Fantasy Football Today - 2019 ROOKIE TE EVALUATIONS and Drew Brees is Back! (02/19 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 19, 2020

We're evaluating the 2019 rookie Tight End class today, but first, Drew Brees announced that he's returning to the Saints. Are Brees and Jared Cook Top 10 options for 2020 at their respective positions (2:45)? ... With rookie campaigns in the books, Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson appear to have immense upside for 2020. Which one should you target in the late rounds (8:50)? And is there another 2019 rookie TE with league-winning upside (25:10)? ... Nationals shortstop Trea Turner makes a Fantasy Football bold prediction (33:40) which sparks a Christian McCaffrey vs. Derrick Henry discussion. And we have other news and notes including Greg Olsen to Seattle, Kareem Hunt expecting to re-sign and a Cam Newton update (38:10) ... We finish with a mailbag of dynasty questions sent in via Twitter using the #AskFFT hashtag (44:05) Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg For more fantasy football coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Ian. All right, lazy bones. Time to get your butts in motion. Time to tighten those glutes. Get your summer bubble popping. Time to make people check you out while you twerk. We're talking tight ends on today's episode of Fantasy Football Today. Heath, what's your favorite tight end exercise?

Something to really, you know, get yourself into shape. Squats. Yeah, squats are really fun. Ben, do you have a favorite tight end exercise? I'm a big hip thrust guy. I love the isosceles triangle lift, which is where I take a slice of pizza and I lift it up toward my mouth and I eat it while I'm sitting on the couch. I don't know how that really helps my glutes,

but it does help me focus a little bit more on tight ends. We're going to talk about tight ends. Greg Olson's got a new address. And we're going to dig deep into the 2019 tight end class they were rookies last year they'll be second year guys this year and at first when i first saw the topic i i thought to myself this isn't going to be anything worth talking about we're going to get through this quick we need a lot of other stuff to talk about but the more i looked at noah phan and tj hockinson and dawson knox and even caden smith like there there are some tight ends that could play a small to major role in fantasy

in 2020 and i think they're all going to be players that you need to know how you feel about when you evaluate the tight end position and how badly you want to go up and get one of those top five or six tight ends on draft day do you agree do you think that there's some room here for some breakout potential with these guys there is and it seems like there always is with a rookie tight end class they start out pretty weak that second year is when they can have that breakout and we had guys with really hard really high yards per reception no offense being one of them Dawson Knox another so there's a lot a lot of promising things to look for for next year and if you want to wait on a tight end one of them, Dawson Knox another. So there's a lot of promising things to look for for next year.

And if you want to wait on a tight end, one of these second-year tight ends for next year could be the one. Yeah, it's not just first-year tight ends. It's young tight ends in general. A lot of times the second year is not great either. But I think looking at the class, there's one guy I feel pretty confident is going to break out. I would guess a second one breaks out and finishes in the top 15 as well which may not i don't know which one that is and there are there's there i've

got a tight end that we can talk about who was a rookie last year who barely even played in 2019 that could have some interesting fantasy value and we'll spend a minute on him but we gotta spend more than a minute on the big news from the big easy you guys know what it is everybody listening you all know what it is michael thomas is going to be the number one receiver in 2020 drafts because Drew Brees is not retiring. Now, he's got to sign a deal with the Saints first. I mean, small, minor operational detail, right? He's got to go and put his name on the dotted line.

But I know that Michael Thomas' number one fan is right here, Heath Cummings. By the way, Super Bowl champion Heath Cummings. Congrats. Everybody knows who Heath is. I've got my ring, yeah. Ben Schrager isggers here of course a producer extraordinaire and i'm dave richard one of us was a submarine pitcher in college you've got to just figure out who that is and uh all right michael thomas nothing to worry about now right smooth sailing surefire number one wide receiver off the board in fantasy drafts just use ink on that now right yeah and i've got

him like in ppr i've got 10% better than any other wide receiver. So even if Drew Brees wasn't there and it was Teddy Bridgewater, I probably still would have had Michael Thomas as the number one wide receiver. But yeah, this makes him, I think, a legitimate top three pick in fantasy drafts. Could not see taking him at number one. Could understand considering him at two. And he'll definitely have an ADP in the top five. He's going to be the number one wide receiver drafted.

So let's make the not-so-tough assumption that Drew Brees plays for the Saints in 2020. You know that Taysom Hill is probably going to be there, and you know that Taysom Hill is going to take snaps, occasional touchdowns, numbers away from Drew Brees, which kind of sucks. We hate it. No one likes it.

For Kamara, too. That always sucks. Well, we're not talking about him just yet. But Drew Brees, is he a top-ten fantasy quarterback? Would you draft him as such? I would. I think that the Saints often still has a lot of gas left in the tank. I think they add another wide receiver.

There's already rumblings that Antonio Brown could end up getting a real serious look from them. I have a hard time believing that when this draft class is so loaded with wide receivers, they can just go grab a young receiver to play in the slot and just do well with that rather than a 30-plus-year-old nutcase. But I think that there is potential for this offense to do well. Drew Brees played well last year. The reason why he didn't finish as a top five or six fantasy quarterback is because he missed so much time.

So I'm okay with Drew Brees being almost one of those great value quarterbacks on draft day. What say you? He's not in my top 12 right now. I do think it's worth saying he was not just good last year. It was one of the best performances of Drew Brees' career. After he came back from the injury, he played nine games. His 16-game pace was 4,500 yards, 44 touchdowns, and four interceptions. It was absolutely incredible.

I do think there's still a little bit more injury risk because of the age, and if the defense is as good as I expect it's going to be, they're going to run the ball more than the average team. He won't be as efficient as he was last year. He's a borderline starter. If he has a good matchup week one, I'll be fine with drafting him and starting him then. But he's not somebody I'm reaching for, and unfortunately, because of his performance, he'll be fine with drafting him and starting him then but i i he's not somebody i'm reaching for and unfortunately because of his performance he'll be drafted as a top eight

quarterback he'll probably be on my bus he was second in terms of consistency 22 fantasy points or more second most of any quarterback last year he finished the season so strong and yeah i mean i i i think that he's points are valid he He's old. He could get hurt again. Things happen. But I love the Saints offense, and I love how he fits into it, and the fact that you can get him after Dak, after Russell Wilson, after Kyler Murray. And I would take those guys ahead of Drew Brees for sure. They've got more potential.

You don't have to worry so much about injury risk with them as you might with Brees, and you certainly don't have to worry about age or the talent level falling off a cliff with them like you would with drew breeze but there's good value in getting him and you could almost you you could theoretically build a draft strategy around breeze knowing okay i'm just going to get him in round six that's going to be earlier than anybody else takes him i don't think his adp but then that's going to be top six that yeah six would be early you're taking him at the top but thisbacks. But this is you committing to taking Drew Brees, and then you build around that, and you've got five picks before that.

Listen, the plan B, and maybe this is the better way to put it instead of committing to Drew Brees in round six, is I've got a plan in my mind without intentionally drafting Brees that if he's there in round seven or eight or, in Heath's mind, 12, I'm going to take him, and I can spend those early picks on other positions. I like that. I think a good plan to go into the draft, if you're going to think like that, is I'm going to take the most value in round seven or round eight.

Maybe it's Drew Brees. Maybe it's not. Maybe you're in a league where a guy like Kyler falls because people aren't believing the hype. Or maybe you're in round eight and Brees isn't there and you have to go somewhere else. But I wouldn't commit to Brees, but I do think he is a really, really good late round value if he becomes late.

But again, he wasn't a late-round pick last year, and I don't really expect he's going to be a late-round pick this year. I shouldn't have said round six. I think you can almost target him in round seven if you wanted to, and even that might be a little bit too soon. Breeze or Jameis, if you had to pick right now? We're assuming that the Tampa Bay roster is just like it is. Well, we don't know if it's going to be that way

because there's all sorts of stuff flying around about Jameis. I'll take Jameis, regardless. And if Jameis isn't in Tampa Bay, say he's got to fight for a starting job in L.A. with the Chargers. I'm taking Jameis. No matter what. Chargers, yep. You're a big fan of that LASIK vision, Ben.

Okay, I get it. All right, anything to say about Alvin Kamara or Jared Cook here? I mean, it's all systems go for those guys too, right? Jared Cook might still be a thing. So it might be a tie. Maybe. He's still a top 12 tight end right now. Jared Cook was a lot better with Breeze.

We will talk about Jared Cook when we get into the 2019 tight ends. In the meantime, before we get there, and we are going to get there, I want you guys to check out the state of combat podcast for the ultimate preview of the deontay wilder tyson fury fight so this is the second time that these guys are meeting it's going to be awesome they both enter the fight undefeated and as their previous matchup was a thriller it ended in a draw so now they have the chance one of these guys hopefully will win and we don't have another stinking draw and if we do then that means we're going to have wilder fury three but our state state of combat team, Brian Campbell and the crew,

previewing the fight. They've got the latest news. They've got their picks. They've got their best bets. Everything going down for this amazing fight. I can't wait to see it. Wilder versus Fury. Find everything you need to know about it on the State of Combat podcast,

available wherever you downloaded this podcast. Or if you're feeling crazy, go somewhere else where you didn't download this podcast and download it there. I don't know, whatever you want to do. But State of Combat will get you ready for the fight. Let's talk about these rookie tight ends now. And we know that rookie tight ends, I mean, they're not usually studs. They don't put up huge numbers right away. They usually take time to develop. I don't even know why that necessarily is, because I would almost figure that some coaches are so forward-thinking that they see a tight end who's got unique matchup traits, whether it's their 6'6", or they can run a 4'4", or maybe in some cases both of those things.

I don't know why they can't get them going a little bit more, but there is a learning curve when it comes to tight ends, and that second year is usually when they can start to come out of the wide-eyed rookie mode and into, okay, I know what I'm doing, I know where I'm supposed to be, I know what my role is, and I can go and make a play, and hopefully for fantasy managers it's making a play where they can score a touchdown. None of the rookie tight ends last year finished in the top 15. Not a surprise.

I don't think anybody was counting on that when we were drafting fant and hockinson it was done with the idea that they were going to be late picks just to see what happens at the beginning of the year but here's a fun fact mark andrews awesome last year right it was the second year evan ingram third year last year wasn't even that great because he got hurt so much but the year before he was pretty darn great he wasn't bad as a rookie either. Will Disley got off to a great start. It was his second year. Dallas Goddard had the opportunity to play.

It was his second year. They all finished top 12 in fantasy points per game in PPR in 2019. So a lot of young tight ends that made that ascension. And there are some honorable mentions. Tyler Higbee. It was his fourth year. He got off to a great finish. He had a great finish.

He didn't get off to a great start. Jacob Hollister. It was his third year. He got off to a great finish. He had a great finish. He didn't get off to a great start. Jacob Hollister, it was his third year. He finished in the top 15. Darren Waller, fifth year. And he didn't actually play one of the five years. It was basically the only chance he had to go and play regularly. And he had a great year. Mike Kosicki, second year.

He was top 16. So if that's any indication yeah there's a good chance for these tight ends that were rookies last year to step up so let's talk about them and let's start with noah fan who i'm excited about he's my favorite of the bunch uh he was the tight end 14 overall in ppr last year i think he was in non-ppr as well he had 331 yards after catch per pro football focus. 155 of those 331, this is 47% of his yards after catch, came in two games and over five catches. So you remember that touchdown he had against Cleveland?

You remember where he just broke away from a defender and went? He got touched on that play. So that's yards after catch. And then he had a big touchdown against Houston. He had a big start to that game against Houston.ston that's an example of what i was saying where a tight end could get an opportunity you see his skill set and he goes and plays but he just can't keep it up as a rookie or there's something going on there that keeps them so now his 2020 ppr rankings have have this potential built in heath you've got him 11th i've got him 10 jimmy's got health you've got him 12th

in your rankings so he's a top 12 tight end is he worth waiting on like we talked about planning around a strategy with drew breeze do you plan around waiting for a tight end i'm going to pass on kelsey and kittle i'm not going to pay attention to engram or even hunter henry i'm going to wait until the last five rounds of my draft if he's even there. Maybe he won't be there. But Noah Fant's somebody I'm targeting with a late pick. Is that an ideal strategy to keep in mind before your draft even starts? If you don't get Kelsey where you want him or Kittle where you want him, yes, absolutely.

Because you can load up on value and upside at the other positions as well in rounds 6 through 10 and get Fant in the 10th or in the 11th, and he has that huge upside. And if he busts, you stream tight ends. And we talk about tight end matchups every single week, and you can survive streaming tight ends, but Fant is above a streamer for us all in our top 12, and he could dominate this year. We saw with those yards after the catch, with those huge plays, if those keep up, his target share goes up, he could be really good this year. Yeah, there's a lot of exciting guys as possibilities in this class.

Fant and Hawkinson have a different level of pedigree from them and a different level of opportunity. And specifically with Fant, as this team's currently constructed, you've got Cortland Sutton there as the number one wide receiver. You don't have another wide receiver of consequence right now. They're going to change that, but I don't know how much they're going to spend to change that and then really even the pass catching running backs will maybe do a little bit more than they have in the past but there is huge huge target opportunity for fan he has the pedigree he certainly has top five upside

at the position it's going to come down to how soon do you have to take him if he is the number 10 or 11 or 12 tight end off the board, that's probably double-digit rounds. That's beautiful. That's fantastic. That's fantastic. I'm not taking him in the first eight or nine rounds probably. I've got him as a round nine pick in my top 200 rankings. If you're in a 14-round draft, he is one of the last five picks you will make.

If you're deeper than that, he's going to go earlier than that, I would say. I think he's one of those priority tight ends that you look at as more than just a streamer the worst case scenario is he busts to begin the year and you bench him and you find another tight end or you cut him which i don't know if i'm going to be ready to do that say weeks one and weeks two weeks one and two he stinks i don't know if i'm going to be ready to bail on him for somebody else at tight end i think that there's potential that you've got to wait around for. One of my favorite things about Fant is who his new offensive coordinator is. It's Pat Shermer. Pat Shermer has a pretty decent track record, and I wish I had it in front of me. I'm going to do it off the top of my head.

Evan Ingram in New York had some good production, at least on a per-game basis, under Pat Shermer. Kyle Rudolph in Minnesota. Shermer was there for the early parts of Zach good production at least on a per game basis under pat schirmer kyle rudolph in minnesota was schirmer was there for the early parts of zach urtz's career in philly i believe yep one year probably and then i i guess we'd have to go back to schirmer when he was in cleveland and st louis and and how he did with those tight ends was barnage one of his tight ends back in the day with mown? Was that a group? Are you looking that up for me? I'm not sure if Gary Barnage deserves time.

Barnage had a monster year. He had one really good year. That was 2011, 2012. Okay, so was Schirmer on the – was he the head coach? No, I was looking up when Schirmer was in Cleveland. Oh, okay. So we don't know. We'll go.

It might be. I might be off on that one, but I know I'm right about, obviously, Ingram and then Rudolph and then pretty much. Ben Watson and Jordan Cameron were his tight ends. Okay. And how did they do? Cameron was great. Cameron had one really good year.

They were really terrible in 2012. Okay. But it was almost 10 years ago. Yeah. No, I think Shermer is generally viewed as someone who is good for tight ends. They don't have a lot of other people to throw to. This could change a lot if they go land a true number two to go next to Sutton. It'll hurt the upside a little bit.

Looking at 2011, Ben Watson led tight ends with 410 yards and two touchdowns. So it was not when he was in Cleveland. No, Barnage's big year i'm looking up right now 2015 de filippo was the offensive coordinator that was back when mike pettin was the head coach of the browns that's that's a nice stroll down memory lane for browns fans i don't know if there is a good memory lane for browns fans uh drew lock's the quarterback now in denver does that does that matter and before you answer that let me just give you the stats. This is what Drew Locke had with Fant last year, 14 targets in basically, what, three games?

Ten catches, so nice catch rate, 10 out of 14 caught by Fant, 188 yards. That's 18.8 yards per catch. That's pretty darn good. One touchdown. That was the Houston game, I believe. A lot of those numbers came in the Houston game with Drew Locke. So it's a nice completion percentage, not a ton of targets.

What can we make of this? Is that something that slows you down a little bit about pushing Noah Fant up on your draft board higher than he needs to be? I'm raising the roof here on the podcast. I was just pushing my heads aside. You guys are looking at each other like I'm crazy. I'm sorry. It's too early in Drew Locke's career to know if it's a negative. It could absolutely be a positive because if he improves as a passer and they don't have great other options

you look last year there was also kind of a weird situation where Jeff Hireman also had nine targets from the tight end position like they targeted multiple tight ends I would guess as Fant develops that will happen less he'll get a larger share of the tight end shares I don't think you can because of a very very very small sample size, view Locke as a negative yet. Jared Cook or Noah Fant? Jared Cook. Fant.

I'm into Fant's upside a little bit more than Cook's. I think Cook is one of those like, all right, I missed on all the stud tight ends and all the pretty high upside tight ends. I'm going to take a guy who can get me off to maybe a decent start to begin the year. I agree. But for whatever reason, Cook had a ton of upside in the second half of last season he was outstanding yeah he's he is a year older but at the same time it's the same offense and if they don't go out and add a weapon he could be an attractive late round option the thing was he didn't get the targets last year like it was just that he scored a bunch of touchdowns

and averaged 16 yards per right which he had never done before in his career. So, yes, Jared Cook two years in a row now has been a very good fantasy tight end. That's true. I have to rank him in my top 12 going into this year. But I don't know that really last year looks like he has all that much upside. It felt like every week Jared Cook would catch a pass for 40 yards. And then he had a decent shot at scoring. So I think that there's a chance of that,

especially if you said it, Ben, they don't add anybody else. They don't draft a wide receiver. They don't sign AB or anything like we're talking about. And literally their second wide receiver is still the hybrid of Ted Ginn and Traquan Smith. And if that happens,

then all the power to Jared Cook. He should end up having a good year, but I still like fans upside a little bit more let's talk about TJ Hawkinson that was the other first round rookie tight end from the 2019 class man his first game against Arizona just set my eyeballs on fire he was targeted a ton he got a lot of work he scored he was awesome and he looked like the guy that like we had heard all the reports about t.j. hockinson and how he was going to be a huge factor in this offense and i remember talking about drafting t.j. hockinson with a late pick you didn't need to start him in week one you just put him on your bench and see what happens there were a few leagues where i had waller and Hawkinson. And after the first week of the season, I felt like a billionaire,

like a fantasy football billionaire where I didn't actually have even like $20, but I did have two tight ends that could be good. And then Hawkinson just like basically disappeared. And it was frustrating, and it was strange, and it was another thing that maybe you just chalk up to rookie tight ends not being there he finishes the number 31 tight end in ppr 32 and non-ppr but he's he's right he's a top 12 tight end for me jamie and heath are not quite as on board with tj hawkinson but i'm thinking that the lions aren't going to add another receiver to their offense i don't know

what's going to happen with their run game, whether they add another running back or not. I think they're more concerned about the offensive line. And I could see TJ Hawkinson still being a good red zone weapon. And don't forget, he had his opportunities. He had three end zone targets that either went off his hands or called back or whatever. He had chances in his rookie year. I think there's potential for

him and you can draft him after noah phan i'm on board with that but i think he's somebody who could end up being a good one of your final three or four picks in fantasy drafts i would be very scared to have him as my only tight end next year because the guy was the worst tight end in terms of how many points he got per target this year he had more opportunity than you think and he wasn't inside the top 30 tight ends in red zone targets so i know we have these memorable tj hodgkinson end zone drops but he just wasn't used that much in the red zone now who knows maybe a full year stafford and in his second year he could break out but it scares me that his one huge game was against Arizona, who we all saw was very prone to the big game against tight end.

He finished the year at 6.2 yards per target, which was like two and a half yards worse than Noah Fant and one of the worst marks amongst rookie wide receivers. The interesting thing is before Matthew Stafford got hurt, he was at 7.8 yards per target, which would have been the second best mark amongst rookie tight ends. And his targets, he was on pace for 76 before before they went down after staffer went out as well so i do think he's someone that i'd like to view as a possible sleeper that i'd like to have as a second tight

in i do agree with ben that i wouldn't want to like start him week one and have him be the only guy that i have at the position but he's he's got a lot of potential and no floor at all which means that if you draft him he could end up having a couple weeks of zero let's all right so with Noah Fant I was ready to say I'm not dropping him after the first two weeks of the season if Hawkinson gives me two points and four points in the first two weeks of the season I think I might be more inclined to drop him which is why I think you've got to wait till after pick 100 to even think about getting him and i'm sure you guys are thinking it's more like pick 120 when you'd want to go and draft noah hawkinson he's got to be a double digit round

pick for noah hawkinson noah hawkinson i i i'm probably not drafting tj hawkinson like one of our leagues where there's only 12 teams and there's only 13 rounds that you can take someone that's not a kicker or a defense. So I guess, yeah, I'm a little bit lower than you are. I do think that there's still a lot of leagues where he should be drafted. But in our standard format, you've only got 13 non-kickers and defenses on your roster. I don't really want to carry a second tight end. I wish I could combine Noah Fant and TJ Hawkinson into one player. I think I'd get a lot of fantasy points out of that one dude this year. But all right, Hawkinson, if he's got a tough matchup in week one and there are other tight ends that have

easier matchups in week one, I think he's in the streaming line more so than Fant. Yes, definitely. And so if you're drafting Hawkinson, you like the matchups early on in the season, you know what the upside is, that's when you go and take them among the top 12 tight ends. That's what I think. And right now we don't know who his first opponent is going to be. I would assume it's going to be one that would result in the Lions passing because I think they're going to do a lot of passing this year. Yeah.

The hard thing is knowing who's going to be the free space against tight ends before we go on. We didn't know Arizona was going to be the free space against tight ends before we go on? We didn't know Arizona was going to be the free space against tight ends last year. We don't let that specific of matchup-based information, I don't think we're probably going to have about tight ends before week one. You've got to think about the linebackers and the safeties that they're going to play against and whether or not they're big or small. And it was Hawkinson who got the first bite of the apple against Arizona,

and he had a big game against them and kind of set the tone for the Cardinals' defense against tight ends all season long so you guys are going to be on team jared cook ahead of hockinson right yes all right so rank these four for me i'll take hockinson ahead of cook for now let's see what the schedule looks like in april disley gosicki johnny smith tj hockinson well disley just got a bad thing happen to him with the Greg Olsen signing. All right, so take him out and put Olsen in. Take him out and put Olsen in. So Olsen, Hawkinson.

I wanted to go with younger tight ends. That's why. Olsen, Hawkinson. Okay. And who else? Olsen, Hawkinson, Gusecki, Jonu Smith. Because Delaney Walker is still currently on the Titans, I will put Johnnie last.

I'll go Olson, Hawkinson, Gusecki, Johnnie. And I like Gusecki, Olson, Hawkinson, Johnnie.

Give me Hawkinson first, Gusecki second, Johnnie Smith third, Greg Olson last. And it's mostly just about upside with all those guys. That's the thing, though. And we look at upside, and we're talking about all these young tight ends, and I don't want to get too much into the Greg Olson thing.

But you're talking about Greg Olson as the number one tight end for Russell Wilson. I think he has legitimate 2017 Jimmy Graham upside where he scored 10 touchdowns. It's not very likely, and he's probably riskier than these guys, but I don't know that TJ Hawkinson in an offense with Kenny Galladay and Marvin Jones and Stafford and Patricia running things has more upside than Greg Olson does for one year over the course of the rest of his career. Of course, right.

It's a big difference between dynasty and seasonal in that regard. Okay, I'm going to run off a list of names of other rookie tight ends from last year. Let's figure out which one we want to talk about next because I don't know if we need to spend a ton of time on any of them. Dawson Knox, Buffalo. Jace Sternberger, Green Bay.

Foster Moreau in Oakland. Could he still be a thing? Caden Smith with the Giants. Could he still be a thing? Irv Smith with the Vikings. Could he still be a thing? And remember, all three of those guys are like number two tight ends on their own team.

They just got opportunities over the course of the season and then josh oliver with the jacksonville jaguars now the one that i think has probably got the most upside of that whole group is dawson knox so i think we should go to him and then we'll quickly hit on the other guys after that but dawson knox last year with buffalo didn't finish as a great tight end in fantasy he had uh he had four more targets in half of his games and i think you would take that from a rookie tight end in fantasy he had uh he had four more targets in half of his games and i think you would take that from a rookie tight end and and maybe we only use dawson knox as like a streaming tight end a bi-week replacement type of a guy his ppr totals in those eight games with four more targets nine three four two fifteen four four four not so good not so good. Not so good. And so there's already talk in Buffalo about them adding another wide receiver.

John Brown had a good year last year. Cole Beasley had some great moments. I feel like Dawson Knox could get lost in the shuffle and might not even be worth drafting. Yeah, I agree. He led the league with nine drops among tight ends. And he's a guy coming out of college we weren't really that excited about he never scored a touchdown in college I don't think he's a guy that is anything more than an opportunity play I was hoping Buffalo would add a tight end in Greg

Olson and they still may add a tight end in free agency or in the draft but at this point I wouldn't touch Dawson Knox he's got potential right he's got a chance to be a solid passing type of pass game tight end not necessarily a blocker he's more receiver than blocker is what i'm saying the problem is he's a project and his quarterback's a project and they don't throw very much so it's like ben gritch says like yeah we're excited about josh allen in fantasy but we're not excited about what josh allen does for anybody else And so it's just, it's a bad situation for him. And he's also probably like all of these guys from this, like, as soon as we stopped talking about Hawkinson, this turns into a dynasty conversation because none of them are relevant for 2020 on draft day, unless you're getting

talking about really deep leagues or tight end premium leagues where you're drafting two or three tight ends. You're just not drafting any of these guys in a redraft league, but in dynasty. And the one guy who could be different than that is for me not dawson knox it's herb smith if kyle rudolph were to disappear from minnesota oh sure there was there were times at the end of last year where both of them were heavily involved in the passing game at least from a vikings perspective and smith was actually better on a per target basis it was just that rudolph was getting into the end zone so i i do think herb smith rudolph i believe they'd save about three or four million dollars by cutting kyle rudolph this year if rudolph was gone smith would be right in that hawkinson gosicki group

for me as a borderline startable tight end let me let me give you another possibility this might fry your noodle a little bit what if the vikings trade stefan diggs and they move into a two tight end type of an offense where they keep rudolph and they've got irv smith on the field at the same time and now they can really mess with defenses because they've got two i don't want to say both of them are dynamic pass catching tight ends we know rudolph seems to be a lot better in the red zone just by his bulk he's not a downfield threat but irv smith kind of is and if and if digs left the team maybe that would open the door for irv smith to get to 40 catches 50 catches what the the problem i have with that is that's kind of like they had digs last year but they kind of played a two tight

end offense last year irv smith played at least 60 percent of the snaps every game in the second half so he was on the field most of the time. What was his target share in those games though? He averaged almost four targets per game from week nine on. It's just that if he's sharing you're going to need a little bit more than that

especially with the rapport that Rudolph has with Kirk Cousins in the red zone. If he's getting a higher majority of those tight end targets and he's getting the red zone targets then he's getting a higher majority of those tight end targets and he's getting the red zone targets, then yeah, I'm a lot more interesting. But in the second half, he was on pace for 40 catches last year. Okay, so he can get there. It's possible, and I guess theoretically it's possible he can get there

even if Stephon Diggs stays in Minnesota, but no one's going to draft that in a seasonal league. We're all just going to play the waiting game with him in Dynasty. The tight end that I'm most intrigued by, there's two, and the first one is Jay Sternberger in Green Bay. Agreed. I don't know if Jimmy Graham is going to be back with the Packers. And by the end of last year, and I don't have the snap counts in front of me,

Heath, maybe you've got them, but Jay Sternberger was getting on the field for the Packers, even in their playoff run. And I remember him at Texas A&M being just absolutely a a beast on the field he was just way bigger than everybody else and he had some speed to him and I knew that he wasn't going to be able to adjust right away to the NFL level and it was impossible to draft him a year ago but I see upside with him especially with Aaron Rodgers being his quarterback and I know that Aaron Rodgers doesn't necessarily create great tight ends for fantasy.

I mean, Jermichael Finley once upon a time. And, you know, Jimmy Graham had some moments. Usable tight ends, usually usable. I wonder if they see Sternberger as someone who can really complement the rest of the offense and be a nice outlet that gets single coverage because Devontae Adams is drawing so much coverage going his way that they take advantage of that with Sternberger. And maybe if there's a lot of hype about him in training camp in July,

you could see him creep into one of the final rounds on seasonal drafts. Yeah, it's going to take Graham being gone and them adding absolutely nothing because he had one game last year where he played more than 25% of the snaps. It was in the playoffs, but it was still just 44%. I mean, they did not really give us anything last year to make this think that he's anywhere it's got to come down to this offseason yeah but also mercedes lewis was over 40 of the snaps in 11 of the games he was behind him right he's gonna be gone so he was definitely the third option and he was so promising at texas a&m over 17 yards per reception he was great a great prospect

him being a yards per reception guy and if they add no one that would be very attractive if jimmy graham's not there if jimmy graham's still there we're not talking about chase at all josh oliver and jacksonville you look at the jaguars tight ends and there's no one there that gets you even remotely excited for fantasy but jay gruden does have a good track record of utilizing tight ends in his offense it was something i studied when i went back and looked at jay gruden and his tendencies i don't know how long jay gruden is going to be in jacksonville but if he likes to implement a tight end in his offense and they don't add anybody else then oliver could be the guy and i know i know

that jamie really liked josh oliver coming out of san jose state and i think that an opportunity will be there for him to overtake guys like Jeff Swaim to be the top. They're talking about cutting Jeff Swaim too. So that would be really nice. That would, that would help quite a bit. So that's another tight end that could make some headlines in July and be

helpful in fancy Foster Moreau and Caden Smith. Do you guys have anything that you want to say about Foster Moreau or Caden Smith? Those are the two best rookie tight ends on a per game basis last year. Caden Smith was at the top per-game, not 16-game pace. No, Moreau led rookie tight ends in touchdowns. Yes. Yes.

Okay. They both did a great job. It's a lot of touchdowns from Waller. Caden Smith needs Evan Ingram to leave, and Foster Moreau, I don't know what needs to happen to help him out there. Yeah, I mean, it's just Darren Waller. I guess for long-term purposes, Waller's a 27-year-old tight end that's had exactly one full year in the NFL,

so that's not exactly a stable situation in front of him. Moreau's a deep, deep stash that I've got. I had a little bit of interest in coming in. I thought that before Waller became a thing over the summer. Yeah, he could have been the guy in Oakland, sure. As long as Carr's there, those dump downs are going to be available. Yeah, we'll see if Carr still stays there. This offseason for the NFL is going to be pretty crazy.

I don't know if it's as crazy as what's going on in baseball right now with the Astros and their whole scandal, but I know people are drafting their fantasy baseball teams. Have you guys done any fantasy baseball drafts yet? Only a mock. So many. Really? You have? Oh, yeah, of course you do. You do a bunch. I you guys done any fantasy baseball drafts yet? Only a mock. So many. Really? You have?

Oh, yeah. Of course you do. You do. But I haven't done any yet. I'm looking forward to doing my mock draft and my AL only draft. And when I want to prepare for them, what do you think I'm going to do? CBSSports.com? The podcast from CBSSports.com.

The Fantasy Baseball Today podcast with Scott White, Adam Azer, the whole crew. Heath's on there too. Insider Insights from right now until September to get you ready for baseball drafts and then once the season starts, everything that comes with baseball and getting your fantasy team ready. Trey Turner is apparently a baseball

player for Washington. A very good one. Now, when I play fantasy baseball, I'm AL only, so I don't pay any attention whatsoever to the National League. And he's a very good player for the Washington Nationals. Nationals won the World Series last year, for those who may not have known, that might include me. But Trey Turner had a Lombardi trophy replica in his locker in spring training. And our Jim Bowden was there. Bomber, what are we doing? Do we have a clip from this?

Yeah, it's exactly what you're saying, Dave. We had Jim Bowden out in Nationals camp. He's doing a little spring training tour for CBS Sports HQ. And let's take a listen. He caught up with Trey Turner. Okay. All right, so there's a Lombardi trophy over here for fantasy football. Did you win the Nationals League?

I did not. I did not win. I missed the playoffs by one spot, and I'm looking to redeem myself this year. In the way too early draft for football next year, is it McCaffrey, Barkley, Zeke? Tell me if you got the first pick in the draft, where's Trey Turner going? I don't know. I mean, right now, I might be going Derrick Henry right now. That guy was unbelievable the last two months of the season.

So kind of a sleeper pick, but that's tough. McCaffrey and those guys, a lot of miles, a lot of hits. It's a brutal sport. I might have to go with the big man and Derek Henry. That would be a sleeper pick for number one overall, but not for the first round. I think Derek Henry is going to be pretty popular in the first round. What do you think? Is Derek Henry a good number one overall but not for the first round i think derrick henry is going to be pretty popular in the first round what do you think should is derrick henry a good number one overall pick no no it's a lot of miles talk about derrick henry yeah sure christian mccaffrey is the

is the right answer and the only answer for number one and listen trey turner's got uh some tough competition there in washington mech sure there's a big time fantasy football player steven strasburg plays you've drafted with these guys yes and uh so i think that'd be a fun league to play in with those guys okay so mcafree and derrick henry have something in common i'm just going to get to this real quick and then we'll talk about greg olson and what he means to seattle um both of them had over 400 touches last year and we've talked about that number 400 for over a decade on this podcast watch out for the guy the curse of 400 but they came a little bit differently so i don't know if we can really judge them the same way derrick henry between the regular season and the playoffs

i think his number was 409 and the majority of them were carries whereas christian mccaffrey i think his number was 403 yep and he had over 100 catches last year. So I think you actually feel great about Christian McCaffrey over Derrick Henry in terms of just how healthy they'll be coming into the season and whether or not they could take a couple of extra hits that wear them down a little bit sooner. But we asked Derrick Henry about that at Radio Row a couple weeks back when he was in South Florida for the Super Bowl, and he was ready to play a 16-game season.

He was like, you know, I'll suit up right now and play. Of course he is, but we know the risk of that huge workload. So it is a lot scarier to have 400-plus touches, and most of them are carries up the middle, compared to McCaffrey being used 100-plus catches and not even getting 300 carries. It's going to be as simple as look at the size of the guys that are hitting you. Like Christian McCaffrey gets hit by a lot more safeties and corners.

Of the defensive backs, right, because all those plays and catches, they run to the outside. And by the way, this new offense that's going to come in to Carolina, it's what LSU ran last year. There's a lot of spread, scheme plays, a lot of quick passing. It's going to be really good for Christian McCaffrey. Just think about what Clyde Edwards-Alaire did in that LSU offense, and now it's going to be McCaffrey starting to do it.

He might have just as good of a year in 2020 as he did in 2019. So let's give Trey Turner the advice he needs. If he has to have Derrick Henry because he loves the way that he plays and he has the number one pick, where should he trade from number one to so he can get Derrick Henry? Totally depends on where Derrick Henry is playing. If he's back on the Tennessee Titans, then I think you trade back to number seven or eight if you want to guarantee you get him.

I probably wouldn't take him until 11 or 12, but somebody else might take him before then. So if he's on a different team besides Tennessee, then you just need to get over wanting to have Derrick Henry. Well, it depends on the team. There could still be a team with a good offensive line. There's not, in my opinion, I don't believe there's a team that he could go to that has both the offensive line

and the desire to run the ball that often. I think it will be worse for Derrick Henry if he leaves Tennessee. I think if it's a team that gets, if you get Derrick Henry, you've got to have your mindset be like what Tennessee's was, which is we're going to run this guy like crazy and have him pulverize defensive players so we'll see but i i agree with you heath i think it's going to be tennessee where he goes

greg olson's going to seattle one year seven million dollar deal to be russell wilson's top tight end maybe we think uh is greg olsen draft able yeah i don't think they give him seven million dollars to be a backup to will disley so i expect he's going to be the lead tight end in seattle i wrote about on cbs sports.com kind of where i came out on the projections i'll give those numbers now you can read the story if you want more of the process i've got him at 48 catches, 555 yards, and just over five touchdowns. That puts him at number 11 in my tight end rankings, right behind Jared Cook, actually. I do think he has the upside of like a Jimmy Graham, we mentioned that from 2017, or even a Jared Cook season last year, where Russell Wilson could get his way. They could throw the ball just a little bit more.

He could throw 40 touchdown passes and 10 of them could go to Olsen. So I think there's more upside than you would think for a 35-year-old tight end. But he's also missed 18 games over the past three seasons. There's significant injury risk. And he hasn't been particularly good over the last three seasons when he has played. This is the best quarterback he's ever played with. 102 targets to tight ends in Seattle last year. The year before that, it was only 72. But the year before that it was only 72 but the year before that they only threw 420 passes so the

percentage wise it was about the same sure uh what was it in 2017 with jimmy graham it was his last year with the seahawks they had 133 targets i should probably have done the the math to see what percentage of targets actually went to 555 that season yeah a lot of fives there so i so that's right around 50 30 right somewhere around that range somewhere right under that right yeah between 130 133 over 555 i'm trying to do the math between 20 and 25 okay so not quite 30 and i don't think it's going to get to 30 at all because greg ol's there. I think he's more of a late round guy. Ben, I'm sure you agree that definitely if he's got a good matchup in week one, you stream Greg Olson to begin the year.

Other news and notes. Kareem Hunt expects to stay with Cleveland. That's going to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler. He's a restricted free agent. I don't see why the Browns would just let him go. Arizona re-signs DJ Humphreys. Three-year deal, 45 million bucks. It's not a bad price tag for a left tackle.

DJ Humphries isn't exactly a world-beater. No, that's the thing. I generally think continuity on the offensive line is more important than just about anything. How excited do you get about the Cardinals bringing back one of their members of their offensive line?

Yeah, it helps for continuity. I really don't know. For all I know, they are going to draft a left tackle and they just flip Humphreys to the right side. They could certainly do that too, but they obviously liked what they got out of him. They're going to use him again in 2020.

Cam Newton expected to be cleared for football activities in March. That's according to The Athletic, who says that the Panthers expect him to be cleared for those activities. We'll see what happens with Cam Newton. There's already talk linking him to the L.A. Chargers. Chargers want to make a splash moving to their new stadium. They're not going to play in the soccer stadium anymore. So having a good quarterback like Cam Newton to replace Phillip Rivers

could be something that they'd want to do. I just want to see Cam Newton healthy first. Then we get him back on the field. He does have top, goodness, he's got like top five fantasy quarterback potential if he's playing like his old self. It's just a matter of whether or not he actually can do that. And then Joe Burrow says he has leverage with the Bengals. Bengals have the number one overall pick.

Burrow expected to be the number one overall pick. He's saying, quote, the Bengals have their process and I have my process. And there's starting to be a gathering of smoke about Burrow maybe not wanting to go to Cincinnati and thinking about pulling an Eli Manning which is it's a little bit odd he's from Ohio but I think he understands what the Bengals franchise has been and what their offensive line looks like I don't know if it's necessarily that as much as it is just the franchise has run a lot differently than a lot of other teams in the nfl and the premium on winning might not be as big there as it is with other teams i know that sounds weird and they would never admit to it but certainly it's a it's more of a family-run

business than it is like a like what the patriots have or what the eagles have where winning is just absolutely made a priority and they spend whatever the... The Panthers are now one of those teams where winning is just the ultimate priority. And in Cincinnati, of course, they want to win. But, I mean, you guys have been around long enough to know that Cincinnati doesn't win all too often. They make the playoffs. I think four straight years they made the playoffs under Marvin Lewis, and all four years they bowed out

in the first round. So what's the point of even making the playoffs if that's going to be the case? Burrow is dynamic. He's going to be an awesome quarterback in the nfl i don't see the bengals necessarily passing on him for tua or anything like that i don't think and i don't think they'll get bullied into not taking burrow no no you take him and like i wonder what does it take in addition to cam newton and the panthers first round pick to get the bingles first round pick one more first oh man i'd ask for the moon but that's just me well yeah because i and i don't

know what i'm getting with cam newton right am i getting a band-aid for four games two seasons i don't know and i i would need uh i would need an absolute haul because i i think burrow is pretty close to as clean of a prospect as you're going to find at the quarterback position this year, over the last few years. The limited track record is a little bit scary. I know, but he really was fantastic last year. And a lot of things went right for him, including offensive line. He had the best offensive line in the nation.

And Cincinnati is going to get back their first-round pick from last year. He'll play left tackle. That line did improve a little bit as the season went on they figured out how to use joe mix in the right way i think there's some potential long term and you put joe burrow in that spot i think he'll be good so we'll see what happens there and we've talked on this podcast before about joe burrow potentially being draftable in redraft leagues where is he in dynasty drafts um i like i haven't put the rookies in but i guess you're gonna see him in the mid for me he'll be just outside the top 12 by adp assuming that he's drafted number one and the hype train has nothing to stop it yeah he'll be a top 10 quarterback um the thing you got to remember for redraft going into next year is

most of the guys that have been rookie quarterbacks that we have been excited about have not been good their first year. If they run, then they can have some fantasy value. Josh Allen ran and had some fantasy. Lamar, Kyler Murray last year had some good fantasy. Burrow can run a little bit. I know he's not known for it. Not like those guys.

No, no, no, no. But he can do the RPOs and work in the red zone and make defenses look silly and score a few touchdowns, maybe three or four touchdowns on the ground. Alright, we've got a couple of tweets to answer and then we're going to get out of here. We're going to stick with

Joe Burrow. This is from by Corey J. Corbin. What is the concern-o-meter that Burrow reverts to the pre-2019 version when he enters the NFL? This is right where you were talking about, Heath. What if he goes back to being what he was in 2018 with LSU, which is not even a 60% completion passer, some good moments here and there.

What if he ends up being that? Is there concern for that? Is that something that would keep him from being a top 10 pick in a rookie-only draft? Yeah, especially in a one-quarterback league. I think I'd put the concern at 6.5. I'm not quite as sold as you. I think the upside with him is enormous,

especially if A.J. Green's there. You could be really excited about the upside, and that could be the reason that you draft him. But if you're asking what's the concern, that he is a little bit of a bust in his very first year as a passer better than 50 chances yeah i'm the same way i mean you look at the guys who have had one really good college season mitch trubisky i knew you were gonna go there those are the first two names that come up every time but can't bring them up but cam newton and cam of the three obviously a fantasy stud,

but the other two, a little scary. So I would put it at a seven. Does it mean anything to you that Burrow at least played two full seasons as a starter? And then he also even had a couple of extra moments here and there at Ohio State, whereas Trubisky and Sanchez, they really only played like a dozen games in college,

and then they were off to the pros. I don't think it does much to me. That LSU offense from 2018 was nothing. They ran the ball a lot. It was so different. It was so different from 2019. And it was a totally different offense, too. They completely changed everything.

And it worked. And they found a system that Brady was really good at. I almost wonder if the Bengals have to adopt that system. I would think that Zach Taylor would be smart enough to do something like that. I'm giving them all that type of credit. I think that they would. I'm excited about Joe Burrow. I think he's going to be very good at the next level.

From SPJ63, is Paris Campbell someone to hold in a 12-team PPR dynasty or someone to use to trade up in the rookie draft this year? I don't know if i'm the right guy to ask about this because i am a big time paris campbell fan as heath will tell you he took me for a ride in our dynasty rookie only draft with a trade so that i could get paris campbell on my team so i i think i'll answer last on this one he if you can go first um yeah i don't think he has any less upside than he did when we were getting excited about him before last year.

It was a rookie year that was full of injuries and bad quarterback play and a little bit of confusion with the offense. I don't want to sell him now when his value has dropped as much as it has. I'm just going to ride it out. I'm the exact same way. And he could have a different quarterback, which would help him. But it's not like he had the opportunities last year where it matters. That was the exact same way. And he could have a different quarterback, which would help him. But it's not like he had the opportunities last year where it matters. That was the wrong answer.

What I should have said was, no, what you should have done was sold him before his rookie season. Sure. Sold him to me, right? Because I was one of those guys that was high on Paris Campbell. I agree with both of you. I think now's the time to just hang on to Paris Campbell, see what happens. I'm sure there's going to be good news about him, assuming he's healthy

out of training camp this year. And if the colts upgrade a quarterback and there's already talk about philip rivers maybe being that guy for them because he's got this relationship with frank reich and nick sirianni that's one of the assistants there in indianapolis that would be good for paris campbell i think he's got a lot of potential so i'm happy to have him in dynasty i am holding on to him okay that's going to do it for this week's edition or this day's edition are we done for the week ben we've got two more podcasts what the hell am i talking about then all right so done for today we're done talking about rookie tight ends what's coming up later this week tomorrow we're going early 2020 sleepers so that's going to be a really fun episode

jamie is really deep in his sleeper talks already all right he's going to come with some big names and then a separate xfl podcast we're going to preview xfl week three emory hunt's one of our favorite guests rj white from our nfl and xfl writer with the xfl oh he's been on fire with his picks he's going to be on the pod and you know our resident expert ben gretch will be on as well so we've got two more episodes coming this week we're really excited i'm loving the xfl i'm two and oh in our xfl league guys i'm i'm rocking it there and i've got the tampa bay vipers i've got two more episodes coming this week. We're really excited. I'm loving the XFL. I'm 2-0 in our XFL league, guys. I'm rocking it there. I've got the Tampa Bay Vipers.

I've got the Tampa Bay Vipers as my team quarterback, and I'm still 2-0. Heath, how's that team? Which team? Your XFL team. I don't know. You haven't even checked your library? I have no idea. I think I played Heath one of the weeks, and that might be why I'm 2-0.

All right. For producers, Deb and Andrew Bommer. For producer, Ben Schrager. For Super Bowl Bowl champion Heath Cummings, I'm Dave Richard. This has been an Awkward Close. Thanks for coming out. For a limited time, switch to Shopify point of sale and you could save up to 20% and improve your bottom line. We're so serious about savings, we could save up to 20% and improve your bottom line. We're so serious about savings, we've made this ad 20% shorter.

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