Fantasy Football Today - Adam's Bold Predictions! (06/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 9, 2023

Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Stitcher and wherever else you listen to podcasts.  Remember Alvin Kamara's rookie season? Well Jahmyr Gibbs is about to replicate that. Adam's first bold prediction is that Gibbs will be a Top 5 Fantasy running back (1:40)! Dave can kinda get on board, but Heath is more willing to poke holes in the argument ... News and notes (12:00) which becomes a long discussion about Dameon Pierce's upside and comparing him to Travis Etienne ... More bold predictions: Marquise Brown will be a Top 10 WR (23:45) and Jerry Jeudy will be a Top 5 WR (32:30). We've got a lot of metrics to share with you on these topics ... Your emails at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Visit amex.ca slash business platinum. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this? No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

Well, Dave is ready. Heath is ready. I am ready for the show that only I have been waiting for. Adam's bold predictions here on Fantasy Football Today. You know, we saved this one for Friday. Everybody's in a good mood for Friday, so they can just laugh off my bold predictions. No, actually, I think I have some pretty good ones here.

I'm really excited to talk about them. Happy Friday, Dave and Heath. How about those Panthers? Thomas Schaefer. Oh, that was exciting. Wasn't that great? Schaefer and I were going to see that OT goal and make it a series now with the Golden Knights. It's really confusing for me as somebody who has been going through Friday Night Lights for the second time

and crying like every other episode because I forgot that that show is just a football tear jerker the entire time. But they are the Dylan Panthers. And so I hear Let's Go Panthers and I just thought you guys were watching the same show with me. You're talking legit tears? Like eyes are watery, like wet? Like eyes are wet.

Dripping down your face? Yes. Oh, wow. Not like sniffling. My nose is not running, but certainly eyes are wet. Dripping down your face? Yes. Like not like sniffling. My nose is not running. But certainly eyes are wet. Okay. All right, let's get to the bold predictions.

Clear eyes, full heart, can't lose. Fantasyfootball at cbsi.com is our email address. Here is my first bold prediction. Detroit Lions rookie running back Jameer Gibbs will be a top five running back. Just like Alvin Kamara was. And it'll be a similar sort of style. Kamara was a top four running back in his rookie season.

Gibbs is currently RB17 on Fantasy Pros in their PPR consensus ADP. I'll give you guys some bullet points. I'll let you react and then I'll try to explain more in depth with some statistics and things like that. One, he's better than David Montgomery.

That's my belief. Two, there are plenty of running back opportunities in the offense. Two years in a row, they've been top nine in both running back carries and running back targets. Three, he's the best playmaker on the team. Amandre St. Brown's a really good player, but he's not someone that's going to make a bunch of plays. So if they need explosiveness in their offense, at least for the first six weeks

while Jamison Williams is suspended, Jameer Gibbs is the answer there. And he is a rookie first round pick running back. And those guys just get touches. The only one who really didn't was Rashad Penny in the last like eight years and to a degree Christian McCaffrey. But those are my bullet points. He's better than Montgomery. He'll have his opportunities. He's the best playmaker on the team, and rookie first-round running backs get a lot of touches. Jameer Gibbs, Dave, will be a top-five running back.

I think you're going a little overboard by saying that he'll be top-five. How many touchdowns do you think he scores this year? Yeah, I mean, that is definitely the concern saying that he'll be top five. How many touchdowns do you think he scores this year? Yeah, I mean, that is definitely the concern. And what would derail him, not just being from top five, but it would make him a bust if he only had maybe two or three touchdowns. And he's not going to be the goal linebacker

or anything like that. So I think he'd probably have to score at least eight touchdowns with 70 to 80 catches to be a top five running back in PPR. So, yeah, touchdowns are a problem. Yeah, it's a big problem. And he really hasn't had the opportunity for short yardage goal line over the course of his college career. In fact, there are some stats about him from two different stops while he was playing college that are fairly damning about him being a feature every down back as a rookie. I'm excited about him. I'm ready to take him over Montgomery in PPR, no questions asked.

He's a number two running back. The easy thing to say is that if DeAndre Swift can average 13 PPR points per game, then Gibbs should be able to match that. I don't think they'll hold him back, but he split reps at Alabama. He split reps at Georgia Tech. Only had 113 career snaps over three seasons in the red zone. He's only had six carries inside the five yard line in his career. That's three years in college, two different coaching staffs, two different colleges all come into the same conclusion that he is not exactly a, a guy that's in that type of situation. Shouldn't be a feature heavy workload type of running back.

And I don't think the Lions have to use him that way. That's not my case. That's what keeps his upside capped. That's not my case. He doesn't have to be,'t have to use him that way. That's not my case. That's what keeps his upside capped. That's not my case. He doesn't have to be. He has to have the catches. Like, I know he's not going to have a ton of catches. Like 120 catches?

No, both Kamara and McCaffrey in their rookie seasons had 80 catches. So I said eight touchdowns. I think it has to be at least 10 touchdowns for him to be top five. But he's also got to have the 70 to 80 catches. So, no, he's not going to be top five, but he's also got to have the 70 to 80 catches. Uh, so no, he's not going to be a workhorse, but I think, you know,

15 or more touches per game. I expect, uh, well, I, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised. All right, Heath,

your reaction, Jameer Gibbs, top five. Um, I was really just enjoying you and Dave kind of arguing different cases against each other. That was more fun. Yeah, so where do you land on it? No, I mean like completely different arguments.

Adam was saying he's going to be a top five running back without being a workhorse running back, and you were telling Adam he was not going to be a workhorse running back. And I agree with both of you. He's going to be a workhorse running back to be a top five running back. Well, Alvin Kamara's rookie year, just looking at that, he had 120 carries that season, caught 81 passes, averaged like 12 touches per game. The reason it has to be super bold to project Gibbs to do that

is Kamara averaged 6.1 yards per carry that year, led the NFL, has averaged basically four yards, four and a half yards per carry since. Kamara averaged 10.2 yards per reception, has never averaged better than 9.3 since. He scored 13 touchdowns on 201 touches. He's had a couple of years where he scored at that rate. It takes an insane efficiency year to do that. Now, I think Gibbs could have one of those years, and maybe he has one of those years in his career. I think the touchdowns will be the problem for him being a top-five running back,

and I would not draft him before David Montgomery because I think David Montgomery is going to have 15-plus touches per game and score a whole bunch of touchdowns. I think what really stood out to me was the workload that first round running backs get. And I went back to the last eight seasons, 12 running backs have been drafted, not including 2023, obviously. So we have to see what they did as rookies. The last eight seasons before 2023, 12 running backs were drafted in the first round. I'm going to throw out Travis Etienne. He misses his rookie year. That gives us 11 running backs.

Nine of those 11 running backs who were drafted in the first round had 15 and a half or more touches per game. Yeah. How many of those running backs had the volume that Gibbs had in college? I was going to ask the same question. Camara might have. Jacobs really didn't have a big volume. Jacobs would be a good example, yeah.

Yeah, he was one. No, they pretty much all did. But again, this is really, first of all, he's got to have the catches. He's got to have, they've been, like I said, top nine in both RB carries and RB targets two straight years. We've seen DeAndre Swift be on pace, I think like a 60 catch guy. I think he's got to be more like 70 to 80 catches has to happen. And then I could just see a scenario where David Montgomery is simply not getting it done. And by the midway point of the season,

they say, all right, it was eight carries a game for Gibbs. Now it's 13, something like that. And he's just so much better. And, I was really sold on him in the pre-draft process when I heard a lot of respected NFL people who follow this stuff, who liked him better than B. John Robinson and just absolutely loved him. Obviously, the Lions did too.

I'm buying in. All right. Okay. Cool. Obviously, the good thing about it for you is that you don't have to draft them like a top five running back. You're not going to draft them. It's easy. It's not bold to say Bijan's going to finish top five. And Bijan's going to be a first rounder. Are you going to be so bold as to take Gibbs in round two?

Like, let's say round one, you're up. You take McCaffrey or Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase. Round two, is that where you're going to target Gibbs? Late round two? No, I don't think you have to. I mean, I think right now he's... You don't, but you're going to be bold on him. No, I won't.

I won't. No. And that's the other... For round three? It would have to be back end of round three. Not a top 30 pick. Once we get to 30-ish, like T. Higgins is off the board, yeah, then we start... Everyone seems a little risky, unless the top three quarterbacks are there.

So, so here's my question. Yeah. But I think this is like, this part is interesting is if you have an early pick in the first round and you get to the fourth pick of round three or the third pick of round three, like what do you actually think Gibbs is going to be? Cause if you believed he was going to be a top five running back,

you wouldn't wait until round four because you think you could maybe get in there. No, you're not going to. He won't be there. You don't think he's going to be there in round four? In round four? No, not in round four. Yeah, he's probably going to end up on my bust list then. He's right now on the fantasy pros list, RB17.

I said he's 36th overall. So if you love him and you have an early third round pick, you have to take him. He's not going to make it to you at the end of round four in a 12-team league. Yeah, look, we'll see what the reports are and all that. The problem here with Gibbs is that there is the downside, that David Montgomery just gets a lot more work. But let me give you one more comparison because we talk about Kamara's rookie season. Let's talk about McCaffrey's rookie season.

He had almost the same amount of touches as Alvin Kamara, but much, much less efficient. So they both had 117 to 120 catches and 80 to 82, or sorry, carries, 80 to 82 catches, but Kamara gained 468 more yards and scored six more touchdowns. Kamara was the number three running back in fantasy. McCaffrey was the number nine running back in PPR.

I don't have what he was per game. It was probably a little bit lower than that, but that was, again, that was 200 touches, basically, for McCaffrey. And because he got the 80 catches, he was the number nine running back. And that was at 3.7 yards per carry, which might surprise you that McCaffrey was that bad as a rookie. And 8.1 yards per catch. So I do think if he can get to 70 catches, and if he can get to 80 catches, forget it, then he's going to definitely return third-round value.

If there's some touchdown luck, then he could be a stud. All right. Let's get to the news and notes here. Oh, you guys ready for some soccer tomorrow? It's Inter and Manchester in the UEFA Champions League final. Big stuff. And it is live coverage beginning at 1.30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. Our world-class team will be on the pitch for a really exciting event in soccer.

And I absolutely cannot wait for it. I'm starting to get a little bit more into soccer now. You know, got it on Paramount+. It's on CBS this weekend, as I just mentioned. So this is, yeah, this is two of the most celebrated, the most celebrated, one of the, sorry, one of the most celebrated soccer tournaments in the world, Manchester City and Inter in the UEFA Champions League final, again, 1.30 Eastern on CBS. All right, news and notes for you here. Damian Pierce was asked how he could improve.

And he said he wants more yards, more touchdowns, and to have a bigger role in the offense. Will he have a bigger role in the offense. Will he have a bigger role in the offense, Heath? I think he could have a bigger role in the passing game, potentially. I think you kind of have to look at Damian Pierce's season in segments last year. I don't think he will have a bigger role than what he had for like two-thirds of the season where he was just almost entirely the guy except for on passing downs like he was one of the only guys getting rush attempts but if you're looking at the entire at the entirety of the 13 games that

he played like he still had one two three four six, seven games last year with 15 or fewer carries. I wouldn't be surprised if he stays healthy if he doesn't have any games this year with fewer than 15 carries. Would you take Damian Pierce ahead of Jameer Gibbs? I would. Now, I'm usually with Pierce as one of those backs along with Miles Sanders that he's the top guy on my draft board, like a round and a half before I draft him, because I know that there's nobody else in our drafts that wants to draft Miles Sanders or Damian Pierce. Um, but yeah, I, I think Damian Pierce should be a third round pick. Wow.

Dave, your thoughts. That's a pretty bold take. Bold, bold prediction. He is in that same range for me as Alexander Madison Gibbs is in that range too we're talking earliest late round three most likely round four but he's got he's got huge upside I think he's more talented than Devin Singletary I said that when Singletary signed and I still still believe it. And I think he's a talented player who's going to lead the way behind an offense that's going to be better than it was last year. For sure.

And this is the coaching change that they made, the new scheme. You heard Pierce, or you might have read Pierce say it's very running back friendly. That's because it is. And they like to use multiple running backs, but one guy tends to get the lead role. I would not go like 30th overall on this tier of running backs.

Damian Pierce does not belong at 30th overall, but if you need a running back and it's late round three, you can go for it with Pierce. Rather get him in round four. Rather get him in round 10. Adam, can I get him in round 10? No, of course not. You can try. Yeah. I mean, if I'm desperate for a running back, maybe it's a

non-PPR league. Maybe that's where he falls in. I think he'll score more touchdowns than Gibbs. 30 overall is a really interesting spot. I just look at the consensus rankings. That's kind of where right around there to me is a drop-off.

You know, you've got guys like T. Higgins and Devante Smith and Chris Olave, depending how you feel about them. It might even be earlier than 30, but so many of the question marks come basically after round two ends, or very early in round three. That's why I talked about Jameer Gibbs in that range. Because what am I going to do? Am I going to take TJ Hawkinson over Jameer Gibbs?

Hell no. Am I going to take DK Metcalf or Ken Walker? I mean, all these guys have questions, right? So if you like a guy, you could talk yourself into taking Damian Pierce. Don't those players start coming off the board? I mean, Damian Pierce, basically, if you just look at what he did on a per-game basis after week one, because he wasn't the starter week one. He only played 29% of the snaps.

Once he became the starter for Houston, he was 13.5 fantasy points per game, like RB15. That's worthy of a third-round pick, unless you think he's going to be worse for some reason this year. It's worthy of a third-round pick unless you feel like he doesn't have

nearly as much upside as Gibbs or ETN or a lot of the wide receivers that go in that range. I don't want to just settle. If you're drafting him at his ceiling, then I don't know that I'd take him in the third round. I don't have any reason, and I don't think we often say that what a player does their rookie season is their ceiling. I don't have any reason to think that what we saw on that atrocious offense last year is the best fantasy production that Damian Pierce could give us. Excuse me. This offense is going to be bad this year. It's going to be considerably better than last year.

Yeah. I don't know. Last year was bad. Why? Why? C.J. Stroud is good. Is he going to be good as a rookie? What?

Is he going to be good as a rookie? Davis Mills had one of the 20 worst quarterback seasons in terms of several different advanced metrics last year. He was awful. They have probably the worst wide receivers in football. In the AFC probably. Yes, fine.

They're not going to be a good offense, I don't think. I mean, C.J. Stroud would have to have a serious... They have a bad offense. We're not comparing Damian Pierce's offense this year to a league average offense. We're comparing it to Houston's offense last year. Yeah, I get that.

But I don't see why you're so optimistic that they lose their best wide receiver. He wasn't any good last year. I don't know if he didn't try or if he just hit the wall. Or he had a terrible quarterback. But he was really bad last year. He wanted out. But I'm not so excited.

I'm just saying where I would draft him is basically what he did last year. And I do think it's possible he could be better than his rookie year on the worst offense in football. I think this, the, what I would say about him hitting his ceiling or drafting him at his ceiling, Damian Pierce is that they have added Devin Singletary.

And that is a big deal because he had almost every carry from week two until he got injured. I mean, he dominated carries in ways that only, you know, like a Saquon Barkley would do. And he wasn't really, you know, great. And we don't know what his passing game role was going to be. So I actually don't really think Pierce ceiling is much higher than round three. Do you I mean, what's what's the best outcome? What's the biggest upside for Pierce, realistically, for you? I think his biggest upside is what he did in his first eight games.

We throw out week one, he barely played. That was 15.2 PPR points per game. That's not a top five running back. It's definitely a top 12, but that's the ceiling. And I'm not drafting top five running back. It's definitely a top 12, but that's the ceiling. And I'm not drafting them at that ceiling. He's not a top 12 running back for me. He's literally 16th.

Right. But, but if you draft someone in the third round and you believe they could be a top 12 running back, they do have ceiling above where you're drafting them. Yeah. Well, yeah,

that's why you're drafting them there. Right. Yeah. I'm not drafting floor plays. I, and I get like, I'm probably being too pedantic about this whole thing. I just,

I really feel like too often if we don't like a guy, then his ceiling is whatever he's done before. But if we do like a guy, then he has this imaginary ceiling that is much better than anything he's ever done before. No, I mean, look, I think I, okay. I think ETN versus Damian Pierce is probably what you're talking about. Perception would be that ETN has a higher ceiling than Damian Pierce.

They're going to, they might be drafted similarly. ETN definitely ahead of him right now. First of all, there's a comment here. I couldn't be less concerned about Singletary. The way you feel about Pierce might be how you feel about Singletary, basically. Because I am a little bit concerned. I do think Singletary has a role on this team. And he's a solid backup running back. Some people think nothing of him, obviously. But I think, you know, who's the more explosive player?

Who's the more talented player? Who's on a more exciting offense? For most people, that's going to be Travis Etienne, and they're going to see Etienne having a much higher ceiling than Pierce. But if you just look at what they did last year, Pierce was better. Was he better? I actually don't even know, because

you have to really take out... Week 5 on, Etienne averaged 13.4 PPR points per game. Right. And I would say he has a higher ceiling. We're talking about the biggest chunks of their 2022 seasons where they were playing a lot, and that's the kind of role that we're hoping that they have this year. And Pierce was better than Etienne on a per-game basis. He was?

I thought he was in the 12. Why did you stop at week eight for him? I believe for Pierce? Yeah. I said his first eight games. Well, why did you stop at week eight for him? I believe it, who, for Pierce? Yeah. I said his first eight games. Well, why did you stop there? Because you got to use two weeks, two to 14. I think he got banged up, didn't he?

No. We're trying to compare the best stretch for ETN. He's also talking about after week five for ETN. We're talking about the best stretch for ETN and the best stretch for Pierce. No, because that's when James Robinson. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, you're wrong, you're wrong. Week five is when James Robinson. No, because that's when James... No, no, no. No, you're wrong.

You're wrong. Week five is when James Robinson... Hey, hey, hey. Week five is when James Robinson got traded. That is when you start factoring in for ETN. It was a huge deal. That's when ETN became the starter. The fact that James Robinson mattered

at all to Travis ETN with the way James Robinson looked last year and played after he left? They traded him to make Etienne the starter. They saw exactly what you saw. Because he was awful. They should have just benched him. They were lucky they got something for him.

Okay, right, exactly. They did. They got rid of him so they could make, so if you're going to take Etienne's sample size, you have to go, like you can't take Ken Walker's sample size and use the Rashad Penny games. You have to take Walker after Penny got hurt.

You have to take ETN after James Robinson got traded. That's fair. That's what we did. Rashad Penny and James Robinson last year were not the same thing. No, but Ken Walker was a backup. He was a backup before they traded Penny. I'm saying I think it's more fair to do that with Walker than it is with Etienne. Well, just to know what Etienne could be as the lead running back, you'd have to start

with the Giants game when Robinson got benched and then he eventually got traded. Pierce had the job from weeks... When they went and drafted Tank Bigsby, should we look at what he did without James Robinson versus what he did with James Robinson? You could make that case. Absolutely. I think Bigsby is a we look at what he did without James Robinson versus what he did with James Robinson? You could make that case. Absolutely. I think Bigsby is a thorn in the side of ETN.

Nobody's talking about it. It might not be Bigsby. It might be Dearness Johnson. Could be. I think the number you're looking for from Pierce is 14 PPR points per game. Week two through the end of the year, that includes the game

where he barely had a lot of work. That was against Miami in Week 12. Yeah, they got crushed. It wasn't because he got hurt. 13.8. 13.8. Okay. All right.

Well, that was quite a news item. And it's really our only one. Bryce Young has been elevated to the starters, so you can expect him to start early and often for the Carolina Panthers. We're going to take a break. Two more bold predictions when we come back on Fantasy Football today. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate.

It's not just the law. It's a step to keep your team and community safe visit ontarioonecall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right data sourced from the orcga 2023 dirt report all right here we go my bold prediction on marquis brown marquis brown will be a top 10 wide receiver. He is currently wide receiver 32 in the Fantasy Pros Consensus PPR rankings. This really comes down to how good he is. And that is a question I don't really know.

But first of all, we shouldn't act like Kyler Murray is missing the entire season. He might be ready early in the season. We just don't know right now. He should be the clear leader. Marquise Brown should be the clear leader in targets. And we had this exact sample size last year. No DeAndre Hopkins with Kyler Murray. He was the number five wide receiver in PPR.

Marquise Brown was number seven per game. We also saw smaller samples. We saw a sample of four games in 2021 where Christian Kirk was the number one receiver without Hopkins and with Kyler Murray. And Kirk was on pace for 140 targets. He wasn't great with them, but he was on pace for over 102 catches. So my point is Marquise Brown could fall into so many targets and over 100 catches. And like Jarvis Landry and Larry Fitzgerald back in 2017, they didn't really have great seasons, but they were top five wide receivers, both of them. That could happen with Marquise Brown.

He will be a top five wide receiver. Book it. Top five. Top ten. Wait, top ten. Top ten wide receiver. Don't book top five five. Top ten. Wait, top ten. Top ten wide receiver. Don't book top five. Book top ten.

It's in his profile. It's absolutely possible, but it'll be Blake Bortles style. I think the Cardinals offense is going to be absolutely atrocious this year. Their defense isn't good. James Conner's going to have to carry them when he's healthy, when he's not healthy. It'll be a lot of, uh, ugliness overall. And I think they're going to have to throw a lot and there could be a lot of garbage

time for Hollywood, but target's going to be there. He's at a decent catch rate. Hasn't been elite over the last two seasons. Certainly last year with Arizona, it was 62.6%. His yards per catch was a career low last year. That might have been a byproduct of just the offense in general. I haven't done enough research on what this offense is going to look like this year, but I don't think it's going to be anything close to what the Cardinals were doing

under Cliff Kingsbury. Right. Yeah. I've done some research. I would not be surprised at all if the Arizona Cardinals are worse offensively than the Houston Texans. How many games do you base that on Kyler playing when you say that? Just let's say Kyler – like I don't think Kyler is going to be very good

this year. So I don't really care. I don't think Kyler's going to be very good this year. So I don't really care. I don't think Kyler is a very good pocket passer, and I don't think coming off of an ACL in a year when they're not going to be competitive, he's going to be running near as much as he has. But also, I think it's really like, that was a bad use of Azor Stats

when you talked about what Marquise Brown did with DeAndre Hopkins last year because Kyler Murray was healthy for all of those games. And maybe even more importantly, the team averaged 42 pass attempts per game in those first six games. They were on pace for 717 pass attempts. This is going to be, I would expect, with Gannon now taking over as the head coach and a first-year play caller, one of the...

I don't know. Who is their offensive coordinator? Drew Petzing. Yeah, from the Browns. Exactly. Formerly of the Cleveland Browns. I would anticipate one of the lowest offensive play volumes

and one of the most run-heavy, based on script. They're not going to be like the Falcons or the Titans because they'll be behind by too much. But I do not think we'll see very many 40-attempt games at all. So I think the target opportunity for Marquise Brown is not near as high as last year's first six games would suggest. Yeah, but, okay, they're not going to be, just because this guy was coming over from the Cleveland Browns,

they don't have Nick Chubb, and they don't have that offensive line. No, I don't care that he came over from the Cleveland Browns. What I care about is he has no cred as an offensive play caller, first off. He is going to do what the head coach wants him to do. The head coach is a defensive head coach. And also, and we've talked about this in years past, a lot of times if you have a guy calling plays for the first time, they are a slower pace because it takes him longer to figure out what he wants to do and to get the play into the quarterback. He's not ever done that.

Right. Takes him a while to get into a groove. Right. And so I think, in fact, I think we saw Cliff Kingsbury for even first year in the NFL. It wasn't as high as it was after that in terms of play volume. So I think – I just don't – I don't think they're going to be pass heavy at all, and I think they'll be slow. Yeah. First of all – Always crazy, but always fact. That's just an Azerstat.

Getting tired of the Azerstat slander here on today's show. No, it's just the selective usage. I like Acer stats, and I have asked for the official handbook of Acer stats. But today, because you're trying to make the case for bold predictions, you're getting a little out over your skis. I don't think that's true. Okay, first of all, I have absolutely no problems with using Travis

Etienne's sample size after the James Robinson trade and even the game. I don't either. Okay. So that's part of it. Okay. But as far as this, I had a problem with you saying we have to count week one for Damian Pierce when he wasn't the starter. I didn't say that.

You didn't want to hear anything. You said he was averaging 12 fantasy points per game. I never kept no for Damian Pierce. I never count week one. I, in fact, I always say, uh,

don't count week one. I count week two and on Dave stopped. There was a mid season stretch where Damian Pierce was awful. It was get back to back games against Washington and Miami off the top of my head. And I was the ceiling. That was, I don't know why you just removed those. 15-something per game.

They count. So I counted the whole season beginning in week two for Damian Pierce. Anyway, yeah, look, all I'm saying is he is, Marquise Brown is the clear-cut number one wide receiver on this team. And even if they are not a pass-heavy team, he could still get a huge target share and a lot of targets. I don't really know, from a target standpoint, why should I expect him to have fewer targets than Drake London this year?

I don't know that you should. I don't know why you would think he's as good as Drake London. Well, he might not be, but I think he could have even more targets and more catches than Drake London. I can see it. He had a 25% target share in those six games you talked about.

Right. Which, if they are league average in pass attempts, which I'd bet significant money they're below league average in pass attempts, but if they are league average in pass attempts, which I'd bet significant money they're below league average in pass attempts, but if they are league average in pass attempts, that'd be 140 targets over a 17-game season. That seems fair to me. That's not going to make Marquise Brown a top five wide receiver or a top 10. If he catches over 100 balls, he'll be right in that discussion.

I looked at the... He will be. In PPR, he could, you know... What's the reason to think that he's going to have the best catch rate of his career? Catching 100 out of 140 passes is like an elite catch rate. He caught 91 out of 146 in 2021 in a run-first offense in Baltimore. That was the best catch rate of his career, I believe, yes. I mean, technically his rookie year was better,

but... His ADOT would go down, in theory. If his ADOT went down and he just became, you know, a more, like, it's a different offense if they don't use him as downfield as much and he's just getting peppered with targets in a shorter area. And I know you don't use him as downfield as much, and he's just getting peppered with targets in a shorter area.

I know you don't particularly like yards per target, but he has been mediocre too bad for three years. I mean, for his career, he's at 7.2. That's not much better than Deontay Johnson. Right. Who I believe has finished as a top 10 wide receiver. Because he has the ability to earn 10 targets a game. Marquise Brown is not.

I think I'm saying that there's a possibility that he can get close to that. That's kind of my argument here. He could target. It's not like Marquise Brown is so great. On the other hand, this next bowl prediction is more of that type of argument. Jerry Judy will be a top five wide receiver. Currently, wide receiver 25 in the consensus rankings on Fantasy Pros.

Okay, Jerry Judy top five. That's my last one. Were you going to jump in there? I'm getting flashbacks to two years ago when I was going crazy for Jerry Judy. Oh, I thought you were getting flashbacks to me going crazy for Courtland Sutton last year. Well, there's that too. Yeah. Um, look, I, what, what can I tell you about Jerry Judy that you don't already know? We thought he was this outstanding talent coming

out of Alabama and he just has not reached anywhere close to that really until the end of last year. In the end of last year, he averaged 20.1 PPR points per game in his final five games. Sutton played in three of those five, and he averaged 17.6 in those three. I also think that Russ played better, and the offense in general was better in Denver in those last couple of games. I think Judy is certainly capable of getting north of 15 PPR points per game.

I think he's their best receiver. I think Sean Payton does have a great way of scheming his receivers tailored to their strengths. His strength is his route running, so they'll be able to have him zigzag all over the place. Russ can find him. Their timing should be down after playing together last year. He could get there.

He's got that in his profile. And I'm trying to do my best here of not judging the Broncos on last year. I really want to believe that they're going to be better. There is a part of me that makes me nervous, though, just because what if Russ has lost it? And I don't think Judy's got much of a shot. That's the first concern. The second concern is that I think Jerry Judy is rapidly approaching injury prone. And after this year, if he gets hurt again, he probably is injury prone.

So him playing 17 games would be a huge accomplishment. I mean, he could play 10 and be a top five wide receiver in those 10 games. I do think this is a good time to bring up one of my favorite Jacob Gibbs tweets because Jacob Gibbs is obviously the person who has brainwashed Adam into thinking that Jerry Judy is going to be a top five wide receiver. Dave, if you could look up for me while I'm reading this, what is an average-ish number of routes for a wide receiver, a good wide receiver to run in a season? How many routes approximately would a good wide receiver run in a season? together, Judy has 28 more targets, 680 more yards, and 108 more fantasy points. Oh, my.

It is astonishing when those two have been on the field together. Cortland Sutton is an absolute bum, and Judy is a super-duper star. That is 586 career routes they've run together. I think that's kind of similar to how many routes a guy might run in an NFL season, maybe even a little shy. The average number of routes that a wide receiver ran last – this is no good. That number was 224, but that's like every wide receiver. No, like 15. Do you want a receiver that played 17 games in a decent offense?

I don't know. I think you're right about it being maybe a little high as for routes run. Yeah. Yeah. How many routes did Devontae Adams run last year? Devontae Adams ran 618 routes, but that's an elite receiver. But it wasn't a team that threw 700 passes. True.

So, yeah. And 580. We should take the best receiver on a team that was league average in pass attempts. Right. The main point I'd make here about Judy is that on a team last year that scored the fewest points in football, he had a kind of I've said this many times, but if you're new to

the offseason, he had a breakout that really nobody noticed because he played three games where he left all three of them super early, played 1% of the snaps, 14%, and then 38%, which isn't that early. But in those three games, he had five catches for 76 yards combined. If you remove those three games, he averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game.

That is top 15. That was more than Jalen Waddell. That was more than Devontae Smith in their full seasons. So he had this breakout, and a lot of it happened in the second half of the year when I think Russell Wilson must have been on the phone with Jacob Gibbs because it started out where Wilson was throwing to Sutton all the time, and it just wasn't working. And then he just started throwing to Judy,

and Judy just dominated targets and dominated production. And in the last seven games of the season, it was even better. And he had this mini breakout. He's definitely a guy, Jerry Judy, that I am targeting in round five. And I do think he's going to need Russell Wilson to bounce back for sure. But I do think he's got,

you know, top five is really rich. He's probably not going to get there. I definitely think he has top 10 potential. And at the very worst, I think what you got from Christian Kirk last year, you could definitely get from Jerry Judy. And that was a player. I would not. Um, Christian Kirk was top 15 last year, not per game. I think he was like 20th. I do not think that is the floor for Jerry Judy. There's the, there's like, we got a new coaching

staff and a guy that has not established himself as a star wide receiver and a quarterback that was awful last year, the floor for anybody involved in the Broncos passing game is unstartable. You know how many targets per game Judy averaged last year? Well, which games are we counting? We're counting every game that he played. I'll go 6.8, 6.7.

That was no kidding. 40th among wide receivers. But I bet if you only look at the games where he played at least 60% of the snaps. No, that's not a joke because I did that for the outlook that I wrote because he had, I think, like Adam said, four or five games. What we don't know is if it's a good use of Azerst stats because we shouldn't hold those games against him or if he's a guy who's going to leave three or four games early every year and so it's a bad use of azer stats yeah well that's just a heath sigh oh i cut off that sigh um yeah all right well there's a lot to like about jerry judy and definitely a player that I target in the mid rounds.

Let's take a break and read some emails when we come back. More fantasy superpowers for you to see for you to get into here. Oh, great. You were around for a couple of days ago. We'll be right back. All right. Fantasy football at CBS. I dot com is our email address.

Here's an email from Colin. And where is he from? Boston, Massachusetts. Sorry for being lazy, but I'm trying to count Jerry Judy targets. The optimism around Garrett Wilson seems anchored in the potential he exhibited last year, plus a quarterback upgrade. That sounds eerily familiar. I'm looking at you, Heath, a la DJ Moore last year.

What are the chances that Aaron Rodgers pulls a Russell Wilson, doesn't gel't gel with the jets and Garrett Wilson is the biggest bust in the second round. We all saw it happen with DJ more and with the Broncos separately last year. Oh, that you should not ignore those chances. If I did not think that those were legitimate chances, then I would have Garrett Wilson ranked early in the round two and probably in my top eight or nine wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers was not good last year and he could be washed and he could just

have a bad attitude and go into the darkness. How would you describe that sound Heath just made? Like a grunt sigh. Yeah, that was more grunt. And that was angry, too. That was a, you know, screw this guy. I'm putting it in the, I'm making an edit note because I think I got to clip that. Yes, absolutely. We had a little debate. I was doing a show earlier today with, you'll hear it on Saturday, Jacob Gibbs and Matt Harmon. We had a little Garrett Wilson versus Amadra St. Brown debate were you guys on that one

they're back to back in my PPR rankings I'll take St. Brown in non PPR it's Wilson I'll take St. Brown in both but I love both and I do think like going back to the Jacob to the Jameer Gibbs as a top 5 running back and him catching 80 passes,

what does this pass distribution look like when Jamison Williams is back, assuming that Sam Laporta is actually part of the offense? You know, I got to be honest with you. I don't concern myself with that. I have a simpler simpler not necessarily more correct uh approach to that and it is just jameer gibbs has the potential to be a star and they need to get the ball in his hands and they have shown under ben johnson that they throw the ball to their running backs quite a bit so i i'm just really concerned about that. I think Gibbs has a special role.

He's the guy out of the backfield. He'll get his catches even when Jamison Williams, who's not going to be a high-target guy, I don't think, is on the field. Yeah. I mean, I think, obviously, I do think about it that way, and I think ARSB is a star and pretty locked in at a 30% target share or close.

I think Sam Laporta is going to earn targets. I don't know. It would be interesting if they're throwing the ball 20%, 25% of the time to their running backs too. Yeah, it would be. I understand. I understand a lot of reasons to doubt Jameer Gibbs. I think when we do, at the end of the year, when we do a lessons learned episode, I am predicting the future.

We're going to say, man, I'm just going to bet on talent from now on. And I'm not going to worry about that stuff. And the most talented players are going to rise. And I trust the Lions offense to get Jameer Gibbs, who they drafted 12th overall. They're going to use him effectively. And like I said, he is the best playmaker on their team, at least for the first six weeks of the season.

He needs to be involved. They will get him involved. I think one of the lessons learned might be we should stop crowning guys from going from terrible to average and then expecting the next year they're going to be amazing. And teams, coaches and teams. Wait, who? The Lions.

They were fifth or sixth in scoring last year. Jacksonville. Well, right. But I think these teams that jumped up to the nine-win conversation, most of them are going to be bad this year. Yeah, the Lions. I mean, I like the Lions better than the Giants and maybe better than the Vikings. Well, the Vikings won

13 last year. But they were the luckiest team in football history. And that's not even a joke. Bill Barnwell wrote a great story about the Giants and the Vikings. You should check it out. But the Vikings, I think this was, I think I said this. He did the thing that I've been joking about doing for like the last four months. Yes.

With Dable and Nagy. Yes. I've been joking about doing for the last four months with Dable and Nagy. I've been making that joke since November. Yes, there are a lot of coaches who have first-year success and then it goes in the tank. Often offensive gurus. Yeah, but you have to throw O'Connell in there as well, not just

Dable. You can't just pick on Giants fans. Anyway, next email here. I want to clarify. I'm not just picking on Giants fans. It's a difference between going from average to great and going from bad to average in terms of wins. You know, I don't have any problem believing in the Lions offense.

I'm just going to say that. Okay. Dave, you haven't thought through that. No one else does either. They added a very talented piece, and after six games they're going to get

another very talented piece. It's okay to buy into them, and they were a fifth in scoring last year. What's wrong with that? They'll be top ten in scoring, I think. Dave, you agree?

Close to it. I'd put the over-under at 14. That's still, that's fine. That's still like plenty good. And it doesn't even matter. It doesn't even matter for running back production. It doesn't matter that much. Yeah, it doesn't matter.

It doesn't. Why are we talking about it so much with Damian Pierce? No, you talked about how much better they were going to be. No, it doesn't. You think I hate Damian Pierce. He was a very good running back on a terrible offense last year, just proving my point. It matters so much more for wide receiver production

than it does for running back production. I've done the numbers. I've done the research. So I'm not just making this up. Literally one of your arguments for Gibbs over Pierce was that he is going to be on a good offense and Pierce is going to be on a bad offense. Yeah, but I think we'd all agree that the Lions

are going to be a better offense than the Texans. Yeah, that is a bonus, but he's also the 12th pick in the draft. I think he's going to be the most, I think he's more talented than Damian Pierce. I think he's going to be able to do a lot more. Pierce is interesting. I mean, Pierce is a violent runner, fun player,

but Gibbs is more suited for this current NFL style. Let me ask you this question, and then you can move on to the next email if we have time. Hopefully we don't. If Gibbs were on Houston and Pierce were on Detroit, would you say that Pierce would be a top five running back and Gibbs would just be okay? No, I don't think Gibbs, I don't think Pierce would have the passing downs role

to be a top five running back necessarily, but I do think that he'd be an easy third round pick if he were on Detroit. And Gibbs? On Houston? Uh-huh. Late fourth round? Okay. What do fourth round? Okay. What do you think?

Probably. No, half the reason I'm excited about Gibbs is because we've seen this team utilize a running back just like him in the way that we expect Gibbs to be used. Yes. And Gibbs, at this point in their career, should be better than DeAndre Swift was last year.

Right. Yeah, I mean, Swift was very good when he was on the field, but just was not on the field much. All right, this was an interesting episode today. We went kind of roundabout. Apologies. Finish off with Steve's email. Grade the trade.

Gave up pick 1.5 and 2.12 in this year's draft. This year's rookie draft. 1.5 and 2.12. Got Dalvin Cook pick 2.1 and a 2025 first round pick.

I think I love it. The bad part here, if you're not looking at the picks, is you are moving down from 1.5 to 2.1. But you are getting Dalvin Cook. You are getting a future 2025 first round pick. You're also giving up 2.12. I don't love it. I just like it.

So did he have a super flex or not? He did not. And we also don't know how many teams are in the league. I'll love it if it's like a 10-team league. No, it's not. I like it if it's 1QB. Probably a 12-team league. I like it if it's 1QB. I don't if it's super flex. Yeah, okay. It's a like. It's not. He's giving me a pick to 12. I like it if it's 1QB. Probably a 12-team league. I like it if it's 1QB.

I don't if it's Superflex. Yeah. Okay. It's a like. It's not a love. This is from Trey from Memphis. Keeper question. Can keep six players for four seasons before they go back in the pool?

All right. So PPR, three receivers and a flex. Who would you keep? Six players. Diggs in round one. Dobbins in round three. Eckler in round six. Yes.

Why don't we eliminate the three that he's definitely keeping? Eckler in round six. Garrett Wilson in round 10. And he's going to keep Christian Watson in round 14. So now we need three players. Diggs in round one, Dobbins in round three, Kirk round seven, A.J. Dillon or Alan Lazard in round eight, James Cook in round 13, Tua Tungavailoa in round 16.

I'd keep Tua. I'd keep Kirk. I think I'd keep Tua. I'd keep Kirk. I think I'd keep Kirk, too. It just seems like a fair value. I think I would draft Kirk and Dylan before round seven and eight, respectively. So those would probably be the other two. Okay. This is from Frank.

Oh, this is a response to the superpowers email. He's got a whole bunch of superpowers. So let's see. How can we recap? He wanted to start this superpower fantasy league where each team gets to draft a superpower. And I think they also get a weakness. And these can be used against them throughout the season. So here are some of his options.

Yay or nay, start every game with 15 points. That's a superpower. I don't like that one. It's too simple. I don't like any of this. Okay, two times PPR. Yeah, that would just be like you'd get some sort of magic gloves that you get to wear, like the hands. You get extra points for the catches. Yeah, that would just be like you'd get some sort of magic gloves that you get to wear,

like the hands. You get extra points for the catches. I like that one. Swap out the opponent's flex. I like better that you can make one of their flexes disappear. The copycat. No first round pick, but you get to mimic one of your opponent's roster spots for your own.

What does that even mean? I don't know what that means. You're facing Patrick Mahomes this week, and now Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback, too. Okay. I like that. Yeah. Fast pass. This is a fun one.

Fast pass to the waiver wire. No need for fab. Auto add who you want when you want i like that one a lot it's got to have like a you can use it one or two or three times though yeah i thought of a good i thought of a good superpower i automatically win every week i play and i get that superpower since we're doing goofy crap. That doesn't seem like it goes with the – Even more complicated than they need to be. I think it's against the spirit of the rules.

Yeah, Dave. That's terrible. What's with you? Best baller. You can just put your best flex in your flex spot from your bench. Okay. That's good. Two times points for kickers and DSTs.

We already had that one. It's the iron boot, and you get extra points for kickers and dsts uh we we already had that one it's the iron boot and you get extra points for all kicking select your opponents you cannot repeat your opponent until you've played everyone that's a fun one but you get to select your opponent on tuesday after the scores are in what no no no no. That's not fair. Let's see. What's a good one here? Oh, this is a good one. Immunity.

No powers work against your team. If a power boosts your team, it's nullified when playing this opponent. I like the immunity one. Oh, he's got the night goggles when you get extra points for night games. I like the night goggles. No kickers or DST can start against your team. Oh, he's got the night goggles went in there that you get extra points for night games. I like the night goggles. No kickers or DST can start against your team.

That sounds terrible. Why would you make that your superpower? You know, that could be like 15 points. That's like making your superpower like in the Marvel Universe that you can crush apples with your hands. Like it's cool, but you're not going to save the world. Here's the last one that I'm going to read. The Pirate. If you win, you can swap rostered players.

A quarterback for a quarterback, a running back for a running back, etc. Opponent can defend one player. If you lose, the reverse of that, and your opponent can pillage you with the same rules. I like the pirate. By week five, you'll have absolute crap on your team.

This sounds great. It's got to be a limit to how many times you can use the superpowers. Dave, why don't you think about why don't you come up with a concept and present it for us next week? A new type of fantasy league? A superpower league. Can we do some Heath parenting advice?

Here's what I think you should do. If you're going to do a superpower league, everybody picks a superpower, and then they all go in, you write them down, you put them into a hat, and then you randomly pick your superpower, and then you use it. You can't think of your own.

If you pick your own out of a hat that's fine uh that's no if you're gonna do bs like this that's what you should do yeah the winner one of our comments says the loser has to give the winner the deed to their house all right what's your parenting advice heath so i've been receiving some calls and some texts um in the second half of the podcast here um I'm not as professional as Dave and I don't leave my phone somewhere else when I'm podcasting. But my 13-year-old, who I don't really have a lot of concerns about his safety. He's 5'11 and weighed in about 155 pounds yesterday. So he's going to take care of himself.

He can beat me up. Oh, 100%. That's so bad. himself. He can beat me up. He can beat me up. Oh, 100%. That's so bad. Yeah. We were doing curls yesterday. He's ready. He has been asked to go to the beach with a friend that we've never met that is a girl. Yeah. What's the problem?

Nice. Those curls are paying off. He's at a different friend's house right now. How old is he? 13. What beach? Crowded beach? No.

It's a Boca beach. We don't. Yeah. I think I'm okay with this yeah we're going through a lot of these coming of age things right now in this age 12 13 14 like hold on i mean obviously you're gonna get binoculars and stare at him from i don't live that close to the beach you go you follow him obviously no i'm not going you've got two kids that are over the age of 21.

What did you do with them when they turned 13 and they wanted to go out? They did not live – well, they did not live at the beach when they turned 13. No, but they went to other places. They both came here after 14. Well, what's wrong with the beach? They probably went to – what's the name of that amusement park in Kansas City? It's Worlds of Fun. Yeah.

It was like an hour and a half away from us. So, no, they didn't hour and a half away from us. So no, they didn't go there a lot with their friends. I think you really don't understand where I came from, Dave. Like I've, you've known me for almost nine years and I feel like you just don't, there were not like, maybe you went to the roller rink. That would have been the place they might want to go. So would you have, would you allow him to go with a girl to the roller rink? Right. Yeah, that's a totally different thing.

That's a totally different thing. Why is it totally different? That's a business establishment that you go in and pay money and stay inside there with people who work there and are responsible for the safety of everyone there. The beach is the Wild West. The beach is the Wild West in Boca? Yeah. I guess I haven't been to the beach in a while. You better watch out.

It seems fine to me, but what do you think you're going to do? I'm going to let him go. Mildred and Maury are going to pinch your kids' cheeks on Boca Beach. What a night. Here's a quarter. You've got great biceps, Sonny. You better watch out. You know what?

You better ask if they want to go to the library instead. All right. I'm learning a lot here. This is years away from me, but I'm learning a lot. Polar opposites of parenting going on on this show right now. Polar opposites. Heath doesn't strike me as a cautious parent. We just don't know anything.

We still just don't know anything about Heath. It may not even be his real name for all we know. It's not my first name. I did know. Have a great weekend, everybody. Beyond the Box score airs tomorrow, and we'll talk to you Monday. I don know that. Have a great weekend, everybody. Beyond the Box score airs tomorrow. And we'll talk to you Monday. Thank you.