Fantasy Football Today - ADP Values and Advanced Stats! (07/20 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 20, 2022

Vote for us for Best Sports Podcast and Best Male-Hosted Podcast! http://podcastawards.com/app/signup/ You'll hear some advanced stats you've never heard on our show before, but first let's start with some of the best values based on current ADP (2:00). Jacob and Heath love D.J. Moore, obviously. But they also like Tyler Allgeier's value and they're debating which Jets wide receiver has the best value. Then we move on to the worst ADP values (5:50) which includes two quarterbacks according to Heath and an entire tier of tight ends ... News and notes (15:00) on the Saints, 49ers and Broncos. Then we get into three advanced metrics: On/off splits (19:15); Discrepancies vs. teammates (32:00); First down targets (41:30). Jacob explains each stat and tells you why they could give you hints about breakout seasons ... We finish with another look at average draft position (51:40) as we reveal more players with noticeably good or bad values. Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and Rashod Bateman are on the "good" list! ... Email us at [e-mail] Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Welcome to your Wednesday edition of Fantasy Football Today. I'm Adam Azer. I'm joined by Heath Cummings and Jacob Gibbs. Getting statty here with the best and worst average draft position values right now, according to Fantasy Pros ADP, and some of the favorite stats that Jacob likes to use, including targets on first down. I don't think we've ever talked about that, have we?

No. That's why I brought it up. We're getting real in the weeds today. I love it. It's so interesting. Who are some of the most targeted players on first down and why does it matter? We're going to talk about that. Now, I asked Heath and Jacob for the best and worst values based on current Fantasy

Pros ADP. I was a little overwhelmed by the amount of names in the reply email. How many names do you guys think you provided? Best and worst values. Overall, total. Are we counting the ones that we had the same as one or two? I counted them as two. Because I didn't go through.

I just counted names. There were a lot, like 30 or 40 between the two of us? Yeah. 48 names. Oh, my God. So I don't think we'll be spending too much time on all of them, but we will spend time on many of them and get hopefully some good debate here. We have a lot to get to, and we have your emails at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. So with that being

said, let's get right into it. Jacob, I'll go to you for the best values. When you look at current ADP on Fantasy Pros, you used half PPR, Heath used full PPR. I'm not going to say who was wrong, but it was Jacob. It doesn't really matter. They're very similar. It doesn't matter. What were some of the best ADP values according to current fantasy pros ADP as you saw it? Yeah, the three guys that Heath and I agreed on were DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, YD-50, DJ Moore, YD-18, and Tyler Algier at running back 55 for Atlanta. I would like to focus on Algier. I just put out a piece really digging into the advanced stats and all the rookie running backs,

and he seems really legit in terms of his early down ability. I don't think he's going to contribute much on passing downs, but I think what we've seen from him on early downs and short yardage situations at the goal line has all been really, really impressive. And it's just rare that you get a potential, you know,

early down starting running back this late. Where's he going? 160th or so? Yeah. Okay. So who were the DJ more? Who was the second guy you said? Garrett Wilson,

Garrett Wilson, both, both the jets receivers to me really stand out. Him and Elijah Moore. Do you think that it's possible that they could will, that it could because anything could happen,

will both be values? Or is there so much upside because they're both so talented and one of them is going to be the number one and that guy will be worth it? I like taking a chance on each of them at their respective um price i think they're you know their chance of uh drasca performing their adp is pretty high relative to the other people going to that range um the chance of both of them hitting i would say is pretty low if you think that might happen then, you should be loading up on those two and Zach Wilson and best ball. Yeah. Garrett Wilson's going 127th overall. He's wide receiver 50 and

Elijah Moore is going 83rd overall. He's wide receiver 35. He is in between Juju Smith Schuster and Devante Smith. Would you take Elijah Moore over both Juju Smith Schuster and Devante Smith? Easily for me. Yeah. I, i would over davante smith i would not over juju but you know my history with juju i think i think the thing that we could just spend like 15 minutes on is elijah moore versus garrett wilson um why don't we spend two minutes on it i i have garrett wilson ranked i think one one spot ahead of Elijah Moore, and that's just because Jacob convinced me that Elijah Moore was so good in that small sample size as a rookie that we should expect more from him. But I just, man, I think Garrett Wilson was my favorite wide receiver coming in. I've got London ahead of him right now because there's no Elijah Moore on his

team and because he was taken first. But a top 10 pick with as good as he was man i i think garrett wilson could be a top 12 dynasty wide receiver by like week six well okay jacob so tell us in the advanced that the advanced stats are very favorable for elijah moore right so tell us what you like uh yeah he was targeted at a ridiculous rate we'll get into um this in more detail honestly later um but what he did as a rookie in terms of ability to draw targets his ability to draw air yards and just dominate the volume when he was on the field um was pretty impressive in the group of other receivers who have done it at his age um in the rookie season have almost all turned into fantasy

superstars um so i and he was his college data profile was extremely encouraging as well um so we had that he had the draft capital he came in and immediately produced um i really love gary wilson as well he was my wide receiver one going into the draft um and the analytics on him are also really really strong so but they're different types of receivers i think they totally could coexist as long as they have a quarterback that could facilitate that volume. Okay. So for Jacob, he's looking at DJ Moore and Garrett Wilson, Tyler Algier,

also Elijah Moore. So those are three of the best values. Heath, how about you? Three of the worst ADP values. I liked Jacob's list of worst values more than I did mine because I just looked for the really early drafted guys that I thought were being drafted a little bit too high. And he hit on a couple of guys that are being drafted way too high later in the draft. But I'm going to go with the two obvious ones. And it's even amongst quarterbacks. But Patrick Mahomes at pick 30, Joe Burrow at pick 53. It seems like no matter where we look, Burrow is being overdrafted somewhere between QB4 and QB6, which I just don't, especially when you consider like on these fantasy pros consensus rankings, a majority of their sites do not have six points per pass touchdown. So it's even more slanted away from pocket passers. And I really think at QB4 or QB6, you're drafting Burrow at the absolute best case scenario.

Why is Mahomes going too early in your mind? Well, I don't have Josh Allen in full PPR as a top-30 pick, and Josh Allen is QB1. Mahomes really hasn't been worth a top-30 pick the last couple of years, and that was with Tyreek Hill. Okay. I would like to find out where it's so i know you're so high on t higgins jacob how do you feel about joe burrow i think burrow like where

he's ranked among quarterbacks makes sense i think he he's right that you are sort of drafting him at his ceiling uh the the rates stats that he put up last year were pretty ridiculous. He's probably going to have some regression there. And then, yeah, relative to the running backs receivers, you can find that range. I don't like him there. Same with Mahomes. This is off topic, but I would really like to bring up this tight end tier. I think we have some really, really overrated tight ends. Dawson Knox, Mike Tosicki, and Pat Fremuth at tight end 9, 11, and 12.

And you can wait 20, 30 picks to get Cole Komet, Irv, who I know he really likes, Irv Smith, Albert O, David Njoku. That, to me, stands out as one of the clearest mistakes you can make is if you don't have a tight end and you see the Knox-Tjesecki guys and you think you need to get one and you grab one there when you could be getting really talented receivers in that 90 to 120 range um when you really could wait and get the tight end 13 through 16 the guys that i just mentioned there and and it's not even that knox is going a lot higher on sleeper like that would almost make a little more sense if it's just people trying to reach to pair

him up with josh allen um or on underdog but like there's no, he's going to take tight end 11 tight end 12 on sites that don't even offer best ball. Yeah. So people just expect that he's going to score a touchdown every eight targets again. No, they don't. I think that's unfair.

They think he's going to get more targets and I don't want to be the Dawson Knox defender every show. You are officially already were before this podcast. I am, but I don't, but I don't, but I agree with you that he's going too early. He should not be a top 100 pick, but he played one fewer game than Gabriel Davis last year. He had more yards, more targets, more catches,

and more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis last year. And now if you include the postseason, that changes a little bit because Davis had the 200-yard game. But Knox had, I think, an 85-yard, two-touchdown game against the Patriots in the playoffs, too. But again, I want to repeat that.

Dawson Knox played one fewer game than Gabriel Davis, and he was better in every receiving category. Not every rate category, you know, like yards per catch. But targets, yards, catches, touchdowns. So that's my point with Dawson Knox is so many people are projecting this big bump for Gabriel Davis and you should, right? I am too. But the CBS crew is not doing that for Dawson Knox. The general public is. That's the way I view it. I do think Knox gets a bump. And I think that he was on pace for 80, 81 targets, 80 to 81 targets last year in 17 games. There's no reason why that can't be 90 targets. And if he gets 90 targets, I do think he'll be a top 12 tight end.

But not someone who should draft 100th overall, but I do think he'll be a top 12 tight end. Is that so unreasonable? When you say the general public is projecting that for Dawson Knox and we are not, maybe that's true, but the general public is also projecting a bigger increase for Gabe Davis than we are. Also, Dawson Knox ran 507 routes. Gabriel Davis ran 338 just on those stats. I just don't think that's, he, he played one of your game,

but he ran way more routes. He had way more opportunities to draw targets. Is that a negative though? Cause well, I think Gabriel Davis is going to run a lot more routes this year. Yeah. Gabriel Davis is going to, is probably going to out target Knox,

but I'm just saying there's a lot to, there's a lot for, for all of them to make up for with the losses of Beasley and Sanders. I think it comes back to the tight end bucket versus wide receiver bucket thing that I've talked about with Dallas Goddard. Just as I'm not sure that A.J. Brown's going to affect Dallas Goddard's targets as much,

I'm not sure the loss of Cole Beasley is going to affect Dawson Knox targets at all. Yeah, that was the other thing I was going to bring up is Knox, and I think we were planning on getting this later in the on-offs, but that's what they brought up, but Knox didn't see a significant boost with Cole Beasley off the field, whereas Gabe Davis and Steph Diggs both did.

Certainly, Gabe Davis was great when Emmanuel Sanders was not on the field. What was I going to say? Bill Zwire from USA Today said that Dawson not... I think it was, I was just reading that this morning. With Coles Beasley out,

his departure as a playmaker in the middle of the field could open things up for Knox even further. Knox is going to be the most trusted playmaker in the middle for Josh Allen, and it's not close. I don't know if I agree with that, but this is popular opinion. So you guys are going against it, which is fine. And as I said, I don't want to sit here and make a point and make an argument

when I completely agree with you that tight end nine or tight end 10 and 100th overall is just too early. You know what this reminds me of? A few years ago, Jared Cook's last year on the Saints, I think I was saying. Oh, my. Yes. Very much Yes. He's being drafted too high. I think he was tight end eight in ADP, something like that. But I knew in our leagues, nobody drafted him. So I was fine taking him as the last tight end in our leagues. That's

how I feel about Dawson Knox. I am fine with it. If I'm the 12th person to take a tight end as Dawson Knox, I'm perfectly happy to do that. I think 38-year-old Jared Cook is an excellent comp for Dawson Knox. Yeah, it's a bet on Drew Brees, not on Dawson Knox. Sorry. You know what I'm saying. It's a bet on Josh Allen. Drew Brees is a terrible comp for Josh Allen. It's a bet on the passing offense. All right. So those are some of the best and worst ADP values. More on that in a little bit. There's something very important that I have to say. This is a category or, sorry, a segment called I Like Dan and Dan Likes Me. I just want everyone to know that we are actually friends. I've gotten a lot of comments about how Dan hates Adam.

We hate each other. It's not true. It's a shtick. We're going to dial it down because people are confused. It was supposed to be funny. It wasn't funny. Dan and i are actually buddies and uh well yeah just know that everything is in jest but and i wanted to tell dan this like i think it's important to say this my first year and a half on the show i was despised i've heard stories about the terrible things people said to Jamie early on in his time at CBS.

Ben Gretsch was not popular at all the first year he was on the show. I've never actually seen anything bad about Jacob, but Dan should not feel bad about the audience hating him because the audience has hated almost every new person we've ever tried to bring into the fold, at least in my memory. Yeah. And this is year 13 for me. I'm hoping this is my year where people like me. But you can vote for us as a podcast and we need you to do it. You have until the end of the month. Please, please, please. We want to win this year. Please go to podcast. Jacob, have you done this? Go to podcastawards.com right now, Jacob, and vote for Fantasy Football today. You can do it in less than a minute. Go to podcastawards.com.

There's another link to click there. Then you'll have to sign up. It'll take about 60 seconds. You can vote for Fantasy Football today for the best sports podcast and best male-hosted podcast. That is the podcast, not the host. Best male-hosted podcast

and best sports podcast. Please vote for us and people's choice if you want as well. Fantasy Football Today. Yes, I'm going to bug you about it for another 10 days, but that'll be it. The bugging is not what bothers me. What bothers me is the idea that within a 90-second span,

you can say you're hoping people start liking you now when you've already been nominated for the best male podcast host. No, I haven't. In America. No, I haven't. People are voting for you for best male podcast host? No, I haven't. In America. No, I haven't. People are voting for you for best male podcast host. Stop. They are not.

They are not doing that. I am. You are voting for best male hosted podcast. It's a big, big difference. This is a Dwight Schrute thing. News and notes. While Jacob finishes voting, Heath, why don't we... Dwight Schrute thing.

That's excellent. Why don't we... Dwight's true thing. That's excellent. Why don't we go through the news and notes? Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas appear to be trending in the right direction. Good news, potentially good news for Thomas. Seems like certainly good news for Jameis Winston. I feel more confident in the Winston reports than the Thomas reports. Okay. Where do you think Michaelomas should be drafted right now

around wide receiver 30 ahead of elijah moore i do have michael thomas ahead of elijah moore jeff wilson rounds five six ish i think in full ppr and round seven eight and none okay jeff wilson would be the backup to elijah m Elijah Mitchell if the season started today, according to The Athletic. That's pretty interesting. Albert O. and Greg Dulcich will compete for the starting tight end job for the Broncos, according to Mike Kliss of Nine News. Not just that, but he made it sound,

and he wasn't the first Broncos beat reporter. The Broncos beats have really done a nice job this offseason of just throwing cold water on anybody we try to get excited about. But they mostly made it sound like until Dulcich had the core injury at OTAs, he was taking most of the first-team snaps, and he is the best pass catcher at tight end. It was not framed as if maybe Dulcich could take Alvaro's job,

but maybe Dulcich is the favorite for the job. Can we take Dawson Knox over the Broncos guys? I would. You could. You wouldn't? I would. I don't. I mean, Dawson Knox has to beat out O.J. Howard.

No, he doesn't have to beat out O.J. Howard. He is the starting tight end. Give me a break. Don't say what you're about to say. I think O.J. Howard. He is the starting tight end. Give me a break. Don't say what you're about to say. I think O.J. Howard was the most talented tight end in the NFL. Don't say it. Just stop. I just think there's more upside with Alberto.

Dawson Knox has never drawn tight. Alberto, didn't you just hear what he said or were you busy voting? I heard that. He could be nothing. I get that. And then you just drop him and pick up Dawson Knox. But Alberto has some of the best pariah rates of any time in the NFL. And if he gets a regular role with Russell Wilson, he could be really good.

Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be cleared by mid-August, according to Ian Rappaport. It's going to be tough. We're getting to the point where he really needs to be on another team soon. Training camps are starting. This is kind of nutty. I don't think he's going to be on another team. I think the shadow of Jimmy G will hang over the first month of Trey Lance as a starting quarterback.

And it's the thing that the Chiefs wanted to avoid with Mahomes, the thing that Jacksonville had to avoid with Gardner Minshew last year. And San Francisco is not going to avoid it. But as long as Trey Lance is good, it won't matter. I have a quick movie recommendation. It's not really much of a recommendation because everybody likes it. It's 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, but I do want to say I finished The Batman last night. Have you guys seen it?

The Batman? The one with Robert Pattinson? I haven't. No. Oh, man. It's really good and so different. It's really not a comic book movie at all it is a dark dark murder mystery but very very good and it did take me three days to watch it over three showings over two weeks almost because it's three hours long but highly recommend the batman and very

excited for the sequel that will be coming out apparently in 2024. So I was thinking like, I should look at the 49ers schedule and just make sure there's not a chance that things start off poorly for Trey Lance. And they open at the bears. Winner. And then they face Seattle at home.

So they're 2-0. Then things get a little bit more difficult. But they've got the Panthers and the Falcons in the first six weeks of the season. Nice. We don't have to worry about Jimmy G at all. Maybe, but how fun is Lance vs. Fields going to be in week one? That's the

matchup to watch. Okay, I'm getting off track here. Let's talk more movies. Or let's talk about these advanced stats. So I asked Jacob for three advanced stats that he wanted to talk about. They were going to be the on-off splits. Call those the light switch stats.

The discrepancies versus teammates. And the first down targets. I can't wait for those. Let's start with on-off splits. And so this is splits when someone's on the field and off the field, you know, like a teammate is off the field, on the field. You'll see. Jacob, take it away.

Yeah, so I really dug into these a lot this offseason, and there will be an article coming out on this tomorrow on Sportsline. We had so much player movement this year, so it's especially relevant. And the first one I want to start with is Mecole Hardman. We're talking about Mecole Hardman again. This is the year i think he finally could break out if he gets a regular role um he's been 13 there it is there it is yeah go ahead i was waiting for a sub sort of yeah yeah that's okay he's been 13 more likely

to draw a target with tyree kill off the field uh he's seen a 25 boost to his yard per run rate um in his career um those are better um increases to his rates than any other chiefs player uh we talked about travis kelsey on f team five his rates have actually gotten worse without tyree kill um last year he was on 22 of his routes and had 2.2 yards per route run which is like really elite stuff um if you look at some guys in that same range you're looking at dj more down to johnson michael pittman chris godwin type of guys um and that's only in 144 routes but for his career he's averaged 1.9 yards per hour run without tyree kill on the field they've made him more of a priority with tyree got the field so i just want to see what you guys

think is there any way i could tell you on hardman, or are you just like, no, he's trash? It's hard, man. It's hard, man. It's difficult because to be excited about Hardman, you have to, I think, believe that either Skymore, Juju, or MVS is just not really going to be a factor. I think it's totally realistic that Skymore might not be a factor in year one. I think he might kind of follow the Tyreek Kill trajectory where he's eased into the offense um he has a lot to learn as a you know converted cornerback and when I dug into the college uh wide receiver prospects route trees he graded out as one of the worst on uh the NFL staple routes um so I think

there's that and then there's also Juju could be washed or injured at any point um and so I think there's that, and then there's also Juju could be washed or injured at any point. And so I think they're definitely a realistic pass to regular playing time for Hardman. Yeah, these four wide receivers are guys that rightly or wrongly I'm going to move based on what we hear in camp. Because we have not much else to go on. And so if it looks like Hardman's a starter, then I will definitely be in in the double-digit rounds. I'm just doing a quick little thing here that might be helpful. Okay, so let's look at the Pittsburgh game. That was week 15.

Tyreek Hill played just 42% of the snaps, and Mecole Hardman had three catches for 31 yards and a touchdown on five targets. And actually only Byron Pringle had more receiving yards. Pringle had a big game, six for 75 and two. See, it must not have been a great game for Mahomes. That was the thing that always bothered me with Hardman because I got excited about him a couple of different times.

I always hated how much pringle and at times demarcus robinson were playing more or more involved than him um yeah but right but we i just want to say week 18 because i'm sorry he thought i just need to say it week 18 it's very good better yeah it is good for it only 18 of the snaps for tyree kill in week 18 and miko hardman had eight catches for 103 yards on 11 targets Byron Pringle though did have eight targets and five for 56 but yes uh production was was better for Hardman in those games when Tyree Kill barely played but yeah I mean I don't know the the Hardman thing is more like uh gosh we might not have one good fantasy wide receiver

on the Chiefs because we might have three guys or four guys just taking turns. I think that's possible for sure. Who else you want to talk about? So with Devante Adams off 2019 through 2021, Aaron Jones obviously has seen his numbers spike. His yard per hour run rate has doubled. He's been targeted on 29% of his routes, which is ridiculous. That's like Austin Eckler, Alvin Kamara type stuff. but i think people know that that's been talked about quite a bit

alan lazard in 190 routes with davante off the field has seen his target per hour rate up at 21 compared to 15 with davante on the field his yard per hour run is 2.2 compared to 1.3 with davante on the field um he had a couple good games last year when, or over the past few years when Devante has missed. So Lazard is somebody who I have been really kind of out on because his rates are just so bad. We've never really seen him be efficient at all, but this was encouraging.

I still am like more excited for Christian Watson, but I think Lazard is somebody who could exceed expectations at ADP. Heath? Yeah, I've mostly just avoided the entire Packers receiving core. But Lazard is my favorite. It's a pretty interesting stat. Yeah. All right, and finally, oh no, there's two more.

Devontae Smith with Dallas Goddard on and off the field. Yep, just a small decrease, but I think it's really notable now that he does have really like the league's premier target hog. We'll get to A.J. Brown later, but A.J. Brown coming into the equation here. Devonta Smith with Dallas Goddard off last year. Goddard did miss some time. 22% target rate, 1.9 yards per outrun

compared to a 19% target per outrun rate and 1.7 yards per outrun. I really love Devonta Smith as a talent, but I just don't. I really have a hard time projecting for fantasy-relevant volume this year. Yeah, you know what? If you look at, I was doing this this morning actually, Dallas Goddard versus Devontae Smith in just the raw numbers, I would do it without Zach Ertz.

If you want to look at the full season, then Devontae Smith did average more targets per game than Dallas Goddard. But if you look at the 10 games that they played, not including Week 18, because I think what happened in Week 18, Dallas Goddard didn't play, and Devontae Smith was on the field

just long enough to break the Eagles' rookie receiving record, and then they took him out. He played 14 snaps, I think. But in the 10 games before that, they averaged the same amount of targets. Goddard had 5.7 targets per game, Smith 5.6 targets per game.

And Goddard was better. I mean, Smith scored more touchdowns, but Goddard was on pace for 1,044 yards and Smith on pace for 901 yards. So again, the main stat there is the 10 games without Zach Ertz and before week 18, Goddard and Smith averaged the same amount of targets per game. Goddard was better with them other than touchdowns. And Nick Sirianni has been a part of an offense

that has used tight ends heavily throughout. So like 22%, 24%, 26% in terms of tight end target share. So it's hard for me to project a big hit for Goddard, even with A.J. Brown there. It's kind of like what Jacob's saying. I'm more worried that it's just A.J. Brown and Dallas Goddard and Devontae Smith's left with the leftovers. And then I think the counterpoint to that is,

can we really judge Devontae Smith on what he did as a rookie? Because he could easily just be so much better in his second season. That's when a lot of players take a big leap. Yes, and maybe he will earn more targets. I think what Jacob has called them before is first-look targets. There are just plays in the Philadelphia playbook that are designed to go to Dallas Goddard. I think Brandon Ayuk is a really good example.

I loved what we saw from Ayuk as a rookie, but I was really worried about him in year two. And I think as the clear third option in a passing game that, you know, might be middle to low in terms of volume, it's just really hard to be fantasy relevant. You have to be like insanely, insanely efficient to do that.

And like, there's a couple of paths, but they could use that average to low if they get anywhere close to an average number of pass attempts yeah and they just don't throw their running backs very much then there's room for for brown goddard and davante smith but they were i mean that's that's an extra 100 pass attempts from last year. Right. Devontae Smith or Tyler Lockett asks Ryan Johnson. I think Lockett, yeah, pretty clearly.

Yeah. The only thing I would disagree with in the wording was that I don't see Devontae Smith as a clear number three option. And like I said, he had the same amount of targets as Goddard in those last 10 games. That's because you were expecting that A.J. Brown will impact Goddard and Smith targets equally. Yeah. Well, I mean, I wouldn't say necessarily equally, but I just

don't see the guy who is Heisman Trophy winner, 11th pick, I think, in the draft, you know, big pedigree. I don't think he's going to be the clear number three behind Dallas Goddard. You know, I think they'll be fighting for number two. But obviously it's a guess for me. I do not know what will happen. And I haven't drafted Devontae Smith really that much, I don't think, because I see the same

issues. Everything changes, though, if A.J. Brown gets hurt. That's what kills me about evaluating Smith and Goddard. You know. It's the same thing with Debo. It's like George Kittle is so injury prone. I'm going to like Debo so much more the second George Kittle gets hurt. I think an A.J. Brown injury probably helps Smith more than it does Goddard. Yeah, but it's going to help both of them, right?

It would have to. Not if Goddard's target share is not impacted by Brown. How could his target share not be impacted by Brown? I mean, but like just logically. Because there are buckets for tight end targets. No, there are buckets. It's about players. It's about players.

I mean, nah. All right. One more. One more, Jacob. Yeah, we don't have too much time on this because we already talked about it. It's the Bills. And with Cole Beasley off, Stefan Diggs was targeted on 28% of his routes last year compared to 21% with Beasley on the field.

So pretty drastic improvement there. And then Gabriel Davis also was targeted on 24% of his routes. And we're talking about a fairly small sample size, 106 routes during the regular season. If you include the playoffs, it goes up to about 150 routes for gabe davis um but we've seen davis typically be targeted like on 13 to 17 percent of his routes um but with beasley off it he was significantly more involved um i don't know it wouldn't surprise me i don't know what to make of it because i don't feel like beasley's role affects davis's role that much um That's what I'm saying, man. It's not about the role and the position,

because you can't get two more different wide receivers than Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley. He liked Cole Beasley when Beasley was on the field. When Beasley's not off the field, not on the field, he throws to someone else. That's what I'm saying, man. He's not just going to target the slot receiver, because he likes the slot receiver.

I think some guys do. But yeah, I think Beasley is somebody who legitimately has always drawn targets at a high rate in Buffalo's offense. And when your best short to intermediate option is Dawson Knox or a washed up Jameson Crowder, then yeah, I think we might see more targets on the perimeter. We just had to throw that little shade in at Dawson Knox. Don't forget Isaiah McKenzie.

Yeah, I would never. Okay. Let's take a break here on Fantasy Football today. When we come back, we'll talk about a couple more advanced stats and more ADP, and we'll try to get your emails in at fantasyfootballatcbsi.com. We'll be right back on FFT. What does possible sound like for your business? It's having the spend to powers your scale with no preset spending limit. More cash on hand to grow your business with up to 55 interest-free days. And the ability to reach further with access to over 1,400 airport lounges worldwide. Redefine possible with Business Platinum. That's the powerful backing of American Express.

Terms and conditions apply. Visit amex.ca slash businessplatinum. Second advanced stat from Jacob. Go ahead. Were you going to say something, Keith? Well, I was going to talk coming out of the break, but I delayed too long. I'm always worried about messing those things up.

I didn't want the commercial to still be going while I was talking. That would have been terrible. Does it bother you that I quote tweeted your tweet and said it's the Dawson Knox show? Yes, it does bother me. That is a really boring show. Who wants to watch

the Dawson Knox show? Let's talk more about advanced stats. So this is discrepancies versus teammates jacob's looking for players who were just so much better than their teammates and maybe their numbers were dragged down by a bad quarterback or whatever but indications jacob would you say indications that if things get better if the situation gets better these guys are going to really have a big boost yeah possibly and it's just it's players who have produced really well

in situations where no one else really is. I mostly just wanted to bring this up because this is my first year really paying attention to this and digging into it. I hope to find time later in the offseason to get into past examples of this and see how it's panned out. But yeah, I wanted to hear your guys' thoughts on it.

So when we just look at players who have drastically outperformed their wide receiver teammates in terms of creating yards per outrun, at the top we have Devontae Adams and A.J. Brown, of course. Next, after them, is Deebo Samuel and D.J. Moore with a 54% increase over the teammates. Just another metric where D.J. Moore clearly stands out as a superstar. Sorry, one second.

Yeah. This is based on yards per outrun, you said? Mm-hmm. Okay. Compared to wide receiver teammates. And so Tyree Kill per outrun you said okay compared to wide receiver teammates and so tyree kill you see next because it's compared to wide receiver teammates doesn't include travis kelsey uh cooper cup justin jefferson terry mclaurin michael pittman and then here we go davante smith so uh actually some positive here for davante i think he is very good

because everyone else on this is you know highly relevant fantasy receiver and then tyler lockett we had that question earlier is right next and really, Tyler Lockett being on this list is insane. Being on a team with DK Metcalf and being 39% above the wide receiver average is nuts. So yeah, what really stood out to me was DJ Moore being so high. Michael Pittman is definitely going to break out this year, it feels like. And then Devontae and Tyler Lockett being on that list was really impressive. Yeah, I would be curious, looking at the past, whether this, this is yards per route run? Mm-hmm.

Looking at the list in the past of guys who have stood out by this versus guys who have stood out by the most increase in target share over their teammates. Mm-hmm. Or the most increase in target share over their teammates or the most increase in targets per route run and which of those three things i don't have a guess um as to which one is like obviously all of these things except for tyler lockett are are largely influenced by the fact that the other wide receivers on their team are bad right and. And I would say Debo, too. Debo really stood out because Ayuk's not bad. Right. Ayuk's a lot better than what a lot of these,

than Quez Watkins. Yeah. And I'm also curious, like, the whole Corey Davis thing with Elijah Moore always bothered me probably more than it should have. That it was almost like, well, Moore kind of needed Zach Wilson to get out of the way before he had his big breakout.

But I did not realize that he was so much better because he was so much worse on a yards per target basis than Corey Davis. I did not know he was so much better on a yards per route run basis than Corey Davis, which is interesting. Another guy who really stood out was chase claypool um he had the 10th best discrepancy versus wide receiver teammates in terms of fantasy points per target um which is really shocking with um with deontay johnson on his team uh he also stood out when it came to yards per out run he was 24 percent above his Pittsburgh wide receiver teammates, which was the highest of any wide receiver two in the NFL, higher than, you know, T Higgins and DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, you know, like it's, I don't know,

like people are so down on Chase Claypool. But he was pretty productive in a really, really gross situation. Another thing I looked at was their explosive reception rate, which is the percentage of their targets resulting in a 15-plus yard gain relative to their teammates. And Chase Claypool was the only receiver who was above 50%. The next highest was Tyler Lockett at 39%, DJ Moore 25%, Elijah Moore, Darnell Mooney 21%. So these are players who are creating explosive plays in offenses that just aren't explosive.

I think Chase Claypool could be really good. That's what he looked like as a rookie. And obviously last year was a disappointment. But I don't know. I'm curious what you guys think about this because everybody seems to be out on him. I don't. I think it's really hard to evaluate.

I've always been the low guy on Deontay Johnson. So I was going to make a joke about, well, that makes sense for Chase Claypool, too, if it's right in with DJ Moore. But that would have been not nice. I think it's hard to evaluate the Steelers' wide receivers with what their offense and quarterback has been the past couple of years.

And I'm not certain that it's going to get any easier to evaluate them this year. Yeah, right. That's the thing. I don't know that people's going to get any easier to evaluate them this year. Yeah, right. That's the thing. I don't know that people really see it as an upgrade at quarterback. They are guys who are much more willing to go downfield than what they've had in the past. Both Kenny Pickett and Trubisky, which could benefit Claypool. I want to go back to Corey Davis and Elijah Moore.

Because this is one like this is this i often snarky and so i'm not being at this time but i do want to better understand because for people who would go to the jets pro football reference page and look at elijah moore and corey davis they would have um good reason to think that Corey Davis was just as good or better than Elijah Moore last year. He was better on a per-catch basis, a per-target basis, a per-game basis. They basically were the same in terms of targets per game. He scored touchdowns at a higher rate. But the yards per route run really favor Elijah Moore. And maybe it's just me looking at their pro football reference page too much,

but virtually all those other things make it look like Corey Davis was more productive or better than Elijah Moore last year. Yeah, I mean, a lot of those are influenced by Corey Davis having a 13.1-yard ADOT, which just helps boost efficiency on some of those numbers. And I think with Elijah, it kind of took a while, whether it was Zach Wilson's fault or just acclimating to the league as a rookie, for him to really establish himself. And once he did, he was clearly the guy. Well, I think that could be one of the things is just that all the other quarter, because

I think Corey Davis missed time. He did. When Zach Wilson missed time, right? That's the biggest. Yeah. Yes. And yeah. And when Elijah Moore was breaking out, that's the biggest problem here is that it really

kind of took two injuries to Zach Wilson and Corey Davis before Elijah Moore really busted loose well and then the other thing like the the a dot because you talked about it with Dallas Goddard and how his catch rate was really high for his a dot it's strange that Corey Davis had a higher catch rate than Elijah Moore with a higher a dot but that could just be explained by the fact that i have elijah more of the higher catch rate but they're basically about 58 percent okay he was yeah yeah i so do you like corey davis more than elijah more heath no it troubles me about elijah moore yeah that guy listen i've always been a corey davis guy and i think if it wasn't for injuries he would be viewed as a much better wide receiver than he is because when he's been healthy he's

done some good things and I think he's overlooked as a guy who's making like 15 million dollars this year and is on the team with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Because for both of those guys to be good, I think Corey Davis has to disappear. For both of who? For Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore to be good? I think Corey Davis has to disappear. It's going to be a tough offense to project. And he might just get hurt and disappear.

He's done that a lot. All right, let me move on here. There was something else I wanted to bring up. Who are you? Oh, yeah. No, just wanted to make another point about Claypool, actually, because you said he's got quarterbacks who are more willing to throw the ball downfield. And I just want to point out that Roethlisberger did have the second lowest air yards per pass attempt in the NFL

among qualified quarterbacks. Only Goff, on average, threw the ball shorter than Roethlisberger. But because he threw so much, he did have the 13th most air yards. He also had, by far, the fastest time to throw. And Kenny Pickett had the highest

time to throw of any quarterback coming out of the draft other than Malik Willis in the past few years. And Trubisky is someone who takes a long time to throw as well. And I think that of the draft other than Malik Willis in the past few years. And Trubisky is someone who takes a long time to throw as well. And I think that favors Claypool in the deeper developing routes downfield.

I also think when you look at that stat time to throw, it's usually the mobile quarterbacks who lap everyone in that, right? I think Jalen Hurts was number one in time to throw.

Typically, yeah. Because they're scrambling around. Jalen Hurts, Jesslyn Fields, Kyler Murray, those guys all have been really high in college, yeah. I really like Pickens. What did you think of Pickens? Because I think he factors into this as well.

Yeah, Pickens could be really good. And just like if they're kind of done with Claypool, then Pickens could take that role. That wouldn't shock me. I think that's within the range of outcomes for Claypool. But I don't know. I have no idea if that's going to happen. So,

we're 41 minutes in. We haven't talked much about ADP, but that's okay. We have plenty of shows to do that, and we'll get to it, but I do want to talk about this first down target stat. Yes. So, tell us about this. I'm glad you're so excited for this.

I didn't know what to expect here. First on targets, Edmund Worth, 20% more PPR points than targets that have come on all other downs over the past five seasons. And just generally speaking, players who are getting targeted on first down are players who their offenses are being intentional about getting the ball to.

And so just a few recent examples of falling first down target, uh, per hour run rate trajectories into breakouts. Uh, we've seen Debo Samuel, uh, three years ago, targeted on 25% of his first downs and then 29% the following year. And then last year, 31%, and obviously it goes nuclear, uh, Devante Adams. If you would have been following his first down target per hour run rate, you would have had a decent idea that he was going to break out in 2020.

He went from 23% to 24% to 27%, 29%, then 35%. And then last year was a 34% again. And then we kind of saw a divergence with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey in Kansas city. Four seasons ago, Tyreek was targeted on 21%. The first time Kelsey was 28%. The next year, Tyreek 23%, Kelsey 27%. Next year, Tyreek 24%, Kelsey 26%. And then last year,

finally, Tyreek overtook him 25% to 23%. So it doesn't always lead to a breakout. These are kind of cherry picking examples where the trajectory continued to follow a clear path up until the breakout. But it has in the past. And I think in general, if you find a player who the team is really being intentional about getting the ball in their hands, that's always a good thing. Okay. I love that.

I mean, if you miss that stat, first down targets have been worth 20% more than PPR, 20% more PPR points than targets on all other downs over the past five seasons. So that is incredible. And Jacob saying that these are the players that the, that the team wants to get the ball into the hands to so into the hands up. So who stood out in 2021

that could have a breakout in 2022? Of course, AJ Brown. Um, he was targeted on 39% of Tennessee's first downs, which was the highest of any player of the past five seasons. Uh, the only other players who have even had a rate above 35% are Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and Michael Thomas. Those were all 2019 or prior. So really what he's done, no one has done anytime recently. It's just ridiculous. I don't know how well it's going to translate to Philadelphia,

but he has truly on a per-route basis established himself as the league's premier target hog and area yardage hog. I don't know. I could talk about A.J. Brown all day, so I would like to just move on. Yes, please. Unless you have your big dad here. The next two are Kyle Pitts and Elijah Moore. Pitts was targeted on 29% of Atlanta's first downs, and Elijah was 27%.

Those are both really, really high for someone their age. And so what I did was just compared it to other 21-year-old rookies. And a rate this high has almost always preceded a massive breakout. So these are the players who've been targeted on at least 23% of their first downs as a 21-year-old rookie. We had Odell Beckham, 27%. The next year, he goes on to have 158 targets. The next year he had 169 targets. Jarvis Landry, 26% as a rookie, 166 targets the next year on 33% first down target per hour run rate. Mike Evans,

26%. Next year, 148 targets. Next year, 173 targets. Stefan Diggs, 26%. The next year was a 28%.

He only had 112 targets, but he also only played 13 games. Eventually did break out into, you know, 160 plus target guy, uh, on Robinson, 24%, 151 targets each of the next two years. The one exception we have was Amari Cooper, 24% as a rookie. Uh, and then his next year he had 132. So like, he isn't a true exception cause that was the highest of his career. Um, but he've never topped the number again. Um, and he didn't break out truly into like the 160 target range that a lot of these guys did

um one more possible exception is my boy t higgins 24 as a rookie and then he only had 112 targets in 14 games last year um you'll never hear me say bad word about t higgins so i'm not ready to rule into the amaraari Cooper range here yet. And then Justin Jefferson, 23% as a rookie, and then followed that up with 167 targets last year. So we've got Pitts, 29%, higher than anyone on this list. Elijah Moore, 27%, higher than anyone other than Odell Beckham. And then Jalen Waddell, 24%, right in the Allen Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper range.

And so really curious what you think about these guys, especially while like what's going to happen with Tyree kill there. Now we could see that rate drop dramatically. They really tried to get the ball in his hands last year and that could change on year two. Yeah. I mean like Tyree kills the most decorated, but all three of those guys,

like Drake Lennon was the number eight pick. Garrett Wilson was the number 10 pick, like elite. I would think wide receivers added to all three situations. So I, I like, it'd be very interesting. It's,

that's the frustrating thing. And maybe that's what somebody meant when they said a couple of weeks ago that this is the worst year or the hardest year. Like we have so much of this player movement and so much of these situations where guys have new competition that it is difficult. But man, you're selling me on Elijah Moore. He sold me on Elijah Moore last week, I think, whenever you were on. I was like, I've got to draft some Elijah Moore for sure.

And yeah, it's a hell of a list there of players who, 21-year-old, in case you missed the stat, it's a lot of numbers I know we're throwing at you. 21-year-old rookies with 23%, was that what, 23% or more of the first down targets? And what a list. So Kyle Pitts and Elijah Moore are on that list. It is really hard like i'm

the elijah moore puzzle i need somebody to draw like a map for me of how all of these different numbers like the advanced numbers could translate like how he's at this elite rate on targets per first down and then ends up with seven targets per game yeah I was thinking that too they must not have thrown a lot on first down and they must not have had a lot of first they had a very high pass rate last year so I think that was probably it and he hit the minimum qualifier like this isn't it wasn't like a 50 route sample or anything like that right uh so he was targeted on 29 was that right 27 for him pitches 27 of the routes he ran on first down correct ah all right okay okay okay well either way i mean it's an impressive company but that makes more sense no right yeah yeah yeah i was i'm with you okay i was a little confused by that too the routes

that they ran on first down that was their target share okay uh that makes more sense so elijah moore just must not have ran that many routes last year is that i had 308 routes overall so yeah pretty small sample size any i mean davis right it's not as small as cadareus tony but anytime we're talking about elijah moore is worth mentioning that it's a fairly small sample size. Okay. So at least just maybe spend the rest of the show on Kadarius Toney. Can I cut you off for the rest of this segment here and we'll go to the ADP? If so, there's one thing I do want to mention,

and it's that Mike Williams, his target per route run rate on first down spiked from 14% in 2020 to 24% last year. And Keenan Allen's fell from 26% to 22% below Mike Williams. There's a lot of guys like CeeDee Lamb, 18% to 24%. Darn, I'm only 18% to 24%. There are guys like that that are worth mentioning. But that was the one that really, really caught my eye.

And also, I would love to see i don't know how easy this to do there was a four game stretch in the middle of the season where they kind of went back to using mike williams like they had in the past they started off the year using him like they said they were going to in the offseason and the second half of the year i think he was mostly used like they said they were going to in the offseason. The fact that he cracked that list with Keenan Allen on his team, really, I'm about ready to just say Mike Williams over Keenan Allen in all formats. I've already got him over Keenan Allen in non-PPR and half PPR,

but I still have Allen in full PPR. This one, which obviously you can tell, I get really excited about the things Jacob says that confirm the things I wanted to believe and really skeptical of the things that go against what I wanted to believe. But we can't leave out the DJ Moore. Yeah, I was going to say,

let me confirm one more thing for you then. DJ Moore, first down, target per hour note of the last two years is higher than any player other than Devontae Adams. He's a stud. He's going to break out. And that's why i was mad at jamie for putting michael pitman ahead of dj moore that that specifically is not why i was mad because i didn't know that until just now but um yeah well you like both those guys who do you like better

more pitman more more i just got a text message from a random number that says, hello, can we get to know each other? That's really nice. I have really it's amazing the number of phone calls and text messages from people trying to scam me that have increased

in the last six months. I don't know who sold my information, but... I think I'm going to get together with this person. It sounds like someone who just wants a months. I don't know who sold my information, but I think I'm going to get together with this person. It sounds like someone who just wants a friend. Uh, I was trying to try to book an event and I called someone and they didn't pick up my phone. They didn't pick up my call. I left a message and they called me back and they said, sorry, I thought you were one of those people trying to sell me an extended warranty on my car. It's like, I get it, man. Oh, look at this. Spam risk. I think I'm not going to pick that up.

All right. Let's talk ADP here. Late in the show, but that's okay. Heath, run down your list of the best ADPs. The whole list? Yeah. So the quarterbacks I used where they were being drafted amongst quarterbacks. Everyone else I used where they were being drafted by total ADP. So at quarterback, I've got Jalen Hurts at QB8,

Justin Fields at QB17. Going by total ADP, I've got Aaron Jones at 23rd overall, DJ Moore at 48th overall, J.K. Dobbins and Brandon Cooks tied at 53rd overall. Dallas Goddard at 86th. Garrett Wilson at 121st. And Tyler Algier at 161st. Okay, Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields as QB 8 and 17 respectively.

And then Aaron Jones 23rd. DJ Moore 48th. Brandon Cooks and J.K. Dobbins 53rdrd, Dallas Goddard, 86, Garrett Wilson, 121, Tyler Algier, 161. Jacob, any disagreements there? Those are some of the best values that Heath has found. No, no disagreements for me. All right. The worst values are, I'll just go ahead and read them for you.

Mahomes and Burrow. I really liked when you had me read them and then you said the exact same words. Yeah. There's a reason for it. You want to guess why I did that? Because it's a long list and people can't see the list. So we used to have this guy, Jacob, we called him Shraggy B, and he would have just put the list up on the screen while I was saying list. Well, here's the thing. The YouTube audience, as much as I love them,

is not as big as the audio audience. Yeah. So I listen to our shows for this reason. You miss a lot of things. You're driving your car. You miss a lot of things. I have to rewind a lot. So if there's somebody who's reading a list of 10 people,

I am going to repeat that list, whether we're going over a draft or something like that. So don't be offended. You did a great job, but I'm going to repeat when it's just a list of things because it's hard to remember. You already talked about Mahomes and Burrow. They're going 30th and 53rd overall.

Mahomes, is he QB 2 or 3, by the way? 2. Okay. And Burrow is top 6 QB in all ADPs, basically. Two early, three, four early picks in the top 17 that Heath does not like. Najee Harris at seven. Debo at 15.

Nick Chubb at 16 in full PPR. And CeeDee Lamb at 17. So Najee at seven. Debo at 15. Chubb at 16, Lamb at 17. Again, this is full PPR. So do you disagree with any of those, Jacob? Yes. Yeah, I like CeeDee Lamb at 17.

I think he's top three or four receiver this year. Yeah. Anything else? I think Najee Harris at 7. Do you have a problem with that? I haven't ended up with much Najee. I would much rather take Justin Jefferson in that range. But I think that's a fair value for him. Okay, this will be interesting.

How about Zeke at 30, Pitts at 35? Heath says that's too early for Zeke at 30 and Pitts at 35. I agree on Zeke. I'd much rather take a receiver in that range. Pitts, it's a little higher than I like to take him. I normally grab him if he's available after 40. Something you've said now twice in the last minute that I say a lot, that I think a lot of people say a lot, we don't like running backs, is I'd rather take a receiver in that range. And I get that. But at some point, we have to draft running backs, right? So if you took two receivers, if you took Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb with your first two picks, how would you feel about Ezekiel Elliott at 30? When you still have, let's say, you still have a lot of players. I mean,

you have Cam Akers, you have Brees Hall, you have Antonio Gibson, Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, a whole host of running backs. I'm sure I'm forgetting some. Nah, I'm going A.J. Brown or T. Higgins. You're going with a third. What if it's a two-receiver league with a flex? You can't make me draft running backs. You have to. No, not Zeke.

I think there's guys in the late range that I'm comfortable with that have upside. Obviously, I would prefer to get a running back in the first two rounds. I'm not taking Zeke there. Heath, I should let you talk about these two. No, I really think you should just have Jacob give his list and then I will talk about them. I'll give Jacob's list.

This is a lot of names. Holy cow, is this a lot of names. Jacob loves A.J. Brown and T. Higgins as wide receivers 11 and 12, going 28th and 29th. His best running back ADP, one of them, is James Conner at 34th overall, RB19. DJ Moore, we know he likes Darnell Mooney

at 79th overall, wide receiver 32, and Elijah Moore at wide receiver 33. So those guys, Mooney and Moore, basically going 80th. Rashad Bateman, 89th overall wide receiver 32 and elijah moore at wide receiver 33 so those guys mooney and more basically going 80th rashad bateman 89th overall jacob was quite surprised to see him going that late as wide receiver 37 uh why don't we stop there anything that stands out so he likes aj brown and t higgins 28th and 29th he likes james connor 34th uh We know we like DJ Moore. Mooney and Elijah Moore at 80th overall, and Rashad Bateman, 89th overall. The three that I agree with the most

are DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Rashad Bateman, and that probably shows a little bit of my projections bias because I don't have to worry about who's taking targets from DJ Moore, Rashad Bateman, or Darnell Mooney. Those guys are going to get all the targets that they can earn regardless of who else is on the field. The ones where I struggle a little bit more are like I've got A.J.

Brown and T. Higgins in almost the exact same spot. So I would just say that's fine. I've got James Conner in almost the exact same spot. Man, I have no idea what's going to happen with this Jets situation but I love Garrett Wilson and it's hard for me to draft either of them as a top 30 wide receiver with a bad quarterback if I think they're both good do you like James Connor at RB19, 34th overall? I've gone back and forth between thinking that's the best value and it's a trap. So I think historically, if you would look at running backs who fall into this late round three, early round four range who are 27 years old or older, that bet has not worked out very very often but i also think connor is borderline elite as a pass catcher and the cardinals would be really unwise to have daryl williams or eno benjamin on the field on passing downs but they played chase edmonds on passing downs when chase

edmonds healthy last year and i think we saw Chase Edmonds is not better than James Conner in those situations. I'm worried they will do it again. Other players that Jacob loves, best ADP value, loves the value. Trey Burke, Drake London and Trelan Burks, sorry. Love, love,

love London. I like Burks a little too, but love, love, love London there. We're outside the top 100 here. So 108th overall, London and Berks. Cousins as QB 15. James Cook as RB 42. Garrett Wilson. I have James Cook and a Devin Singletary, so.

Okay. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no. Christian Watts. This is, I just imagine the trip that our listeners have taken over the past two seasons from me being the Devin Singletary guy

and you guys all telling me he was terrible to now you guys all saying I'm too low on Devin Singletary. It's fantastic. I just don't understand why you'd have James Cook ahead of him. Because I don't think Devin Singletary gets to play on passing downs.

He was one of the worst running backs in the NFL on passing downs. They were playing Zach Moss, who's not very good at football, over him on passing downs. And then they did their best to go get JD McKissick and lost out. No, you're right. I get that. But James Cook may not play

that much on running downs. Don't you think we're going a little bit too far with the PPR love here? I think Devin Singletary is Damian Harris, the year that Cam Newton was their quarterback. I don't remember those stats off the top of my head. I'm sorry. High yards per carry. The point being a run downs running back

whose quarterback might steal half the rushing touchdowns. Okay, let's go to the worst ADP. Sorry, that was an incomplete list. Also, Damian Pierce was excellent on his list as well. Pierce and Algier, I'm never the rookie running back guy, but Pierce and Algier, as'm never the rookie running back guy, but Pierce and Algier, as late as they're going, fantastic. And how could you not take a shot on Christian

Watson as wide receiver 55? Yeah, why not? Worst ADP, Tyreek Hill as wide receiver 8, 21st overall. Almost made my list. Damian Harris, 55th overall, running back 25. This is half PPR, by the way. Heath's was full, this is half.PR by the way this is how we Heath's was full

this is half what do you think about Harris at 55 I think in non I could get to that point almost with Harris but anything that counts catches this is too high how about Allen Robinson worst ADP wide receiver 27 69th overall and Am, wide receiver 27, 69th overall, and Amonra St. Brown at 70th overall? I agree on Amonra. I've been that way on Allen Robinson because I've just assumed that Odell Beckham's going to show up in the second half of the season. I'm coming around to Robinson being okay in that range.

Okay. And Dawson Knox, Mike Kosicki, Pat Frymouth, we know that, I'm coming around to Robinson being okay in that range okay and Dawson Knox, Mike Kosicki, Pat Frymouth we know that and Devin Singletary as well so I thought this was interesting Jacob said basically anyone drafted in the 80 to 130 range that isn't a wide

receiver or a quarterback but I think Dallas gutter, it's being drafted 86th. It's what you said. Yeah. I don't know if he isn't half PPR, but probably true. He's a,

he's like 20 spots behind Dalton Schultz and TJ Hawkinson. Yeah. I mean, look, Jacob, you would have missed out on Leonard Fournette and James Conner last year with this philosophy. I think I'm not a hundred percent sure, and James Conner last year with this philosophy, I think.

I'm not 100% sure. This is a year-over-year philosophy. That's mostly just looking at ADP this year. And it's basically when James Cook falls in that range, I think he's a great value. Okay. Isn't Miles Sanders in this range? I haven't been drafting much Miles Sanders.

I don't know. Let's see. Miles Sanders. No, he's not. Oh, he's 65th. He's one of the guys who I think is very different on the NFC average draft. I took him 96th in the Scott Fish Bowl. Right, right. Well, that's super flex.

Super flex tight end premium. That's a little bit different. So Miles Sanders is not there. Yeah, man, it's not a bad point. This is good. Rashad... Oh, you know what? Rashad Penny and Ken Walker are in that range.

Rashad Penny is in that range? I feel like he's been pushed way up. According to Fantasy Pros, he's 84th in full PBR. I'm sorry. I'll pull up half PBR. Let's just finish with that. Half PBR.

Where is Rashad Penny going? This is what people want to know. He is going 87th. Somehow Rashad Penny is going higher in full PPR than he is in half PPR. That is weird. Also going back to something I mentioned about a half hour ago. Here are the leaders last year with a minimum of 100 pass attempts in time to throw.

So the amount of time is took him to throw the football. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson, Taylor Heineke, Taysom Hill, Jacoby Reset, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield. Mostly mobile guys. Mobile or bad. Mobile or bad. Where does Jameis fit in?

I think he was actually kind of mobile last year as i recall didn't jamis run the ball a lot ish yeah more than usual scrambled a lot yeah whatever i'm not gonna let you know what i am looking it up am i really gonna say it out loud does anybody care yeah uh yes 23.7 rushing yards per game for for jamis winston that is huge awesome that is a lot of rushing yards all right i think we're done here thank you very much everybody for watching and listening very much appreciated please vote for us and we'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football today