Fantasy Football Today - Advanced Stats to Win Your League with Rich Hribar! (07/11 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

If you support the show, please nominate Fantasy Football Today for The People's Choice Podcast Awards in the "Sports" Category: https://www.podcastawards.com/app/signup/ Fantasy Football Today is available for free on the Audacy app as well as Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts and wherever else you listen to podcasts We welcome Rich Hribar of SharpFootballAnalysis.com to talk about which metrics matter and who some of his favorite players are in 2024. First, a couple of news items (3:30) about the Chargers offense and the Dolphins running backs ... Which metrics matter when evaluating a player (7:50)? Rich takes us through his basic process before we get into the real advanced stuff. Rich likes young players, so how does he feel about Travis Kelce (10:40)? And then we spend a lot of time talking about wide receiver metrics (14:30), which NFL teams could produce the best Fantasy options, what to expect from the Saints offense (19:50) and if there is a way to predict TDs (23:30) ... Who is WR9 in the rankings (25:45)? What about the guys just after that? Is it Marvin Harrison Jr.? Should Drake London be in this discussion? Also, let's project the 49ers (35:40) and Texans (44:40) offenses and talk about how mobile QBs sometimes make their teammates worse for Fantasy purposes (49:45) ... Email us at [e-mail] SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fantasy-football-today-dynasty/id1696679179 SUBSCRIBE to FFT Dynasty on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2aHlmMJw1m8FareKybdNfG?si=8487e2f9611b4438&nd=1 Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs Follow the brand new FFT TikTok account: https://www.tiktok.com/@fftoday Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/fantasyfootballtoday Get 20% off Fantasy Football Today merch: https://store.cbssports.com/collections/fantasy-football-today%20?utm_source=podcast-apple-com&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=buy-our-merch&utm_content=fantasy-football-collection Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Kick off an exciting football season with BetMGM, an official sportsbook partner of the National Football League. Yard after yard, down after down, the sportsbook born in Vegas gives you the chance to take action to the end zone and celebrate every highlight reel play. And as an official sportsbook partner of the NFL, BetMGM is the best place to fuel your football fandom on every game day. With a variety of exciting features, BetMGM offers you plenty of seamless ways to jump straight onto the gridiron and to embrace peak sports action. Ready for another season of gridiron glory? What are you waiting for?

Get off the bench, into the huddle, and head for the end zone all season long. Visit BetMGM.com for terms and conditions. Must be 19 years of age or older. Ontario only. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? For free assistance, call the Connex Ontario helpline at 1-866-531-2600.

BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with iGaming Ontario. Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Securian Canada gives you that coverage. For more than 65 years, Securian Canada has been helping Canadians build secure tomorrows. Their insurance solutions are designed to help protect you

and your loved ones financially, giving you the peace of mind to focus on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play! Can you believe this?

I had no idea. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races, and he stays on his feet. He's just going to go the distance. Now, here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. Thursday, July 11th. Welcome to Fantasy Football Today, everybody. We have got an awesome guest for you today.

His name is Rich Rebar, at Lord Reebs, at Lord R-E-E-B-S on Twitter. The only guy to call me pocket aces. I'm very disappointed. It never caught on, Rich. It never caught on. I don't know what happened. I tried. I tried to make this happen.

You know, I think it's just the erasure by your pod co-host. I agree. Well, you know, he's a terrible second baseman in softball. I tried to call him E4, but that didn't stick either. I'm all about that. E4 would work. By the way, Rich is at Sharp Football Analysis, and he's got advanced stats coming out his ears.

We're going to get a lot of them. We're going to talk about how you evaluate players, what stats are meaningful to you. Talk about wide receivers a lot. Always ends up that way with the advanced stats folk. Who does he like at wide receiver 9 10 11 12 etc uh actually i was just on the clock and he and i were talking about who to take uh in that group you know the nico collins i'm doing the scott fishbowl nico collins jaylen waddle deep uh brandon iuk etc so um you know i've got a little sneak preview there. And we'll talk about the Texans.

We'll talk about the 49ers. How about the Ravens? The Ravens have four players being drafted in the top 50 right now. Can you do that? Can you get that kind of production with a mobile quarterback? I'll tell you what I noticed doing some research this morning and much more. Anyway, Rich, how are you doing, man? Thanks for being on.

I'm doing great. Post-4th of July, I was looking at my content schedule, and it's like, Rich, how you doing, man? Thanks for being on. I'm doing great. You know, post 4th of July, I was looking at my content schedule and it's like, man, it's like, we're here. Like, this is kind of like the officially the season,

like for us, like, you know, football content creators are at training camp and just, you know, continue to plug away like stuff for the draft kit and they'll be kicking off. I think we're less than a month away from the first preseason game. Oh,

wow. About that. I would like to see players right now they're counting down the start of training camp you know so it's uh how do you guys feel about those in the industry it's a kind of bittersweet right like it's like you see it's like people count down the days and it's like oh because like you have to be once like oh we're we're to be in the season grind it's been uh it's been a constant joke for years because dave richard has done that forever counting down the Sundays.

And myself and a few of our colleagues just scream. I'm like, why? It's going to be here sooner than we think. I know you're excited. We're all excited about football, but we got some time to breathe a little bit. Yeah. No, I'm getting all my fun stuff out of doing a lot of fun stuff this month because it's all over starting in August, basically. But no, football is fun. I can't wait. You know, I can't wait for college football and I can't wait for the NFL. a lot of fun stuff this month because it's all over starting in august basically uh but no football

is fun i can't wait you know i can't wait for college football and i can't wait for the nfl i'll be a happier person if if the giants could be good but you know it's like are you one of those people excited for the college football game are you a college ball gamer the ea what do you mean the because it's like everyone yeah like everyone's in on the you know like the college football ea game coming out i think comes out like in like three days no i'm still only playing tech mobile on original nintendo that's that's all all of work i played the other day uh so let me just get a few quick news items out of the way and get your reactions here daniel popper of the athletic he sees g reactions here. Daniel Popper of The Athletic,

he sees Gus Edwards as the clear lead back. You may have seen that headline pop across on whatever Roto World is now, NBC Sports, Sleeper App, whatever it is. He sees Gus Edwards as the clear lead back for the Chargers heading into training camp. But also very interesting, this is what he said about the wide receivers for the chargers. Josh Palmer is a complete receiver poised for a career season at the top of the jet depth chart. Ladd McConkie is a pro ready route runner. Who's already looking like a perfect fit for Herbert.

And then a few sentences later, Daniel Popper of the athletics says, quote, it feels like the chargers are one injury away from Quentin Johnston. Again, playing significant snaps. That worries me. Jamie, that's not good. That's not good for Quinton Johnston.

No. Well, I mean, Quinton Johnston's not been good for Quinton Johnston, unfortunately. You know, so this, you know, I mean, we said it, you know, blank canvas, essentially, with this receiving core you know with Palmer being the the holdover and and Johnson as well but I mean Palmer being a guy that has actually produced you know some level of production that we can you know hopefully rely on so yeah it makes sense that those are the first two guys that he would talk about I think it's the first two guys that are going to be drafted in the majority of leagues most people excited about McConkie I think we you know we saw yesterday when we were having this conversation in our comments that you know a lot of people just saying why take McConkie where you have to take him?

Just wait for Palmer, who might be the better of the two from a production standpoint. But after you get past those two, between Johnston and DJ Chark, it's going to be interesting to see how they use those two guys. Adam, I know you're hopeful on Quentin Johnston being a little bit better in his second year. I was. Richard, I don't know how you come out on that. I was until this morning. Well, I mean, look, again, opportunity. And a lot of times, talent, skill, situation, opportunity,

they all kind of have to work together. And he's got one of those things, but the rest of them just don't seem to be on the same page right now with the organization. Yeah. Rich, can you have as bad of a year as Quinton Johnson had and turn into a good receiver? Not many have that have been down there.

And you're basically hoping for like a Devontae Adams run, right? The only player that's, he's like the standout. People forget, because he's probably going to make the Hall of Fame. The first few years of Devontae Adams were an absolute disaster. And that's kind of what you're hoping for. But the problem is the top-down offense just isn't going to be conducive, probably, for three wide receiver sets. I mean, during Greg Roman's tenure in San Francisco with Harbaugh, those teams were 30th in the NFL in rate of 11 personnel. When he was with Buffalo buffalo they were 29th

in baltimore they were 32nd like this this team has basically told us all offseason what they're going to do i mean when free agency opened they signed gus edwards they signed will disley uh you know they draft joe alt uh you know with their first pick like this team is gonna do what harbaugh and roman have done at every stop that they've ever been at like this team is gonna line up and play they're gonna do the inverse of brandon staley right like they're gonna play care they're gonna play to protect the football whereas like brandon staley was a little more carefree going for fourth downs like it's complete night and day and like the they're gonna play a lot of close games i bet and so we'll see if the chargers uh you know close game like you know mishaps will

continue to follow harbaugh because they're going to play a lot of tight games. Okay. Mike McDaniel said that the running back group for the Dolphins is pretty much led by Raheem Mostert, but he also said he has not spent any time trying to forecast the running back room because he's going to let the competition determine things. We'll talk about the Dolphins running back at some point soon.

Now, podcastawards.com. Please go nominate us on podcast awards.. Now, podcastawards.com. Please go nominate us on Podcast Awards. Just go to podcastawards.com. I think it's podcastawards.com slash app slash sign up. There's a link in the episode description. But if you just go to the main URL, you can get there. And nominate Fantasy Football today in the People's Choice category and the Sports category, especially that Sports category.

Rich has already done it four times. He's used four different email addresses to nominate Fantasy Football Today for the best podcast in the sports category on podcastawards.com. All right, let me get into the advanced stats and the conversation that we're planning to have here with Rich. We have no idea where this is going to lead. We're just going to kind of give these general topics and see where it goes, see who we up talking about but first question for you if you're going to evaluate a player rich what do you start with what what are the stats that matter to you and how do you go about evaluating a player so i know you want we want to get into the weeds at some point but this one's just actually really simple right it's like the bud you know bud kilmer just hitting you on the head like stick to the basics i mean the first

thing i'm looking like there's basically three things i look for in drafting a fantasy football player and it's basically like one what what is his usage is he a high usage player in his offense two where is he on the career arc you know like is he is he a younger player still ascending you know versus a player that may be like on the backswing and then does he play on a good team i know that you want like advanced stats, but people overlook this all the time. You should be drafting players on good NFL teams. You know what good NFL teams do? They score points. Scoring points equals fantasy points.

It's pretty damn easy. Those are the things I look for when starting off. There are ways to define a good team, because we don't always are able to predict the good teams versus the bad teams. Their teams kind of come out of nowhere but you know you can find some like got teams that necessarily weren't good last year like the falcons are example and just look at vegas lines and current projected points and they're projected to be you know 12th and projected points scored this season just by vegas lines you know compared to where they were a year ago so i mean i know you

will get into some more advanced things but like it's as easy as that man draft players are good teams good young players because what one fantasy things fantasy gamers always do they always get caught up in is like you got to be smacked in the face with it so like sometimes like these young that's why young players year two players especially typically become like the greatest fantasy values when you look at like eight guys that trump adp it's always year two players like pretty consistently at every position so if you want quentin johnston hope there's a smidge for you uh but because like gamers have to see it first but young players on good teams man it's it's pretty easy okay by the way jamie do you

know who bud kilmer is of course okay because i just had to look it up i completely forgot the worst coach ever coach of varsity blues uh yeah great movie um all right i like that so it remembers the whipped cream scene that's all no i you know what i remember is them playing one of my favorite offspring songs the right i think they play it during like at halftime when they're coming out after they're all fired up i think oh there goes my hero not no the foo fighters that's how they do the foo fighter song yeah that song was super popular when i was out wait that's which song which movie do they play nitro by offspring i thought that was varsity blues maybe that's a different one you sure they play the foo by hero in, in, absolutely. Yeah. Yeah.

All right. All right. I am confusing my movies. All right. Anywho. So you like young players. How do you feel about Travis Kelsey? You know, so we talked a little bit about this.

I mean, I have no pushback like anyone that has Kelsey as their tight end one. You look at just from like a points per game stance. I mean, he had more PPR points for game on Sam Laporta. He matched him in half point PPR. And that's before even you count for like the playoff production Kelsey had where he looked like Travis Kelsey.

I will say, I do still have Laporta one for edge. Like you said, career arc. We had a 23 year old player versus a 35 year old player. The, the chiefs have reduced Travis Kelsey snaps every year for five straight years. And then I think when you look at Detroit from a schedule stance, that's what stands The Chiefs have reduced Travis Kelsey snaps every year for five straight years. And then I think when you look at Detroit from a schedule stance, that's what stands out to me in terms of breaking ties and splitting hairs. They play one outdoor game through the first 13 weeks, the Detroit Lions. We always love those indoor splits for Jared Goff.

Granted, I think that some of his splits, his road splits, are kind of misconstrued due to weather stuff. That's like where you care about Goff the most is like precipitation. Remember Pep Hamilton dumping the water on the football forum at his pro day? That's what you care about with Jared Goff. But the Lions play all these indoor games.

They play really two true outdoor games the entire year at Green Bay, at Chicago. The other one's at San Francisco, and we just saw their offense be completely fine in San Francisco the last time they were on the field. So those things kind of break those ties for me. But if you have Travis Kelsey, number one, I have no pushback.

I think Travis Kelsey at tight end two in ADP is a better value than Laporta at tight end one. I will say that, though. Okay. According to the internet, Nitro was in Varsity Blues as well. So, okay, I don't have to feel terrible there. Jamie, I know he's not going to argue with you about the age thing.

He's been avoiding those older wide receivers in the early rounds. Devante Adams of the world, Keenan Allen later, Mike Evans maybe. Okay, so we've got to take a break. We'll come back and talk more about, I think, specifically wide receivers and things like that. And we'll be right back with Rich Rebar and Jamie Eisenberg of CBS Sports at Jamie Eisenberg right after this.

Fall is almost gone, but have you sipped enough Starbucks fall faves? Enough of the pumpkin spice latte, the cinnamony pumpkin flavored legend, or the new iced apple crisp non-dairy chai. So silky, so smooth. How about the new pecan crunch oat latte? Nutty, buttery deliciousness and crunchy pecan flavor.

Trick question, of course. It's the last call for fall, so don't miss out on your fall faves. Next stop, Starbucks. Take back your free time with PC Express Online grocery delivery and pickup. Score in-store promos, PC Optimum points, and more free time. And still get groceries. Shop now at pcexpress.ca. So, Jamie, any differences there about what's important to you?

He said usage, career arc, good team. How about you? Oh, and age, yeah. I mean, can you be different on that like like that that's that that's as smart as uh anyone anything anybody can say is you know you want those things that that those are the obvious ones that matter of course um well i think with a running back i i just does a good team matter so for a running back? Well, I think, and correct me if I'm wrong, Rich, you just gave a blanket statement. There's obviously things you can look at and say.

Yeah, I thought we were going to do the peel the onion thing. No, that's fine. Honestly, I was just trying to get Jamie involved here because I could just talk to Rich the whole time. So I was just trying to throw Jamie a bone here. All right, so let's talk about some wide receiver metrics here. Now we'll get into the onion. And, you know, I look at explosive play rate. I'm kind of curious about how you feel about a dot and how much that matters. Anyway, what about some some advanced metrics for wide receivers. What do you look at? Well, now like, so we've had like this little manifestation of the, in the NFL due to like the current pocket, I call it the defensive meta kind of where we are post COVID where we've

seen the NFL defenses really kind of adopt like that Vic Fangio. Like we are going to play a ton of shell coverage. We're getting a lot of two high safeties, a lot of cover for a lot of cover six in the NFL, the middle of the fields open more than ever man coverage has gone down five years in a row in the nfl teams no longer they they don't want to give up one or two play drives they want you to make a mistake have these like seven plus play drives uh if you're going to work for a touchdown if you're going to score a touchdown you're going to work for it basically and that's kind of like shifted some of the stuff especially

even for wide receivers i mean especially when you look at like elite wide receiver usage like that your wide receiver ones in fantasy football are no longer like when me and jamie played fantasy football like your prototypical x wide receiver right like the guy that would just line up at x and be dominant uh on the football just command targets now we're seeing like all of your wide receiver ones that you have to be versatile you have to be able to line up inside. You have to have a diverse route tree now in the NFL to combat like what defenses are doing. That's kind of led to some kind of, of a change in terms of like coaching trees.

And you see it again this year, like we continue to see the Shanahan McVay coaching tree get poached and get added to teams. We saw three more teams do this again, this off season. And in four, if you want to count shade saw three more teams do this again this offseason and in four if you want to count shade waldron changing teams but uh you know the titans moving on from you know the the tim kelly offense you know to brian callahan and what we've seen you know him him kind of come

from like the the mcveigh coaching tree we got clint kubiak taking over for pete carmichael and dennis allen um and then we've got zach robinson taking over for arthurichael and Dennis Allen. And then we've got Zach Robinson taking over for Arthur Smith, who was like the fantasy punching bag for like basically the last two years in Atlanta. And what it, what there's a reason these guys keep getting hired. And it's because when you look at like the best offenses in the NFL, like these are the guys that have the consistent answers to beating what

current defenses want to do. They're going to run the football on you. The, all these teams, all the, all these systems have a run-rich background. Even McVay. McVay is a team, when McVay at his best is running the football. And you look at McVay's team splits, especially in the red zone,

he's heavy on using his running backs in the red zone. And then if you want to play shell coverage, so they're going to run the football on you if you want to play shell coverage. If you want to come up and try to sell out to stop the run, they're going to beat you with you know play action and motion and cross and stuff over the middle of the field which i said middle of field open rate has gone up and up the last four years it's increased uh last season was at 44 percent of all nfl dropbacks the middle of the field was open pre-snap uh which is absolutely kind of bonkers to think about uh

so like yeah i i'm looking like, a lot of teams now that are one in that coaching tree, and there's 11 teams now that have either one of those two guys, like, from one of those trees that either calls plays for them. And then if you want to add a 12th team that doesn't have the, doesn't come from that tree, Ben Johnson and the Lions, they clearly are attacking defenses in the same capacity. So we're looking for teams that, like, run play run play action we're looking teams that run a lot of pre

snap motion uh you look at uh last year wide receivers saw roughly a 15 increase in yards per outrun just with pre-snap motion on the play they had a 31 increase in yards per outrun just with play action on the play so like i i want couldn't build a team out of just like a core out of these i gave you 12 teams there's 12 teams we can draft from that in that bucket who are the teams who are the teams uh so we've got what the obviously the two teams that are coached by the two guys uh you know shanahan mcveigh and we've got the bangles you've got the vikings the packers the falcons the titans the Packers, the Falcons, the Titans, the Saints, the Dolphins, the Texans, the Bears.

And then, like I said, Ben Johnson doesn't come from that tree, but Ben Johnson's clearly doing all the same stuff those guys are doing. Yeah, he's a bush right next to the tree. He's in the garden. All right. So, I mean, you have a pretty powerhouse team getting a core out of those teams, but those guys have the answers right now to what's beating kind of like the current defensive meta so like i mean look at the core of all those players you i don't want a lot of those players anyways i love this all right

jamie i want you to react to that here's what i'm gonna do i'm gonna give myself the sixth pick in the draft i am gonna draft you know like eight eight rounds or 10 rounds of just those 12 teams while you talk. OK, so go on. Yeah, I think, you know, the evolution of that, though, Rich, is is for me is the next group of offense coordinators that we're seeing, you know, so like the Stefanski tree, you know, like Petsik going to Arizona, maybe Van Pelt and what he can do to new England. And just to see how that evolves, obviously now, like what, I don't know if you want to call it the, the, the Sirianni tree, uh, but you know, like Shane, so I can go into Indianapolis and see how that offense evolves, because I think you're right. You know, obviously those, those 12 teams, you know, you see what they're doing, you know, and, and clearly, you know, everybody says the Shanahan tree, but it's,

it's really both those guys and how those teams have evolved we've had a fun conversation i'm curious your take on this just uh where does kubiak come out because one year in san francisco you know he obviously has his father's pedigree which is part of this you know so you know being with shanahan and obviously knowing how that's gonna go um does he change their car enough to make Chris Olave into the player? I think a lot of people are hoping to see, does he only unlock, you know, let's say Rashid Shaheed or, you know, whoever else is going to step up there and AT Perry or, or someone who we're, you know, maybe not expecting like that.

That one's fascinating to me is, is the, is the New Orleans situation. Because Carr is, is who he is in my opinion. And I think, I think it's going to benefit a lot of a lot i think the pre-snap motion is going to benefit him a lot i think you know doing some different things especially now you know michael thomas completely out of the way uh will change some things a lot i'm curious your take on the saints yeah i mean well for derrick carr we know for like for a derrick carr fantasy perspective we know who derrick carr is which is real easy like he's going to be stuck as like a i'm more curious as a thrower yeah and but as a thrower

derrick carr's been a fine nfl quarterback and he's also propped dudes up he's propped up wide receiver once for fantasy football like multiple times his career so i don't really have like a huge concern of like from that capacity if you're like talking about like where chris lab has been through two years and this offense like you kind of hit it and like it just had no easy buttons the saints last year were dead last in the nfl in rate of play action dead rat dead last in the rate of pre-snap motion chris lave very small sample size but he's only behind tyree kill and yards per out run on stuff with pre-snap motion uh they just basically asked all of their wide receivers to win on like two wide receiver sets like vertical routes and

it's like hard to live that way in the NFL you're just going to have a lot of uneven production uh you're going to have like a lot of inherent targets that come with a low success rate that ties over to Rashid Shahid who's like you know a lot of people are like interested in this year I mean Shahid 30% of his routes were go routes last year was the highest rate of any wide receiver to run four or more routes Alave was at 25 and a half percent which was ninth in the league as a byproduct of what they asked alave to do last year in this in this system 23 of his targets are 20 or more yards downfield the only players with as many targets as alave with a higher rate were mike evans and deandre hopkins so like we're just going to get a lot more easy buttons and that's just going to

give you more consistency like you're not going to have to live like that roller coaster ride the one question that i have i think with a lot of a punching up and breaking kind of like the barrier this year to be like a wide receiver one out of that pocket that like goes in that same group you have like a lave drake london garrett wilson's regard just like a little bit step higher above those guys is the touchdowns though right because one thing that's been consistent no matter what system Derek Carr's played in is that he has been an awful red zone quarterback and really awful inside the 10-yard line particularly like these last four years um and you when you talk about the Saints in general

like they have already been like knocking on the like knocking on the door for us all offseason's like dude we're gonna keep continue to use Taysom Hill in that area of the field. And there's no reason they shouldn't. When you look at Taysom Hill's success rate in terms of runs, like inside the five-yard line and goal line runs, there's no reason. He's well above the NFL base rate in terms of success on those carries, which is a problem for Alvin Kamara too.

So the biggest question I have for Olave is not are we going to see him finally get access to the types of these routes and targets that we kind of look for? It's like, can he get the touchdowns though? And I still think that is like one looming obstacle that like Derek Carr still can like get his like thorn in. Yeah.

Well, it's, it's not a lobby exclusively, right? It's Michael Pittman. It's Terry McLaurin. And we talk about this all the time. How do you predict touchdowns?

And I wonder how you approach that. Can you even predict touchdowns when you evaluate these players? What do you look at to that for that stat? Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, there is like when you look at like kind of like the targets that matter for fantasy football, right? Like the types of targets you get. Again, we talked about wanting play action we talked about wanting pre-snap motion obviously guess what types of targets have the highest correlation to fantasy

points per target end zone targets right like duh like you know and then deep tart then you go deep targets then you get your red zone targets targets inside the 10 like stuff like that so uh you know what we can kind of we're not going to predict like the success rate but it's just like when gamers look at like a running back and say well he had x amount of opportunities on the inside the five and you know he just didn't convert these below the base rate like there's a pretty easier aggression call we can kind of look at those things from a career stance and say like well who are these guys that consistently get these targets in the end zone and kind of pick away from there and kind of find a way. And a lot of it's a guy who actually hasn't to this point gotten a high rate of targets in the end zone.

And then when you double that with Derek Carr stuff, yes, like I said, a lot of it is a big standout in terms of getting like more easier buttons. I think he's got a higher floor than he's had in recent years. But like the touchdowns are going to matter for him kind of crashing that ceiling. Whereas you might be able to look at a guy like Drake London and say, Oh, like he is a guy that's gotten a ton of end zone tar or Garrett Wilson is if you're splitting hairs between these three guys that are kind of near each other. And those two guys have literally just been fed terrible, inaccurate targets in the end zone i mean 38 percent of garrett wilson's end zone targets have been accurate inaccurate quarterback throws like

that's absolutely like an insane an insane rate and then you know drake drake london isn't far behind in that span you know these guys are getting accurate quarterback upgrades in terms of kirk cousins and aaron rogers who are ironically are coming off of Achilles tears on different feet though, uh, which guides the fine to Bella, my show. And she actually said like, it may mean more for Kirk Cousins is deep ball. Like the fact that it's his plant leg than Aaron Rodgers, but, uh, I'm no doctor. So don't take that from me. So let's Jamie, let's talk about this group of receivers, I guess. And there's a top eight receiver, lamb Hill,

Jefferson chase, St. Brown, AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson, Puka Nakua. And then really there's, there's a top nine.

There's Marvin Harrison. It gets pretty interesting after that. So you, Jamie, who who's right after Harrison for you at wide receiver 10 today, because it changes almost on a daily basis because, you know, like Rich said,

it feels like, you know, you can make an argument for each of these guys in different ways. Right now it's a lot of a London waddle for me. How about you, Rich? Who's do you have, first of all,

do you have Harrison at nine and you know, what's after that? No, I mean, I get where are you guys, have you guys been drafting Harrison where he goes? It's really tough. I get why he's ranked there. So a lot of people see harrison as a one two turn player now and they're

like oh that is rich and it is rich but in context of the position because wide receivers are just being drafted higher than they were a decade ago it used to be like the one two turn was like the wide receiver five now it's the wide receiver like we said 10 um it does like i get why he's ranked there but when you look at just rookie wide receivers, take him in the top 10 in the NFL in the 2000s, only one was a PPR wide receiver, one in points per game. It was Jamar Chase.

We're talking about guys like AJ Green, Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, guys that are Hall of Famers still weren't even that. So like it is rich to kind of take him there. I get why he's there. I'm able to click the button there, especially when the delta from Marvin Harrison to Malik Neighbors is so far, where you just get more insulation.

Even if Neighbors fails, I feel like he fails as my wide receiver three in the third round or my wide receiver two. That's different than taking a guy on the turn versus players that i know are probably you know a little bit more safer or i have think that like i have a little more confidence and i mean i would did you conclude garrett wilson garrett wilson for me is the next guy like pretty easily i had him you know in the top eight okay so you had garrett wilson there yeah i yeah i i go i think i I favor, I favor London versus a lobby, just a smidge more.

But I, again, that's just cause like I, I factor in the touchdown stuff. I think London has a better, better access to maybe quality touchdown stuff. And then the Falcons have an easier schedule. And like I said,

they project for more points in the saints. I would use those things to kind of split those ties, but I have no problem with anyone that has a lobby there. Yeah. I mean, some people are going to start be there you guys don't have uh you're not taking him there but a guy i think that belongs in this bucket that doesn't get included in this conversation at all and i know he sat on here like george pickens is that

what's the difference between george pickens and these guys like really i love pickens love pickens but he should be included in from an archetypical stance. And I have them. And when I tier my guys from an archetypical stance, Pickens is in this tier for me. And you get him. This is what we call arbitrage, right? You're getting something that's not valued at the same cost.

Pickens belongs in this tier. Absolutely. He's year three wide receiver. He's been better than Drake London through two years in the NFL. And when you look at his splits with and without Deontay Johnson last year, he had a 28% team target share and almost three yards per outrun with Deontay Johnson off the field last year. The four games that Deontay Johnson didn't play last year,

he goes four for 127 in the touchdown, four for 75. He has a dud, the three for 25, and then he has six for 130 and a touchdown by the way those two big games came against the cleveland browns and baltimore ravens who had two of the better defenses in the nfl last year he's a big play machine uh and you know granted we could talk about oh he's getting arthur smith who drake london just had but pickens was already wide receiver 44 and routes per route run routes per game last season and still turned in enough splash plays uh from to be oh go over a thousand yards and be viable i think pickens from an archetypical stance belongs in this conversation it it's interesting you're the

first person i think to say it that aggressively which which i like you know i mean i i think pickens does have the opportunity to to to jump to this point you know and this will be i think one of those guys that certainly by adp he's going to I don't want to say shatter his ADP, but he definitely has the opportunity to, you know, make a lot of people regret not taking him higher. Uh, my, my concern is not Arthur Smith because Arthur Smith was good as a coordinator for AJ Brown, for example, when they were in Tennessee and he had a veteran quarterback, you know, I, I spoke to him last year, uh, in regards to Kyle Pitts and he, you know, it was kind of one of those things like, you know, when you talk to enough NFL coaches and,

and, and you kind of, you know, you can read through coach speak. He was basically saying, he's like, when we had Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts was going to get fed targets without Matt Ryan. I'm a little concerned, you know, so like you could tell he was a little concerned about his quarterback situation. So I think with a veteran, you know, quarterback in, in, uh, in Russ, you know, he's, he's sort of fast. He's the first guy I was thinking about when you're talking about the middle of the field, cause he's afraid to throw in the middle of the field, you know? And so how much of that will kind of limit Pickens is, is one of my basically killed his career and it might have killed Deshaun Watson's, but amongst things, but like,

cause you think of Deshaun Watson, a very similar things but like because you think of Deshaun Watson a very similar Russell Wilson s type player wants to extend plays wants to push the ball downfield and that's basically been the demise of Russell Wilson right but in terms of pickings like I think those things will help pickings you know similar to what Cortland Sutton did and you know similar things that DK Metcalf and even Tyler Lockett have done you know if you look at his track record but does only staying in a certain area of of the field limit Pickens breakout potential like that's that's a little bit of my concern yeah and yeah and I'd agree that I think it's a valid concern to have uh with him uh yeah um I mean what do you guys so like we talked a little bit about London the wild card factor here that I think that's the hardest thing to figure out with the Atlanta Falcons is so like this

system has never had a player like Kyle Pitts. And part of my theory of Kyle Pitts outside of the injury stuff is Kyle Pitts's greatest gift has also been his greatest curse in the NFL is that teams want to use him in a unique way because of the skill set he provides but the that unique way that he can be used versus other tight ends is kind of what leads to him getting like really fantasy production like that like like profanity so like how how does this because this offense has always relied on the system has always used their tight ends as like an inline player and they haven't had guys like i said like kyle pitts like the better tight ends that have been in this system like basically you say like from this

coaching tree have been guys like you know uh a george kittle a tj hawkinson guys that they can play in line so kyle pitts is one of those things like guys that's just really hard to figure out like what's his role in this offense? We know this offense is going to create easy button throws. Who gets them? Is it going to be Pitts or is it going to be London? I think when you go back to London's profile coming out of USC, it would lead me to believe it to be more London than Pitts

because London was a player that had a lot of manufactured production. His senior year coming, not his senior year, because he didn't play, his final year coming not a senior year uh because he didn't play his final year at usc you know he was a guy that did had just a ton of screens and manufactured production 44 percent of his yards did come after the catch at his final year at usc and when you're talking about like guys that can get like the route tree like puka nakua ran like it's easier to say from the surface like well that could be drake london whereas kyle Kyle Pitts, you kind of have to say like, what is Zach Robinson going to do with a player like Kyle Pitts?

And that's like the thing we don't know. Yeah. I'm, I'm hopeful that'll kind of be a red zone option option for cousins. Cause that's kind of what he's done. You know, you look at Kyle Rudolph and then Hawkinson and sort of that role that the tight end played for him. Um, you know, so how much input will he have on that? But yeah, for Robinson, I think, you know, how he uses pits, I just make him a big slot.

Like, you know, just use him, use him in that opportunity. Cause you're still going to get mismatches. The idea, you know, Arthur Smith, putting him on the outside and trying to make him a wide receiver essentially was just waste. In my opinion, you know, you're, you're taking away the opportunity to get mismatches on linebackers and safeties and i think that's where he he would absolutely eat if in fact they use him that way yeah i think among tight ends with i think it's 40 maybe 50 targets kyle pitts in all three of his seasons he's ranked first in a dot highest a dot and first or second in percentage of snaps lined up out wide.

So you just like you got to, if you're a tight end with like a 13, well, 10.9, 13.8, 11.4 yard dot, you better have good quarterback play, which he hasn't.

But again, we want some more catches, some shorter routes, get them in the slot. That'd be wonderful. Uh, Jamie talked, talking a lot of trash about me on a text message, which is not cool.

So I'll tell you all about that. When we come back from this commercial break on fantasy football today. Mama, look at me. I'm going really fast. I just got my license. Can I borrow the car please? Mom,

kids go from zero to 18 in no time. You'll be relieved. They have 24 seven roadside assistance with Intact Insurance. Mom, can we go to Nana's house tomorrow? I want to go to Jack's place today. I'll just take the car. Don't wait up, okay? Kids go from 0 to 18 in no time, don't they? At Intact Insurance, we insure your car

so you can enjoy the ride. Visit intact.ca or talk to your broker. Conditions apply. Miller Lite. The light beer brewed for people who love the taste of beer and the perfect pairing for your game time. When Miller Lite set out to brew a light beer, they had to choose great taste or 90 calories per can.

They chose both because they knew the best part of beer is the beer. Your game time tastes like miller time learn more at millerlight.ca must be legal drinking age man i love talking about this group of wide receivers so let's talk about your projections for the texans and the 49ers because in this group of receivers we have nico collins two 49ers guys, Debo and Iuke. The efficiency for the 49ers last year was absolutely off the charts. I'm sure you can't expect the same yards per attempt for Purdy. All the metrics for Iuke were ridiculous.

Even Kittle was extremely efficient. You know, Debo's crazy. He's always,ittle was extremely efficient. You know, Debo's crazy. He's always like crazy efficient, but I don't know. So you got those 49ers guys and then you got the Stefan Diggs factor now with, with the Texans. Where do you want to start? Texans or Niners? Well, we'll do the 49ers.

Cause I mean, it's like still pretty cut and dry. Cause we've seen this, like the there's projection with the Texans that we don't know where the 49ers we've already seen it. Right. Like we've seen all these guys play in unison. This is what makes it hard to like find anything for Ricky Pierce. All right. Like,

like until one of these guys is gone and what remains to be determined, like if these last two months we do see one of these guys get traded, but who do you think benefits? Who do I think benefits from the trade? Yeah. Like in what capacity? If I, you Ayuk is gone, does Pearsall just fill that role

or does Debo go back to being like 2021 Debo? Yeah, it's really weird because Pearsall is kind of a mix of both guys. Like when you look at where Pearsall won in college, it's kind of like they hedge their bets for both guys because he has like that rushing return profile that like Debo had and like the missed tackle stuff that like Debo has but

then he also he wins on like in breaking stuff uh in terms of like he's a better route runner uh that that's where Ben Ayuk's calling card like basically in the NFL I'll say this if a if one of the guys for the 49ers were to get traded I have more confidence that uh Brandon Ayuk would have like a hard like a large up saying like if. If you give Brandon Iuke 150 targets, I think even with poor quarterback play, we want that for fantasy football. Whereas Debo, we still got to count on the next offense he's in for a team to use him right and use him correctly.

The marriage for Debo and Kyle Shanahan, I don't think he can get better. I think what Jamie's saying, let's say Iuke gets traded. Yeah, who's say Iuke gets traded. Yeah. Who's the better for him? How do you like? It's got to be Pearsall. Like, Pearsall is like a complete, just like the value would just be so much.

Oh, tremendously, yes. But Debo, I think, I would think about Debo. I would say Kittle. To be honest, I would say Kittle would be the dude. Because look at Kittle's production when just one of these guys has been off the field last year. So over the past two seasons, Kittle has run 557 pass routes with both Debo and Ayuk on the field at the same time. He's been targeted on just 17.2% of those routes and has just 15.7% of the team targets, only 1.64 yards per outrun. He's run 336 routes with either one of those guys off the field. He's been targeted on 23.8% again versus 17.

It's like 7% increase. 21.9% of the team targets up from 15.7%. 2.59 yards per outrun up for 1.64. Like I think it would be easily Kittle. Kittle has been one of these guys. He regularly goes like tight end six. He goes after we talk about Kyle Pitts, like pretty regularly. He goes after. We talk about Kyle Pitts pretty regularly. He goes after Dalton Kincaid pretty regularly.

He goes sometimes after Evan Ingram, which is an odd one. Because you look at Evan Ingram, he's been another guy that's been reliant on who's been on the field for the Jaguars. And has way less touchdown upside and way less explosive play upside than Kittle. But I would say Kittle. If either guy gets traded, Kittle. But I would say kid, if any, either guy gets traded, Kittle would be the guy that gets spiked. Talking about them not being traded.

I don't ever draft George Kittle. If none of them are traded because of those stats you just mentioned, and they, they played 11 games last year where I, you Debo McCaffrey and Kittle all played their normal snap share. That's including the post season. And in those 11 games, George Kittle was on pace. Actually, pretty good numbers because he was so efficient.

900 yards and eight touchdowns, but only 88 targets. And, you know, that really scares me with Kittle. And Debo was on pace for 109 targets plus 43 carries. Ayuk was on pace for 116 targets, which is still pretty low for a guy that some people are taking in the second round. So it's very tough for me because, you know, you said earlier, get guys on good offenses. And by the way, I did make my all-star team

of picking sixth of having players from just those 12 teams. We can come back to that later if you want. But... Hope the other people in this draft for you were just, you know, allowing you to take... No, it was all based on ADP. I mean, it's a very reasonable team to have. How nice are the other people in this draft for you were just you know allowing you to take no it was all based on adp i mean it's a very reasonable team to have uh nice the other 11 people yeah no i'm just saying that i could have gotten all these guys but anyway anywho i want the

49ers but i find them other than mcafree i find them to be okay sorry debo iu kittle i find them to be a little too expensive for me rich i. I don't know how you feel about that. I think that's fair, but I think it depends on how you started your draft, right? Because that tier of wide receivers that I think these guys are included in, they all have an element of contingency value to them. I would say Pukunukua, Nika Collins, Debo, Ayuk, DJ Moore, Devanteante smith t higgins jalen waddle and if you want to include tank dell like those guys are all good players that have higher splits when another guy's off the field and we know like like i said there's that contingency factor but if you started with

an elite wide receiver your your floor for having one of these guys is your wide receiver two versus your wide receiver one is different right if brand wide receiver two versus your wide receiver one is different, right? If Brandon Ayuk's your wide receiver one, you feel differently than if you have him with Tyreek Hill, right? And that's kind of like how you have to play your draft and how you try to factor in if you're more risk-averse to this archetype of player that needs kind of a door open to him. I think from just like a top-down stance,

the fact that Debo is the most, the one when all three are on the field together, Debo gets used the most. And the fact that he gets used most, cause it's easier to use him the most. He has a lower a dot. He gets rushing. He gets rushing production.

And it's created a little bit more consistency from an inconsistent type player. If that makes any type of sense, if I can use together, I think if you're like, I still debo ahead of iuk because of that like just treating it as if the 49ers are going into the season with all all these guys i edge debo over iuk because because of his usage i think it's just it's been consistent the 49ers have been able to get him the football uh regularly when all three these three guys are around the field. Uh, I,

I find my, well, I, I just did this in, in the fishbowl. I think Debo's got another, you know, sort of carrot dangling as well.

McCaffrey at 28, uh, and coming off a year with over 400 touches. If he were to miss time, I think Debo's rushing production goes up significantly because that's what we saw. And receiving, I'd say.

Well, both, but you know, I, I think just the, the additional part of that is i they'll obviously use mitchell and garendo and whoever else they're gonna you know throw back there if mccaffrey's gone but you know debo will get his touches in a little bit different way and based on shannon like you know you said it great rich that you said perfectly rich that you know the the marriage between these two guys like it would

kind of be fascinating to see if he went to another part of the tree, you know, the Shanahan tree, and who would use Debo in the same kind of regard because you'd think that they would. You know, you've heard of different receivers, the next Debo, the next Debo. You know, I mean, like, it was sort of attached to Jaden Reed, for example. Malachi Curley. Malachi Curley, right. Yes, McCoy.

So, but I think, you know, for anybody doing best ball drafts, the 49ers are fascinating, absolutely fascinating, because if there is a trade or an injury, for anybody doing best ball drafts, the 49ers are fascinating. Absolutely fascinating. Because if there is a trade or an injury, which we've seen quite a bit, Pearsall could be an absolute monster. He's such a steal. Debo, I think, you know, benefits in a huge way. Kittle, like you said, benefits in a huge way.

And with the right situation, like, and I'm curious your take on this one, because you mentioned it. If IU goes to Washington, is that the ideal situation for him? he will get targets but he's in a crowded receiving core at least on paper and and a rookie quarterback is going to run yeah that's that i don't i definitely don't think washington's an upgrade so i'm always hesitant on on players that play with rookie quarterbacks anyways if you look at historical production wide receivers have a dip in production year one with a rookie quarterback now sometimes you're running the cj stroud and he unlocks everything just the way it is but you know we've seen guys like calvin johnson mike evans like again hall of famers like have a dip

in production with year one wide receivers one other quick stat on the 49ers thing so over the past years there hasn't been a week in which both debo samuel and brandon ayuk were wide receiver one scores the same week there's been just six weeks they've been top 24 scorers the same week that's kind of the rub the difference I think you have between the 49ers and the Texans though is you can take Purdy you don't have to play the pancake game you can take the syrup game like Purdy is just being discounted Houston used to have to pay the iron price for CJ Stroud. And that's what makes the whole situation harder, harder to gauge.

Like you can just take Purdy though. Like to me, the standout here is I look at the QB landscape and I'm like, why is QB? Why is you a Brock Purdy behind Tua? Like, like I don't, I don't understand it. Like it's like,

so like you can just take Purdy and play the 49er situation that way. All right. Let's go talk about the Texans then. And let me ask you, with the three wide receivers, which ADP do you, if you were going to take one of them, let's say Nico Collins is around two to three pick. Stefan Diggs is four to five. And Dell is probably five, maybe into six.

What do you think the best value is for the three receivers? I mean, so far in these drafts that we've been doing and granted it's best ball stuff. I've been largely just taking the cheapest guy. I mean, I definitely, if you're putting my feet to the fire, I'm obviously going to favor Nico Collins, like the public from an archetypical stance. Like they, they paid him. He's a guy that is like you're making

a wide receiver to be your lead wide receiver looks the part is the part had the breakout with Stroud uh the thing that gets tough so Nico Collins and Tank Dell were on the field last year for only 34 percent of CJ Stroud's drop back like we didn't really even get like a huge sample of them even playing together and both of these guys benefited when the other guy was off the field in the same capacity that we talked about, like it's 49 or situation, 210 passing plays, both guys on the field last year.

Uh, you know, Nico Collins was targeted on 29 and a half percent of his routes with tank Dell off the field, as opposed to 22.9% with Dell on the field. That's a difference between wide receiver three and target rate versus wide receiver 30. The chasm tank Dell was targeted on 29.1 percent of his routes with collins off the field compared to a 20.6 rate with collins on the field again it's like the

same exact split and that doesn't factor in you know that you're at you're throwing another guy into the equation here with stefan diggs when those two players collins and dell were on the field last year they had 50 of the team targets the next closest player on the team was that 15.8% Dalton Schultz. I'm pretty confident that if Stefan Diggs, while healthy, is going to have a higher target share than 15.8%. Whether your opinion on Stefan Diggs is that he's washed a declining player or not, I'm pretty sure that the target share is going to be higher. If it's not, Stefan Diggs is going to let you know about it uh i think that we we know that as well also it's hard to say stefan diggs is like supremely washed because i'm pretty sure guys that are just dead don't go over 100 yards

in five of their first six games of the season last year like there's a lot that went into like the real catawampa splits that tank uh that steantex had last year, whether it be coaching change, the schedule, like the, the bills faced an absolute like rogues gallery of good past defenses to close the end last year. Josh Allen also was not nearly as good the back half of the year that he was the front half.

I mean, it's the 15th in completion, right? 18th and yards were passed him 13th and accuracy, you know, rating over those, you know, final 11 games of the year.

So like, there's a lot that goes into it. It's hard to kind of figure out like grant. He's now like, we talked about the open though. He's 31 this November. It's, he's just hard to kind of bet on like where, like he is getting moving into like the sauce here with these other guys. Any time that, that I hear CJ Stroud talk, he talks about tank Dell. It's like something always on my radar.

He always brings up Tank Dell. It's hard to ignore. But when you look at Tank Dell, he's a guy that's screaming regression from what he did. I mean, he had seven touchdowns as a rookie. His expected total was 3.8. He converted the highest rate of end zone targets of any wide receiver with five or more end zone targets. He scored four of his touchdowns from outside the red zone zone very hard to just lean on those things and say they're

static so like the texans are a team that like man i just honestly haven't been getting a lot of them because the adps are all pretty rich i have i can't honestly tell you i don't know how the targets all projection we haven't seen any of these guys play because we didn't even see collins and dell play together and then the quarterback is expensive as well we can't even say all right let's just take cj stroud because he consistently goes as qb5 qb6 and he's he doesn't run and it's like hard to take that quarterback that doesn't run with that kind of you know draft capital and fans football like historically that's been where guys bust the most this archetype of quarterback at this draft cost i think the texans are just a

complete enigma man like it's it's tough it's tough because we expect them to be good well that actually kind of brings me i was going to talk to you about the ravens and the ravens having four players in the top 50 in average draft position derrick henry henry lamar jackson zay flowers and mark andrews but you know I'm trying to find I went back to the last three seasons and look for teams that gave us that kind of production. Basically, three, three flex options that finished in the top 70 overall, which is about the top 50. If you remove quarterbacks, usually about 20 quarterbacks in the top 70. I did find one team i think only one that had four players which is what four flexes which is what we'd be looking at with the texans right those three receivers plus mixin yeah plus mix i think that's only happened one time in the last three years and it was the dallas

cowboys in 2021 they had zeke lamb cooper and dalton schultz uh yeah and it's much easier obviously well no this is overall. So never mind. I was gonna say for a tight end. But so it's probably pretty hard for the Texans to live up to their ADPs just with five players going in the top 70. But one thing I did notice,

and this is why it really shocked me that the Ravens have four players in the top 50. There's five or six a year, five or six teams that give us three flexes and then probably a quarterback, yeah, in the top 70 overall, including quarterbacks. Only one of those teams over the last three years out of 16 teams has had a truly mobile quarterback, like a big rusher. And it was the Eagles in 2022. And it's just like, do mobile quarterbacks,

I think, I don't remember when I said this with Heath or something like that, but do mobile quarterbacks kind of suck for everyone else? Yeah, as someone who wrote the original Konami Code article in 2013, which feels forever ago now, one of the things I highlighted but i do these like

yearly league-wide trends i do a league-wide trend article for each position and one of the things i highlighted starting two years ago was that the russian quarterbacks and the influx russian quarterbacks we're getting more athletes playing quarterback obviously because human evolution uh you know than we ever have and we're this year we got more more athletic quarterbacks and we're seeing them really damage the running back production. And what we talk about with running backs kind of in this current, like defensive meta,

they have to combat two things. Now, one, we don't have like the bell cows anymore. The guys that play three downs, almost every backfields compartmentalized. You have a guy, a specialist for a role in a backfield.

Now it's what made like these elite running backs more of a finite resource and this year we've got Christian McCaffrey then you have like a two man mini tier after him we were like this guy could be the next Christian McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson and Brees Hall and then you immediately get to Jameer Gibbs who you hope could be that but has to share a backfield with someone so we only have really three clear guys in that role but mobile quarterbacks have also started to reduce receptions target share so running back target share league-wide target share has gone down six years in a row and it's because we can continue to get more mobile quarterbacks touches inside

the five yard line quarterbacks continue to take increased role of that uh again last year 21.8 of all rushing attempts inside the five were by quarterbacks last year. You go back to just 2010, it was only 11.1%. So we're getting, it's significant. You don't want a guy that plays the mobile quarterback. So it makes that secondary tier of running back so hard, right? The post Gibbs tier where you have Jonathan Taylor, Saquon, and Derek Henry. These guys have been RB1s in the past but they don't project they have a lot of receptions they project to play with a mobile

quarterback so will they get a lot of touchdowns the one thing Derrick Henry has going for him is the Ravens have continuously not really used Lamar Jackson in the same capacity that the Eagles have used the tush push and we think that Shane Steichen wants to use Anthony Richardson we just didn't really see a sample of Anthony Richardson. We just didn't really see a sample of Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor last year. They only played two snaps together the entire season, but you know, Richardson did have 40% of the design runs, you know, you know, inside the 10 for the Colts while he was on the field. But the Ravens don't like the Ravens don't do that. You know, they Ravens running backs had

40 rushing attempts and goal to goal situations last year. They're running backs at 20 rushing touchdowns. You know, Gus Edwards at 13. It's really easy to say Derek Henry is still going to score a lot of touchdowns. The problem with Derek Henry always has been when he doesn't score a

touchdown, what are you getting? And that's when you have to take these guys in this capacity, right? That's where Saquon falls. Now transition to the Eagles or Jonathan Taylor has been basically for his career to Derek Henry, 19 and a half Jonathan Taylor has been basically for his career too. Derrick Henry, 19.5 PBR points per game for his career

when he scores a touchdown, 5.5 points per game without a touchdown. That's the floor you get, and that's what sucks versus the wide receivers that we talk about. You know your wide receivers are going to have inherent higher floors, especially in your full PBR leagues, than those running backs because when those running backs give you duds, they're not catching passes and they're not scoring touchdowns uh that's what makes it so tough for that secondary tier but the ravens are a team i think the passing game is like

the toughest part right like zay flowers i think has been one of the more overdrafted players and he's a guy you look for he plays a good quarterback and he does have that kind of going for him on the youth spectrum but the dude scored two touchdowns with mark andrews on the field last year right like his splits with mark andrews on off the field are are wild and mark andrews himself has missed multiple games the past four years three of the past where he's just multiple games as it makes it tough to kind of pay up for him the usage is there for him but yeah the ravens are a real cheeky team to diagnose uh i did see the der the Derek Henry workout videos though. And, uh, he still scares me. I hope you didn't hear anything that we just said about him. Right. Uh, so who would

you take first? Mark Andrews or Zay Flowers? I still would take Zay Flowers. I think more, I think Andrews with the way I'm drafting tight ends. Uh, I do want him to fall a little bit because, like I said, I think I can fall back and take a shot on Pitts later, right? And maybe have more upside or if one of these 49ers goes off the boards. So I feel I can run. I feel like I can manufacture what Mark Andrews does at tight end a little bit more than I do. Potentially what we could get from the top guys, the top, top guys, like a Kelsey at his best, right? Kelsey at his best has never been compatible. It's been like Gronk levels.

So that's why you still have to respect Kelsey. Okay, so I mentioned that over the last three seasons, we've had 16 teams that have had three flex options finish in the top 70 overall, which is about top 50 if you remove the quarterbacks. There is one team it's not 16 different teams, 16 instances. One team that has done it

all three years that has had a combination of running back, wide receiver, tight end, all finish basically in the top 50 of flex options, top 70 of offensive players. Can anyone name that team? One of each?

I think every year it's been two wide receivers and one running back. In the last three years? They won a Super Bowl in this stretch. The Chiefs? No, the Chiefs? No, they've only shown up on this list one time, although they're always flirting. No, because of Kelsey.

Kelsey ruins it. Yeah. Well, they haven't really had the running back until last year. Right. The Chiefs isn't a running back. And it's always been a... I want to say it's been't a running back. And it's always been a, it's been a different, I want to say it's been a different running back.

Maybe every, I think maybe every year and two different quarterbacks in this stretch. It's been the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All three years, they've given us three really good flex options. And the quarterbacks for these teams have been Justin Herbert, Tom Brady twice, Kirk Cousins twice,

Joe Burrow twice, Dak, Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith, Trevor Lawrence twice. The Jaguars have actually done it two years in a row. Two years ago, Zay Jones finished as a top 70 player.

Jared Goff twice, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Baker Mayfield. Again, you want your skill players not to be tied to mobile quarterbacks right it's a pretty interesting takeaway uh it's cool stuff all right uh before you go give me like one breakout for 2024 i mean i think it's like uh it's i'll say rashid shaheed like everyone else i like it's just like i said think it's like, uh, it's odd say Rashid Shaheed, like everyone else. I like, it's just, like I said, uh, he's like the guy, when you're talking about like from an ADP stance, especially where he goes, he's just kind of an easy click to play all those

things. I mean, uh, he has been a really good player in the, when he's been used, uh, so far through two seasons. And then we saw his target share spike, you know, go from 14% target rate per outrun. We play snaps with Michaelael michael thomas up to 21 last year and then the coaching changes that we kind of highlighted uh he would be the guy i would kind of look for in that area that i just frequently click jamie that's interesting we don't talk a lot about shaheed maybe maybe we should well i mean i we certainly did earlier this week

with their scott fishbowl discussion because he's everybody's favorite player in Fishbowl. But yeah, no, it's a great call. Again, if you're buying into Derek Carr and the new offense there, he's got as much of an opportunity as anybody, just with the opening for targets and playing time. Okay, would you like to see the team I

drafted from the sixth spot? Yeah, give it to us. Alright, so these are just the 11 teams that come from the McVay-Shanahan coaching tree that have that coaching philosophy, plus the Detroit Lions. So we have Jamar Chase in round one, Kyron Williams in round two,

Jalen Waddell in round three, Alvin Kamara round four, T. Higgins, round five. So our five, you know, receivers and running backs are Kyron and Camara, Chase Waddle Higgins,

Kyle pits in round six, Aaron Jones is going to be our RB three. Christian, Christian Watson in round eight. And then quarterback, I didn't take a quarterback high. So I'm going to go with some combination of Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy,

and Tua Tunga-Vailoa. That's an amazing team. It's an amazing team. And honestly, like pretty realistic. I think you wouldn't be able to hit all of those, but I think you could pretty much pull that off. Oh yeah.

It's a good, yeah. All right, let's do it. I love, I love this. Great. Uh,

Rich, what, um, how can we find you? Where you uh yeah i'm at sharp football analysis.com we just had the 2024 preview book you know kind of release it just that just came out that we worked on i'm putting out like my massive uh tears this week uh wide receivers will be out today to kind of wrap that up but the quarterbacks are free if you're not part of the draft get the quarterbacks are free if you just kind of want to get an idea of what level of detail we're talking about that i put into these uh because i'm someone that does their tears a

little differently i don't just break off my rankings i do by archetype like we talked about the george pickens thing right like so i do it so you can spot potential arbitrage throughout your draft uh so definitely you know go check those out over at sharp football analysis.com yeah i think we just had massive tears. That's massive tears. That's what happens when, when Jamie plays me in fantasy. And on that note, especially when you draft by yourself. I mean, those teams are amazing.

I'm sorry that this is a very realistic team, but you know, it is. You'll assign me players from all the non Shanahan McVay teams, right? Yeah, you could do that. I like it. That'd be fun. You don't want to, and obviously you're not going to be as rigid to only take players you'll assign me players from all the non Shanahan McVay teams, right? Yeah, you could do that. I like it. That'd be fun. You don't want to, and obviously you're not going to be as rigid to only take players,

those teams, but it's kind of fun to say like, I could build my course. You're going to want chiefs and you're going to want, you know, Eagles dudes, but it is what it's fun. All I know is if I learn anything from this conversation, it's that varsity blues probably has a pretty good soundtrack.

And we will talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag. FantasyFootball at CBSi.com. Also throw some Apple Podcast questions in there. Rich Rebar, Jamie Eisenberg. I'm Adam Azer. We'll talk to you tomorrow.