Fantasy Football Today - 2019 ROOKIE WR EVALUATIONS! Are These Guys Future Superstars? (02/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 18, 2020

It was a very solid season for rookie WRs, even though many of the top ones were on run-heavy offenses. We'll give an overall evaluation of the 2019 WR class and then some Twitter polls! Which of the top rookie WRs should be drafted first in a PPR league (3:30)? Which of the second-tier rookie WRs should be drafted first (15:35)? ... More questions about this class (24:00): Most 2020 upside, most long-term upside, most bust potential, who could come out of nowhere to be productive in 2020? We're covering the obvious names but also guys like J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Diontae Johnson and Preston Williams ... News and notes (31:00) including what Tyrod Taylor would mean for the LAC offense, the latest on the ARI backfield, a secondary that could get a lot worse and more ... Your emails at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Castbox and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @YardsPerGretch, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos For more fantasy football coverage from CBS Sports, visit https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/ To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. This 2019 rookie wide receiver class gave us five wide receivers that finished in the top 33 in non-PPR and top 37 in PPR. Five of the top 37. That's pretty good. Oddly enough, it did not include the two players who were drafted in the first round in the NFL draft, which would be Nikhil Harry and Marquise Brown. Welcome, everybody, to Fantasy Football today. We are recapping the 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers. It was a really strong year for those guys. I am Adam Azer with Jamie Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Ben Gretsch. And we will get to your emails a little bit later.

What's going on guys? How about those Rookie Wide Receivers, Ben? Pretty good season, huh? Yeah, I think one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in several years. I mean, I think you can go back to 2014, which was kind of the class that made everyone else think from 2015, 16, 17, that every other class could be a lot better than what it was. And we finally saw that in 2019 where we saw that type of 2014 production years later. Jamie, Heath, your thoughts, your overall thoughts. By the way, we have a lot of news and

notes to get to as well, including what a Tyrod Taylor-led team could look like in Los Angeles. What were your thoughts, guys, on the rookie wide receivers? Yeah, I mean, the obvious part was how good the good rookie wide receivers were, but the depth of this class, pretty remarkable. 16 different receivers earned at least 40 targets. 10 of them were over 8 yards per target, which is definitively good. So I think it's not just those guys that finished high in terms of fantasy points. There are a lot of wide receivers that are good by low candidates in terms of dynasty. Your level of disrespect to one of the rookie wide receivers is unfounded. Mine?

Yours. What did I do? Read off the list of rookie wide receivers that you have in your notes. Where in my notes? Wide receiver questions. 2019 rookie wide receivers. You made a list for yourself.

Go ahead, read the list. What are you doing reading my notes? You never read my notes. I was curious. Marquise Brown, Nikhil Harry, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, McColl Hard Brown, McKeel Harry, Debo Samuel, AJ Brown, McCall Harmon, JJ Arcega,

Whiteside, Paris Campbell, Andy Isabella, DK Metcalf, Deontay Johnson, Jalen Hurd, Terry McLaurin, Miles Boykin, Akeem Butler, Gary Jennings Jr., Riley Ridley, Hunter Renfro, Darius Slayton, Keyshawn Johnson, Travis Fulgham, Jawan Winfrey, Marcus Green, Kelvin Harmon, Scott Miller, Quinton Bell, Joshua Sua, Terry Godwin, Dylan Mitchell, and BC Johnson. Would either of you like to point out who he left out?

I wasn't really listening to him. That was a lot of names. Yes. He left out Preston Williams. Level of disrespect is unbelievable. Wow. That's a bad job. Sorry about that.

Yeah, that is a bad job. I was looking at the draft. Not only did I check your notes, I also did a quick search to see if you have Preston Williams there. You have an email question about Preston Williams. So you didn't even read the question that was posed to you, and then you left out Preston Williams when talking about the rookie wide receiver. You guys are free to bring up whoever you want.

I didn't leave anyone out. We haven't even started talking about them. You have a whole list. You have a whole list. You have Travis. I can't even pronounce the last name in here. Jawan Winfrey in here. He's favorite receiver of all time,

Akeem Butler in here. Yeah. But you left out Preston Williams. Look, I didn't leave them out. I'm just putting their final reference. Okay, so I did a couple of Twitter polls. Let's see what the results say. Does Preston Williams play in the NFL?

Is that one? Yeah. Do you have to be drafted by an NFL team to be considered a rookie? All right. Which of these wide receivers should be drafted first in a PPR league? DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Debo Samuel, or Terry McLaurin? Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Debo, or Terry McLaurin? Heath, who do you think should be drafted first?

I've gone back and forth on this a lot already, and I think I probably will more, but right now I'll say Terry McLaurin. I think he has the most opportunity for growth in terms of targets. There's not really a lot of competition there. I expect Dwayne Haskins to be better as a passer. I'm a little bit more concerned about the other guys in terms of what share and how many targets are available on their team. Wow. who ben thinks it is obvious i was gonna ask a question how many burner accounts has ben have to vote multiple times i mean yeah i did i did a campaigning through through all my box and and and really voted heavily for aj brown i just yeah i genuinely think that's crazy like i i think aj Brown was way better than Terry McLaurin

he was a way better prospect coming in much better breakout age much better um college production even playing with really good teammates like DK Metcalf who was also in this poll and I think he's he's like as close as you can get to a can't miss superstar after one year well I okay we're we're not talking about a dynasty league, right? Yeah. So we're just talking about 2020 and I just don't know like what's going to change on the Titans.

That's going to lead to AJ Brown getting more than maybe a hundred targets because we know he's not going to average 12.5 yards per target. He's probably going to lose 25% of that. If he's over 10, it will be spectacular. And so he needs to see a huge increase in the target volume. And I don't know that Tennessee's offense is going to change in really any way going into 2020. Well, I think the hope would be 16 games of Tannehill

as opposed to, what do you have, nine? Right. But I don't think his target share was, it was bigger, but it wasn't huge in the second half either. No, but they showed a little bit more trust in their passing game as opposed to what they showed with Mariota. And the hope would be is that if you're going to pay Ryan Tannehill to whatever level they're paying him,

franchise tag or long-term deal, that you're paying him with the chance to build off what he did, not just necessarily manage a lot of the game as we saw from time to time. I'm also expecting the run game to take a little bit of a step back, whether that's, you know, Derek Henry getting hurt or just not being as successful. So, I mean, for me, it's A.J. Brown too. I just think that, you know, I don't have the same love that Ben does,

but I see why he loves him. And I do think there's the chance for him to maybe not replicate his numbers exactly, but to be in a similar range for what he was able to do. I just don't know if Terry McLaurin, like Ben said, people viewed him as a blocker. I mean, it was such a disrespect to what he was as a college player, but I just don't know if he has the ability to take a huge leap forward. I think kind of what we saw is the type of player that maybe he could be, but consistently I don't know if that's going to be the case.

Like on a per-game basis last year in terms of fantasy production, he was better than A.J. Brown. Oh, he was a monster. Right. There were some extremely dominant performances, but is that sustainable? Yeah, I know. Seriously, I hate when you throw that stuff out there when it is so obviously misleading because A.J. Brown was the number three wide receiver in Ryan Tannehill's 10 starts in

non-PPR. You would think he was number seven in PPR. You can't say that, Heath. You're misleading the public. Oh, I can say it. I just did. The partial sample size that we know is not sustainable in terms of efficiency isn't necessarily more predictive than the per-game averages from last year. Yes, A.J. Brown was incredible, and he's very good, and I like him. This is not negative about A.J. Brown at all.

I don't know what his growth potential is when he's going to have to increase his targets by 25% just to match what he did last year. But if you look at his snap shares, all throughout September, he played in the 40% range. All throughout October, he was right around 60%. He first hit what you could consider a full-time snap share in Week 10 when Corey Davis missed a game. And then they had, I believe, a bye Week 11. And from then on, he was believe, a bye week 11. And from then on, he was essentially the number one wide receiver. It was a different type of season for him than Terry McLaurin, who was the full-time wide receiver one from week one. So you can't

really look at per game averages, in my opinion, when comparing these guys. Terry McLaurin, to me, very clearly the number two guy on this poll. I'm not trying to attack him too much. I do agree with a lot of the points he's made. And I do think he'll have a very good career but i i think when we're trying to compare these two guys we need to look he's right that the production in the late season was very efficient it's going to be hard to sustain that but we also need to look at that more closely than the early part of the season because his role changed throughout the year much like dj moore's did in his first season. In the second season, we actually saw DJ Moore play a full season. Terry McLaurin didn't – I mean, it didn't have to change

because he started as a starter from week one. Well, he also had the quarterback shuffle scenario, which was worse than what A.J. Brown had. I think the thing with the Washington offense comparatively to the Tennessee offense, Tennessee offense is probably going to be the same, barring the two big pieces leaving. Right.

If they bring back Tannehill and Henry, it's almost going to be a replica of 2019. That's what I'm projecting, yes. But for Washington, though, we could see another couple of pass catchers added. I mean, their tight end situation is almost wiped out because who knows what's happening with jordan reed and verne davis retired right so is it mclaurin steve sims and trey quinn you know i mean is that what the receiving court looks like right i don't think so i would imagine that that's something that has to be completely retooled so does mclaurin stay the

same as you know the i think he's going to be the number one guy it'd be shocking that they would add somebody because free agency doesn't have that type of star power unless they get an Amari Cooper or Aja Green. I doubt those guys go there. And then is there a rookie coming in and does a Terry McLaurin-like performance or is it just another complimentary piece? So that I think is the big part of this with McLaurin

is what's the next thing for this Washington office? Because yes, Dwayne Haskins should be better. But to what degree is Terry McLaurin maybe worse? Not because of him as a player, just because of what the situation is. McLaurin splits, by the way, seven games before Dwayne Haskins took over as a starting quarterback. Seven games with Haskins as a starting quarterback. Haskins played a little bit in those first seven games. But just looking at starts versus non-starts, the catches to yards are very similar.

I think he had five touchdown catches, though, before Haskins took over, and only two with Dwayne Haskins. It's small sample size, obviously. I think one thing that's pretty interesting about these rookie wide receivers is that, unfortunately, a lot of them are on offenses

that just don't throw the ball. Four prominent rookie wide receivers were on teams that finished in the bottom five in pass attempts. That would be McLaurin, Debo Samuel, A.J. Brown, and Marquise Brown. I've given this stat before, but in the last five seasons, there's only been one wide receiver who's finished

top 12 in PPR on an offense that was in the bottom five in pass attempts. That was Doug Baldwin. It was five seasons ago. So it's a hard thing to do. And Tennessee has been in the bottom five in pass attempts four straight seasons. So I hope they don't make it five in a row.

But DK Metcalf is not one of those. I think that's a great point. That's a big point of what I was trying to say is like if that changes and you told me they are going to throw the ball even 525 times this year, then I would agree with Ben completely. I'd much rather have A.J. Brown next year. OK, but Washington was also on that list. I mean, they were a ground and pound team as much as they could be. But D.K. Metcalf's team was not on that list and he actually finished second in the poll. A.J. Brown won it with 42 percent of the vote. D.K. Metcalf, 25.4% of the vote,

followed by Debo Samuel third and then Terry McLaurin fourth. Jamie, quick word on D.K. Metcalf and what you think about him and I guess Debo as well, who, you know, I think he's broken this down. A lot of his production was rushing totals. He led all wide receivers with rushing yards and a lot of his production was two games without George Kittle. But yeah, just let's give a little love to the other two guys on the poll, Metcalf and Debo. I mean, look, Metcalf, as we saw, started to take off toward the middle to the end of the season. You know, you can sort of debate who's the number one receiver going into 2020 for Seattle is going to be Tyler Lockett or Metcalf. I think most of us will still say Lockett based on what he showed us last year and the type

of player that he is and where he'll line up. But I mean, Metcalf certainly puts to rest any of those conversations about, is he just a one-trick pony? Can he only go down the field? He certainly showed that he has a little bit more to offer and picked up his game as the season went on. So I'm excited about him next year. I would actually take him ahead of McLaurin right now, but that's probably just me being in the minority on that one. I just think that he has a little bit of a higher ceiling to get to.

I also think that we're going to see Seattle open up the offense a little bit, which I know is not the conventional thinking, but Russ is starting to complain a little bit, and that's going to matter. I think it's going to carry some weight, especially how he played last season, how I think he wants to be perceived, how he wants to play,

how he wants his offense to go, and Metcalf, I think, is a big reason why. Plus, you have the running back injuries that they're going to be dealing with. For Samuel, it's going to be tough to trust him. I think as anything more than a number three fantasy receiver coming into the season. But again, that sort of speaks to what San Francisco is going to do this offseason. Are they going to bring back Emmanuel Sanders? Are they going to add another piece? If it's Samuel and George Kittle as the top two pass catchers here, I think Kyle Shanahan was great at adapting to what the San Francisco offense was last year their running game was exceptional their defense was phenomenal but we've seen him in the past

he's a coach that likes to throw the ball a little bit not to the extent of some of the play callers that we know that like to open up their offenses but his number one receiver traditionally has been a very high-targeted, successful type of fantasy option. And I hope Deebo Samuel has a chance to get there. Can he be 120 targets? Probably not. Can he get to 110?

I don't know what you have him projected for, Heath. But if he could be in that 100 to 110 range, then maybe what we saw from McLaurin this year, maybe a DK Metcalf this year, maybe that's the type of fantasy numbers he can get different way that he'll get there but maybe that type of fantasy production so i think he's going to be a guy that sort of is in your lineup when we got a lineup next week you know not a consistent fantasy producer but somebody that you can rely on a

few times throughout the season yeah i think like metcalf surprised me and that he was that good as a rookie because he came into last year and we thought well he, he's probably got more upside than any of these guys. So what he could be if he learned how to play wide receiver, he'd be one of the best receivers in the league. And he took that big first step as a rookie. And I think that makes you more excited about what he could be long term. I just don't know. I didn't see enough in terms of volume from Samuel to know how much different was last year from Dante Pettis. Because Dante Pettis was phenomenal for about a six or seven game stretch.

And I think Samuel's a better prospect and better wide receiver, but I also expect they're going to add somebody. Yeah, I would agree. Unless, again, Sanders comes back. But the difference, I think, would be the quarterback play. Pettis did all of his stuff with Mullen and Beathard, whereas at least Debo had Jimmy Garoppolo running the show. We got more Twitter polls.

We got a lot more rookie wide receivers to talk about, including Preston Williams. Maybe that's up to Jamie Heath and Ben. We're going to take a quick break here on fantasy football today. We'll be right back. Metro links and cross links are reminding everyone to be careful as Eglinton crosstown LRT train testing is in progress. Please be alert as trains can pass at any time on the tracks. Remember to follow all traffic signals. Be

careful along our tracks and only make left turns where it's safe to do so. Be alert, be aware, and stay safe. All right, back to the wide receivers. Our second Twitter poll. Let's assume Sammy Watkins is not on Kansas City next season, a probable boost for Hardman. Which of these wide receivers should be drafted first in a PPR league? Marquise Brown, Nikhil Harry, Mikko Hardman, or Darius Slayton? Marquise Brown, Nikhil Harry, Mikko Hardman, Darius Slayton? Marquise Brown, Nicole Hardman, or Nikhil Harry,

Nicole Hardman, excuse me, Darius Slayton. This is assuming Sammy Watkins is not back with Kansas City. Ben, Marquise Brown won the Twitter poll, followed by Nicole Hardman, followed by Darius Slayton. They all had 24% to 37% of the vote. Nikhil Harry, only 8%. Where would you have voted? I love that that screenshot that we have up on the screen

has somebody whoever took that voted for mccall hardman because they were correct that's who i voted for as well uh heath will probably tell you that his yards per target also needs to to regress it was extremely high it was even higher than aj browns it just like didn't qualify because he didn't have enough targets uh but what we saw from mccall hardman this year kind of similar to i guess what we saw from debo samuel just on on fewer opportunities because they have so many options in that offense but kate the city wanted to get the ball in his hands they did it a number of ways um and particularly he was very efficient down the field and in the deep um the deep passing game and had

a number of long touchdowns and we saw that continue into the postseason even though he wasn't playing a ton he was still kind of a role player they made him a player like they think he can be a game-breaking player that's a really good sign if sammy walkins is not on this offense next year we know that his quarterback will be patrick mahomes um yes his efficiency would definitely come down from 13 plus yards per target but i would absolutely take nicole Hardman over the rest of these guys just on the sheer upside and explosive potential in the offense that he's in. Yeah, I think the last couple of words that Ben said are the most important

in the offense that he's in, because I think Marquise Brown has enormous upside and explosive ability. I just don't know if he does with 75 targets in a season. I don't know why Baltimore would change too much of what they did. They'll throw a little bit more. But if Sammy Watkins was gone, I would definitely have Hardman ahead of Marquise Brown. And probably in, like, I think Hardman versus Debo Samuel would be really interesting in that type of situation. Yeah, it's hard to go against a receiver in a Patrick Mahomes offense.

And I think a lot of people look at Sammy Watkins this past year and probably think, why would I want that? Because that's the role he would assume. Go back two years ago to what Sammy Watkins was in this offense, and I think that's the better indication. Or the playoffs. Or the playoffs, that's fair. And I think the big reason why is you have a healthy Mahomes because Mahomes was dealing with an ankle injury,

then missed two games with a knee injury, and then it was kind of just not the same until we saw toward the end of the season when I think he was finally healthy. But that's, I think, the hope is that that's what you're getting. The thing about Marquise Brown is also we saw at the end of the season, the playoff game, he was a superstar when they had the throw. And so, you know, maybe they do open up the offense a little bit more and let the MVP play a little bit more as a passer,

not necessarily just this ball control run offense, and he's just having to make spectacular plays with his legs as well as what he's able to do as a passer, not necessarily just this ball control run offense, and he's just having to make spectacular plays with his legs as well as what he's able to do as a passer. But Marquise Brown was a guy that played through this foot injury for the majority of the season. I was listening to a radio interview with our buddy Dr. David Chow, and he said he was comparing it to Cam Newton, and he said Marquise Brown just played the entire season

with essentially a Liz Frank injury. So maybe he wasn't fully healthy, And hopefully if he is fully healthy, then we could see a little bit more of an explosive player. I do think that, you know, if you put the names back up, Adam, you know, the other guys on this list are certainly interesting as well. Aside from Hardman and Marquise Brown, you know, there's a lot to like about all four of these guys. Slayton is my favorite as a player. I just don't think his opportunities are going to be that great if you have a healthy Sterling Shepard, a healthy Evan Ingram, and a healthy Golden Tate because he's not going to get the targets that he needs.

Yeah, I looked at that because the Giants targets are really hard to figure out. And I looked at that last week and he really needed two of those guys to be out. Even when one of them was out, he didn't have much success or much of a target volume. He needed two of those big three ahead of him to be hurt. So I love Slayton, but I'm not sure he has much chance this year. And Harry could be maybe the best. I mean, obviously, Pedigree puts him there with Marquise Brown based on his draft potential, his draft stock, where he was taken in the first round. But who's the quarterback in New England?

And we don't really know what Nikhil Harry is because missing the start of the season last year, going on IR with the ankle injury, he really didn't get an opportunity. He had one game over five targets in his final seven games that he played, final eight games that he played, and it was week 17 when he had seven. So can we really say Nikhil Harry is a bust? I think it's way

too soon to say that. And if you get Tom Brady back and it's Edelman, Harry, and let's talk about maybe making a run at Austin Hooper or Hunter Henry, if they add that other piece to the offense that makes things open up a little bit, Harry could end up being the best guy there. Probably is going to be the best value because he's going to go last with that group.

So the four names were Marquise Brown, McCole Hardman, Nikhil Harry, and Darius Slayton. Do you think any of them will do better than this? 64 catches, 830 yards, five touchdowns. 64 catches, 830 yards, five touchdowns. That is what Sammy Watkins was on pace for in 2018. He only played 10 games, but it's actually not a little underwhelming. 64 catches, 830 yards, five touchdowns.

I think we'd want one of those guys to do probably more than that, to do better than that. That's all he was on pace for? Yeah, surprisingly. No, no, no. 2018. Yeah, you're using the wrong sample size. You're using one of the games where I think he played like three plays or something that was always taken out of the sports.

All right. Okay. I'm just saying because I know Jamie quoted that a lot last offseason, and it was a different number. It was like almost 1,000 yards or something. Yeah, yeah. He was on paper much more than that. But, yeah, I think Marquise Brown will be better than that next year,

and I think Hardman would be if Watkins was gone. The thing is, Demarcus Robinson most likely is gone. And so, like, you look at what Sammy Watkins did with other guys. If it's Tyreek and then Hardman and then just a distant third receiver. Pringle. Right, right. Then I think you'd see Hardman be better than Sammy has been. There's one guy I think that I don't know if you want to include him in this conversation,

but maybe could be better than all of them in PPR is Hunter Renfro. You know, from what we saw from him at the end of the season, his final seven games, four of those he was, I think, over 16 PPR points. Yeah, I've got him projected over all these guys. One spot at a round. It sort of ties into who the quarterback is there. Is it going to be Derek Carr? Because I think that helps Hunter Renfro.

For sure. Brady, I think, would help Hunter Renfro, just as a guy who clearly loves throwing to slot wide receivers. Or is it somebody that's of a different ilk that would maybe challenge down the field more? But I think Renfro is potentially better than all those guys, including if Hardman loses Sammy Watkins. Reminder to be patient with these wide receivers.

Kenny Galladay in his rookie season, 28 catches, 477 yards, three touchdowns. Chris Godwin, rookie season, 34 catches, 525 yards, one touchdown. They're obviously two premier wide receivers. Now, Ben, what were you going to say? Yeah, I was just going to say that Renfro's probably going to be more of a safer, easier, projectable guy, high catch rate. I think he did have a ton of yards after the catch this past year, a couple of long touchdowns.

They took a couple slants to the house. That's going to regress a little bit. But, yeah, he'd be a safer pick. I would still probably prefer guys like Hardman for the upside. So I got some more wide receiver questions to throw at you. Let me promote a few things really quickly here. Fantasy Baseball today is back in full swing. I thought we were going to have five episodes this week,

but some people wanted to take a holiday vacation. That's fine. So we have four this week. First base, second base, third base, and shortstop previews. But we're basically podcasting five days a week going forward. We have the XFL episode. We're going to do a separate XFL episode that's going to air, I think, on Thursday this week.

So check that one out. And the Fantasy Football Today newsletter. You need to sign up at cbssports.com slash newsletter. Stay up to date with fantasy football content sent straight to your inbox all off-season long. News of the day, podcast content, editorial pieces, prospect profiles

rankings and more cbssports.com slash newsletter all right here we go let me ask you this who which rising sophomore wide receiver has the most 2020 upside of any of them define right like how is this different than the first question about the poll? That was who should be drafted first. It could be different. Who has the most upside? If it's not, that's fine. You can answer the same. AJ Brown. I'll say Metcalf. I'll say Harry.

See? Very different. Who has the most career-long upside? AJ Brown. I'll say Metcalf. Metcalf. Wow, over AJ Brown. I'll say Metcalf. Metcalf. Wow, over AJ Brown. AJ Brown outproduced him 2-1 on the same team in college.

You gotta look at that a little bit. You do have to look at that a little bit. Yes. Okay. Which rising sophomore wide receiver has the most bust potential? Nikhil Harry, probably. But I like him. Is he rising? I don't

know if he even qualifies as a rising wide receiver. What's he rising from? You know what I mean. I guess probably Debo. Debo for sure. Debo, okay. Yeah, I think Harry's going to go late enough. I don't know if he'll be a bust. Which? Well, it depends how you're

qualifying. Rising or upcoming soft, for sure. If you're using him based on what his NFL draft stock is, then he's got a ton of bust potential. Which rising sophomore wide receiver did very little in 2019, but is poised for a big year in 2020?

Nicky Larry. Preston Williams? Yeah. Preston williams was just starting to take off before the acl tear he had 12 and then a 12 ppr game and a 24 ppr game in two of his last three and that was when fitzpatrick was finally entrenched as the starter yeah that's a that's a big part of that is if you look at the splits for davante parker even he was way better when fitzpatrick was the quarterback him and williams were almost identical up until williams injury in terms of like yards per target and then you know parker blew up after williams got hurt yeah and and that's an interesting part with fitzpatrick because he

tends to feature one guy we don't always see with him and it's you know throughout his career from steve johnson brandon marshall you know uh parker you know there are just a ton of guys when he gets because he tends to feature one guy. We don't always see with him, and it's throughout his career, from Steve Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Parker. There are just a ton of guys. When he gets walked in on one, that guy blows up. He's made a lot of guys money. So who will he lock in on if he's the guy for 16 games? And that's the big question, because we know that they're going to be in the market in the NFL draft

for whether it's Tua Tungavailoa or Justin Herbert, as we got the rumor this week that they could be looking at Herbert. But if they do give somebody additional starts, then you have to wonder which of these receivers will benefit. But Williams, just based on the ACL tear, is probably going to go significantly later than Devontae Parker. And if you're just looking for a piece of this Dolphins passing game, he's the one you want to gravitate toward.

And I mentioned him earlier, Deontay Johnson may have done a little too much to qualify, but I think there's a situation if he clearly beats out James Washington and it's a clear 1-2 situation and bends back to his old self, then I think you could see both of those guys be top 30 wide receivers. You mean a 2-3 situation? Juju will be the one. No, I meant Juju and Johnson as a 1-2, kind of like we had with Antonio Brown and Juju as a 1-2. Oh, I'm sorry.

Where they're getting like 60% of Ben's targets or something. Well, Heath, you mentioned at the beginning of the show there are some players who are by-law candidates in dynasty leagues. And that's sort of what I was thinking with this question about someone who did very little in 2019 and is poised for a big year in 2020. I'm sure Deontay Johnson would be on that list. But look, there's J.J. Ortega-Whiteside.

You've got Paris Campbell. You've got Andy Isabella, Anakin Butler. There might be some other names out there. Don't forget Keystone Johnson there, too. Yeah, sure. So who else? Yeah, I think those are the guys. Who do you like?

I'm trying to acquire in Dynasty for cheap rookie picks right now. When people have said, well, they had one bad year, they're not going to be anything, and I just want to get as many. I guess if I had to pick one, I would say Paris Campbell right now as the teams are currently constructed, i'm i haven't given up on hakeem butler yet either he was hurt all year and nobody took that like from the rest of those rookies no one did anything they said well he's clearly a lot better than hakeem butler keishon johnson maybe he was at 4.4 yards per target it was the worst amongst the rookie wide

receivers they like him, though. That matters a little bit. It matters. Oh, for sure. Ben, give me a sort of sleeper sophomore wide receiver. I think we just named a bunch. I like Isabella. He had a really strong production record in college.

But to his point, if you talking about like trading a later round rookie pick for a guy like hakeem butler i'd almost just rather try try again because uh like if you were redrafting the 2019 class where would you take butler probably i mean he was more like a second round pick uh after his landing spot and now we'd probably be at least a third or fourth round pick i mean i think i'd rather just try again on another flyer. But yeah, I think a lot of these guys, you can't really, you know, you gave those stats about Galladay and Godwin, and I do think it is really important to look at rookie season production. For Galladay, you know, he had a hamstring injury for Godwin.

He wasn't really getting on the field, but he was really productive when he got on the field. It's kind of like a Nicole Hardman situation. But it can't really be overstated that how productive guys are in their rookie season does really help predict the rest of their careers. So guys that were really, really ineffective, and this is one reason why I've gotten down on Harry, he did get some playing time, had a hard time earning targets, as Jamie said. And even when he did, I don't even think he had a 30-yard receiving game out of like four

or five games. That can be a pretty good predictive tool. Yeah, but if he played 60 games, I'd agree with you. But the fact that who knows how healthy he was. Coming off of an ankle injury, it's hard to say. Learning the Patriots offense we know has been a challenge for a lot of guys, veteran guys included, that have had to make the switch coming over middle of the season. I got a couple.

Kelvin Harmon is interesting. You know, if Washington doesn't add anybody else, he started to pick up some playing time and showed some flashes toward the end of the season. And Scott Miller, too. You know, you look at the beginning of the season for Tampa Bay. Remember, he was their third receiver. It's going to be hard for me to get a lot of targets, obviously. But, you know, if you're still a third guy in a Bruce Arians offense, you could have some production. We're talking late round picks. It's not a bad guy to sort of take a flyer on just based on what this opportunity could be for him if in fact it's Jameis

Winston and they're going to still have this wide open passing him. What did you make of the fact that J.J. Ortega-Whiteside had such a quiet rookie season with all the injuries they had? It was Greg Ward who stepped up. It was disappointing. To what Ben was talking about, this makes me more concerned about something like that

because he's been with the team and played in practice and did everything at a time when they were so desperate that it was, we're going to clearly lean on the two tight ends in Ertz and Goddard, which is not a bad thing given the production of those two guys. But Boston Scott was such a big part of the passing game. Miles Sanders was such a big part of the passing game that it was just, I'm not even going to take it.

If you're Carson Wentz and Doug Peterson, that they're not taking shots down the field. And like you said, Adam, they're using Greg Ward, who is basically desperation as a converted quarterback. So, yeah, he makes me nervous. But I still think that if he gets a chance and shows himself in the spring and in the summer, then maybe there's an opportunity here, depending on what they act.

All right, let's do some news and notes here, and we will finish up with your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. Tyrod Taylor could be the Chargers quarterback, so he was the backup, and I think some people think Tyrod Taylor is really good, like Heath. I don't think it's great for fantasy,

but Heath what would this do to Keenan Allen if Tyrod Taylor were the starting quarterback for the Chargers and I think that's where we will agree I would be interested in Tyrod Taylor as a late round quarterback as a streaming option

if he was the starter for the Chargers with all those weapons I would be unhappy and I've really already built it into the projections their quarterback play is almost certainly going to be worse than it was last year and than it has been the last three or four years. I don't think

there's a very good chance they're going to draft somebody or assign somebody that is currently better than Tyrod Taylor. So I would have interest in him in 2QB as a late-round streamer for sure, but it'd be bad news for Keenan Allen. It'd be bad news for Mike Williams. I'm not sure it'd be that bad of news for austin eckler as long as he's still a starting running back what if it's brady brady i think could be okay for keenan allen um i would

probably give up on the mike williams breakout if it was tom brady i want to jump in on austin eckler i think it would actually be worse for austin eckler than anyone else i think it would be devastating for austin Austin Eckler's value. Phillip Rivers has targeted running backs at an incredibly high rate throughout his career. He's particularly used him in the red zone across offensive coordinators. He can go back throughout his career. Eckler and Gordon have combined for, I believe it's at least seven receiving touchdowns for three or four straight seasons. But you can go all the way back to Danny Woodhead in his two full seasons seasons with the chargers he got injured the other two years he was on their on their roster

but those two full seasons he had six receiving touchdowns both years rivers loves to use his running backs in the red zone what's that well danny and tomlinson yeah yeah i mean you can go all the way back and so tyra taylor for me the concern would be will he get as many high leverage you know green zone touches as we talk about Austin Eckler? And then number two, and just, you know, basic targets. Will he get as many targets? And we talk all the time about, or at least I, you know, Jamie's mentioned that I'm a big fan of this stat. But running quarterbacks don't dump off as much.

They scramble. And you'll see that with Tyrod Taylor. He go back and look at his time in Buffalo. He runs at a pretty significant rate. Or he takes sacks. He go back and look at his time in Buffalo. He runs at a pretty, pretty significant rate, or he takes sacks. He holds the ball. He doesn't want to throw into, into coverage and he takes some sacks and has a pretty high sack rate, but I think he's a very good quarterback. That is one of his big flaws. You're not going to see a lot of running back targets with Tyrod Taylor. It's going to be a huge drop off from Phillip Rivers.

The only thing that could be interesting in this conversation, this topic, is you have a running backs coach in Anthony Lynn that will probably call a lot of design plays in the passing game for his backs. Because I think that's part of it. And Norv Turner was the same thing as one of the previous coordinators coaches in Phillip Rivers

tenure there. But to Ben's point, if there's ever a statuesque quarterback to say that they just want to get the ball out quick and avoid taking hits it's Philip Rivers he's the least mobile quarterback that we've seen maybe in in the last 15-20 years especially after you had the ACL tear a couple of things one they used especially late in the year after they changed offensive coordinators they used um Eckler more in the slot and two running backs on the field at the same time. They talked about that.

He was used a little bit more as David Johnson is as a pass catcher. The other thing, and I haven't gone back fully and looked at Tyrod's target share, but his last year as a starter in Buffalo, LaShawn McCoy led the team in targets that year. So he has thrown to running backs in the past. And then finally, I just think... Was Anthony Lynn the coordinator there?

He might have been. Finally, I do think there's a chance that his targets go down on like a per-snap or per-game basis with Tyrod Taylor, but I don't expect his efficiency really will. I think some people give Phillip Rivers credit for how good Eckler was on a per-target basis, and he was just a lot better than any other running back catching passes from Phillip Rivers on a per-target basis, So I don't think that will hurt.

I was trying to see who was the offensive coordinator that year. I think it probably was Lynn. Looks like it was Rick Dennison. Well, was Lynn the running backs coach? I think he was around then. He may have been. Well, I'm going to give a couple of stats and then I'm going to ask you a follow up question. So Tyrod Taylor in his three seasons as Buffalo's starting quarterback, he was on pace for 3,018 yards to 3,469 passing yards.

So let's just say about 3,300 passing yards, 15 to 23 touchdown passes per 16 games in those three seasons. So you are talking, you look at the average of Phillip Rivers in his last seven seasons, you're talking about 1100 fewer passing yards. And Rivers had been above 23 touchdown passes, which is a career high for Tyrod Taylor, I think six straight years before throwing exactly 23 in 2019. So it's obviously going to be fewer passing yards. Keenan Allen was a top 12 wide receiver this year. He was actually number six in PPR. If Tyrod Taylor is a starting quarterback, is Keenan Allen a top 20 wide receiver this year. He was actually number six in PPR. If Tyrod Taylor is a starting quarterback, is Keenan Allen a top 20 wide receiver for you?

Top 20? Yes. Very borderline. I've got him 26 and non 16 in PPR, and I'm projecting them as if Tyrod Taylor is a starting quarterback. Yeah, I don't think Tyrod is starting 16 games for the Chargers. If they're moving on from Phillip Rivers,

it's with a plan in place to take one of the quarterbacks in his draft. There's no doubt about that, unless it's Brady. And they're just saying we're going for it all in. We have Tom Brady locked up, and it's that type of guy. It could be Tyrod as the similar situation that we saw in Cleveland, where it's him starting for a few games, and then let's just say it's Justin Herbert, and they turn it over there.

Or if it's Tua, and then maybe he gets a little bit longer leash because Tua's not ready. But I can't imagine that they're making this move with the draft stock that they have as a top 10 pick without taking a chance on one of these guys, unless they're just going to say,

we're tanking for Trevor or whatever the case may be, or the kid from Ohio State. All right, the Steelers GM, Kevin Col, or the kid from Ohio State. All right. The Steelers GM, Kevin Colbert, said Ben Roethlisberger is still on schedule for a complete recovery from elbow surgery. He's hiding a new elbow in his beard. The Jets are unlikely to resign Robbie Anderson, according to The Athletic,

and they are unlikely to trade Le'Veon Bell, according to ESPN. And there is your Jets news. Cardinals running backs, they will not cut David. With the Jets, Le'Veon was playing overweight. Yeah, they're leaking out that he was overweight and not as explosive, so I'm not sure. That's not a good way to trade him, though. The Jets, just relegate the Jets to the XFL.

Can we move on? The ratings would go up. Arizona's not going to cut David Johnson, but they could use the franchise tag on Kenyon Drake. I think I gave this out when we were doing the HQ shows during Super Bowl week, but David Johnson was a top seven

running back from weeks one through six. Chase Edmund was a top seven running back weeks seven and eight, and Kenyon Drake was a top four running back weeks nine through 17. So you want the Arizona Cardinals running back. Just hope it's one guy. What do you think happens if David Johnson and Kenyon Drake are both there? They're probably splitting touches.

Drake's a low end number two and David Johnson's mostly irrelevant. That'll make Ben mad. Oakland is prepared to offer Tom Brady a two-year $60 million deal. Who? He actually threw for Tom Brady. No, the team. Oakland. Las Vegas.

There is no Oakland team. They've officially moved. There's no more team. All right, all right, all right. Las Vegas. They're prepared to offer Tom Brady a two-year $60 million deal. He threw for three more yards last year than Derek Carr did. Three more yards. So he's better.

How about that? Detroit is reportedly looking into trading Darius Slay, and they were horrible without Darius Slay last year. Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones in consecutive games absolutely lit them up. They both threw for like 330 yards and four touchdowns.

Also, Mahomes played them without Slay and didn't do that well. That was weird. Alright, those are your news and Slay and didn't do that well. That was weird. All right, those are your news and notes. Let's do some emails here. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. We have some Dynasty questions and other stuff. All right, first email is from Alex, the commissioner of the No Lifers Fantasy Cup. My Keeper League is looking to alter our fantasy football settings a bit.

We currently run on half PPR, but we want your input on what you prefer standard PPR or half PPR, which gives the best and most equal value to different positions. Half PPR and half point prefers down. Sure. Next email is from Isaac. He says subject line is drafting a bench quarterback, something that we've debated a lot on this show.

Forget trading or streaming. How about just doubling the likelihood that you end up with the next Mahomes? Thoughts? Yes. End up with the next Mahomes. That would be ideal. I think it comes down to, you know, look, you're going to hear us, whether it's, you know, the four of us here, Dave, Ben Trager,

whoever else is going to be part of our shows, the guests we have, they're going to all say that this next guy is going to be a potential superstar. It could be Joe Burrow. It could be Daryl Jones. It could be Dwayne Haskins. Whoever the case may be, young quarterback on the rise. Tua, whatever you sort of want to attach to some of these quarterbacks or somebody that maybe changes teams.

If your league takes multiple quarterbacks, take a flyer on one of these guys. If your league does not and you have the chance to maybe pick them up after a couple weeks to see how your roster looks, that's the right way to approach it. But you have to know how your league is taking quarterbacks or even how the draft unfolds to see if you're taking quarterbacks. But if there's somebody that you like and you're not sold,

like don't take Mahomes and somebody else with the idea of trading them. That's never a successful way to build your roster. But if you take a questionable quarterback, whether it's Drew Brees at 42, however old he is, or 41, Cam Newton coming off the injury, you like Kyler Murray,

but you're not sold on Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, same thing, then take one of these upside type of quarterbacks and hope that maybe you have a good pairing with even the potential of the second guy being the next star. Cool. Next email is from Arthur. Good afternoon. I have a three-part question in which none of the three questions have to do with each other. One, is there a tight end move that would change your ranks

of Kelsey and Kittle as the top two? If so, what would the scenario be like Hunter Henry going to New England with Brady re-signing? The Eagles trading Zekerts. Eagles trade Zekerts. So Goddard? Yeah.

Goddard would be your top two? No. What if they trade Dallas Goddard? Then maybe that. Second question question what the hell is the fish ball you guys keep talking about i think i think i just referenced it when he was talking about the half point ppr but scott fish is a uh you know somebody we talk about on the show as well he talked about him won the humanitarian award um you know talked about him last month i think but a great guy in the industry and he put

together this big contest it started out with like 180 people it's now i i think pushing a thousand people in it and you have all these different leagues and you know everyone in the industry is playing in it so that's it's a big bowl his name is fish not everyone yeah not me all right maybe this will be the year for me. Third question. South Florida wings, bruise room or Anthony's coal-fired pizza? Bruiser. I've never had Anthony's,

but I have a hard time believing they're better than bruise room smoked wings. Oh, triple threat is the best. Well, with the triple threat on it. But yes, they have the fried and they have the smoked. Get the smoked with the triple threat. I have the triple threat. Anthony's are fantastic too, but bruise room is better. I have the fried and they have the smoked. Get the smoked with the triple threat. I have the triple threat. And these are fantastic too, but bruiser room is better.

I had the triple threat when I was down there. And I'll put a stamp of approval on them too. Triple threat. It's like teriyaki, barbecue, and hot sauce, right? It's like three different things. No. Garlic. There's no.

What are you talking about, Ben? There's no teriyaki. Garlic barbecue and hot sauce, right? Like regular buffalo. Glad I asked. All right. Here's Fran from Argentina. Dynasty League.

I got the following trade offer. I'd give up Devin Singletary, and I would receive DK Metcalf and Damian Williams. Would you give up Devin Singletary in a I would receive DK Metcalf and Damian Williams. Would you give up Devin Singletary in a Dynasty League for Metcalf and Damian Williams? If you have to win now, yes. I think I'd give him up for Metcalf straight up. Yes, I would do that. And there's a plug.

There's a Dynasty trade chart on the website that would tell you you should do that. CBSSports.com. All right. Two more emails. Alex, dear Bill, Damian, Lamarcus, and Brandon. Bill, Damian, Lamarcus, and Brandon. Those are Portland Trailblazers. Yes, they are.

Yes, they are. Terrible sport. Can you name them all? I commission our home league. Adam, you're the basketball guy. Can you name them all? Let's see. Of course I can name them all.

They are Bill Walton, Damian. I'm not... You know what? I'm'm not going to dignify that with a response. It's too easy. Okay. This is a good question here. He doesn't know the Brandon. No, he doesn't. The Brandon?

Yeah. Oh, do I not know the Brandon? You don't. Brandon. You don't start. Who is it? What's his last name? Career cut short by injury, man.

He was a superstar. He played at U-Dub when I was in school. He was amazing at U-Dub. He got traded on draft night for O.J. Mayo, right? Is that part of the trade? Maybe. What's his last name? Roy.

Brandon Roy. Yes, I'm pretty sure. I knew that. Alright. Two-keeper league. Two-round premium, so cannot keep anyone drafted in the first two rounds. Waiver wire keepers cost an 11th round pick, and a second waiver wire keeper costs a 12th round pick.

But we're having a hard time figuring out what the premium should be for players who were drafted, dropped, and then picked up off the waiver wire. For example, someone got frustrated early and dropped Mixon, who was originally drafted in the second round. If I wanted to keep him, do I get to pay the waiver wire ad price for an 11th or the draft price for a second,

or what do you do in that situation? We actually have one of these rules in place in one of my keeper leagues where you're not allowed to keep these players if they're dropped. I have a league like this as well and we attach the draft round to. I have a league like this and we make them waiver wire additions.

I'd probably go with Ben's of their draft value is what you have to keep them at. By the way, not surprised. I'm sure you're not surprised. I was wrong about the trade. It was OJ Mayo for Kevin Love on draft night, not Brandon Roy. All right, last email from Chris.

Who wins this trade? Leonard Fournette and Deontay Johnson for Terry McLaurin and the 2020 1.6 pick, six picks of the first round. Fournette and Deontay Johnson for McLaurin and the 2020 1.6 pick, six picks of the first round. Fournette and Deontay Johnson for McLaurin and the sixth pick of the first round. Team B. I'll take the young guys. Long-term, the young guys.

If you need to win now, the Fournette side. Yeah, I think McLaurin is the most valuable piece in the deal, and the number six pick is almost the second most valuable pick. So I will take the McLaurin side. Is there a trade chart I could see somewhere, Heath? CBSSports.com, or you can just Google Dynasty Trade Chart CBS Sports or Heath Cummings. Could do that.

Anything without a mazer. Don't ever Google that. All right. Thank you for listening, everybody. If you want to see Heath incorrectly quote me on Twitter, he's doing that during the show. So that's fun. Thank you for participating in our Twitter polls and our Facebook group.

Make sure you join the Facebook group Fantasy Football today. Tomorrow, they're going to talk about the rookie tight ends and what we can expect from Hawkinson and the rest of them in 2020 and beyond. Thanks again. I'm Adam Azert. See ya.