Fantasy Football Today - 2026 Fantasy Rankings: Players 13-18 in PPR Leagues (06/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 24, 2026

The FFT Crew is back to break down the next tier of consensus fantasy football rankings, focusing on players 13-18 in PPR leagues. The guys start with some news and notes (4:37) including the new Kyle Pitts contract extension. Jumping into the rankings they start with De’Von Achane (14:45). How will his new QB Malik Willis impact his pass catching and fantasy value? Next they talk Justin Jefferson (22:01) and the high floor at his current ADP. A couple of 2nd year running backs come up next including Omarion Hampton & Ashton Jeanty (33:05). Would you take a chance with their potential upside, or lean towards safer RB options later in the 2nd/3rd round? We finish up with George Pickens (56:50) in a conversation of ADP risers from one year to the next.Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Up to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Yesterday we looked at the top 12 players in our consensus rankings. Today and tomorrow, the next 12. So 13 through 18 in the overall consensus PPR. rankings right now on fantasy football today. And who would that be? Devon A-chan as the number 13 overall player. He was RB 5 per game last year, but it was a strong year for running backs

with five running backs averaging more than 20 PPR fantasy points per game. Justin Jefferson, he was not wide receiver 5 last year. No, he was wide receiver 30 per game in full PPR. 41st per game in non-PPR. He is clocking in at number 14 overall. Amarian Hampton, number 13 running. running back per game last season. He had a broken ankle in week five, came back and split carries, but he had a lot of

catches. He is number 15 in the overall rankings. Ashton Genty, not such a great year for Ashton Genty. He was RB 15 per game, but, you know, struggled 3.7 yards per carry. Second worst yards before contact per carry in the NFL. He's number 16. Derek Henry was awesome. He was top seven running back on a per game basis, and George Pickens was awesome.

Those guys are 17 and 18. So A-Chann, Jefferson, Hampton, Genti, Henry Pickens, plus Richard Eisenberg and Cummings. Hello, Richard Eisenberg and Cummings. The law firm, hey, Dave. Don't draft us. We're not going to get you fantasy points. Hey, Jamie.

Good morning. Good morning. Hey, Heath. I might get you some fantasy points. Oh, yeah? I don't buy it for one second. What position could Heath play and get us fantasy points at? A goalie.

Tight-in. Goalie is going to be, he's going to play high, soccer on ice. He's going to play gold. Soccer on ice. Yeah. Excited for the USA game tomorrow, Heath? That's going to be a 10 o'clock game, I believe. So I'm probably going to hear about that one in the morning.

It's a meaningless game. All right. I did have an email of the day about Christian McCaffrey from Jazz. We can do this quickly here. But Jazz just wants to point out that the last time McCaffrey had that injured season, two years ago, he was injured in the preseason. we knew he was hurt yeah

yeah wait he was injured in the preseason but didn't we think he was fine yeah he was practicing all the way up till week one and then in the lead up to week one was a regular season at week one game he would be fine

and then he didn't even play so yeah he was banged up I don't I remember him not being like full time in training camp I don't even he might have even gone like a week plus without even practicing But then he started to ramp up for the season. We felt pretty confident that he was going to play.

And then the week of week one, he got hurt in practice. Shanahan lied about it. And you guys remember the rest. It sucked. Okay. So it wasn't quite as simple as we knew he was super injured. It was, there was some, I don't know about this section. Yeah, okay, lying.

Yeah. And it was a bad situation. But also, don't forget about the two years earlier in his career where he missed almost the entire season. All right, Beyond the Box score has its own YouTube channel. You can just search for Beyond the Box Score on YouTube. You can listen to the audio fee, but I did want to promote the great work they're doing there. More, you know, longer episodes, yes, deep dives, but a lot of people really like that stuff,

and it's very helpful to get you ready for your drafts. News and notes. Kyle Pitts, three-year, $54 million extension with $36 million guaranteed. Jamie does that change the rankings for Kyle Pitts at all, this long-term commitment? No, but it's obviously encouraging that the Falcons, you know, are showing that they want him to be there. The addition of Kevin Stefanski, I think, should be great for Kyle Pitts. The lack of, you know, proven targets aside from Drake London, should be great for Kyle Pitts. So it's a very good situation, you know, understandably so that there's going to be fantasy managers concerned about can he produce at the level that we saw a

year again, can he do it with Greg London on the field? A lot of his great games came when London were out. But I'm hopeful. I think just the, really the addition of Stefanski should be huge for him. So I think Kyle Pitts will push to be a top five tight end. I would prefer to draft him closer to tight end seven or eight. But he has that upside, as we've seen before, in two of his season so far in the NFL.

He's been fifth in my projections or higher pretty much all offseason. And I think this just makes it easy. easier for me to trust that, that, the Stefansky history and the talent we believe Pitts has. The fact that Atlanta's committed to him in this significant way makes it easier for me to trust the projections. But, and Adam, you mentioned this, 12 games with Drake London last year. He averaged 9.6 ppr points per game. That's good for a tight end, I guess. We're looking for more than that.

Double digits on average would be good for a tight end. And anything north of like 11, 12 would be amazing. And so I want to settle for Kyle Pitts on draft day. I don't want to target him. I don't want to take him as one of the first five tight ends off the board. But I do see some appeal like the fellas talked about. Yeah, I'm not really a Pitts guy, but the appeal to me is that he's going 95th. and even if you're not a Pitts guy,

you know, that's, even if he averages nine points, he'd probably do a little bit better than that, but, you know, to justify 95th overall, if he gets you to 10 and a half points per game, it's really not that bad of a pick. Nope, not at all.

Okay, so there's not going to be a supplemental draft for Brendan Sorsby, although. Right call. Aw. Right call. Right call. I mean, boring call.

They've never had, I don't think they've done this to someone. Been like, sorry. We ever had a guy that placed 10,000 bets on college football while he was playing college football. I mean, Kishon Booty was arrested for gambling. And then he didn't have any repercussions. He had already been drafted into the NFL, correct? Mm-hmm.

Was he? He was through the regular track. But they didn't suspend him. Jameson Williams was suspended for gambling. He wasn't, okay, it wasn't spent for a full season. He gambled when he was in the NFL. Right. So Kisham Booty didn't.

To me, the equivalent would be like they suspended Kisham Booty for his rookie year after he was drafted. Kishan Booty bet while he was in the NFL? No. We bet when he was in college. Okay. Including, I believe, LSU games, I believe. I don't know. I don't really think it's the right call.

It's the boring call. We wanted to see this happen in the chaos that would unfold. He's just happy because he's off the hook for having his rookie draft. Oh, Dynasty. Dynasty commissioners who have already. had the rookie drafts are extremely this is the right call. But I just think the other thing is, like, it's, they, what they said makes perfect sense. They don't have enough time before the supplemental draft was happened to investigate,

like, what exactly he's done to get over this problem. Oh, come on. I don't, I don't know. And it doesn't sound like he's shown enough contrition to them. Okay. I just think that it seems like they're being a little selective with this criteria. Mike Floreo went through and said there's nothing in the CBA that talks about that kind of stuff. He's not represented by the union.

The CBA doesn't apply to him. But it does outline rules for the supplemental draft. They're going to. Which is at the NFL's discretion. They're going to, I think, probably sue and we'll see what happens. I would assume so after the last six months. Yeah, it's not like I have a ton of sympathy for him, but you know, you can't gamble on games, but, you know, he's not a criminal.

I think he should let him move on with his life. They will. He'll get drafted next year. He can go play football in Canada. This is a real big setback for his career. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Can I win my league now? It is.

Okay, fine. Nate Atkins of the Athletic, in case you're doing a rookie. draft now, which is silly. They said so far in Rams camp, neither Ty Simpson nor Stetson Bennett have stood out ahead of the other to be the backup to Matthew Stafford. And yesterday... When do you think it's not silly to do a rookie draft? December.

Because I... December. Yeah, as I said... Like I said, yes, you said, let's get the rookie draft going for Bakeburger. I said, it's not going to happen before December. I want to see these guys in action before we draft them. We should know. No.

I think, look, there are some wide receivers out there and maybe running backs, too. that our free agents, or in Brandon I.U.'s case, could be traded. That could certainly impact the way you feel about a rookie. I'll use the J.K. Dobbins example. I drafted R.J. Harvey, and then J.K. Dobbins got signed. And that, I wouldn't have drafted R.J. Harvey where I drafted him. It's a big deal. So if Stefan Diggs goes to a place that has a rookie wide receiver that you like,

I think you're probably going to knock him down a few spots. So I would say training camp. I don't know why you have to do it now. The season doesn't start until September. Why do we have to do a rookie draft now? Why? There's just no reason. It's just impatient.

I think the idea would be is to, first off, it's fun. That's the most important thing. Second of all, like, it encourages trades because then somebody may say, oh, Adam's pissed about RJ Harvey. Now that J.K. Dobbin is there. Maybe I'll offer him a second round pick for 2020. No, that doesn't encourage trades. No.

The J.K. Dobbins signing with the Broncos doesn't encourage trades. It just ruin someone or just hurt someone's value. Also, when we get to training camp, we're going to get to draft six times a week, every week for six weeks. I don't get, I'd like to do a draft right now. Yeah, but you're your fantasy analyst. Most people aren't doing that many drafts. I don't know one dynasty league that I'm in where people were like,

oh, man, we should really wait. This sucks, except yours. Yeah. I understand that you're itching to do a draft. Oh, yeah, you're itching to do a draft. I get that. But that's the only good reason for doing a draft right now. All right.

could he chime in on this one would it be bad if a dynasty league did a two round rookie draft or even a three round rookie draft now and then another draft in order when training camp starts for all the rookies that didn't make it and might be getting some buzz along with what other veterans are on the way for while i'm okay with whatever a commissioner wants to decide i just wish this commissioner would decide and give us a date for the draft Roughly late July. What's the big deal? Roughly late July. Okay. I'm going to be at Glacier National Park for a lot of late July, so I'd prefer it not. You'll be fine. It's an untimed draft.

You'll be fine. And Gino Smith yesterday said it seemed like the investigation, his assault, I guess, investigation was going to be wrapping up, but not the case. He is being investigated right now for assault. So another bad headline, but don't know what happened. That's Gino Smith. All right. We're going to take a break and come back and get into players 13 through 18 in our PPR consensus rankings.

Devon A-Chane, can you be on what we think is going to be a bad offense and not a high pass volume offense and have a great season? Well, you have to probably go back to 2025 Devon A-chan. We'll explain more after this on fantasy football today. The Dolphins were 25th in scoring last year, and they could be worse than that. There could be a big difference between 25th and 30th, for example. But they were 25th in scoring last year. You probably knew they were not good there. But did you know that they were 30th in pass attempts per game last season?

It threw 28.2 times per game. And Devon A. Chan had 67 catches. He had over 80 targets. And he was the number five running back in PPR. And that was with Tyree kill for three and a half games, but Jalen Waddle for much of the year. Anyway, 13th for A. Chan. Dave, what do you think?

I'm okay with it if you want to get a running back with PPR upside, but you cannot expect him to do what he did last year. I've talked a lot about 20% declines with running backs that have a lot of work. I think we're looking at a 20% decline for A-chan for a different reason. This is an offense that's similar as far as the playbook goes, but different in how it will operate, the track record of play caller Bobby Slowick, and quarterback Malik Willis suggest exactly that. And we saw it already last year.

You referenced this before the break. Devon A-Cham with Tua, 14 games last year, 20.8 PPR points per game. We love that. Two games without Tua, 16.1. And so if we take his average from last year, we deduct 20%, which I think is going to be fair. I think his targets are going to go down by 20%.

If not more, then we're talking about a running back that if things are okay, can still get you 16 ppr points. points per game. And that's right in that range of other receivers we talked about yesterday and we'll talk about today, end of round one, beginning of round two, much different story in non-PPR, although maybe not that much of a difference. I just don't think he'll score as much. The last point I'll make on A-chan, you mention it, 85 targets, 67 catches, almost 500 yards receiving four touchdowns. That was last year. It was 43% of his total PPR points coming through the air. And if, That drops because Willis doesn't check down, because the play caller doesn't call plays designed to Achan, because A. Chan maybe doesn't play as much.

Oh, boy, we could be looking at a disappointing year from him. You mentioned that he may not score that much. He didn't score that much last year. Scored 12 touchdowns, I believe, last year. That's a lot. I'm not sure he'll score that many of this year. It's the fewest of any running back who finished top five. In fact, in the last five seasons, since we've had a 17 game schedule, there have been nine running backs.

in the last five seasons, so almost two per year, who have finished top five in full PPR with 12 or fewer touchdowns, and Achan's done it twice. And by the way, Bejohn Robinson did it last year, and he was RB2. So I think all the things that you can say about Achan, he won't score that much,

they won't throw a lot, their offense will be bad. They all apply last year. I think we're worried that all three of those things are going to be even worse this year. Heath is 13th too high for A-chan? I think for me, and if I'd have been here, probably had said the same thing about McCaffrey earlier in the week,

but for me, A-chan is probably the scariest guy at the one-two turn, both because I think if you pass on him, you might be passing on a league winner, and I think if you draft him, you might be drafting a bust. I think the talent-wise, like, there's no doubt. I worry about Malik Willis' running back target rate, but the sample size is so minuscule that I don't want to take too much of from that,

especially when we're talking about a team that literally does not have a wide receiver that we're drafting in the top 150 picks. Right. So who are they going to throw to if they don't throw to Devon H.N.? Besides Greg Dulcich, because obviously we know he's going to be awesome. Let me give you the story on Willis and his target rate to running backs. Minuscule in the NFL, 13.1% target rate.

Heath, I assume you would agree that that's a low rate. rate? That's a low right. When I said minuscule, I meant the number of passes he's thrown. That's fair. No, I get it. Sure. So small sample because he hasn't been a starter, hasn't played that much in the NFL. But in the NFL, when he's played, it's 13.1%. He played a lot in college.

9.1% was his running back target rate in college. Who throws the running backs in college, though? They just don't really... Almost nobody. Yeah, they just don't really do that. But it's the past attempts for Willis. I mean, I don't think he's throw more than like 24 in a game or something like that. It's shockingly low.

Jamie, your thoughts on A-chan real quick. Not real quick. And then we'll get to our next guy. I mean, very similar to what the guys have said. The over-under for his touchdown, the player prop is five and a half from Vegas. So that tells you what his rushing touchdown total could be, which is not very good. Just by comparison, Brise Hall doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. That's the same number for him.

Same number for Ramandre Stevenson as well. So you're looking at low touchdown potential. That made me more very much. So I think really the reception's crater we're going to be in trouble. So if that's what goes away, crushing production will still be, I think, okay, because I do think this is going to be one of the more underrated offensive lines. I think they've done a good job in pulling this unit up,

and I think that will actually be a strength. But again, Willis is not going to do the same things that I don't know about Lowe does. It's funny, like if you look at the running backs just based on our consensus rankings, one above and one below, if he was Chase Brown on the Bengals, we would probably be talking about him as a top five overall pick. If he was a Marion Hampton with Mike McDaniel still on the Chargers, we'd probably be talking about him as a top five overall pick. So I think just looking at the team, it's really about the team,

and the context right now is just not great in where he's at. So there's some comments on the chat here about Ken Walker. Yeah, you can make an argument. Ken Walker's in a much better situation than Devon A. Chan, just a matter of who you can trust more at this point. So I think H.N belongs in round two. It's a matter of where you want to take him in round two. Like he said, you get to the one two turn.

Just to reference the draft that we recently did last week. Like I passed on that spot. I took James Cook and Justin Jefferson head of Devon H&, which is how I have a right. Okay. So, Brees Hall, I think, is a good name to mention because if you're looking for an inspiration, 23, Brees Hall. He was the number two running back in PPR, but number three, for six per game, number five per game and half PPR.

Not that good, though, in non-PPR, 11th per game. But in that year, he had 223 carries. He had 76 catches, average four and a half yards per carry. The Jets were 30th and points per game. They threw a lot, though. But they also had Garrett Wilson with 168 targets. So he's won inspiration for A. Chan, breeze hall in 2023.

Terrible offense, a ton of catches. The other guy, I think, would be Camara in 2024. The Saints actually weren't that bad when he was playing. They were 13th in points per game when he played, but they were 24th in points per game for the full season. But he's another guy. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry. H.N. should do better than that.

He had 68 catches. 228 carries, 68 catches. That was good enough to be a top six running back per game in half and full PPR. Okay. Next up is Justin Jefferson. Man, when I look at comments, Heath, about Jefferson, And I see, I see them just run the gamut of actually, I think I see them be like completely, there's nothing in the middle.

People were like, oh, you're crazy. Justin Jefferson 14th, you know, he's going to be so good. Or I'm not touching Justin Jefferson 14th. That's kind of the feel I'm getting right now. Heath, what do you think about Jefferson this year? I think I'm, if you're looking for somebody who's lukewarm on Justin Jefferson, it's probably me. Okay, found him. And it's not, my feelings on him aren't really.

that much different than H.N. Because I do think, again, at that one-two turn, he's a guy who could really make or break your season. And I think, like, I could see both possibilities. Kyler Murray either should be better than J.J. McCarthy or J.J. McCarthy should be better than he was last year. I don't really have any reason to doubt that Justin Jefferson lost a step or anything. I'm not so sure it's going to be a high-volume pass offense.

and Jordan Addison definitely matters in this offense. So I'm not sure we get 10 targets per game from Justin Jefferson. I'm not sure he has the top three to five wide receiver upside this year. But I do think it's a big bounce back season for him. It's just he could have a bounce back season and still be a bust at the one-two turn. What would that look like? Well, I've got him at 16th overall. So I guess I'm a little bit lower.

and I've got him projected for 99 catches, 1,300 yards, and six touchdowns. Yeah. So you guys, let's compare him to, let's say, Nico Collins, George Pickens, and A.J. Brown. Does Justin Jefferson have more upside than all three of those guys? A.J. Brown, George Pickens, Nico Collins. I would say similar. Yeah, very similar. I mean, again, like if you're talking talent, he obviously has more upside.

If you're talking situation, circumstance, all the things that go into play with his quarterback and the talent around him, then I think it's, you know, certainly arguable. So, look, you know, we're hoping Kyler Murray is the answer. And it's, I think, easy to make an argument on both sides of it because we've seen the pros and cons of what Kyler Murray has done. You know, he has one season with the receiver of this caliber, and it was the first season he was paired with the Andre Hopkins, who was a very similar age to what Jefferson is now, and Hopkins was a superstar that year. And so Jefferson can certainly do that.

You look at the games Jefferson played last year with Carson Wentz. It was 16.6 p.pr.R points per game in five games. Carson Wentz played a game and a half of that with, you know, a bad left shoulder in one of the games he could barely lift his arm. You know, so is Jefferson capable of doing that? I think if that's the number you're looking at, then this is the range that you're drafting him in, which is very similar to the numbers we talked about with Drake London yesterday,

who was a 16.8 point per game guy. So, you know, the hope would be is that Jefferson's talent, Kyler Murray's talent, Kevin O'Connell's offense, all those things come into play and we get the type of player that Jefferson's capable of. Now, I think the question is, is he a bust or does he, you know, live up to the expectations of the people that are pro JJ?

You know, like, you know, again, I like to see the comments in the chat. So Kevin Bowers says, I have the 13th pick. I'd love for JJ to fall. I think a lot of people that are pro Justin Jefferson are hoping that we're getting. getting peak Justin Jefferson and top three caliber player, let alone wide receiver. So that to me is not realistic in the current framework of where he's playing right now

because I don't think Kyler Murray, even in Kevin O'Connell's offense, is capable of helping Justin Jefferson get back to that level of production because, as he said, Jordan Addison, the addition of Joanne Jennings, T.J. Hawkinson is still there. And this is still a team that wants to be balanced and run the ball. So I think Jefferson is in the next tier of wide receivers, you know, after you get past really the top four. I think you can make an argument certainly with him versus Drake London. But once you get past the top four, it's Jefferson, London, Lamb, those type of players. Do you want to throw Nico Collins, AJ Brown, George Pickens?

It's definitely worth debating all those guys. And maybe if Malik neighbors and Rashi Rice had no health or issues, they would be in the conversation too. So I think Jefferson, late round one, early round two, that's the perfect spot for him. Like he said, you're hoping that he doesn't take that or play at the same level that we saw, produced at the same level, because I think he still played fine, but produced at the same level. Hopefully it's just Kyler Murray being, you know, able to bounce back and motivated in all the things that we see from him. Can he help, you know, get that type of production out of Jefferson or at least the Carson Wentz type of production under Jefferson, which I do think is realistic. Well, here's my question.

If Jefferson has similar upside to A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, and George Pickens, does he, does he, does he, does he, he have more downside than all of those guys. And if he has similar upside and more downside, then why would I rank him ahead of those three players? I would argue he's got a little more upside than those three players. And that's why we've seen him before last year, 2024, 2023, well north of 18 PPR points per game each of those two years. I don't know if we've had, I don't know if we've ever had a Nico year that good.

I know we've had an AJ Brown year that good. and I don't think we've had a pick and cheer that could. So there's a little bit more to Justin Jefferson's ceiling, but everything has to go right. And that includes Kyler Murray playing at a level better than where he was at in his last few years in Arizona. And I've watched a lot of Arizona film lately because I'm trying to get a beat on their offense with Michael LeFloor.

And Kyler was way more bad than good last year, just not on the same page with his receivers. A lot of off-target throws. His deep throws were ugly especially. And that does make me nervous about Jefferson hitting that upside. But I also think he's going to get 10 targets per game because he's always gotten around 10 targets per game. Even last year when he absolutely sucked, he was getting around 10 targets per game, maybe a little bit lower than that. Not really, though. Because the last two years.

He was, especially with Wince he was. I think the one big, like I'm not saying Carson Wins is a better passer than Kyler, I don't think that's true at this stage of their careers. but then those games, five games that Wins started, they averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game. I don't think Kyler's ever averaged 34, and he's been lower than that most years. So I think, like Dave was talking about,

a 20% reduction for Devon H. And I think it's probably, if you're talking about Kyler versus those Wins games, it's probably at least a 10% reduction in the number of pass attempts that they're going to have. And that could mean a 10% reduction in targets, now we're talking about maybe the low eights per game. Because you're right, Adam.

It's not like he's a lock for 10 targets per game. Even in 2024, I was wrong. 9.1 targets per game last year. He was around eight targets per game. But I still think he's going to command the most targets easily in Minnesota. That's not saying anything. Sure. But it's also, you know, again, looking at Kyler's history,

he's never had, including Hopkins, a receiver of this caliber. He's never had a play caller of this caliber. And so will that allow him to be a little bit more open and free? And obviously, what trust level will Kevin O'Connell have in him? It's an unknown. We just don't know how this is all going to play out in terms of how this team is going to look. We're also asking, you know, he said they're going to lean on the run or run the ball. I don't know how he phrases, but, you know, team that wants to run the ball, which makes sense.

But we're asking that from a 32-year-old lead running back and a guy in Jordan Mason who's been a career backup. So is that where the focus of the offense is when they go out and they add a third wide? receiver like Jennings, which they didn't need, and certainly as a luxury. And now you have Jefferson Addis and Jennings, like, this is a passing attack that if there was a strong quarterback here, we would be saying Cowboys, Bengals, that type of situation. There's that much upside. Well, but they have a great defense. They have a great defense, though.

That's the difference. They do have a great defense, but I think the defense takes a little bit of step back. They lost a lot of key personnel this off. He did. So, you know, I think just in the case of Kyler, again, this is where the unknown is. So, you know, to compare him to Nico, who. who has a very inconsistent DJ Stroud and maybe some more competition for targets that were,

you know, a little different for Nico Collins this year with Tankdale Back and a better Dayton Higgins. You know, AJ Brown's obviously a wild card because he could be amazing with Drake May or he could just be the same type of player we saw last year, which, you know, I think I would argue Justin Jefferson's upside more.

George Pickens is clearly second on the team in terms of where his targets will be. So if you're looking at that, you know, comparison. I just think in the case of Jefferson, there is a lot of hope. And you're banking on. on his skill level, his talent level, his history of production.

And again, if you're nitpicking and you're saying, okay, this was all J.J. McCarthy, which I don't think is necessarily fully fair, but obviously it's the main reason why he struggled. I go back to, again, to the Carson Wend's games and is just that from a production standpoint. Forget about, like he said, we're not talking about Kyler versus Carson.

It's not really about that. It's just a production standpoint of what Jefferson still was able to do with a more competent quarterback. And if Kyler Murray, I think, is competent in this offense, we saw it with Nick Mullins, we saw it with Josh Dobbs, we saw it with other quarterbacks in Kevin O'Connell's system, when Kirk Cousins blew out his Achilles, there's a track record here of just Jefferson still producing with almost anybody who's throwing the ball except J.J. McCarthy. So the hope would be is that Kyler Murray gets him back to that level of production.

Again, the Wendt's level of production. Anything above that, you're talking about a superstar. So I'm hoping for 16 to 17 p.p.R. points per game. and I think Jefferson can deliver that in that 10 to 15 range in your drafts. I just looked. It was 16.3 points per game in the games with Carson Wins. So I think I've got him projected for just a little bit less than that, but very, very close.

But 15 and a half sounds great. But didn't he not score a touchdown? He didn't have a single touchdown in those games, and he still averaged 16 points? That's insane. Yeah. The Vegas line for him. He's a very good receiver.

The Vegas line for him is 1,200 receiving yards in 7 and a half touchdowns. Yikes. Well, Vegas lines, you know, look, they can't project 17 games for everyone or, you know, everyone would take the under on every player. Right. So you have to, they're going to be a little lower because 1,200 yards sounds pretty low. I'd go over on the yards and under on the touchdowns probably. Last year was only 1,048 yards in 17 games with bad quarterback play.

Okay. Let's get to our next. guys, let's lump them together. Omari and Hampton and Ashton Genty, a couple second year running backs who finished pretty similar in points per game. They were both 16th or 17th per game in non and half PPR. Hampton was 13th per game and full PPR. Genti was 15th per game. Hampton had 32 catches in nine games, Genti, 55 catches and 17 games. You've got new offensive minds for both players. You've got better offensive lines for both players, better offensive times for both play.

I'm going to keep the rhyme going there. So who do you like better, Heath? Hampton or Gentie? I currently have Omari and Hampton just a touch higher than Ashton Genty, but I think I've changed that three times this off season already. I've got them both right around 15 fantasy points per game.

I think if I would say that I think the upsides maybe just a little bit higher for Genty if everything goes right. But Mike McDaniel in Los Angeles and the general state of the Chargers offensive line quarterback, everything else, makes it more likely that things go right for Amari and Hampton. Dave, who do you like better? Hampton or Gentie? I'm glad I'm not the only one that's gone back and forth between these two.

And I would imagine that this is a decision that a lot of fantasy managers are going to have to make. I agree with Heath, Hampton over Genty. but it's close. Jamie? Hampton or Gentie. Is it close? Of course.

Have you flip-flopped? I have not. All right. So at least one of us hasn't flip-flop that much. I've got my reasons too, but it's just it's damn close. They're both really good. There's just so much potential for both. I am more worried about Hampton losing touches to someone else than I am Genty,

but I'm also more worried about the rate. is having like six rushing touchdowns as a team than I am Hampton. It's funny you say that because that's really my concern for Genti is that you have Clint Kubiak coming from Seattle where he loved to use two running backs. And they drafted a guy that I think a lot of us were hoping to see end up someplace else in Mike Washington. And so I know Kubiak has said you don't take a player like Gentile out of the field as compared to Christian McCaffrey.

I get all that. But I just wonder if his history and the player that's knocking on the door behind him, which shouldn't take Gentile off the field for significant stretches, but maybe for some key opportunities, mostly at the goal line, given Mike Washington's potential. I just wonder, like, Hampton could lose reception totals to, my guess would be Keaton Mitchell more so than Kamani Vidal. But I do think that we could see both guys coming off the field.

I just look at Kubiak's history, and it suggests, like, okay, we may have a problem here if Mike Washington is actually good. Washington is 6-1-223 pounds. So that's a profile for a short yardage back, I'd say. But Gentie is also, you know, big and can handle that. Washington is kind of like a Ken Walker back in that he, his profile anyway, is a home run hitter, a lot of like zero and negative yard runs, a lot of home runs. But, look, I don't think we're too, right, as you said,

I don't they were too concerned about him taking away major opportunities for Genti. For Hampton, I want to point out with the cash. that, you know, Hampton was on pace for 60 catches. But if you look at it, it was the only time he got a lot of targets was when either Najee Harris was out or Kamani Vidal was out, basically. Other than that, he would get two targets, basically. It's kind of weird, though, because it's not like Najee or Vidal were actually getting a lot of targets.

So I don't know what to make of it, but he would have these. They trusted those guys more in past protection, right? Yeah. It could be that. I also wonder if it had to do with the offensive line. What was the offensive line like in the games where Hampton had a lot of targets and catches? Because if it was Swiss cheese, Herbert was probably checking down a lot more often. I mean, maybe.

I'm going to just go ahead and say, I don't think he comes close to 60 catches. But, you know, you do have Mike McDaniel with that history. I think that, you know, the thing with McDaniel is he got two very different seasons. out of his running backs. He had a season with Rahim Moster where he led the league in rushing touchdowns. He had a season with Devon H.N., which he was one of the most prolific pass-catching running backs in the league.

And so here you have Hampton, who showed a lot of great things last year, pre-ancle injury, post-ankel injury, when, to Dave's point, the offensive line with Swiss cheese. I mean, I just love the idea of Mike McDaniel having this type of player at his disposal and this offense at his disposal. And so hopefully you get a healthy Joe All

and a healthy Roshan Slater. And now you have what could be one of the best offensive lines in the league with one of the most creative play callers in the league with a first round talent at running back. So it's obvious that these two guys should be drafted very close to each other. I certainly understand if somebody wants to take Gentie ahead of Hampton, Genti got a significant offensive line upgrade with Linder Mom and Kubiak should be much better.

And the passing game should be much better with the addition of both quarterbacks that they got, whether it's Mendoza or cousins, whoever's going to start the majority of the games. Hopefully it's Mendoza and he looks like the player we saw at Indiana. So there's just a lot to love about both these guys. And when you start to compare them to the running backs ahead of them,

McCaffrey and his questions, H.N. in his questions, Chase Brown and his up and down performance last year with or without Somaget P. Ryan, like, there's going to be a lot of people that are going to say, why is Genty not ahead of those guys? And ADP, I think, suggests it with Chase Brown for sure. And the same thing with Hampton. Like, you know, there's just so much to love about both these guys.

Could we be wrong? Could Keaton Mitchell be the past catching back there? And then, you know, we're looking at a, you know, sub 30 catch season for Hampton, sure. Could Genti still be good but not great? And continue to get all this work on an offense that is led by and aging and failing Kirk Cousins at this point or just not ready yet Fernando Mendoza.

Like there's a lot of things that can go wrong. But the upside to me is worth it. So I love these guys in early round too. Okay, I've got to take a break. Sorry, I'll get to you and just let's take a break. Heath, you can hop in as soon as we're back to talk about Hampton and Gentie. We'll be right back. we're back hampton versus gentie heath you were saying well this isn't really a hampton versus

gentie comment as much as it is maybe a transition into the next guy we're going to talk about but the three guys who are directly ahead of these rookies in my projections are three guys that i have a hard time with in the rankings versus them it's derrick henry obvious reasons not just the age but losing the center that gentie just gained losing the fullback new offensive coordinator. It's Sequin Barkley, who may have more upside, but didn't look near as good last year. And then it's Josh Jacobs, who could have more volume and could be on a better offense than Gentie, but also has the legal problems. And so I think comparing these young guys to those old vets is what I struggle with, as much as I struggle with comparing Gentie to Hampton.

I'm so worried. Yeah, I was about, I'm so annoyed that you said this, because I was about to say the same thing. It's the hardest part I have here is like, it's not Gentie versus Hampton. It's what about Henry and Barclay? And yes, Kenneth Walker and not Jeremiah love for me, but maybe for some people. And Josh Jacobs, who was arrested and then released

on domestic violence charges, but I think they haven't charged him yet, as I recall. Yeah, like it's a big tier of running back, right? Isn't it? I mean, the fact that the two young guys are at the top, excluding love, I feel like the only reason they're at the top is because they're young. I don't know.

Not just because they're young, but because those older guys all have concerns. So, well, do you think they'd be ahead of Jacobs if Jacobs didn't have any off-field issues? I'd rather have the two young running backs. It would be close for me. I just don't know even what the justification is. Genti had a really bad year last year. Hampton had one good game. It was against the worst run defense in football.

And then he was good, like, when Vidal. all got hurt against the Cowboys. Those guys, they didn't, I think we all think they're better than what they showed, but they didn't really show that much last year, even, you know, given their pedigree, especially. Right. But last year, both of them had to deal with offensive line injuries. Both of them had play callers that were suspect, and I'm being nice with that term.

And they were rookies. It was their first time in the league. Hampton especially had to deal with an injury. I'm not saying we have to give them a clean. slate, but we're trying to look forward here. And both of their situations have gotten better. Both of them have a year's worth of experience under their belt. And so I don't know if it's disqualifying for one or both of them that they had a bad year as a rookie.

No, it's certainly not disqualifying. But I don't think they've proven anything that would put them ahead. You're speculating. Bejohn didn't have the best rookie year. And we still chased after him pretty hard in his second year. And were we justified in that? I would say so. He went from 14.5 p.pr points to 20.1.

As a second year guy? All right. So then we can go to Derek Henry here. Yeah, he's 46 years old. And still finishes at top. Sorry, I'm... It would surprise me at this point. Yeah, I'm just projecting our show in 2040.

We're going to be talking about Derek Henry in the second round. He's 32 years old. It was number seven running back last year. Heath, what you say? I said that was really good quick math. I hope I got it right. Jamie, what do you think about Henry compared to the two young dudes? I mean, look, obviously the safety factor is there for Derek Henry.

If you just want to believe in his track record, it's tried and true, you know, from Tennessee to Baltimore. It's just been very productive. As I said yesterday, like you could clearly see the path to him leading the league in rushing yards to leading the league in rushing touchdowns. He's not going to be heavily involved in the passing game. He's brought up two very big concerns. You know, losing Linderbom and losing Ricard are potentially two things that he has to overcome and may struggle with because obviously the offensive line is not as good right now.

They're still trying to figure out who their center is going to be. And losing Ricard may be something that's a problem for him. That being said, he's been very successful with Lamar Jackson. He's been very successful in this environment. And it was kind of the, you know, I always go back. to the argument we made when he left Tennessee and came to Baltimore. What he's shown, which makes a ton of sense given his profile, is when he's on a winning team, he is extremely successful.

When they're playing from behind, he's not on the field. He doesn't have the chance to do what he's capable of to the same extent. And so I think if you still believe in Baltimore, which is hard not to, you know, given, even with the coaching change, you know, losing Harbaugh is going to be something that may be problematic. But still, you're looking at a roster that's still very good, at a team that I think is still meant to compete. And as long as Lamar Jackson healthy,

they will be the intention to win the division and potentially make a Super Bowl up. So I think Derek Henry, you have to get over the age concerns. Can he continue to defy father time? You just know what you get. You know, and I think mid-round two is a perfect spot for him. If you want to put him ahead of

probably four or five of the run backs that we talked about, you know, as I said yesterday, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, Derek Henry, their profiles, I think are, very, very set in stone. Nothing's really going to change. The Campton could be all over the place. Jente could be all over the place. Chase Brown with

without some Ajap, Ryan, very different numbers for what he gave you last year, A-10, in his situation. You know, just looking at a lot of different things here. I think just Derek Henry, you know, is kind of one of the safer picks for us. So, you know, sorry, you got distracted.

Let's say you're up in the, you know, 14, 15, 16 range in your draft. And these running backs are all on the board. Hampton, Gentie, Henry, do you find yourself taking them? Do you find yourself taking a different position? I think that, you know, there's a chance, especially if you get to the middle of round two, right? You get to 18. You know, you could pass maybe on these guys and hopefully get Walker or love in the third round.

Kyran. Yeah, if you're like, so I'm just wondering. Jacob's for sure in round three now. Yeah, right. What are your tendencies, though, when you're on the clock in this range, and you're looking at Gentie and Hampton and Henry specifically? What are you doing in round one? You took a wide receiver. So you took, let's say, St. Brown, and then you're looking at the group of most likely Pickens, A.J. Brown, Niko, Rashi Rice, those type of players.

Yeah. And the tight ends. And the tight ends. and then you're hoping for I would probably lean running back here just to get the player that I want. Well, who's the player you want? Who's your, you know, you like these guys?

For me, it would be Walker. If Walker's there, I would take Walkerhead of the two second year running backs and Henry. My five players in the rankings from 15 to 19 are Rice, Jefferson, Hampton, Gentie, Henry. So that's kind of where I'd be. Yeah, I think Rice makes a lot of sense. He'll move up the rankings, you know.

He will. Yeah, if there's no suspension coming and his knee's okay, participating in camp. I haven't really made my decisions yet about this group. It's a tricky group. I don't draft Justin Jefferson. I'm nervous about Jefferson. I don't draft Ashton Genti much.

I'm nervous about him. I think when it comes down to it, and I have to make these decisions, I want to tie myself to the better offenses here, which isn't always the easiest thing to predict, but I definitely think the Chargers are going to have a better offense than the Raiders, and that's why I'm going.

But you did that with your AJ Brown selection. Yeah, I do. I think AJ Brown's another guy. Like, let's say his ADP, his ADP, I think, is actually higher than, like, where you guys have him ranked. But he's 21st right now on Fantasy Pros. But I really could see that going up to the, you know,

1617 range. I think that's what I have. Okay, because I thought he was like in CBS ADP. He's 22 for me. Okay. where is he in the consensus rankings? He's 20, well, Heath has him pretty low. Who?

AJ Brown. He's 28th in the consensus rank. Right. So, um... Let me move him up a little, so he goes up. That's all right. I just don't think he's going to be a third round pick in most leagues. But yeah, I think he belongs in this discussion.

But I guess I'm just saying, like, it's really tough to make these calls. There are going to be factors that are completely out of your control. I'm going to try to, if it's close, I'm going to go with the better offenses or which teams, I think, will have the better offenses. So for me, it's Hampton over Gentie. But how do you have Hampton and Henry? I'm going to go, yeah, I mean, I hate, I can't stand it anymore with Derek Henry. I'm wrong every year.

I actually think Sequin Barclay is, I think I'd take Barclay over Henry. I would two. I would three. I have Barclay one spot behind Henry. Yeah. Yeah, it's similar profile, but I think more catch, definitely more catches, potentially a lot more catches this year. Potentially.

But, I mean, he needs six more catches for every one more touchdown that Henry scores than him. That's true, but you also get the receiving yards, you know, with the, look, it's tough. It's really tough. I just, I think for me, and I don't want people to just do what I'm doing or anything, but I think Jefferson and Gentie are two guys that I'm not drafting because I'm worried that their offenses are going to hold them back compared to the other guys in this range. So you feel saying about A-chan, nice. No.

No, because A-chan might wipe both of those guys off the board. That's interesting, though, because you're, I think from a talent standpoint, you could clearly make a very easy comparison. Jefferson's talent in his position, A-chan's talent in his position. They're two of the best that we've seen in the last five years. Yeah. I think the more different, like the thing that I struggle with, and we talked about with A-chan already, but like A-chan might just be their entire offense.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing? It's a good thing until it's not. I think with A-chan, you know, he's arguably been the best running back in the NFL since he's come in the league. You know, assuming he leads in yards per carry in the last three years, he averts like seven. 5.6 for his career.

It's insane. Right. Yeah, I mean, I don't think he's the best running back, but he's up there. Just makes me like Omar and Hampton more because I don't know how much of that is A-chan versus how much of that is how he was scheme by McDaniel. Gosh, Jamie, remember that fourth down play where Tua threw to him,

fourth and goal he threw to him at like the 10-yard line, like an idiot. And A-chan made everyone miss and scored. He's amazing. That's A-chan. That's not McDaniel. I mean, listen, it's the same thing about McCaffrey. Like, if he does do what he just said,

and he's their entire offense, and he just dominates touches and stays healthy, and is still involved into passing him, because I think that's big. you know, so... It's huge. Can he score? Like, you say 12 touchdowns isn't a lot.

I think that's a pretty good number for what this offense is going to probably produce. It's going to have to be at least four receiving touchdowns, I think. I think it's going to have to be just north of 10 touchdowns to some degree, you know, 10 or more, you know, for him to justify being taken in the first 12 overall picks, if not just the first 15 overall picks. But he's going to have to be north of 50 catches. He's probably going to have to be 1,500 plus total yards. Like, it could certainly happen.

I mean, he's that good of a player. And so I think the one thing about the dolphins is like, if you remove, which is hard to do, if you remove the quarterback in the receiving core, the roster is not that terrible. I mean, I'm discouraged about all the bad reports about Malik Willis because I think he played very well. You know, I'll go back to what I said. I think it was last week, like when you're going to read stuff about training camp and minicamp stuff. Like, he's not going to look pretty. There's going to be things that he does that just are not going to be aesthetically right.

in terms of what you're judging quarterback play on. He's a playmaker. Like, that's what is going to be the thing that defines him and defines this team and this offense. Like, you saw it in Green Bay last year. You know, when he had to start those two and a half games, whatever was playing those two and a half games, like he's going to make some incredible throws.

He's going to make some incredible plays. And I think just given the fact that the lack of talent around him, he's going to look bad at times. Like, you know, I think it was the Miami Herald report saying that Quinn yours looked better than him. Well, I'm sure Quinn Ewers, when they're asking him to throw a simple outrout or something like that, he's going to probably do it with a little bit more, it's going to be boring in doing and get the job done. Yeah.

Like, Malik Willis is going to make a 50-yard throw that Quinn Ewers can't make or, you know, a play or extend a play or do things that, you know, a borderline superstar quarterback can do. He just doesn't do it consistently enough. So there's just a lot of flaws with the dolphins and a lot of flaws with this team, and that's the concern I have with H. Let's take a look at George Pickens here, our last player in players 13th through 18. Pickens is 18th in our consensus PPR rankings. And, you know, I want to show our producer today, Sam, made a couple of graphics here. I want to show you guys this just for some context of big ADP risers from 2024 to 2025 and how they do, because Pickens is obviously a really big riser.

So, Trey McBride, unfortunately a lot of these players got hurt. But Trey McBride went up 18 spots. That was a great pick. Malik Neighbors went up 40 spots. He got hurt. George Kittle, 19 spots. So this is, again, this is from 2024 to 2025, the biggest ADP risers that I found. Kittle was a good pick.

Burrow and Higgins, they were up about 30 spots each because they were coming off bad 2023 seasons, then good 2024 seasons. I mean, it's kind of hard to evaluate them. McLaurin, though, he was a bad pick. He went up 32 spots. Pollard was a bad pick. He was a 17 spot riser. Xavier Worthy was a terrible pick, but he got hurt.

McClorin got hurt. So many of these guys got hurt. Romo Dunesay was a good pick. He went up 17 spots. Jackson Smith and Jigba went up 45 spots from 2024 to 2025. And now he's going up another 20-something. He was a great pick. Take a look at the next page, though.

Now, all these guys here were picked about, pick 100 or later in 2023. Some of them way behind that. Like Tai J. Tai J. Spears went up 84 spots. Brock Bowers went up 81 spots. He got hurt. Jaden Daniels, 72 spots. He got hurt.

McConkey, Chase Brown, Cortland Sutton, Brian Thomas, Jr. James and William, T.J. Hawkinson. Here's my point. You have a lot of guys every year that are going to rise in ADP because they had their first good year. And Pickens is that guy.

He's one of those guys this year. A lot of the players on this list were busts last year. So I, you know, I do have that thought with George Pickens. I understand the situations were very, very different compared to his first three seasons,

but it's a big jump to be taking him 18th overall. Dave, do you have any concerns about him being able to repeat a terrific season where he finished as wide receiver six per game? I have concerns about him hitting the ceiling. We can split up

his year any way you want to figure out what his true average per game is. But overall on the year, He was at 17.2 PPR points per game. And that's right around where he was in six games with Lamb and Quinn and Williams late in the year for Dallas. It's a small sample size. Here's my problem. I recognize that he can be good.

I don't know if I love the idea of taking a number two wide receiver or maybe a co-number-one, wide receiver on his own team within the first two rounds of the fantasy draft. I don't know if we've done that very often. And so now here's this player who had a great year. A lot of his best numbers came when C.D. Lamb was hurt. And we're expecting Dallas to have a better defense this year. Maybe they don't throw quite as much as they did last year. This isn't a question about talent. And he should still get plenty of opportunities.

But, man, I have had a hard time clicking his name at 20th overall, 21st overall. when there's some damn good tight ends that could be differentiators from my fantasy team, running backs that can be good starters from my fantasy team, and knowing that there's going to be receivers that maybe don't have the same upside

as George Pickens, but can still be reliable starters waiting for me in rounds three, four, five, and even six. I mean, certainly you had Chase and Higgins, with Higgins going kind of early round three, maybe close to the two, three turn.

He went in round two sometimes. Yeah. If Pickens really does go 18, I'm not quite sure he will. I feel like this would be the earliest we've ever had two wide receivers from the same team go off the board, at least that I can think of. Yeah. I think Moss and Edelman, or Welker rather, one of those guys in New England maybe, way back in the day. Heath, what are we going to say? I think, like, the sample that, and I'm sure you've got an azure stat that's a little better than this one, but week seven through 17 after Lamb came back. not counting week 18. It was 16.8 fantasy points per game for Pickens, 16.1 for Lamb. They both scored three touchdowns in 10 games. I think certainly for Pickens, we'd expect for him to score at a higher rate than that. I've got him right in this range.

I actually have him one spot ahead of Jefferson, but I think both of those guys could have monster seasons, could step back a little bit, at least, well, Jefferson's going to be better than he was last year, but could not be quite that good. But I'm pretty comfortable with pickings in round two. I just think you're going to see Dallas probably throw the ball a lot, and you're going to see a high percentage of the targets go to those top two wide receivers.

Another example of teammate wide receivers being drafted in the first 24 picks. Not 18. I don't know that I can find that, but Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Hill had a year like that. Did we never have a cut Pook a year where they were that high? I don't think so. Probably Pooka second year. It would have had to have been.

But even then, I'm not sure we were crazy about Cooper Cup and going into 2024. I'd have to go back and look. No, he was 35th. Yeah. So that's a no. But look, it worked out, I think, with Higgins. But, you know, he's been kind of like a wide receiver 15 per game kind of guy. Not six or seven.

And not a second round pick. He was kind of around the two-three turn last year, was he not? He's been in that. No, no. Let's see. I think it's 2022, or 2023, rather. He was. He was 29th.

So this is very early. This is very early. The better question is probably not have we done this before, but have wide receivers on the same team justified this before? I can probably tell you. I mean, we had, I'm looking at it, we had a year where Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen both scored 16.8 and 16.9 fantasy points per game in 2020. Yeah. I mean, I have it some of, well, while I have a whole list of like teammate-wide receivers who finish top 15, see what the best ones were. But Jamie, what do you think of George Pickens in the middle of round two? It's a little early for me, but I mean, obviously I get the appeal.

You know, if we're hoping that we're going to get the same level of production from both receivers, I think we get a little bit better lamb this season and a little bit worse pickings this season, just because I, I think what we saw from Pickens last year may be the peak, and that's not bad, obviously, but I just think we get a little bit regression from him in the wrong direction. I also think, you know, Dave's brought this up quite a bit, that the Dallas defense is going to improve significantly, and so we may not see as many pass attempts from the Cowboys offense. Now, this other part is a little hard to buy, but, you know, again, reports are reports, that they really like what they've seen from Ryan Flannoy,

and what he's going to potentially be able to do, Jake Ferguson's still going to be in the mix, and we'll see how this run game, you know, sort of, continues to build off what they did last year with Giovante Williams. So I think George Pickens is a very good number to receiver. I actually prefer him toward the back end of round two. I would rather have A.J. Brown. I would rather have Nico Collins.

I know that's probably not the way that's going to get drafted, clearly based on what our consensus rankings are and probably how ADP goes, especially in the case of AJ Brown. But I would also take a handful of running backs over him. And I think, as we've kind of alluded to, Rashi Rice, for me right now is ahead of Pickens and probably will end up being that way as well once we get to, you know, August and average app position sort of, you know, looks like it's going to look.

So I just think Pickens is in a great spot. I love the fact that he's showing up despite not getting his contract extension. I hope that's going to be the case. And we don't get a hold in. And he's not practicing in camp because you know how that'll go for me, at least. But in what it seems to be trending toward that he's playing for a big deal. I hope he's, you know, a good soldier and goes out and has another monster season. And this is where he should start to come off the board.

So again, if you took a running back in round one, so you went McCaffrey or, I'm trying to think anybody else in this range, McCaffrey, Taylor, you know, those guys of ACHAN's in this mix. James Cook, you know, and you want to go receiver in round two, and you like Pickens better than, again, the guys that we have from a consensus standpoint. If you like him better than Rice, better than in Heath's case, Jefferson, but, you know, just looking at the consensus rankings, better than Nico, better than A.J. Brown.

I certainly can't fault you for what Pickens did last year, and hopefully we'll once again do this season. Okay, here are some wide receivers. Let's put this criteria. over the last 10 seasons. Team 8 wide receivers that both finished, what do you, top 12, top 10? What do you want to do?

Top 12. Both finished top 12. One of them finished, let's say, at least wide receiver, six. Does that work? Or seven? I'd be okay if they're both top 12, even if they were 11 and 12.

Okay, okay. There's a decent amount. Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams, Michael Thomas and Brandon Cooks. They had Aaron Rogers and Drew Brees throwing in them. them. Well, are you going to tell us what happened the year after? No. This is just examples of it happened. Oh, sure. Once upon a time, Marvin Jones and Golden Tate were to wide receivers 11 and 12.

Antonio Brown and Juju. Adam Thielen and Diggs. Let's see. Metcalf and Lockett. Jefferson in Thielen. Tyree Kill and Jalen Wattle. A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. and last year we had, oh, yeah, last year we had Puka and Adams. I don't know if we had anyone else last year. I will say that it happens almost every year. The problem with that is that that's overall, not per game.

I probably will lose some of them on a per game basis. But it also gained some. I think we had a Jamar Chase T. Higgins season where Higgins didn't on a, well, didn't we last year have Lamb and Pickens? Yeah, my issue would have a hook a cup here too in there too. A lot of times with that situation

is you have guys go off when the other guy is out and then they both look better on a per game base. Devante Smith is a perfect example of that because the AJ Brown Devante Smith won like we know Devante Smith is nowhere near that good

when Dallas Goddard and AJ Brown are healthy. When one of those guys is out, he's sensational. But yeah, but either way. I mean, look, there are plenty of examples and you usually have good quarterbacks by the way. So,

um, that, it's a, it's a good thing for DAC. Uh, all right. No Cooper and Crabtree in there? Or too far back?

I don't, I don't, Cooper and Crabtree. Let's see. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Um,

Crabtree and Cooper were 12th and 16th. They were not quite, not quite make the list. Oh yeah. Per game, we had two and 24. We had Chase Higgins and we had Godwin Evans. 2024.

Okay. Um, or 2025. Yeah, 2024. We had a Keenan Allen, Mike Williams. You play three games? Mike Williams? Yeah.

He did. We also, technically that year, had Garrett Wilson and Devante Adams. I did not count that one because Wilson was wide receiver 22 after the Adams trade, but they both did finish top 12 overall. But Wilson wasn't anywhere near that per game. So I like per game better, but it's not a perfect exercise one way or the other. All right. Well, that's 13 through 18.

A. Chan, Jefferson, Hampton, Gentie, Henry, and George Pickens. We still have some phenomenal players to talk about. We haven't gotten to the tight ends yet. So tomorrow 19 through 24, Sequin, Nico, Rishi Rice, Kenneth Walker, Bowers, and McBride. That's what it is right now. It's possible that'll change. Someone updates their rankings today, but I don't think it will. And I think what's so interesting is, like, look at that six, right?

you got Barclay Collins, Rice, Walker, Bowers, McBride. After that, I mean, you do have A.J. Brown after that. But you have Higgins, Olave, Kairn, A. A.J. Brown. Not that many guys that I, well, Jacobs is there, too. Not that many guys that can sneak into that top 24, I think. All right. We'll talk to you tomorrow, folks. Have a great day.

It's for Dave, Jamie, and Heath. I'm Adam. This has been Fantasy Football today. See ya. Podcasts. of SkyMed. I need fluids and an ambulance standing by.

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