Fantasy Football Today - 2022 Early Projections, Bears Hype and Coaching Changes (2/3 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 3, 2022

Before we get into early projections, Chris and Heath react to Tom Brady's retirement (2:00) ... Players Heath and Chris are very high on (5:35), including Justin Fields, David Montgomery and Tee Higgins ... News and notes (17:20) with Jim Harbaugh staying at Michigan and Jalen Hurts undergoing ankle surgery ... The players Heath and Chris will be lowest on in 2022 (29:46), starting with Clyde Edwards-Helaire ... The biggest takeaways from Chris and Heath's projections (33:33) as the 49ers and Bucs could be a mess and D'Andre Swift targets are a mystery ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. I'll tell you what I did was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Ben. Welcome to the Fantasy Football Today podcast. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Chris Towers. That's Heath Cummings. We gave Adam Aza the day off.

He's going to refresh, come back for a busy, busy Super Bowl week. We'll tell you about that coming up in a little bit. But today we're talking about a very, very early look at the 2022 projections for the two gentlemen that you see right there or that you're going to listen to, depending on what format you are viewing or listening to us. Heath and Chris's early 2022 projections. Going to get into some guys that they're too low on, too high on, some of the guys they like, some of the guys that they might be avoiding. And we'll catch up on some of the coaching news, most of all what's going on in Minnesota

and probably the University of Michigan as well. But like I said, next, we've got a really busy show for you. We're going to have five episodes leading into Super Bowl 56. They're going to drop at 1130 a.m. Eastern next week. So Monday will be a Senior Bowl recap and reviewing some notes from the Senior Bowl. Go over some early free agency preview, taking a look at guys like Devante Adams, Chris Godwin, you know, where these guys are going to potentially land and what might be the best situation for their fantasy value next week.

Take a look at some DFS picks with Mike McClure. I'll go over some player props on Thursday with Sia Najad and give you a big, big mega preview of Superbowl 56 on Friday with DFS props, everything we were talking about during the week, previewing the big game, getting you set for a Superbowl 56. So, all right, let's get into what we're talking about here, though. But before that, though, you guys weren't on following the big news. Obviously, greatest player of all time, Tom Brady,

steps away from the game, going to retire. Just quickly, your thoughts on Brady, what he meant to the NFL, and maybe what's left of Tampa Bay, if that's one of the teams we're going to talk about or something we're looking at here. So, Heath, I'll start with you. Just Tom Brady stepping away, retiring. Your thoughts on that? Yeah, I do not have many thoughts on what's left in Tampa Bay. The uncertain teams I always save for the very end.

I'm 16 teams in, and Tampa Bay might be team 32. Listen, I think, and I said it last year, I think beating Mahomes in the Super Bowl last year, he was already the GOAT in the present, but I think it ensured that he will remain the GOAT in the future for probably decades. The fact that he won seven Super Bowls and at the age that he did perform like he did with a second team, I just think that there's going to be little doubt. I mean, we'll argue about it, sure.

And maybe he won't be the statistical leader forever, although it's going to take a long time for anybody to catch him. He's the goat. And I thought it was kind of refreshing and for some people irritating to find out the last couple of years of his career that he actually had a personality as well. Bill Belichick didn't let it come out, but he was kind of fun the last couple of years, and that was nice. Old Tom Brady was fun, Tom Brady. Chris? Yeah, I mean, whether he's the greatest or the best quarterback, you can use whatever definition you want. It's clear no quarterback's ever had a better career than Tom Brady, and it's unlikely any quarterback's ever going to have a better career.

What he accomplished in the NFL is, I mean, it's ast's astounding frankly he owns most of the significant records what is did end up seeing six super bowl rings seven it's ridiculous seven super bowl rings um went out basically on top i mean didn't win his last season but they were one of the best teams in the league he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league i was legitimately stunned that he retired. I didn't, I didn't look like he was anywhere close to being done. And I kind of thought he was just going to keep it going. So I,

I'm always happy when a player like that decides to walk away before it gets sad. So I'm grateful that he did that. I didn't want to, uh, what was it? 2015 Peyton Manning season yep where you know or i mean you can use a more recent example the last three years of ben roethlisberger

sure sure ben roethlisberger kobe bryant's last couple of years were pretty sad so yeah i always prefer when uh when the all-time greats walk away before they lose it yep nearly an amazing comeback in the playoffs led the the NFL in passing yards this season. So 44 years old, probably could have played at 45. But as he said, doesn't have it in him yet to compete or compete again. And we will certainly miss watching him play, as I said, on our episode after he retired. And obviously this goes for both you guys,

because you started working at this job after me. I've never not ranked Tom Brady. So it's going to be weird to go into a season not doing it. And you guys have never not projected Tom Brady. so that's i think that is a big switch i think this is true for you as well i know it's true for you as well um and maybe i guess maybe it wasn't true but tom brady was the last player in the nfl that was older than me um there's never going to be a player in the nfl older than me again yes that is true for me as well. Yep. So crazy, crazy situation. I'm not quite there.

All I hope is that Tom Brady allows himself to have one mini donut. Like, go crazy, Tom. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the Hall of Fame. He's obviously going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. And he said, you know what? I got one more year in me. He'll come back. He'll go on his training regimen come back you know 50 and uh

you know throw a touchdown pass wouldn't shock me at all let's get into what the main topic of the show is here which is an early look at the 2022 projections so uh heath i'll start with you give me a player you think you'll be the highest on i don't know if it's necessarily highest uh in comparison to chris in comparison to how dave and i will rank these guys in the industry but just somebody that you think right now that you're high on. And I know you said you're only, you know, about halfway through the teams. So that factors into it clearly,

but in the early run of your early projections, who do you think you're going to come out and, you know, be the, be the guy on, be the guy for you. Probably. I've been the guy on him before,

but like first thought of the teams I've done so far, it's probably going to be David Montgomery. I currently have him and there will be some things that change in the next couple of weeks and months. But right around number 10 at running back, I actually have him one spot ahead of Javante Williams, which I know will not be a popular take. I've got him ahead of Nick Chubb.

I just think that he is obviously a good running back. He's proven that over the last couple of years. And it's the situation that I expect to be kind of similar to Joe Mixon, where I think this will be the best offense that he's been a part of, which gives him a chance to score more touchdowns. And maybe he'll even average more than four yards per carry. So 10th for you. We know two years ago, he was a top five running back after the 2020 season. Took a little bit of a step back, but was still successful. I don't think people appreciate just how good he was when he was on the field. Now he missed some time, clearly.

But no concern, though, with Justin Fields and his running ability taking away from some of the pass catching that we saw from David Montgomery. And then also, we just don't know what Matt Eberfluss and the offensive coaching staff there is going to do with him in terms of, is he still the guy or are they going through this, because I try to get rid of the guys that I don't think are going to be on the team. The Bears don't have very many talented offensive players at this point, and they may add one or two, but David Montgomery is going to be one of their best offensive players. I think that they're going to find ways to get him the ball. Fields showed a little bit in the second half that he was more willing to throw to his running backs. And I think we often see with young quarterbacks, that's a skill that develops as they mature in the league would not be surprised that happens for him as well they their offensive coordinator came from the packers correct yep

and that is an offense that has been just overloaded with running back opportunities to the extent that aaron jones can share and rarely see more than 60% of the running back touches and still be a top 10 running back, not this year, but in the past. Yeah, no, it's a good situation to look at with a good offensive line. I guess the one thing that's a little bit of a wild card, which we have plenty of time this offseason to get into, is Tariq Cohen may be back and is a factor. And that's something I think we'll find out. And the offense coordinator that they did hire was Luke Getze, who is coming from the Packer staff, as you indicated. So hopefully he follows in LaFleur's footsteps.

And as Adam has said time and time again, basically everywhere LaFleur has been, the number two most targeted player on that offense has been a running back. And so hopefully that continues for David Montgomery and for Heath in his projections. All right, Chris, so you don't have one guy that you're high on. You want to talk about two guys. So I guess it kind of ties in.

Let's talk about the first one here, Justin Fields. So can Fields get Montgomery going? And what do you like about Justin Fields going into his sophomore season? Yeah, he ended up, you know, I haven't, I think he's doing a little more team-by-team massaging where I just kind of took a holistic view to start just to get a baseline. And Justin Fields ended up 12th for me at quarterback I don't know if that's going to be super high relative to everyone else but that's

um you know I think he's going to be it's not even projecting him to be great as a passer it's projecting him to be pretty mediocre but I think they're going to make more use of his rushing ability I think it's going to you know they're I don't think it's going to be like the Philadelphia Eagles where the rushing game became the priority for them. But I do think that would make sense given, one, the fact that the Bears, I believe, only have like 32 players under contract for 2022. They don't have very much cap space relative to how many roster spots they have to fill.

So I don't think there's going to be this big infusion of offensive talent. So I think it could end up looking a decent amount like Philadelphia where they run more than average, and Justin Fields is going to be a big part of that. He should be a red zone asset. And so I just think there's a chance that he has a diet Cam Newton type of season when you're talking about the peak Cam Newton where maybe he's not throwing for 4,500 yards, but if he rushes for 600 and adds five rushing touchdowns,

that just adds such a high floor that if he's just passable as a passer, I think he's going to be very good. Is that what you projected him for? What were the numbers you projected? I guess we should factor that in. So, Heath, think about that as well for Montgomery. So what did you project Fields for at least right now? 500 rushing yards, 5.5 rushing touchdowns, 3,900 passing yards, 22 touchdowns.

Okay, and I just want to put it in context. And obviously, as I said, when we did this, it's on the site. You can see it. I just pulled up just because I was curious because you said he came out 12 for you in your early projections. He was not in your top 12 quarterback rankings. So who gets knocked out? And I'll tell you if you don't have in front of you. So I'm assuming the top five or six are probably the same.

So I'll start eight through 12. Well, there's one obvious one. Brady. Brady. Oh, Brady. Yeah, I'm sorry. Makes sense. All right. Yeah, I think that's It makes sense. Yeah. All right.

Yeah, I think that's the – I think that's actually the only change. I haven't – But he was 13 for you originally. Not necessarily. He was in that range. Gotcha. Yeah. That's – this is a different process than the initial rankings. And where do you have Montgomery projected for you?

Montgomery is around 1,400 total yards and 13 touchdowns. Okay. So it's going to be really interesting to see what happens with, I do think they're going to, they have to add a receiver. I mean, it goes without saying, you know, they can't just let Allen Robinson walk for whatever he was and not bring somebody of some substance. Adam said, when we did our breakout tight ends,

that Cole commanded his breakout tight end this year. So that factors in. So it's going to be fun to see how this bears offense offense changes but i know chris you have one other guy you think you're gonna be the highest on and that's t higgins yeah i'm definitely gonna be the highest on t higgins i believe i was the only one who had him as a top 12 wide receiver when we did our initial rankings when i did the projections he ended up being even higher than that i've got him as a wide receiver seven right now in the projections that's with one increasing the Bengals pass volume a little bit not a huge amount but around five percent overall and two like he was right there

with Jamar Chase in terms of target share they were both right around 24 percent for this season it's been similar in the playoffs we've seen really big games from T. Higgins I think two of the three playoff games I just think he is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, one of the 12 or 15 best wide receivers in the NFL. And if we think, you know, if we think Joe Burrow is going to make this leap to be, you know,

one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, if he hasn't already, I think they're going to be more pass heavy. And I think T Higgins is going to be a big part of it. He's not as high as Jamar chase. I don't think that's uh unreasonable but i do think he's going to be a number one wide receiver next season so if you disagree i know because we did fft and five and you said you're going to be the low guy on joe burrow so you i guess don't have the same opinion of probably t higgins because i i know you

have jamar chase ranked high i'm going to guess you don't have Tee Higgins close to where Chris does. Yeah, I don't know. I've got him somewhere in the teens. He's a top 20 wide receiver for me. I've got Chase, I think, third. And again, half the teams I haven't projected yet, so those will change. But my problem with Burrow, the thing that Chris said, the 5% increase in pass attempts, I hope they do that. I just don't know. Like they got to the Super Bowl, and I said this with the Titans a few years back, when

you have this much success with an offensive game plan, I struggle to project a change in that. I don't think they're going to be a bad team next year. In fact, I think the Steelers are probably worse next year, and I'm not sure the Browns are going to be better. So I think they're going to be playing from ahead. And when they've played from ahead, it's been a whole lot of running. Even against the Chiefs, they were probably running the ball on early downs more than they should have been. My bigger concern with Burrow is the statistical regression that's going to happen in terms of his yards per attempt and his touchdown

rate. And I do think he'll throw a little bit more. I think I've got him projected for 580 pass attempts or something. That's right around where i am yeah and higgins again a top 20 wide receiver just not quite as high yeah i'm i'm just so fascinated what they could do this offseason because with these guys in place at the years that they have them you know so early in their career and so much flexibility with options to just go address this offensive line. Now, does that mean it's better for their run game, which obviously is going to detract from Burrow and the receivers, or does this mean it's just better for the offense? And they say, you know what?

You got, if they end up winning, you get your Superbowl ring in year two, year three, whatever year two. Now let's see if you get an MVP. Now let's see if you can go,. Now let's see if you can go prove that you're one of the best quarterbacks in the league, which is obviously going to put the ball in his hands a little bit more. It's going to be fascinating to see how this offense changes, evolves. I think

you go back to that San Francisco game Adam referenced this time and again, that's when they sort of said it's Burrow's offense as opposed to we're not babying anymore. That's when they sort of said it's burrows offense as opposed to you know we're not babying anymore and that's where you sort of see the the bigger plays for both those receivers but can can he sustain two guys in the top 10 um as i think the question people have to ask themselves chris you buy it he not necessarily so much and so uh i guess you'll be you'll be

drafting higgins what round three if you're taking him as a top receiver? Yeah, I think I've ended up with him in round four in both of the mock drafts we've done, or maybe round five, and I'm thrilled to get him there. But yeah, I'll rank him in that range. And Heath, you wouldn't take him until round four, I guess, right? Yeah, round four is about right, I think. All right, so there's a little look at some of the guys that they're high on. T. Higgins, Justin Field, David Montgomery.

So these guys will be competing over the Bears in 2022 based on how things are going so far. look at some of the guys that they're high on t higgins justin field david montgomery so uh these guys will be competing over the bears in uh 2022 based on how things are going so far all right so you normally hear adam talk about indochino he loves the suits uh it's it's an unbelievable product that they have um i have never worn an indochino suit that's because we get something sent to us you know as a thank you for doing sponsorships. But Adam steals them all. So I've never seen a lot of the things you hear you guys talk. Sometimes I put my head down because, you know, I don't even know, get a chance to experience it. I got to go experience it for myself.

So you know what? When Ben said, hey, we're giving Adam the day off. You're going to do the Indochino read. I went, I looked, and I bought two suits. You know, so the two that I picked out were the Hemsworth Stripe Blue suit and the Haxby Navy suit. They're both under $400. I love designing it for myself. I can't wait to get them.

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Maybe everybody's gonna be out of luck, but you're going to hear about Indochino a lot because it's a great product. And I'm excited to get my two new suits, a couple of news items that we need to make you aware of. So if you haven't been paying attention to the coaching cycle, some news happening in Minnesota, not official yet because they can't make the hire, but all reports indicate that they're going to go with Kevin O'Connell,

who is the Rams offensive coordinator as their next head coach, replacing Mike Zimmer. Jim Harbaugh was thought to be taking the job, but he says, no, he's staying at Michigan. So you guys are going through your projections. I don't know if you saved the Superbowl teams for after the Superbowl, but in terms of what the Rams have done, and we know it's a very Sean McVay-centered offense,

Kevin O'Connell going to the Vikings. What does this mean, assuming Kirk Cousins is there, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen? We know there's a lot of big fantasy assets there. Are things going to change for you guys with Kevin O'Connell as head coach? How are you going to approach the new play caller there for Minnesota? I mean, it'll be interesting to see if they go with more three wide receiver sets, which has been kind of the hallmark of the Rams offense during the Sean McVay era because this was a team,

and Heath talked about it a lot during the regular season, that when we were looking for that third pass catcher, it was kind of either K.J. Osborne or Tyler Conklin. It was never both. There wasn't room really for both of them to step up, and that was even true when Adam Thielen went out. And so this is a team that runs a lot of two running back sets, not as much two tight end sets this past year,

though we'll see if Irv Smith comes back healthy. So it'll be interesting to see if they adopt that kind of change that would be a pretty significant philosophical change but you know one thing is Zach Taylor as the Bengals head coach has been pretty run heavy you know we we he came out of that Sean McVay offense as well and we thought oh maybe they would open it up it's not really what we've seen outside of the last five or six games of this season. I don't know if we're necessarily going to see a dramatic sea change in how the Vikings work. They'll probably be less run heavy just because it's hard to be as run heavy as they have been.

But it doesn't dramatically change how I'm going to view this offense. The best thing about this was already decided weeks ago, and that's that Mike Zimmer is not going to... He let go of the reins a couple times while he was there, but he's not going to be pulling back the reins on the passing game. If O'Connell has learned much from Sean McVay, then I think that we could have a decent expectation that Kirk Cousins

has the upside to have his best season in fantasy as a quarterback, because what we've seen, Jared Goff was much better with the Rams than he was with Detroit jared goff was much better with the rams than he was with detroit matthew stafford much better with the rams than he was with detroit i think that there's reason to believe that with zimmer gone there will be more pass attempts cousins could be very efficient um so yeah i think and the other thing like mcveigh's offenses and zach taylor's except for this year with Cooper Cup have

generally been pretty balanced in terms of targets amongst the wide receivers now this year with Cooper Cup kind of changed that so maybe Jefferson can have that cup role and really dominate targets like he did in the second half of 2021 but uh historically they've been a team that really likes to spread the ball around and not have too many tendencies that you can bet on have you gotten through the Vikings yet Heath in terms of your projection around and not have too many tendencies that you can bet on. Have you gotten to the Vikings yet, Heath, in terms of your projections? I had not because of the teams that didn't have a head coach. You waited. I waited, but I will definitely be projecting

both the Rams and the Vikings today. What I will do probably is just a straight split between Sean McVay's splits as a play caller the past three seasons and last year's league average and just try to normalize it a little bit it's a bit of a guessing game we'll see what O'Connell does but that's the thing about McVay also and we've talked about this there was the Tyler Higby stretch there was the Robert Woods stretch we've now had the Cooper Cup season he is not a guy who does the same thing over and over. That's fair. I think you look at, though, when he has stars at certain spots, Gurley, when he was at his best, Cup now, the combo of Woods and Cup,

I think he was trying to figure out maybe who's the better of the two when those guys were great. Brandon Cooks has had some good moments, had a good season with him. Yeah, I guess it's hard to figure out the tendencies. Chris, in terms of the Vikings guys, now I don't know if you're factoring in the coaching change, if that was when you did it, but where does Dalvin Cook come out for you in your projections?

So Dalvin Cook actually came out surprisingly low. He was RB8 for me in the first round of projections, and that was with 270 carries, was RB8 for me in the first round of projections. And that was with 270 carries, which is probably a little lower than what we would expect from a full season based on what we've seen the last few years. So maybe I'm too low there. Only 45 catches. I think that's right around.

That one sounds right, but maybe the rushing volume is a little low. We'll see because this is another thing with the Sean McVay offense that we have seen is outside of 2020 when he's had a running back and he's had a healthy go-to running back that was Daryl Henderson when he was healthy this year that was Sonny Michelle it's been Cam Akers the last three games and it was Cam Akers down the stretch last season he gives that running back 75 percent of the touches 85 percent of the snaps so I don't know if we're going to see a dramatic change in Dalvin Cook's on-field usage.

The concern for Dalvin Cook with me is just I tend to be more injury agnostic, but he's a guy who's had, I think, four or five different separated or dislocated shoulders going back to college. And so the recurring nature of those injuries, even though he's only missed two games, two or three games each of the last three seasons, I do think there is heightened risk for him. So that's probably why I'll be a little lower on consensus. And one thing I'll point out with Justin Jefferson is he was a 30% target share guy this year, which was, I think, third highest in the NFL behind Devontae Adams and Cooper Cup. He'll probably regress from that anyway,

but he's got a really, really high baseline that he's regressing from, and I think he's going to be among the league leaders in target share moving forward. Yeah, and I think that Alvin Cook points a good one because I made a point I just project everybody for 17 games except for Will Fuller. I don't know. It's really difficult for me to look at a guy who's played five years in the NFL and has never played more than 14 games and say, I'm going to project him for 17 games. And when he's on the field, his rush share was 74% this season. That's one of the highest in the NFL.

His target share was 11%. So even if he comes down from that a little bit, or even if you project him for less than that to account for some injury risk, which is basically what I'm doing, you're still going to end up with well over 300 touches. Give me the numbers, just the numbers, for Jefferson and Thielen, what you have right now, Chris.

1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns for Jefferson and Thielen what you have right now Chris uh 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns for Jefferson 103 catches 84 catches for 915 yards and seven touchdowns for Thielen okay and did you do Osborne and Smith yet too yeah uh not Smith actually that's that's an oversight that I'll have to work on I projected Conklin as the leading tight end but Osborne 730 yards four touchdowns on 55 catches. So he would have to take a step forward to replace Thielen, and I'm not sure that's going to happen, Jesse. Yeah, it's another year that I think Kirk Cousins will get overlooked in drafts

and probably end up in that top 12 range. Again, maybe not finishing as a top 12 quarterback, but certainly if you whiff on the position or you take a young guy that you want to pair him with, like a Justin Fields or a Trey Lance, just to make sure you have some safety, a safety net there. He's a, he's an excellent number two quarterback down on your team and produces year in, year out, despite everybody always saying he's not going to do it. He's currently ahead of Russell Wilson and Joe Burrow for me. Oh, you have him ahead of those guys. Okay. So you have him ahead of Burrow.

Yep. Even though you like both the Bengals guys okay so you have him ahead of burrow yep even though you like both the yep bangles guys and burrow take a step forward yep very interesting okay um the bills hired uh panthers offense offensive former panthers office coordinator joe brady is their quarterback coach he's going to work with ken dorsey um as the replacement for brian dable the one thing just to keep an eye on there is that Brady loves throwing to his running backs based on his time at LSU, based on his tenure with the Panthers. So maybe that helps Devin Singletary

or whoever's going to work with Devin Singletary, most likely Zach Moss again. So just something to keep an eye on there. Joe Brady, now a member of the Bills staff. I'm a little curious if there's a, not a full Mike Zimmer situation here, but a little bit of a Mike Zimmer situation because there was definitely some talk

about how Brian Dable did not want to run the ball as much as Buffalo wanted to run the ball. And he kind of lost that battle at the end of the year, right, when they started running the ball a little bit more? Okay. I wonder, with Dorsey getting promoted to take over the offensive coordinator job, if he's going to listen to the head coach a little bit more

in terms of run-pass split, and we see them a little bit more run heavy than they've been the last two years maybe i mean it's certainly something to take into account joe brady's hiring does not speak to that though because he's more of a pass heavy guy as opposed to a run heavy guy and that's why i think he was like going carolina because that's what matt rule wanted to do so it's an interesting hire it certainly you know goes against what you're saying he because of i would think sean mcdermott may have wanted to have a little bit more balance but when you have that guy under center why would you take the ball out of his hands more than you need to you know so and they're

you know they're not balanced but they're not like one of the extreme pass heavy teams part of part of that is because josh allen runs so much and so that's all right i think he had a career high in rush attempts this season um 17 games but yeah i think even on a career high in rush attempts this season. 17 games. But yeah, I think even on a per game basis, I think he had his highest per game rush attempts. They felt like there was some more design runs, certainly as the season went on,

when they kind of went through that lull of Moss struggling, getting hurt, Singletary not stepping forward. And then finally they just realized, let Devin Singletary be the guy, and he proved to be very successful. Jalen Hurts had ankle surgery on Wednesday. Any concern with him going into next season? He's going to have plenty of time to get healthy.

Led the Eagles in rushing. We know the offense, as you alluded to, in terms of the comparison with Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields, how the offense switched basically after about five or six weeks of the season. Jalen Hurts going into 2022, where does he compare to maybe Cousins and Burrow and Wilson for you, Chris, in terms of taking that next step? Can he evolve as a passer?

Is he still going to rush for 700-plus yards? Are we going to see that type of player? First half, beginning of the season, Jalen Hurts. Second half, Jalen Hurts. Which Jalen Hurts are you expecting next year? When I'm projecting, I tend to regress everyone back to the league mean to a certain extent. And with a team like Philadelphia especially,

with how extreme run heavy they were last season, it's going to be more significant than most. But they do, I believe they are still the only team that I project to have more rush attempts than pass attempts this season. And you saw that with Tennessee having to throw the ball more this season, Derrick Henry's injury, things like that happen. And so I think we're going to see a little bit more balance than we did down the stretch.

But Jalen Hurts' primary value is still going to come from his rushing. He's right in that range. You know, Cousins to Burrow is Cousins, Hurts, fields wilson burrow and in some order between eight and thirteen me your eyes got big there uh i think he said is because he said justin field's name before joe burrow's name oh i had told you i was going to be the low guy on joe burrow and that can't be the case no i wasn I wasn't listening to an order though. Yeah, I've got Hurts very, very close to Kyler Murray and they're QB seven and eight right now. So I still think he has top five upside.

I still think he has some pretty significant dynasty downside if things go bad this year. But he could be, and especially if you're in a four point per pass touchdown league, I mean, he might be a top three three quarterback it's going to be interesting to see what they do with the offseason they have three draft picks in the first round are they going to be in the john watson sweepstakes if he's able to play in 2022 and the texans trade him to philadelphia obviously they need to address the receiving core because they can't just go with the same group and davante smith hopefully will take a step forward uh d Dallas Goddard as well. But one of the teams that you should be keeping an eye on for sure.

And as Heath said, his dynasty value could certainly be impacted if he's no longer the starting quarterback for the Eagles and maybe the starter for the Houston Texans. All right, let's talk about some of the guys that we're low on. So, Heath, I'll give you the first word. You mentioned Joe Burrow. I don't know if the guy that you're going to go with, because Chris might be lower than you based on some of the comments.

But who's the guy you think you're going to be lowest on going into 2022 based on the teams that you projected so far? Yeah, I definitely thought that it was going to be him. I think it might be Clyde Edwards-Alaire. He did not come out in my top 30 running backs. And I have very little confidence that he has more upside than, say, 50% of the team's rush attempts or 55% of the team's rush attempts. I don't think the Chiefs are going to use him in the passing game. We've seen now them trust Darrell Williams in situations over him, them trust Jarek McKinnon in situations over him.

So it's not even a situation. And Chris made a good point with this last year. Kind of like Mike Davis. Well, there's nobody that can take the ball away from Mike Davis on the team. There was, it doesn't seem like there's a very high bar to be the guy that can take the ball away from Clyde Edwards Hilaire in Kansas city. I don't think they're going to draft another running back. Probably. Hopefully they learned their lesson on that, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a veteran sharing with them. And I wouldn't be surprised if that veteran takes the job from him by the end of the year.

McKinnon is a free agent. Darrell Williams could be back, so it might be just the same split again, and not even just somebody taking him off the field. He takes himself off the field because he gets hurt. The injuries have been a problem for him the last two seasons. The ankle two years ago, the shoulder this season. Unfortunately, it's just been

a tough go for a guy that we were very excited about coming out of LSU and the first-round pick two seasons ago. So maybe year three will be the year for Clyde Edwards-O'Leary, but Chris, I'm sorry, Heath, you will not be drafting him very highly. Chris, the guy that you're low on or expect to be low on is A.J. Dillon. So let's assume just for argument's sake that Aaron Rodgers stays in Green Bay because that would make the offense obviously a lot better. So is that the way you're factoring this or is this just A.J. Dillon with I guess it doesn't matter if Aaron Rodgers is there you know how's the approach with the uh the Packers running back situation I'm projecting it as if Aaron Rodgers is there for now and and the biggest thing for me is I just I'm not

projecting him to take over as the lead back just yet um I have him and um Aaron Jones projected for the exact same rush share this season in the games that they and Aaron Jones projected for the exact same rush share. This season in the games that they played, Aaron Jones actually had a slightly higher rush share. He had 43% of the carries in the games he played. Dillon was 42%. Obviously, as the season went on, that did change a little bit, but I'm just splitting it down the middle. The biggest thing is just I have Aaron Jones with a bigger role in the passing game. I think A.J. Dillon can be a factor in the passing game, but if there's going to be someone who gets 75 targets in this backfield, it's going to be Aaron Jones.

And when you're talking about splitting rush attempts, not a huge factor in the passing game. I've got him for 35 catches, so not nothing. And, you know, it's not like A.J. Dillon was the better goal line option or was the preferred goal line option. So it all just comes down to the fact that he's splitting and he's on the negative side of the split for me. And I, you know, I think he could be someone who gets viewed as an RB two he's RB 28 for me.

I don't know where that is relative to where you guys are, but that's one of the ones that is a little lower for me. I think we need have we come up with a word yet for these type of players that are not handcuffs not lottery ticket type guys because they play too much um like dylan like tony pollard you know not necessarily like alexander madison because i don't think he plays enough you know in the last season what is it they're kareem hunts kareem hunts that's a good one you know so in the last season, what is it? They're Kareem hunts, Kareem hunts. That's a good one. You know?

So, but like, what is like, how do we define these guys? Cause you, you, you can't necessarily draft them to be weekly starters. You could have them as flex options,

depending on how you build your team, but you prefer them by weeks. Obviously there's an injury. They're top 10 guys. You know, I mean, as we saw Aaron Jones doesn't play, whether he produced like's an injury, they're top 10 guys. You know, I mean, as we saw, Aaron Jones doesn't play. Whether he produced like that or not, we've treated him like that.

We treat Kareem Hunt like that when Nick Chubb is not there. We treat Tony Pollard like that if Zeke wasn't there. How do we define these guys? I think they're really good zero RB backs, and they're kind of super handcuffs like they're they're useful players to have around when they're not the starter but they have you know league winning potential or weak winning potential if they do become the starter so I think they're really valuable players who as long as you're not expecting them you know like like a lot of what

we did with Tony Pollard this season where there like a lot of what we did with tony pollard this season where there were a lot of points where the fantasy community was like this is the week that he's going to be the lead back and it never actually happened right so as long as you don't do that as long as you don't expect them to do something that they haven't done yet i think they have a lot of value it's just it's easy to get over your skis on these types of players i'm going to come up with it i mean the whole time chris was talking i was not listening to him and trying to come up with no that sounds right the name for these players and i i failed um but that's my mission for the rest of the day all right a phrase to define these non-handcuff non-lottery ticket startable

caliber running backs that we can uh still use but not maximize their potential because they're still stuck behind somebody who's probably in most cases still better than them all right we're going to take a quick break right now when we come back and get into the two biggest takeaways from the projections for both of these guys and it should be some fun conversations about a couple of different teams all right and we're back all right heath i'm going to give you the first one here. We'll kind of ping pong. We'll go one each for both of you, but back and forth. So, Heath, you're the first one here.

So your biggest takeaway from your projection so far, give me a team or a player that stood out to you. And I think this is one Chris and I might disagree on, but scared to death about projecting the Lions target share and DeAndre Swift. And it goes back all the way to last offseason when they hired Anthony Lynn as the offensive coordinator. And I spent months saying,

look at all these touches Anthony Lynn gives to running backs. Look at all these targets Anthony Lynn gives to running backs. In the first eight games of the season, Anthony Lynn called plays and running backs on the team had a 29% target share. And then Dan Campbell took away the keys and running backs for the rest of the season had a 29% target share. And then Dan Campbell took away the keys. And running backs for the rest of the season had an 18% target share. And the whole thing that makes it more difficult is that DeAndre Swift only played four of those games. Four and a half of those games.

And in one of them, he had 33 carries. So that was great. It was okay. But I think the thing you have to lean towards is is that anthony lynn is the outlier in terms of generating that number of running back touches and targets per game and we should not expect dan campbell to do the same thing i still think deandre swift could be a borderline number one high end number two running back but he went from basically eight targets per game with lynn calling plays to four and a half targets per game with Campbell calling plays. And four and a half is just a lot more normal.

So that's probably closer to what we should expect this season. The problem is if the Lions are still a below average team, even if they're competitive like they were in the second half, and they're still splitting touches, which I think they probably will, Swift doesn't get those garbage time targets, doesn't have seven or eight targets a game. I don't think he can be the top five running back that i hoped he would be last year and chris you're very high on deandre swift i know he's a top 10 running back for you

yeah and uh you know one thing i'm trying to look at right now is what swift's target share was in those games but i don't know if that even would give us the full picture because he played four full games after Anthony Lynn gave up play calling duties but not really because his last two games of the season he did come back from that injury but he clearly wasn't playing his normal role played 57 percent of the snaps and 54 percent of the snaps those were two of the three lowest snap shares he had for a game where he didn't leave with an injury so I think it's clear that he wasn't a hundred percent healthy at that point. And he still had eight targets across those two games, only 11 carries. So I don't think that's necessarily representative

of what his role is going to look like moving forward. And as I'm talking, I'm trying to find what DeAndre Swift's target share was from week nine on, and I can't come up with it. So I was hoping to do that while I was. It's really's really it's a it's a puzzle that is not easily solved because there's a partial game in there and there's missed games in there so like that's i said it's not it's not something where i definitely feel confident i'm not screaming deandre swift bust but it's one of the things that's going to trouble me and i think it extends to the entire lions offense in terms of target share because monroe st brown really exploded without swift and hawkinson how much of that is sustainable tj's

hawkinson the tight ends saw a higher percentage of the targets when anthony lynn was calling plays than the tight ends did when dan campbell was calling plays some teams throw the ball to their wide receivers 50 of the time some throw the wide receiver 65 percent of the time and though that 15 might be the difference between hawkinson and swift being a good value and not yeah but it's also a lot of that can be dictated by personnel you know when you've got monroe saint brown and khalif raymond as your top wide receivers and you've got tj hawkinson and deandre swift as your running back and tight end you're gonna throw to your running backs and tight ends more often than most teams just because at least if you're running if we're assuming a you know it's like chris rose he was so passionate about this he's stuck in time um the two what i was gonna say is the two things

we've got to find out about the Lions is one, who their play caller is, because they're still without an office coordinator, and two, what do they do at the receiver position? Because Amon Ross St. Brown might still be the number one guy in theory, but he may get an upgrade. He may just

get another rookie to compliment or another young player to compliment him, something that we'll have to keep an eye on. All right, Heath, give me your second takeaway. Hopefully get Chris back here. So your second biggest takeaway from your projections. I think there's going to be a glut of second year wide receivers in the wide receiver three range. I've got three of them. I'm halfway through the league and I've already got three of them right around wide receiver 30. I'm on Ross St. Brown, Devontae Smith, and Elijah Moore. And I wouldn't be surprised if there's another one or two. I think that's the same range that you'll probably see guys like Gabriel Davis as well. That wide receiver three range is going to be really, really interesting this year. And really, really,

you can see the changing of the guard happening as it's happening. And these guys are coming. Which one are you projecting the high so far? it amara saint brown as of right now without another like good wide receiver in detroit it is saint brown but again they are all three within one fantasy point in february so it's not predictive at all which one's at the top. Now, St. Brown closed the season. Obviously, a lot of people are going to remember that, playing at such a high level. Which of those three, though, do you think has full season breakout potential? Because Elijah Moore had some flashes of brilliance.

Obviously, you know, he wasn't sustainable. And then what we saw from Devontae Smith, at least early in the season, he seemed to be heading in that direction, but then they flipped the offense and started to run the ball a lot more. Yeah, I'm going to say Smith still, just because I think he, I mean, he has the best pedigree. I think he is the best of the wide receivers. I think he's the most likely, if everybody's healthy, to still have like a 25% target share. And that'll be fewer targets because it's Philadelphia, but I could see them being more efficient because they're so good at running the ball.

Moore has a lot of upside as well. It's just it's so hard to know. I don't believe I went through and looked. I know there wasn't a game where Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Corey Davis all played more than 50% of the snaps. And so it's really hard to know because Davis was Wilson's guy early in the season. And it's pretty easy to make the argument that Davis was better with Wilson than Moore was. So that's the part I struggle with, with him. I would say Smith, I think has the most upside, but it's close. Yep.

And, uh, again, going back to the Jalen Hurts conversation, throw the ball a little bit more. If, if you're looking to see Devontae Smith break out. I still think Elijah Moore probably has the most breakout potential there just based on the offense that he's in,

unless Philadelphia does change. But certainly something to keep an eye on there. And Amaro St. Brown probably going to get drafted the highest, again, depending on what Detroit does

with their offseason and their receiving corps. All right, Chris, your two biggest takeaways now that you're back. Start with the first one about the 49ers and your concerns there while going into the Trey Lance era. Yeah, I mean, one, it's probably going to be one of the most run-heavy

offenses in the NFL. It usually is even when they don't have a Russian quarterback like Trey Lance. And then it's just a question of I don't know how good of a quarterback Trey Lance. And then it's just a question of, I don't know how good of a quarterback Trey Lance is going to be. I'm projecting him for below average yards per yard, yards per attempt, below average touchdown rate. And you know, one of the lowest passing rates in the NFL, which gets into really tricky territory when you've got a guy who I want to be a top 12 wide receiver, another guy who I think has the talent to be a top 24 wide receiver, and a guy who I think might be the best tight end in football.

And so going through this, when you're projecting them to be one of the lowest pass rate teams in the league and one of the least efficient passing teams in the league, it gets really hard to get Debo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Ayuk to where you want them to be. And in my first run of the projections, Debo Samuel ended up 15th at wide receiver. Brandon Ayuk is like 47th and George Kittle's seventh at tight end. And I don't know how to fudge the numbers to make it look better. Like is Trey Lance going to throw 35 times a game i would be shocked if he did

uh is he even going to throw 30 times a game i don't think so um but then you also get into it's really hard to make elijah mitchell much more than a low-end rb2 in that offense if trey lance is going to get 130 to 150 carries like he probably will. So it's just you look at it all. You put the team together holistically, and it's like I love all the individual parts, and I don't actually love any of the players for fantasy. And that's – Debo Samuel ended up 15th at wide receiver with 400 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns.

I don't actually know if they're going to use him the way they have. They've kind of indicated that. He said he wants the same role in their exit interviews with the media. He said he wants the same role. I think the 49ers realize that he's such a Swiss Army knife, can do it all, and why would you change it? But yeah, now there's a season's worth of tape on it, film on it. How much will, you know, that, that factor in as well.

Keith, again, your eyes got big on that one. So what's the thing that stood out to you the most? Was it Debo? It was Debo, but, and this is a team, another team that I'll probably do today. I haven't got to the 49ers yet either. But all the things Chris was saying about the 49ers are exactly how I feel about the Broncos.

I don't think any of the Broncos three wide receivers came out in my top 48 in my first run. I was like, how do I get one of those wide receivers? I mean, I'll rank one of them that high just so I don't get called out for it. I think Judy just snuck inside the top 40 for me. Right. It's those situations. And the problem is when you're doing projections you just kind of rank everybody lower because there's not enough room and so everybody suffers i think the most likely outcome in these

situations is that's not what's going to happen one guy's going to suffer a big loss and then two of the guys will be good you just need to figure out yeah one guy gets hurt or one guy just lands in the coach's doghouse, like Brandon and you. It's the kind of thing where I talk about a lot in the baseball podcast where we're like, I don't know if this guy's going to get the playing time. It's like, well, if you're good, life finds a way. Like the Jurassic Park quote. Generally, Debo Samuel was too good to not get the work he did this season.

And so maybe he'll just be a 27% target share guy again next season. Although that's not been the case in his running back role. So it's a really, really tough situation. And unlike the Broncos, it's hard to see there being a better, like a point this off season where you're like, ah,

yes, it makes sense. Now I can see how it goes because the Broncos, well, if they add Aaron Rogers, yeah, you can definitely see how I can see how it goes because the Broncos, well, if they add Aaron Rodgers, yeah, you can definitely see how things can get a lot better for that offense. But with the 49ers, it would either require, basically it would require a leap of faith in Trey Lance

that I'm not willing to make based on what we've seen. Yeah, Debo feels the safest to me. It sounds like that's the case for you. I know tight end obviously is a different, you know, because you're hearing 15th and 7th. But Debo feels the safest, at least for me, because I know he's going to get those carries. So at least they're going to try and put the ball in his hands.

And Trey Lance doesn't have to make a lot of throws downfield to make him successful. I am very concerned, though, about Kittle and Ayuk. I think Kittle's talent will overcome some of the deficiencies from Lance potentially. But Ayuk might suffer if the targets aren't there. All right, Chris, last one for you, the biggest takeaway from projections in regards to the bucks,

clearly big change, no more Tom Brady. So as of now, it looks like Kyle Trask could be their starter. I'd be very surprised if that's the case, but take us through your thought process quickly on the, on the bucks. Yeah. So the, the, the other thing is, it's not just Kyle Trask is the starting quarterback it's Leonard Fournette's a free agent and Ronald Jones is a free agent and Chris Godwin's a free agent we don't know the Rob Gronkowski is going to play next season so there's so many question

marks around this team but generally speaking you're going from an incredibly effective and efficient passing game with arguably the best quarterback in the NFL to big question mark. Right now I would expect significantly below average quarterback play from this offense, which makes it really hard when you've got, you know, potentially four pass catchers who were must start options in fantasy this season and Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski. Right now I have Leonard Fournette projected as RB12 just because the target share that he got and the rush share that he got, if he ends up a starter somewhere next season, I think he's going to have a really healthy role. But it's projecting to be

a really bad offense right now. And as far as the wide receivers go, assuming Chris Godwin's back and Mike Evans is healthy and Gronkowski and Fournette and Kyle Trask is quarterback, I don't have either of those wide receivers as a must-start option. I've got Chris Godwin as wide receiver 27 and Mike Evans as wide receiver 28. That's probably underrating Mike Evans especially, just because he's always a must start wide receiver and he's always scoring a lot of touchdowns, but he's really touchdown dependent.

And that's going to be especially true in a worse offense. And if he's not going to be, if you can't count on him for double digit touchdowns, it's going to be real, real hit or miss for him. So hashtag bring James home, right? No,

I would love to bring James home. That would, that would answer a lot of questions, and Mike Evans and Chris Godwin would both be top 15 or 20 wide receivers again. But as things stand right now, barring a significant upgrade at quarterback, this looks like a pretty, pretty awful offense. It could be.

A lot of questions still to be determined. A lot of situations still to be determined because of Brady's retirement, what that means for Gronk. What does Godwin do? There's already some talk about maybe Godwin going to Philadelphia. I saw some social media accounts tweeting that. What do they do with their backfield? They'll probably be in the Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson,

maybe Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. It could be somebody like Jameis. It could be Marcus Mariota. It could be Mitchell Trubisky. I've heard Jimmy Garoppolo. Maybe that's a destination for him to go to Tampa. Again, Kyle Trask if they stay in-house. So one of the bigger teams that we're going to follow this offseason,

which will obviously alter the projections for these guys and how things turn out for 2022. But there's an early look at the 2022 projections for some guys, for certain teams, for Heath and for Chris. And again, a early look at the 2022 projections for some guys, for certain teams, for Heath and for Chris. And again, a lot of conversations still to come about that

and the rankings process for a very, very long offseason that we will be talking about in the coming months. But don't forget next week, we're going to be Monday through Friday, heading into Super Bowl 56,

starting on Monday with our Senior Bowl recap. So you don't want to miss that episode. And thankfully, our buddy Adam Azer, probably wearing his Indochino suit, will be back. So for Chris Towers, Heath Connelly,

I'm Jamie Eisenberg. Thanks for listening and watching Fantasy Football.