was kind of in line with what Phillip Rivers had been doing the last two years when it comes to how frequently he threw a touchdown or had an interception. I think there's upside here. I'm almost wondering if I haven't ranked too low, but again,
Starting point is 00:16:06 the quarterback position loaded with guys that do have some nice upside. I'm with you there. I do think you have him too low. I have him as quarterback 15, and I was thinking about moving him up even higher. He had four games over 35 points. That's the most by a rookie ever. And he just showed that weekly upside
Starting point is 00:16:22 that Ben Gretch is talking about. And he has a ton of weapons, none of which were all healthy at the same time this year. And under Jason Garrett next year, I think he can take a legit next step, and I would not be surprised if he creeps into my top 12 quarterbacks by draft season. Garrett is basically a 60% pass play caller, and he also runs the Eric Correal offense, so it is going to be an aggressive downfield offense.
Starting point is 00:16:50 And just as an aside, as i did the study and now i'll tweet the link out of just what jason garrett means to the giants now that he's there um great track record of receivers putting up numbers and i thought about the receivers for the giants and evan ingram should certainly get his but i think there's room for darius slayton to be the big play guy in this offense and not sterling shepherd and i hate to say that because sterling is a good receiver but Slayton has hit my radar as a breakout player in 2020 because of the tendencies that I've seen from Garrett and how wide receivers tend to do in his offense and what I think his game is and his skill set is and I don't think there's any question that Daniel Jones can get the ball downfield so I'm interested in Daniel Jones in terms of seasonal fantasy maybe as a sleeper and you're right i probably have him too low that'll be the first change that i make in my rankings since i
Starting point is 00:17:29 actually put out the rankings is moving daniel jones up but i gotta admit that there's upside there but what about in dynasty is someone's got him in every single dynasty league and and gretch i'll throw it to you do you think that there's potential now i don't know how low you can buy daniel jones for in dynasty but even if the price is let's get crazy a first round pick in the 2020 draft would it be worth it if you needed a quarterback with long-term potential in dynasty leagues i wouldn't pay that and i'll pump the brakes just a little bit here i agree with everything we're saying about the upside and i obviously just said some positive things about him, but I do want to be a little careful because, you know,
Starting point is 00:18:08 some of those numbers we talked about with Jason Garrett, you mentioned Tony Romo was a quarterback. I think Romo gets a little bit of a bad rap and most casual fans minds. I think he was really, really good quarterback. And I don't think Daniel Jones has shown us enough that we can think that he's going to be anywhere really near that level yet as a passer. There's a lot left to figure out with Daniel Jones in my mind,
Starting point is 00:18:28 and he does have a really good running back. And if they're able to establish the ground game, it seems like what Dave Gettleman and the Giants want to do. So we'll see. But I don't think if I'm looking at your rank of number 19 for 2020 or Ben talking about him potentially creeping into the top 12, I think I actually lean more towards where you have him lower in the teens. And I probably won't be seeing him as a top 12 quarterback or up in that range in 2020. And in Dynasty, he's not somebody that
Starting point is 00:18:57 I'm going to be trading a 2020 first for at all. Who would you rather have in Dynasty, Daniel Jones or Baker Mayfield? I'll go around the horn starting with you ben i would rather have baker i still feel very confident in him and i blame most of what the browns did wrong in 2019 on freddie kitchens and i would rather have baker too in dynasty i think he showed more as a college quarterback that and he's pretty much just as young as daniel jones that i think there is that long-term upside. But I think he's more of a question mark this year than Daniel Jones is because we have no idea what the Browns offense is going to look like. I'm worried that the Browns offense is going to be a little more run-centric. They've got two great running backs.
Starting point is 00:19:35 They can improve the offensive line. They can take the pressure off of Baker Mayfield, and hopefully the defense will play a little bit better. And that makes me worry about Baker Mayfield hitting 4,300 yards and 28 touchdowns. And I think Daniel Jones and just the way that Jason Garrett's offense has been and the way that the Giants' defense is, I think that that's a defense that's going to take a lot of work to improve.
Starting point is 00:19:56 I think Daniel Jones will have to throw a lot, and I think Garrett will give him the confidence to go and throw a lot. So I think I like Jones better than Baker Mayfield in seasonal. But what about long-term? Dynasty. Dynasty I might I like Jones better than Baker Mayfield in seasonal. But what about long-term? Dynasty, I might go with Daniel Jones there too because he's younger. And we could be 18 to 24 months away from Baker Mayfield being labeled a bust. Now we can say the same thing about Daniel Jones.
Starting point is 00:20:21 They're both on the same path to a fork in the road where they're either going to have to have it click and they're good and people look at them as good fantasy quarterbacks and good nfl quarterbacks or they're labeled a bus and those teams have to move on from them so as long as they're on that same road as long as they're on the same road i think you have to look at them the same way and i i feel like daniel jones just the rushing potential i think that helps them in fantasy And I think the fact that he's, I almost feel like his coaching staff will give him a full pass for last year. Hey, you were a rookie. You were figuring things out. There were problems with the team. It's a new coaching staff. Whereas the new coaching staff coming into Cleveland will say, well, you're good Baker
Starting point is 00:20:57 Mayfield. And yeah, you've got Odell Beckham and we're going to make use of those guys. But we also have two really good running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and we've got to get them rolling. Yeah, I was just going to say use of those guys, but we also have two really good running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and we've got to get them rolling. Yeah, I was just going to say, who had more turnovers? And I know Jones obviously didn't play the whole season, but 18 fumbles and 12 interceptions for Jones. And we know Baker had a really bad season, and he had 21 interceptions, only fumbled six times. So 27 to 30 potential turnovers for Daniel Jones I don't know who recovered all those fumbles but he Baker actually had in a in a season that we're viewing as a really down season and he had a ton of interceptions actually had fewer I
Starting point is 00:21:39 guess turnover worthy plays if you count all fumbles as turnover worthy plays than jones did in a partial season uh i i still think very highly of baker and the way that i'm looking at it is uh there's really only room to grow from what happened in 2019 i mean we could be 18 to 24 months away from him being labeled as a bust i i am was so down on that kitchens offense all throughout the year i went back when i was writing my stealing signals recap and was looking at some of the stuff i said early in the year and even by week three i was just ripping in to kitchens i mean it was that early and it was clear to everyone i was referencing the you know twitter comments and outside observers it's clear to everyone right away in september that things were not right with this coaching staff and the way that this team was running and if you hear some of the quotes from the players and the rest of the
Starting point is 00:22:25 coaches, Todd Monk had some quotes. These guys quit on their season. So for me, it's all upside for Baker going forward. Daniel Jones played well and it's promising, but the turnovers and things, I think he's the one that's more of the risk going forward to potentially even get benched if he keeps turning the ball over as much as he was this past year. I'm not sure he would get benched, and I'm not sure Baker would get benched either no matter how bad they play in 2020. We don't know who their backups are for sure going to be at this point, but I think they're both going to be given a lot of leash
Starting point is 00:22:59 by both of their coaching staffs, both of them with new coaches. We'll see what happens, but to me they're both kind of the same i feel like jones maybe has a little bit more upside so i am going to rank daniel jones ahead of baker mayfield a quarterback who i will not rank ahead of both of those guys but heath cummings might is gardner minshu who in 2019 finished just as the quarterback 23 overall but he averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game that's pretty good for a guy who was a day three pick he played in 14 games he started 12 of them he is ranked outside of the top 15 for all of us even heath cummings heath who is a huge gardener minchu fan it has him ranked 17th i think drafting him in a 1qb league is a little bit too much uh in a seasonal format but what
Starting point is 00:23:44 about dynasty it's a dynasty startup and you're in your last three or four rounds and if he's there is a little bit too much in a seasonal format. But what about Dynasty? It's a Dynasty startup, and you're in your last three or four rounds. And if he's there, do you take the chance on him, knowing that there's not even a guarantee that he's going to be the starting quarterback for the Jaguars? If your bench is really, really big, and right now you're looking at your quarterback might be someone like Phillip Rivers or Tom Brady, who may just have one or two years left, I'll take Minshew in that last couple spots but I don't I don't know that he's going to be a starter this year I don't know if Minshew will ever necessarily start a full
Starting point is 00:24:13 season again I hope he will because I think he'll start this year and play well and and do good enough to start moving forward but he is a big risk he was not a highly touted talent coming out of college which is a little scary in dynasty but i think he's not not a bad stash at the end of your roster if you have a big bench if it's a 12 plus team league not not a terrible idea in dynasty what do you think gretch yeah i pretty much agree i mean we we saw some positive things this year i think we could potentially see him be good down the road. I like that he played in Mike Leach's system at Washington State and threw a lot. I think those air raid quarterbacks in the more modern NFL, we're going to see a lot more of those guys transition better to the NFL, just from the simple fact that they got way more reps. This guy threw a ton of passes
Starting point is 00:24:59 in college. It was a very pass-heavy scheme, and it fits well with the modern NFL. The one thing I want to see more from him this year, and will be really indicative of whether he can take a step forward and be a long-term starter or not, is the downfield passing. He had a really low average throw depth. He completed a lot of passes underneath. I believe Nick Foles' average throw depth was about a yard or more higher on the season when he was in that same offense. So we want to see him do a little bit more down the field, really push the ball down the field. He can't just take all these checkdowns and underneath passes and be a long-term NFL starter. I agree with that. Six of his first
Starting point is 00:25:35 eight games, he had at least 20 fantasy points in the six-point-per-passing touchdown league. Also, two of his last three, at least 20. But only in two of those eight games total where he was over 20 was he 25 plus so he he was good he was okay but he never really had the potential to be you know finishes a top five qb for the week and it's really hard to see that changing with doug marone still there and i know jay gruden's coming in and that's a west coast offense that i figure will be installed but i bet it's a little aggressive, and it plays to Gardner's strength of pushing the ball downfield. It's just a matter of whether he can connect downfield. And that might have some to do with Gardner Minshew and some to do with the receivers that he's throwing to.
Starting point is 00:26:16 Absolutely, yeah. I mean, I went through his games and saw when did we stream him this year. And it was five games we streamed him. Four of the five games, he was over 20 points. points so as a streamer you're cool with 20 points that doesn't mean you're gonna draft him if he's got a great matchup you could pick him up and you could start him with confidence that he'll probably get you over 20 points but he doesn't have the upside of let's say a daniel jones so daniel jones compared to gardner we all agree jones is higher but i don't know that in any one QB leagues
Starting point is 00:26:46 you'll be drafting Gardner Minshew this year. Ben, let's say that you pick Gardner Minshew with a fourth-round pick in your dynasty rookie draft last year. He sat on your bench. What would you accept in trade for Gardner Minshew? So a quarterback that you're not necessarily in need of starting. Let's say your other quarterback is Carson Wentz. And let's assume that you wanted to trade Gardner Minshew.
Starting point is 00:27:08 What would you take for him in a deal right now? Yeah, my first comment was going to be, who are my other quarterbacks? And I would want to know who my number two is and how deep I am there. Let's say he's your number two. Let's say that Gardner Minshew is your number two. And someone else in your league is a Minshew. You'd just hold on. You wouldn't even consider a trade.
Starting point is 00:27:28 Well, I mean, yeah, if you can get like a second round pick for him that's something i'd probably take regardless of situation i think i can replace him as my backup but i think he's a really good dynasty number two i mean he's just somebody that you can hold on to um the the concern i also have and we kind of hit on it trigger kind of hit on it is we don't know if he's going to start 16 games this year so we don't know that he's actually going to be there for you in dynasty if you can get a second round pick yeah probably i'm doing that if it's a third round pick i don't know if i'm doing that so that's kind of where the break would be for me first pick of the third round yeah i probably would okay so that that's a pretty good thing and i'm looking up dj charke's numbers from last year i just want to give everybody the splits. Here they are between Minshew and Foles.
Starting point is 00:28:06 He caught 62% of his targets from Minshew, 60% from Foles. He had five touchdowns from Minshew, three touchdowns from Foles, 8.9 yards per attempt from Minshew, 7.4 from Foles. So I think that Minshew's aggressiveness did pay off for DJ Chark. I'd like to see him swim with Minshew in 2020 as well. I think that would be best for his fantasy value and would probably cement him as a top 50 pick overall, especially in PPR.
Starting point is 00:28:34 Yeah, I said low-end wide receiver two, high-end wide receiver three. I think DD's numbers from last year were pretty much the same as 2018 in terms of yards per attempt, yards per target, catch rate, those sorts of things. So I'm not as excited about D.D. Westbrook. I think he's the same no matter who the quarterback is.
Starting point is 00:28:52 No matter who the quarterback is. Agreed. And I think he's just the guy at this point who's playing in the side. All right. When we come back, we'll wrap up with Drew Locke, Dwayne Haskins, and some Dynasty risers and fallers here on FFT. For the last five games of the 2019 season, Drew Locke started for the Denver Broncos. In four of the five games, he completed 60% of his passes. In three of the five, it was 64%. He had multiple touchdowns in two of them,
Starting point is 00:29:23 and he threw for over 225 yards once how excited should fantasy managers be to have drew lock on their squad going into next year heath sigh excited sigh for drew lock huh andrew lock just doesn't have just doesn't have any sort of fantasy appeal but you know who does is pat schirmer okay dave you want to tell the listeners why well i know that pat schirmer veteran play caller um i don't know how aggressive he is i haven't done the full study on him yet but i i know that he's he's an okay play caller and he tends to do a good job of cultivating his tight ends and making that a big part of his offense and i think that drew lock who was always a great fit for the West Coast offense, the
Starting point is 00:30:08 way that I look at the Broncos' change from Scangarello to Schirmer is they got a lot more experience. Scangarello was a one-year play caller. He had never called plays before this year. Pat Schirmer's called plays for probably a dozen years. So he's some, maybe not a dozen years, but a long time. He's been around the NFL for over a dozen years and maybe called plays for about six or seven of those years. Ben, you OK? You all right?
Starting point is 00:30:30 Sorry. Are you are you trying to interrupt me to say something not nice about Pat Shermer? I don't know what's going on, but I think Shermer's OK and I think his experience is good. I thought all along that Drew Locke was a good fit for the West Coast offense, but I don't know if it means that there's going to be huge numbers for him. And I think that Pat Shermer's arrival in Denver will be good for Noah Fant. I think it makes him a promising prospect to draft late in fantasy. And if you've got him in fantasy, in a dynasty league, I think it's a good thing. Having Drew Locke in a dynasty league, I almost feel like you're kind of near where you're at with Garner Minshew, where there's a chance that he could end up being something good for your team, is otherwise a qb2 or qb3 uh gretz do you see it that way or do you see something different with drew lock yeah he's a tough one
Starting point is 00:31:14 for me to read because i felt like they had a really limited offense when he took over another guy who they didn't really force or even ask to throw down the field much at all uh he took a couple shots to courtland sutton and courtland sutton tended to make plays on those because courtland sutton's amazing but his average throw depth was very very low they were running a lot of designed passes quick bubble screens they ran some screens to to noah fan i remember some some screens where they had like philip lindsey split out wide um watching that offense late in the season it felt like they were really simplifying things for lock and his numbers were good i'm not really like looking at those numbers as indicative of him being a very very good
Starting point is 00:31:55 quarterback because i don't think what they were doing is necessarily something that they can do long term it was it seemed very limited in terms of an nfl offense so i don't have a great read on him it's obviously better that he was good than than he was bad in terms of what his numbers were. But I don't have a great read on him. He does have weapons, though. We talked about Fant. We talked about Cortland Sutton. And when you talked about Shermer, one thing I want to note on him,
Starting point is 00:32:19 back when he was head coach of the Cleveland Browns, Trent Richardson, of all guys, was a top 12 running back. He used him heavily. When he was a coordinator with the Vikings, that's when Dalvin Cook really kind of broke out. Obviously, Saquon was always going to be an every down back, but I'm really interested to see what he does with the backs because the Broncos have been splitting Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman over the last several years, but Schirmer has always seemed to kind of like one lead back. I almost wonder if Philip Lindsay isn't his kind of back though, because he's not one of these big, strong workhorse types. Now he's, he's had the workhorse opportunities here and there throughout his career. And I think Lindsay
Starting point is 00:32:54 has potential as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but I want to ask you Ben Schrager about drew locks value and fantasy. And if, if there's an opportunity to buy low on him here, because in the case of Minshew, we've seen some some success already we kind of know that he's a good QB2 in dynasty and we know that Kyler Murray's price is going to be sky high but if you want to buy into a cheap rookie quarterback is Drew Locke one that you might be able to get on the on the low right now yes but I'm not giving anything more than a fourth round pick okay i would give a fourth for him if i if i need a quarterback too he i think drew lock will play 16 games this year i think i have more confidence that he'll play 16 than gardner i don't know that he'll play better
Starting point is 00:33:35 than gardner but i think the situation denver's in he's going to play the 16 games i'll take a backup quarterback in dynasty for a fifth maybe a fourth fourth-round pick if I need it. I agree. I think that he's a good buy-low type of prospect to speculate on without having to give up a whole lot for him. And I think the same can be said for Dwayne Haskins in Washington. He came on late last year. His last two games were pretty good. Everything before that was really ugly. We're just not sure what he is and he's had even less of a of of a
Starting point is 00:34:07 reliable track record i guess you could say than drew lock has had so uh gretch here we go duane haskins washington new coaching staff uh i figure it's going to be the core yell offense because it's scott turner that's north turner's son taking taking over there. Ron Rivera's teams, when they don't have a Cam Newton, they're usually rather conservative, I'd say, on offense, built around the running backs. But there is no great running back in Washington right now. There's not one guy that they can look at and say that they're great. Is Dwayne Haskins along the same line as Drew Locke,
Starting point is 00:34:40 someone that you can get cheaply in a Dynasty League right now? Yeah, I'm sure you can get him cheaply. i think that he got a little bit of a bad rap i mean for him he actually did push the ball down the field a little bit and i thought we saw some promising things from him um but also was limited in the sense that bill callahan interim head coach was basically trying to run out washington season and they ran the ball a ton even when they were trailing Haskins never uh racked up a lot of pass attempts so we didn't get a great sample on him either um but what we saw from him I think was pretty promising it's tough with with each of these guys Minshew, Locke, Haskins smaller samples didn't really see the full range of what they what they might be able to do later but if I I was going to rank those guys, I think Haskins probably still has the most upside of that group.
Starting point is 00:35:28 There is a chance, and this is just me spitballing, this isn't anything factual, that with the number two pick, the Washington Redskins fall in love with Tua Tagovailoa. And if that's the case, then they would certainly trade Dwayne Haskins a la the Cardinals with Josh Rosen if Haskins ends up in a situation with a team that needs something else an alternative at quarterback could he actually see his dynasty stock take off or does that just shorten and maybe the answer to both of these questions is yes does it shorten his leash and his opportunity
Starting point is 00:36:02 his window if you will to be a good fantasy option it depends what that team gives up for him i think for the window but if he lands with let's say the colts like we were just talking about how it's a great spot for rivers that would be a good spot for haskins as well we don't know anything about haskins at this point he played on a redskins offense that was not very good that wanted to run the ball a lot. He threw 30 passes once in all of his starts this year. So we don't know what's behind the eight ball with Haskins. If he goes somewhere else, I think his value is pretty similar. But it'd be great to get out of Washington.
Starting point is 00:36:34 The offense as a whole wasn't great this year, and it's probably not going to be great next year. What if he ended up in New England? And the Patriots, who are very savvy when it comes to player personnel, they recognize that there's an opportunity that, you know, again, let's just say they hear that Tua is the guy that Washington wants. They can go and offer, I don't know, a second-round pick to get Dwayne Haskins on their team,
Starting point is 00:36:56 and now they've got a guy for the future of the franchise. And I think he's an intelligent quarterback. I think from what I understand about him, he's not a dummy. And I think that that would be appreciated in New England. And if they re-sign Brady, Haskins is on his rookie deal. Maybe Brady leaves after a year or two more, assuming he re-signs with them. We can get into Brady and other teams at a later date, but Haskins could have some potential there. And I think the price tag for Haskins can be right around what Drew Locke's price tag was haskins can be right around what drew lock's price tag was you mentioned a fourth round pick is what you would give up to get drew lock ben
Starting point is 00:37:30 and i think that that's a fair price to pay and i wonder if that's all it could take to get duane haskins right now ben do you think that that's too low too high just right duane haskins and his dynasty trade value that's probably fair i i would i would take i mentioned i would take haskins over minchu so later third i would probably also uh i would take haskins over um you know it kind of depends on the league too if so you know obviously single quarterback league you're going to be looking at um burrow and and tua is probably second round picks so if those guys do slip to the third you know you might want to hold and make a decision on draft day because you might be able to draft those guys. So it depends.
Starting point is 00:38:11 I would take those rookies over these guys. And I just think there's more long-term upside with both of those rookie quarterbacks. But assuming those guys are off the board, I don't really see any reason I wouldn't give up a later third to acquire Haskins if I needed a backup quarterback. And the worst case scenario, he's still the starter in Washington. And I know that's not exactly exciting, but then again, late last season with Terry McLaurin, they started to connect. He had multiple touchdowns in his last two games. Maybe they opened it up a little bit more than they did last season. Your point tracker about how Bill Callahan or Gretsch, one of you two pens, I get you confused, had had an idea of just running the ball a little bit more. So I think that that's something that could help Haskins.
Starting point is 00:38:53 And I think the value right now in Dynasty, I think it's ripe for the picking for him because he does have at least a short term future in the NFL. That's probably a little bit better than Drew Locks, if not right on the same side. If you're watching us right now, you're doing it on YouTube. Fantasy Football Today on YouTube. And it's at youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Don't want to confuse you. YouTube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. And if you're listening to us, you could be watching us.
Starting point is 00:39:19 And I bet you know where to do it. YouTube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. All one word. You can get fantasy analysis there as well as in your ears, however you want to get the job done. Or you can be kind of weird and do both, and we wouldn't be opposed to that. Thank you very much for listening and for watching. Let's keep the Dynasty talk going with risers and fallers.
Starting point is 00:39:40 Let's start with some quarterbacks. So here's how this broke down. Ben Schrager asked each of us for two risers and two fallers. It worked out. Or maybe some of you guys, you only asked me for one riser and one faller. You and Ben Gretsch filled out the rest of the risers and fallers. So we have one at each position. This isn't just about 2019 rookies.
Starting point is 00:40:00 It's everybody in the player pool. So we'll give you a riser and a faller at each position. Let's start with the quarterback faller, Ben Schger you pick mitchell trubisky kind of the most obvious dynasty faller at quarterback i think that there was last year so could he be in that same category as drew lock and duane haskins as a quarterback that you can acquire super duper cheap right now in a dynasty league unfortunately yes that that would be the price tag I would give for him I have just as much interest in Trubisky as I do those guys at this point he was one of my favorite breakout candidates last year in terms of his rushing ability he was running a lot he had an awesome
Starting point is 00:40:40 rushing production in 2018 he actually ran this year a little bit he was top 15 in rushing but still wasn't a top 24 quarterback that's how bad he was with his arm he had a shoulder injury it wasn't his throwing arm so i don't think that really affected his throwing i think he regressed tremendously this year i don't want him and that's why i would do just as much as the fourth round pick i'd give for a lock or a has i think it would have to be even lower than that. You're almost certain that the Bears are going to add another quarterback somehow, someway, free agency, the draft, maybe both. Haskins in Chicago could be a move if Washington, again,
Starting point is 00:41:17 moves on from him and goes with Tua. The Bears might pony up for him, and who knows what they would do with Trubisky. I think Trubisky right now, you can almost get him for a bench player, maybe a fifth-round pick in a Dynasty league. You can get him super cheap. I just don't know what the upside really is with him. He would have to start to earn his rushing role back in Chicago. That offensive line would have to do a bang-up job protecting him,
Starting point is 00:41:37 and all the receivers would have to really step up, not just Allen Robinson and, toward the end of the year, Anthony Miller. Ben Gretsch, you were assigned a quarterback riser who did you go with in dynasty yeah i i took ryan tannehill who's had an eventful last year plus i mean he was kind of in that back end uh quarterback range that we're talking about with guys like trubisky or um some of these rookies at in mi. Then he basically got to a point where, you know, looking at being a backup in Tennessee, that he was probably not on a lot of rosters in one QB league. He was probably on a lot of waiver wires.
Starting point is 00:42:14 And now I think he's jumped back up into that, you know, QB 12, QB 15 range. You know, not QB 12, probably QB 15 range, but in that big glob of quarterbacks that are certainly viable in dynasty leagues and somebody that looks like you can probably hold for a while because he's probably going to get signed to a long-term contract. The problem and the concern here is going to be their pass attempts, right? This is not a really pass-heavy offense. They got by on a lot of really good efficiency in the second half of the season. They were great in the red zone. They were great as an offense overall in the red zone at converting
Starting point is 00:42:52 touchdowns, just historical, right, and not settling for field goals down the stretch. So Tannehill, a little concerned about his pass attempts going forward. He's kind of an interesting guy in that sense, but I love A.J. Brown. I think he's a legit wide receiver one. I think Corey Davis makes a lot more sense as a wide receiver two. Probably never going to live up to that fifth overall draft status that he had, but I think he's a viable wide receiver two. You still have Adam Humphreys in the slot. You have Delaney Walker and John New Smith, who I really like and think is somebody that
Starting point is 00:43:18 I'll be buying in Dynasty Leagues this offseason as a potential future tight end. So this is a team that has a lot of weapons around him, whether Derrick Henry's back or not. And we don't really know where Derrick Henry is going to be. I think of him a lot like Kirk Cousins now in Minnesota, where I don't really see the big difference. He has good weapons around him. It's a run heavy offense, though, but very viable if you're not on the really high upside quarterbacks in your dynasty team. He had nine of 10 games with 21 fantasy points or more to finish the season and one, two, three, four, five with 25 plus. It was really unreal how he came on last year.
Starting point is 00:43:57 And I do wonder if this is a good time to sell high on Tannehill, especially if you've got a good number one quarterback and you can acquire another quarterback to be your backup to your QB. Say I've got Mahomes and Tannehill. Ryan Tannehill's never starting for my Dynasty League team, but I could trade Tannehill, and I think I could get more in Tannehill than I could for pretty much any of the other rookie quarterbacks that we talked about not named Kyler. Agreed, but the question for you, Daveave is would you rather sell him now before we know what he's going to be in 2020 or would you wait until the titans you know re-sign him give him a
Starting point is 00:44:32 franchise tag he leaves the titans do you think he has more value now or if he's with the titans guaranteed if you put a second round pick on the table for me in a dynasty league you're taking it i'm taking it for ryan tanhill right now because i i i love what i saw from him last year i'm not convinced that he can be that guy again over a 16 game pace can he average 21 and a half fantasy points again over 16 games even you're shaking your head now so you don't you're not sure if he can do it ben do you ben gretz yes or no can he do it 21 and a half fantasy points per game next year, Ryan Tannehill? I mean, probably not. And I agree with you completely. If you have Patrick Mahomes, you trade it. I think he's a great fan. Not even necessarily great, but on a lot of my dynasty teams, I'm wide receiver, running back heavy. I don't really target the high, high-end quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:45:19 They're just too pricey and it's too replaceable of a position. And this is an example of a guy who is the reason that this is a replaceable position, but if i don't have a legit starter i probably want i feel comfortable with tannable being that if i have patrick mahomes yes i'm training ryan tannell for a second in a heartbeat but what about if you've got tom brady you just have an older quarterback and you know mahomes certainly doesn't qualify but one of the older guys around the league who had been your quarterback in your dynasty league, Tannehill would give you at least another option in case that older quarterback starts to fall off.
Starting point is 00:45:50 So I see him as a quarterback riser too, but I also think he's someone that you try and sell high on and get what you can. Running back riser, you told me to come up with a running back riser from the 2019 season, and the first name that came to my mind was Kenyon Drake. And when Drake was in miami he never quite got the opportunities that we all wanted him to get and then he got him in i think like half his games in arizona maybe even a little bit more if you're talking about just 15 touches and his value certainly went up and now i think in seasonal and dynasty leagues we look at kenyan
Starting point is 00:46:20 drake as an rv2 just someone who can be a reliable starter for your team, who has crazy high upside, playing in a good offense. We're already writing off David Johnson coming back to Arizona and being a big factor. If he's there, it's because he's making too much money. The Cardinals couldn't move him. They didn't want to cut him, and they'll find a way to use him. But Kenyon Drake is still going to be their guy. And I think Kenyon Drake would fetch you a decent amount in a dynasty league
Starting point is 00:46:44 if you did want to trade him, but I don't think you should. to be their guy and i think kenyan drake would fetch you a decent amount in a dynasty league if you did want to trade him but i don't think you should i think he's a good starter for your fantasy team moving forward and what do you make of his target share last year he averaged eight targets a game do you think he can keep that up if the cardinals keep yeah johnson if chase edmonds is still in the mix can he still get that six to eight targets i think i think if he's going to be their lead guy i think and in that offense i think six to eight targets is not out of the realm of possibility and i think that not he's already a decent value in a non-ppr league but it makes him more attractive in a full ppr and ben i know you're always worried about the offenses with russian quarterbacks and their
Starting point is 00:47:20 running backs having not as many opportunities to catch passes do you think think Kenyon Drake can keep up the catching passes if Kyler Murray starts to run even more than he did this year? Yeah, I mean, that's the right concern. It's the right question to ask. I think it is interesting in this offense particularly because it's not like Baltimore where they're not throwing all that much, right? And so the amount of times that Lamar scrambles is really going to cut into the potential dump-offs. In Arizona, I think they're going throwing all that much right and so the the amount of times that lamar scrambles is really going to cut into the potential dump offs in arizona i think they're going to throw plenty
Starting point is 00:47:49 they're not going to be a run first team um yes kyler's going to scramble and that's going to limit the dump offs but it might just bring it back from from the potential for you know eight targets a game to you know five or six uh i still think there'll be plenty of pass attempts overall and drake is a good pass catcher was a very good pass catcher at alabama that was kind of his prospect profile the fact that he was so efficient as a runner this year speaks very well as well so uh i agree with dave like i think he's definitely on the way up and their offense was way more functional with him than it was with david johnson they have to be planning on him being their lead back next year and i think it i think it
Starting point is 00:48:22 hurts kenyan drake it doesn't hurt kenyan dra And I think it hurts Kenyon Drake. It doesn't hurt Kenyon Drake. I think it hurts fantasy managers who might have been trying to target Kenyon Drake in their dynasty leagues because now he's just got this huge opportunity to keep doing what he's doing. He's going to have a lofty price tag, but his teammate David Johnson will not. And a year ago this time, think about what you would have given up in trade for David Johnson. At least two firsts.
Starting point is 00:48:46 I mean, you'd probably have to give up a really good player and a good draft pick to get David Johnson at minimum. And I'm talking a really good player along with the draft pick. Now, what would you give up for David Johnson, knowing that his future is uncertain and he's 28 years old? Let's set the over- as a third round pick which we talked about for you know Minshew and some of the other quarterbacks that are out there would you pay more or less than a third round pick to get David Johnson onto your roster I think it's a
Starting point is 00:49:14 good line I would pay a low third round pick just as a flyer for David Johnson maybe he goes to Tampa Bay but I wouldn't give more than that because if he doesn't go to Tampa Bay which is like the one place we want him to go I don't see him being productive in the near future I would give up a second I would go higher than a third to get David Johnson because I do think in the short term there is potential I do think he ends up going on somebody else's team and gets a chance a chance to be at least a part-time back if not a 60 percent of the way type of a running back, but not necessarily the workhorse guy that we saw him at in Arizona. Ben Gretsch, third round pick, too rich, too cheap. Where do you at with David Johnson?
Starting point is 00:49:52 This was your running back faller. Yeah, I would probably pay a little bit more as well. We know that he has massive upside, but there are important considerations. He was a really old rookie way back in 2015. He was 24 years old, which means because of the loss season with the elbow injury, he's now 28. fantasy relevant running backs in the league so um not somebody that you really want to overpay on for a bounce back because i don't know how many more years there really are left in this guy's career i love the skill set i love his combination of receiving ability and size and goal line production he's always been very good in short yardage uh but didn't look like the same player last year he's now three years removed from that really amazing 2016 season
Starting point is 00:50:46 that really just blew up fantasy. For me, I'd probably give up a second. There's one more team that I would love to see him on, and it's Kansas City. But the contract's really tough. That would be something. But he would share if he would go there. It would be more likely that he would share there compared to Miami, Tampa.
Starting point is 00:51:07 And sorry, Tampa. Yes, he would share. He would not share as much there with Ronald Jones. I know that you're still very much in the Ronald Jones camp, Ben Gregg. Dynasty wide receiver riser. I don't think anybody rose as much as Devante Parker. Guy was DOA on Dynasty benches. Some people might have even cut him.
Starting point is 00:51:24 He was cutting a lot of dynasty benches. Yeah, like people just did not see the future for him. But the Miami Dolphins did, and they gave him an opportunity. And Ryan Fitzpatrick is really the one that he can thank because Fitzpatrick just passes like crazy to Devontae Parker, and the numbers bore out amazing. He had a great finish to the year. He's now the clear number one for the Dolphins.
Starting point is 00:51:45 It's a team whose defense is starting to improve a little bit, but still might not necessarily be a top-half defense in the National Football League in 2020, which means they could pass more. They're clearly going toward a pass-centric approach with Chan Gailey taking over the offense, and it's an offense that Ryan Fitzpatrick knows. They'll probably add a quarterback along the way.
Starting point is 00:52:10 That quarterback, whether it's Tua or Justin Herbert both of those guys can throw downfield that's good for Devontae Parker I think his his value he's not quite he's nowhere close to being the elite fantasy receiver range in dynasty and I don't even think he's on the second tier but I think he's got potential if he keeps this going for another year where you're looking at a guy that is a consensus top 20 receiver in dynasty and a guy you'd be happy to have for the next four or five seasons totally agreed i think it's tough to have him in your top 15 for either seasonal this year or dynasty because what he's shown is pretty much half of a good season in his whole career, maybe a little more, but his upside is there, and I'm really excited for at least the first couple weeks with Fitzmagic if we only think Fitzmagic's going to, let's say, start half the season
Starting point is 00:52:53 and then they'll have a rookie come in. Okay, so we're excited about him, but just to play a little bit of devil's advocate here, he's 27 years old, and like Ryan Tannehill, he really came on, it was more than just the second half of the season. He really started to break out toward the end of September. But it's only one year, like you said, Ben Tracker. So is there an opportunity to sell high if you're just not a big believer in Devontae Parker,
Starting point is 00:53:17 knowing that you can get a pretty decent haul for him, Ben Gretch? What do you think? Yeah, I mean, if you guys are talking about him anywhere near the top 15 receivers in Dynasty, he is an easy sell high for me. Just an absolutely easy sell high for me. It's not just that it was just one year. It's that this guy's never been healthy. You go back to his college. He had production in college as well, but was never healthy, I believe, at Louisville. Just not a player that I think is at 27 and breaking out at 26 is a lock to be a top 20 receiver down the road. There are so many good young receivers coming up that are a lot younger that I would way, way rather have. I'd probably have him around wide receiver 25, wide receiver
Starting point is 00:53:59 30, maybe even lower in dynasty. I haven't know gotten through all my rankings but all of the new class of younger receivers are guys that have longer careers ahead of them are guys that i would much rather have than davante parker with this kind of late breakout um it's probably true that most of the risers we're talking about are potential sells and most of the followers are potential buys and that's kind of what we're getting at but of all of them parker's the one that i would sell the most on. Gretch, if I'm offering you the fourth pick in the second round for Devontae Parker, and Devontae Parker just had the season that he had, and if you want to quantify it further by saying who your other
Starting point is 00:54:34 wide receivers are, let's say that you're okay at that position, would you take the fourth pick in the second round for Devontae Parker today? I mean, that's a good number. That's a good number. You're probably not getting a prospect there that you feel a lot better about for 2020 or even for his whole career. The early second round pick hit rates aren't amazing in Dynasty. So I might not take that right away. I'd probably try to find a better offer throughout the rest of my league. I'm not selling low on him, but if you can get somebody who really likes Parker and thinks of him in the 15 to 20 range at wide receiver in Dynasty, then you're probably getting more than that number. Let me give you one more trade offer. I will give you Devontae Parker and the fourth overall pick in round two for the fourth overall pick in round
Starting point is 00:55:23 one. Which side of that deal would you rather have? Would you rather for the fourth overall pick in round one which side of that deal would you rather have would you rather have the fourth overall pick that's going to be the wheelhouse for cd lamb for jerry judy uh maybe if you're really into rugs that would be where he would go would you rather have that pick or would you rather have davante parker in a second round pick early second i'd rather i'd rather have the early first in that case yeah i think you can get a lot you can feel a lot more comfortable about the upside of a prospect. You can get in the top five. Schrager, you agree?
Starting point is 00:55:48 I would, too. The upside is definitely there. I'm taking that first round pick. But there is potential long term for Devante Parker that wasn't there before this year. And now that is. So it's really just a great opportunity for fantasy managers to consider your options with Devontae Parker, a faller at wide receiver in Dynasty. I was really disappointed in Robbie Anderson this year. I was expecting him to take a next step with Sam Darnold getting his feet wet, having that
Starting point is 00:56:16 comeback year. He's going to really break out and Robbie Anderson will be right beside him. Robbie Anderson's yards per target were the same as the previous season, but he only had three games over 100 yards. He was a watered down Will Fuller, unfortunately. He had eight of his 13 games were under 10 PPR points. It's just not usable. And I saw Anderson as a guy with a ton of upside. He's the kind of guy that Ben Gretsch really likes in that he could win you a week every week. He just wasn't doing it this year. And now he's going to be 27 years old going into next year we don't know what kind of next step he can take he was a big follower for me this year i think he ends up on a new team i don't think he ends up with the jets i think he signed somewhere else and if it's philadelphia i think that's interesting
Starting point is 00:56:57 if it's miami he's a south florida kid he goes to the dolphins i don't know if i'm as excited about him there and i think that actually hurts davontae Parker a little bit too if he ends up there because that's another deep threat receiver that Ryan Fitzpatrick can throw to. It makes me a little bit nervous. Ben, yes. Is there any place he could sign as a free agent that would be a worse situation than what he had to deal with in 2019 with Luke Falk starting for most of the beginning of the season, Sam Darnold being really slow coming back, Adam Gase. What we just learned with all of Adam Gase's old Miami players is he probably wasn't very good for any of them. I mean, we've talked about Kenyon Drake and Ryan Tannehill and Devontae Parker on the show and how good they all did once they got out from under Adam Gase. I don't think there's a single place he could go that would be worse
Starting point is 00:57:42 than what the the situation he was dealing with was in 2019 chicago i'd still take him in chicago over over new york i think that would be a better a more promising spot i i'm i'm seeing him in new york with sam darnold and then i'd consider him splitting up work in chicago with mitchell trubisky and i would take him in new york with darnell because in new York, at least he'd potentially be the number one guy there. I don't think New York would go and add another big-time wide receiver and re-sign Robbie Anderson. So it's splitting hairs.
Starting point is 00:58:14 I think Robbie Anderson's value is definitely fading. Don't see a big market for him. So is he a buy-low type of guy? If you need wide receiver depth, I've got a dynasty team that needs wide receiver depth. If I can give up something really cheap to get Robbie Anderson, I would probably do it. But it's a rare case. Yeah, it's really a rare case for me to consider it. And the wheels are turning in my head about what I could give up for Robbie Anderson in the dynasty league that I'm in.
Starting point is 00:58:39 All right, we promised emails. Let's get to them. And the first email that we've got from Tim actually continues the dynasty talk. Here's the email. A friend asked me if I would like to join a dynasty league. I would only know a couple of guys in the league. The league is already established. I would be taking over a team.
Starting point is 00:58:55 They are upfront about it, and they said the team is not good. He's never done a dynasty league before, and he doesn't know how long it would take him to be competitive. Again, should he consider the team and what are some things that what's some advice that we can give him maybe some suggestions in general when you take over a bad team in the dynasty league i think first you want to see what this team looks like before deciding to to join the league because if it's complete trash which it could be it may not even be worth joining this league with three people that you know but But when you take this over, you're going to have to pay something and i've heard about discounted rates when you join a league and you take over a bad team i've heard of inflated rates when you join a dynasty
Starting point is 00:59:52 league and you take over a good team but here's here he is saying that he wouldn't have to pay for this team for a couple of years which means he could be a jerk and run the team for a couple years and if it doesn't work out he says yeah i'm not doing this anymore and he gets away without actually having to invest any of his own money in the team so if you were to inherit a bad team and you didn't have to pay anything i think you'd have to pay something i think the commissioner should charge something just to make you have some skin in the game but i think i think as long as that price is cheap it's almost worth it to run a bad dynasty team and see what you can do with it over the next season or two. Yeah, I mean, there's two things here.
Starting point is 01:00:30 When I started Dynasty several years ago, I started with orphans that were similar like this, that you take over, and I didn't really enjoy that as much as when I did get around to doing my own startup and having a team that I was more invested in. I picked the players. Having said that, if you want to get in this league because you know the people and you feel comfortable with it, it does seem like a pretty good low risk type of league to get into. The
Starting point is 01:00:52 advice I would give is immediately you just trade off all assets that have any kind of current value because you're not going to win. You're not going to win in the short term, and you need to stack up on picks, future picks. Competitive teams are far more likely to give up 2021 picks right now than they are going to be to give up 2020 picks. Start stacking up 2020 first-round picks. I've seen people in leagues in these types of rebuilds end up with five, six first-round picks in a future draft. Yeah, you're going to have to be bad in 2020,
Starting point is 01:01:24 but you'll be able to load up on a lot of rookies in next year's draft and potentially really turn this team around in a couple of years or three years. So you have to go really, really firm and hard to that side of things and just trade away anything that is not nailed down. If you take over a bad team that has Christian McCaffrey, you trade away Christian McCaffrey right away and you get as many additional future assets as you can because like he has value right like and there's so much value you can get out of a trade like that so that's how i would start to rebuild it's just really go firm it's like the whole tank you know the process like the philadelphia 76ers and in the NBA. That's what you do in these dynasty leagues.
Starting point is 01:02:05 You kind of have to, but again, like Schrager said, it's going to be a couple years before you're competitive. I almost wonder if it's worth floating the idea of, and this is for Tim's case, Tim won't have to pay for a couple years, but what if he paid a third of whatever the fee is for this year and half next year, and he got some compensatory picks including the first overall pick and he negotiates something with the rest of the league where he's saying okay look i'm i'm gonna put some money up so you guys don't have just you know a dead money that's a
Starting point is 01:02:35 different term for dead money than you would in poker but a zero in the finances of the league but you give me a better chance to accelerate my team now this year would be a great year to do it. This year would be a great year to do it. And next year would be a great year to do it with all the prospects that are coming into the NFL. And I think it might help you make your team better sooner. So float that idea of offering to pay a little bit so that you can rebuild the team sooner. But it comes with getting the first overall pick maybe in every round. And that might be something. Maybe some people in the league are going to go, oh, no, no way.
Starting point is 01:03:04 I'm not going gonna do that but would they rather have some extra money in the pot to win and to have a team have a chance to be a little bit more competitive or do they rather they just want that team to be bad and have one less team paying money i don't know i guess that comes on a an owner to owner basis or manager to manager basis in a fantasy league next email is from jerry hey warwick tj michael and jamal those are falcons running backs alumnus you guys seem really low on davante freeman and i know a lot can change with free agency in the draft but if things stay the same i think he's a bona fide sleeper down here in 2019 but he was coming off of an ACL just like Dalvin Cook was in 2018 he only scored two rushing touchdowns that's bound to regress back to the mean it's a very good offense
Starting point is 01:03:51 the guys behind him proved to be terrible I know veterans aren't sexy but why can't Freeman's 2020 be a poor man's Dalvin Cook in 2019 it can be a poor man's Dalvin Cook and he's catching the ball a lot he saw the most second most targets of his whole career this year. Like you mentioned, touchdowns were down on the ground so he can bounce back. I don't think that makes him a top 20 running back this year, but he has the upside and he's catching the ball a lot. Over 50% of his fantasy points this year came from receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. So there's the upside there. You know, he's going to be involved in the pass game,
Starting point is 01:04:25 and they don't really have anyone to run the ball behind him. But, Dave, we watched every Sunday game together, and we talked about it every time. He did not look the same running the football. He rarely accelerated. He rarely accelerated. What did you say, Ben Gretsch? I couldn't hear you.
Starting point is 01:04:39 I said he's dust. Yeah, wow. He's dust. He's 28, and he hasn't looked explosive for years. Reading this made me realize that I have not thought enough about Atlanta as a great landing spot for a running back because whether they draft one, they've got to add somebody this year. They lost to Coleman last year, and they had nobody this year,
Starting point is 01:04:59 but they kept going back to Freeman. Freeman was not – he was a good pass catcher. He's always been a pretty good pass catcher. No, I'm not buying him as a guy with latent upside. I think his career is very much on the downswing. He may have had the second most targets and catches of his career in 2019. He also averaged 13.1 attempts per game. That's his fourth lowest and absolutely his lowest in seasons where he had more than two starts so i
Starting point is 01:05:27 don't think that he's somebody that's on the upswing at all i agree with you guys i'm a little nervous on him from frank does it change your draft strategy much if your league has two flex spots instead of one or none in a 10 team ppr yeah wait longer on quarterback. You need to get as many weapons as possible, as many skill guys as possible. Keep waiting on a quarterback in that kind of league. I wouldn't touch a quarterback unless you get a really good value. I would try to touch one after the eighth round because you know you're going to need an extra skill position guy.
Starting point is 01:05:59 If it's a two running back, two receiver, two flex league, and there's no tight ends that you necessarily have to start i think that changes it just a little bit not a lot it really comes down to how badly you want to have one of those good quarterbacks that's a topic that we'll talk about all offseason and preseason long but really it's just to me you're just changing one of your bench spots into a flex spot i don't think it's necessarily anything that impacts your draft strategy i think i like it in a 10 team league because it means that there's an extra starter on everybody's team and it just
Starting point is 01:06:30 makes it it's better in a 10 team league it makes it a little bit more challenging the more fantasy managers there are on the league 12 teams 14 obviously you know the talent pool gets a little bit thinner because there's more teams in the league it's a supply and demand thing dear adam dave jamie heath ben and ben there's no name on this email let's call him paul from denver i know it's before the nfl draft the answer might change but give me your thoughts on the following 14 team half ppr so this is one of those deep leagues we're allowed to keep up to six guys in rounds one through six and then you just start picking in round seven. Here are his eight keeper-worthy guys on the roster.
Starting point is 01:07:10 Which two guys would you toss back? Mahomes, Dalvin Cook, Mark Ingram, Damian Williams, Mostert, Debo Samuel, A.J. Green, and the aforementioned Devontae Parker. So remember, you can keep fewer than six, but for each guy you keep, you lose the earliest possible round. So if you only keep one guy, you only lose your first round pick. If you lose four, you lose your first four picks. If you keep four, you lose your first four. Yeah, the problem with that is with that type of format,
Starting point is 01:07:43 and I've played in leagues like this, when you have this many potential keepers the the guys that you can then get are super water the draft was awful yeah so you're probably going to want to keep as many as you possibly can even having said that i don't know that there's necessarily six here patrick mahomes is an absolute lock in a 14 team league i i would keep him dalvin cook's an absolute lock rah a 14-team league. I would keep him. Dalvin Cook's an absolute lock. Raheem Mostert is 28. He'd be one I'd consider throwing back. Damian Williams is 28, but I'd probably keep Williams over
Starting point is 01:08:12 Mostert because I do think Shanahan might go back to a committee next year. Just because Mostert closed the season as the lead back doesn't mean that they didn't have several different lead backs throughout the season. Debo Samuel's a lock. Mark Ingram's another older back. We talked about Devontae Parker.
Starting point is 01:08:28 I'm probably throwing back Mostert and either Ingram or Parker. I don't know. What do you guys think? I think I'm throwing back Mostert and Williams because you've got two nice running backs that you can start in Cook and Ingram. You're not keeping Ingram with the long-term in mind, but Cook you are. And then you've got Debo, great future ahead. Devontae Parker, maybe a good future ahead.
Starting point is 01:08:51 We just have to wait and see. And A.J. Green, hopefully he plays in 2020 after what happened in 2019. I think he was just sitting out. I think he didn't want any part of the bad play in Cincinnati. And we can't say for sure he'll be back in Cincinnati, but if he is and if Joe Burrow's the quarterback, it's not a bad thing for him. And you're keeping Patrick Mah we can't say for sure he'll be back in Cincinnati but if he is and if Joe Burrows the quarterback it's not a bad thing for him and you're keeping Patrick Mahomes yeah for sure I'm letting Mostert go I think depends where AJ Green lands probably gonna let
Starting point is 01:09:14 Damian Williams go but I wouldn't mind letting go of AJ Green from Neil from the number one beach in Florida where's the number one beach in Florida Ben Fort's the number one beach in Florida, Ben? Fort Lauderdale Beach. Is that your favorite beach? Is that the best one? That's where I go. There's some really nice ones on the West Coast. Quiet.
Starting point is 01:09:33 Sanibel Island, Marco Island. You guys might get over there if you've got a spouse or a girlfriend or a boyfriend. Take them over there. Have a nice relaxing time. Neil only wants to carry one tight end this year. This has been your travel agent, Dave Richard, speaking. He only wants to carry one tight end this year this is this has been your your travel agent dave richard speaking uh he only wants to carry one tight end who is your favorite safe middle round tight end in 2020 drafts so safe tight end is kind of something that just doesn't really exist but i think austin hooper is that guy he was dave i know you ran consistency he was the
Starting point is 01:10:02 number three tight end in consistency he's seen a a ton of targets, not only this year, but the second half of 2018 when he was breaking out. He saw five plus targets in every single game this year. I think Hooper, if he returns to the Falcons, he is a free agent. If he returns to the Falcons, he's the safest tight end option. I wouldn't mind him with a middle round pick. There's also teams he could land on where you'd be just as excited about him. New England, I think they could be in the market for a tight end after all the trouble they had with the position but do you define the
Starting point is 01:10:29 middle rounds as late round five early round six because that's where i think hooper's going to go in ppr exactly five to seven i would say his middle it'd be a little bit different in non-ppr could be a little bit later than that ben grutch do you agree i'll take evan ingram who i think's going to go a little bit later and i've seen him going a little bit later in early drafts i don't really think he should be going later and maybe he rises throughout the summer but uh he was pretty good uh again this year until he got hurt and yeah he was banged up and maybe you can say that means he's not safe but all tight ends uh are kind of injury risk it's a position that has a pretty high injury rate,
Starting point is 01:11:06 but we know he'll get targets if he's active. He's been a very good receiving tight end who's generated targets when he plays. I think he probably will rise over the summer as people kind of realize that it was just that he was banged up last year. He'd be the safest bet for me to get really solid targets in the middle rounds. I'm worried about calling Evan Ingram safe because we know that there's the injury track record with him, but there is a lot of upside, and he's probably going to end up going right after Austin Hooper this year. So if you miss on Hooper and you don't have that safe tight end,
Starting point is 01:11:36 you've got somebody that's almost the exact opposite of that, not exactly safe, but certainly huge upside, risk-reward potential withan ingram in that offense with jason garrett later on this week we'll be back with another podcast i'll give you some nice modest price family vacation destinations and we'll also help you dominate your fantasy let's answer some more emails let's do it get into the week so keep sending in those emails fantasy football at cbsi.com maybe some tweets along the way as well. Hashtag ask FFT. Hashtag SFFT. We haven't used that in a long time.
Starting point is 01:12:07 Let's get it going, guys. I appreciate all the help and the dynasty talk. We're going to keep that going as the off season rolls on as well for Ben Gretsch, Ben Schrager. I'm Ben Richard. Thanks for coming out.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.