Fantasy Football Today - Adam's Bold Predictions! And Listener Bold Predictions! (06/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: June 3, 2022

Adam starts the show by kind of backing off a bold prediction about James Conner. It turns out all three of us are a little nervous about Conner, but there is still a lot to like. Then we'll go through your news and notes (12:30) on Deebo Samuel, Tua Tagovailoa, the Seahawks quarterback situation and more ... Adam gives a bold take on who he thinks will be the best rookie WR (18:00) and just how good Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance can be in their second seasons (22:10). Plus, bold calls on Dalton Schultz (28:30) and the Patriots offense (32:30) ... We get some listener bold predictions (40:00)! Very hot takes from the audience ... Your emails at [e-mail] and your Apple Podcast questions (49:30) Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Happy Friday, everybody. A bold Friday. Heath kind of told me my bold predictions weren't bold enough, so I tried to make them a little bit bolder for today's show. I've got five of them. I'm going to work just as hard as you guys. I went from three to five.

I also have a lot from the listeners apple podcast questions emails and how heath's mom took beavis and butthead off the air that is going to be a really really interesting story i don't know anything about it and we'll find out about it a little bit later happy friday guys you ready for a fun show and a fun weekend. Yeah. All right. The weekend's already gotten started last night. Game one was a blast. It was pretty good.

As the game ended, the first thought in my head after the Celtics win game one of the NBA Finals is does Adam think this was a bad game because the margin was double digits? I was at the Yankees game, so I only got to see the fourth quarter, but it was a great fourth quarter. I mean,

just the shots they were making Al Horford getting, getting hot. It was very fun. Great basketball up and down action, but yeah, terrible game. Cause it was a double digit. Again,

first, first team in NBA finals history to enter the fourth quarter trailing by double digits and then win by double digits. So good job Celtics. Listen, I want to get, I want to stay on track today. Cause we do have a lot of bold predictions to read mostly the listeners i want to stay on track today because i want to talk about my bold prediction

no yeah it's all that adam today come on i said mostly the listeners plus do you really need dave and i the what yes because this is it this is a shared bold prediction the first one we're going to talk about is everyone's bold prediction. But I'm getting cold feet, guys. I'm getting cold feet. I kind of want to back off of the James Conner will be a bust. Whatever you want to call it. Not top 20, not top 24.

James Conner will be a bust. The more I've thought about it, I don't know why i'm so so convinced you guys sort of feel the same way his adp right now is rb 16 as of may 1st uh 32nd overall and in the last week i think that's basically how long we've known about the daryl williams i mean they announced the signing i think three days ago but i just looked at adp over the last week not a ton of drafts but still right right there, 32nd overall. The ADP is basically unchanged. You know, for me, it was like, he's not young, but he's not old. He's 27. He averaged 3.7 yards per carry. That means more to me than it does to you, I'm sure, but that was bad. They had

the second worst run-blocking offensive line last year. They didn't really do that much to improve it, did they? Unless I'm missing something. So that's a problem. He had nine touchdown runs from one or two yards out. I think eight of them were one-yard touchdown runs. But that's the second time in two or three years. I think second time in two years that a running back has done that because Kenyon Drake had basically the same number a couple of years ago with the Cardinals.

So I get the touchdown regression. Obviously, we need the pass-catching role because he had basically no catches when Chase Edmonds was healthy. But he's a much better pass-blocker than Darrell Williams. He was one of the best pass-blocking running backs in the NFL last year.

He's been a really good pass-catcher when he hasn't had a terrible quarterback. So the more I was thinking about it, I feel like I'm just being too negative on James Conner. But you guys also feel there's bust potential here, right? So go ahead. And Dave, I know you had a lot to say about Conner. Go ahead.

You mentioned his yards per carry. That's just the beginning of his inefficiency. He was outside the top 20 among running backs with at least 100-plus carries in not only yards per carry. He was 42nd in yards per carry, Adam. But yards before contact, yards per carry, he was 42nd in yards per carry, Adam, but yards before contact, yards after contact, rush rate of five or more yards. He was 43rd there, not even 30% of his runs, not even 30% of his runs went for five plus yards. He also had a rush rate. This isn't

outside the top 20 rush rate of zero or negative yards on 17%. We'll call it 17%, which was about league average. There were two things that James Conner was good at. I will tell you one, you already know the other. He was good at avoiding tackles. His avoid tackle rate was 26%. That was 13th best among running backs with 100 plus carries. And the other thing, you already mentioned it, the touchdowns. He scored the third most touchdowns at 18.

He scored a touchdown, Adam, on one out of every 13.2 touches. Do you think that's repeatable? Well, no way. He's also great at pass blocking. I think you forgot that, and that's a big deal here. Not just pass, like things that actually matter for fantasy production. He was elite as a pass catcher last year. Like 94.9% catch rate, averaged 10.1 yards per catch,

and 9.6 yards per target. Over the past three years, he's one of like four backs who has averaged at least seven yards per target. So I don't know if they're going like the daryl williams thing scared me because i'm afraid they're going to throw it to somebody else but he is which is weird like how can someone be so efficient and so good at gaining yards on catches and not on runs it could be more like a situational thing what could couldn't the cardinals see that and give him that role and do something different with Darrell Williams? And I want to say, like, yesterday when I talked on FFTN5 with Adam

and agreed with him, I didn't know that Conor was RB16 to ADP in round three. I don't think he's a bust at that cost. Like, maybe he should go around later. I think I've got him RB18. He's being drafted right about where he should go around later. I think I've got him RB18. He's being drafted right about where he should be. It's just, do you see, because this came to me as like, I see huge downside

if he's a guy who doesn't have the passing game role and once again is averaging fewer than four yards per carry and the touchdowns dry up. Then what are you talking about? I don't even know, 60 total yards? You better hope he catches 50 balls.

I don't know who's good. I was saying, like, right, like, do you see that huge bust potential? And then the more I thought of it, I was like, I don't know. Maybe I'm just being too harsh because Cardinals running backs three straight years with Kyler Murray have just been really, really good for fantasy. I think if he stays healthy, it's more likely he's a top 12 back than outside the top 24.

Yeah. This is not really such a bold prediction. I guess I don't even, I I'm confused on how I feel about Connor. I think what I need to know is, you know, what is his role in the passing game going to be? Are we going to know that we call,

I feel like we all kind of agree. Maybe I'm Heath and I kind of agreed on FFT and five Dave. How to know that? I feel like we all kind of agree. Heath and I kind of agreed on FFT and five. Dave, how do you feel? I just don't see them making him a three down back. There aren't that many true feature backs in the NFL. And for some reason, I just don't see it with James Conner. I should say that in the six games where he was a feature back, he was the second best running back in fantasy behind only Jonathan Taylor. But for some reason, maybe it's an attempt to keep him healthy. Maybe it's just because there aren't that many of them. I just don't see it happening. I think they want to, but for the reasons that you outlined, I don't think they will because he's got a pretty significant

track record of getting hurt. He, he managed to stay healthy last year through the first, I want to say, 15 weeks. Heath, you can let me know if that's right. And he was amazing because of the touchdowns. He wasn't great as a runner. He was good as a pass catcher when he was given the opportunity. Is he going to have that opportunity again? And is he going to be on the field a lot? Look back at his year, Adam.

It was 2018. He had 13 touchdowns. I think he had 1,400 total yards. His rushing average dropped by half a yard per carry. His receiving average dropped by more than a yard and a half per carry. His rushing touchdown rate, I already talked about it from last year. Remember last year, a touchdown every 13.2 touches. This is just carries.

It dropped from one every 18 carries in 2018 to one every 29 carries in 2019. And he missed six games. So to me, that's what I'm worried about, is that we've already seen it from him before, where he has a huge year, everybody rushes to get him, and then he disappoints because he's even more inefficient than the breakout year, and he misses a bunch of time because he has a hard time staying healthy. That's what I'm worried about with James Conner. Now, in saying all that, I love his schedule to begin the year. I love most of his first six games, even the tough matchups. I tried to make the argument, well, he's got to run against the Rams

twice. He's got to run against the 49ers twice. He had nine touchdowns against those teams in five games last year. That's pretty good. So if he's on the field, you're thinking he's going to score every single week. It's just a matter of rolling the dice on how long he will actually be available. And to that end, I would ask you this. If you draft James Conner, and let's say you draft him at his ADP in round three, would you be willing to take Daryl Williams in round 13 as an insurance policy for those games where he's out? And I think that that's an easy thing to say

yes to. And so that does make him a reasonable option in round three. And I've got him as a late round three, early round four pick. There's a lot of running backs I like better, but I think that that's, I think that's where you should go for Connor. I don't see if you take him in round two, I think you're playing with fire. Even if you back them up with Daryl Williams and even early round three, I think there's better options out there, especially in full PPR. So I just want to summarize. It sounds like our group bold prediction on James Conner is he's being drafted in just about the right spot.

I think that, yeah, I just think the question is, does he have major, major bust potential? Yes. And every, almost everyone. Not, no. And I'm not talking about health. He's got an elevated injury risk. No, I'm not talking about health. He's got an elevated injury risk. No, I'm not talking about health. Take that factor out.

And here's the last thing I'm going to say about James Conner. Chase Edmonds got hurt in week nine. In the first eight games of the season, James Conner was on pace for 17 rushing touchdowns, but he was on pace for 11 catches and 843 total yards. 843 total yards in 17 games. That was his pace in the first eight games of the season when Chase Edmonds was healthy.

So if you think that Darrell Williams or a combination of Darrell Williams and Eno Benjamin or something is going to take that Chase Edmonds role and Conrad goes back to being strictly the running downs guy, then I think he has major bus potential, even at 32nd overall. But I just don't know that I feel that that will be the case. I mean, I think he's done enough as a pass blocker, as a pass catcher, to earn more catches.

The end. So then, if that's the case, where do they take work off of him? Yeah, I mean, right. Some passing work. Some running down. Yeah, some running work. Is he the two-minute back? Was he the two-minute back

even when Edmonds was out last year? Probably. I don't know the answer to that. Probably, yeah. Yeah, probably when Edmonds was out, probably. That's probably a good time to take him out, two-minute. All right, let's move on here.

We've got four episodes next week, and we're going to be doing some live streams on YouTube starting on Tuesday afternoons in a couple of weeks. Not going to be next week, but the week after that, I think, is our first live stream. And those will be at 1 p.m. Eastern, most likely. We're still finalizing the details there, but we'll be doing YouTube only.

This is why you've got to be a YouTube subscriber. YouTube.com slash Fantasyfootballtoday. You can see all of our content here. I met someone last night who listens to our podcast, works at CBS. I had no idea who I was because he's never watched the show.

He just listens, which is great. I love the listeners, but he's never seen, didn't know what I look like. So if you want to know what we look like, go to YouTube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. Is he still going to listen after meeting you? I think so. Okay. I got to YouTube.com slash fantasy football. Is he still going to listen after meeting you?

I think so. I got to tell you about last night and how old I'm getting, but that's for later on in the show. Leave us an Apple podcast review, a five-star Apple podcast review. This is the best way to get your question read on the air. So leave us a nice comment. Tell people why you love the show, and then you can ask us a question. Five-star Apple podcast review. News and notes.

Ryan Fitzpatrick retired after 17 seasons, and he never made the playoffs. That's unfortunate. He was a lot of fun. There's a lot of things you could have said about Ryan Fitzpatrick after he retired rather than starting with he never made the playoffs. I was just saying he was a lot of fun. I enjoyed him.

He was great for fantasy, all these things. You cut me off. You did Ryan Fitzpatrick a disservice. There's only a few words in the notes here. He never made the playoffs. Deebo Samuel is going to be part of the 49ers this season, according to general manager John Lynch. Okay, good.

DeAndre Swift looks bigger, according to the Detroit Free Press. Oh, no, another one. Another top 15 to 20 pick. First it was Najee Harris Harris up to 244 pounds. Now, DeAndre Swift apparently wanted to add more bulk. Anybody care about this? It's not a positive. It doesn't matter to me.

How much bulk did he really? Does he look like Najee Harris now? No. It looks like he just got swole. Got some bigger biceps. Maybe he'd been doing some curls. Yeah, you know, two years ago, Dave, and you were really excited about Ronald Jones

before they added Leonard Fournette. You talked about how he had gained weight. Right, because I was convinced that it was good weight. And he actually was okay. And he had a good year. Right. He played well that year. I think the bigger thing is they are really pushing

DeAndre Swift to try to play through things a little bit more this year. They've talked about that as well. And I think he's probably trying to add weight in hopes of staying healthy. Yeah. The Seahawks would likely sign Baker Mayfield if he were released, according to the Cleveland plane dealer. Okay. DK,

DK, McAfee and lock it. Where are they now in your rankings? Where would they be if they signed Baker Mayfield? I still have DK as a top 24 receiver, especially in PPR. I think he gets a large target volume. And I think he's really good. And I think Lockett's good too,

but so much of Lockett's game was based on Russell Wilson making improvisational plays to Lockett downfield. I understand. I think that understand it's gone now answer the other part of the like answer the question i have he's a number 20 receiver but where would he be is the number three low end number go ahead heath you can answer the question thank you dk at 26 now lock it at 31 i would probably say dk right around 18 to 20 with Baker and lock it around 28. Okay. Thank you.

I think Dave didn't hear the second part of that. Tua Tungabailoa expects to throw downfield more this season, and he said those plays, those downfield throws, weren't really called last year. So, you know, he's – he was – I don't know if it's about defensive, but he was a little defiant about his arm strength, which is good. A little chip on the shoulder. Hopefully it's not weighing down his arm.

San Francisco center Alex Mack is retiring. PFF had him as the 27th best run blocking center, but eighth best pass blocking center. Washington offensive coordinator Scott Turner said that Curtis Samuel can play everywhere. He's got to play. What do you make of this one? Mike Kay of NFL Network expects wide receiver James Washington to shine in the Dallas offense. Shine the helmets? Yes, he's a candidate for like 600 yards this year.

Okay, yeah, we're not drafting James Washington, right? We're not. Your last pick in a deep best ball league, maybe? And Giants news. Hooray! Saquon Barkley expects to be more involved in the passing game. That's the second type of report we've heard about that. Sterling Shepard is jogging. I believe it's pronounced yogging.

Soft J. Anchorman? No. Rookie fourth-round pick tight end Daniel Bellinger is running with the starters. Who? Yeah, I know. Fourth-round pick Daniel Bellinger out of San Diego State, and he is apparently, right now, the Giants' starting tight end.

All right. Let's take a break. Bold predictions when we come back. A surprise rookie wide receiver to finish number one. Three quarterback bold predictions all in one. A team you should completely avoid. And who will be the second best tight end in fantasy this year? I'll tell you right after this.

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How realistic is that, guys? Christian Watson of Green Bay, the number one rookie wide receiver. I see what you're doing here. I mean, last year, Jamar Chase couldn't catch in the offseason, and he was the number one rookie wide receiver. This year, Christian Watson can't catch in the offseason, so he's going to be the number one wide receiver. It makes sense to me. Or two years ago, Justin Jefferson stepped into an obvious role, an obvious need for a team that had just traded away Stefan Diggs,

and he was the number one wide receiver. And this year, Christian Watson steps into that obvious role with one of the best quarterbacks in football. I just want to be clear. My Jamar Chase thing was tongue-in-cheek. I don't think that Christian Watson is Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase. He might be Justin. I mean, nobody thought Justin Jefferson was Justin Jefferson.

Jamar Chase is different, but nobody thought Justin Jefferson, who was the fourth receiver drafted, would be anything like this. All right. So does it feel plausible to you? How plausible that Christian Watson could be the best rookie wide receiver? It can happen because a lot of the rookie wide receivers are in situations that we don't love. You can write off Jamison Williams being the number one rookie wide receiver,

at least on a total fantasy point basis, because he's not expected to play the full season. Garrett Wilson went to the Jets. He's probably not going to be the number one guy. Chris Olave, dark horse to be the number one receiver, but I don't know if he's quite got the upside that Christian Watson has. Sky Moore maybe has a little less upside than Christian Watson. I like his fit in Kansas City, but a lot of other mouths to feed there.

So I don't think it's totally unplausible, but it's just hard for me to believe that a receiver who played at the FCS level is suddenly going to step up and be seamlessly ready to be the number one or number two receiver for the Packers and accumulate enough stats to be the number one rookie receiver. I like his chances a lot better if they are done bringing people in like i still there's still a few guys out there that could really seriously impact this but if his only competition is alan lazard and the little romeo um and sammy watkins then i think yeah it's probably uh he's got a decent chance of being the number one wide receiver, although I think it's more likely, what was Jamie's bold prediction, that Aaron Jones

would lead the Packers in receiving? Receptions. I think that's... I think it was receptions, I think. I think that's more likely than this one. Was it receptions or receiving? I think it was receptions. He's been second every year, right?

Behind Adams? Yeah. He's been second. Like the receivers would have to collapse and make sure I get that right. I don't agree. Number one. I don't agree that the receivers would have to.

Look, I look at the year Jordy Nelson was out. James Jones caught 14 touchdowns. And a lot of this, you know of this prediction is based on touchdowns. I think he'd have to have at least eight. That would be a lot for a rookie. But this is Aaron Rodgers we're talking about here. If he can get open in the end zone, he will get those targets. And I also wonder if they had drafted him 22nd overall instead of 34th

because they had the 22nd pick. They had two first-round picks, in fact. I wonder if people would be higher on him. You know, this is an interesting stat. The top rookie wide receiver in fantasy in each of the last eight seasons has been one of the first six wide receivers drafted in that NFL draft.

So it's been one of the first six taken in the NFL draft that's ended up being number one. And it's been a while since it's been number six. That was like five or six years ago when it was Michael Thomas and Juju Smith-Schuster back-to-back. They were the sixth wide receiver selected and they finished as the best rookie wide receiver. So usually for eight years in a row, it's one of the first six guys taken. Christian Watson was the seventh. So we'll have to buck that trend a little bit. All right, go to the next one here. How about, let's see.

Oh, I like this one. This is my quarterback one. Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Trevor Lawrence will all finish top 12, and one of them will finish top five. Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, all top 12, and one of them will finish top five. Okay, which one will be top five?

My money would be on Lance if I had to pick one. Same. Yeah, I would go Fields, then Lance, but I think those are the only two that I think it's really possible. Because Lawrence, you know, I think we sold Lawrence a little bit short on the rushing. He rushed for 334 yards last year. I'm talking about on FFT and five yesterday.

I think we may have said 250. Yeah. So I think it could be 350. Okay. Could be. That's a lot of rushing yards. He's a really good rusher. He's a great athlete.

Tremendous prospect, obviously. It's tough to make the case because of the receiving core. I only found one top five quarterback in the last five seasons that did not have a 1,000-yard receiver and did not rush for 400 yards.

That was Carson Wentz in 2017 when he had that crazy touchdown season. He was QB5 in only 13 games. You can't really find a lot of guys who don't rush for 400 who was his coach hey great point great point doug peterson um that was back when doug peterson's good offense was still good in the nfl though it's true yeah so so trey lance in his uh in his two and a half games, he was really good in two of them. He was 23.1 points in one start, 24.4 points in a half,

and then he had 14.6 points in week five in his first career start. Justin Fields, in his last four starts, he scored 27, 20, 22, and 19 fantasy points. Not decimal scoring, but that's three start-worthy games, one great game. And Trevor Lawrence, I can't really point to much, but he got, he got better as the year went on, I guess. He's Trevor Lawrence. So they're all going to be top 12 and one of them is going to be top five.

Pretty bold, right? Yeah, I think that's bold. And you know, if you're going to start predicting the older quarterback starting to either decline or get hurt, you can make the case for them being in the top 12 a little bit easier. The reports out of San Francisco say that Lance has been accurate and that he's had some really good OTAs and he's really starting to grow into the

offense a little bit more. And it was, it was never the rushing. That was the issue with them. It's the accuracy, the decision-making, and if he's getting better at that and they trust him to throw a considerable amount more than what he did last year, then top five is absolutely within the range for Trey Lance. What I think is more interesting is who are the three quarterbacks in the consensus top 12 who are not going to finish top 12

because these three guys are all better than them i would have to see let's let's see the adp then it's not i was thinking our rankings not adp but okay okay so i bet it can't be that far apart um watson would be the obvious one maybe watson doesn't play and then they could all be better than him right so they all get moved up ahead you know i don't if Cousins and Carr are there for you, but I could easily see them being better than Cousins. They're not my top 12. Carr is for me.

Rogers. Could see him. Rogers is not either. So, Alan Herbert Mahomes, Brady Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Watson, Dak, Wilson, Burrow, Stafford. Dak. Why Dak? Oh, because no Cooper, Burrow, Stafford. Dak. Why Dak? Oh, because no Cooper? No Cooper, yeah.

Burrow. Kyler. Look, Burrow had two awesome games toward the end of the year. And it was otherwise just meh. Kyler's gonna run too much, but Kyler without Hopkins for six games. I mean, that's the thing. I like all these guys better, but I'm definitely drafting one top 12 guy.

You can get one of them and one of the quarterbacks. It's going to be my strategy. I'm taking a stud, a proven stud, and one of these three second-year guys. Begs the question, what do you do when both of your quarterbacks are good? Jamie's called me out on it countless times. I don't mind doing it in the mock drafts that we do. You keep him away from another team. I think it's such a ridiculous – I mean, he calls me out on it too.

I think it's ridiculous. You don't just pass over potentially league-winning players because you already have a quarterback. It's a ridiculous philosophy. To take the handcuff running back the, the, the theoretical handcuff running back. You're going to drop in three weeks.

This is ridiculous. Anyway, speaking of Trevor Lawrence, did you guys see that James Robinson is running in a straight line? It's good. And that's a huge factor for Lawrence. If they, if they're able to run the ball,

well, that takes work off of Lawrence, which I'm sure the Jaguars would love. But as a fantasy manager, I want Lawrence to throw 600 times this year. And if they can't run the ball, if Robinson isn't ready, and if ETN is ineffective on inside handoffs and stuff like that, then I think Lawrence can hit 600 attempts. And I would love to see what his numbers look like uh in a like a workable nfl offense that prepares its players the right way if he's getting 600 divided by 17 pass attempts per game let me go to the next one here by the way just a little news coming across the app here

zach wilson inaccurate in otas next oh that's, next, next. Dalton Schultz is tight end too. When I look at the... What's so funny? Not bold? No, no. The 600 pass attempt Trevor Lawrence thing. I was trying to think how many passes he threw last year. Does anybody know?

Was it more? 600? 602. Okay. But you know that offense was a total mess. The receivers were a total mess. When Laquan Treadwell is your best wide receiver, you know that your offense is a mess. And they were totally unprepared.

All right, guys. Come on. Dalton Schultz. Sorry. Dalton Schultz tied in, too. I kind of like this one. Go ahead. Oh. Come on. Dalton Schultz. Sorry. Dalton Schultz, tight end, too. I kind of like this one. Go ahead. Oh.

Go ahead. There have been a lot of very important, impactful offseason moves. Tyreek Hill and Devonta Adams getting traded. Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. Amari Cooper going to Cleveland and not really being replaced in Dallas is enormous. We don't talk about it.

We do talk about it a lot, but maybe not in the same breath as like the Devontae Adams move. But I think this is enormous for a team that has been so pass heavy under Kellen Moore. That's been a top six scoring offense in two of the three seasons that Kellen Moore has had. The two seasons where Kellen Moore's been the coordinator and Dak Prescott stayed healthy.

So, I mean, they're going to throw a lot. They're probably going to score a lot. And, you know, Dalton Schultz was good last year. He was number five per game, I believe, maybe number six per game. Number five. And, you know, I think it could be even better. I think, you know, I don't have to go into it more. It's just more target opportunities for a player who was solid last year and should be in an offense that really supports him. There you go. Dalton Schultz.

So they were Dave. He had a 16% target share on the season, but if you take out the games minus Gallup, Cooper or lamb and throw week 18 out, because that was one where like the Eagles didn't bother showing up. If you take out the games minus Gallup, Cooper, or Lamb, and throw week 18 out because that was one where the Eagles didn't bother showing up, his target share was closer to 18%. So a little bit better without those guys. But the stat that makes me encouraged about Schultz, in those nine games without one of Gallup, Cooper, or Lamb,

he averaged 12.1 PPR points per game. That's really good for a tight end. There's no reason to believe. Where would that rank? Yeah, I can find out for you. 12 point, what did you say? I got it, I got it. 12.1 would have been tight end five,

which is actually what he was last year. So not that much better than what was what was the overall 10.1? Is that what I'm looking at? No, we have different numbers. I'm sorry to grind this to a halt. He averaged 11.8. So just a little bit better.

I guess it was just a little bit better. I don't know. He was obviously better. He was better. He was. Cause his games without, obviously the average would be lower. He was more consistent. He had, he was better. He was. Because his games without, obviously, the average would be lower. He was more consistent. He was better.

And he had also eight or more targets, maybe seven or more targets in four of their last five games, including the postseason. So I think he's a big part of the offense. And he is definitely my, I would say right now, Dalton Schultz is my fallback option at tight end. It's a great way to put it. But I actually think that he might just be my fallback option at tight end uh if I don't get one of those top five but I actually think that he might just be my number one option at tight end if I can get him

in say round seven and then I can spend my first five picks on on the other positions so do you think that Travis Kelsey is going to get hurt or Mark Andrews is going I think Mark no I don't I think I look it's Andrews it's Andrews. It's Andrews. It's the Ravens throwing the ball a lot less. It's Dalton Schultz having 15 to 20 more catches than Mark Andrews. It's not something I actually believe. This is a bold prediction. I'm just looking forward to who's the mediocre tight end next year. Andrews is more likely to fall off than Kelsey, even though he's younger.

Right, but if Andrews goes back to what he was... Oh, no, there's no question. That's still really good. He's still probably better than Schultz. But he's not going to be 17 PPR points per game.

Yeah, I mean, I think... Yeah, I don't know. Look, obviously, I like Mark Andrews better, but, you know, just being bold here, I could just see a much better... a great year for Schultz. I was going to say tight end three, but that's not really that bold.

I don't think that's that bold. Right, tight end three is not that bold. Tight end two is bold. So, okay. Last prediction is that no Patriots player except for their kicker, Nick Folk, and maybe their DST if that's a player, finishes as a fantasy starter. No top 12 quarterback, no top 12 tight end,

no top 24 running back, no top 36 wide receiver for the New England Patriots. So just exactly the way that we all have it ranked. I got Harris 24. For all of that to happen is bold. Like for every component of that. That's why I saved it for last. It's not that but how about i'm not really looking to draft any patriots there you go is damian harris the younger by only a little bit but younger version of james connor you're drafting him

hoping that he scores double digit touchdowns no because there's no there's no hope that in the passing game a good pass catching role and there is a hope like it might not happen but there's a hope with connor there's a chance connor could be a top five running back that chance doesn't exist for harris unless he scores 18 touchdowns i'm yeah i'm terrified of damian harris like i he's steven, and they just keep drafting running backs, and they're the Patriots. What round? When would you take him? I don't have him in my first eight rounds.

Wow. That's in full PPR. And I pretty much completely agree. The other thing is that we always talk about the catches, but after Damian Harris got hurt in week nine, I've said this before, but he and Ramondre Stevenson, from that point on,

they only played five games together in which they were both healthy, neither left with an injury. And Stevenson had two more carries than Harris. They were pretty much 50-50. Well, literally, 52 carries for Stevenson, 50 for Harris. So if Stevenson has a role...

But who was working in the high-value situation? I think they both were. And neither of them was really catching the ball because Harris had eight catches in those five games and Stevenson had six. Now, Harris had four touchdowns and Stevenson had two, but still, Dave, you're talking about 10 carries per game and one catch per game.

I mean, that is a fantasy recipe for disaster. You know, it probably won't be that bad, but if Stevenson has the same type of role where he's almost 50-50 with Damian Harris and neither of them is the passing downs guy because James White is back and they like their rookie, then this is, yeah, this is a tough one. Devontae Parker, I think, has a good chance to be top 36,

but, you know, whatever. He won't be impactful. I've got Harris with 60 snaps on three or fewer yards to go. Stevenson with 32. Harris was better converting those snaps or those carries. He was at almost 80%. Stevenson was at almost 70%. They're both good.

Goal-to-go carries, 73% for Harris, 60% for Stevenson. That's success rate, you're saying? Yeah. I would imagine that Harris will have that role to begin the year and probably won't lose it unless obvious stuff, fumbling, injuries. So that's what keeps him afloat for me as a a settle for number two running back where you're just you're in around six plus and you just say okay i need somebody he can be your i'm getting called out here from dan g how is that bold adam's mango salsa takes today lol

i acknowledge the patriots one isn't really that bold. I think the other ones are pretty bold. Well, except the Connor one, which I backed off. But the three of them, Christian Watson, top rookie, those three quarterbacks, and finishing top 12, one top five, and then Dalton Schultz, tight end two. I respectfully disagree, Danji. I was plenty bold today.

60% as bold as my colleagues. I want to see you go full circle or full 180 on Connor and say he's going to be a top five running back. I'll never say that. The thing, you know, the three points. You said all those stats about how bad he was as a rusher last year, and it really does resonate with me. But he was pretty good the year before.

And that was with also a terrible offensive line in Pittsburgh. So they were also the second worst run blocking offensive line. So he's been on that second worst run blocking line two years in a row. So I'm not willing to say after one bad year as a rusher that he's done. If it were two in a row, like what we kind of saw with Le'Veon Belt toward the end of his career, then I'd be really worried. But I think we saw it with Zeke. Zeke was trending the wrong way.

And then when he was healthy, he was really, really good last year. So we saw it with LeSean McCoy. LeSean McCoy had one of the worst years you'll ever see late in his career. And then he bounced back with a really strong year. We saw it with LaShawn McCoy. LaShawn McCoy had one of the worst years you'll ever see late in his career, and then he bounced back with a really strong year. I can't bury Connor as a runner yet, just after one bad year. But, we can bury Beavis and Butthead, because

this is... Yeah, I think we're going to delay that story. Let's do the bold predictions for a second. Oh, wow. Okay. Interesting. Do you want to hear about my experience as an old man last night? Yes. Okay.

You tell me what you would have done. So I went to the Yankees game last night. I had a great time. It was a really good game. It was 0-0 going into the eighth inning. And for the Yankees, Jamison Tyone was pitching a perfect game through seven innings. Obviously, that's very, very rare. Hasn't happened in a long time.

And he gave up a hit in the eighth, and then he gave up a run in the eighth. So now he's losing 1-0. In the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees had the bases loaded, two outs. Anthony Rizzo comes up as a pinch hitter. I think it was maybe a full count.

It was really dramatic. And he delivers with a two-run single. They take the lead. Hooray. Now it's 2-1 in the ninth inning. I'm sitting there with three guys from work. We're having a great time. The weather's great.

I decided to leave with one out in the ninth. And not only that, due up for the Angels was the bottom of the order, Andrew Velasquez, then their leadoff hitter, Taylor Ward, and then Shohei Otani. And if anyone reached, Mike Trout. Against the Yankees' closer, Clay Holmes, who is currently the best closer in baseball, believe it or not. Anyway, I left with one out in the ninth to beat traffic.

And I think it saved me. How much traffic, I left with one out in the ninth to beat traffic. And I think it saved me. How much traffic are you beating with one out in the ninth? It probably saved me 40 minutes. I got there because they ended up loading the bases. There was a walk and two hit batters or a single and two hit batters or something. And the bases were loaded with two outs in the ninth in a one run game.

I missed that entire dramatic sequence, and I was so happy. I made the right decision. I'm so old. All I wanted to do was get home. I knew I was going to be sitting in terrible traffic in a parking garage. Those are horrible for games. So what would you have done? Would you have stayed to the end, or would you have beat traffic?

I would have stayed for the end. I, I'd have saved for the end. I think I would have saved for the end too. I don't believe you. You don't believe me? I don't either. If I'm leaving to beat traffic, I'm leaving before the ninth inning. Okay, I believe that.

Well, no, why? Because I was right by the exit. What did you say if you were skipping traffic? If I have it in my head that I got to get home, say I got to get up early to do a podcast or something, then I will leave well before

the ninth inning. You don't need to do that. I beat traffic I left in the ninth inning. Thankfully, it was a bit of a long ninth inning. Oh, no, you don't need to do that. You don't need to do that. I beat traffic I left in the ninth inning. Thankfully, it was a bit of a long ninth inning. Okay, anyway, here are some listener bold predictions.

I didn't think we were going to get that many and then I looked at I had like 80 in my responses. So people like this topic. Jerome Martin, C.D. Lamb will score more fantasy points

than Cooper Krupp. Well, Jamie already had C.D. Lamb as wide receiver one, so I will skip that. Lump that in, sure. This is bold from Dr. Goldfish. Josh Jacobs finishes top five. Top five running back with a James

Connor-like season. Pure touchdown volume and a decent role in the passing game. Josh Jacobs, top five running back. The offense got better. The play caller got better. I don't know if the defense got better in Las Vegas. The pass rush did for sure.

I don't know if I could see top five. I mean, I would guess he's had pretty huge splits in wins versus losses, if I remember my Acer stats correctly. That's a Shire stat. But yeah, he did. I don't know about last year, but he did going into last year. Yeah, they're good.

He might be a top five running back. I like that one. If he's on the field on passing downs, then he's going to be a steal. Yeah. From Jonathan Phillips, KJ Osborne outscores Adam Thielen and finishes top 36.

There's no way that's happening if they're both healthy. I'd say that's correct, yeah. And he also says, Daryl Henderson is the running back to roster for the Rams this year. Oh. Okay.

It's the Super Bowl flashbacks there. I mean, if... If the whole Achilles thing is just we can get them back on the field faster but they still don't regain their explosiveness for two years, then that could be the case. From Eric. Eric, Frank Gore will come out of retirement

and play for the Niners after three running backs get injured. That's excellent. But then he's going to get injured. From Freedom. Not a Braveheart reference from what I can understand. Cortland Sutton will be a top five wide receiver this year. It's

possible. That's the case then. Well, I mean, he just dominates targets downfield and in the red zone. I almost do that before to a degree. We all said something negative about Judy in that regard, but we've seen Russell Wilson support two top 12 wide receivers before. It's rare.

A couple of years ago, he did. I think that's the only time that is the only time, but he can support one. Yes. Okay. What else here? Other bold predictions from Ryan to a a tongue of iloa benched by their

bi-week for teddy bridgewater he would have to play pretty bad for that to happen yeah i can't see that yeah all right here's the here's one andrew raub damian pierce scores the most fantasy points among rookie running backs that's a fun one yeah that's bolder than my christian watson one yes very much bolder i had in my initial projections damian pierce ahead of ken walker and i just changed it because it looked dumb. No, I think I've got him... Actually, I still have him just barely ahead of Ken Walker in the projections, not in the rankings.

Yeah, I think it's very possible. From Quarantief, Tyreek Hill finishes as wide receiver one. So that's spitting in the face of the 201 unless he thinks that Teddy

Bridgewater is going to lead Tyreek to number one. Tyreek's athletic profile and past performance definitely suggests that that could happen. Just don't know if it is really that like. Do you think he's one of the few receivers that has the potential to finish top as the number one receiver, Tyreek Hill?

Harder to say this year because of the trade, but yes. Just based on blazing speed, getting on the ball in open space. I mean, what the hell? The Dolphins do it 10 times a game. You could just get enough opportunities to be there. I saw a couple of replies to your tweet saying there were a couple of bold predictions that Waddle will be better than Tyreek. So everybody's all over the map with the Dolphins.

That feels more. What feels more realistic? Tyreek kills wide receiver one Waddle or Jalen Waddle is better than Tyreek Waddle better than Tyreek. Oh, that's a good question. I would say Tyreek number one. Okay. Our last one here from Jazz Roundtree.

Michael Thomas regains the wide receiver throne and finishes number one. Michael Thomas. A little harder to buy into that now. If he could regain full mobility in his ankle, that would be a good start. Well, okay.

What if he's 100% healthy? How unrealistic is that? Would you put Michael Thomas on the list of wide receivers who could finish as wide receiver one full PPR? Yes. Refresh my memory. Who were the other pass catchers in new Orleans when Thomas was the number one Camara and Jared? Who's still there? Who were the other pass catchers in New Orleans when Thomas was the number one?

Camara. And Jared Cook. Right? Okay. Kenny Stills, maybe? Or no, Willie Sneed, maybe? Traequan Smith. Oh, yeah, Traequan Smith.

Yeah, I feel like the supporting cast in New Orleans is better now than it was then. Yeah, because of a lot of that. supporting cast in New Orleans is better now than it was then. Yeah. Because of, I think it's going to, I think it's going to be harder for him to, you know, accumulate 170 targets or whatever he had. Who's calling you Heath?

Um, I think it's what? Okay. Let's, uh, let's read some emails here, guys. We'll go through Jason Tatum.

Let's go through the emails quickly so we can do some Apple podcast questions. This one is from Adam. All right. 14-team PPR league. Two running backs, two receivers, and a flex. $200 auction. I'm keeping Dobbins for $1.

Who should I keep for my second guy? It's a 14-team PPR league. AJ Dillon for $1 or Amandra St. Brown? For $1. Dillon. Dillon for $1 or Amandra St. Brown for $1? Dillon. Dillon. Okay. This is from Ryan.

Howdy, Bubba, Rory, and Mahomes. Those are great golfers. Great golfers. First off, farewell to Shraggy B and his insight will be missed. All the best, Shraggy B. Mm-hmm. Yeah.

Still sad about it. I play in a deep 20-team full PPR, six-point-per point per passing touchdown league. It's IDPs, it's keepers. And there are a lot of top players that are off the board on draft day. My question is,

am I crazy for considering keeping Gabriel Davis over DK Metcalf, considering the quarterback situations? Yeah, I love Gabriel Davis, but I think DK Metcalf is a little safer, especially long-term just yesterday. He said, Gabe was going to be a top 15 wide receiver.

Yeah, that was my bold prediction. But are we, are we talking about, does he say how long he can keep them for? I wish you wouldn't ask me that every time. No, he doesn't say when we need those answers does it really matter i mean when you're talking about gabriel davis versus dk beckham how long no i guess not i think it's dk all right uh ps did you see patrick mahomes 347 yard drive was

that bud light fueled What did you say? What? What did I say? No, that was definitely not Bud Light fueled. It was Coors Light? Was it Coors? It was Coors Light fueled. I didn't watch it. I believe it was what Mahomes called it.

Next question is from... Popeye had his spinach. Mahomes has his Coors Light and ketchup. Yeah. All right. Next question is from CF. It is a very long, detailed email with a lot of stats. And the gist of it is he thinks that A.J. Brown

should be ranked ahead of C.D. Lamb. He thinks that the Eagles will throw a lot more. He thinks the Eagles' offense is basically better than the older Cowboys offense, which has an aging offensive line, which has an aging running back. He thinks that CeeDee Lamb is going to get a lot of attention because he doesn't have a great

supporting cast, and he thinks A.J. Brown will not see as much because of Hertz's mobility, and I guess Devontae Smith. So, Seath is very passionate about this. He thinks that A.J. Brown should be firmly in front of CeeDee Lamb. I disagree with the firmly part,

but I understand the rest of the arguments. I've got Lamb, I think, two spots ahead of Brown. One of them's nine, one of them's 11. I could very easily

make the argument for either side of that, though. I do think right now Brown probably has more volume concerns than lamb is the major. Yes. Yeah. I think so. Like I have all the evidence and definitely more injury concerns than lamb

as well. Like he's got to stay healthy this year. Yeah. Agreed. Yeah. Okay. Good stuff. Apple podcast questions.

Thank you for all of your Apple podcast comments. I appreciate it. From Canadian Tony. Hey, Theodore, Alvin, Simon, and Dave. Dave, you're Alvin. I'm Theodore. Grade the trade. I received Jameis Winston, Brandon Cooks, and Aaron Rodgers.

Trying to see if this is- Amari Rodgers. Ah. Oh, there Cooks, and Aaron Rodgers. Trying to see if this is super flex. Amari Rodgers. Ah. Oh, there you go. Amari Rodgers. It did say Green Bay Packers. I just didn't read the next. You didn't read the wide receiver part.

All right. So let's do it again. Jameis Winston, Brandon Cooks, and Amari Rodgers. Giving up Antonio Gibson. A third round rookie pick this year and next year, and it is super flex. He has Derek Carr and Mitchell Trubisky. So he did need that quarterback.

He gets Jameis, Brandon Cooks, and Amari Rogers. He gives up Antonio Gibson, a third-round pick this year, and a third-round pick next year. Feels like a C to me. I like it. I love it, actually. I want some more of it. I think I'd go.

I don't know that I have a huge. I'm kind of down on Gibson right now. But I like it quite a bit as well. I was trying to see what difference I have even between Gibson and Cooks. Yeah, I mean, you guys are convinced that Gibson's at the end of the line? No, but I'm convinced that he's not winning the league with Derek Carr and Mitchell Trubisky

in a super flex league, so he needs Jameis to at least be serviceable. And Brandon Cooks is a huge part of the deal and he gives up Gibson, which is bad. I guess I'll pull back on the love because I think you might need to swing bigger. I don't know that Carr and Winston

are going to get it done for you, but I do like the trade in a vacuum. I like the trade. I've got Gibson just slightly more valuable than Cooks. I mean, they're both number twos at their position with uncertain futures, and a 28-year-old wide receiver and a 25-year-old

running back, or is he 24 still? Like, I don't even know if their windows are that much different. So I think Winston in a super flexed league is worth more than the difference between Cooks and Gibson for me. Alright, from A. Kramer, 456. Keeper League, you can only keep three players under 23 points based

on a point system of where they were drafted last year it is super flex non-ppr bonuses on long touchdowns it's qb heavy last year eight of them went in the first round so which trio would you keep trey lance trevor lawrence jamar chase zach well i'm not going to give the points but he gives trio would you keep? Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, Jamar Chase, Zach Wilson. I'm not going to give the points. But he gives you... All of them are 12 or fewer points. You got Trey Lance, Trevor Lawrence, Jamar Chase. You got to keep him at 9 points. Zach Wilson, James Conner,

Debo Samuel at 5 points. So how would you guys keep 3 of these and be under 23 points? Debo and chase are 14 boom yeah and then what you keep a quarterback it's super flex you can't you can't which one can you keep you can keep zach we'll keep zach wilson it would have to be wilson i just keep Connor. Okay. He'll get one top QB.

All right. So Chase, Connor, Debo. Is that what you said? Right. That's what he was thinking. Yes. And you can draft one of those. He'll draft a quarterback. From Kyle, we've got a 10-team league where every team keeps five players.

This makes everything after round two or three feel very thin. Who would you cut from this list? TJ Hawkinson, Jalen Hurts, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, or Cortland Sutton? You got to cut one. Hawkinson, Hurts, Akers, Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Cortland Sutton. Hawkinson for me.

Hawkinson, yeah, Hawkinson. I think it's Hawkinson. From Sons Outdoors. Hello from a city two hours north of Regina. Dave, two hours north of Regina? Yeah. I don't know. Where's Regina?

I thought we usually use reference points. And I don't even know what would happen if I Googled Regina. Do you prefer T. Higgins? It's in Saskatchewan, two hours north of Regina. And Regina's really in the middle of nowhere. No offense, dude. Yeah, it is offensive. Two hours north of Melfort, maybe?

Yeah, I think it's probably Melfort, yeah. Smeaton? Ah, it's Smeaton. Choiceland. He's from Choiceland, Saskatchewan. I was Smeaton him in Choic's Smeaton. Choice Land. He's from Choice Land, Saskatchewan. I was Smeaton him in Choice Land. Yeah, with Regina. T. Higgins or Deontay Johnson as a keeper?

God, how cold is it there? Higgins. There's a place called Carrot River. What a fun place. Choice Land, Carrot River? Although I got to tell you, Carrot River would not be my choice. Oreo River would probably be my choice. Tobin Lake, guys?

Tobin Lake. Tobin. I remember Tobin. Yeah. This remember Tobin. Yeah. This is from Ray. Superflex Keeper League. Half PPR. Russell Wilson in round three.

AJ Brown in round four. Keenan Allen round five. Travis Etienne round six. Daniel Jones round 12. Kadarius Toney round 19. Rashad Penny round 19. Rashad Penny, round 19. He needs three of them. It is super flex.

And okay, it's Wilson in round three. Got it. That's a keeper, right? Wilson Brown. Yes. A.J. Brown, round four. Kenan Allen, round five. Just doing that. Yeah. Okay. And this is from NotBomba.

I like your not socks in my full PPR 12 team. Do you guys have Bamba socks? Yeah, I do actually. So they're like giving your feet a hug the entire day. Love them. Full PPR 12 team dynasty. This segment brought to you by now.

I'm just kidding. 12 team dynasty league. I have a hard time telling if I'm a contender or not. I'm sitting with a starting lineup as listed below. Okay, I'm going to have the number five pick in the rookie draft. Should I trade out and stockpile picks or look for a starting running back or, you know, whatever.

Here's the lineup. Is he a contender? Let's start with that. Lamar Jackson. J.K. Dobbins. Damian Harris. Justin Jefferson. D.J. Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Damian Harris, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore,

Tyler Lockett. He also has Jerry Judy. Cole Komet is his tight end. His bench is not very good. I'll just say that. But his starters are pretty damn good. Pretty good. What would you do?

Would you be buying this team? You know, selling on this team? He's really in purgatory, isn't he? Well, but the thing is you're, I, for the most part,

you're young and in the middle. And if you're going to be in the middle, you want to be young. like I would, if it was my team, I would probably see what i could get for damian harris and or tyler lockett um yeah come on in terms of a player or a pick now you'd want a player to upgrade your roster you want to'd want a pick? Or picks?

Oh, picks, I think, is what I'd be looking for. Heath, would you take a second-round rookie pick for Lockett? Yes. Okay. Would you take a second-round rookie pick for Harris? Yes. Could you think you, you would, I'm going to take both these guys and turn it around on you.

You're a contending team. You have a late first round pick. Would you trade that late one to try and win now with Harrison Lockett? I would not, but I would be offering those two to the teams that have the last four picks in the first round and see if I could get another first. And then I'd be trying to turn that late first into a top eight first with one of my seconds or thirds. So I could have two picks in the top eight. But you're still going to be really stuck at running back.

I don't think you're at the point also. To get a running back now. Like he talked about, I would not be taking a running back with that number five pick for sure. No, unless Walker falls. No, you're taking Wilson or Lave or Burks, whoever's there. Do you agree, Heath, that you would take Walker if he falls at five?

Yes. For this team, yes. I don't think he will be. Okay, guys. Have a great weekend, fellas. Yeah. When's game two? Sunday or Saturday?

Game two is Sunday night. I should be back from my tropical storm hunting. And what a bad weather weekend in Florida. I hope everybody's all right down there. And we will, we'll talk to you on Sunday night on FFT and five. We'll talk to you on Monday on FFT. And thank you all for listening and watching. Hope you all have a great weekend.

Dave and Heath, I'm Adam. Goodbye.