Fantasy Football Today - 6 Dynasty Stars We Haven't Talked Much About with guest Kyle Yates! (2/23 Fantasy Football Today Dynasty)
Episode Date: February 24, 2024Fantasy Football Today Dynasty is available on the Audacy app and Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you listen to podcasts! SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast.../fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Kyle Yates from Pro Football Network joins Heath Cummings on FFT Dynasty to discuss players we are buying or selling this offseason. But first, we have three questions (3:40) for Kyle: What is the one dynasty rule you love for startup leagues? What are your top non-QB prospects (5:10) for rookie drafts? What veteran (8:30) are you looking to buy in the offseason? Next, we dive into players we have not talked much about, including Joe Burrow (12:38), Kyren Williams (20:15), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (25:02), Chris Godwin (28:55), and more. Finally, we answer your questions (35:24) Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
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Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty.
I am your host, Heath Cummings, and we are here on a Friday.
Get used to it. That's right.
We're going two days a week with FFT Dynasty. And to celebrate that fact, we've got a special guest, Kyle Yates from Pro Football Network.
Kyle, thank you for being here today.
Absolutely. Thanks so much.
We were talking before we started recording, like it feels like an eternity since you and I have done a podcast
together. And we were like, I actually think that was back in 2022 was the last time that we have
done anything together. And in this industry, that is an absolute eternity. So I am very excited to
be here. And of course, talking dynasty, which is my true passion. I am all for this. Yeah,
I think that that's that's a common feeling amongst people who do
this as analysts, like that being able to keep a league together for 10, 15, 20 years with the
same guys. It's just so special and kind of serves the original purpose of this game, which is
keeping friends together. My favorite league, even though I hate the rules now because it was set up
when I
was like 20 years old and we did a bad job and now I can't get people to vote for the right rules.
My favorite league though is the guys I'm with from guys I went to high school with like 13 guys
that I went to high school with that are all still in the same league. I wouldn't talk to half of
those guys if it wasn't for the fact we were playing fantasy football together, but it's not
about me. I want to, I want to talk about you for a second. Tell the people what you've got going on over a pro football
network in terms of fantasy right now. Yeah, for sure. So pfnfantasy.com is where we got all of
our fantasy content. We are rolling through individual dynasty profiles. That's our big
thing right now that we are rolling through. You got a question about what to do with Kyron
Williams and dynasty. We've got an article there for you. So pfnfantasy.com along with
rolling through Derek Tate does some phenomenal
work with scouting and getting ready for the upcoming draft and what that
means for dynasty rookie draft.
So everything that you need pfnfantasy.com.
Today's show is one that we do every couple of months because I realize we
haven't talked about these guys in a while.
In fact,
if I was putting a title on the show,
that's what I would do.
Thomas is much better at titles than I am.
So he'll come up with something that's much better for the search engine. But yeah, these are guys
we have not talked about in a while. Joe Burrow, Kyron Williams, Chris Godwin, Mark Andrews,
much, much more. We're also going to try to answer some of your tweets. So if you send us a question
on Twitter via the chat or via the chat, we will try to answer that at the end of the show.
But first, as always, we start with three questions
for our guests.
And Kyle, every guest
gets this first question.
We'll see how original you can be
or, you know, if we even agree on it,
you're starting a new Dynasty League.
What is the one rule or setting
that is non-negotiable
for you in a Dynasty League?
Oh, that's a good question.
I immediately comes to mind
is Superflex.
That is one of the main things that, you know, that's a good question. Uh, I immediately comes to mind is super flex. Uh, that is one of the main things that, you know, it's changed the way that I view fantasy football since I played
in my first super flex league a few years ago. Um, it properly values the quarterback position.
So I think that that's one of the big arguments or, you know, kind of drawbacks that people have
when they play fantasy football is, well, I don't need to value the quarterback position the same
way that NFL teams do. Well, in super flex, flex you have to you have to place a priority there on the quarterback
position uh if i was going to go with like a league setting versus you know a format i would
say probably a lottery for the final four picks in your draft to prevent tanking um that's something
that we've implemented in a few of my leagues. And that has been sort of a game changer because definitely still like there's, you know, there's a benefit to quote unquote tanking, you know, to kind of if you're just simply not going to compete.
I mean, like a super flex league that I'm in Dynasty League, I lost Joe Burrow.
Every quarterback that I had this year seemingly got hurt.
Right. Right. And so I'm literally in my starting quarterback spot when he's not even the starter i'm playing mitchell trubisky because that's the only
option that i have in my dynasty league i'm like i am not having fun uh and so like there's a point
where i have to you know just kind of tank and i have to by necessity because i can't compete i
don't have the players in a lottery system you're that it's weighted right you have the if you
finish and you finish with the worst record in the league,
you have four opportunities to get that number one overall pick.
But it completely prevents at least someone from week one mailing it in
and sort of just kind of having someone who's playing you later on in the year,
they know that they're going to get an automatic win or something like that.
It at least balances things out a little bit.
So I think a lottery is definitely something that a lot of people
should look into. Okay. And so I think we've got a complete agreement on the first answer.
Superflex by far the most common answer that I get to that question, regardless of guest. In fact,
some people have even told, okay, you can't say superflex. What is it? So I'm glad you gave a
second answer. We have complete disagreement on the second answer because I am extremely pro-tanking, and that's only because I'm a sicko.
I love the process of building up those draft picks, but some people, I agree with you, and especially because they hate the idea that they might go two years where they're donating their entry fee.
I'm okay with it.
It's lots and lots of fun.
So second question here, who are your top five picks in a one quarterback rookie draft as of
today? I said one quarterback because it's, yes, we prefer super flex. Caleb Williams is going to
be in there. Drake May is going to be in there. Jaden, it gets a little bit more interesting if you go for the top five non-quarterbacks.
So do you have a top five right now?
Yeah, I think I'm just starting to get into, with my role over at PFN Fantasy,
I am more of looking at the high end level and not as much in the weeds.
So getting a little bit later to scouting and getting into the weeds there.
So I would say right now, Marvin Harrison Jr.,. Wide receiver out of Ohio state is my one-on-one. However, I think a lot
of people are viewing him as the clear consensus one-on-one and then a big tier gap to Malik
neighbors, the wide receiver out of LSU. I don't view that as a big tier gap. I put them into the
same tier. Malik neighbors is a special talent that that athleticism and what he brings to the
table, uh, is just just it's a game changer.
I think both of these guys are going to be instantly into top 10 of my dynasty wide receiver
rankings as soon as they step foot into the NFL. So I would go Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Neighbors,
and then at wide receiver three, I'm going to go Troy Franklin, wide receiver out of Oregon.
A lot of people like Romo Dunze. I've got him at the 104
the wide receiver out of Washington, but Troy Franklin, the athleticism and what he brings to
the table, a mixture for me between Will Fuller and Jalen Waddle as far as roles and what he can
bring to the table. So you obviously have that deep threat with Will Fuller from back in the
day and what he could do as that deep threat for Deshaun Watson and Troy Franklin brings that to the that to the table but then you have the jalen wattle ability where he can take a slant and he can
absolutely take it to the house franklin brings that to the table as well at 6 3 187 pounds
romo dunze i really really like him i compare him to keenan allen definitely someone that i think is
going to step into the nfl and be a polished receiver could soak up targets instantly like
that's exactly what he
could be, uh, that Keenan Allen. I just don't know if he has the true athleticism and speed
and explosiveness to be a vertical outside receiver, you know, 55% of the time, I think
that he's going to be mostly lining up in the slot there. So Romo Dunzay. And then at the 105,
I think that you get into a little bit of a tier gap at wide receiver. You could talk about guys like Xavier Worthy out of Texas or Adonai Mitchell out of Texas
or Brian Thomas Jr., the wide receiver out of LSU.
But I'm going to put Brock Bowers, the tight end out of Georgia into that 105 spot.
If you don't like the tight end, you know, being in that spot, then I think you look
at Caleb Williams and the advantage, the quarterback out of USC, the advantage that he could bring
to the quarterback position.
So top four, Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Neighbors, Troy Franklin, Romo Dunzey,, the quarterbacks, and Brock Bowers.
Now, I am still skeptical that this, because we've had people on that say they don't have a running back in their first round right now.
And I understand that.
I expect that once we get landing spots, specifically Blake Corum on the Chargers with Harbaugh,
we're going to have a couple of running backs get pushed up into that late
round one,
especially when you're talking about contenders that may really feel like a
running back could put them over the top.
I wouldn't be surprised if there's two or three running backs that go in
first round,
but for now I agree with you.
We're looking at four or five wide receivers or four wide receivers and
Brock Bowers question.
Number three,
we'll switch gears here.
What veteran are you acting actively looking to buy this off season? This is interesting because I think that
it kind of dovetails off of what you were literally just talking about with Blake Corum and, you know,
John, uh, John Harbaugh or Jim Harbaugh, excuse me, um, being back in the NFL and landing with
the chargers. I think that the chargers could be a team that with Greg Roman now as offensive
coordinator, go into this free agent market, uh market and go hunting for a running back there as
well.
Could be both,
right?
It could be,
they go after one of the big running backs and then take Blake Corum as
well in the third round or whatever that looks like.
So the,
the guys that I'm,
you know,
kind of looking at here are potentially running backs that could end up in
a better spot this off season.
And I think we're going to see a massive amount of musical chairs with this with this running back free agent class. So Josh Jacobs immediately comes to mind,
still only 26 years old. And I think that people are kind of soured on him, even though he just
came off of a really, really impressive year two years ago, kind of because he didn't have a solid
end of the year this past year. We play with a very recency bias is a very real thing in dynasty. So I think Josh Jacobs, you can get him for a little bit cheaper. Uh, Zach Moss is
another one too. I mean, uh, he's an upcoming free agent that I think that is going to command,
uh, is, is going to have NFL teams interested here this year based on what he did at the
beginning of the season and replacement for Jonathan Taylor. You do not have to trade away
a ton to go get Zach Moss because people don't know that he's an upcoming free agent.
Think that he's just the backup to Jonathan Taylor.
And you go get him for a mid second round pick.
The one that I will say that I'm very aggressively trying to go after this
year,
especially if I'm in that late first where we talked about it,
there may not be a running back that goes within the first round.
If I am desperately in need of a running back on the wind now team,
which is in that late first, you know, you're picking late first. I'm a win now team,
but I needed a running back. Javante Williams is someone that I am very, very intrigued with
going after here this off season. Guys, Javante Williams is still only 23 years old. Like this
is still someone that is still very, very young. He did not produce here this past year, but we
really shouldn't have expected him to like he was coming off of a devastating injury and the fact that he played
as much as he did is encouraging we see these guys slowly start to ramp up uh their production and
start to get back to what they were a year removed from that injury year plus removed from that
injury davante williams is someone i'm very very intrigued with even if it doesn't happen here in
denver the potential of what he could be down the line in a new landing spot in just a couple years Javante Williams is someone I'm very, very intrigued with. Even if it doesn't happen here in Denver,
the potential of what he could be down the line in a new landing spot in just a couple years, still only 23 years old,
and you can easily send away a late first, early second round pick
to go get Javante Williams.
I love that call on Javante Williams.
I do think that it's not that difficult to get him for an early second.
Maybe even a late first would be worth it.
Kyle is going to jump out here and see if we can get that.
We want to see just how good looking Kyle is.
We're not quite getting that full effect here on the YouTube stream.
So we'll have him right back.
We're going to take a short break, and then I want to talk about Javante Williams,
and then we're going to get into guys who we have not talked enough about lately.
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Okay, so we are back.
And I will say, like, it's important to remember, with Javante Williams and DeAndre Swift, another one, except he is a free agent.
These guys, a year ago, were consensus top 10 dynasty running backs.
Or a year and a half ago, consensus top five dynasty running backs.
Sean Payton's system.
Oh, yeah.
There he is.
180p.
Yeah.
Looking great. Um, this is an excellent rebound
opportunity with both Javante Williams and possibly Deandre Swift, depending on what happens
in free agency. So I absolutely agree with that call. Let's talk about some guys that we've not
talked about enough and I want to kind of share where I'm at on them. And we'll start with Joe Burrow.
A couple years ago, I was probably a little bit lower than consensus on Burrow.
He'd kind of creeped into that top three or four dynasty quarterback range.
He has definitely shown us that kind of upside.
He's struggled with injuries more than maybe we would have expected,
but I'm not sure how predictive that is
because it seems to be a different thing every time. I've got him right now ranked at QB six,
but he feels to me like he's closer to QB eight than he is to QB four. A very, very good number
one quarterback who's going to be that for the next five years, but I'm not sure that he actually
has that QB one overall upside. How do you feel
about him, Kyle? I literally think you could copy and paste every single thing that you said. And
that was going to be what I summarized for Joe Burrow. Yeah. I, the, the injury history, you
know, and the fact that he seemingly is dealing with something every single year is definitely
concerning, but yet, like you mentioned, it's not like this is a hamstring issue for him every
single year that creeps up at the same time right like it's it's a completely different like a
thumb popping issue like that is so completely fluky like we can't hold that really against him
or his calf you know going down in in training camp like that that isn't something that we can
really really hold against him we know the talent level we know what he can be when he's got all of
his weapons and everything is operating you know the way that it We know what he can be when he's got all of his weapons
and everything is operating, you know, the way that it should. So I think Burrow is, he's at QB
six for me as well. He's right in that territory. And it's really interesting when once you get
past, you know, I've got Josh Allen at QB one and dynasty, Patrick Holmes, Lamar Jackson,
then really once you get to pass that top three tier, then it's Jalen Hurts, CJ Stroud, Joe Burrow,
Anthony Richardson,
Justin Herbert for me. And I feel like if you want to put Justin Herbert all the way up at QB four
in dynasty, I'm fine with that. Like, and you want to put Jalen Hurts all the way down at QB eight,
I might have a slight disagreement with that, but like the that's a, that's a tier for me that you
can kind of shake any of those guys up and roll the dice and wherever they land is where they land.
So yeah. So, so you mentioned that the
weapons and that was kind of my second question on burrow. Cause T Higgins, we talked about it
earlier this week with Joey, right? One of the guys who is a free agent, I think most people
expect T Higgins is going to be back with the Bengals for one more year. Um, I've got zero
expectations beyond that though. How much does that matter to you we've mostly seen joe burrow with some of the best
weapons in the nfl if it's if he's going into next year or the year beyond and it's jamar chase
locked up for the long term it's joe burrow locked up for the long term but it's going to be kind of
a patrick mahomes situation other than that we're going to have to just kind of put the pieces
together do you think that impacts burrows Yeah. So you mentioned this next year,
the Bengals,
according to over the cap have $53 million in effective cap space for this
year.
So the ability to franchise tag T Higgins for this season is absolutely,
I think it's a slam dunk.
Like they're going to do it.
I feel very,
very confident in that.
Past that point,
like you mentioned though,
there is some unknown where can you really go into this 2025 and beyond with needing to lock up Jamar Chase?
You've got Joe Burrow locked up, but you sign T. Higgins to a long term contract extension.
That is a massive amount of money to dump into three players for your entire team.
I think Tyler Boyd's gone this next year.
So I think that because he's a free agent this this offseason as well.
So I think that for at least 2024, T. Higgins, Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow, they're going to
be reunited.
They're going to be that trio.
But then you've got some really, really interesting depth options as well with Andre
Yoshavas, the wide receiver out of Princeton.
He'll be going into his second year.
He showed some flashes this past year.
And then Charlie Jones as well, who I think is going to be the Tyler Boyd replacement
in this offense for 2024.
So it's joe burrow and i think that we've
seen the he was one of the best if not the best quarterback prospects coming out in over the past
10 years like everyone's like oh trevor lawrence was the best quarterback prospect coming out since
andrew luck i'm like guys we've already seen the best quarterback prospect since andrew come out
and it was joe burrow the talent level's there he can elevate his weapons just like patrick
mahomes does,
but we've seen him be the most effective
when he has these truly dominant wide receivers
at his disposal.
I think he can elevate Andre Joshevosh.
I think he can elevate Charlie Jones,
but if they can go into and prioritize that position
for 2025 and they go into that 2025 NFL draft
and they draft a wide receiver to pair with Jamar Chase,
reset that salary number for that wide receiver to down to a lower, let T Higgins walk or
trade him away.
I really don't have as many concerns with Joe Burrow long term.
It is now all purely the injury history and actually the reliability.
Can you truly rely on Joe Burrow?
And I think that the injuries have been more fluky than anything else.
And we will
eventually see that start to normalize. I want to talk about another quarterback who had some
injury concerns coming into this season to a tongue of Iowa. We all know how bad the concussion
situation was in 2022 did not resurface at all in 2023. I guess the martial arts training worked.
He learned how to fall. He no longer hits his head when he falls. That's fantastic.
But the production wasn't actually elite. And he's got Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle right now.
Tyreek Hill, who said he's not going to play that much longer. I've got Tua at QB 12. And part of that's the fact that he's a borderline QB one who's young enough that he could have a very long
future. At the same time, if he doesn't have Tyreek Hill or if the injury issues resurface,
which a concussion much more troubling for me than the injury issues Burrows
had.
Yep.
How confident are you that Tua is even a starting quarterback in the NFL
four or five years from now?
Oh man.
Okay.
There's so many layers to this question.
I think that how confident am I that he's going to be a starting quarterback in the NFL?
Very.
I think that Tua Tungabailoa will still get, if it's not a long-term contract extension with Miami, whatever,
he will get a starting role somewhere.
Now, the best fit for him, though, is to stay united with Mike McDaniel over the long term.
That means that he's got to get that long-term contract extension from Miami.
Will Miami give him the long-term contract extension
because of the injury history and the durability concerns?
Who knows?
So I think that from a dynasty perspective,
as soon as we have clarity on that,
that will greatly dictate where Tua lands
within my dynasty rankings.
You said you've got him at QB 12.
I've got him at QB 14.
Then that's just behind Kyler Murray and Jordan Love so I would rather have Jordan Love than Tua Tonga Bailoa in dynasty
over the long haul imagine saying that several years ago I would have just been absolutely
laughed off the face of the planet but what we saw from Jordan Love here this past year was pretty
special so yeah Tua I think the over the long term I think that he will be a starting quarterback in
the NFL but for him to be a top five, top eight fantasy football quarterback, because he brings very little,
if nothing to the Russian conversation, he's got to have the elite weapons. He's got to be
in this offense that caters to his strengths, because we've seen when he's in an offense that
doesn't cater to his strengths. He's not anywhere near the fantasy starting quarterback radar.
Well, and I think it's not just the angle of does Tua get the long-term deal,
but the Dolphins probably have to make some progress in the next year or two, or he could be on the Dolphins and not tied to McDaniel. So there's multiple ways that this
could go wrong. It does seem like the combination of his head coach, Tyreek Hill as a wide receiver one,
Jalen Waddle as a wide receiver two, it's probably not getting any better than that.
And there's lots of risk of it getting worse. And this kind of goes back to the super flex point
in a one quarterback league. I'm not super confident that two is going to be fantasy
relevant in four or five years and a super flex. You're right. He's probably going to be a starter
in the NFL, which is going to make him fantasy relevant in that format let's shift
gears over to running backs and you want to talk about a guy you've got reason to worry about
longevity well first off he's a running back you have reason to worry about longevity with all of
them kyron williams just became a fantasy stud this year completely out of nowhere. I know there are people who were Kyron Williams truthers, and I would give them credit, but he wasn't the week one starter.
Cam Akers had 20 plus carries in week one.
He gets cut, and all of a sudden they're giving the ball 25 times a game to Williams.
Now, this is exactly the type of guy that seasoned dynasty experts or managers will tell you, you need to take the
profit. If you've got a day three running back, a UDFA running back, they'll say, look at James
Robinson and what happened to him, right? Look at Damian Pierce and what happened to him. You need
to take this profit, go sell them for you. Now, the only thing I would push back on that, and we've
talked about this a little bit over the past couple of weeks, a lot of times those guys who have such low costs and get replaced, it's because of a regime change.
Robinson got the new head coach.
Pierce got the new head coach.
Even Michael Carter got the new head coach.
Isaiah Pacheco, a similar situation, same regime.
He kept his job.
So as long as Sean McVay is there,
do you feel good about Williams? He's crept all the way up to my RB nine and that feels
even uncomfortably high for me, but he's a consensus top 12 running back. So I'm not that
far ahead of consensus. I've got him at RB seven. So I'm a little bit more aggressive. Now you
mentioned one of the, you know, there were analysts that absolutely loved Kyron Williams coming out. I was 100% in that camp. I had, there's a tweet that
people love to bring back up from mine, which is purely my film grades. It's ignoring context,
but, and I have since learned to not just release my pure film grades because of this tweet,
but from a pure film perspective, I liked Kyron Williams more than Brees Hall coming out
in that NFL draft class. Like purely what Kyron Williams brought to the table as a pass protector dramatically
boosted his stock. Now he falls to the fifth round of that NFL draft. And I was very, very quiet all
of last year because I was like, this is just not happening. Even though I'm a big believer in the
talent, I knew that he could produce. I did not see this coming. Like I did not see Kyron
Wilm is producing in this manner. I thought that he was going to be a good third down running back
that could contribute slightly on first and second down because he still is an undersized back.
That's the other big part of this is he's still a sub 200 pound running back, but that hasn't
stopped him from being dramatically productive here. Especially this past year, two weeks before
the season
kicked off in Scott Fishbowl, I had an open spot. I think I dropped Richie James to go pick up
Kyron Williams because I was just like, I'm just, you know, I like Kyron Williams. There's a path
with Cam Akers, which again, we talked about like, feels like an eternity ago. It feels like an
eternity ago that Cam Akers and Kyron Williams were sharing the same backfield. But we saw what
Kyron can do. So the talent level is there.
The regime consistency is such a great point, Heath,
because, and that's something that I've overlooked,
which is fantastic to bring that to the table.
Because yes, that is a massive key part of a running back
that has this day three draft capital
continuing to hold onto that job.
Isaiah Pacheco is a perfect example.
I think that Kyron Williams can hang
onto the job. Now, will they add competition to this backfield this off season? Yes, almost
certainly. However, does that look like going after Josh Jacobs in free agency? No, I don't
believe that. So Kyron, I am very bullish on, but yet at the same time, like, yeah, there's a path
to be able to try and capitalize on this because you spent a fourth
round rookie draft pick on Kyron Williams and you held on to him all last year or you picked him up
off of waivers in your dynasty league and you got the running back two on a points per game basis
this past year but at the same time have you looked at dynasty running back rankings recently
it gets pretty gross once you get past the top five, really. So it's like, who are you going to sell Kyron Williams for? Unless it is you're stacked at running back,
you have Kyron Williams as your RB three or RB four, and you want to go after one of the top
name wide receivers that I'm okay with, but otherwise like, who are you selling him for?
Yeah. And I think it's important to know, like, even if we feel relatively confident about his floor his dynasty floor
relative to running backs um i've written a lot about this holding running backs this time of
year is terrifying and so he still has he still has a lot of risk because of the position that
he plays because of the draft capital but i would agree with you like that's why he's a top 12
running back is because there's not 12 running backs
who you feel better about.
And I think he deserves it.
He earned it, and I would expect
that he's going to keep that role for as long as
he can stay healthy and McVay stays there.
Let's take one more short break, and then I want
to change gears and get over to Wide
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right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. Okay, Kyle, so we just talked about your
top five picks in a one quarterback league, your top five non-QBs in this rookie class.
Undoubtedly, Jackson Smith and Jigba would have been on that list last year. For most people,
he may have been at the top of that list. The rookie year didn't go exceptionally well. He
didn't have a game with eight targets. He didn't have a game with 70 yards. There's plenty of
excuses to make for him. He's playing alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. We've seen first
round rookie wide receivers not be elite in their first year and still turn into very good wide receivers. But it was basically one year of production in college. We get, I think, week one,
week two, week three, Tyler Lockett's still on the roster. JSN's still seeing a 15% target share.
There's a real risk that his value could plummet faster than you would think
for a guy that had his pedigree. I've got him right now at wide receiver 20, which is a downgrade
from where I had him at the beginning of last season. How are you feeling about him? And is it
just, if you, if you have him rostered, you're hoping Tyler Lockett gets cut. Yeah. I think that
we can probably set a auto reminder for both of us like dynasty by low right
about Jackson Smith and Jigba in week three of 2024 right like I think that we could already set
that because yes I think that if title locket that's the big that's the big hinge point for
Jackson Smith and Jigba is if title locket is on this roster going into week one of this next
season if he is then it's, very difficult to see a path
where Jackson Smith and Jigba returns value
or how he doesn't lose value, excuse me,
on going into this next year.
So I've got JSN at wide receiver 24 in Dynasty rankings.
I think that he is someone that you're hoping in 2025,
at least, that that title locket is officially moved on from and it's DK and it's
Jackson Smith and Jigba but then you also have like Geno Smith regressed in a big way this past
year and I think that all of us kind of looked at Geno the prior year and we're like okay that's
great that's a fantastic storyline I don't know if I can see that continuing and being the case
right that standard moving forward so he regressed a little bit and can he support three
fantasy wide receivers along with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet out of the backfield like
I just don't see that happening so JSN yeah I think that 2025 is when we have to probably wait
and fantasy managers dynasty managers are not patient people as a whole so if you can go out
and you can acquire Jackson Smith and Jigba this next season, then I think that that's worth doing. But if you've got him right now, you've got to be playing
the long game because or waiting and hoping that Tyler Lockett is playing somewhere else in 2024.
I don't know if you have your rankings right in front of you, but just if not, let's just go gut
feel. I'm going to run through some names from his own draft class. And I want to know how you feel about JSN.
So JSN versus Puka.
Oh, that's Puka.
I've got Puka at wide receiver eight.
Right.
I'm just making sure.
JSN versus Tank.
That one, I would probably still go JSN.
I've got them very close within the same tier, though.
JSN versus Addison.
I would go, I've got Jackson Smith and Jigba at 24 jordan addison at 25 tank
dell at 26 jsn versus rishi rice i've got rishi rice at 22 so a little bit higher okay so yeah
so he's he's basically your uh zay flowers the last one uh zay i've got it 23 literally this is
not intentional in any way shape or form i didn't realize this until you pointed it out but literally
22 23 24 25 26 are all from that same draft class.
So he'd be your wide receiver for in the class right now, which again, we've so we've both downgraded him just a little bit.
And everybody's going to downgrade him a lot if we get a month into the season and his profile looks like it did last season.
And you're right. It probably would be a good time to buy low as long as you can buy low enough. Let's get a little bit older wide receiver here.
Chris Godwin.
He's my wide receiver 27.
He's a guy who has shown us top 12 upside in the past.
Very uncertain situation right now in Tampa.
Mike Evans.
That sounds like Tampa had a deadline earlier this week.
If they were going to resign him, that deadline has passed.
They've now accumulated some dead cap charges.
I thought up until this week,
Mike Evans is going to stay in Tampa.
There's no way they're letting him go.
Now I'm leaning more towards
it's 60-40 that he's going somewhere else.
Baker Mayfield, not yet resigned.
They don't currently have
a quarterback on that roster.
But let's assume for a moment
that Evans is gone
and Mayfield's the
starter or they've got someone of mayfield's quality but godwin's the clear number one do
you still believe this is a guy with top 12 upside on a year-to-year basis and as a guy who's going
to be 28 years old where does that mean we should rank him in dynasty okay so do i think that he has
top 12 upside based purely on his talent yes i. I think that Chris Godwin is an incredibly talented wide receiver.
I've had Chris Godwin very high in dynasty rankings since he came out of Penn State.
Absolutely loved his tape at that point and was really believing in him after his rookie
season and didn't really do a whole lot.
But then year two, he took that jump.
From a talent perspective, yes.
Situation surrounding him, I think that those days are gone now. Right. I think that the Tom Brady days of them airing it out seven hundred and thirty times per season and that of test what the market is for him, what other teams are offering him and see if they can bring him back.
But you got a lot of other pending free agents here in Tampa Bay that you've got to figure out what to do with primarily Baker Mayfield.
Right. So if Baker isn't back, then are you looking at Kyle Trask as your starting quarterback that is going to be feeding Chris Godwin targets this next year?
If so, I'm not in on that. I will have Chris Godwin. I'll drop him like a rock in dynasty ranking. So yeah,
I think that the days of him being this top 12 contributor and someone that I'm very,
very excited to roster going into each season. I think that those days might be behind us.
There are a couple of other options. If Baker goes somewhere else, we don't know where Kirk
Cousins is going to be playing and we expect Russell Wilson's going to be available. So there's a couple of, I guess, parachutes that could save
Goblin, but I think the important thing to recognize is that as you turn into a 28- or
29-year-old wide receiver, we get to the point to where that next year projection matters a lot
more. It gets closer to a running back situation where it's hard to be ranked a lot higher in Dynasty
than you are in Redraft.
And unless Godwin's situation improves,
it's going to be hard to rank him
as a top 24 wide receiver in Redraft.
We've got one more player here
that we've not talked enough about.
It's another guy from the 2023 rookie class,
Dalton Kincaid.
Sam Laporta stole all the headlines, I guess.
And we talked plenty about Trey McBride and Travis Kelsey. Kincaid is my tight end four right now. Really turned things
on when Dawson Knox wasn't around, which I'm not sure if that's a great testimony for Dalton
Kincaid, other than the fact that he was a rookie tight end. We're expecting Gabe Davis to move on
in Buffalo. I'm expecting a few changes, but they went a little bit more run heavy in the second half of the year.
And with the offensive coordinator sticking around,
wouldn't be surprised if that's the case again in 2024.
How situation dependent do you think Kincaid is?
Or do you think he doesn't,
that situation doesn't matter that much to him?
He's just that good.
Yeah, we're in lockstep there with Dalton Kincaid at tight end four.
But I think that outside of, I mean,
outside of Sam Laporta and dynasty rankings right now,
I would argue pretty much every tight end is situation dependent, right?
Like it's just the nature of the position. So with Dalton Kincaid,
I do expect Gabe Davis to move on. One of the like sleeper,
I'm sleep my sleeper calls for this off season is Darnell Mooney to land in
Buffalo as that Gabe Davis replacement. We'll see if that comes to fruition,
but I don't think that they're going to go big name hunting
for that wide receiver two role.
You do have questions with Stefan Diggs, of course, though,
like what happened the past,
you know, the latter half of last season.
So I think Dalton Kincaid could easily ascend
to the number two, if not number one option in this offense.
And we want receiving weapons
that are connected to Josh Allen so in a prolific
offense one that can absolutely cook when it's when it's up and running and we saw that over
the latter half of the season with them becoming a little bit more balanced and not telling the
defense hey we're going to throw the ball pretty much every single play we're going to mix in and
keep you on your toes a little bit so Dalton Kincaid I think has the talent the talent level
is not in question for me.
He reels in pretty much everything thrown his way.
But the one thing standing in his way
is that Dawson Knox is under contract on this team.
And could they roll with some more
two tight end sets next year?
Potentially, but I don't know
if that necessarily instantly equates to Dalton Kincaid
seeing the majority of the targets
when both of them are on the field.
So that's the thing that's kind of standing in his way.
The talent level is there, but right the targets when both of them are on the field. So that's the thing that's kind of standing in his way. The talent level is there.
But right now you've got to kind of just hold on and just see what eventually becomes of him.
But this is still a rookie tight end going into his second year.
Top level's there.
We could absolutely see him explode here down the line.
You've just got to have a couple things play out in his favor.
How unrealistic is it?
I mean, he was the tight end one before the season.
Sam Laporta had a great rookie year,
but that doesn't mean that every year of their career
is going to go the same way.
How realistic or possible is it that you see
that Dalton Kincaid actually passes Sam Laporta
at some point and becomes the tight end one
and is from his own class again?
Yeah, I think it's very, very possible.
Again, we, I mean, look back at your dynasty
tight end rankings from this time last year, right?
It is just a completely different landscape.
Trey McBride is my tight end two in dynasty.
Guess what?
Trey McBride was nowhere near my top 10 in dynasty rankings at this time last year, even
though the talent level was absolutely there.
So we're seeing so much turnover, a lot of injuries are paving the way for some, you
know, a lot of movement in dynasty rankings.
So yeah, I think Dalton Kincaid, the potential that he ascends back into that titan one role in this class out of his class excuse me
is absolutely there because laporta is he going to repeat what he did here this past year is
detroit going to go into next year completely with you know the same receiving skill or receiving
weapons that they had or are they going to upgrade over you know john reynolds or does jameson
williams take a step forward in this offense?
Does that lead to Sam Laporta seeing a couple targets less per game?
Yeah, there's a path for it.
Absolutely.
So great, great job there.
We've got a few minutes left here and we do have some tweets that came in.
Also, if you've got some questions in the chat,
now would be a good time to put those in there.
We'll see if we can get Kyle to answer a few of those as well.
So we got one on Twitter here, 12 team super flex. flex at the moment he does not have a single starting quarterback on
his roster i think we can safely assume that he was tanking um would you trade 101 for justin
herbert or just take caleb with the 101 oh that's an interesting one um i think that so
in a vacuum if it's just herbert if it's caleb williams i would
probably go caleb williams just because of resetting that age age clock even though we know
what justin herbert is or at least we think we do right the fact that you got greg roman coming in
as oc kind of concerns me a little bit for what justin herbert can do from a fantasy perspective
so i would probably look to go with caleb will a vacuum. However, taking the greater context, you said that you are, you have no quarterbacks on
your roster and you're in a super flex league. I would potentially be looking to trade down from
that one-on-one spot, move down a couple spots. So you're still in a range where you can get Drake
May or Jaden Daniels, but then get another quarterback in that deal, right? Sell that
one-on-one for a premium and get yourself
multiple quarterbacks. Because if you do not, I say this all the time, if you do not have
quarterbacks in a super flex league, you are not competing whatsoever. So unless you're willing to
take a very, very long rebuild approach, um, and you're going to have the one-on-one in the 2025
rookie class, then, then you can pair that rookie with Caleb Williams. Otherwise I'd be looking to
potentially trade down,
still get yourself a really, really good quarterback,
but also get another quarterback, a Kirk Cousins,
a Tua Tungavailoa, you know, one of those quarterbacks
in that deal to be your quarterback too.
And for reference, he did give a little more context.
It does seem like he's maybe built for a two-year rebuild.
He also has 112, 201, 210.
He has a pair of 20-25 firsts and a pair of 20-25 seconds.
So yeah, I think in a vacuum, it's more likely that in my rankings, I will have Justin Herbert
ranked ahead of Caleb Williams when we get to May. But that's going to be really heavily influenced
by the fact that at least a third of the teams in your league ought to be true contenders.
And those teams should really, in my opinion, greatly favor Herbert over Caleb Williams. by the fact that at least a third of the teams in your league ought to be true contenders.
And those teams should really, in my opinion, greatly favor Herbert over Caleb Williams.
But for someone who is in the middle of a rebuild or at the beginning of a rebuild,
100% agree with you.
I would rather have Caleb Williams on my roster.
We've got a question here from Lance.
And Lance wasn't here for the start of the show, obviously.
That's okay, Lance.
You should still go listen to the entire podcast because Kyle said some awesome stuff.
But who is your 105 and a one QB league? He thinks there's a steep drop off after Harrison, neighbors, Bowers and Rome.
Yeah, we talked about this earlier, and that's missing.
The four players that you mentioned there are within my top five over your missing one,
which is Troy Franklin, the wide receiver out of Oregon.
And that could potentially change the more that I get into studying this rookie class.
I'm a little bit behind the eight ball as far as studying these guys.
You could see an Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, you know, Brian Thomas Jr. out of LSU.
You could see one of those guys climb into that.
But Troy Franklin, I'm very, very bullish on.
I compared him at the beginning of the show, crossed between Will Fuller and Jalen Waddell.
As far as the speed that he brings to the table and the show, crossed between Will Fuller and Jalen Waddell.
As far as the speed that he brings to the table and the role that he could occupy in an NFL offense,
I really like Troy Franklin.
And just to expand on that,
I think if we've got five that we feel pretty good about
in a one quarterback league,
as of right now, I feel pretty good about Caleb Williams,
Drake May, and Jaden Daniels.
So if you're in a super flex league
and you've got that 9th or 10th
or 11th pick, I'd probably be
willing or trying to see
how much does it cost me to go from there to
6 or 7 or 8?
Seasoned players
are going to know what you're trying to do, but not
everybody in your league does.
If you can get into the top 8 in a super
flex league, that seems like a good idea
to me. If you want to trade down,
I'd probably aim for six or seven or eight
to make sure you still get a player we think is going to be elite.
We've got to grade the trade from Daniel here on Twitter.
It is super flex. It is full PPR.
He traded 112 and 202 for Ken Walker and Evan Ingram.
Still has a couple of firsts, a couple of seconds.
He thinks he's going to be competitive this year. So 112 and 202 for Ken Walker and Evan Ingram.
Yeah. He said that he's got a couple other firsts and seconds as well. So that I think
keeps him in the conversation for those wide receivers, but it goes back to the conversation
that we were having earlier of that late first round pick. There's no real running backs outside
of a landing spot
conversation that you could make the case for being within the top 12 of the, you know, of the,
this rookie class. So you take that late first and do you go get yourself a top 10 dynasty running
back? And Ken Walker is within that range for me. Ken Walker is sitting at running back 10 in
dynasty. Now, do I think that he's going to be immediately like a top eight producer in 2024?
No, but the talent level is there.
And if we do see an injury to Zach Charbonnet or this new coaching staff, Ryan Grubb coming
in as the offensive coordinator doesn't want to utilize multiple running backs.
He doesn't want to utilize both Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet.
He just loves Ken Walker.
Then we could easily see Walker produce in a big way.
And I'm holding out hope for him hitting free agency or that situation changing down the line. So Evan Ingram is
absolutely like, I mean, it was shocking to see how many receptions Evan Ingram brought in because
I did not realize that it's over a hundred. I can't remember the exact number, but like,
it was absurd to look back on the season and be like, Oh, Evan Ingram was that involved in this
offense. I did not even realize that. Like, it didn't seem like that. So yeah, if you're in this wind now, you
get yourself, you take a unknown in that late first, early second round, and you turn that
into some proven commodities. I'm all for that. We've got another question here. You say you love
the show. You're getting your question read today. That's the way these things work. I am in a 12
team dynasty league that is switching to super flex. And this is fascinating to me because this is one of the things we've talked about on the show. It's
so important to get these types of settings and rules right because in a true dynasty league,
it's really hard to switch from one quarterback to super flex, but I think they're doing it in
a good way. They're only allowing just for this one year, everybody can keep one quarterback.
Everybody else goes back into the pool. So then
you take away the advantage of this guy. He probably doesn't like the rule who has Hertz
and Stroud, and now they're moving to super flex. So you're making that move to super flex.
He can only keep one of those two guys for this year only. And then he's gonna have to find his
second quarterback. Would you rather keep Hertz or Stroud? Oh man, this is tough because I've
literally got them back to back in dynasty rankings. I've got Hertz at four and I've got
Stroud at five. I think the concern for Hertz is with the regression that we saw here from him
this past year, or I would say, I would argue return to the mean, not necessarily like a true
regression. I think that this is more of who
Jalen Hurts is as a quarterback. I was not the biggest Jalen Hurts fan coming out as a passer.
And I think that the majority of his fantasy production comes through his rushing ability,
and particularly the brotherly shove or the tush push or however you want to phrase it, right?
Getting down to the one yard line. And are we going to see 15 plus rushing touchdowns from
Jalen Hurts again in 2024? Probably not. I think that there's going to be some regression to the one yard line. And are we going to see 15 plus rushing touchdowns from Jalen Hurts again in 2024? Probably not. I think that there's going to be some regression to the mean there. CJ Stroud
seems to be on his way up there back to back. That is an absolute coin flip for me. And I think
just by gut, I might go with CJ Stroud there. And that means that I need to change my dynasty
rankings right now. So I will take the cop out here. I'm always happy to do that.
I will say, take a look at your roster. If you think you're one of the best four teams in the
league, then I'm keeping Jalen Hurts. If you don't think you're one of the best four teams in the
league, then I'm keeping CJ Stroud. I still expect Jalen Hurts to produce three or four more fantasy
points per game next year than CJ Stroud does. So if I'm a true contender, I want those points.
Flags fly forever.
We'll figure the rest out later.
But I would agree with you, Kyle.
I think the long-term outlook for Stroud looks better.
Now, I don't know how much of last year's Eagles, air quotes, struggles,
because we have to remember,
Perth was still awesome in terms of fantasy production,
and the Eagles were still a very good football team,
to put on the dysfunction that seemed to be their coaching staff.
It seemed like they had, this happens to teams all the time.
They lose coordinators, they've got to replace them.
Sometimes you don't make the right picks.
Seemed like last year the Eagles didn't make the right picks.
It will be interesting.
I do think he's probably going to regress from those 15 rushing touchdowns.
I think Josh Allen probably is as well.
So it will be interesting to see
how those guys level out next year,
but both still one and two
in terms of dynasty quarterback rankings.
The other last factor,
and we didn't ask about this,
is how many points passing touchdowns
are worth in your league.
In a standard CBS league,
those are six points. In a lot of other leagues, those are your league. In a standard CBS league, those are six points.
In a lot of other leagues, those are four points. In a four-point, I would lead even stronger
towards Jalen Hurts because I think CJ Stroud's going to throw more touchdown passes than Hurts.
In a six-point, it's just about a coin flip. It should probably be determined by your record.
Kyle, thank you so much for being here today. I've really enjoyed talking to you.
You brought great stuff.
Tell everybody once again where they can find you and your content.
Yeah, absolutely.
Over on X, I'll get into the habit of saying X eventually at some point, but over on X at Kyle Y NFL, and then all of the team's work can be found over at pfnfantasy.com.
I will say really quick, Joey Wright is in the chat.
He said, love the show, the progression of Kyle's background.
Jerseys of 17, oops, 17, 18.
Who's 19?
Right over here, I've got a Kadarius Tony Chiefs jersey.
No, you don't.
I'm just kidding.
You know, I really thought you were really going to pump yourself up there
because the other thing Joey said in the chat was that we had a major guest upgrade over Tuesday
when Joey was the guest.
And, Joey, that's not true. We love you every bit upgrade over Tuesday when Joey was the guest. And Joey,
that's not true. We love you every bit as much. And we love the listeners. Thank you guys for
being a part of this, allowing us to get to two shows per week. We will talk to you next Tuesday.