Fantasy Football Today - Advanced Stats with Jacob Gibbs! What is "TPRR"? (05/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Episode Date: May 17, 2021

SportsLine Data Analyst Jacob Gibbs joins us to talk about targets per route run. This stat can help identity WR breakouts, so pay attention! After Jacob explains the stat, we have a trivia question for you about a young WR you shouldn't give up on just yet (6:55) ... News and notes (13:10)! What should we expect from Travis Etienne? And then let's highlight some TPRR standouts like A.J. Brown (18:18). Can he be WR1 in Fantasy? And Jacob will tell you why T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift could be poised for big Fantasy seasons (26:40) ... Ja'Marr Chase (38:10) and Diontae Johnson (40:40) could be in line for heavy targets. Find out why we can compare Johnson to Michael Thomas. And finally, let's get into another advanced stat and talk about Najee Harris and how he fits in Pittsburgh (47:10) ... Email us at [e-mail] 'Fantasy Football Today' is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts, Castbox, and wherever else you listen to podcasts. Follow our FFT team on Twitter: @FFToday, @AdamAizer, @JameyEisenberg, @daverichard, @heathcummingssr, @ctowerscbs, @BenSchragg Watch FFT on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCviK78rIWXhZdFzJ1Woi7Fg/videos Join our Facebook group https://www.facebook.com/groups/FantasyFootballToday/ Sign up for the FFT newsletter https://www.cbssports.com/newsletter You can listen to Fantasy Football Today on your smart speakers! Simply say "Alexa, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast" or "Hey Google, play the latest episode of the Fantasy Football Today podcast." To hear more from the CBS Sports Podcast Network, visit https://www.cbssports.com/podcasts/ To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Touchdown. Oh, he's done it again. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, Heath, and Beck. Here we go, everybody. Welcome to the show. This is Fantasy Football Today on Monday, May 17th. I'm Adam Azer, and I'm joined by Jamie Eisberg, whatever, and Jacob Gibbs. Jacob Gibbs is back to drop some serious stats, advanced stats. Yes, Jamie is here as well. Targets per outrun, that's the main one we're going to drop some serious stats, advanced stats. Yes, Jamie is here as well.

Targets per outrun. That's the main one we're going to be talking about today. But also, he's going to tell you about a running back who really struggled last year when he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage. And now he's playing behind a really bad offensive line. Who are we talking about? Jamie, first of all, hi. How are you? I hate you. Find out later why Jamie hates me right now. And Jacob, welcome back, man. How are you doing? Good, man. I'm excited to be here.

Excited to talk some football. It's been a while. You're going to have to deal with the shrapnel of me yelling at him. It's a pretty normal thing. Yeah, I'm excited to talk about these stats here. Jacob is a data analyst for Sportsline. You can follow him on Twitter at JAGibbs underscore 23. At JAGibbs

underscore 23. And he has awesome, he tweets awesome stats all the time. But on Sportsline, you can read the article, especially the Targets Per Route Run article. It's really interesting stuff. And it's very affordable. Just there it pays for itself if you want to do some gambling or win some fantasy money so go to sportsline.com give us a quick explanation of yards per route run and

and why it's more sorry targets per route run targets per route run and why it's more important than just targets uh so i don't know if I would say it's necessarily more important than targets because raw targets, uh, correlate the strongest with raw fantasy points. All right. Um, but if you really do,

if you want to really get granular with it, uh, targets per route run correlates higher, uh, with fantasy points per route run, even than targets does with raw fantasy points. So like, if you're looking at,

if you, if you have a player who you know is going to be on the field running routes, then targets per outrun is the most important stat. But, you know, sometimes that's not the case. And so that's when targets would be more important. But it's like Chase Claypool is a really good example. His targets per outrun is actually the highest of any rookie in the last like four years.

But he wasn't on the field a ton last year. And so that didn't result in a ton of high raw target totals, but in the games where he wasn't being limited or potentially this year, if he's not limited, we could see actually pretty high target totals because of his per route numbers. But ultimately it's just a representation of a player's ability to demand targets from his quarterback. It's really simple. It just displays the percentage of his routes, um, on which he was targeted. Um, and so it is real simple, but I think that's, I mean, that's important. That's the name of the game is getting volume. And you like to see a trend with young receivers where their targets per route run

is going up and that's a really good sign, right? Yeah. I think that is the most actionable way to use the data is you can compare first or second year receivers and the trajectory that they're on to other receivers that we've seen in the past that have had a similar type of trajectory and then broken out. And so we'll go through a couple of anecdotal examples like that of some guys that I'm pretty excited for. But yeah, I think that's probably the best way to use the data. All right. Just real quick, just a teaser before we get into it.

Tell us one player that you're really excited for when you use that data, targets per route run. Well, it's definitely AJ Brown. I mean, we'll talk about him at length, of course. But AJ Brown, targets per route run is one of many data points that are pointing to a huge season for AJ Brown. But I think it's really probably the strongest one. And it makes sense that it is something he could maximize this year with the situation going in.

But yeah, I'm super excited. Do you want to just dive right into him and the comparison? No, we have some other things, some housekeeping to take care of. By the way, with AJ. Adam, are we going to call Jacob baby Ben Gretsch or Ben Gretsch Jr. from now on? I don't know. I feel like he takes it to another level. Shracker, what do you think?

I would never say that. Different, yeah. A different level. A different level. Maybe we should have had Ben Gretsch on, a surprise guest. That would be fun. Yeah, we got to get him back on.

Yeah, by the way, AJ Brown... I only say that because Ben has a man crush on AJ Brown. Oh, yeah. Oh, okay. I thought it was kind of a statsy thing. Yes, he does have a man crush on him. No, no, no. AJ Brown. AJ Brown is poised to break this trend. There's only been one wide receiver in the last six

seasons that's finished top 12 in PPR on an offense that was bottom five in pass attempts. And the Titans are bottom five in pass attempts every single year. And there's only been one guy who's done it in the last six years. That was Doug Baldwin. That was back in 2015. So Brown was wide receiver seven per game.

He did not quite crack the top. He only played 14 games. He was 14th in PPR last year overall. All right, so we'll get into him. It is PGA week, PGA Championship week. The First Cut podcast has you covered for golf's second major. Join our cast and crew live every single day for the 2021 PGA Championship at the Ocean Course just outside Charleston, South Carolina.

And from DFS previews to worthwhile wagers and even round-by-round recaps, the First Cut has it. So find the First Cut on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and even live on YouTube. That's cool. Yeah. Pretty soon you'll be able to watch a lot of podcasts live on YouTube.

I'll tell you that later. Trivia question. Oh, wait, wait, wait. I can't forget. I have an important announcement that I forgot to make on Friday. And I meant to be that you drop something without telling shut up. I'll tell you now. We did an Apple podcast mailbag on Friday. And if some of you left Apple podcast comments and you were like, hey, why didn't you read my question? I read them

on the Friday episode of Fantasy Football Today in 5. And I don't want to leave you hanging. If you leave those 5-star reviews, we really appreciate it and I want to get to your questions. So, Hurricane Bosco 26, Fantasy Kins North of Philly, Brian VG, Wake Up 23.

If you're thinking, why didn't you read my question? I read it on the Friday episode of Fantasy Football Today in five. And Dave, I believe it was, answered the question. So that's the answer. Okay, trivia question. He meant to tell you guys that he was going to do it. And then he did it.

But then didn't tell you. Trivia question. Okay, since the start of 2017, this player leads qualified receivers in yards after catch per reception. Yards after the catch per reception. Since 2017, this player leads qualified receivers in yards after the catch per reception. Who is it? Now, Jamie, I think I've got a pretty decent guess at this. What about you? I don't. I'll say Will Fuller.

Okay, I'm going to say Juju Smith-Schuster. Juju is a decent guess. I don't think he performed quite as well last year. No, no. Last year was a killer. But you said since 2017, that was his rookie season. I know he's had some really big plays in his career. So that was my guess, Juju.

Yeah. So it is even more obscure than either of those. It's Mecole Hardman, which I don't think anyone would expect. And I think there is kind of a common misconception about me cool that he's a deep ball only guy or deep ball reliant guy and really he's been used as a playmaker in Kansas City and so I just wanted to bring that up as somebody watches you know every Chiefs game like I actually am still pretty bullish on Hardman he's really yeah I really I don't understand why people have given up on him so early. He was so young.

And, like, yeah, he didn't produce in his first couple years. But, like, he's on a Super Bowl-continuing team that plays a player who doesn't make as many mistakes, is a better blocker, is a better pass-rider-runner. I get that. But, like, now he's in his third year, and their actions indicate that they believe that he's ready to play a larger role. I'm pretty excited for him.

And he's really good with the ball in the sands. We just did a startup dynasty mock draft. I don't know if we're going to talk about that at some point, Adam, but it's a 1QB draft. I actually drafted all three Chiefs receivers in that league, Tyreek, Mikko, and Demarcus Robinson. And I think it's worth pointing out that, first off, Hardman is cheap for what the upside could bring because you could get him almost in a double digit round certainly

after round eight and if you do have anything more than a 15 round draft especially if you don't have to draft a defense or a kicker i think taking a shot on robinson is worth it too, just in case he's Sammy Watkins. I'm talking Sammy Watkins, 2019, you know? So, uh, those two guys are just free.

Essentially Hardman, the ceiling is, is much bigger for him. So that's the guy you want, but you know, Robinson also is somebody just worth taking a flyer on because as Jacob just said, their actions have told you that they're not looking for,

uh, somebody out of house. They're looking for guys and, and even Pringle to Byron Pringle too. If're not looking for somebody out of house. They're looking for guys. And even Pringle, too. Byron Pringle, too, if you're looking for something really deep. So all three of those guys are just free. By the way, for the record, Jacob, Will Fuller was a pretty bad guess, right? Yeah, he's more of a point-of-catch guy and then get tackled.

But, I mean, he does have some big plays, so I would expect his number to actually be decently high because he gets somewhere, he just catches and runs away from people. Yeah, but J he does have some big plays, so I would expect his number to actually be decently high because he gets somewhere, he just catches and runs away from people. Yeah, but Juju was better. It was a better guess. Adam, if I continually make you look bad, it's bad for you.

I want to make you look better. Here's the tweet of the day. Tweet of the day from Jamie Eisenberg. I shouldn't be surprised, but at Adam Azer did it again. We'll explain on today's podcast. I made a mistake. I'm sorry.

Jamie, these things happen. So, Jacob, just so you know, and the people that are listening to our show religiously, they know this, but Adam and I share a fantasy baseball team together. Okay. And Adam likes to make moves at times without telling me. But I thought we were past this after the debacle that started our season where he changed the team name without telling me.

And made several moves, including finishing the draft without telling me. Oh, finishing the draft. I took a catcher with our last pick. Sorry, I picked up Carlos Rodon without telling you, who is like our best player. As you can see, he's a little bit more triggered about this than I am. But in any event, so last night we're texting about our team to make any roster moves. And he says, let's drop, let's drop a third baseman.

Okay. You have to say who it is. Escobar. Eduardo Escobar. Because we have Rendon coming back. So why do we need another third baseman? And despite the fact that he's coming off a good week and a good weekend. No, he's coming off one good game.

He wants to drop him. So I said, why don't we see if we can trade him first? To which Adam literally replies, we don't have to make a decision on this tonight. We can wait until tomorrow because we usually open waivers to make free ad drops start of the week. To which I wake up and see the email of the transactions that adam has dropped him yeah after he literally had just said we can wait on this we don't have to make a decision right now so i texted him i said hey what happened why did you drop escobar and in the in And in the time of this conversation,

I did an on-the-block to our league to try and trade Escobar. Yeah, I messed up. I put in a claim to drop Escobar and then Jamie was like, well, why don't we try to trade him? Don't drop him. And then I cancelled the claim, but I forgot that I had actually put

in two claims for two different players and I only cancelled one of them. So I dropped Escob but we got him back we got him back it's okay thank you this this story is making things make a lot more sense for me in the last uh mock draft we did adam was like jacob we should do a team together i was like oh yeah that sounds fun and jamie's like don't do it that's true we like all the same players. That's true. We should do a team together. But every move I've made other than this one has been good. And Jamie couldn't even remember Escobar's first name. So I don't think... We also, we were

6-2, so we played two matchups a week. We were 6-2, and he goes, oh, our team is so unbeatable. To which, after the fact, we got crushed for two weeks in a row, and then we split the last week. So we're now 1-3 since his proclamation of our team being unbeatable. I like to instill confidence in my team. I think that's an important aspect of fantasy that people don't talk about.

Talk up your team. Give them some confidence. All right, let's do injuries, news, and notes. Urban Meyer was talking about Travis Etienne. He said, worst-case scenario, Etienne is a running back with the skill set of a wide receiver. Best-case scenario is he's a hybrid player who does both. That's what they're hoping for in Jacksonville. But they're talking about him, Jamie, like he's a wide receiver. What do you make of, you know, Urban Meyer's comments on Etienne?

I read the story in The Athletic today by Andy Staples. Does a great job for them. And Andy and I went to college together. Uh, he, he basically outlined that, you know, urban is trying to find another Percy Harvin. He's trying to find another Curtis Samuel. He's trying to find a guy that can do a few different things and just be a one trick pony essentially. So he doesn't just want ETN to play running back. So it's a strange thing to say about a player who is so successful and obviously if he lines up a running back and catch passes so it doesn't really make much sense about where he plays but um i think the bigger question is are they going to use james robinson a little bit more than maybe we expect despite the fact that they drafted etn in the first round of 25th overall so

i think if you're in the james robinson camp this is going to make you a little bit more hopeful uh i still think etn is going to lead them in touches, whether that means he's going to lead them in carries. That's the question. So I wouldn't back off of drafting ETN in the round four, five ish range, depending on the format you're playing in. This I think is going to help him in PPR and help his reception total. But you know, he was a 48 catch guy, I think his final year at Clemson. And he's increased his catch total every year of his career in college. So he's got

that type of ability. And I think it's going to be fun to watch how this whole thing plays out. So I wouldn't necessarily read too much into it, but you know, if we get to training camp and it's James Robinson as their lead running back and ETN and kind of this hybrid role, you know, maybe then you change your tune. Okay. So ETN, let's say he's a fourth round pick right now in a 12 team league and robinson let's say with this news well what round would you would you think that robinson would have to go in to become a better value all of a sudden than travis etn so etn in the fourth i'd rather have robinson in the what eighth i guess in terms of value i was thinking, yeah. Okay. Andy Dalton's going to get first-team reps with the Bears when they start. Yeah, yeah.

When they start OTAs next week, exactly. Vic Fangio not naming a favorite for the Broncos quarterback job. That's a 50-50 battle right now. Tom Brady said his off-season knee surgery was actually pretty serious. Bruce Arians did not. Bruce Arians said it was minor, but Brady said it was serious and that he was taking care of his knee every week last season. Giants news. They signed

Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Clement. I'm assuming this does not matter. Are you excited? Giant guy? Nope. You mean the giant guy, Kelvin Benjamin? They'll be using him as a tight end, it seems. Jacob, who is going to be the better tight end? Kelvin

Benjamin or Tim Tebow? Oh my gosh, I don't want to answer this question. Tebow has a better chance of making the team, you would think. And the Giants were using Kadarius Toney mostly in the slot during rookie camp, which is interesting. I guess that would bump Sterling Shepard outside or

keep him outside. They had Golden Tate last year. And Amonra St. Brown. The shoeless place? Shoeless Caderius Tony. Can we stop with the Gators stuff? That's enough already. Amonra St. Brown lined up inside

and outside during rookie camp. So that's cool. Do you see what he said also? No. He is remembering, I guess, or is going to keep track of all the 15 wide receivers who were drafted ahead of him. Oh, wow. He's the first person who ever said that.

To which there were some funny memes about... God, why am I forgetting her name? On Game of Thrones. And she would list off the... Oh, Arya? Oh, Arya, yeah. Oh, my gosh. Oh, Aria, yeah. Oh my gosh. Real quick TV thing.

Mayor of Easttown was freaking terrific last night. Best episode of the season. It is a great show. And there's only one episode left, I think. So get on that on HBO. Mayor of Easttown. It's that good. Hey on that on HBO, uh, mayor of East town. It's that good. Um,

Hey, by the way, Jacob, I know in your, in, uh, you have a stat about slot targets, right?

Uh, yeah, yeah. Did a big article on it last year and I'll have another one coming out in, uh, June on slot targets. Very important for fantasy, but they're,

they're more valuable than outside targets. No. Yeah. By 11 or 12% on average, more, more. Yeah. Fantasy points than outside targets, no? Yeah, by 11% or 12% on average, more fantasy points than perimeter targets. That's in PPR? Yeah. And yeah, it's a little bit lower in non-PPR

because the catch rate's a lot higher on slot targets. Right. Mike McCarthy said Dak Prescott on track to practice when camp opens in July, and Washington signed safety Bobby McCain, who was with the Dolphins last year, and they traded Ryan Kerrigan, a longtime edge rusher for the Washington football team.

They traded him to the Eagles. Look at all this division trading. Dallas giving the 10th pick to the Eagles. Washington giving Ryan Kerrigan to the Eagles. I hate the Eagles. Targets per route run. Here we go. Why are you so excited about A.J. Brown,

and why are you drawing comparisons to Devontae Adams, at least in targets per route run here we go why are you so excited about aj brown and why are you drawing comparisons to davante adams at least in targets per route run yeah so in terms of just like steady year over year uh improvement in targets for outrun adams is really the prototype um in 2017 his rate was 21.4 and in 2018 that went up to 24.8 which is a top 10 number and then in 2019 i kind of flew under the radar a little bit because he only played 12 games, but his target super outrun rate was all the way up to 29%, which is like your own league. It's like him and Michael Thomas, basically. And then in 2020, it got all the way up to 31.5%, which is the highest mark of any player since we

have the data available in 2017. And really, you know, we all kind of knew that he had the perfect storm going into 2020 last year, just really had access to as many targets as he could realistically demand. And I think we have a really similar situation with Brown here in 2021. So his 2019 and 2020 rates are almost identical to what we saw from Adams in 2017 and 18. And I think there's a chance that we could see him go from that 24, 25% rate up to like 29 or 30% this year. We actually saw him do it last year during the second half of the season, his rate was up to 27%. And then he had an elite 28.2% rate in the final five games. So we've seen some glimpse of his ability to do this. And that was even with Corey Davis and John of his ability to do this. And that was

even with Corey Davis and Johnny Smith still on the roster. And with those guys gone and only replaced by Josh Reynolds, I would think that we really might see a massive target total from Brown this year. And he's of course been one of the most efficient per target guys in the NFL. So like if he does jump to 29%, just say that last year he had a 29% target per outrun rate instead of 25%, that would have been an additional 17 targets. And with his per target fantasy point rate, that would have been an additional 42 fantasy points, which would have had him placed as a wide receiver for even with just 14 games played. So obviously you see, I mean, that's kind of a dubious extrapolation in terms of the, you know, per target rates. But like that gives you an idea of how high the upside would be if things play out this way.

This A.J. Brown we're talking about and that you're saying he would have been wide receiver for with that increase in targets per outrun, even in even full PPR. Yeah. Oh, my. Because, yeah, I mean, he's I think, Jamie, when you look at the elite wide receivers, he's the one, I don't know if you could say Tyree kill, but you know, I think people know how they feel about Tyree kill, but, but he's a kind of like non PPR versus PPR. How are people going to feel about it? You have him with third and non PPR, AJ Brown. Yep. Fourth and PPR fourth and PPR. So yeah. That's that's if Devante Adams stays on the Packers. Right. I mean, Aaron Adams stays on the Packers. I mean, Aaron Rodgers

stays on the Packers. The PPR one is hard, I think, for me anyway, because he hasn't been a big catch guy. He was on pace for 80 catches last year, and that's not a very high number. There has only

been, I think, one wide receiver in the last 10 years to be a top five PPR wide receiver with fewer than 80 catches. I want to say it's 80 or fewer catches. So that's what he was on pace for in 16 games last year, 80 catches. And even with how great he was, he was only wide receiver only. He was wide receiver seven on a per-game basis in PPR. So, you know, Jamie, was that difficult for you with A.J. Brown to put him ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, put him ahead of Michael Thomas,

Justin Jefferson, in full PPR when they really could have 20 to 30 more catches than him? I mean, you're hoping, I'm sure Jacob would probably say the same thing. You're hoping that this is the season where that changes, you know, where he is a hundred catch guy and not just factoring in the 17th game. You know, you're looking at what this receiving core looks like. And I like Josh Reynolds. I think he's got, you know, plenty of upside as a sleeper and Anthony Ferks are same thing, but they're,

they're asking those two guys to step into some pretty prominent roles. And, you know, Corey Davis is, you know know production last year is was was pretty prominent uh they also lost adam humphries you know i know desker patrick has an opportunity to step in as as the third guy this is a terrible receiving core on paper and so it's it's the same thing that we talk about with the tight ends we don't really talk about this with the receivers as much uh maybe because we don't have to because it should be obvious but when you have a a playmaker of his caliber and the targets that he should see um you know yes they're not going to be in the upper half of past attempts but they should throw in his direction enough that he could

potentially be in top five in targets i don't think he's going to lead the league in targets. I don't think he's going to be, you know, 180 target guy, but he's going to be north of 120, which is usually the starting point. And so let's say it's now 130, you know, when you factor in the 17th game, I'm hoping he's going to be north of 150. And, you know, while this defense is being rebuilt and hopefully will be better, they still could be in some shootouts. And we just don't know what would happen if Derrick Henry misses any stretch of games. Do they change the focus

of what their offense is? There's also a new play caller, you know, and I know they're going to keep things the same because it's a guy that's in house. But, you know, if Downing decides he wants to open up the offense a little bit, you know, that 10%, 20%, whatever increase it may be in throwing the ball, that could certainly help AJ BrownJ. Brown. But I think everybody looks at it and says, here's the upside, and Jacob now is giving you some additional data to put toward that. He may not be wide receiver three or four, depending on how it's going to finish,

and those other guys may be better. And I'm going to guess ADP is probably going to say that those guys are going to get drafted ahead of him, which makes total sense. But if you're looking at what the ceiling is, I think A.J. Brown's ceiling could be wide receiver one. He's got that type of thing. Well, in full PPR, wide receiver one,

that's, I guess, my only question is, in non-PPR, there's no doubt. And he's so safe, right? He's going to dominate targets. He's got a super high touchdown rate. So, Jacob, I don't even know what to do with that. You look at his touchdowns. I don't have it right in front of me, but in the last two years,

compare his touchdowns to DeAndre Hopkins' touchdowns, and he's probably doubled him or something. He could come close. The targets are probably fairly similar, if not, actually, more for Hopkins, right? Yeah.

Yeah, so, right. What about the touchdown rate, if you want to get into that? What could go wrong for A.J. Brown, is I guess what I'm trying to say. It's hard to make a case he's super safe. Yeah, I mean, touchdowns could definitely come down. I think it's definitely possible, though, that he is just like an outlier, similar to Tyreek Hill or someone like that. And this offense has proven to be a bit of an outlier as well um in terms of efficiency but that that could regress some um especially with them losing two uh you know above average weapons

so i guess that is the downside but um yeah other than that he really does seem like one of the safer receivers you're going to get in that range and i i agree with jamie i think he does have the upside to be wide receiver one okay so sorry so situation like you know if you recall adam um when keenan allen coming off of his rookie season and i i know i've mentioned this before but like mike mccoy was the coach of the chargers at the time and when i spoke to him about how does you know keenan build off of year one to year two. And he said, he's the guy. Now the targets on his back, everybody knows what's coming for him. And he struggled a little bit in year two.

And it was also the, the return of Malcolm Floyd, you know, coming back from injury. This is not the case. AJ Brown has proven himself now from his rookie year to his sophomore season. Yeah. There was no step back. There was step forward.

And so, you know, he's used to attention. He's used to the top defensive back. He's to you know additional coverage it may increase a little bit especially if the other guys don't step up but you know he's played in this role before and you have to account for the run game first for tennessee so that obviously opens things up for him in the passing game okay yeah last two seasons so last two seasons this is just 190 targets for A.J. Brown and 19 touchdowns. You can do the math there. For Hopkins, 310 targets, 220 more targets, and 13 touchdowns. Six fewer touchdowns.

So hopefully A.J. Brown can keep that up, and I'd like to see that number obviously go up for DeAndre Hopkins. Okay, let's talk about the Detroit Lions. Targets per route run. You think TJ Hawkinson and DeAndre Swift could have nice seasons here. And I know Jamie's really high on Hawkinson. But let's talk about Hawkinson

because it's kind of interesting. Targets per route run. Well, his yards per target is just... It's not even close to the four tight ends that people might take ahead of him, whether they go with Andrews or not. I mean, he's just kind of,

I don't know, lousy in yards per target, disappointing in that short yardage target, you know? Um, and I think that's actually a reason to be excited for both these guys is they're short yardage targets. And this is going to be an offense,

you know, led by Jared golf. That's going to be leaning on the short yardage guys. Um, and so I, I don't know. I just think that's really important. Going from Matthew Stafford to golf is going to be leaning on the short yardage guys. And so I don't know. I just think that's really important. Going from Matthew Stafford to Goff is going to be a huge change. Stafford had the fifth highest ADOT in the league in 2020,

while Goff's was the third lowest. And I think these two particularly, and possibly Amon Ross St. Brown, is going to prove everybody wrong. But I think they're the ones that are going to soak up these targets, not necessarily the field stretchers like Perryman and Tyrell Williams. So with Hawkinson specifically, Goff loves throwing to tight ends. 25% of his pass attempts have gone to tight ends over the past two seasons, which is up from 21% in Detroit during that time.

And that's come while playing in an offense that doesn't even allow tight ends to run routes that often. They use them as blockers more than Detroit. But yeah, when both when Tyler Hibby and Jerry Lever actually ran routes, they were targeted much more heavily on a per route rate than even Hawkinson, who had a pretty good target per route run rate in 2020. For reference, that is so interesting. I'm sorry to cut you off because I knew you were going to bring that up, that golf likes throwing to his tight ends. And I think people might hear that and be like, what? Because it seems, you know, basically,

there hasn't been a good fantasy tight end on the Rams in the four years that Goff has started, except for one six-game stretch for Higby at the end of 2019. But no, I just wanted to highlight what you said, that the Rams tight ends didn't run a lot of routes. But when they did, they got more targets per route run than Hawkinson did last year. Right. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. They were actually like among the higher tight ends, especially Higby on a per route run basis. And then obviously that's with a dominant slot presence in Cooper Cup who's taken up intermediate targets.

And Robert Woods is a short yardage target as well or has been these last couple years um and then you go to Detroit where there's not nearly that type of presence to compete with for targets you know what I mean um so yeah uh Hawkinson's per route run rate last year was 20.8 um which was actually identical to what Travis Kelsey's rate was in his second season and what's really impressive about that is that Hawkinson did it at the age of 23. He was really young coming in. Uh, whereas Kelsey was 26 when he did that. Um, so I'm, I'm not saying he's going to become Travis Kelsey, but like he has so much opportunity here and really they might've brought in close to the perfect quarterback for, uh, the type of routes that he likes to run. Um, so I think there are tons of reasons to be excited about Hawkinson, especially in in ppr i don't

think that the ceiling is super high um because like you've talked about he has struggled a little bit with efficiency and we could see that with more defensive attention uh going his way this year because they really don't have a lot else in terms of pass catching options but um just in terms of like target potential i think he could be looking at 120 30 targets which just seems crazy um but yeah i'm really really excited for him do you happen to know what the targets per route one are for the chargers last year you have that in front of you for the uh who specifically on the chargers for hunter henry just okay and anthony wins offense yeah um yeah i can find that real quick. And so the next guy is DeAndre Swift. And so his targets per run rate was super encouraging. Listen to this list. Since 2017,

here are the players who were targeted on at least 23% of the routes and were 21 years old or younger. We've got Justin Jefferson, 23%, Christian McCaffrey, 23.7%, Saquon Barkley, 24%, and DeAndre Swift, 24.8%. Wow, that is a pretty good list. It's a good list to be on. Yeah. Jamie, let me just ask you about DeAndre Swift. It seems like Heath is super high on him. I'm not sure how you compare it to Heath in terms of DeAndre Swift. It seems like Heath is super high on him. I'm not sure how you compare to Heath in terms of DeAndre Swift. Anthony Lynn always gets his running backs involved in the passing game, and that's a great thing. He also is kind of a, is it fair to say he's a dual back,

RBBC kind of coach? Do you think that's going to be the case? What kind of workload do you think DeAndre Swift's going to get? I think he's going to lead the team in touches, but you do bring up a point that concerns me is, you know, the signing of Jamal Williams, you know, the fact that they released Kerryon Johnson, I think is a good thing. But the signing of Jamal Williams, who doesn't have the upside of DeAndre Swift, but can play a similar game like DeAndre Swift because of what he can do as a pass catcher. Again,

not the same type of player, but can do the same type of things. So I wonder what they're going to do with Jamal Williams, how much they're going to use Jamal Williams. And then I, the thing I fear with DeAndre Swift is I think he's going to be a fantastic pass catcher, but what is the touchdown potential?

What is the yardage potential? The offensive line clearly is going to be good with the addition of Penny Sewell. But the team's going to be bad. And the passing game, while I agree with Jacob, I love TJ Hawkinson, it's probably going to struggle. So, you know, do they score enough points? This could be one of the worst offenses in football. Yeah. Aside from these two guys. And so, you know, I think Swift is a very good round to pick. It's just he's in that for me, that kind of mess of guys that you could rank in any way possible of Swift, of Akers, of Najee Harris. You want to throw Clyde Edwards, a layer in there, Joe Mixon, you know, Nick Chubb and PPR.

They're all kind of in that same range of, you know, the swing through, you know, 18 overall. So, you know, anywhere from 10 to 18 overall that you can justify taking them as high as 10 or you can probably wait to get them in the back end of round two. But I mean, I love DeAndre Swift in PPR. I'm a little bit more concerned about him in non-PPR just because of the touchdowns. Jacob, how would you rank DeAndre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, and Cam Akers? So I think Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers just bring significantly more upside.

And so I think I would have to have those two ahead of him, but I do think for PPR, I think Swift actually has the safest floor of that group. So I guess it kind of depends on if you already have another running back in your team or whatever, you know, what you're, what you're going for there if you want upside or not, but I think I would have him behind those two. Okay. Did you get your Hunter Henry?

Yeah. So his, uh, I thought this was the case. He started per run rate. Wasn't very high. Cause he actually ran quite a few routes. Um, and so like a tight end that is,

uh, it's really important to just be aware of how their team uses them. Cause some players are going to have really inflated per route run rates when that really isn't that actionable because they're not running a lot of routes. You know what I mean? Like George Kito's rates, like insane. It's like as high as Devante Adams,

but like he's not running quite enough routes for him to have that type of an impact. Um, but Henry was, uh, 11th among tight ends, 18%. But like, I mean, he was higher than Logan Thomas and Robert Tunyon and, you know, Dalton Schultz and people like that. So like it, it wasn't low. It just wasn't super high. Okay. All right.

We're going to take a break here on Fantasy Football Today. I'm not going to say there's a better prospect than Henry. So, you've got to assume that that matters. Yeah. And he's already shown an ability to be targeted at a higher rate earlier in his career than Henry. I was just curious, you know, looking at Anthony Lynn's guy. Yeah. You know, bringing that to Detroit.

Yeah. I just don't know how much I guy bringing that to Detroit. Yeah. I just don't know how much I want to invest in Detroit. I think that's fair. My issue with Swift and my issue with Hawkinson and I like, I mean, you've all heard me.

I draft Hawkinson around 60th overall if I have one of those Swigging picks. But those are two guys that are worth investing in though. I hope so, but I'm so sick of this Detroit. Amir Abdullah, I was excited about going into his second year. Kerryon Johnson, I was excited about going into his second year. Yeah, but Swift is a different, again, different prospect.

He's shown you something. Jacob just gave you the numbers about his age versus what his production could be. And I think when you say investing in Detroit, you know, gave you the, the, the numbers about his age versus what his production could be. Um, and, and I think, you know, when you say investing in Detroit,

look there, there's two guys that are going to get drafted in the first six rounds and we just named them. Then there's two guys you take flyers on essentially Jamal Williams and Amon Ross St. Brown. And then there are other, the other,

the last two guys would be Tyrell and Perryman, maybe Cephas, but those are throwaway picks. You know, if they do anything for you the first couple weeks, you'll hold on to them. I don't care about that. I'm happy to invest in Brashad Perryman with my last pick and see what happens.

I don't care about that. It's do I want to spend a second-round pick on DeAndre Swift, who had 10 touchdowns in 13 games, Detroit running backs last year, 17 rushing touchdowns. That's a huge number. That's more than they had, or that's as many as they had in the two previous years combined. They have not, I don't know the last time they reached 17. It's been a really

long time. So that was weird. They're usually a bad offense that has very few rushing touchdowns among their running backs. And I don't know how, I don't know what the split's going to be in terms of the carries for DeAndre Swift. So I am worried about his touchdowns. He's going to get at least 60% at the worst case scenario.

Yeah. But the guys that you're drafting around him are probably going to get 80% to 90% of the carry. Some of them. Cam Akers, maybe. Jonathan Taylor. But that's why he's one of the guys that his value changes depending on format. So like Jacob said,

his PPR value can be comparable to Jonathan Taylor and Cam Akers. In non-PPR, you'd be crazy to take him over those two guys. Right, yeah. Well, and then there's half PPR, which is always tricky. And why am I bringing up Jonathan Taylor? I know basically everyone's going to draft Taylor over Swift,

but actually Heath has Swift one spot ahead of Jonathan Taylor in his PBR rankings. So there's that. Okay, now we're going to take a break. Jamar Chase, Najee Harris. How are we going to talk about them? They're rookies. Jacob's got some great stats for you that we can relate to these rookies, and we'll also talk about Deontay Johnson when we come back on Fantasy Football today.

Whether in the game or in life, the right coverage can make all the difference. Johnson when we come back on what truly matters. Find their products through banks, credit unions, and associations, or visit SecurianCanada.ca. Securian Canada, insurance designed for life. Did you know that across Ontario, utility damage happens 19 times a day? That's over 4,222 incidents a year. Don't let your next dig be one that causes costly delays or safety risks. Before you break ground, make it a point to request a locate. It's not just the law.

It's a step to keep your team and community safe. Visit OntarioOneCall.ca and avoid unnecessary damages to get the job done right. Data sourced from the ORCGA 2023 Dirt Report. All right, we are back on FFT, and let's get right into the Bengals and their first-round pick, rookie Jamar Chase. And why are we talking about Jamar Chase with this? I just think that there's tons of upside here with Chase.

If we assume that he's going to slide right into the role that they tried to have AJ Green play last year, that was a super high volume role. And I think he will be able to perform much more efficiently within that role than AJ Green did. So Green ranked 11th in the NFL in air yards, which was ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, AJ Brown. He was slightly out targeted by Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, but he still had over a hundred targets. And he also led the team in end zone targets and ranked 10th among wide receivers in end zone targets. So he was used downfield on, you know, high, you know, deep ball, high value fantasy targets and used frequently in the end zone as a contested catch guy. But he just really struggled. I mean, Joe Burrow to AJ

Green was the least efficient, you know, connection of any quarterback receiver in the NFL zone as a contested catch guy, but he just really struggled. I mean, Joe Burrow to AJ Green was the least efficient connection of any quarterback receiver in the NFL last year. But that didn't stop them from throwing to him. He was the first read on Joe Burrow's attempts on 59% of the routes that he ran, AJ Green was. And that's just a 10 game sample. But for reference, Calvin Ridley was the only player in the NFL with a higher first read rate um davante adams was only 51 so like that's a really really high number and uh in 2019 we saw jamar chase be the first read uh 56 percent of the time for joe burrow so he fits you know perfectly as the type of receiver who could maximize on these, these downfield targets. And I mean, they invested in them to show that they believe that that is, you know,

the role that he could play. So like, I'm inclined to believe them unless the ADP really gets out of control. I'm excited about all the Cincinnati pass catchers, but to me, the other guys profile is more complimentary type of guys. And given the way, you know,

Cincinnati did invest in chase. That makes me think that they might see them that way as well it makes me think that they might see chase as the alpha here um and the role is there so jamie do you remember i can look it up do you remember off the top of your head where the three guys went the three bangles wide receivers went in the way i'm trying to look it up post mock draft. Do you remember where they went? So we can compare the, I think I took T Higgins. I don't recall what I'll find.

All right. You know what I'll get. I'll come back to it. I'll come back to it. Let's go to our next guy. It's Deontay Johnson. Now, now I don't know what to make of the Steelers offense last year.

I feel like it has to be different this year. It was so strange and inefficient last year, but I know that there's something that you like about Deontay Johnson in terms of targets per route run. like it has to be different this year. It was so strange and inefficient last year, but I know that there's something that you like about Deontay Johnson in terms of targets per outrun. Yeah, I don't know what to expect from the offense either. What I do know is that Ben Roethlisberger loves throwing the ball to Deontay

Johnson. No matter how many inefficiency stats Heath brings up on Deontay, it doesn't matter. Ben's going to chuck it to Deontay. That's his guy. He was the first read on Roethlisberger's 58% of the time for Ben Roethlisberger, which trailed only Calvin Ridley and AJ Green for that 10-game stretch. And his targets per route run was 26.5%, which trailed only Devontae Adams and Keenan Allen. And the comparison that I, the closest comparison that we have, at least in terms of recent examples, is Michael Thomas, which sounds crazy.

And I'm not saying he's going to turn into Michael Thomas. But if you do look at just the trajectory from the first couple of years, it's pretty similar. So Thomas's first year was 21.4% in terms of targets per hour run. And Deontay Johnson's was 20.4%. And then the next year, they made this massive leap. Michael Thomas to 26.7%, Deontay to's was 20.4. And then the next year they made this massive leap. Michael Thomas to 26.7, Deontay to 26.5. And then we saw after that Thomas went to 28% and then all the way to 30%, which led the league.

I don't know if Deontay Johnson is going to make a similar type of leap. He does have Chase Claypool to compete with, who I think is legitimately really, really good and is going to continue to demand targets. That's not something that Michael Thomas had. But in terms of just having you know an immobile quarterback who loves to just check down to him over and over and over i think he could just continue to you know pace the league and targets or at least be near uh the top of the league um and i don't know because i i agree with you i don't i don't want to give too much weight to these stats but like at the same time i don't

want to ignore them because they're like really just screaming at us that like this is a unique type of player in terms of the ability to demand targets yeah and i do see though with the the change in the backfield you know because they didn't have james connor for so many you know stretches last year and naji should be a better pass catcher than what Connor was. Maybe not what he profiled to be, but I think what he was last year. And so, you know, if they get back to that Le'Veon Bell type of guy, which I think Najee can be that type of guy, maybe not to the same ceiling, but, you know, that type of player, then does Johnson see as many targets?

And like you said, you know, it's not just Claypool. They brought Juju back. And I think a lot of us were hoping that Juju would someplace else yeah to see dionte continue in this role but um there's there's significant mouths to feed our gibron as well you know so um are they going to continue to throw at the same level if the run game is better and more efficient yeah i really don't know i all i know is that like what he's done in terms of you know demanding the targets and being the first read which is also really important you know it does you know suggest these a an alpha receiver wide receiver one receiver and i don't think he's michael thomas or deandre hopkins but like if one

of those guys were in this offense would we be worrying at all about the complimentary pieces taking anything from them i don't think we would i think those guys get theirs and then everybody else gets theirs yeah but right but johnson obviously i know i'm not saying he is i'm but i'm saying the data says that he is developing into that right and if the drops continue how much does that play into it you know led the league in drops last year 14 yeah how much does that matter when we saw that they benched him for drops per outrun he probably was up there and drops i would have to think so yeah just to tie in because i think these two receiving cores are interesting so you asked about the draft so jac Jacob actually took Deontay Johnson in the fifth round. He was the first Steelers receiver off the board.

He went one spot ahead of Jamar Chase, who went in the fifth round as well. Jujus Mischuster was also a fifth-round pick. Chase Claypool was a sixth-round pick. Dave took him in the sixth round. And all three Bengals receivers, again, Chase was in round five. T. Higgins was in round six to Dan Schneier. I actually was torn on Cortland Sutton versus T. Higgins, but the way that I built my team, I think I talked about this,

that I wanted a number one potential as opposed to a number two. So that's why I took Sutton over Higgins. And Tyler Boyd went in round seven. So all six of the two teams worth of receivers from the AFC North went in the first seven rounds. Yeah. Yeah. Right.

So to sum that up for Cincinnati, it was chasing round five, uh, Higgins in round six, Boyd in round seven. That's easy enough. And then again, same division, all of those receivers drafted ahead of Odell Beckham. Were they drafted out of Jarvis Landry? Yes. Okay. And also, Jamie lied.

He told you he lied about taking Higgins, and he didn't. He took Sutton. He also lied when he said that Johnson was one spot ahead of Jamar Chase. Johnson was two spots ahead of Jamar Chase. So this is why you can't really believe anything that Jamie says. When he says, I drop players, I just don't even believe it. I forget about Kenny Galladay because he played on a crappy team.

No, he's not on the Lions anymore. Deontay Johnson was round five and Juju Smith-Schuster was about eight picks later in round five and then Chase Claypool was in round six. Round though.

You did? Oh, DJ Hockinson? Yeah. Yeah, so are there any of those six wide receivers that you think were bad picks in rounds five through seven? I wasn't super excited to take Deontay there, honestly. I prefer to get him a little bit later. You took Michael Thomas

in round five. Yeah. What about... High targets per outrun for Deontay. High targets per outrun for Claypool. What does that mean for Juju? I am honestly about as big of a bear as you'll see on Juju.

I just have not been encouraged at all by what we've seen in the last couple of years. And maybe it will change, but that's just like blind faith that it will and nothing, none of the data suggests that it will. He was his first, he was the first read pretty regularly when Deontay was out, but when Deontay played, it dropped dramatically. And yeah, he just wasn't targeted at a high rate. I don't know.

They basically used him like a tight end. He had like the lowest ADOT of any receiver in the league. And I think he was in like the bottom 20% of tight ends even in terms of ADOT. Like he just was, I don't know. Yes. Revolting offense. But now Najee Harris is there. Woo.

Okay. So we're not going to talk about targets per outrun with Najee Harris. We're going to talk about what happened when he was contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage in college. So tell us what you see here. And we all know... It wouldn't happen twice behind that offensive line. We all know that, yeah, the Alabama offensive line,

in terms of college, better than the Pittsburgh offensive line in terms of the NFL. So youittsburgh offensive line in terms of the nfl so you have some concern there yes yeah and it actually was a decently large sample jamie just because he had so many carries in general um but yeah i'm not i'm not sure how we should expect this to translate from college to the pros because when you get into really kind of you know obscure stats like this um for for advanced rushing It definitely does have a lot to do with the offensive line. But I know a lot of people do profile him as like an above average yards after contact guy, but the stats just don't really back that up from last year.

And so I just want to bring the point up because I think it's interesting and I think it is worth highlighting that Pittsburgh's offensive line is a real problem. So I'm curious what you guys think. So among 92 qualified backs, harris was 22nd in yards before contact for attempt which you know does point to you know the strong offensive line play um but he was just 42nd in yards after contact for attempt i think the only running back that was worse that was drafted in the first four rounds was uh travis etn actually um he really struggled to create yards in his own when he was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage

um which is definitely a troubling sign now that he's on Pittsburgh, who had the second highest percentage of rushes stuffed behind the line in 2020. So, yeah, when he on carries where contact was made at or behind the line of scrimmage, he ranked 40th among 92 running backs and adjusted yards after contact per rush. And he was 63rd in rushing expected points added, which is just an efficiency metric. And I just am a little bit concerned. I think the volume is going to be there,

and especially the receiving volume is particularly exciting for PBR formats. But I really think that rushing efficiency could be really bad behind this line. And I don't know what that's going to ultimately mean it will probably come down to touchdowns and uh his involvement as a receiver but i worry that he's gonna have a hard time getting even like a thousand rushing yards this year which is crazy for how many rushing attempts he might get well plus the 17 games i hope he'd be able to get oh yeah i don't like what you're saying because I really, really like the setup. I think you can make a case for Harris in the first round.

I think, well, and I don't think we should give too much weight to this. It's more just a point to consider. It's just something to bring up because I think it's very easy to just fall in love with Harris and the fit in Pittsburgh and all the touches that he could get, you know? But I do think there is some downside here.

Cause like if he doesn't, if he's not as involved as a receiver as we think he might be and the rushing efficiency is down, then like now, uh, is that a top 15 running back even in fantasy? I don't know. Uh, well, yeah. Jamie, what do you think here on Harris? And, and maybe not being a good fit with Pittsburgh? But I guess I had already factored in that their line stinks. I mean, I feel like you'd have to be a pretty special running back to be able to overcome this bad offensive line.

But for me, it's about he'll get all the carries. He'll get all the goal line work. He doesn't have a quarterback who's stealing his goal line work. He'll get enough catches so i just thought he would volume his way into a top 12 running back basically i think he might i think if you're dealing with offensive line this that is this bad you typically want someone actually like deandre swift i think who's very good at breaking tackles um or even david montgomery someone like that i never would just say i'd rather have david montgomery than naji harris

but like someone like that who's good at creating the extra yards. And all I'm saying is we haven't seen that from him yet. Yeah. I also don't want to rush the judgment that this is going to be a terrible offensive line. I don't think it's going to be a great offensive line, but you know, like where did they rank last year? Do you know,

Jacob terms of their, I know pro football. Oh yeah. I know where they ranked. They were the second worst run blocking line in the NFL. Right. So replacing guys may not be a bad thing it's like okay hey we brought back the same guys because you know their names you know maybe

villain the way it was done maybe pouncey really was done you know and so moving on from those guys could be a good thing um you know we may probably make the same case for the raiders they were 24th last year and they lost three guys. Maybe that's a good thing. I don't know. But I go back to something Jason LaConfora said on draft night, that they're really excited about their new offensive line options. And the young guys that they have, they're going to step into some opportunities.

So who knows? I mean, was he good in this metric? No. Does that mean he'll he good in this metric? No. Does that mean he'll be bad in this metric and call it on, on the next level? Um, you brought up David Montgomery, Jacob, and that was something that we heard a lot about, you know, coming into the NFL and it didn't necessarily materialize in his rookie season because he just ran into contact too many times. So, you know, maybe the Steelers offense and their coaching staff gets their hands on them and they can tweak some things.

I don't know. I think the opportunity is what you're buying here. The things that you saw in college is what you're buying here. And so it maybe puts a little damper on taking him in the first round or taking him in the first six. But that shouldn't also scare you off to the fact like what we just talked about with this mock draft Adam last week that I got into the third round. That's just insanity. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Late in the third round too. So I just wanted to go through the

top 10 or so in yards after contact per attempt, according to pro football reference in the NFL last year, number one. So this is yards after contact per attempt. Ronald Jones was number one. I don't know if he was contacted on the 98 yard touchdown that he had. I was going to say that one definitely affected it. That's probably it. Aaron Jones was two. Devin Singletary was three.

J.K. Dobbins, four. Derrick Henry, five. And Derrick Henry had 34 broken tackles. Ronald Jones had 10. Aaron Jones had 14.

That's amazing. Dalvin Cook had 33. Anyway, J.K. Dobbins, four. Derrick Henry, five. Nick Chubb, Gus Edwards, James Robinson, Brian Hill, Wayne Gallman, and Tony Pollard tied for 10th in yards after contact per attempt.

It's an interesting list. And you probably just have to... I don't know. There just aren't that many broken tackles. That's the other thing. Devin Singletary broke nine tackles last year. He's tied for second on this list. Yards after contact per attempt. Four I don't know if that had...

Four of them came from Zach Moss trying to keep him off the field. Yeah. Broken tackles. David Montgomery had the third most broken tackles in the NFL last year behind Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. That's an impressive list. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Montgomery, Nick Chubb. That's your top four. Number five was Mike Davis.

Yep. And then Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson. I don't know what to make of these stats. They are pretty interesting. I also don't know what to make of conditional draft picks. So we talked about this on Friday. Is there ever a scenario where in a dynasty league you can trade a player

for one year as a rental and then get that player back the next year. Okay? So everybody's like, no, that's collusion. You can't do that. That's garbage.

But I don't know. What if Team A, the example was TJ Hawkinson for pick 112 in a rookie draft. Team A gives Hawkinson. Team B gets Hawkinson, gives back pick 112. Gets Hawkinson. Team B gets Hawkinson, gives back pick 112. Gets Hawkinson for all of 2021.

And the pick 112 is a 2021 pick, so it's gone. In 2022, Team A gets Hawkinson back. So what happens? Okay. So I said you can make, I've thought about this. It's very difficult. I can't think of something that I like. But let's try this. You can make a fantasy point thought about this. It's very difficult. I can't think of something that I like. But let's try this.

You can make a fantasy point benchmark for Hawkinson. You can say, if he does this, you know, that's like in the NFL. It's conditional draft pick. If he starts this many games, you get something else in return. This would be a little bit different, though. Let's say you set a fantasy point benchmark for Hawkinson. If he hits the benchmark, then Team A gets TJ Hawkinson. If he hits the benchmark, then Team A gets TJ Hawkinson

back, like it always been, and a round three pick in the rookie draft. If he doesn't hit that benchmark, doesn't have a good enough year, Team A gets Hawkinson back, and he gets a round one

rookie pick back. So he actually gets a better pick if Hawkinson back, and he gets a round one rookie pick back. So he actually gets a better pick if Hawkinson doesn't do well. And what I like about this is you are trading someone that you are actually betting against, hoping he does poorly, so you get a first round pick back the following year. And whereas if you're acquiring the player, you want him to do really well. And if you're right about him, then you only have to give up a third round pick. But that's not how real world trades think. No, it's opposite than the real world.

It's opposite than real world. But in the real world, you don't have to give the player back. That's the thing. You keep the player. But in this case, you have to give the player back. So I don't want to be too damaging for the team that has to give the player back.

So if you get... So if he thinks you're getting a first-round pick, and if he's successful, you're getting a fourth-round pick. Yeah. And obviously, you're getting the player back no matter what. But it's like you are betting against your own player. It's an interesting wrinkle. And if you're acquiring the guy, you're betting on him. And if he sucks, then not only do you have to

give him back, but you lost the first round pick. Does the... Does this have to be in writing? Yes. Yeah. Absolutely. It has to be in writing. And again, as a commissioner, if they find out about this, how happy or not concerned do you think they'll be? I mean, I think when there's

so much at stake, it's not collusion. It's not collusion because collusion is when two teams make a trade that helps one team. This is a trade that could help both teams. It just might take a year. So I personally wouldn't want to do this. It may not take a year because you're still getting one 12 on top of it.

You are, you are, but you're getting the player back, so that's just weird. But there has to be another element to it. I wouldn't like it. I don't like rental trades. I don't think they're right. But if you disagree with that, think

about this weird option here. Let's take it back a year. Let's say this is Mark Andrews, not TJ Hawkinson, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you're trading 112 for TJ Hawkinson, is Mark Andrews, not TJ Hawkinson, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And you're trading 112 for TJ Hawkinson, for Mark Andrews, with the assumption that you're getting the fourth and the first back. And 112 becomes Justin Jefferson, which was probably in his ADP. Do you, as the Hawkinson, as the person acquiring Hawkinson,

are you saying, well, I mean, you got a better return? That doesn't matter. I mean, you could put more, hey, if the player you take with 112 does this, then that's way too complicated. This is the age of trade rules. The question is, did TJ Hawkinson hit the benchmark? He finished... I'm sorry, did Mark Andrews... He finished his tight end six. He regressed. I would say he did not.

So I would say that if you traded Hawkinson, you got pick 112. I keep saying Hawkinson. If you traded Andrews, you got pick 112. You are now getting Mark Andrews back. And since he didn't do that well, you're also getting

a first round pick. So you now, the person who acquired Mark Andrews just gave up. Can you imagine if this worked out? Two first round picks for nothing. Let's just say the person who got Mark Andrews was in last place. You could be getting Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Mark Andrews back.

And you're getting Andrews back. Yes. So there might have to be some additional compensation. All right. We've got a live stream tomorrow night at 7 p.m. Eastern. Tuesday night, 7 p.m. Eastern. A live stream, youtube.com slash fantasyfootballtoday. We will see you there.

I think I kind of ran out of time for emails here, but I will save them for tomorrow's show. So if I told you I was going to try to read your email today, I did, but I'm talking that you said you're going to do something and you didn't do it. Yeah. Well,

yeah. Well, actually, Jamie, usually I say I'm not going to do something and then I do it like Eduardo Escobar. Um, it's fantasy football at cbsi.com. But thanks a lot to Jacob.

Thank you for coming on. Yeah, thanks for having me on. Good luck to you guys with all the drama with your fantasy baseball team. Thank you. Hope that goes well. Yes. We're on the right track. We're good.

And yeah, emails we'll certainly try to get to. We'll get to at some point this week. Don't worry. And yes, live stream tomorrow Tuesday night 7pm Eastern please join us we will talk to you

then and that's it Ben I'm sorry I didn't promote the live stream earlier that's totally my my bad

we'll do the top of the show tomorrow we'll make sure everybody's watching alright for Jamie and Ben and Jacob I am Adam

have a great day everybody talk to you on Tuesday