Fantasy Football Today - 2026 WR Tiers UNVEILED! Rankings, Projections & Draft Strategy (07/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 15, 2026

We kick things off with Malik Nabers coming off his injury (2:00) before breaking down our top tiers, including why Amon-Ra St. Brown cracks Heath's Tier 1 (8:12), the debate between CeeDee Lamb and J...ustin Jefferson (13:10), and the conversation around George Pickens vs. CeeDee Lamb (17:25).We also discuss Heath's high ranking on Zay Flowers (20:02), Jamey's breakdown of AJ Brown (22:20), and whether Tier 4 is filled with safe options or risky players (25:55). Then we get into the best values in Tier 5 (38:50), debate whether we believe in Parker Washington in Tier 6 (53:15), and finish with players in Tier 7 who could outperform their draft cost (1:05:18).Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify and wherever else you listen to podcastsWatch FFT on YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW FFT Dynasty on Spotify: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? It's a no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
Starting point is 00:00:21 Wide receiver tiers. Does Amon Rae St. Brown belong in the top tier with those first three wide receivers? Jemar Chase, Jackson Smith and Jigba. who can a go. Well, it depends who you ask. Because Heath and Jamie have different takes on that. I'm Adam Azor with Heath Cummings. Hey, Heath. Hey, what's up, Abbaugham? And Jamie will be joining us shortly
Starting point is 00:00:41 before we get to the wide receiver tiers. We'll knock out some news and notes. Gino Smith will not be charged after a woman accused him of assault. So the police investigated that. There will be no charges. And hopefully that will be the end of that.
Starting point is 00:00:57 Now, the Giants, we got some big news. John Harbaugh did an interview yesterday. I think it was yesterday, I did an interview with these recently, and he said that Malik Neighbors and Cam Scadaboo are on schedule. Scadaboo, he thinks he's going to be ready early in training camp. Neighbors is going to work his way into practice. He was a little vague on Malik Neighbors, but he feels good about both of these players, about their recoveries.
Starting point is 00:01:19 Quote, you'll see a lot of those guys this season. Scadabu, though, further ahead of Malik Neighbors. Let's talk about Malik Neighbors before we get into the wide receiver tiers because he has to be one of the hardest ones to tear, of course. but what do you think about Neighbors right now after these optimistic comments, but still non-committal comments from John Harbaugh? Yeah, he was one of the players that I moved down a tier from where he was in my projections just to try to more accurately rank or show his value.
Starting point is 00:01:53 And his projections have already been impacted by the injury. So I think Malik Neighbors, if he had no health concerns, is probably, a tier two wide receiver. When we get to, I don't know where he lands in Jamie's tiers. When we get to my tiers, he will show up in tier four. Because it's not just when is he ready, but it's when is he Malik neighbors. He is tier six for Jamie with DJ Moore, Jalen Waddle, Mike Evans, and Devante Adams. Yeah, he's lower on him than I am.
Starting point is 00:02:26 I have all of those guys in tier five, but a tier below Malik Neighbors. Yeah, the tier above that for Jamie is Teddiro, Errol McMillan, Ladd-McConkey, Terry McLaurin, Luther Bird and Garrett Wilson. Those are, that's a mixture of tier four and tier five guys for me. Yeah, we can let Jamie speak for himself on Malik Neighbors now. But let me bring this up with Malik Neighbors. I think he's a guy that we all watch, have eyes.
Starting point is 00:02:52 We know he's better than his numbers. His numbers, I feel like they're honestly not that great since entering the NFL. There have been 121 wide receivers with four. 50 or more targets in that stretch. And Malik Neighbors is 73rd in explosive play rate. And that's kind of what he's supposed to do. He's supposed to be a big playmaker. He hasn't really been that.
Starting point is 00:03:12 It's been kind of like Garrett Wilson in that regard. He has, this is an interesting one. He has 71 or more yards in seven games. He's played 19 games, Malik Neighbors. I really call it 18 games. He got hurt toward the ACL and I think it was meniscus as well in week four. So 18 games. And more than 71 yards and seven of those games, in those seven games with more than 71 yards,
Starting point is 00:03:39 his quarterbacks have averaged 36 pass attempts per game. Now, twice they've been under 30, but you've got games with 41, 40, 37, 49, 34 pass attempts. Jackson Dart averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game in his 12 starts. He did leave one of those games early. But I think that, you know, just have to consider, Jamie, what do you think? Do we have to consider a little bit of a different environment for neighbors, not only coming off the injury, but also they brought an Isaiah likely and Darno Mooney.
Starting point is 00:04:07 They did lose Wando, I know. But they have a quarterback who's more likely to run. So what does that all mean to you as you look at neighbors? And again, we talked about what John Harbaugh just said about him, but your thoughts, sir? I think you have to take into account all of it. And it's a frustrating situation because, I mean, as we've talked about neighbors before,
Starting point is 00:04:29 I remember asking this question. If he had stayed healthy all season and been good, let's just not say great, you know, to keep in a perspective. But now you have this new coach, this sophomore quarterback, this offensive environment that may not be the most past friendly, but still he's so good as a profile prospect. We're probably not even questioning taking him in round two and maybe talking about him as a round one pick. So I think if we get positive reports that he's healthy, it's worth the risk in round four, but I wouldn't take him before that. I don't think he's going to make it there.
Starting point is 00:05:12 Do you? Right now he's 49th. But if he comes off the Pupp list at some point in training camp, what do you think will happen in Malik neighbor's ADP? A full round higher. Or I'm sorry, a full 10 picks higher. it'll be in the three-four turn. Okay.
Starting point is 00:05:32 He went, he hung around in the 14-team draft I was in last night with other analysts. I'm trying to think he definitely did not go in the first three rounds. Of a 14-team league. That's three, that's a three-a-see really. All right. We'll keep an eye on it. Meanwhile, George Kittle, he could be ready for week one. That's what San Francisco fullback Kyle Eusechick said.
Starting point is 00:05:55 and ESPN's Jeremy Fowler thinks that Washington could be a destination for Stefan Diggs, which I think we said on yesterday's show, we'd like to see, he could be going there. But he also thought that right now it doesn't look like Washington is going to be bringing in Brandon Ayyuk. And Luca Evans of the Denver Post thinks that rookie running back Jonah Coleman could have a short yardage role. And that's not the first time that we have heard something like that about Jonah Coleman. All right, I think we should just get right into the wide receiver tiers. Here we go. Tier one.
Starting point is 00:06:25 for you. Jamie has three players and Heath has four players. And Heath, you talked about a little conundrum off the air with what to do about Tier 1, which I thought, you know, both, the Chase angle and the St. Brown angle were fascinating in that. But what were you thinking with Tier 1, because you have Chase, JSN, St. Brown, and Puka, whereas Jamie has just Chase, JSN and Puka and no St. Brown. So I know it's really bothered you when we've gone through these tiers and Jamie and I's tiers haven't really lined up very well. And so, like, what I've tried to do through this process is look where the gaps are in my projections.
Starting point is 00:07:02 And if I was doing that, I would have put Jamar Chase in his own tier. But I remember with the running backs, Jamie just kind of did the round one guys and then the round two guys. And so I thought, you know, I'll just do the top four all in one tier. And then I look at our tiers and we're still way off. And it didn't work. But, yeah, I guess the disagreement is whether a Munrae St. Brown belongs in tier one. My argument for yes is that he's been a top four wide receiver each of the last three years.
Starting point is 00:07:31 He's, I think, maybe the safest pick in round one. And we all have him as a top five or six pick in full PPR leagues, I believe. So he's a, if you're in one of the top six picks in a fantasy football draft, you should be in Tier 1. And Jamie, you do not have Amon-Ross, St. Brown groups with Chase, Puka, and JSN. I really struggled with it and almost thought that he's going to be in a tier by himself, just because I did it based on the rounds again. And I have these three picks as top five overall selections. Amar Rassay Brown is right behind those guys.
Starting point is 00:08:07 But I almost feel like he belongs a little bit closer to the Jefferson Lamb group. But he really should be like just by himself. He's amazing. St. Brown is. he's been top four overall three straight years as he said per game he's been
Starting point is 00:08:27 fourth, seventh, and fourth and the one season where he was wide receiver seven per game was I think you could say the one season where both James and Sam Leporto were healthy for most, if not all of it. So I guess that would be a slight knock
Starting point is 00:08:44 on Amon Ross St. Brown. I guess if you were going to look at if you were making a tier, what's that? What year do you have him seventh? per game, 2024. Okay, I've got them tied for fourth. Per game?
Starting point is 00:08:57 Yeah. Oh, question. Do you have Chris Godwin and Rishi Rice in there? Because they played three and seven or seven and three games respectively. Rishi Rice played four games. Oh, okay, so I have him on the three games, which because he played like.
Starting point is 00:09:13 So this is Azerstad at Munra St. Brown. If you count the guy who played four games, but we're going to pretend like he played three games, then Amunra St. Brown was actually, come on. He played like no snap. This is the worst use of Azer stats in the history. For one thing, I think there's a question whether we even include guys that played three
Starting point is 00:09:31 games. But when they actually played four, he didn't play, he didn't play. He didn't play four. I have to say the most fascinating thing that we do by far is the four of us with Dave included, and please make sure you continue to wish Dave, happy birthday. Yes. The four of us, we never have the same. same stats.
Starting point is 00:09:52 I know. They're all really close. We never have the same stats. Yeah, but here's this. So you have T. Higgins probably playing 11 games at your probably. I don't know. No, Rishie Rice played four snaps in week four.
Starting point is 00:10:06 Didn't have a target, didn't record a stat. Why would I hold that against him? If I want to get the true representation. Why would you hold that against him, Unrise St. St. Brown? In the games. In the games where.
Starting point is 00:10:17 We're arguing here. He's awesome. He's great. He's good. We got 75 receivers a cover and we're nitpicking on it. If I were going to ask. Your worst use of azure stats in the history of aeser stats. And we should ban them and you.
Starting point is 00:10:28 You're taking it against Alamana St. Brown. It's really about Rishie Rice. What? Did you get a booster seat? No, I didn't. You look a little taller today. That's because I'm feeling emboldened by what I've done with Rishers. Anyway, my question was, if your first tier was wide receivers that you think could be number one overall, who would you put in it?
Starting point is 00:10:52 These four guys? The three for me. What the hell, everyone? You would, like, if you agree with Heath, you agree with Heath that this is a bad, this is what AzerStats were made for. When a guy plays four snaps in a game, and that would be 25% of his season, you don't include that in his per game averages. If anyone thinks that you should, then you haven't been, then we're not friends.
Starting point is 00:11:20 All right, moving on to Tier 2. Tier 2 is still going to be wide receivers going in the, first round. For Jamie, it's St. Brown, C.D. Lamb, and Justin Jefferson. For Heath, it's not St. Brown, but it's Lamb, Jefferson, Drake, London, Rishi Rice, and George Pickens. So, Jamie, is this just the rest of your round one guys? Yes. Okay. So that's St. Brown, C.D. Lamb and Justin Jefferson. For Heath, St. Brown's already covered in Tier 1. Lamb and Jefferson are in this tier. Lamb at the top, Jefferson at the bottom. But you do have Drake London, Rishie Rice, and George Pickens. Are those round one caliber players for you?
Starting point is 00:11:55 These are 16 to 17 PPR fantasy point per game wide receivers for me. So, again, I'm kind of doing this by where the breaks and the projections are. And Justin Jefferson is just right at 16 fantasy points per game, I think, of my projections. 15.8, 15.9. Drake London is, you know, just a little bit over 17. Jamie, you have just Lamb in this tier, whereas Heath has lamb and Pickens in this tier. Pickens is in your next tier, Jamie, but I guess you see some separation between the two Cowboys receivers. Yeah, and a lot of it is based on hope, you know, because Pickens was better than him last year.
Starting point is 00:12:43 But the hope would be is that, you know, Lamb performs like he's capable of. And we saw it at the start of the season. And we had a lot of unlucky touchdown scenarios for Lamb last year because he did get more end zone targets than Pickens. But I struggle really with Lamb versus Jefferson. And what it comes down for me is the quarterback. If I had more faith in Kyler Murray, Justin Jefferson's resume is better than C.D. Lambs. And so I don't – I said this, you know, a lot of times the last couple of years. I feel like we're chasing the end of the 2023 season still for CD Lamb,
Starting point is 00:13:20 and he's been great. Don't get me wrong. But like that 10-game stretch has put him in a stratosphere that I don't think he's ever going to get back to, especially with pickings on the field. So Jefferson's town, like you put Jefferson on the Cowboys. You put Jefferson with any safe quarterback. I don't want to say competent, but like just safe quarterback. Like Jefferson's back in the top three.
Starting point is 00:13:43 He's just got that much potential, that much upside. So I'm hoping that the Kyler Murray, Kevin O'Connell combination is going to be enough to get Justin Jefferson back to at least the Carson Wendt's level that we saw last season, but even better than that. So I agree with Heath. I think 16 plus points per game is the range. But we know he's got 20 point potential still on any given season. He's still young enough and productive enough that if the quarterback play is good, he could be great. Okay. We're going to take a break.
Starting point is 00:14:13 I want to get Heath's take on Lamb versus Pickens. And I'll just tell you before we go to break, in the last 10 games, not including week 18, this is when CD Lamb came back, but excluding Week 18 where they played a half. CD Lamb was wide receiver seven overall in both half and full PPR, wide receiver 11 per game. No, I always do this. Pickens, I'm sorry. Pickens was wide receiver seven overall, 11th per game. Lamb was 13th per game and ninth overall.
Starting point is 00:14:44 So Pickens was a little bit better. He averaged 17 points per game. Lamb averaged 16.1 points per game. Lamb had a 26% target share, and Pickens had about a 24%, 24.2%. Lamb also dominated the end zone targets. He just couldn't catch touchdowns. It was weird.
Starting point is 00:15:03 But yeah, that's how it shook out. Pickens a little bit better than Lamb in those last 10 games. All right, we'll take a break and get Heath's take on those. two Cowboys receivers and more after this. Okay, Heath, you're up. C.D. Lamb and George Pickens in the same tier. Lamb ahead of him in the rankings, but same tier. Yeah, and Lamb in round one, Pickens in round two.
Starting point is 00:15:23 So if I was doing it that way, and I probably stretched the projections a little more in this tier to not have quite as small of tiers, which of course, then Jamie has the smaller tier, so it didn't work out to serve the purposes I wanted to. but I've got Lamb for about a point per game more than George Pickens. I think we'll see more targets for CD Lamb. I think we'll see that Pickens' targets will be worth more yards, and I would expect Pickens to score more touchdowns. Okay.
Starting point is 00:15:56 All right, let's go to the Tier 3 then. Bring it up. Tier 3 for Jamie. It's Rishie Rice, A.J. Brown, Drake London, Nico Collins, and George Pickens. For Heath, it's guys that I think you're going to see more in round three. Zay Flowers, Nico Collins, who's at the two, three turn in ADP, Chris Olavet, T. Higgins, and Devante Smith.
Starting point is 00:16:20 So again, Jamie's tier three is kind of like Heath's tier two. For Jamie, it's Rishirice, A.J. Brown, Drake, London, Nico Collins, George Pickens. And if you look at that group of five, well, we still don't have A.J. Brown for Heath. he's still not there yet with him. And Nico Collins is in Tier 3 for Jamie and Tier 3 for Heath, but does that mean that Nico is higher for Jamie? I know you're higher on AJ Brown than Heath is.
Starting point is 00:16:48 Are you higher on Nico Collins than Heath is? Do you know? I mean, I would have to say yes, because I would take him over Zay Flowers still. And for me, he's a round two pick. And I'll take more pickings. So obviously I'm higher. Yeah, I have Zay at 21, Nico at
Starting point is 00:17:05 22, Alave at 23, Higgins at 24, and Devante Smith at 25. So, like, this is the very end of round two for me. I told everybody, I think, yesterday to go check out the episode Gibbs and I did. Or it wasn't quite an episode because it was beyond the box score and it was only 20 minutes. But the player profile that we did on Zay Flowers, I just, I think he became an alpha number one wide receiver last year and nobody noticed. And, And Gibbs talked about how he and Dan have watched the film, and he's a number one wide receiver. I believe Matt Harmon had him top five against, or fantasy points and Matt Harmon both maybe, had him top five against both man and zone coverage.
Starting point is 00:17:49 The past totals last year for Lamar, they're always low, but they were about 15% lower than his career average. And I don't see anybody that's going to cut into that 30% target share for Zay. So I'm the high guy on Zay, but these are basically round two wide receivers for me. Yeah, when he was saying 21, 22, whatever, he was talking overall, not just the wide receiver rankings. Right. All right. Jamie, anything stand out to you in this, in tier three for you, Rice, A.J. Brown, Drake, Lennon, Necoe Collins, George Pickens. These are all guys that perfectly finds in round two, right?
Starting point is 00:18:26 Yeah, I mean, the outlier would probably be A.J. Brown. And so, you know, the hope would be going to New England. when he gets the opportunity to, you know, sort of take a step forward with Drake May. And I think we expect more past attempts in this offense from by comparison to what we saw last year, tougher schedule. Brown is coming off a disappointing season,
Starting point is 00:18:46 but he did have that stretch in the middle of the year where he was averaging over 19 ppr points per game. And if he does that, he's going to justify being selected in round two. So I wouldn't give up on AJ Brown. I wouldn't be afraid to take him in the second round. As you see, I moved him ahead of Drake London. That's a pretty big move, you know, knowing what London is.
Starting point is 00:19:02 is capable of doing in his offense as well and what he accomplished last year when he was healthy. But I think that the ceiling is a little bit higher for AJ Brown based on his resume and the situation that he's in for this year. And it's worth saying, like Jamie said, AJ Brown's the outlier. I think at this point in the industry, more people have AJ Brown where Jamie does than where I do. So I'm probably the guy that's too low on AJ Brown. And I'm trying to start to come around. I'm just not convinced that it's going to be a high-volume pass offense in New England, and I'm not convinced that it's going to be a super-concentrated share of targets in New England.
Starting point is 00:19:42 And I do think that, like A.J. Brown's health is a little bit of a concern. I think it will be pretty concentrated because it was when Stefan Dix was on the field. He just didn't play that. It's kind of a Josh McDaniel staple. Yeah, the hell thing is, I think, completely ignored by people. I don't know how many times I should say it because it's probably repetitive, but there was a report that the Rams were out on A.J. Brown because they were worried about his knee in terms of trading for him.
Starting point is 00:20:14 And that's why the Patriots didn't really, that's why the Eagles didn't really get that much in compensation for A.J. Brown. So I always wonder when you get stuff like that, which shouldn't be discounted, but I always wonder when you get stuff like that if it was free agency versus draft, because general managers hold on to their draft picks like they're their children. And so do they want to part with such huge assets? Think about Max Crosby, for example, you know, whether he was actually hurt or not. But like, if there is some concerns over injury, like they don't want to give up those future picks for players that may not help them long term.
Starting point is 00:20:46 Short term, if they were paying them because we know they can manipulate contracts and what they have to do, it's a little easier. I will say that the Rams are the one team that like an entire meme and T-shirts were sold based on their distaste. for their picks. Yeah, I mean, the report was from me, like giving them up. Jeff McLean of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The Rams were interested in A.J. Brown. They were not satisfied with his medicals.
Starting point is 00:21:09 So, um, I don't know. I, as someone who, if I were drafting right now, I probably would have A.J. Brown. He might be my most rostered player because I just, I think I'm so high on him. I, I, it's a risk. It's a risk. I'm hoping that it's more like, well, this sounds mean. But if he's got any, a knee issue,
Starting point is 00:21:28 that it's not something that's going to affect him this year, that it might be like something that worry about later in his career. Would you take A.J. Brown over London? If I had 10 drafts, I would take A.J. Brown over London six times. Okay. I hope that answers your question. Difficult call. All right.
Starting point is 00:21:48 Okay, let's go our next tier and see how many of Zayflowers, Olav. This is probably going to be, yeah. Jamie's got Olave, Higgins, Devante Smith, and Zay Flowers in this tier. That's exactly what Heath had. in his third tier, but Jamie has a mecca, a buca in this fourth tier. Heath also has a buca in his fourth tier, which means he's a little lower on a buca,
Starting point is 00:22:06 which we know. But Higgins, so when we look at Heath's third tier, Jamie's fourth tier, Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith, and Zay Flowers are in that group. Heath, do you consider those four? Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith, and Flowers,
Starting point is 00:22:23 closer to safe or risky? So I'd like to have a little bit more information on this blood clot situation for Chris Olavé. But if that's okay, then I would say probably closer to safe. Higgins has obviously had some injury concerns of his own. But closer to safe than risky. Higgins, Olave, Devante Smith. How about we go one by one? You guys both tell me.
Starting point is 00:22:55 T. Higgins, closer to safe or risky? Risky. Probably closer to risky, but it's just barely. Is that only because of injuries? Yes. Yes, entirely. Well, I guess, and Joe Burroughs health, too. Right.
Starting point is 00:23:11 You can argue when he's on the field, he's actually one of the safest players. Olave. It's funny because every concern last year was the concussions, and then he plays a full season, and it's like, oh, he must be safe again. I think you have to put him in the risky category because of what he said with the blood clots. Yeah. Yeah, but also in terms of performance for Olave, he does kind of remind, I think, a lot of people of 24, Terry McLaurin, where a lot of it was the same except you just scored more touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:23:47 And you write a lot of people. Do you remind a lot of people? I don't want to take credit for this. I feel like the comparison is very obvious, quite frankly. So I don't want to act like I think you're the one that makes it all the time. No, Heath does. Okay, fine. Honestly, man...
Starting point is 00:24:01 No, I definitely said that once. Okay. I don't remember all the things I've said. I was not trying to take credit for something that wasn't mine. But, yeah, I mean, he had 156 targets, turned into 1,163 yards. That's not great. Now they draft Jordan Tyson, you know. I think the difference between Olave and Terry McLauran, one,
Starting point is 00:24:25 Olave's younger, too. Olave's not threatening to hold out. But then the bigger difference is it was a full season for Terry McCloran with Jaden Daniels, right? Yeah. Like if you just look at what Chris O'Lave did with Tyler Shuck,
Starting point is 00:24:40 yeah. He was on pace for 106 catches, 1,365 yards, and 11 touchdowns in 17 games. But he also did it as a solo act. And if you look at the beginning part of the season, again, Tyler Shuck factoring into that, clearly because he wasn't the starter.
Starting point is 00:24:57 When Rashid Shaheed was on the team, Chris Olavé's numbers were dramatically different. They were. Unfortunately, we don't know if that's a Shaheed thing or that's a Rattler thing, right? Because it's kind of always a. I don't know if it's a target share thing because you go back to even the year before when it was quarterback issue still too. You know, Derek Carr, I believe it was still there.
Starting point is 00:25:18 And then Rattler took over. But you had Shaheed outperforming him. Yes. in that season before the concussions. And we know that Jordan Tyson as a prospect is much better than Rishit Sheet. Yeah, Alavi actually had a 26.4% target share with Shaheed, and then 27.1% after Shaheed was traded. So not a big jump there.
Starting point is 00:25:39 Just the quarterback change was different. All right, let's go to Devante Smith, risky or safe? Closer to risky or closer to safe? Safe. Safe. Safe Flowers. Safe. Safe. And this is where I will remind people that Zay Flowers basically had the same amount of targets per game, two straight seasons. But that was the difference of being a wide receiver 12 per game last year.
Starting point is 00:26:07 And I don't even think he was top 30 the year before. So that's kind of weird, isn't it? It was 36th per game. Yeah, I think it's also kind of a weird way to frame it because he had the same number of targets on 60 fewer pass attempts for his team. And he was much better on those targets. Yes, he was. All right.
Starting point is 00:26:31 And then Emeka, Bucca is in Jamie's Tier 3, Heath's Tier 4. If we look at Heath's Tier 4, AJ Brown is in this tier. We talked about him, but you have neighbors, you have Burden, you have a Bucca, you have McMillan, and you have A.J. Brown. And I think what's fascinating is I feel like these five wide receivers
Starting point is 00:26:50 are mostly different. different in terms of their profiles. Neighbors, Bird and Abuka, Macmillan, and A.J. Brown, do you feel that way? Do you think they're similar? I mean, I think Bird and Abuka and McMillan are united by the second year wide receiver thing. We're hoping they are the clear number one wide receivers on their team. We think there's enormous upside, but there is some risk. Neighbors kind of falls into this tier for me because I don't want to be too high on him,
Starting point is 00:27:18 and Brown's kind of in this tier because I don't want to be too low on him. Yeah. And I guess I still am. So obviously, neighbors and Brown are just different, but especially neighbors. He's just, you know, could be in his own tier. Although maybe neighbors and Brown are united by the fact that we have questions about their knee. Sure. All right.
Starting point is 00:27:37 Maybe they're not as different as I thought. But when you look at Burden, Abuka and McMillan, how do you decide between the three of them? Who's your favorite? Burden Abuka, McMillan. Burden for me. Jamie? Abuka. Right.
Starting point is 00:27:51 That makes sense since he's in. this tier for you by himself. Why burden, Heath? Because I think the combination of DJ Moore leaving and having Ben Johnson is an offensive coordinator and Burden's ability to make huge plays gives him more upside. Why Abuka, Jamie? I mean, you look at the first four games of last season
Starting point is 00:28:17 and now Mike Evans is gone. And so, you know, Baker talking about his health, hopefully he's healthy. You mentioned yesterday, the offensive line and their health. Zach Robinson was able to get, as the new offense coordinator, a very quality campaign out of Drake London, and Abuka may be a more explosive player than Drake. I don't think maybe he is a more explosive player than Drake London. Hopefully it'll be more productive than London. That's hard to ask in his second year, but the potential's there. So, you know, you take a Hall of Famer off the field, and I think Abuka hopefully playing a little bit of a more well-rounded role. there's a chance for him to be an absolute superstar.
Starting point is 00:28:56 Why McMillan, random person who would pick McMillan? I don't know. I wouldn't pick McMillan, but I guess my argument would be he is the clear number one guy on his team. Is he? Yes. I know that, okay, yes. If Jalen Coker is going to out-target him,
Starting point is 00:29:15 and yeah, he really struggled down the stretch McMillan because Coker was coming on, then we got a real problem. problem here. But I don't see that happening again, quite honestly. I kind of look at it as Rashid Shaheed Chris Olave. Like in that small sample size in 2024, Shaheed was better than Olave. Olave, again, 26.4% target share with Shaheed last year. So I think McMillan will, will, you know, be the clear number one guy, whereas I don't know that's the case for a Mecca, Abuka, and Burden. But for the record, I would not take McMillan over Abuka.
Starting point is 00:29:47 I don't know about him versus Burden. Super tough call. Probably, probably not. But, Yeah, what do you think, Jamie? He makes me very nervous. I mean, it's not just Jalen Koker, it's now Brazel, you know, being there. It's a team that despite what may be a lack of talent in the backfield is going to want to run the ball a lot. That's Dave Canales' track record. I know he's not calling the plays anymore, but it's still his offense. And you have the Bryce Young problem.
Starting point is 00:30:12 You know, and so is Bryce Young, does he have the ability to elevate his number one receiver to the fantasy heights that I'm I think a lot of people hope Tedroa and McMillan can get to. So I think he's, this is the range for him. I don't see him going past round four. I don't think that you can necessarily make strong enough pro-con arguments for the guys in Keith's tier that he shouldn't be ahead of some of those behind a couple of them. You see he's not in this tier for me. He's in the next group. Same thing with that list.
Starting point is 00:30:45 You know, you can make strong arguments for it against some of the guys around him. I just think, and I've said this before, like what you got from him last year, I think is somewhat. replicable. You know, you're going to get right around 1,000 yards receiving, and you get 8 to 10 touchdowns. You're going to get a healthy enough target share that you'll like it, but you won't love it. You'll be asking for more. You'll see him do things. You know, you'll say this a lot at him.
Starting point is 00:31:04 You watch him play football. He looks really good. Yeah. The numbers just won't back it up, I think, unfortunately, because the team he's on. The Gary Wilson effects. Jamie goes, Abuka McMillan, Burden. Heath goes, Burden, Abuka, McMillan. Next tier,
Starting point is 00:31:20 please. to tier five. All right. So here we have McMillan. We have Borden in here for Jamie. We also have Ladd-McConkey, Terry McLoran,
Starting point is 00:31:29 and Garrett Wilson. McMillan, McCon, McLaren, Luther Burden, Garrett Wilson. This is Tier 5 for Jamie. These tiers match up a little bit. Yeah, I love it.
Starting point is 00:31:38 Yeah. I love it. We have McLaren, McConkey, and Garrett Wilson in here. For Heath as well, we don't have Burden and McMillan,
Starting point is 00:31:49 right? Because they were in the previous tier. Right. But the three in common are Ladd-McConkie, Terry McLaurin, and Garrett Wilson. Now, Heath has four more guys that he's grouping with them. DJ Moore, Jalen Waddle, Devante Adams, and James and James and James and Williams. DJ Moore, Jalen, Waddle, Devante Adams, and James and James and Williams in a seven-receiver tier with McLaren, McConkey, and Garrett Wilson.
Starting point is 00:32:11 Jamie, what is it about McLaren, McConkey, and Garrett Wilson that separates them from DJ Moore, Jalen, Waddle, Devante Adams, and James, and Williams? I think just a little bit more upside. Mconkey, as we've kind of heard from the reports in Los Angeles and the hope of Mike McDaniel being there and Justin Herbert being healthy, what we saw in his rookie campaign, I think there's an opportunity for him to get back to producing that level, especially if they don't do what still might happen and resign Keenan Alex. I think that was a problem for Mocki last year.
Starting point is 00:32:42 McClorin, you mentioned it, Stefan Diggs. I think there's going to be another past catcher joining the team prior to week one, whoever that may be, because they're obviously knocking on. doors, whether it was Brandon Ayuk or Diggs or somebody else, you know, some, something will potentially happen. Could be another tight end, could be Zach Kurt's coming back. You know, there just feels like there's another pass catcher coming to Washington. So that may lower his ceiling a little bit, but my God, what we saw in 2024 with Jaden Daniels when there was no holdout and you look at the rest of this receiving core, like, I don't think he leads the NFL on targets, but if they decide to
Starting point is 00:33:16 be this very pass-happy friendly team, like Terry McLaurin's going to be up there. Certainly targets per game if he stays healthy. And then for Garrett Wilson, you know, it's, did you ask about Wilson? I'm sorry? Yeah, yeah, McLaurin, Mconkey, and Wilson being ahead of- A tough one for me because you see the talent, you know what he's capable of producing like, and I do think Gino Smith is going to help him to what level we'll find out. But then you've got to factor in, like they just added two high-profile pass catchers
Starting point is 00:33:45 in Kenyon, Sadiq and Omar Cooper. They like Adnanai Mitchell for what that's worth. Like, is there enough targets in this offense for Garrett Wilson to get to the place he needs to get to? So that's my concern with him. It's not really a talent thing. You know, hopefully he stays healthy. We saw it last year averaging over 19 ppr points per game when he was on the field. But it's just a matter of is there enough opportunities for him to get those chances.
Starting point is 00:34:08 So the later he is, the more excited I get about him. But when I see him going round three, I just can't buy into it. This is kind of the 12 to 13 fantasy point per game range for me. And I should say, based on my current projections, who's on the team, Terry McLaurin would have been in the tier above, which maybe would match up better with where Jamie has him with Tederoa and Luther Burton. Because I do have him projected for more points right now. I'm just really scared that Stefan Diggs or Keenan Allen's going to show up and kind of move him back down into this tier. I think DJ Moore and J. Lawdle are kind of the same thing. Like we're, we've seen these guys look awesome before.
Starting point is 00:34:52 They are going to, in theory, better situations, definitely better quarterbacks than they had last year. And we're hoping that they can be the, like, there's a chance either one of these guys could be the clear number one wide receiver. And if they are, then I'm too low on them in this tier. But also they, I'm kind of afraid they won't be. And that Jalen Waddle and Cortland Sutton just both have like 115 targets because, Sean Payton likes to throw it to 17 guys and the same thing with Brady. So I think Moore and Waddle are probably the two for me that I really just don't know. And so I've kind of settled on this 12 and a half point range.
Starting point is 00:35:32 Waddle averaged 13.4 points per game from weeks 5 through 15 without Tyreek Hill and with Tuat Tsunglewa, but he just had no target competition. And honestly, I was a little disappointed in 13.4 PPR points per game, but they were so run heavy. They average 27 pass attempts per game, or at least two it did in that stretch. He's the one guy that just, I struggle with so much, or one of the guys I struggle
Starting point is 00:35:57 with so much, just because we're supposed to get excited about players when they join new teams, right? When these receivers get these compensation and you look at the track record for the majority of them, you know, D.K. McHaff, maybe the outlier. I don't know if I'm missing somebody, but these guys go to these new teams, and
Starting point is 00:36:13 Bo Nix has been a good fantasy quarterback, and Sean Payton's system has been good. But despite the fact that they threw the ball 613 times last year, which was top five in the NFL, the guy that was second in targets had 104. And so, like, does that just completely change? And it's just so concentrated to waddle. And then I'm expecting, I think most people are, that Cortland Sutton just goes from the number one to the number two. And he's been living in that 130 target range in the two years with Bo Nix. But it's just so hard to expect because there was a report.
Starting point is 00:36:49 I don't know if you referenced this in the last couple of days, Adam, but there was a report, I think it was on the Broncos website of Evan Ingram looks really good, and he's going to benefit from the attention going to Waddle and to Sutton. And there's still Pat Bryant and there's still Troy Franklin, and they're still this and they're still that. And they have all three running backs that they're going to use.
Starting point is 00:37:08 Like, it's just not enough. It's not enough. You know, so like you'll see in the next tier, I agree with Heath. Like DJ Moore for me is, I think, a better fan. fantasy prospect this season, then Jalen Waddle, because he should get so many target opportunities. If they throw the ball enough. I just got to say, I really like not everyone on this list here.
Starting point is 00:37:31 For Jamie, it's McMillan, McConkey, McLaren, Burden, Garrett Wilson. For Heath, it's McLaren, McConkey, Wilson, DJ Moore, Waddle, Adams, James and Williamson. I like most of them. I want to be in this tier. I want to draft a wide receiver in this tier. And I'm sure I'm going to, you know, I like all the first four tiers, I'm sure, but I feel like I'm going to like these guys more than the running backs in this range, quite frankly.
Starting point is 00:37:54 And I still think we're looking at players who have top 12 potential. You know, that's kind of how I look at this tier. I don't think James and Williams does, especially in full PPR. But I don't really think Jalen Waddle does because of the target stuff. But I really think everyone else on this list, McLauran, McMillan, McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Luther Burden, DJ Moore, Devante Adams. I really think every single one of them has top 12 potential. I mean, I know you always like to say like that's the place they need to get to for you to want them.
Starting point is 00:38:31 Well, at least that's the way you lean. Not necessarily, but I like it. These are guys that we're talking about now that are in the late teens, early 20s. Like if they return there, you know, you get to return on investment that you're drafting them, especially if, you know, from the way you're describing it would be you want to go running back, running back essentially or running back in your first two running backs your first three picks. Like you can get away with that this year easily if you love these guys. And if they're top 15 receivers, not necessarily top 12, but you're running back set, you're going to be great. Actually,
Starting point is 00:38:59 I think it's super important based on the way wide receiver's been. Certainly last year, I don't know if it's going to repeat, but I think it's super important to have an elite wide receiver. I would be upset if this was my first wide receiver. But I definitely want to get one of these guys as my wide receiver two and maybe come back with my wide receiver three. If I could go like four or five. If you let's go, I'm trying to think how it will work ADP. If you start with St. Brown and then come back and get Hampton and Hampton and Kiron Williams. So you go St. Brown, Hampton, Kiron, receiver, receiver with two of these guys being the next two.
Starting point is 00:39:40 Yeah, I like that. Yep. I wouldn't even be I wouldn't even be upset if I threw in like a Lamar Jackson in there or something like that and just had one of these receivers
Starting point is 00:39:52 But we all know you're going to take Joe Burrow Anyway, I guess As we try to label these tiers We still have a lot of upside At least according to me Didn't sound like you guys were disagreeing In this tier.
Starting point is 00:40:05 Let's take a break And get to tier six And see how many we can get to Hopefully at least eight We'll be right back Maybe I'm running a little bit of a risk here asking this question from the chat of getting off subject, but I do think it's relevant based on the conversation we just had from Scott. What is your lean in the first round running back or wide receiver? And my answer would always be best player available.
Starting point is 00:40:30 I do not have a lien. But what about you guys? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. You're going to find good players at the position. Just take the best player. Maybe it depends on where you're picking in round one.
Starting point is 00:40:41 I don't know if you find that maybe the wide receivers or running backs at the two, three turn are better. I think wide receiver a little bit, but not enough. I mean, look, you got to know your league. You got to know what your, you know, if you can, you know, what the majority of the trends may be for the teams in your league. But I think if you start to just study ADP a little bit and get an idea of the players in those ranges, which is why, you know, Dave just posted his tears last week. I'm in the middle of posting mine this week. I think Heathster next week.
Starting point is 00:41:13 You get an idea of what you can see, and we're talking about it here on the show as well. You get an idea of where the ranges are of players. So, you know, if you have an early pick in round one, do you really want to pass on Chase, Puka, JSN, St. Brown, you know, those four guys to take one of Gibbs or Bejan,
Starting point is 00:41:36 knowing that when you get to that two-three turn, like the running backs may be a little bit better than the receivers that are still on the board. So it all comes down to, I think, what you're looking at if you're building it out in your head. But if you go on with the idea of outside of the first four or five picks knowing that that's the range of guys, like if you're at the back end around one and you say, I'm taking this guy, he may not be there. You're going to screw yourself over. That's true.
Starting point is 00:41:57 We have a very strong agreement on the top seven picks and even kind of the order. Like the first two picks for everybody are running backs. The next four picks for Jamie and I are why. wide receivers. Dave messes that up because he has Jonathan Taylor just ahead of Amunrah St. Brown. Brown at seven. So like we kind of have a pretty, like the first half, it's pretty easy to just say if the two running backs are there, I'm going to take him. If they're not, I'm going to take one of the four wide receivers. The back half of round one is a complete crap shoot in terms of running back versus wide receiver. And you have to make that decision
Starting point is 00:42:33 about Christian McCaffrey at some point. For the record, I don't think I would have the same number two pick as you guys. You'd put Chase over Bijan? I would. I think it's just like, these guys are all so elite that the only thing I can really see torpedoing it other than injuries
Starting point is 00:42:49 would be the Falcons offense is so bad and they're just bouncing back between quarterbacks and really struggling. I don't think that's going to happen, but I just don't think I can take a falcons guy over a Bengals guy. Whatever. So I guess again, looking at the build,
Starting point is 00:43:04 do you prefer Chase and Derek Henry or well you will never take Derek Henry Chase and Ken Walker let's say or
Starting point is 00:43:16 Bejan and see Jamie here's where here's where it gets tough because AJ Brown yeah they
Starting point is 00:43:25 based on average draft position AJ Brown's going 19th so let's say we can't get him but Nico Collins George Pickens and Rishi Rice
Starting point is 00:43:35 are all available at the two three turn and I like them all better than Derek Henry, I think. But I still don't think that would influence my pick. I'm just going to take the guy that I like better in the first round. And if I have to take two wide receivers
Starting point is 00:43:47 with my first two picks, then so be it. No, that's the way you should draft it. Obviously, you know, you shouldn't let the rest of the draft dictate what you're going to do in the first pick. But it's clearly something you can take into account of here's the range of guys that are coming next and how do you want to pair them together. I do think you're going to get really uncomfortable
Starting point is 00:44:03 in round three if you do that. Because there's a pretty big, gap after that Ken Walker group. Yeah. And you're like you're probably then staring down the barrel of do I want to start three wide receivers or do I want to start two wide receivers and Bowers and Mark Bride if one of them still there? And now you're looking at late round four before you get a running back. And if I do that, what are we looking at at 48th overall at running back? We're looking at David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Trevion, Judkins.
Starting point is 00:44:36 Bejel Tootin, Bucky Irving. I mean, if you get Judkins there, I'd feel, and I took Swift in round four of the 14 team league. Yeah. It's not a typical me team. Right. All right, let's go to Tier 6 now at Wide Receiver. And we are looking at Malik Neighbors.
Starting point is 00:44:55 Yeah. Oh, man. Malik Neighbors for Jamie. DJ Moore. Basically for Jamie, it's Malik Neighbors and the rest of Tier 5 for Heath here in Tier 6. Jay Moore, Jalen Waddle, Mike Evans, Devante Adams. Not Evans, though. Evans is
Starting point is 00:45:10 Evans is in tier six. Heath's lower on Evans. But the guys we just talked about basically, Neighbors, Moore, Waddle, Adams, and then Evans, who's a new name. And Heath has... Welcome to your wide receiver threes. 15 receivers here? I don't even know. We got Metcalf. We've got both Jaguar,
Starting point is 00:45:31 two of the Jaguars guys, Thomas and Parker, Washington. We got O'Doonese. We got Marvin Harrison Jr., Christian Watson, Jordan Tyson, Cortland Sutton, Alec Pierce and Quentin Johnston, Carnell Tate and Josh Downs, Jordan Addison, Jacobi, oh, we do have all three Jaguars.
Starting point is 00:45:48 Jordan Addison, Jacobi Myers, and Mike Evans. So obviously, when you're looking at this, I think a lot of people are going to go, Mike Evans. Megatier! Mike Evans at the bottom of the Megatier. So we could talk about him separately. But Heath, what point are you making here with this Megatier?
Starting point is 00:46:06 We used to talk about the blob of wide receivers that was like wide receiver 20 to wide receiver 37 or whatever. This is the blob, except it starts a little bit later than it did in the past. Like literally, I think all of these guys are within 1.2 points per game in my projections. So don't care about the order. These are your wide receiver threes. And that would be Metcalf. You can choose floor, you can choose upside. You can choose old, you can choose young.
Starting point is 00:46:38 You can choose slot guys. You can choose 16 yard A dots. Whatever you want, there's something for you. Here are your wide receiver threes. This is Heats golden corral. Yes. So what do you choose? What are you typically, you know, in terms of profile,
Starting point is 00:46:55 slot guys, old guys, whatever, like, what do you typically lean toward? I think it depends on whether you've started, as we were just talking with a couple of wide receivers early. and then those guys like Alec Pierce, Quentin Johnston, kind of the even Marvin Harrison Jr., Christian Watson, the quintessential boom-bust wide receiver three that's going to win you six weeks a year, that's great. If you started with a couple running backs early
Starting point is 00:47:18 and you need some security, then you take the guys that are a little bit safer. I'm going to read their names again. Metcalfe, every Jaguar, O'Dunesay, Marvin Harrison, Christian Watson, Jordan Tyson, Cortland Sutton, Alec Pierce, Quentin Johnston, Carnell Tate, Josh Downs,
Starting point is 00:47:37 Jordan Addison, Mike Evans. Obviously, if I asked Jamie, who are you going to lean toward? I know he's going to say Mike Evans, because he has Evans a tier ahead of this. Well, same tier numerically for you guys, but for all intents and purposes ahead of this. We just did round seven through nine wide receivers.
Starting point is 00:47:54 So Jamie would probably say, throw Chris Godwin on there. I want him. But who are some of the names that jump out to you that you would find yourself favoring, Jamie? in Heath's Megatier? Yeah. So I would get a plate and I'd probably go with Watson first.
Starting point is 00:48:10 Oh, Dunezai first, sorry. O'Donzei, then Watson, then probably the Jaguars guys of Washington and Thomas in that order. Then Josh Downs. I'm sorry, then Alex Pierce Josh Downs, those two guys. But yeah, Evans will be first. This morning was Parker, Washington morning for me.
Starting point is 00:48:33 It said a lot of research on Parker Washington, but not just that, but just try to find some comps. Thomas, can you throw up the graphic that you, I throw this, these numbers at him half hour before the show and he comes up with this amazing graphic. Wow. So these are players from 2024. And I looked at weeks 12 through 18 because that was Parker Washington's, you know, boom season.
Starting point is 00:48:57 He actually missed week 14 and he barely played in two of the games there. and he's still amazing. But here are some players who finish strong, weeks 12 through 18 of 2024, had an ADP boost in 2025, and how do they do the next year? Brian Thomas Jr., horrible bust. Jerry Judy, even bigger bust.
Starting point is 00:49:18 Ladd McConkey, bust. Marvin Mims actually averaged 15.8 points per game. He didn't really have that big of an ADP boost. Nobody cared. He was 152nd. But he was a bust. Cortland Sutton, originally I put him as a bust,
Starting point is 00:49:30 but I would say, I guess I'd call him a fine pick. He had a big finish. So did Bo Nix in 2024. He was 53rd overall. He was like wide receiver 22 or something, and he finished basically right around there. So we'll call him a fine pick. And then there was JSN.
Starting point is 00:49:43 And that's the prize here. Jack and Smith of Nijigba averaged 15 points per game from weeks 12 to 18 of 2024. And he had an MVP caliber season. Then I went back, but most of them were busts. And then I went back and I looked at the same stuff from 2023. We don't have a graphic on that.
Starting point is 00:50:03 But again, most of those guys who finished strong in 2020 were busts. You had C.D. Lamb, right? Jamie says we've been chasing that stretch for C.D. Lamb. Well, he finished his wide receiver 9 per game, and he was drafted as wide receiver 1. You had Christian Watson, who averaged 24 points per game in weeks 12 through 18 of 2023, and he was wide receiver 83 per game. Rishie Rice, though, was the J. of the group, even though he only played, in my opinion, three games.
Starting point is 00:50:33 He was obviously a great pick. He parlayed a terrific finish to 2023 into big production. You had Zay Flowers, who was a bust after a strong finish to his rookie year. And you had Jaden Reed, who was a bust. I would say a slight bust after a strong finish to his rookie year. And I know I threw a lot of names out there. I guess my point is I am going to be wary of guys who just did it in a small sample size.
Starting point is 00:50:59 And yes, that means we all missed on Amon Rae St. Brown after his rookie year. And I probably missed on Rishi Rice after his rookie year. But Parker Washington was in his third year when he had this big outbreak. And he was so good. And then he backed it up in the playoffs with an amazing game. Can I give you two names that might matter? Yeah. Wondell Robinson and Chris Godwin.
Starting point is 00:51:27 In what regard? The slot receivers for Liam Cohen. Wondale Robinson was a slot. Oh, in college? In Kentucky. Oh, that stuff doesn't really matter to me in college. Yeah, he also was like a deep threat in college. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:51:46 But no, it matters to some people. I didn't mean to dismiss it. I mean, look, there's, my biggest issue with Parker Washington is, how are they going to get all these guys in the football? Yep. You know, so it's great to love him. it's understandable to love him. It's understandable to want to bounce back for Brian Thomas.
Starting point is 00:52:04 It's understandable to want Jacoby Myers to still do what he's done. It's understandable to want to see Travis Hunter play on offense and be successful. It's understandable to want to see Brent Strange play like he did at times last year and justify the contract. How do they do it? Well, this is why I love Trevor Lawrence because I think there's an opportunity for him to just thrive with all these guys, especially with a suspect run game. But somebody's going to disappoint here. two guys are probably going to disappoint here. Maybe three guys are going to disappoint here,
Starting point is 00:52:31 especially depending on how quickly you draft their, how soon you draft them. So I think the Parker Washington excitement level is justified if he's drafted in the right range. If you're taking him ahead of, like I think a lot of the names that Heath has here, like I would prefer, I do prefer Romo Dunes at Christian Watson. I think there's a higher ceiling for those guys.
Starting point is 00:52:53 But I understand where Parker Washington is. I know Dave was very excited about Parker Washington. For example, I think a lot of people in the industry are excited about Parker Washington. Washington. But it's, again, four guys need the football. And I go back to they reached for Travis Hunter and to just completely dismiss him is, I think, a little bit of a mistake. They traded for Jacoby Myers. I don't think he's going to disappear. We know what Brian Thomas can do. We know what he's capable of. And whether he's the sacrificial X or just a deep threat or whatever the case may be,
Starting point is 00:53:27 he's going to get opportunities too. So it's like how good can Parker Washington be? Because a lot of what he did last year was no Travis Hunter and a very different Brian Thomas. Yeah, an injured one. But the best, that was the bad stuff, I guess, for Parker Washington from what I said. That's not how I necessarily feel about him because, you know, I mentioned weeks 12 through 18.
Starting point is 00:53:50 If we get rid of week 12 is Brian Thomas Stewart didn't play. We look at weeks 13 through 18. When Parker Washington was on the field, he had a 31.5% target share. So really impressive stuff. What would you guess his snap share is this year? 80% of the routes. Parker Washington?
Starting point is 00:54:09 Not the snaps, but the routes. You think that's too high? I think it's probably too high. Then either he's good enough to justify that, right? Like he's a good enough player where they need to keep him on the field. Or if not, then I don't think he should be taken in round six or seven. I mean, they extended Brenton Strange and drafted two tight ends also and are talking about playing more two tight-in sets.
Starting point is 00:54:31 You're right. You're probably right. That makes me nervous. Let me see Parker at Washington's ADP. 66. That's mid-round six. I mean, look, if you read the reports out of Jacksonville and go based on what we saw last year,
Starting point is 00:54:50 I think the two guys that should make you nervous for how they impact everybody else, even their individual performances is Jacoby Myers and Travis Hunter. Because I think what Brian Thomas does changes their offense, whether he's good or not, but he just obviously is such a threat to the defense. And Parker Washington just feels like that's the safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence and Liam Call. But that's the thing. He's actually, his ADOT was 12.5 yards.
Starting point is 00:55:20 He's not, he's an different, and he's not an exclusive slot guy either. 44% slot rate. It's not like a 70% slot guy or anything. So now you have everybody healthy. He's a different cat. Yeah, I don't know who he is. We don't know yet. And sorry, we just spent so much on Parker Washington.
Starting point is 00:55:36 There's a lot of guys on this list. There's no way we can talk about all of them. It might be better just to go to Tier 7 and talk about which guys for Jamie are in this tier, like to try to separate them a little bit. Before we do that, we talked about how the last tier was full of, was a lot of guys that might have top 12 potential. Do you think anyone in this tier has top top? top 12 potential. Yeah. Who?
Starting point is 00:55:59 I mean, Brian Thomas Jr. has already done it. Yeah. Who, anyone else? I think Marvin Harrison still could. Roma Dunes,
Starting point is 00:56:08 we could all be dumb and Roma Dunes they could be the best past catcher on the Bears. Okay. But most of the guys, like maybe Alec Pierce, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:56:18 Well, Heath, is your concern about Evans' health or performance? A little of both, but more. more help. I forgot about Evans. Yeah, I think you got to throw him in that conversation.
Starting point is 00:56:30 Yeah, I mean, look, obviously got to be concerned about Evan's health. I think if we were guaranteed a certain amount of games for him would determine how high he would be ranked if he was going to play the majority of the season. But he just got, you know, a nine touchdown season out of Joanne Jennings in this offense. Yeah. Like, he could be this year's Devante Adams. Let's see. And I think you probably have to say Christian Watson. Yep.
Starting point is 00:56:53 Like if everything goes right. My thing about Watson is like, I don't know if he'll have enough catches in PPR, but in the other formats, you know. I don't have it in front of me, but I'm sure you guys have different stats on this. Where did Watson finish points per game last year? He was 19th. 13th and non, 17th and half, 19th in full. So this is a Watson comment and a Malik neighbor's comment. Watson did that coming off a torn ACL and in an offense that didn't throw the ball very much.
Starting point is 00:57:23 And neighbors coming off a torn ACL. in an offense they may not throw very much. And Malik Neighbors is a much better prospect than Christian Watson. So hopefully we get that type of season from neighbors. Again, hard to count on that because of where he's at with his health. Watson was in a seemingly better spot. But no Dante Wicks. More importantly, no Romeo Dobbs.
Starting point is 00:57:41 This could be the runway is clear for Christian Watson and Jane Reed and Matthew Golden. But Watson is the most likely alpha. Like he could have a bigger. All right, Tier 7 at long last. By the way, listen to the wide receiver 7 through 9 podcast from last week should be helpful. For Jamie, it's Christian Watson, Romo Dunzee, James, and Marvin Harrison, Jr. So many ways I want to go about this show, but Jameson Williams, I think, feel like Heath higher on him than Jamie. Let me just check on that.
Starting point is 00:58:14 I think I'm probably higher on the Lions total pass attempts than anybody this year. So Jamie's got him 29th, Jamo, and Heath has him 25th. Dave has him 34th. All right, but Heath's Tier 7 is Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy. The NFL. What's that? Yeah, the rest of football. Chris Godwin, Xavier Worthy.
Starting point is 00:58:36 I don't know why Xavier Worthy wasn't on the graphic that I gave to the notes that I gave to Thomas. He probably was a guy who had a strong finish, was pushed up in ADP and was a bust. Michael Pittman, Khalil Shakir, Trey Tucker, Michael Wilson. Mackay Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, and Ricky Pearsall. Godwin, Worthy, Pitman, Shakir, Tucker, Michael Wilson, Mackay Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, Ricky Pearsall. Worthy wasn't on the list because his strong finish was a lot of playoffs, and he played one snap in week 18.
Starting point is 00:59:16 Right, right, right. Which, of course, you know, the Azer stat, if you don't count week 18, but you do count the playoff games, then you could definitely put it on the list. Right. You, of course, would count one snap in week 18. It makes fix very much sense. Jamie, what do you think about this tier? What does this tier represent?
Starting point is 00:59:33 Godwin, worthy, Pittman, Shakir, Trey Tucker, Michael Wilson, Lemon, Antonio Williams, Romeo Dobbs, Ricky Pearson. I mean, it represents a lot, obviously. I'm curious on some of the rankings. So, Shakir, ahead of Pearsall. Godwin is low. is just tears. The order doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:59:57 Yeah, but even behind some of the guys in the other tier. Yeah. I think for Godwin, it's like all the concerns that I have about Mike Evans and health, and is he still the same guy? And if he's number two for Baker Mayfield, who is Baker Mayfield? And like, I'm just down on the buck's offense. Yeah, I was going to say, I always like when Heath comes at it and is consistent, because most people in our industry are not consistent.
Starting point is 01:00:20 Heath is certainly not that. He's very consistent. when he has his slants on a team, he is very across the board with it. So no love for Baker, no love, doesn't really buy the Bucca breakout, I think to most people's level,
Starting point is 01:00:34 very down on Godwin. It's interesting. I do find it curious, though, that you're of such a Brock Purdy guy and out on Evans and Pierceell. Yeah. Well, he's got George Kittle and Christian McAfry. It's true.
Starting point is 01:00:48 Antonio Williams being on here might. You know what? I'll just say this. When I look at Godwin, when I look at Worthy, Lemon, and Pierceall, those are the guys that I think, if things go right, they could really outperform this tier. Godwin Worthy, McCoy Lemon, and Ricky Pearsall. I'm not sure I see that for anyone else. I think just in the, and it's, it's tough to say Michael Pittman, but if you look at last year when Daniel Jones was healthy,
Starting point is 01:01:27 first nine games of the season, he was averaging over 16 PPR points per game. He was better for a longer, yeah, he was better for a longer stretch than Parker Washington. Yeah, and a lot of that obviously was Daniel Jones healthy. He broke his leg in week 10. So the first nine games of the season, Pittman was a pretty solid fantasy option.
Starting point is 01:01:46 and then now you go to this offense that may throw the ball a little bit more with Mike McCarthy, may throw the ball down the field a little bit more with Mike McCarthy. But that doesn't speak to what a 42-year-old Aaron Rogers probably wants to do. And so I struggle right now with Pittman versus D.K. McAfin, who's better? Right now, I'd still take McAf because I think there's more upside. But wouldn't shock me if Pittman has a better fantasy season. You shouldn't struggle with this. And I want to clarify, too.
Starting point is 01:02:16 the reason I said rankings don't matter is this is not I didn't I just put these in the order of where they come out in the projections I move guys if I think they have more upside McCoyleman's higher than most of the guys in this tier um because I do I agree with you I do think he has more upside I think the other guy you left out at him like you said if everything goes right these guys are in the wrong tier I think after like we just spent so much time on Parker Washington after what we saw from Michael Wilson last year who also did it when somebody wasn't healthy like Parker Washington um that Like, if everything goes right for Michael Wilson, he doesn't belong in this tier. What does that mean to you, though, if everything goes right? Because I did not mean if other guys get hurt. If he's, well, if the tight end targets for Trey McBride go down, if Michael Wilson's just better for Marvin Harrison than Marvin Harrison, Jr., because Marvin Harrison Jr., because Marvin Harrison Jr. is never as good as Michael was during that stretch. Right. Did you see this photo of Michael of Marvin Harrison last week? No.
Starting point is 01:03:14 No. Oh, look, quickly. Is he like really big or something? He's massive. Oh, gosh. In a positive or negative way? Well, I mean, look, I would like to look like that. He looks like the Hulk.
Starting point is 01:03:27 Okay. I don't know where the picture. Oh, oh, at the press conference. Oh, wow. Yeah, he is a big dude. At the press conference. No, he's standing shirtless on a field. Well, it's also him.
Starting point is 01:03:41 Maybe this was last year. He was big last year. Can I ask a question, Adam? When was the last time you stood shirtless in public? Um, years ago. Like, well, I go swimming in a shirt. So this is going to sound funny. But Adam and I once we were, I think you were there, Heath.
Starting point is 01:04:03 I'm pretty sure Dave was at the event we did in New England. No, I didn't do an event in New England. So I think it was you three. And we had to put on full of shirts. Yeah. So Adam and I had to go on to change. And I saw Adam shirtless. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:21 Still horrified. Do you want to see a really disgusting bruise on my arm? Of course. Yeah. What do you think about this? Wow. Dan did that too? I got hit by a softball right in his shoulder.
Starting point is 01:04:36 You cried, didn't you? I was thankful to be alive. The ball could hit me in the head and it was screaming. It was... No, no. Were you like off to the side without a glove? I was coaching third. Okay.
Starting point is 01:04:48 That makes more stuff. And I was watching the play at third. My guy slid and had any eyes on the ball. And I think it was the shortstop. He was like the cutoff man. He made a throw to third and he must have just thrown it way too fast because the third baseman completely missed it. And it went whizzing by my face, hit me.
Starting point is 01:05:07 I mean, really the best possible place could have hit me. I'm just so, so lucky. Is it going to affect your tennis? No. No, I play the best tennis of my life the day after. So I think I'm okay. Um, but yeah. Coaching bases could be a little scary sometimes.
Starting point is 01:05:23 That's what I says. Like, listen, there's too many errors in our leagues. You got to get to. Yeah, but like how close to you were the, how close to the base were you? That's probably 10 feet behind the base, but the throw was pretty close. I would say the distance between me and the guy was like the distance between second and third base, but on a little league field. Like we weren't, or like, we weren't on a major league baseball field. So he threw it as hard as he could.
Starting point is 01:05:48 And softball, I mean, it's the biggest. misnomer in sports. These things are super hard. They're huge. I was playing first base once and got drilled by a lefty. Hit a one hopper off my knee. I looked like the guy they got to hit by the buffalo at the state park. I once had to drive one of my teammates to the hospital after he got drilled in the face
Starting point is 01:06:12 by the shortstopper third basement throwing the ball, you know, way off first base line and just drilled the guy right in the head. Yeah, man. It's scary. because we don't wear helmets. And I was like, I think the riskiest thing because we were all so bad, you know, it makes such bad throws. You guys have nets for the pitcher or no?
Starting point is 01:06:28 No. Yeah, that's something that's become popular lately. We don't wear helmets. And then it's the throw to first. You're running a first base. You're obviously not looking. Yep. And that's the scary thing.
Starting point is 01:06:37 But base coaching too, I guess. Oh, there's, there's Marvin Metcalf, Jr. Right? It looks like D.K. Beckab. He's enormous. That could be a good thing. All right.
Starting point is 01:06:52 We're in a mirror. We'll talk to you tomorrow with tight end tears on fantasy football today. Podcasts. Where are you sending us? This is a fun one. On July 23rd, boldly go one step closer to where it all began. What we are about to do cannot be taken back. Stream the new season of Star Trek Strange New Worlds.
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