Fantasy Football Today - A Loaded Sophomore WR Class? (02/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: February 27, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave look like budding stars, but who else can we add to that group for the 2022 wide receiver crop? Christian Watson? George Pickens? Jameson Williams? Jamey and Heath give their overall assessment of the class (1:45) and we have some fun facts and trivia (5:30), plus the significance of a 900 yard season by a rookie WR (12:25) ... News and notes (14:25) and then it's back to the sophomore WRs. Jamey and Heath give their top four (18:30) and their next four (23:00). It starts to get tricky as we debate Treylon Burks vs. Pickens vs. Jahan Dotson and so on ... Who has the most upside in this class (31:10)? Most bust potential (31:40)? How do the dynasty rankings differ from the redraft rankings (33:15)? Who are some sleepers (34:50)? And we finish the show with a long discussion about quarterback play and how it relates to these WRs (39:50) ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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No, I can. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. It's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. We had three top 10 sophomore wide receivers in 2022. They were Amandra St. Brown, Jalen Waddell, and Devontae Smith. On a per-game basis, we had four top 15 sophomore wide receivers,

those three plus Jamar Chase. So we often do see great breakout seasons from year two wide receivers. Will that be the case in 2023? Welcome to the show as we talk about this group. I'm Adam Azer. I'm joined by Jamie Eisenberg and Heath Cummings. Jamie has a t-shirt that says, Go Away. Was it that kind of weekend, Jamie? No, it was a great weekend. It was more just related to you.

But I do want to applaud you. That might have been your best intro ever. It was well thought out. It was about what the show is. You didn't stumble over your words. I did stumble over my words, actually. You did a good job. Thank you.

It's compelling, right, Heath? I mean, this is a compelling topic. A lot of good value with the year two wide receivers. And they are a big part of my consideration for becoming an ageist this year because there are a lot of young wide receivers who are so exciting. It makes it harder to justify drafting some of these 30-year-old guys in round one or round two. Yeah, and the year one wide receivers, I would say,

have gotten a lot better lately. We've had, I think over the last four years, we've had 12 rookie wide receivers reach 900 yards, which is really a lot. Three per season is a lot. We had two last year with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, but Heath, I'll let you start. What's your overall thought? What are your overall thoughts, I guess, on this group, this second-year receiver group? Excited. I think that we've got a few of them who have already shown us that they have the potential to be elite wide receivers in the NFL, elite fantasy producers in the NFL. And then we've got more than a handful of guys who either have the traits or showed us in small glimpses that same type of potential. There's still, I think, the potential for this class five years from now. We're saying, so where does that class rank

amongst the best? I'm not saying it could be the best, but there's still so much upside. Once you get past the guys like Garrett Wilson, Chris Alave, Drake London, like the, the George Pickens, the Christian Watson, those guys, they could,

they could still all be really good. John Dotson. Yeah. We actually like James Williams three that I'm very intrigued by, um, that I think if they get to get the opportunity for more playing time, one gets just the bump of a better offense uh Khalil Shakir with Buffalo I do think you know if he steps into a big role with Josh Allen that's

a lot of fun David Bell in Cleveland and just the opportunity maybe be the slot receiver there for Deshaun Watson and Taequann Thornton for the Patriots just knowing that there's going to be an offensive upgrade just because of a you know finally a a true play caller in bill o'brien going there you know i think those three guys could be late round picks thordon probably the first one to go but those three guys could be really really intriguing fantasy options this season one thing i noticed is that most of these rookie wide receivers were on bad offenses last year they just they got drafted to bad situations they were on bad offenses run year. They just, they got drafted to bad situations. They were on bad offenses, run heavy offenses in a lot of situations. Um, with, with the year two wide receivers, a lot of them, they take this big leap. They also seem to be on better offenses

the second season. And it could be purely coincidental. Like you look at CD lamb, Dak Prescott played five games in his rookie season, so of course they were better his second year. You look at Devontae Smith, Jalen Hurts gets better, adds A.J. Brown. Jalen Waddell, they add Tyreek Hill. So there is that, but also I am wondering if these year-two wide receivers are a reason why these offenses get a lot better. So that's something to keep in mind as well, because you don't love the Washington offense right now. You don't love the Jets or the Saints necessarily,

but these guys could have just huge seasons and the Falcons for that matter and carry these offenses a little bit more. Well, the Jets and the Saints, you see an easy path to it just if they get the right quarterback in play. Yeah. How many potential stars do you see from this class?

Define stars. Like Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase stars or? Anywhere from that to say a Mike Evans. Like a consistent top 12-ish

Keenan Allen, Mike Evans type of player. Seven. Seven. Wow. Seven, wow. You said potential. Yeah. I would say four. Okay, Jamie, who are your four?

Wilson, Olave, Watson, and why was that? London? And London. And Heath, who are your other three? Jameson Williams. Oh yeah, Jameson. Trayvon Burks.

And Dotson. And Dotson. Okay, so. Yeah, but you could say, I mean, if you want to go that route,

I'd say Pickens probably belongs in that conversation too. But yeah, Jameson Williams should be five. If he's anything close to what he was in college, he's going to be a star. Crazy, crazy good year. Okay, so we'll get into, we have just a few news items we'll talk about.

Here are some fun facts and a trip. Oh, crap. Don't look at the notes. I left the answer in the notes. Okay. Okay. Well, damn, there goes my answer. Fun facts and a trivia question.

Here's the trivia question. Who was the last 1,100-yard receiver for the Tennessee Titans? Hint, it was 2004, and there were two of them. And since then, nearly 20 years now, they have not had a 1,100-yard receiver. Can you guess? I never would have gotten this.

2,004 wide receivers on the Titans. Two of them had 1,100 yards. Both of their first names started with D. Drew Bennett? Yes. And David? No. Derek? No. Oh, Derek Mason.

I knew it was Drew something. I couldn't remember what his last name was. Drew Bennett and Derek Mason. Derek Mason. Yeah. I don't know. Drew, when you said, I knew it was Drew something. I couldn't remember what his last name was. Drew Bennett and Derek Mason. What a tandem. Never would have remembered them. Yeah, Drew Bennett I remember. Those were in there. I remember them, but I never would have thought of them.

Yeah, and McNair played about half that season. I must have gotten hurt. Okay, fun fact number two. Chris Olave was better than Garrett Wilson in just about every statistic, including fantasy points per game last season. Does anybody have Olave ahead of Garrett Wilson? How do you rank those two? Wilson over Olave,

but the gap is closing quickly. If they get the right quarterback in New Orleans, I would have no problem putting... Wilson's in my top 12. Olave right now is somewhere between like 16 and 20. I don't remember exactly. Olave will creep into the top 15 with the right quarterback there. Yeah. I think I've got them both in the top 15,

Wilson at 11 Olave at 15 and either one of those guys, like, I don't, I don't know who's going to get the bigger quarterback upgrade. I know Chris Olave had better quarterback play last year, but he could still get a bigger quarterback upgrade, too. Do you think he had better quarterback? Which team do you think threw for more yards and more touchdowns?

I honestly don't. I would guess the Jets threw for over 4,000 yards, only 15 touchdowns. The Saints threw for just under 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. The Saints threw for just under 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. So a lot more touchdowns. To go back to your original question.

80 fewer yards. Yes. I think Andy Dalton would have been by far the best quarterback on the Jets. But Andy Dalton was throwing like 28 passes a game or something like that. So if you just look at the passing offense. I would say Dalton is probably comparable,

slightly better, but comparable to the combination of Mike White and Joe Flacco. I just thought it was interesting that, I mean, yards per target, yards per catch, yards per route run, fantasy points. Olave was better than Wilson in all of it. And I'm about to do a Twitter poll. I totally forgot to do it. I think most people are going to do it. And I'm about to do a Twitter poll.

I totally forgot to do it. I think most people are going to do it. Well, but most of those were efficiency stats. And so the fact that they didn't throw as much would not factor in there. He scored more points per game. He missed two games, Chris Olave. Right. Again, almost all of these are efficiency stats. And that's good.

I'm not saying that. But you can't say he's better across the board statistically. He was. His 17-game pace, I think he was on pace for more yards than what Garrett Wilson had in 17 games. I don't really know what else to use. I mean, it's not like Olave, it's not like Garrett Wilson was that much better than him.

Garrett Wilson, 1,100 yards, 1,103 yards. Chris Olave on pace for 1,181 yards. Olave's first six or seven games were incredible. Right. Yeah. First three games were with Jameis Winston.

All right, next fun fact. In the last four games of the season for Chris Olave, Rashid Shahid was actually better than him, another rookie wide receiver. The last five games of the Washington season, Jahan Dotson had nearly identical numbers to Terry McLaurin. Anyone ranking Dotson ahead of McLaurin this year? No.

I've got him really close. Yes. I might. All right. This is a stat that I don't like. I don't know how you guys feel about this, but three rookie wide receivers, George Pickens, Chris Olave, and Jahan Dotson,

ranked in the top five in ADOT, average depth per target, among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. These guys were 14-plus yard ADOTs. Christian Watson was seventh. There's not a ton of wide receivers who are good for fantasy with ADOTs that high. Obviously, things could change.

Devontae Smith went from a 14-yard ADOT to a 9.6-yard ADOT in his second season. But, Heath, what do you think about that? Three of the top five wide receivers in ADOT were rookies. They were Pickens, Olave, and Dotson. Watson was seventh. That's a minimum of 50 targets. Yeah, I think a lot of times

you have guys that come into the league and they're really good at one thing and so the first year the team has them do that one thing and by the time they get around to their second year in the NFL they've been coached up to work in other parts of the field. So I'd be maybe concerned about it if that was the case again this coming year and Pickens was really efficient but

just wasn't getting the targets. Well, you would wonder, can he do the types of things that are required to earn a high target share? Or is he just always going to be that downfield guy? But after one year, I wouldn't hold it against him. Okay. Because the top five in ADOT were Gabe Davis, DJ Chark, George Pickens, Chris Olave, and then Jahan Dotson, I think. Does that matter to you at all, Jamie?

Do you care about their profiles? Do you think that they'll change, be more well-rounded? I mean, I think you could see some guys, you know, maybe having a little bit of a difficulty depending on the nuances of their offenses or who the quarterback is. Like, clearly, Christian Watson has the potential to go through a quarterback change,

even though Jordan Love was on the team. And so what does that mean for the routes they're asking him to run and the quick rapport that those guys will develop obviously same thing with johan dotson um but you would hope that kenny pickett understands his offense better which helps george pickens understand his offense better and those two guys get on the same uh same get on the same page and you know hopefully start to connect a little bit better but it's it's a lot of you know, clearly the college game has changed, and this is why rookie wide receivers have changed and certainly sophomore wide receivers. But, you know, I mean, I've been doing this a long time, and, you know, third-year receivers,

you know, I go back to conversations I've had with Jerry Rice and Tim Brown and Larry Fitzgerald, you know, some of the best of the best, and they say the third year is when things start to click. So, obviously, there's a growth process. You're two year two to year three and so as he's put it you know it's it's just the the natural development of a full off season you know hopefully continuity with same offense coordinator quarterback all those things and they start to just improve everything that they do including where they run how they run their average depth of target all those things all right and then the final thing i want to talk about is the 900-yard rule, something we established a few seasons ago.

We just looked at wide receivers who gained 900 yards in their rookie seasons. It's just, it's a great list. It's really, really encouraging. And there were two wide receivers who had over 1,000 yards. They were the only 900-yard receivers. They were Olave and Wilson. And, I mean, there were 27 wide receivers since 2000. 27 wide receivers who gained 900 or more yards as a rookie.

Not including Wilson and Olave. Not including Kelvin Benjamin, who tore his ACL and missed his second season. So I'm looking at their production from year one to year two. 13 of the 27 wide receivers finished top 12 in PPR the next season. And that is amazing to me. So that's almost half of these 900-yard receivers

finished top 12 in their sophomore season in full PPR, including three last... That's points per game? No, overall points. I did not do points per game, but, you know,

pretty much all of them... Oh, all points is fine, but, you know, pretty much all of them are... No, all points is fine. Yeah, you know, so, I don't know. It's just, it's a really good benchmark. It's Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave

meet that criteria. Last year, Amonra St. Brown was top 12, Devante Smith top 12, Jalen Waddell top 12. They all had 900 yards or more as rookies. All right.

Let me tell you about what's on our website right now. We have NFL draft player profiles. You want to learn about these guys? Go to cbssports.com slash fantasy, and you'll see a lot of stuff. You'll see any mock drafts that we do. You'll see all of Heath's dynasty content, but right now we have NFL draft prospect profiles as well.

Those are great. Fantasy baseball season. It's almost March. Fantasy baseball season. It's almost March. Fantasy baseball season is here, and it's draft prep time. So we have a great podcast, Fantasy Baseball Today. We have Fantasy Baseball Today in five as well if you don't have the time.

But give that a listen and look at all of our fantasy baseball content. Time for your news and notes. Offensive coordinator stuff here. We know the Bucs, they hired Dave Canales from Seattle and the Tampa Bay Times, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reporting that they are hoping

that he can bring the efficient run game with him to Tampa Bay. And also Rick Stroud reporting that Kyle Trask will compete for the starting job. Jamie, there was a quote about, let's see who it was from,

unless you saw it, a quote about, oh, was from so unless you saw it a quote about uh oh from dave canales there we go the new offensive coordinator he said this about rashad white you go wow this guy could be special he's got a great skill set that really fits into our system what do you think about uh rashad white i think you know going back to what we talked about last week that i don't think he's going to be the only guy there, and by only guy, not just with a bunch of scrubs behind him. I think he'll be in a situation where they could bring in somebody that's familiar with Seattle's system, like Rashad Penny.

They could bring in somebody in the draft. I think if they want to become the team that it sounds like they want to become, especially if Todd Bowles remains the head coach throughout the entire season, and transitioning from Tom Brady, we're going to see a much more balanced offense and maybe even a more run run heavy approach if the quarterback is a Kyle Trask type of player. So fixing the run game is huge. Certainly fixing the offensive line is huge, but I don't think Rashad White is going to

be a 250 carry guy and a 50 plus catch guy. I just don't see that in his, in his outlook for this coming season. All right. As far as the chiefs go, they named Matt Nagy, their offensive coordinator. Does, does that matter at all?

Heath? I mean, offensive coordinators for the chiefs don't do anything, so I don't think so. He'll be a head coach soon again. What's that? He'll be a head coach again soon. I,

I don't know. All right. But you're not going to change any projections based on who they name their coordinator. Okay. Adam Schefter says the Bears are leaning toward trading the first overall pick. Jay Morrison of the Athletics says that Joe Mixon could be a cap casualty.

I mean, just imagine how excited we're going to be if the right running back ends up in Cincinnati. The Rams released... Would you rather be a rookie or a veteran that changes teams? Like Josh Jacobs goes to Cincinnati. Yeah, I'd take Jacobs. I'd rather it be...

What if it's Bijan? Bijan. What about you? If it's one of the top-tier backs in the class, then I'd probably be more excited about that just because of youth. Yeah. The Rams released Bobby Wagner,

who was really good last year at linebacker, so they might trade Jalen Ramsey, too. Why did McVay come back? Okay, let's take a quick break here. When we come back, we will talk about the rookie wide receivers, the second-year wide receivers, and what we expect from them. We'll do some rankings,

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Visit OntarioOneCall.ca. It's free. It's easy. It's the law. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. So let's take a look at this class here. In order that they were drafted, it was London, Wilson, Olave, Jamison Williams, Dotson, Burks. That was the first round. Christian Watson, Wandale Robinson, John Meche, who missed his first season, Tyquan Thornton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Sky Moore, Velas Jones. And then there was, you know, some other noteworthy guys, Jalen Tolbert to the Cowboys, David Bell on the Browns, Romeo Dobbs had a nice rookie season for the Packers. Khalil Shakir did a few things when he had some chances with the Bills. So, Heath, give me your top four sophomore wide receivers. Yeah, it's Wilson, Olave, London, Watson.

Okay. Jamie, your top four. Same top four. Wilson, Olave, London, Watson. Was it difficult to put London third? I actually look good. I have London second, but... Oh, so you have London overall lobby.

Yes, well, they're back-to-back. They're all in the top 15, all three of those guys. Was it difficult to put London that high? Because, look, obviously it's such an easy case to make against Drake London. He did so much of his work at the end of the year with Desmond Ritter, yes, but also without Kyle Pitts.

They never run the ball. They never throw the ball. Well, they didn't last year anyway. They threw the ball plenty the year before. He actually had a larger share of his team's receiving yards than Chris Alave or Garrett Wilson. It's just they

threw that little fewer than 3,000 yards passing. He had 866 receiving yards. I think there's a possibility for a big leap for him. I didn't see anything from last year that makes me think other than he deserved to be a first round rookie. And I had him behind Garrett Wilson as the second best wide receiver in the class before the draft. He was drafted as the first best wide receiver, and he did a fantastic job in his rookie season based on the surroundings. I think the surroundings are probably going to be better for him this year. Drake London, Jamie, you have him a third as well. And while he has him second, sorry, but Wilson, London, Olave back to back to back for Heath or right, basically. And Wilson, Olave, London, you both have Watson, Christian Watson fourth.

But yeah, Jamie, what do you think about London? I mean, I am concerned about the system. I think this is what Arthur Smith, I think, wants to be is, you know, much more of a run the ball, ground and pound type of team, especially if Desmond Ritter is still the quarterback there. If they have a quarterback upgrade, then I think I'll be a little bit more excited about London, but I do think he's not far behind Olave, but I think there's more upside with Olave

just based on what I think is going to happen in New Orleans. But I could see myself switching those two if there's not a better quarterback coming into New Orleans. To me, London is closer to Watson than he is to Olave right now. Yeah, I was going to ask, could you see yourself switching Watson ahead of London?

Could either of you guys see that? If Aaron Rodgers is back, yes. Yeah, I just don't. I don't know. I may be a Green Bay pessimist. Okay. I think if, if Watson develops into the player that he can be, cause he was,

you know, one of the more raw, raw prospects of this class, which is why I think he slipped in the second round. His ceiling could be better than almost everybody, you know, if he hits, but it's a big F.

By the way, this is where Arthur Smith has, his teams have ranked in pass attempts as either coordinator or head coach. 31st in 2019, 30th in 2020. That was with Tennessee. 19th in 2021 with Atlanta. And 31st last year.

So that's 30th or 31st in three of four seasons for Arthur Smith as a head coach or a coordinator. In 2021, his first year with the Falcons, 19th in pass attempts. And two of those seasons, I believe, were with Marcus Mariota. No. He had Tannehill the whole time?

2020? Yeah, that had to be Tannehill. Right? That might have been the year that they split the season. Okay. No, 2020 was Tannehill. No, it was Tannehill. Yeah. And he was a top 12 quarterback.

It was Tannehill, Mariota, and Desmond Ritter as his quarterbacks. For a game. Okay. All right. So you have the same top four in a slightly different order. Wilson, Olave, London, Watson for Jamie. Wilson, London, Olave, Watson for Heath. Heath, who are the next four?

Oh, it gets awfully hairy here. I think let's see if I can get the order right. Burks, Pickens, Dotson, I don't know. Wandaleale Robinson.

Okay. Jamie? I'll go Dotson, Burks, Pickens, Jamison Williams. Yeah. What do you do with Jamison Williams? We saw so little from him, but we know his potential. I mean, he's a full year removed from the ACL. He's got one of the brightest young play callers in the league. He's got an opportunity now if DJ Chark leaves as a free agent to step into a big

role. He's got a quarterback that I think is a little underrated and certainly has proved himself in his two seasons in Detroit. He's got a great running mate on top of, you know, along with him in terms of a Monroe St. Brown, that's clearly going to take some pressure off of him having to be the leader of that receiving core. And I think some other weapons that are going to be fun,

depending on how things develop there in Detroit. So I, I mean, again, going back to what I said about Watson, this could be another guy that just based on potential could be an absolute monster for fantasy and reality. Boy, the question that hangs over so many of these players individually and maybe every single one is, how much do you care about the offense? How much do you downgrade them because of their situations, their quarterbacks? You know, when you start talking about the year two wide receivers who have made these

big leaps and finished in the top 12, you know, I think Amonra St. Brown, we didn't expect golf to have the kind of season he did. Same with Devante Smith. So these guys could get better, but we're not talking about Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf or Joe Burrow with T Higgins and Joe Burrow with Jamar chase and Ben Roethlisberger and Juju and drew breeze with Marcus Colson drew breeze with Michael Thomas. Well,

I mean, let's not overlook Kirk cousins and Jeff Jefferson. True. True. Yeah. Also, it's the difficulty of talking about fantasy football in February. Half of these guys,

we might not even know who their quarterback is. Right, but how good could it be? Not that many of them are going to have great quarterback situations. It was easy to... A great quarterback's not a requirement. We just talked about some of the guys that have done it recently,

and they haven't had great quarterbacks. Yeah, so I shouldn't have said great. I guess just overall, that's the only thing that feels like could hold these guys back. There's so much talent here. So let's connect the dots a little bit. Let's say Garoppolo goes to the Jets.

We saw everybody but Zach Wilson was great for Garrett Wilson. Not just good, great. Do you want to know something weird? I don't know how you feel about this, but I think Garrett Wilson actually averaged more yards per target did. He averaged more yards per target with Zach Wilson than he did with the other guys. And the reason for that is they were throwing the ball 46 times per game with Mike White and Joe Flacco.

They were throwing the ball 29 times per game with Zach Wilson. Regardless, Mike White and Joe Flacco were bad too. Yes. Jimmy Garoppolo is a lot better than those guys. Yeah. Right. And Derek Carr to New Orleans. I mean, I think you got to say that's a win for Chris Olave,

just based on what Derek Carr has done for wide receivers that he's played with. I'll take Jameis Winston. Oh, I mean, sure. He just can't be healthy. Yeah. They don't even seem like they're acknowledging the possibility that he might be their starting quarterback. So, I don't know. Like Sam Howell with Jahan Dotson,

knowing that Terry McLaurin is still there and you know, whatever else remains with Curtis Samuel and you know, Logan Thomas and the other, you know, options and, and pass catchers there is he going to ascend to where he could potentially go. And, and, you know, George Pickens knowing that Kenny Pickett still has a lot of strides to make with Deontay Johnson as a target hog on the field. You know, those are the ones that concern me more than the uncertainty of the teams that don't have quarterbacks. Cause I think you could

see certain situations where some of these guys get good quarterbacks and good quarterback play. And then we get the boost that we're hoping for. Right. And so that's the great scenario. That's the easy one where you can buy into these guys when they do get the quarterback they need and the offense looks like it's going to be better and all that. But I wasn't actually trying to be pessimistic because I would say that this time last year, if we looked at Amonra St. Brown and we looked at, not this time, let's say right before the season started, okay? When they had, when they drafted Jamison Williams,

we were probably expecting a little bit more from him. When they traded for A.J. Brown, when they traded for Tyreek Hill. We had questions about all three of those guys and what kind of target share would they have. And Jalen Hurts isn't that good. And we don't know if two is that good. And Jared Goff is Jared Goff.

And they all came through. So I guess it was just a question I was at. I know it sounded like I was taking a side there. But, you know, given the success of Amonra St. Brown and Devontae Smith and Jalen Waddell, and those offenses were much better than we expected, does that matter? Does that carry over into this year?

Because there will be those types of questions about so many of these guys. Were there any of the rookies from 2021 that got 900 yards and failed? Is that part of the 14 to miss? Not from 2021. Actually, that failed, in theory, Jamar Chase, did he finish lower the next year?

Yeah, we know what happened. Jamar Chase missed five games. But no, all the 900-yard receivers were awesome. I think when it comes to the situation with some of these guys, there's going to be something that probably goes awry. We certainly have, over the course of history, fallen for this guy gets quarterback upgrade. He's going to be awesome, And it just doesn't materialize, you know?

So Garrett Wilson may get Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo. And yes, in theory should be better than what Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White were, but he just may not have that type of season. You know, Elijah Moore steps up and he has a great year.

You know, something happens, you know, Jamison Williams, whatever. So there, there's lots of things that could still go badly. You

go from good prospect to productive rookie season. The path is there. You just hope that the story, the script, that it plays itself out. Not that many of them had productive rookie seasons. Only two of them got to 900

yards. Pickens didn't have that good of you see you saw flashes you did see flashes yeah you did you saw you i mean you know what jameson williams can be if he's healthy you know so like those two in particular i think you know you i mean john dodson missed a lot of time because of injury you know so and and when he came back i mean he was a touchdown hog in the beginning of the season then he was a touchdown hog at the beginning of the season, then he was a touchdown hog at the end of the season. So you just got to hope that some of those other things come along with it.

Now, I'm sure Heath will push back, and I totally agree. The touchdowns are not something you want to be trying to replicate. You'd much rather try to replicate a 900-yard season than a seven-touchdown season. Those things are just easier to carry over year to year. So hopefully those are the type of things that we're looking at. Okay. And yeah, Dotson was a big touchdown scorer last year. He had seven touchdowns in 12 games.

And in the last five games of the season, I think that was, yeah, he had 344 yards. He was on pace for almost 1,200 yards on a 119-target pace. And he had four end zone targets in those five games compared to only one for Terry McLaurin. He was on pace for almost 1,200 yards on a 119-target pace. And he had four end zone targets in those five games compared to only one for Terry McLaurin. So let me recap your top four rankings. You guys had the same four. It was Wilson, Olave, London, Watson in a pretty similar order,

not quite the same. Your next four rankings were for Heath, Traylon Burks, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, and Wandale Robinson. For Jamie, it was Dotson, Burks, Pickens, and Jamison Williams. Yeah, the more I think about it, I should have Burks out of Dotson. Okay, so that means you guys would both have Burks fifth,

and Dotson would be sixth for Jamie, seventh for Heath with Pickens right in that range too. Who has the most upside? Yeah, who has the most upside in the entire group? Last four or all? All of them. I'll say Jamison.

Gary Wilson, Jamison Williams, okay. Who has the most upside in the next four group? The Burks, Pickens, Jamison Williams, Dotson, Wandel, Robinson group. I'll say Burks

and Jamie already said Jamison. True. Who has the most bust potential relative to ADP? It's got to be Garrett Wilson. Let's see what ADP. It's gotta be Garrett Wilson. Let's let's see what ADP is. Like I have no idea when, when London or Lave or really Wilson are going to be drafted.

Um, I mean, I would, I would venture to guess Garrett Wilson's not getting out of the third round of most fancy drafts and probably Crystal Lave also. Yeah. We could just use the most recent draft we did if that that's easier for you yeah they wilson went round two and a lot of it went around

three uh no no gary wilson went in round three this is the post round three and then exactly one round later third pick of round four chris olavi. Chris Olave went. Watson went in round five. Who am I looking at? Who else here? Let's see. London. London went in round six. So that's three, four, five, six.

So I would say Watson based on that. Okay. How about you, Jamie? Garrett Wilson in round three or Chris Olave in round four? I still think Garrett Wilson has the most potential because he's going to go first. Again, we're talking about this before we know who the quarterback is. Plus, Elijah Moore is a pretty talented receiver

that I think just had a crappy sophomore season that can certainly bounce back and be a problem for Garrett Wilson's ceiling. Damn it, I still didn't do the Twitter poll. It's so distracted. Who do you prefer? Garrett Wilson? Carissa Olave? Let's see. I'm guessing at least 70% of the vote's going to go to Garrett Wilson. Heath,

anything in Dynasty that is different than Redraft when you evaluate these guys? I'm more excited about Burks and Jamison Williams in Dynasty than I am in Redraft. Jamison Williams, I certainly understand. Why Burks and Jamison Williams and dynasty than I am in redraft. Jamison Williams. I certainly understand why Burks. I just feel like last year was basically a lost year for him.

And so it's, it's hard to get real. Like he might be one of those guys that he's fine this coming year. And then he's the year three breakout guy. Um, and I, I have more long-term I'm kind of of holding on, kind of like Jameson Williams and kind of like London at wide receiver too.

I'm holding on more to what I thought of them before the year and kind of giving them a little bit of a pass on what we actually got from them. And I'm sorry that I sound like I'm distracted because I had kind of a revelation. I did not realize how close Jahan Dotson and Christian Watson's seasons were to each other. Oh yeah? Remarkably close. Now Watson played two more games, had five more targets, six more catches,

90 more yards, and the same amount of touchdowns. They averaged almost... What's that? That big rushing touchdown he had too. They both averaged exactly 43.6 yards per game. Wow. Interesting.

Yeah. Well, you know, Watson's going to go ahead of Dotson. Oh yeah. That's very interesting. Um, okay.

What were we talking about? Oh, dynasty. Uh, how about a sleeper in this class? Someone we haven't spoken out or maybe briefly spoke about? I'll go back to Shakir. I mean, again, you're tied to Josh Allen.

I have no idea what they're going to do as their third receiver, and obviously factoring in Dawson Knox as well. But do they bring back Cole Beasley? Do they stick with Isaiah McKenzie? You said it, Adam. Shakir, every time he got an opportunity, he seemed to take advantage of it. He's somebody that I will be drafting a lot of with a late-round pick. I mentioned Wandale earlier, but I definitely think there's a chance

if he could just get healthy and stay healthy that he could be the number one for the Giants and be in a high-volume type of role, even if it's not high efficiency. But a couple others, I think Taequann Thornton and Sky Moore. He plays with Patrick Mahomes. That's right. So how would you rank Wanda Robinson, Taequann Thornton, Sky Moore, Khalil Shakir? In that order for me.

Yeah, I think Robinson's on a little bit of a different level just because you've seen what the upside could be and as he said you know his his potential could be the best receiver in for the giants just based on what their their group looks like okay based on this draft we just did let's do rookie or sophomore versus veteran would you rather have Garrett Wilson or T. Higgins? Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson, but I do him back-to-back. Would you rather have Chris Olave or DK Metcalf? Olave.

Olave. And they're two parts, two places apart. Would you rather have Christian Watson or Jerry Judy? Watson. Watson. Watson. Ooh, really? So I wonder why. I feel like Judy is this overlooked sleeper.

So many good indicators for him. Had a pretty good season once he started staying healthy. That's interesting to me. Elaborate on that. Why Watson over Judy? For me, it's just the opportunity to be the clear-cut number one guy on his team. They're losing Lazard. Even if it's Jordan Love, I think you're going to see a situation where his targets just completely spike in a very positive direction for fantasy managers. Whereas Judy, his numbers were great when

Cortland Sutton was not there, despite the fact that he has a better quarterback, at least on paper, and maybe a better system. I still think there's going to be too much chopping it up with Greg Dolch that's also taking a bigger role and Tim Patrick back too. Yeah, I think as things stand right now, I would take Watson. There's a lot more risk over the next six months for Watson than there is for Judy. I don't

know if it was Jordan Love. If I'd still prefer Watson, I probably wouldn't. If the Packers went out and actually tried to add a pass catcher, then I probably wouldn't. But as things stand right now, it's Watson. All right. How about Drake London or Mike Evans? Drake London or Mike Evans?

London. Yeah, I've got London by a pretty good margin right now. Drake London or Mike Evans? Drake London or Mike Evans? London. Yeah, I've got London by a pretty good margin right now. Drake London or Christian Kirk? London. Drake London or Kyle Pitts? London. London. Jahan, oh wait, no.

George Pickens or Christian Kirk? Kirk. Kirk. Kirk. George Pickens or Deontay Johnson? Johnson and PPR. I've got Pickens two spots higher, but that'll go back and forth. Their statistics were pretty funny.

Deontay Johnson had 147 targets. George Pickens had 84 targets. Johnson had 81 more yards, despite all7 targets. George Pickens had 84 targets. Johnson had 81 more yards, despite all those targets. Obviously, Johnson didn't score. Pickens scored four times. The Steelers threw 12 touchdown passes in 17 games. How about Jahan Dotson or...

Let's see. The next one up is... is Kadarius Toney. Dotson or... Let's see. The next one up is... Is Kadarius Toney. Dotson. Dotson. Dotson or Deontay Johnson? Deontay and PPR. I have Deontay two spots higher.

Jamison Williams or Elijah Moore? Jamison. Yep. Jamison Williams or Zay Jones? Jameson. Darnell Mooney? Jameson. Cortland Sutton? If the report's on Jameson or is what I expect, I'll take Jameson.

Right now, I've got Sutton. All right, it seems like Jameson Williams in the eighth round was a pretty good pick then for Dave Richard in that draft that we did. Okay, guys. Let's see any questions from the... Oh, here's a question.

Questions from the audience. If you guys want to ask questions about this group. From Shadrach, Christian Watson had as many wide receiver one weeks as Jamar Chase. I don't know if that's true. How does he not have the most upside? I think I said earlier that between him and Jamison

Williams, I think they do have the most upside of this class, but in terms of where you're talking about Watson, you've got to factor in the quarterback. We're asking Jordan Love to take a huge leap if he's the guy there and Rodgers leaves. Now if Rodgers stays, then I think you can have that type of season for Watson, you've got to factor in the quarterback. You know, I mean, we're asking Jordan Love to take a huge leap if he's the guy there and Rodgers leaves. Now if Rodgers stays, then I think you can have that type of season for Watson, not to beat Jamar Chase, but to be as promising as anybody in this group.

But, you know, with an unproven quarterback who hasn't shown a lot of promise in the limited spots that he's had to play, you know, for him to take that leap along with Watson taking that leap, you know, you still have to put some sort of a cap on, at least I do. So, um, I, I love his potential. I love what he showed last year. You know, once he finally got that, that chance to be that guy, he was that guy, but, um, that's with, you know, two time MVP as opposed to, you know, uh, potential first year starter.

And I think, um, like I still think he has some stuff to prove in terms of earning targets. Even when he became the guy, I think he maxed out at eight targets in a game, and he did a large proportion of his damage week 10 through 12. After that, he had four straight weeks where he didn't break 50 yards. Yeah, he did leave one of those games, the Dolphins game, he left right before halftime. He was having a pretty big game.

And one thing about Watson, you talk about the ADOTs and all that and how we expect them to mold into better receivers. That is a guy, I'm a little concerned that he will be a really high ADOT guy and maybe a little bit boom or bust. I don't know. When you look at, who was it?

It was the top seven in ADOT. The four rookies who were in that top seven were Pickens, Olave, Dotson, and Watson. Watson would probably be the one I'd be most concerned about getting that ADOT down a little bit. I don't know how you feel about that. I just think that the need for him to do more is going to have to be there unless as he said they address the receiving piece i mean think about what this group's going to look like you

know does randall cobb come back you know does you know they find another sammy watkins type of guy to come in the the receiving class as we talked about in the free agent pool is is going to be very very thin and they don't typically have the track record of going out and being aggressive in trades to get that type of player. I don't think they're trading for DeAndre Hopkins. I don't think Hopkins is going to say, I want to go play with Jordan Love and the Packers. So they're going to have to be creative in some way, shape, or form.

It's another rookie. It won't be a first-round rookie based on their track record, clearly. So you're looking at Watson and Dobbs and whatever else they're going to try it out there and so he's probably going to have to do more run different routes and put a lot on his plate and hopefully deliver and i think like another guy you mentioned adam that's in that group and i i don't worry too much about the a-dot after year one but the guy who just hasn't been able to get out of it's gabe davis yes and hit like christian watson's 2022 season fit would fit very if you just slid that in as the next year of gabe davis's career it would fit in perfectly yeah but he i think he's so much more talented than gabe davis uh and i also love one thing that christian watson has is the number one diva wide

receiver attitude on the field like this guy he celebrates first downs like it's going out of style. So I do like that. He does have that going for him. He already plays like he's a number one wide receiver. But how about this? Just last thing on Watson here. In his last eight games, he was the number nine wide receiver per game in full PPR. He was number five per game in half PPR.

In those eight games, he had 523 yards and seven touchdowns. The touchdowns are really the big thing. He also had a rushing touchdown in there, but he was on pace for a 15-touchdown season in those eight games. Now, in those eight games, Aaron Rodgers wasn't really that productive. Aaron Rodgers' 17-game pace...

Okay, you can say that's fine. I just want to say he was only on pace for 3,408 yards. That's terrible. 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game and 200 passing yards per game. So, you know, it's not like Christian Watson was thriving in this high-volume, terrific passing offense.

He was thriving in a passing offense that averaged 200 passing yards per game in those eight games. Do you expect that to change dramatically, though? Bringing back Aaron Jones is obviously the first big thing to me that says we are not going to trust our non-Aaron Rodgers quarterback right now. No, I think my point is, is like, did Christian Watson really have Aaron Rodgers last year? He had a dumbed down version.

I don't really know the best. I'm not saying he's dumb, but, you know, a much more conservative and much worse version of Aaron Rod. Yeah. I don't know much worse, but certainly a more controlled, balanced offense that they played in. Um, I mean, look, you know, you can also say that it was working for them because that's how they made their, their push at the end of the season. Um, but he was also a big part of that, So I think when you look at what they probably want this offense to be, based on how their offense has run, really, even in the MVP season. I mean, the thing about Rodgers was he was throwing more touchdowns

in the two MVP seasons, and their record was a lot better. So does Jordan Love run a, you know, to use your terminology, a dumbed-down version of what this offense has been, and is he as successful doing it? I don't know. But I don't think Christian Watson is going to get significantly better quarterback play than what Aaron Rodgers was giving him. I think Aaron Rodgers was still Aaron Rodgers,

just wasn't the same type of offense. And he wasn't as successful, clearly. But I don't think that's a – I think it's a big downgrade going from that version of aaron rogers jordan i i think we might be looking at this in reverse like aaron rogers number top three wide receivers were christian watson romeo dobson alan lazard yeah that might be why he didn't look as much like aaron rogers yeah and like watson as much as he did some spectacular things he had three games all season with more than 50 receiving yards he was i don't i hesitate to say he was thriving he had two or three monster games yeah reminds me a little bit of Chase Claypool's rookie season.

He also had the hip injury too, you know? So it's like right when he was starting to build to something, he got hurt in the dolphins game and then really never picked things back up. Yeah. It's yeah. It's,

there were just a lot of big plays and, and I think you saw the talent, especially on that end around. I mean, that end around where he scored a touchdown, just outruns everybody. But I did consider trolling you, Adam, with Christian Watson

stats when Romeo Dobbs played him when he didn't. Oh, that's totally relevant. Like the entire great month that he had, Dobbs was inactive. But I would disagree a little bit because he was week 16,

six catches for 49 yards on eight targets at Miami in a half. And then week 17, I don't know what the hell happened. It was terrible. Played Minnesota, one catch for 11 yards. Week 18, he had five catches for 104 yards on six. Wasn't that Minnesota game, the one where we weren't sure he was going to play and I think it was a decoy? Yep.

That's exactly what happened. We had no idea what to do with him. It was a game time decision. It was like total stress. It was the fantasy championship. Yeah, that's exactly what happened. And I think it was we were, look, if he plays, he's playing against the worst secondary in football. So you got to hope that he does something.

There are definitely arguments you can make for and against Christian Watson. I think what's interesting though is you look at the quarterback he had versus the quarterbacks that Garrett Wilson played with. And then I just wondered, what is more important? The fact that it was Aaron Rodgers, who's obviously better than what the Jets tried it out there, or the fact that the Jets threw for 4,040 yards and the Packers threw for 3,890 yards.

A lot more touchdowns, but even like a lot fewer than... Less than 10 yards a game difference. Yeah, but not in the Watson game. In that stretch where Watson was top 10 per game, they were throwing for 200 yards per game. You know what solves all that, though? What's that?

Aaron Rodgers goes to the Jets. You can talk about quarterback quality, but what matters more? Who is actually playing quarterback or the numbers that were put up by quarterbacks? I think, to me, it's more about the volume. I think if you were giving Aaron Rodgers 46 pass attempts per game,

Christian Watson would have been an absolute monster. How many passing touchdowns did the Packers have compared to the Jets? They had a lot more. They had, I think, eight more. They had 20. No, they had more than that. 27 versus 15.

Yeah, 12 more. So the difference was 150 passing yards or almost double the touchdowns. I'm trying to make a broader point and ask a question. I know, but you're trying to say the Jets had a more successful passing attack because they averaged eight more passing yards per game when they threw half as many passing touchdowns.

No. The Packers' pass offense was much, much, much better, no matter who the names were. Much more efficient, but most of those, if you look at the last eight games of the season, Aaron Rodgers averaged 200 passing guards per game. That is a 3,400-yard pace, rounding down a little bit. That is the scenario.

That is the environment in which Christian Watson was a top-10 wide receiver. So that's all I'm saying. It does that matter? Yes, it was Aaron Rogers, but it was also Aaron Rogers throwing 28 passes per game. So I,

you know, how should we count? How should we factor that? Not at all. Well, again, I think that's something you should expect from Jordan love. I don't know why they're going to say. 28 passes a game?

If they're winning games, which they're still going to have an above-average defense, they're going to have an above-average run game, I would anticipate. You're probably looking at a team that, you know, two games above.500, three games above.500. You know, and if they're scratching for a playoff berth and Jordan Love is not making mistakes,

I can't imagine Matt LaFleur is going to say, all right, here, go throw the ball 10 more times. But if their defense stinks and they can't run the ball, then obviously they have to put a lot more on it. Heath is absolutely hating this question. Well, no, I just don't. It's not the question so much. It's just the way that you're framing it.

And he averaged 28 pass attempts per game, you said? In those last eight games. Okay. And two of those games he left early. And he had 39, 31, 30, 38, 27, and 20 in the other six games. I don't know. Yeah. I guess it was just for the people who are going to say, well, he had Aaron Rodgers last year.

He had an offense that threw for two. He thrived in an offense that threw for 200 yards per game, which is awful, which would be toward the bottom in the NFL. Like every single premise of this argument,

I disagree with. Okay, that's fine. I don't even know how I feel about it. I'm simply just bringing it up this argument, I disagree with. Okay, that's fine. I don't even know how I feel about it. I'm simply just bringing it up. Well, I mean, it's kind of like Traylon Burks, right? Or even Drake London. You know, they were an offense that didn't throw the ball very much. Yeah, and they weren't that good.

That's the thing. Like, Watson was. No. Yes. Watson was a top 10 receiver in that stretch where they were throwing 28 times a game for 200 yards per game. He was a top 10 receiver in his last eight games, and he was probably a top 25 wide receiver in his last five.

He had three great games. I think what he did... Well, I mean, I think Drake London, what he did at the end of the season was also really impressive. I think, yeah. You know, but it all came without Kyle Pitts. I guess I'll work something out. I think Watson entered the league as a spectacularly talented, high upside wide receiver that we had a lot of questions about what his floor was and whether he would adapt.

I don't think he answered any of those questions. I think he still showed us the huge upside. He showed us the frailty concerns. He showed us the volume concerns at times, and we've got another year to try to figure it out. He's a wild card. I'll leave it at that. That's fine.

That works. That's it for our show today. Thank you very much. Check in on the poll results. Who would you rather have, Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave? 68% saying Garrett Wilson right now. Thank you guys for hanging out today. We will talk to you on Wednesday as we look at the young,

not just the sophomore tight ends. We have to expand it to the year three tight ends as well. But we'll look at the young tight ends and what they can do in 2023. For Jamie, Heath Heath and Thomas. I'm Adam. See you tomorrow. Wednesday. See you.

Oh, no, we have a show tomorrow. I forgot show tomorrow, a live mock draft with listeners. At least you got the intro.