Fantasy Football Today - 6 Can't-Miss Dynasty Players to BUY and 6 Players You Must SELL (05/23 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings. Joined today by my good friend, unfortunately former league mate, and he probably hates me for that, Matt Okada. Matt, thank you for being here. Would you please just tell everybody, you know, what you've been working on lately and most importantly, where they can find your work. Yeah, I mean, listen, I don't hate you for it because I'm currently the back to back champion and having you out of the league means less competition to make the three Pete happens. So but I'm glad I'm glad I can really fun. Yeah, you can find me all over the place these days. FTN is where I'm doing a lot of my content. Currently, I used to be fade the noise.

Starting point is 00:00:43 I think now it's for the numbers. I do a moves to make column over there where every week where I talk by cell. Hey, that's that is very amazing how that works out. Yep. And then you can find me at DLF during the off season, especially and then four for four, particularly in the season where I host a podcast with John Paulson. And then, uh, I also do stuff for NFL media throughout the year, uh, NFL fantasy. So all over the place at metal Cotta on the socials, check it out.

Starting point is 00:01:17 Thank you very much for being here. And man, isn't it funny how it works out. This guy writes a column about buys and sells today's show is about vets, buys and sells. Often in May, I think, okay, we've talked about the rookies for the last three months. We've kind of abandoned the vets. So this today's show will be mostly non-rookies, but we always start with three questions for our guests.

Starting point is 00:01:41 And a lot of times I go to their social media accounts to try to find interesting things to talk about. And I saw a tweet from you, Matt, basically saying that you are embarrassed of your own Matthew Golden ranking. And so I thought I would just put you on the spot right out of the gate. Where do you have Matthew Golden ranked in Rookie Dress?

Starting point is 00:01:58 I should have known to keep my hot take, a shameful ranking takes off the Twitter until after the podcast. So here's the thing. Okay I'll just tell you right off the top where I have him ranked and then I'll then I'll say why. I have him at wide receiver 7 which is pretty low. I have him at 18 overall in super flex that's a 206 16th overall in 1QB. That is as low or about as low as I've seen anyone else rank Am I having behind Jayden Higgins behind Trey Harris behind Luther Burden?

Starting point is 00:02:32 I haven't behind the top seven running backs which includes cam scataboo admittedly. I'm a cam scataboo truther so that's one of the reasons he's higher but This is what it comes down to for me. Yes he ran a 429, yes he's a very good separator, he's honestly better at the catch point than a lot of receivers his size, the tape is pretty good but he's also 511, he's 191 pounds and he does not have the college production profile to make up for that size like someone like Devontae Smith does. Usually when these guys come in and they're undersized and everybody gets you know up in arms about how they won't last in the NFL. If they've posted Heisman winning multi-thousand yard season type college careers,

Starting point is 00:03:18 it can help assuage a little bit of that concern. Golden has not. He had a terrible production profile. He barely put together a decent season last year. And I think it kind of comes down to what we can expect at the ceiling. So for example, my comps for him, I comped him to Henry Ruggs, obviously off-the-field issues, very much aside, with kind of a Chris Olave ceiling. And that sounds not bad because we feel like Chris Olave is pretty good, but he's only scored 10 touchdowns over three seasons. He's never been a top 15 wide receiver in PPR. Obviously, he's had the concussion issues, but he's not at value nearly as highly now as he was a little while ago. I was reading an article by Dave Richards here at CBS Breaking down Matthew Golden. He said San Antonio Holmes was a ceiling comp

Starting point is 00:04:10 For what Matthew Golden does San Antonio Holmes had one career finish inside the top 20 So I feel like he kind of is capped out in this Jordan Addison's a flowers Chris Salove kind of range. Like that little pocket of Dynasty wide receivers right now feels exactly like what Matthew Golden's ceiling is, but the problem is he's being drafted around where their value is as his you know median outcome. They're all worth kind of a late first. That's where he's normally being drafted, but to me that's his optimistic ceiling and there's a good chance

Starting point is 00:04:45 He doesn't ever hit that and he ends up quite a bit lower than that. So I'm not Excited about paying that late first for his ceiling in this crowded Packers offense By the way who we have little to no idea who's gonna end up coming out on top Rather than paying the median price for him, which is somewhere I think in the mid mid maybe even late, probably made first, especially in super flex. And I'm never getting him there. So I'm never getting any Matthew golden. You know, I I've talked about that before.

Starting point is 00:05:16 And then sometimes in my rankings, I will put on there. Listen, if you want to draft this guy, you're going to have to reach for him based on my rankings. I've just decided it's okay that I'm not going to get any of them. I also say like one of the things I've talked about a lot of times in the show is what I really wanted to be able to talk to a diverse group of people who have different ideas than I do. These people have heard from me over and over and over that everybody's too low on Matthew

Starting point is 00:05:42 Golden. And then I'm taking him with the top 10 pick. And I pretty much approached the whole crowded Packers situation with it's a team that hadn't taken a first round rookie wide receiver in 20 years. They already had four number two wide receivers. If they thought he was a number two wide receiver, they wouldn't have taken them in round one. Listen, I think the best approach probably is if you play in five or six leagues, make the effort to get Matthew Golden on one of those teams and then

Starting point is 00:06:10 maybe decide if you like them enough to do it on to two, but if not, you can listen to Matthew and you will stay away. From kind of see, you kind of see that flowers, Addison tears his floor. Then I think the flowers comp is a great one. I just don't necessarily view flowers production so far. I don't know that we've necessarily seen flower ceiling. True. I think he will be similar to flowers.

Starting point is 00:06:37 Okay. Just as more of a comp and less of an upside. Yeah. If that makes sense. Yeah. Question number two, who is, you just talked about somebody you like now because that was, that was mean of me to put you on the spot and have to be negative right at the start of the show. Who's your favorite round three or later rookie running back.

Starting point is 00:06:57 It's really close between two. Um, I like Jarques Hunter and I like Jayden blue a lot. I have them ranked back to back 304 and 305 in Superflex. I would say if you're a contender that's looking for the most likely 2025 like redraft starter or if you're pushing for a championship this year, I might lean blue because he has a little bit of a smoother path the starter touches. But in most cases, my answer would be Hunter. And that'll typically be the case for me when you're breaking ties between guys like this, is to look further out even though one player might be a little bit better in year one, because things change so quickly. So on Hunter, you know, fourth round pick by the Rams, which is a good start out of Auburn It comes down to a few things one

Starting point is 00:07:49 I think Kyron Williams is overrated and I know that there's a lot of back and forth I think a lot of people really like Kyron Williams and a lot of people agree that he's overrated But where from where he's priced right now and obviously how he's played in recent seasons. It's not surprising I think that the the value is a little bit too high. He's had very good touchdown efficiency. He's good at scoring touchdowns and McVeigh is good at producing touchdowns for his running backs and he's gotten a really strong bell cow workload. But A, touchdowns are not sticky. I don't like relying on them. Just don't tell that to Kyron Williams past. It seemed pretty sticky so far. Well,

Starting point is 00:08:26 he's done a good job at it. And I think that is a lot about McVeigh because he's always produced touchdowns for his running backs. But more importantly, the Rams have showed this consistent interest in finding viable running backs to, I think, lighten his workload. They drafted Blake Corum last year. They drafted Hunter this year. They're not spending, you know, second round picks on these guys, obviously But I feel like they're picking running backs that they believe can fill in for or maybe succeed Kyron Williams. He also does not have a second gear Kyron Williams His explosive run rate last year was terrible's eighth lowest among qualified running backs and Blake Corum was incredibly inefficient

Starting point is 00:09:01 So maybe he gets a little bit better, Corum does. Kyron Williams obviously has been playing really well, so he doesn't have to get better, but I do think there's some room for him to step back. And he's been injured off and on. I'm not a geyser injury prone kind of person necessarily, but Kyron has battled it. Some of that might have to do with his size, some of it might not more importantly He's gonna be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 and I don't know if the Rams are gonna pay up to keep him so that means that there is a there's a path to RB to if Hunter can pass Corum, which would be a nice role to have in McVeigh's offense there's a path to fill in for

Starting point is 00:09:41 Williams if Williams misses any time and if you fill in as an RB one for McVeigh you're gonna be relevant in fantasy and then there's a path where Williams is gone by this time next year and all of a sudden we're talking about Jarqwes Hunter as an RB two with maybe Kyron Williams-esque upside he's kind of a similar back in some ways so I really like him as like a he's more of a stash than some other guys but I like him a lot. I like that answer of Hunter. I will say it's been a really difficult couple of years for Kyron Williams doubters.

Starting point is 00:10:11 And so maybe, maybe they deserve to get something good in their life. I pretty much just think that he's going to keep being an RB one until he's not an RB one anymore. And so I'll just keep valuing with that. But I think that Hunter picked because, especially just because of the injury upside, and if you like his skill set. I want a final question. It's not really about players, but just philosophy. Are you more likely to be buying or selling vets this time of year?

Starting point is 00:10:36 Okay. So this is a really interesting question because I've had some conversations with people recently about this and like, are there certain times of years you should be doing certain things? I don't really know that there is. So first and foremost, obviously, this depends a lot on your year over year strategy. Are you rebuilding? Are you contending? Rebuilders should be loading up on the rookies. Getting them now is kind of nice, either before during your rookie draft, because now you're

Starting point is 00:11:01 getting a year head start on those players, rather than drafting or like picking up rookie picks in the future. Now you have to wait and your rebuild is delayed by a year. Contenders theoretically shouldn't be selling veterans at all. And if you can buy them with a rookie pick right now when those rebuilding teams want those rookie picks really bad, then that is a win. But ultimately, I think it's less about time or time of year. And I think it's more about player expectations.

Starting point is 00:11:27 And I think people can get caught up in, oh, well, it's this time of year. Now is the time to sell or now is the time to buy. What I care about is who is the player and what do I expect to happen to their value over the next x months? So as an example, I had Mike Evans as a sell in my FTM column this past week and somebody commented on the tweet, no one should be selling Evans right now because

Starting point is 00:11:52 contenders should hold him, obviously, and rebuilders should wait until midseason to maximize his value. Because in the midseason when those championship teams are going for the championship, they might spend more. Theoretically, that can be true, but here's the thing, that only works if Evans gains or holds the value that he has right now from now until then. If he dips in value because he's another year older and he was dipping in production last year and Emeka Ibuka is there now, then come mid season,

Starting point is 00:12:22 he's gonna be worth less than he was now. I think, yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think it's maybe even more specific to Evans just because it wouldn't be surprising at all. If Chris Godwin gets off to a slow start coming off the injury and then by mid season has a bigger role. It wouldn't be surprising at all. The Bucca gets off to a slow start as a rookie and then carves out a bigger role by mid season. You might wait to sell Mike Evans till week seven or week eight. And all of a sudden Mike Evans has seen six targets in the last two weeks and

Starting point is 00:12:50 you have a really hard time selling him. Love those points. Let's take our first break. We'll get into our favorite dynasty vet buys right after this. We are back and we are talking dynasty buys and sells. We're going to start with Matt's buys. I'm going to give the disclaimer right off the top. These are all based on cost, especially when we get to the cells, it doesn't mean we hate these guys.

Starting point is 00:13:13 It just means we'd like to sell them at their current cost. I am using values. That's always a hard thing. Like what does a player actually worth? My favorite thing to use this time of year is just DLF current ADP. So I don't think I'm giving away too much from the subscriber side to just tell you where those guys currently rank in ADP. We'll talk about why we're selling at that cost.

Starting point is 00:13:35 Matt gave me three buys, one of which I've been jumping up and down for all off season long. So we'll start with him. Justin Fields is currently QB 26 by DLF ADP and that's not far from where he is in the consensus rankings either. Yep. It's like people have just completely ignored every time Justin Fields has ever started.

Starting point is 00:13:58 I, I, and it really, I think he's ranked very similar to Anthony Richardson who has a similar upside, but doesn't currently have a starting job with no actual competition for that role. I'm sorry, I'm not trying to steal all of your thunder mat, but Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position. Yeah. I mean, it's kind of not hard to steal the thunder because it feels so obvious, but these values you just stated them don't reflect that. So for some reason, everybody else doesn't see it and we have to capitalize on it. So I mean, I think the point you just brought up is great. He's

Starting point is 00:14:28 basically quote unquote basically Anthony Richardson except with less competition and arguably a better team except he's better than Anthony Richardson because he's a far better passer which is saying something when you're Justin Fields because his numbers have not been that great. But Anthony Richardson's numbers have been Tim Tebow-esque. He's the worst passer in the league right now. So Justin Fields is not that bad. Yes, he started off very rough. He's gotten a little bit better as a passer

Starting point is 00:14:56 in each of his years in the NFL. More importantly, I think he was a good passer in college. He had a 68% completion rate. He had a 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt Average passing in college. Both of those marks are really good. I liked him as a prospect I think he can get to that level. I think he can have the Jaylen Hurts Lamar Jackson type of progression Maybe not as high as that maybe not as high as Lamar But it doesn't necessarily have to be as high as Lamar and it's for the reason you brought up.

Starting point is 00:15:25 He has been incredible with the passing that he's had every single time he stepped on the field. As a starter, last three years, 18.8 fantasy points per game. That is good for QB7. He rushes for 60 yards a game. That is the most in the league by a quarterback, more than Lamar Jackson. So you don't have to be a good passer, or you don't have to be a great passer for sure. You maybe should be a good passer if you wanna be a consistent QB one,

Starting point is 00:15:56 maybe, although Fields has not been. Really the reason you want to be is so that you keep a job. And that obviously is the big question with Justin Fields. Can he keep a job? He's in New York now. They signed into a two-year $40 million contract with $30 million guaranteed. To me, that feels more like crafty discount starter money than overpaid backup money. And so I think that their goal is to get out of him. And they've said this actually vocally, the GM, Darren Moghe, has said they think they can get the Baker Mayfield Sam Darnold

Starting point is 00:16:27 kind of unbusting career trajectory out of Justin Fields, obviously very different players, but that sort of thing where he was drafted highly, sort of has fallen into near backup or backup realms, and now they're gonna give him a starting job and let him have a shot. I think he takes that shot and runs with it, pun not really intended, but kind of. And this price is just absurd because even if you only get one QB one season out of him, this price is not bad.

Starting point is 00:16:54 It's worth it for sure. Yeah, it's an easy buy for me, especially in one QB leagues where you can take this kind of risk. But even in Superflex, he's priced outside the QB two range right now in super flex I'm smash grabbing Justin Fields everywhere I can. Yeah. And that's what I think is the, is the difference is in super flex. You probably, if you acquire him at QB 26 cost, you probably have QB two QB ones for this year.

Starting point is 00:17:19 And then maybe you have to find a quarterback. I think it probably the jets team success is going to have as much to do with whether field like he needs to go win seven or eight games to make sure they're not in a position to draft a quarterback. Which he was winning games for the Steelers last year before they put Russell Wilson in for no particular reason. So it's not like he can't do it and this team is not dissimilar. Your second buy is Ken Walker who is currently RB 17. And I think that everybody knows Ken Walker is remarkably adept at making big plays. He probably tries to make a big play a little bit too often.

Starting point is 00:17:54 I think the concern and the reason he's RB 17 is because we've got a new offensive coordinator and we've got Zach Charbonnet there, and people are not sure about the workload. Yeah. I think it's both of those things. And I think also it's a little bit of the, he's been inconsistent and has had injuries and it's a, we know he would be a superstar if he would just stay consistent for a whole year because we've seen stretches.

Starting point is 00:18:19 He was the RB eight for two months as a rookie. He was the RB eight for the first two months of last year. He's had these stretches of really, really great production, but then he gets injured or for some reason the offense stops working. Here's the reason the offense has stopped working. He had Shane Waldron for two years who sucks. Shane Waldron's not very good. The worst offensive coordinator of the last few years. And then he had Ryan Grubb last year, who I had some hopes for. There was, you know, he seemed like he might come in and run an exciting offense. He got fired after one year.

Starting point is 00:18:53 So that tells you a little bit of something about how good he was. Over those three years under those offensive coordinators, they ran the ball in 39 percent of plays, which was the fourth use in the league, and they scored a touchdown on 50% of their red zone drives Which is the sixth worst in the league both of those things spoiler alert are not running backs so I think the offensive coordinators hurt Walker more than Charbonne and even more than the injuries and So now we have a new one. Okay. Well, it's just a rotating carousel. Is this gonna be any better a I don't think it can be worse because I just laid out how bad those other two guys were.

Starting point is 00:19:29 B. We don't have a lot to go on with Clint Kubiak. That's the guy, the new OC. We have one year of him basically coordinating the Saints. So it's a very small sample size. But what we did see from them is they started off the year really hot and then they got battered by injuries. The offense looked incredible when they were all healthy. Alvin Kamara set a career high in rushing yards in just 14 games at 29 years old under Kubiak. He had a lot of work to do that, but that's what we want from Walker, obviously. And then from what I've heard talk wise, it sounds like they'll run maybe a little more

Starting point is 00:20:03 zone run schemes and they might use a fullback quite a lot. They've talked about liking a fullback. Both of those things would benefit Walker and then every bit of offseason move that Seattle has made this you know these past few months has geared towards we want to run the ball and play defense. They traded Gino Smith, they traded DK Metcalfe, they cut Tyler Lockett, they signed Sam Darnold and they went guard defense tight end, a rushing quarterback and defense again in the draft.

Starting point is 00:20:29 Right. So I think that they're very much intending to run Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonneau. And I think that the big thing with Charbonneau is this is the last thing I'll say. Everybody freaks out because there's a decent, a good running back behind Kenneth Walker. There's a number two in this backfield. There's a number two in every backfield now unless you're Saquon Barkley or Derek Henry you're not getting that 250 reentered carry count Bell cow work that used to be the way the NFL worked I don't mind having a Zach Charbonneau in the backfield who can spell Walker and keep him fresh

Starting point is 00:21:01 especially with the way Walker runs where you want him to be making big plays like he's not a nodgy Harris yeah I call him really badly and I think I and keep him fresh, especially with the way Walker runs, where you want him to be making big plays. Like he's not a nonchie Harris, the way he's falling really badly. And I think there's definitely plenty of room for both of those guys. One of them as a borderline RB one, one of them as a flex.

Starting point is 00:21:16 That's not hard for me to believe. The big question with the new coach, and I'll just say I'm higher than Walker than consensus as well. So I definitely agree with this one as well. I'm not going to say I'm going to agree with everyone, but this one for sure. Um, I, but like who is the, the passing down's role is really important in the Kubiak offense and the touchdowns you mentioned are really important.

Starting point is 00:21:37 Who's handling those two jobs predominantly will determine whether Walker's a good value, a great value, or whether Zach Charbonneau maybe was the guy who was the great value. But I think you could buy both those guys who were third guy, Marvin Harrison Jr. down to wide receiver 13 in the consensus rankings. I think you could look at that one of two ways. Well, he was a consensus top five wide receiver a year ago, or man, he really wasn't very good last year and he's still wide receiver 13. You clearly see it the prior way. I've seen the I've seen him he's bulked up. He's taking

Starting point is 00:22:12 care of his body says he's eating a lot of protein. That's all awesome. But the real question is are they going to let him move more than five yards away from the sideline? Yes, that is the main question and can Kyler Murray figure out how to hit him as he should? Those are the big questions. Ultimately with Marvin Harrison it's kind of easy for me. It is he had a very good rookie season. We don't think he had a very good rookie season because he was you know drafted as highly as he was and we all expected him to be his father right out of the gate and to be a generational prospect.

Starting point is 00:22:48 His rookie numbers are close to generational and we, but we ignore that because we expected him to, be Jamar Chase basically. Honestly, a lot of this is about some of these rookie wide receivers in recent years ruining what the expectations should be for rookie wide receivers. But Harrison averaged 14 yards of reception, over 14 yards of reception, and at least half

Starting point is 00:23:10 a touchdown per game. There's only two other rookie wide outs who have done that. One was Jamar Chase, one was AJ Green. So those are the other guys in the Harrison camp in that respect. His team area yards share was 43% as a rookie. That's the highest by a first round receiver in the history of that stat. 65 other receivers. It's above Malik Neighbors.

Starting point is 00:23:31 It's above Justin Jefferson. It's above Chase. But among that same group of wide receivers, his catch rate, which was 53%, ranked 45th. His catchable ball rate last year was awful. Something happened between him and Kyler Murray where they just got way off the same page. They were in front of the back of the book. It's the same thing I just said about being,

Starting point is 00:23:54 like running 30 yards downfield, straight down the sideline over and over. It's a lot easier to throw a catchable ball to Trey McBride who's two yards downfield and has nobody within four yards of him. So yeah, it's that also assists him in the air yard share because Trey McBride can have a thousand yard season with 200 air yards just because it's a lot of dump offs and run down the field.

Starting point is 00:24:15 But I do think at wide receiver 13, that's very, very close. I've got Marvin Harrison Jr. at wide receiver 10. So again, all three of the buys I agree with. I anticipate you're not going to do the same with mine, but maybe you will. My first buy is Brock Purdy. Just got the new contract. I've been ranking it all off season as if this contract was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Now we've got it. He's definitely going to start for at least the next three years. I would anticipate he's going to be a starter in the NFL for the next 10 years.

Starting point is 00:24:46 I don't know if you've looked at any of Jacob Gibbs, uh, tweet threads recently. I don't know how you miss them if you're on Twitter, but he's been showing cutups and stats for every quarterback's. Downfield throws, mid-range throws. I think he's now getting to the shorter area throws and they all show that Brock Purdy is a, at the very least, a good passer. And he is playing in an offense that is just basically an EPA and yards per attempt cheat code. And that's probably not going to change. Last year, he had a bit of a down year and yes,

Starting point is 00:25:18 now he's lost Devo Samuel and Brandon Iukes got an ACL issue. But still over the last three years, since he became a starter. And I want to say something else when you reference fields fantasy points per game, I think some people probably thought that was low because CBS standard is six points per pass touchdown. True. And he's around 21 fantasy points in that in his starts and Purdy in CBS scoring since he became a starter is the number six quarterback in fantasy football in fantasy points per game. He's currently QB 19 with a guaranteed runway of at least the next three years.

Starting point is 00:25:50 Why is Brock Purdy ranked so low in dynasty? I have no clue. You mentioned he had a down year last year in four point scoring. I don't know what he is in six points going, but he was the QB 13 in just 15 games over that whole year. So how do you how do you have a down year? Miss two games finishes a QB 13 get a new contract have basically all the same weapons. Yes, you lost Evo But you expect Ricky Pierce all take that step forward and you dropped a QB 19. I don't understand it He was a QB 6 the year before that in four-point scoring. So he even has that ceiling

Starting point is 00:26:23 I don't expect him to be the QB six, maybe again ever, but I don't see how he's not the QB, you know, 12 plus or minus three or four spots for each of the next five to 10. Like you said years, how do you have that guy at QB 19 fresh off the contract? I truly don't understand it. I think he's one of, if not the best QB2 in Superflex. Obviously a little less valuable in one QB leagues, but if you're playing in Superflex, he's one of my favorite box. I love it. I've got him ranked as a QB1 in dynasty and I, as one of those guys that I would tell you, you don't have to pay as much for Purdy as how I have him valued in the trade chart. You can get him for less. So try to do that first. But I do think he's likely to be, I look at a lot of rankings and you see the guys

Starting point is 00:27:08 that are just ahead of him or the Baker Mayfield, the Jared golf, the Dak Prescott, the guys who all have very similar projections for this year, but are five to 10 years older than Purdy does not make any sense to me at all. My second buy a little bit more controversial probably is DeAndre Swift currently RB33 in DLF ADP. It almost feels like no one has adjusted to the fact that the Bears didn't make an attempt to go get another running back.

Starting point is 00:27:36 Now yes, Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, one of those guys could still sign there. I just think if that happens, then you're probably getting Swift's role from when he was in Detroit and everybody talks about, well, Ben Johnson didn't like Deandre Swift. Well, he was still a high end RB two and Ben Johnson system. Everybody else in this offense is getting the Ben Johnson bump. Even the rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burton are worth more now because they get to play with Ben Johnson. Roma Dunze is going to, Caleb Williams is going to have a breakout year because they get to play for Ben Johnson. There's no position, I don't think, that Ben Johnson has been better for than the running

Starting point is 00:28:09 back position. And as of May 23rd, Deandre Swift is in line for a huge workload. So at RB 33, I think you're getting the absolute floor. And he's still a guy who could have two to three years as a productive fantasy writing book Yeah, I think we've what we most people remember about the Lions stint is that he was constantly getting his touchdowns vultured Yeah, and it felt really bad because that does feel bad But he was still producing because he was he was a incredible PPR Running back and he was putting up good yardage as well And that was you know with him not having the starter role now as of right now he has a starter

Starting point is 00:28:50 role so I like the way you put it even if they bring in one of those guys and he drops down to that role he had under Ben Johnson earlier I think he still returns value with this RB 33 this is not a hot take for me I had Deon Trace with in my column a few weeks ago I think this is a great buy particularly for a contender. If you're fully rebuilding, maybe not so much, because I don't know if he's on this team in two or three years, let alone the starter.

Starting point is 00:29:12 Probably won't be. But this was a deep running back class, and they didn't pick a guy, and they haven't signed a guy. So I don't know that they're going to do it again next year. And last year, we just look at last year, he was RB 19 last year. That was a poor offensive line, a fledgling offense, disastrous coaching staff, a rookie quarterback. All those things have improved this year. They didn't bring anybody in, unless you count a seventh round pick, which I don't. I don't see how he's not a mid to high

Starting point is 00:29:42 end RB 2 this year with legitimate potential to be an RB1 Probably for this year and the year beyond and if that's all you get at RB33 price for a contender I'm fine with that, right? But you know chances are he continues to do something beyond that somewhere So I really like this buy. I don't know why he's priced this low. Well, again, a lot of times it is we, the last couple years in Detroit, we thought DeAndre Swift might be a top five running back. At one point in the dynasty rankings, he was a consensus top five running back. He let us down at that cost and we over adjusted, I think. My third buy, especially if you're a basal tooting guy is probably going to be unpopular. I am not, and I don't really understand why he's been anointed already. But if you're a basal Tootin guy is probably going to be unpopular. I am not and I don't really understand why he's been anointed already, but if you

Starting point is 00:30:29 look at the rookie or the dynasty running back ADP and rankings, you'll often see Tootin five to ten spots ahead of Tank Bigsby and that does not make any sense to me. I know that Tootin has some explosiveness maybe that that Bigsby doesn't have. He also dances a lot more than Tank Bigsby does and neither one of them can hold on to the football like they should. And so if I have a choice between ETN and Tooten, who in ADP are both very close to Swift at the RB30 range, or Tank Bigsby at RB44, which is dangerously close to free, then I am absolutely gobbling up

Starting point is 00:31:08 all of the Tank Bigsby that I can. Okay, I was kind of interested to see if you would sell me on this. Not because I like Basial Tooten, or because I dislike Tank Bigsby. Honestly, I am hands-off this entire backfield and have been, even before the Tooten pick, especially now with the tootin pick.

Starting point is 00:31:25 So I'm, I don't think I even have a share of any of these guys, but if I did, it would just be a hold situation for me. I just don't know what's going to happen there. Right. I don't know what their plan is, you know, new regime. So no connection to the old guys, but the old guys have better draft capital and they flash pretty well over various stretches. It's really hard for me to know what to do here.

Starting point is 00:31:43 I think that the main way in which you would sell me, maybe you have, maybe you haven't, is that Bigsby is just the cheapest. So, what's the biology? If you've got an ambiguous situation that you can't form a take on, then just draft the cheapest one, or acquire the cheapest one.

Starting point is 00:32:00 That's exactly where I am. That used to be my old strategy with the Bill Belichick offense. Like, he's got three running backs. We have no idea what to do. Just give me the cheapest one. Eventually that guy will pay off. Let's take our second break.

Starting point is 00:32:10 Then we'll get to some of our favorite sales. One of my favorite things is when questions in the YouTube comments lead into segments. And Steve helped us out today. He says, hey, Heath and Matt, I'm looking to sell James Cook and was wondering what's fair return for him. James Cook is Matt's top dynasty cell, or at least the one I listed first here.

Starting point is 00:32:32 His current value. It's funny because I don't know if you remember last year, but I was an enormous, huge James Cook backer and it happened. It didn't quite happen the way I thought it was going to. It happened because of touchdowns and not because of an increased workload. And now I agree with you that James Cook is a sell. I was surprised to see the RB18 cost because I actually think I have him ranked just a little bit higher than that. And it makes me want to lower him. But I do think that Cook as a sell is a good call.

Starting point is 00:33:04 You can go ahead and tell us why. And then if you could answer Steve's question about like, what are you looking to get for him if you're selling? Yeah. So I will say, I maybe wonder if the DLF list or DLF has been saying that James Cook is terrible. And so the DLF GDP looks a little lower because if you look at keep trade cut, which, you know,

Starting point is 00:33:23 I don't know how much you use that. Yeah, I try to use a different sources regularly so we get a full picture. Yeah. So I would trust DLF ADP a little bit more for the sharps, but on keep trade cut is probably where you're gonna find a little bit more of a consensus opinion. And he's RB 13 there.

Starting point is 00:33:40 And that's what I feel like he's actually going at. So to me, that price matters a little bit more You I think you said in the intro something about favorite sells This is my least favorite sell because I hate this I loved James Cook I was same as you I was in the same boat really like James Cook. He had his breakout year I'm so I'm so excited by I won some Dynasty Championships off of it And now I have to sell them because the price has moved in such a way that it only makes sense to.

Starting point is 00:34:08 And it's really all boils down to one thing. And that's touchdowns. I said earlier in the show, I don't think touchdowns are sticky. You said, well, they've been sticky for Kyron Williams. Well, they have not been sticky for James Cook. That's accurate. That was part of the case of backing him last year

Starting point is 00:34:23 was a touchdown. Exactly. Yes. So first two seasons, year was a touchdown. Exactly. Yes. So first two seasons, he scored nine touchdowns total. He scored a touchdown every 43 touches. That is an absurdly low rate. Last year, he scored 18 times. He scored once every 13 touches. That gap between 43 and 13 is absolutely absurd.

Starting point is 00:34:42 That's math breaking. So you know something is going to change and I think it's going to change heavily back the other way. So you look at the best, you know, if most efficient RB scores in the league, guys like Jameer Gibbs and Devon Aitchin, they're around 17 to 18 touches per touchdown.

Starting point is 00:34:57 If you include Cook's last season, that massive, you know, unbelievably inflated touchdown rate, his average over his career is still 23 touchdowns and league averages around, or 23 touches per touchdown, and league averages around 30. So I think you're much more likely to see him drop to the 20, 25, 30 touches per touchdown range

Starting point is 00:35:18 than what he had last year. And for some context for the listeners, like what does that actually mean? If you took his touchdown rate last year and you gave him a touchdown every 20 touches instead which is still very good and better than his career average he would have scored just 12 instead of 18 and he would have finished as the RB 18 instead of a high-end RB 1. So that's the difference it makes a huge difference how many touchdowns you score in fantasy and his you know inflation last year was absurd and he's not a super productive receiver so he kind of means those touchdowns to be very

Starting point is 00:35:50 very good he's in a good offense yes for now he's entering a contract year there's a lot of fuss about his contract i don't like that i don't particularly like rbs going into their second contract anyway so as much as i love james cook I think this is the ideal time to sell him. I don't think it'll ever be valued higher than this. So as for the, what should I try to get for him? I think a good place to start is, okay, obviously which rookie running backs do you like more than James Cook?

Starting point is 00:36:18 Cause you try to get younger at the position and maybe get someone who's better. So obviously Ashton Gentry is on that list. I assume that you would rather have a Marion Hampton than James Cook. I would. What about the group of Henderson, Judkins, Caleb Johnson, RJ Harvey? I have to put them all in the same group because everybody has a different order. I'm not sure if there's any consensus at all in those four, but if you're

Starting point is 00:36:42 looking, if you have Cook and whoever your RB three is, so let's say it's 105, 106 in that range, are you willing to deal him for that pick or that player? It's really close right there. So I have Trevion Henderson as my RB three, but he's down at seven overall in Super Flex. So five overall, cause I have two QB's ahead of him in 1 QB. I would rather have Henderson than Cook but after that I would switch to Cook. So Judkins is

Starting point is 00:37:13 after that for me then RJ Harvey I'd rather have James Cook than those guys. So it's right around that range. I think that's what you're moving or that's what you're getting if you're moving him hopefully. And if what about like a guy like a Tet or a Travis Hunter, happy to take those guys for cook both those guys for me over James cook. Yeah. And I would say if you're in, like, if you're trying, if you're just trying to get younger, maybe you're one year away, um, I would also take

Starting point is 00:37:38 Judkins and I'd consider Harvey and Johnson if you're moving towards a rebuild. I'd rather get wide receivers. I will also say, I think you can probably get Kenneth Walker plus, plus maybe a decent bit for James Cook. Obviously I had Walker as a buy, Cook as a sell. So for me, I'd make that. Yes, I have Walker ahead of Cook as well. So I think like they're right in the same range.

Starting point is 00:37:59 Yeah. If you can get plus, that's great. Your second sell is Caleb Williams. Didn't you get the memo? Everybody's supposed to be excited about Caleb Williams. There's nothing that could go wrong. His coaches are going to watch film with him now and tell him what to look for. Everything's going to be better. Yeah, well, maybe, maybe. And honestly, I think he will get better. The question is how much better will he get and will he get better enough to justify his price and his current valuation,

Starting point is 00:38:27 which is, you know, somewhere around QB eight QB sevens, depending on where you look. I did it. I did a little research fun dive when I was writing Caleb Williams as a cell for the FTN column, the, uh, bears have five pass catchers who are under 30 that were all drafted in the top 40 overall. That's why everybody's getting so excited. Oh my gosh, he already had multiple great players. Now they got two more pass catchers for him in the top 40. He has to be good, right? When was the last time that happened? So I looked. It happened in 2021. That was the last time it happened. Oddly, it happened with three different teams. One was the Buccaneers.

Starting point is 00:39:05 They had Tom Brady. He was great. He was a QB one. Interestingly, three of his best receivers were not part of that under 30 highly drafted group. They were Godwin, Gronk, and AB. The other two teams that had that, you know, gamut of stars, quote unquote stars,

Starting point is 00:39:21 were the Broncos and the Giants. The Broncos had Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock at quarterback. They averaged 15 fantasy points a game in four point. And also slightly better, I assume, in six point. The Giants had Daniel Jones, Mike Glennon, and Jake Fromm, and they averaged 12 fantasy points per game, which was the second worst in the league. To me, what I wanted to do with this experiment was find out, are we overvaluing the, you've got a ton of weapons, you have to be good as a quarterback concept, especially when a bunch of these weapons aren't proven. And I think that we are a little bit.

Starting point is 00:39:55 So I like Williams, I think he'll be a QB1, I think he should be a dynasty QB1. But he's right now QB7 or 8, I think he should be at the back of QB one range I'd rather have CJ Stroud I'd rather have Kyler Murray which I know is a pretty hot take I'd probably rather have Bo Nicks I'd probably probably rather have Jordan love what about Drake may all those guys are ranked lower so I think I think those guys are all good names I said what about Drake may Drake may is right on the line for me because it's, you know, I do value the weapons a little bit and Caleb Williams has all of them. And Drake may still kind of have none of them.

Starting point is 00:40:31 Right. Um, to me, it's, it's a pretty much a toss. So I would say in six points. So for CBS players, I'd go Caleb Williams and maybe in four point, I'd go Drake. May it's that close. That'll work. I do think, uh, we've agreed on almost everything. We made it to the 41 minute mark.

Starting point is 00:40:47 And now I'm going to let you break my heart. Jerry Judy is wide receiver 36 according to recent ADP. Jerry Judy, I have to say this every time I say his name, is still 26 years old. Basically the same age as Jaylen, I think slightly younger than Jaylen Waddle. I am acquiring Jerry Judy this off season. Everybody else is listening to you and selling him it seems. Why are you selling Jerry Judy? This is another tough one like James Cook, because I really liked Jerry Judy as a prospect and I was waiting for this breakout and he had this breakout over the last half of the second half of last year. Why did he have this breakout? It's two words.

Starting point is 00:41:27 The first is Jamus and the second is Winston. Now don't get me wrong. I do think Judy is talented and if he finds another good quarterback situation, I think he has this kind of potential, but let's just look back at the history a little bit. This, you know, all the way into November of last year before Winston came upon the scene in Cleveland. He was the wide receiver, 67 in value. Then he had this crazy seven game stretch with Winston

Starting point is 00:41:55 where he averaged 21 PPR fantasy points a game, which is wild. In the first seven weeks prior to Winston, he averaged eight fantasy points per game in PPR. His best single season mark was in 2022, he averaged almost 14. His best stretch of seven games prior to the Winston run was 16 at the end of that season. Now he's not being priced at 21 PPR fantasy points a game, admittedly, obviously. So it's not like you're buying that Jerry Judy specifically,

Starting point is 00:42:26 but you are buying a Jerry Judy that's nearly twice as valuable as he was at this or midway through last season because I think of the bump he got from Jameis Winston. Yeah, and I- Go ahead. If there was another quarterback that we could trust, I would feel really good about him because I like him,

Starting point is 00:42:43 but what on earth is happening in Cleveland, I have no clue. I'd rather have, you know, Godwin, Shakir, Ridley, there's a bunch of vets going the same range, and I'd rather have rookies like Burden, Harris, Jayden Higgins, Jack Besh, who are all similarly valued if I'm rebuilding. I think this is one of those situations where what Kevin Stefanski chooses is going to greatly determine what it goes on with Jerry Judy. Because I think there is a guy in Cleveland who could be just as good for Jerry Judy as Jamis Winston was. It's Joe Fleckow. If you tell me that they're just going to start Joe Fleckow, then I think Jerry Judy might be a top 12 wide receiver this year. He was wide receiver three with Winston. If you tell me they're going to start Dylan Gabriel or Kenny Pickett,

Starting point is 00:43:27 then he might not be a top 36 wide receiver. And I don't have any idea. I haven't, I'm just the best thing I feel like I can do in this whole hot take should do her Sanders situation is just express my complete lack of ignorance and we'll see what he becomes, but not as good for him as Joe Flacco would be. we'll see what he becomes, but not as good for him as Joe Flacco would be. So I do think that there's both a risk and an upside

Starting point is 00:43:50 at the wide receiver 36 cost. Matt is selling it, a little more concerned about the risk. I am buying it, a little more hopeful about the upside. You guys can make your own decision. I have three sells for you as well. We'll get through those pretty quick. The first one, I feel like an idiot for saying, because somebody said this each of the last four years,

Starting point is 00:44:08 but Derek Henry somehow is RB 10 in recent ADP. That would make him RB three in this running back class. It'd make him worth about the 106 in rookie drafts. And I know the rules don't apply to him. He's just going to be as good for as long as he wants to be and there's never going to be a drop-off and there's no injury risk. He's given us evidence to believe that and I don't blame you if you do. I'm not valuing a 31-year-old running back in a great running back class like the number three running back in the class. If whether you're rebuilding or not, you should trade Derek Henry for an option

Starting point is 00:44:50 to take Trevion Henderson or RJ Harvey or Quinchon Judkins or Caleb Johnson, whoever your RB three is, make that move. Man, this one is so tough. I've been in that camp of the guys you mentioned who have said sell Derek Henry for four straight years. This is officially the year I've decided, even though of the guys you mentioned who have said sell Derek Henry for four straight years This is officially the year I've decided even though he's older than he's ever been to just give up on that concept like he's simply not human and I'm Made my piece and that's why he's RV 10 at 31 years old. Yes, correct

Starting point is 00:45:19 And I will say like I look I actually had him as a buy I expect contender specific buy in one of my recent columns. You have to be obviously going for the championship this year to do it. But I looked into his numbers last year. He was more efficient last year than he has been in several seasons or in his whole career, depending on what stat you look at.

Starting point is 00:45:39 His explosive runs, he had more than, higher rate than Saquon Barkley, and only Saquon Barkley had more raw explosive runs last year. So he's not lost a step. I don't know what to do with him. He's not human. But in fairness, like your take is kind of the correct one because science eventually,

Starting point is 00:45:59 father time eventually always wins. So it has to happen. I just don't know if I can do it with Eric Henry. I funny story in our Yolo dynasty league, which is one I talk about a lot. It's a 14 team IDP league with most of the people from CBS. I traded Derek Henry three years ago, for I think it was a first and a second, went through a rebuild, came out of the rebuild was ready to contend last year and

Starting point is 00:46:23 traded that same team two seconds for Derek Henry. So I've been both an idiot and a genius with regards to Derek Henry. I think at this point in his career, almost anyone who calls themselves a fantasy analyst has been 100% right about Henry and 100% wrong in one of those years. I understand just not wanting to deal with it anymore. My second cell, probably not a popular one, but Terry McLaurin is up to wide receiver 21. There's talk about McLaurin getting a nice extension and he's not 30 yet. So I wouldn't say he's old. He's old adjacent. He's going to be old soon. September 15th, he turns 30. I think you maybe had two years of McClellan left. And the point that I want to make is that Terry McClellan did not do anything

Starting point is 00:47:14 different last year besides score touchdowns. It's almost the James Cook situation. You look at, he had 82 catches the prior four years. He'd averaged 80 catches a year at a thousand 96 yards. That's just about his average over the prior four years. He scored 13 touchdowns. He'd scored 14 the prior three years. He I don't expect him to go back down to four or five touchdowns,

Starting point is 00:47:39 but I think you should expect it's probably closer to eight or nine this year. He didn't see a big target boost and they just added Debo Samuel. I think Terry McLorin's a good, low end number two wide receiver who also maybe has two years of good production left. McLorin's a really tough one for me. I think I'm sort of in the hold camp

Starting point is 00:48:01 because your point is 100% correct. He's basically the James Cook situation. These touchdowns and I've mentioned now multiple times I don't trust them. They're not sticky. They're likely to regress when they suddenly bump up. The only catching point for me with McLaurin is there's a feels like there's a reason and his name is Jaden Daniels. Why his touchdowns bumped up. He went from having horrible quarterback play for the entirety of his career to having, you know, one of the best, it looks like, young quarterbacks in the league.

Starting point is 00:48:32 How much of a difference does that make? Does that make the touchdown numbers trustworthy? Still though, the age clip is there. It's really close for me. I think I mainly have him as a hold, but if you can sell him and get, you know, a borderline first round pick and draft one of these rookie wide receivers that I like more than McLaurin at this point, then I'd be happy to do that.

Starting point is 00:48:54 And my third cell is a guy who was on, we did this show back in March and I tried and I tried to choose mostly new guys, but Brandon Iuk is still ranked at wide receiver 31. I don't really anticipate Brandon Iyuk helping your fantasy team for sure for the first half of this season, maybe for the majority of this season. And then you get to the point where he's not that far behind Terry McClellan in terms of age. And like, as much as all of us who watch film know that Brandon Iyuk is really good at playing football, that's really only translated into must start production once in his entire

Starting point is 00:49:33 NFL career. Yep. So if he's currently hurt, and we haven't seen him return to form, and he's probably not going to help you the first half of this year, I don't think he should be valued as high as wide receiver 31. Yeah, I think this is one of those ones where we get attached to players talent, which is a good thing to do in dynasty. Mostly, you should get attached to players talents and situation will change. And the talent will win out. But I think we might be more attached to Brandon Iuk's talent than San Francisco or the NFL is for some reason, or Brock Purdy is, I don't know what it is, but I have the exact same notes on IUCS as you.

Starting point is 00:50:08 It's like, well he's good and he had that one really good year, but that's also the only really good year he's had and every other year has been a disappointment. He wasn't even playing well before he got hurt last year and now he's coming off injury. So I like this one as a sell. I think there is a time at which we have to say, okay, what I see is not working out the way that it's supposed to. I think it might be time to move on to what is actually happening on the field. And I think that's the same thing about a guy you referenced earlier in Chris Olavi. It's a similar type of deal. We know he's good at what he does, but until it translates to, there'll probably be one spike year for Olave and everybody will get to say, see, I was right. And then he'll go back to being a wide receiver three, like he has been for the rest of his career. Matt, awesome, awesome stuff.

Starting point is 00:50:52 Really appreciate you coming on the show today. Tell everybody one more time where they can find your work. Yeah. Uh, at Matt Okada, okay. ADA on Twitter, on blue sky. Uh, there's a tick to TikTok now, Madokata NFL, but mostly you can check out the FTN fantasy TikTok and all of their video socials.

Starting point is 00:51:10 I'm doing a bunch of stuff over there. Rookie ranking videos are dropping right now. And then 444DLF and eventually NFL fantasy back when the season kicks in. You can find me all those places. I'll be pumping out stuff. If you want to get more buy sells, I put out a column every week, so check it out.

Starting point is 00:51:27 Thank you, Matt. Thank you, Harry, for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat with your questions. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

Fantasy Football Today - 6 Can't-Miss Dynasty Players to BUY and 6 Players You Must SELL (05/23 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

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