Fantasy Football Today - 2023 Top 12! Plus Some Week 18 Leftovers (01/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: January 9, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  The NFL playoffs are set and we'll open the show discussing some of the first round matchups and making some picks. Then we'll tell you what you may have missed in Week 18 (8:00). Dave is concerned about the Packers offense going into 2023. What do the guys think about the way Russell Wilson finished the season? How about the bad luck that Jared Goff encountered in 2023? ... News and notes (17:15) and then we reveal our Top 12 overall players for 2023 (21:45). Everyone is taking Justin Jefferson #1 overall except for Adam who is going with Travis Kelce! What's the logic behind that pick? ... Should Jonathan Taylor be a Top 5 pick (32:00)? What do we make of Christian McCaffrey's splits with and without Elijah Mitchell (42:45)? Would Trey Lance be a problem for McCaffrey? ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. There it is. The season is over. We are on to the NFL playoffs, the postseason. And, of course, talking about playoffs. It did kind of sound like that unintentionally. And, of course, talking about 2023, we're going to unveil our top 12 players in PPR for 2023.

And we're actually doing a mock draft later today. So, yes, we are getting right into it. Adam Azer, Dave Richard, and Jamie Eisenberg. Heath Cummings is disappearing for two weeks, I believe. So it will be the three of us on the mic. Maybe we'll mix in some of the other guys, but for the upcoming weeks. But remember, three episodes per

week going forward. Good afternoon to Jamie and Dave. Jamie, how are you feeling? Just overall NFL playoffs, first round coming up. Where are you right now in the NFL playoff landscape? I think there's going to be a few lopsided games. I think San Francisco wins easily. I think the Bengals,

especially if there's no Lamar Jackson win easily. I think the bills, if there's no two, they win easily. And then there's going to be, I think a couple of really close or three really close games. I think you have the Bucks cowboys game should be close i think the giants vikings game should be close and the chargers jaguars game should be close so i'm literally looking forward to seeing how all

these things unfold i'm i'm really like immersed in this right now because i'm doing playoff challenge rankings and trying to map out who is going to advance the farthest because you want to accrue the most points. And so the teams that you think can advance from the wildcard round obviously have the most appeal because you're playing four games if you think a team can get to the Super Bowl. So San Francisco, to me, seems like a very logical team to gravitate toward because they have the easiest path to getting there. The Bengals and Bills are going to cross paths.

So if you like one of those teams to advance past the other and then get past the Chiefs, most likely, that could be four games of just crazy production too. So it's been fun. That story will be up probably by the time you're listening to this. So I'm excited about it. How about you, Dave? What are you thinking?

How many NFC teams have a quarterback that was taken with a first-round pick? A starting quarterback. In the NFL draft? In the NFC. Number one pick. Not in the NBA draft. No, in the NFL draft. The actual National Football League. We are a fantasy show.

Just the Giants. Giants and Geno Smith, first round? No, Geno was the second round pick. Geno was a two. Cousins was a four, I'm pretty sure. Jalen was a two. Brock Purdy was the last pick in the draft. So Daniel Jones is the only one. It's only Daniel Jones. I thought that that was interesting.

That is interesting. Wow. Alright, so I guess that means the Giants are the best team. How many of the quarterbacks in the playoffs have won a playoff game in the NFC? Brady. Has Brady won a playoff game? I think he's won a couple, yeah. Dak?

No, Dak. Dak's never won one? I don't think Dak has won a playoff game. Wow. Is it just Brady? I believe it's just Brady. Kirk Cousins, come on, guys. Kirk Cousins.

Kirk has won one game. Get down, Drew Brees. Let's go. Oh, that's right. That's right. Wait, so, Jamie, I guess you don't think... I'm just trying to discredit Kirk Cousins as much as possible. You don't think Lamar Jackson's going to Oh, that's right. That's right. Wait, so, Jamie, I guess you don't think – We're just trying to just credit Kirk Cousins as much as possible. You don't think Lamar Jackson is going to play, Jamie?

I don't know. I mean, I really don't know. So, I think the Bengals still win if Lamar Jackson plays. No disrespect to the Ravens, but obviously the Bengals are playing at a different level right now, and he's not going to be 100%. So, the timetable for the injury, this is four to six weeks. This will be week six of him expected to return.

You've got to be a little bit worried about Baltimore if there is no Lamar Jackson, especially if there's no Tyler Huntley as well. I think the Bengals are going to win the Super Bowl. I think that's... If I'm going to do some playoff challenges, it's going to be Bengals heavy. They certainly have

the toughest path, and they would have to, unlike the Bills, they'd have to go to Arrowhead and win. If the Bills and the Chiefs meet in the AFC Championship game, it'll be at a neutral site. But Burrow owns Padram home, so. Yeah, and I mean, they're just, they are playing phenomenal football right now. But I think they have a tough, both teams could have a tough draw, the Bills and the Bengals, if the starting quarterbacks for their opponents play seems unlikely for

Tua as we sit here on Monday. But there was a report that Lamar Jackson was, had a good chance to play in the playoffs. Well, there were actually different reports. Schefter, I believe said going into week 18, that Lamar Jackson should be on track to return.

Rappaport said the status is still unknown. And every time Harbaugh opens his mouth, you know, from, from the beginning of this until last week, it's gotten more and more pessimistic. All right. Well,

it's a lot to, a lot to consider. It's very, very exciting. Probably not going to be a great week of wildcard, but you never know. You never know. The NFL has a tendency to surprise us.

All right. So who is like the lowest seed on either side that you could see making a run to at least the conference championship? Tampa. The lowest seed on either side would be the Chargers as a five seed. Okay. So if they. I don't even know if the Chargers get out of the first round.

They may not get out of the first round. Tampa may not get out of the first round. Tampa may not either. They're underdogs at home. Three points to the Cowboys. If the Chargers beat the Jaguars, their one-point favorites, that game's Saturday night. Then we don't know who their opponent would be.

Put your money on Tampa. It's Cowboys minus three in Tampa. They're begging you to put your money on Tampa. Yeah, I don't buy that stuff. Why are they begging you to put your money on Tampa? Because they think Dallas is going to win by more than three. They are creating a market. For the last couple of weeks.

Is that really how Vegas works? I mean, they're creating a market. They want equal action on both sides. Sometimes they do. I mean, like, Tampa is so bad. It's crazy. They've played so poorly. It's crazy. Tom Brady was 13 of 17 for 84 yards and a touchdown at the Falcons yesterday. I mean, nobody's going to notice it.

Who cares what he did in week 18? He didn't have Mike Evans. He didn't have Leonard Pett. I know, but it's all year. They've been bad all year. They really, they're 8-9. Again, getting Ryan Jensen back, Cowboys look absolutely disastrous. They do look bad.

The Washington Commanders. Dax look bad. I think the other part of that is, you know, who do you feel more confident in? Tom Brady at home? Yeah. Or the Cowboys who haven't won a road playoff game, I think, maybe since you've been born.

No, I think I'm going to take the Bucs. All that said, I think I'm going to take the Bucs, but they're really not good. I mean, they're just not good. They're going to get destroyed in round two. Whoever, I mean, the Cowboys, at their best, the Cowboys are a lot better than the Bucs, I think. That I'll agree. But they're not playing their best right now.

Well, wait a minute, though. At the Bucs, well, I don't know if we've seen the Bucs best this year. Maybe. Their best this year is not as good as the Cowboys' best. It was Carolina. Their best was Carolina. So they're getting right at the right time. Right, but it was Carolina, a depleted Carolina.

They're not going to see anything like that the rest of the way. Correct. All right, so here's what we're going to do. We're going to go through some Week 18 observations. Just, you know, some scraps from the fantasy season. Some interesting things. We're going to...

Week 18. Week 18, yes. Very funny. I said Week 17 in the text yesterday. Hilarious. Amazing moment, yes. We're going to do week 17 in the text yesterday. Hilarious. Amazing moment, yes. We're going to do some news and notes. Aaron Rodgers' future, Michael Thomas' contract.

And then we're going to do our top 12 in PPR and see what we're thinking. I know we're not going to all agree on the number one pick. I don't know who Jamie and Dave have. It's not the same guy as me. But we could have three different number one picks. I think I'm giving you the first pick. I'm going to set it up that way so you actually do it. Actually, I'm giving you the first pick. I'm going to set it up that way. So you actually do it.

Actually, I would like for that to happen because I'm going to try to take I'm going to take Kelsey and we're going to see how it plays out. All right. Anyway, week 18 observations. Dave, what stood out to you in week 18? What stood out to me in week 18 was, well, I mean, I'm just going to go right to the Sunday night game. And how the Packers still couldn't get their act together.

Still couldn't call a great game against the Lions. I thought that the Lions would play tough no matter whether a playoff spot was on the line or not. But they were great. And this is a team that's really, really set up well for the future. I love the play that was negated by Jamison Williams. He had a catch-and-run touchdown that was called back by a penalty. That dude's going to be amazing. Really looking forward to seeing him in his second season,

not having to worry about his knee, his speed clearly not affected by the ACL tear. Goff played well. Their offensive line is such a huge strength for them this is a team the lions that are going to be very trendy very popular next year and they're going in the right direction well i think the packers are going to end up being one of the bottom feeders in 2023 they just they look like a mess they've got some great pieces on defense some of them are hotheads that push trainers out of the way like idiots. But I just

think that I'm already ready to bail on almost all the Packers players in fantasy drafts next year. And I'm already excited. And that includes Christian Watson. I'm excited about who's this quarterback? It's not Aaron Rodgers. It's Jordan Love. I don't know

if I'm ready to say that Jordan Love is an upgrade over Aaron Rodgers right now. And I'm not sure if he'sour is the best guy. I'm not sure if Malifour is the best guy to run that offense. So I'm a little nervous about Christian Watson. That's a takeaway for me. I'm probably going to draft Jameson Williams over Christian Watson, especially if Watson doesn't have Rodgers. If Watson does have Rodgers, though, you know, Rodgers just falls in love with that number one guy and looks for him in the end zone all the time and I was I was watching the game with a couple friends last night and I just I was like I'm gonna draft so much Christian Watson you were ready to take Christian I love well yeah I've always kind of wanted you were ready to draft

two I remember doing it in an hour two hours yeah. Yeah. How about you, Jamie? Week 18 observations? Good for Lovie Smith to take a dump on the team right before he got fired by winning that game. Would you say he took a number two? He did take a number two for number two. And now they've got the number two. All-time Bears legend, Lovie Smith. I don't know. There's so much not to really take away from

week 18 it was really a lot of bad football all right uh across the board i don't know i mean you could clearly see how much these teams need their quarterbacks we ran a graphic yesterday on hq of the guys who were starting yesterday of and it didn't even include joe fl, you know, Skylar Thompson, Nathan Peterman, um, Davis Webb, Colman, uh, what's his name? David Blau, you know, just so awful. Um, Anthony Brown, you know, just, just, it's so hard to, to, to see what these teams are. I will say this though. It's, it was awesome to see the Falcons get Tyler Alger, a thousand yards rushing. Um, I think he's going to be a very interesting player next year, depending on how they address their backfield. And as Heath has pointed out and makes a lot of sense, you know, it may not be 2023,

but these guys that get drafted late or in the case of James Robinson, an undrafted free agent that have these, you know, standout seasons. So take this into account with Damian Pearson and Tyler Algier. They don't usually last very long as standout fantasy options. So we'll see how much their teams remain committed to them, and Tyler Algier, they don't usually last very long as standout fantasy options. So we'll see how much their teams remain committed to them, how much their systems still favor them. But both had really good rookie seasons, and we'll see what happens to them moving forward.

Yeah, there was also just a really bad fantasy week, even for the great players that were playing for stuff. I mean, Mahomes, Saturday, for example, the Chiefs, the two games, Chiefs, Raiders, Jags, Titans, Mahomes and Lawrence were not good. Henry was okay, but ETN was terrible.

Christian Kirk thought he would play great. He was great. He was great. He got him. I thought Zach Moss was going to have a big game. He did. Good matchup. But who were your top five quarterbacks? Huh? Who were your top five quarterbacks in Week 18?

I think four of them were bad. Yes, they were all bad. Well, not Josh Allen. Allen was great, and the other four were bad. Yep. Mahomes, Lawrence, Hurts. We said this, though, that Hurts could be a little limited, you know, just to be careful with it.

You know, we thought that there was a chance of, you know, some of these situations arising. You know, Justin Herbert was very up in the air because of how much would they play and they played more than we expected. Yeah. Way more. Uh, I'm going to just shout out a few things and you tell me if they mean anything. Ronald Jones led the team in carries, had a rushing touchdown.

What the hell? That's the first thing you're going to shout out. But there was a game they were playing for something, but okay. We'll see what happens in the playoffs. Uh, they also did happens in the playoffs. They also did ring around the Rosie. So I don't know how serious they took that game. What?

They were playing for the one seed. They took it seriously. Deontay Johnson, 10 targets, had an almost touchdown. He was a yard or two away, but he finishes the season with 882 yards, no touchdowns on 147 targets. Wow. Most targets by a mile for a receiver without a touchdown. He did catch a two-point conversion. So he got a third of a touchdown.

Mack Jones scored over 20 fantasy points in his last three games. The Bengals, Dolphins, and Bills were his opponents. Mack Jones. Give him an offense coordinator. And a receiver. Russell Wilson. Two games without Nathaniel Hackett, and they made some changes.

They used some bigger personnel to try to set up their play-action game. How about this? In the first, I guess, 15 games, first 16 weeks of the season, Denver was 25th in play-action rate. In their last two games after firing Hackett, they were eighth. And Wilson had two of his four best games. I think that means something. I really do.

I think that this... How come he's not a coach? I would expect them to hire a quality coach or at least have a quality play caller. And I think Russ is a bounce-back candidate next year. Yeah, I had forgotten that they had the Dolphins' first-round pick from the Bradley Chubb trade, so they do have some capital,

but they still have very limited draft capital if they want Sean Payton. Jared Goff, Azerstad here, he led the NFL with eight completions to the one-yard line, including one last night to Kalief Raymond. After those eight completions, six of them were followed by Jamal Williams rushing touchdowns. One of them was followed by a Jamal Williams fumble and won by a touchdown pass. So eight completions down to the one-yard line for golf. Most in the NFL, only one of them was a touchdown.

Jamie, if four of them, or only one of them ended up with a touchdown pass after, if four of them had become touchdowns instead of one, he would have been QB six for the season and QB eight per game. Do you have in front of you, don't go look for it because it doesn't really matter, but do you have in front of you, how many of those were on the road? How many of those throws or how many of those touchdowns? How many of those situations where they ended up on the one yard line was on the road? Because he was great at home. A number of them. Most passing touchdowns of any quarterback this season at home. And he was obviously very mediocre as a fantasy quarterback on the road. Only one good game on the

road, which was at Carolina two games ago. Or three games ago at this point. I think he's going to be, Dave said it, they're going to be a trendy pick in a lot of ways. And I think Goff from fantasy perspective will be trendy as well. It's a good offensive line. It's a receiving core that's clearly going to get a boost with Jamison. I'd like to see what they do with Chark if they bring him back as well. Um, not that they need him if Jamison is Jamison, but you know, it's, uh, it, it, it's, it's a quarterback that if you do decide to wait, and especially if you want to take two guys later, uh, a golf Russell Wilson pairing could certainly work a golf Trey Lance, you know, if you're looking for upside, can certainly work.

So Goff was pretty consistent. Again, mostly at home, but pretty consistent. So with what's coming for them, again, and I'll say this, like I said on the last time we talked about this, keep Ben Johnson, please, if he doesn't get a head coaching opportunity. But he was so good for this Lions offense from the end of last season through the majority of this year. Okay, and I think one thing that's going to scare people a little bit

is we saw Eli Mitchell play yesterday, and he had two rushing touchdowns. McCaffrey had a receiving touchdown. But if people don't pick McCaffrey as their number one running back, it will be, I think, because they're worried about a split. So we did see it yesterday. And McCaffrey, I'll give you the numbers a little bit later when we talk about our top 12s, but his numbers with Eli Mitchell healthy

and without, it might honestly be twice as many fantasy points. I didn't do the averages, but it's insane. Not as insane as this incredible deal you're getting on Sportsline. Use the code TACKLE. Sign up right now for Sportsline and use the code TACKLE

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Then sign up and use the code TACKLE, and you get your first month for 99 cents. All right, news and notes. Aaron Rodgers is uncertain about his future. He'll make about $60 million if he plays next year. Rich Sirianni said Jalen Hurts was hurting bad. And yeah, he scored eight and a half fantasy points. He ran only 13 yards, but...

Is Rich Sirianni Nick Sirianni's dad? Yeah, Rich Sirianni is... Nick Sirianni said Jalen Hurts was hurting bad. And it's a good thing they got the bye. It was dicey. Mike Williams left with a back injury. It doesn't bad. And it's a good thing they got the bye. It was dicey. Mike Williams left with a back injury. It doesn't seem that serious right now. Seems like he has a good chance to play.

But Joey Bosa may have aggravated his groin injury for the Chargers. So right now you got me thinking, did I say the right Bosa? Because I said the wrong Sirianni. I think I did. John Bosa. Yeah, we're going to have to check in with Papa Bear. Tyreek Hill left with an injury. got me thinking, did I say the right Bosa? Because I said the wrong Sirianni. I think I did. John Bosa, the dad. Yeah, we're going to have to check in with Papa Bear. Tyreek Hill left with an injury. He's okay?

I don't know. I mean, he kept coming back in. He was actually on the field for their last punt return. I think it was to set up the... He was returning it, yeah. The field goal. He didn't actually return the kick, but... No, it would be he was back there. I'm going to guess he's fine. Okay. Dalvin Cook... I interviewed him on CBS Sports HQ afterwards, so I'm going to guess he's fine. Okay. Dalvin Cook left with a knee injury, but he returned.

Let's give a shout-out to Russ Yeast, rookie safety for the Rams. He was hospitalized with a pulmonary contusion. He's doing well. He's in stable condition, and we're thankful for that. Good. The Bears have the first pick in the draft because they lost and the Texans won miraculously and they went for two. But you know what? Cautionary tale.

This happened to the Lions 10-ish years ago, whatever it was, and the Raiders got the number one pick and they took Jamarcus Russell and the Lions took Calvin Johnson. What happened to the Jets and the Jaguars? But the Jets weren't week 18. I thought it was week 18. The Jets won in like weeks. No, sorry. It would have been week 17. It was like 15 and 16. They won weeks

15 and 16. Don't quote me on that unless you know for sure. It was either 14 and 15 or 15 and 16. They beat the Rams. They beat the Rams and then they won the week after. They won the week after. They lost week 17 though. But yes, they ended up with Zach Wilson instead of Trevor Lawrence. Oops.

And then the Texans fired Lovey Smith and the Browns fired defensive coordinator Joe Woods. And Dave, the Saints restructured Michael Thomas' contract. What did you make of that? It's to make it easier for his cap hit to be spread over the next two seasons. He will not be a Saint next year. I don't believe. Tom Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys in his career.

I did notice from Week 18 that DK Metcalf had a terrible game facing a lot of Jalen Ramsey. And he struggles in tough matchups. He does. So next year, the schedules are already out. Not the weeks, but the opponents are out.

He's going to face Arizona twice. He's never good against them. He's going to face Jalen Ramsey twice. He's going to face San Francisco twice. He's going to face Arizona twice. He's never good against them. He's going to face Jalen Ramsey twice. He's going to face San Francisco twice. He's going to face Trayvon Diggs. He's going to face the Eagles cornerbacks. He's going to face Denzel Ward. If J.C. Horn becomes a great corner, he's facing him. He's going to face the Ravens cornerbacks.

He's going to face Jeff Okuda. He's going to face him with a rookie quarterback halfway through the season. Possibly. He already torched Jeff Okuda this year. He's had some good games in some of these tough matchups, but it does really cap his ceiling. So it is something to think about for DK Metcalf. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, our top 12 players in PPR for 2023.

All right, guys. Was this a difficult exercise for you, Jamie? How would you characterize making your top 12 for 2023? Yeah, I mean, it's always a little difficult because there's so many things that are still uncertain. For example, if you told me Josh Jacobs is back with the

Raiders and their quarterback is maybe Tom Brady with an improved offensive line, he would be a first-round pick. But the fact that he's a free agent and if he returns to the Raiders, we have no idea who the quarterback might be or the line might look like there there's reasons to be concerned about that Saquon Barkley where is he playing next year um so there there's there's questions I think with a lot of players you mentioned it when we talked about this last week if Tony Pollard is back

with the Cowboys and Zeke is gone and there's nobody of significance playing alongside him or in the same backfield with him he has first round potential if not top is gone and there's nobody of significance playing alongside him or in the same backfield with him. He has first round potential, if not top five potential. So there's lots of things that still have to be answered. But for right now, uh, just going on what we knew,

what we know from a year ago, you know, I, I think you can feel pretty confident, probably about 10 guys. And then, you know, just kind of hope you get the other,

other two to five, whatever case may be. Right. All right, let's do it. Who's number one, guys? It's the Browns DST. The new coach? You like it?

Mystery coach. This is PPR. I guess it doesn't really matter, but almost all of our drafts, when we do drafts, the three of us, plus nine other people, are three receiver PPR leagues, but I don't think that would change anything if it were to receiver or three receiver, but who's number one for you. It's Kelsey for me. As I said earlier,

I'm taking Justin Jefferson without a doubt. I'm not messing around. And I might, I might change my mind in non-PPR. Here it is. He's the running back guy is going. Well, listen, I gotta, I gotta be honest with you. Um. Something might be wrong with me. And I might see a doctor. I might see a therapist. We've had a lot of talks about having counselors at our office lately, Jamie. I only have five running backs in my top 12. Wow.

I've never, never had this feeling before. So it's kind of new to me. And it's kind of exciting to have a wide receiver at number one. And I like it. Justin Jefferson, at least 18 PPR points per game each of the past two seasons. He gets a ton of targets, scores a ton of touchdowns, really good player, etc., etc. I think it's the safest pick in the draft. Justin Jefferson.

Yeah. Unfortunately, he was not even close to as good as Cooper Cup. I understand the drawbacks with Cooper Cup, but when Cooper Cup had Matthew Stafford, I mean, you take away the last game that Cooper Cup played, it was with a backup quarterback. Cup was a lot better. He was like two to three points better per game than Justin Jefferson

when Cup had Stafford. Um, but I understand, you know, cups older Rams offenses. If he wouldn't even, I mean, their coach is going to be right.

Who's their coach. Who's their quarterback. Cause if the coach leaves, does the quarterback stay? There's a lot. I'm meeting with the media today, so I'm sure he'll answer that question. Yeah.

Um, all right. So why don't we do our top six, then we'll do seven through 12. Jamie, give me your top six. Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Eckler,

Jonathan Taylor, Jamar Chase, and Cooper Cup. Jefferson, McCaffrey, Eckler, who'd you say? Taylor?

Taylor, Chase, and Cup. Taylor, Chase, Cup. That's Jamie's. Dave? We have the exact same top six with one exception. I have Saquon Barkley where Jamie has Jamar Chase. So, Justin Jefferson,

CMC, Eckler, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Cooper Cup. And I have Heath's too, Adam, if you'd like that. Yeah. Heath's top six are Justin Jefferson, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Cup, Saquon Barkley, Austin Eckler,

and Jonathan Taylor. Okay. So, similar names. Jamie does not have Barkley in his top six, seven. You got him? Barkley? He is, I believe, eighth behind Travis Kelsey. Okay.

Nobody has Kelsey in their top six except for me. He's nine for me. I'm sorry. I have Tyreek Hill at him. Okay. Nobody has Kelsey in their top six except for me. He's nine for me. I'm sorry. I have Tyree Killett. Okay. I have Kelsey one. So Jamie goes Jefferson. Everybody goes,

Jamie and Dave, we'll leave Heath out of this. Jamie and Dave go Jefferson, McCaffrey, Eckler, Taylor, one through four. And then five for Jamie is Chase.

Six is Cup. Five for Dave is Barkley. And six is Cup. So I'm guessing you have Chase seven, Dave? Yes, I do. And for me, I go Kelsey, McCaffrey, Jefferson, Eckler, Chase, Cup. So why should I not take Travis Kelsey with the number one pick? I mean, the clear answer is age.

And at some point there's going to be a fall off. And so, you know, the risk that you have by doing that is, you know, putting yourself in the situation, which could also happen to Austin Eckler based on his age at his position, who's going to be 28. But I mean, look, the guy's been an unbelievable stud. As we've noted time and time again on HQ, just because I've seen the graphic,

he is six points per game better than anybody else in PPR this season at his position. And so if you take a touchdown away from him on a weekly basis, then he's back to the field. So it's easy to see why you're doing it. But I guess the concern would be as, as he continues to advance into his thirties, there's going to be a situation where the cliff comes and father time is undefeated.

So I'm just a little bit nervous about that. Me too. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you just, you just have to weigh the risk of it all. I understand.

I kind of feel like you'd be making a lot more sense. He's a little older. Sorry, go ahead. He's a little older. Imagine if the last six games he had played were the first six games of this season. What would we be saying about Travis Kelsey? Didn't score in any of them.

Did have 10 for 105 against Houston. And then 6 for 113 against Seattle, so he took advantage of two really favorable matches, but otherwise, 11 or fewer PPR points. Yeah, look at the last three games of 2021. He was terrible, and then he went into the playoffs. And he averaged 100 yards per game in the playoffs. So I would say that I would like to see him finish strong.

So that's the first thing that I'm going to watch for. Yes, me too, me too. Yeah, we want to see if he rocks it in the playoffs. And if he does, that'll make you feel better about taking him with a first-round pick. And it's just a matter of, you know, how badly do I want that advantage at tight end over the rest of the league? Well, the other part of the show is... Adam, you want it bad enough, you're taking him number one. But I think that comes down to also, you know, you get assigned your draft pick you know several leagues obviously you can choose your draft pick

you get assigned your draft we're all saying he's a first round pick yeah so whether it's you know in dave's case i think he was the lowest guy i remember correctly from our sunday show um and and i think i was the highest of of the three of us uh at seven i think he was was somewhere right right around there um so you're you're just, I'm just trusting the positional advantage that I'm getting six spots more than where I would take him if what these people are telling me to take him, where these analysts are telling me to take him. You know, and so if you pick third and you feel he's the best player, then that's the guy you take.

You know, I mean, that's just the nature of how you draft. You know, so it's understanding what's available to you in round two and three and four, you know, just how you're going to build out your team. And so that's, that's the decision you have to make. If you really want Kelsey that badly and you have the first pick, then you take him with the3 turn. And that's whether you're picking one, two, or three, whatever you want to take Kelsey, you got to see who's available there. Because if you're telling me that, you know, if I had taken Kelsey number one this year for 2022, I could have taken Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins and A.J. Brown and all those guys at the end of round two and three.

And that would have been great. I don't know who's going to be there this year. That's why I want to do this mock draft and see how it plays out. I'm more concerned about running back. If I don't take a running back at one, two, or three or whatever, and I take Kelsey, who's left for me in rounds two and three if I want to go hero RB and get a great one?

Are they all gone by then? I feel like I'll be able to get one or two really good wide receivers that I'm excited about. I don't know about running back, but that's what it is. Obviously, this is all subject to change, but the most important thing is going to be do I feel good about the running backs and wide receivers at the 2-3 turn because I know I'm not going to feel good about the tight ends.

Two things. Number one, I'm going to give you some names of running backs. You tell me if you'd be excited to take any of them at the 2-3 turn. Nick Chubb. Yes. Dalvin Cook. Maybe, yeah. Tony Pollard. Cam Akers, maybe. No, not Akb. Yes. Dalvin Cook. Maybe. Tony Pollard.

Cam Akers, maybe? No, not Akers. Okay. I think those are the types of running backs that you'll find at the 2-3 turn. Yeah, I don't know. I think if you commit to this, though, you almost commit to just not a 0RB, but a modified 0RB. You look at the receivers that are coming back.

And that's where the second part of what I wanted to say comes into play. I think receiver is going to be really juicy when you get to rounds three four five six and we said that this year too we did and there were and but there were a lot of veteran receivers in that mix i love so many guys in the in the 2022 class now we already talked about i already talked about jameson williams and Williams and Christian Watson at the top of the show. That's one you said you weren't taking. One of them, listen, I will take Watson if he falls enough. I'm just telling you I would take Jameson Williams first. I'm not going to be in love with Watson if he doesn't have Rodgers. I think you're right. I'm not drafting any backers.

I would change my mind if Aaron Rodgers is back. Look, and so for now, Aaron Rodgers is there. I would take him if he's there in round five in our draft today, I would take him. But there's others in the class besides those two. I think you'll find a lot of those guys. I think you'll find a lot of other receivers that will be a good value in that range. You want to call it the dead zone because that's where Allen Robinson

and DJ Moore went. You could say that for wide receivers. But I think that'll give you some confidence to try something extreme, like taking Travis Kelsey early on. Okay. All right. So let's do six through seven through 12. And Jamie, your first six were Jefferson, McCaffrey, Eckler, Taylor, Chase,

Cup, timeout, actually. Let's talk about Jonathan Taylor here. And, you know, was it just, what happened? I mean, they were the second worst offense in football. Their line was really bad. Why the confidence in him to take him once again, Jamie? And then I'll ask you the same thing, Dave, as a top five pick, Jonathan Taylor. He's 24.

He's a year moved from being the best running back in football. And I think if you're the Colts, you know, you still have some pieces on the offensive line to build around, the biggest one being Quentin Nelson, who still has a chance to be an all-pro guy this year. The quarterback obviously has got to be addressed, and I think that's the clear focus of this team, along with getting a new head coach. So I'm confident that they'll make those proper adjustments. But really, it's more about buying into the player at his age, at his ability level.

And I still think that he's got the upside to be the number one running back in fantasy or certainly in the conversation. He's got to be involved more in the passing game to get to that level again. But he just has so much upside if everything is right around him. And again, that's what we're talking about here. That's why it's early rankings. If they come back with another Derek Carr replacement for Matt Ryan and don't find the right head coach because nobody wanted to take that job, I'd be concerned, let's say, if it's Harbaugh, for example.

So bad coach, bad quarterback, don't address the line, then yeah, Taylor's not worth taking the top five. Right. We're assuming that they do a decent job at quarterback, do address the offensive line, and they have a good play caller. Just a reminder of what Jonathan Taylor's upside is. In 2021, he averaged 21.2 PPR points per game. Yeah.

That's basically what Justin Jefferson averaged this year for some context. Okay, so let's do 7 through 12 now. Who you got, Jamie, starting at 7? Kelsey at 7, Tyreek Hill at 8, Saquon at 9, Stephon Diggs at 10, Devontae Adams 11, and Kenneth Walker 12. Okay. So, Kelsey, Hill, Barkley, Diggs,

Devontae, and Walker. Ken Walker. Okay. Dave, who do you got? We have the same names in our top 12, just a different order. Chase is seventh for me. Stephon Diggs is eighth. Tyreek Hill is ninth. You can see that I've got a big wide receiver run through the middle of the first round.

Devontae Adams is 10th. Now I've got Kelsey at 11 and Kenny Walker at 12. Okay. I think I have everybody the same, except I have mixing in there and not Walker. So I went, uh, seven through 12 for me was,

who is six for me cup. Sorry. Yeah. Six for me was cup. So I went Tyreek Hill, um, seven, Stefan digs.

Jonathan Taylor is nine, Barkley, 10, Mixon, 11, Adams, 12 for Adams. Just, you know,

got to see what, what the situation, who's, who the quarterback is. And I do think I didn't have a chance to break this down, but I do have a feeling there's a pretty big difference between Adams with Renfro and Waller on the field and without them. Cause he was going crazy while they were hurt, right?

I mean, yeah, I think that was... I don't want to judge that until I see who the quarterback is because that's such a huge situation, I think. I mean, he had a pretty huge game with Stidham against the 49ers and Waller and Renfro were on the field. Yeah, for sure.

And it's not like he was bad at the start of the season either. All right, so there are so many running backs. I think we're developing a consensus here of McCaffrey, Eckler, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley as the top four. And then it gets pretty interesting after that. You guys have Ken Walker as your RB5, right?

He's the fifth one out? I think that's a team that has the ability to reshape their roster. I shouldn't say reshape, improve their roster with the draft capital that they have that they got in the Russell Wilson trade. I think that's a team that has the ability to reshape their roster. I shouldn't say reshape, improve their roster, you know, with the draft capital that they have that they got in the Russell Wilson trade. While if they didn't want to take a quarterback and just say, okay, we're going to go with Gino for the next two, three years,

and then maybe find a quarterback after that, then it's all at the offensive line and the defense. And so, you know, the, the Kenneth Walker, Kenneth Walker, the third, Ken Walker can be just an absolute stud for the next several years. But the, there's two guys I think that can crack. I should say there's three or four guys I think that can crack the top 12 for me. Ramondre Stevenson with the right offensive coordinator and no Damian Harris. Tony Pollard without Ezekiel Elliott and no significant competition.

A healthy Brees Hall if he's 100% ready to go by training camp, and a healthy Javante Williams with the right offense around him too. Those guys can all potentially crack the top 12 if you want to go heavy at running back. You didn't say Mixon. Mixon, I think, is in the conversation, especially if you look at what he's done

the last three games as a receiver. 20 targets, 17 catches. That guy, with the touchdown potential that he has, would be a top five running back. Yes. Yeah. I mean, I'm very conflicted on him. He's RB six per game this year. And just unfortunately, so much of it was the Carolina game where he scored five touchdowns. He's pretty disappointing other than that. He had two games all year with more than 18 points. And honestly, it just comes down to one thing. He really sucked as a runner. 3.9 yards per carry. That is really terrible. But he had 60 catches in 14 games. I mean, the role in the

passing game was all season long. But the problem for Mixon is he's not their third down back. So all it would take is Burrow not throwing to him as much on first and second down. And then what do you have? You've got an inefficient, you got Najee Harris, right, on a better offense. He should score more touchdowns. I think that was a huge problem for Mixon. He scored nine touchdowns this year. Five of them came in one game. For most of the season, he just wasn't scoring. But I just, I think

the only thing that's going to hold people back, and they can admit it, or they can make fun of me, or whatever, is definitely how inefficient he was. You know, if this guy had been averaging four and a half yards per carry, he would have had a monster season. I just don't know if he is that kind of runner. I'm almost running out of hope for him.

He's had a pretty below average career as a rusher. I always put it on the offensive line. Then they went out and they got three new starters and nothing changed. He should have had a monster year. He was lucky to finish his RB6. In terms of being on a bet,

like his offense is going to be better than Ken Walker's offense. Um, you know, he's going to have, you know, so like he's already set up. He's just kind of not sexy right now, Joe Mixon,

but he's, he's also safe. If he keeps the rear arc of when you got to start to worry, he'll be 27. Yeah, I think he's, I'm not really worried about him. Yeah,

no, no, no. I don't think you have to be worried about this year but he's getting there fine from a dynasty standpoint but that's that's one thing but he should still be able to have one more great year but right but all those things great that you said adam i still don't think he's going to make it back to the turn at two three and be one of the right no chance there's no way no so there's going to be enough demand for him where he'll go

at worst the middle of the second round. Yeah, that would be a terrific pick. For me, he's a top 15 pick. He's just behind Ken Walker. He's a little further down for me. I would take him at this point over Derrick Henry, and I would take him over Josh Jacobs. I would not. So you guys had the same

12 players, right? Yes. And you both started... No, that's all right. Too many names. You both started Jefferson... We'll just tell you in mid-August. Jefferson, it's just too many. People get confused. Trust me. Jefferson, McCaffrey,

Eckler, Taylor. That was your top four. Dave went Barkley Cup. Jamie went Chase Cup to round out the top six. Then it was, you know, same names but different order. For Jamie, it was Kelsey, Tyreek Hill, Barkley, Diggs, Adams, and Ken Walker.

For Dave, it was Chase at seven, then Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Adams, Kelsey, Ken Walker. So how about the difference with Barkley here? Dave, you had Barkley fourth. Jamie, you had him eighth? Ninth? Yeah, ninth. Yeah, it's just the uncertainty right now.

Fifth for Dave. My bad. Fifth for Dave, ninth for Jamie. Okay, so you're saying it's the uncertainty of his status. Dave, your thoughts on Barkley at five? I'm kind of assuming that the Giants find a way to keep him. And worst case scenario, he's back on the Giants, working with Brian Dable, catching passes

and taking handoffs from Daniel Jones. This year, that worked out pretty well for him. He had over 15 PPR points per game. I think he's got a chance to do a little and letting the offense stay around Saquon Barkley, who will be in his age 26 season. That's how I'm viewing him. I think he's still going to be one of those few running backs that will get a ton of work and be very productive for fantasy managers.

And you know me, I don't want to miss out on those types of players. Just don't overpay him. That does not work out well for those guys. No, and they will um and it depends on what you think overpay means for a running back anything over a dollar i mean if they could do that grita is the starter three years if they could do a shorter deal like three years and i would franchise tag because the the the i don't know is for certainty but i would imagine just as running back deals have come down, it's not going to cost them as much because they have to pay Daniel Jones

this point. Yeah. Um, yeah, they do. Tyree kill is interesting. You know, the end of season numbers are going to be skewed by all the Skylar Thompson

stuff and even a little bit of the Teddy Bridgewater stuff. But if you want the 17 game pace for Ty, for Tyreek Hill in only the game that Tua started and finished, it was 119 catches, 1,768 yards, and 10 touchdowns on 173 targets. That's a top-five player right there. Yes.

That's why I only had two running backs ahead of him, I think. Are you sure we know who his quarterback is going to be next year? No. Well, yes, unless the concussions are so bad that he has to retire. But I don't think they're going to change quarterbacks. I assume it's going to be Tua. They tried to last year. I assume it's going to be Tua.

They don't even have a first-round pick, right? I'm ranking them as if it's Tua. They't even have a first-round pick, right? I'm ranking them as if it's Tua. They don't have a first-round pick, do they? It could be better, and it could also get worse. And I think some people might be a little squeamish of getting Tyreek, knowing what his numbers—what was his 17-game pace in games not started by Tua? I didn't do that. It's so skewed because it's—

Right, there's a lot of Skylar Thompson in there and that's terrible. But even with Teddy, fine. What's his pace with Teddy? It can't be as good as what it was with Tua. Can it? I don't know. I mean,

the Minnesota game was great. Yeah. The Minnesota game was great, but that was a Thompson Teddy. Right. Yeah. Teddy wasn't so bad for him. So Skylar Thompson was,

and that's, that's about it. Um, McCaffrey, let's finish up with, with some McCaffrey talk him. So Skyler Thompson was, and that's about it. McCaffrey, let's finish up with some McCaffrey talk here. So let me get you the numbers, right? So he was number two per game in PPR, number four per game in non-PPR.

Alright, so he played seven games with Elijah Mitchell. No, seven games without Elijah Mitchell. He scored 25.8 or more PPR fantasy points in five of those seven games. That's incredible. So let's just round 25.8 or more PPR fantasy points in five of those seven games. That's incredible. So let's just round up. 26 or more PPR fantasy points

in five of seven games without Mitchell. Four games he played with Mitchell, he did not score more than 18 points in any game. You know, coincidence probably a little bit, but there's something to that. So how do you guys factor that in, Dave, the Elijah Mitchell problem? It's a significant issue,

but I don't think it's enough to make you run away from taking Christian McCaffrey. No, but you're taking him too. I'm not running away from him, but is that a case taken? If you want me to build you a case against Christian McCaffrey, there's three prongs to it. Number one, it's that Elijah Mitchell or somebody else will take work away from him.

Number two, you can't forget about what happened to McCaffrey in 2021 and 2020. I'm not using that as an excuse anymore, obviously, but it's something that's got to be in the back of your mind. It'll probably just make you want to draft Elijah Mitchell when you get to round nine or round 10, just so you've got that backfield locked up. That's not a bad idea. And number three, what's been the track record of the running back position since Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco year after year after year, it's been a different dude leading the way. Now, if there was ever a guy to break that trend, it's Christian McCaffrey, but it's still a trend that you got to pay attention to. And if you're okay with all three of those things,

especially making sure that you get Elijah Mitchell in, like what I said, round eight, round nine, in that range, you're taking him, and you're probably not thinking twice about it. Okay. Jamie, what do you think about the Mitchell splits? I don't think it's enough of a sample size to say that that would have been the norm, you know, especially after Garoppolo got hurt, you know, so would they have leaned on both guys? You could probably make the case that the answer is yes to make sure that their run game was just

carrying them. But he's been such a reliable weapon for a young quarterback like Purdy. Think about their quarterback situation is going to be next year. Young quarterback or young quarterback. They're moving on from Garoppolo. So the Trey Lance-Brock Purdy competition could either very much benefit McCaffrey if it's Purdy again, but it could also be another guy that's going to run the ball as well with Trey Lance.

We've never seen McCaffrey with a running quarterback like that this young. It was Cam Newton at the end of his tenure when he was with McCaffrey. There's a lot of things at play here with him, but I think you just look at what he's been able to do in the, again, another small

sample size, but the small sample size with the 49ers. And you just got to love that they spent so much capital to go get him. And depending on how this ends this year, if it's a Super Bowl run, which I think a lot of people expect, why would you go away from that? Okay.

Do you think it's going to be a Super Bowl run, picking the Niners? I think Niners get there, yeah. I'm going to take the Eagles, but I don't know how healthy Hertz is going to be in two weeks. That's obviously a huge deal, but they're better. What's that? Yeah. I just think they're better than the i just think they're the best team on paper but if they if it's be a real

shame i mean i'm not going to shed a tear but it would be a real shame if jalen hurts isn't fully healthy because they they are a true they were a truly elite team with him healthy and eagle a 49ers eagles matchup will be a ton of fun to watch, but I don't even know if that's going to be a top three potential matchup in the overall playoffs. I think just the AFC has a lock on those

big-time matchups that you just must watch. We might have a shot at getting two of them. In fact, we probably will get two of them. We could get that Bengals-Bills game in the second round, and then the winner of that versus Kansas City for the chance to go to the Super Bowl. I'll be glued.

I wouldn't discount a potential Jaguars or Chargers-Chiefs game. I mean, it would be very tough for those teams, but those could be terrific games as well. Yeah, I'm fired up. I mean, I can't wait. Are you fired up or fired? Because there was a coach that was just fired. Oh, who?

Cliff Kingsbury is out. Get out of here. Not a shocker. That's pretty big news. It was expected, though. It was expected. He just got a contract extension this time last year. Not this time, this time, but, you know.

Last year got a contract extension. Now he's fired. Oh, boy. It was 10 months ago. Good work, Arizona. Good work. Where are you going to draft DeAndre Hopkins in an hour when we do our draft? When he's playing for

which team? Let's see. Where is he going to be playing for next year? I think he gets traded. I do too. That'd be a good thing because he was first round quality when he came back with Kyler. His points per game were amazing. Yeah.

I think he's a third round pick. Agreed. Okay. All right, everybody. We recorded at 11 today. I think we're going to do 11 a. Yeah. You know, I think he is a third round pick. Agreed. Okay. All right, everybody. We, uh, we recorded at 11 today. I think we're going to do 11 a.m. Eastern on Mondays and Wednesdays and Thursdays,

10 a.m. Eastern. If you want to watch us live. So you can always check the YouTube channel. We'll have the schedule up for you. It's 11 a.m. Yeah. Seriously.

Why do we have to change it around all the time? Oh, we can do that. That's fine. I don't care. And then we can go get lunch afterwards. Well, for Heath, it's dinnertime at 11. So that's a tough thing for him. It'll be fine. Hey, by the way. Oh, we can do that. That's fine. I don't care. Then we can go get lunch afterwards. Well, for Heath, it's dinner time at 11,

so that's a tough thing for him. He'll be fine. Hey, by the way, man, I don't know if we're going to have a show next Monday, by the way. It might be Tuesday because of MLK, but go ahead. Props to everybody watching and listening. We're recording this literally the day after the season ended. You're a real one

if you're paying attention to fantasy right now. Oh, yeah. Props to you, man. You want to win your league next year. That's why you're a real one if you're paying attention to fantasy right now props to you man, you want to win your league next year, that's why you're paying attention so, glad you're here very much appreciated we'll talk to you on Wednesday everybody, see ya