Fantasy Football Today - Advanced Stats and Best Ball 101; Julio and Rodgers Updates (05/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 25, 2021

We're throwing some serious advanced stats at you. It's time to learn about RACR, WOPR, air yards, expected stats, broken tackles and more. First, a quick primer on what we'll be discussing on the show (2:00) including a Best Ball FAQ and then we get into the news and notes (8:40) on Julio Jones and Aaron Rodgers. If both get traded, is there a scenario in which Jones moves ahead of Davante Adams? How high could Calvin Ridley be ranked? ... It's time for advanced stats! We start with the advanced passing stats (15:45) to get a better measure of accuracy and who is throwing the ball downfield. We talk Drew Lock and Justin Herbert, among others. Advanced rushing stats (24:00) include broken tackles and who faced 8+ defenders in the box. We spend time on the Bills RBs, Mike Davis and David Montgomery. And finally, there are so many receiving stats to discuss (37:15) and we'll tell you what the advanced metrics say about Jerry Jeudy, Cooper Kupp, Marquise Brown and more ... Learn all about Best Ball leagues (50:00), how to construct your roster, if Zero-RB works in Best Ball and some of the best early and late values ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. On his way to the end zone. Tell you what, that was a spectacular play. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. What a play. Off to the races.

Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Today we are going to tell you about stats that you never knew existed and why best ball drafts are awesome and you should be doing more of them. So I hope you are ready for best ball talk and racer and whopper. Did I pronounce those right, Chris? I think so. Really? Oh, wow. I think so. Really?

Oh, wow. I was making a joke. But R-A-C-R and W-O-P-R, those are stats. We're going to be talking about them today. Pronunciations and explanations are upcoming. That's Chris Towers. I'm Adam Azer.

Heath Cummings is here as well. What's up, guys? How was your weekend? Can I ask that on Tuesday? I enjoyed watching the Hawks game on Sunday. You're such a jerk. I guess I shouldn't have asked that. Chris, I hope you had a great weekend as well.

I went to a party. Whoa. How about that? Yeah. That is the first time I've been around that many people in decades, it feels like. I went to a party on Saturday, a retirement party. Okay. So there we go.

That was probably a rager. Party animals. All right, guys. So yeah, best ball is a lot of fun, and we'll tell you about it. And Heath is going to give you some of the values that he likes in best ball drafts based on current best ball ADP, which is different than regular average draft position. And in terms of the stats, you know, we have so many we could spend a long time on it, but we'll have to give some quick explanations and some players who excel in those stats and what it means for your fantasy team.

So some general questions here to get us started. Chris, what is a stat? It is a statistic. It is a quantifiable measure of something that happened. Okay, good. I like that. Now, what is an advanced stat? A quantifiable measure of something that happened that wasn't included in newspaper box scores when sports were first started. Perfect, perfect. I mean, to a certain extent, that is pretty much the case.

Anything that we know is a normal stat and anything that generally does not get included in a broadcast is an advanced stat even if it's not actually that advanced i think a fun game would be stat or advanced stat td percentage yeah i mean i i think it could be considered an advanced stat it's literally just touchdowns divided by pass attempts so wait what is a td like actually a more useful definition is probably advanced stats are stats that show more nuance and help broaden your understanding of the game in a way that the surface level stats don't. Just one more. Touchdowns.

Started fantasy points. Big stat. Big advanced stat. I think that would be an advanced stat that has probably little predictive value. I think you had one too many words. Yeah, the word little.

Remove that. An advanced stat that has predictive value. Nailed it. Yeah, some advanced stats become so common that they don't really feel that advanced anymore. Like BABIP in baseball. Or it should be BABIP. Or like average depth of target.

Yeah. I think we're kind of reaching a point where that's less of an advanced stat these days. Yeah. But, but that's just some of the ones we'll talk about. you know, Jacob Gibbs,

you've heard him. He talked about targets per route run a few, a week ago. So that'll come up today as well. Um, Heath, more general questions. How would you describe a football to someone who has never seen one?

I think it's important to also recognize that an advanced stat is different. Whether you are on this podcast or someone who listens to this podcast, or like I go back home and hang out with all of my friends from high school who have played in the same league for 20 years now. And there are certain stats that we just think, like yards per pass attempt or touchdown rate or those things are all still advanced stats to a lot of those guys.

Because they don't consume things the same way that we do. So advanced stat could be anything. And finally, what is best ball, Heath? Tell me about it. Well, usually there's two or four golfers on a team and everybody, no. You generally speaking, like there's lots of different versions now. My favorite thing to do right now is dynasty best ball leagues.

But those usually have like matchups. So there's lots of different ways to define it. The most important is that you draft a team and you do not have to determine who you start. You draft two, three quarterbacks, two, three tight ends, a bunch of running backs, sometimes kickers, sometimes defenses. And your top, whatever the lineups are, each week starts. So we're going to be talking mostly about best ball tens or best balls, whatever, best ball leagues. And those are total points leagues. There's no weekly matchups.

There's no playoffs per se. Now, in the bigger contests, there will be. But what you're talking about is each week, my top quarterback, my top two running backs, my top three receivers, a tight end, a defense, and a flex. Out of all the players on my roster, those are the scores that will count. Now, in most best ball leagues, I think,

a majority at least, there's not any in-season waivers either. So you'll draft a roster of 20 players, and that is your team for the entire season. Yeah, and it's great. If you have a lot of fantasy leagues and you kind of get overwhelmed by the weekly transactions, the trades, the ad drops, the lineup decisions. If you just want more leagues, best ball is a good way to do it.

And we'll tell you some strategies, the best way to fill out a roster, and again, the values that Heath likes. So those are some general questions. Thank you for answering them. Good stuff. And listen, soccer, soccer, soccer, soccer. We got a lot of it on Paramount+. After a season full of drama and excitement, a Europa League champion will be crowned on Wednesday, May 26th.

European juggernauts Manchester United are looking to make room in their crowded trophy cabinet for yet another edition. Meanwhile, Spain's Villarreal are competing in their first ever European final as they look to write their name in the history books and secure a spot in next season's Champions League. You can watch the match via Paramount Plus in the CBS Sports app. That's huge right there. This is appointment viewing here. And for those of you wondering about the Champions League final on Saturday, yep, you can watch that the exact same way via Paramount Plus in the CBS Sports app. So there's a lot of great stuff on Paramount Plus,

but the soccer coverage is absolutely top notch. So the CBS app, we've got Paramount Plus in there. Get on it. Watch the game on Wednesday or the match on Wednesday. Watch the final this weekend on Paramount Plus. A couple other things I want to tell you about. We have a mailbag show that's going to record on Wednesday,

air on Thursday, publish on Thursday. And we're going to be live tonight, baby, on YouTube, youtube.com slash fantasy football today, 7 p.m. Eastern, answering all of your questions. You two, both of you tonight with me? Is that the case? I will be there. I probably will not be there right at 7 p.m.

I'm going to go for the fashionably late. I'll be there at 6.55, Adam. I'm the guy who shows up to a party early. And if you're going to be fashionably late, you better be fashionable. Anyway, join us, the three of us, tonight, 7 p.m. Eastern, Tuesday night, youtube.com slash fantasyfootball.

Today, we will be answering your questions. We had a ton of questions last week, so I'm sure we'll get more this week. Subscribe to the channel, turn notifications on so you know exactly when we so I'm sure we'll get more this week. Subscribe to the channel. Turn notifications on so you know exactly when we're live, and we'll see you. YouTube.com slash Fantasy Football Today tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern.

All right, I know you guys covered a little bit. Well, you weren't there, but I know this was touched on a little bit yesterday, but we'll get more into it today. Julio Jones says he's out of there. So he wants to be traded. That was a weird thing that happened on that show. But anyway, here are a few questions. Oh, we're going to combine this with Aaron Rodgers, who did not report to OTAs. And he praised the Packers organization

and left out Brian Guttenkos. It's pretty obvious. It seems obvious what he wants. He praised literally everyone who's ever been associated with the Green Bay Packers except the current front office. Yeah, so it seems like we know what he wants. But here's a question for you.

What would it take? What scenario would it take for you to move Julio Jones ahead of Calvin Ridley? I'm sorry. Ahead of Devontae Adams. Better question. No.

I don't think there's anything. Aaron Rodgers gets traded. Right. Julio Jones has no chance to jump Devontae Adams in your rankings. I mean, Julio Jones... Devontae Adams has been really good

when he played without Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, it was eight games. It was really only the one stretch in 2018. 17, I believe. Yeah, but he was still really, really good. And I just think given injury concerns about Julio Jones and the fact that he's 32 years old, I don't think there's any way i would take davante adams over

him like maybe if he got traded to baltimore there was no way you would take jones over adams jones over adams sorry yeah would baltimore be good like that's the thing i think we got a question on twitter or somewhere what is the place or maybe we got it on the show yesterday um where's the landing spot for julio jones where his value would increase from where it currently is? And I don't know that there is one for me. Yeah, I don't know about increase substantially. Because the Falcons are going to be a high-value passing game. And because he's going to be...

I still think if not the number one target it'll be right there with Ridley I think the Chargers could be a lateral move among teams that have a realistic chance of like you know having the cap space to do it

I think the Chargers are probably the best option the Colts that's the other one. I initially had them. I wrote about this for the newsletter yesterday. I initially had the Colts number one, and then I kind of gave it some thought and realized, I don't know if I would want to trust Carson Wentz to say that right now. So I think it's – I went Chargers, Colts, Jaguars

would be my top three preferred landing spaces, places among teams who have a realistic chance of doing it without having to like make three other moves to make it happen. By the way, I know Heath, I'm sorry. Heath, yes, you were on the show yesterday. Chris was not. Anyway, what about this?

Next question. If Julio Jones gets traded, Calvin Ridley is wide receiver blank. Six. Three. Yeah. I have him 10 right now in full ppr i think i like six as an answer um but it could be a little bit higher three yeah i have him seven currently and justin jefferson is six and they're separated by one point so i think it would just be

ridley above jefferson There's a pretty big gap between Tyree Kill, DeAndre Hopkins, Stephon Diggs, Devontae Adams, and Michael Thomas and Calvin Ridley in my group. I'm not sure he would quite get there. Matt Ryan wasn't

great last season when Julio Jones didn't play. Obviously, I think with Kyle Pitts added, he would hopefully play better. But there were definitely some points where Calvin Ridley and Matt Ryan just couldn't hook up. And whether that was because of the absence of Julio Jones or whether it was just some bad timing, it's hard to say. Yeah, I'm chalking it up to a fluke. I mean, they had one, but you could be Julio Jones influence. They had one game where he, but it could be. I mean, it could be Julio Jones' influence.

They had one game where he didn't have a catch. He had no catches on five targets. And he was banged up that game, I think, right? Yeah, only five. Yes, I believe so. It was against Green Bay. Only five targets, which is weird. But basically, in the nine games he played

without Julio Jones or with Jones leaving early, Ridley was on pace for... He had over 10 targets per game. He averaged over 10 targets per game. He could be the number one wide receiver. That's the thing. I think there's that possibility, which is why. Calvin Ridley had 2,000 air yards last season.

That was almost 300 more than any other wide receiver in the NFL. He just had this outrageously valuable role in the Falcons offense. And I can't put him above. I think that Hopkins Hill digs Thomas Adams group. I think that's kind of cemented for me, but I think he would be the next man up. Totally get that. All right,

let's, and let's get into our advanced stats here the other report was that that i wanted to bring up today sports illustrated saying russell wilson is committed to the seahawks for 2021 so hopefully we can stop with the trade rumors at least for this year yes one more that happened and i don't we don't know if we even discussed it but antonio brown was actually not yet on the buccaneers because he had failed his physical at some point. He had knee surgery. He passed his physical today and is at the facility.

Okay, good stuff. I want Tom Brady and no other Buccaneers this year. Maybe Brown, actually, if I can get him the ninth or tenth round. Oh, yeah, he's cheap. I got to figure he'd be pretty good in best ball. I was actually considering him for my favorite late round values but when i put the list together he still wasn't actually signed okay okay so let's talk about advanced stats first we'll do best ball later and i don't think we'll get to any emails today but remember we have a mailbag tomorrow with your emails and your apple

podcast questions if you submit your apple podcast questions today, and I said it's tomorrow, it's actually going to publish on Thursday, but if you submit them today, I don't know that they will be in Apple on time for them to be read on the show. But don't worry,

we're committed to reading your Apple podcast questions if you leave us a five-star review. So if it doesn't happen this week, it'll happen next week. Okay, so look, Chris, let's just do a quick explainer. There's no way we can talk about all of these.

We have a lot of stats here. So, with that said, here are the advanced stats that you wanted to bring up for passing in the passing game. Intended air yards. Yeah, and just to highlight, intended air yards is one of those things you can find on Pro Football Reference if you go to the player's advanced stats or the advanced stats leaderboards, and intended air yards is just how far down the field the receiver was targeted.

So that applies for both quarterbacks and wide receivers. And Tom Brady led the NFL in intended air yards last season, just actually almost 200 yards ahead of Matt Ryan. So he was taking a lot of shots last season. And basically, deeper targets tend to have more value. It's not necessarily true of everybody, but it's generally true. You want someone who's airing it out. Okay.

We'll go through the passing stats for now, and then we'll come back and talk about some of the players that we wanted to highlight on target rate. Just how accurate or how... Oh, go ahead. Yeah, just it's basically accuracy, right? How often the pass was considered catchable. Yeah, and is this a better stat than just completion percentage

it's a better indicator of accuracy than completion percentage completion percentage is a uh kind of combination of what the wide receiver and what the quarterback are doing whereas accuracy rate in theory is on the quarterback i would assume there is generally an inverse relationship between um air yards and accuracy rate yes so lamar jackson is a quarterback who a lot of people will talk about the accuracy rate or the completion percentage and say well he's not an accurate thrower and i don't think lamar jackson's the most accurate thrower in the nfl but um there are also various metrics that weight um accuracy based on depth of target and the further down the field a target is the less likely it is to be caught but the more valuable the target is so that's the trade-off that you're making um and there are also like passes in the middle of the field generally have

a higher accuracy and completion rate than passes down the sidelines as well which you know is intuitive yeah and also chris mentioned you can go to pro football reference and see the intended air yards just to go back to that first stat and just who throws the ball downfield but you could also sort intended air yards by pass attempt. So that's very helpful because then you can factor in, well, they just didn't throw that much. That's why his intended air yards were so low. But if you do it per pass attempt, you get a pretty good

idea there. Pressure rate. How often a quarterback's pressured per dropback. Expected completion percentage. So that's the one that I was saying you know is is weighted by okay uh where on the field to throw is that's actually an nfl next gen stat that i think there are other versions of it but that's the easiest one to find um because it comes through

the nfl's tracking system it's basically um comparing all throws to that area of the field historically, how often they are completed, and then whether a player is doing better or worse than that. Okay. All right. So that'll be interesting. And expected completion percentage is something that Heath's home league of 20 years is probably never going to be talking about. I don't think they're going to graduate to that one.

I have a question. I'm going to go back to the... We're supposed to keep going through the stats. We just have one more. Time in pocket. Is that pretty self-explanatory? Yeah. Either how long it takes for a quarterback to be sacked, to scramble, or to release

the ball. Okay, cool. Go ahead, Heath. Two quarterbacks had the exact same on-target percentage and one of them averaged 7.8 intended area yards per attempt. The other one was a 7.4. And one of them left about, let's say, I guess 5% better in terms of intended air yards per attempt. Throwing it down the field more. So you would say that that quarterback is better?

Was more accurate last year. Yeah. It seems like. Yeah, I don't know why you're bringing... Didn't we make a pact to not bring up Daniel Jones? No, no. Daniel Jones is not on this... No.

No, the quarterback who had the exact same on-target percentage as Gardner Minshew, I don't believe, was Daniel Jones. Daniel Jones, I don't know. He was well behind Gardner Minschu in terms of on target percentage. Um, oddly enough, this is someone we've talked.

This is not about Gardner Manchu. Um, but he did lose his job last year. And the number like six quarterback in fantasy, um, Justin Herbert had the same on-target percentage and a lower intended air yards than Gardner Minshew. That seems like a negative sign

for sustaining the level of production he had last year. Yeah, I mean, there are several reasons, I think, to consider Justin Herbert a regression candidate. One of them is that he had five rushing touchdowns which probably won't be sustainable um but yeah that could be a reason to you know think that justin herbert's going to see some regression but there there's a lot that can go into that because you know on target rate can also be influenced by how open a receiver gets or how pressured a quarterback is you know that there's it's not just like it is a quarterback stat but obviously everything in football is not just a quarterback stat so um it it does look like the lowest on target rate for a quarterback

who threw at least 100 passes last year was jalen hurts and he was quite a ways behind everybody else, including Jake Luton. Yeah, his average depth of target was 9.1, which is quite high for a starting quarterback. But I don't think anybody really would find that all surprising. He was a young quarterback who was thrown in in the middle of the season, wasn't necessarily considered this incredible prospect. And the fact that he scrambles a lot probably means

that he's making more throws from off-platform than your typical quarterback. I just want to be clear. I did not bring up Daniel Jones and was in no way trying to talk about Daniel Jones. I just want to be clear. I did not bring up Daniel. I had no intention.

I'm not even going to finish his name. Okay, he's Beetlejuice to me. I'm just not bring up Dane. I had no intention. I'm not even going to finish his name. He's Beetlejuice to me. I'm just not going to say it. Okay, so Chris, as we look at these advanced stats for passing, which quarterbacks stand out to you in some way? Very vague question.

I think it's interesting to look at expected completion percentage right and and you know one thing that you can do there on nfl next gen stats is compare expected completion percentage to actual completion percentage so who was completing uh more of their passes than they otherwise would be expected to deshaun watson was number one josh allen was number two aaron rogers kirk cousins and russell wilson that's hello pretty impressive from kirk yeah yeah um now that could just be that kirk cousins

has two really really good wide receivers who do a really good job of making contested and difficult catches um but you know i think it's a good sign for cousins i think it's a good sign for allen that he was that high. You know, I think the receiving core helps. I think the addition of Stefan digs obviously helps, but, um, you know, that, that makes me feel a little better about those guys. The other thing to consider though, would be, you know, whether that's sustainable year over year is a, is a different question.

All right, let's go on to, uh, unless Heath, you have any more quarterbacks you want to talk about, let's move on to rushing. Whether that's sustainable year over year is a different question. All right, let's go on to, unless Heath, you have any more quarterbacks you want to talk about, let's move on to rushing. Yeah. Good? Okay. Good. Rushing, yards before contact, yards after contact,

broken or missed tackles. These types of stats are also available on Pro Football Reference. The stat where David Montgomery does pretty well here. I think Devin Singletary yards... Was it his broken tackles? He finished higher than I would have thought. Antonio Gibson was great

after contact. Let's start with those. Yards before contact, yards after contact, and forcing missed tackles and broken tackles. Who stands out in a positive or negative way, Chris? So, in terms of broken or missed tackles forced per rush attempt, Mike Davis was number one, Antonio Gibson, David Montgomery, Zach Moss, and Austin Eckler.

Which is kind of interesting. it's an interesting list but well I think I will say go ahead oh go ahead no I was just gonna say like we talked about this a little bit yesterday with Mike Davis how he was like number 27 or 28 in early ADP at running back and there's been a lot of man he really fell apart at the end of the year and I think that's true but we've all seen his thighs now so that clearly won't happen again um i i just more and more start to think we're really overthinking this mike davis thing he's just you think he's good and he'll keep the job and i think he's good enough if with this competition i probably need to have him as a top 20 running back yeah i mean there's always the chance that he just doesn't get the role unexpectedly but

assuming he does i think he probably should be a top 20 running back i've got him 21 but um i could absolutely move him up and you know i think that might be a little pessimistic if he is the starter but i don't personally i don't know how much advanced stats for running backs matter because separating running back skill from offensive line play is really difficult and just from overall team quality you, this is one of those stats where does it really tell me all that much that, you know, Mike Davis had one broken tackle every 7.9 rush attempts?

I don't know. Because broken tackles are easier to get on, you know, like runs where you're not trying to figure out the best way to phrase it. But basically when you have space, it's easier to break a tackle when it's one person trying to tackle you. So, you know,

it depends on the running back situation. And like David Montgomery coming out of college was a like all time. Great broken tackle guy. That was one of the things he had going for him. And has been in the pros. Yeah. And he has been in the pro that actually really jumps out to me because I think people are wondering,

sorry to go back to just a basic stat, but yards per carry the first 20 plus games of his career. He was, I mean, I forgot the stat. I have it in my notes. Yeah. Well under four yards per carry.

And then the last six games of his career, he's the best running back in fantasy, basically. And you just have to wonder how good... People have to ask, how good is David Montgomery? The thing I would say, and it goes back to what Chris said, because I mostly agree with not relying too heavily on these types of things at

running back and not making too much about running back skill. But the thing that I, the reason I brought those numbers up last year in the middle of the year was that the consensus had developed that David Montgomery sucks. And I don't think if you're in the top 10,

top five at broken tackles per rush attempt that you probably suck. That doesn't make any sense. Twice in a row, too. I think he was eighth in 2019, but second in 2020. That's impressive. For 100 carries, sure. What's that?

Where are we on Todd Gurley? He sucks. Yeah, I don't think he's very good anymore. Why? What are you going to say? He was top 10 in broken tackles per rush attempt this year. He was number 10 in broken tackles per rush attempt this year. He was number 10 last year.

Phillip Lindsey was 6th in 2019. Devin Singletary was 5th. I just... I don't know. Devin Singletary sucks. I don't think it's nothing, but it is very far down the list of things I'm looking for. When I'm thinking about running backs,

I'm very much in the running backs. Don't matter camp. I don't, I don't know if we've ever, I haven't really heard many discussions about that on this podcast, but I'm, I'm probably the most extreme on that. I think situation is almost everything with running backs.

And so when I'm, I'm looking for running backs, it's better chances of getting red zone work or green zone work or goal line work. There are chances of getting receptions. That's what really matters to me. And so the fact that Zach Moss had the fourth highest missed tackles per rush attempt, okay, he can miss tackles.

But unless Josh Allen's going to stop vulturing goal line touchdowns and unless Zach Moss is going to stop playing all the passing downs, it doesn't really mean anything to me. It doesn't make me want to draft Zach Moss. You still have to do a lot of other things besides missed tackles. It's a nice thing for a running back to have.

Sure. Yeah, situation's more important. And also Singletary ranked very highly in 2019 in broken tackles and moss in 2020 so you know i i still don't know who's better there yeah i don't i'm not sure i'm not that's that's my issue with moss and singletary is i don't know the bills know who's better but um heath has Singletary as a good value in best ball. We'll talk about that. Yeah, I think Singletary.

Opportunity's great. I've drafted a lot of Singletary this year. I don't know that. I don't think Mike Davis could be a top five running back over the course of a season. But I don't think you care about that when you're drafting most running backs. The elite running backs are great. They're truly truly great they're not just taking advantage of great

opportunities you know but what i digress let's get back to the stats here but like knowing that cam acres was 46th and missed tackle rate last season does not change my view of cam acres one bit that all other things being equal i would rather him have broken more tackles but it just it does nothing to really change how i view him where was daryl henderson i don't think he had enough care to third oh okay there yeah he did okay sorry let's move on here um uh i don't know if there's any other guys you want to talk about there but rush yards over expected and then they've you've got stats on eight plus defenders in the box but what is rush yards over expected it's very similar to completion percentage over

expected nfl next gen stats um nextgenstats.nfl.com if you wanted to check these out basically based on where the running back starts, where the defense is, all these other factors in their tracking, how many yards a running back was expected to get based on historical data and how many they actually did. The leaders in that were Nick Chubb, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Ronald Jones, and Derrick Henry. What that suggests to me is one,

Lamar Jackson kind of breaks this stat for his running backs, which is not surprising. The presence of Lamar Jackson in the rushing game and in the read option game just is such an advantage, and that's why J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both probably going to rush for over five yards per attempt. But it does make me think, like, J.K. Dobbins is really good. Is he that much better than Gus Edwards as a as a rusher yes i'm not that sure at least in this offense yeah i i uh i might just be i'm

probably just being biased and basing it on on college i probably shouldn't at this point because edwards is obviously proving himself but i think think certainly coming out of college and in college, J.K. Dobbins was in another stratosphere. Heath, what's your take on the two? I think J.K. Dobbins is better than Gus Edwards. How much better and how much it matters in that offense, I don't really know, but I think Gus Edwards is good enough to be well above average in the Ravens' offensive scheme, and most running backs probably are. Yeah, I think what it really is is that the primary driver of value there is the Ravens' offense. The biggest thing that you can separate yourself with in terms of skill set for fantasy production is being good in the passing game, And neither of them are going to do that anyway. Chris, you did not bring up the PFF elusivity tracker. Yeah, I mean, isn't that basically just like

missed tackles per rush attempt? I don't know. I think they have an explanation for it somewhere key yes their elusivity is a pff signature stat measuring success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking okay so it's their face on like yards before carry after contact or yards per carry before and after contact missed tackle percentage which are you know i don't know how how useful it is as an all-in-one number um when you've got access to both of those separately but yeah it's it's there well dante

moncrief is number one in this rating he had one carry for four yards and scored an 800 in elusivity so i mean that's very elusive um yeah it's another thing you look at if you have pff any other running backs that we should talk about heath oh oh eight defenders in the box anything there uh yeah so that that's mostly just a that's a role thing and so running backs who rush and obvious rushing situations are going to see eight defenders in the box. More often, the highest percentage is last year or some lower end guys who don't really matter.

But Damian Harris, Cam Akers, uh, Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, uh, and Nick Chubb were probably the most relevant guys at the top of the leaderboard. And those guys also generally speaking, broke a lot of tackles except for Akers. And those guys, generally speaking, outperformed their rushing yards over expectations. Akers being the one counterexample. And so maybe that'll just be an issue for him moving forward. And maybe that is an issue maybe he he can't break tackles as well as your average running back and it limits his upside

i don't necessarily think so but you know he wasn't a super productive rusher in college as well so you know who knows it gives you something to think about. Heath, any reaction? No. Well, I'll say this. Those players you mentioned, give me the list again of players who saw the most highest percentage of eight defenders in the box, or whatever it was.

Yeah. Damian Harris, Cam Akers, Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt. Low passing offenses. Well, that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. And I remember seeing a stat about Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara

a few years ago that they saw. I mean, they were two of the best, most efficient rushers in the NFL, and they had one of the lowest rates of eight defenders in the box. So the better your quarterback. So I think Cam Akers might see fewer stacked boxes this year. That could help. Yeah, maybe. Yeah, I mean, that was the Rams offense last year,

whether by necessity or by design, was all about short stuff. And, you know, not just, I mean, they threw the ball, I mean, a decent amount. It was just, even the throws were mostly short throws. You know just even the throws were mostly short throws. Even the throws were mostly designed to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers, preferably in space so they can make plays with it.

All right, we're going to take a break. We got receiving stats and best ball when we come back on Fantasy Football Today. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations. Or visit SecurianCanada.ca.

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See shopify.com slash POS20 for details. So let's take a look at the advanced stats in the world of receiving. So target share, percentage of the team's total targets that any particular player got. Who had the highest target share last year? Devontae Adams was 34%. DeAndre Hopkins was 31%. They were the only two above 30%. Air yards and average depth of target are interesting.

Okay, so this is really, you know, how many downfield throws. Okay, so air yards, how far down the field the player was when he was targeted. Average depth of target is air yards divided by total targets. So Heath, are air yards and a high ADOT, are those good?

Do we want to see that? That's a loaded question. And I would say that I generally lean, and I think this would be a great conversation to have Ben Gretsch on here, because this is where we, I think, have two different types of conversations. In a best ball format, I like that.

In a full PPR league, I don't generally think those guys are not only as reliable, but, or like consistent, but I just, I don't think those are necessarily the guys you want to target. Um, because that that's generally speaking.

Now we say that's the boom bust profile. Tyler Lockett had one of his most boom bust seasons ever last year and I think his average depth of target may have been as low as it's been in five years last year so it's not like it's a loaded question and it's not one that I would necessarily like cull my list of wide receivers but by removing the guys with too high of an average depth of target what I would say is i like a higher average depth of i let me clarify i don't want the guys at the top or the bottom okay i would i would look at it like this average depth of target or area air yards are almost like a measure of potential the the more air yards you get typically means one you're getting more targets and two

you're getting more valuable targets because longer throws are more likely to result in touchdowns they're more likely to result in chunk plays they're more likely to produce big points and so you want the high volume receivers with high depths average depth of target is really the that's the perfect synthesis of it you don't want you know marquise brown had a 13.1 average depth of target that's really high but because it was only 99 targets because his catch rate was relatively low you don't necessarily you know that's not necessarily super valuable although we did see in the second half of the season that there was latent potential in marquise brown's profile that wasn't being wasn't showing up in games until later in the season so who else so who do you like then who who is a kind of a sleeper in terms of air yards a dot

i mean i i think think Marquise Brown is actually a really good example of the kind of receiver in season. I think it's more useful in season because that's when you know what a role is. Roles can change. DJ Moore went from a kind of average-ish average depth of target guy to

a deep ball guy last season. And he's another guy who we saw. It took a little while for him to be consistent enough for that to matter. But there was big potential in his role. But I think you can look at like, Brandon Ayuk's a really interesting one. His average depth of target was 9.3, which isn't huge.

But in that offense, it is. Because the 49ers offense is predicated around short throws, getting the ball in the receiver's hands in space. Yeah, if you add together Iyuk's ADOT and Debo Samuel's ADOT, I believe it's still less than Marquise Brown's, right? I think Debo Samuel might have had a negative ADOT last season. I thought it was 2.5.

Two yards, yes, yes. Okay, yes. One of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen. He was a running back, basically. Yeah, all right. I thought Jerry Judy was part of this discussion. Am I wrong? Yes, yes, sorry.

Jerry Judy is a good example of a player who was seeing a lot of downfield targets last season, but you want a guy who, one, can catch them, which was an issue for Jerry Judy last season. I don't think it will be an issue for him moving forward, but it was last season. And I think the bigger issue there is Drew Locke. Drew Locke has been a very aggressive passer. He's got a little Jameis Winston in him. He doesn't do the good Jameis Winston things enough, and he does the bad Jameis Winston things too much

to get the most out of it. But yeah, that is... Jerry Judy is absolutely a player who has a lot of latent potential. You know, it needs to show up in games, but the way he was used last season was what you want to see from a number one wide receiver yeah heath anything to add uh any well i think like with with judy especially it's it goes back to what percentage of those like it's

great to get deep targets but we saw with curtis Curtis Samuel two years ago. We saw it with Judy last year. If those targets are not deemed catchable and are literally not catchable, then their value is greatly diminished. In fact, zero. So he is someone that, and I thought going into last year, that it wouldn't take very long before he proved to be the best wide receiver in Denver. I think he proved last year he's better at getting open than Courtland Sutton is. Now, he's not shown an ability to catch the ball in traffic or adjust to throws like Sutton does.

It's easy to take what he did last year from a dynasty perspective and say, you know what? This guy still has number one wide receiver potential. Yeah. Yes. And if Sutton weren't coming back, it would be so appealing. But Sutton is coming back. Just for this year, anyway, I mean...

And then... Yeah, go ahead. Go ahead, Chris. I will point out, Cortland Sutton wasn't very good with Drew Locke either. I think that there's a common thread here, and I don't think it's the wide receivers. Yeah, but this is...

I brought this up a few weeks ago, and you guys... I think it was both of you were on the show. I don't think you guys really had a concern. But when you talk about advanced stats, you just look at intended air yards per pass attempt. Drew Locke is way above Teddy Bridgewater. So if they look,

if they get Aaron Rogers is a different story, but if they, if they go to Teddy Bridgewater, what does that mean for Jerry Judy? Does that, does that change what kind of targets he gets? And I bet his catch rate would go way up. I think it'd be good because he's,

he came out, he came out as the best route runner in, in college. And he was apparently as the best route runner in college. And he was apparently a pretty good route runner last year. The drops were weird. But I don't want him to just be like a super high A dot guy. I want him to be more of a versatile receiver. And I actually wonder if you have his average yards per route run,

was he just not targeted on his shorter routes? And basically, it was only as deep, mostly his deep routes he was getting thrown to? For a guy who's the best route runner in college football and looks like he should be a great route runner in the NFL, I don't think that he should be among the leaders in ADOT. I would say what you're hoping for with a guy like Jerry Judy is a similar role to what DJ Moore had with Teddy Bridgewater. But I think that also highlights some of the limitations there because

Moore had a super valuable role. He's a great playmaker after the catch. He was seeing a lot of deep passes last season, but continued to struggle with touchdowns. And I think that was at least partially a Teddy Bridgewater issue. Teddy Bridgewater left a lot of deep throws on the field. I think Teddy Bridgewater, his overall effect on the Broncos offense is he raises the floor and lowers the ceiling. And so Drew Locke is the ceiling. Teddy Bridgewater is the floor. Drew Locke, I think is a lot less likely to hit his ceiling, but if he did, it could be a really good offense and teddy bridgewater gives it a much higher chance of being an average offensive drew lock doesn't do that and so when i look at jerry judy and courtland sutton they're both downfield guys what you're hoping for from judy is that he

can combine the high average depth of target even if it's it's not 14 yards per target with the ability to see number one wide receiver type of targets. So maybe more like what Stefan Diggs did last season. Okay, two more advanced stats, then we'll get to best ball.

Racer and Whopper receiver air conversion ratio, RACR. What the hell is that? Yeah, that's receiving yards divided by air yards. And so that's basically, to oversimplify it, it's a measure of how efficient a receiver is at turning his opportunity into production.

That is a vast oversimplification, but if you consider air yards to be potential or a representative of potential racer is how good they are at turning that potential into reality okay so who's the best racer out there uh so last season debo samuel had a 3.8 racer he had 3.8 receiving yards for every air yard because he was basically used as an extension of the rushing. He doesn't count. He does not count. He counts a little bit.

A lot of these guys are going to be running backs, but in terms of higher volume, Cooper Cup had a 1.25 on 124 targets, so 1.25 of his 1.25 receiving yards for targets, so 1.25 of his – he had 1.25 receiving yards for every air yard.

I know he wasn't great for fantasy last season, but I think that does just highlight how good he is with the ball in his hands. Juju Smith-Schuster is another guy. And Robert Woods, that was the Rams' offense last year, was put in their hands and let them make plays. I think both both those guys cooper cup and robert woods are so good with the ball in their hands that the fact that they're likely to get deeper targets this season it makes me really really like them i have them both as top 15 wide

receivers i know i'm on an island on that one i know uh are you i'm not far behind yeah because i have robert woods as a top 10 wide receiver. I'm drafting Robert Woods in pretty much every league we've got. And it's basically for both of them. It's a combination of they're going to score a lot more touchdowns this season. I think they are at least cup is Woods did have seven, I think. And they're just going to get more valuable targets. And I think they're both really good wide receivers.

Yeah, I've got Woods 15th and Cup 16th, and it's a great transition into best ball ADP because Cooper Cup is my favorite wide receiver to target in the first five rounds of the best ball draft. Okay, but we have one hamburger left. It's the Whopper. So just real quick, WOPR, weighted opportunity rating. Go ahead.

It's basically a combination of the share of a team's targets and the share of a team's air yards that a player gets it's weighted to the team so it's a measure of production or potential within a team context um which is to say that not every whopper is made equal sometimes they put all the pickles in one spot sometimes they spread them out nicely so that you actually get a pickle with every bite oh um burger ruiner so so basically like if somebody's trying to um sell you on a player based on their whopper they might be set like telling you a whopper of the stories yes yeah no yeah that that's like but on the other hand devonta adams michael thomas deandre Hopkins, Stephon Diggs, and Calvin Ridley were the top five last season.

That's a pretty good... If you told me that was the top five wide receivers in football for 2021, that's not that different from what my list would actually look like. So... Yeah, it's just... Give me a player that could be a sleeper. Go.

Based on Whopper. Oh, a sleeper. Go. Based on Whopper. Oh, a sleeper. Well, is there... It's still Marquise Brown. Yeah, Marquise Brown always looks really good. Just keep drafting Marquise Brown. Oh, well, they have Rashad Bateman now, so that could be a problem for Marquise Brown.

All right, fantasy football. We have the meats. Let's go over to best ball. Heath, we got three minutes left for best... No, we have a little big time. Sounds about right. A little big time for you. Maybe we can work in some dynasty in this segment as well.

Okay, so give me your roster construction if you have 20 roster spots in a best ball league. Assuming you have to start a defense, but not a kicker. I want a minimum of two quarterbacks, two tight ends, and two defenses. Whether I

draft three of any of those positions or maybe even four in some really odd circumstances will depend on the quality of the players that I have as my first and second options at that position. It's obviously more risky to go with two quarterbacks or two tight ends because you lose one for the season

and you're automatically taking a zero on somebody's bye week. I think it probably makes sense with the extra week added to maybe add a couple roster spots in basketball leagues. But the thing is, mostly you want to have a bunch of running backs and wide receivers. I don't mind. One of my favorite values in the late rounds is Taysom Hill.

He's a guy who his current ADP suggests he's available in the last round of best ball drafts. He's a guy who I would break my rule and possibly draft a fourth quarterback because if I think he's worth the last round pick, if Jameis Winston had already been named a starter because of Jameis record, Winston's track record of getting benched at certain points during seasons. It's a possibility.

And the combination of that and Taysom Hill's upside if he's the starter. I hate watching Taysom Hill play quarterback for everybody else, but for him, he's got top five upside. And I mean, even beyond that, there's at least an outside chance that there might be one week during the season, even if he's beyond that, like there's at least an outside chance that there might be one week during the season,

even if he's not starting where he just happens to score two touchdowns and gets like 60 yards and might actually be better than one of your quarterbacks. I think Taysom Hill and best ball with not even your last round pick, you should definitely reach a couple of rounds for him at least to make sure you get him. I think he's a tremendous player for that format. Heath, does anything change

from best ball to just a regular redraft in terms of how you value the elite tight ends or the elite quarterbacks? Does that kind of strategy change? I think that is certainly up for debate. I've heard compelling

arguments on both sides of that. For me, I'm probably more likely to take one of the elite tight ends or elite quarterbacks because I like the flexibility that gives me, especially at quarterback where you don't have to worry about injury quite as much if you're not drafting Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. It gives you the flexibility of being able to draft an extra running back or wide receiver because you don't anticipate needing a third quarterback.

How does your... Do you think zero RB is more or less viable in basketball? It's more fun because you can... And I think it's a little bit more viable as well because you can take both Devin Singletary and Zach Moss in round 11 and round 12 right now, or 10 and 11 right now, based on ADP, and you don't have to decide which one of those guys

you're going to start. Heath, are these 10-team leagues or 12-team leagues? 12-team. Okay. So I think it's slightly more viable. The problem is some of my favorite values in the first five rounds are running backs, and there are so many wide receivers.

It's actually probably a little bit easier to do either zero running back or zero wide receiver, which is why I end up with more Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Darren Waller, George Kittles in the early rounds yeah because one thing i'm thinking is that you know historically over the last five years or so but also in the longer term elite wide receivers have

less game-to-game predictability than elite running backs um and so i'm just curious how that, uh, how that impacts what type of strategy is best and whether, you know, even if they score the same amount of points as an elite wide receiver, more valuable than an elite running back in this format or, or vice versa. Um, I would guess it's the elite running back just because there, there are more games where they're likely to be in your score than the elite wide receivers, but the elite wide receivers' biggest scores will likely be higher. Right. Well, and there are a lot more wide receivers in that wide receiver three range that are going to have big games, like without an injury. They're just going to have, like Deshaun Jackson and guys like that when he plays. There are probably 55 wide receiver threes in the NFL right now in terms like for fantasy. Well, my thought was to not gamble too much on a zero RB just based on my best ball league last year. I had Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders, and I loved it.

You said the word gamble and this like it's key there i talked about at the beginning there's so many different even within just best ball tens there's a difference between whether you're playing a winner take all or a top three or a 50 50 in a 50 50 i don't want to gamble much at all because all i have to do is finish in the top half of the league if you're playing in a winnerall, then I do not care at all about what my floor is. Because if I don't finish first, it's over. But I think the zero RB strategy in a regular redraft league is sort of based on,

well, I'll just use the waiver wire points and pick up the injury replacements. And you can't do that in best ball. No, you need to draft them. But can you draft them? Or is it just too hard to predict who those guys are you draft them, or is it just too hard to predict who those guys are going to be? It is a little bit hard to predict,

but you got an extra five rounds compared to a CBS draft, and in some formats, you have even more rounds. So you just draft more of them. Like, if I'm going zero RB, I might end up with eight running backs drafted in the double-digit rounds

or after round seven okay okay um let's keep going here um so handcuffed running backs like a tony pollard more valuable in this format or no yeah yes in terms of drafting because you're not going to have the opportunity to add those guys off the waiver where like there's a chance somebody drafts tony pollard and drops him by week four right yeah okay um your favorite early values so cooper cup you mentioned earlier but who are the other ones that you really like early yeah just going in order joe mixon currently rb12 at the end of round two and i have i think every single year that i've worked at cbs said joe mixon was not going to be worth the first round pick where he was being drafted this might be the

year he's worth the first round pick and now he's going at the end of round two yep yep um and i are in total agreement on that it's i i agree for redraft he's like 15 in nfc adp since uh may 1st i think i'm on jackson is the number four quarterback at the end of the fourth round he's my number two quarterback um another one of those guys that i i think is like he obviously has the enormous upside on a week-to-week basis we saw that at the end of the year when he was running for 100 yards and a touchdown every single week but also like his down year last year he averaged 25 fantasy points per game. Almost everyone else, that's their career year, a fantastic year.

I love Lamar Jackson, especially behind Murray and Allen. No one will be surprised to hear me say Josh Jacobs in round five, but also Chris Carson is going after Josh Jacobs later in round five, and then Cooper Cup. Wow, Carson.

He's basically per game top 15 three years in a row. So that's what you need to know when he's RB21 in ADP. And your favorite late round values? Usually it's one at a time or just all five of them. What you did was good, and we'll come back to them. Jalen Waddell and Terrace Marshall are a pair of rookie wide receivers who who i have i think will be better in best ball than they are in redraft and i have them ranked higher in redraft and they're being drafted in best ball so i think they are uh fantastic like the problem with waddle is we don't know how long it will take before he's the number one wide receiver or one of fuller

parker gets hurt it may not matter but I love Waddle at wide receiver 48. I like Terrace Marshall even more at wide receiver 70 in round 16. I mentioned Devin Singletary at the beginning of round 12. T.Y. Hilton is currently wide receiver 56 at the end of round 12. He finished as wide receiver 42 in a disaster of a year last year.

Now, if he does that again this year, you won't be happy drafting him in round 13, but I think that was closer to what his floor is this year than his ceiling, as long as they don't sign Julio. And then, of course, Taysom Hill. Do you know off the top of your head

if Michael Pittman is going ahead of T.Y. Hilton in these drafts? Like 40 picks ahead of? Oh, wow. I think he's at pick 100. They keep going in our redraft drafts, our mocks. I feel like they're going pretty similarly it's way way way more fun to draft michael pittman than ty hilton yeah and it might end up being the right decision like it feels well unless you went to fiu yeah

exactly yeah yeah but even in redraft and nfc ty hilton's going 40 picks later than michael pittman what wow overall yeah yeah no i mean i i'm leaning pittman there's not a there's basically two or three games last year to go off of the pittman was good but i lean pittman over hilton but but not at 40 picks earlier i you know i did to back-to-back. The argument for Pittman is he stepped on the field as a rookie and basically played every snap. The argument against him is he stepped on the field as a rookie

and played every snap and wasn't really all that productive. Paris Campbell, best Colts wide receiver? Unlikely. And it's also possible that none of them are good. Heath Enney, it is possible. Any final thoughts on best ball

I hear people like poo pooing it because it's not you don't have to set your lineup it's not real fantasy football it's just a different type of fantasy football and I think if you if you play in a league like that you will find that it's also fun it doesn't have to take away any of your teams

I've basically made the rule like, I've got 17 teams. I can't add any more real teams and still be a dad and stay married. So this is the way that I'm able to add more teams, do more drafts, have more fun. It's not something to replace regular fantasy. It's a supplement.

Did you see the video on Twitter that was going around yesterday of the guy like chopping a tree with a dull axe and like oh we are out here grinding putting in the work i'm built different that's that's the same thing with like people who hate best balls like if you're not if you're not grinding 37 waiver wire uh leagues you're you're not uh you're not really a fantasy football player. And it's like, no, it's okay to do things that aren't hard work sometimes.

Yeah, I find that even if I join a league, I'm not really excited about the format. I end up liking it because it's fantasy football. Except for the one league that I've referenced a number of times through the years that was a league that gave one point for every 10 return yards. And Josh Cribs was, I believe, a first round pick.

And I didn't read the rules going into the draft. So that wasn't the league's fault. It was a stupid league. Like, that's a ridiculous league. What about a kicker premium league? No, this is BS. You're the guy always telling me that kickers are part of football,

so they should be incorporated. Now somebody wants to put the other side of special. The guys they're kicking to who could actually score a touchdown. One point for every 10 yards? It's absurd. The scoring was off a little, but I'm a big fan of return yardage. Let me tell you something. If you're the commissioner of that league, you owe it to the league to send a note before the draft starts saying, hey, this is the scoring, especially when you invite a new member. I joined an

existing league. I'm not going to look at the rules. I'm just going to assume that I'm just going to assume that this was 10 years ago. This was before I was even hosting. This was like 12 years ago before I was even hosting the Fantasy Football Podcast.

So now I would look at the rules. I've got to go search my tweets from six months ago. It's been so long since I've added something to your terrible take list on Twitter. I'm not going to go read the rules in reference to joining a new league. You owe it to the league to tell them that kick returners get one point for every 10 yards and Josh Cribs is the first round pick. That's not the part that we're going to put in the tweet, Adam.

I mean, look, I'm not going to clown Adam for this one because I have definitely done that multiple times. You don't try to justify it like you were right. Oh, yeah, no.

I'm just lazy. We were both wrong. I was wrong and the commissioner was wrong and the commissioner was wrong you've got to let people know that it's a very wacky fantasy football league and that will do it for today's show

thank you very much I'm going to get a whopper in my racer see you soon