Fantasy Football Today - 2026 QB Rankings, Tiers & Strategy! The Ultimate Draft Prep Guide! (07/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 29, 2026

Help us raise money for St. Jude Children's Hospital here: https://tinyurl.com/FFTDonate2026Get ready for your fantasy football draft with the FFT Crew's complete quarterback preview, as they break down their draft strategy and debate whether to wait on the deep position or invest in an elite passer early (8:16). The guys also explain how their approach changes in superflex and other league formats, helping you build the best plan for your league settings (26:13). After discussing the latest on Jahmyr Gibbs & Bijan Robinson holding in (37:27), they reveal their favorite quarterback sleepers, breakouts, and busts. The guys highlight Tyler Shough's upside (38:55), Jared Goff's steady value, and breakout cases for Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert (48:17). They also explain why they're fading Jaxson Dart this season, forecasting a potential sophomore slump (54:35). Finally, the crew wraps things up with a full QB ADP breakdown, identifying the best values & toughest draft decisions from top to bottom in your upcoming draft (1:01:50).Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ 

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Up to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Four of the first five quarterback selected in 2025 based on ADP were busts to varying degrees. Josh Allen was great. Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hertz, they disappointed us. So why are we so confident in the position this year? Are we confident in the elite quarterbacks here in 2026? And we're going to give you our strategies, our sleepers, breakouts, busts, and much more right now as the 2026 position previews begin with quarterback, which seems pretty deep and you can take advantage of that depth. Also, consider this, guys, right now, Lamar Jackson is 42nd overall in ADP.

both on Fantasy Pros and CBS. He's QB2. 42nd overall. That would be the latest that QB2 would be getting drafted on average in seven years. That is interesting. But hello to Dave and Jamie.

Jamie, what's your favorite thing about the quarterback position in 2026? I like to, in auction leagues, take the backup quarterback first. And then everyone in my league knows that I want the starter. so they won't bid as much

I love it. I love it. So you could do that with Mack Jones and Brockport. Yes. Now listen, I know there are some people casual fantasy players that are just going to listen

to the position previews maybe sleepers and busts and players. We love that kind of stuff. Jamie is making a joke at my expense from yesterday's show. But what's really your favorite thing about the position?

You said it as deep. You know, I mean, you can get guys that are potentially, you know, top 10 quarterbacks. I don't know how many top five quarterbacks, but there'll probably be one or two in contention that are going to be available in some cases in round 10 or later.

So depending on what average deposition you look at and the type of quarterback you're looking to get, four points for passing touchdowns versus six points are a little bit different here. But I think you can find guys like Trevor Lawrence late. You can find Jared Gough late. You can find Bo Nicks late, you know, guys who have been Brock Purdy late, Matthew Stafford, late.

You can find guys that have been either coming off an amazing season or have had great seasons recently that are just so cheap on draft day if you want to just take two of those guys if you are a little bit nervous. But you can just take one and still have a very good fantasy roster because that quarterback should still be very productive, especially at the cost that you're spending. Dave, what's your favorite thing about the position this year? Same answer, the depth. So the very first thing that everybody should do before they go into their draft is take a look

at any rank list for quarterbacks that you can find. and just put a checkmark next to every quarterback that you'd be okay starting. For me, there's 16. 16 guys, I'd be okay week one, putting in to my lineup on the field and expecting good fantasy numbers from. And the bigger that number is, and I think as long as the number is 14 or higher, the bigger that number is the more you should be focused on not just waiting for a quarterback, but really the focus should be on stealing the quarterback, getting a quarterback.

and I've said this so many times. I should trademark this. You should feel like you're stealing a guy from the rest of your league. You can't believe that the quarterback is there in round whatever. It could be Josh Allen in round four. It could be Lamar Jackson in round five. It could be Patrick Mahomes in round 10. You just can't believe the value.

And so you take the value. You're getting a bargain. That's what you're going for with quarterback drafting. Oh, yeah, man. Look at this ADP. QB 16 right now is Jared Gough. He's always better than that. sometimes he's much better than that.

QB 17 right now is Baker Mayfield. Let me make this real quick case for Baker Mayfield. From week 14 of 2023 to week six of 2025, that's 28 games for Baker Mayfield. He averaged 20 fantasy points per game in four-point leagues, 24.7 points per game in six-point-per-passing touchdown leagues. A 28-game stretch where he was basically elite better than Drake May in six-point per passing touchdown leagues

last year's Drake May. And then everything went wrong for him and for the box. So many injuries. And the injuries actually started even before that. So Kyler Murray is QB 18. We know his potential. Jordan Love is QB 19, Tyler Shuck, 2020. I think QB21 is someone pretty.

Malik Willis is QB 21. So it's amazing the depth here. And also just another note on depth. And we talk about greater late a lot with tight end. How about this stat? Over the last eight years, how many quarterbacks have finished top two? well, 16, right?

Of those 16 quarterbacks, nine of them were drafted as QB9 or later. So more than half, basically half of the top two quarterbacks in the last eight years have been drafted as QB nine or later, including 2025 Matthew Stafford, who was the 23rd quarterback off the board,

according to Fantasy Pro's average draft position. Unbelievable. Do you remember what the buzz was with him this time last year? Oh, my aching back. Yes. Yeah. Not sure he's even going to be able to muster through a full season, worried about what it means for Pukinakua, worried about it means for Devante Adams.

Stafford said, nuts to that. And he went out and he had an MVP year. Listen, I want to thank everybody for watching and listening and you have dedicated audience and starting to pick up some steam right now. If you are new to fantasy football today, please subscribe, you know, whether it's in Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you listen to podcast on YouTube. go to YouTube.com slash fantasy football today. Subscribe there. Please hit the like button, leave a good comment. I usually do read a lot of the comments.

I will tell you honestly, I took yesterday off. I will not be looking at the comments from yesterday's show. Your Twitter poll was amazing. My Twitter poll was so funny. I said, yeah, if someone had already taken Isaiah Pacheco in your auction, he was off the board, how would that change your big?

on Jemir Gibbs. Like, A, I would bid less on Gibbs, B, no change at all. I think as the last I checked, I would bid less on Gibbs was at 3%. But to make myself feel better, Jamie, 56 million people played fantasy football in America last year. Three percent of that is like 1.5 million or something like that. That's a good point. Yeah, a lot of people affected by my speech. All right. So you're saying about 54 million people are going against you. Or just not listening to me. But there, I'm here for the 1.5. Let's start with this. We'll have some cool stats to throw at you,

but what is your overall quarterback strategy, Jamie? To get a quality player at the right price. So, you know, for me, the most part is I'm just going to wait and play the board. You know, I've talked about taking Lamar Jackson in the last draft that we showed on the site in round five. You know, that was to me a good price. I usually live in the range of Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. Caleb. It depends on the ADP you look at it.

But yeah, Trevor Lawrence, the three quarterbacks I have typically drafted have been Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott. So those three guys. Okay. That was going to be my next question. Dave, your strategy is quarterback? The Eighth Commandment says, do not steal, but I think you should in fantasy drafts. talked about it already, feel like you're stealing your quarterback, and that's when you know it's the right time to take one. Yeah, to me, that's really been a lot of the Lamar Jackson,

Jaden Daniels, Joe Burrow, all the busts from last year, basically. And the thing about Lamar Jackson calling him a bus, he scored more than 33 fantasy points in four of his first five games. It's pretty obvious why he was a bus last year, a bunch of lower body injuries and stopped running, and when he ran, he ran poorly, the average like four points. yards per carry in the second half of the season, which is really low for Lamar Jackson. So I guess we all kind of have different times during the draft when we feel like we're stealing. But I do think that the discount on the busts last year are very interesting to me, Dave. What do you think about that whole concept?

Remember, I mentioned the four guys in Daniels, Jackson, Burrow, and Hertz, who are all either mildly disappointing or very disappointing last year. And maybe you take advantage of that this year. If you can, you should, but they're all top six consensus fantasy QBs. So I don't think, I think fantasy managers, by and large, are forgiving them for their previous years and are excited to draft them as starters this year. I think it also comes down to when you're getting them, because as you alluded to, you know, we're getting these guys later. So you still see those names and you see what their history has been. And it's like, okay, I can forgive Jane Daniels for getting hurt.

I can forgive Lamar Jackson for getting hurt. Jalen Hertz is the one that I think a lot of people are just like, I don't know if I want to draft him anymore because he's coming off at this pointy season and he just lost his best receiver. So like there's reasons to sort of pass on him. You're probably making a mistake where you're able to get him by passing on him. But I mean, I know we'll get into a bunch of stats. Like his, go for it.

His fantasy production has declined every year for five years in a row. Like that's pretty scary. It's been, it's been strange. how it's declined too, because we've seen him play amazingly well in the first half of each of his last four seasons, I believe. And then in the second half, one year he did great, stayed healthy, offense was humming. Every other year there's been a decline as he gets closer to December. And it's been for varying reasons.

It's been sometimes he leaves the game early, sometimes he doesn't even play in a couple of games. Injuries, obviously a factor last year, I would blame it more on the offense than injuries. and the lull that that offense went through in the middle and toward the end of the year, if this, if he, if this offense agrees with him and he's in sync with what he's being asked to do by Sean Mannion and that old play calling change that they have there, there might not be a drop off. And you know he's going to continue to get the tush push touchdowns. How many rushing touchdowns is he giving you every year at minimum?

Well, not last year, though. Eight, eight last year. And it's been 10 plus the four years prior. Right. I think when you draft them, you're penciling them in for at least 10 rushing touchdowns. And then I still, I know you love Devante Smith, Jamie. I love Devante Smith. I think Lemon will be a factor in that office.

Got her two. The other receivers they have, they might have lost their top receiver, but they still have another one. And the depth that they now have a wide receiver is also impressive. And they might throw to Saquan just a little bit more. I think that Jalen Hertz could have a very nice season. I don't disagree. You're going to ask me, I'm sorry, Jamie. Adam, you're going to ask me.

Who am I drafting the most of? And Jamie mentioned this. When you're getting Jalen Hertz at the right price, it's a no-brainer. It's reaching for them. It's reaching for any of these guys. What's the right price? I mean, we've got to be- I've been getting him round seven, even round eight.

I love it. I'd be happy. But he's not going to go there in most drafts. That's the problem. And then, therefore, I will not be drafted. Well, he's round six right now. Jalen Hertz, 67th overall QB-6. Is that the right price for Jalen Hertz?

Rounds? QB-6 is definitely the right price. I mean, you can make a case as high as I think probably QB-5. and, you know, some people will say probably somewhere, you know, between six and ten is, I think, the sweet spot for him. I would just look at it this way. It's like, once we start to get most of the 53 million people drafting, that probably bumps up around. You know, I think you just look at most quarterbacks. I think we'll see Josh Allen will probably be in round two.

And Lamar Jackson probably will creep into the back end of round three. And then the trickle-down effect with Drake May, et cetera. So my guess is it's probably round five is where Jalen Hurts starts to go. But QB6 is, I always look at quarterbacks with the early average. position as the number overall at the position as opposed to the overall of where they're getting drafted. I just think that's the better number. So it's it's what number are they coming off the board early in drafts. I think just in the case of hurts, like this is what we see historically around the league. When you start to get a lot of negative publicity, it's this is the make or break here.

You know, so you got the story from ESPN about how he wouldn't adapt to Petulow's system and it just, you know, he was doing his own thing. And, you know, there could be a, quarterback change here if this team struggles because of just, I think the feeling overall in Philadelphia is like they're not satisfied with what this team has done, which has been amazing. You know, two Super Bowl appearances for Jalen Hertz and one win. Like, he's been really good. It's just, you know, when he's been bad, he's been bad. And so how much of that is on the previous system, how much that is on the offensive line

struggling, how much that is just on him. And so I think this is a year where he's got to adapt to Sean Mannion. He's got to adapt to being, I think, just a more competent quarter. quarterback. And then hopefully for our purposes, the rushing is still there and he throws the ball a little bit better. So it could easily be a top three season. I mean, he's got that in his bag. I just don't like the fact that it's been a continual downward slide for four years in a row. And are we bottoming out or are we going to bounce back? Yeah. I think the main reason for the downward slide, the last two years for Jalen Hertz, is very simple. They just have not thrown the ball enough at all since they got Seekwon Berkeley. They've become so much more run heavy.

And last year he stopped running, not stop running, but he ran about two and a half times, I think, fewer per game than what we usually see from Hertz. So fewer pass attempts and fewer rush attempts is usually a bad thing. Same exact trend, though, for Josh Allen, by the way. He keeps getting fewer pass attempts. He did bounce back a little bit with the rush attempts last year. And Josh Allen, quite frankly, hasn't been as dominant as he used to be. He's more of like a 26-point score per game recently than the 28-29 point score he used to be in the Stefan Diggs era. we'll talk about that a little bit, and that's a Joe Brady thing.

They're just so run heavy now. So we've seen how leaning on the running back can hurt the quarterback a little bit, but those guys can still be really good. I just want to make two more points before we go to break here. Point number one, yes, Dave, you're right that the fantasy community is not really discounting Burrow, Daniels, Hertz, Jackson, because they're going as top five or six quarterbacks. But I'm pretty sure all of them are going later than they were last year.

I also forgot to mention that Drake May is in that mix too. So in that group of quarterbacks plus Drake May, if one of them falls to me in round six or so, money. I'm taking it. And for me, when do I know when to take a quarterback? Look, you can, if your quarterback is a bust in round six or something like, we don't typically take Josh Allen on this podcast because he goes, you know, we're not going to take a quarterback at the two three turn typically. If your quarterback is a bust, this position, it's okay. You can find replacements more easily at this position than you can at any other position. It is so deep.

In one quarterback. In one, yeah, of course, in one quarterback leagues. So to me, it's like, I think for all of us, when you just don't love the value at the other positions, you just don't have that conviction in the running back, the receiver, or the tight end, just take that quarterback. That has a chance to be awesome and feel good about it. And if you're wrong, if he stinks, then you still could be okay at quarterback. All right, let's take a break. I will ask you guys, I guess I'll make you repeat it, who you're drafting a lot, who you're skipping,

how your strategy changes in different formats. Dave's got some cool stats to know about profiles for the top 12 quarterbacks. And I will leave you with this before we go to break. In current Fantasy Pros ADP, I had to double check this. Current Fantasy Pros ADP, Philip Rivers has a higher average draft position than both of the Falcons quarterbacks.

And we'll be right back. All right, we can do this next thing a little faster here. Which quarterback do you find yourself drafting a lot? Dave. Jaylen Hertz, getting him in that late round six into early round seven range. Jamie? Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Which quarterback or quarterbacks do you find yourself skipping, Jamie?

Josh Allen. I've taken Allen, but it's been in well into round three when I've gotten him, sometimes round four. I'm really, I'm just never. gravitating toward. It's value for me. It's not name. The only name that maybe I'm passing on after kind of having a realization that he might

not be nearly as good as he was last year. And that game last week when I was huddling with the beyond the box score guys is Jackson Dart. And if that Giants offense does go more conservative and Malik neighbors isn't himself, yada yada, it's Jackson Dart who I'm probably not going to take, period. You know, again, depends on the ADP. look at Caleb Williams on fantasy pros if he goes at the number eight quarterback no way would I do that and Mahomes if he goes as the 12th quarterback no way would I do that.

Caleb is down to QB9 now on fantasy pros at 91. He used to be he used to be the, what did you say? Still too soon. 91. 91. He used to be the answer for me. Not 91, QB9. Yeah, but he's in a big group of quarterbacks. Like QB 9 is Caleb Williams, QB 10 is Herbert going two picks later. QB11, and Trevor Lawrence going five picks after that. QB12 is Brock Purdy going about eight picks after that. Then you've got Matthew Stafford, Patrick Mahom. I mean, that group could end any, could finish in any order, right? And it probably even goes to Jared Gough after that, maybe even Bo Nix.

So that's what I was saying about Herbert and Caleb. But yesterday, you know, it's like I don't want them to be at the beginning of the tier. I want to get the guy at the end of the tier. But I was also saying to Dave off the air before the show, I'll get your thoughts on this. Like I just, I look at quarterback stats say, okay, this is what they threw for and ran for last year. And I look at Caleb Williams and I go, man, it seems so easy for him to be better than 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and three rushing touchdowns.

It doesn't seem so easy for Jared Gough to be better than what he was last year, 4,500 yards, 34 touchdowns. Obviously, Matthew Stafford's not going to be better. I don't know about Trevor Lawrence. But Caleb Williams had pretty modest stats last year, and he finished as the number 10 quarterback per game, exactly where he's being drafted, basically. Doesn't it seem like it's so easy for him to do better

than what he did last year? I mean, you would hope so when you're talking about the weapons that he has and those guys coming into their own. You know, I mean, look, you get a full year of what Romo Dunes they look like at the start of the season. You get a full year of what Colston Love and look like at the end of the season, and then the flashes of what Luther Byrd showed us. Like, there's a lot to love.

There's also clearly a path where this goes, completely haywire. It's awful. You know, you have three young players that two of them at times struggled with injuries last year, Loveland at the beginning of the season, Burden at the end of the season, and, excuse me, Loveland at the end of the season. And then we're

Loveland at the beginning of the season, O'Donzee at the end of the season. And now we're anointing Luther Burden as this tremendous breakout player, which is easy to see why it could happen. But if this all goes bad, it could be ugly. And their schedule got tougher from a year ago.

You know, it's still playing outdoors in Chicago late in the year. Like, there's, there's ways where Caleb Williams cannot be great. And there's a reason why in the entire history of the franchise, they have yet to have a 4,000-yard passer. Like, a lot of it is who was there. But, like, it's, it's just, I think you got to keep expectations to check. So I think he's going to be better. I think what you see the final.

six games. He's capable of that. I don't know how much more than that, but he's capable of that, you know, right around 24 fantasy points per game. That's pretty good. And so if he can do that consistently, then yes, he'll be a top eight quarterback. And yes, Ben Johnson is awesome. And yes, all these young players can be fantastic. But you got to look at the negative too. And it could be pretty ugly if things, he misses one or two of those guys. And, you know, this receiving core is bad. You know, I don't want to see him, I'm relying on Cole Komet for an entire year. Yeah, but that's contingency downside if he's missing those guys. And he did miss Romo Dunezee for a big chunk of last year.

But that's not the reason why I think his numbers. It's accuracy. There's 33 qualifying quarterbacks just based on attempts and how much they played. He was dead last and off target rate. He was dead last in catchable throw rate. He was second to dead last in completion rate. Those first two stats, J.J. McCarthy was better than Caleb Williams.

But he was also, and these are just raw stats, top five in attempts, top seven in yards, top six in passing touchdowns. And so if he does improve that accuracy and an easy way to do that are the types of short and intermediate throws that we're expecting Luther Burden to get that we're in Colson Loveland to get and to a degree, Romo Dunes is going to get him too. That's going to help that completion rate go up. That's going to help his efficiency overall. I think there is a huge bull case for this bear to come out and have a fantastic year. He's one of the guys that I think is, it's just, he's a great guy to get at cost or a little bit later if he's slip. in your draft, I'm fine with them going in the early 90s overall.

I don't think that that's too soon whatsoever. Yeah, I just don't think that's going to be realistic, though. What do you mean that's not going to be realistic? Again, I think once all the drafts start to happen late in August, that's 10 to 15 picks higher. And so let me ask you something. Like, are you expecting every quarterback's ADP to rise in August? Or do you think maybe there's a couple that could slide down? I mean, not everyone, but I think the buzzworthy guys, which Caleb Williams is certainly one of them,

He's going to rise. The top five guys, I don't think you're going to, I don't think you're getting Jalen Hertz at 67th overall. I think, again, that's probably a round higher. I think we're going to see Lamar Jackson go into round three, if not, you know, middle of round three. I think Drake May, another buzzworthy guy that got a, you know, sniffing an upgrade. His ADP rises.

I think there's just the nature of what happens. When we get the people that are playing this game for the first time, I need to have a quarterback and they draft them too soon. I don't know that I agree with. with you because I'm looking, and I've done this before, I'm looking at last year's quarterback preview notes, the same show I did a year ago. And it seems like it seems like it stayed pretty sticky from early, late July or early August, probably late July, to what it ended up being. I'll try to confirm that. But if we did the show around the same time,

if it's late July, then I'm talking late August, like a month from now. Right. But I can look at at the final fantasy pros ADP from last year, take like Bo Nix was a round seven pick in late July, and he went 71st in late August. Baker Mayfield. Yeah, but what are the top guys? Top guys, okay. Because if you tell me Bo Nix is round seven,

then that's not what I want to be drafting. Last year, I'm saying. That's where he was both in July and in August. I don't know. This kind of seems like probably something I should do after the show. Yeah, don't worry about it. Yeah. Okay, back to, let's just do some different format things here.

How does your strategy change, Dave, in a four point per passing touchdown leagues. We've mostly been talking about six point up to this point. You prioritize quarterbacks who are going to run anyway in fantasy. You just do it even more so in leagues where it's four point for passing touchdowns because those passing touchdowns just aren't worth the same amount, whereas the rushing numbers are feasibly, you could say, are worth more. just by virtue of the quarterback touchdowns being worth less. So Joe Burrow might move down a little bit.

Justin Herbert, no, he's still got good value. Lawrence ran a bunch last year, but I don't know if he runs this much this year. Mahomes certainly, Stafford certainly. There was a five and a half point difference in Stafford's fantasy average from six point to four point. That's probably the best example I can give you of how impactful it can be if your quarterback doesn't run at all. But he still was the number two quarterback in that format. He was. It just wasn't nearly as prolific. No, because keep in mind,

yards are so important in that format, right? Passing yards are real, and he could throw for 4,800, and so could Jared golf. I've always found that the guys like Matt Ryan, it's the guys who don't throw for a lot of yards and throw for a lot of touchdowns. For example, Russell Wilson back in the day wouldn't be a big yardage guy, but he would throw over 35 touchdowns. He would have the biggest drop in a four point per passing touchdown league. But the guys who throw for a lot of touchdowns,

but also a lot of yards, they are not as bad, not as much worse as you would think. You don't have to run away from Stafford and golf. Yeah. All right. Jamie, how about like PPR, non-PPR, half-PPR,

three receiver, anything like that, change your quarterback strategy? No. All right, then let's talk Superflex here for a few minutes. And for you Superflex people, we're definitely going to do a full episode. so it's on it. How do you do how do you approach super flex leagues Jamie? I try to get at least one starting quarterback one number one quarterback one top 12 quarterback ideally early if I can you know

it's kind of like a hero quarterback strategy. I don't think you have to go quarterback quarterback I would like to get two of my top 20 guys I have a little bit probably a bigger pool of guys I think that can be number one quarterback's even Dave Dave said 16 believe for me it's around 21 so if I can get two of those guys I'm thrilled with that and then trying to get a third to third quarterback if you can. It's not a huge priority, but you don't want to leave your draft without having, hopefully three guys there. But I think for the most part, if you can, you know, try and get two quarterbacks early-ish,

you feel a little bit more comfortable about it. But if you miss on a quarterback early and you want to get two guys in the teens, I think you try and, you know, get two guys that have upside and then take a third guy that has probably a good floor. So, like, if you're looking at, I don't know if I'd want a pair, let's say, like, Malik Willis and Tyler Shuck together, like that type of combo. but if you can get a Jared Goff and a Kyler Murray and then come back with somebody like a Sam Darnel late,

just to give yourself a little bit of a safer floor. So that type of strategy as well. This is when Heath would jump in and say, be wary of the quarterbacks who could lose their job at some point during the season. Jacoby Reset, Gino Smith, Kirk Cousins, Tua, Tua of Iola. These are all quarterbacks who could get pulled if things don't go right for their teams this season. And somebody else could take over.

and if you're not playing quarterback, you're not going to be startable in a Superflex or 2 QB league. And my personal experience in Superflex league is that there is no winning strategy. Last year, Dan Schneier, one-hour league in Superflex, his first four picks, he had the sixth overall pick. His first four picks were Bijan Robinson, Pukkah, Brock Purdy, and Trevor Lawrence. So he didn't take a quarterback until rounds three and four.

He won the league. He did phenomenally with his first two picks. I've seen people go QBQBQB. win the league. I've seen people wait until round seven or later and win the league. You got to get a little bit lucky. Certainly, you got to stay healthy in Superflex, but I don't think you need to go in there going, like Jamie said, like, I got to get two quarterbacks my first. You definitely don't have to do that. But if you nail the quarterback after the first four rounds in a Superflex draft, that means you've built up your roster really

nicely at other positions, and you can still get a quarterback or two who are playing close of the same level as the top tier quarterbacks that were drafted in round one in those formats. That's the goal. That's why I kind of love the idea of waiting a little bit to take quarterbacks. And that's absolutely the case. If you're like Jamie and you look at a quarterback rank list and you say, oh, there's 21 dudes here that are awesome. You should take advantage of that. Buy into that.

Lean into that, whatever you want to say. But go after other positions first, then go get quarterback starting in round three or four. Jamie, I just checked the ADP from last year. and when we did the show, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen were going at the two-three turn. Jaden Daniels was going 33rd, Joe Burrow 37th, Jalen Hertz, 38th.

All of them moved up about three spots. But they didn't have that far to go, right? Because they were all going earlier for Allen. They were all going earlier than they are now. They all moved up a little bit. Dak Prescott went from round 10 to round 8. I didn't look at everyone. But to your point,

Yes, some of these quarterbacks definitely moved up. You should expect that, I guess. Good call. I don't know if it's going to be dramatic, but expect the quarterbacks move up in ADP based on. You could see a situation where Mahomes looks great and everybody's excited about him. Jay and Daniels looks great and everybody's excited about him. Lamar Jackson's thriving in this new offense, et cetera, et cetera. Like there's, you know, again, we're getting practice footage come out.

So there was a George Schultz, who covers the NFL for Fox Sports, posted a video. of Josh Allen, I think his post on X was Josh Allen, DJ Moore, cooking already or something like that. You know, it was just DJ more with a toe tap on the sideline. Like, those things are going to get people excited. Yeah. Okay. Mahomes especially, because people know that he's got potential to be the best quarterback in the world.

Got some news and notes for you. We'll get into ADP. We'll talk about. We mentioned Jackson Dart. Didn't really talk about him at all. I definitely want to get into him. Getting to as many quarterbacks as we can. Let me tell you what people are excited.

for this time of year. They're excited for Draftathon. It is our month-long drive to raise money for St. Jude. We've already raised $1,700, and basically nobody knows about Draftathon right now. So imagine what this is going to look like when we start putting up the FFT open spots.

Right now, you can have your mailbag questions answered for a $50 donation. You can get a spot in a mock draft for a $50 donation. These are the things that are available right now. Go to tiny URL.com slash FFT Donate

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36 freaking leagues $250 to get in. Share it with a friend if you want. It all goes to St. Jude. We're going to raise $99,000 if we sell out these leagues. The other thing I want to tell you about is our awesome fantasy app.

I've been on it. I'm actually on the clock in our Bake Burger Dynasty draft. But if you're on YouTube, dot com slash fantasy football today just scan that QR code and download the fantasy the CBS Sports Fantasy app you will not regret it it is awesome let's take a look at some important context here at the quarterback position Dave's got some good stats for us about some recent trends so 14 quarterbacks average at least 20 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown

leagues that was up from 11 in 2024 and that was really bad that was the worst season 24 was the worst season in terms of 20 point per game scores in 12 years. So we got to bounce back there. Patrick Mahomes, eight straight years of 20 or more fantasy points. I love that. Josh Allen, six straight years of 24 or more fantasy points. And I think it's probably even better than that, Dave. I don't know if you were removing the week 18s from the last two seasons where he played

one snap. I did not. And so if you do that, then that number probably is closer to 26. It's like 25.9 for Josh Allen, six straight years. That's exactly right. He's been top two quarterback in five of the last six seasons, Josh Allen. One of the best stretches, I think, in NFL history, honestly. Jalen Hertz has been really consistent, 21.8 fantasy points per game.

Last year, that's his worst in five years. Five straight years, at least 21.8 points and six point per passing touchdown leagues. Dave, tell us about this playoff team's stat. Eight of the ten quarterbacks that finish top 12 have been on playoff teams, and it's been that way. is it five straight years or 10 straight years? I don't even remember my own damn notes that I sent you. I don't either.

I've got it right here. Between 8 and 10 of the top 12 quarterbacks in each of 2021 through 2025. So it's since 2021 have been on playoff teams. So if you want a good fantasy quarterback, make sure he's on a playoff contender. Well, I wouldn't say make sure. I would say it helps if he's on a playoff contender, right? Sounds like it really helps.

It really helps. And that's pretty interesting stuff. Also, if we just take a look at, let's look at the amount of quarterbacks who have scored 22 points per game over the last decade. And you're going to see what kind of era we're in at quarterback. So again, 22 points per game, how many quarterbacks have averaged that over the last decade? Starting in 2016, 5, 6, and then we had this crazy stretch, 11, 9, 12, 12. From 2018 to 2021, quarterback production was insane. The last four years, six, seven, eight, and six quarterbacks have averaged 22 or more fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues.

And I did remove, you know, guys like Joe Flacco for five games, guys who played one game or whatever. It's guys who were starters from much of the year. Did you count purdy last year? Yes. I see seven and then I see two more that had 21.8 or more. All right. But that's not 22. Regardless, we're not in the golden era of quarterbacks.

but I think it could get, I think it really could bounce back because these rushing quarterbacks are so good and they had such bad years last year, some of them. So I think we could have a better year at quarterback. Sure. Remember Lamar didn't finish anywhere near the top 12 last year.

Daniels. Daniels was beat up. Well, Hertz was not a 22 point score. Yeah, he was 20, he was one of the guys that was at 21.8. So I would say that's close enough. You're just not counting it because you're, you're nit picky.

And then there's 100, there's not 100, but there's, you know, four other quarterbacks that you can make a case for that could finish with 22 plus easily. Let's get to some sleepers breakouts and bust real quick, though. I'm going to do injuries, news and notes. Bejohn Robinson and Jemir Gibbs are not practicing. They might be looking for new contracts. How about that? Maybe the top two picks and fantasy could be holding out. Holding it, holding in, holding in. Tootung of Iloa is dealing with back tightness, according to Adam Schaefter. He's not expected to miss much time. Michael Pennix, Jr. still not bad. from his torn ACL. The falcons signed Cooper Rush. They also put offensive lineman Juan Taylor on the Pup list.

Kirk Cousins opened camp as the Vegas starter. Got some Patriots camp news, AJ Brown and Romeo Dobbs. Both of them, their connections with Drake May a little bit off right now. Great news for Chris Olave. Fully cleared after he was dealing with that blood clot for a while.

Marvin Harrison, Jr., back at practice, a very short injury scare there. Malik neighbors could be ready for week one. We always knew that, but there's some optimism there, apparently. according to the athletic from Malik neighbors. Zach Charbonnet, according to Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated, he could be back for week one.

That's wild. Baker Mayfield's going to play out the last season of his contract this year without an extension. And Tank Dell seems to have an encouraging outlook right now as training camp begins and Micah Parsons is on the Pupplist. We'll do sleepers, players we love, and busts. To just like feel good stories, no matter how it plays out. But right now, Tank Dell being back and Jonathan Brooks being back.

and getting like just rave reviews on both. Like it's just nice to see after what those two guys have dealt with, injury-wise, like things are trending in the right direction. Who is some of your favorite sleepers, Jamie? Or sleeper or sleepers? I mean, there's so many at this position. My favorites would be Jared Gough, Tyler Shuck, Kyler Murray, and Malik Wills.

Do you think Tyler Shuck has the same upside as Gough, Murray, and Willis? Yes. I mean, we saw last year the way he closed the season. He was basically, as you see it here, 20.1 fantasy points and six of the final eight games. And he was running the ball. You know, like 30, I think it was 33 yards or more in three of his final five games. Like you're talking about a Kellynmore offense. That's awesome.

You're talking about adding Jordan Tyson. That's awesome. Healthy Chris Hollave in potentially a contract year. I think this is just one of those situations where like if you, this is the perfect guy to pair with because he's not going to be drafted as a top tall guy. So like if you want to take Stafford, you want to take Mahomes, you want to take even

at the higher end, you know, you're concerned about Jane Daniel's injury risk potentially. Like those type of guys, like Tyler Schock is going to be available to you late, certainly in a double-digit rounds based on ADP, like easy guy to pair with because the upside is great. And you see the, if you're watching on YouTube, the final

note on the graphic, Kellyn Moore's quarterback's 24.2 fantasy points per game. So that's what he has averaged during his time as a coordinator and head coach. So factoring last year with Tyler Shuck, but his time with Dak Prescott in Dallas, his one year with Justin Herbert, and his one year with Jalen Hertz. Like great quarterbacks. Obviously, Tyler Shucks got a little bit of a ways to go to get to that level. But clearly there's the opportunity here in this offense to have a very successful fantasy season. So he's, you know, just one of those guys. Like if you're super flex, like he's

one of the guys I tend to try and gravitate toward. But I just love the upside of what he can be this year if everybody stays healthy and his receiving court. His completion rate in each of his last eight starts was never lower than 65 percent. And then Jamie mentioned this. In his last five games, he had three where he ran for at least 30 yards, three total rushing touchdowns in those last five games. I wouldn't say he's a huge rushing threat, but it is part of the profile on top of the fact. He's a really good passer. I think the two things that stand out to me, number one, the addition of Tyson. I know I'm not a huge Tyson fan for fans. this year, but I do think he will help.

But also, this is a team that's going to play at a fast pace. So there should be a high amount of volume for Tyler Shuck out there on the field. And that makes them a very intriguing sleeper, even if you want to stash him in one QB leagues with a late pick. And Jared Goff, we know we've talked about maybe we have some concerns about their secondary. They have only one cold weather game all season, most likely, at Chicago. Schedule is amazing.

In week 17. They're at Green Bay in week 18. That won't matter. so great schedule for golf. For Malik Willis, you're going, you're going, Melik Willis, his offense stinks, right? The Dolphins stink.

I want to remind you, in 2022, Justin Fields was a top seven quarterback per game. The Bears went three and 14. Their leading receiver was Colquamette, who had 544 yards receiving. And Justin Fields was a top seven quarterback. So when you can run in six starts,

six career starts, Malik Willis has averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game and has four touchdowns. So that's a 17-game pace of 762 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns based on his six career starts. So I thought I didn't see. I didn't notice this kind of stat. Well, I mean, I didn't look it up until yesterday. Like, can you be a good quarterback on a terrible team?

And Justin Fields is the answer there. And Malik Willis, you know, maybe can do that. And then Kyler Murray, I think we all know. We don't have to give much analysis there. We know what the deal is. do you rank them golf kiler shuck willis how do you rank them jame goff i go back and forth kiler and shuck but right now it's kylear goff schuyler kyler kyler kylk willis dave who's your favorite sleeper i don't want to put a k on the front of tyler shucks last name i would go

with goff first kiler and malik are the two that i go back and forth on and then Shuck is right behind them. Oh, no, I'm sorry. You're a sleeper. Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you asked me to rank those guys. It's basically the same list. I would throw Jordan Love in there, too,

just because I'm a little more optimistic that the cleaning out of the receiving core for Green Bay, plus the questions that they have at running back could lead to Jordan Love doing a lot. There's obviously an injury concern there. But Jordan Love has shown us that he can be at least capable. He had seven games last year with 20 plus. He had 38 in his lone playoff game, 18.7 overall, I think he can build on that and be better than that.

And I think the Packers will be another team, particularly with Michael Parsons, potentially missing the first four games. They might get off to a start where they need to throw the ball a lot. So Jordan Love is, I would add love to the list that Jamie gave. I do love Malik Willis, though. As a guy to draft with a last pick, stash and see what happens, this is contingent on having a decent camp. And my guess is that Miami is just going to have them be, you know, quick,

quick trigger type of thrower, lots of RPO, zone reads, stuff like that, take advantage of his rushing. And he will run a ton for Miami. And that's obviously a cheat code and fantasy. So this is definitely somebody who could be in that mold of Drake May. He's not the same type of thrower, obviously, although he's not too far off.

I liked his film as far as his passing went last year. And he's in an offense that he's comfortable with. It's basically the Green Bay offense from 2025. It makes me encourage to take that late round shot. on him. My favorite part of my Scott Fishbowl team is my three quarterbacks are Jared Gough, Tyler Shuck, and Malikwell's. And when did you draft any of them? I bet you didn't take any of them anywhere close to win. No, they're superflex, though. You know, so no. No, no, they were both, they were all three after round six. Exactly. That's awesome. Man, everyone's a

sleeper at this position. They're all so good. Honestly, I got to throw Baker Mayfield in there. I already made the case earlier, but he actually has some decent history. in recent years without Mike Evans. Think two years ago when Evans missed those three games. He was fine. Jalen McMillan stepped up. Chris Godwin was also out at that point. He's got two years in a row averaging over 22 rushing yards per game.

I don't really understand how that's happening, but maybe he's at 17, 18 rushing yards per game. Baker Mayfield going so late, he might be a good bounce back. We're going to take a break and get some breakouts and busts, and then ADP review after this. Breakouts or players we love. Dave, I'll let you start. We already talked about Caleb Williams,

And I think he's a tremendous breakout candidate. All he needs to do is just improve his completion rate and his efficiency and just the raw totals will follow. I think the explosive elements that his offense was missing in the first half of 2025 will be their form. That's Colson Loveland and Luther Burden. And he had Odunze at the beginning of the year. And as long as O'Donze is healthy, that's going to be another part of the offense form too. I don't see a problem taking him in that round eight range. Jamie, favorite breakout?

So this is always a tricky one with me with this position because, like, we got a great sample size of Caleb Williams breaking out last year. And you could say, okay, or yeah, breaking out last year. You could say he was already a break out. I have the same thing with Trevor Lawrence. Like, he broke out in the second half of the season last year. His last seven games, or eight games, including the playoffs. Like, he was averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. He's just never done it for a complete season.

So that's the one that I would say of the, you know, guys getting drafted in the top 12. But, I mean, all the guys we just talked about as sleepers. we call them sleepers because of their ADP. Those are breakout candidates, you know, aside from golf and Kyler-Marie, but like Tyler Stock's going to have, you know, arguably a chance to be a top-12 guy. Malik Willis has a chance to be a top-12 guy.

These guys have never done anything like that in the NFL before. So I think if you're looking at it, like who has a chance to be better consistently, Caleb qualifies, Trevor Lawrence, qualifies, but you can also make a case that those guys had breakout seasons last year. Yeah, that's why I always say,

sleepers when you weeks, breakouts when you leagues, TM. We think breakouts are better players than the sleepers. We think Trevor Lawrence has more upside than Tyler Shuck. It's not necessarily about having your best season. I know, Jamie, you've also been very high on Justin Herbert. And if Heath were here, you know, I laid out on Twitter the other day a statistical argument against Justin Herbert. And it's basically the only two times he's been an elite quarterback in fantasy. His first two seasons in the NFL, he averaged more than 26 fantasy points per game. And he threw 30, he threw more than 39,

passes per game both years. He's never been a yards per attempt standout. He's never been a touchdown rate standout. His rushing totals last year were great, but I don't think we can expect that again. He had a career rushing year. He's usually like a good rusher, about 350-ish yards, not a great rusher.

So he needs an efficiency spike because Mike McDaniel's not a guy who throws a ton typically, and they should have a pretty... Slow pace. It's a slow pace off. Yes, it is. But then there are just so many reasons to like just, So how much do you like Justin Herbert?

And are you okay with his ADP? Herbert is QB10 right now going 93rd? Absolutely bleeping love it. You know, if he's outside of the top eight quarterbacks, I think he's got top five upside. And so, you know, yes, there are certainly reasons to, you know, be worried about Justin Herbert for what you laid out on Twitter and the arguments you just made. It's like different sample sizes for him all throughout his career, right?

because we saw early Justin Herbert having to throw a lot. We saw the last couple of seasons prior to last year where it was just a mess with his receiving core being hurt, with his offensive line being injured. And then you can look at with Joe Alt without Joe Alt last year, like 25 plus fantasy points per game in the six games that Alt played. And really four of those, he was 100% healthy. Two of those, he was, you know, kind of thing playing through something. And that was without response later.

You see on, if you're watching on the, on YouTube, in the games that Joe Ald played, a touchdown down better than when Joe Out was not there from a team perspective. They're points per game, 25.3 points per game when Joel was on the field, 18.3 without. Now you're adding in Mike McDaniel. Now you're, I think, you know, getting a healthier Ladd-McConkie. Quinn Johnson, Clinton Johnson building off last year, a better version of Trey Harris. David Nogoku, a very underrated addition that they have.

Keene Mitchell, a very underrated addition that they have. We don't love those guys for fantasy. They're great for your NFL team. And so, you know, you got to hope that everything stays. on the field for them because Slater didn't play and Alt struggled to stay healthy with the ankle problem. But if you have those two guys there, that just made everything better for just Alt being there,

made everything better for Justin Herbert. And so the Mike McDaniel Rinkle, I think is huge, you know, the fact that he got a season. I think if you were to say, go back in the history of the league, hey, look at all the quarterbacks

that led the NFL in passing yards. To it, to a tongue of, tongue of my low. Oh, yeah. You know, like now he gets this. You know, it's just such a huge upgrade in terms of what the player is. And so, yes, there may not be the ideal optimal situation of crappy defense, greatest receiving core, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, all those things we, you know, annoy for those guys.

But if he does run anything close to what he did last year, and now you have McDaniel's offense, and now you have the tackles healthy, like, I'll definitely take him if he's going at his cost. I'll reach for him a little bit. So he wanted the best years of Desherbert's great. Does he get back to, you know, being north of 26 fantasy points per game? That's a big ask. But I think he could hover around the 25 point per game range and that makes him a pretty good fantasy value.

You know what his floor is? It's pretty high. He's had at least 19 fantasy points per game every year of his career. So even if you're just not 100% sure on everything that Jamie said, at least you know that Justin Herbert has never, like, crushed people in fantasy, other than, you know, bad games here and there.

But on average, he's pretty good. And his ceiling is very good. That's why he's my QB7. Top 11. I saw this yesterday from the footballers. It was funny. So he just, Justin Herbert just got engaged. I think it was two days ago.

And they posted Mahomes engaged 2020, QB4, Super Bowl appearance. Brock Purdy, 2023, QB6, Super Bowl appearance. Christian McCaffrey, 23, RB1, Super Bowl appearance. Josh Allen, 2024, QB1, NFL MVP.

Sam Darnold career year Super Bowl winner. Justin Herbert in 26. Well, he's got competition, buddy, because Brock Bauer has also got engaged. Hey, tight in one. Yes, four of six seasons, Justin Herbert's been 11th per game or better. Okay. This is a tougher one. I mean, it's so easy to be optimistic.

Who's going to be a bust, Dave? I'm going to go with Jackson Dart. And it's kind of an easier case to make with him just because he came into an offense last year that was just like frenetic and desperate for help, and now they're trying to curate it to be a lot more conservative, be a lot more run-heavy. And I know it almost sounds counterintuitive because Malik neighbors, it sounds like he's going to make his comeback a little bit better than anticipated, and anybody that's throwing him has a chance to put up huge numbers.

Do you know, this is really the stat that took me off of Jackson Dart. He had nine rushing touchdowns last year. Take all of them away. he averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game. Of the nine touchdowns, five of them came inside the 10. I don't think that the giants are going to call many plays for Dart to stick his head into the end zone to try and score a touchdown. Especially if they've got scataboo, and even if they don't have scataboo, I think that there could be other ways that they can create those touchdown opportunities. So even if you cut the rushing touchdowns in half, you keep every other metric that he has about the same.

maybe you boost the passing efficiency a little bit more. I'm not sure he can get to the 22.6 fantasy points per game that he had in 12 games last year when he had at least 19 dropbacks. That's the sample that I think is probably the most phase. Yeah, and yeah, fine, 19.4 and 12 starts is what I actually got. Oh. I just, I worry about him. I worry about I'm hitting that upside.

You're not wrong in obviously the assessment of the nine rushing touchdowns, but I mean, you could obviously do that for Jalen Hertz. you could do that for Josh Allen, you can do that for Trevor Lawrence last year. Like, you know, you're taking away something that I still think part of the- There's a pretty big track record of those guys. No, but still, like, you know, you're taking, so do it for Trevor Lawrence then. I mean, you're taking away, you know, a career high for him in nine rushing touchdowns. I don't think he's going to get nine.

That's just impossible. I don't think he's going to be second among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game like he was last year also. But that's still who he is. And so, like, you know, if you take that number and let's say you take 10 yards off the rushing yards and you cut the rushing touchdowns in half because I think that's probably fair. So you go to 30 rushing yards per game and probably four rushing touchdowns. Then it's a matter of what else does he give you from a passing perspective. And everything around him is better in that

regard because the offensive line is better and healthier. You add Isaiah likely, you have Malik neighbors. He played a half with Malik neighbors last year. His first NFL start was week four. That was when neighbors suffered the torn ACL. So you're giving him neighbors to whatever version of neighbors is, it's better than what they have. You're giving him likely. You're giving him Mooney. the only subtraction is Wandale Robinson, which is a big loss from a volume standpoint. I don't know if it's a big loss from a player standpoint with what they're adding to replace him.

And so likely could take that role. I think you just look at it and say, I think Dart can be in a similar range. I don't want to reach for Jackson. To me, him and Caleb Williams are almost very similar. You know, you're asking two young quarterbacks to take a step forward, and I just don't want to reach for those guys.

If I get them at a good cost as, you know, QB10 or later, which right now, dart is where he's going, so I think that's fine. No, sir. He's higher than that where? He's seven on fantasy pros. He's where? QB7.

Yeah, that's, that's a bust. He is my Bownix from last year where I said, I like Bownix, but I don't know that I like him better than the guy who's going six spots, six quarterbacks behind him. He's the beginning. See, this is kind of what I was saying about Herbert and Caleb Williams. Now it's Jackson Dart. It's like he shouldn't be at the front of this tier. I don't think.

I'm not comfortable with it. I think we all kind of feel that way. It's not that we don't like Jackson Dart. He's going 90th overall on CBS. He's going 80. As QB what? As QB 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Yeah, still too soon.

I thought he was later than that. And pretty much tied with Herbert for 8. They're, like, basically tied with QB8. Yeah. So we love Jackson Dart. Dave, I would just say if he rushes for fewer touchdowns, he probably will throw for more. That's what we've seen from Josh Allen.

The last few, like, he's thrown fewer touchdowns, and he's compensated by running for more. but I think we're all in agreement here on Jackson Dart that he's not clearly better than so many of the guys right behind him so don't be the one who takes him before, you know, to lead the tier. Jamie, who's a bus for you?

For me, it's strictly an ADP thing. It's my homes, you know, going as QB12. I just don't want to draft him as a starter. I think what we saw last year, huge spike in production, and that was with the rushing, which I think comes way down. You know, you have the ACL, the injury to his knee.

don't expect him to rush as much anymore, or not to this level. You know, it was a career high in rushing yards in just 14 games for him. Do like the fact that Bianmi is back. His best years have come with Bianney, but that was also with peak Travis Kelsey and Tyree Kill,

so just to factor that into the equation. But I would rather have Jared Gough than Patrick Mahomes. You know, I would rather have Trevor Lawrence than Patrick Holmes. I think in CBS Sports ADP, that's not the case. And I really at this point, like, if I have to take Mahomes at his price versus Chuck or Murray or those other guys, I think there's just as much upside for those other

quarterbacks this year as well. So I just think Mahomes is going to revert back to what he was prior to last season when the rushing was not there and the passing numbers were minimal. He's just not the same guy for me. But if there was ever a guy that loses on rushing touchdowns and gains on passing touchdowns, it would be Patrick Mahomes. But it wasn't prior to last season, though.

That's fair. And I think a lot of that had to do with kind of an uneven group of wide receivers, players, that were in and out, and I think that that was a factor as well. Let me take you back to 2019. He averaged 3.1 attempts per game. That was a career low for him, 218 rushing yards and two touchdowns and 14 games.

Is that the kind of pace that you're thinking for him as a runner? Do you think it'll even be lower than that? Lower. I don't know. I think he'll still give you two or three rushing touchdowns, 250 to 350 rushing yards. It's not anything. The rushing touchdowns I can buy the yards, no.

Yeah, he can compile them. I think he's still a hell of a thrower. And we saw a lot of his metrics last year, really tank. His completion rate was way down. His yards per attempt was still pretty good. Adot was kind of on pace with where he's been. I wonder if they take a few more shots this year. And I wonder if it's because the run game is now a factor for them.

The A dot was way up, Dave, actually, 8.1. The previous two years, it was like 6.3 and 7. I'm not seeing A.1 for the A.DOT. Oh, maybe I'm crazy. I thought he threw the ball more downfield. Patrick Mahomes last year, which I think is huge for him. He has to do that, but he stinks at it lately. He's been one of the worst deep ball passers in the NFL over the last few years. He really needs to improve there. And it has been somewhat drops, but it's been somewhat on him. He's just been inaccurate. And I don't want to become like the Mahomes guy, and I don't think he's a top eight quarterback or anything like that. I think he's a great pick at value. Yeah, you like him as a sleeper.

Jamie does not. I am seeing, I had 8.1 now I'm seeing 7.9 on pro football reference. I think 8.1 on true media. But yeah, he did throw the ball downfield more than he had in the previous four seasons last year. Okay, let's get to some ADP and we'll see if we like these values. Josh Allen, 25th overall. Do we like it? No.

No, a little too soon. Do you think DJ Moore gets him closer to where he used to be, where he's still, you know, still the best, basically, but not quite as good as it used to be. Definitely doesn't hurt. He would be closer, yes, with DJ Moore. So when would you take Josh Allen? Late round three. Late round three, early round four.

Okay. And you don't have to listen to us. I mean, the fact is he... Someone in your league will definitely not listen to us. There will be one person in every home league that takes Josh Allen at that ADP. And he's the safest player in fantasy. Or earlier. So I don't blame them.

He's the safest player in fantasy. It's always when you draft a quarterback and you go, oh, I can't believe I took him this early when you start to see the other value of those quarterbacks. Then when you look at your team by the end of it, you're like, oh, I got a great player. Yeah, exactly. Lamar Jackson in round four.

Yes. I'm okay with it. Are we encouraged by the love affair that it seems to have with his new offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, so much positive buzz. You know, it's very strange that a new situation develops in the NFL and people are just so excited about it. that never happens.

It does seem kind of genuine the way that the players seem very excited about the new offense. Yes, they're excited. Especially after you heard John Harbaugh speech. Imagine how much they've heard that in the last several years. Like it's probably just been tired and, you know, worn out at this point. So they got a new voice and, you know, new people in the building and they're energized.

Look at what Lamar has done when he's had a first year play caller. His first year with Monkin, he was awesome. I got to think back. I don't have the name. It was Greg Roman. Was there Roman? Yeah, Greg Roman designed an offense for him and Cabo. Yeah, an MVP year.

Yeah. It wasn't the first year. I'm thinking Doyle can do that. And we're already hearing about how they're doing a lot more play action stuff and multiple tight end stuff. And Doyle was certainly somebody that had made an impact in Chicago and their play calling. And certainly their play designs. And so he's doing that now in Baltimore.

And he should be, it should work. out for Lamar. Hopefully he's healthy and he stays that way. All right, we've got Joe Burrow, we got Drake May, Joe Burrow, and Jaden Daniels as QB's 3, 4, and 5 respectively in rounds five. May, Burrow, Daniels. You guys rank them

just like that for Jamie and Dave, you actually have May, Burrow hurts and then Daniels. Okay, so this seems like good ADP for those guys. Do you put Daniels ahead of Burrow in 4 points for passing touchdown leagues? Yep. You have to.

I don't know that you do necessarily. It depends who you feel is safer. You know, both of them have injury concerns, but I think if they're both healthy, I think Burroughs safer just because, man, the talent around him is insane. Burrow is definitely safer. Yeah.

I don't know, definitely safer. He's safer. Jayden Daniels, I give this stat a lot. He only played 100% of the snaps in four games. Based on those four games, he averaged 22.7 points in four point per pass. touchdown leagues and 26 points per game in six point per pass in touchdown leagues. And, oh no, shoot, that was 20, I'm sorry, that was 20, I'm sorry, but it was 15.6. I'm sorry,

it was 19.6 and 23.1. 19.6 points per game in 4 point, 23.1 in 6 point. That's still really good based on the four games he played. And he didn't even have a rushing touchdown in those games. And that's also with, you know, I saw some comments in here about Daniel's with his receiving Corps now. That was really without Terry McLaurin at the start of the season. Yeah, I mean, with a, not a, not the real Terry McLaren. Adam, I got a, I got a bounce, but. Oh, sorry about that. All right, Dave, we'll, Dave, had to go. Jamie will finish up Jalen Hertz in round six. And then we've got Jackson, Dart, and Dak Prescott at the seven, eight

turn. What do you think about Dak being there? At the seven, eight turn? Yeah, like, well, so at sort of at the beginning of that big tier. So after Jalen Hertz, We have Jackson Dart and Dak Prescott, and then Caleb and Herbert and Lawrence and Purdy and Stafford and Mahomes and Knicks and golf, et cetera. Yeah, I mean, listen, this is where these guys are going to get drafted. So it's the right range for them. And I think hopefully they perform, stay healthy, do everything you're counting on. You know, we start to get to that point with running backs and receivers where there's a falloff.

So it's easy to gravitate for a quarterback, as you said. But do you think Prescott, because we kind of said Dart feels like a reach there. at the beginning of this big tier of really good quarterbacks. What do you think about Prescott there? I like Dak. You know, I think what we saw from him last year, you know, is replicable when you have these two receivers that are playing at a high level, you know, so the pass attempts will be there.

You know, he typically averages about 34 pass attempts per season, per game per season. And the thing that makes me nervous is he hasn't had back-to-back healthy seasons since 2018, 2019. You know, so can he overcome that and stay healthy for the second year in a row? But I think Dallas is going to be a fantastic team, you know, overall. I think they're going to take a big step forward because their defense got better. And that's the really concern is that the defense get better enough to where we lose a little bit of that shootout potential. But I think just DAC has everything that you look for in terms of the fantasy profile because of the receivers he plays with.

Then we have Caleb Williams and Justin Herbert in round eight. You definitively like Herbert better than Caleb? I do. Boy, that's a tough one for me. All right, you go Herbert there. Then we have Lawrence in round nine. You like Lawrence better than Caleb, right? I do.

Do you like Brock Purdy better than Caleb Williams? No. Okay. So this is maybe where you would put Caleb Williams. Also in round nine, we have Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes at the 9-10 turn. Purdy is one of the best values you can find. I want to tell you one thing I don't love about Purdy, though, because I do love him as a

player. He's been top 11 per game in three straight seasons, top six per game. in two of the last three seasons. He's a good rusher. He's an underrated player. But the problem I see is I hate his schedule. Rams twice. They might have the best defense in football. Seattle twice. They had arguably the best defense in football last year. Only one game against Arizona. He plays them in week 18. He gets Denver. He gets Minnesota. The fantasy playoffs at the Chargers, at the Chiefs, home against Philadelphia. When you look at last year, he put up huge numbers against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Bears. Those were great matches.

at the end of the year. In his last three games, he struggled twice against, he scored 10.5 fantasy points and two games combined against Seattle. One of those was in the playoffs. He played okay against Philadelphia in the fantasy playoffs. So I, I love Purdy. I hate the schedule. What do you think?

That's a really good point. And you're also asking him to rely on a 32-year-old George Kittle coming off in Achilles injury, a 32-year-old Mike Evans who struggled to say healthy each of the last two seasons, a 30-year-old Christian McCaffrey who hasn't been able to sustain health after 400 plus touched seasons twice in his career. Ricky Pierce also has stayed healthy. Like there's a lot of things that go wrong from, I guess. So yeah, that's a little bit of a knock against him.

But at least for me, like I'm not drafting him as a as a number one quarterback. He's in that group, like you said, of borderline number one, number two quarterback. So I think it's worth the cost where you're getting. And Eric says, good call, Adam, but he somehow seems to make it work. And that's kind of how I feel about Purdy. It's like, yes, somehow the 49ers offense in general, just they seem to make it work. All right.

So we go, Purdy, we're running out of time. I don't know what else to say about Matthew Stafford. We haven't really said anything about him, but he was the best pick and fantasy last year. What do you think about Stafford? Yeah, I mean, look, the value is still good on what he can give you because, you know, as you're watching on YouTube, of his last five seasons, two were absolutely amazing.

historic one led to a Super Bowl run. One arguably should have been a Super Bowl run. It was an NFL MVP season last year. And then three years of mediocre production. You know, how much of that was the back? How much of that was the receiving core being, you know, banged up? I think you look at what Stafford still has to offer at 38 years old and everything around him. The only concern that I would have is do we get the yard still?

I think the touchdowns can be close, which is a big ass, but I think it could be close. but their defense could just be so dominant that he doesn't throw as much. So we still see the red zone touchdowns. We still see the opportunity for him to be north of 40 or right around 40. I would probably peg it around like 38. But I think we're going to see a downward decline in the yards.

I think last year was his second most yards of his career, right? 4707. I'm not sure. It was a top three season for him. He had a 5,000 yard year once in Detroit. Matthew Stafford is like the only quarterback in the last five years. last four years to average 24 or more fantasy points and six points for passing touchdown leagues

while being on pace for fewer than 200 rushing yards. So he bucked the trend. It used to happen quite a bit, though. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan twice, Tom Brady multiple times, Drew Brees multiple times, Matthew Stafford's actually done it twice. Ben Rothensburg, Andrew Luck, Dak, Prescott, guys who didn't run a lot,

they still could have huge fantasy seasons, but it hadn't really happened in a while until Stafford did it. Keep that in mind for him, keep that in mind for Jared Gough. All right, Mahomes at the 9, 10 turn. just heard two different takes. Jamie doesn't like it. Dave does. Bo Nix in round 11. I mean, again, if he stays in the 9-10 range, it's fine. It's just, I look at it, the overall QB number. There are guys I like a little bit better than Mahomes after.

Fair enough. What about Bo Nix? Jared Gough, Baker, Mayfield, Kyler Murray. It's so funny how we treat Bo Nix. We've said this several times now. Like, Josh Allen, oh my God, look, he just got DJ Moore. Oh, my God. Drake May just got A.J. Brown. Oh, my God. This quarterback gets that guy. This quarterback gets this other player. oh God, Bo Nix got Jalen Wall. We're going to downgrade him based on where he's finished. Look, I'm guilty of it too. I'm concerned about the ankle injury limiting his rushing production

because he's giving you about 350 rushing yards each of the last two seasons. But he's been a top 12 quarterback in each of the last two seasons. And now he has Jalen Waddle. And so I think there's an argument to be made that he's one of the better values you can get on draft day. I would not want to draft him as a number one quarterback, but one of the high-end number two guys is great. Bo Nix has been one of the worst throwers in the NFL of passes of 30 or more air yards.

I usually look at 20 more air yards, but when it comes to just throw in the ball deep downfield, he stinks. And he does it all the time. He's got among the most pass attempts of 30 or more air yards. If Jalen Waddle can help him there, or he just gets better, that could unlock a new weapon for Bo Nix. Jared Gough, we love in round 11. Baker Mayfield in round 13, Kyler Murray in round 13. And now we're 18 quarterbacks deep.

And maybe, for me anyway, that's kind of where I look at it and go, all right, I don't know that I've got a potential league winner after this. But maybe you feel differently because we have Jordan Love. And if he starts, listen, man, if you're worried about Josh Jacobs, you should be higher on Jordan Love out there. If he starts throwing more, it would be really good.

Tyler Shuck, Malik Willis. Okay, then we've got Sam Darnold, C.J. Stroud, Cam Ward, Fernando Mendoza, Daniel Jones. It was great last year. Bryce Young, after Daniel Jones, it gets kind of yucky. But does there anyone you want to talk about other than we talked about Love, Shuck, Willis? We got Darnold, Stroud, Ward, Mendoza, Daniel Jones. Jones is certainly intriguing because of what he did last year. But coming off the Achilles injury, We know that he needs to run a little bit. I don't know if he needs to get back to running like he did when he was at the start of his giant's career. But I think that matters. And so coming off the Achilles, I think it's going to be a little bit of a tough ask. So more of a superflex option, Sam Darnold, another guy that I think will throw a little bit more this year because the run game could be suspect. But do you love the weapons aside from Jackson Smith and the Jigba?

You've gotten some positive pub from Rashid Shahid. You mentioned the Aberbeer story. Shahid was prominently mentioned in that article as well. I'm curious about Cammore. I could see a strong season for him. I don't know to what heights, but like in that 20 point per game range, you know, he closed last year playing very well before the shoulder injury in Week 18. And now you give him Cardinal Tate, you give him Wondell Robinson, you give him Brian Dable.

And so hopefully the increased weapons and better coaching maybe helps him take a step forward as well. So somebody you want to keep an eye on. Jamie, can I interrupt you? I forgot. There's one thing I wanted to mention that I forgot, and for those of you who are listening to the whole show, I went back,

I looked at quarterbacks who were drafted after QB12 and finished top eight. So I call them the biggest surprise quarterbacks in fantasy, okay? A lot of them, not all of them, not even half of them, but I'm going to guess about 40% had new offensive coordinators. And you look at Justin Herbert, you look at Cam Ward.

there are so many new offensive coordinators this season, by the way. Amar Jackson. But last year, yeah, Lamar Jackson. But last year it was Trevor Lawrence and K, I don't think Caleb Williams was drafted after QB12. Maybe it was Q. Who's that? Baker. Baker two years ago had a new offensive coordinator and was one of those surprise quarterbacks.

Well, Baker did last year too. Yeah, and he sucked. But it is kind of a common theme. Like once upon time was Ben Rothesberger. I got a new offensive coordinator and had a big season. Dak Prescott got Kellan Moore and was one of the surprise quarterback. Caleb Williams got Ben Johnson. Right.

I do think he was one of the guys on the list. So it is maybe a little bit of a cheat code. Not the best cheat code. It's a cheat code that works sometimes, but it's a cheat code nonetheless. And Daniel Jones actually, I think he had his lowest rushing output of his career last year. He had his worst yards per carry. He was on pace for only 227 yards in his healthy games. So he actually showed last year Daniel Jones that he could be good

without running the ball a lot. But, you know, coming off. You say healthy games. You factor in the two that he played with the broken leg? Yeah. I just don't, I remove week 14 where he played like a quarter. Gotcha. Yeah.

And then I don't know if there's anyone else. Bryce Young, Aaron Rogers, Shudor Sanders, Jacoby Brissette, J.J. McCarthy. That's interesting. You know, again, what he did last year, but do they lead the NFL in past attempts? And how much does he, how long, Does he hold on to the job if he starts to struggle or the team starts to struggle and they go to Carson Beck? And then obviously, once we figure out who the Falcons quarterback is,

that guy could be a top 20 guy. You know, he could definitely be someone more streaming for sure. Sure. But tough to know who it's going to be. If you had to pick a quarterback that is, if you're looking at ADP, QB 15 or later, QB 16 or later, who would you be to be a top 12 guy?

I'm going to say QB 18, QB 19 or later, because 16, 17, 18 are Gough, Mayfield, Murray. So after that, it's Love, Shuck, Willis. It's got to be one of them. To be a top 12 guy, I would say, I would say Jordan Love, then Willis, then Shuck. And I would say Sleeper in the two quarterback leagues would be C.J. Stroud. We've seen, you know, when things are right and his guys are healthy, he's fine.

he's a good, I think, two-quarterback league sleeper. C.J. Stroud, I don't think he can be top. I think he could be top 12. I mean, there's always guys that get in the back end. I don't think you have a great year. How's that for an answer? Good. I just, I look, Malik Willis, man, his rushing is just insane.

He's so talented. Could be. Yeah. That's our quarterback preview. Tight ends tomorrow. Thank you so much, everybody, for watching and listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today. Podcasts.